you, my friend. appreciate you getting up early for us today. thanks to all of you for watching us on "way too early" on this wednesday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is wednesday, april 13th. we want to update you right away on the major story that broke while we were on the air yesterday morning. the very latest in the worst shooting in the history of the new york city subway. this morning, a man hunt is still under way for the person who opened fire in that crowded subway car during rush hour yesterday. police are currently calling it a man they are connecting to the shooting a person of interest. 62-year-old frank james. nypd identified him last night, nearly 12 hours after the shooting. police say he rented a u-haul van in philadelphia, which was found yesterday afternoon about 5 miles from the 36th street station where the shooting occurred. a key to the van, along with a credit card with james' name on

it, were found at the scene. officers also found the handgun used, three magazine clips, a hatchet, and a bag filled with fireworks, gasoline, and two unused smoke canisters. police say james has addresses in wisconsin and philadelphia, but it is not clear what, if any, connection he has to new york. according to "the new york times," james has posted dozens of videos on social media with biggotted views and recently criticized the policies of new york city mayor eric adams. it was just before 8:30 yesterday when the attack began on a manhattan-bound n-train in the sunset park neighborhood of brooklyn. police say at least ten people were shot. at least 13 others were hurt when the suspect fired 33 rounds from a handgun and set off two smoke canisters. as the train pulled into the station, many of those injured

collapsed onto the subway platform while others were helped to safety. the good news this morning is that all of the victims are expected to survive. ahead this morning, new york city mayor eric adams joins us live. plus, two of the city's former police commissioners, bill bratton and dermot shay. the head of the mta, what he says about the rise in crime on the city's subway system and what can be done about it. willie? >> the full lineup on that story as they continue to pursue the suspect, the person of interest. another story that broke yesterday during "morning joe," the massive jump on inflation, soaring prices on everything from food to rent to gas. the white house rolling out new efforts to help stem the cost at the gas station and grocery store and just about everywhere else. we also are following significant developments in the war in ukraine. after multiple rounds of peace talks with ukrainian officials, russian president vladimir putin says those negotiations have hit a dead end, in his words.

a joint news conference yesterday with one of his only remaining allies, the president of belarus, lukashenko, putin vowed to push on with the invasion, pledging russia's military operation will continue until its full completion. "the new york times" reports it this way, the operations goals, he said, centered on the donbas region in eastern ukraine, where pro-russia separatists have been fighting since 2014. it was the first time mr. putin himself had effectively defined a more limited aim for the war, focusing on control of the donbas and not all of ukraine, which mr. putin and his subordinates have said shouldn't be an independent country. the russian leader also blamed ukraine for the peace talks failing, claiming moscow has no choice but to press on after he said russia was falsely accused of committing war crimes in bucha. it should be noted, even while those peace talks were taking place, most were spectacle russia was serious about reaching an agreement. meanwhile, for the first time, president biden has

publicly called russia's actions in ukraine a genocide. >> your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a war away. >> the comment ratchets up the rhetoric on the invasion. unlike when biden first called putin a war criminal, the president is not walking back his comments on genocide. >> yes, i called it genocide because it has become clearer and clearer that putin is trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be ukrainian. the evidence is mounting. it's different than it was last week. more evidence is coming out of -- literally, the horrible things the russians have done in ukraine. we're going to only learn more and more about the devastation. we'll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me. >> ukrainian president volodymyr

zelenskyy later thanked president biden in a tweet, calling the comment, quote, true words of a true leader, joe. with us, we have the president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. the host of "way too early" and bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. >> i'm struck by what joe biden said, willie, when he said that -- that putin wanted to wipe out the very idea of being ukrainian. >> right. >> you know, i've told you, and i've been going back reading dr. brzezinski's works on the soviet union to see the parallels between the old soviet union and seeing there is really not a difference at all in his mindset. in '82, '83, dr. brzezinski said what the russians have done throughout history, what the soviets do, they want to wipe smaller, weaker countries out, and wipe them out militarily, economically, and biologically.

we use the term "biologically," and i sort offlinched. that's exactly what they're trying to do. >> a miscalculation was he believed ukraine wanted to be reunified with russia, to be back with the old soviet union. he is finding a country that may be smaller, richard haass, but it is not weaker, given how they've put up this fight. he is moving the goalposts and talking about his goals yesterday as being donbas, not necessarily kyiv, which it was about a month ago. >> that much is clear. what is less clear is what does he mean by donbas? there is the donbas, and there is the donbas, what russia has been controlling since 2014. there is a larger area of it. we also don't know, willie, whether that is a foothold, then he'd once again go back to his more ambitious aims, if he ever were to regain control over all the donbas. i think we've got to take all this with a grain of salt. the only thing he said yesterday that i thought was patently true was the peace talks reached a

dead end for now. that was a rare moment of honestly and accuracy. >> i was just going to say, richard, he lies all the time. as my mother would say of certain people, you know, they lie even when telling the truth would be better for them. he is just a liar, so you have to sort through everything he says. there is no doubt, you look at him talking about the peace talks coming to an end, you look at some of the other things he is saying to try to appear, you know -- to throw down the gauntlet. the donbas, is it the donbas pre-invasion or new lines he sketched out? it's funny, that's what i focused on. now, he is resetting expectations for domestic consumption. so he can get the donbas, or some part of it, and go back home and say, "hey, we won. we did exactly what we wanted to do. i'm not the weakest man in europe. russia is not the sick man of

europe. our army is not a third rate army. we came ask acomp and accomplis mission," even though, of course, the rest of the world will know he's lying. he is resetting expectations and downplaying them dramatically. >> i agree, joe. in that sense, it is clear progress. what's really happening now is whether he can do it. it is not a foforegone conclusi that he can hold what he has, much less expand it. then there is the question of what can president zelenskyy live with? it is not what it was seven weeks ago. because of the atrocities we know about, because of the atrocities, i fear, joe, we're going to learn about, my sense is their willingness to compromise on certain issues is much less than it was. i see nothing here that suggests to me after this large set-piece battle we seem to be heading toward, that, necessarily, we've got a basis for a serious negotiation. >> jonathan, of course, there was all this consternation a few

weeks ago when president biden called putin a war criminal and said he must be removed from power. afterwards, every foreign policy expert said those are true. this time, using a term genocide, which is a legal term. there's a lot behind that. stepping out before cameras and saying, "yeah, i meant exactly what i said." >> both times, he went ahead of the rest of the administration on the war criminal thing and the idea of saying putin should be removed from power. the white house quickly walked that back. on his europe trip, he said putin should be ousted. within minutes, an official said, no, he doesn't mean that. this time, he said, i meant that. it was an off the cuff remark, but president biden has been largely right about these things, getting ahead of public sentiment. the rest of the foreign policy community and europe, mostly, not unanimously, mostly agrees with him. there was no effort to walk that back yesterday, though, indeed, genocide is a legal term. next steps remain to be seen. certainly, western officials

are, to richard's point, plot planning now. they think there is going to be this huge set piece battle in the donbas. they're trying to get weapons there to the ukrainians as quickly as possible. as president zelenskyy sends signals he is not sure he'd be willing to accept any sort of negotiated settlement that involves giving territory to russia in light of the atrocities committed in bucha and other places. >> that's just it, joe. the world is watching with its own eyes what russia is doing. we see it on our screens every day. when president biden uses terms like war criminal and genocide, the world can say, yeah, that's what we're watching. >> no doubt about it. it's so fascinating to see these efforts to move towards a peace agreement. the reason vladimir putin, mika, said peace efforts are dead right now is because he continues to look for a win. >> yeah. >> zelenskyy yesterday reminding him that his 48-hour war in ukraine to take over kyiv and the rest of the country has now gone on more than 48 days. what's happened over the 48 days? he's had to retreat from kyiv.

humiliation. long convoys going in to dominate that city ended up getting blown to pieces by women driving trucks out to the convoy, blowing russian armored vehicles up, and driving back into the city. they've beaten the hasty retreat. their morale is at an all-time low. so there is no guarantee that they're going to be able to clean up the donbas. then we're going to have something to negotiate at the end, that we're going to be able to see a negotiation here. it is still fluid on the ground, and i think, right now, the biggest challenge for vladimir putin, getting to peace talks, is the fact his army can't win anything. >> that, and you talk about -- >> he can't win. >> -- morale being low. one of vladimir putin's closest allies in ukraine has reportedly been captured. photos are being posted of that

man all over the place. in an effort to help ukrainian forces fighting on the ground, the white house is planning to send more weapons to the war-torn country. u.s. officials say the new aid could be worth $750 million. it may be announced as early as this week. the package is likely to include weapons with new capabilities, such as mi-17 helicopters and unmanned drone ships. the equipment is specifically aimed at helping ukrainian forces fighting the russians in the eastern donbas region where moscow may launch a new offensive in the coming weeks. joining us now with more on that reporting is pentagon correspondent for the "washington post." karin, thanks for being on. i understand some of these weapons that are being sent, and if you can maybe give us more specifics here, they're going to require some training. i just want to get a sense of the timeline, when the white

house decides to send weapons. what does it take to get them into the hands of the ukrainians and being used against the russians? >> sure. well, generally speaking, the track record thus far has been once the announcement is formally made, which it has not been yet. this is still a preliminary document we've been reporting on at this stage. once the final decision is made and the order to send that out is given, it's only taken them about four days to be able to get that material over to europe. usually places like poland, which are nearer to the ukrainian border. you add another day or two on to transfer those into ukrainian hands. we're talking about a week's turnaround time, which is, i think, the fastest the united states ever managed to do these sorts of distributions. so we're talking about a fairly quick timeline. the decision making process right now is still ongoing, and that's where you often see this tension between what the united states is willing to do and what the ukrainians want. to give you a sense of that, yesterday, we were reporting the contours that were emerging

around this $750 million package. it seemed the centerpieces of it were really going to be the mi-17 helicopters, attack helicopters, that can let you take out certain russian targets. c-drones. overnight, a pentagon official came out and said, actually, no, there's not going to be mi-17s as part of the package. we had to update our reporting. so if you look at the stuff being shared in government circles, it gives you a sense of what they think the threats are likely going to be. they'll have to face it. also, a sense of, you know, the skiddishness about exactly what we're going to send and put into ukrainian hands for a variety of reasons. >> yeah. so what are the reasons why you wouldn't send helicopters? what do we know about what actually is being sent? >> well, we know there's going to be additional things like javelins, which have proven to be helpful for the ukrainians. the ukrainians have been raising a clamor for a long time for more air power. attack helicopters, mi-17s, are soviet origin. it'd be easier for them to learn to fly them or they know how to

fly them. also less risk of them potentially posing a greater security risk if they fall into russian hands. but the united states has a limited supply of those. most of our mi-17s come from just having been leftover from the afghanistan war, basically. it is not clear exactly what was going to be drawn from or what the stores were they were going to use. to use c-drones and other sorts of drones, we also reported the ukrainian ambassador to the united states had direct conversations with the head of a firm that produces predator and repo drones. drones have been critical for helping ukraine gain some sort of over ground advantage in taking out russian targets. so have attack helicopters. obviously, it's been several weeks ukrainians have been asking for war planes, like migs, which we've chosen not to create the three-way funneling chain that would be necessary to get to them. but this is the back and forth.

