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northeast. snow is piling up in new york and new jersey, but take a look at the flooding in the beach towns of massachusetts. look at that, storm surge taking over roadways there. flight aware is reporting more than 4,600 airline cancellations today, and drivers are being urged to stay off roadways, but in new york city, some are braving the elements to go to work. >> we're going to get you, and my patients, you know, they need to have the meals. so it's my job, it's my duty.

>> and here's a look at some of the snow totals so far, as many as 16 inches in parts of new jersey to about 1/2 foot in fox chase, pennsylvania. we're covering it all for us this hour. nbc correspondents, kathy park, emilie ikeda and allison barber, along with nbc meteorologist michelle grossman. let's talk about where the storm is and where it's heading. >> yeah, well this storm has definitely performed for us. we have the snow, we have the wind, and we have that coastal flooding that you saw from that video. we have many more hours of dealing with this. some of us in the southern part of the storm, the delmarva, eastern shore of maryland were cleaning up already. it's near new england. we're going to have a tough couple of hours ahead of us. let's take a look at where the alerts remain, 44 million people under a winter weather alert. where you see a blizzard warning, that's in your purple, the winter storm warning, that's in your pink. that's where we expect the most

impact over the next several hours. in terms of additional snowfall, so much so far, up to 15 inches in some spots. they're not used to it there, and really, this whole season, they have had the most snow compared to the inland parts of new jersey, also pennsylvania. so as we're looking at boston, we're expecting up to 2 feet of snow. that could break some records. we may make it into the top five in terms of the biggest snowstorms on record, but that's something we're going to have to watch over the next several hours. this is what it looks like on radar. it's big, stretching from parts of new jersey all the way up through new england. where you see the white there, that's the heaviest snow falling, still over long island, into rhode island, cape cod, martha's vineyard, nantucket, heavy snow, and off the coast of maine, looking at heavy snow as well, and we're looking at gusty winds, seeing winds gusting at hurricane force winds and that's going to bring down power lines. it has caused power outages, and

it is frigid, dangerously cold windchills. as we go throughout time, we're looking at the heavy snow continuing to fall throughout new england. near impossible travel conditions, whiteout conditions, we're already seeing that right now. we're seeing snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, so if you can stay off the roadways, please do so, airport delays as well, and in terms of that snowfall, boston, 24 inches of snow, portland, 24, parts of long island, you could see up to 2 feet of snow as well, and even in some parts of southeastern maine or massachusetts, we could see nearly 3 feet of snow. we'll have to see by tomorrow morning what happens over the next few hours. >> thanks for keeping track on all of that for us. you mentioned massachusetts, we're going there, where a state of emergency is in effect. guys, you're looking at boston right now, a roving camera. we're live there, wow, snow is coming down, and you know who can attest to that fact, my colleague, nbc's kathy park joining us from boston.

i was looking at you in the monitor during michelle's report, you have on ski goggles, very smart, because given the wind, oh, my goodness. >> reporter: you know what, i had to bring out the winter gear, the extreme winter gear because that's what we're dealing with out here. i mean, i told you conditions would worsen. yep, it's getting a lot worse. so this is boston's area, it looks like a frozen tundra, you have snow coming down. we heard michelle saying it's coming down at 3 inches her hour. you have the snow just blowing all around, what's surprising is we are seeing folks braving the elements just to kind of take in the scenery, it is brutal out here. it is freezing. it's in the teens right now. conditions we're told, it's supposed to stay this way for several hours. so when this is all said and done, we're looking at up to 2 feet of snow in some parts of

the area. as you can imagine, all of the flights have been cancelled at boston logan international airport, and then obviously travel is extremely treacherous on the roadways. so officials are encouraging people to kind of hunker down, do not go out on the roadways, crews are working around the clock, trying to keep up with the storm system, trying to clear the roadways. but those coastal communities, we are seeing incredible, extreme waves out there. yesterday, residents were boarding up, they had sandbags out, they just wanted to ensure that they were able to ride out the storm. a lot of residents actually are staying in place. there was a voluntary evacuation order that was in effect yesterday but a lot of people just kind of wanted to take this all in. we'll see how they fare when all of this is said and done. but man, conditions, we are told, not getting any better,

