look, i love our walk-up music on "meet the press," but it's tuesday. not just any tuesday in america -- cue the music. ♪♪ there it is. ah, you know what those sounds mean. we'll start to count some votes. not yet. a few hours from now. welcome to "mtp daily," i'm chuck todd. buckle up for a big night, perhaps a late night or early morning. millions of voters will cast their ballots in the first major election of the president biden presidency. we have the governor race in virginia. democrats are trying to avoid a major upset in a place that widen won by 10 points in 2020. and that the previous democratic governor won by nine in 2017. we'll have more on why this race

matters so much nationally in a moment. voters are heading to the polls in new jersey where an incumbent democratic governor has not won re-election in 24 years. we have a bunch of mayors races coast to coast that have national implications. new york, boston, minneapolis, just to name a few. all the results tonight will be closely watched by the folks in the white house and the capitol hill. they'll be eager to learn how big of an impact is biden's declining numbers nationally been on voters voting locally. some of those answers will probably come from virginia. it's the big contest tonight. it's a dead heat and a proving ground for the party nationally. democrats chosed their campaign closed their campaign by trying to tie youngkin to trump. >> let me be clear what we won't

do is to teach our children through a lens of race, one bucket is an oppressor, one is a victim, we pit them against each other and steal their dreams. let me be clear -- let me be clear, on day one we will not have political agendas in the classroom and i will ban critical race theory. >> glenn youngkin is closing his event with donald trump in virginia where he brought the hatred, the divisiveness that donald trump brought to this country. it's a disgrace and donald trump wants to win here tomorrow night, so he can next day announce for president of the united states of america. we're going to put an end to donald trump's future plans right here, in virginia. i've beaten trump twice in virginia. tomorrow we go 3-0. >> gives you a sense of just how tied to those two narratives

both candidates are. youngkin did not hold an event with trump, and critical race theory is not even being taught in virginia schools. but the results in virginia tonight will be a collision of two things. youngkin's momentum and mcauliffe's math. let's start with a look at recent elections in virginia. this is why we're all sitting here going momentum versus the math. let me take you back to 2020 and remind you of what things looked like for the presidential race. this was the ten-point victory. notice carefully the turnout number of 4.4. the question is what will the drop off be in turnout? is it a 40% dropoff? is it 30%? the answer to that matters a lot. if you look at the gubernatorial elections of the last two cycles, 2.6 million voters in 2017. in 2016, basically they lost about 1.2 million fewer voters from the 2016 to the 2017

election here. we're flipping back and forth. i'm trying to go slowly so you can keep up with the numbers. 2013 had a bigger dropoff between the presidential race in 2012 and 2013. so you have a drop off of over 40%. terry mcauliffe won by a narrow margin. you have a dropoff closer to 30%, 35%, democrats won by a healthy margin here. this is the ball game. so tonight, the question -- we know there will be more than 2.6 million voters tonight. that, we know. the mcauliffe campaign believes they can win at basically anything 2.8 or above. the youngkin campaign says they're preparing for 3 million turnout. 3 million, it's hard to imagine how mcauliffe loses. then if he does lose under that circumstance, then there are some biden/youngkin voters. the mcauliffe campaign claims

they're winning 95% of biden voters. the youngkin campaign says they're winning some old biden voters. the proof is in the election tonight. the first place we may find out that issue about democrats from a year ago, maybe voting youngkin is going to be in this town we're about to check in with now. msnbc's chris jansing is in louden county. and with me on set is my partner for election coverage for the rest of the day and night, kristen welker. that's the question all of us have. are there -- is there such thing as a biden/youngkin voter? mcauliffe's folks don't believe it is. youngkin's folks believe louden county will tell us if they're right and mcauliffe is wrong. >> i can tell you i've met them. some people have told me that they're frustrated by what's going on in washington. the question obviously is how

many of them are there. as you look at this whole issue of math versus momentum, chuck, the math is pretty clear. i mean, look, this is a place that turned blue with the movement to the suburbs, louden county here is a place that's doubled its population in the last 20 years. i think it went up 30% in the last census. biden won here by 25%. the current governor, ralph northam by almost 20%. i just got a text from someone close to the mcauliffe campaign who sounded a little bit more optimistic. he says the early numbers they're looking at turnout show that they are going past 2017. you know that would be great news for the mcauliffe campaign. but what we have heard from youngkin and what we have actually seen on the ground and i've been here three days. i've been to a couple of young kin events, they say they have the enthusiasm. they certainly have the numbers. 1,000 people turned out at an event at the fairgrounds last

