that's the planning effect. from fidelity. if it's friday, it's the economy. a strong jobs report closes out a topsy-turvy week of news as the administration tries to grabble with surging inflation, interest rate hikes and wild market swings and the messaging challenges that go with that ahead of the midterms. and the news is the u.s. did, indeed, help with ukraine sinking the moskva. i will speak with one democratic governor's whose state is

bracing for an influx of women from neighboring states with fewer access. fewer access good friday to you. welcome to "meet the press daily." i am chuck todd. the biden administration faces difficult questions from voters which continues to be the economy. how does it slow inflation without slowing down the economy? how does the administration sell a cooler economy when it struggled to sell the hot one that it began with. this morning the labor department reported that 428,000 new jobs were created last month, beating economists estimates with the rate, and this is a robust jobs market, folks, and right now president biden is on his way to the cincinnati area to sell his economic agenda, and the fed

took a major step raising interest rates by half a point. it's the largest engel increase in two decades, and efforts to slow down the economy could trigger a recession. it's leaving the party in a perilous position, as they face the prospect of a cooler economy and voters unhappy with the handling of the issue even when the economy was going gang busters. and according to our march nbc news poll, a majority of americans, 56% expect a recession in the next year, according to a recent cnbc poll that uses the same polling firm. and marty walsh acknowledged the administration must improve its messaging on this critically important issue at this incredibly critically important moment. >> when inflation is high, and

they are working in a job they are not happy about, we as an administration, and when i say administration i am talking about myself and other members of the administration, because the president is out there every day, and we need to do a better job talking to the american people about what we are doing on their behalf. >> and joining me now, austin ghoulsby. he is now a professor at the university of chicago's school of business. let me start with you. straight up, how would you describe the state of the american economy right now? >> well, i would say that the state of the american economy is actually rather strong but set against this problem of inflation. you see the jobs numbers. the jobs numbers look good. in a normal world, you would say this is a great economy. the problem is that wages just aren't keeping up with costs and so you would turn around and say

actually it's not such a great economy, and that's the conundrum, and that's the conundrum the federal reserve faces. >> why are markets reacting the way they reacted this week, which is pretty pessimistic. >> the markets are finally coming to a realization, and why it has turned out to be such a surprise in the last two days, i thinks a real question. there's a realization that the only instrument -- it's a blunt instrument the federal reserve has is to tamp down demand. by default, they are trying to tamp down the demand and turn the economy in a traverse way, almost negative, because the truth is that we still have a huge supply problem, whether it's semiconductors, the cost of gas because there's not enough of it, and whether it's -- whether it's labor unto itself.

if you can't control the supply, the only thing you can do is try to effectively hurt demand, and that's what they are effectively trying to do. >> austin, walk me through this and how we know if this is working, right? is it as simple as we see our grocery bill get cheaper. is it really how we look at this? what will the fed look at to decide, hey, our interest rate hikes are working? >> i think it depends who you are. are you a consumer or are you the fed? the fed is in a tough spot. they are trying to balance out the economy on one hand roarin' hot. the unemployment is 3.6% and we added over 400 jobs in a month. in previous times that would be almost unbelievable. you wouldn't think you could add that many jobs when the unemployment rate is that low.

at the same time, it's not going to be that the prices actually shrink. that would be negative inflation or deflation, but this 5, 6, 7% growth rates over a year absolutely the fed wants to see those coming down. if we get continued good fortune on the covid front, that people for whatever reason, even as the numbers have gone up, there isn't the same level of fear. it is conceivable we could get out of the covid era of the economy, let's say, by the end of the summer, in which case it might relieve some of the supply problems andrew was talking about, that people could go back to spending money on services instead of physical goods where we are having the supply shortages. if that happened, prices might come down without there being a recession. if not, and the war escalates

and we see commodities prices and gas prices and those things continue to go up, the fed is going to risk putting us into recession to try and keep the inflation from growing. >> austin, if you were appointed the inflation czar at the white house, and i have talked to a few who think actually like covid this should be something that somebody's portfolio might be the spokesperson, so if you got the task, what else would you be focused on? the fed is the fed, right? there's not much more you can do to job own the fed if you are the administration, and what could the administration do to help relieve -- realistically to help relieve this pressure? >> not a lot. if you are going to take a job as the inflation czar in the white house at a time of inflation, you better not be afraid to take a punch, because that's mostly what you are going

