connection. talk about how democrats need to break back through and make working class voters their voters again. how do they do it? >> if you look at what tim ryan is doing in ohio, he is like executing the playbook on reminding rank and file that it was the democratic party that is protecting their union rights. their paychecks, their benefits. the unions in this country built the middle class. they really were the basis of people having money to retire and go on vacation and buy a bass boat. we got sidelined by the culture wars which really hurt in many -- >> still sidelined. >> still sidelined. >> i would suggest maybe more sidelined now for working class voters than ever before. >> you may be right, joe. so what we have to do is stay focused on the economic issues that joe biden is delivering on especially for these rank and

file members in these unions. >> and how is this happening? because i know people get really angry on twitter. i'm just trying to help here. but wokism, it is a huge issue among working americans. the southern border, a huge issue among working americans. supporting cops and the working americans will talk about it that way, supporting law enforcement. that is a huge issue. and republicans have been able to tear working class voters away from the democratic base. and so what do democrats have to do? republicans talk the talk but the democrats walk the walk. there has never been a democrat -- well, a few, but most democrats understand that the country has to have secure borders and certainly joe biden has shown just in his budget

document in the last few weeks that he wants more funding to keep our streets safe, to invest in community police officers. the victims of these homicides are in the same communities that feel like the police can't be trusted. so there needs to be more investment, not less. and is that the vast majority of democrats. they have just done a bad job about focusing on those issues when we message the campaigns. most of the democrats agree on everything just about, just a few outliers. and we need to quit giving so much attention to the outliers and focus on frankly the middle left which is where we win elections and how we control congress. >> and coming up in the fourth hour of "morning joe," we'll talk to steve kornacki who is at the big board. >> and he is angry. >> and opening day tomorrow, i have to get that in before i leave, we have a tale of two.

youngest manager in baseball and then three old men with the cardinals. it will be a fun year. >> do you think that you can win this year? >> never underestimate the cardinals in october. ever. >> that is true. love your passion. thank you very much. we'll roll right into the fourth hour right now. diving into the news this morning, global outrage is giving way to global action as the world tries to confront russia over those horrific atrocities uncovered in ukraine. just a half an hour from now, nato foreign ministers will begin arriving in brussels. secretary of state antony blinken is there. he will address the gathering in just a few hours. but first he spoke exclusively to andrea mitchell who asked him how the u.s. and others plan to hold putin and others responsible. >> the wheels of accountability can move slowly, but they move. and some day, some way,

somewhere, those who committed these crimes and those who ordered the crimes will be held accountable. but it takes time. >> this as ukrainian officials and civilians take stock of the devastation left behind by russian forces and prepare for what may be coming next. also this morning, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy said that russia now is using hunger as a weapon against the ukrainian people. speaking to irish lawmakers, zelenskyy said that they are destroying things that are sustaining livelihoods to people, they are heading places where we store fuel, food and fields. they are putting mines into the fields he said. why are they doing this? because for them, hunger is also a weapon. a weapon against ordinary people as an instrument of domination. >> and when it comes to their consequences, nbc news has confirmed that president biden is expected to announce new sanctions on vladimir putin's

family, specifically his two daughters. at the same time, the white house is planning to ban all new investment in russia. and step up sanctions on russian banks and government officials. the president is expected to speak about all of this at a 12:45 press conference this afternoon. the biden administration is also sending $100 million worth of javelin anti-tank missile systems to ukraine. >> and european ambassadors are set to meet later today as they negotiate a new package of sanctions. sources tell cnbc that they could target everything from jet fuel to luxury goods. and we learned tuesday that they will ban coal imports from russia. but members are still divided on whether to go further and ban imports of russian oil and natural gas because of the impacts on their own economies. >> and inside ukraine, investigators are hunting through the devastating towns around keefe owing gathering evidence of mass killings. and remember, the pictures are

disturbing that we're about to show you. according to the "washington post," roughly 50,000 investigators are inside ukraine speaking to locals and documenting alleged war crimes including rape, torture and murder. russia continues to deny that any civilians died during the russian occupation around kyiv, insisting that all of the images that are you looking at right now are fake. and now military leadership here in the united states is suggesting that there may be no end in sight. tuesday mark milley said that the war in ukraine could last for years. he also said that the united states will be involved for, quote, some time and suggested that the u.s. establish permanent bases in eastern europe to confront the russian threat. joining us now live from lviv, foreign correspondent ali arouzi. so what is the latest in terms fz what you are seeing on the ground there?

