you can catch me on msnbc from 3:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern. coming up shaun white joins my colleague, andrea mitchell, next. ♪ good day, everyone. this is "andrea mitchell reports" in washington as president biden warns a russian invasion of ukraine is, quote, distinctly a possible and that u.s. would respond with crippling sanctions. >> if russia commits this breach by invading ukraine, responsible nations around the world will not hesitate to respond. we do not stand for freedom where it is at risk today will surely pay a steeper price tomorrow. >> but russian response sending mixed signals. the u.s. and nato saying there's no hard a evidence they're pulling back. >> well, there's what russia says and what russia does. and we haven't seen any pullback

of its forces. we continue to see critical units moving towards the boarder, not away from the border. the cdc is expected to follow the lead soon, the leadoff kbvrs across the country and ease guidelines on indoor masking as early as next week. a response to the nearly 82% drop in covid cases across the country. >> we know you have many questions regarding what prevention strategies are necessary for this moment. we'll encourage prevention measures when they are most needed to protect public health and our hospitals. if and when we update our guidance, we'll communicate that cheerly and it will be based on the data and the science. >> and i'll be joined by one of america's most popular olympians, shaun white. after capping his olympic beijing with a farewell performance in the half pike.

rngts we begin with the crisis in ukraine. joining me former chief correspondent, richard engel and white house correspondent, peter alexander. russian claims they have moved troops back. what is it the reality on the ground, if you could clear it up and president biden's message that the u.s. is not a threat to russia. is that getting through at all on russian media? >> reporter: i wish i could clear it up but we're seeing more claims from russia today. more footage saying that russian troops are leaving ukraine's boarder borbders and that their military exercises are wrapping up and as they wrap up, they're going home. this is the second day russia has put out footage. yesterday it was military vehicles going on to trains. and you played a clip from the secretary of state continue to say they don't see evidence of it. in fact, it's even commercially

available satellite imagery won't approve that russia is pulling back. so, they're taking a strong stance on this, which the u.s. andinatee have been doing from the very start. every time russia make as claim, they're coming out and either disputing it or putting out u.s. intelligence even before russia has a chance to make a its clime. and in ukraine, people like 32 strategy. today is what they're calling unity day. this is born because of the situation we're in right now. today it was rumored that this would be the day that russia would invade. the had been reports in the media that if there was going to bow a russian invasion, it would happen today. obviously it didn't happen. the day's not over but hasn't happened yet and in response, ukrainians decided to hold rallies in cities all across the country, flying their flag.

president zelensky has been something on a tour going do different cities in the country today. he's going to continue the tour tomorrow. and people at the unity day rallies seem to be confident. they like the strategy that the u.s. and nato are pursuing right now. they like more weapons are coming. they like that the entire world is focussed on the crisis in a way that it hasn't been focussed on the eight-year low grade war with russia. so, here there is a real sense and maybe it is wishful thinking that the worst may have passed. with all the eyes trained on russia and nato united in way it hasn't been that it will be difficult for vladimirputen to launch a blitz across the country. >> one can only hope. thank you so much. and peter, the president made it clear yesterday there will be economic costs here at home as well.

once the u.s. would sanction russia to punish russia, clearly there could be retaliation from russia. you know what they would do. and even though we don't depend on russian oil, it's only 3%. it's a global market. prices around the world would go up. >> reporter: i think you're exactly right. the president did detail that potential for american sacrifice. certainly in the american pocketbook. the u.s. gets very little of its oil from russia. i think roughly 3%. the invasion and sanctions from the u.s. at the would follow would likely drive up the already high oil and gas prices around the world in the global market. that fuels inflation and that has a ripple effect for us. right now and americans are seeing this for themselves. drivers in the u.s. are paying an avlerage for gas per gal often $3.50. that's a dollar more than just a year ago.