to do. the reason we normally think of the fed as being the tip of the sphere of inflation is they can move -- they have channels that can move more rapidly than fiscal policy. i think for sure you can work the edges like in fuel, you can release the strategic petroleum reserve, and you can have the defense reduction act to release the shortages, but it's not under the control of the federal government. fiscal policy is nowhere. they are not going to do any fiscal policy, and i think that would be a pretty tough job. >> what you are saying essentially it's the fed or bust right now? >> yeah, it's the fed or bust -- hopefully not both, it's the fed or bust. >> andrew, this is a global issue, this inflation story meaning how much can -- if we're

the only one acting, and you tell me, are central banks going to act all over the world and is this going to be a concerted sort of western effort here, or are we alone right here in trying to tame this? >> well, everybody is trying to tame it. the problem is we are actually probably in a better position than most when we are the cleanest of the dirty shirts in the laundry today, and in europe right now they face an even greater conundrum in large part because if you feel fuel prices are high here, they are worse there and it's harder to control. all of this comes back to the supply issue, which is how can you get supplies whether it be gasoline, semiconductor chips and labor to be cheaper and to be working. that's a function of landing the plan on covid, by the way, and the problem in china right now

are creating its own problems, and i don't think they will solve the problem immediately. the other conundrum is when you start to spend immediately in certain ways you actually create more of the inflation problem, so we are having a debate in the country about student debt, for example, and a lot of people think we should relieve student debt, and you relieve student debt and in a very perverse way it could create more inflation. all of this becomes so super complicated. >> austin, i was going to ask you about student debt and andrew brought it up. i mean, as fiscal policy, this seems like the wrong time to do it. i understand the political pressure the president is under. >> yeah, look, i have -- a lot of this is coming from congress and there are many different proposals. as you know, i have not been a big fan of blanket writing off everybody's debt, because if you go and look at the numbers, there are a lot of high income

people with medical school debt, business school debt and that sort of thing that it feels like you might have a better policy aiming somewhere else. i still think one of the fundamental things that happened here in covid is that americans normally spend most of their money on services and because of covid they have not been able to spend money on services, and they went out and the demand for tvs and exercise equipment and houses and a whole bunch of physical goods broke the supply chain because it never has been higher. if we can get out of covid and go back to spending on -- i am not spending on hair cuts, and people going to the dentist and on vacation and restaurants, that will put -- that will give some relief on the supply chain and we got to just hope that the fed, which is doing what it should do to try and move back

to a normal position that they just don't do that with too much emphasis that it drives us to recession. >> austin, the less hair i got the more i have to get hair cuts, because it's the stragle. >> once you lose enough, that's no longer true. >> watching a spiral on wages and prices. we saw wage growth not keeping up with inflation, and there's the trigger we don't want to get to where suddenly we send up with stagflation. how do we avoid that? >> and that is that the other potential problem that we might face, which is to say if interest rates go up too much, which means the credit card bills go up because the interest rate is up and the mortgage rate is up and there's less money to go around, and companies frankly can't hire on the other side,

you're in the worst of all worlds. when people say land the plane, or we're going to have a soft landing, and it means there's got to be a landing of some sort and it's just how hard is it? and with secretary powell said softish, you rarely hear a fed chair say that out loud, and the markets operate on how the markets should look. >> austin, very quickly, at best, stability and inflation is a year away if everything goes well? >> i don't think so. i actually think if we can get past covid, the new inflation that is the months of the summer, you could see inflation go down pretty significantly and then we would be feeling a lot

better about the landing. if we continue to see the new months of inflation coming in hot, then that's going to push the fed to act more aggressively and then i think all bets are off. >> all right. the most important thing i learned here is austin needs to have a weekly barber visit and if we do that, we can fix the economy. stop bragging about your hairdo, andrew. not fair. not fair. anyway, thank you both. >> nice to see you. thank you. let me turn now to ukraine. nbc news was the first to report its u.s. intelligence that was shared with ukraine that helped their military target and sink russia's flagship last month, and dealing russia a significant and embarrassing blow. u.s. intelligence identified the ship as the moskva, and kirky said the u.s. did not provide

