russia's kind of premier mercenary corps said on telegram there is a complete route. special forces wiped out. helicopters wiped out. why are they doing this? is it the symbolism of snake island, or is there a strategic objective? take this back from the russians, and there goes their chance of trying to mount any land assault on odesa. >> strategic and symbolic victory for the ukraiukrainians doubt. michael, thank you. thanks to all of you for getting up "way too early early"on this monday morning. "morning joe" starts now. stop speeding with a series of signs to scare drivers. they read simply, "entering new jersey." >> rock and roll hall of fame announced dolly parton would be inducted along with eminem and

carly simon. what is rock and roll? a new direct flight to take 19 hours. spirit airlines announced a new flight from new york to philadelphia that will also take 19 hours. >> all right. >> how beautiful. >> 6:00 on the east coast. "weekend update," punch lines from this weekend's "saturday night live." good morning and welcome to "morning joe." we have a lot to get to on this monday, may 9th. this morning, russia is showing off its military might at its annual victory day parade, even as moscow struggles to get a military victory in ukraine. we'll tell you what vladimir putin had to say about the war. or perhaps, more importantly, what he did not say. we also saw a major humanitarian success over the weekend as all of the civilians inside that

besieged steel plant in mariupol have been evacuated. but the remaining fighters vowed to stay until the end. and first lady jill biden makes an unannounced visit inside ukraine, appearing alongside ukraine's first lady who made her first public appearance since the invasion began. we'll show you those incredible moments. plus, president biden ties to put a stop to the leaks of u.s. intelligence sharing with ukraine. also this morning, who saw this one coming? the 80-1 long shot. >> whoa. one of the biggest upsets in churchill downs history, mika. >> this was a stunner. >> but the ride, i mean, i watched it five, six, seven times after from above. it was extraordinary, the performance by an extraordinary horse. >> and rider and jockey. >> and trainer.

>> the kentucky derby, incredible. we'll talk to two people who saw this coming, the owner and trainer of rich strike will be our guests later this hour. >> that's exciting. >> friday morning, this horse was not in the race. >> was not in the race. i think they bought it for $30,000. >> 30 grand. >> was not in the race. got in the race 30 minutes before deadline. was on the outside post. 10-4. kornacki, his big board blew up. >> he'd have to get a new one. a big investment for msnbc. >> it was a shock. jonathan lemire -- oh, here it is. we have to see rich strike. >> look at this horse. >> rich strike is in the back. look at the pack of horses they have to go through. 80-1 odd. epicenter at the front. >> that's the one they're all talking about. >> epicenter was the favorite of

the race. there was a race down the stretch. look at this. he finds his way to the post and just rides the post now. everybody is clumped up the middle. he's just riding the post, flying. >> look at this. >> goes to the right. isn't that amazing? that move right there, and if you see -- >> look at this horse. >> no -- >> no one saw him coming. >> he just screamed, "rich strike." no one expected this coming. i say this in the most wonderful way, you could tell afterwards, that horse is a little crazy, i mean, in the right ways. in all the ways you want a horse to be crazy when he has to get through 21 other horses. i mean, 80-1 odds. that was crazy and inspiring. almost as inspiring, jonathan lemire, as the red sox bullpen this weekend. let's talk about, though,

vladimir putin. the speech he gave. did he talk about expanding this to nato? >> no, he did not. >> did he talk about, like, expanding it back and going into kyiv, by any chance? >> no, he didn't do either. >> didn't do that either, hmm. did he talk about possible introduction of nuclear -- tactical nuclear weapons onto the battlefield? >> nope. >> did he talk about, oh, i don't know, did he compare russian army's failures to the failures of the boston red sox bullpen night after night after night after day after night? >> i mean, that would have been an appropriate comparison but, no, he left that one out, too. >> did he say anything about rich strike? >> he did not. first of all, rich strike there, let's take one more second. the horse is flying. the speed in that overhead shot

is remarkable. i watched it a dozen times or more, like you, him coming up the rail. the cut back through the pack. like an nfl running back pivoting through the horses. with the blazing speed down the stretch. one of the great races that storied kentucky derby has ever seen. really incredible. as far as putin goes, no. despite recent media hype, this is what u.s. officials expected all along. my colleagues and i wrote this a few weeks ago. though there had been thought putin might use today to announce a full-scale war, he might use today to announce some sort of escalation in different parts of ukraine, that he might use today to declare some sort of victory, he didn't do any of those things. as u.s. officials pointed out, he couldn't. there was no way he could realistically sell any sort of win here. not just in the conflict as a whole, but he didn't even mention the limited territorial success the russians have had. he didn't mention ukraine by