night. a lot of excitement there. they had tables set up with t-shirts and handing out bumper stickers. they say a lot of suburban voters may stay home because they're exhausted. we'll see tonight. >> we'll see. the youngkin campaign believes they can win this race and only get low 40s in loudoun county, but i had another republican swear to me they may get the high 40s. we'll all believe that if and when we see it. chris, thank you. let me go over to new jersey. rehema, the stunning stat to me is that no democratic incumbent governor won re-election since the '70s. considering how blue this is, for some election junkies they're going, wait, oh, yeah, maybe you're right.

but while phil murphy is certainly favored today, are you sensing some of the same enthusiasm issues among voters that we have gotten a bit on the democratic side in virginia or do things look pretty good for murphy in new jersey? >> chuck, it really depends on who you're talking to. we talked to a couple voters this morning. one was saying they like what murphy is saying in terms of women's issues, the climate, in terms of education. another voter was saying they can't stand what murphy is saying. they want to see more of ciattarelli. they don't like what they're hearing about vaccines and mandates. you point out something that's important in this state. that is that there's a million more democrats registered in this state than republicans. and that murphy was able to carry this state when he was elected in 2017. by a margin of what biden carried it when he was elected

last year. which way this will go, who knows. the candidates have been out panneding the pavement as if this thing is neck and neck. the ads on television have been intense for one candidate over the other. the thing you mentioned, no one has been able to do what murphy is wanting to do since we were listening to disco music and talking on rotary phones 40 years ago. >> it's still shocking to me that it's been since brendan byrne, and if you're a sports junkie, you remember the brendan byrne arena back in the day when the devils used to play hockey there. rehema ellis on the ground in new jersey, thank you. i have kristen welker here. your day job is covering the white house. >> yes. >> this political environment, they own it, whether they like it or not. we may argue did they create thisenvironment, did they inherit it? it doesn't matter. >> look at the president's

approval rating, it has sunk as we reported over the weekend. that is impacting governor mcauliffe's chances. there's no doubt about that. what is the white house bracing for? they already started the spin behind the scenes saying mcauliffe is running his own race. people in virginia are not paying attention to what we're doing in washington. the reality is that's not true. i've been talking to votes who are watching what's happening and not happening. there's a sense of malaise and frustration that more is not getting done. i think what you will see is this full-throated attempt on wednesday or whenever we get results. whatever they may be. we know it will likely be close to try to spin this and say, look, president biden has his agenda and the voters of virginia are paying attention to the issues there. >> let's pull out of virginia for a bit. what's intriguing is if you look at the totality of the races on the ballot, the buffalo mayor,

the referendum in minneapolis or virginia, it's a big test for progressive politics today. >> that's right. >> we'll get this test on the ballot in buffalo. we'll get this test about refunding the police. i don't want to call it de-funding, minneapolis' referendum would create a new police department -- >> public safety department. >> it would have police officers, public peace officers. that whole framing. in many ways, progressives on capitol hill are nervous they'll have fingers pointed at them. it looks like we're seeing an ideological test. >> i think we are. it's fascinating because the contours of the debate have shifted. in the past year, think about the debate over policing, it had more momentum in the ways of george floyd and in those early days when protesters took to the streets. now what's happening is crime rates are going up in cities --

>> six months ago lawmakers were figuing out how to run -- >> in new york, eric adams has a sizable lead right now, but he's a law and order candidate, if you will, a former police captain who made that a core of his messaging. what's fascinating, and just take the race in buffalo where you have india walton, the more progressive candidate -- >> won a primary over the incumbent mayor. >> who is now writing a write-in candidacy. chuck schumer endorsed her. that's fascinating. >> most other democrats in new york did not. some in the senate are saying chuck schumer has always been looking over his left shoulder and sees aoc appears to be closer than he thinks. >> it's all about his re-election chances as well. this divide between the progressives and moderates is one of the key themes we'll be

watching tonight. >> if youngkin wins, are republicans going to reembrace trump? >> i think they'll walk the fine line that youngkin has walked. he has accepted his endorsements but not campaigned with him in person. >> we shall see. it's going to be a fun night. tune in to our "meet the press" election special tonight. 9:00 p.m. eastern, streaming on nbc news now, it's election coverage you expect from nbc news. coming up next, how many voters now doubt their votes will be counted fairly? how many on the far right say political violence may be justified? later on the world stage, president biden announced an ambitious new goal at home in the fight against climate change and the fight against methane. d by what's next. even with higher stroke risk due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem.