specific targeting and was not in the decision to strike the ship, and one of those nondenials denials. and then on the ground, secretary general says nearly 500 civilians were able to evacuate, and president zelenskyy says it's torture and starvation is being used as a weapon of war. let me check in with matt bradley who is in ukraine for us. it's interesting to see the reports come out. of course it's the ukrainian military that acted on the operational intelligence here, and this is an open secret that nato and the u.s. intelligence is being shared. it sort of -- you know, is there a point of making this more public? is it a way to taunt the russians here? how is it being received to have all of this be so public? >> i mean, the russians have

said they have no confirmation of that, and they deny the ship was actually sunk. for the russians, this is just a big face-saving effort. everything they are doing is trying to conceal the truth from their public and trying to make it seem as though they are winning the war. chuck, we are about to see a massive exercise in just that coming up on monday, may 9th. that's the victory day when the russians will be celebrating the anniversary of their defeat and their western allies, including the western's defeat of the nazis in world war ii. this is where they will put up yet again another massive charade for the public back at home and they must becoming increasingly skeptical what the war is about and what the loss tallies are, and so for them --

for the russians, for vladimir putin, all of this is about deflection, including this issue with the boat. >> well, what he says on monday is obviously going to be of interest to a lot of people. matt bradley in ukraine for us, matt, thank you. coming up, the other large issue of the week. how the nation's governors are scrambling to prepare for a post roe world. the democrat of colorado joins me next. and yet another bizarre twist in the political times that donald trump has given us. you're watching "meet the press daily." you're watching "meet the press daily.% re newable energy in our operations. aiming to protect, manage or restore millions of acres of land.

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are racing to address a post roe war. oklahoma's governor signed a abortion ban into law, and that allows citizens to try to criminalize abortion procedures. three more states indicated they would move to further limit abortion rights once roe is overturned. only half of the states are expected to keep abortion available. they are bracing for an influx of patients from surrounding states. i am joined by the governor of colorado who just signed into an abortion access bill while other states move to restrict it. you look at wyoming, kansas and utah, three states that border

colorado and all three will have less access for women on this issue for reproductive rights, making colorado likely a western almost sanctuary state of sorts. what do you need to do to prepare for that likelihood? >> well, you know, republicans -- i do mean republicans, because this has become a partisan issue, and colorado's first law making abortion criminal was signed into law by a republican governor, and republicans are obsessed with taking away freedom and micromanaging when and how people have families, one of the most intimate decisions. it's a scary time for many americans, particularly in areas where their freedoms are being stripped away by their elected leaders. >> you have been one of the few democrats to, i think, frame it this way, that it's an issue of

freedom, government control, you know, and it does seem when you sort of realize we're actually having government tell women when they have to stay pregnant, and i think sometimes people, you know, get their backup when you frame it that way but that's essentially where we are headed. what other freedoms are you concerned about that could get rolled back? >> it's horrific in some of the states, chuck. if a woman is forcibly impregnated or raped, the government is saying they are forcing you to have that child. we are seeing in other states where they are trying to micromanage what words you use in the schools, can't say gay, and that sort of activity. this is just not the role of government. let people live. people are very savvy, and they can control their own bodies, of course, and they should be able to control and have a say over what their kids are saying at

school and not have the state interfere with that. >> what is a better way -- look, doing this via the states is going to mean that essentially if a woman lives in utah, they will have less rights than if they live in colorado. it seems astonishing to me that we will have a judiciary that is go to go allow that to happen. at some point, i think people will want to see this codified in congress. you were in congress. what would a codified law look like on the federal level? >> of course i would support a codification. what is scary is there will be a human toll to this. when you criminalize abortion, you put doctors in jail and women in jail, and you don't end abortion but make it more risky. in many of the states it will return to the era of back alley

