hour. i'm chris jan sings. jose diaz-balart will pick up breaking news coverage right now. we begin with breaking news from the united nations where secretary of state tonebly blinker is expected to give a major speech this hour on escalating tensions between russia and ukraine. u.s. ambassador to the u.n., linda thomas-greenfield, says blinken is expected to talk about the gravity of the situation and paths to avoid a wider conflict. we'll bring you the secretary's remarks when they begin. there you see a live shot of the united nations. this comes as a senior administration official tells nbc news russia has actually increased its troop presence in eastern ukraine instead of reducing it, adding 7,000 to the 150,000 troops stationed on three sides of ukraine. moments ago as he left the white

house for a trip to ohio, president biden said the threat of a russian invasion is high. >> they have not moved any of the troops out. they've moved more troops in, number one. number two, we have reason to believe they are engaged in a false flag to have an excuse to go in. every indication we have is they're prepared to go into ukraine, attack ukraine. also breaking this morning, the state department said russia expelled deputy u.s. chief of mission to russia, bart gorman, the second most senior official. news of the expulsion came after russian-backed separatists and the ukrainian military accused each other of mortar and artillery attacks in eastern ukraine, including an attack on a kindergarten building. they say no children were in the building but several people including a ukrainian soldier were hurt.

ukraine's president called the shelling a big provocation. with me, erin mclaughlin in kyiv, founder and chairman of the renew democrats initiative and world chess champion and peter baker, msnbc political analyst. he's also co-author of "kremlin rising, vladimir putin's russia and the end of revolution." erin, what more have we been able to learn about the shelling in eastern ukraine? >> reporter: dozens of rounds were fired into multiple locations including the kindergarten in the government-controlled area of lieu hants. kindergartners were on the second floor of the kindergarten having breakfast at the time of the shelling. video provided by the police

shows the kindergartners evacuating the building. three kindergarten employees were injured in the incident and power to their town, half their town was taken out by the shelling. now, in turn, the russian-backed separatists are alleging that the ukrainian military was firing on their positions, although they provided no visual evidence that that was, in fact, the case. we know that the ukraine military is under order not to fire on the separatists except for self-defense because there is this pervasive concern here in ukraine that russia could be trying to create a pretext, an escalation in dons bass to create a pretext for a greater invasion. this comes on the day that the russian foreign minister provided russia's formal response to the u.s. proposal purt on the table three weeks ago to resolve this crisis. i was speaking to a former

adviser to president zelensky here in kyiv just a short while ago. he says that it is a russian negotiation tactic, to escalate a situation prior to going into a negotiation, though it's unclear at this point why the shelling is happening now, jose. >> peter, how does the shelling and the accusation that russia is adding troops instead of pulling them back change things, and specifically with the white house, the diplomatic efforts to try and resolve this issue diplomatically. >> reporter: obviously president biden would prefer to resolve this diplomatically. remember what we've seen in the last few weeks, the administration repeatedly warned about specific false flag plots they've detected, in other words, to create a pretext to go in. this shelling this morning could be the way to kind of draw ukrainians in to something that would then provide an excuse for

russians to intervene more forcefully than they already have. keep in mind they've already been there for the last eight years, and i think the fact that the president of russia and his kremlin advisers are saying they're pulling back when, in fact, there's no evidence of it, could be a way of trying to lull people into a false sense of complacency on the eve of what could be a genuinely intense military incursion of some sort. we don't know the answer to that, obviously. we're getting these conflicting signals and everybody is trying to read them and figure out what's happening in the head of vladimir putin. >> gary, how do you see putin's chess game vis-a-vis the entire world on ukraine? >> i always reject any comparison between putin's criminal activities and chess, because in chess we have rules. putin denies he has to abide by any rules.

i'm really concerned that the threat of full-blown invasion has been growing. while we should disregard any official statement from russian foreign minister or kremlin, because we should treat them with the presumption of guilt. anything they say is a lie until they prove otherwise. they have a record. listening to putin, we should take his warnings very seriously. a few days ago at the press conference with german chancellor olaf scholz, putin talked about genocide in donbas. making this comparison and implying that russia was in the position to save russian citizens -- let's not forget there are hundreds of millions that receive russian passports in the last eight years.

