presenting a united front on russian aggression. i'll see you at nbc news now and for now "deadline: white house" picks up our special coverage. ♪♪ hi there, everyone. 4:00 in new york on a historic day with war inup on a scale not seen since world war ii. now 18 hours into a sweeping assault on ukraine. the president zelenskyy said the country is under attack from the north, south, east and the air. official telling nbc news the putin goal is nothing short of decapitating the ukrainian government. air strikes on the mill tash and ash defenses according to the

pentagon. a most dangerous battle in the area around the chernobyl nuclear power plant. that plant is now reportedly in russian hands. ukrainian officials say 57 people have been killed and includes civilians. the invasion has resulted in scenes of desperation. on the ground in ukraine, traffic is piling up on the roads leading out of kyiv and underground train stations on the border with russia why doubling as bomb shelters with men, women and children crowding on to platforms and inside trains. for the united states and the west the crisis is already a defining moment. president joe biden ordered new sanctions to target russia's largest banks and elite and block the ability to import technology. today the president did not

mince words laying blame entirely on vladimir putin. listen. >> we have been transparent with the world. we have shared information so there can be no confusion about what putin is doing. putin is the aggressor. putin chose this war. and now he and his country will bear the consequences. the action betrays a sinister vix. one where nations take what they want by force. but it is a vision that the united states and freedom loving nations will oppose. >> we begin with nbc news senior international correspondent keir simmons live in moscow and cal perry in ukraine. cal, i believe that country's curfew has gone into effect. tell me what you have seen and

been watching you all day. tell me the latest. >> reporter: the reason i'm coming to you live inside the hotel and the city in the last hour said at 11:00 pchl everybody to go to blackout conditions for security. no light to the street and instead of toning off lights we moved into the room. there are some street lights remaining but all the more indication that the government is unclear about the scale of this and how wide. this is supposed to be the safe place to retreat from the east move west to poland and the nato troops and a border to cross. you mentioned the long lines. the issues that people are encountering, long lines or gas. getting out of kyiv. people trying to get gas and petrol and the move and the more

to get down this road and richard engel described it. the first phase of attacks on military. second phase nobody knows. are civilians in the line of fire? you have this human need to not leave your life behind but the real poerpt from inside the hotel room that the government is concerned that not only will the conflict widen but this is not as safe a place as they thought it would be. >> human need to not leave your life is what certainly -- that's the perfect way to describe the images and to describe i think what was a careful balances act on the part of president zelenskyy really almost disdainful about the united states talking about warning about war and aggression. that abruptly changed to deal with the reality and i wonder and wondered over 18 hours if

people felt like they had enough type to prepaetsch. >> reporter: i don't think they did. i think the government as you have laid out trying to keep people calm and from fleeing, trying to keep a run on the banks. washington saying that very serious things were happening and the ukrainian government down playing it and then yesterday a moment of the u. security council talking and vladimir putin giving a speech and then bombs dropping and here in places like lviv a realization by people here that not only is it real and arrived today and wider than the east and you had a fierce fire fight 15 miles from the capital where russian paratroopers have taken the airfield. the government of ukraine took it back and shows you that what

washington expected to happen and what kyiv expected the happen were two different things and it changed on a dime. as the sun came up this morning and i think that's why you see the rush where people make thattic possible decision to leave their lives behind to try to save lives. i spoke to someone worried about the parents in kyiv. that's the decision to make here and now on an hourly basis. >> horrific, historical echoed. i wonder if you can talk to me about anything to report on the number of casualties announced in the last hour by the ukrainian government. >> reporter: we have got initial numbers and just to stress so early in the conflict. 15 hours in. at least 578 killed here with almost 150 wounded. they are not yet to

differentiate between civilians and military personnel. i will be using the phrase at least because we don't have a clear push of what is happening on the front lines. people like richard and matt and erin are stuck where they are. it's impossible to move around this country right now an enso it's hard to get that wide look. we have a map with the red dots everywhere and representative of how it feels. under attack. air sirens went off this morning and shocking for people that live in this european city. it is completely surreal. i keep using that word but such a surreal situation to be in a city that hosted the uefa cup in 2012 is something that i think people are living through and

can't quite believe it. >> what are the concerns on the ground of chernobyl and russia seizing it? >> reporter: it was really unclear to me what was going on and in the early planning it was that that they would avoid the area and there's an infrastructure reason. there's still a power plant there. we thought that the requests to go to blackout conditions was to save energy and corrected. by both the government and the hotel. this is a blackout for security reasons. you have a concern about the basic infrastructure here. certainly the russians are taking out the infrastructure. the goal is to make this an ungovernable place. if you are trying for some kind of change in the government he is hitting the right targets because you want to make this impossible to govern.

power, water, sewage, gas lines. if you can unravel the society that's as destabling as an occupation and possibly more destabilizing. if the end goal is government replacement it would explain the targets. a thing to mention the ukrainian president is keeping the location undisclosed for the obvious reasons and discussions of coming here to lviv. he's taken himself off the location grid. we don't know where he is and as i come to you from a hotel room with the blinds closed is for obvious reasons. >> obvious reasons and destabilizing effects. keir simmons, as usual i have distance between the things i want to say but tell me how starting a war in europe is received in moscow. >> reporter: people are stunned, shocked here in moscow and i

think across russia and because keep in mind we just had to say it again and again that there are millions of ukrainians here in russia and many russians in ukraine. these are two countrys that are interconnected. i don't think people here believed it would happen. i spoke to a woman and her 11-year-old daughter that the daughter's grandfather, woman's father is in ukraine. not able to talk and be with each other in three years because of covid and now torn apart by the war and that story repeated again and again and again and goes to whether president putin will take his country with him. we asked people how they felt about it. take a listen. >> i've been crying for -- from the morning. so -- i don't know what to do. my men, the men they love is ukrainians citizen so for me

it's quite a tragedy. >> horrible. here. should be done by diplomatically. >> reporter: there have been some protesters here in moscow. people arrested but small. president putin crushed opposition and things unfold in unexpected ways when it comes to a conflict. if the russian people turn against what president putin has done that will be threatening to vladimir putin and may feel cornered. the implications we wait to see what happens. >> keir, follow-up. expand on the point. it's been presented to me as not implausible that someone fighting on behalf of russia could be face to face fighting against an immediate family member fighting on behalf of ukraine. nuclear families live across the

two borders. can you add meat on those bones? >>. >> reporter: yeah. it is completely possible. at the same time we have heard president putin talk about the two countries as one. they are not one. ukraine is a democracy. that's the point. doesn't matter what the family ties or the friendship ties are. it's a democracy. that's the crucial question. i think there's something important here, too. we have had so many conversations about who's this person vladimir putin. that conversation is never more important than right now because inside the kremlin he is the person, the one guy who is making the decisions. we heard president biden talk about sanctions today. a few hours before that putin was telling business leaders russia is not ejected from the world economy. there will be conversation on the sanctions but there are conversations about whether