expected to stay like this for several hours, but i have to say, alex, i mean, i'm pretty cold out here. in addition to all of this snow, we're dealing with the extreme, the brutal, the bitter cold, so when this all passes, we'll be freezing, i think, for a couple of days, and also digging out for several days as well. alex. >> i'll speak with you again, another update, back into the truck and warm up. thank you very much, kathy park for that. let's go from there to emilie ikeda on long island, new york. with a welcome to you, i was watching you in the monitor as well, and still you're having trouble keeping your hood on there. the parka hood, because it's so windy. >> reporter: these wind gusts are just really quite brutal, alex, up to 60 miles per hour in parts of the long island area, and actually just recently in the last hour or, so the national weather service confirming indeed a blizzard within this area, and the first for a number of years for this

area. we could see up to 2 feet of snow here. already more than a foot in parts of long island. we were speaking with people who are managing to come out. some trying to dig out their cars. certainly a steep task at hand. one first responder who had to drive to get to work, we were just hearing about how difficult and treacherous the roadway conditions are. she said the number one most greatest obstacle was the visibility, and that's because these wind gusts were picking up the snow and it's coming down at an impressive rate, 2 inches in parts of new york. in nearby connecticut, that number is up to 3 inches. here's the governor in the last hour. take a listen. >> no tractor-trailers, we shut that down at 3:00 this morning. that was the right thing to do. rail is down. airport is down at this point. but i've got to urge each and every one of you, stay off the roads like you heard susan say. right now, the snow is

accumulating, especially in eastern connecticut where it's falling heavier and, you know, 3 inches an hour. snow plows can't come around fast enough to get that cleared. that creates a lot of hazardous conditions. that, plus the low visibility we found on, you know, i-95. there have been a couple of terrible automobile accidents. one rollover. >> from railways to runways, delta air lines announcing that it is cancelling, suspending all of its operations. sorry, you can see that wind gust really coming through. it's difficult to look at the camera because of just how powerful this is. really picking up. that's where you see the low visibility. over to the treacherous travel. railways to runways, we're seeing delta air lines suspend all operations in new york area airports and you can understand why. this is a storm, alex for the record books. atlantic city just recording its snowiest january on record ever.

i think we're going to continue to see some of these records broken, alex. >> you two please go get in the truck and warm up. excellent reporting, emilie ikeda there on long island. thank you. meantime, overseas for all of you, u.s. troops are on high alert as the pentagon warns that russia has the capability to launch a full scale invasion on ukraine in just weeks. president biden says he will soon be sending troops into eastern europe. defense secretary lloyd austin says conflict is not inevitable. let's go to nbc's matt bradley on the ground for us in the ukrainian capital of kyiv. welcome to you. high stakes diplomacy is underway to avert conflict militarily speaking. what is the latest. >> reporter: it's interesting that you ask that because looking around here, walking around this capital city, it really doesn't feel like anyone is all that concerned. we spoke with some people. we spoke with president vladimir

zelensky and he didn't seem that troubled. today ukraine's future hangs in the balance, after tit for tat military drills by russia and ukraine. as the pentagon warned that the more than 100,000 russian troops that now surround ukraine are enough to conquer the whole country. >> we strongly encourage russia to stand down. armed force should always be the last resort. >> reporter: american help is on the way. the latest shipment of lethal u.s. military aid arrived in kyiv last night, and president biden said american troops may soon head to ukraine's neighbors. president zelensky blaming the west. >> how are you preparing for the imminent tannic. >> we shouldn't panic, he said,