name because he doesn't recognize ukraine as a country. he recognized the donbas. he tried to justify the invasion, but there was no way for him to claim victory or have the ability to escalate. >> we'll get into the news story right now. >> richard haass is here. >> we hear him coughing right now, clearing his throat. we're not going to go to him because we're talking baseball right now, and i don't want to hear a damn thing about the yankees. >> stop. >> they're so terrible, joe. >> horrible. >> really bad. >> by the way, i hear this guy is a genius. you can see it on the field, right? genius, isn't he? they're horrible. >> horrible. >> i'm double-checking here. the standings -- red sox are 10-19. they're already ten games out. we're only -- there's the standings. we're only five or so weeks into

the season. you can't win anything by early may, but you can lose it. it looks like the red sox have already had a lost season. they can't hit, pitch, field, can't run the bases, don't have a bullpen, so on and so on. >> my friend, this is the difference between a guy born in boston and somebody that became a red sox fan in 1975. i understand they could come back, but they're not going to be able to unless james makes some moves. this bullpen has been throwing apart. we'll talk about this some other time. sign xander. >> yes. >> you want to bring the team together. this doesn't make sense. sign him now. you'll be shocked by what that

does. the only other thing i'll say on lucky strike, my dad was from kentucky. >> rich strike. what did i say? putin's strike? >> please. >> so rich strike, my dad is from kentucky. would wake up every morning and go, "first saturday in may, derby day." we'd run downstairs and watch it. i have to say, other than -- this is just me -- other than '73 when we saw little horse called secretariat win, i don't think there's been a more exciting derby. following up on what jonathan was saying,mika, you grew up riding horses far too fast and dangerous. i've seen pictures with your hands in the air over jumps, out of your mind. you saw that move. first of all, he cuts across horses, gets on the post, hugs

the post, but he has one more horse to go around. you saw him just pull the reins, go around at pull gallop. it was awe-inspiring. >> incredible riding. it was incredible riding. we're going to be doing much more on this, speaking to the trainer coming up on "morning joe." let's talk about another kind of losing since you were on this whole losing thing. >> significant, historical. russia, failures on the battlefield in ukraine don't stop moscow from flaunting its military might. the annual victory day parade. the parade commemorates a silver victory over nazi germany. it just wrapped up in moscow's square. the celebration is taking on a new meaning this year, as vladimir putin frames his invasion of ukraine as a means to defeat a new wave of nazism. we'll put that in quotes. "the new york times" described the event as a claim of rightful

dominance over a lost empire. a day to galvanize public support for the war by slandering ukraine as a successor to nazi germany. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy marked victory in europe day yesterday. he also marked victory day today, saying, in part, very soon, there will be two victory days in ukraine. someone won't have any. we won then, and we will win now. nbc news senior international correspondent keir simmons is in moscow this morning. we should note, russia is cracking down on journalists there, limiting what reporters can say under the threat of imprisonment. he filed this report. >> reporter: good morning. it was a defiant speech from president putin here in red square. he railed against the west, accused nato of funneling modern

military equipment into ukraine. he did also say the loss of soldiers is a tragedy for all of us, and he'll do everything to help the families. one military unit marching by here in red square chanted "for donbas." president putin saying one of the units here came straight from the fighting in donbas. every one of those marching will have colleagues in ukraine here. this is victory day, a patriotic day across russia. here in red square, one man telling us that he is certain russia will be victorious in ukraine. a woman saying, just like in 1945 we won, we will win again. back to you. >> thank you so much, keir. richard haass, fascinating. what do you take from what we didn't hear today? also the "times" report last week that putin is holding back

on some of his more deadly, more destructive tools that he could be using right now. i'm wondering whether you may believe that putin is a bit more rational than we first expected or, you know, everybody was saying he was irrational. whether he finds himself a man who thought he'd get away with something that the west finally, after 20 years, decided to stop. >> two things, joe. first, i thought today's speech was dispirited. it was almost as if he mailed it in. it was short, nothing new, flat. once again, he repeated the line, basically, of russia as victim. this was something they had to do. it was almost to dissolve himself of responsibility. this was, in fact, a war of choice. what i took from it on the policy side is, essentially, he is simply hunkering down for a long slog.

this next phase of the war is going to involve the amassing of a large number of troops. there's not going to be a single decisive battle this week or next week. this is the new normal. so he wasn't promising anything new, no new expectations, just essentially getting ready for this long, long battle, this siege, if you will, to come. essentially, the tank was empty there. >> richard, how does he do that? first of all, we hear that they may be running very short on guided munitions. obviously, the economic sanctions, while not crippling them now, certainly puts them in a position they don't want to be in. they obviously have their closest ally, china, who will likely grow more impatient over time. how does he drag this war out into a war of attrition over a year or two with all the economic sanctions and political sanctions attached?

