if it's thursday, a key ukrainian city falls, the russian siege intensifies. zelenskyy speaks out, a massive humanitarian crisis unfolding and officials warn we have yet to see the worst of this. plus, the white house prepares to announce new sanctions against members of putin's inner circle as it seeks $10 billion in emergency aid from congress to help ukraine. the chairman of the senate foreign relations committee joins me ahead. in a new legal filing, the january 6th committee says it has evidence to recommend criminal charges for former president trump as it seeks access to key documents. how will this play out? we'll discuss that as well. welcome to "meet the press daily." i'm chuck todd.

one week into this war in ukraine and russia is gaining territory, lives are being lost, and more than a million people are seeking safety outside of ukraine's borders. u.s. and european officials warn we haven't seen the worst. kherson has become the first city to fall. russian troops have captured the city. russia controls much of eastern ukraine as its military regroups in an effort to try and seize the capital of kyiv. up north, senior pentagon official tells nbc news that a russian convey has not made any dramatic advances and remains about 25 kilometers outside kyiv. residents in the city, though, continue to prepare for an attack building tank blockers like this one. as russian forces attract ukrainian cities by air, firing more than 480 missiles in the last week according to a senior defense department official. russia and ukraine are holding a second round of peace talks today but honestly, neither side expects much progress to be made in it. and this was the scene in kyiv

earlier today with president zelenskyy holding a news conference, including answering a question from our own richard engel. >> you just mentioned that you want to talk to vladimir putin. vladimir putin has so far not been willing to meet with you. do you have a message for him now that ukrainian cities are under attack, this city is under attack, a convoy is on its way here? is there a way to prevent this war from escalating even further now? >> it's not about i want to talk with putin. i think i have to talk with putin. the world has to talk with putin because there are no amount of ways to stp this war. >> despite stronger than expected resistance from ukrainian forces and voluntary ukrainian militias, u.s. and european officials fear the darkest stages of this invasion lie ahead. the violence level will go up, the numbers of refugees will go up, the number of civilian

casualties and dead will go up. the u.n. says more than a million ukrainians have fled the country in just the last seven days, and that number could go up significantly as this conflict escalates. joining me is mike memoli from the white house, richard engel in kyiv, clint watts, a research fellow at the foreign policy research institute, nbc contribute or the, at our big board today in new york. he will explain what's going on with the russian troop movements. and kelly cobiella is in poland. let's start with mike at the white house. i want to start simply with what's next? a lot of senators are asking for a full embargo on russian oil. that seems to be the next most significant thing we could do. the white house has been hesitant on this. where are they today? >> reporter: chuck, yesterday you were asking me why we didn't see president biden make a more fulsome rewrite of his state of the union address to focus on the situation in ukraine, and we're getting more insight into the answer as he did not in the form of that reporting you were

referencing from our colleagues, carol lee, courtney kube, about the dire assessments coming from the u.s. but from western intelligence officials about what we see coming potentially in the days ahead in ukraine, the fact that despite the value, despite the real heroic efforts on the part of ukraine's military, the civilian population to -- the russian invasion and ultimately there is the assessments that the ukraine government will fall and it will fave way for a civilian-led resistance, an urgency in the days ahead. that poses questions to the biden administration on what more they can do. they're reporting there will likely be more sanctions levied today on putin's inner circle and the oligarchs around him, but the real question is about oil imports. this is where the domestic agenda impedes the response. throughout the position of various forms of sanctions, they've been clear about wanting

to mitigate the harm to americans at home and their own pocketbooks. what we're hearing from the administration is they are considering forms of sanctions and forms of blockade on russian energy sector but not necessarily on daily oil sales because the concern there is it would drive price of oil even higher and allow russia to profit more from the seams of whenever they can find a market for it. instead, they're looking at things like further export controls on materials that would allow russia to further expand their drilling, their oil exploration capacity. but as we saw from speaker pelosi here today in washington endorsing the idea of a full blockade of oil and russian energy imports, when you hear that from pelosi, very mindful of domestic politics, that's a very interesting signal and prance puts more pressure on the biden administration to move forward. >> congress seems to be accelerating this. the president met virtually today with the quad, a sort of unofficial group of asian pacific allies -- japan,

