critical. >> we have 50 republicans. the way forward is clear. >> democrats are the are you laser focused rchltsd american people are fed up with this one-party rule. >> we are fully intent to win this election. >> what are republicans for? >> we have to keep control of the house and senate. and good evening and welcome to our very first msnbc "decision 2022" special. may seem early in the year for this but less than 48 hours from now, tuesday nye night, president biden standing in front of congress delivering his state of the union speech, and while he is giving that speech, they're going to be counting up votes in texas, where the very first primary of the 2022 midterm cycle is being held, and texas is just the first in a series of big consequential

primaries that will play out in state after state over the next few months. all of it setting the stage for this fall's midterm elections. now, as we all know, the president enters this crucial week with the ukraine crisis front and center, and we should say at the top here right all of you and so much of the world right now we, of course, are closely watching the situation and ready to bring you any major updates that might occur on the ukraine front at this hour. and other issues loom as well as crucial potentially midterm campaign issues beginning to take shape like a fight over joe biden's new nominee for the supreme court just announced the other day and, of course, as always, the economy. democrats pointing to strong gdp growth, but inflation threatening to undermine that message, and the build back better plan that biden touts as key to shoring up the economy remains stalled in congress. there's also the evolving covid

pandemic. it will undoubtedly shape the political climate as this year unfolds as well. republicans, meanwhile, well aware of the history that's at work here. midterm elections, they tend to smile on the opposition party. not always, but usually. what about the lingering and polarizing presence of former president donald trump? he just hinted again this weekend that he's eyeing another run in 2024, and polls show that his appeal to republican voters remains strong and deep. we're going to get into all of that tonight starting in just a minute with our all-star panel, but first start by firing up the big board and a closer look at the political terrain at work here. as we just said, midterm elections tend to be rough for whoever has the white house, except right after 9/11, first-term presidents going back nearly a century have always lost seats in them. >> and i accept my share of the

responsibility. >> if you look at race by race, it was close. the accumulative effect not too close. a thumping. >> i'm not recommending for every future president they take a shellacking like i did last night. >> they did very poorly. i'm not sure i should be happy or sad but i feel just fine about it. >> all right. here we go. giving this board plenty of the work -- well 48 hours in texas, but over the next five months. you see the balance 6 power in the house. democrats have majority. that majority for democrats was unexpectedly narrowed in the 2020 election. even as joe biden won the presidency, republicans picked up house seats. they are within ten. within single digits getting control of the house. again, given that history, republicans very bullish on chances of doing that. then there's the senate. couldn't be more closely

divided. it's 50 for democrat, 50 for republicans. of course, kamala harris as the vice president who right now breaks those ties in favor of the democrats. but, again, republicans just given history we're talking about bullish on chances of getting majority back in the senate. could be a little more complicated on that front, though. one of the things we'll dig into here in the next hour. so let's look at joe biden, his political standing, as he steps before congress to deliver the state of the union address on tuesday. right now if you average all the polls out there together, the president's approval rating sits at 41.7%. that's the average from all different polls out there. compare that to where his recent predecessors were at this same point in their presidencies. here's that list here. one thing jumps out right away. that biden number is basically identical to what the trump number was at this same point. start of donald trump's midterm year, that was his average

approving rating. barack obama in 2010, a tick higher. high 40s at this point. although that number was heading south. the one exception on this list, modern exception, george w. bush, still nearly 80%. remember, just months after 9/11 at this point in the brush presidency and you see bill clinton actually at about 50% at this point heading into 1994, but, again, this is that history. look what happened to trump. you don't have to go too far back but trump and republicans lost. picked up two senate seats maybe democrats have their eye looking towards this november. again, lost the house, republicans did, under trump. democrats in barack obama's first midterm. lost 63 house seats. they lost the house. a massacre on the senate side. could have been worse on the senate side. democrats actually picked a few breaks believe it or not in