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welcome back. if virginia is close tonight, it could be days before we know who wins that hotly contested governor's race. if that's the case, the eventual winner may have a big challenge, convincing voters that the election was fair. just 41% of republicans believe their votes will be counted fairly. that's down from 84% of republicans from a year ago before the election. and according to another survey, more than two-thirds of republicans believe last year's election was stolen from donald trump. what does this mean? we're joined by cornell and christian. good to see you both. i want to start with this. my nightmare scenario is we're at a half percentage point going into tomorrow morning. we have votes that will trickle in. they're allowed to get here until friday. so we won't be able to call this race. if that's the case, we're not

calling this race until friday. if it's that close, we want to see how many votes are coming in. is the political environment ready for this? >> i think what i find fascinating about the numbers you just showed here is -- all that changed because of trump. if i'm a republican, i'm concerned about how i build energy if the majority of my voters quite frankly don't think their vote will be counted fairly. we democrats after the gore election, we had the same problem on our side where people were saying my vote doesn't matter. they're going to change it and rig it. we had real issues with energizing our voters. so if i was a republican i would be concerned and what i'm looking for tonight is if you see sort of voter turnout sort of surge or lag behind in the rural areas of the state. >> i've seen the messaging on this. you could tell republicans are nervous about that. overwhelm the polls, make it so it's not close.

they're trying. it does seem as if they have to ultra message to overcome this now built in skepticism. >> i believe it was newt gingrich last night on television planting some of those seeds saying if it's close, i'm worried it won't be fair. the thing that will be helpful in this election versus november is that in virginia they're allowed to tabulate the mail-in ballot and early ballots ahead of time. unlike the dynamic that we saw in a state like pennsylvania which came under fire from republicans because the election day votes counted first and then -- >> an intentional decision by the republican decision by legislature in pennsylvania to create this ridiculous propaganda. >> if you have the early vote counted ahead of the time, it may be a sizable lead for mcauliffe. as the election day votes are counted it will swing back more republicans. so the ability to count those votes ahead of time is valuable. while you have someone like newt

gingrich saying these unhelpful things. glenn youngkin himself is not behaving the way donald trump did in the lead up to the november 2020 election. so that is also something that i think makes this a bit different. >> i think you'll know -- for those reasons, so of the early vote has already come in. we surpassed some expectations about early voting when you make it easier for people to vote, they get out and vote early. i think we'll know tonight. i bet you we'll know this evening. >> if we don't know tonight, it's that close and you have to wait and see. our estimates are as much as -- in 2020, 2% of the total vote came in after election night. if it's super close, we have no choice but to wait. >> in virginia, they're structurally different. >> let's talk about math versus momentum here a bit. what is the lesson that you think republicans will take away

if youngkin wins and what should they take away? the reason i ask it that way, i think they'll learn the wrong lesson. what do you say? >> i think the lesson they will take away is they need to be talking about education more in every race across the country to win back suburban voters and it will focus on the race aspect of the education issue. that is what for a lot of republicans and the republican base, them feeling that school curriculum has gone off course is what is animating to them. a lot of the suburban voters in virginia who are now giving youngkin and advantage on this issue, the fact in my polling youngkin is winning by a 15-point margin, it's not just about critical race theory. it's also about -- >> this was covid lockdown. this began that sort of -- >> a whole number of things. i think you'll see a lot more republicans. even if youngkin makes it close, taking that as an issue and amplifying it in a host of races. i wish they would understand this is also a lot about the

economy. it's about inflation, cost of living. that's also something that having the political environment the way it is is going to be helpful and they need to lean into that as well. >> you left out the one issue i was going to say they're leaning in on, how they will -- how some republicans will view -- oh, i can pat trump on the back. i don't have to hug him. i can sort of pat him on the back. that feels like an overread of this. and that it would play -- is that exactly the lesson you would like to see republicans lean in more on trump? >> a couple things. if youngkin wins, i do think it is -- i will disagree with both of you. critical race theory is the mobilizer here. it is the -- >> so you're submitting if youngkin wins, it won out. >> it is the evolution and eloquent sort of change on what

