this is held every thursday and friday. very starts right now. >> today on velshi. as the war rages on in ukraine, the tension is turning with growing alarm to a tiny russian occupied breakaway region that could hold the key to vladimir putin's next move. plus, another round of damning text messages from a former president's inner circle. another guilty plea from the january 6th insurrection. from an oath keeper accused of heading into the capitol breach where a tactical gear and wearing goggles after talking civil war in encrypted messages. the award willing winning author, debbie, makes the claim

that an institution charged with protecting our children is tearing families apart. then, can social media helped dismantle democracy? we are about to find out. two of the smartest people i know we'll explain why. velshi starts now. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> good morning! it is saturday april the 30th. day 66 of russia's unprovoked invasion of ukraine. i am a velshi. this morning, we will go back in time to talk about a tiny place in eastern europe that could become key to the war that is now ranging across ukraine. geographically, transnistria is a in area in eastern moldova. it is looking between the east and the west and the ukrainian border in the east. the area encompassing transnistria and present a model that was touched taken by the soviet union in the early part of world war ii. it was then captured by the

access powers and controlled by romania for a period of time. it was taken once again by the soviets in 1944, becoming the moldovan soviet socialist republic. months before the official end of the soviet union in august of 1991, moldova declared independence. it gained formal recognition as an independent state by the united nations on march the 2nd, 1992. also, on march 2nd 1992, following months of clashes, unarmed and bloody conflict erupted between moldovans and transnistria forces who wanted to remain post-soviet russia. they were backed by soviet forces who were operating under the russian flag. a cease-fire was reached on july 1st, 1992, which stopped the military conflict. it did not stop the political conflict. transnistria is internationally recognized as part of a moldova. however, it operates as a

quasi-independent autonomous region. it has its own flag, russian supported government, parliament, and president. transnistria even holds its own elections. they are not in internationally recognized and are not free or fair. transnistria remote remains influenced by russia. there was even a statue of london in the city square. as part of the 1992 cease-fire, russia was allowed to keep a peace keeping force in transnistria. it is a force between 1000 and 2000 troops, which it still maintains. back in march of this year, the parliamentary assembly of the council of europe recognize transnistria as most dove in territory occupied by russia. in a way, transnistria is to moldova what's the donbas was to ukraine pre-invasion, except that transnistria has been left to marinate under direct russian influence for 30 years, with russian troops.

indeed, after russia invaded the donbas and annexed quite miya in 2014, there was a growing movement inside of transnistria to once again become a part of russia. transnistria also has its own armed forces made up of several thousand forces which, so far, has remained on involved in the war in ukraine. however, there are growing concerns about russia's plans for transnistria and the troops that it has station there. in the early days of the war in ukraine, alexander lukashenko, the president of belarus, also's soviet union republic which borders ukraine to the north, appeared publicly with a map showing russia invading a transnistria and moldova. russian state news industries reported that they told a large gathering that the ultimate goal was to take full control of southern ukraine and to continue on to moldova, specifically transnistria. also, and importantly, the same

russian general said that there is evidence of oppression of the russian speaking population. that is the same lie that was used by putin to justify the initial invasion of ukraine. this week, there were several explosions and the transnistria capital of interior supple. ukrainians say that this was done by russians as provocations to be used as justification for military intervention. once again, similar to the situation in the donbas, in eastern ukraine. also similar to the situation in ukraine, a radio tower in transnistria was one of the targets of the attack. this is according to local officials. yesterday, a spokesperson for ukraine's defense ministry says that russia will use it protecting russians speakers in transnistria as an excuse for further aggression against moldova and southwestern ukraine. this is important because transnistria, look at it on the map. transnistria offers another route, a western root, to the