australia, india, the united states. no notably, india has its own relationship with russia, has not voted with most of the world to condemn what russia did. any insight on that meeting and how it went? >> reporter: we got a readout from the white house on that meeting, a typical response about the indo-pacific region and countering china's influence. which was notable is there was a reference to a meeting of these quad leaders in tokyo in the coming months. we expect the president to travel to toke yes late they are year. but the pressure there, the reason this was convened, we've seen president biden focused on doing everything in unanimity with our western allies, the european union, with nato, but india a clear stand out here. we'll be reporting more of whether we see india in to moving to join the op stoigs what russia is doing. >> richard engel in kyiv.

we obviously saw your exchange with president zelenskyy. he is trying to be out there service possible. his presence has moved the europeans to do more in the last week than they were prepare dodd just a week ago. i assume he's still hopeful that somehow a no-fly zone could be invoked and secured by nato. that seems to be a too far of a bridge. what else is he asking for? >> reporter: several asks. one, yes, he is being more visible than he used to be before the war began. he gives two or three video statements a day. he gathered reporters and spoke with us at length, over an hour in a government compound, and he seemed calm, cool, relaxed, a

little tired, but his main ask was for the no-fly zone. i don't know if he's hopeful it will happen, but he repeated that he needed it, and he said if the world series recognizes the threat and recognizes that there is a threat that putin won't stop at ukraine, then countries need to take action, that they can't just talk about the threat, they need to help ukraine stop the threat. he also needs more weapons. there are supply issues. he said that they need as many weapons as they can get, real weapons, and his main asks were help them fight, help them fight with the no-fly zone, and help them fight with weapons. and, of course, as was mentioned in the exchange, he wants a dialogue with vladimir putin, which is something that vladimir putin has so far not been interested in doing, and based on the conversation that putin had with the french president macron today and the statements that putin gave on russian television, he is not backing

down from this fight by any means. he still is determined to continue to carry out his objective of overthrowing the government, specifically overthrowing zelenskyy. >> richard, is zelenskyy at all -- has he indicated he is trying to prepare for a continuity of government, a government in exile, even if he physically doesn't head to lviv, for instance, or maybe outside the country? are there folks in his administration that are preparing to in case kyiv gets overtaken by the russians? >> reporter: if they are planning that, he didn't discuss it. when asked if he would leave kyiv, he said no, he intends to stay here, whether they are working out alternative plans for a fallback government is hard to know. but i think the ukrainian government does realize it needs

to keep him visible, it needs to show he is still in kyiv because there is a concern if he were to leave, if the government were to set up in a foreign country or in the far west, that it would be a pretext to have a coup here, that some putin sycophant already in ukraine could then claim that zelenskyy has abandoned his post, abandoned the government, and announce the creation of a new government. so he definitely wants to show that he's here and to show his people that he is still in charge. >> richard engel on the ground for us in kyiv. thank you. let me move to kelly cobiella. the growing humanitarian crisis. we're up to over a million ukrainians have left the country, and obviously those numbers could escalate assuming the russian violence escalates. kelly, how overwhelmd are things right now?

>> reporter: well, poland said before the fighting broke out that they were prepared to take in at least a million ukrainian refugees. they're at more than half a million at this point, and some of the border towns are starting to get a bit squeezed. it takes a lot to process this vast number of people in this short a time. there are a number of reception centers set up, but really these shelterings that are along these border towns are more set up for people to just take breath, get warm, rest. these are people who have been traveling, as we've said in the past couple days, for days at a time and they're exhausted. but then to move on to other cities. we said before poland has a ukrainian population of about 2 million, and a lot of the people we're seeing are sort of being absorbed into the community. they're meeting up with family, relatives, friends, and staying with them. but that is starting to shift a bit, and it's definitely shifting in the other border countries like moldova, which has a tiny population of 4

million, like romania, like hungary, and some of these countries are now starting to turn to the e.u. for support. another development today, chuck, all seven member nations of the e.u. unanimously agreed today, and this is unprecedented, to enact that directive which allows ukrainian refugees to stay in the e.u. and work, importantly, work and access services in any e.u. country for up to three years. >> that is a huge development there. we shall see how this gross there. kelly cobiella in poland for us, thanks. let me move to clint watts. you're doing something a little different for us today, and that is trying to help explain what the russians are up to, what is this military strategy, and how has it changed over the last week? >> that's right, chuck. we've heard a lot about russian failures and difficulties, but overnight we're really seeing what happens when russia has successes. what we see here is a map of the

