>> only to wake up this morning to find out they were getting on the train to leave. tomorrow there's another distribution of weapons here for people who have military experience. it all depends on your family situation, people who have young children are at the very least sending their kids out of the country. it also depends on the financial situation. some people don't have the ability to leave, don't have the money for transport, don't have a place to stay, don't have relatives. i think we're seeing all three of these very difficult life decisions happening all across

ukraine and in villages. is -- it looks like ukraine is putting up a tougher fight than the russians expected. >> first of all, they are watching it so there's not a perfect picture. the u.s. doesn't have any military, they're on the ground. surveillance is not as easy from above and surveillance assets are no longer flying in airspace. they have less of a picture than they did a few days ago. that being said, they are watching this happen, the senior defense official said that their assessment is ukraine is putting up more of a fight than russia expected. so a couple of days ago i was telling you about this assessment that there would be this large scale, you know, i used the term judiciously but shock and awe, cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missile, artillery strikes, that they would pound the eastern of the country and move along eight,

nine lines of defense, up north in kharkiv, and there's a major line coming in towards kharkiv from a place called belograd in russia. that's where there's a large amount of fighting. these are the three contested areas they're going into. they've also flown about 200 missiles according to a u.s. defense official, not as many as we expected. but make no joke about it, this is still a large-scale invasion. >> they're being slowed down, they're not being stopped. >> it's a major speed bump but they are not stopping them. >> erin mclaughlin is on the hook for us in kyiv. tell us what you're seeing right now. is it a city that is still under ukrainian control? >> well, there is an eerie calm here in kyiv this evening.

an hour ago we were hearing another -- any number of explosions in the distance. we've been hearing explosions and sirens all day. it's clear that kyiv is under attack. the first russian troops arrived here in the city earlier today. we heard gunfire as russian soldiers fired on ukrainian military in the streets, civilians in these areas were told to shelter in place to stay at home. there was some concern over what could potentially happen if a civilian came out and encountered what they thought was a russian troop -- or a ukrainian troop rather because according to ukrainian government officials, russian troops had been found wearing a ukrainian military fatigues. so people here at this point don't know who is patrolling their streets, whether it's a

ukrainian military or if it's russian military. and this is a terrifying situation, chuck. i was at the metro station earlier today watching as families were huddled as the subway, which was still working in the city, the trains were still going around the city but people on the platforms were huddling with their cats, with their go bags. i was talking to one woman who had packed a go bag. she was there with her friends and her kitten and she was telling me that she was terrified but at the same time she was determined to fight for her country. she said she was not going to give up on a free ukraine. i spoke to another woman, 21 years old, she was there cradling her 13-year-old sister. they'd been separated from their parents when the sirens went off in the city. they went to ground and she was very concerned if the situation got worse or something happened

but what happened to her family. these are the scenarios that people here in kyiv are being presented with. thousands of people crushed into the local national train station here in kyiv. people were seen passing their children over the crowd trying to get their babies on board the train, trying to get them to safety. people here are facing an extraordinarily desperate situation and no one here knows what tonight will bring, chuck. >> and erin mclaughlin, please stay safe yourself. thanks very much. let me bring in general allen in here. i was speaking with james stavridis today and let's assume he's semi-rational. >> let me start by saying i want to thank you and your colleagues

for your reporting. because it is a free media that's going to be shining the light on what will potentially become a series of war crimes. it just gets worse and worse. thank you for that. to your question specifically, it depends on what his ultimate aims are. if his aims are ultimately to take down the central government and to place a puppet regime in the situation in kyiv, that may be all he needs to do. but i think we know that the ukrainian people are going to resist this. and, yes, we have internally displaced people, refugees inside the country, flowing across the border, this has all the makings to be a humanitarian catastrophe. but it seems that putin's intent is to decapitate the government, to cause a regime change. and he has to take kyiv to do that. the question then becomes does he have to take the entire country in order to end the violence and the resistance.

and i think he's going to have a problem with the ukrainians. they are their own people. they are a unique nationality. they have a national identity. i think they're going to fight. whether they fight as organized military unit and those organized military units are making it difficult for the russians. they are not achieving their objectives as fast as they thought they could. i think the ukrainians are going to have to fight. he's going to have to take the whole country if he wants to pacify it. >> would you advise zelenskyy should sit down and -- not in minsk? would you tell him, hey, i'll see you in helsinki and let's do this? >> i would tell him to resist the russians. at this point vladimir putin has been very clear that he doesn't foresee an outcome, a political outcome in ukraine that includes