2010. disastrous numbers politically. obviously. democrats lost house in '94. when we say president's party is up against -- george w. bush, effective 9/11 had his numbers so high so long enough his party picked up a couple seats in midterms back in 2002. where have the numbers been going wrong for joe biden? to bring him to that 41% approval rating? a couple things jump out here. talk about the economy. here's the trajectory. for nbc, asking this question throughout biden's presidency. do you approve or disapprove of how the president's handling the economy? this is where he started. a small majority back in the spring of 2021 said approved. you could see how numbers started to go backwards for him throughout the last year. inflation has become a major issue in reason months. here's the latest number.

the president now under 40% approval on handling of the economy. the other big issue and more dramatic drop for biden about to show you here. covid. the pandemic. when he came to office, this was where he got his strongest marks as president. about a year ago nearly 70% of voters approved of how biden was handling the pandemic. again, the numbers continue to slip. he was still in positive territory just a few months ago. no longer. our latest numbers have a majority disapproving of how the president's handling the pandemic. only 44% approving of it. interestingly, too, speaking of the pandemic. with the omicron variant, with the treatments, with vaccines, an interesting bit of a shift picked up on pap morning consulate pill out last week have been asking folks as you think about the pandemic, are you more concerned with the effect it's having on public health in this country, or the effect it's having on the economy? consistently for the last two years, it's been public health

that people have said has been their primary concern. just within the last week, this council poll found the numbers began to change. interesting. 50% now say it's the effect of the pandemic on the economy that worries them more than the public health effect. that's potentially an interesting development in terms how the public is thinking about covid going forward. and by the way, again, the ukraine crisis, front and center. obviously a very volatile situation. don't know how it will turn out but have one poll that did come out today. abc "washington post" poll. first one seen asking in the last couple of days, how do folks feel how biden is handling it? 33% approve. 47% disapprove. others with no opinion. more numbers on this front to come out next few days. that's the political climate. 48 hours before the president delivers his state of the union start of the midterm year. break down what the stakes are,

what each party can do to maximize chances here. joining me now, david plouffe, former president barack obama's 2008 campaign manager. rich lowry, editor-in-chief of "national review" and jessica taylor from the "cook report." appreciate you all being with me. and david, start with you. apologize bringing back unpleasant memories but going through the history. your former boss, barack obama, one of those presidents who had a very difficult midterm in 2010. we've showed 63 seat loss for democrats in barack obama first midterm. curious. somebody as involved as you were in the obama operation, when you look back a decade later, look back at that midterm campaign, are there lessons you feel you learned from it? something you feel could you have done, should have done, that might have materially affected the result, or do you

take a view that there's only so much that can be done from a white house to prevent the kinds of losses we're showing here? >> well, it's a great question, steve. i think generally macro forces more important than questions of messaging or tactics. i remind you back in 2010, you remember, democrats had monster elections in '06 and '08. won everything they could win. were owning a lot of hostile turf. probably going to give back in a neutral political market, but 2010 was not. still in the teeth of a recession. other thing i point out. you showed george w. bush in 2002. the other midterm exception was 1998. in 1998 republicans paid a price for overreaching on impeachment as voters saw it against bill clinton. 2002, republicans did a very good job weaponizing national security and homeland security. if your the democrats what you need to do -- there's not an

unofficially high water mark. lost house seats. steve, as you know in the last election, i think the senate this time advantageous to them compared to what they're facing within '24. you have to put the other party on trial and turn republicans basically in a choice too risky. clearly, people look for change. last thing i'll say, those macro forces, the recession would are awful in 2010 no matter what happened. take a long time to dig out of financial -- covid a an democratic. rightly pointed out a lot of people more related to covid as relates to the economy. i think as that recedes you might see some boosting on the economy, and with ukraine, it's far too early to know, but the other price biden is paying is things just seem a little out of control. two years into the pandemic and still dealing with it. inflation. now putin up to hit antics.

the big thing, not change this with an ad or with new language. you've got to have the macro situation get better and then i think the thing you can do is make sure this is seen as a choice and not a referendum. >> and rich lowry, pick up on that with you. david plouffe saying try to make this in voters' minds as much as the republican opposition as midterms tend to be about the white house party and about the president. where do you think republicans are weakest politically when it comes to taking advantage of what history says should be a very favorable climate? where are they vulnerable falling short of historical expectations? where it good go wrong for them. >> a couple of things. hard to see how they get the seats in 2018 because republicans already made gains, as pointed out in 2020.