this is the negotiation often ongoing, as the ukrainians state what they want and need, and the west takes a cost-benefit analysis, of what is likely to be a provocation, or what will be more efficient in various regions of ukraine, and to try to send what we think is going to be the most bang for your buck. the most punch, basically, in trying to help the ukrainians get a better advantage against the invading russians. >> pentagon correspondent for the "washington post," thank you so much for your reporting this morning. >> richard haass, as we look at the latest debate going on and look at the latest shipments, i think we should stop, at least i'll stop, you may disagree, but i'll stop right here for a second and talk about what a masterful job the biden administration has done over the past six weeks. of course, you and i were both harshly critical of him after afghanistan. we've been critical of what happened with the french deal. there have been a lot of growing pains in this administration,

but i've just got to say, he has people chirping at him from both sides constantly. the same group of people that were saying in 2004, let's liberate the entire world at the barrel of the u.s. gun. let's rid the world of tyranny in all four corners. just ridiculous willsonian overreach. now, the same people are saying, we done worry about world war iii. now is our time, march to moscow, basically. he started with reluctant allies. he started with a situation -- the administration started with a situation that was supposed to end very quickly. i must say, at least in my view, he has worked this, walked the tight rope time and time again as people keep telling him to do more which could provoke world war iii. i have to say, at this point, i suppose we could send more. i suppose we could have sent more six weeks ago.

we are where we are now because of the courage of the ukrainian fighters and because of u.s. firepower, whether it is directly from us or channelled through other nato countries. that's just my take. i think historians are going to look back and say, after one screw-up after another over the past 20 years, a commander in chief actually managed an international crisis well. >> joe, i would agree. he gets high marks. this indirect strategy of helping ukraine militarily, the sanctions, strengthening nato, all this looks good. you know, as you know, i've had problems all along with some of the rhetoric which set goals either that were beyond our means, like regime change, or would complicate any chance to get into the war by calling putin a war criminal, now genocide. we're also at an interesting point. there is one other consideration here when it comes to arming ukraine. this might sound counterintuitive, but i think there is a big question, what are we trying to accomplish?

let me just say, there is a range of potential outcomes. are we trying to bring about a stalemate? are we trying to prevent russia from making inroads? are we trying to push russia back, to get them all the way back inside russian territory and out of ukraine? i think these are big questions. as you think this through, then the issue is the more successful ukraine is on the ground, this big battle to come, does that increase the odds putin might introduce chemical weapons or, god forbid, nuclear weapons and so forth? i think we're at a moment where we have to think through exactly what's our definition of success at this point? what are we trying to accomplish? i don't think it is quite as obvious or as black and white as a lot of the conversation is here. >> joining us a big board right now -- >> richard -- >> oh. >> richard, really quickly, how is that a question? isn't the point to push the russians back? i mean, what, is there a discussion being made behind the scenes that we only go halfway? >> i think there is a question, mika, of if the goal is to end

the war on terms that ukraine can accept, we need to have a straightforward conversation with zelenskyy. back to where we were before 2014. what are we thinking of the donbas. what are we thinking of crimea? i think there is a range of views, let me put it that way. the atrocities. the same question to you, six weeks ago, are we trying to do more? it is a question to raise. >> let's be clear. people don't want to hear this, but we're not going to have vladimir putin's regime shutting down like the soviets shut down in 1991. we're not going to have a uss

missouri assigning like we had at the end of world war ii. unless the russians decide that vladimir putin is no longer going to run russia. vladimir putin is not going -- going to run russia after this horrible war is over. if anyone thinks he is not going to use chemical weapons if we push russian troops into russia and try to break up his regime, then they're dreaming. they're risking a world war, a nuclear war that, i'm sorry, i'm not signed in for. i don't think 90% of americans will be signed in for. willie, as we said from the beginning, even before this began, it is going to require extraordinary diplomatic work to get putin an off-ramp, to get him out of ukraine, to get him out of this hot war, and to

prevent him using tactical nuclear weapons, which he threatened to use time and time again, which is now actually official russian military policy. we've got to come face-to-face with this. we're not dealing with gorbachev. we're dealing with a guy who -- just look at all the hell he's unleashed. one man is responsible for all this suffering. anybody that doesn't think he won't go further is dreaming. >> without question. the question is what is the face-saving off-ramp. what could it look like? how could he possibly declare victory given the humiliation he already suffered in ukraine? there is a piece about the white house preparing for what joe and richard were talking about, which is the potential use of chemical weapons on the battlefield. what are the plans, and what might the response be? >> it'd be a dramatic escalation in the war, if russia were to do that. first, a step back. a few days ago, there were ukrainians who claimed that some chemical weapons may have been

used in mariupol. this far-right group said that a drone dropped some chemicals on them. that has not been confirmed, it's not been verified, not by the u.s. nor by the ukrainian government. they've been usually quick to promote, when they can, to say, look, there is evidence of russian atrocity. they haven't done that. everyone has been proceeding carefully here. it takes some time. officials reminding me in the last day or so that even in syria, where chemical weapons were used, it often took time to verify that. those investigations are still ongoing. they want to make sure to underscore that it's not been proven yet. were russia to go down that path, it would change this war dramatically. the u.s. is preparing. as we report today, they've had a series of exercises, tabletop exercises as to what the response would be. the key word, proportional. of course, the president and his team have said they will respond, quote, in kind if russia were to do that. that does not mean the u.s. would use chemical weapons in return. rather, there would be drastic steps taken and escalation on

response. it'll depend on what chemical weapons are used. let's be clear, all chemical weapons are terrible, but there is a difference between a phosphorous thing versus sarin gas dropped on a school. >> what is a proportionate response to chemical weapons? >> one thing would be the sanctions front, would it finally be to get the germans to shut off imports of gas? russia is making over $500 million a day. it is floating this war effort. i think we should have an agreement now and communicate it to the russians. if you cross this threshold, guess what? i think that might be something that the germans, who are increasingly divided about how tough to be, that might be something that would resonate in the german political space. militarily, it is not something we provide in the way of -- we're providing a lot already. the bigger issue is whether there can be direct involvement.

can you see a situation, not open ended, not a no fly zone, but attacking positions as a one-time attack, to say, if you cross this threshold, it goes beyond the point of tolerance. >> i want to talk quickly about oil. there's been a lot written over the past 24, 48 hours about the saudis. republicans saying biden has to be tougher and needs to condemn the saudis even more. i know a lot of democrats are saying the same thing. with all due respect to them, they need to -- they need to open their eyes and see what's going on. saudi is a bad regime. yes, he's done horrific things. so did joe stalin when we teamed up with joe stalin in world war ii. he'd killed about 10 million of his own people. after 9/11, we said we had to grow up and deal with bad actors to win this war on terror. well, right now, richard, we

seem to be in this -- in this no man's land with the saudis. with the uae. we've got to figure out, do we want them to be soviet states and states of communist china for the next 40 years, or do we want to go in and figure out how to get them working with the community of nations? because right now, it's a little of this, a little of that. it's leading to disastrous policies. they don't think we're doing enough to defend them against missile attacks going into saudi arabia. you know, a lot of different things going. we need to figure that relationship out. we need to figure our relationship out with a lot of other less-than-stellar actors who are not democracies, who are right now on the fence on whether they want to support put putin or the united states. starting with the saudis, what

do we do? >> i agree 100%. i would have said it before the ukraine crisis. ibs could have been running the country 40, 50 years, we can't have a non-relationship for that time with a country that important, particularly given that iran during that period, probably sooner than later, will reach the threshold of nuclear weapons. iran is already destabilizing the region, providing missiles to the houthis attacking both the uae and saudi arabia. this crisis made it clear why we need saudi arabiian energy output. how do we disagree on human rights issues and still have a strategic relationship? foreign policy can't be about one issue. i'll get in trouble for this. it can't just be about virtue signaling. we have to be strategic. how do we disagree with the saudis on some issues but still have a relationship with others? by the way, the same principle applies to china and other

countries. we don't have the luxury of one-directional, one-issue foreign policy. a lot of these countries matter. we have to figure out, how do we work with them on some issues several days of the week and disagree other days of the week? >> when it comes to the middle east, we have to choose between iran and the saudis. it's that simple. as far as iran goes, i mean, the very same people that are saying we can't deal with the saudis are the same people trying to negotiate with the iranians and trying to remove, you know, the revolutionary guard from terrorist lists. iran has been the epicenter of terrorism since 1979. i'm sorry, we're picking the wrong side here. saudi arabia, for all of its problems, and there are so many problems, it seems to me a better bet when we're trying to figure out how to push putin back into his corner and how to

drive oil prices down, so putin doesn't make billions and billions and billions of dollars every day to kill more ukrainians. this seems like a fairly simple choice to make versus iran, who, again, has been the epicenter of terror since 1979. >> look, i agree with you on this. look, we're paying an awful lot, potentially, for a deal with iran, which would buy us a couple years on the nuclear front, not more. it would actually make iran's ability to destabilize the region. it'd increase their ability because of all the resources that would flow to them. plus, there's one other positive with the saudis. i think it is a question of when, not if. the saudis would be interested in normalizing relations with israel. this is a place for some creative diplomacy. can we put together a package with saudi arabia that gets them to help with energy, gets them to move toward israel, and we'll have a common front against iran. yet, we'd have to figure out how do we compartmentalize or deal with the issues of the past and

present on human rights? part of this is going to require the administration get over its singular focus on reentering a -- signing a new nuclear agreement with iran. >> my god. >> the price of doing it is going to outweigh the benefits. >> the obsession with that bad deal continues to haunt u.s. foreign policy. it has for years, and it continues into this administration. >> we can talk about that bad deal a little later. >> my gosh. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> it never goes away. it never goes away. >> i have so many things i could say right now. former new york city police commissioner bill bratton is standing by. the manhunt under way right now for the person who opened fire in a crowded subway car. plus, we'll hear from the mta on subway security. and new york city mayor eric adams is our guest. also ahead, inflation on

another 40-year high. steve rattner joins us with charts on the soaring prices. we also have clint at the big board to tell us what's happening in ukraine on the battlefield, when "morning joe" returns. turns. odding... ...because i know everything about furniture ...but with the business side... ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff, and know where your business stands. new business? no problem. success starts with intuit quickbooks. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform.

