messaging over the last eight years has worked and seeped into the u.s. >> you have been warning about this for a very, very long time that this is not an organic movement in the united states in the same way that stupid trucker thing was not an organic movement in canada, it was provided for, paid for and supported by people who have been duped or deliberately misled by people. clint thank you for joining us with your analysis. stay with us we'll check on the ground and then return with alexander vindman. another special hour of velshi begins right now. i'm ali velshi it's 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, 3:00 p.m. in kyiv as ukraine enters day 3 of its invasion by russia. moments ago, secretary of state

tony blinken authorized $350 million for immediate support to ukraine's defense. that brings the total assistance that the united states has committed to ukraine over the past year to more than $1 billion. stunning footage shows a gaping hole in the side of a high-rise apartment building that a ukrainian official tells nbc news was damaged by a russian missile. explosions and gun fire have been heard throughout the night. the u.n. refugee agency said more than 120,000 ukrainians have fled the country. meanwhile, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy took to twitter to debunk misinformation and reiterate and prove he's still in the country, still in the city of kyiv. he's not ordered ukrainian troops to stand down. just this morning he made a plea to his citizens on telegram, a social app, saying all of those who can return to ukraine, come back to defend ukraine. as ukrainians continue to defend

their country, a senior u.s. defense official said the russians have lost a bit of momentum and expect the invasion is going slower than vladimir putin anticipated. which makes sense when you think of the the russian army and the difficulty of taking one city. they haven't taken one ukrainian city yet. according to the ukrainian ministry of defense, so far russia has lost 14 aircraft, 8 helicopters, 102 tanks, 536 armored combat vehicles, 15 cannon, 1 missile system, 17 pieces of automotive personnel and around 3,000 personnel. on the ukrainian side of things, 198 are dead, including three children. over 1,100 are wounded, including 33 children. these numbers are hard to look at because it looks like a score board. these are people. dead people for an invasion and war that didn't need to happen. it almost feels distasteful to

put this on the screen but you have to know people are dying tonight and yesterday and the night before. the biden administration is working to set up a communication back channel with the russian military to prevent an accidental clash between u.s. and russian forces along the ukrainian border. remember, nato forces are up against the border in poland, in other nato countries. the russians are now far further into ukraine than would have been expected. the russians do border nato in a lot of places so the idea of an accidental air fight or gun fight between americans and russians does exist. these are two nuclear powers and that can escalate into a war between nuclear powers. joining me now kelly cube in poland. she's on the border with ukraine and an active scene where you are because ukrainians have been trying to get out of the country. just two weeks ago there was a since things wouldn't go further

you're now beyond western ukraine, in poland. >> reporter: yeah, we're at the border crossing, the border with ukraine is just right over my shoulder there. you see the building there, that's the processing center. you can see big crowds of people just off in the distance, very close to the building, they're actually going back into ukraine, there are a fair amount of people we've spoken to today who are going back in, taking supplies to their families, in many cases these people live close to the western part of the country. they haven't yet seen russian forces or any sort of conflict in their villages, but they are extremely worried. i talked to one woman today, who was heading back in, carrying a lot of supplies. she lives in poland, her husband and family are back in ukraine. she said she wanted to see her husband before he headed off to the fight. she said that some of her family would think about leaving if the

fighting came closer to their village. but these are the kinds of stories we're hearing, ali. and then farther down, along this path you see all of these people walking toward me. you see people on the grass there looking beyond the fence. they're actually waiting for their loved ones to come across the border from ukraine. and some of these people have been waiting for more than 24 hours, because what we continue to hear from people who are talking to their relatives on the other side is that the crowds are immense and growing. the line just to be processed on foot is more than a mile long. the line of cars leading to the border is more than 20 miles long. these numbers have been building over the past 48 hours. just to give you an idea of the big picture here in poland, un commission for refugees says

that 29,000 people crossed into poland in the first 24 hours of this conflict. and the second 24 hours, so yesterday, 47,000 people just coming into poland. and they're coming in across other borders as well, into romania and moldova. this is not slowing down, ali, if anything it's quickening up. >> i'm intrigued with the people going back, the fact they're taking supplies. overnight you any on the president of ukraine put out a statement saying if you left come back to fight. and he's becoming an inspirational figure. i wonder if some people have decided we're going back. what's that noise we're listening at? you have helicopters taking off, is that what it is? >> reporter: yeah, we have a helicopter just behind the camera now. and i'd love to tell you more about it, but i am not -- i'll have to look into it. it does look like a military