gerrymandering in blue states will limit republican gains. just -- there's not much you can do when you have a reputable media poll out the other day, "washington post," abc, that had incumbent president's approving rating at 37%. no ad, in clever trick will get around that. i just think it's hard to make republicans seem threatening when they're not going to control all of washington. they're going to take the house almost certainly and perhaps the senate as well. and still a democratic president. so just -- when you have been around a while steve all seems same. a natural rhythm with few exceptions. especially the first midterm election. seems unavoidable that's what democrats are headed for in november. >> jessica taylor, the numbers on the board. i mentioned maybe the senate's a little more complicated than the house. of course, every house seat up.

every midterm election, it's only one-third of the senate and obviously you specialize in looking at the senate battleground. talk to us, if you would, a little bit about that, because i know when you talk to democrats you get more optimism from them when you start talking about the senate than the house. take us through a little what the battlefield looks like there and why democrats may feel more optimistic or more pessimistic when the senate comes up? >> more republican seats up. 20-14, soon to be 15, given there is another oklahoma senate race with senator inhofe stepping down. it's not as lopsided as in 2018 favoring republicans. ultimately chip away the battleground states, roughly even, though. you have for democratic incumbents, three that, in states biden won by less than three points. less than a point in both

georgia and arizona. in nevada, new hampshire possibly. depending upon the type of candidate republicans are able to field. and then the republican is thdefending open seats in ohio, in pennsylvania, in north carolina. and then the most endangered republican incumbent is ron johnson, the only person, only incumbent running in a state the opposite presidential party won in 2020. but the thing we drill down, you showed where biden's numbers were nationally in his approval rating, and in these swing states they're worse. i've seen numbers in the 30s, in north carolina. and georgia. and -- i think it comes down to the climate versus the candidates. because the biggest mine field republicans have right now is that they can nominate very polarizing candidates in places like arizona, missouri, ohio, pennsylvania. and they could give up, you know -- really great opportunities there, but in a

way, what is feeling certainly like a wave election, those candidates problems may not matter. i think it become as referendum on president biden right now in the larger democratic party. tuesday is a chance for a reset but supposed to cater towards domestic agenda, talking about the economy, infrastructure bill and reset really a slide happening since august and seen his numbers getting worse and worse. now you have ukraine. not certain how that's going to affect things, but what we are seeing consistently in polling i think for the average voter is the economy that is affecting them most. even if you see higher gdp numbers, if you're experiencing shortages at the grocery store, paying more when checking out. paying more for gas. those are are things you see.

>> and covid end of it. numbers are striking. biden's approval rating on handling of the pandemic down 25 points in our polling basically over the last year. all sorts of theories about exactly what the source of that is. obviously the fact we've still been dealing with the coronavirus, clearly chief among them, but you mention the idea here of transitioning potentially more to an endemic phase of this. politically, what do you think that entails the white house doing? the kinds of messages the president should be sending's maybe in this speech tuesday night. i saw the house announced waiving the mask requirement. that rule just changed in the house. new messages that the white house you anticipate will send or should be sending on how americans should be thinking about and trying to live with covid? >> well, steve, i respect the way the biden without dealt with this meaning let public health officials drive the messages

decisions here. but what you're seeing all across the country, blue states, red states, is governors local officials are basically saying, it's time to live with covid. that doesn't mean we are lackadaisical. still a lot of people should have boosters that aren't. anti-virals and other medical treatments that are incredibly promising if people do get covid in a serious way, but i think things like masks, even in schools. a lot of the country, this isn't the question. media capitals of the world still a lot of people wearing masks in schools. we have to live with it and move on. that will be i think a sense of relief for people because i think biggest thing hurting biden's number about a pandemic less what he's done and more the science elected. did a good job in the beginning people in polls suggest, but still living with it. on the economy, though that will help. people feel hope. people do not vote on economics statistics. they just don't. the stock market, the