president putin is diluted or being diluted. the address announcing war in ukraine and railing against nato and the u.s., at times you watch and wonder where does he get the information from? does he believe this? he seems so erpest. an answer might be that he has a small circle around him and he doesn't use computers or phones that aren't secure and the information is limited. people talk about this with president putin. one more thing to say about that, earlier in the week we saw president putin dress down the chief of the foreign intelligence service. interrupted him at the security council. made him sit down. terrifying display honestly. tells you something because he's a known vladimir putin for 40

years. both in the kgb. ask yourself this. are they giving him the information he needs or wants? telling him that kyiv will fall and a pro russian government will take over? doesn't seem likely. what is president putin told about the conflict and economic sanctions? again, remember it is president putin leading this. he is making the decisions. nobody else. crucial question. >> it is a portrait of a leader we have covered and talked about. and i guess i want to close the circle by asking you if the outcry among the public is likely to even make it to putin. i know he's thin skinned and sensitive and vain and the shirtless photo-opes but will he hear how disgusted the population is by the fact that

the leader started a war in europe? >> reporter: it is a great question. we should remember there's lots of russians that support him and believe the things that are said on television, the networks here playing it over and of allegations, propaganda saying that ukraine is attacking russians in eastern ukraine and a great question because it is of course the people that president putin is most frightened of and why this is happening because he doesn't want -- revolutions in ukraine that brought in new leaders, new governments. president putin is determined not to let the russian people believe that you can overturn a government and then live in freedom and democracy? that would be incredibly threatening to him and a part of the explanation why we are where we are now. >> i'm honored to talk to you both. thank you to both of you.

wave your arms if you have updates for us. thank you. stay safe. former ambassador to russia and analyst michael mcfaul and william taylor is here and aern applebaum and joining me on set is john heilemann. i want to start with ambassador taylor. it is a privilege to talk to you and seared in my mind a recollection of war ongoing in your time in ukraine. this is a different level. your thoughts? >> thank you. great to be here with this group. it's a great group. a great report there from keir simmons about the effect on russian people. i think this is going to be something to follow.

michael mcfaul will have answers ant that. i have been on the front lines, talking to -- when i was there i talked to ukrainian soldiers. they will fight. they will -- they are fighting. we are seeing the ukrainian army putt up a fight in various places and your people described this. it's not a fair fight. ukrainians have been on the battle fronts for eight years. they're hardened. it is brutal. putin does want ukraine and ukraine does not want and the people do not want to be part of the part of europe on the other side of the iron curtain. >> ambassador, was diplomacy a ruse? could putin have been reasoned with? is this from putin's perspective

preordained? >> we tried. there's no doubt that the west and president biden and nato tried. we put things on the table to address some stated concerns, security sirans. there was an effort. i think a genuine effort. what appears to be the case is putin was never interested or worried about sanctions or the costs that we said he was going to feel and he will feel them. he was intending and has been it is almost clear to do this in any case and not a ruse on our side. it could have been on his. >> to be clear i meant on his. he sent lavrov to meetings with tony blinken. western efforts were earnest. i also remember you -- i think the country got to know you when

you talked about the danger of playing politics. this administration obviously did the opposite and helped this country arm itself 'prepare for war. ing what we do now that the war commenced? what do they need now that the military installations have been targeted? >> they still need weapons and military support. same support in greater numbers. been in touch with ukrainian officials today and need that from nato. they appreciate everything they have gotten so far. if the russians do come in then the russians will face the ukrainian people fighting them and these will be defense forces, partisan forces. citizens who will be trying to defend their own homes and towns so this is also requirement that we can provide weapons and

communications, transportation. we can help them to fight this fight. >> ambassador taylor, do you believe zelenskyy is doing the sorts of things that you counsel him to do if you were in country? seen more by the population? talk about the excruciating sperps of being president zelenskyy today. >> here's a young leader, 43. didn't have political experience. two years in office. president putin had 22 years in office. i believe president zelenskyy surprised president putin with the strength, with the determination and calm. maybe too much calm. he continues to lead the country. i think he's actually stepping up. i think he is stepping up. growing as a leader. addressing his people. even the opposition leaders.

i talked to several in kyiv three weeks ago and president zelenskyy. they are respectful of the job he is doing and they know and the country knows he's the president and falling in behind him. >> ambassador mcfaul, the difference is that family members are fighting for a democracy. that democracy has one leader. president zelenskyy. other side a cloistered and i take all of your descriptions of putin's unpredictability to heart and one that right now is as the ambassador said has the advantage. how do you see the next 18 hour shaping up? >> 18 hours i'm not sure but i think putin made it very clear what his objectives are now and we need to take it seriously. he said announcing this

horrific, tragic, senseless invasion in which ukrainians and russians will die together. i want to remind the viewers there are ethnic russians in ukraine and the capital city and he wants demilitarization. attacking and destroying the ukrainian military and what he wants to do is roll back the revolution of dignity from 2014. in his view as he's described it many, many times that was an in his words not mine a neo-nazi coup backed by us that usurped power illegally and he wants to restore what was there before. i hope the ukrainians resist and he might reinstate the person

that left, fled the country in 2014. and second you have heard about that list. right? the intelligence that put out that list. my guest is that list is the organizers of the revolution of dignity from 2014 and people on the list are friends of mine and i think that's the objective. i think he will fight until he at least tries attempt to get to the two objectives. >> you have talked in appearances i have caught today and all of you seeing an interview about friends there. ambassador mcfaul, what are you hearing from the friends there? >> i have done lots of zoom calls and phone calls and a point of ambassador taylor. yesterday with 70 or 80 ukrainians from all orr the country and different political groups everybody stood behind

zelenskyy. very striking. i won't name names but they're prominent. some are driving to lviv and some decided with the government responsibilities to stay in kyiv. i did a call and want to emphasize something of earlier with keir. i -- there were over so 0 people on the call in moscow. i am enemy number one in russia today so it takes courage to get on a call with me to talk about these issues and it was striking the anti-war sentiment there. there's already been 1100 or 1700 people arrested throughout russia. may sound like a small number to us all and it is but when you are doing that from the fear of arrest and illegal that suggests to me that this war is not as popular as vladimir putin might think it is. >> i want to put up those

images. i take the point to putin diplomacy may have been a ruse all along and also to mcfaul's point and keir's reporting this is not welcome at all in russia. what is your sense as to how big of a factor that will be on putin's decision making from this hour forward? >> he's made it pretty clear that he's not interested in the well being or the opinions of the russians about this or anything else and one thing we misunderstood about him. we assume he'll care about economic sarkss caring about his people impoverished or having not enough access to goods or food. he doesn't care about that. the concerns are primarily his

own power and legacy. he's talking strangely almost paranoidally about history and using kind of made-up versions of his ri for justification. he is not thinking about ordinary people. that doesn't mean that the opinions of russians or russian leaders won't matter and an unpopular war. russians don't think ukrainians are nazis and enemies and they think of them as a close country. over time that may make a difference. if it doesn't influence putin it will influence other russian leaders and maybe cause a change of heart. >> as someone that watches the region for us closely, what was your reaction last night when the invasion commenced?