we have a powerful army. >> reporter: despite appearanc ukrainians are taking this seriously. >> the ukrainian people are ready for this. >> reporter: the official line is likely russia won't invade. >> this is another wednesday, russia is always trying to destabilize us so for the ukrainians this isn't something new. i think that's why you see maybe a bit of, you don't see panic. you don't see people getting too concerned because they've lived with it for so long. >> reporter: even if an invasion is imminent, here in kyiv, the drums of war sound like a distant rumble. >> yeah, alex, president zelensky, he appears to be holding out hope that diplomacy could still offer a solution. the next major meeting, the next major negotiations is going to be in berlin in about two weeks, alex. >> let's hope the next two weeks

stay calm then. thank you very much. matt bradley in kyiv. a golden opportunity for the president to chalk up a big victory. it could have a far greater impact beyond the scope of politics. we'll talk about it next. beyonf politics we'll talk about it next yeah, hang on, i'm about to break my own record. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ like pulsing, electric shocks, sharp, stabbing pains, or an intense burning sensation. what is this nightmare? it's how some people describe... shingles. a painful, blistering rash that could interrupt your life for weeks. forget social events and weekend getaways. if you've had chickenpox, the virus that causes shingles is already inside of you. if you're 50 years or older ask your doctor or pharmacist about shingles.

political headlines developing this hour. the ntsb is on the ground in pittsburgh, looking into why a 52-year-old bridge collapsed on friday. it happened, in fact, just hours before president biden visited that area to promote his infrastructure agenda. the president visiting the site of just over 3,300 bridges in pennsylvania deemed structurally deficient. president biden highlighting the importance of $1.6 billion heading to the state for bridge repairs. thanks to his bipartisan infrastructure bill. >> we're going to fix them all. it's not a joke. this is going to be a gigantic change, and there's 43,000

nationwide. >> also in pennsylvania, a state appeals court struck down a law allowing no excuse mail-in voting. the pennsylvania department of state immediately filed an appeal to its supreme court. last hour, pennsylvania congresswoman, madeline dean told me she believes it will be reversed. >> i have confidence that the supreme court of pennsylvania will see this effort to undo the 2019 bill to modernize our elections as an attempt at voter suppression, cynically an an attempt at undermining the competence of pennsylvania voters in our election. i believe they will find that act 77, which was put forward by the republican majority in the pennsylvania house and senate is constitutional. >> and back in washington, the january 6th committee now issuing subpoenas to 14 of the so-called alternate electors who falsely claimed that then president donald trump won in seven battleground states. committee members, what they

tend to find out. >> who was behind the plot to overturn the election. this didn't randomly happen that people in various states decided, well, i guess i'll just do a bogus certificate. no, this was coordinated and planned and we'd like to know every aspect of that. >> and the faa announced it reached an agreement with verizon and at&t that will permit them to expand 5g service, they were worried they could disrupt and threaten flight safety. this weekend, president biden is mulling over who he's going to nominate to fill justice stephen breyer's seat on the supreme court, and the timing all could not be more convenient for biden as the president is facing obstacles on several fronts with russia's pending invasion of ukraine,

inflation, coronavirus, and two major domestic priorities stalled in the senate. breyer's retirement gives biden a fresh opportunity for a badly needed victory. joining me, kurt bardella, adviser to the dnc, and dcc, and britney cunningham, political analyst, and cofounder of campaign zero. good to see all of you. thank you so much for joining ne, and making your way to your cameras on this snowy saturday. adrian, with the president facing the low approval numbers and certainly the challenges with his own agenda, what kind of opportunity is this for the biden administration politically. >> it's a huge opportunity for the biden administration, you know, during the campaign, president biden made it clear that if he had a chance to nominate a justice of the supreme court he would choose a woman of color. now he gets to make that campaign promise a reality.