unemployment rate even gdp, very personal question. now, i think most americans feel secure in the job they have. the question is, is their paycheck going further? half the people in country doesn't matter what year it is. liven paycheck positive paycheck. economic volatility. inflation definitely caused questions there. i think the macro has to change. what that means is, the pandemic is now in the rearview mirror. doesn't mean people still aren't getting sick and dieing, sadly, but we're living with it. inflation begins to recede. big if, and foreign policy situation. biden will have a great leadership moment if that's the case. so that's what has to happen. i think, but you have to understand if you're the white house, you know, the pandemic and how states are dealing with it has changed a lot in the last three, four weeks. you have to be, when talking to the american people, got to meet them where they are's in a lot

of the country, they've moved beyond masks a long time ago. even in some blue states in the last couple weeks. center it with people are today, more than anything, got to give people hope. and thank people. thank citizens, thank doctors. thank nurses. sanitation and grocery workers who let us basically beat this. so i think there has to be a sense of optimism more than anything else. even with all the dark clouds in ukraine and with inflation. i think that needs to be a big moment. and i think he needs to lead us out of the pandemic and this is an opportunity to do so starting tuesday night. >> something which i'm curious, when you look ahead towards the fall here, could you see a potential almost psychological shift in this country if, you know, god willing, we don't get worse variants. we get better treatments, this thing becomes more and more manageable? the pandemic. could you see a psychological

shift that would change the mood of the country in a way that, you know, look. better the mood of country, the better the incumbent in the white house is doing? is that a variable you think is on the table here? >> yeah. quite possibly, but this is one thing, steve, i don't understand. the blue state governors, a week or two ago, lifted the, organ to lift these mandates on kids wearing masks in schools. clearly coordinated. in response to polling. felt this mood building that david was describing where people are just sick of these pandemic measures. i don't understand why the administration didn't get out in front of that, you know? to lead on that, and to be the pointy head of the spear in a new approach. instead lagging's in terms of inflation, that's the biggest drag on this presidency, and on perceptions how he's handled the economy. there are limits what he can do about it, but i think there hasn't been enough focus on it

and one of the wraps on this presidency, that this president hasn't seemed focus on what people care about most. even if no magic wand to wave on inflation, just every week having a big inflation event, making sure this is something you care and and grappling with and instead wanted to pass a legislative agenda even with individual particular policies poll well, no one in the country is particularly hungry for. >> all right. rich lowry, david plouffe, jessica taylor, thanks for helping us kick off a conversation we'll continue over the next few months. appreciate your time being here tonight. coming up, our special look at president biden's challenge in the state of the union and the one phrase that just about all presidents have to say in these speeches. and we were just talking about the political headwinds, of course, democrats are facing this fall, but could they get a political assist from a man they unseated two years ago? look at the trump factor, how it

could affect key republican primaries a what that might mean for november. plus, how it could all be shaped by the ukraine crisis. are you are watching msnbc's "decision 2022" special. "decision 2022" special. certified from headlamp to tailpipe. that's certified head turns. and it's all backed by our unlimited mileage warranty. that means unlimited peace of mind.edes ofs is closer than you think. if you have type 2 diabetes or high blood pressure you're a target for chronic kidney disease. you can already have it and not know it. if you have chronic kidney disease your kidney health could depend on what you do today.

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we all know life can knock us down, but in america, we never, ever, ever stay down. americans always get up. today that's what we're doing. america's rising anew. choosing hope over fear. truth over lies and light over darkness. that was president biden last year. now by tradition that first formal address to congress from a new president is not technically considered a state of the union address. so this tuesday is actually going to be biden's first and also going to be his chance to

frame the terms under which this midterm campaign will be contested. now, biden will be addressing the nation, of course, amidst war in ukraine and just days after his first supreme court nomination. also expected to address the economy and inflation. now, there is a kind of a formula for any of these state of the union speeches. rattle off a few, successes, call for new proposes, trying to set an optimistic tone for the future. bill clinton gave the two longest speeches followed by donald trump. you see the time there's. richard nixon, jimmy carter, gave shortest speeches. over the years through all of these a certain phrase is almost always uttered. >> the state of the union is strong. >> the state of our union is confident and strong. >> the state of our union is strong. because our people are strong. >> my fellow americans, the state of our union is strong.

