constitutional scholars and historians understand is one of the most critical things that separates the united states from autocracies and that is the ability of the side that loses to accept a peaceful transition of power. you know, there are so many times when i was growing up and learning history and even in college, people say, you know what separates our country from every other country is that when we -- when power is exchanged from one side to another, that instead of tanks rolling out into the streets. >> right. >> we actually just have a peaceful transition of power. people vote. and the loser recognizes that and accepts it. this still is not happening in the trump wing of the republican party. and it's anti-democratic. it is hostile to american democracy. it is hostile to constitutional

norms. and it still needs to be calledoit every day and we need to recognize these people for what they are. their ill-liberal. they hate american democracy, liberal democracy, they hate western democracy. they're hostile to a free press. they are hostile to democratic norms. it is just who they are. and they've revealed themselves as that. and we should call that out every day. >> and we shouldn't move past it. that is why the january 6 committee is doing the job they are doing. any republican who wants to put it behind them, you're part of the category. the hostile category. the category that is hostile to our democracy, willie. >> well it is important point out as joe said that this is not something that is in the rearview mirror. yes, some republicans are participating with the select committee and in this investigation but look at the race tonight in ohio. only one republican candidate who has said no, the 2020 election was not stolen from donald trump. he is the standout candidate

because he's speaking truth that it wasn't stolen. yes, i'm a republican, we could run on issues, that the not one of them. all the others are climbing over each other to say the election was stolen to curry favor with donald trump. >> and they know, willie, exactly what they're doing. i'm so glad you brought up tonight. because you actually have the person that donald trump endorsed even if he can't remember his name, this is a guy who had the best education, best education that you could possibly have, he went to silicon valley, he went into the tech world, and was successful there. he wrote a book. >> he made a lot of money. >> made a ton of money. he was the toast of the town among the elite media. toast of the town among the elite -- >> the contracts. >> the elite wherever he went. an now he's the one that is

standing up and barking and screaming about stolen elections. see, the thing is it, he knows he's being a liar. he knows it. and donald trump knows that he's lying. because remember he's the same one that said that, well, he's the same one that said good christians wouldn't vote for donald trump. he's the same one that said that donald trump is like -- is america's hitler. i don't know if people remember that. but said that trump was america's hitler. and now he's pushing that big lie. it is grotesque. it is anti-american. and it's just -- he's a liar. he's lying to the people of ohio. he's lying to anybody who will listen. and we have to call a lie a lie. this is one of the things that really when you hear somebody, people on the trump right, they like to talk about truth teller.

when they call someone a truth teller, that is orwellian. and this person knows how to lie specially well or especially shameless in their lies and will say things they don't believe and will say things that actually are contradicted by their own words in one video clip after another video clip after another video clip. it is what andrew sullivan called 30 years ago, death of shame. but shame died on the trump wing of the republican party a long, long time ago. we'll see just see whether republican voters fight to get their party back over the coming months in the primary contests. >> sorry, mika, the most recent example is the kevin mccarthy tapes where he's on tape saying precisely what he said condemning trump and then going out and saying to republicans,

that is not what i said. it is on tape. and the orwellian explanations, that is your voice on tape but i didn't say the thing that you're saying i said. it makes your head skploetd but it has to be called out and it is a disease that -- josh mandel that is running in ohio was the state treasurer. he was a congressman in ohio and now he is under the grip of donald trump and saying things that he wouldn't recognize himself a few years ago saying. >> well steve kornacki will be with us this hour to break down this key ohio republican senate race that could test the grip that donald trump still has on his party. also ahead, we'll have the latest from ukraine where evacuation efforts from this besieged steel plant have appeared to stall. while new reports that russia may soon attempt to annexed part of the eastern ukraine. we'll have an update from john

kirby. >> if you can't win a battle. you can't an ex an area and there is no evidence that things are going any better for vladimir putin and just a sorry russian army in eastern ukraine than it did up near kyiv. >> we'll continue our coverage this morning of the bombshell breaking news out of the supreme court. an unprecedented leak from the highest court in the land. that may upend nearly 50 years of federal protections for abortion rights and decades of precedent, by the way. >> and we learned this through a leaked draft opinion published last night by politico. a majority of the supreme court now appears prepared to overturn the landmark roe v. wade decision. the leak of the 98-page document is unprecedented in the court's modern history. the draft opinion reportedly was authored by justice samuel alito and circulated in february. nbc news has not obtained or been able to verify the