helicopter and, of course, it sounds like one. but i can't see any markings, i'll have to get back to you on that. that's the first we've seen. we haven't typically seen anything like that close to the border here. we have spoken to a lot of people, primarily yesterday and also today who were going back to fight, ali. we spoke to three men yesterday who said clearly we are not staying out of the country while this is happening. we're going back to take up arms against the russians. and this morning when i arrived here, i watched a line of about 20 men all clearly arriving together, headed for the border for the same purpose. >> kelly, thank you for your reporting. we'll come back to you through the course of the morning. joining me now is -- i think i want to go to -- there she is, erin mcloughlin, in a car now, she's been in kyiv the last few days, you guys are moving out of

kyiv now. what's the situation? what are you seeing, erin? >> hey, ali, we moved out of the capital in a southern direction, moving to the south and now we're cutting west. what was remarkable as we were going through the capital was just how empty the streets were. there were very few people out. saw very little in the way of military presence inside the city itself, despite the fact that ukraine is currently under marshall law. we saw little in the way of police officers, it wasn't until we pushed further out of the city that we saw our first military checkpoint, a combination of ukrainian soldiers and civilians. the military seemed to be training civilians how to fire weapons, guns, a javelin. as you can see, the roads here are pretty clear. we've seen very few ukrainians evacuate today. we are seeing this is a country

preparing for war, preparing to go to battle with the russians as the invasion is pushing further into the city, primarily from the north and the east, ali. >> what sort of damage have you seen as you've been driving out? >> reporter: you know, it's been remarkable. again, we are traveling in -- we're traveling away from the city into portions that are currently not occupied by russian forces. the russian forces are in the north and the east, we travelled south and we're moving west. what we're seeing primarily is people preparing to go to war. they're setting up checkpoints, filling sandbags, learning to fire weapons. we're seeing long lines at local markets. people are getting ready here, primarily. no damage that we could see as we travelled through the capital and then in this direction. but i can't speak for the rest of the city, the portions we didn't see in the areas where there are running gun battles and ballistic missiles hitting

buildings. we did not go through those areas. >> stay safe on your journey, keep your team safe. check in with us and we'll continue to check in with you. joining me now is nbc's kier simmons, he's in moscow where the discussion is very different. they were reporting the first couple of days about the successes of the invasion now the story has become much more complicated with respect to the sanctions on the banking sector, the sanctions on people close to vladimir putin and the sanctions on the president himself. the flavor of this has changed a little bit. >> reporter: yeah, ali, it has changed and just in the past 30 minutes we have some important news that i want to just share with you. da dmitry peskov invited our team to a briefing.

what he said in that briefing we were just listening to, he said that the russians paused their operation yesterday for negotiations. but then said when the ukrainian government failed to meet those negotiations to be -- want to be engaged in if those negotiations, the russians have resumed this afternoon their assault according to their plan. now i think that's pretty insightful, ali because what's happening there is the russian government is noticing that the u.s. and western capitals are pointing out that their campaign may not be going as fast as and as well as they had hoped and i think what you're hearing there is the kremlin trying to provide a, frankly, not very believable explanation. in fact, not believable explanation for why it is that they are not yet in control of kyiv.

dmitry peskov also saying about sanctions, the sanctions are serious, but we have prepared in advance. so an admission from the russian government that they have been preparing for heavy sanctions, which suggests that they've been preparing for this assault for some time. but, of course, we know that. another piece of news, ali, we did mention an hour ago that there are restrictions on facebook. we just have begun to see now restrictions on twitter here in russia. unless you're on a vpn, you don't have action to twitter. looks like that happened around 12:00 midday here, 4:00 eastern. what does that tell us? that tells us how nervous the russian government are that the people of russia may see what's going on in ukraine. they want the people of russia only to see what's being broadcast on state television. on sanctioned television. and only read what's being said