zelenskyy. he's already declared the central government as a group of neonazis and drug gang members. so it doesn't seem to me zelenskyy has any motivation to negotiate with vladimir putin. he has a lot of motivation to lead his country in this aggression. >> explain what that is. >> it sends a very powerful signal that nato is preparing, nato is moving to defend itself. these are high readiness forces, they are trained, they are tied into nato command and control. and as this force is activated as the secretary-general has said, how much of it is deployed east remains to be determined. that will be part of the planning that is being executed right now. how much of it remains in place

will be determined. but just the signal that nato has activated this force sends a very powerful signal that nato is united, that the north atlantic counsel has supported through the secretary-general, the superb allied commander and that nato is prepared to resist and defend nato territory with its very best forces. and that's the signal that the activation of this force conveys. >> courtney, we have 50,000 troops in europe. >> 80,000 u.s. troops. if we sent more to europe, where would they be coming from? where would that be and do you sense that there's some sort of contingency planning that has happened? >> there's one little piece that we saw play out yesterday and it was the announcement of 7,000 more troops from fort stewart, georgia to germany. they will likely be assigned to this nato response force

depending on how big a contribution the u.s. ultimately gives. but there was an acknowledgement that the pentagon that that response force had not yet been activated and they made the decision to send them forward. even if they don't activate it, at least we'll have them in the region, they can exercise, they can be used as more of a unilateral, b bilateral deployment. the reality is they will not be used according to every official i speak with, there is no appetite to putting them into ukraine to fight russia. >> admiral, what is the line in your head of how many troops you'd like to see in these four nato allies, the three baltic companies and poland. what's the troop level force that you think doesn't rattle putin to think it's an offensive

gesture versus a defensive gesture? >> well, that would be a very difficult number to estimate because nobody really knows what's going on inside putin's head. so i don't know what threshold would be his consideration to determine that the rapid movement of american forces and the nato response force and these high readiness combat units, whether those offer any kind of a threat to his unfolding plans in ukraine or threaten the security of his operations. i have no idea what's in his head. but we know what we think and i would leave that to general walters, who is the supreme allied commander of europe, we know what we think those forces ought to number and where they ought to go and my guess is that they are moving to predetermined locations to be ready to defend nato territory should this spill over intentionally into nato. >> courtney, do you have any sense from your sources that we know what zelenskyy's plan is

for continuity of government, a government in exile? if he decides not to leave, what is known about this? >> it's not completely outside the realm of danger but right now it's not an area under direct assault. the question is whether he has made the calculation that that makes the government look unstable. and gives -- almost gives the russians -- >> looks like they're handing them kyiv. >> exactly and with the ukrainian military not fight as strongly. that's going to have to be a decision he makes but i do get the sense the u.s. knows more than what they're saying. >> general, and courtney, i appreciate both of you. thank you both and be safe.

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welcome back. it took just a few days for russian forces to reach kyiv suggesting it's just a matter of when ukraine's capital city falls not if. russian forces met much more resistance than expected. major world powers from the united states to russia know all too well it's one thing to invade a country, it's one thing to try to occupy it, it's another one to successfully occupy it. joining me is a man who literally wrote the book on counter insurgencies.

it's general david petraeus and and was also ahead of the cia and he may have some thoughts of what's going on in the mind of putin, though i don't know if anyone wants to crawl inside that brain. general, right now it's still army versus army here. how do you expect this insurgency to sort of take hold? >> what we have right now is still organized units. and, by the way, the russians have not collapsed the ukrainian command and control. they haven't taken even remotely a major city yet. they are, as my great friend general allen noted, off their timeline, this has to be unsettling to them. they could not contain control of that airfield 20 kilometers north weise of kyiv they had to bring more assets in today. so they are encountering more

significant resistance and more determination than i think they expected. and, by the way, this was always the question a lot of us had. with the ukrainians fight? will zelenskyy lead his country or will he do what others did? and we've got answers to that. they will fight. by the way, it appears that the citizenry is determined to fight as well. it's forgotten but when we invaded iraq, i was a two-star general at that time, we were applauded. we were an army of liberation, for a period of time, which only has a half life of course and then you become an army of occupation. the russians will have no half life. they are already an army of occupation. it occurs to me you've heard putin rerefer to denaziification.