authenticity of the document. the supreme courts that declined to comment. this morning we spoke with josh gerstein who broke the news and former acting solicitor general neal cattal and barbara mcquade and john meacham on how this decision could test our democracy. >> the crisis of trust and institutions has just become universal. in a way that is pretty much the night here scenario if you believe in the ultimate efficacy of the constitutional order to produce a more perfect union, right. to protect the jeffersonian assertion of equality, to protect the rule of law for all its imperfections, the system has been worth defending for 250 years. right now if this draft decision, if the court were to go this far, you will have, as

you were just saying, an extraordinary number of americans believing that the system, in fact, cannot, is not capable of delivering just, is not cape of reflecting the popular will even through the constitutional prism and i think that one of the great questions of the era, the great question of the era, is are you and i, are we in this decade, are we up to democracy? are we commensurate to the task? and i'm worried that we're entering the darkest period of that test. >> the reasoning of this decision is so, as i say, muscular, it could reach other rights as well including the right of marriage equality which was just recognized by the supreme court a few years ago. this is an opinion that robert bork would have written. this is not an opinion that most justices have lifted in our lifetimes would have written and

robert bork was rejected from the court because of these views. >> we're probably about two months away from a decision typically the supreme court's most important and most controversial opinions come out by the end of june occasionally they drag over a little bit into july. and so, these next few weeks are really where the rubber meets the road on this decision. our understanding is obviously publicly this case was argued, it comes out of mississippi on their 15-week abortion ban. but the underlying issue is much, much broughter than that. it is the entire federal constitutional right to abortion. it was argued back on december 1st and this opinion emerged as the first draft majority opinion of the court on february 10th according to a note that is right on the front of the opinion. there is other indications that alito's clerks were at work drafting this in january. so it is been kicking around up there at the court as the sort of main opinion on this

particular abortion case now for about two and a half months. it is unclear whether we've seen any dissents at this point or any revisions to this opinion which we would expect. but based on our reporting from a source familiar with the proceedings at the court, information that both myself and my co-author alex ward obtained, it does appear it has the backing of five conservative justices, that is all five republican appointees on the court. except for chief justice ron roberts who has some reservations it would appear about the recording. >> they've gone full bore in completely removing the right to an abortion. no rape provision, no incest exception, no ifs ands or buts there is no right to abortion in america. that means in those state where's there these trigger laws that say if and when roe v. wade is overturned, then we will

immediately make it illegal to obtain an abortion in our state. there is 13 states with those. there are another zozen or so states including the state of michigan that has old law still on the books. a 1931 law in michigan banning abortion that became unconstitutional when roe was decided in 1973. once roe is gone, that law is back. and so in about half of the states in america, it will be illegal for a person to obtain an abortion. >> and we'll have much more on this breaking news coming up in a few minutes when nbc's kristen welker joins us from the white house. turning now to the war in ukraine. "the associated press" is reporting that according to ukrainian forces, russian soldiers have begun to storm the steel plant in mariupol. earlier today, we heard that they were trying to evacuate 200 civilians still trapped inside of that plant. the evacuation was held up on monday because of intense shelling. roughly 100 people were

evacuated over the weekend. some are being sent to the ukrainian controlled city of zap oreesha and they could arrive sometime today but at associated press said some have been taken to a village controlled by russian backed separatists raising concerns that russia could be moving them against their will. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy said some civilians are now afraid to leave the plant out of fear they will be taken to russia. this morning we spoke with pentagon press secretary admiral john kirby and asked him about the defense department assessment that russian troops are having troubles in the donbas just like they did in kyiv. >> as of this morning, we would still assess that their progress has been plotting for sure, slow, uneven. they continue to face a stiff

ukrainian resistance. the only prorg progress is to the donbas where they've been trying to push to the south and southeast to try to push the ukrainian line of contact further to the east. they've made some minor progress over the past 24 hours but not much. it is give and take for the last 24, 48 hours. >> good morning, i want to ask you about the humanitarian evacuations out of the steel plant in mariupol. we hear a group of civilians did make it out. another effort was thwarted because the russians weren't allowing the conveys through. and also a question to you about where these ukrainian evacuees are ending up. if you're sent to russian territory, that is not the kind of evacuation most people want to see. so what more could you tell us about this those? >> we think the ukrainians have been -- about this, a couple of hundred civilians still at the plant and we continue to ask