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all those touched by that trauma. we're grateful for all the first responders who jumped into action, including civilians, civilians who didn't hesitate to help a fellow passenger and try to shield them. my team has been in touch with mayor adams and new york's police commissioner, and the department of justice and fbi are working closely with the nypd on the ground. we're going to continue to stay

in close contact with new york authorities. as we learn more about this situation over the coming hours and days. >> president biden opened up his planned remarks in iowa yesterday by addressing the worst shooting in the history of the new york city subway. a man hunt is still under way this morning for the person who opened fire on that crowded subway car during yesterday's rush hour. police are calling 62-year-old frank james a, quote, person of interest. all of the victims are expected to survive. the two youngest victims were between 12 and 16 years old. new york governor kathy hochul visited them and their families last night at hospital. earlier, she made a point of riding the subway following the attack and praised new yorkers for their strength. >> we believe that if many person is left in the state, we'll use our connections and relationships we have with nine neighboring states to bring this person to justice.

we hope this will be resolved soon. new yorkers want to get on with life. i took the subway over here earlier this evening to let new yorkers know, we appreciate their resiliency, how tough they are, that they still keep coming on this subway. i was really grateful to see that new yorkers cannot be kept down. >> joining us now, former new york city police commissioner bill bratton. mike barnicle joins the conversation, as well. commissioner, thanks for being here. we were talking on the break about new york city being resilient. mike and i separately road the 1 train down, packed at rush hour. last night, packed. people got back on with their lives. unfortunately, it's what they do when they've seen this trauma. based on everything we know about this person of interest, who do you suspect he is? do we have any sense of motive at this point? >> based on the view of some of his social media postings, this is a seriously emotionally disturbed individual living in an alternate reality.

in terms of his motivation, this seems to be a grudge against mayor adams based on some of his writing, if you will. so police are going to work aggressively to try and apprehend him as soon as possible. has the best police squad working on it with the u.s. marshals and fbi. hopefully they'll scoop him up quickly because he is a problem. >> new york city police department is so good and efficient, that we've become accustomed to them finding these guys very, very quickly. one of the cameras, we're told, wasn't working at that subway station. almost 24 hours later, where do you suspect the nypd is in pursuit of this guy, who doesn't have ties with new york city and could be out of state? >> that's the point, the search expanded dramatically. he has no ties to the city based on review of his social media. he could be anywhere. the vehicle you mentioned was

recovered, but that's where the coordination with the u.s. marshals, federal agencies, they're great at hunting down these people. i fully expect that he will be apprehended very, very quickly. >> commissioner bratton a z i don't -- as you know, the new york city subway station is the beating heart of this metropolitan area. it is almost impossible to protect. but what do you do now that this particular event will sort of psychologically hinder a lot of people in terms of their usage of the subway? what can you do? what can be done to make the subway safer than it already is? >> well, eric adams, the new mayor, has been attempting to do that. they put in an additional 1,000 officers, the transit police. they have a lot of experience there. i was 1990s chief there. i'm intimate with it. 510 car trains running at any time. 3.5 million riders a day. you can't protect it all, all the time, but you can work with

the public. see something, say something. mayor adams put 1,000 additional officers, plus he has regular patrol officers in the precincts who are going into the stations for walkthroughs. there's a lot that's been done. the crime level is nowhere near where it was before. back then, there was 60 to 70 serious crimes a day. this is a different population, 30 years later. this population is used to safety, up to 2018, this was the safest large city in the world. it changed dramatically in the last couple of years. good news is that it has not deteriorated so badly that it can't come back. we came back in 1990/'91. it can come back as evidenced by what you saw last night riding the 1. people will use the system. one, they have to. but the mayor is going to work very hard with his commissioner to provide enough police visibility, as well as the new technologies that are available. camera systems, et cetera, to basically continue to make this

a safer system. >> both the mayor and governor yesterday were quick to say that they did not believe this was an act of terrorism, but they thought it was still terrifying. one of the things was the idea of smoke canisters and gas masks. you saw the footage, people running and screaming. the end of the day, it is still a crime committed with a gun. we heard the president trying to crack down on ghost guns earlier with executive action. there is a limit. there is no appetite for federal gun legislation right now. what can this city and other big cities do across the country that are seeing a spike in violence, spike in shootings, what can they do to get the guns off the street? >> there is a crime epidemic in america, a lot affair with guns. new york is working very hard on that issue. the mayor has formed the anti-crime unit. highly trained officers working closely with the federal government to deal now with the plastic gun line. used to be the iron pipeline coming from the southern states, where guns would be purchased. now, ups and fedex are delivering it right to your

door. the president is attempting to move on that with the appointment of a new atf director. hopefully congress will get off their butt and confirm him, instead of dragging out the appointment as they usually do. new york has been aggressive in leading the way, however, in trying to deal proactively with this issue. even as recently as last night, four more shootings, five people shot in the space of a couple hours last night in new york. this crime epidemic is not going away soon. it'll take hard work to push it back. >> commissioner bratton, i'm so glad you said what you said, which is, was, crime was worse 20 years ago. you know what, air travel was much more dangerous 20 years ago. we're not going back to where we were 20 years ago because the people of new york city aren't going to accept what everybody accepted in 1990, before your great work. let me ask you this, mayor adams, obviously, has the right instincts. he is trying to push forward.

he is getting resistance in some corners. how are other new york city and new york state officials working with them, or how are they standing in the way? what is the biggest challenge now? who needs to get out of the way so mayor adams can make new york city safer again? >> the legislation of albany, the city council, the progressive wings. he has an uphill struggle. the movement in this state has been disastrous. 2018 was the safest year in the history of new york city. 2019, the legislature in the state passed criminal justice reform. it's been a mess ever since. the mayor is in the right place. he's moved to center. he knows what he wants to do. he's the right man at the right time. boy, he's not getting much support from albany, the legislature. he has a city council that does not like the nypd. it is an uphill struggle. what the public needs to do is

start supporting this mayor against those that are really trying to thwart what he is trying to do, make new york once again the safest large city in the world. it was that once. it can be that again. but it is going to take a lot of work. >> we're going to talk to mayor adams in a few minutes on this show. before i let you go, a semantic question. this guy is called a person of interest versus a suspect. what is the distinction? >> they have not the ability at the moment to put his hand on that gun. the analysis, fingerprints, all that will be recovered, match it up. he's been arrested in the past. might have fingerprints on file. once they're able to ffectively put his hand on the weapon, they can move it into the suspect category. hopefully he'll have been arrested by that time. >> they're pursuing that man as we speak. former police commissioner bill bratton, nobody better to walk us through this. thank you for being here. appreciate it. >> thank you. turning back to ukraine now, let's go to the maps.

national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc, clint watts joins us with where the fighting is happening today. if you can show us the latest on the battlefield, and tell us about the weaponry that the ukrainians have versus what they need, from what you can see. >> that's right, mika. so some updates that happened overnight. mariupol, we've been talking about this besieged city for several weeks now. the russians continued to advance in. interestingly, just some reports in open source over the last hour or two, some of the ukrainian forces that had been divided essentially unified. why that is important -- >> wow. >> -- in mariupol, everyone thinks the russians will still take it, but the longer russian forces stay bogged down here trying to take mariupol, the less time they'll have to essentially redeploy. that frees up time here for the bigger fight, which is exactly what we think we'll see, which is here in the donbas. this is the convoy that essentially has come down from

belgrade. they're trying to move to slovyansk. lots of logistical problems, and there's still more questions this morning about the will to fight. will russian military troops will ready to get back in? there's not a lot of confidence they'll be able to push all the combat power in. separately, i would say the one thing to watch is throughout this area, today, tomorrow, through the next week, intense and direct fires throughout this donbas region. what you're going to see, the russians trying to bring this group together, bring this axis to izyum, link them no slovyansk. this is the key of what they're trying to do, cut off different portions of donbas incrementally. every time they do that, they can control a pocket of ukrainian military, force they will to fight like in maiupol

or surrender. the last thing is the big picture down in kherson. kherson was the first major city the russians took, coming up ott of crimea. you can see here what we have is ukrainian counterattacks pretty consistency. the russians have been able to establish bases in at least two locations. one at the kherson air base, building up logistics. i think that really points to what is the next phase of this. we could probably see this movement here, essentially moving north. that's what richard haass wuss talking about earlier. what is donbas, in putin's words? it is not known. we believe this is the obvious, this is the donbas as it is known on our maps. but what if he tries to take a larger swath of that over time? >> all right. clint watts, thank you very much. we appreciate it. coming up, democratic senator joe manchin is blaming the biden administration for rising inflation after yesterday's number reached a 40-year high. steve rattner joins us with

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all right. 52 past the hour. live look at the white house as the sun is trying to come up over washington. the other major story we're following this morning is the inflation rate, reaching a 40-year high. here's nbc news chief white house correspondent kristen welker with the details. >> reporter: america's unrelenting inflation crisis keeps getting worse, with news its accelerated to 8.5%, a 41-year high. prices surging across the board. gas prices up 48% over last

year. food prices jumping nearly 9%, including meat, poultry, fish, and eggs spiking nearly 14%. housing costs surging, too, with rents up 5%. in pennsylvania, school bus driver rene schultz says soaring grocery bills have left her struggling to feed her family. now, she's turning to a food pantry. >> it's made it difficult. sometimes you have to make a choice on, you know, what bills are not going to get paid so you can make sure you have food on the table. >> reporter: and in california, plumber louis ray says the cost of parts have surged 40% to 60%. what's the toughest part about this moment and the increased prices? >> the toughest part is just not knowing what the future holds, actually. i'm not just a business owner x but i'm a human being. i have a household and a car loan. >> reporter: prices for gas this

summer predicted to be the highest since 2014. biden is boosting the sale of ethanol gasoline to alleviate pain at the pump. again blaming vladimir putin's ukraine invasion. >> i'm doing everything within my power by executive orders to bring down the price and address the putin price hike. >> reporter: in reality, inflation has been soaring above 5% for nearly a year. our latest nbc news poll shows just 6% of americans blame rising prices on the russian invasion of ukraine. 38% blame president biden and his policies. the president facing criticism from republicans and a key democrat, senator joe manchin writing, "the federal reserve and the administration failed to act fast enough." calling the response, quote, half measures. >> all right. thank you so much to nbc's kristen welker with that report. let's bring in right now former treasury official and economic analyst steve rattner. steve, just a little surprised that joe manchin is blaming joe

biden for inflation. obviously, if they'd passed the $6 trillion bbb bills, obviously, there would be a lot more to blame there. but, i mean, i'm curious, how do you break it down? we have, obviously, as you've said, $2 trillion sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be spent. people are rushing back into the economy. we always knew it was going to be hot -- the economy was going to be hot. is it the biden administration's fault? is it the fed's fault? was it politically feasible for the fed to take dramatic measures two, three months ago? >> i think it is a combination of issues, joe, obviously. i think you certainly have to put the fed near the top of the list for putting $6 trillion literally into the economy in the form of low interest rates and buying bonds and thing like that. i don't you do have to fault a bit the biden administration and the size of the rescue packages

they tried to get passed. put aside the ones that got passed. there's something over $2 trillion in consumer bank accounts they haven't been able to spend due to the pandemic that's now coming out. that's a lot of what is driving this. obviously, there is bad luck. ukraine certainly plays a role in all this. there are a number of places that play in. what manchin is trying to do is basically preempt another rescue package and make clear he thinks the next rescue package needs a component of deficit reduction in it. i would agree with that. it is time to start dealing with the deficit as part of trying to bring down the pressure of inflation. >> you also agreed with manchin that we couldn't pass a $6 trillion bbb bill. even $3 trillion would, again, add too much heat to the economy. now, we as consumers can be grateful manchin did stop that. i just would like to know what president you've ever met that would have been able to stop inflation from going up as we

exited covid and as a russian war -- as russia began a war that caused gas prices to spike. i'm not saying it's not part of the administration's fault for taking their eye off of the ball a little bit on what they were asking for, but they never got what they were asking for. it is sort of hard to blame bbb, their requests -- inflation on their requests for bbb because they never got any of that. >> that's why i said the principal responsibility belongs with the fed. they did get the $1.9 million american rescue plan, which sent out stimulus checks at a time when even back then, we knew pretty much the last thing the economy needed was more stimulus checks. i do think there is some responsibility on the part of the biden administration. as i said, the war in ukraine was definitely an unanticipated consequence. would have been better if we hadn't already started some inflation going.

