good morning. i'm chris jansing in for chris melvin at msnbc headquarters in new york. there's a lot we're following this monday. first, new u.s. intelligence on the escalating threat as russia gears up for a possible invasion of ukraine. you can see this new video we just got of more u.s. troops arriving in poland to bolster our nato allies around that country. an official with direct knowledge says russia has now amassed 70% of the troops it needs for an invasion.

and if russia does invade, 50,000 could be killed within weeks. national security adviser jake sullivan is out with a warning. >> we're in the window where something could happen at any time. >> it certainly dials up the stakes of the diplomatic chess game. france's president is meeting with vladimir putin in moscow and president biden will meet with germany's chancellor in just a few hours at the white house. what will it take to reach a diplomatic conclusion to this crisis and avoid invasion? also right now, jury selection under way in the federal hate crimes trial of the three men convicted of killing ahmad arbery. the latest from that courthouse in georgia. plus, the grand old party going after its own. republicans kra cracking down on dissent in the ranks, censuring

liz cheney and adam kizinger. we start with courtney kube at the pond and matt bradley is on the ground in kyiv and i want to bring in ellen farkas as well, former us assistant deputy of defense for russia, ukraine and eurasia. you're learning they have 70% of the forces they need for an invasion. what do we know about really where we are, when could russia mass the remaining troops, what would an invasion look like? >> the 70% figure that's where they are for a full-scale

invasion of ukraine. at this point what they have surrounded around the country on the border right now is enough for some sort of an invasion or an incursion just on a slightly smaller scale. that's an important distinction. what we have heard according to a source familiar with this new intelligence and military assessment is that they have about 83 battalion tactical groups around the border right now and they have another 14 heading in in the near future. that puts them in the neighborhood of about 100 btgs. if they are looking for a full-scale invasion, that is very close to the number that the assessment says they would need, somewhere about 110 to 120 total btgs. on the timeline, we've heard a lot in recent weeks about the ground being a factor and weather being a factor. at this point mid february, around february 15th, the belief is the ground would be adequately frozen for tracked vehicles, tanks, to be able to

move in. that's the window that these officials are talking to us about, a window of somewhere in the naked of february 15th to february 20th, 21st, for a potential invasion to begin. it's important to point out russia has moved a very important strategic exercise, its nuclear forces, they have moved it from the fall to mid month right around the same time. the question is would they complete that exercise that could include firing cruise missiles, even an intercontinental missile, would they complete that exercise before potentially moving into ukraine? that is an assessment that they would likely do that, which puts the timeline again mid to late february for a potential invasion, if that happens. it's also very, very important to point out the officials do not yet know whether vladimir putin has made the final decision to invade. we are also hearing more about casualties if that happens.

in the event of a full-scale invasion, so vladimir putin taking the whole country over, we could see in the neighborhood of 25 to 50,000 ukrainian civilians killed and wounded in that eventuality. >> those are sobering numbers. give us your take on what you've just heard but also we've got that new video in this morning of u.s. troops landing in poland and whether you think that could be significant and play into any possibility of a diplomatic solution to this? >> yeah, i mean, chris, naul what courtney is describing is vladimir putin can mount a full-scale attack and can still do a lot of other more minor things -- they're not minor when

you're invading your neighbor, but he can go and take more territory in the east, shore up crimea's position by taking some territory near crimea. there are a lot of things he can do. he can actually choose to do nothing and have the troops on the border. to get to your point about the u.s. troops arriving in the region, on nato territory, i think we are putting pressure on vladimir putin right now because the biden administration and our european allies, we're coming up with a very dynamic response. i think if every day we signal our resolve, vladimir putin will have to think twice because we really do have a united political front, as you might have mentioned or you may be mentioning soon, the german chancellor is coming to town today. there are a lot of other political moving parts so there's not a forgone conclusion there's going to be a full-blown war.