abortions with under qualified well-intended people performing abortions, and people will die. there's no question if this decision moves forward, people will die. >> if i am not mistaken, you started to send a message to corporations who may be uncomfortable doing business in states that make it harder for them to hire employees. do you see an opportunity for colorado to become home to more of these corporations? >> yeah, we're open for business. when governor desantis attacked disney because of their political advocacy for lgbtq rights, i was, frankly, just taken back. in colorado, i don't care if your organization is conservative or liberal and i don't care what your health care plan does, we have a home for you and we don't retaliate based on your politics, and that's what putin does and that's what

chavez did and maduro, and this is not what america is about. you are free to have your political opinion, whatever it is, and the state will not have retribution against you because of that. i think that's a sweet spot for colorado's competitiveness, and we are attracting companies across the country and world because of that, and whether we get disney world or not, we'll see, but lots of companies are coming to colorado. >> i want to talk to you about the economic situation. you were early on advocating wanting to see the white house focus more on the cost of living issues. what is realistic that government could do, and i don't know if you heard our economists that were just on, and they said essentially, look, it's the fed or bust here. everything the government is doing is around the edges. is that the message we have to send? >> they missed a big solution, and i hope you can bring it up with them next time. the two biggest things our federal government can do for

inflation, and get rid of tariffs, and not raise tariffs on some of the countries, but reduce tariffs and immigration reform. we have a labor shortage in our economy right now, and we can fix it through the rule of law with immigration reform, and immigration reform and rolling back tariffs would solve some of the problems, and here in colorado we cut the income taxes twice and doing everything we can do to help americans hold on to their hard earned money. >> the fact of the matter is what you suggest is exactly what every other economists suggested as well. good to see you, sir. still to come, the power of trump's endorsement put to the test yet again next week in a primary contest shaken up by multiple allegations of groping.

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♪ life can be a lot to handle. ♪ this magic moment ♪ but heinz knows there's plenty of magic in all that chaos. ♪ so different and so new ♪ ♪ was like any other... ♪ welcome back. tuesday's primaries are coming up this tuesday. not big states, but trump has something on the line in nebraska. all eyes on the gubernatorial

race. there's groping allegations. meanwhile in west virginia, we're following a contest on the right that could answer the question who is the ultimate king maker, donald trump or joe manchin. yes, they are on the opposite sides of the republican primary. and trump is backing congressman alex moody, and manchin has thrown his support in for the other candidate. betsy, straight up, donald trump, i feel like if you want to believe donald trump's grip on the party is loosening, you

say 68% supported somebody not named vance, and you could say a win is a win and watch next week? >> i think the challenge is it's more complicated and frankly, more messy than that. in ohio, we saw trump's endorsement mattered in part because it brought money with it, and if you didn't have both of those factors, we can't know what would have happened if both factors had not materialized at the same time. clearly that was part of the reason things went as well as they did for vance on election night. that's a thread to keep an eye on over the course of the midterms. how much money does he spend and does he have a game-changing role in arizona, and these two men, trump and teal keep teaming up in ways where teal is able to dramatically amplify trump's

endorsement. >> was it teal's money or trump's endorsement? >> trump wants to keep teal happy, and he's a wealthy and powerful person, and he doesn't need teal to be an enemy, and that could benefit trump. >> political american oligarchs. it's something we are seeing a number of, and the entire republican slate will be funded by a couple millionaires here. michael, assess if trump's grip is loosening? >> no, it's tightening. he won 22 candidates in iowa. i would say from a political standpoint, i take your analysis more broadly, but from a

political standpoint, absent trump vance doesn't win that primary. it has been reinforced and amplified by the dollars that will come behind it. the problem is the one that mitch mcconnell is focused on. it's great to win the primary, but you have to win a general, baby, and the reality of it is whether it's herbstir, or vance, winning those seats in general elections as the air politically for republicans becomes more toxic. i mean, we have not begun to open the realities that are going to hit from the supreme court yet, because the decision has not been made final. you have other rulings on affirmative action and others coming out in june. this now stretches into -- instead of running on a shorter field, say, july to august, september, you now begin in may,