>> so, i had this very strong and very creepy sense of deja vu. i have written about soefrt invasions and occupations. i wrote a book about the soeftd occupation of poland and east germany and hungary and so much of what -- the tactics and methods up to the making lists of enemies and talking about who to arrest in advance, you know, the attempt to disorient people, the use of propaganda and lies, so much is familiar from soviet history. putin is a kgb officer and the kgb studies the history. i have seen the study guides in the archives. he is really reading through how did we do it in the past and conquer other nations and occupy

them in 1945. and this is very similar to that in a way that's really quite eerie. >> do you think he's made any miscalculations? not on public opinion but on the notion that in the year 2022, i think we talk every day on this program about the rise of authoritarian impulse and the condemnation so swift and exceeds what he might have anticipated in his own country. >> you know, he's somebody who doesn't understand ukraine very well and i often doesn't think he understands human nature very well. he underestimate it is desire that people have for justice and freedom and the dislike for the corrupt political system that he runs in which just a few people

control everything and nobody else has access to power. he fails to understand the authentic desire that people have for change and living in a better society and attributes it to foreign influbs campaigns. hillary clinton is organizing demonstrations in russia. he doesn't understand that it's authentic and real and may turn out to be a miscalculation in russia and ukraine. >> john, i'm sure you have spoken to this white house officials and saw this coming. they projected around this country and the world that this was imminent. i think jen psaki underscored the fact they have been using imminent for five days now. that said i think everybody did a collective and whether audible or not gasp when this started last night. >> yeah. the beginning.

you can have fantastic intelligence and can be right as it turned out to be and it is not a time for pointing out people with egg on their face but people were dismissive who i think owe an apology to people convinced that this happened. but you can see that intelligence and yet it is still breathtaking to see vladimir putin do what he's done on a historic scale. this is -- there have been wars in europe since world war ii. wars in bosnia. there have been genocides. slobadan milosevich engaged in in the 1990s. we have not seen a ground war in 75 years. if you see it coming and see the troops piling up, the moment it happens everybody should be stunned that the intelligence is right but everybody hopes that

the intelligence is wrong and will pull vladimir putin back from the brink and now and a question to ask the ambassador is what comes next. ambassador taylor, what they were talking about is this notion that putin is immune to economic sanctions. smart people say that. he doesn't care about sanctions and the poverty of the people and immune from domestic political pressure. we are all seeing the protests now on the streets tonight and kind of cheering that and we hear ambassador mcfaul talking about the call. is it true and not in the short term but the medium and long term that putin can be completely immune from domestic political pressure if the

protoasts -- protests grow and regardless of how they feel about ukraine but the savings deleted and the country in economic ruin, is there a point that putin will not be immune from that domestic political pressure? >> i think you are exactly right. i think you are exactly right. he will feel the pressure. it will be economic pressure on russians. the sanctions on these big banks, big commercial banks will affect a lot of normal russians but they will also feel and this will get them -- they'll feel it when that you are sons and daughters come back dead and to be buried in small towns in russia across the country. that he hasn't had to deal with. since the chechen wars. and any real sense. he went in to crimea without a shot fired. he had some casualties.

the russian army in donbas and suppressed. they were suppressed and people who tried to raise that even the parents were suppressed. so this is the first time to have a lot of casualties of russian soldiers killed in a country that are most russians feel are friendly toward them. he is going to feel that and could well be -- there are suggestions of senior military. one said this could lead to an uprising. >> anne, sort of to take the last word in this part of this kompgs. i know they don't have a 25th amendment but there's remarkable reporting in "the new york times" about putin's perceived stability and how he is cooky.

and i wonder the thoughts about the stability at this molt. >> he is isolated for two years. there was a rule anyone to see him had to be in quarantine for two weeks. he was surrounded by security guards and strange history books. up until now putin has never been considered to be crazy. he took some risks but they were always calculated. he always seemed to understand the strength of russia. there seemed to be an end game and a plan. the really strange thing about this war is that he doesn't have an end game. nobody understands how he's going to occupy ukraine if that's the goal. is that a long term idea? is that going to work in any months and years? that seems strange and then as i say this obsession with false

versions of history that he repeats over and over again on television and in conversations. it seems off kilter and not normal. >> not normal. anne, it is a privilege to talk to you today. thank you. ambassador mcfaul, ambassador taylor and john is sticking around. ahead for us congressman moulten joins the conversation. how the u.s. should be responding. that's next. that's nt.ex ahead of eczema with clearer skin and less itch. hide my skin? not me. don't use if you're allergic to dupixent. serious allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. tell your doctor about new or worsening eye problems such as eye pain or vision changes, including blurred vision, joint aches and pain,

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so with wayfair, you'll always find your perfect match. ♪ wayfair you got just what i need ♪ this is an ideal impromptu bomb shelter. the government said try to seek refuge in the metro stations. they stopped the trains and the transportation and what you see down here. pets, people. they're scared, all told me they have nowhere to go. don't know what's going on and just outside the city and makes it so threatening. >> that was matt bradley from a subway station that's functioning as a shelter. the latest on an obviously fluid situation in ukraine. president biden announced new sanctions for russia and plans

to mobilize more troops to germany. the faa expanded the no fly area including on ukraine, belarus and much of russia. for the situation on the ground ukraine's health minister reports that 57 people died as russian forces circle to kyiv. just before midnight there following a day long assault from the air, land and sea. something to watch this hour, officials say russian occupation forces seized the chernobyl power plant. ukrainian president zelenskyy said such a move would be a quote declaration of war against the whole of europe. joining us is seth molten. he traveled to ukraine in december to discuss the escalating security crisis as

part of a group of bipartisan lawmakers from the house. congressman, when you were there, did you have a sense that anyone thought they'd find themselves taking shelter in the subways on this day? >> no. actually, that was a concern i brought back and seemed like the folks on the ground ukraine yans and americans on the ground not imagining a full-scale invasion and the scenario that russia could move in quickly and seize the capital of ukraine kyiv even if they don't push through in the east and that's what's unfolding before our eyes. >> i have seen you over the past few days and read part of a tweet about sanctions. putin may think he's teflon but we prove to him that sanctions

will stick. mike mcfaul wrote that sanctions won't matter smuchings the ukrainian military and resistance. how do you assess the military's ability to fight back as a veteran yourself? >> sure. i don't think it's entirely contrary. i do think that putin is going to care more about the resistance. i'm not sure sadly that he is going to find the ukrainian military terribly effective to repel an invasion. it could be over very quickly but the resistance is something that we expect to be strong and something that america's repaired to support. that could be putin's undoing. i heard anne say we are not sure what putin is thinking. i have always imagined he doesn't need to occupy the