there are a number of extraordinary women who are viable, and who he is considering for this position, and frankly, alex, i think this is something the base needs, the democratic party base needs to be energized right now. president biden's numbers are, you know, not moving right now, and i think we need to remind our voters what is at stake here. sometimes in order to get the numbers up, you have to draw a contrast, with reproductive rights on the line, there's a lot at stake when it comes to the supreme court. president biden has a chance to make history, and there's nothing that our democratic base loves more than doing what we can to make history, and impact change. that's desperately needed rite now in the process. >> but some on the right are suggesting that biden is saying that he is going to nominate a black woman is unconstitutional. let's take a listen to what they're saying. >> to exclude certain candidates based solely on race and gender is beyond extremely divisive, it

may be illegal, why doesn't biden strike a blow for equity and nominate george floyd's sister, not a judge or lawyer or whatever, clearly that's not the point anywhere, this law stuff. >> i'm curious what you make of that argument, britney. are they actually suggesting that there couldn't possibly be a black woman who is qualified for that position, and does this at all harken to what ronald reagan faced when he was saying i'm going to put the first woman, sandra day o'connor on the supreme court? >> they are exactly suggesting that there could not possibly be experienced smart, qualified black women to put on the bench. the truth of the matter is the gop rarely seems to have a problem with what they call identity politics, when the identity is white and male. black women remain the least recognized members of this thing called democracy. we have fed this thing directly from our chest, literally and

figuratively. we are consistently called upon to defend it and how dear anyone think we are unqualified to protect it from the supreme court bench. i think there are lots of smart progressive choices of black women who will righteously represent marginalized people across this country who deserve to be reflected in the kinds of decisions that are coming out of our highest court. this is the same kind of hypocrisy that we have consistently seen from the gop. they don't have to name they're going to nominate a white man. they go ahead and do it. >> we have seen before in 2018, and also 2020 how supreme court picks can motivate voters and get them to turn out in an election. do you think this will have an impact on the midterms t.st no the going to be flipping any seats. there will be a 6-3 conservative leaning court, and timing could have it confirmed months before voters head to the polls if there aren't too many republican antics. >> well, i look at it, alex, as the situation of really contrast

here, and in an election, in campaigns, we say, do not motivate the other side's base. you look at the three boxes that are important for democrat victories that we have seen over the last couple of years. it's our base, constituents of color and it's women. we have an opportunity for republicans to go out every single day and make sexist, ignorant and racist, this is a billboard for why you should be voting for democrats and not republicans and if they use these hearings, if they use this process as a mechanism to continue advancing such an inflammatory, offensive, just wrong minds ignorant rhetoric, they are running the risk of alienating constituencies, waking up constituencies, they're going to do democrats a huge favor if they continue down this type of rhetoric. >> i'm curious, republicans in the senate, look, they know they're not in the majority right now. while they can't stop a nomination, they can draw it out as long as possible, to that

end, let's take a listen to what senator susan collins said this week. >> there is no need for any rush. we can take our time, have hearings, go through the process, which is a very important one, it is a lifetime appointment after all. >> so adrian, what's your reaction to, especially after what the republican party did with amy coney barrett. >> yeah, let's remember amy coney barrett was confirmed from the time she was announced to the time of her confirmation in 38 days. this is pretty rich coming from, you know, susan collins, but nonetheless, i mean, look, this is not going to be easy. we have a very marginal senate. i have faith that president biden is going to work across the aisle, work across the lines and try to get this nominee passed in a bipartisan marijuana. there's no reason why just because this person is a woman of color that republicans in the senate should not support her. so i hope that the process will be fair. i hope that mitch mcconnell will

change his ways a little bit. and we should make sure that this process is fair and equitable and this woman has the right to make her case and gets a fair hearing. that's why it's the most important part of this process. >> technically, whoever is nominated could be confirmed with only democratic support, but that of course all depends on the 50 senate democrats being in agreement, and we have seen the actions of senators joe manchin and kyrsten sinema who have not voted with fellow democrats on important votes. is that a concern? >> of course it's a concern, and i want to make sure we do not have a repeat of what we saw in the '90s with lonnie guin irks who should have gotten the appointment under the clinton administration, and received these same attacks against her, her character and her work. look, i realize that we are talking about a gop that has