them to get them out and get them the ability to move elsewhere inside of their own country. the reports that the people are being taken an bused over to russia, that is just unconscionable and we have no reason to doubt those reports. if you're going to let people go and flee, let them flee at least to their homes or -- or to family and friends inside of their own country. so again, we continue to call on russia to do the right thing here. >> part of our conversation last hour with retired rear admiral john kirby, spokesperson for the department of defense. and joining us now, matt dimick, he was nsc director for russia and eastern director and a regional program manager with the aid group spirit of america and was just in kyiv a few days ago. colonel, it is great to have you with us this morning. so tell me about that trip to kyiv. something jumped out to me that he said afterward, quote, there is no question that ukrainians are destined to thoroughly defeat russian aggression as long as they continue to get the

tools to defend themselves. what did you see on the ground and what gives you that confidence? >> yeah, we were absolutely heartened by what we saw. what we heard. we were delivering several tons of life saving aid to front line troops rotating into the donbas, the body armor and so forth but that allowed us access to several of the ukrainian leaders and the territorial defense force leadership and they were very clear eyed about what they're up against. they understand that the russians have power there in the don bass and will continue to bludgeon their way through that territory. however, the russian trajectory is downward and the ukrainians have the wind at their back. we saw and felt that in the morale and the spirit and the time of plans that the ukrainians were making. they have got artillery that is pouring in, they have mountains of ammunition that supports all of the sophisticated artillery weapons and they're replenishing

units and while the russians are facing steady attrition, ukrainians are building up and that is going to bode well for them in the coming weeks and months i think. >> as you say, you've been hustling millions of dollars worth of aid to the front line through the spirit of america group. who makes up that group, where do you get the money and how do you get that equipment out so quickly? >> yeah, it is an amazing group. it is really something americans should be proud of. our organization, we're very small but intrepid. it is about an organization the size of 30 people who are busy channeling the generosity of the american people into very tailored and direct aid that goes right to the front line troops. so our mission is always been to work alongside the troops and diplomats to defend freedom and save lives and we're enshrined by congress to do that legally and saving lives and extends to our allies and partners. we've been laser focused on ukraine, not just since february but since 2015 and we've been

able to lean on the partnerships that we've developed through the deep networks to really speed aid at scale and very rapidly to get it from the united states on to the ground now where it is going to have an impact and has had an impact in this very intense transition period of the war. where the ukrainians could use it the most. >> so you could give more of a sense, colonel, of the performance of russia on the battlefield. because the atrocities continue. there is reports of ukrainians being brought into russia. there is lots of stories of desperation and brutality being committed on the part of russia. and yet the lead is that russia is not doing well. what stops them, though, are there any strategic options left? >> so, what is going to stop them is we move into the next phase. you're going to see an incredible set of artillery

duels which will decide this. and they are not manned and equipped and have the personnel to do the massive operations outside of the motherland. they're built for territorial defense and for defense in depth. they're out of their league as we've seen month after month here in ukraine. and what you're going to see is plotting russian movements forward while they continue to take hits from the ukrainians and they are going to continue to stumble as they attempt to gain ground. and what you're going to see is these two trajectories collide. russians will get weaker and become less -- they'll have less combat troops on field and as i said, the ukrainians are building up. where the two trajectories cross and when the ukrainians are going to be able to effect their will on the russians, is yet to be seen. but it looks like that is where they're headed. so, we spend all day talking about russian incompetence and there are so many factors to it.

but i think what explains their ineffectiveness and inability is this is not what this was designed for. they did not train for it. and their leadership has not prepared this force to con duck this operation and you're seeing russian soldiers pay for that with their blood. >> retired army colonel matt dimick, thank you very much for being on the show with us. >> thank you. and coming up this hour, on "morning joe," steve kornacki takes us to ohio where "today" is primary day and the race could be the first real test of former president trump's holdover the republican party. plus kristen welker will join us from the white house with her latest reports on the unprecedented leak from the supreme court that roe v. wade may be on the verge of being overturned. and andrew ross sorkin will have reaction from the business community. we'll be right back.