putin prepared the ground for this false flag operation. immediately after he made this statement, russian investigative media began digging so-called mass graves in dombas. >> gary, there are false flag operations and russia has a history of carrying these issues out. russian allies in srebrenica talking about genocide. the fact is that russia in the past and under putin, 2014, has never shied away from military incursions. do you think that we're really facing a possible military incursion into ukraine, garry? >> again, i say the risk is rising every day. we should also mention probably carpet bombing of aleppo and

other syrian cities. putin always denied ukraine sovereignty. yesterday lavrov talked about ukraine being under total u.s. control. ukraine is not seen as an independent state that should be treated with respect. taking into account all of putin's actions and recent statements and massive military buildup across the ukrainian border and basically surrounding ukraine by the perimeter, we should take every sign, every perilous sign with a great -- gravest, gravest concern. i'm waiting for secretary blinken to tell us about the u.s. position regarding, which i treat very likely, a russian attack. >> we'll be seeing that on msnbc as soon as tony blinken takes to the podium. peter, there are so many signs,

the administration has made a number of statements about russia's intentions, the potential false flag operations. does the white house feel it's making its case? has it made its case? >> i think one thing they've done successfully is calling out these false flag operations in advance rather than waiting for them to happen and trying to convince the world something happened. telling the world beforehand, we think they're trying to provoke something with secret forces or some sort of video or what have you, they have diminished the credibility of that false flag operation in advance which i think has complicated putin's calculations there. the rest of it, the threats of sanctions, the moving of troops to nato allies, all of that was predictable. i think calling them out on creating this pretext has probably been a surprise to the kremlin. something that's really interesting, ever since the soviet era, there's been this

sort of fidelity in moscow to the fiction of legalisms, that they work for ways to say they're following the law even if they're not. there's not a rule of law state, not a state that respects the rule of law. they try to create the fiction that they're following some sort of legal mandate, a legal justification. that would be, of course, preventing genocide as garry just talked about. that would be the kind of justification they would use. >> peter baker, gary kasparov, erin mclaughlin, thank you for being with us. senator bob menendez, chair of the foreign relations committee will be here to talk about the incidents in ukraine. plus the racist messages sent by the three men convicted of killing ahmaud arbery. you're watching jose diaz-balart. g jose

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14 past the hour. we're keeping a close eye on the united nations where secretary of state tony blinken is expected to speak at any time. we'll bring you those remarks when wep begin. now let's go to capitol hill where the senate could pass a non-binding resolution to show support for ukraine and warning russia about what could happen if it invades ukraine. joining me is bob menendez, chair of the foreign relations committee. senator, great to see you. a lot of big developments on the ukraine situation. reports of shelling in eastern ukraine, the white house saying russia is actually increasing its troops on the border, not decreasing them. what are you hearing? >> jose, from all accounts, it seems that vladimir putin is headed towards conflict instead

diplomacy. it seems not only has he not removed troops from the ukrainian border, but added several thousand troops to it. he's built a bridge over one of the rivers that is abutting ukraine. in addition to all of that, it seems his troops are being put into attack positions. so what happens in the eastern part of ukraine appears to be another false flag operation where russian troops or troops given a different status in terms of what they look like, but they're russian troops, ultimately create an attack against ukrainians in that part of the section to draw ukrainians into a conflict and then to have the russians respond to it. we've seen this picture several times. this is putin 101, and

unfortunately, i'm getting more and more concerned that the window for diplomacy has been shut by putin and his moving forward would be a tragic mistake for the ukrainians but also a tragic mistake for russia. >> so, senator, the sanctions package before russia makes any move is pretty much moot, right? so what is it that the senate, you all should or could be doing right now? >> well, two days ago the majority and minority leaders joined by the ten chairs and ranking members of the national security committees put out a strong statement of bipartisanship in support of ukraine's territorial sovereignty, assistance both lethal and non-lethal and committed to sanctions against russia if it invades. today senators shaheen and rob

portman, democratic and republican, supported by myself have the support to also express themselves on that. so the bottom line is we stand ready to support ukraine. we have been sending it lethal defensive weapons. we have the -- the administration has supported it financially with a billion dollar loan guarantee. it has coordinated the international community in a way i haven't seen in some time. i think where putin has miscalculated especially in the long term is europe is seeking to diversify its energy resources instead of depend on russia. nato has more than a thousand troops along the eastern border which he never wanted but has happened because of the threat he's created to ukraine. nato is stronger today in terms of a commitment of an alliance and the u.s.-european alliance,