>> reporter: good morning. well, the latest report we're getting right now is now that the russians have sort of botched that assault on kyiv and their suburbs, their emphasis has shifted east now and the governor of the luhansk district is saying that 10 apartment buildings are now on fire after they came on heavy shelling from the russians. nbc news can't independently confirm that, but there are images and it looks like that that focus is very firmly on the east. as you know, they have separate separatists that are loyal to moscow. and so i think that it will be a very intense campaign of hitting the east of this country and now that they have moved away from the capital. but also everybody here that you speak to is tell in shock and deep, deep sorrow but what happened in bucha. nobody here is getting over it. those images are very distressing to all the ukrainians here.

and there was a vigil last night just behind where i am standing and about 200 people showed up to pay respects to the people killed in bucha. they were really, really upset about it, people were crying, they were advisably shaken about what had happened. we had the chance to speak to one young woman who is a teacher in irpin which is only about ten minutes drive from bucha. she had pretty harsh words to say to the russians. let's take a listen to what she had to say. >> they are no people because they have no soul, no heart to feel sorry for us. they still believe it is fake, they still believe that it is just us who are attacking ourselves, which makes no sense to me. so i guess if they were people they would understand. and i just want them to leave us alone. everybody. just to leave us alone. >> reporter: and it is amazing everybody you speak to here, their resolve has just been stiffened by what happened in bucha.

any ukrainian you speak to, they keep saying that we'll still win this war and get our territory back. >> ali arouzi reporting from lviv. thanks so much for your reporting this morning. so joe, the west, president biden continued to turn the screws, new sanctions going to be announced in a few hours today. $100 million worth of javelin missiles. the eu says we won't buy russian coal anymore. and yet vladimir putin in retreat continues to commit the atrocities. >> and we hear the war could continue possibly for quite some time. if so, then vladimir putin will do what khrushchev's granddaughter said this morning, he will destroy his country. russia. we're looking at horrific images from ukraine. make no mistake, when this war is over, europe, america, the west will go in and they will rebuild ukraine. and it will be really the secretary version of the marshall plan. ukraine will be rebuilt and

russia will suffer historically in the coming years the longer the massive atrocities are committed. and we're always obsessing about the history and how vladimir putin is so focused on history. we heard president zelenskyy talking about the russians using hunger against the ukrainians. again, ukrainians also remember history. they also remember joseph stalin in the early 1930s sealing off the border of ukraine. and it causing 3 million to 4 million ukrainians to starve to death. it was a systemic starvation, systemic genocide. and, you know, this happened when your mother was alive. when -- this happened when other people -- i just say that to say that there are people alive in ukraine right now who were alive

when joseph stalin engaged in mass starvation tactics. so we wonder why the ukrainians are fighting so hard. it is not just because of what has happened since following the soviet union, but they know what russian tyrants have done to them in the past and they won't threat it happen again. >> and what is also frustrating is that for all of these years, the world has been dependent on russia for energy, and that dependence keeps us in this situation at some point. >> and they are moving away. europeans especially say that they are planning to move away from that dependence. >> it will be difficult. turning now to this development out of washington as first reported by nbc news, ivanka trump testified for eight hours tuesday before the house committee investigating the january 6 attack on the capitol. the former president's daughter appeared virtually and is now the highest ranking member of the trump administration to speak with the select committee.