south. remember, in 2014 the russians took crimea and the one axis of advance they've had into ukraine has been from the south where they've been successful. right now you see forces that have broken through, are on this axis here, running along the coast of the sea of azov. they are now seized mariupol in such a way it will be absolutely devastating in the comes days. we're talking large indirect fires, artillery, missiles, munitions, devastating this town, total welfare. you talked about kherson. kherson is important because it is the land bridge. it's an essential bridge that connects crimea to the rest of ukraine over the river. kherson, if taken, alouse them to advance fireworkses all the way to the east. if they are successful, if they can make this land bridge, they can pursue all the way to the moldova border, essentially cutting off that small sliver you see in the southwest and eliminating possibility for ukraine to really be supplied by

sea. this would just cut off the entire southern area. it would create a land bridge for forces out in the east. now, separately, chuck, with that, we still need to be talking about what's going on in kyiv. you brought up logistics, and president zelenskyy mentioned it as well. the bat from here on out is about three things -- food, fuel, and ammunition. those three things are what keep armies alive. a big topic of conversation has been this enormous convoy that we've seen here in ukraine. this convoy, hopefully i can pull it up here, the border is moving about the same speed as the convoy at the moment, but this convoy is not what we typically see. when i was an infantry officer, soviet or russians forces, they are stacked up. this is a traffic jam right here. that is indication of worrying about airpower. >> i was going to say they look like a sitting duck. >> they are, chuck. that tells you why you're hearing president zelenskyy say what about a no-fly zone? what about essentially bringing in some airpower? there are some reports that the

ukrainians have hit part of this convoy. this is essential for the logjam to be broken for the russian military going into kyiv. this is also not a displinled military force. this isn't the vaunted russian army divisions we were told about leading up to the invasion. they're sloppy, they're bogged down, and they're going to struggle in terms of their advance. now, with that, one thing to think about is when you look at the broerd map in terms of kyiv, what they have been able to do is start to advance on other areas. you see massive shelling here. it's not a strategic point exempt for one thing. this is rear area essentially of that advancing force. they were sloppy, they were bold, and they got caught trying to go in the first week. in this new period, what you're seeing them do is build that lodge head, build that combat power to sustain the siege of kyiv. mariupol, that should foreshadow what we might see in kyiv.

a little bit of airpower would make a huge difference. >> assuming nobody else intervenes, the russian strategy is a very slow choking off of kyiv? is that what we're going to be watching, like a slow-motion car wreck? watch this slow advance from the south, the east, and the north with really only the west being perhaps a way to get supply lines to ukrainian soldiers in kyiv? >> yeah. they're going to lay siege to kyiv in hopes that they will topple the government. the initial plan was crazy from one perspective with the russians, but it depended on toll lg the rescream in kyiv. remember, they were trying to do a political coup, essentially knock out zelenskyy and his administration, take over the country. now how are they going to do that? they're going lay siege. critical to watch is once they start to envelope here to west -- hopefully i can get this going -- when they envelope here

to the west, they will be cutting those supply lines we've been hearing about through poland. humanitarian aid, lethal aid, 2,000 stinger missiles. how do they get there? if they're cut off in the south and in the west, zelenskyy will have to really think about what his options are in terms of keeping his force going over time. >> clint, can you imagine, a, being flown in by say polish forces that nato sort of protected? or do you think we wouldn't want to risk -- nato would be uncomfortable risking that? >> i think nato is totally uncomfortable due to nuclear option. putin has three cards he plays against the west -- nuclear, cyber, and disinformation. that's his asymmetric tools. he will threaten immediately if he sees any nato forces -- you've heard president biden say