not even that is 100% certain. >> across ukraine's border in belarus drills are expected this month. what are you seeing and hearing so close to russia's border? >> if you're watching around the city and talk to people here, they're remarkably calm. they don't seem to be bothered at all by intelligence assessments or claims, especially from foreigners that there is going to be this imminent invasion. a lot of people barely conceal their irritation with the constant calls for war that they hear coming from the west. a lot of people think vladimir putin is not going to invade and that this is drummed up by western media and we heard that from the minister of defense last night. a day after that chilling intelligence assessment that we were just hearing about, he said

"it is the duty of the military to calculate all possible scenarios, even the worst, and to do everything possible to neutralize threats. this is happening now. the probability of a significant escalation as of today continues to be assessed as low." that's remarkable from a defense minister of a country that has a noose and its neck right now. that's reflected in the streets. people are not that concerned. he called out the foreign media as taking this hysterical sky is falling posture and that's something a lot of people resent when it comes to foreigners coming in telling them they're about to be invaded.

russia invaded in 2014 and there still are separatists -- that might be why they're so blaise. >> what do you make of that statement in. >> it's really complicated. i did hear one thing from the ukrainian minister of defense estimating that the numbers had to be higher, but i think they are those numbers that courtney mentioned at the outset where those 30 battalion task groups are coming to the border soon so they may change what they're saying. but they don't want to alarm their people. i think that's important to note. part of putin's game is to see whether the government in kyiv can crack.

if he can make the government capitulate, then he doesn't have to invade. they don't want all the investment, all the money to flee the country because they think they're going to be occupied by russia. so i think it's harder for them there. for us, we have to let the american people know, let the world know what russia's doing because it's our only chance to try to stop vladimir putin. >> and we just heard this mentioned by evelyn, germany's new chancellor meeting with president biden in just a few hours. he tells the "washington post" that the response to russia will be united and decisive if ukraine is invaded but, look, you know this, germany's refused to supply lethal weapons to ukraine to bolster their troop presence in eastern europe or even say which sanctions it would support against russia. so talk about what the president hopes to achieve at this meeting. >> well, chris, a u.s. official previewing today's meeting stressed that there was a much

broader and substantive agenda for these two leaders as schultz comes to the white house for the first time to meet with president biden. that assessment that courtney is reporting on provides a stark back drop as germany trying to pin down what commitments it's willing to make in military aid and economic sanctions. germany has been seen as something of a weak link in efforts by the west to present a united front, to deter russia from an invasion. but biden understands that all politician are local. he's leading a very fragile coalition, so an opportunity for biden face to face to see how far schultz is willing to more here. president biden spoke with french president macron. think about who schultz has replaced. angela merkel worked with four different u.s. presidents for such a long time, the glue that held europe together in

confronting russia. now it appears that that mantle has changed to other hands. so president biden will be using it to show they are arm in arm in aiming to deter russia from invasion. u.s. officials saying that's not necessarily inevitable at this point but certainly are preparing for it. >> so you have these diplomatic things going on but there's also internal pressure. former ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul, highlighted a rare bit of pushback against putin from a top retired russian general who said an unprovoked invasion of ukraine will turn russia into an international pariah and threaten russia. ambassador mcfaul tweeted "this is a big deal. at one time this general was one of the most respected and hawkish leaders in the military of defense. russian leaders don't usually

get involved in public policy debates, especially ones like this general. >> that is huge. i couldn't see the general's name. it doesn't matter what the russian people think in their system. what matters is the elites around putin, it's a very small circle, but they're the people that will advise him. in 2014/15, i was in the situation room with my colleague, many now who are helping president biden, we watched as putin was taking away more ukrainian territory. in 2015, there was a very bloody time period, a lot of fighting going on and the russians held a meeting and we thought they would advance further militarily and they didn't.

they do have these conversations and they do make decisions, ultimately putin is the final decision-maker but people around him can have an impact. russian generals do not speak out publicly and they're usually standing next to the president just nodding, which isn't even speaking. so the fact that he has made this comment tells me that they are worried and they should be worried because any kind of incursion into ukraine will cost them lives. >> the name of the general, i don't know if it's familiar to you, that's the name of the general. thank you very much. we appreciate all of you being with us. we'll have much more to talk about on this front in the weeks ahead. right now jury selection has started in the federal hate crimes trial of the three men convicted of the ahmaud arbery