and mcconnell is looking at how do we try and take advantage of that on the senate side and how does that impact us holding -- you know, getting the ground we need in the house? these candidates are going to be coming up in elections where the general narrative won't be that great with trump on -- you know, backing them. >> it's funny. it's like trump's personal behavior has not been an impediment enough, right, in certain places, and you have the eric situation and junior is behind him, and herschel walker allegations are just -- you know, when you read them, at some point this must hurt the party, no? >> we keep telling ourselves that. >> some voters could be offended -- >> well, the words that have been in my -- circling around my

brain are motivated reasoning. you and i tell ourselves at some point female voters that last i checked were more than half of the voting population are going to be offended here, but we didn't see it with "access hollywood" and we are not seeing it now. there's lot of motivated reasoning. i agree with you in trying to look at these results and saying, well, maybe he's not so strong. i wonder what we will be saying after georgia, though trump has, to his credit, he has gotten better at his choosing. some of the candidates you just mentioned not withstanding. >> yeah, i want to bring up georgia, and you should note, david perdue is struggling, and i will put up this tweet. you can either going to fight

for the sanctity of life or not. to me this is a desperation employ on purdue's part. we know this. what is ironic here, every other actual elected republican, the last thing they want to talk about is abortion. >> yeah, they want to talk about leaks from the supreme court, and the inflation. georgia is really interesting, because it actually speaks to the limits of the value of trump's endorsement. the fact that purdue is not just losing but losing by double digits and having to call for special sessions and do other sorts of things shows how actually the trump endorsement -- he doesn't magically snap his fingers and decide who will be the nominee. we saw it in alabama where he endorsed allegedly woke mo brooks, and brooks was losing and trump didn't want to endorse somebody who was a loser. >> how does he back out of purdue?

>> he can't because of the opponent. >> he's in too deep. >> yeah, on that one. >> and he hates brian kemp too much. >> right. at the end of the day, when you are look at those two, kemp is the thing he wants to be removed away from. >> i saw an attempt by national democrats to come up with an economic message that embraces the good and tries to focus on the not-so-good. here's the ad. curious what you will think. >> two years ago we were in crisis, and democrats rescued the economy, 7.9 million new jobs and a record drop in unemployment, and now they are tackling gas prices by releasing 1 million of barrels per day from the oil reserves and just passed a $35 per cap on insulin.

michael? it's an effort. >> hey, it's about time. you can say it's a little late, but, look, folks are beginning to re-evaluate the landscape going back to what i was saying before with the enter interruptions by the supreme court, and the pocketbook issues, it's the feel your pain kind of approach, and i think by and large voters largely want to know that you know that we feel this, that $4 a gallon, $5, 6 hurts, and inflation is hurting. it's not about having an absolute prescription for it, but it is at least acknowledging it. all the republicans have done is acknowledge the pain. they have not offered the solutions. >> the solutions are anti-their base, which is more immigrants, and that would be solution one, and take away tariffs. >> that's not a solution on the immigrants. it's feel your pain to the extent you have it, and feel

your pain and do what we can about it, which is not very much, okay. a million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve, you still know what you are paying when you are at the pump. $35 insulin cap, it helps people and sends a message, but that's a pretty -- in the face of significant inflation, that's a pretty weak offering. >> and the insulin cap has not become law yet. it's surprising democrats are campaigning on that when they have not delivered on that. >> message to schumer. >> that's the house pac. >> it's weird democrats are saying look what we did, and it's not reality. >> yeah, explain that to voters. >> quickly, bill simmons had something called the tyson zone, and meaning any story about mike

tyson became believable. of course he would fire missiles over into mexico. trump is the tyson zone. it's all believable. >> what is fascinating, esper's explanation of why he couldn't stay and tell us about this -- don't make faces. >> yeah, off the record, you don't understand what would replace me? that's the excuse. >> some are correct about that. if jeff rosenberg had left, that excuse is often -- everybody uses it and sometimes it's true. >> in nonelected positions, yes. in the elected positions -- >> no. >> thank you all. up next, a deep dive into the key role the black church continues to play in democratic

politics. we will get a look at our podcast. you're watching "meet the press daily." ast. you're watching "meet the press daily.