that -- say it's 30 days, the resupply is still going, they don't have kyiv yet, we should be worrying about out here. when you look at the border area, we have refugees going out, but soon we'll see resupply trains coming in, and the other issue is president zelenskyy called for foreign fighters. if foreign fighters start showing up, russia will want to go after that combat power as well. i would think that the russian forces, while they're focused here, if they get bogged down, they'll try and move their forces out towards the west. >> clint, bottom line, this no longer looks like a fast operation that the russians are planning on. this is now a long siege. is that how you would assess this? >> not only a long siege, but putin's got trouble at home, chuck. you're starting to see a lot of panic at home. i'm worried about what if putin is losing in 30 days? what does he do at home, in ukraine? i think all his options are on the table. we've heard of executions, assassinations, and nuclear threats. i'm worried this turn into a

dangerous situation in the coming weeks. >> clint watts, appreciate your time walking folks through this. before that, richard, kelly, and mike, thank you. up next, the white house is asking congress for billions in emergency aid to support ukraine. bob menendez is chair of the senate foreign relations committee, he'll be here after the break. and we'll dive into the january 6th's latest legal finding. the fallout, you saw it, the word criminal and trump in the same headline. got a lot of people wondering what is this about. we'll break it down for you later in the show. riders! let your queries be known. yeah, hi. instead of letting passengers wrap their arms around us, could we put little handles on our jackets? -denied. -can you imagine? i want a new nickname. can you guys start calling me snake? no, bryan. -denied. -how about we all get quotes to see if we can save with america's number one motorcycle insurer? approved. cool! hey, if bryan's not gonna be snake, can i be snake? -all: no.

ancestry made it really easy to learn about my family's history. finding military information, newspaper articles, how many people were living in the house and where it was, makes me curious and keeps pulling me in and the photos reminding me of what life must have been like for them. finding out new bits of information about the family has been a wonderful experience, it's an important part of understanding who we are.

welcome back. as u.s. officials warn that the worst is yet to come in ukraine, the biden administration is preparing to open its wallet. chalonda young sent a letter to congress requesting additional money to be added to this year's budget.

and new sanctions against an expanded list of russian oligarchs and their families is expected today. but there is a demand for more to be done. joining me now is senate foreign relations committee chairman bob me nen december -- menendez. let me start with the next perhaps most realistic punishment we can inflict, a full oil embargo on russia. where are you on this? and is it something that's gaining traction? >> i support an embargo, even though it would equate to if it's just the u.s. alone, about 4% of russian sales globally. but i think it is an important step to make, and i think it is gaining traction. i think, you know, the president will have to look to the strategic petroleum reserve and other measures to offset any domestic challenges.

but, look, an evil, horrible war needs some dramatic actions, and so i think this is one of many that can be taken. >> i don't know how much you were able to watch our previous segment sort of -- we now see what the russian military strategy is, and it's -- the initial strategy didn't work. this one is going to be costlier for him but perhaps more violent, more messy, more bloody. senator, it will be hard to sit here and watch, is it not? and to watch a slaughter, to watch that convoy and do nothing about it. is there anything you think we should be doing more that you think folks have too hesitant to try? >> well, listen, $10 billion of both defensive lethal equipment added on to the billion dollars of just defensive lethal equipment that we've supplied to ukraine is a huge boost to the ukrainians' ability to fight at

the end of the day. i think we strategically have to think about the west as well. we need zelenskyy to be safe because as we face the challenges of kyiv, we need to have a government that we can work with in the days ahead. and so, looking at the west and how we protect that line of assistance is important. i see a lot of the bombing, the indiscriminate bombing, including of civilian targets, not withstanding what the russians say, they are targeting hospitals and businesses and other key areas, and they're coming from ballistic missiles. so in terms of the question of air space, that won't necessarily stop cruise and other missiles that the russians have and have been using in this regard. so, i think we need to get this $10 billion passed, we need to get the aid to them. and i have been approving, as the chairman of the foreign

relations committee that has jurisdiction over arms sales and arms transfers to other countries, i have been approving it as quickly as they send it to me. >> how are we getting -- i mean, are you convinced we're going to be able to continue to actually get these weapons into the hands of ukrainians? i mean, it looks like we really only have one way to do it, right, through poland, through the west. >> that's basically our transit point now, and there's why, you know, speed is of the essence because the more that we can put in the ukrainians' hands, then the more that they'll have both to take the fight to the russians as well as to impede the process of any decision of the russians to move towards the west to cut that transit line. so time is of the essence and that's why i strongly support the administration's call for the $10 billion. it's further than what was originally thought, but from every estimate i've heard from both the humanitarian side and the defense side, it's an