>> he's got to be a little bit disappointed, joe, with china's help or lack of it. the chinese are clearly being careful so they don't get caught up in the web of sanctions. he's still got time on the sanctions that exist. the energy sanctions that are just announced will take a while to kick in. they don't include gas. i think there is this question of how long they can sustain intense military encounters. one possibility is it is not that intense. this simply becomes a long siege. for putin new, the reason he won't sign a peace agreement, he has to avoid anything that punctuates losing. losing would mean a massive military route or agreement he feels compelled to sign that would acknowledge he hasn't won. so my guess is he's almost reversed things, like guerrilla war. he'll try to win by not losing. this just suggests to me a long

siege. >> to richard's point, does this become sort of the endless fighting on the outskirts of ukraine, where it just sort of continues for months and months and months? >> well, it does. but, richard, we're talking about an off-ramp. here we are in may and still trying to figure out -- i mean, you asked the great question a couple weeks ago, what do we want out of this war? we're getting what we want out of this war. we're going to have finland, most likely, in nato. that was unthinkable two months ago. we'll have sweden in nato. germany will have a bigger defense budget than russia. unthinkable two months ago. the russian military imposed as a third-rate army. a generational defeat.

this is a generational defeat for russia. unthinkable a few months ago. so that's what the west -- and, by the way, the west, yes. the west that we've heard is in decline since i was in sixth grade and my teacher was telling me how weak the west was. we were collapsing and in decline. it ends up that the west actually is far from in decline. the west is stronger than ever, regardless of what the haters on the far right and the far left say. western democracy is stronger than ever. now, let's go to putin. what is -- how -- again, this is something we have to figure out. this is the challenge that we have to face in the coming months. how do we help vladimir putin get out of this corner he has placed himself in? because he is not going to walk away from power. and we are not going to engage

in regime change in russia. yet, he has put himself in such a miserable position. everything madeleine albright said would happen before this war has not happened. everything that you said would happen before the war has now happened. so how does this war end in a way that doesn't have vladimir putin in the corner going, "well, i've got nothing to lose. i might as well resort to chemical weapons or nuclear weapons"? >> i don't think he gets there if we have an indecisive stalemate. again, i think he can live with not winning. what he just can't live with is losing. again, he'd lute with a rout, and the danger is it could get him to think about escalating. or he'd lose if you have a formal peace agreement, the equivalent to the battleship missouri in this case that would show, once and for all, how to accept an independent sovereign

ukraine. he wouldn't control certain chunks of real estate. i don't think he can or will do that. if you have a losing hand, you don't want to walk away from the table. that punctuates it. you keep the game going. so my guess is putin now is going to play for time. a low-key, open-ended military struggle. there's no one who can say you lost. he can say, this is still ongoing. we are going to prevail. that's the talking point. this morning, he wasn't promising near-term victories. it was a low key, open-ended arms struggle. i think this could become, again, the phrase, joe, is the frozen conflict. this could become a low-level frozen conflict with flare-ups. this is going to be the new normal there. >> you know, for people that want a historical parallel, korea comes to mind for me after

mcaurther's landing. he thinks about the chinese border. he and truman, in fact, have fights about how far mcarthur goes up. it led to his firing. there was a counteroffensive that reset the entire war. jonathan lemire, i know there are people that want to see the united states go in, no fly zone, shoot down russian jets. you know, possibly drive them all the way into russia. dangerous territory there. i'm wondering how joe biden is feeling right now on may the 9th, early may, about some of those threats. again, listen, i know everybody is excited. i know they're excited that putin's aggression is being pushed back. what great american, what person who loves america and loves

freedom wouldn't be excited about the fact that tyranny is on its heel? but, again, talk about the concerns biden has about the possibility of going too far, pushing too much, and even possibly ukrainians continuing attacks into russia, which would open the door for possible chemical or nuclear attacks against ukraine or nato countries. >> yeah, that escalation is simply not on the table from the white house. there is no suggestion of a no-fly zone or defense into russia. there are watching the strikes across the border there, watching with some concern. to this point, allowing them to continue. there's also hope for the white house over weekend, there's a slow, steady process of cutting down what putin can do. we heard from the g-7 yesterday. they had a meeting. reaffirming their commitment to end the use importation of russian oil.