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comcast business. powering possibilities.™ if i get elected president of the united states and the supreme court overrules roe v. wade, i'm going to send legislation to the united states congress to pass it and codify it. >> that was then candidate joe biden on the campaign trail back in 2019 on what he would do if roe v. wade was ever over turned. and that could be closer than

ever to happening. nbc news chief white house correspondent kristen welker joins us now. what is the reaction this morning to the draft supreme court opinion published by politico that indicates roe v. wade will be over turned? >> hi, mika and joe. bottom line this morning, there are shock waves across country and right here at the white house where they are still processing this news. still trying to figure out how exactly to respond. a senior administration official telling me this morning that the white house has not going to comment directly on the leaked report given its unprecedented nature but here is what you could expect today. officials will reiterated president's strong support for roe v. wade, which you just heard there, this as people on both sides of the issue have already made their voices heard at the high court overnight. overnight hundreds gathering at the steps of the u.s. supreme court. protesters erupted there after the dramatic report.

in a joint statement democrats majority leader chuck schumer and nancy pelosi accusing some of the conservative justices on the bench of lying during their confirmation hearings about their willingness to overturn ro. if the report is accurate, the supreme court is poised to inflict the greatest restriction of rights in the past 50 years. while some republicans focusing on the explosive leek. >> this is trying to change the outcome and corrupt the process. >> the president of planned parenthood speaking out overnight. >> never lost a constitutional right. it is absolutely outrageous. >> while the group susan b anthony list which opposed abortion rights say we wholeheartedly applaud the decision. if the high court does overturn roe v. wade, over 20 states are poised to immediately ban abortion according to the gut maucher institute which supports

abortion rights making it certain the fight over roe v. wade will be a major issue in the upcoming midterm elections. >> it makes the election for the house and the senate more important than any we've seen in our lifetime when it comes to the protection of women's rights. >> reporter: so what are people saying about this? well an nbc news poll in august found that a majority of the americans, 54% said abortion should remain legal. and as you just heard, you can expect this will be a new plash point in midterm elections with democrats bracing for the possibility of losses and will they find a way to energize key voters to and build on their momentum. and just taking you behind the scenes, we are anticipating a response from the white house in the form of a written statement. but president biden is traveling to alabama, highlighting a plant building equipment that they are

sending to ukraine. i'll be out there shouting questions to him about this. we'll have to see if he responds. >> nbc news chief white house correspondent kristen welker. we'll be looking for that. thank you very much. and next, we'll talk to andrew ross sorkin about how this decision could force businesses to wade further into polarizing political issues. and steve kornacki will take us inside the heated primary in ohio. that and the morning papers, we're back in just a moment. (upbeat music) - [narrator] this is kate. she always wanted her smile to shine. now, she uses a capful of therabreath healthy smile oral rinse to give her the healthy, sparkly smile she always wanted. (crowd cheering) therabreath, it's a better mouthwash. at walmart, target and other fine stores.

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if you think you have dupuytren's contracture, there's a simple test you can take—from anywhere. try to lay your hand flat against a surface. if you can't, you may have dupuytren's contracture. talk to a hand specialist about your options, including nonsurgical treatments. it is 6:31 in the morning in los angeles. some low lying clouds as you wake up. 9:31 on the east coast. joining us now, co-anchor of cnbc squawk box, andrew ross sorkin. we've been talking all morning about this dpraft decision from the subpoena which looks like the country is headed toward striking down roe v. wade. we've been talking in the last several weeks alone about florida and disney an the legislation down and there and companies having to step into the fray and take a stand at

their political peril. you could imagine what is about to happen, the pressure that is about to be brought by employees, by consumers of some of the major companies. >> i don't have to just imagine it, willie, coy tell you i've been on the phone on texting with ceos all morning who themselves have been getting emails and texts from their own employees on this issue already. which is to say, what are these business going to do, are they going to speak out, are they not going to speak out? it is a big, big issue. amazon, i should just mention announced they are paying for employees who need to go out of state for abortions. this is before we heard about this news. so you're going to start to see i think a bifurcation in terms what companies speak out and how they do and it goes to the issue you just mentioned which is a lot of companies have seen what happened in florida with what desantis did in the case of that don't say gay bill with disney. and i think that there is a real anxiety increasingly about