completely thrown out the rule book so it's incumbent upon democrats to not try to play a game that the republicans are no longer playing because they burned that rule book. they have thrown it across the yard, and they are playing by their own rules. why not go ahead and do the same. let's get through this nomination, and confirmation, and seriously talk about expanding the court. as of right now, none of the courts across this land are truly representative of the electorate, and constituents of the country. let's give them a real fight and push back against the long play they're making to roll back equity in courts across the country. >> there are sound bytes we have played in the body of this segment, they are offensive in so many ways. is this the kind of thing we are going to see, curt, when it comes to the confirmation hearings for whomever is nominated. it will be a woman of color, a black woman. >> i shudder to think what people like, whether it's ted cruz, whether it's a josh

hawley, whether it's even a marjorie taylor greene, all the characters that comprise the current republican party leadership and the face of this party, what they're going to say, and i'll tell you, if they want to play games and drag this out, and make this a marathon, it will be to their detriment because they will be broadcasting their bigotness, their ignorance, racism, misogyny on full display. it might play by their primary. it might play well with their base, it will turn off everybody else and wake up the coalition of voters democrats need. >> adrian, curt, britney, thank you so much, thank you for weighing in. we're talking about that storm that could dump 3 feet of snow in some parts. we'll be speaking with the mayor of one city getting hit hard right now. of one city getting hit hard of one city getting hit hard right now.

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so take a look at this video out of massachusetts. look at these waves crashing off the coast. it is leading to some major flooding around the coastal towns. the dangerous snow conditions have forced governors in massachusetts, maryland, new jersey, new york, rhode island as well all to declare states of emergencies, and we're now learning that snowfall across long island and new jersey has topped 15 inches. weather officials say this storm is officially surpassed bomb cyclone criteria. that means pressure in the air has dropped dramatically in the last 18 hours. let's go to nbc's ellison barber, joining us from brooklyn, new york, problems in parts of new york, 2,000 customers without power. how is the storm developing where you are, any better than when we checked in last hour? >> reporter: you know, the wind comes in waves. for the most part it seems like it is manageable. you look at the roads and you see where snowplows have come

through, pushing a lot of these cars further behind, piles and piles of snow, and you see the snow still falling, wind picking up, and you realize there is still a lot of work for crews to do out here. the governor of new york, she says this is a event, a storm that they thought would really take place for the most part overnight, and by now, they would be in more of a mode to clean up. she says that's not where they're at right now. they're still dealing with the snow, listen to more of what she said at her briefing this afternoon. >> we had anticipated based on the projections and what was forecast was that we would be seeing the brunt of this during the late night hours from midnight to about 8:00 a.m. this storm lingering. we're still getting the same amount of volume, the same effect, but as everyone knows, we are dealing with this in live time right now, as opposed to being in a clean up mode. >> reporter: so when you look at this snow, you notice that the consistency here, it's pretty

powdery, and that has been one of the challenges, one of the warnings throughout the storm is they say when the wind blows through, it picks up all of this really powdery snow, and can create conditions that are whiteout conditions that drivers, they really can't see. they have encouraged people to stay off the roads today. they say if you know someone who is without heat, without shelter to call 311 so they can try and get them some sort of help. it is cold, but in new york city it's supposed to get colder throughout the day, even though the snow is supposed to stop sometime this afternoon. the national weather service has issued a winter weather statement for new york city, and they say that temperatures, windchills could be near zero all the way until sunday morning. alex. >> so clearly that's the calm before what is coming with the wind, at least it looks better. i know that can be very deceiving because it also looks cold. thank you for that. let's check in on the situation to the north of where ellison is, joining me now, boston mayor, michelle woo.