appropriate number. >> when it comes to if we do this oil embargo, and it seems like there's a growing number in congress that would like to see it happen, a lot of republican members say it should be in conjunction with a sort of opening up of more exploration here. where are you on that? and is there a line where you think, yeah, maybe we should -- maybe we should expand some production for a short period of time of fossil fuels? where are you in this? >> well, look, i don't think one hinges on the other. i hope my republican colleagues aren't saying we should stop russian oil only if we have more exploration. that would be pretty outrageous. so, i think we should stop russian oil. now, how the president chooses to meet the challenge of that percentage of russian oil that equals the entire oil of the united states that it imports is a question for him to decide, whether he opens up more of the

strategic petroleum reserves, whether he gets allies that are oil-producing nations to step up to the plate, or whether he permits some increase of domestic production on lands that are already in production. >> senator, big picture here, for now, it looks like none of this has had an impact on the russian government, right. putin is more defiant, seems. to be more intent on trying to strike back, and he may be reacting emotionally. it isn't easy to see how this ends. do you have a sense of where this goes next? do you have a sense of where putin's -- what is being shared with you about putin's sort of persona these days? >> chuck, i disagree with you a little bit that it hasn't hurt the russians. they're hurting mightily. you know, a front of mine passed through the airport and the exchange rate where is you can exchange currency, and the ruble

is being bought at zero. the reality is that their reserves are frozen. he needs those reserves to continue his war. you have long lines of russians trying to get their money out. believe me, you know, their sovereign debt has been reduced by the major rating agencies to junk bond. this is having a real consequence. now, whether he is continuing, willing to accept all of those consequences on behalf of the russian people in order to pursue his goal of taking ukraine and extending to what was the soviet union as much as possible, that's another question. but, you know, it isn't that he isn't being hurt. he may be willing to take the pain but more importantly the russian people are taking the pain. as to his mental status, look, he has been clustered largely for the last two years. covid was supposedly the reason, but i don't think there's anybody telling truth to power there about what's really

happening in the field, what's happening among the russian people, and eventually that's got to blow through. >> senator bob mendez, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, thanks for coming on. jeerlier today on capitol hill, there was a surprise participant in a commerce committee hearing on fcc nominees. take a look. >> all of us today know that these nominees are familiar with these subjects. yay! >> it was new mexico senator ben ray lujan returning to capitol hill, a mof after suffering a stroke. it's great to see him back in action after surgery. walking around, looks like he is in terrific shape after this stroke. his return gives democrats their work mag joe torre back, paves the way for party line votes again on the senate floor. our camera caught up with senator lujan when he got out of

the hearing. >> i did a little trim and i'm ready to work and like i said, feeling strong. the inspiring videos from colleagues that would send them every day or send notes or prayers, people have just been so generous. on behalf of me and my family, we're so grateful to so many people, some we know, some we don't. still to come, after the russian siege continues, we're asking this -- how much longer can ukraine and its people hold up? former ambassador to ukraine is here next after the break. you're watching "meet the press daily."

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in just about 30 minutes the president will be discussing the crisis with his cabinet seven days after the escalation of the invasion into ukraine. many refugees have fled the country. thousands of ukrainian and russian lives are in donbas. countless civilians continue to be impacted by war every day and beautiful cities are essentially getting destroyed. joining me now, former ambassador to ukraine, john herbst. ambassador, it's good to see you. let's start with the big picture here. it's only been a week yet we are decoupling russia from the civilized world, certainly from

europe, and here we are perhaps again. how much has europe in some ways changed in a week or at least where europe's going to be in a decade, where this week changed the direction of europe? >> this has been an historic week not just because of moscow's unprecedented aggression against ukraine, but finally because in europe, germany in particular, they recognize the very dangerous foreign policy putin has been pursuing for at least 15 or 16 years. this is just huge. >> it is -- it is hard to see how this ends diplomatically because putin seems to be a changed person for whatever reason. he seems to be reacting emotionally. ukraine seems to touch him emotionally. maybe this is just a ukraine thing, but maybe this grows into more. do you see a realistic way this ends less violently than it