yes, definitely ukraine was -- is a principal culprit, as you'll see in some of the numbers i can show you. >> steve, let's look at the first chart. soaring prices outpace wages right now. what are you looking at? >> kristen welker gave the headline numbers. i'll try to fill in pieces around it. one of the more interesting and disturbing parts of this is you had the 8.5% inflation she mentioned. it wasn't part of her piece, but the fact that wages, while they have gone up, they've not kept up. if you look at the turquoise line, going back to 1997, and you could go back further, the data isn't quite as good, the turquoise line which is wages has generally stayed above the black line, which is inflation. meaning consumers are getting an increase in their spending power. what's happened here is even though wages are now going up at 6%, which is the highest they've gone up in decades, the 8.5% obviously is more than that. so you have consumers losing ground on their purchasing power, and that's a big deal of

what you see going on out there. >> the second is fascinating, your next chart, showing how broad this is. there is focus on gas, but there's groceries and rent, obviously. there's appliances. this is such a deep and wide inflation spike. >> exactly, willie. two pieces to this. there is the big gasoline piece. gasoline alone was 50% of the increase last month in inflation. gasoline is now $4.20 across the country. it was $2.60 a year ago. as you said, that's only part of the picture. what i put here are a few almost random products that people buy all the time. if you're buying furniture, you're paying 16% more. by the way, if you look at the bottom, you can barely see, the tiny turquoise bars, that's what the inflation was in these categories before all this happened. 16% versus 0% for inflation. 13% versus 0% for chicken. 12% versus minus 1% for major appliances. peanut butter is going to cost

you 9% more relative to minus 1%. >> i've noticed that, actually. >> it is very broad based. airfare is up 20% over a year ago. more to come. wheat is up 39%. corn is up 19%. there's more still coming through the system. >> the interest thing about the groceries is, not only visibly, actually, the prices are much higher now than they were a year ago, but the scarcity of some item, the pipeline providing, well, the goods. >> it is very hard to get stuff. the famous supply chain problems, which partly are true supply chain problems and partly are excess demand, have created shortages. you have a lot of stuff. let's turn to consumers. this has implications for, obviously, individual americans as well as political implications. so on the left, you can see the consumers expect inflation to be 6.6% over the coming 12 months. if you asked them 14 months ago,

they thought 3%. this is all absorbed by consumers, and they've become pessimistic about that. you can see it more clearly on the chart on the right which is consumer sentiment, which has hit a modern low. as you see on the chart on the right, 81% of americans think the economy will be in recession this year. >> there is no way for the biden administration to sugar coat this. everyone is feeling this, whether the gas station, grocery store, wherever they are. they're trying the line, the putin gas hike. how are they handling this? >> that's the line we've heard from democrats. we'll see. polling suggestions that americans are willing to pay a little bit more at the gas pump right now to help ukrainians in their war effort. if this goes on for months and months, that could change. certainly, inflation could be a defining issue for the midterms this year. the white house is nervous about this. everything costs more right now.

supply chain issues are only going to grow. the covid outbreak in china is having an impact. there will be issues at the mexican border with more migrants coming across there, as well. we heard him yesterday with theette -- the ethanol fuel announcement. what more can they do, steve, and how much is about interest rates? >> there's not much more they can do. they're trying. a lot of this is political. they're releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, and they have a modern impact on it. it is good you mention interest rates. because what the inflation numbers mean is interest rates are going to go up faster and sooner than people would have guessed, even a few weeks ago. mortgage rates, which are very sensitive, are up in the high 4%, close to 5% for 30-year mortgages. just an incredibly short period of time. it is clear now that the fed is probably going to have to raise rates, not a quarter of a point at its coming meetings but maybe half a point, something it only does in extreme circumstances, so, yeah, consumers are also going to feel the bite of higher

rates. of course, savers will get the benefit of higher rates. people borrowing money are going to keep that in interest rates, as well. >> we're just past the top of the hour. 7:02 on the east coast. we have steve rattner talking about the story that's at the top of the "wall street journal" today. inflation spiking. this spike continues. we're also going to be talking about vladimir putin saying peace is not at hand any time soon. he is expanding his -- or he is actually retracting what his goals are to the donbas. steve rattner, before we let you go, and before we get to the top stories, i've got to ask you, we're talking about -- just this massive, massive shortage, shortages in certain areas because there's such a demand. again, it's this pent-up demand. i talked to andrew ross sorkin.

we've seen it the past couple weeks. airports are insane. i've never seen it like this before. jetblue just -- they can't handle the rush. other airports can't handle the rush. again, you have in the middle of the week, in clear weather, one plane after another being canceled just because of overwhelming demand. a lot of pilots and flight attendants not showing up. >> yeah, that is another piece of the puzzle, joe, which is the fact that people, the so-called great resignation of a lot of people leaving their jobs. we unfilled jobs in the country. even if everyone looking for a job took a job, we'd have 5 million, plus or minus, unfilled jobs. it is companies trying to hire, demand in the system, as well as people not going back to work, either because they're getting close to retirement or they still have child care or health concerns or whatever.

yeah, so the airplane thing is a good example of what's happening. huge demand. airfare is up 24% at the moment from a year ago. airlines not being able to provide the supply because they can't necessarily get the pilots and flight attendants and ground crew and all the people they need to make the planes fly. >> steve rattner, thank you very, very much. we'll get to our top stories right now. new york's governor vows to crackdown on crime as police search for the person who opened fire on a packed subway train during the morning rush. >> we are sick and tired of reading headlines about crime, whether they're mass shootings or the loss of a teenage girl or a 13-year-old. it has to stop. i'm committing the full resources of our state to fight this surge of crime, this insanity that is seizing our city because we want to get back to normal. >> well, then support mayor adams and what he is trying to do. >> there is a person of interest

in that mass shooting, but, so far, no arrest. we'll have the latest on the manhunt and the condition of those injured in the attack. mayor eric adams is our guest, just moments away. plus, president biden calls out vladimir putin's genocide in ukraine. he's already pegged the russian leader as a war criminal, as the kremlin inflicts yet more carnage on civilians. as for putin, after multiple rounds of peace talks with ukrainian officials, the russian president says those negotiations have hit, quote, a dead end. in a joint news conference yesterday with one of his only remaining allies -- >> by the way, you know it's bad when the only person who will hang out with you in a press conference is lukashenko. >> pretty bad, yeah. >> a guy who was driven out of office, or almost driven out of office, and had to chase all of his competitors out because he is so hated in his own country. >> president lukashenko, president vowed with him to press on with the invasion,

pledging that russia's military operation will continue until its full completion. >> or until the last russian soldier quits. >> "the new york times" reports the operation's goals, he said, centered on the donbas region in eastern ukraine, where pro-russia separatists have been fighting since 2014. it was the first time that mr. putin himself had effectively defined a more limited aim for the war. focusing on control of the donbas and not on all of ukraine. that is a shift, which mr. putin and his subordinates have said should not even be an independent country. the russian leader also blamed ukraine for peace talks failing, claiming that moscow has no choice but to press on after he said russia was falsely accused of committing war crimes. >> he doesn't even believe his own lines anymore. richard haass is still with us, the president of the counsel on foreign relations. also, retired u.s. army colonel,

serving 26 years in the armed services, including as executive officer to general david petraeus during the iraq war. >> also with us, professor of history at new york university, ruth ben-ghiat. the author of "strong men," mussolini to the president. good to have you all with us this hour. >> richard, quick response to what you heard from vladimir putin with his dear, dear friend lukashenko, saying that no peace at hand right now, but their goals are now limited to the east, to the donbas region. what is the impact of that? >> the impact of that is we're heading into what will be the most intense phase of fighting that the war has seen. then we don't know after that, joe, whether we'll have the basis for a negotiated settlement, or as i think is more likely, we'll simply have a winding down, not completely,

but a reduction in the intensity of the fighting and this becomes something of an open conflict. i don't see a basis where you can put together a formula that both ukraine and russia can sign onto, given all that's happened, given the domestic political realities of both sides. i think we need to gear ourselves psychologically, politically, militarily, economically, to the possibility that this now becomes part of the architecture, if you will, of ukraine and europe for some time to come. we have to conduct our foreign policy against this backdrop. hope i'm wrong and we do end up with a formal end to the war. i think the odds are better than even that we don't. >> i'm not being gloom when i say this, the russians actually have to win a couple battles before he can even get to the table. right now, of course, there's no evidence that they're going to have any more success in the east than they had around kyiv, especially when you have the ukrainians rushing down from the

west to help out. colonel, let me ask you, what is the battlefield looking like? do you have any evidence that these troops who are demoralized, who are exhausted, who seem to be outgunned in many respects, certainly much better tactically, any evidence that the russians are going to be able to subdue them any time soon? >> not really. i mean, you cannot coach desire. the russian soldiers simply have not been up to the task of fighting what is not necessarily a major power, ukraine. the ukrainians are all in on this conflict. provided they get the right weapons from us and the west, they can actually win this conflict. they push the russians back toward kharkiv and kyiv, and they can win in the south, as well. they're going to need far more advanced armaments than we've been giving them to this state. the city of mariupol is still contested. the russians have not made any sort of gains along the line of

contact in the donbas. it remains to be seen whether they can do so with the new troops they're bringing in. if those troops are coming from the defeated forces around kyiv, i wouldn't expect them to fight very well. they didn't fight very well the first time. >> colonel, for all of putin's continued bravado and his sort of preposterous claims that things are going exactly how he planned, he has to be stunned on how this has gone the last month. he thought he'd roll into kyiv and install a new government. instead, he is on his heels, in retreat and committing atrocities as we does so. with this shift of focus on the eastern part of the country, do you believe putin is done with the rest of ukraine? in other words, would he ever make another attempt to go back and achieve that larger goal of taking over the entire country? >> i think it is unlikely, not unless he gets substantial support from within the ukrainian people, which is not going to be forthcoming. 87% of them in a recent poll think they can win this

conflict. i'm actually in agreement with that. i think putin has realized that he overreached, and he's trying to scale back his objectives to what is feasible and give him some bargaining power in future peace negotiations. quite frankly, i agree with richard haass. this is going to be a long war. ukraine is not going to give in. there is no reason for them to give up a major part of their country to a person that will not really give them peace in the long run anyway. >> colonel, given that -- the difficulty of it is, indeed, going to be a long war, can you talk about the logistical skill and difficulties involved in the resupply mission, especially to those trapped in mariupol? the ukrainian army trapped in mariupol, resupplying them. >> unfortunately, they're not going to be resupplied. right now, they're surrounded. the russians own the black sea.

i'm afraid that mariupol is going to fall at some point. i think the ukrainians probably have this cooked into their projections already. if they don't, it'll be a nice surprise. given the fact the russians have dominance in that area and ukrainians simply cannot get more reinforcements to support their defense there, i think it is inevitable that the city will fall. >> professor ben-ghiat, you were tweeting in march purges would be coming in the future. first of all, what did you make of vladimir putin's sort of countenance yesterday in his comments and what he said? what do you think is happening inside his head? also, if you could imagine for me the possibility of what the colonel just said could be true, that militarily if ukraine could win this, what would that

portend for putin's behavior? >> yeah, i wasn't at all surprised that putin said that peace talks are dead and war must go on. he also said that it was inevitable that the war had to happen because russia would be attacked. this is because autocrats don't negotiate with democratic nations they'd like to annihilate. they create situations of crisis, then they try to exploit that. you know, just as putin has no regard for the rule of law at home, he doesn't care about the international protocols of diplomacy or the rules of war. unfortunately, it wouldn't be surprising if we see him employing chemical weapons. you know, he's reduced the scope of the war perhaps to save face. that's another autocrat trick. he has to declare victory. he can never lose, or else he is in trouble at home. but would go all out using an arsenal he's used in syria and

other places. we have to, you know, remember that all of the war crimes and use of creme cal weapons that he's used over the years have helped him to succeed, in his mind, and also to amass more power at home. so what we see as atrocities, he sees as success. >> everyone stay where you are. we want to turn briefly now. the manhunt under way this morning for the person who opened fire in a crowded new york city subway car during yesterday's rush hour. police are calling a man they're connecting to the shooter a person of interest. he is 62-year-old frank james. nypd identified him 12 hours after the shooting. he rented a u-haul van in philadelphia, which was found yesterday afternoon 5 miles from the 36th street station where the shooting occurred. a key to the van, along with a credit card with james' name on it, were found at the scene. officers also found a handgun used, three magazine clips, a hatchet, and a bag filled with