thank you so much for joining us on a super busy day there. talk about the situation there, how much snow you are seeing. i know you're joining us by phone, so what do you know? >> thanks for checking in. it's a big one here, and it's not just a lot of snow, but it is coming down fast with heavy winds, so in a lot of neighborhoods across the city, we're already at zero visibility now. our crews have been on the road. this is a historic storm, not just the amount of snow but the amount of preparation going into it. we have 920 pieces of equipment out right now, plows, salt spreaders, trying to maintain the roads as best they can until the snowfall stops and we'll get to digging out. >> i can imagine, i want to tell you viewers we're bringing live pictures where it's with a mobile camera, probably going on one of those streets or whether we're looking right now. definitely visibility is not too great. have you had any concerns with

mass transit, power loss, what about things like that around boston. >> there have been some scattered power outages, but we're working hard with the utilities to get that fixed as quickly as possible. the public transit system has been running smoothly, but for the most part, the biggest blessing is that this is on a saturday and many folks have listened and been extremely collaborative in staying inside and staying off the roads, we have had pretty smooth and all things considered as of road clearing because folks are inside, and safe and our nbc system is still running pretty smoothly. >> and i can tell by the tenor of your voice, you seem very much like, okay, things are progressing as we hoped they would. what are you still concerned about, though? is there anything, with flooding, what about the high winds bringing down power lines potentially? are you guys on alert for that? >> yeah, we were about an hour and a half off from the highest winds lining up with peak highs,

and that would have added a lot to the flooding concerns, so we did see some flooding around the coastlines, and the areas that tend to have the water spill over, and that has mostly been better than anticipated. >> okay. >> when it comes to snowfall and intensity, it is really the wind and the cold. i worry about folks who will be shoveling later. please take care of yourselves, watch out for signs of over exertion or exposure to the cold. we want to just take it slow. it's going to take us a while. it's very very messy out there right now, and we're going to be working through the night and into tomorrow to get all of this clear. >> do you think this is all going to be cleared up tomorrow getting rid of the snow and getting things back to normal by the time you have monday morning business commute? >> our fingers crossed, so far the plan is for schools to be on and we're going to be, again, with our nearly thousand plows on the road working as quickly

as possible. we'll have to wait and see how everything settles down. the wind is a huge factor here creating snow drifts across the city, and so we're going to take it one hour at a time, but so far, things are going relatively well, and i'm so grateful to the incredible city workers and snowplow drivers working hard to keep everyone safe. >> we're going to hope boston stays on this positive directory. mayor michelle woo, nice to talk to you again, thank you so much. up next, the weakest vladimir putin hopes to exploit if he decides to invade ukraine, and why it matters to the u.s. , , and why it matters to the u.s. (vo) t-mobile for business wants to make this the best year for your business yet. when you switch and bring your own device, we'll pay off your phone up to $800. you can keep your phone. and keep your number.

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country's border, and the pentagon warns russia now has a complete range of military options. the u.s. officially rejected a key russian demand that nato rule out ukraine joining the defense alliance and halt further expansion to the east. my next guest, mary elise sarahi has closely examined the standoff over nato expansion. she did so in his latest inch, not 1 inch, america, russia and the making of post-cold war steal mate, and a historian and professor at johns hopkins university. since you tracked what led to the down fall of what could have been a promising u.s./russia partnership at the end of the cold war, i know you reflect on the latest developments, you know, 130,000 troops at ukrainian border, putin demanding nato stop its eastward expansion. where did this current conflict

begin? >> in a sense, it began when the berlin wall came down in 1989, and of course president putin was in east germany as a young kgb officer. for most people that event was a cause for great joy. for him it was a catastrophe, and as he has famously said many times, the subsequent collapse of the soviet union, the state that he served loyally was the greatest geopolitical of the 21st century. there's a lot of competition for that title, the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. the fact that the 30th anniversary of the event, the fact that that rolled around at the end of last month, that seemed to him to be an event worth marking by having a massive killing force krounched -- crouched on ukraine's border. >> that description, was president putin at that time, was he looking at the fall of the berlin wall, was that a myopic view, his own perspective or was that widely shared by russia?