you know who the nazis are here, it's the russians and this is the way the ukrainians will regard them, the way that occupied countries regarded the nazis again during world war ii but with almost the population united against them. all males expected to take up arms and so forth. so a lot of us even before the invasion started said 190,000 troops sounds like a lot but when you strip out all of the elements, it's a lot less. and counterinsurgency is very manpower intensive. they don't have anywhere near the troops. i think they will have a very tough time -- they'll defeat the ukrainian conventional forces. that's again not in question. it's how long it takes, how determined can they be as they are taking very tough losses they lost more on day one, the ukrainians, i believe, very close to the worst months

of american losses during the height of the surge in iraq, which is the bloodiest period of our time there. so, again, they're really fighting and even when that actually in a sense collapses or becomes, as we say in the airborne, little groups of paratroopers that have to fight on, they have to faces citizenry. there's going to be enormous destruction. they'll level the building, which will engender more hatred and more resistance. so i think they're in for a very tough time. they don't have anywhere near the forces that they need to control the whole country, much less even kyiv plus everything say east and all along the southern coastline, which is what it appears their initial objectives are. >> and if they do, the whole goal is for -- it's no doubt he thought that ukraine would fold fast and he thought the zelenskyy government would collapse quickly.

none of that has happened. he's got to have more fingerprints on this than he perhaps thought. if he attempts to sort of kyiv strategy and sort of stops at kyiv because he just doesn't have the manpower to occupy everything, i assume that makes it easier for a power like us, the united states, to arm this insurgency because they'll -- western ukraine will be the capital of this resistance, will it not? >> that's the key question on this front and you may have seen that interview i did in the atlantic the other day, is will the ukrainians retain a substantial portion of their country from which they could mount this kind of insurgency? because obviously if they lose the entire country, then you're providing support from nato nations. that's going to be challenging. that would be difficult for some of them to accept. maybe you can do stuff in a co-vert realm but anything that is overt, the nato

secretary-general is going to offer additional air defense assets to ukraine, which is put to good use, the stingers that we gave them, which as you showed earlier, the bringing down of a russian aircraft. and it apparently brought down quite a few. and they've used the man portable tank systems to good effect as well. >> put on your cia hat and let me ask you this. how did we have five straight presidents and i'm going to go back to bill clinton, who all thought you could rationally deal with putin? i say this and maybe we should exhaust 23 years of this with him, but it feels as if a lot of presidents went down this road thinking putin will be a rational actor at some point and he seems to always prove those presidents wrong and has he done it again? >> well, i think we are by nature an optimistic people. hope sometimes triumphs over reality until it collides with

reality. and that's what we've had here. gosh, i remember, it was vice president biden who spoke at the munich security conference right after the obama administration was elected who together with secretary of state hillary clinton had the reset button out talking about achieving a reset of the relationship with russia. obviously was doomed. so, but again, there is always this sense, we're americans by golly and we can always prevail and optimism is a forced multiplier and those kinds of sayings. so i think all of that is gone. i think the administration did a very impressive job of you might call it laundering a combination of open source information intelligence and classified intelligence and releasing it to the public well in advance of putin taking actions that have now been proven correct without exposing sources and methods. so, again, i think that's all been stripped away.

the bloom is off that rose or whatever. >> the admiral said that this might not end until the hand of god or a julius caesar ending for putin. he seems more paranoid than ever about who is around him. what's your sense of who's around him? >> you may remember cesar's end came at the end of a long speech. we've heard the long speech. this is very risky business. for those that conspired against hitler, if you don't succeed, the penalties are pretty extreme. they've all been elevated to their positions and they've depended on him. of course he is in the ultimate bubble. we saw that bizarre surreal,

orwellian setting in which he gave that somewhat crazed speech and no one was going to stand up against him. i mean, his intelligence chief was stammering. no one really can, again, even call slightly into question in contrast, frankly, to what a lot of us sought to do in various positions over the years. i used to say preserve or protect the iconoclads. i want to hear them. don't shut that guy out. i think we have to accept all of this, all of this reality and it is possible that there could be some pain that some of those around him might try to figure out a way to usher him into retirement but i think probably more likely, chuck, it's just the unrest on the street, despite the way the

demonstrators. got dashed into vehicles, given a criminal record and there is unrest in russia. this has amplified that very substantially. this is pouring gasoline on burning embers. that's what i would expect to see cause him some concern because keep in mind one of the missions he had here was to get his popularity ratings back up again. >> that ain't working here. >> and again, in the past after 2014, he was able to do just that. now i think that's got to be unsettling to him and maybe at some point also he actually is willing to sit down, maybe not in minsk but maybe warsaw. >> i just saw your dog come in. he's about to get your attention. general, i really appreciate you coming out and sharing your expertise. >> all a pleasure. >> speaking of that unrest in russia that general petraeus

just mentioned where protests are being held and we're seeing a massive response from a russian police force. according to one protest monitoring group more than 1,700 people have been detained amid protests over this war of choice by vladimir putin. coming up, the cost of war. the humanitarian price grows as ukrainians leave their homes. keep it here. ns leave their homs keep it here need to get your prescriptions refilled? capsule pharmacy can hand deliver your medications - today - for free. go to capsule.com. we handle your insurance. all you have to do is schedule delivery. go to capsule.com to get started in 15 seconds today. we hit the bike trails every weekend shinges doesn't care.