southern ukrainian city of odessa. it is an agent and coastal city of about 1 million people. it is a route that could be sought by the russians to invade the city. they failed to do so in advancing from the east. they lost their black sea flagship the moskva which was a vital foreign amphibian assault. one of the cities on the route to odessa from the east, mykolaiv, remains under ukrainian control. this is due to the intense and fear resistance. further east of that, in the city of azov, despite a publics -- putin's public announcement that they have conquered the city of mariupol, small pockets of fighting continue in what is left of the city. one recently escaped residents out of the city, hell is what is happening there. yesterday, the mayor added, if mariupol is hell, as of style is worse referring to the giant cabinet still planned. civilians and soldiers

including 600 wounded are held up under horrific conditions in ongoing russian bombings, including one that hit a field hospital according to the foreign affairs ministry. despite not capturing the city, the officials say that russia has pulled out several battalion groups, each of 1000 soldiers from mariupol. they are redeploying them to the fighting in the donbas region. the official also says that russia appears to be several days behind on its new major offensive in the donbas, making no major gains. it is only slow and unsteady advancements while dealing with many of the same issues from earlier in the war, mainly, ukrainian resistance and supply and moral problems. this is not stopped russian attacks elsewhere in ukraine. this includes in places previously viewed as a safe. local officials say that one person is dead after a russian missile struck a high residential building in kyiv. this is after the ukrainian

president, a volodymyr sullen ski, met with antonio guterres and that city. joining me is a cat, the senior fellow for the marshal fund of the united states and a former deputy assistant minister for the agency of international development in europe and eurasia where he led programs in places in ukraine, at the black sea region, it russia, and moldova. jonathan, good morning. thank you for being with us this morning. we want to talk about moldova. it comes up in different conversations. it has been talked about since the beginning of this war. it is beginning to seem more relevant. the moldovans, in particular, are worried that as a non-nato country in the region, formerly affiliated with the soviet union, that they could be next. >> they are the most vulnerable country in the region right now. what happens in ukraine over the next several weeks, days,

months, is going to have a direct impact on moldova. moldovans know, full well, russians have aggression. this face this over the last three decades. russian has done everything, mr. putin, to assure that moldova does not move closer to the west. they are vulnerable in terms of security. they have also taken in over 400,000 refugees, 100,000 have stayed, and we should be deeply concerned about what happens next in moldova. >> by the way, the refugees you talk about, in proportion to the size of the country, it is by far per capita the largest number of refugees anywhere. obviously, it is close to southwestern ukraine. it makes sense. refugees tend to want to stay as close to home as possible in a hopes that the thing that causes them to be refugees and. how does mueller handle that? >> there's been a great support from moldova. i want to highlight the --

how welcomed they have been by the moldovan government and people. but you see is an outpouring of the international community. this is in support of moldova's efforts to support humanitarian needs. we have seen the administrator of the usa to hand over power in moldova twice. they have provided over 100 million dollars in immediate assistance to moldova to address the humanitarian needs. there is a lot of support that is pouring in. more is needed. let's not forget that this is the poorest country and europe. it is facing an energy crisis and an economic crisis right now. much more needs to be done. i want to point out how heroic moldovans have been in support of ukraine. i think that you could see this in terms of the support that you are receiving right now in the united states and in europe. >> in the baltic states, a poll, and that these are all countries that take their nato membership seriously, particular in light of what is

going on right now. moldova is not a new member, sweden is on a member, finland is not a member. suddenly, everyone has expressed interest and becoming a member. moldova, in response to the request, they got the questionnaire. it is the beginning of a long process. some of these countries, including ukraine, would like to be members of nato right now. this is not how it works. what's the outlook for these countries if russia says, you do not come under nato protection. we, apparently, can walk in and what we want. >> i think this is one of the most important questions. moldova declares itself as a neutral country. it had a partnership with a nato. it is not's -- it has not sought out nato membership. it's eu membership is in motion right now. it is important that the eu moves as quickly as possible for their membership process. the moldovans are saying right now, they would like to have increased security cooperation with partners in the west,

including the united states. we are seeing the discussions happen. moldova is still and still declares itself a neutral country they are not trying to invite mark russia's military action. but they want to do is ensure their own security. we will see a deepening security relationship between moldova and its neighbors including romania. they have the largest border with moldova. and the united states as well. we've seen this over the last several weeks including a recent visit from the foreign minister to washington where he discussed these issues. >> this is the benefit of having an expert like you saw early in the morning. moldova has not applied for nato membership it is eu membership which you clarified. we appreciate that, jonathan. jonathan, thank you for being with us. he is the director of initiatives and the german marshall front of the united states. joining me from lviv ukraine's raf sanchez.