country to have a success here. he is making some irrational decisions and doesn't understand the opposition to get in ukraine or might frankly get at home and if planning for a long occupation, planning to control ukraine, i think he is in for a rude awakening. >> you are apparently -- it's not total opposition and the positions and at that moment sounds like you are optimistic about the effect of sanctions on putin's thinking than some are who think he's immune to the pressure. >> it depends on how effective the sanctions are. targeted at him and the allies i made the point in december that he needs to find it hard to buy a soda from the soda machine and that means disconnecting russia from the banking system. finding ways around what

innovations they try to bring to get around the traditional banking system why that means stopping innovative fintech comes in from china to save the russians when they need the financial help. there's more to do and truly tarlgt the oligarchs who have money around the world. make them feel the pain and convey to that putin. doing that can be effective but here today russia invaded. this deterrent isn't enough to work why the administration feared that all along and need to do more and not just the resistance but a push back and not just with tanks and troops but the new verse of hybrid warfare where russia is working to put green men into the allied

countries to have cyber attacks and target the american people at home through facebook. we need to show russia that we are prepared to do the same and whatever aggression he shows it will be met with a strong and unified western response. >> such an important point. they have been in our politics at least as far as we know from 2015 and 2016. thank you for spending sometime with us. joining the coverage is "the new york times" diplomatic correspondent michael crowley. ambassador mcfaul and ambassador taylor and john heilemann is still here. i want to bring it back to the ambassadors. ambassador taylor, on this idea that people here may con flatd sanctions with a response to an

invasion. they're tools that may to be in the same suite. what are the thoughts about what is done other than what we talked about getting more weapons and more sort of military assets to the ukrainian people while the sanctions take effect and do the damage they're designed to do. >> right. there was a hope that the threat of sanctions would deter and as we see it didn't. the sanctions now are focused on a different goal. that is to harm frankly the russian economy. to make it harder for the russian economy and for president putin using the resources he's got to conduct this war. this is an attempt to make it hard on russian people and the way to talk about before that might cause them to turn against this war and in greater numbers

and to affect the russian ability to manufacture weapons and other items that they do with these components. so that the export ban is an important component of this. >> ambassador taylor, do they work if china is willing to stay as cozy as they appear mostly so far to be to russia? >> the chinese can start to help some -- ameliorate the effect of the sanctions but not much. over time it can. it takes time to shift the banks and establish a new s.w.i.f.t. system. if we were to use that. it takes time to shift from selling to the europeans and selling to the chinese. takes time and there's an immediate effect. >> ambassador taylor, you have been so generous with the time

and will lose you in a minute. what are you looking for? the next 12 hours. >> so i'm looking again for president zelenskyy to continue to rally his people, rally ukraine. he can be a strong leader. stepping up to be a strong leader. it is hard. he doesn't want to expose himself now. he is a marked man and also really important man in ukraine. even if he is not in kyiv, if he is in lviv or the mountains in the southwest, he can still rally his people. so that's an important component. ukraine will make this and get through this one way or the other. putin will lose. anne made the point. putin has no end game and will lose in the end. >> it's so interesting to me that you have this optimism. colonel vindman yesterday has the optimism.

it is important for us to hear that from people that know best. thank you. >> thank you. >> we're going to do two things. pull in michael and ambassador mcfall and john has a six-point question for you. we just had up on the screen a small protest that has taken shape outside of the white house. tell me the view from the west wing today, michael crowley. >> i think there's a kind of shock and horror at what vladimir putin is doing. at the same time you look back at the intelligence and all the warnings from the white house and they really saw this coming a long time ago. so there's shock at actually seeing the reality of it unfold and remarkable how accurately the biden administration was able to predict the way this would play out. i think there's also -- look.

probably feels good to come out and punish this aggression. and the u.s. is asserting the role as a leader in the world and defending the rules based international order and calls t rules-based national order but what will the cost of this be? are americans willing to pay the price? i am not sure the total confidence that the vast majority of americans are in for a long and painful fight for ukraine. that is the big question. >> nicole said it would be a multipart question. it will be one part. it has got a few things that it points. >> get a pencil. >> you were a skeptic about sanctions working.

i saw you retweet edward lucas, a politician in britain. lucas makes a list of things he thinks the west should do. i will read a few and ask if any of them stand out as good ideas. things that are practical and that would have an affect on putin. withdraw all western ambassadors from moscow and send their russian counterparts home. remove r.t. and other propaganda elements in all countries with regulated broadcast media. delisting, asset freezes on kremlin cronies.

delist the companies from stock exchanges and other western financial centers, stop trading their debt, bond and other financial instruments. which do you think the ones i will go for and we could get done. >> i want to be clear about my position on sanctions. i want sanctions. i want to punish putin and everybody around him. if you want 98 i want 100%. everything on ed's list, i support. easy for me to say. i don't work in the government. i think many of the things would be very hard for them tol do. visa bans for all that voted for this senseless war. 100% agree with that and a

harder take on putin's propaganda machine. now we are not trying to deter putin. we are trying to punish putin. now they are thinking he is punishing the oligarchs. two big banks that were sanctioned today. i know both guys that run them. you know how they got in those positions? putin appointed them. when people think the oligarchs are being pressured they are not understanding the distribution

of property. they don't have any say. remove them and movistar on. i hope the president is planingly for more. we are going to have to measure the effects in years and not months. i think the fighting on the ground in ukraine is the number one thing that will affect putin's calculus moving forward. >> let me bring it back to the fighting on the ground ambassador. when you talk to your friends in ukraine understand what to they correct? >> we did provide assistance. the stingers could have been done earlier. we interrupted military

assistance in the last administration and there are all kinds of weapons my ukrainian friends would have loved like patriots, anti-aircraft weapons. they need new supplies and what you were talking about ambassador taylor about. we were talking about it. one of them said you know what we need mike? knee pads. why do you need knee pads. motor ambassador on your knees for hours. anything we can do to help the civilian territorial defense should be a part of the

equation. >> a sensization of tell me what huare looking for. not that the news cycles end anymore but as the day closes. >> well, a couple of things. how much further russia goes on the ground. what things will look like in kyiv. how violent things might get in the capitol. whether the russians will follow through on the horrifying list of people who are to be possibly rounded up and kuptured and potentially executed. as the sanction story unfolds. the fact that the sanctions -- how europe will follow suit. what the european union will

deliver. secretary blinken who i follow closely and it looks like they are trying to coordinate the role and sanctions. will the eu come out as strong and tough. >> we will be reading everything that you report on. ambassador, thank you so much for making time for us. our coverage continues after a quick break. stay with us please. continues a quick break. quick break. stay with us please.elieves that if a pair of goggles can help your backhand get better yeah! then your bank should help you budget even better.