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welcome back. thousands of ukrainians continue to flee across the country's western border today. the safety of neighboring nations like poland and romania, potentially triggering another european migrant crisis as civilians run from war. they were prepared to take around a million refugees. romania said they had the capacity for about 500,000. over 100,000 ukrainians have left their home and they estimate up to 4 million people will flee ukraine in the situation continues to deteriorate. the chaos of the conflict means we may not know the full extent of the crisis for days, weeks or raps longer. kelly is reporting for us from the border between poland and ukraine. kelly, as i understood it, the polls for now trying to loosen some of their border restrictions that were covid related and things like this. we had heard there was i think a

two-mile backup yesterday. what are we seeing today? >> it's much longer than that tonight, chuck. from what we've heard from people here talking to their relatives on the other side of the border crossing and that is the crossing right behind me, it's basically been gridlocked all day long. no cars, very few of them are getting into ukraine. very few cars are coming out of ukraine. most of the people are walks across because the gridlock on the other side goes back more than 20 miles. women and children are getting out of their cars. women are pushing strollers, pulling their luggage, whatever they could carry with them to make it to the border. some of them have traveled for hours just to get to the border only to be stuck there on the other side, huddled with thousands of others in the cold. now under darkness with little children trying to get across. there are just masses of people

there. and there are also, chuck, interestingly people going in the other direction. we spoke to a couple of men earlier today, one of whom is 35 years old. he was in the military back in 2014, served in the east of the country in the donbas and he came back from a job in austria. his family is still in. came back from his job in austria to go inside and take up arms and fight for his country. this is what he had to say. couy this is what he had to say >> p.

>> reporter: it's difficult. he told us he wasn't afraid to die and that he really just had to go back. you know, the situation here in poland is developing as the hours wear on as well. they've had such a huge influx of people and, chuck, you mentioned they're prepared to take up to a million people in this country, but really they don't have the infrastructure here, particularly not at this border crossing. so people are arriving now tonight and they have nowhere to get warm. we've seen women and children going into a very small supermarket here just trying to get out of the elements and huddle up for some warmth. the locals here are now volunteering to take them to different shelters. and now we've just recently seen, yeah, we've seen some bus

buses arrive and they're trying to get them to shelters. >> sounds like they need some help. kelly on the border of ukraine. thank you for your briefing. and nato's rapid response force has been activated. we'll bring you the state department briefing live when it begins. and we are just moments away from the president's official announcement of his supreme court pick. for us that grew up in miami, i have to say i'm pretty excited about this with judge jackson. stay with us. with judge jackso. stay with us ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean.

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welcome back. turning now to some video just released by the white house in the last hour. this announces judge ketanji brown jackson's nomination to the supreme court. >> i saw the candidate with the strongest credentials, record, character and dedication to the rule of law. that's why i'm excited to nominate one of the nation's

brightest legal minds. judge ketanji brown jackson. >> you are looking right now at live pictures of the white house where in just a few minutes the president is set to make this historic nomination. judge jackson will be the first black woman ever nominated to the united states supreme court. we will hear from her following the president's remarks. mike memoli joins me from the white house and pete williams is always with us. >> he went to palmetto high school, we're very excited in miami dade public high school and take your harvard and do that. judge jackson was the front-runner it seemed like from the day he took the oath. ia -- yeah, chuck. this is the fastest a democratic president has moved to fill a supreme court vacancy in decades. if you look back to the presidential transition when president-elect biden had a

briefing with his team about potential supreme court nominations, when he filled the d.c. circuit court see the that garland vacated last march, it was very clear this was in some ways the longest time a sitting president has had to think about how he would fill the seat. then you go back two years to today, to the moment when he pledged that he would select a black woman should a vacancy occur. so it was sort of similar to the veep steaks when you think about it. we often talked about it was kamala harris versus the field. it wasn't clear who the field candidate might be but it was between harris and somebody else. and the same was always true here. obviously judge childs from south carolina had a very vocal supporter and that was an interesting calculus at the white house as well around lindsey graham's very vocal support. but everything president biden did throughout this process was very clearly pointing to judge jackson and when you consider how crowded the president's plate has been in these last few weeks, i've heard from a number of officials who have said that