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right now jury selection is under way in a federal hate crimes trial against the three men convicted of killing ahmaud arbery. this second trial will focus on whether the actions by father and son, travis and gregory mcmichael and william brian were racially motivated leading up to arbery's killing. the trial is moving forward after they withdrew their pleas last week when a judge rejected them. so they have already been under a state trial. they were sentenced to life in prison. explain how this federal trial fits in. >> well, chris, good morning. this is going to look different because issues of race are going to come to the forefront of the trial in the way we didn't see in the state trial.

federal prosecutors have the burden of proving the three men, as you said, who have already been found guilty in ahmaud arbery's murder, now federal prosecutors are going to try to convince a jury that they chased him down and ultimately killed him back in 2020 because of his race and that they were guilty of violating his civil rights it in the process. they're going to be trying to introduce things like text messages, social media posts, to kind of give jurors insight into what they say is a racist mindset. they're going to try and introduce that in the course of this trial. those are things we didn't see during the state trial. certainly one thing we're going to be watching for when it comes to that. the other thing of course is this is now going to be the second trial. tremendously emotional for ahmad arbery's family, his mother

specifically. she's not here in the jury selection process. we understand she will likely be here for the trial. they say, yes, it's emotional to sit through a trial again but she said that what she wants to do if it means ultimate justice for her son. >> thanks. this morning a moratorium on no-knock warrants after 22-year-old amir locke was shot three times yesterday. locke was not named on the warrant and had no criminal record. the minneapolis police department released this photo which appears to show locke with a gun in his hand. they blurred the faces of the officers involved. we want to warn you, the video

you're about to see is disturbing. >> get on the ground! [ bleep ] [ gunfire ] >> shaquille brewster joins us. what do we know? >> we did hear from the parents over the course of the weekend at one of the many protests that we saw in minneapolis that took place despite the frigid temperatures really all through the weekend. one thing that they have been highlighting is that he had no criminal record. they say amir was a deep sleeper, that he was a friendly person and that he didn't deserve to die last week. i want you to listen to what we heard from the parents. >> how dare you take my son from

me and his mother? how dare you? what gives you the audacity to think that you are god? who told you that, that you were the judge and the jury and executioner? >> reporter: meanwhile, the investigation into this shooting continues. it's being led by the county attorney and state attorney general, keith ellison. they'll be the ones that make a possible charging decision if they feel the evidence leads to that. there's still many things we don't know about the entire situation. we don't know what the original investigation was, what led police to that apartment, who were they searching for? we also know it's a no-knock warrant that was executed but what was not clear was how it became a no-knock warrant. apparently the st. paul plid, which asked minneapolis to conduct this search of the apartment, they didn't request a no-knock warrant.

it was eventually upgraded to that status. there's many questions that you still have. you mentioned that the mayor of minneapolis has put a moratorium of no-knock warrant and is calling in experts to reevaluate that policy and create a policy. we have officials in minneapolis asking for patience as there are many upset over the killing. thank you, shaquille brewster. >> some worry that the gop are less worried about the elections than making donald trump happy. what it could mean for the mid terms next. happy what it could mean for the mid terms next

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ever wonder what everyone's doing on their phones? they're banking, with bank of america. the groom's parents? they just found out they can redeem rewards

for a second honeymoon. romance is in the air. like these two. he's realizing he's in love. and that his dating app just went up. must be fate. and phil. he forgot a gift, so he's sending the happy couple some money. digital tools so impressive, you just can't stop banking. what would you like the power to do? do you think it's going to pass? >> i think absolutely is going to pass. some people will say it's not enough and others will say it's too much. >> that was senator manchin talking about the election overall bill, a revision of the 1887 electoral counteract, a little-known law that former president trump and his allies tried to use to overturn the 2020 election. trump still insists that former