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america stands up to

bullies. we stand up for freedom. this is who we are. it was always about naked aggression. it was about putin's desire for empire by any means necessary. when the history of this era is written putin's choice to make a totally unjustifiable war on ukraine will have left russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger. freedom will prevail. hi again everyone, 5:00 in new york and midnight in kyiv as we continue our special coverage of russia's invasion of ukraine. the full-scale act. joe biden earlier today announced a new wave of sanctions against russia that he says will have an immediate and long-term impact. whether or not they are enough to deter vladimir putin remains to be seen. explosions were heard in cities across ukraine after putin announced would conduct what he

called a special military operation warning other countries if they tried to intervene they would face consequences so severe no other nations experienced it before. 57 ukrainians have died. more than 150 are injured. a chilling scene as air sirens blared throughout ukraine's capital earlier this morning. many ukrainians are searching for shelter in ukraine's second largest city. people are huddled underground on subway platforms. roads are flooded with traffic. russian forces seized control of the nuclear site which president zelenskyy claimed was a

declaration of war against the whole of europe. the pentagon's assessment is that russia has every intention of decapitating the ukrainian government and installing their own. in st. petersburg anti-war protests broke out despite threats against protesters by the russian government and that is where we start this hour with our favorite reporters and friends. the former supreme allied commander. and jeremy bash, former chief of staff for the cia and defense department and now a msnbc national security analyst. the "new york times" pentagon correspondent and msnbc contributor and john. the view from the pentagon, tell

me what if anything took them by surprise over the last 19 hours. >> hi nicole, thanks for having me. they are not that surprised. they will say that they have been predicting it. predicting the events for the last month. one thing they did express and say they were not expecting here at the pentagon is that the expectation that russian military forces and russian cyber forces would quickly set or shut down all of the ukrainian militaries coms and communications lines and all of their electronic stuff. that hasn't happened. one defense official described it to me as ukraine would go dark and you would see the country going dark and what you meant is not only russia would

control the air space. they do control that now. they would quickly seize control of commanding coms in ukraine to prevent the ukraine troops from speaking and communicating with each other. that hasn't happened. you are still seeing ukrainian troops mounting some fighting, resistance and fierce fighting towards the east. i haven't been able to get a good answer on why the pentagon thinks russia hasn't shut that down. there are many theories. i don't think we know the real answer yet. that is one of the things that caught them off guard here. >> helene, ambassador bill taylor was on in the last half-hour reporting the ukrainians aren't fighting and talking about what they need, more military assistance and more weapons and more everything. is that something that the pga

helps with that, you know, shopping list? is that something that the pentagon coordinates with them? >> yes and no. biden administration provided millions and millions in military assistance to the ukrainian military. there have been trainers and advisors who we recently pulled out. sold them a lot of gear, javelins, that sort of thing. there is almost nothing short of sending troops in there to alter the fact it is a david versus goliath situation. you can provide more military assistance. this is the argument that the pentagon and bide administration provides as well. they are at the end of the day

going to be hugely dwarfed by the massive military machine that is russia. >> the story about the rapid strategy, soon as intelligence was analyzed, releasing it publicly to keep putin off of his game. that seems to be what you are talking about. not only they were not surprised predicted it and did so publicly. is there any sense, and i ask you it because i am sure that your colleagues on the ground are saying the same thing mine are. there is still shock in the ukrainian cities. any sense whether that was zelenskyy's posture or whether it was still so unbelievable that we would see what we have

seen over the last 18 hours. >> such a good question nicole and one i went around and around with senior pentagon officials in the weeks that were leading up to this. as president zelenskyy urged calm. don't worry. we are not going to it be invaded. what he said to me and i thought it was interesting at the time. when you the human mind has a huge capacity for denial especially looking at an crisis that he compared to climate change. so many of us. we know it is happening. what are we doing about it? easier to pretend it is not happening.

he said the human mind has an incredible capacity for denial. i think that it frustrated some of the u.s. officials here. he argued it was quite understandable. >> i felt that way when trump won. if you can take me inside your understanding of the eventings of the last 18 hours and what you would be telling our allies to prepare for? >> you have seen a military war college invade 101. it is textbook in the sense that you go after the kpland and control. you go after the in particular, the enemy's air capability, air defenses. you have a multipronged assault coming in. you create huge waves of

refugees becoming a burden to the government that you are seeking to overthrow. and by the way as helene said we are still figuring out why it hasn't gone dark. i will give you one theory. if he does not need to play that card he won't. when he does that he will show the cyber. he will show the cyber tools. if he can continue on without taking down the electronic grid and without using advanced cyber to go after command and control. everything that i have seen so far, nicole, is consonant with what i would have expected and kudos to at this time u.s. intelligence community who really missed on afghanistan and the rapidity of the fall. we give them credit now. they are the ones that were

saying this is coming. this is coming. even in the face of the kind of human optimism you and nicole were discussing and european views that it will never get that bad. never underestimate the human capacity to believe tomorrow will be a lot like today but maybe a little bit different. sometimes you are watching the history channel in real time. things look very different. i think they will continue to look different in the days and weeks ahead. >> what is your assessment of putin's end game? >> well, that would be the ultimate great question. it certainly appears if we listen to vladimir putin when your opponent tells you what they are going to do, listen. in the case of the ramblings

deranged speeches over the last couple of days he is going to affect regime change. i don't think he wants to occupy the country with massive numbers of troops but put a thug in place like up north in belarus. i think he will do that. he will try to capture or kill zelenskyy. and by the way what we ought to be doing is preparing for a zelenskyy government in exile of resistance. how are we going to arm, and train that. i think his end game is regime change. knocking out the ukrainian military and putting a puppet

regime in place. >> what is our move if putin is successful? >> i think that the white house has everything strategically about right in the sense that you try to marshall massive sanctions. you know, that is not going to have instant affect and cause vladimir putin to change course, but it causes him to pay a price. secondly you flood the zone in eastern europe with nato troops and tanks, helicopters. ships and warships to reassure our allies. there is a symbolic value and waves with of refugees. we have to send the signal we will defend the nato borders. if you are in europe and you

woke up this morning it is a good day to be in a country that is a member of the nato alliance. i would be looking if i were in sweden or finland. how do i get in th -- i think those are the key things we need to be doing now. >> jimmy vash, your current relationships span the west wing to the pentagon to the state department and far beyond. tell me your sense of what the administration as helene and everyone established that they predicted this. they were prepared to escalate sanctions. yet here we are with war in europe. what is the administration inside of the administration?