appears we're headed? >> i'm afraid it's going to become more violent before it becomes less violent. putin is determined to impose his will on ukraine, and the ukrainian people have determined not to accept that, and they're going to fight. that's why his invasion so far has not gone very well for him. one thing to understand is this is putin's war. it's really not russia's war. i'm not even sure it's the kremlin's war. we know russian polls have shown for a while that russian people don't know this. we know the oligarchs don't want it. and what we learned last week in those very strange video conferences, one putin with his national security team, the other with the defense minister and the chief soldier, they don't want this either. their body language in saying yes to putin's policy changes was extremely uncomfortable. this is putin's war, and he's not winning it at this point. >> would an oil embargo on

russia be effective? and how economically harmful is that to europe? >> we've already put substantial pain on russia with the enormous slew of sanctions, but there's no question that an oil and a gas embargo would dry up putin's immediate cash flow. i'm not certain that the west, especially europe, could sustain a full hydrocarbon embargo on purchases from russia, but they might be able to sustain dropping that by 30%, 40%, 50% if the united states joins that. that would cut putin's cash coming in 40%, 50%, which, again, would constrain his ability to wage war. he wouldn't stop, however, and he could stim continue this abominable campaign. >> not when it comes to russian gas and oil? >> they depend on russia for 40% of their natural gas. oil might be easier, but natural gas, not so easy.

>> well, this is why i think the larger picture, it seems like there will be two big changes with europe overall. do you expect more of defense spending from european nations? do you expect more countries that weren't in nato applying to be in nato in the next decade? >> there's no question that putin's big invasion of ukraine has been a strategic disaster for him because germany was actually -- had quite accommodation towards policy before last week. now it's changed. over the last several years, two quintessential neutral countries, sweden and finland, have become increasingly interested in joining nato. last week a poll showed over 60% of the finnish population wantings to join nato because of putin's aggressive foreign policy. they understand his objectives don't end with ukraine. they extend further into europe, the baltic states, which are nato members. that's why it's so important for

us to help ukraine beat putin in ukraine. >> and the decoupling in energy from russia, how long will that take europe if they want to do this long term? >> well, if both europe and the united states were willing to develop their own hydrocarbon resources extensively, it might be possible within a couple years. but i understand the great requirements to move towards green energy, but that requirement has to be exercised in the real world where there are other costs. >> finally, are you -- there's been a lot of inspiration that the ukrainian people have given the world. you've watched them fight, fight back at the russians. it's going to be a rough couple of weeks going forward. how long do you expect the ukrainian military to be able to stand up to the russians?

and do you think that maybe, just maybe, they can push them back or not? >> well, i don't expect the ukrainian military to push the russians back, but they have done a remarkable job holding them thus far, and i think that ability will diminish with time. that depends a lot upon us. i'm delighted to see this additional aid going to ukraine that the congress is going to vote on, but frankly, we should be sending ukraine a billion dollars or more of immediate military aid. they need to goat gete from us a lot more drones, stingers, and javelins, and we need to make sure that our nato allies who have aircraft send them to ukraine. we've been too timid in arming ukraine. we need to -- >> do you think nato shot that down, the united states shot that down? because that seemed to be the idea that any nato nations that had soviet aircraft would help, and that went down. what do you think shut that

down? >> my understanding based upon good but not court-perfect information, is the timidity of the white house shut it down just as it prevented us from sending, what people were arguing for a year, to send anti-ship missiles to ukraine. if we had eight mos ago, the invasion of herson, of mariupol would have been very different. russian ships would have been taken out. >> ambassador herbst, appreciate you coming on. >> thanks. my pleasure. up next, we meet the midterms. one texas republican calls it quits in his re-election campaign. that is a not safe for work story. you're watching "meet the press daily." y. ♪ everybody dance now ♪ ♪♪

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republican taylor has pulled out of the runoff and the nomination goes to a judge who will likely become the next member of congress from this republican-tilting district. we are not going to tell you the details of this gory stuff but let's say the word isis pride is also a part of this scandal. coming up, january 6th committee seeks key documents in its investigation as the committee goes public with its conclusion that former president trump engaged in criminal acts. what happens now? you're watching "meet the press daily." ily.