vice president mike pence could have overturned the election, pushing longtime loyalist pence to make his most forceful statements against his old boss calling trump wrong on that and warning that the future of the country is at stake. garrett haake has more on this for us. what's the latest on negotiations and what more can you tell us about the changes they're looking to make? >> reporter: chris, this bipartisan group believes this 19th century law is unclear, that it leaves itself open to the interpretation used by former vice president. there's also talk about raising the threshold to challenge the results of any state. you might remember when you had one senator challenging the results from that state, you forced the counting to break off

into counting in separate states. they want to raise the threshold. there could be reform around how votes are counted, both in the states and washington. added to this but they're in the very early, early stages of developing ideas, let alone legislative language making that prediction a bit bold for legislate that isn't actually legislation yet. >> well, optimism on capitol hill. >> garrett haake, thank you so much for that. i know you'll keep us posted. deep new fissures are on full display right now after the rnc called the work of the january 6th committee called the activities -- republicans censured adam

kizinger and liz cheney. >> it's a defining moment for the senate or house leader. good to see you guys. so, david, we'll talk about the politics and political implications of what we saw happen over the weekend but in terms of what the republican party stands for, the party of lincoln and ronald reagan, is this a defining moment for republicans? >> it is. the trump chapter has been. rereshaped the party in his image and that image is one that advanced essentially an authoritarian approach to undermining a free and fair election. the rnc affirmed that at their meeting. it is a defining chapter for the rnc, a shameful one and i think

history will recall kizinger and cheney and it will recall trump with shame. >> what concerns, jonathan, are you hearing about the rnc bringing the concern to january 6th instead of they want to focus on biden and democratic policies? >> it's basic politics 101. elections are about the future. even when there's nostalgia or sent sentimentality. republicans are concerned if

they get mired or fighting about an election that is lost, in 2024 they will be missing the points of talking to the voters. >> david, so politics, not surprised to see tweets. what does the disconnect in the party mean and what does his potential statement tell you about his plans? >> this is a remarkably stupid moment for the rnc for exactly the political reasons you highlight. politics is supposed to be about an add i tiff exercise, you're supposed to grow coalitions to raise the party. the foolishness of where the rnc is they were coming off a time

that was very good for them. they can talk about joe biden and inflation and the power of talking about masks and regulations in schools, wherever you believe the right answer is on that, it is benefiting republicans in this moment. what they've decided do is instead, as jonathan said, go back and look at the last election and show themselves for who they are when they could be highlighting to the american people that they are a contrast to the current biden administration and democratic congress because that worked in virginia and it likely would work in november if they stuck to that script. >> jonathan, let me read to you what "the wall street journal" editorial board wrote. quote, the conventional wisdom now is that mr. trump controls the republican party and can have the 2024 nomination if he wants it but someone should remind voters that mr. trump ended as a three-time election loser. he mobilized democrats against him in historic numbers to cost the gop the house in 2018, then the white house in 2020 and

finally two georgia senate seats in 2021. what do you see as the impact on republicans -- not just republicans running but how democrats can use that to their advantage? >> i believe "the wall street journal" editorial board is trying to give some moral support to republicans who would oppose trump. they may also be goading trump into running by calling him a loser repeatedly. i think the democratic party, much like the republican party, is better off not focusing on the last election and better off focusing on what it is people need and how the party can deliver that if given power. that said, democrats are in a tough position and they're somewhat divided with what was going on before the election

that led to these abnormalities that led to a coup attempt and ultimately could put donald trump back in the presidency and yet, again, i think most voters can't name the three branches of government. so it's often times more about what a political leader can do for them. >> and i guess to that point i think it's not very hard, david, to imagine writing an ad saying, you know, legitimate political discourse and showing the pictures and what actually happened, the violence, the trying to overthrow essentially the government on january 6th. but i guess the question is does that trump foo and what happened on january 6 resonate with voters or does it not matter and all and it going to be about inflation and covid? >> it's a great question. it's very much a reflection of who we are as a cult, whether or not a violent attempt to