>> well, of course russia in its previous incarnation, the soviet union, was a competitor, super power, to the united states, so after the end of the cold war, there was a sense of lost power that was widely shared. that does not mean that everyone in russia approves of what putin is doing. it also doesn't mean it's entirely accurate. china is a huge economic power, and there's been a lot of speculation recently about a new cold war with china that i think it's important to remember that still 30 years after the end of the cold war, there's only two countries that have 90% of the nuclear warheads and that's the u.s. and russia. those are the only two countries that can basically end life on earth, pretty much, in a matter of minutes. so even though it's no longer the soviet union, russia is too nuclear to ignore. >> i tell you, what you just said is a sobering thought. it stops me in my tracks.

one of putin's key points of contention, his claim of a broken promise that the americans agreed not to allow nato to expand an inch into eastern europe, but during a press conference in december, putin said not 1 inch to the east, they told us in the 90s. so what, they cheated, just brazenly tricked us. here is secretary of state, antony blinken from just last week. >> i think the charitable interpretation would be that sometimes we in russia have different interpretations of history. >> so how important are these differences? the word charitable there is quite telling, what do you think is motivating putin now? >> well, putin has found that he can instrumentalize history to his advantage. just briefly this notion that nato would move not 1 inch to the east, it did come up in a speculative conversation between the then u.s. secretary of state james baker and the then soviet leader gorbachev, he tried to

deny it came up. it's clearly in the documental records of the time. the problem is that it was a speculative conversation and what ended up getting put down in writing, the document that unified germany in september 1990, that actually allows nato to move eastward along the cold war line and moscow signed it, but putin is not interested in historical accuracy, he's interested in the emotional punch of the sequence of events. as you saw in the press conference on december 23rd, he's saying, look, the secretary of state, the president's best friend, look, gorbachev in the eye would move not once inch eastward. that comes together with a lot of motivations and reasons he's doing what he is right now. >> i'm going to ask my director to put up these last two graphics we were just showing, the before and after. the after being since the fall

of the soviet union, more than a dozen countries have joined nato. more than 30 countries now are member states, and biden said this month that ukraine would struggle with democratic governance and corruption would not qualify to become part of nato for many years, and would not rule it out. you said ukrainians are held hostage by putin, why is that? >> basically if you look at the demands putin is making in the draft treaties they have been circulating, the demands are largely about what nato should and shouldn't do, right, so in essence he's holding ukraine hostage because he senses that there's an opportunity now in germany, for example, angela merkel is gone, there's an untested new government. britain is consumed with boris johnson's partygate and brexit. all of these things that came together, the sense that there's weakness in the west, this anniversary that's so important to him, i think he's decided he wants to hold ukraine hostage to

force a doover of the 1990s. he wants to go back to the time when the cold war order had crumbled and a new order was being created and create a stake for russia in it. he wants to get what his predecessors, mykkele gorbachev didn't get. if that's not going to happen, then he has historical interests in merging ukraine and russia. >> okay. very interesting conversation for which i thank you. mary elise, we'll look forward to seeing you again. thanks. something's going to happen very soon that is supposed to help combat inflation. will it work? o help combat inflation. help combat inflation. will it worktakes everything y'♪ ♪ ♪taking a break from all your worries ♪ ♪sure would help a lot ♪ ♪wouldn't you like to get away? ♪ ♪ ♪ sometimes you want to go ♪ ♪where everybody knows your name ♪