fireworks, gasoline, and two unused smoke canisters. police say james has addresses in wisconsin and philadelphia, but it is not clear what, if any, connection he has to new york. joining us now is the mayor of new york city, eric adams. he, of course, previously served as brooklyn borough president and spent time as a transit officer with the nypd. mr. mayor, good to have you with us this morning. what is the latest on the search for this man? >> i was updated this morning by my law enforcement officials. there is no new information. as you know, a national search is for him, a person of interest, and we are going to continue to close the loop around him and bring him in. continue the investigation into this horrific act against innocent new yorkers. >> do you know of any connection this morning, mr. mayor, to new york city? we know he has addresses in wisconsin and pennsylvania, but nothing directly, except for some of these videos he posted

to youtube. in some cases, speaking directly to you, mr. mayor. what do we know about his connection to new york, and might it lead to a motive here? >> there is no additional information that is showing that connection at this time. we believe that he, as you indicated, purchased the van in philadelphia and brought the van here. started to, you know, get on the subway facility. took just a terrible, terrible action against innocent new yorkers. i want to tip my hat up to the new yorkers who responded and helped each other, including the first responders, our firefighters, police, and health care professionals. i believe they saved lives. >> do you believe, mr. mayor, that he acted alone, that he was a so-called lone wolf, or was this connected to anything else? should new yorkers be concerned on the subway this morning? >> well, there's no evidence that indicates at this time that

there was an accomplice. it appears as though he was operating alone. we're going to have police enforcement on our subway system. we'll have a real omni presence. we're asking new yorkers to be vigilant. we know how to do this. we've been here before during such devastating attacks against our city. we're having new yorkers if they see something, say something and do something. notify the local official there. we're going to have uniformed presence throughout the entire system. >> i'm sure, mr. mayor, you've seen some of these videos that have been unearthed the last 24 hours, of this man online. one of them, he says, mr. mayor, i'm a victim of your mental health program. can you make any sense of that? do you know what he is talking about there? >> not at all. you know, many people look at the mental health system, and they question some of the things that have happened throughout the generations. our goal is to fix our mental health system.

but it is clear that this individual wanted to create terror. we don't know his motivation to make a classification if this was a terrorist act or not. even without that designation, we know that he wanted to bring terror. to come on the system with a gas mask, with a gun, several clips as well as throwing a smoke bomb. it is clear he wanted to bring terror to our system. we're going to bring him to justice and have him prosecuted for his actions. >> mr. mayor, you ran to make new york city a safer place again and to address quality of life issues. you continue trying to do that. as former commissioner bratton said, you're facing severe resistance in the city, in the state legislature. yesterday, though, the governor of new york state held a press

conference and said that she would do everything she could to make new york a safer place. what can she do to help you in your ongoing mission to make new york city the safest big city again in the world? what more does she need to do to help you and help new yorkers get safe? >> well, the governor has been a real partner, and i'm going to continue to fight with her as we continue to move forward. we must deal with the overproliferation of guns. it is amazing, we have removed over 1,800 guns off our street in the last 3 1/2 months. think about that for a moment. the streets of new york, 10% of the guns were ghost guns. you heard me say over and over again, there are many rivers that see violence. you have to dam each river. it is not one river but all of them. we want to do our job on the street. we institute our anti-gun unit.

we're dealing with some of those feeders of crime, such as giving young people the opportunity they deserve. there is immediate need right now to open our courts. too many dangerous people are not going through the judicial system to serve their time. there is a revolving door in the criminal justice system this in city, this country, and it has to top. many people are repeated offenders. it is time for us to zero in and get serious about putting dangerous people in jail and not on our streets. >> you know, a lot of people talked about how important the subway system is to new york city. it also is, i think -- i've always believed it is a leading indicator. i mean, my parents would bring me to new york in the '70s. it was just dangerous in the '70s and the '80s. even into the early '90s. i remember coming back in the mid '90s being shocked at how clean, safe, and efficient the subway system was running by the

mid to late '90s. i know you want it to get back to that point. how does what happened the past 24 hours change your mission moving forward? does it actually -- do you think it'll drive home to your opponents trying to get your way, the importance of you doing what you need to do to make new york city's subways safe again? >> that's a great question. because during those periods of time, as you mentioned, the mid 80s, i became a transit police officer. i recall those stations. i recall the graffiti. i recall the violence and uncertainty in our system. you're right, it is the lifeblood of our city. it is a great equalizer that allows the wall street executive and the everyday new yorker who is trying to eke out a living to get to and from their place of employment or school. we must have a safe, reliable, and dependable subway system. there are many naysayers as we

attempt to clean up the encampments. get those who are homeless into wraparound services and zero in on crime. they're a small, numerical minority who are the loudest, who want to push back on our attempts to make sure our city is a safe, clean city. we're not going to succumb to their theory or loud noise. this is going to be a safe city, and the subway system is going to be a safe subway system. you have my commitment on that. we won't be distracted by this issue. we know that this hurts the mindset of many new yorkers who are afraid of what happened, but we are a resilient city. we've been here before. we're going through horrific issues as new york city. we're a target for bad acting people, but this city has always shown a level of resiliency. we're going to show it now, for this entire country to know we won't succumb to those who want to bring fear to our city.

>> mayor adams, let me follow up on the idea of making the subway safer. a lot of police officers were surged into the system last night in the wake of the shooting. is there any consideration of a more permanent, larger police presence in the subways? you mentioned yesterday perhaps installing metal detectors in the subway system. before, it was dismissed for not being financially feasible. >> one at a time. first, the surge in police officers. since january 6th, we've conducted over 265,000 infections of our subway system. we have moved away from a traditional model. not only do we have the police, the transit police personnel there, those officers assigned to the transit bureau, we've also used our patrol bureau. we've had people aboveground, off the vehicles, in the system, doing inspections.

with the gun detention devices, oftentimes when people hear of metal detecters, they immediately think of the airport model. there are new models being used at ball games, ballparks, hospitals, where you're not stopping to go through your belongings. you're simply walking through a device. i sent my deputy mayor of public safety to several conventions to look at the new technology out there. we're going to explore new technology to make new yorkers safe. we believe we have a technology that we can use in the subway system that many passengers are not even going to be aware that they're walking past a device that could detect weapons. we're excited about the possibilities. i'm not going to leave any legal technology off the table when it comes down to keeping new yorkers safe. >> all right. mayor eric adams, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. of course, as a manhunt is still

under way, we will continue to update our viewers on the very latest on this situation. also coming up after the break, we're going to continue our conversation with richard haass, retired u.s. army colonel peter mansoor, and professor of history at new york university ruth ben-ghiat. we're going to talk about the weapons headed to ukraine, the negotiations that may or may not be under way, and get inside the mindset of vladimir putin. we'll be right back.

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officials in ukraine say they've narrowly avoided a serious russian cyberattack targeting the country's power grid. had the attack been successful, it would have deprived nearly 2 million people of power. officials say the attack was scheduled to begin last week, as

many civilians were returning home from work. experts say the attempted hacking is among the most sophisticated cyberattacks of the war so far. still with us, retired army colonel peter mansoor. professor of history at new york university, ruth ben-ghiat. good to have you both. >> professor, i'm just curious, can you talk about the irony? you've studied this is much, but talk about the irony of how vladimir putin, being a strong man, setting himself up as this, just, traditional, classic strong man has made his military weaker, made his intel community weaker, has made his economy weaker, has made his society weaker. talk about the very things that leaders think they need to run a successful country are the very things that often undermine that country. >> yeah, it's incredible. i feel like what i talked about

in my book and laid out for, you know, previous leaders is -- we're living through it in real time. when somebody has had too much power for too long, they behave in predictable ways. it's why i've been able to predict a lot of what's gone on, unfortunately. i always believe i'll be wrong. they believe their own propaganda and get isolated. i think putin had inclinations he was at his peak and it'd be downhill eventually. so they do reckless things. like launching a war without adequately gaming it out with military elites. then they miscalculate, they overreach, and they get into trouble. so i'm seeing everything going on on the battlefield in relation to what's going on at home, so you see that he feels less secure and he starts to purge.

the autocrats golden rule in this late stage is always blame others for your mistakes. we see that going on. >> right. >> with him blaming his military and all the purges that are starting. >> can you also explain to our friends watching right now, so many people see the divisions that we have in the united states as weaknesses, us fighting each other. i know it's been extreme the past five years, but we've always had this talk about how much weaker we are because we're divided. can you talk about how strong man, how autocrats have always looked at a divided america and always seen it as a weakness? whether you talk about hitler, imperial japan, even osama bin laden said we were a paper tiger. whether you talk about vladimir putin. they see these divisions and think it means we're weaker

culturally, militarily. i remember before the war, talking about how the united states was going to get ensnarled in the jungles of panama. he is in a miami jail, like, three days later. can you talk about how they miscalculate, what happens in the united states and they see it as weakness when, in fact, it ends up usually being our strength. >> yeah, the fervent wish of every autocrat, anti-democratic, is to, you know, see the united states implode. in fact, what putin has tried to do by, you know, sponsoring information warfare, secessionist movements all over the world, is to make democracies meet the fate of the soviet union, imploding from within. he's done his best, partnering with our former president trump to weaken and polarize america.

i also think that the timing of this war, it came after that summit with, you know, biden, which biden has come out very, very strongly as being the defender of democracy on the global scene. i think, you know, putin sees this as a challenge, so he is going to do something to try and provoke chaos in the world. it's backfired so far on him, of course. >> colonel monsoor, who was a military fellow here in new york, i have a question on the next phase of the battle. if we're going to a large set piece between ukrainian and russian forces, how much can we extrapolate what has happened the last six, seven weeks, how much insight does that give us? or how different is this going to be, and does it play to the strengths or weaknesses of the various sides?

what is the order of battle qualitatively as we head into this next phase? >> well, the russians can reinforce with additional forces. they can put more weapons onto the battlefield. they can try to fight differently. but, unfortunately, they cannot fix the problems in their leadership overnight. they have shown three major difficulties in fighting. they've failed to gain and maintain air superiority. they can't maintain services on the battlefield. their logistics are horrible. these are things that can't be fixed overnight. now, what we've seen in warfare in the past is that aries do adapt if they have good leadership, then they'll come back stronger. but this is going to take more time. months and perhaps even years, not just days or weeks. so i really don't think we're going to see anything vastly different. the russians may try to

overwhelm the ukrainians in the east with just sheer weight of numbers and artillery and missiles, but the ukrainians have some of their best forces in the east, as well. they're not going to be an easy target for the russians. so i'm not so sure how different this is going to be from the battle for kyiv, which, of course, was a ukrainian victory. >> retired army colonel peter mansoor and professor ruth ben-ghiat, thank you both for being on this morning. coming up on "morning joe," faulty subway cameras hindered the search for the gunman who opened fire during yesterday's morning rush hour commute. we'll talk to the head of the mta about the subway security situation following the worst shooting in the history of the transit system. "morning joe" is back in a moment. my mental health was much better. my mind was in a good place. but my body was telling a different story.