speaking out on these issues. i don't know if you remember, but a couple of years back, netflix, disney, warner media, nbc universal spoke out against the lgbt bill being pursued if the state of georgia and said they would pull out of filming pictures and television shows if that bill went through. would they do that again today if this becomes law. and again, it becomes even more complicated because it is not just one state, it is going to be 20. and we've also seen a number of big companies, multi-national companies, global companies, that historically have done business on coast, starting to move to other places like austin, texas, for example, and how they relate to things there. this is not just imaginary. this is already becoming a real issue and whether people speak out even before the decision, i think it is the next piece of this puzzle. >> and so andrew, over the past several days especially in the

wake of ron desantis punishing disney because of what they said, because of their exercising free speech, and punishing them with state power. i've read a lot of articles and i know you have too about the republican party's war on business. republicans were once business closest allies but now there seems to be more of a break between business and republicans, especially governors. what could you tell us? what do you hear on the street? what could you tell us, what could you tell us about how this is playing out in realtime? >> look, what is happening is a -- there is a real shift in terms of the way, i think the business community thinks about the republican party and the way that the republican party thinks about business. having said that, i think we're now at a point and i think that

the desantis piece was crucial to this and you saw it by the way in georgia on voting rights when delta came out publicly and state tried to take its tax incentives away. you're starting to see ceos say maybe i shouldn't speak out. maybe i should actually be quieter. but if i am, will i lose my job, will i lose my employees. i think this is the debate. and whether you're going to see more money continuing to go to republicans on tax issues and the like, or whether the social issues almost overtake some of these economic issues and whether the economic issues are social issues. so, but i do think there is a split and you're starting to see it. we have paul jones on squawk box this morning that made it clear what his position was, was that he believes abortion should be allowed and i think that that is the prevailing view of most ceos in america. you've made the point this

morning, joe, that 70% of america feels this way. and that is going to be what 70% of employees are going to feel. and therefore, if you're leading a big business today, what do you do? what do you say? >> i mean, it is a great question. i mean, you look at these numbers and i know when the disney case, in the disney case there was a lot of concern from disney, how do they balance what republican legislators wanted to stay with some of the younger employees and we talk about younger employees on some of the divisive social issues you, about i'm looking at numbers. forbes, just got some numbers off of forbes and you're exactly right, the overwhelming majority of americans in three polls that were cited in a forbes article this morning say that americans support roe v. wade. they don't want it overturned.

so these are not a bunch ofwoke kids that just got out of college and tugging on the ears of old ceos. there is going to be -- younger more kids, these are going to be the ceos, these are going to be former main street republicans, these are going to be, again, these are going to be women running companies, men who run companies, who has wives and daughters at home who are saying are you kidding me? this is going to be so widespread that there is going to have be new calculus by a lot of the corporations because consumers are overwhelmingly against this too. >> and then the question is this just the beginning. as you have already reported, if you read through that draft, if you believe that this is the beginning of an even larger culture war on same-sex marriage, on frankly being

allowed to be gay unto itself and whether you believe the supreme court is going to approach those issues in a different way than they have before. and then whether companies are going to speak out even more loudly. so i think that there is -- we are in uncharted territories. i think most of the business community is not sure frankly what to do. and it is going to be something to watch. >> all right. andrew ross sorkin thank you very much. we just have a statement now from the president on this. and i think it is important to just -- he makes three points and the third one is the post important. first he stands by roe v. wade. he believe that's a woman's right to choose is fundamental. it is been the law of the land for almost 50 years. secondly, he pointed out that he, after the enactment of the texas law and other laws restricting women as reproductive rights that he directed his gender policy council and the white house council office to prepare

options. but most importantly the third here. he said if the court does overturn roe it will fall on elected officials at all levels of government to protect a women's right to choose. and it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this november at the federal level, we will need more pro-choice senators and a pro-choice majority in the house to adopt legislation that codified roe, which i will work to pass and sign into law. >> coming up on "morning joe," a look at stories making the front pages across the country. including florida governor ron desantis pushing for an open carry gun law in his state. good lord. it goods even further than that. i mean there is seriously -- thinking about a run for president, it is just unbelievable. actually with consequences. >> also how flight cancellations continue to persist for airlines even as major carriers staff up for what is expected to be a

busy summer travel season. that is next on "morning joe."