overthrow an election informs people votes. in virginia, it was an issue but not one of the top three or four. democrats will have to do two things at the same time, be on the right side of history and vetting the january 6th coup and hold people accountable and meet the voters where they are now, and that is around gas prices and inflation and that's where the voter is. the democrats have to do two things at the same time. they have to hold the actors juror january 6th accountable, including president trump but they've got to meet voters on the issues that resonate today. >> remember -- >> a crowded field of candidates, a celebrity in the running and the trump factor. it's all making pennsylvania's senate primary one of the most competitive races in the

country. we'll get a preview. plus, kids as young as 5 have been able to get the covid vaccine since september but most haven't. i'm going to talk the principal of an elementary school in washington, d.c. about how he's working to get skeptical parents to get their kid to take the shot. ts to get their kid to take the shot this is the sound of nature breathing. and this is the sound of better breathing. fasenra is a different kind of asthma medication. it's not a steroid or inhaler. fasenra is an add-on treatment for asthma driven by eosinophils. it's one maintenance dose every 8 weeks. it helps prevent asthma attacks, improve breathing, and lower use of oral steroids. nearly 7 out of 10 adults with asthma may have elevated eosinophils.

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how ingrezza affects you. other serious side effects include potential heart rhythm problems and abnormal movements. it's nice people focus more on me. ask your doctor about ingrezza, #1 prescribed for td. learn how you could pay as little as zero dollars at ingrezza.com. pretty now the race for the pennsylvania senate seat soon to be vacated by republican pat toomey is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched this cycle. former president trump's shadow looms large over the race because he has yet to endorse anyone. dasha just traveled to the state committee meeting. these are always interesting. this is interesting from what you were told by some of the candidates but also what didn't happen. tell us. >> yeah, chris. this weekend the committee

meeting they did not endorse a candidate. now, from my conversations with committee members, there was an expectation that this year's meeting with end without an endorsement since there are simply so many candidates, and that means, chris, that the field remains wide open and of course the former president has yet to endorse anyone as well. he had endorsed sean parnell but he dropped out late last year. the meeting was closed to the press this time around but we were able to speak to four of the candidates between close door meetings. sara huckabee sanders showing up. he grew up in the commonwealth but has lived in connecticut in recent years and was registered to vote there as recently as

2020 and we're told he is currently registered in pennsylvania. i asked dr. oz what he tells voters who are confused by his presence in the race. >> i want republican primary voters to be skeptical, kick the tires, ask me hard questions, kick off my campaign. everyone knows who i am but they don't know what i stand for with regard to their most important issues. find out. i agree with you on inflation, with the problems we're having with our schools and then come on down. i've done my homework. >> oz was also registered to vote in new jersey in 2020 and voted absentee. and jeff bartos says he hopes they look to grass roots

campaigns as an alternative to the noise. we have a lot to look out for in the coming months, chris. >> dasha burns, who will be spending a lot of time in the state of pennsylvania, including exclusive interviews with some more of those candidates today on "meet the press daily," 1:00 right here. thank you. great reporting. we appreciate it. >> texting, nagging, cajoling, whatever it takes. i'll talk to an elementary school teacher in d.c. who is making it his personal parents mission to get parents to vaccinate their children. mission to get parents to vaccinate their children ...but with the business side... ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff and know where your business stands.

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this morning georgia gubernatorial candidate stacey abrams is facing new criticism over a photo in which she appears without a mask, posing alongside masked school children. the "atlanta journal constitution" reports the photo was posed to twitter by a school that abrams visited friday. her campaign manager responded to reports about the photo reading in part "she wore a mask to the event and removed it at the podium so she could be heard

by students watching remotely and for photos, but only with folks who were masked." "the atlanta journal constitution" reports video of the event shows abrams arrived at the podium, wearing a mask, taking it off just before arriving wearing the mask, taking it off just before she speaks. just seconds ago, new jersey governor phil murphy wrote this on twitter. effective march 7th, the statewide mask mandate in schools will be lifted, balancing public health with getting back to some semblance of normalcy is not easy, but we can take the responsible steps with growth in vaccinations. here's how "the new york times" reported it. ever since the federal government authorized the coronavirus vaccine for children 5 through 11 nearly three months ago, mr. kipp has been calling