the highest it's effectively been in airgt years. a war in ukraine would send those figures higher. i pressed the white house and they say all these options on the table to address -- that all the options are on the table right now to address rising oil prices. the u.s., you'll remember, late last year, released 50 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve. there's still another 10 million schedule for a date for release. and temporarily suspending the federal gas tax. that's more than 18 centers are for every gallon you pay. several democrats like kelly of arizona, maggie of new hampshire they've pulgsed the idea. still it's getting a cool reception broadly speaking in congress. >> and with me is former cia director and secretary of defense in the obama

administration and former white house chief of staff. and vladimir putin's troops have been there for weeks. what do you think he's weighing right now? he says he's withdrawing and the state department says they don't see signs of withdrawal and in fact, they sooi see signs his troops are moving closer in some parts. >> andrea, i think this is still a very dangerous moment. and the possibility of something happening like an invasion is still very real. problem is that this may very well be round one. in what will be ea long, long military and diplomatic standoff between the united states and russia that, in many ways, could determine the fuch rb of our relationship and of the ukraine. the fact is we have disrupted

putin at this point. he usually likes to operate in the dark. we forced him to operate in the own. we've made clear he's going to pay a price. i think that has disrupted his strategy. i think the president made that clear that we're unified with our i allies. we're going to continue to stand strong and make sure he's going to pay a price. frors i think we're still dealing with 150,000 russians on the ukrainian border and we're dealing with the possibility that they have the 30uer to invade and probably over them with the the ukraine if they wanted to. >> and i just want to update everyone and bring you in on this experience as former defense secretary because the military, the pent gain has just

announced that three u.s. navy poseidon surveillance planes had close encounterers with russian aircraft, they say, over the mediterranean this past weekend and there's been a comtlant that this has been unprofessional intercepted. that u.s. flight crews were in international waters, air spals at the time of intercepts and that we've made our concern known to russian officials. which make as your point that we don't know what it's goring to happen. they have as many as 150,000 troops amassed on the borders. surrounded on three sides, effectively a naval blockade and elsewhere, beyond this immediate region, there can be incidents. we're at a very tense stage around the world. >>ual, you know bb look. we're looking at what is probably the largest

concentration of military forces in one area since world war ii. 150,000 russians. a number of their warships, combat planes have been on the border. we have reinforced our position innato and prothis is a heavy concentration of miltitary power. what happens in that situation could bow a dangerous thing. could be one missed judgment i one musthak. one bad designificance and war could break out. so, this is, still a very dangerous moment for, not just the ukraine, but for the world. >> how do you view the match up

between military, when russia grabbed crimea and the insurgency one expects. swee the emotions today on unity day, this holiday zelensky declared. how do they mauch against what russia has, if russia chooses to invade? >> well,ium wrr glad we've provided defensive weapons and training and continuing to provide arms to the ukrainians and i'm glad to see the ukrainians sfweem much better prepared if an invasion should happen. let's not kid anybody. you have 150 russian forces there with tanks, with weapons. they could indeed conduct a blitz screen that could move all the way to kyiv and probably

most of that country in a very short period of tiemt. the story here is that it still could result in a very prolonged war if the ukrainians are prepared for a resistance, which i think they are. so, the price russia would pay is being stuck in a prolonged war with -- within the ukraine. that ultimately would undermine russia itself. i think right now the ukraine with k put up a fight. if they want to take ukraine, they probably could. i think the price russia will pay and that the united states has made clear they will pay is probably what is making putin hesitate at this point and try see whether or not there may be a diplomatic way to resolve these issues. i think putin is concerned about one thing. and that's democracy in the

ukraine. if the ukraine remains a strong democracy, it will send a signal to the people in russia that this is what their country could look like without putin. he's afraid of that and that's, frankly, an issue that is a lot more difficult to resolve than security issues that are now on the table. >> there have been reports of cyber attack as in ukraine as recent as yesterday. could have been another independent actsers. but in the fast he's done that. what are the risks? should we retal aiate and cyber against moscow eif they attack or start an inization the cyber attack against ukraine? and does that risks and escalation you've been warning since yvl krr known you and certainly since cia director days about our cyber dfrss needing be to strengthened? >> i think what you're seeing is