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all right. denver, colorado. >> you know what denver is celebrating today. >> what are they celebrating today? >> well other than joe and willie liberation day. they're celebrating willie geist's birthday. >> willie, we never got to wish him a happy birthday. it is a hard day in the news. >> it was hard to tell. >> yeah, it was -- >> is that what that was? >> 44 past the hour. time no take a look at morning papers and we'll start in illinois and the chicago tribune has an alarming weekend of violence that forced the

cancelation of sunday night's performance of the musical moulin rouge after two separate shooting incidents left one person dead. utah's spectrum and daily news highlights the leap in the state's covid cases. new coronavirus cases in utah climbed more tan 40% over the past week when nearly 1700 new cases reported. >> to new jersey where the asbury park press is pushing works to get back into the office. the state agency that overseed $8.7 billion in tax breaks announced business is claiming those incentives will have to bring workers back to work at least part-time starting this summer in order to keep those benefits and in florida the st. lucie tribune said the governor has vowed to pass a bill that will allow florida residents to publicly carry firearms even if they're not taken a training course or received a permit.

the governor desantis said state legislature will pass the bill before he has completed his term as governor. >> i just have to say, there is just an ongoing effort to be as reckless as possible. i mean, it's just absolute insanity. in a state where we saw parkland, that now we're talking about this. again, it is all virtue signaling. the only problem is, mika, as we've seen, there are consequences attached to this. and but. >> i couldn't agree with you more. >> it is the republican party especially in florida. >> to the atlanta journal constitution which report that's flight cancellations continue to persist. from u.s. airlines even as carriers staff up for what is expected to be a busy summer travel season. according to the u.s. bureau of

transportation, airlines canceled 4.5% of domestic flights in february. after canceling 6.3% of flights in january amid the omicron varpt. >> i think it is getting worse. >> it feels like it. >> the cancellations seem to be going up even more. >> an in the nebraska, they are calling on president biden to cancel student loan debt. this is a big debate. about 43 million americans owe $1.6 trillion on their student loans. critics caution for giving the debt might anger voters who already paid off their loans. >> it is not popular in the polls. joe biden keeps talking about it. he keeps talkingin kre. al -- incremental steps because of what the newspaper said, it is not popular with voters.

>> coming up, voters in ohio are headed to the polls in a major test for former president trump. >> we just came from dayton and i spoke at a podium and it said josh mandel for u.s. senate, pro god, pro trump and i believe in so strong for that trump delivered for my people here in the state of ohio. >> save this guy. save us. >> that guy right there was the pandemic who did not get trump's endorsement. >> isn't that jp mandel? >> it is just -- >> the clown show. >> steve kornacki will be with us on the other side of the break. we're back in two minutes. feeling out of sync? new dove men stress-relief body wash... with a plant-based adaptogen, helps alleviate stress on skin. so you can get back in sync. new dove men. a restorative shower for body and mind. ♪ it wasn't me by shaggy ♪

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i had been giving koli kibble. it never looked like real food. with the farmer's dog you can see the pieces of turkey. it smells like actual food. as he's aged, he's still quite energetic and youthful. i really attribute that to diet. get started at longlivedogs.com what would the result of this race say about the republican party today? >> i think that the race is really about, again, what kind of republican party do we want

to have? do we want to have a america-first republican party or a party that shifts jobs overseas? >> j.d. vance yesterday in the state campaigning. today is a primary contest many look at as the first key test of former president trump's grip on the republican party ahead of the midterms. the candidate you heard, j.d. vance, is leading slightly, the republican primary in ohio, to replace outgoing senator rob portman. trump endorsed him over josh mandel. at a telerally yesterday, former president trump said he likes all of the candidates. he also called the primary a mess. this is the beginning of a primary race, with key races on the 17th. and the georgia governor race on the 24th. from the big board, political

correspondent, steve kornacki. great to have you with us today. lay out the stakes and the field for us in ohio, where president trump seems to be hedging in case his guy doesn't win. >> a jumbled picture. but there is a clear test of donald trump's pull with republican primary voters. this is an open race here. no incumbent. rob portman not running. and trump has weighed in after just about -- just at all of the candidates, you see on the screen here, really strongly quartered his endorsement. he went with j.d. vance. we have three polls that have come out in the last week. you're looking at the average of all of the polls. it is jumbled. there's a couple things we can say. number one, j.d. vance in the average, has a slight lead coming into election day. it's only three polls. it can take that for what it's worth. but j.d. vance for the last year, year and a half, this race was polled, was not running in first place. in the average coming into the