it'll be a phase out, not immediate, but it'll eventually dry up the fnaning behind putin's war machine. russia's military need chips, equipment. those things are made elsewhere in the world. they don't have them in russia. as the sanctions really kick in and they can't import those, it'll make it that much harder for moscow to continue with its offensive. mika, as a final point on the victory day celebration today, one of the things putin did was lay flowers at the monuments of, quote, hero cities of world war ii. two of them, kyiv and odesa, cities in ukraine he is currently shelling. >> right. those are the ones he wants. >> of course, that's what your brother said, mika, the beginning of this war. if you want to understand historically what putin sees when he looks to ukraine, he sees the old capitals of greater russia, odesa and kyiv. >> yeah. >> those are the cities he

wants. he's not getting kyiv. he may continue trying to get odesa. >> nostalgic fixation. first lady jill biden made an unannounced stop in ukraine yesterday, accompanied by ukraine's first lady who was appearing in public for the first time since russia's invasion began. dr. biden visited a school turned shelter in the war-torn country. her trip was especially symbolic, as it came on mother's day. a holiday filled with grief this year, as so many ukrainians cope with losses from the war. >> i wanted to come on mother's day. i thought it was important to show the ukrainian people that this war has to stop. and this war has been brutal. and that the people of the

united states stand with the people of ukraine. >> feel it. >> you feel it. >> before her visit to ukraine, the first lady also spoke with ukrainian refugees in slovakia and romania. many of them, women and children who left their husbands and fathers fighting at home. >> he's a little shy. >> hello. how are you? hello. nice to see you. >> hello. my name is -- >> how do you explain it to your children? >> it is very difficult, how i explain. it's difficult to explain.

i don't want -- i only said it is war. i cannot explain because i don't know myself. >> thank you. thank you for talking with me. thank you. happy mother's day. >> thank you. >> stay strong. >> ukraine's first lady thanked dr. biden for her, quote, courageous act, to come to the country during such a dangerous time. joining us now, nbc news white house correspondent mike memoli, who is traveling with the first lady. mike, what more can you tell us about this trip? >> reporter: mika, i'm struck by the conversation you've been having about russian president vladimir putin and his attempt to really showcase military power at a time when that's very much in doubt. and what i've seen now over the

course of the last four days as i've been traveling with the first lady in eastern europe, we've literally just arrived a few minutes ago at the airport here. we're about to head home. this was really an exercise in stock power for the first lady. the mission was to showcase the u.s. support for not just the people of ukraine but for our nato allies, especially ukraine's neighbors who have done so much to absorb the humanitarian toll, economic toll of the crisis in ukraine. also, what was absolutely just a significant moment yesterday, what advisers to the first lady described as a mother-to-mother conversation between the u.s. first lady, dr. jill biden, and ukraine's first lady, olena zelenska, who we haven't seen in public since the start of the war. the first lady's trip was not

revealed, and we were not able to report it until after we had left the country. but as you played there, the first ladies, both mothers, having what we were later told was a personal conversation. one in which dr. biden asked olena zelenska, how are you feeling? she talked about the toll, not being able to be with her husband. but getting to hold her children's hands at night. there is no other figure in this administration who has the stature in -- i asked the first lady a few moments ago when she was meeting with slovakia's president, what she told her husband as she was leaving ukraine. she said it was so important to tell him how important it was to continue to help the people of ukraine.

she'll also be focusing a lot on the importance of mental health, visiting classrooms, seeing students who fled their country, talking with mothers who are experiencing this tragedy. that'll be an important focus of hers going forward. >> nbc news white house correspondent mike memoli, thank you very much. i've been following the first lady's trip, joe, and it is incredible, what she has been doing. it is not just symbolically showing up, not only where the refugees have been going to romania, slovakia, but showing up inside ukraine and hugging the mothers and the fatherless children who are in this unbelievable situation, where their families have been torn apart and these children's lives have been in massive upheaval since the war began. if they're in ukraine, they're not in their home. they're somewhere else. they don't know if they're going back. she did a lot of listening.