>> i will say something good for the home team, for the united states. i think our intelligence community has nailed this. even back in december. we have to share it with our european partners. once they did that and threw the principles, downgraded the intelligence and released it and the europeans woke up saying look what the russians are amassing on the border. this is no exercise or effort to intimidate. this is the real deal. this force is ready to conduct combat mission. it was a question of calling putin's playbook.

putin came to the line a couple of times and saw the defense and called a time-out. i think that was significant. basically from january until february 24th gave the united states the ability to close our embassy skpp got our people's out of harms way and a lot of arms and weapons to the ukrainians. it required consultations with allies and partners. we searched troops to the eastern flank of nato. we have been doing that up until today and the president and commander in chief announced deployment of troops to the eastern flanks it. i think we positioned ourselves well to hold the line at nato. it will fundamental he protect american national security

specials and you can't ask more from a commander in chief than that. >> all of that stipulated. russia has launched more than 160 missile strikes since the invasion began. 59 people lost their thrives. more than 160 are dead it. >> it is a tragedy and it shows the evil of the putin regime and of the kremlin and i think the president called them out in the clear-eyed statement saying putin a end game is nothing short of the establishment of the soviet empire. if that is the case the post

cold war era definitively ended and we will settle in for a long era of competition with the russian federation and we will compete wrmt them for ideas. it is a competition between two model. heinola has ahead -- guess what, he did exactly that. he waited until after the olympics because he didn't want to offend his new buddy. the model china and russia are advancing is the opposite of the united states and the west are advancing. this is the great challenge of our time. >> today in your view, who is winning, jeremy? >> well, today was a horrific

tragedy for democracy because a democracy was over run. 40 million ukrainians woke up yesterday in democracy and today effectively live under russian occupation. today was a loss and a upon terrible tragedy. the achilles heel of a dictatorship is that they have no dissent or anybody telling them they are wrong. whether if it is government, business or family, if nobody is willing to tell the boss they are wrong, the boss is going to trip up. i guarantee you that. >> ambassador taylor, jeremy, some of the people that know this part of the world best are expressing the most surprising notes of opt wimp fimism.

i think you can come look at it as a horrible tragic they would eddie. helene had the first fantastic story. maybe it could deter it. there is no appetite in his country for war. the feeling that none of it worked. here we are covering a war in europe. it. >> j.t.: i don't know if he is crazy or not but he has delusions. am that happen? it will not happen.

the long run is a long way off and a lot of damage can be done to a lot of human life in between and we have not gone down the path, and i don't want to go down it right now because there are too many other urgent things. the questions of the sewing of dissension and remaking the republican party into a more auto accuratic party and pushing it back in that direction. the fact that there are people like donald trump and mike pompeo out there. vladimir putin is now trying to capitalize off of it. i say the long run is a long way off. it brings me to the admiral. last night when putin gave a speech he invoked the fact that russia has nuclear weapons. i heard about this all day. a reporter asked the french foreign minister do you think

that is tantamount to a threat to use nuclear weapons in the ukraine conflict. he said yes and said pollute pollute needs to remember that nato is a nuclear alliance also. tell me whether you take all of it as rhetorical or is it in your view too people are talking about the use of nuclear weapons in this context. >> unfortunately it is the latter. someone asked what can you compare the moment to. i said we are seeing 1939. black and white images of tanks rolling into poland but now ukraine. the one rattling around in my brain is an at sea one.

the cuban missile crisis. two nuclear armed powers were sabre rattling at each other. the midnight block kept within a minute of closing. i will tell you what i worry about. miscal collusion. you know, these are fundamentally very young people that are out there, hard military, russian military. people in their 20s and 30s. it is not tony blinken out there flying a hornet around. these are the people that are in the top gun scene -- in the volleyball scene in top gun flying the plane around and the equivalents are flying it on the russian side as well.

it is something that shifts together. a missile that flies from a russian launcher and hits a u.s. installation accidentally on the far side of the polish/ukrainian border. real incidents that can spark catastrophe. you can lose control of the escalation. there is a good example of that we saw when world war one started after an assassination in an obscure corner of the empire, the russian empire is gone. yes john. we should worry about it. i think the administration has done a good job of considering that and that is part of the logic in maintaining control. i think they have done a good job of that so far. >> let me add to the

conversations. the state department spokesman ned price is here. tell us the latest. we heard from a reporter on the ground that zelenskyy is in an undisclosed location. do we know where he is? are we sure he is safe? >> we have a good idea. president biden was in contact with president zelenskyy last night. in both of the conversations we under scored and emphasized our enduring partnership with the ukrainian government and ukrainian people and more than the red rick. we have made it clear we would demonstrate it to the ukrainian government in the concrete ways

providing more than $6 507d million of assistance the past year. we will double down to make sure the finish. >> helene is on with us right now and we talked about her reporting on the administration's strategy as soon as intelligence was collected and confirmed, disseminating it. is the intelligence as good in terms of what putin's end game is and what is your sense about what happens tomorrow on the ground in ukraine. >> nicole, this is a rare circumstance where the american people are now in a position to judge just how good, how precise skprpt at every corner we have

been one step ahead of put pupt and layed out his playbook. it is almost as if high rmtd we told the world world misinformation and false flags and there would be theatrical convenings. we told the world everything we could do. i wish i could be here today to say we were wrong. but that is not the case. everything that we have laid out has happened. but so too, everything that we warned about that would happen to the russian economy, to the russian financial system, to russia's standing and to

russia's geopolitical capability and ambitions, so too that has happened because today, we together with our allies and partners around the world have put in motion a set of swift, severe and decisive measures holding back russia's economies and financial systems and set back russia and putin's geopolitical ambitions not for days or weeks but years to come. >> i know you are at the agency in charge of the geopolitical calculations but i am sure you have seen the images and number of dead and may have an update we don't have. i take all of your points. but not being able to save and protect our aallies, what is th end game for them? >> one, we have been very clear that we have provided unprecedented levels of support for our ukrainian partners beyond the assistance directly

we authorized our nato allies to provide equipment, funds and loan guarantees. we provide read hmm tarean support. if bee also have a commitment to our nato allies. the article five commitment, an attack on one is an attack on all. we have reensured and enforced the'll lies on the eastern front. if we stand by the commitment, the pledge an attack on one is an attack on all. it has the same meaning as it did in nato's founding.

>> earlier he said i am for sanctions and 100% of them and pointed out that the early rounds of sanctions were hoped to deter vladimir putin from invading ukraine. they did not. he invaded ukraine. now the point of sanctions is to punish putin. my question are there any other set of objectives beyond upon punishment orr change. what is the evidence that there is sanctions we can impose and putin will have his behavior affects the way we hope. >> these are not just punitive. they are intended to shape and contour putin's next moves. you were right that putin was

committed to the path and he has apparently been committed to at this time path for some time. that is why we have been warning for the potential for pongts now. the sanctions announced on monday and today will be severe. they will have a profound impact on the financial system. russia's ability to acquire and to import 50% of if the quality it will need fors it if the this is to do everything that we can to prevent -- the ability to mount a massive large scale

bloody and devastating campaign against ukraine and against the ukrainian people. in some ways it is not just a territorial invasion. putin wants to wage war against the ukrainian people and wants to crush them. as a national security advisor the other day. we are trying to make it clear that costs that will be imposed today and the cost that tell build over time. rchltd our goal is to prevent and to deter the worst case scenario. >> ned, i want to come back to you with what happens next. for days, joe mccaffrey has talked about it and others talked about the russian desire to install a pro-kremlin

government. do you feel that the government has clarity, the u.s. government has clarity on exactly what putin's plans are in the coming days? >> we know what he wants to do. we have been warning about it for some time. we know that he has amassed forces along russia's -- along ukraine's borders to the east. to the north. forces that in some ways are now flowing into ukraine, positioning him to mount a massive invasion and to put at threat the ukrainian government and as we made it clear with the release of our sbths and our british allies did the same to install a government that is friendly tomas cow. we know that is his intention and that it has been his intention for some time. a russian federation that tried to destabilize the ukrainian government.