raf, i want to go back to the situation in mariupol. this is quite something. it is the equivalent to the american mind of the alamo. there are soldiers and civilians hold up in here. it is their last stand. the ukrainians, otherwise, do not have control of mariupol. vladimir putin says that the russians control it. in the end, the azov steil factory still stands. >> the alamo is in town squares across this country you are seeing a signs of supporting mariupol. you are seeing people gathering, waving flags, trying to do what they can even if it is just a gesture to support those ukrainian troops and civilians who are still trapped inside. if we were speaking 24 hours ago, i would have told you that things were possibly looking hopeful. president zelenskyy's office put out a short statement saying, they were hoping to move ahead with an evacuation

of civilians inside the plant on friday. more than 24 hours on from this statement, there is no progress that we can point to. folks are still trapped inside that steel plant. we are speaking to a soldier this morning. he says that the russian bombardment has been relentless. there's no way to come out of their even if they wanted to. we spoke also to the wife of a soldier who is in there. she said that he is doing his best to try to reassure the kids who are in their, many of whom are orphans. she said, at this point, in his exhaustion, the thing he wants most is a drink of clean water. we know that the un has moved a team down to zaporizhzhia in the southeast to be in position to get to mariupol if a window of opportunity does open up. despite president putin telling the secretary general of the united nations that he agreed, in principle, to the presence of international groups to try to facilitate and evacuation,

the russian foreign minister said, they do not need foreigners there. the way out it's clear if the civilians want to take it. it remains a very desperate situation in mariupol. >> raf, thanks again for your reporting. we will stay close. raf sanchez is live in lviv ukraine. and on the topic of annexation, we talked about it with transnistria yesterday. annexation has been used by vladimir putin and many other authoritarian leaders in the past. it is the formalization of the land grab that we are currently watching play out. plus, new details on the january six committee's public hearings. what should we expect and when. hearings hearings what should ewexpect an on the best day of her life. but colon cancer took him from us, like it's taken so many others. that's why i've made it my mission to talk about getting screened le to stheir reasons why. i screen for my growing family.

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unpunished evil returns. i would add, unpunished evil returns winged, with a sense of omnipotence. ukrainian presidents vladimir zelenskyy gave that warning to the australian parliament on march 31st. this was about a mansion to russia's invasion of the country. zelenskyy went on to explain that if the world had adequately punished russia for invading crimea in 2014, this current war could have been avoided. he is right. aside from some relatively modest economic sanctions, and

russia's expulsion from the world leaders, the crimea situation went largely unchallenged. so, if the dictator has his way, he will probably do it again. annexing and territory is considered an act of aggression by the roam statue of international criminal courts. annexation happens after a state acquires territory of another state, by force. it usually happens after a military occupation. it is generally, illegal. it happens under international law. russia successfully annexed crimea from ukraine in 20 -- it was the biggest land grams since world war ii. at the time, putin insisted he was protecting ethnic russians against far-right extremists. claims that were unfounded but continue to be repeated as the excuse for the current invasion. you are not allowed to call it an invasion in russia. the russian government oppose the annexation level, as most occupiers to.