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welcome back. the january 6th committee said their strongest statement yesterday that they could refer donald trump to the justice department. they filed in a hearing last night that they have enough of a legal basis for a court to take them seriously that trump and his associates engaged in criminal activities. this is how they laid it out.

the filing itself is an attempt by the committee to force a lawyer for trump, the infamous trump, to turn over documents that he wrote they had the proof to turn over the election, and since their evidence points to criminal acts, easeman cannot invoke privilege to keep the documents out of their hands. joining me now is a former u.s. attorney and msnbc legal analyst. carol, first in this court filing, if the court finds the committee is correct and a crime may have been committed, then what? >> yeah, so chuck, there are a couple of arguments that the january 6th committee makes to this judge, and again it's important to understand the context here.

this is not a final report by the january 6th committee, but it is a legal brief that they filed in the california federal court arguing that these many, many documents that he has declined or refused to produce should be produced and there are a couple interesting arguments. one, as you described is the argument that these fall under what we call the crime/fraud exception to attorney khraoeupbl privilege, which is you can't communicate with your client even if the president was his client and you can't communicate with your client in a way that furthers a crime or a fraud, and that's one way the january 6th committee says you should produce these documents. the other one is an easy document that these e-mails were all done on the chat university e-mail system and it's clear that these are not private communications and they should be produced. there are a couple of arguments that the january 6th committee

makes that could be persuasive to this judge. if the judge finds that these are good arguments, particularly the crime fraud exception, that's just one step because what the committee is asking that the judge take a look at these 11,000 documents and determine which ones do fall under the crime fraud exception. it's just one step along the way and it's the midst of the committee's investigation, and it does show what they believe the evidence is pointing to at this point. >> i am curious, i assume that many federal government has attempted to do this with mob attorneys. what is the success rate of being able to sort of overcome a current attorney/client privilege claim by saying this attorney may have helped facility a crime? >> the crime fraud exception is

an exception to the attorney client privilege, and i have used it, because an attorney cannot hide behind that attorney/client privilege if they are part and parcel of a crime. the goal of the committee is to convince a judge this is a crime and not a lawyer advising his clients. certainly the optics, he's invoked the 5th amendment to testify and refusing to testify for that reason it's not good optics for him in this context. >> now the bar is pretty low -- you don't have to prove that a crime was committed, you only have to prove that a crime may have been committed, right? there's -- it's a lower level than perhaps what the justice department may have to deal with in deciding whether there were crimes committed by these folks?

>> that is that a really good point. it's certainly not the criminal standard of beyond a reasonable doubt, but the judge has to believe that there is simply enough evidence to clear the bar of believing that there's a crime. and is it a little more difficult here. i think we should all acknowledge that. it's not -- you know, it is not like a drug crime or a murder where it's absolutely clear, you know, and there are still arguments about that. what the january 6th committee is trying to do right now is get those documents and they have a couple arguments that are good for getting the documents even aside from the crime fraud exception. but you are right, if a judge says yes, i do believe the january 6th committee produced enough evidence to clear the bar that it looks like a crime may have been committed here, is that not dispositive in any way

of whether or not the justice department would decide if it should bring a case. >> you are a former u.s. attorney. would you be able to take this case to merrick garland and ask him to go? >> i was a fraud prosecutor and we tend to be a pretty cautious bunch, and i would like to see all of those documents or as many as i could before i made that decision, chuck. >> i imagine. >> i appreciate you coming on and explaining this to the audience. it was helpful. good to see you. thank you for being with us this hour. we will be back tomorrow with "meet the press daily." msnbc coverage continues with katy tur after this break. er th.

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good to be with you. i am katy tur. u.s. and european officials warn the darkest days are still to come for ukraine. a senior defense official says 90% of russia's prestaged combat forces are inside ukraine's border now and behind the scenes u.s. officials told u.s. allies that the situation will get, quote, very ugly. in some areas it already is. video taken from inside a car captured one neighborhood getting bombed. numerous projectiles could be seen falling around apartment buildings around a tree-lined street and near a school and a children's hospital. in the video, people