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it goes on clear. no mess just soothing comfort. try new vicks vapostick. new concerns today about wage growth and inflation after a wild month on wall street. new numbers from the bureau of economic analysis shows wages and salaries are up about 1% in the final quarter of 2021, continuing an upward trend, but the prices americans are paying for goods and services also

continue to inch upwards, and inflation is rattling financial markets as investors try to keep their earnings ahead of a rise in interest rates by the federal reserve. joining me now, chief economist with moody analytics. i know that you are of the view, sir, that maybe the fed should hold off on raising interest rates, but before we get to that, tell me how would a rise in interest rates bring inflation under control? >> well, alex, the most direct way is it will cool off growth and the economy has been growing strongly. we created 6.5 million jobs last year, the unemployment rate is below 4% so if you do a forecast based on that growth, you know the economy is going to be close to full employment by the end of the year so that would make sense, then, that interest rates should be higher than they are today. federal funds, the key rate the fed controls is zero. that's too low in the context of the improving economy.

so, the key -- most direct way is just to slow growth down a bit so that we, you know, we don't get into a position where the economy overheats. so where unemployment is too low, wage growth is too strong and inflation develops. >> except that you don't think this is the time right now for the fed to act? >> no, i think they should. i think there's a debate about -- a reasonable debate about how fast they should raise rates, and you know, right now, the fed and markets seem to be signaling very aggressive rate increases, five rate increases this year, a quarter point each. that's, you know, a pretty significant increase in rates if they stick to that script, and i'm just nervous that that might be overdoing it in the context of the fact that we're still in the middle of a pandemic. i mean, omicron is doing a lot of damage to the economy. job employment is probably going to decline in january. gdp growth, you mentioned that number for the fourth quarter but for the first quarter, that

may be flat to down, so you know, i think it's prudent for the fed to start raising rates, but i think it's also prudent for them to be cautious about how quickly they raise rates. >> so, as we talk about, we've seen the rise with wages, with salary growth. you don't think that would continue, then, with the raising of the fed interest rates? >> yeah, i think if the fed normalizes rates, gets them up in a, you know, consistent, orderly way, then growth will slow, but the economy will be at full employment, and if that, you know, scenario unfolds, you know, i think that there's, obviously, a lot of risk around it but i think that's the most likely scenario. yeah, i think inflationary pressures will abate, moderate, in large part because i think the inflation we're observing now is largely due to the pandemic and the disruptions that that's causing to supply chains and to labor markets. you know, we got a lot of sick people not able to go to work and that's just causing havoc in the labor market and causing

wages to rise. so you know, i think if everything sticks to script, wage growth will moderate, and inflation will moderate, but real wage growth, that's wage growth after inflation, should be pretty good. i think solid. you know, because the labor market is tight. unemployment is low. and workers have some leverage here. >> yeah. a very typical barometer is gas prices and at this point right now, they remain up almost a dollar for regular from where they were a year ago, and higher gas prices, that leads to higher prices on almost everything else. so what's behind this? is it likely to subside any time soon? >> i think it will. demand has picked up for oil and gas and other energy quickly as the economy has reopened over the past year. the supply of that oil and natural gas has been slower to respond. alex, that's not atypical coming out of a recession. it's been more pronounced this go around, but you know, supply will catch up, because producers

can make a lot of money at these prices. you can already see it, the number of rigs operating in the u.s. are double what they were a year ago. we will see this moderate. the one thing that may delay improvement here, though, are those geopolitical events that are -- that you were just talking about, russia, ukraine, i mean, russians are huge producers of oil and natural gas, and as long as there's all that tension in that part of the world, that's going to make it difficult for prices to come down. so that may delay things, but you know, supply and demand would suggest that as we move into the spring and summer, yes, we'll see lower gasoline prices, which would be obviously, a great relief to a lot of people. >> very good news. mark, a great conversation. thank you so much. she's in the running to be nominated to the nation's highest court. i'm going to talk with congressman who's championing her cause and see why he thinks she will get republican support. she will get republican support. (sighs wearily)

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