this is not a new desire. we know the ukrainian people are resilient. we know the ukrainian people are standing up. we know they will continue to stand up. we know they will fight for their country. we will be standing by them providing them what they need throughout the from process going forward. >> the white house briefing has just started. let's dip into that. >> feel free to go. >> i will turn it over now. >> thank you jen. good to see you. this is a briefing i never wanted to give. i would like to start by saying the prayers of the entire world are with the people of ukraine today as they suffer an unjustified start of the crisis. if putin chooses to invade the cost to russia will be immediate and profound tos it financial system, economy and technology base ands it strategic position in the world as the world has

witnessed putin made his choice. he rejected diplomacy and chose war and today the president announced our response. because of putin's choices his flagrant violation of international law and utter disregard for the principles that under pin piece and security across the world we will ensure his decision is remembered as a strategic failure. we impose an unprecedented package of financial sanctions and export restrictions in lock step with our allies and partners that will isolate russia and shut down access to cutting edge technology and undercut putin's strategic ambitions. let me walk you through a few spusks. on financial sanctions. i stood at the podium on tuesday saying we would impose the most severe sanctions levied on russia if putin continued with

the invasions. today we follow through. russia's two largest financial institutions together holding more than half of the russian banking system's assets, over $750 billion in total. vtb, we will freeze all of the assets touching the u.s. financial system and prohibit u.s. persons from doing any business with the bank. spare bank, we will severs it access and freeze the access of and prohibit business with three russian banks with combined assets over $70 billion and restrict investors for 13 of the most critical russian state-owned enterprises which have assets near $1.5 trillion and impose sanctions on the executives on the state-owned executions and additional

russian elites who are complicit and their family members. those that shared in the kremlin's corrupt games and stored wealth in yachts and cars will share in the pain of the measures. these are the most impactful sanctions the u.s. has taken. financial sanctions are just a part of the response. we are also unveiling an unprecedented set of export restrictions developed closely with japan, canada, new zealand, united states and taiwan. sweeping restrictions to impair putin's military capabilities and will deny exports across russia to sensitive cutting edge technology, primarily targeting russia's defense, aerospace and

maritime sectors and in total the united states and our partners will effectively be cutting off half of all high-tech imports going in to russia including cushing russia's access to semiconductors and other foundational technology that russia needs. working in tandem it will prevent putin's aspirations to power. the russian stock market plunged over 30% before being halted by regulators. the ruble weakened to the lowest rate ever and the price the market is charging the russian government to the borrow is above frchld 50 to be clear this

is not the outcome that we wanted. it is a tragedy for the people of ukraine and a very raw deal for the russian people. putin's war of choice has required us to do what we said and make sure it will be a war of failure. let me talk about russia's impact. to be clear, our sanctions are not designed to cause any disruption to the current flow of energy from russia to the world. we carved out energy payments on a time-bound basis to allow for an orderly transition of the flows away from sanctioned institutions and we provided other licenses to provide for an orderly wind down of business. let me stop there and take your

questions. >> i just had a really quick question. you said that it would take time before the economy and the inflation. what is is the timetable? how long do you think it will take until we have results? >> well, look. these are costs that build over time and as i mentioned last friday. any leader has to pay attention to the living standards of your country. already we are seeing the effects of the measures. before the sanctions were implemented inflation in russia was 8.7%. the ruble lost 15% of its value. today the costs escalated dramatically. it will be up to president putin to decide how much cost he is willing to bear. we want to make sure it will be

a -- due to our fortification of nato eastern flank and the renewed unity and energy and determination. >> i want to tell everyone what we are listening to. this is the department national security advisor who started off today wrapping up with ned price the state department spokesman. he is explaining the mechanical and the structural underpinnings of the sanctions announced by president joe biden earlier today. i want to quickly bring in our panel to explain what we heard so far. jeremy, tom nichols tell me what

you are hearing and looking for heading into another night and morning in ukraine. >> well, i think one thing is clear that we were not going to stop putin from doing this. it was long planning, i was really glad to see the admiral talking about the unhinged nature of putin's speeches over the last couple of days. i think that is a reminder we can talk about sanctions, you know, export controls and all of the other things we are doing that we ought to be doing but vladimir putin is going to do this. the thing i am curious about is where he thinks -- not where we think but where he thinks he is going to stop. what he thinks the end state of this invasion is. he has been circling kyiv. he wants to affect a rijetstream change. there is almost a strange detachment from the real world

here. putin does not understand it is not 1968 or 1956. there is a really disconcerting aspect of this that putin seems to think that it will be somehow a one and done. he was going to go in, change the regime. ukraine is going to be brought into the russian embrace. you know, i guess i am increasingly curious about just how far the russians are going to go with this because i think the other thing he did not count on is how unpopular it seems to be in russia now. >> i wanted to ask you about that. our colleague showed demonstrations that were considering all of the risks to ordinary russians to demonstrate at all, huge. i understand it cuts both ways. putin doesn't care. it is not a democracy where people express their first amendment rights. but huge demonstrations.

zero appetite. it would appear, not just among these people but among the russian population for a deadly ground invasion of their neighbors and in many instances friends in ukraine. what is your sense? just keep going on whatever it is that putin does, how does he sustain it? >> you know, i am not sure how he sustains it. i am not sure if he knows how he sustains it. one of the things that i found disturbing about it among the fact it is a war ragesing in the middle of europe. if putin had the meeting with his own cabinet. they were sitting there like we don't know what is going on either. his own foreign intelligence chief is stammering through his answers. i think it has been in the

planning for a long time but that the people around putin are mystified by what he is doing and because what heed is doing is based on an upon emotional to the fall of the ussr. i think that it is telling. it is not a democracy. it is is not like putin will be toppled by demonstrations in the streets. but when you consider the risk to the average russian citizen for going to the streets this is a big deal. putin does not like this. putin, he may not fear it in the sense of somehow that it would destabilize him instantly, but there is something about the demonstrations that when they happened in the past, putin really cracks down on them because he really does not like that. he really does not like people mobilizing against him. he is deeply allergic to that

type of criticism. he will notice this. whether it does anything to change his mind, i think it won't. i think we are talking about a long-term process of trying to deal with at this time problem. but i think that it really tells you something. as you say, the russians don't hate the ukrainians. i think putin underestimated the degree to which russians and ukrainians are not longer sovietized the way that he is. thinking of themselves as ethnic russians, people alike rather than under the red banner he misses and grieves for so much.