we've been playing with in american politics for a couple decades, because it's the southern strategy but evolved. it is -- critical race theory is another way to tribalize and organize and drive up the white vote. critical race theory is on the ballot tonight more than anything else. the winning or losing will dictate a lot of what happens now around critical race theory. >> if you're in the progressive wing of the party, if the buffalo -- if the write-in candidate beats your progressive nominee, if the minneapolis referendum goes down, is that a message to progressives or not? >> it's tough. proof of the matter is, if you look at the most progressive candidates, it's not like they've been winning a lot of elections. we had that special election with turner, they have not been doing that well. will they stop? no. they won't stop.

by the way, nor should they stop. i think we would argue right now that what was once to the left and progressive, eight or nine years ago, is increasingly mainstream. >> the trump effect in your mind, what happens to -- what do republicans in swing states do with trump? >> i think youngkin set up an interesting playbook for this. even in the primary, in some ways he was lucky, he was never going to be the trumpiest person -- >> but they had to rig a primary to keep a trumpiest person out of it. >> it was procedurally strange. >> that's another way of saying rig the system. >> but in this case, youngkin did not have to embrace trump with a bear hug. he would bring out surrogates like ted cruz to signal to the base that i'll be with you on the issues that matter to you, and this whole time mcauliffe has been trying to tie him to trump, all of the quotes he what

are kind of weak. the ads where he's saying donald trump is one of the reasons i'm running. that's not the damming quote that i think the mcauliffe team wishes it was. >> that's a fair point. cornell and christian, we'll have a lot to talk over tonight. that's for sure. we will see both of you tonight on the "meet the press" election special. if it's tuesday, it was also supposed to be one of the days that we saw a vote on one or both of the democratic spending bills. that's not happening today. they have officially not passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill before tonight's elections. we'll check in with congress in a minute. you're watching "meet the press daily."

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♪ so, let's do it all together people, ♪ ♪ 'cause this is what healthier looks like. ♪ welcome back. deja vu all over again. negotiates over a key part of the president's agenda are dragging out on capitol hill. this is not a rerun of yesterday's news. house members are hammering out the details of the build back better agenda. today is tuesday, it's election day. democrats in virginia would have loved to campaign on the passage of one of those bills or both of them but they don't have either. speaker pelosi also wanted a vote on both infrastructure bills today. that's also not happening. a cloud hanging over democrats politically and some questions about what tonight's results could mean for the president's agenda. joining me now on where these negotiates stand is the chair of the house problems solvers

caucus, congressman josh gutheimer. officially now for election day in new jersey and virginia, there's no new legislation for democrats to campaign on that will be passed today, correct? >> not going to happen today. as you pointed out we're working around-the-clock in good faith to get the build back better reconciliation bill done and across the finish line. we are within inches now. it's been a marathon of discussions over the last days, as you know we're ready to vote for that infrastructure bill, the roads, bridges, tunnels, rail, water infrastructure, climate resiliency. so eager to get both done. and, chuck, we're going to win big in jersey today. phil murphy will bring it home. >> with all that's happened politically in the current and how the national environment is, what it is, and we can -- i think some of it couldn't be helped, some of it is post-covid

headwinds. in hindsight, do you think congressional democrats collectively will look back and say we could have handled this better? >> you know, i'll leave it to others to armchair on this one. many of us, of course, wanted to get this infrastructure bill, the physical infrastructure bill done months ago and have been pushing hard for it. i think it's -- i'm eager to get that across the finish line. what affect it's had on elections, again, other people are smarter than me at that. i'll tell you this, i feel we're close to getting both done. across the finish line, and i think in a common sense way. that's what matters now. >> joe manchin's press conference yesterday seemed to irritate a few progressives. some thought it meant it looks like you're further away from agreement, not closer. did his press conference set things back or do you feel as if too much is being read into it?