she didn't, you know, work the cameras. she sat down and listened and held their hands and hugged the mothers. one little girl came up to her, you know, with a little piece of paper shaped in a hand, blue and yellow, and she asked what was written on the paper. the little girl said, "i want to go home to my father." and that's the situation every child is in that she has been meeting with. that's the situation every refugee is in. if you go to the border in poland where millions of refugees have crossed through, all you'll see is women and children. >> yeah. >> right there, you know a family has been torn apart. that's just the beginning of their treacherous, unimaginable journey away from this war. >> you know, there are visits, many diplomatic visits that you're doing, and you just check the boxes. they need to be done. i will tell you, this is -- see,

you can look at these images, look at the pictures, look what came out of these meetings. the word "soft power" was used earlier. extraordinary use of soft power. jill biden, where jill biden is most comfortable, the classroom, and with people. she has an extraordinary gift one-on-one with people, connecting with people. there's a genuineness that comes across. yes, we know her. we've known her for a long time. we've also known her long enough to see her when she's in rooms where she's talking to people. she has the common touch. there are some people when they walk into a room and give others a hug that make a difference. growing up, we always talked about ronald reagan during the "challenger" tragedy, talking to families, hugging people. here's jill biden doing what

jill biden does best. get this, being a compassionate, loving human being. why do i bring this up? i bring it up for two reasons. one, richard haass, it is so important that that face right there is the face of hope coming from america to ukraine. and that's a face that we see back here, of these children on mother's day, separated from their families. it is also important for ukrainians to see america's first lady over there. to know that the president's wife, the first lady, has come into a war zone and is going to be coming back and telling the president that this is a country that is in need of continued support. not that the president is not supporting them now, but just

being with her every day, someone who has been to ukraine, someone who has been to the war zone, someone who knows the personal toll that this war is taking on the people of the country. in a way that even the greatest secretary of defense is never going to learn in his briefings or the greatest secretary of state. >> absolutely so. you know, the focus, naturally, has been on the military help. it's also a reminder, a big thing of what we're doing to help the economy, help the refugees. you know, we'll probably be talking about reparation. one thing about the wars is the war of consequences don't end when the war ends. what you see is an entire generation, in particular of young people, who will literally need years of help in order to recover anything like a normalcy. you have the economic cost of ultimately rebuilding a country, but you'll also have the health and the psychological challenge of rebuilding a country.

you see it in other war zones. you see these families. this is the stuff literally of years, not simply weeks. unfortunately, we can't begin it until the war ends. that's part of the problem. >> jill biden in the classroom, hearing the concerns of these children, mika. who would be better than the first lady? >> nobody. still ahead on "morning joe," president zelenskyy has said it will cost at least $600 billion to rebuild ukraine. but local officials and regular citizens aren't waiting around. the latest on the ukrainian resolve to clean up and rebuild, even as the war with russia rages on. plus, u2's bono and the edge put on a surprise concert in a kyiv subway station. we're going to show you some of that performance.

also ahead, what senate minority leader mitch mcconnell is saying about the possibility of a nationwide abortion ban. if roe v. wade is overturned. former defense secretary mark esper's new comments about the, quote, dangerous ideas he had to prevent during his time in the trump administration. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. watching "" we'll be right back. biden: we have a crisis: the price at the pump. our prices are rising because of putin's actions. we need to double down on our ment to clean energy. building a made-in-america clean energy future will help safeguard our national security. it will help us tackle climate change. this is a challenge of our collective lifetimes. there's no more time to hang back or sit on the fence or argue amongst ourselves.

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made to do anything so you can do anything. whoa. 38 past the hour. the last of the civilians who were sheltering inside that devastated steel plant in mariupol have been evacuated. the u.n. says over 100 evacuees reached the safety of ukrainian-held territory last

night. in a telegram message, ukraine's deputy prime minister said all women, children, and elderly have been rescued from the battered factory. adding, this part of the mariupol humanitarian operation has been completed. however, thousands of ukrainian fighters still remain holed up inside the sprawling complex and are vowing to fight until the end. in a video message, one of the officers of the far-right group, the azov regiment, yesterday said, "surrender for us is unacceptable." the deputy commander of the group added, "we will always fight as long as we are alive." this as russian forces resumed heavy shelling of the steel plant yesterday. in his nightly address, president zelenskyy said diplomatic efforts were under way to try to free the fighters and the wounded, but acknowledged it would be, quote, extremely difficult.