her husband jared testified last week. committee chair bennie thompson tells nbc news that ivanka trump answered questions, quote, not in broad chatty terms but she is answering questions. she was in the west wing on january 6. the committee also saying that it received testimony that members of the white house staff requested ivanka trump's assistance, quote, on multiple occasions to intervene in an attempt to persuade president trump to address the ongoing lawlessness and violence on capitol hill. a representative for ivanka did not immediately respond to a request for comment. >> you know, it is interesting, willie, again as we see the events of january 6 unfold as the committee gets them and lay all the facts out, we're going to see donald trump an increasingly isolated plan

inside his own west wing where ivanka, don jr., staff members, fox news hosts desperately trying to get him do what his republican members and most loyal members in congress were trying to get him to do, to intervene. >> say something. >> as we found out, not only was donald trump just standing in the white house staring at the violence unfolding, but according to testimony, rewinding his dvr and replaying the most violent parts. and obsessed with and thrilled by the loyalty the mob had with him. >> and to be pushed out according to reporting to finally make that statement.

the point of this is to tell them to go home and eventually he got there. but an interesting position for ivanka, she is the daughter of the president but she was in realtime telling him to make it stop and he was ignoring his daughter. and we should also say for all the people who didn't show up, steve bannon, mark meadows, this committee has volumes of testimony, emails, texts. they will get the full story of what happened that day because even mark meadows who didn't show up to testify turned over all of his emails and texts. this committee will tell the story. >> and thereis dividing line really. a lot of people loyal to donald trump almost to the very end, loyal in ways that a lot of us did not understand. but even for most of those people, january 6 was the dividing line. >> a breaking point. >> a breaking point. up next, president biden and other world leaders say that putin is a war criminal. but what would the consequences actually look like? we'll ask a prosecutor who

worked for the international criminal court. also ahead this hour, two major banks sounding the alarm that the u.s. is headed toward a recession. we'll break down why when "morning joe" comes right back. k

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i think that u.n. failed. nato failed. and criminal courts failed. so we'll have to do it by ourselves and we are ready to do it. because the organizations that were supposed to keep peace allowed for all this horror to happen in my country. >> that was a member of the ukrainian parliament sharing her president's frustration with the international community. joining us now, founding chief prosecutor for the permanent international criminal court, luis morena.

sir, does she have a point somehow does accountability happen at this point? >> well, she has a point. they are suffering. all the victims have a point. the good news is now there is a law, it is a crime what is happening in ukraine are crimes. there was not a personal court but now you have a permanent prosecutor, the current chief prosecutor, who was already in ukraine. he opened the litigation because ukraine has the international court presence. and investigating the crime. so that is good news. it is a little complicated yes because war crimes is complicated. but let me start with the first. it is prohibited. there are three crimes coming into here. immigration crimes, war crimes and crimes against humanity. and three are committed.

but the most obvious crime, the crime that putin committed by ordering military intervention in a country, these crimes could not be in russia. war crimes and crimes against humanity, yes, the prosecutor is already conducting an investigation. the issue is he decides where and how far and against human it is going. and he cannot talk about that because he is investigating the crimes. you mentioned january 6. imagine after one year you are still investigating a small incident. now you have 10 million people displaced, so it is massive atrocities. how do to do that? that is the challenge. >> and we're talking to the former chief prosecutor of the international criminal court. you did say that there is now a law in place. but how to follow up with a sitting leader. >> ukrainian courts have

immunity. the international criminal court, no. there is no immunity before the international criminal court. that is why putin can be investigated. problem is migration crime. and this crime was established that most countries, russia, and the ukraine, have to be members. and russia is not a member of the icc so you need a solution that will never pass because russia has veto. so it protects putin from that crime. however there are crimes against humanity that because when you see this hospital destroyed, people killed on the street, very difficult for the

prosecutor to prove the responsibility under vladimir putin. because not only you have a victim, you have to prove who committed the crime. and i don't think that it is clear that putin ordered soldiers to kill the civilians on the street or to shoot and shell the hospital which includes killing civilians. in war you can kill any combatant legally, but you cannot kill civilians. >> luis, thank you very much for your insight. we'll be following this for sure. coming up, two major banks warning that we could be headed straight toward a recession. and drama on the tarmac. jetblue making a big offer to buy spirit airlines. trying to spoil its deal with frontier. and plus inside the fight, pliing out on capitol hill over