transatlantic alliance is stronger today. i think everything we've done works against what he wanted to see. >> senator, you're a keen student of history. do you see any parallels with putin 2022 with any other times in our recent history? >> well, i take two takeaways, and that is in 2008 when george bush opened the door to the possibility to the countries of georgia and ukraine to have a long-term process to enter nato, putin went crazy. and in 2008 invaded georgia and took significant provinces of it. in 2014 when the ukrainians moved closer to european -- the european union, he invaded and annexed crimea. the response of the west was weak and he understood that i can do this and get away with it. what i say about this moment is

we cannot have a munich moment. we can't return to 1938 when chamberlin said let's give czechoslovakia to hitler thinking that would end his desires. this is the same. putin will not stop for so long as he thinks he can get away with it and suffer little consequences. that's why i authored the mother of all sanctions bill, that's why i'm going to continue to work with our republican colleagues. >> senator, you're also a member of the senate finance committee which is holding a hearing at this hour on customer service challenges at the irs. i think customer service and the irs are sometimes contradictory terms. right in the middle of tax season, taxpayers are having more trouble reaching the irs because the agency has a big staff reduction in recent years. what needs to be done to change this? >> well, the irs is an agency

that particularly, since the u.s. taxpayer depends upon it, both to meet its obligations and to get its refunds, ultimately has to work efficiently, and it's not. that's why i've read over six letters from the senate finance committee, the most recent one with 210 members from both parties and both houses saying, look, we expect the irs to do what every taxpayer expects it to do. number one, open the mail, process returns and answer the phones. that should be fundamental. we know that, of course, during the pandemic there was an accumulation of backlog, but that backlog has to be eliminated. there has to be processing on the timely action. there is a claim by the irs they need up-to-date technology to be able to meet that challenge. certainly the congress should do

that. at the end of the day, i appreciate the hard work of many irs agents that are working really hard, but the leadership needs to move it into a point in which the backlog is cleared, the mail is answered, returns are processed. people should get their refunds when there's one due to them in a timely fashion, and they should be able to get the phone answered when they have questions. >> senator, a cuban art professor and activist was barred yesterday on boarding a plane from miami to havana by the cuban government. this happens during the week that new trials in cuba are being carried out, the sham trials where young people are sentenced to ten and 20 years in prison for participating in the july 11th peace movement. what is going on, senator? >> well, it is a continuing reality of the brutality of the cuban regime. these are cuban citizens and

nationals who ultimately just want to peacefully try to create change in their country, and the response is the heavy-handedness of the state, the use of show trials, the imprisonment of people simply because of their peaceful protests, and the regime is ultimately convinced that the discontent of its people that can create change. it will continue to clamp down and my hope that beyond the united states, the international community stops coddling the regime and demands from it the respect of human rights and democracy that every citizen of the world desires and deserves. >> senator bob menendez, always a pleasure to see you. thank you for your time this morning. great to be with you. right now a major storm system is making its way across the country with the potential to cause headaches for millions of americans. it's already brought heavy rains and floods to chicago as it

continues to head east. it's expected to bring more rain, snow, potential of tornadoes. joining me is nbc meteorologist bill karins. bill, good morning. what's the latest on the storm's track? >> this storm is going to throw everything at us and the kitchen sink. there's not much the storm will not do. we're going to get flooding, river flooding, ice jam flooding, tornadoes this afternoon and this evening. an ice and snowstorm on the back end of the storm. the little flashing white icons, those are lightning strikes. almost a spring-like storm through memphis, little rock, nashville. the blue shows where it's snowing, snowing hard between wichita and kansas city. this is heading for chicago and areas south of chicago this afternoon. you'll watch the snow increasing this afternoon. how about all the numbers of people included, 42 million under winter weather alerts. 42 million under flood alerts.