that the russians are going to try to operate from their hybrid war playbook that they've used in the past. frankly, that's been very effective for them in the past. they've used cyber. phoney military people and green men that they used in the crimea. the reality is we're in a high-tech world and cyber can be ea very effective weapon at paralyzing another country. so, i wpdant be surprised if russia indeed was using cyber to see if they can disrupt the ukraine and i think the president made this clear that if they do use cyber, that we are prepared to retaliate as well using cyber. i think that's probably the more likely scenario in the next few weeks is you start to see a lot more use of high tech and cyber

as a way to see if you can kind of throw the other side off balance in what is a very different world. i know we're talking about convengszal war but this is also the 21st century and i think wars of the 21st century are largely going to be played out on a cyber battlefield. >> and if we retaliate, can't that blow back on us very quickly? >> you know, i think we need to send a signal to the russians that we have incapability to use cyber in a way that can disrupt their infrastructure, disrupt their command and control, disrupt their communications. they need to know that they will pay a price if they use cyber. and so, for that reason, i think the united states needs to be fully prepared to respond if

necessarily. >> as always, it is very good to have you on. thank you so much. appreciate it. >> good to be with you. and the war footing. is russia ready to retreat or is that rhetoric? that's next. r is that rhetoric? that's next. check out this vrbo. oh man. ♪♪ come on. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ what can i du with less asthma? with dupixent i can du more... ♪♪

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secretary of state, blinken contradicting the claims that it's pulled back troops and warning putin could act at any moment. joining us is former democratic senator, cochair of the nuclear threat initiative and former nato supreme ally commander and msnbc analyst. we have found that around the clock diplomacy for weeks now has perhaps deterred, perhaps delayed but has found a way to really defuse the crisis and get the russian troops back. so far not. what more should the u.s. be doing, could the u.s. do to convince russia not to invade ukraine? >> i think we have to tell the russians we're willing to li listen to their legitimate security concerns and i think the russians need to pull back their heavy forces from the border.

pulling troops back is not enough because they can fall back on their equipment. so, moving heavy forces out is a signal we should watch for. >> let me follow up on that. should we start agreeing to negotiate the terms of any future ukraine entry into nato since there's nothing imminent, not going to happen for six years or a decade. they haven't proved their democracy is strong and they've fought corruption. should we begin talking about that or, as the u.s. has been claiming, is that a nonstarter because it undermines the role of nato? >> well, russia should not have a veto. ukraine and nato need to make decision about the future decision. i've always felt that the threshold question would be, should be by nato membership is

whether this would increase stability in europe or whether it would decrease stability and possibly lead to war. and other considerations are very relevant. can we defend and what is the country going to do to defend itself? and what are the european allies going to do? i think it's important we not go back to the position in the '70s and '80s where we were relying on the early first use of nuclear weapons because our defenses were inadequate to defend without relying on nuclear weapons. that's a risky policy for the whole world. erse >> and was the nato expansion a mistake? did it make us more vulnerable and nato less secure? >> i don't think so. and he's laid it out very well. i think bringing in astonia, lat

via, bulgaria, i think bringing them to nato meets all the criteria senator nun just articulated. they served under my command. they're forces, professional, capable. i also agree we ought to tread very carefully but we cannot seed the membership card to vladimir putin. that is not going to work. that's not going to be stabilizing and i think if we want to come down in a diplomatic way, we need to put other options for conversation on the table including conventional forces your. control of cruise missiles. the ability to perhaps bring back the open sky treaty. vladimir putin has to make the decision he wants to talk, not go to war. >> senator nun, you've been so

instrumental in demilitarizing ukraine. they held the nuclear weapons for the former soviet union and they were dismantled. what concern do you have about the tactical weapons in the battlefield? >> i wish we could get rid of all tactical nuclear weapons on both sides. the russian side as well as the whole region west as well as the admiral said. i totally agree. get rid of the short-range intermediate range missiles. that's in the interest of both countries in the region. we've got to focus on building mutual security and the bad signal is russia was part of an agreement with the united kingdom and the united states when ukraine gave up the physical possession, they did not have operational control of