>> i don't think it set things back. as you probably heard some of my colleagues in the progressive caucus saying they're moving forward and ahead. joe was rightly frustrated that we had not voted for the package yet, given that it was voted with 69 senators back in early august. it has been sitting in the house for action. right now the key is actually getting both done, moving forward, and i think we can get there. we'll get this bipartisan infrastructure package over the finish line, i hope this week. i'm out of the time prediction game, but i'm hoping it gets done this week and also the reconciliation package, the build back better package which will bring taxes down for people in jersey. that will have everything from child care to universal pre-k to significant climate change provisions. there's a lot that's great for the country and that can unite the country. that's what we need to do right now. >> you brought up the state and local tax deductions. it's shorthanded as s.a.l.t., not to be confused with the

nuclear treaties. are you at all concerned that this is sort of like, hey, ta taxes for thee but not for me. you're fighting so hard to get a tax deduction back but at the same time you're struggling to figure out how to pay for this. are you concerned about that awkward contradiction? >> if you're in jersey, where i'm from, northern jersey, after the red states gutted the state and local tax deduction in do 17, taxes went up for hard working middle class families, for firefighters, teachers. what we're doing now is actually just giving them back what they were and trying to give them tax relief and make life more affordable for them. i think people get that. this is a middle class family issue in so many parts of the country like the state i live in. and it's going to be paid for. this whole package will be paid for. i think that's where this will

end up when it becomes law. i'll tell you, back home when i was walking around with candidates this weekend who were out there today, they were making life more affordable for them and infrastructure, what will we do to fix the holes and the potholes and get the gateway tunnel from new jersey to new jersey fixed. right now it's 113 years old, the tunnel. they just want to make their lives better. get clean drinking water. those are the real issues we're hearing at home. >> so nine months since unified democratic control. you're getting the first test from the voters. it's a tough political environment democrats are in right now. what's your explanation for why it's such a tough environment? >> first in new jersey, it's a good political environment because we'll win big tonight. i've not been as plugged in to what's going on in virginia and some other parts of the country, but every time whether it's

democrats or republicans, when you're in the leadership of the house, the senate, the white house, it's always tough. there's different perspectives. we have to put points on the board. we'll do that, i hope, in the coming days and weeks. and that's -- that, to me, is the real test. can we actually get these things done for families and for people we represent and, you know, do i wish we had done the infrastructure bill sooner? yes. we'll get it done. i think that's going to be the best answer for voters and for the families. >> are you at all concerned tonight if the results are not good for the democrats that will spook the democratic unity which is fragile in the house? >> i'm betting on terry tonight in virginia and betting on phil murphy in virginia. i won't accept the premise that it won't be a good night. it will be a great night for democrats. we'll do well, get it across the

finish line. it's always tough until we vote on this legislation. so, you know, the question is can we get it done? i think we will get it done in the coming days. >> congressman josh gottheimer, appreciate you coming on and sharing your perspective. >> thanks for having me. >> keep that champagne on ice, i guess. >> absolutely. coming up, president biden's new pledge in the fight against climate change which includes cutting u.s. methane production. this is a big deal. it may not be the big headline that they were hoping for, but it's not a small one either. we're live in glasgow with more. you're watching "meet the press daily." y.

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emergency planning for kids. we can't predict when an emergency will happen. so that's why it's important to make a plan with your parents. here are a few tips to stay safe. know how to get in touch with your family. write down phone numbers for your parents, siblings and neighbors. pick a place to meet your family if you are not together and can't go home. remind your parents to pack an emergency supply kit. making a plan might feel like homework, but it will help you and your family stay safe during an emergency. one of the most important things we can do in this decade is keep 1.5 degrees in reach is reduce our methane emissions as quickly as possible. as has already been stated, it's one of the most potent

greenhouse gases there is. it amounts to be half the warming we're experiencing today, just the methane exposure. so, together we're committing to collectively reduce our methane by 30% by 2030. >> welcome back. that's a pretty big announcement from biden at the u.n. climate summit in glasgow, cutting greenhouse emissions, powerful greenhouse gas that is emitted from oil and gas production, there's new epa regulations for the oil and gas industry. this is the equivalent of essentially going and climatizing your house, making sure there is not air leaking out and updating equipment to prevent methane leaks. this is is one of those semi-simple but concrete things. anne thompson joins us now from scotland. when you look at some of the things that the money in the u.s. would go for to cut methane