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♪♪ we believe if this person is left the state, we'll use resources and relationships we have with nine neighboring states to bring this person to justice. we hope this is resolved soon. new yorkers want to get on with life. i took the subway over here early this evening to let new yorkers know, we appreciate their resiliency, how tough they are, that they still keep coming on this subway. i was really grateful to see that new yorkers cannot be kept down. >> joining us now, the man standing just over the governor's shoulder there, the chair and ceo of the metropolitan transportation authority. we appreciate you being here. >> good to be here. >> there was talk the camera was down in the 36 street station in brooklyn. you say you have video of this man. >> we have 600 cameras on that line just in brooklyn. over 10,000 in the system.

way up from where it was a couple years ago. the nypd, obviously, great investigators doing a great job, combing through that overnight. we have video now of three angles of this fellow who is the person of interest entering the system. obviously, with a lot of material which the cops have reported on. so a lot of video. a lot of evidence of where he came in and what he looks like, what he was carrying. >> do you have any sense from the video of how he got away? obviously, there was chaos, which explains a lot of it. did you see him escaping? >> as i said, 600 cameras just in brooklyn on the two lines on that platform, so a lot of evidence to sift through. i think amazing work by the nypd. they know who this fellow is. he has a ton of priors. they know his social media. you know, they are very much on the job to find this guy and bring him to justice. >> we all were talking in the break. we all at this table rode the subway yesterday and last night.

it was shoulder to shoulder. it was packed. there was a sense of looking out for each other, helping each other. the spirit of new york was on display in that moment, as well, as people, civilians, snapped into action. >> i thank you so much for mentioning it, willie. obviously, this is a terrible, horrific day for the people who were on that platform and for new yorkers in general. but we also saw in that moment of emergency the way new yorkers respond. you saw people helping people who were wounded. you saw people standing over people to try to make sure they had the best chance of recovery and looking after each other. you know, coincidentally, i was on 4th avenue on 9/11. i saw people walking back from manhattan when the subways were down on 9/11 covered in the ashes of the twin towers. new yorkers are stepping out to give them water, to offer them rides, to offer them comfort. that same spirit was on display yesterday. it's what we count on to make new york work. because even though, you know, we're not always perceived as

super friendly, in crises, people really step up. >> mr. lieber, you, more than most people, know the subway system in new york city is the beating heart of the city. it's also an incredible system. you can see well-dressed millionaires sitting next to someone with a canary on his shoulder or whatever. >> that was willie on the 1 train. >> yeah. >> the larger issue is that now the fact that this alleged perpetrator, he had quite a backpack when he got on that system yesterday morning. he had guns, smoke bombs, a hatchet. is there anything that can be done to minimize carry-on stuff like that? >> listen, we're going to take a look. obviously, we're looking at the forefront of technology, as everybody is. the mayor talked about that a little. the bottom line is that on that platform, in addition to the backpack and all the materials he left behind, i saw kids'

schoolwork, backpacks filled with kids' schoolwork. we're not going to create an environment where people can't go about their business and create something that is impractical. this is our public square. this is the sacred public space of new york, as you said. it is what makes new york possible. we couldn't have the density and the access to jobs and education and culture that we have at this scale without the subway. it's also the place where new york's diversity shows best. all these different kinds of people in a confined space, figuring out how to get along every day. the n-train runs through some of the most diverse neighborhoods in the city. it's a latino neighborhood. it is next to brooklyn's chinatown. it is next to the center of hasidic orthodox jewish brooklyn. it is a mosaic, as our former mayor used to call it. the subway is a special place in new york's heart. we're never going to let it be taken over by maniacs. >> i should identify myself as

an f-train guy, compared to the 1s here. transit crime spiked 46% in the last year. what more can be done to bring that down? also as the city reopens, and the subway is more full than it was, but it is still only at 60% of what it was in march 2020. how do you get more people back on the trains? >> those are good questions. transit crime, the way we attack transit crime, and the governor and mayor made this a priority before this happened, we, one, need cops on platforms and trains, which is where people feel vulnerable and where they are vulnerable. the mayor started to do that. the other thing is to just enforce the basic rules of conduct. the bad guys don't pay the fare. you know, most of the time, they come in, you know, illegally, beating the fare, jumping the turnstile, going through the slam gate. so they catch a lot of people just by enforcing fare evasion and by enforcing rules of conduct. no smoking. no drug use. no carrying huge shopping carts.

those are ways we start to diminish transit crime and also ways to make new yorkers safer. ridership and the functionality of new york to where it was pre-covid, we are getting back to normalcy. 60%, about double where we were a year ago. we have a was to go. we're waiting for everybody to come back to the office. it is no secret that's part of the equation. we want new yorkers to feel safe and to be safe. i trust in this governor and the mayor to continue to make the subway safety a huge to back th >> da said we're not going to prosecute turnstile jumping. why are things objectively worse in terms of crime in the subway? there are the splashy, horrific ones, but every day on every platform, something is happening. why is it different than four, five years ago?

>> there is definitely -- you know, covid, i would say, there was a little erosion of kind of public behavior in covid in lots of part of the city. we see it. there are folks who are struggling with all kind of addiction issues. there's mental health issues. they've found their way into the public space. we need to reestablish the sense of order and normalcy. you heard the mayor earlier, he is committed to that. i think that's going to go a long way to addressing some of the issues that we're having. but, you know, the subway is a microcosm of new york. we also need to, you know, overcome crime in new york. again, top priority for governor and mayor. again, they started talking about it literally the day after, you know, january 1st. >> we should point out, as we praise, rightly, the nypd and fdny, the mta workers who pulled wisely to the station, encouraged people to get on the other train and pulled out of the station, there was heads-up

work in the moment. >> thank you for pointing that out, willie. mta workers, unsung heros of covid. when we didn't know how transmittable it was, they showed up every day and helped the city power through the difficult early days of covid. they showed up again yesterday. those guys, the conductor and the motormenmotormen running that train on the r train scrambled to get everybody on the train and move the train out of harm's way quickly, big heroes and every day mta workers are doing small heroic things. we don't want to overlook them. >> chair and ceo of the mta, janno lieber. thank you for being here. >> you bet. coming up next the major repositioning of russian forces in ukraine. the ukrainian army makes a significant capture. who this man is and his relationship to vladimir putin. michael mcfaul joins us with his expert analysis.

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55 past the hour. an attorney for a man facing multiple charges in connection to the january 6th attack on the capitol used his opening statement yesterday to pin the blame solely on donald trump, arguing the former president "authorized" the assault. the attorney told jurors trump was part of a "sinister plot" to get the defendant, 38-year-old dustin thompson, and other supporters to "do his dirty work." he said trump convinced "vulnerable people" like his client that the election had been stolen. thompson faces six charges

including obstruction of official proceeding and theft of government property. nearly 800 people have been charged in connection with the attack and almost 250 have pleaded guilty. trump has said he is not responsible for the actions of the rioters. up next, more on the manhunt under way for the gunman who carried out yesterday's attack on a new york city subway train. former new york city police commissioner dermot shea is our guest. and also ahead we return to our coverage of the war in eastern europe. president biden accuses vladimir putin of genocide in ukraine as russia closes in on the besieged city of mariupol. nbc's molly hunter brings us the latest from on the ground and former ambassador to russia michael mcfaul joins the conversation. "morning joe" is back in just a moment.

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there's no evidence that indicate at this time that there was an accomplice. it appears as though he was operating alone and we're going to have police enforcement on our subway system. we're going to have a real omni presence and we're asking new yorkers to be vigilant. we know how to do this. we've been here before during such devastating attacks against our city and we're asking new yorkers if they see something, say something, and do something, notify local police whoa are there. we're going to have uniform presence throughout the entire system. it's clear he wanted to bring terror to our system and we're going to bring him to justice and have him prosecuted for his actions. >> just a short time ago the mayor of new york city, eric adams on our show. they're searching for a man of

interest after yesterday's mass shooting in the subway system. is he 62-year-old frank james, whose credit card and keys to a rental van were found at the scene. at least ten people were shot, 13 others hurt when a gunman fired 33 rounds from a handgun and set off two smoke canisters. we'll speak with the former new york city police commissioner dermot shea. president biden accusing vladimir putin of genocide in ukraine. nbc news correspondent molly hunter has the details. >> reporter: this morning, more russian troops moving towards eastern ukraine as ukrainians brace for the next phase. in the newly released photos the u.s. intelligence contractor says russian military vehicles can be seen an hour from ukraine's eastern border.

this comes as russian troops close in on the city of mariupol, the death toll there the mayor says likely more than 20,000. in the kyiv region alone, officials say the bodies of more than 700 people have been identified and that's not including hundreds still missing. for the first time, president biden calling the atrocities in ukraine genocide. >> none of us should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away. >> reporter: overnight president zelenskyy responding in a tweet "true words of a true leader." on tuesday, putin's closest ally in ukraine, victor medvecok was detained by ukrainian troops. here as the counting of the dead continues volunteer paramedics are racing to reach those still living without medical care for the last six weeks. andy was a combat medic in afghanistan woke up three weeks ago and decided she had to be here. >> i said to myself, this is

really bothering me. this is wrong, so i thought at least i could try to do something. >> reporter: they're going village to village today asking local troops here if there's anyone left. >> it's amazing to see people smile still. you know? really amazing. >> reporter: what is the reaction of people when they see you? >> like when you go to grandma and grandpa's house. they greet you and love you. i've been greeted so much, we don't understand what each other is saying but they're happy somebody has come to see them. >> reporter: as the war moves east, no one is letting down their guard. >> joining us now former u.s. ambassador to russia, now the director of the institute for international studies at stanford and nbc news international affairs analyst michael mcfaul. ambassador, i'd like to bring up a point that a colonel made earlier, retired colonel made earlier in our show that if we get enough weapons to ukraine,

they could win this war militarily, but then what? >> well, i'll defer to the colonel about military operations. i'm not an expert on that. my sense, from talking to senior ukrainian officials, including by the way president zelenskyy just yesterday is that they see all, it's all or nothing in what they're calling the war for donbas, the battle of donbas. they won the battle of kyiv. everybody should remember that. that was a tremendous military victory that nobody expected. i think it will be written in history books as one of the most important victories of the ukrainian nation for centuries but now it's on to the battle for donbas, and the way they perceive it is that they can win and win might mean a stalemate, by the way. win is an elastic term, but they think they can fight to a stalemate and then have a piece of them if they have the weapons

to fight that kind of fight and right now they don't think they do and hoping for more before that battle begins. >> so mr. ambassador, we saw joe biden talking about genocide yesterday, talking about the war crimes that have been committed. i'm sorry, i don't believe that the russians are all naive to what's going on, because they plug in to state television as if they don't understand the war crimes are being committed. you retweeted a piece talking about complicity, the complicity of the russian people, glycial tongue, used in nazi germany with people to go along with an evil regime. are we there yet with the russians? >> i think we have to discuss it. this is very difficult for me, because of course, this is

putin's war. russians didn't, you know, were not all complicit. if you live in the putin bubble you're not going to believe it. you think of trump supporters, doesn't matter what information they have, they're still going to believe it but i don't think the majority of russians fall in that bubble and i do think we have to raise the question. i was just on a youtube discussion for an hour yesterday with russians saying these things. you can't just say it's not my war, not my president, it's not my problem. no, it is, because for decades, there hasn't been more resistance. now, that's not to say that everybody should be as brave as anavalny and go to jail. resistance is important to show

that you don't support this war. >> tell me what your latest reaction is to the strong words of president biden, the commitment to even more military power. we saw zelenskyy talking, calling biden a true leader. is the white house doing what the white house needs to do, so the united states can be the continued defender of freedom and democracy across the globe? >> yes and no, joe. here's how i think about it. every week that there's more weapons and more sanctions, i applaud the biden administration, and almost every week of this war has been new announcements of both, and at the same time there's more to be done, so there's this myth out that we've done everything we can on sanctions. completely not true. 6,000 more oligarchs that could be on the list. we should be pushing hard for