their weapons but gave up physical possession of their weapons and that was a big move. in exchange their security and sovereignty was recognized by all tlooef countries. and now it's a bad signal when one is threatening to invade. so, that's a very bad signal and we've got to mainly focus on building mutual interest and trust in europe and there are a lot of mutual interests. to do that, we need define the security of all of europe. including certainly ukraine and russia. >> it's just the start of a very important conversation. thank you so much. and unmasking america. the cdc preparing new guidance as more states in major cities are lifting mask mandates ahead of time. but their decision might depend

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flb of states are siting the easing of the omicron surge. >> we want to give people a break from things like mask wearing when the metrics are better and have the ability to reach for them again should things worsen. >> and joining me now is former health policy director for the obama white house. what should the cdc by looking for as the bench mark for mask guidance and can it be done city by city, state by state? is that going to work? >> it's going to have to because so much is local. especially the numbers is and cases. new york city with much lower cases than other parts of upstate new york and briefly a what we need to do is align it with metrics that we can say are resulting in disease or symptomatic infexzs. hopefully they'll include availability of therapeutics.

now that i can prescribe treatments but i don't have enough. and looking at cases for 100,000 people and what's key here is i think what the doctor said, looking at what we need to put measures back in place. everyone knows we need to bring them off in some fashion soon but what do we do and look forward to bring them back on? >> of course, that creates a huge political problem for the president and a lot of governors and mayors who are really taking the lead. democratic governors and mayors and ignoring the mask mandates even as they're recommended. >> and i think it's very easy to criticize and point fingers and say the cdc is not doing enough. we've talked about this before. we have over 2,000 deaths that lagged. we have hospital systems where, even if you have mild covid, we don't have room to see you. i think this is a tension and a balance.

they're not in recommendations. not for accounting. what they're doing, i think, will help local jurisdictions. if you're confused, you don't know what to do, add into that looking on a website for your state. usually there's county level information. nbc news, mayo clinic. if you can't find it, try to find out what the case rates are in your area. i would love to see people talking masks off when we have les than 10 per 100,000 cases. it's days. >> that's good news and good advice. thank you so much. and an insider's view. former top officials from the white house, pentagon and cia discuss what might happen if russia does invade. how will the u.s. respond? what will it mean for the world? ? what will it mean for the world?

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top national security officials have been meeting in what they call tiger teams. to plan for prolonged stand off with russia or worst case an invasion of ukraine. we gathered former top national security officials who have done this kind of exercise themselves to consider possible scenarios. in a table top exercise by a nonprofit think take for their take on what vladimir putin might do next and how the u.s. should respond. inside our situation room, the exercise begins with a russian false flag attack in eastern ukraine to create a pretext to invade. at the table, retired admiral mike mullen. former undersecretary of defense, michelle. former cia director and retired

four-star general, david petraeus. and former national security advisor, tom donilon. >> i think the plan is to lay out what's clear. >> we should communicate to individuals in moscow that life is going to be very, very tough for you if you go into ukraine. you may be able to get -- you may even push the government out of kyiv but at the end of the day, we're going to make life hell for you if that's the case and with some experience as a counterinsurgent, we'll tell them what you have is not enough. this is what we invaded iraq with. it's nowhere near enough for a country with multiples the size of iraq and that should be clear. >> i think we need to folk thons

long-term price he's going to pay and figure out how to do that. to include one of the near-term objectives would be to get the narrow response force ready. >> one thing that's not been mentioned is to accelerate for refugees. this is the precursor to war and you've got to be ready for 10s of thousands of ukrainians to move across the border if they're attacked. >> reporter: until he pulls back, putin has multiple options. claiming self defense, could take out artillery and air strikes as his ground troops reach kyiv in days. >> call this an unprovoked invasion in ukraine . energy accounts for 36% of the russian budget. almost 50% is russian exports. so wk huge vulnerability for