that would mean admitting to an international crime. vladimir putin is certainly not the first leader to annex territory and claimed that this is own. the world has a long history of power hungry men who have attempted to forcibly take the land of others. let's start right here in america. before hawaii was a state, it was ruled by a monarchy. and the 18 80s the sugar industry was booming on the islands of hawaii. non native americans businessmen, investors, and plantar started to exploit the islands sugar. in 1893, a group organized by american businessmen staged a coup against hawaii's queen. they use the task of support of the american government. some members of congress opposed the formal annexation. it took several years before it actually happened, but it did. iraq's invasion of kuwait was an annexation. in 1990, a racks forces led by saddam hussein, invaded their oil rich neighbor. kuwait was immediately overwhelmed. by annexing them, he gained

control of 20% of the world's oil reserves. the u.s. responded with operation desert storm. a massive, american led occupation against iraq. abstained simply to protect the oil reserves. eventually, quite was liberated. it remains an independent nation today. when x next asian that remains on soil today's western sahara. morocco began its occupation in 1975. the moroccan government insisted, and still does, that western sahara is inherently part of my morocco. independents should not be an option for the indigenous population. by 1979, morocco went and fully annexed the territory. under in turn aston a law, the annex station is null and void. it is rejected by the un, the world court, and the african union. in 2020, under the former disgraced president of the united states, america became the first country in the world to recognize morocco's annexation of western sahara.

it was a trade made by the former president as part of a deal to normalize morocco's relations with israel. which brings us, arguably, to the leading occupying force in the world. israel. the map of the palestinian authority sometimes described as, swiss cheese, has been carved up by israel over the past century. the state of israel has forced the annexation of several arab territories. israel kept triggered jordan in the six day war in 1967. it remains occupied by israel to the state. occupation is just a step towards annexation. israel actually did an x two thirds of the goal law from syria during the six day war. passing a law extending israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to the area. america also under the former president, finally recognize the illegal annexation in 2019 as a gift to that then, israeli president, nothing yahoo, who

was struggling politically. in a massive political failure, the biden administration has not ruled that the recognition. -- since 1967, israel and the palestinians both assert rights in the west bank. leaving its status unresolved. israel claims historical and religious rights, as the incest roland of the jewish people. hundreds of thousands of jewish settlers now live on illegally occupied palestinian land in the west bank. palestinian families are constantly kicked out of their homes to make room for more israeli settlements. often, under false pretenses and legal justification's. the vast majority of the international community continues those -- they are planning to annex portions of the west bank since the start of the pandemic. they are ushering in a new israeli government. it is not illegitimate to change borders, as long as it is done for negotiation. with parties on both sides of those borders agreeing to the change. forcibly occupying another

territory is illegal. when an annexation goes unchallenged by the rest of the world it leads to violence, persecution, oppression, and in the case of ukraine war. i the case of ukraine war. motorcycle insurer. that's right, jamie. but it's not just about savings. it's about the friends we make along the way. you said it, flo. and don't forget to floss before you brush. your gums will thank you. -that's right, dr. gary. -jamie? sorry, i had another thought so i got back in line. what was it? [ sighs ] i can't remember. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought

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about the january six select committee's long awaited public hearings. according to a chairman, benny thompson, there will be a total of eight hearings. the first is slated for june

9th, just over a month away. quote, we'll tell the story about what happened to us. we will use a combination of things that we have through the lens of thousands of exhibits we have looked at, as well as hundreds of witnesses we have to post. >> one name that is certain to come up many times's former chief of staff, mark meadows. just last week a former staffer claims he was warned ahead of time that january 6th could turn violent. now, meadows, his name is in the headlines. this time over text with fox news is sean hannity. the messages obtained by cnn show the two men strategizing about how best to invalidate the results of the 2020 election. they are lamenting stolen votes. the 80 new tax or just a small portion of just 2000 messages that meadows provided to the select committee. nor him, nor hannity responded to msnbc's request for comment. this begs the question, if this is a preview, what fireworks do they have in store for the main

event. joining me now is betsy, the national correspondent for politico, and an msnbc contributor. betsy, good morning to you. we have heard a lot of these january six members. generally, i think they try to manage expectations. suggesting that these hearings are going to be a very big deal. what are we expecting? >> first, a whole bunch of them, throughout the month of may, chairman bennie thompson has said they will have eight. that is a lot of content that the select committee is going to be putting out for the public to process. some of the open questions are, how do they structure all of these hearings? several will be during prime time. others will be during the work hours of the day. that is something the chairman has also said. there are questions about will people have to watch all of them to get the full picture? will there be opening hearings that lay out the, shall we say, cliffs notes of what exactly happened on january six? why people should care about