wind alerts covering 111 million people. that' kwaulgs a lot of delays and cancellations at the airport. later this afternoon into tonight, areas from memphis to nashville, mississippi and even a chunk of alabama, watch out for strong thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. some of these could be after dark, too. those are usually the most deadly. we have less lead time. it's harder to get visuals and confirmation when they're on the ground. this will be during the day today. river flooding and flash flooding through evening. ice storm in areas of northern ohio. finally, jose, it will be enough for a snow day for kids in illinois, northern indiana and southern portions of michigan, maybe even detroit and chicago. as i said, there's not much the storm will not throw at us. >> bill karins, thank you so much. great seeing you, my friend. coming up, funeral services are about to get under way for

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of ahmaud arbery are back in court. prosecutors presented texts and social media posts with racist messages shared by the three men as they try to prove the defendants targeted arbery out of racial bias. travis mcmichael shared a story about two black restaurant customers who were upset about cold food and got into a confrontation with two white women. travis commented he would beat the black people to death if they did that to his mother, sister or an unnamed individual. all three men have pleaded not guilty. joining me now is kristin givens, msnbc legal analyst and former prosecutor. great to see you this morning. how does laying out these texts and posts play into the prosecutor's goal of gaining a conviction? >> keep in mind for this federal hate crimes trial they have to

prove, like you mentioned, these three men chased as mr. ari, chased him, murdered him because he was black. showing all three of them had racial animus towards black individuals helps to prove it, that they went after mr. arbery because of his race. being racist is not going to make the difficult for the prosecution. that's why, jose, as you're pointing out, they're showing and emphasizing those text messages that show not only hatred but irrational responses to black people. they also talked about -- i think they showed some images of travis mcmichael's text messages, quote, we used to walk around committing hate crimes all day or he wished he had a semi-automatic rifle in order to shoot blm protests that he referred to as monkeys. while the racial slurs do not make out the case, showing he

engaged in this type of conduct, not only used racial slurs, but used racial slurs in addition to hatred will help the prosecution show he was motivated by race when he enacted this horrific crime. >> how difficult is it to prove that racial bias indeed led people to murdering ahmaud arbery? >> it is very challenging because, again, none of these text messages show that he used -- that he was angry at mr. arbery or that he chased mr. arbery or he interfered with the rights of mr. arbery because he was black. keep in mind that we all saw the state trial. so we know what evidence exists. all those videos we saw where individuals who were not white entered into that abandoned home and their behaviors were excused. mr. arbery who is merely running through the neighborhood while black is chased, is cornered, is

then shot. that city hall going to be put together to show that this was not self-defense. there was no reason for these three men to chase them but for the fact that he was black, but for the fact that they were angry that a black man was running through their neighborhood. >> jogging while black. kristen givens, thank you so much. family and friends gathering for the funeral of amir locke, the 22-year-old man who was shot and killed by police. lauchlt officials were looking for a suspect in the homicide case. locke was not named in the warrant. police opened fire after they say they saw a gun in his hand they say was pointed in the direction of the officers. it's unclear from body cam footage if the gun was pointed at an officer. news correspondent ron allen joins me from minneapolis. ron, what can we expect today? >> reporter: a very emotional day here at the church. we expect the family of amir

locke to begin arriving in the coming hour. there will be a public viewing of the body and a funeral service beginning around noon eastern or so, officiated by our own reverend al sharpton. we expect to see a number of other civil rights leaders and activists here. while this is certainly a funeral service, a home going service some will call it for a young man and his family, it's also a moment where, again, this community and activists around the nation are focusing on this issue of police use of excessive force and misconduct, alleged misconduct and the killing of young black men. amir locke was not a suspect in this case when this no-knock warrant was executed in a pre dawn raid. the police say he had a gun and they say the gun was pointed at them. his family and others looking at the video tape suggest he did not have a moment to even respond. the officers burst into the door

and this whole encounter took ten seconds or less and he -- locke was dead. again, expecting a lot of emotion at the church. service about to begin in about an hour or so as, again, this community grieves and mourns. it's important to point out that this is the same church where just a few months ago there was a funeral servais for donte wright, killed by a police officer. that officer will be sentenced in a courtroom tomorrow after being convicted of manslaughter. >> ron allen, thank you so much. still ahead, president biden is about to land in ohio where she's expected to shift the message on the economy. we'll have the details next. we're keeping an eye on the united nations security council where secretary of state antony blinken is expected to speak about russia. we'll take you there live. you're watching "jose diaz-balart reports." g "jose diaz-balart reports.