production, it's commonsense type things to try to make sure that we don't -- we get rid of leaks. like we get rid of methane leaking and we could make an impact. >> you know, chuck, it's always been the low-hanging fruit, if you will, in the fight against climate change. methane, as president biden said, is one of the most potent greenhouse gases on earth. it traps 30 times more heat as carbon dioxide but breaks down much faster. much of the methane that happens, much of those emissions comes from oil and gas production. often it's flared off. it goes out and goes into the atmosphere. now what the epa is saying that not only on new wells are there going to be stronger emissions limbs on methane, but for the very first time on existing wells, where those leaks happen. and that's very important. climate activists i've talked to

today here are very, very excited about this development. and the epa says it could cut methane emissions in the united states by almost 75%. that's pretty striking. >> how about the gulf countries? how about russia. these are huge oil and gas nations and regions. are they going to make this same commitment and put this same amount of money and regulation into it? call me skeptical about the saudi arabia epa and russian epa. >> yeah. and china as well. it's one of the big question marks. russia is not here or at least vladimir putin is not here. president xi from china is not here. that's the big question, where are they? what are they willing to do? it's just not enough. modi of india yesterday spoke and pledged his nation to reach

net zero emissions by 2070, that's two decades later than what they say it needs to happen. china essentially has done -- it's a little closer. it says it will reach net zero by 2060. but people here say that's not enough. you need to get china, which is now the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases in line much quicker than 2060. >> one curiosity i'll have is will american oil companies practice what they -- practice the regulated standards overseas that they're forced to practice in the united states? have we gotten any pledge like that? >> i have not heard of that. one of the things i've been surprised about today is there hasn't been the kind of pushback from oil and gas producers on these methane -- these new methane rules that you would have seen five years ago or ten years ago. there seems to be an acknowledgment within the

industry that we have a responsibility and we have to do something. >> you described it as the low-hanging fruit which means that's something they've known and something they possibly could have done something about a while ago. we love the earth behind you there. not many people have the earth as their backdrop. coming up, we'll head to minneapolis, a city that saw a year of civil unrest and political turmoil. voters are heading to the polls. they have a number of key issues on the ballot, the mayor and the future of policing. you're watching "meet the press daily." r what they need. woooooooooooooo... we are not getting you a helicopter. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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. welcome back. what could be a litmus test for police reform in urban areas across the country, minneapolis, the city of, that is, is voting in their first city-wide election since the murder of george floyd by derek chauvin a year and a half ago. an event that changed the city and set off calls for racial equity and police reform across the country. those calls will be put to the test today with the future of the police department itself on the ballot in minneapolis. if approved, ballot measure two would dissolve the police department as it stands and replace it with a department of public safety, which, yes, would have police officers. now, the mayoral race is also on the ballot where mayor jacob frey is fighting to keep his job.

shaquille brewster is on the ground. you've been an unofficial resident of the city of minneapolis for the last -- for what's been a long time. you've seen this debate essentially from start to today. here we are 15 months later. what are you seeing and how has it evolved in minneapolis, this debate over police reform? >> good point that you make, chuck n te chuck, in terms of how we saw it in the beginning. in this park you saw a majority of council members take the stage and say they would defund and dismantle the minneapolis police department, now it's a polling location that people are going into and they'll have that question over whether they want to shift policing in this city. let's break it down for our viewers. yes, you mentioned, it does eliminate the minneapolis police department and it replaces it with a bigger department of public safety. what does that mean? the chief of police position, that will go away. the mayor will no longer have

exclusive control over the department and there will be a minimum funding requirement that's eliminated. that's in the city's official governing documents. what comes instead is a commissioner of public safety, the mayor and city council will split control, the text of the language says language says the officers would be there if necessary, that it could have police officers in this department if necessary. i want you to listen to the conversation that i had with a couple of voters on both sides of this that really help show you what voters are saying in the sense they want reform but they're really struggling with whether or not this is the best way to go. >> what side did you come on? >> don't change it. keep the public safety. >> why is that? >> because the alternative, they have no explanation of what it was going to be, how it was going to be changed, and so on and so forth. we would be voting for who knows what. >> i voted yes for 2, and that's

because i've done a lot of work around public safety all year. i've protested all year. we've demanded change, and i think if you look at not just minneapolis but minnesota as a state, we've been demanding for police accountability for over a decade. and no matter who holds seats, it's always politics over people's lives. this year it became property over people's lives and i don't believe that question, too, is the solution to it all, but i'm willing to take a chance at something new. >> reporter: this is a decision so many voters say they are taking extremely seriously. the secretary of state's office told me that they have already exceeded early voting records here in minneapolis. you have people coming out to vote. they expect that projections at turnout could be somewhere near 50% for this local race, chuck. >> well, that would tell you that the community has been engaged, that's for sure, if you get a turnout like that in what is a non-presidential year.