joining us now, national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc clint watts. clint, what can you tell us? >> much like richard said earlier in the show, it's really a tug-or-war at this point. different from the early parts of the conflict. belgrade, you're seeing lots of manpower, bringing them there, sending them along this axis here. what is important to note since last week is what the ukrainians were able to achieve. essentially, in several places, they were able to counterattack and extend this perimeter around the city. by doing that, they're pushing the russian forces out so they can't use indirect fire as precisely as they were before. separately, you're seeing the russians continue to resupply, essentially in this corridor, and bringing it to izyum. izyum is a flank they want to bring here to the south. that speaks to the bigger picture, which is what we're seeing on this multi-front battle. the russians did take some small

ground here. they're trying to bring all of these flanks together to this area known as slovyansk. the last thing of note to kind of consider is we've seen here in mariupol they're still fighting every single day. you're seeing the russians try to clean up some of the area, bring logistics into it, and maybe try to absorb some of the southern front. the russians also want to push some of these forces here up to donetsk. they want to bring donetsk and this izyum axis together and cut this part of donbas off. one thing to note, there has been conflict in donbas since 2014. there has been sustained fighting there for a very long time. this is not unusual for this area. when we're talking about when would the war end or when would putin stop, he hasn't stopped since 2014. this has been going on. that brings me to the last point here. crimea, you know, he took nearly a decade ago.

now they moved to this part of southern ukraine. they're still building up forces there, signaling they might try to go for zaporizhzhia. it is unlikely they can do that, but they're not backing down but also not moving forward. how quickly can the ukrainian military resupply, get the manpower they need, and get in defense. >> where we are now, i want to ask about two things that mika brought up, that her brother brought up to us six weeks ago. actually, we heard him in an interview talking about it, explaining that, for putin, his dream wasn't necessarily reconstituting the old soviet union but greater russia. looking back to the capitals you've talked about, the capitals of kyiv, odesa. kyiv obviously off the table. i am curious, do you see any possibility, with all the activity, let's say he

consolidates mariupol. he has a land bridge to crimea. how does putin, how do the russians get to odesa when he's facing the type of resistance he's facing in kherson? >> no time soon. that's the clear picture. first weeks of the war, we were talking about they made this dash to mykolaiv. they thought they were going to pull this around and go to a territory near moldova. they could have cut off odesa and surrounded it by the sea. that is unlikely. through this entire region right now, ukrainian military is pushing back. even inside this territory, where they set up a kherson government, you're seeing the ukrainians rise up essentially, almost an insurgency in the rear area of this russian-controlled area. there's no way they're going to be able to sustain this over

time. when you look at the big picture, i think russia's challenges, can they even hold this land bridge? if they can, over time, how will they secure it? can they make it part of russia? beyond that, what will they be able to do? anywhere they get close to mykolaiv, stick resistance from the ukraiian military. the ukrainians themselves are resisting in this territory. >> clint watts. >> it seems like a tall order. >> thank you very much. coming up, we're getting back to the historic run at the kentucky derby. the 80-1 long shot, rich strike, came out of nowhere, it appears, to win the first leg of the triple crown. the horse's owner and trainer joins us live. along with nbc's steve kornacki, who will explain just how historic a long shot the horse was. plus, something else we noticed during the derby coverage. a new ad that ford ran just before the race. it was interesting. it included a subtle swipe.

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epicenter is coming up on the outside. epicenter has taken the lead as they arrive into the final furlong. epicenter and zanden. these two stride for stride. simplification on the outside is next. coming down to the wire, epicenter. rich strike is coming up on the inside! oh, my goodness! the longest shot has won the kentucky derby. rich strike has done it in a stunning, unbelievable upset. >> there's the name of your movie, "the longest shot." oh, my gosh. one of the greatest races.

how he moved through the field. saturday's kentucky derby, rich strike 80-1 odds, becoming one of the most unlikely winners in the history of the run for the roses. richard dawson and the trainer, eric reid, joins us now. also, steve kornacki, part of nbc's sports coverage of the derby. rick, i love the derby. i used to watch it with my dad. he's from lexington. i can't wait for the movie. i mean, i've never seen anything like this. since secretariat in '73, this is one of the most extraordinary stories coming out of the derby. have you come to terms with it yet? have you grasped just how monumental this victory was? >> i'm starting to. i relived it for two days.

i bet i got 4 hours of sleep and i'm still not sleepy. hasn't taken anything out of me either. >> well, you've only been an owner for, what, three, four years? >> i think my first was in about 2016. five years, six years. my first purchases were small, 10%, 15% shares in some horses. probably less than two years ago now, met eric and we bought -- obviously, one of the horses we bought was rich strike. here we are today. >> you all talk about, again, an extraordinary rags to riches story. talk about 15 minutes before the deadline, deciding -- getting