>> jeremy, i guess tom nichols put in play the question of psyops, the human level of vladimir putin here. we talk about bombs and bullets and we talk about the maps. it is like a risk board. we talk about the sanctions. we talk about all of this stuff in a very abstract way. in truth there is a guy who is doing all of this stuff. and one of the questions that people at the cia and people in the national security and in intelligence in america do, they think about the psychology of these people. we have the debates. is this a ashl actor in their own terms. as you confronted at this time questions or time what do you think vladimir putin thinks the end game is here? realistic scenario planning way. what do you think he is pursuing

as his out strategy? >> well, i think this is a very pertinent intelligence question. if you look at the intelligence article that would appear in the president's daily brief, oftentimes there would be a side bar column that would be more of a personal window into what really motivated putin. something from his childhood or former professional career years. something that would indicate exactly where he wants to take this. our intelligence community is scrutinizing that. they are talking to experts and they are trying to analyze it. i think that putin has outlandish grand ambitions to reassert the ussr and to avenge the fall of the berlin wall and the lifting of the iron curtain. i think he saw it as the great open wound that was hurting the russian federation and the russian people and i think he believes democracy is a flawed model and that he thinks the united states is in terminal

decline and that our own political chaos. and there are some elements of truth. our own political chaos is something that actually hampers our ability to show a united front. at the end of the day putin is foundational wrong. democracies are stronger. i think that as we talked body earlier the realignment that is happening here and what the intelligence community is folk under the circumstancesed on, the alignment between china and russia. that is what is different and that u.s. policy makers will need to tackle. china has a forceful foreign policy. they are important on the international markets. sanctioning china for example would do a lot of damage to the united states economy. we have to think through how we will confront the new axis. >> tom nichols, after what

jeremy just said, you know, you have writ then if the last week or so the paranoid world view and both grandeos and paranoid at the same time. asking you to answer it is unfair, but listen about it, as practical matter, sitting up there at the naval war college, if putin takes kyiv, knowing what we know about his psychology, what do you think the next move could be or what are the range of next moves if he's sitting there occupying this country? what next? what are the possibilities? >> well, there's a couple of things. first of all, there are other former soviet areas that he will definitely think about going after, and i think moldova would probably be an easy addition to that list. but again, i think -- i'm not sure that he is sure. i think in part, this was a reaction that's been brewing for

years, since 2014. i was one of the folks who thought that seizing crimea and moving into the donbas was a deeply emotional reaction to being humiliated in 2014. and i think he's been stewing about that ever since. i think aside from trying to consolidate his gains in ukraine, which i don't think he's going to be able to do, this is partly why, john, you asked about a rational actor. i think he's rational, but i think he is somewhat detached from reality about a lot of things. he's rational in the sense that he can think through problems. he's not insane. but rationality also implies the ability to process information in some intelligible way that's connected to reality. i mean, i find it hard to believe that the ukrainians, 40 million ukrainians are going to

say, okay, we got a new regime and it's instituted by moscow and we'll all go back to work now. it didn't work in 2014. i don't think it's going to happen now. so he may have quite a bit on his hands if he thinks that he can just sort of implant a new regime and go home. it doesn't work that way. but in military terms, he may try to strengthen logistical and military infrastructure connections into russia, move toward moldova, put russian peace keepers, this is another thing he's done in other former soviet republics, leave but say that part of the price of going is that near ukraine's western borders there have to be russian military units to help keep the peace and, you know, assist the ukrainians and so on. but i mean, i admit, i'm kind of flummoxed by that myself, to think about where he goes next.

and i think he got through the planning stage and really committed a lot of thought and effort, but i think this is a case where, you know, he hasn't -- i think he expects things to go differently than they're probably going to go in the next weeks and months. >> jeremy, as we're talking about him as a sort of living on the knife's edge of rational and irrational, stuck in a time capsule, harkening for a time that his own population isn't the majority of them. i'm thinking of this question i asked you earlier in the week about our domestic divisions. and i want to put it differently. what does putin take from it? because you think about his version of a pdb, surely, he sees all of the, i don't know what the cable friendly word is, but the butt kissing he's getting on fox news from the likes of donald trump last night who was showcased on laura ingraham's program as the invasion commenced, as the ukrainian people were under

attack by russia, the sycophants continued their love parade for vladimir putin. what does vladimir putin get from that in term of a boost, and does it give him more confidence to stamp down the protests in his own country? >> oh, he is no doubt emboldened by that. he looks at the body politic here and throughout the west and he tries to cherry pick those voices that support him. and undoubtedly, when someone calls him a genius or someone lavishes praise on him, even if it's to ostensibly marvel at the military sophistication, ooh, ah, even if it's done in that light, like there's some -- somebody is impressed with putin, putin will obviously pocket that and take that as an endorsement of his activities. and look, i think one of the things that we have to confront, the reality of, is over the last five years, putin got a lot out of the united states in terms of our degradation of the fate oth

alliance. the united states almost pulled out of nato under donald trump, and it happened almost at the last minute that we prevented that catastrophe from happening. imagine if we were sitting here today on february 24th, 2022, and the nato alliance didn't exist. we would actually have arrangements to allow us to flow forces to poland, to romania, to lithuania, to latvia, to estonia because we already pulled out of the nato alliance and broken it several years ago. where would we be today? we would be looking down the barrel of putin's gun aimed right at the democracies in the heart of europe. and you know, again, i think that's where but for the grace of god were we able to avoid that situation because we need to strengthen that alliance, not weaken it. that's a big policy issue that's going to dominate the conversation for years to come. >> jeremy bash and tom nichols, thank you so much for spending

time with us today. really grateful to both of you. >> since we have been on the air, we is learned the breaking news here at home. in the last few minutes, three minneapolis police officers involved in the killing of george floyd have been found guilty of violating floyd's rights. they have been indicted for failing to provide medical aid to george floyd and two of the three have been indicted for failing to intervene to stop officer derek chauvin. over the course of a month, prosecutors argued that the three officers did little more than watch as derek chauvin put his knee on floyd's neck for nearly nine minutes. the defense argued the officers trusted chauvin, who was the veteran officer on the scene, the officers could now face life in prison. quick break for us. we'll be right back. right back.

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for being here for the whole two hours and for helming these hours on monday and tuesday this week. >> see you tomorrow? >> yes, tomorrow, same place. our special coverage continues right now on "the beat" with my colleague, ari melber. hi, ari. >> hi, nicolle. appreciate your coverage and thank you. i want to welcome everyone to "the beat." ynl ari mallber and the world is responding and reacting right now to vladimir putin's new war in ukraine. the scene right now in kyiv, the capital, we have a city under curfew now amidst the ongoing attack ordered bide vladimir putin. senior defense officials tell nbc the goal is to capture kyiv and topple the formal ukrainian government. meanwhile, according to a ukrainian defense official,