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welcome back. 27 past the hour. >> so andrew ross sorkin is back. and i'll be showing you some pictures that look like ink blots. but when i put them up, tell me what is the first thing that you see. we're glad that you are back. >> why no couch is the question. >> i want you to bring your mom. >> she's ready to come. she wants to come in. >> mom, i can't wait. >> so tomorrow morning, okay? >> but until then -- >> because it is a big booking. >> it is a huge book. >> we'll have a seat right next to you. >> deutsche bank is predicting that the u.s. could plunge into a recession next year. goldman sachs a little more optimistic saying that there is a 38% chance within the next two

years. >> very specific. >> already signs of trouble though with consumers already buying more generic store brands, choosing cheaper versions of eggs, sugar and even baby formula. and andrew ross sorkin is hear, also the anchor of cnbc's "squawk box." >> so we're dealing with inflation. are we looking at stagflation next year? >> i think that is the worry. and the question is do you believe this federal reserve or anybody at this point can actually quote/unquote land the plane. so how do you -- what they are trying to do is reduce demand. nobody likes to talk about that but to make this all work out given the high prices that we have, we actually have to figure out a way sort ofsystemically to reduce demand. so you have to make things oddly more expensive to make other things less expensive if that makes any sense to you. that is the hard part. the idea is how does it need to

become more expensive. needs to be more expensive to get a loan. >> explain why? >> because then it reduces demand. it becomes more expensive do those things and then effectively the idea is that prices which are sky high on things like food and gas and other things will come down because of the less demand for them. >> so explain -- you are talking about landing this plane. explain how we're living through a remarkable time, but people trying to land that plane, people runs the biggest banks and running the wall street firms, best and brightest like you that are reporting on this, none of them had ever been through this before. like inflation, this -- >> we've not been through it in 30 years. >> since volcker. >> since volcker. and that was a situation where

prices got out of hand and the question is how do you control prices. it is a very hard thing to do. and that is what we're sort of up against at this point. and the question is can you do it without tipping the economy into recession. deutsche bank saying that recession is coming. goldman sachs saying maybe. the question is what does that recession look like. deutsche bank saying that we could be looking at unemployment creeping back up to 5%. that is actually not terrible on a relative basis to where we were post financial crisis when i would come in with you and we were talking 10%, 12%. it was up there. >> you mentioned houses being more expensive. and you talked about a housing bubble. the dallas fed last week said that this is coming, it will burst. may not be like 2008, but prices have gotten so detached from market fundamentals. >> there is a limited supply and

there is so much money being thrown into the system. so if you make it more expensive, maybe you as to that. you have a lot of people with these seven year a.r.m.s and then the ten year optionals and then they become due and a 30 year fixed straight about 5%, last year it was 3%. you can see where that could go. >> and why they are so front loaded right now, people are paying mainly interest the first two, three, four years. they are not giving 30 year loans out. they are giving out 15 years. and so people will turn around and it will look like 2008 because they will go wait a second -- >> 5% unemployment in this country would not be cataclysmic. some people argue that living in the 3.5%, that is a little alice in wonderland. this is also not normal either. in some ways it is a great thing because it is also pushing up wages for the first time. >> let's talk about jetblue. >> oh, goodness.

>> what is going on there? >> jetblue -- frontier and spirit airlines, really the low cost airlines in america, which have kept prices to some degree down even though we're seeing rates across the board rocket up, now jetblue is trying to effectively break up -- they were going to merge together or at least proposing to. and jetblue is saying no, no, i'll offer money to buy spirit airlines, they are offering something like i think it is a 20% premium over what frontier was paying. and the question is whether you think washington or the ftc or justice department will say this can't happen and whether a deal like this putting jetblue and spirit together would effectively increase prices everyone more. the political pressures on this will be enormous in large part because would he as taxpayers all gave the airlines an enormous amount of money as you know during covid. and now these airlines are turning around and saying actually, we couldn't survive before without your help and now we can't survive without

consolidating otherwise we'll lose money. >> interesting. stay with us because we want to go to the white house on another economy-related issue. today they are set to extend the pause on federal student loan payments through the end of august. president biden's decision could impact more than 40 million people nationwide. so for more on this, let's bring in white house correspondent for politico and co-author of the playbook, eugene daniels. eugene, what can you tell us? >> reporter: me and my colleague michael strafford broke the news that august 31st was the date that the administration had chosen to extend these loans -- or extend the pause through. excuse me. but then one of the things as i was talking toed a vow today thes, folks on the hill, even some people in the education department is that no one was really asking for august 31, they wanted to go through december, get through the midterms so they didn't have any of those issues there.