in sanctioned news. we mentioned an hour ago that news that a senior correspondent for the russian news organization was thrown out of the foreign ministry pool after organizing a petition of 200 russian journalists saying there should not be war, there's no justification for war. so the picture there is of a very unhappy, uncomfortable, anxious russian society including journalists, officials inside the government and the russian government trying to control opinion here in russia as they continue to pursue these objectives in ukraine. >> while we think about pressure that u.s. journalists have faced in the last couple of years, doing something like that in russia can be career ending. taking part in a protest against vladimir putin alone, the arrest of that could be career ending for you no matter what your position but as a journalist to

sign a petition as to whether a war should or should not be happening that vladimir putin is prosecuting, it's very dangerous. interesting how this is all developing. we'll keep talking to you, kier. brand new information from kier simmons in moscow. joining me now is retired lieutenant colonel alexander vindman, the former director for eastern europe, he's a military fellow at the law fair institution and the author of a book if you have not read, this is the moment to read it, it's call "here, right matters". it'll tell you about russia and ukraine because this man's family is from there, was born there, but it'll tell you about why we may be in this position right now. thank you for being with us. i want to talk to you about volodymyr zelenskyy. you have watched this man since the day he was elected, you've

seen him, you saw the hope with which he was elected. you saw the weight of ukrainian corruption in society weigh on him and impede his administration and his popularity a little bit. you watched him not look like the most informed leader up against american intelligence. and now you are watching this guy daily, once or twice or three times a day, out there on telegram and twitter, rallying his nation and providing the morale necessary for ukrainians to fight the russian army. the evolution of volodymyr zelenskyy in the last two or three years has been remarkable. >> it has been remarkable. frankly it's one of the things i kind of somehow sensed that this guy is not -- i mean, a comedian, a media mogul rising to be the president, that's very unusual. to do that in a country that's in a state of war to face all of those challenges and slowly but

surely overcome those challenges, of course, it is without western support, without u.s. support for the period that donald trump was in power and the transition to the obama administration -- the transition to the biden administration, that was tough. he needs the support. and he's not just the leader of ukraine. he's the leader of the democratic world right now. he's showing the resolve we need as a democracy and to our own leaders how you push back against authoritarianism, that's what's amazing about this man. >> this is an attack on democracy. if you are sitting in america thinking there are things happening that's an attack on democracy, that's true, but this is an attack on democracy as well. but let me ask you about what it is that volodymyr zelenskyy needs to do right now if you are in the nfc right now, someone in the white house said to volodymyr zelenskyy that said we have a plan to get you out because he's target number one in the country if they can

assassinate him or arrest him, that takes the russian movement into ukraine much farther. he has declined that invitation. he said i need ammunition, i don't need a ride, actually. >> he needs to be doing what he is doing. but he also needs to listen to the council of his military advisers that understand the military battlefield, what he needs to start doing, the numbers you rattled off in the beginning are shocking. the costs imposed on russian air force, the ground forces, hundreds of armored vehicles destroyed. that's pretty amazing. that's not what i would have expected to see. but what that shows is that there is just the tip. the leading edge of a spearhead that's being blunted behind that is a long logistics tail. as these operations continue they need to be sustained, they keep moving deeper and deeper into the country in certain cases but they're exposed.

the russians moved too fast to try to get their targets, but as they attempt to resupply they could get punished. this is where the russian army gets ground down and brought to a halt. we need to understand the be'mouth the ukrainian army is facing. as their air force is degraded, they need unmanned aerial vehicles. this can be packaged into a lend/lease programs, whatever the ukrainians want we give it to them. they should be able to defend themselves, this does not violate the rules of the game between super powers that have operated through proxy warfare for generations. >> we're looking at a chart comparing militaries, russia and ukraine. nothing there that's close between ukraine and russia. by several -- by a factor of

many, the russian military is better trained and equipped than the ukrainian military. what can -- ukraine has slowed the advance, but at some point this catches up to ukraine, right? >> it may. it's amazing how we discount something like morale. the fighting spirit. the ukrainians have it in abundance because they're defending their homes. the russians do not. the russians, many of them by some accounts seem to not even know they're fighting in ukraine. these operations there have been massive blunders, the airborne operations, they've gone into two locations and been destroyed. aircraft carrying likely hundreds of paratroopers have been destroyed. it's a three to one ratio of infantry of the fighters to the logistics. and those are the ones being punished right now. that's why that one-third in