the opportunity to have your horse get in the derby. >> yeah, we'd waited all day to see if we were actually going to get in. 9:00 was the cut-off time. 8:45, i was notified by the man assigned to us that there didn't look like there was going to be any scratches and we weren't going to make the race. so i made the text to rick and my dad. actually, rick was standing next to me. i was telling the crew, guys, we came a long way and got close. let's pick our heads up and get ready for new york next saturday. we'll try for the belmont. we had all kind of gotten over the initial satness when i got a call saying, hey, don't do anything to this horse. you're getting in. it was like one minute before the deadline, the stewards called and said, "hey, would you be interested in running in the 12th race of the kentucky derby tomorrow?" >> wow. >> churchill downs. >> oh, my god, that's amazing. eric, you know, for me, watching

this race, what was so exciting is that rich strike won going away. the horse was, like, a rocket on a rail going at the end. i love the call. they're talking about the two fav tritt favorites, and suddenly, he screams the name "rich strike." this horse had so much in him, even at the end. >> yeah, he was full of running the race. he was stopped in the middle of the stretch a bit, passing a horse tiring on the rail. i told my father, my gosh, we might finish third. the guy beside me started going, oh, my god. oh, my god. that's when we thought he might win. as soon as he took the lead, i fell down. i didn't even see him cross the wire. i was so excited, i just dropped. then they mugged me like i scored a touchdown in the end zone. it was the craziest thing that ever happened to me.

oh, my gosh, what an exciting time. >> i was up watching the race about 100 yards from the finish line. so as they came by, we were making a move. like eric just said, i thought, oh, my gosh, we're going to hit the board. we're going to be third. we could be second. and then i had to switch to the big screen because i couldn't really see the finish line. i'm watching him, and he's just flying. i said, oh my, we're going to win the derby. we're going to win the derby. my family and friends were there. obvious jubilation from there, jumping up and down, screaming, yelling, "oh, my gosh!" of course, there was the ushering off to the winner's circle. oh, my gosh. unbelievable. unbelievable time, event. it was beautiful. >> eric reed, i'm curious how the horse is doing this morning. tell us about your jockey.

>> leon, unbelievable. >> incredible riding. what a ride. >> yes, he is a tremendous rider. he is not capable of riding as good or better than the others. he proved it saturday. he gave that horse the most masterful trip they could have rode if they did it 20 races. he did it in his first. made every decision the right decision. never panicked or got shook up. i tell people all the time, every jockey you see in that derby at one time was sonny leon. he got the big horse. >> he was our pick. we weren't going to change. we had no intention of changing

jocks. i made a comment earlier, i'm not going to change my socks, let alone our jock. it's the truth. eric and i had complete confidence in sonny. we love what he does. his courage, his fearlessness matches our horse. they're quite a pair. >> well, we saw even afterwards, rich strike didn't want to trot around in his victory trot like other horses. he got a lot of fight in him. so, eric, i want to talk about -- this has to be so special for you, obviously. tragedy visited you not so long ago after that devastating fire that was caused by a lightning strike at your equine center, the stable in lexington. this has to be especially sweet for you, to come back from that tragedy. >> it is. that was probably as low as

you're ever going to get in this business. we had faith and friends and love that came from all over the country. picked us up. i told my daughter, i said, i'm done. i don't think i can do this anymore. few days later, the decision was made that i wasn't going to give up or go out that way. i was going to fight back if it was possible. you know, i never dreamed anything like this would happen. i was hoping to get back to regular business and save my business. miracles happen. this was another miracle. everything happens for a reason in life. never give up. always trust your dreams. >> never give up. >> wow. >> are we going to see you guys at the preakness? >> that's the plan, as long as richie says everything is good. he makes all decisions on the track. we've never ran him less than five weeks between races, so this will be a first if we can pull this off. he seems to have come out of the race in good shape, good energy,

eating, very healthy. we need to go to the track a few days. rick and i will sit down and make that decision. >> i love it. >> when he said richie, richie is the nickname sonny leon gave our horse. when sonny says that in his latin american accent, it is even more special. richie. so that's become his name around the farm and everywhere else. we refer to him as richie. >> well, you let us know what richie says. rich dawson and trainer eric reed, thank you very much. >> congratulations, guys. amazing. >> great story. >> thanks so much for having us on. >> oh, of course. absolutely. >> there's a thrill. >> all right, steve kornacki, break this down for us. this was not your pick, for sure. >> or anybody's. >> this was not your pick. who picked this horse, anybody?