so there is a little confusion and frustration that august 31st was the date though people are obviously excited that it was extended once again. i will also say that couple of folks brought up to me that august 31st does provide a deadline. is this a time where the administration extends again and then they do that right before the midterms. or does president biden -- does it put pressure on president biden or congress to actually do something to getting rid of some of these and forgiving some of these student loans. so that is something that folks should be looking out for. >> and we know how the banks are looking at this. if they forgive all the student loans, they don't get their money back. >> and i think it is broader than that. going into the midterms, when you look at the polling, a whole group of people want these loans to be forgiven, but when there is a whole group who don't want them for given because they think to themselves i paid my loans. i paid my loans back. i don't understand why these guys are getting a free ride. and other folks who say not only that, they say look, to make

this whole system work eventually, higher education needs to cost less. we can't continue to have these -- and government is pushing it up. and so it is like a third rail issue. you'd think that it won't be because in so many ways rationally you think that people just want the money. but there is people on the other side of this issue. >> you get the sense that maybe why president biden keeps kicking the can down the road, because there are a lot of people if you look at the polls that say wait a second, hold on, i spent 15 years paying back my student loans. they will just forgive it for somebody else? so almost like you say five more months instead of just making a definitive decision. >> absolutely. andrew is right, there are so many people even some democrats who say, look, guys, i already did this, why do i have to now watch as everyone else gets it. and then you talk to folks at the white house and even folks

in the ed department that this would release a lot of people especially black and brown people from debt, some of those folks who didn't even finish their college degree and still have some of these. and one thing we should note, that april 1st last year, ron klain the white house chief of staff told us that the administration was working on a memo about how much the president could sign away. we have not seen that memo. and every time we ask, they tell us that there is an update on that memo to get rid of some of those loans. >> interesting. eugene daniels from the white house, thank you very much. maybe they will pull it back? >> and by the way, this all feeds into this inflation story. and i know this will sound crazy. but the idea, if in fact you forgive all the loans, you think good for the economy. in some ways bad for the economy. because it creates more demand. as i said before, in a strange

and perverse way, you almost don't want more demand in the economy today because that just pushes up prices. i know it is -- it is mind boggling. >> so let's talk about the bigger problem. the bigger problem is, and at least i think it is, inflation. you may just be coming to america for the first time in 30 years, but it has been hitting higher education year after year after year. tuition rates have skyrocketed, and in part because we have a federal student loan program that universities, not blaming the stubtd s thetudents, students have to go and they can't afford the prices, but the universities go this is okay, the feds will just bore rote money. i think that the federal government has to say you want to participate in the student loan program, this is the rule. if you are a state college, it is $10,000 a year.

private college, $30,000 a year. you can charge what you want to charge, but if you want our money -- and by the way the interest rates are a bit insane now as well. >> by the way, it is a little like health care. people would argue that if the federal government can get control of the pricing or unless you can get control in the price of education, it will keep going up. if you keep saying that we're happy to pay, other people on the other side will say great. >> and why is it like health care? because when you go to a doctor, there is -- you don't have market forces. you have a third party, you have an insurance company, you don't know how much the scan is going on cost, how much the mri is going on cost. you don't know how much the hospital is charging you for advil. and again, so you take it away from market forces and it is the same way with college. okay, so they are charging 45% more than they charged two years ago. i'm just taking out a student loan now. it is ridiculous. >> the great conundrum of our time. it is. >> andrew ross sorkin, this was

a little harder than yesterday. yesterday was so easy, just doing therapy. >> i find that harder. see you tomorrow maybe with my mom. >> i'd love it. >> let's get his mom in here. a lot to talk about. steve kornacki will be joining us at the big board next. plus a look at some of the other stories in the morning papers. let's see how this will go today, willie, including how one u.s. businessman went from life on his house boat in portland to transporting ukrainian refugees in a rented van. also a followup on that pitch fork story. >> we'll explain next. tory >> we'll explain next.