trail, if the ukrainians start to get after those, the russian army gets ground to a halt. but the air power and the artillery are something that's going to be very, very difficult to contend with. that's why at this point we need to press to get ukraine we don't need to be risk averse. we need to press to get ukraine the uavs they need, some of our allies are doing that, certainly the turkish military is providing those, we should be doing the same. this does not bring us closer to war. it is a false premises. we are not headed towards the bilateral confrontation. the russians understand how this is played better than we do. they have supported other proxies, whether it's korea, vietnam, grenada, supported afghanistan. as long as we don't go into a direct confrontation, we're not headed to a military crisis with russia. we should do everything we can to support ukraine, to push back

against the russian offensive. >> colonel, that's a -- a point we hadn't discussed. i'm glad you brought it up. we've been talking about closing the airspace over russia and a number of people i talked to in the military said nonstarter, not sending nato troops to confront russian troops because that would get two nuclear powers into a direct confrontation, what you're suggesting is something different and creative, i appreciate you bringing that up. lieutenant colonel vindman. the author of an important book, a quick read "here, right matters". you will understand ukraine and a lot more about what's going on if you read this book. the war in ukraine and the actions of vladimir putin are eerily similar to other events from the last 100 years including the destruction of a mas cuss in 2018, in which vladimir putin played an important role and those taken by mussolini in east africa.

coming up next we'll give you historical context and take away what we can from it. ical contexy what we can from it.

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to get into this war in ukraine, russian president, vladimir putin, has been drawing from a similar playbook used by authoritarian leaders in the past, he made multiple false claims this week alone to justify launching what he's called a special military operation that he said is intended to prevent an alleged genocide of russians and russian-speakers in ukraine. this despite the fact that there is zero evidence of any such genocide taking place in the

country. hitler used a similar tactic in 1939 as a reason to invade what was then known as czechoslovakia. he claimed millions of ethnic germans were being prosecuted. fast forward and thousands of germans were alongside the border ready to take action. and putin is praying on generations of scars from world war ii in an effort to conjure up more support back at home. he called for the, quote, demilitarization and de-nazi-fication of ukraine. however he made no mention of the fact that the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelenskyy, is jewish. the fact that nearly 3 million

jews died in nazi territories. there's a lot to unpack here. we'll discuss it in a few with ann applebaum. w with ann applebaum.

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applebaum, a historian staff writer at the atlantic, an expert on international relations, studying authoritarian for years. she's an author. i recommend reading "twilight of democracy". ann, i want to start with this de-nazification topic. because anti-semitism and bad treatment of jews and naziism and neo-naziism is a thread that has occurred through eastern

europe. it was not just a german thing, it was something exported and activated in eastern european places but that's not what's happening in ukraine right now. you cannot like the ukrainian government, you can think the ukrainian government is corrupt and it has been for a long time, perhaps less so under volodymyr zelenskyy. but this de-nazification accusation for vladimir putin is not grounded in any meaningful reality at this point. >> no. in fact, it's part of a very, very old russian tactic of reversing -- you know, reversing exactly the truth. i think putin is using it because, in fact, the ukrainians are very culturally and historically and sociologically similar to russians. these aren't countries that hated each other, i don't think most ukrainians hate most russians and vice versa. so putin needs to present them as something opposite, strange,

and he pulled this idea from soviet history that we're fighting the nazis once again. the strangest aspect of this is that ukrainian has a jewish president in the part of a world that has a history of anti-semitism is quite important and it's quite important that the fact that he's jewish is not a big deal. what that indicates is that ukraine has a kind of civic nationalism as opposed to ethnic nationalism. so it's a patriotic country where people are, where people recognize you as ukrainian if you're loyal to the idea of ukraine and it doesn't matter which language you speak. there are ukrainians who speak both ukraine and russian, or what your ethnic background is. nobody told them about civic nationalism or used that expression but that's what they are. >> you wrote on february 23rd in the atlantic, putin also perceives ukrainian nests as a