the school's parents, texting, phoning nagging, cajoling daily. it's good to see you. it's been ten days since the story ran in "the new york times." how's your plan working? >> well, we're pushing ahead. we had our last clinic on friday, we got the wildcats' shots in arms. we're over 80% and shooting for 100%. >> over 80% is 50 points higher than the national average in that age group. we've had a lot of doctors on this program and they've talked about how they've gotten most people vaccinated through one-on-one conversations by listening, not judging. what did you find works for you? what is working for your you. >> that's exactly right. it's one-on-one, face-to-face.

every parent, and i speak of myself as a garrison parent of two wildcat sons, we want to know our kids are going to be safe and okay. i speak to the parents on that level and assure them over 200 wildcats have gotten the shots with no ill side effects and they're safer for it and also just address when it comes up misinformation that may have been heard along the way that their child will be infertile or it will alter their dna, no, that's not the case. >> you mentioned misinformation and correcting things people have heard that are not right, and we mentioned how politically fraught vaccines have become, masks have become. frankly i think it's difficult

enough. how complicated has it been to navigate the politics that swirl around the pandemic from the start and do what you need to do to keep kids safe so you can get them educated? >> i try to leave politics to the side. they're wrapped up in medical and scientific ones these days, but it shouldn't be that way. my priority is to keep kids in school and safe and healthy so they can get their hearts and minds stronger so they can thrive. that's all we want for our children. we've seen firsthand what happens when children can't be in school. we're never going back to that. we know it can be done safely, we're doing it safely, and shots in arms is a major step forward toward that, the end of the pandemic, and every child thriving, and we're going to push forward regardless. >> one of the things we're seeing, i guess, in another era,

we might have thought, well, kids don't want to get a shot, it's scary, you see a needle, don't look, that kind of thing, but we've done interviews with these kids, and it's so really va torrey that they're saying they're doing it because i want to keep my grandma and grandpa safe, i want to play with my friends. they're very matter of fact and surprisingly understanding with what's going on here. is that what you're finding? tell us about how actually the kids are reacting? >> absolutely, chris. that's been our experience as well. kids are tough and brave and resilient, and sometimes we as grown-ups get more worked up than we need to because they go in as they would for any pediatrician's checkup and they get a quick stick and they get their popsicle and popcorn and they're happy as clams. so, you know, i think the grown-ups could take a page from the kids' book, what's the big

deal, let's get our shots, and keep it pushing. >> finally, you heard the breaking news governor phil murphy has decided. they don't need masks anymore. they have high vaccination rates, case numbers are going down. is that something you're looking forward to given the high number of vaccinations you have in your school? >> absolutely. i think we all look forward to a day when we can unmask and just breathe freely and see each other, smiles and all of that. but i will defer to the public health experts on when they da will be, and if it means we mask for the remainder of this year, so be it. the most important thing is the children are in schools surrounded by their teachers and friends. if masks help do that this year, we'll do it. >> mr. kipp, every school should reach out and have someone who has that one-on-one kind of

relationship with families. thank you for doing it, and thank you for taking the time to talk to us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. in just a few minutes, we expect to see secretary of state antony blinken. he's going to be holding a press conference. earlier this morning secretary blinken talked about how russian state-owned companies are holding back national gas supplies which are making energy prices very high in europe. we expect to hear much more on that and the ukraine crisis when secretary blinken speaks to reporters in a couple of minutes. that's when "andrea mitchell reports" starts next. when "andl when "andl reports" starts next but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be.

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good day, everyone. this is "andrea mitchell reports" inway. france's president macron is meeting with president putin at this hour, leading the european effort to avert war in ukraine. putin and macron are expected to speak following their meeting, this as president biden meets at the white house with germany's new leader for the first time sim olaf scholz took over for angela merkel. risking a weakening of the alliance against a growing russian threat just as the national security adviser toke chuck todd on "meet the press." >> we're at the brink of a