>> the state of the union will remain sound and strong. >> the state of our union is stronger than a year ago and growing stronger each day. >> the state of our union is sound. >> i must say to you that the state of the union is not good. >> that one discord note, gerald ford a few months after watergate put him into office. joining me, katherine lucy, reporter for the "wall street journal." thank you for taking time to join us here. let me first ask you, how much has the planning for this very important speech, again, this is the chance for the white house to sort of set its terms for the 2022 midterms. how much has the planning for this speech been changed by everything that's happened in the last few days in ukraine? how much of a different speech are we going to get on tuesday than the white house initially set out to provide to the

country? >> this is one of the big marquee moments, right? and steve, the white house saw it as a moment to talk about some of the president's achievements and also address issues like inflation, how things are doing in the pandemic, infrastructure and as well as the supreme court nomination, but obviously as president you also have to play the hand that you are dealt. right? and this speech is now happening as more plays out in europe, and the president has been, we know, consulting with his speech writers, working on the speech. talking to policy advisers as this unfolds. this crisis unfolds in ukraine, and we know from the white house that they plan to address it head-on. the press secretary jen psaki said earlier today on abc that the president will talk about efforts to build a global -- and heard before from his presidency

a moment to defend democracies against autocracies and importance of that. those themes are definitely going to be a part of this in a way probably not predicted a month or six weeks ago, also very much going to hear some of these key domestic themes as well. how they feel they are doing currently with the pandemic. efforts to put the pandemic in their rearview mirror and also particularly inflation and how americans are dealing with rising prices. you've heard the president really trying to address inflation, also in the context of the conflict in ukraine. he's talked a lot about gas prices. concerns how people are feeling about the prices at the pump and how he is really trying to do everything he can to mitigate those expenses for americans. >> yeah. you mention the pandemic. again news in the last few hours. the rule in the house of representatives requiring mask wearing. apparently it's now lifted. you see 48 hours later, we'll

all be watching inside the house chamber as he gets to a broader question here about, you know, a shift to what degree is there a shift right now in how the president and how this administration wants to be communicating about covid? what it wants to be telling americans? are we looking at the start of a significant shift here? that gets into saying, hey, that this is something to be viewed as endemic. something to be viewed as, you know, take more steps to go back to kind of how life was before? how aggressive are they going to be in that shift? what's your sense there? >> i think we're going to see them really try and talk how the country is in a different place than we were a year ago. on the pandemic. that, you know, the number of americans vaccinated, where numbers are now. the fact there are treatments. the fact we have tools to deal with this, and i think you're also seeing this -- this speech

come and as you said, visually a different moment. you'll see him address chamber, masks not required, and comes as you see governors and leaders in blue and red states around the country start rolling back mask mandates, and some of the other rules as americans really clamor in lots of places for a return to a pre-covid life, 0 are a more normal life, if you will. so i think you will hear the president talk about, you know, how the country is feeling today on this, and what they are trying to do today on this, but also going to hear him talk about, i think, the white house has been very careful to adhere to what the cdc is saying. what medical experts are saying and seen an easing there as well. i think you will see them try to hit that tone of things are moving in the different direction. >> kathy lucy from the "wall street journal." thank you for joining us. as we said, still to come, biden giving that state of the

union address tuesday night and at the same time the results from the first primary of 2022. they are going to be coming in. i'm going to be over at the board showing you the results from the texas primary. still to come, we are going to break all of that down. stay with us. our coverage of the midterm pregames continues. continues. including nasal congestion, so you can breathe better. claritin-d. breathe better. (vo) ultra meets ultra for business. the new samsung galaxy s22 ultra meets verizon 5g ultra wideband. ultra-collaborative. ultra-secure. when you buy one, get up to $1,000 on another. verizon is going ultra, so your business can too.