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let's take a look at some of

the morning papers. the "san francisco chronicle" reports that the city now has the highest covid infection rate of any county in the state as the ba.2 subvariant continues to spread. the city is now averaging 14 cases per 100,000 residents. >> the seattle "times" has a fascinating front page feature about a former microsoft vice president, rick thompson. he has been in europe since late march shuttling ukrainian refugees to safety in a rented volkswagen van. thompson says that he felt compelled to be there in person to help. >> that is very cool. and the reno gazette is reporting that nevada is about to receive a major cash infusion in the fight against the opoid epidemic. the state will receive $284 million as part of a settlement with distributors and manufacturers. opoid deaths in nevada have jumped 40% back in 2020. and coming up, president biden makes his return to the

white house ahead of the crucial midterm elections. so where do things stand and what are the races to watch? steve kornacki -- >> he came in today. he was like elvis, you know, shooting the tv screen. >> just walked right to the big board. does not want to have eye contact. >> oh, god, it is not true. >> steve kornacki will break it all down. to make my vision a reality my varilux progressive lenses provide seamlessly transition from near to far. with every detail in sharp focus. that's seeing no limits.

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born with cleft conditions. we need you. there are still millions in dire need of healing. go to operationsmile.org today and become a monthly supporter, or call. (gentle music) mr. president, what do you say to democrats worried about the midterms? >> we've got a story to tell and he's going told it. >> former president obama with a simple message for democrats yesterday during his first time back at the white house since 2017. it comes as nbc news learns that he plans to play an active role in helping democrats before the midterms. but he'll follow president biden's lead. a wave of 23 house democrats already said that they won't run for office again. and several republican lawmakers who voted to impeach president

trump also leaving, including michigan congressman, fred upton, who announced just yesterday that he won't seek re-election. >> when we started -- when we start talking about the fourth hour, i'm dead serious here, one of the first things we said is, we need steve kornacki. >> oh, right, yes, of course! well needed the rage. >> we needed him. we actually made a call of front office, and said, we need kornacki. >> joining us now -- >> bringing hope, and love, and joy and data. >> reporter: national political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc, steve kornacki. steve, what's the state of play right now for november? >> well, happy to be a part of the fourth hour. thank you for thinking of me. i appreciate it. let's take you through what we can say right now. first of all, i think the big picture thing to keep in mind, wherever we're talking about midterm elections is, this is the history. we're going back here to world war ii. and these things don't usually start out equal, where either party has a chance to win or lose seats.

you're seeing the white house party in every midterm election, this is taking it back to 1942. look at all of that red ink on there. those are lost house seats. there are only two exceptions, 2002, right after 9/11, george w. bush and the republicans defied history. 1998. that's as republicans were moving to impeach bill clinton. there was a backlash against that. democrats gained seats then. every other midterm election going back, you see there into the 1940s. the opposition parties gain seats. the question has been, how many. one thing to keep in mind in terms of the backdrop. let's look at more of the modern history and how biden stands right now politically compared to his recent predecessors. what that's looked at. if you look at the average approval rating for joe biden right now, it sits at 41%. right now, today. take a look at this exact same point for his recent predecessors, where their approval rating sat. you see that biden number, very, very similar to where trump was at this point in the 2018 midterm campaign. obama was a few points higher, although his numbers were on the way down at this point in 2010.