threat. ukraine's determination to become a democracy is a genuine challenge to putin's imperial political project the creation of an autocratic that he's in charge. for people who don't know volodymyr zelenskyy, there's been nonsense about the fact that ukraine is a corrupt little country, it's what a major tv news host has said. ukraine has had a history of corruption, no question. this guy is trying to change it, but it is a real country and it is actually a real functioning democracy. >> it's a real country, and in the last couple of decades, the idea of ukrainian-ness, what does it mean to be ukrainian, has been wrapped up in the idea of democracy, integration with the rest of europe, political reform and change. so the people who are the most

active and outspoken ukrainians are often the people who want change the most. and this, of course, is exactly what putin hates, because this is the kind of movement and the kind of language that he is afraid of in russia. so he doesn't have any real reason to be afraid of nato or his bombs, he doesn't have any, you know, he knows that's not a realistic threat. he is afraid of the language of democracy and the power of anticorruption rhetoric, which is what you have quite a lot of in the russian opposition and the power that might have to unseat him. he saw it happen in germany in 1989, he was then a kgb officer, he saw it happen in ukraine in 2014, when a grass roots street movement evicted a corrupt and authoritarian president. he's afraid that movement is coming for him. that's really the source of his hatred of ukraine. >> we've been depending on you a lot and we will continue to do

so. thank you for making time for us. i want to direct our viewers to something you wrote in november of 2021, it's important in which you say if the 21st century was the story of slow uneven progress toward the victory of democracies over other ideologies, the 21st century so far is is a story of the reverse. this should worry people who are fans of democracy. thank you, ann applebaum, author of the book "twilight of democracy". coming up the president made good on his word to nominate the first black woman to the supreme court. let's go behind the scenes to when president biden first informed judge ketanji brown jackson that she was his pick for the high court. watch this. >> hello? >> judge jackson? >> yes. >> this is joe biden.

how are you? >> i am wonderful. how are you, mr. president? >> you're going to be more wonderful. i'd like you to go to the supreme court. how about that? >> sir, i would be so honored. >> i'm honored to nominate you. >> i'm just so, so overwhelmed. >> well, you deserve it. overwhd overwhd >> well, you deserve it.walgreey to stay protected wherever you go. schedule your free covid-19 booster today.

before you go there, or there... start here. walgreens makes it easy to stay protected wherever you go. schedule your free covid-19 booster today. exactly two years to the day since joe biden made a campaign promise to nominate the first ever black woman to the highest court in the land, the president did exactly that. yesterday, president biden introduced judge ketanji brown jackson as his official nominee to replace the retiring stephen breyer on the supreme court. judge jackson's background paved the way for her success. we'll get to know her in a bit. she was born in washington, grew

up in miami where her mother was a school administrator and her dad was a lawyer for the miami-dade school board. one of her uncles was a police chief, another uncle was sentenced is to life in prison for drugs she was appointed to the d.c. court of appeals last year. before that, she clerked for justice breyer, worked as a public defender working for those who couldn't afford to hire an attorney. if confirmed, judge ketanji brown jackson will be the first black woman on the bench, the first justice to have worked as a public defender and the second youngest justice in the supreme court's history at the age of 51. joining me now is fatima graves. we knew this was coming, we didn't know who it would be exactly. and you and i talked about the

three candidates who we thought it would be. and you told me why they would all be good in their own stint. they were not interchangeable, they were not the same, did not have the same background but they would all meet the need of someone qualified to be an associate justice of the supreme court. >> that's right. i knew it was coming, i've known since he made the commitment on his campaign that it was coming. but i have to say that announcement yesterday hit very differently. it was emotional, even listening to the phone call you played to be a part of this moment where history is being made with the nomination of judge jackson, it is a big deal. i am lifted. >> i want to get into a little bit of her background with you. obviously one doesn't, generally speaking, get appointed to this process without getting highly qualify. so she meets the basic