getting a complete, and detailed picture of the violence of that attack? what we don't know is how they will organize these hearings. we do not know how they will bring in witnesses who might be adversarial. of course, we do know they spoke to hundreds of people. in fact, it is a tiny percentage of people they have reached out to who have not cooperated. are they going to bring in witnesses who are trump supporters? will they tried to interview away or hold people accountable? will they bring in folks like the former doj officials who have cooperated with the committee? will they talk about trump's efforts to co-opt that department? we do not yet know yet. it is possible the select committee does not know yet either. they still have a month to hammer out all these details. it is really a top priority. it is also a challenging priority for them to grapple with right now. >> i guess the question is, for many of us who watched january six, and heard everything that came out afterward, we have a

view of what has happened. clearly, there is a portion of america that has a different view of what happened. so, this whole idea that they are going to have stuff that is going to quote, blow the roof off, in jamie raskin's words, what is your sense of what that is? is there absolutely anything that could come out that would move anybody who is, 15 months later, and moved about what happened on january 6th? >> it is a really good question. we already know so much about this event. it is, perhaps, the best documented terror attack in modern history. there has been so much remarkable journalism at work by people, in the government, and non governments. face they are looking at what happened that day. attackers were very helpful by livestreaming the crimes that they were committing as they committed them. we know a lot about it. what we know less about is the specific conversations that happened in the white house. we do not know a ton about

ivanka trump's conversations with the den president trump. we do not know a ton about any perspectives that jared kushner might have had on the efforts to block the election from being moved forward, while he was traveling overseas. there are a number of senior trump and minister -- who have not spoken publicly in any great detail about the way that day unfolded. we know the select committee has had access to many of those officials for lengthy, and detailed interviews. we do not know how forthcoming those folks were. that is something we will find out during these hearings. when the report comes out, exactly how candid were they, how transference were they, that, in my view, is the biggest area where there is still capacity for many people in the public and media. where the sucked lacked committee has a unique level of visibility, it is a very interesting area. i think, but we will find out soon. >> we will be watching the space carefully, betsy.

thank you as always. that see, a national correspondent for politico and an msnbc contributor. coming up next, families broken apart by the system that is supposed to protect them. a disproportionate effect and target on some more than others. some more than others wow, first time? check out this backpack i made for marco. oh yeah? well, check out this tux. oh, nice. that'll go perfect with these. dude... those are so fire. [whines] only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪

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toddlers. while enjoying a family picnic at a park one afternoon, her eldest son wondered off. not out of her sight. a woman passing by thought that her son was unattended. she called 9-1-1. even though vanessa was walking toward her son. when the police arrived, they wanted proof that vanessa was the child's mother. they only relented when her relatives felt for her. still, the police ticketed vanessa for child abuse and reckless endangerment. that was just the beginning of vanessa's ordeal. a month later, a caseworker made a surprise visit to her home. vanessa was in the basement giving her children a bath at the time. she did not hear the knock at the door. one of her sons went upstairs and kicked out the window. the caseworker spotted him and again, mistakenly assumed the child was unattended. once again, a call was made to the police. when the cops arrived they entered the nexus home without a warrant, or without permission. vanessa was charged with this a second time, child abuse.