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donald trump will frequently play up what he sees as his influence in the republican primaries across the country, and we may see our first test of that influence -- excuse me -- on tuesday in texas. now, there are a few republican members of congress from that state who are facing at least the potential to encounter some maga headwinds tuesday. want to overstate these but they're worth looking at at least potentially. don't want to.

congressman dan crenshaw biden legitimately won the 20220 election and worried about grifters in the republican party and delittled marjorie taylor greene. chip roy voted to certify trump the defeat and other congressmen facing a primary tuesday. van taylor from north texas. tony gonzalez from the 23rd district the only two republicans from the texas delegation who vote and an independent commission to investigate the january 6th riot. playing close attention. any sign of the blowback for any of that for them. meanwhile all candidates for attorney general in texas trying to showcase maga credentials including george p. bush. of course, son of the man trump famously attacked as low energy jeb back during the 2016 primaries. the george p. bush campaign

handing out beer cosis praising him saying this is the only bush that likes me. the bush that got it right. i like him. biggest test of trump's influence comes much later in the primary season most notably in wyoming where liz cheney is facing for her political life and trying to oust georgia politician whose did not go along with his attempt to overturn the election including the sitting governor of georgia. up next, back to the board and break down a key demographic both parties are trying to win over, and caused a big surprise in the 202020 election. we'll get to that right after this. l get to that right after this.

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all right. as we said, 48 hours from now counting up votes in the texas primary. how texas finished up in the 2020 election. of course, donald trump carried the state. democrats talking for years about. could they ultimately flip texas? think it's getting bluer and bluer. trump able to carry it by a somewhat healthy margin in 2020, had to do with hispanic voters. one of the big surprises in 2020 in texas. saw it nationally too. talked a lot about the gains democrats have made in metro areas in texas places like the dallas-ft. worth area, austin area, houston area. a lot of college-educated

professionals and white college educated professionals moved democratic in their voting. one place that offset that, though in 2020 was south texas. especially areas right around the border. in some cases counties with overwhelmingly hispanic populations. a little taste here. stark county. not big, look at the swing. right on the border there. deep south texas. hillary clinton won this county over 60 points in 2016. donald trump nearly won the count any 2020. next door city of mccowan, bigger county. look, biden still won hidalgo by 17 points. 40 in 2016. massive move innocent in heavily hispanic counties especially in texas, but not just south texas where we saw it in 2020. look nationally. pew research did a review after the election breaking down how

different voesing groups changes between 2016 and 2020. look at the shift found among hispanic voters. democrats went from winning hispanic voters by 38 in '16. cut nearly in half to just 21 points in 2020. again, i say it wasn't just texas. here's the democratic performance data from here, democratic data firm looked by their estimates here how much support the democrats lost between '16 and '20. saw double digits in florida among hispanic voters, double digit florida, texas, wisconsin. see the list here. not limited to texas. not just limited to south florida. more of a national story here and one with huge potential implications for the midterms and for the future. hispanic vote is growing, and if it's shifting politically, that could have big repercussions for both political parties. joining me to talk about this more, from the center for american progress, got a lot of recent attention with an article he wrote called "the democrats

hispanic voter problem. it's not as bad as you think. it's worse." and former republican congressman from florida, and thank you both for being with you. your most recent article. democrats have a really big problem here. what's the cliff notes version? the cause of the problem you say democrats have. >> democrats relying quite a while, non-white vote gets larger, since they carry it by so much, remains stable, should benefit quite a bit from the growth of the non-white vote. driving the non-white vote? hispanics. growth of the hispanic population is really the crucial driver of that increase, but what happens if that hispanic vote doesn't say stable? moves against democrats? what if it starts giving

republicans a larger share of the vote? that cancels out this big dividend, this benefit. democrats thought they would get from the growth of the non-white population and exactly what we saw in 2020. where basically the estimates are about a 16-point marginship between, against the democrats nationwide. means as you pointed out, it wasn't just in texas. wasn't just in florida. it was in philadelphia, in new york city. it was in everywhere around the country where there are hispanic communities, we saw very significant shifts against the democrats as mong this population. why would that be? well, i think democrats were being a little bit complacent about, you know, this population totally being in their corner. i think part of the reason for that is they were thinking of them, well, they're people of color. we just had this racial reckoning. of course they're not going to vote for donald trump. republicans think they're a bunch of racists.