qualifications, she's smart, experienced, worked in the right places. but some people have been making a point, the idea there's never been a public defender appointed to the supreme court. tell me why you think that would be relevant to her thinking and why that's an interesting consideration. >> she's -- you're right that she's so obviously extremely qualified. i'd say almost overqualified if you can say that at the supreme court, that she has held roles in almost every level and area of the law. but it does matter that she has had this particular experience representing low-income criminal defendants. it matters. now we're thinking about what a big deal it is we haven't had the perspective on the supreme court for many decades, not since justice marshall left was there someone who had similar experience. and i would add that her experience being on the sentencing commission as well

gets her great breadth and depth of understanding what it is people who are having contact with the criminal system are experiencing. >> and i think what's interesting about this is that a lot of cases come to the supreme court that are about people who maybe didn't get a good defense in the beginning, including people who have been sentenced to death row. and some sense of understanding that justice is not equal in this country, partially because some people can't afford to get an advocate on their behalf for the justice that has to be something for her when she's dealing with supreme court decisions. >> she'll have that understanding having represented people. and it is a reminder that core foundational principle in our constitution is equal access to justice. especially when having contact with the criminal system and that is not just an idea for the wealthiest few. that is for everyone.

and soon to be justice jackson will understand that, will know that. and her -- one of her things is that her reputation is that she's very pragmatic and will bring that perspective, too. so having had the real world experience. having a pragmatic view will make a difference. i think it's why she's been confirmed already three times by the senate. that's the other thing that has me excited. i think it's going to happen that we are going to see the next justice be ketanji brown jackson. >> we shall watch that together as it develops and as it happens. she will be meeting with united states senators as early as this coming week. great to see you, thank you for being with us this morning. fatima is the president of the national law center women's action fund. snake island is a small but very important island in the black sea. it was guarded by 13

extraordinarily brave ukrainians until thursday when it was attacked and taken by russia. audio reveals that a russian warship radioed and demanded the surrender of the ukrainians saying they will be bombed. instead of the ukrainians took the radio and responded back, russian warship go f yourself. just after that, they were killed. just one of the tremendous stories of ukrainians strength in defending their country. ans h ans h in defending their country (mindy) yep! (vo) okay now let's work offsite. public wi-fi? no thanks. 5g ultra wideband is faster and safer. and so powerful that it's t just for phones. hello 5g home and business internet. it's time to go ultra with verizon, america's most reliable 5g network, so you can do more!

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[copy machine printing] ♪ ♪ who would've thought printing... could lead to growing trees. ♪ what we're witnessing unfold in ukraine right now is possibly the most consequential foreign military conflict since germany invaded poland in 1939. but as vladimir putin launches a war, the world continues to turn. there are other conflicts simmering or under way that may

be given energy and oxygen without the full attention of america and other democracies on them. there are bad actors watching potentially waiting in the wings for an opportunity of their own. let's think about the countries that stand to gain, three obvious ones come to mind, iran, north korea, and china. hear why these three nations have been to, iran said it's opposed to russia's war with ukraine but hasn't denounced russia's military action. instead following putin's lead and blaming nato. iran will never condemn moscow because it needs their support in the international arena. they're partners in holding syria's president in power. since donald trump withdrew america from the 2015 nuclear deal, tehran has exceeded the limits on enriched uranium it's

allowed to stock pile. the time to fuel a nuclear weapon is estimated as only a few weeks although it's still years for the know how to deliver a bomb. for the last ten months the u.s. and other powers have been locked in nuclear negotiations with iran attempting to revive the 2015 deal. the talks have reached a sensitive point and an agreement is expected soon but any disruption in the region could tank it all. if you've been tempted to forget about nuclear-powered north korea, think again. north korea has been more provocative in the last two months than it has in the years. kim jong-un has launched at least 7 missile tests since the year began. in january they launched an intermediate ballistic missile, the boldest test since 2017.