only kept this process all the more focused, all the more leak free and when you're the the front-runner, that's a good place to me. >> mcconnell made it clear he wasn't going to vote for her, said she'd only done two opinions while on the circuit, which told me he wanted to make that an issue. what could be the confirmation issue that becomes front and center if there is one? >> well, i think it's the same one that may have come up when she was considered for the court of appeals, and that is for a time, you know, she was a public defender. she did have some time as a criminal defense lawyer. now frankly i think that cuts both ways. and the republicans will also look at some of her court decisions that were reversed on appeal. for example, she was the district court judge who said the white house counsel did have to appeal before the senate

judiciary committee. it was a very muscular opinion. it was the one where famously she said presidents are not kings. the court of appeals said that was not a decision for the court. don mcgann ended up testifying anyway, negotiating an agreement with the committee. she had opinions overturned when she was on the district and she has been on the court of appeals for only eight months. it's a short period of time but it's not the shortest. david souter was on the federal court of appeals for only five months. those may be things she's been asked about. to some extent it's going to be a replay of some of the decisions she's had and three district judges still voted for her. >> including lindsey graham who went out of his way to call her a favorite of the far left. i think lindsey was trying to

talk about judge childs a little bit. >> clearly. >> pete, where would you put judge jackson? obviously she's on the liberal side. where is she going to fit in? what do you expect from her? kagan has her one role, what do you expect with judge jackson? >> well, you know, she'll come on to the court, first of all, as the second youngest justice. she's 51. amy coney barrett is 50. she'll be among the youngest. she does have some experience as a federal judge, remember. she was eight years on the trial bench. so she certainly knows her onions. she knows the law. she knows the kind of things that tend to come here in the federal courts are the same kind of questions about administrative law and how federal agencies do their jobs that the supreme court tends to face. you know, in that sense she perhaps has more experience that would count in that way than

childs would. now of course she's a former supreme court clerk as well. she clerked for stephen breyer, the man she's been nominated to replace and she was on the u.s. sentencing commission, another thing in common with stephen breyer. i suspect she won't be the liberal conscience that sotomayor as taken for herself nor the technician that kagan can be as well. i'd say she's be if the middle. it's a super 6-3 majority for the conservatives, but she's young, she'll be there a long time. and if she's confirmed, a long time on the bench ahead of her. >> mike memoli, we know that the president was quietly calling some republicans when he could. it is the ultimate compartmentalization issue that they've had to deal with with

the ukraine crisis right now. what is success for them on a bipartisan vote here? just anything more than she got the first time? and she got 53 the first time, which meant she got three republicans, collins, republica, collins, murkowski and lindsay graham. >> yeah, he did want a strong bipartisan vote, and that seemed to be one of the tea leaves that folks wanted to read as potentially elevating chiles in this process. and mitt romney was interesting in talking about his conversation with the president, suggesting he would be open to somebody as long as the qualifications, and who is it in that video that you played today, chuck, that the white house released, none other than romney's running mate, paul ryan, who has a family relation to this.

i think there's an audience of more than three for her. the pushback was so quick from the white house and so strong on the affirmative action, and that create an opportunity for extra votes as well. >> i put the under/over at 56. let's see what happens. mike memoli, pete williams, thank you both. as we look at a live picture from kyiv, we are also awaiting a briefing from the u.s. state department coming up shortly on the latest that they know and are willing to share about ukraine. we also await biden's scheduled remarks at the top of the hour. it's a busy day. you're watching "meet the press daily." watching "meet the pres daily.

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so what's yours going to be? welcome back. just a few moments ago oklahoma republican senator made it official and announced he will require at the end of the year. he announced his decision at a news conference that he attended by phone as he is dealing with a mild case of senate. he was first elected to the houses in 1994, and to the senate in 1996. under oklahoma state law the special election to fill the rest of his term, so he already endorsed his chief of staff, luke holland, to succeed him. here's a democrat from rhode

island. you don't see this very often from both sides of the aisle. jim was perhaps my first foe on climate change issues but a key ally on my ocean and infrastructures. when he pushes for something, he has an astounding ability get it done. it's so rare you see somebody from one side of the aisle going out of their way to say something nice about somebody else these days. we will see you on sunday, on "meet the press." coverage continues with katy tur right after the break. ith katy r right after the break.

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good to be with you. i am katy tur. we are following two big stories today. in just a few minutes the president will formerly announce his pick for the supreme court. he will introduce ketanji brown jackson at the white house. we will go there once he begins. first, ukraine, here's what we know right now. it's 9:00 p.m. in kyiv where the capital city is bracing for battle as russian forces advance. gunfire and rockets and air-raid sirens can be heard across the city, and residents are being asked to stay home and prepare