bush, we mentioned, post-9/11, very different situation. bill clinton was actually at this point in 1994, still at 50%. but you take a look at what happened to these presidents in the midterm elections. again, clinton and the democrats took a bath. joe, i know i don't need to tell you about 1994. barack obama and the democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. we all remember the 40-seat loss for republicans, losing control of the house under donald trump in 2018. so, again, that's the modern history. you look at that biden number. it's in line with what's been bad news for the white house party in midterm elections. and again, what republicans need to get the house here, they gain seats in 2020, even as trump lost. they only need to get up to 218. so they don't need a tsunami here to get control of the house. the one thing, though, that i do think is interesting and potentially a little bit different and complicating this time around is this. let's take a look at sort of seats that you would -- house seats we're talking here, that you would call the most

vulnerable. the ones that the opposition party this is it has the best chance of picking off. take a look at this. right now, we're talking about democratic-held districts, right? a couple of categories here, that went for donald trump, right? that's an obvious target for republicans. the district already voted for trump. it's democratic-held now. it's an obvious target in the midterm election. there are ten of those, okay? if you go to the next level, there are districts that democrats held, where biden won, but biden won narrowly. less than five points. there are eight of those. and the next level, biden won by five to ten points. there are 15 of those. if you add all those all together, there are 33 total seats there. democratic districts right now. by the way, redistricting still playing out. these numbers could change a bit. but 33 total districts that fall into that kind of prime vulnerability candidate for democrats. just compare this to 2018. and take a look. it was different back then. the number of republican-held seats that had gone for hillary clinton was 25.

the number that had gone for trump by less than five points was 12. the number that had gone between 5 and 12 points for trump was 26. basically, there was 63 republican-held seats in 2018. they fall into sort of this prime vulnerability category, because of the way redistricting, gerrymandering, all of these things we talk about, basically half as many right now, democratic seats that fall into that category. you look at some of those huge numbers we've seep in the past, in terms of midterm tsunami losses for the white house party. one thing that could insulate democrats somewhat, at least, is this. >> it's fascinating to look at the -- and the house is expected to swing back, right, toward republicans. but let's look at the senate map. i know you've got a couple of races you're looking at. we were talking about georgia a minute ago. republicans publicly and privately are very concerned about what's going on there with at least one of their candidates. >> donald trump got behind herschel walker. legendary name in sports, but there are concerns about how

republicans have been expressing about how he'll hold up as a candidate. looking at a 50/50 senate, you have competitive/potentially competitive senate races here. the way i look at it is this. if you're republicans, your three best offensive targets are georgia, arizona, and nevada. these are three democratic-held seats, where i think republicans at least on paper right now, have their best chance of making gains. you flip that around, and democrats, if they want to hold on to the senate, keep it 50/50, keep having kamala harris able to break those ties, two things to keep. pennsylvania is their clearly best target here. republican held, but an open seat state that joe biden won in 2020, huge opportunity there for democrats. i think the key for democrats is wisconsin. ron johnson, two-term incumbent. twice democrats have gone into the general election, thinking they're going to beat johnson. twice, they've lost. if they could beat him in 2022, i think that could shift the math in their favor. that's a huge one for them.

>> he's the best. >> without question! >> he's just the best. >> and to see the khakis up close, there's almost a glow -- >> i know, i'll take a pick for my daughter. >> can we get your autograph after. >> she's obsessed with him. nbc's steve kornacki, thank you very much. also, go to plan your vote ksh the plan your vote tool at nbc news.com, where you can get the latest voting rules in your state. coming up, we are watching d.c., where any minute, fbi director chris wray and attorney general merrick garland will be holding a press conference to discuss how they're dealing with criminal russian activity. we'll take you there when it begins. >> are we doing the fifth hour now? >> no. jose diaz-balart is doing it. >> oh, yeah. >> this is it for us. they want us off the set. >> tapping out. >> they're dragging us off. >> i've got more to say. >> that does it for us this morning. jose diaz-balart picks up the coverage in two minutes. icks up coverage in two minutes. your projects done right

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well, we found her in austin between a fresh bowl of matcha and fresh batch of wireframes. ...but you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork. good morning. 10:00 a.m. eastern, 7:00 a.m. pacific. i'm jose diaz-balart. any minute now, merrick garland and christopher wray will address new actions to crack down on what they call criminal russian activity. we're going to bring you those remarks live. and in just a couple of hours, president biden is expected to address new sanctions against russia on day 45 of the invasion. this as the u.s. and eu are considering sanctioning putin's doctors. also breaking this morning, more attacks in ukraine, including an apartment building where emergency crews are searching for bodies in the rubble. and while civilians b for more violence. russia denying allegations of war crimes in