putin. >> he'll good etwhat he didn't want, which is a substantial increase of forces on the border. then we have the question of if an insurgency arises, what is the role of the united states and nato? i have would argue they're going to do it directly. >> what is the state of president zelensky? is he determined to fight on? what about the conventional forces stlat been, as we surmised, been encircled? what about the partisan brigade? >> how much do we worry about escalation with russia? >> is he actually going to go all the way? it's the kind of thing that's focussed on regime change. you can move air forces and naval forces in a direction very quickly. >> if putin did topple ukraine's government and install a friendly regime, he could start withdrawing but demand

concessions from the u.s. and nato. >> you're in the situation room. what do we do? >> we're asking where the previous prime minister and president are. where is zelensky in particular? where is he physically but where is he mentally? is he willing to lead what will be a substaxal insurgency. >> even if 10% of the population decide toads fight that's going to be a very son substantial insurgency and there will be a real cost. russian soldiers being killed and so forth that i think could be a problem for putin. we should consider denial of service attacks on the russian misinformation machine. if they're perceived as an attack on leadership, that could escalate. so we have to be careful. >> that's a good point. we're nowhere where we need to

be to protect our critical health and financial risk. and it would be at risk and we'd have to start to think about the security arrangements. >> how long can he sustain troop on these borders? >> longer than we think. that's been my take for a long time. i think it would be foolish to think he couldn't sustain it for a significant amount of time. >> and top biden officials are working around the clock, knowing that once shots are fired, if a war did begin, inevitably people will die on both sides. and people will feel the economic pain throughout europe as well as at home. i'll have more on "nightly news" with lester holt. and president zelensky has unity day and down plays the russian threat. but what will he do if russia crosses its borders? o if russia crosses its borders?

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ukrainian flag at a stadium in kyiv. celebrations called for by president zelensky on a new unity day in response to reports this would be the day of the invasion as he continues to dedown play that event. ambassador, so much of the conversation has been dominated by russia or the u.s. how are ukrainians processing this? especially the cyber attacks we have not attributed to anyone in terms of responsibility. this is certainly against government ministries. >> it is. and it is concern. but you asked about the ukrainian people. as you showed there, they standing firm. starting at the top. i mean president zelensky, here's this young politician. standing up to president putin,

your kgb operative and in office for 20 and zelensky standing up to him with president biden with him. and that has demonstrated to the ukrainian people that they're ready to resist. they've been indicating they're ready to resist for weeks and month sdwhz training they've been showing. this has been very impressive. i talked to friends this morning about this day of unity and they say it's not just in kyiv. but it's all over the country. the yellow and blue ribbons and flags that you're showing there are all over the country. so, the ukrainian people, andrea, are standing firm. >> and what do we know about the defense secretary's meetings and whether there's any hard evidence of russian withdrawal? there are mixed signals coming but we're hearing from vek secretary blinken and the president that there's no sign of withdrawal.

>> yeah. defense secretary lloyd austin was at nato yesterday and now is in poland. he's headed to lithuania after that, where he's going to be meeting with baltic heads. at the moment, both the pentagon and others in the administration say they don't see any sign russian troops have begun to leave the border areas where some 150,000 of them have amassed. more are they seeing signs any of the weaponry russia has arrayed at the border has begun to -- vladimir putin has begun to move back. he says he's starting to end what russian defense minister sergey termed large-scale military exercises. whether they were that or not is open to debate. but the administration at this moment says they don't see -- they don't see the evidence.

but they're very hopeful. at the same time what did tony blinken say about what russia does and says are two different things. there is at this point that the administration is trusting what vladimir putin has said. >> helene, how concerning is what was reported from the pentagon today, what they're call an unprofessional intercept of three navy cruise surveillance planes? >> that's the sort of thing that the pentagon is always worried about because that's what could spark -- that's where things can easily go sideways. you don't plan for that, but when you have these massive armies, navies and air forces within range of each other, you can see things sparking and getting out of hand, and you get

into the area of unforeseen circumstances. that's one of the reasons why president biden, for instance, has not wanted to send american troops, he doesn't want to send troops there even to evacuate americans because, again, you can have things go sideways. >> indeed. ambassador and helene, thanks to both of you. and the olympics, snowboarding's greatest of all time, officially in retirement, shaun white, the three-time gold medalist joining us next. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. on msnbc.