to avoid jail time, she pled guilty to the charges against her on the advice of her public defender. vanessa was in nursing school at the time. because of the strains of court mandated appearances, parenting classes, she was forced to drop her studies. with child abuse charges now on her record she is barred from many employment opportunities and health care. because of that one phone call, by a stranger at the park when afternoon, the government became a huge, and disruptive presence in almost every aspect of the nasa's life. vanessa's case is not an isolated incident. it is what happened when state in agents have the policy and power to intervene and excessively police families. every, year child investigators investigate three and a half million cases in america. one study found that 37% of all children will be the subject of a cps investigation before they turned 18. in the case of black children, more than half of their families, 53%, are investigated

by such agencies during their childhood. of those who are placed in foster care, only 17% are victims of some victims of physical or sexual abuse. compared to 63% due to the allegation of neglect. that is a broad term that encompasses larger social issues like food insecurity, improper housing, and often stems from race, class, and gender inequality. the stories of families whose lives have been interrupted by the intrusion of child protective agencies are chronicled in a new book titled, torn apart. how the child wear for a system distrust black families, and how abolition can build a safer world. the book argues, and the earth author does that the system in place does more harm than good to the children it aims to protect. it makes a case for radical reimagining of how america can do a better job of protecting children, in supporting families. dorothy roberts, a professor of law and sociology at the university of pennsylvania is the author of that book. she's the author of several

others. dorothy, good morning to you. good to see you. >> good morning. thank you so much for inviting me back on your show. it is a privilege, and honor to be here. >> it is important for us to learn about this. you recently wrote about five myths that the public has about americas child protective system. i want to put those on the screen. in your book you wrote, quite, this nation's terroristic approach to protecting children blames the most marginalized parents for the impact of race, class, and gender inequalities on their children. obscuring those unequal structures and the need to miss mantle them. the mission of cps agencies is not to care for children or protect their welfare. rather, they respondent adequately and inhumanely to the effects of our societies abysmal failure to care enough about children's welfare. and quote. i guess i have to ask you, dorothy, how do you compare your call for the abolition of child protection services to

folks who were calling for defunding the police? others said, we actually do need police to keep people safe. they may not be doing a good job but eliminating that may not be the right example. what is the comparison here? >> well, i actually think both movements to abolish the police, and to abolish family policing are very much connected. partly, because the systems are so entangled in the way in which they approach the needs of people, and conflicts in society, through these punitive means that distressed communities and families. also, because they work hand-in-hand. let me point out one thing you emitted from vanessa story. at the end, seven police officers came into her house, dislocated her shoulder, hog-tied her, and carried her out and put her in jail. all stemming from her little boy traipsing away, momentarily, from her at a family picnic. we have to understand that

these are very entangled systems. the calls to and them, and divert the billions and billions of dollars spent on them, to actually caring for families, meeting children's needs, and really addressing by preventing family violence. that would keep children and communities far safer. it would be better to do that then to continue to work in these destructive systems that are, in the end, not keeping people safe. they are not meeting people's needs. we need to, radically, transform the very approach, the very logic, of how we meet the needs of people in our society. and, how we address problems that are caused by deep structural inequities that we have. >> you talk about what would happen, and when you talk about abolishing child protective services, you talk about how the pandemic actually may have

proved your case. you rank, the pandemic redfield the folly of her child welfare system, and the promise of a radically different approach. we could start by diverting the millions of dollars spent on investigating, monitoring, and separating families to changeable resources provided directly to parents and other family caregivers, as well as to voluntary community base supports for families. explain to us what you mean. you are saying, during the pandemic, the sort of happened. there was a better outcome. >> yes. let me give credit to an aaron's. she is an assistant professor at nyu. she pointed out that during the pandemic there were all these warnings that children were going to be abused in their homes. they were trapped with their parents, and cps was not going out to investigate. that is true. in new york city, for example, cps in the family courts almost shut down because of the pandemic, during the lockdown period. what happened was not what they predicted.