primary day, he's in first place. this is a test of trump's clout with republican voters, he weighed in and he let his presence be known. he was courted by the other candidates. if he's able to lift j.d. vance to a victory, you mentioned the other races that are coming up in the next couple weeks in pennsylvania. trump has made his preference known there. mehmet oz in the senate race. in north carolina, he has a preference. georgia, we know how involved he's been in georgia. this is a test of trump's clout. can he take a candidate, not running in first and get that candidate across the finish line? and if trump is able to do that, the question becomes, is that going to embolden him a bit heading into the other primaries, the rest of the month and the rest of the primary season, to push harder for a candidate like dr. oz. his lead is very slight.

mandel is going after trump voters. gibbons went hard after the endorsement. the state republican chair when donald trump was president. became the republican chair because of loyalty to trump. all four of the candidates really have gone hard after donald trump and his supporters. what's interesting is this name right here. this is the wild card tonight. matt dolan. trump said he kind of likes all of the candidates. he's attacked matt dolan in the last couple weeks. he issued statements. he said that's the one candidate he does not want to win this primary. dolan is the one candidate who has condemned donald trump over his actions on and around january 6th. he said that trump perpetuated lies about the 2020 election. and there was a moment in a debate between all of the candidates when they were asked, raise your hand if you think that donald trump should stop talking about the 2020 election, one candidate raised his hand.

he has earned the ire of trump. and there's some indications of the polling in the final days of this campaign, of movement in dolan's direction. it's interesting if mandel, gibbons and vance, if they split up the vote. does it open up a lane for the one candidate that donald trump has identified as the candidate he does not want to win this primary. that's a dynamic that's been introduced in the final couple days of this campaign. that's one we will keep a close eye on. it's a jumbled picture. one other race to keep an eye on, the governor, the incumbent, mike dewine. he's facing two challenges in the primary. you see the average of the polling. dewine looks to be in good here. renacci tried to get donald trump involved. there's a third candidate, joe blystone, who made an issue over the covid restrictions that dewine put in place during the pandemic. we'll keep an eye on it, but the

polling indicates that dewine is in good shape during this primary. >> let me ask you about governor dewine. governor dewine is one of the few republican governors willing to come out throughout the covid crisis and be responsible. he was responsible, from what i can recall, from the beginning. we had him on the show several times. he talked about what he was doing in ohio. you would think that given the direction of the ohio republican party, he would be punished. but mike dewine has remained the mainstreet republican in many aspects that usually gets punished in the age of trump or in the post-trump age. how is he sitting at 46% today? >> one thing to keep in mind joe, this is a large lead that dewine has in the polling, 46. but add 29 and 17 together and you get 46.

one of this thing thats that benefited him, is when this race was taking shape, was that renacci was going to have a one-on-one with dewine. he had run for the senate with trump's endorsement. he believed getting into this race, that he would take what you're describing, channel that into an endorsement from donald trump, and get a one-on-one contest with dewine and maybe be able to sort of condense that anti-dewine/pro-trump vote. i think renacci has struggled as a candidate. we saw this with him in 2018. and what's happened, is this guy, joe blystone, has surprised everybody. a business owner that said, i am the face of what mike dewine did to business owners, did to businesses with his covid restrictions. if you didn't like that, i'm your guy. and blystone has gotten traction with that, as well. dewine may be benefits from split opposition here.

>> steve kornacki, thank you. steve will be at the big board at 6:00 p.m. eastern, to break down the ohio and indiana primary results. steve, thank you so much. >> thanks, steve. >> really appreciate it. we'll be watching that and talk about it all over again tomorrow morning. plus, more on the breaking news overnight, pertaining to roe v. wade. that does it for us this morning. (johnny cash) ♪ i've traveled every road in this here land! ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ crossed the desert's bare, man. ♪ ♪ i've breathed the mountain air, man. ♪ ♪ of travel i've had my share, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere. ♪ ♪ i've been to: pittsburgh, parkersburg, ♪ ♪ gravelbourg, colorado, ♪ ♪ ellensburg, cedar city, dodge city, what a pity. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere, man. ♪ ♪ i've been everywhere. ♪ finding the perfect designer isn't easy.

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