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39 past the hour. this morning president biden heads to ohio where he's expected to take the first steps to shift his economic message to the american people before his state of the union address. in cleveland and lorain, ohio, biden will tout the bipartisan infrastructure law, but he'll also be testing out new themes for his primetime speech. nbc's mike memoli joining us from lorain, ohio. mike, what about this messaging shift from the white house? >> reporter: jose, obviously the situation in ukraine and the president's search for a supreme court nominee have been dominating the time and attention behind the scenes. white house officials say planning for the state of the union add dpres is also heavily under way. the president spent part of last weekend at camp david working through the latest draft with his strategist. this is an administration that feels like now is the time to tout their accomplishments from the covid relief law, the

bipartisan infrastructure law. the president will be touting $1 billion from that law going to a great lakes river oracle arenaup in ohio, a must-win battleground state, of course. there's a recognition that with inflation at the top of voters' concerns as well as the ongoing fatigue over covid that, as one white house official put it, you really aren't ready to hear -- the american public, that is, the litany of accomplishments from this president unless he demonstrates he recognizes they're facing squeeze at the gas pump. they expect him to be saying things like he understands their pain, often quoting his father saying that he understands government isn't supposed to solve all their problems. also, jose, it's important to note that the role of covid in his primetime address in two weeks, interesting piece to

watch, we've been seeing the white house working through potentially with the cdc some changes to the guidance that we're all living under. you heard jeff zients talking about shifting to a new face and that might be a key part of the president's speech. >> mike memoli in ohio, thank you very much. more than 100 members of congress are calling for a review of what they say is the disparate treatment of black migrants by the u.s. immigration system. they also want the administration system to end the trump era policy of title 42 which deports migrants before they can request asylum. here is alan orr president of the american lawyers immigration association. this report claims a disparate treatment of black migrants. does that match up with what you see? >> what we see and what we've known for years, in every realm in immigration and law enforcement a disparity among people that are black.

today it's black immigrant advocacy day. immigrants are charged a 52% higher bond rate, removed at a higher rate. this title 42 has impacted haitians at a higher rate. cameroonians meet the parameters for tps and the administration hasn't moved on it. the biden administration has a choice because they have the power to install tps. >> why do you think, allen, cameroonians have such a tough time getting tps? >> i think it's a lack of will power and a distrust of the community looking at immigration as an opportunity. everybody looks at immigration as a challenge or crisis. this is an opportunity. we have tons of jobs we need to have filled. we're spending tons of money detaining or deporting immigrants. we need to refocus the economy on what made america great in the first place which is

immigrants. we're not saying everyone should be allowed to stay. we're saying immigrants that are here that meet tps should be afforded that right. we also say immigrants that are in detention that are block shouldn't have a 50% higher bail rate than anyone else so there's that immigrant black fund that has to raise money to meet high dae mands for black immigrants. >> haitians by the thousands who have been coming have continued to be deported to a place where the state department says americans should not visit. cubans are being deported to a country that had 62 years-plus of a dictatorship. venezuela is being sent back to a country that the united states doesn't even recognize. why? >> poor choices, and i think it becomes a political football in which we must understand that sometimes you must do what's unpopular because it's right. this president has done that.

it's time to do that in immigration, time to move the ball in the right direction and the world we live in to face our democracy and stabilize the world to say these are the things we won't do. this is something all the nations promised after the second world war that we weren't going to return people to certain death to these countries around the world. there are tons of pictures i've posted on twitter that shows the conditions that america is returning people to haiti with $100. they were supposed to have a new president on february 7th. we saw none of that happen. >> allen orr, always a pleasure to see you. >> thank you for having me. still ahead, with covid cases on the decline throughout our country, what the white house coronavirus coordinator is saying about the state of the pandemic. at any moment, secretary blinken is set to speak to the security council. tony blinken is on his way to the u.n., has already landed in