oil and gas sanctions especially oil sanctions with our german and other allies in europe and when people say it can't be done, that's not true. there's way more that can be done on the sanctions side. >> why aren't we doing this, mr. ambassador, right now? >> we're doing it but we're not doing it fast enough, not bold enough in my opinion. i would just say when i talk to u.s. senior colleagues, i just did yesterday, i applaud what they're doing and then i listen to president zelenskyy and his team and they say why aren't you doing more, and i would just say, i'm a professor at stanford, you get an "a" for the midterm, fantastic but the war is not over. we haven't gotten to the final grade so you got to keep working at it. i would say that about weapons, too. >> let me interrupt you, again, though, i understand about the weapons. the president certainly has to be very careful especially when

you have putin talking about world war iii and nuclear weapons, it seems like in every other breath, but as far as sanctions go, explain to us why aren't we doing everything? why is the west not doing everything that it can do on sanctions, on all of these oligarchs? >> well, on the oligarchs, i don't know. on the oligarchs, you should open up "forbes" magazine and look at the rich people in russia and put them all on the sanctions list and flip it around and say if they're mistaken, prove it. instead of innocent before purchase guilty, flip it around. because 99% of them, they're supporting putin's war, they should be sanctioned. on the thing that really matters, which is revenues, because of energy exports, oil and gas, particularly oil, the argument, i'm explaining but i disagree with it is what you hear in america, it's about inflation. it's about we can't do that

because that will harm us economically. i think that's the wrong argument. leaders shape public opinion polls, politicians respond to them, and every time i talk to americans about it, they applaud. i was just in sioux falls, south dakota, last week, 3,000 people, joe, came to my talk about ukraine, 3,000 people in the red state of south dakota, and when i explained it, they gave me a standing ovation, that's what we need our leaders to do here and that's what we need to convince our leaders in europe to do as well. >> so ambassador, yesterday a significant sort of reframing of the war from vladimir putin, he said peace talks are at a dead end but he also said no, our focus is, and he claimed always has been on east, donbas. given the failures throughout the rest of the country, he thought he'd roll through. what are his objectives right now is? what does that mean for the

length of this war? >> first, wilwillie, everybody should listen to what he said. it puts to rest a lot of mythical arguments we had before the war. asked why he fought, he said because we had to kill the nazis and help the people of ukraine, right? by the way, he didn't say a word about nato expansion. remember that ridiculous debate we had several weeks ago? afs hull our fault, not a word about it. i encourage everybody to look at it and listen to it. number two, he said it was all along the fight was for donbas. of course that's not true, let's be clear. by my count they're on plan "d." plan a didn't work, plan b didn't work, plan c didn't work. he has a new general to do plan d but it is clear to me that is the focus now to connect the south, to connect crimea to the donbas, called the new russia

that was once part of the russian empire, and key to that is could capture mariupol, why you have the horrific fighting -- fighting is not the right word, just killing of innocent people and destroying buildings. they couldn't take it militarily, so they just have to destroy it, but that's where the fight will be and that's where the ukrainians are moving their forces and my prediction is in the coming weeks, this will feel more like a conventional war, a kind of battle that we saw during world war ii. >> ambassador, we have a little more on the capture of one of vladimir putin's closest allies, who molly hunter mentioned in her report, photos posted by ukrainian president zelenskyy showed pro kremlin politician viktor medvechok, caught trying to disguise himself as a ukrainian soldier by wearing the uniform of the country's army.

this after he was charged with treason and put under house arrest last year before reportedly disappearing when the invasion began. as for his relationship with putin, the "new york times" reports that the two men are so close, it's believed that the russian president is the godfather to medvechok's daughter. if you could talk about the putin ally and his capture and getting back to where i started. ukraine may be getting aid in the fight but does this ultimately all deal with putin? >> this is a giant achievement. he's a putin puppet in ukraine, doing things on behalf of russians inside ukraine for many years. it's important to remember, putin is trying to undermine

democracy, and medvechok is one of his principal agents with his television shows and money. zelenskyy took the courageous decision to put him under house arrest several months ago and i think that's one of the precipitants of the war. i think that's why putin decided to strike out, in his address to every night zelenskyy gives an address to the nation and talked about him as a trader and the audacity to put on a ukrainian soldier's uniform to try to sneak out of the country. you could hear the anger in president zelenskyy's voice and this will be a blow. some people had putin achieved one of his first objectives in plan a and plan b, he was going to install his own pro-russian government that medvechok would have been his candidate for the new president of ukraine. that is not going to happen anymore. >> ambassador mcfaul, according

to military assessments it's now highly likely mariupol will fall, because the defenders of mariupol are cut off from any supply chain, from any reinforcements. given your contacts and conversations with ukrainian officials, what is your assessment of how that might change the negotiating table on both sides? >> that's a great question. what it means, you know, if it happens but i think most people agree with your assessment, although i've been hearing that for three weeks, by the way, and they still haven't taken mariupol. it's kind of incredible. there's been some pretty interesting weapons drops in various ways. i've heard rumors about i think there will be a lot of interesting heroic history about how long they've held on, but once let's say it does fall and

they connect the territory, that creates a real dilemma for president zelenskyy with respect to peace negotiations because up until now he said two very courageous things. we'll trade neutrality for some security guarantee. by the way, yet to be defined and that's another place where i think it would be wise for the biden administration to lean into that, and to help say what we're going to do in terms of that security guarantee, so that's one big part of the negotiations, but the second is about the borders, and two or three weeks ago, zelenskyy said again very courageously, we will agree to disagree about where the borders are. we're never going to say crimea's part of russia, but we will agree to only reunify our country through peaceful means. that was the compromise he put on the table. the problem is, if putin takes

more territory, that makes that kind of compromise a lot, lot harder. remember, ukraine is a democracy. zelenskyy is a hero. the people are supporting him, but that will be a much harder kind of compromise to bring all of society along and that is precisely why putin is doing it. he needs a victory, he needs to say there's a reason we lost thousands of soldiers that we took some of this territory and that, i don't know how that negotiation is going to end but it's going to be a lot more complicated because if mariupol falls and the cities around it but focusing on mariupol in particular. >> meanwhile, the orwellian message back home is this is a war of nato aggression, that it is ukraine that is the aggressor in this case. michael mcfaul, former u.s. ambassador to russia, we always appreciate your insights. we want to turn to the worst shooting in the history of the new york city subway took place yesterday morning. several law enforcement agencies are looking for 62-year-old

frank james. the nypd identified him last night as a person of interest, nearly 12 hours after ten people were shot at the 36th street station in brooklyn. police say they connected james to the scene after officers found the keys to a u-haul van he rented in philadelphia and ditched five miles from the station where the attack took place. joining us now former new york city police commissioner dermot shea. mr. commissioner, thanks for being with us this morning. the pursuit of this person of interest, mr. james, continues this morning. what are new york city police officers, what is the fbi doing right now? do you suspect, we've become accustomed to your former department moving so quickly to apprehend people like this. what do you suspect they're doing to find him. >> when the incident happened yesterday and you see the rush of the first responders you have to recognize there are a number of duties being performed at the same time. so there are people trying to save lives.

certainly trying to have people start the investigation but not talk about as much is another group of people that are immediately mobilized, and their purpose is simple. their purpose is to go out and apprehend people once they are identified. sometimes in investigations it may take minutes or hours, sometimes it may take days but an incident of this magnitude immediately members of the regional fugitive task force will be mobilized and on standby so that when the appropriate time comes, they're ready to go, they're doing work-ups on any individuals that are identified and i will tell you, they are simply the best of the best. they're comprised up of u.s. marshals, nypd assets, state police, fbi and others, working in a cohesive unit that can literally reach out across the country and touch people wherever they are, so i believe that they are feverishly right now trying to identify where this individual is, and speak to him as quickly as possible.

>> commissioner, certainly this individual does not have known ties to new york anyway, so i would assume to your point that would mean that the search is expanding well beyond the state's borders but i also wanted you to weigh in, if you will, on the idea whether this was an act of terrorism or not. we heard from the governor and mayor yesterday sort of shy away from that at least initially, although we heard from mayor adams, suggests it was a terrifying act. what is the distinction, why wouldn't this be called an act of domestic terrorism? >> and i think that people get hung up on this, and certainly from my point of view, if you're on that train car, it doesn't make a heck of a lot of difference, let's be clear about that. the distinction comes in, because once something is designated with that official title, and there are protocols to follow, then the investigation in this assets gets handed off to federal authorities, so what the public should know though is from the get-go, members of the federal authorities are with the nypd

not since this incident happened, they're with them every single day here in new york city working alongside each other on criminal investigations on everything from drugs to organized crime to also anti-terror activities, so that distinction really has no effect in slowing down the investigation and these things are going on parallel tracks and as investigation proceeds, information comes in and it becomes clear what the motivation was, there can be an official handoff. right now what's on first and foremost everyone's mind is find this individual and make sure that nothing else happens. >> so commissioner, to the points that you just raised in that answer, yesterday was another amazing display of coherent response to an act that terrified the city, terrified a lot of people just reading and hearing about it. enormous response, multiple

numbers of people from different units of the police department, fire department, emergency services unit. is there a single commander on site? how does the command structure work in a situation like yesterday? >> yes, there absolutely is. any incident, there is a protocol. there's actually a protocol for any incident that happens in new york city, so the acronym is here in the cims, city wide incident management system. if a tree falls, who is in charge, an accident on the hudson river. incident like this it's the nypd in charge, clearly defined commander at the scene but underneath that the key part is all city agencies funneling in, working together. everyone knows their task and what to do and any information flows freely with the people that need it. >> just about 24 hours since that attack, law enforcement still looking for 62-year-old

man named frank james. former new york city xlis commissioner dermot shea, thank you for being with us. we appreciate it. still ahead on "morning joe" what the pentagon wants to add to ukraine's arsenal. plus clint watts is at the big board breaking down russia's new military strategy. and back here at home, inflation hits a 41-year high. we'll drive into the factors driving prices higher. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. [ joe ] my teeth were a mess. i had a lot of pain. as far as my physical health, my body was telling me you got to do something. and so i came to clearchoice. your mouth is the gateway to your body. joe's treatment plan was replacing the teeth with dental implants from clearchoice. [ joe ] clearchoice has changed my life for the better. it's given me my health back. there's an amazing life out there if you do something for your health now.