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vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. we're on the precipice of a new era of snowboarding after an emotional high-flying farewell of the ages from the man who redefined the sport, shaun white, closing a chapter on his nearly 20-year career with his performance in beijing and his fifth and final olympics. joining us now is shaun white. first of all, congratulations. this is a thrill for all of us. >> thank you so much. >> to meet you virtually after watching you for so many years, flying tomato days. >> more hair back then. >> it's still great. take us to your emotional

moment, coming down the hill, helmet in hand, waving to the crowd. i'm reminded of the lou gehrig moment at yankee stadium. what was going through your head and your heart? >> i couldn't help picture this moment. i knew this day would come at some point when i was younger and told i couldn't do this forever. i was just so overwhelmed that i was actually living this moment. it was very surreal, but then very sweet in so many ways, because obviously, as a competitor, i wanted more out of that last run, but as i slid into the bottom area, all the other competitors had lined up which i didn't realize. they all said the most amazing things to me and congratulated me on my career. i didn't see that coming, and i got very emotional, overwhelmed by just looking at the legacy i'm leaving behind.

yeah, like what a way to say goodbye. so many athletes don't really get that opportunity in traditional sports. you get called into an office sometimes and they're like, hey, it's not working out, it's over, and you're kind of blind-sided, i think. talking to fellow athletes and friends of mine that i got to end it on my terms and had this amazing final goodbye was just incredible. >> for those of us at home watching, it was an emotional high point, bittersweet, of course, and all of us wondering how you felt. you're so young. maybe you don't feel it but you're so young. to be in a career -- in a sport that you redefined, you created it really. how do you view that transition, that passage? >> yeah, it's wild. i guess as i've gotten older, i've been able to take the time and look back and be proud of the moments. to win a gold med dam is

incredible. to make it to the olympics is incredible. to have won three gold medals and be attending mile fifth olympics at this point in my career, i'm looking around and all my competitors -- not so much my competitors but the coaches and the staff and the people that are there are all people i used to compete with. some had their kids on their shoulders. i'm thinking, wow, time has flown by, and i do have to stop and be so proud of what i've accomplished this far. i remember the halfpipes being dug with shovels when i started. there was no real future in the sport. to be a part of that growth and now major, major event at the olympics, i feel like i'm handing it off. it's in good hands now. i'm definitely not gone from the sport, but i'll be able to enjoy it on a different level now. >> have you thought about what's next for shaun white? >> yeah. with the help of my girlfriend and friends and family, make a

list and go through the list. what was amazing, probably third or second on the list, i had never attended a super bowl because i'm always so busy during the competitive season. i landed from china and went straight to the super bowl. so i got to check that off the list which felt great. there's a lot i'd love to do, personal things of just being around for birthdays and get-togethers and experiencing time with friends and family. i started this amazing brand with my brother. it's a lifestyle outerwear, active wear company and we're making snow boards and things like that. it's so exciting working with my brother. working with family is incredible, but it's a nice way to continue to be in the sport that i care so much about. i kind of get chills talking about it. but when i was younger i was given an opportunity by jake

burton from burton snow boards. it was my first board ever. that sparked this entire career for me. i can't help but think if i could be that for that next generation, and maybe part of me retiring was like, i was looking around, i don't want to beat these guys anymore, i want to sponsor them. not to sign them, but be a part of their career in a different way and help from that side of things. that's something i'm really looking forward to as well. >> america applause you, we applaud you. >> thank you. >> congratulations. you really are a superstar. >> thank you so much. >> thanks so much shaun white. >> awesome. >> and congratulations. speaking of superstars, chuck todd is up next with "mtp daily" right now. -- they've seen no proof backing up putin's claim that he's begun withdrawing troops.