it was the opposite. children were kept as safe in their homes. there was not any kind of overload of child abuse going on in the homes. everyone who has looked at this has conceded that those predictions were wang. including the head of the administration for family services in new york city. so, why was that? but kept children safe? what it was was an outpouring of mutual aid networks that distributed groceries, diapers, provided childcare, and other kinds of care needed by families. it also stemmed from the cares act that distributed millions, and millions of dollars directly into the hands of parents, and other family caregivers. this was without the need to be investigated. without the need for their children to be traumatized by

separating them. without the need to put children in foster care. those reveal two main aspects of how we could replace this system that is so traumatic, and so racist. clearly, 53% of black children investigated by this set of agencies, that cannot be because their parents are truly neglecting, and abusing them. it is because they have means that are being unmet. we need a radically different approach that dismantles this vicious system that yes, i call a terroristic system. it is taking children away from their families, unnecessarily. it replaces it with mutual aid community resources, transformative justice that actually deals with the roots of domestic violence, and prevent set, and also, a radical change in government policy. it should truly address the

astronomical rates of childhood poverty in america. we have the highest rate of child poverty in america. especially, in the very communities that are torn apart by this system. black, and native communities. we have the highest rate of taking children away from their families. it is rooted in the history of targeting black and indigenous communities. even as a weapon as war against them. this is not helping to keep children safe. we can see that it is a failure. we should stop clinging onto it as if it is necessary. start dismantling it. at the same time, build up the kinds of resources, and approaches that will truly support families, and keep children safe in their homes. >> dorothy, this is a topic that we need many hours to discuss. fortunately, you have written a

book about this. it is an important read for people who do not know that this is an issue. it might be most people. dorothy, thank you for raising awareness of this. dorothy is a professor of law and sociology at the university of pennsylvania. she's the author of torn apart, how the child welfare system to stories of black families, and how abolition can build a safer world. if you have not checked your 401k lately, today might not be the day to do it. unless you want to ruin the mood. the first four months of 2022 we're on track to be the first start of a year in over eight decades. that is not even considering the most concerning aspect of the economy right now. i will discuss it on the other side of the break. side of the break. shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow.

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has the power to treat copd in as many ways as trelegy. with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy helps people breathe easier and improves lung function. it also helps prevent future flare-ups. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. take a stand and start a new day with trelegy. ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy. and save at trelegy.com. it has been a pretty rough week for the markets. the s&p 500 which tracks the performance of the 500 biggest companies on the stock market tumbled yesterday. it hit its steepest? a client for the month of april

in 20 years. the index has fallen four consecutive weeks. this is a ten-year s&p 500 chart. it's down nearly 14% this year alone. again, as you can see, over ten years the market has done very well. simultaneously, the dow is down more than 9% year to date. the tech heavy nasdaq is down more than 22%. the first four months of 2022 we're on track to be the worst starting year in over a decade. some of the volatility has been triggered by high prices. especially, by high oil prices. the war in ukraine, and the enduring russian dependency which we have also spoken of is a big contributor. take a look at the price of oil that we trade here in the u.s. over the past ten years, as well. this is a little choppier than the stock market, as you can see. prices of oil have topped $100 before. but, oil is still a major economic input to inflation. it is what we are facing. we also have restricted no data on gross domestic product, gdp.

it is the broadest measure of the economy that you have at the moment. the u.s. saw the weakest quarter for gdp growth since the start of the pandemic in the spring of 2020. we saw shrinking. that's what you see the top right of your screen there. shrinking at a 1.4% annualized rate in the first three months of the year. this is largely attributed to a widening trends deficit. these ongoing supply chain issues with which we have been grappling. think about it, if it is hard to get stuff, you pay more for that staff. it is in short supply. you have not as many people who are buying it. there is a major asterisks here. it is that the gdp numbers will be revised and corrected, several times over the course of the year. it is such a big gun-wielding number. gdp numbers, in the moment, do not paint a totally accurate picture of what is happening. i want to put that aside for a second. you have to watch those overtime. what is happening, in realtime, are that interest rates are going up.

we can probably expect a fed rate increase from the federal reserve next week. officials of the u.s. central bank are said to raise their benchmark rate by half a percentage point. then, possibly, another half percentage point in june. now, if you think of the fed as a car with only breaks and gas, but no steering wheel, raising rates is the equivalent of hitting the brakes. it makes it more expensive for people and companies tomorrow morning. they spend less money and that reduces demand. it cools inflation down. this is not an exact science. if you cool spending down too much, you could end up in a recession. or with a whole lot of people mad about how much interest they are paying. well, the fed raise rates by just a quarter percentage point in march. it was the first such rays since 2018. the actual infrastructure on personal loans, credit cards, and what you are looking at here, mortgages, has shot up by much more. a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, if you have good credit, is now higher than 5%. this is the tough reality.