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ukrainian forces fighting on the ground, the white house is planning to send more weapons to the war-torn country. u.s. officials say the new aid could be worth $750 million and may be announced as early as this week. the package is likely to include

weapons with new capabilities such as mi-17 helicopters and unmanned drone ships. the equipment is specifically aimed at helping ukrainian forces fighting the russians in the eastern donbas region where moscow may launch a new offensive in the coming weeks. joining us with more is pentagon correspondent for "the washington post", caran demergen. some of the weapons sent, maybe you can give us more specifics here, they're going to require some training. i want to get a sense of the timeline, when the white house decides to send weapons, what does it take to get them into the hands of the ukrainians and being used against the russians? >> generally speaking, the track record thus far, once the announcement has been formally made, which it's not, this is a

preliminary document, once the decision is made and the order to send that out is given it's only taken them about four days to be able to get that material over to europe, usually places like poland, nearer to the ukrainian border and add another day or two on to transfer those into ukrainian hands so we're talking about a week's turn-around time which i think is the fastest that the united states has ever managed to do these sorts of distributions. so we're talking about fairly quick time line, but the decision-making process right now is still ongoing, where you often see the tension between what the united states is willing to do and what the ukrainians want. to give you a sense of that, yesterday as we were reporting the contours emerging around the $750 million package it seemed like the centerpieces of it were going to be the mi-17 attack helicopters to take out certain targets, c drones, howitzers, but overnight a pentagon officials said there are not

mi-17s as part of the package so we had to update our reporting. if you look at the stuff being shared in government circles, it gives you a sense of what the threats are, they have to be faced and skittishness about exactly what we're going to send and put into ukrainian hands for a variety of reasons. >> what are the reasons why you wouldn't send the helicopters and what do we know about what actually is being sent? >> we know there's additional stores of javelins which are useful and helpful but ukrainians are raising a clamor for a long time for air power, mi-17s are soviet origin, it would be easy for them to learn or know how to fly them and less risk of posing a greater security risk if they tall into the russian hands. most of our mi-17s come from having leftover from the afghanistan war and not clear

what is drawn from or the stores they were going to use to use c drones the ukrainian ambassador to the united states has had direct conversations with on itix that produces drones. drones are critical for helping ukraine gain advantage and taking out russian targets and so have attack helicopters. 'several weeks ukrainians have been asking for war planes like migs we have chosen not to create the kind of three-way funneling chain that would be necessary to get to them. this is the back-and-forth negotiation that's ongoing as the ukrainians state what they want and feel they need and the west takes a cost benefit of analysis what is too much of a provocation or not efficient because of the level of air power the russians have in various regions of ukraine and to try to send what we think is going to be the most bang for

your buck, the most punch in helping the ukrainians get a better advantage against the invading russians. >> thank you so much for your reporting this morning. still ahead, according to government data, gas prices climbed more than 18% from february, that's one of the driving factors behind the soaring inflation we're seeing right now. steve rattner has the charts to break it down, next on "morning joe." to make my vision a reality. i have to take every perspective, and see clearly from every point of view. with my varilux progressive lenses i seamlessly transition from near to far. and see every detail in sharp focus. when you see no limits, there are no limits. book now at your local essilor experts

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the other major story we're following this morning is the inflation rate, reaching a 40-year high. here's nbc news chief white house correspondent kristen welker with the details. >> reporter: america's unrelenting inflation crisis

keeps getting worse with news it accelerated to 8.5%, a 41-year high. prices surging across the board, gas prices up 48% over last year, food prices jumping nearly 9%, including meat, pole tree, fish and eggs, spiking nearly 14%. housing costs surging, too, with rents up 5%. in pennsylvania, school bus driver renee schultz says soaring grocery bills have left her struggling to feed her family. now she's turning to a food pantry. >> it's made it difficult. sometimes you have to make a choice on you know, what bill is going to not get paid so you could make sure you got food on the table. >> reporter: and in california plumber louis ray says the cost of parts have surged 40% to 60%. what is the toughest part about this moment and the increased prices? >> the toughest part is not knowing what the future holds actually. i'm not just a business owner,

i'm a human being. i have a household. >> reporter: gas prices this summer will be the highest since 2014. in iowa, president biden saying he's boosting the sale and production of ethanol-blended gasoline as a way to alleviate pain at the pump and again, blaming vladimir putin's ukraine invasion. >> i'm doing everything within my power to bring the price down. >> reporter: in reality, inflation has been soaring above 5% for nearly a year and our latest nbc news poll shows just 6% of americans blame rising prices on the russian invasion of ukraine. 38% blame president biden and his policies. the president facing criticism from republicans and a key democrat, senator joe manchin writing "the federal reserve and the administration failed to act fast enough" calling the response "half-measures." >> all right, thank you so much, nbc's kristen welker with that

report. let's bring in right now former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. steve, i was a little surprised joe manchin is blaming joe biden for inflation. obviously if they pass the $6 trillion bp bills, obviously there would be a lot more to blame there but i'm curious, how do you break it down? we have obviously as you've said $2 trillion sitting on the sidelines waiting to be spent. people are rushing back in the economy. we always knew it would be hot, the economy would be hot. is it the biden administration's fault? is it the fed's fault? was it politically feasible for the fed to take dramatic measures? >> it's a combination. you have to put the fed near the top of the list for putting $6 trillion literally into the

economy in the form of low interest rates and buying bonds and things like that. you have to fault a bit the biden administration in the size of the rescue package they tried to get path, put aside the ones that got passed. something over $2 trillion in consumer bank accounts they haven't been able to spend due to the pandemic now coming out and a lot of what's driving this and bad luck. ukraine plays a role in all of this. there's a number of places, but what manchin is trying to do is basically preempt another big rescue package and make it clear the next needs to be a big component of deficit reduction in it and i would agree. it's time to start dealing with the deficit as part of trying to bring down pressure of inflation. >> you also agreed with manchin that we couldn't have passed a $6 trillion bvb bill, $3 trillion would add too much heat to the economy and now a weakened consumer can be

grateful that manchin did stop. i am, i just would like to know what president you met would stop inflation from going up as we exited covid and as a russia began a war could cause gas prices to spike. i'm not saying it's not part of the administration's fault for taking their eye off the ball a little bit on what they were asking for but they never got what they were asking for. it's sort of hard to blame bbb, the request for bb because they never got any of it. >> that's why i said i think the principal responsibility lies with the fed. they got the american rescue plan which sent out a bunch of stimulus checks at a time when we back then knew pretty much the last thing the economy needed was more stimulus checks. so i do think there is some responsibility on the part of the biden administration but as

i said the war in ukraine was unanticipated consequence. would have been better if we hadn't started inflation going but yes, definitely ukraine is a principal culprit. >> the first chart soaring prices outpace wages. >> kristen welker gave you the headline numbers. let me try to fill in a few pieces around it. one of the more interesting parts of this and more disturbing parts of this, you had the 8.5% inflation she mentioned but what wasn't in her piece is the fact wages, while they've gone up faster have not kept up. that's the turquoise line. if you look at the turquoise line going back to 1997 and you could go back further the data isn't quite as good. the turquoise line wages stayed above the black line, inflation. consumers are getting an increase in their spending power, but what's happened here is that, even though wages are going up at about 6%, which is the highest they've gone up in

decades, the 8.5% obviously is more than that, and so you have consumers losing ground on their purchasing power and that's a big piece of what you see going on out there. >> the second one is fascinating. it shows your next chart how broad this is. so much focus on gas but groceries and rent obviously, there's appliances, this is such a deep and wide inflation spike. >> exactly. there's two pieces to, this the big gasoline piece and gasoline alone was 50% of the increase last month in inflation. gasoline is now $4.20 across the country, it was $2.60 a year ago, that's only part of the picture. whey put here are a few almost random products that people buy all the time, if you're buying furniture you're paying 16% more. if you look at the bottom, almost barely see tiny turquoise bars, that's what the inflation was in the categories before all this happened. 16% versus zero for inflation,

13% versus zero for chicken, 12% minus one for major appliances and your peanut butter is going to cost you 9% more relative to minus 1. >> i noticed that. minus 1 in the past. it is broad-based, air fares are up 24% over a year ago and more to come because meat is up 39%, corn is up 19%. there's more still coming through the system. >> you know, the interesting thing about the groceries is not only visibly, actually the prices are much higher now than a year ago but the scarcity of some items the pipeline providing -- >> the goods. it's very hard to get stuff that the famous supply chain problems which are true supply chain problems and partly excess demand created shortages with a lot of stuff. turn to consumers because this has both implications for obviously individual americans as well as political

implications, so on the left, you can see the consumers expect inflation to be 6.6% over the coming 12 months and if you ask them 14 months ago what did they think, they thought 3%. so this has been absorbed by consumers and become pessimistic about that and you can see more clearly on the chart on the right, which is consumer sentiment, which has hit a modern low as you can see on the chart on the right. 81% of americans think the economy is going to be in a recession this year. >> john, there's no way fort biden administration to sugar coat this. everyone is feeling this, at the gas station or grocery store, wherever it is, trying this line the putin price hike, not sure everybody is going to buy that. how do they handle this? >> that's the line we heard from the president and democrats recently. we'll see. polling suggests that americans are willing to pay a little bit more at the gas pump right now to help the ukrainians in their war effort but if this goes on

for months and months and months, that could change and certainly inflation could be a defining issue for the mid terms. the white house is nerve bus this. everything costs more and the covid outbreak in china is having a real impact, the mexican border more migrants crossing. the ethanol announcement might make a difference. he's going to north carolina tomorrow to talk about supply chains. steve, what more can they do and how much about interest rates? >> there's not much more they can do. a lot of is political, releasing oil from the strategic oil reserve, a modest impact. what the inflation numbers mean interest rates go up faster and sooner than people would have guessed even a few weeks ago. mortgage rates are now up in the high 4%, close to 5% for 30-year mortgages and in an incredibly short period of time and clear now the fed will probably have

to raise rates not a quarter of a point at its coming meetings but maybe half a point which is something it only does in extreme circumstances and so consumer also also feel the bite of higher rates. people borrowing money will feel that in interest rates as well. >> steve rattner, thank you. coming up, we're tracking the troop movements in the battle for ukraine. clint watts is at the big board with the latest on the next stage of this brutal fight. we're going to run through the maps when "morning joe" comes right back.

turning back to ukraine, national analyst clint watts joins us at the big boards where the fighting is happening today. if you could show us the very latest on the battlefield and tell us about the weaponry that the ukrainians have versus what

they need from what you can see. >> that's right, mika. so some updates that have happened here overnight. mariupol, we have been talking about this besieged city for several weeks now. the russians have continued to advance in, but interestingly, just some reports in open source over the last hour or two, some of the ukrainian forces that have been divided essentially unified, why that's important, mariupol, everyone thinks the russians will take it, but the longer russian forces stay bogged down here trying to take mariupol, the less time, that frees up time for the bigger fight which is exactly what they think we'll see which is here in the donbas. this is the convoy that has come down from belgrade. they're trying to move forces into izium, from luhansk, trying to move over. reports from some of the units that have come out of kyiv, they're being moved to belgrade.

lots of logistical problems and there's more questions about the will to fight. will russian military troops be ready to get back in. there's not a lot of confidence that they're going to be able to push all of that combat power in. separately i would say the one thing to watch throughout the area today, tomorrow, and through the next week, intense and direct fires throughout this donbas region. what you're going to see the russians trying to bring this group together, bring this access izyum, and this is the key to what they're trying to do, cut off portions of donbas, incrementally. every time they do that, they'll be able to control a pocket of the ukrainian military, force them to fight like mariupol or surrender. the last thing to look at is down here in kherson, the first major city the russians took coming out of crimea. you can see what we have is ukrainian counter attacks pretty

consistently. the russians have been able to establish bases in at least two locations, one at the kherson air base, building up logistics, i think that really points to what is the next phase of this. we could probably see this movement here, essentially moving north, and that's richard haas was talking about earlier. what is donbas, in putin's words. it's not really known. we believe this is the obvious, this is the donbas as it's known on our maps, but what if he tries to push and take a larger swath of that over time. >> clint watts, thank you very much. coming up, more on the united states' approach to arming ukraine in the fight against russia. we will speak with retired general barry mccaffrey, the four-star army veteran joins us just ahead on "morning joe." just ahead on "morning joe."

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and we're rolling into the fourth hour of "morning joe." it is exactly 9:00 on the east coast. 6:00 a.m. out west. >> beautiful shot of l.a., 6:00 a.m. good morning. >> pretty day. we're following two breaking stories at this hour. several new developments in russia's war in ukraine. and new details about the urgent man hunt underway right now across new york city. for the person behind yesterday's brazen subway shooting in brooklyn. the nypd has not named any suspects in the shooting, but they have named a person of interest in this attack. police say they want to talk to this man, 62-year-old frank james. police tell wnbc james has ties to pennsylvania and wisconsin, and was said to have passed criminal records in those states as well as ties to new york according to law enforcement sources. police say james rented a