who could possibly vote for them? i think not correct. hispanics are upwardly noble, working class population. culturally quite moderate and democrats assumed that they would respond to exactly the sa appealed to the more liberal part of their political coalition. i don't think that was the case. i think a lot of hispanics had worries about when is the economy going to open up again? they didn't feel they did badly under trump. they were worried about the rhetoric they saw out of the democratic party. in tend, a lot of these moderate voters didn't find much difficulty in voting for donald trump. at least less so than in 2016. we have seen this trend continue in the 2020 election. all the data i've seen, democrats are doing worse among hispanics, particularly the working class hispanics where i looked at data that showed a

38-point shift against biden in terms of his net approval since the beginning of his term, among working class hispanics, which is about 80% of the hispanic population. so you put all that together, i think it's a big fat, you know, immense, you know, question mark on what is going to happen with the hispanic vote and the democrats. if i were them, i would be quite worried. i think that is something they're worried about. at this point, the signs are not good. >> carlos cabrera, let me talk about the area you used to represent in congress, part of miami-dade county was in your district. this is one of those places, south florida here, clinton won it by almost 30 points, biden wins miami-dade by just seven points. i know the congressional district you used to represent seemed very anti-trump swung over in 2020 and voted for trump and elected a republican congressman. what happened? what caused that change in just four years time?

>> well, steve, i agree that democrats have in many ways been out of step with the hispanic community. take covid policies. democrats were associated, maybe some still are, with school closures. i mean, i went to school as a kindergartener, really not knowing how to speak english, so those early years were important to me. a lot of those young latino kids lost two years because the schools were closed. parents were very nervous about their children not being able to catch up and succeed later in life. the other is lockdowns. you go to a lot of restaurants in america and you'll hear the staff speaking spanish. these are people that need these jobs, they need tips, they need restaurants to be open. they need downtowns and city centers to be fully functioning again. and democrats have been associated with the lockdowns that have held a lot of these people back. so something that joe biden can

do in the state of the union address is really urge the country to fully reopen. urge american companies to bring back their workers to office buildings, because a lot of hispanics depend on that activity for their livelihood, and democrats are carrying the burden for locking down and closing schools. the other issue is cultural. a lot of democrats approach all latinos on the immigration issue first. well, that's not the top priority for a lot of latinos. you have people in the democratic party insisting on calling hispanics and latinos latin x. turns out only 3% of hispanics can relate or know what that term is. so democrats are meeting latinos where white, progressive democrats think the community should be, and i think that miscommunication there is really hurting democrats and helping republicans. republicans have been very

opportunistic about appealing to latino voters. >> again, there is so much. i feel this is a confidence we just got started tonight. i appreciate, though, you both joining us. getting this information out there, because like i said, i think this data points to the biggest single question about 2022 and beyond, that shift in the hispanic vote we saw in 2020, is it the start of a longer term trend or is it going to prove to be an anomaly? huge consequences for the answer to that. thank you both. hope to talk to you again soon. we'll be right back. n soon we'll be right back. ll prescrip? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. allergies with nasal congestion overwhelming you? breathe more freely with powerful claritin-d. get fast relief of your worst allergy symptoms

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thank you for watching our msnbc decision '22 special. again, this tuesday is going to be a big night in politics, with the first midterm primaries in texas and joe biden's state of the union address. you can tune in starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern for our special coverage. rachel maddow is going to be back along with nicolle wallace and joy reid, and i'm going to be tracking everyone coming in from all 254 counties in texas over at the big board. so tune in, please. but first, for now, msnbc's coverage of the cisis in ukraine will continue. we'll be live right after this short break. 'll be live righafts

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good evening, everyone. you're watching msnbc's continuing coverage of the crisis in ukraine, as the russian invasion enters its fifth day. president vladamir putin is raising the stakes again, ordering his country's nuclear forces to be put on