they claim the missile is capable of reaching the u.s. territory in guam. and the strongest parallel to ukraine, the one with arguably the biggest implications is the conflict between china and taiwan. the people's ownership over the self-governing island of taiwan. president xi jinping wants to reunify taiwan which it considers a chinese province with mainland china and has not ruled out doing so by force. over the last two years and more so in recent months china has stepped up its military activity in and around taiwan causing global concern about a full-blown invasion. sound familiar? it should because china's xi jinping and russia's vladimir putin are calling different plays from the same playbook and now that putin has pulled the trigger on his own invasion of ukraine, he's launching his own response. the situation between russia,

ukraine, china and taiwan, they're not exactly the same, their outcomes will be different and xi jinping is monitoring the situation and weighing the risk versus reward of launching an assault in taiwan. there is a shift happening in the world. in, once the keeper of world order is jostling for control. china and russia are changing the rules. let's not forget that xi and putin made just last month, a so-called no-limits partnership to collaborate against the west and promised to back each other when it comes to the standoffs in ukraine and taiwan. for 30 years the west has grown comfortable with the global rule book in which some combination of the g7, the united nations and nato maintain relative stability, but right now those who are looking for a new world order are sensing an opportunity. e sensing an opportunity.

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joining me now in bremer, president and founder of the eurasia group, author of "us versus them" the failure of globalism and other important books. ian, good morning to you. i needed to talk to you about the fact that the global order that we believe in, and it's ebbed and flowed over the years is held in place by certain international organizations. we've got the united nations. we've got the g7. we've got nato and then we've got smaller groups, but they're trade organizations.

the european union trade agreements that we've got and it's all for better or for worse held things together and now we have something going on in eastern ukraine that feels very 190s, 1940s, 20th century invasion land grab stuff. why is that? why are the things that we've set up to prevent this from happening not preventing this from happening? >> well, the broad answer to that and good morning to you, ali is that when we set up international institutions they relate to the global balance of power as it exists at the time. so after world war ii the united states is the big country left standing. the u.s. creates these institutions with their allies. why can germany and japan not be permanent veto members of the security council? they're so committed to multilateralism and the rule of law and the reason, ali, is because they lost world war ii. it is the reason. the balance of power changes

over time, but the institutions don't. they're sticky and as a consequence when you get the rise of china in a massive way and they're not a lined with the united states and the old global trade order that made sense when the americans had all of the power suddenly starts to erode. that is true in terms of security orders, as well and when americans don't want to be the global policemen it's not like what we're seeing in ukraine is so new. certainly when we said assad must go and he's still there feels very similar. it's not like the chinese and russian are coming in to do anything, that's basically a failed state, haiti, myanmar, venezuela, there are lot was places that's happened. there aren't a lot of places when the people are european. 44 million ukrainians suddenly under the gun from russia that feels radically different for a bunch of europeans who thought that they didn't have to worry about fundamental threats to their security after the soviet

union collapsed. >> so russia and putin said some outrageous things this week and do some outrageous things and they declared these two regions of someone else's country independent and not entirely different from what happened in crimea in 2014, but they did it and they would like the support of people who are typically in their camp. belarus is called a union state with russia. they are joined. not only is belarus a pro-russian country and so does kazakhstan. they didn't send troops to this ukrainian effort. china abstained from a vote at the united nations the other day. so what does this all mean in vladimir putin may not have a lot of friends right now, but he had a few and they were important. >> hungary also, victor orbonn

said they would support a ban from russia from s.w.i.f.t. and it was shocking from him who was the closest friend to putin in the european union. kazakhstan condemned the crisis. russia requested the kazakhs participate in the invasion and this was after they sent 3,000 troopers to repress their own internal dissent, the kazakh said no mas and china is the big question and geopolitically china will be uncomfortable overtly criticizing russia, and i don't think you would see them condemning irrespective of how many innocents are killed, but the fact that they decided last night to abstain in the united nations security council as did india, as did the uae as opposed to voting with the russians, only three weeks after putin and xi jinping stood together in

beijing in the beginning of the olympics and announced a long-term strategic partnership that would include massive chinese investment into russian gas it feels like the chinese are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a new cold war, that the russians are launching, but the chinese don't want to be a part of it. >> ian bremer, your analysis always makes us smarter. ian bremer is the president and founder of the eurasia group, a global consultancy and the author of "us versus them." don't go away. another hour of "velshi" begins right now. good morning. it is saturday, february the 26th. it is 9:00 a.m. eastern time, 4:00 p.m. in kyiv. i'm ali velshi. it's been roughly two and a half days since ukraine was invaded by russian armed forces and we are receiving reports this morning that fighting between the two sides has begun in the streets of kyiv,