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welcome back. if it's friday there's a new episode of "meet the press reports" on youtube, and we take a deep dive with the democratic party and the black church. all but dooming his bid for president until in south carolina, black voters gave him a win over bernie sanders. the power was clear and has been for decades. that influence is rooted in the work of black pastors. in a moment when democrats need all the help they can help, is the power waning and is the help

becoming more secular and elite. and the black church is getting older. will they get younger congregates. joshua, what did you find? >> i think some of the challenges that affect the democratic party, is people drifting to different kinds of political engagement and finding other ways to engage besides large institutions, and being interested in off-year elections, and that term is often questionable, and the pastors i spoke with said they have to find an array of ways to keep people connected and it could be frustrating. one of the pastors i spoke to was greg louis in milwaukee. here's a clip from "mtp daily" reports. >> it's not easy to get voters fired up, especially without a big race on the ballot.

reverend lewis says his own fire goes out often. >> like you understand, you know, how frustrating it can be, you can't even imagine because, you know, you said something, man, i am not responsible for you, and that's why it hurts me so much, because i -- >> you feel that responsibility? what is that responsibility? can you elaborate on that? >> see, i know these people and that's why i don't give up, because i can see it. i know one of these days, wow, things are going to be different. i know it. so if i stop now the -- the blessing god has for us, for me, will be lost, so i can't stop.

>> the fervor reverend lewis showed, the pastors say they can be aligned. they are clear their allegiance is to god first and the democratic party relationships with them is transactional. we will see if that changes, chuck, particularly with the draft from the supreme courtroom coming out, and how that might or might not mobilize people remains to be seen. >> the generational challenge, and i go back and this is every institution including our -- including media, if you will. >> yeah. for sure. it's a generational challenge that i think the democrats are dealing with, and even more seasoned pastors i spoke to said they have hope young people could lead these communities,

and if they engage in that way they can find new votes. >> hope you can catch that report down the road. you can catch the entire episode of "meet the press reports" available on demand on peacock or it available now on peacock and tune in for more on my podcast. and check out joshua's show on 8 p.m. eastern. and up next, an exciting announcement from all of here on "meet the press daily." e press . tell your doctor about new or worsening eye problems such as eye pain or vision changes, including blurred vision, joint aches and pain or a parasitic infection. don't change or stop asthma medicines without talking to your doctor.

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welcome back. some of you may have heard our big announcement today. we are launching a new show, the nbc news live streaming network. everyone here and the entire "meet the press" team are pretty excited about this of course. as we head into the mid term season and as news now continues its rapid growth as a straight-up news channel, this is the right moment for this show to make the move. "meet the press now" is what we like to call the meet the press universe. more coming your way as we work to bring our top notch political coverage to as many folks as possible on as many places as possible. and in our on-demand world,

"meet the press live" will be streaming live and it will be available doing pod casts and all different ways and this show will allow you to get it on your terms. we will remain the place on the weekdays for understanding the political landscape with our usual discussion and analysis of the top political news. we cover politics as it is and believe we can explain it better than anyone else in this business. in a couple of weeks i'll hand the baton for the 1 p.m. show to chris jansing, will be the host of msnbc reports. so for the entire team, thank you all who have watched us over the years. we thank you to our news division leadership for supporting us and we are thrilled to take this step into

the nbc news and "meet the press" and i should thank the leaders the msnbc who is about supportive throughout all of this. and if it's sunday, it's "meet the press" on your local news station. we'll continue after this break with yasmin vossoughian. ue afte with yasmin vossoughian. eliquis reduces stroke risk better than warfarin. and has less major bleeding than warfarin. eliquis has both. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner.

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hey, everybody. good to be with you. i'm yasmin vossoughian in for my friend katy tur. we are in for a wild week with the stock market. yet another month of job growth, employers adding nearly half a million jobs in april, slightly higher than predictions. unemployment remaining unchanged at 3.6%. during the height of covid, the lost of 22 million jobs after a year of unprecedented growth, the job market is almost back to prepandemic levels, short about 1 million jobs. hourly earnings are 5 1/2% higher than just a year ago at this time. it is of course being overshadowed by the highest inflation rate in 40 years' time. most americans feeling like the economy is the worst it's been in a decade. and president biden's approval numbers are reflecting that as