the problem is bad. the solution is bad to. no president wants a tenure plagued by inflation or high interest rates. or by major feels over recession. or by an actual recession. there is no easy out here for president biden. he is going to have to make a difficult choice. for better or for worse, americans vote with their wallets. right now that could be a big problem for potential second term. right after the break, we are joined by a man who has an informed opinion on what president biden should do. he's the former chief economist for the international monetary fund. international monetary fund in required. (dad) i love it. (vo) what's not to love! verizon is going ultra, so you can get more. numbers... ...move you but some can stop you in your tracks. like the tens of thousands of people who were diagnosed with certain hpv-related cancers. for most people, hpv clears on its own. but for those who don't clear the virus, it can cause certain cancers.

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[ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. before the break, we were discussing how several major indicators showed that the u.s. economy is in some trouble. it could have a big impact on president biden's reelection prospects as we get closer to 2024. joining us now is kenneth s rogue off. he is a -- and a professor of public economics and a friend of mine, who i do not call that often. when i do, when you see this split screen of ken and me, you know there is something important to discuss. can, the reason i am calling

you today is to say, we have markets struggling, oil prices high, inflation, interest rates going up, what when you put this all together in your calculation doesn't mean? >> it is definitely a scary situation. the whole world, ali, i mean for sure the war in ukraine and, by the way, i have to command do on your find work there. the war in ukraine is shooting oil prices up. food prices are going up. it is cutting supply lines. china has this covid zero policy. it is a failure, it needs to move on from it. that is exasperated but eating inflation and supply problems. the federal reserve is having to do something now that inflation is so high. it is going to come down a little on its own. not nearly enough. really, there is the makings, i

hate to be grim, of a perfect storm here on the global economy. europe, china, the u.s., all in trouble at once. reinforcing each other. there is a chance that things will get better, but it is a very risky situation. i think markets are really starting to see this. >> so, inflation solves itself into ways. one, this is a pretty critics ample, but that the fed increases interest rates as it has done once. it will probably do it again next week. it will probably do it again in june. it slows the economy down because people do not borrow as much. the other hand, people can have a recession. other things can happen, and that slows the economy down. it happens more. one can lead to another. raising interest rates is an inexact science. you can raise them enough that it actually slows the economy down. what is the right course of action given everything you, just talked about? >> you gave a great analogy,

ali, of a man driving a car that only has gas and breaks. i would go one step further. when you step on the brakes it does not do anything for a couple of minutes. the fed does not know how soon when it raises interest rates there will be a reaction. when it did not raise them sooner, i think it did not know inflation is coming. it is a very difficult, and non science, and hard thing to do precisely. in the middle of all these uncertainties i think that the fed will be conscious and err on the side of letting inflation go. there is no easy way to get an answer here. i think a lot of mistakes have been made. there have been a lot of extremely bad luck. we have to hope for some good stuff. >> let's hope for that. can, good to see you as always. thank you for joining us, we appreciate. it can robe off as a former chief analysis at the -- he is a public policy an economics professor at harvard

university. straight ahead, a new batch of text messages from the cell phone of the former presidents chief of staff, regarding the january 6th insurrection. another hour of velshi begins right now. f velshi begin right now. here on the west coast, i am ali velshi. jot down the state. june 9th. 40 days from now, that is when the house select committee investigating the january 6th insurrection is scheduled to begin its long awaited public hearing. detailing the findings of its nearly year long investigation. committee members have been teasing these hearings since the beginning of the year. this is the first time we received any details about the committee's plans. the chairman of the committee, bennie thompson, told reporters that the panel is scheduled to hold eight hearings. these will begin on june 9th. some of these hearings are taking place during prime time hours. witnesses will be called. many exhibits will be