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49 past the hour. now to the latest on the pandemic. the white house coronavirus response coordinator, jeff zients, says the u.s. has made, quote, tremendous progress in the fight against the virus. here is some of what he's we have a range of effective treatments and therapeutic, including pills that are up to 90% effective at preventing severe illness and hospitalization. as a result of all this progress and the tools we now have, we're moving toward a time when covid isn't a crisis but is something we can protect against and treat. joining me now is an infectious disease physician at boston medical center and is an msnbc medical contributor. doctor, we've seen this kind of optimism before and all of a sudden delta comes and slams the

country and then there's optimism and omicron. what's your sense that this progress is here to stay now? >> yeah, i think you nailed it, jose. i'm going to start by saying that it's right we have these strides, cases are down. there are still some cases struggling with high hospitalizations, the deaths are still very high. we are still coming off of the surge but if the numbers continue to go down and deaths continue to decline, we are entering a time when you do see reduced cases. and we have made strides, new therapies, the oral anti-viral, but those are tools. it's about how we execute them. we can't rest on our laurels until we'll see them distributed and available and the uptake is high. the second is we cannot view this, in my mind, as the end of the pandemic because we don't know what the future will bring, we don't know what will happen

with new variants and we don't know how long the immunity will last and how long the vaccines will last. don't say this is the end until we have a period of time where we're not seeing surges or new variants that are out there. >> that's interesting because there has been no doubt progress made, a lot of it, but some of that progress is due to the just massive amounts of people that got omicron througout the country and really throughout the world. so they do have some immunity but we don't really know about how long that immunity lasts and then how about the vaccine situation? do we know how long the boosters last? are we going to be looking at boosts are every four months? >> we simply don't know. we do know that boosters, even after the antibodies after boosters go down, the data shows there's still good protection

against hospitalization. could a new variant come on the horizon? could we see those people who had prior infections and have had vaccinations do lose some of the protection against those measures? they should retain more protection against more severe findings as well as hospitalizations and deaths compared to just infections but woe don't know. and the other part is even as we're coming out of this omicron wave, we know immunity against omicron, which in many cases cause less severe infection in people vaccinated, we don't know how much of that protection will protect against future variants. we don't know what the future will bring because most of the world is still waiting for not just their boosters but their first doses. >> that would change people if more people around the world had their vaccines. doctor, thank you very much for being with me this morning. >> in brazil at least 102 people

are dead after massive mud slides and floods. rescuers are still digging through the wreck and for survivors here. we brought you this story yesterday and the number of people that are disappeared continues to increase, more than 102 deaths. the governor says he's gathering the state's government's heavy machinery to help. the state fire department said the area just got over ten inches of rain in three hours. that's almost as much rain as the last three years combined. coming up, we have the latest details on the trump organization investigation. you're watching "diaz-balart

reports." diaz- reports. . vmware. welcome change. i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida. my wife and i have three children. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be. my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

i've got moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months, after just 2 doses. skyrizi may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. before treatment, your doctor should check you

for infections and tuberculosis. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms such as fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches, or coughs or if you plan to or recently received a vaccine. ♪nothing is everything♪ talk to your dermatologist about skyrizi. learn how abbvie could help you save. right now lawyers representing former president trump are in court trying to brock a subpoena. the attorney general wants to question the former president and his two children under oath as part of a civil investigation. the former president has called it a, quote, sham investigation. cam, what's the latest out of the courtroom today? >> an issue in the proceedings is whether new york attorney general laticia james can force,

compel trump and his sons to testify. trump was arguing she shouldn't be able to because she's participating in a criminal investigation being issued by the manhattan district attorney. they've charged trump's financial officer in an alleged tax avoidance scheme. he said it's not proper for the same office to probe criminal and civil probes and it's a way of side stepping. the judge asked why he couldn't just take the fifth and his lawyers said it could be used against him in another case. his son took the fifth more than 500 times. >> thank you. that wraps up a very busy hour

for me. i'm jose diaz-balart. thank you for your time. yasmin vossoughian picks up right now. hi, everybody. we have a lot going on at msnbc headquarters in new york city. we're watching a few things, the crisis in ukraine. it seems something has shifted. the biden administration appearing to be entering a new phase in what he's saying publicly about russia. here's what the president about 90 minutes ago. >> reporter: how high is the threat of a russian invasion right now? >> it's very high. >> reporter: why? >> because they have not moved any of their troops out, they've moved more troops in, number one. number two, we have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go