minnesota usually leads the nation in voter turnout in any election cycle. up next, what to watch and how to watch tonight as polls close in virginia. early poll closing time 7:00 p.m. you're watching "meet the press daily." you're watching "meet the press daily. . i think they look good, man. mm, smooth. uh, they are a little tight. like, too tight? might just need to break 'em in a little bit. you don't want 'em too loose. for those who were born to ride there's progressive. with 24/7 roadside assistance. -okay. think i'm gonna wear these home. -excellent choice. [music: "i swear"] jaycee tried gain flings for the first time the other day... with 24/7 roadside assistance. -okay. and forgot where she was. you can always spot a first time gain flings user. ♪ in 2016, i was working at the amazon warehouse

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welcome back. polls close in virginia in just about five hours. we're back at the big board with a look at how to follow the returns tonight, what to watch for. here to join me is someone you'll be following on twitter tonight. it's the house editor david wasserman. mr. wasserman, it's good to see you. i want to start with chesterfield because of all the swing counties it's probably where we'll get everything in before we get everything in northern virginia, and just to update chesterfield, here was

chesterfield county in 2017. they carried half the votes. 2017, democrats carried the votes. what can we expect? >> i expect he will be able to, the question is will the margin be enough. chesterfield is it unique because the democratic trend line is not just the result of suburban white voters changing allegiances, it's also the black vote we've seen in chesterfield. will that hold up in chesterfield and similar places? >> speaking of that, i want to go to two suburban quality counties, fairfax, arlington and virginia, the outer suburbs of prince william and loudon, and

you've been especially obsessed with both of these because of those middle class voters of color. let me just remind people, 2017 in loudon. north i've got almost 60%. in 2020, biden got over 60%. what's interesting is i've heard youngkin people tell me they believe they can get to 48% in loudon. that would tell me there actually are biden youngkin voters. >> that's right. if youngkin were even able to get 45% in loudon, i think it would be over in his favor. democratic turnout inside the beltway looks pretty good among the professional, high-propensity vote, right? the question for democrats today is are they able to get out the younger, less politically wired and non-white voters who powered biden to that 10% margin in 2020, and were engaged in 2017

when northam won. it's probably not going to hit those types of levels. >> i did my best to draw you a picture of the beltway here. there are lots of voters outside the beltway here. let's talk about margins, right? one of the things we're wondering about is not weather these counties are going to go red particularly in south virginia and southern virginia here, but how red? that's what i want to show folks. that's the type of thing we want to listen for tonight. if we just go near bristol, virginia, to give you a sense of how donald trump did here. this is a 75% trump county. now, it was a 75% gillespie county. what are you looking for in these red counties? is it the raw vote? does it look like presidential turnout? is that what you're looking for? >> it's really the turnout. i don't think there is any question youngkin is going to

get strasospheric turnout for the trump vote. is youngkin closer to that trump 2020 number or closer to the gillespie 2017 number? i'll be looking at bedford, rockingham, augusta, large portions of southwest virginia like washington and taswell counties. that will be an early clue on election night tonight. >> and early vote, this is still a new thing for virginia voters. election voters may not be as advantaged as we saw in 2020, correct? >> that's right, because we've seen a stronger youngkin push to turn republicans out early, that means that the early vote is not going to be as favorable to democrats as it was in 2020, and the election day vote is not going to be as republican as it was. so we have to be very careful

when we look at these numbers that pour in after 7:00 p.m. >> that's the big thing here. this is change. don't go assuming how they reported in the past is how virginia will be reporting tonight. dave wasserman, we will all be in touch with you a lot tonight, that's for sure. thank you, sir. thank you for being with us at this hour. we have more "meet the press daily" tomorrow with a post-election show and tune in to the "meet the press" election special. it's election news coverage that you'll be getting and msnbc will have election news coverage tonight as well. our coverage continues right now with chris jansing. good to be with you. i'm chris jansing coming to you live from what is now the epicenter of the epicenter of this political universe. it's election day here in virginia, and where i am right now, loudoun