>> me and 150,000 other people watched the finish of this race at churchill downs, and there was just stunned silence. this was a horse, as you say, who drew in at the last possible minute. if you look at the traditional speed figures that you use to handicap a race, the numbers were so much lower for this horse. looking at the screen, here are the longest odds in history to win the derby. you talked about it, the ride jockey sonny leon gave the horse was brilliant. it wasn't just coming up the rail at the end where there was an opening. it was, as you heard them referring to, there was that horse in his way as he was making the late charge. he navigated right around and didn't skip a beat. that allowed him to win the race. other riders would have been slowed down right there. you have to say, though, the other thing that happened that made this possible, too, is this

derby had an absolutely suicidal pace at the front of it. it is something we've not seen in a long time. the horses went out super fast. the opening quarter mile of this race was 21 3/5 second. it has been ages since we saw a race begin that quickly. when i saw that number, i said to the person next to me -- i bet on a closer, mo donegal, but i said, someone is coming from the back to win this race. when the horses start that fast, they tire out late. it opens up the door for horses to come charging. all credit to sonny leon. he took advantage of that opportunity. he delivered this. now, of course, the question becomes, as you mentioned, the preakness two weeks from now. can he follow it up? i think if there is any modern precedent for what we saw on saturday, it'd be a horse named mind that bird back in 2009 who won this race at odds of 50-1. came in from new mexico with absolutely nothing to recommend

him. was 20 lengths back in the 2019 derby. rode the rail, got the win. shocked everybody at churchill. went to the preakness two weeks later, didn't win, but it was second by a head. nearly pulled off the preakness. got third in the belmont. i look at rich strike. i'm looking at the field that's potentially taking shape for the preakness. the big question mark right now is the epicenter or zanden, the second and third place horses run again. but the field will be different. i wouldn't instantly write-off rich strike's chances in the preakness. >> 1913, 91-1. mike barnicle, by the way, got that one right. [ laughter ] >> steve, you were talking about previous races and the inside rail led to this victory. we'll be talking about the preakness and belmont going forward, but let's spend another minute on this wonderful race. what led to the upset up the pole? >> the word around the track,

the word around churchill all day is in the home stretch where rich strike made his move, the place you didn't want to be, given the conditions, was on the rail. if you look, they're coming out of the far turn here. sonny leon makes the decision to go toward the rail. sonny leon had not ridden any other races at churchill downs on the day. part of it, i think he simply saw an opening there. i think some of the other jockeys watching the races earlier in the day thought the place to be, the move to make coming off the far turn was to get to the middle of the track. that seemed to be the place that seemed to be it earlier in the day. sonny leon who hadn't ridden earlier chooses the rail. you're see it there, the move seamlessly passing the horse. the pace had been so fast, the other horses at the front were a little winded, too.

i'm not taking anything away from leon. he saw an opportunity and seized it masterfully. by the way, i'd just add, the one thing, we talk about the preakness now, who is and isn't going to be in the preakness against rich strike. the very interesting plot line developing here, i mentioned mind that bird. the last true out of nowhere winner of the kentucky derby. mind that bird got second in the preakness. a female horse, rachel alexandra, the last philly to win a big triple crown race. lewis is talking about sending secret oath to the preakness. we could have a story line of a girl going against the boys. the longest shot ever, 80-1. one of the longest ever. i think there is great preakness story lines setting up here. >> steve kornacki, thank you so much. we appreciate it. four minutes past the top of the hour now. we're following a number of developing stories. ukraine denies vladimir putin

the speech he wanted to deliver on this victory day. the russian president remained defiant but made no major announcements during his address commemorating the soviet union's victory over nazi germany. plus, first lady jill biden, her unannounced visit inside ukraine, appearing alongside ukraine's first lady. it is the third high-profile u.s. visit to the war-torn country in as many weeks. we'll have the incredible moments from that visit, which is the first time olena zelenska has been seen the public. also, g -7 leaders planned to phase out or ban russian oil. plus, as the fight over abortion rights heats up, the governor of mississippi won't rule out a ban on contraceptions. >> here we go. mitch mcconnell talking about a national ban. we have the mississippi governor talking about banning

contraception. and anybody that read the draft of what we saw coming out of the supreme court last week has to understand that, really, one of the most frightening parts of that entire draft opinion was when you had alito talking about, hey, you know what, all these other precedents, like griswold, the right to actually have contraception, oh, don't worry about that. it doesn't have to do with abortion, so why in the world would those rights be taken away? please. >> that's next. >> there is no logic to do at all. and if they can take away the right of -- a 50-year constitutional right, they certainly can take away, what, 58-year constitutional right. there's really no legal reasoning why contraception couldn't fall next, if, in fact,

50-year precedent to the right to choice falls. >> we're going to continue that conversation in a moment. first, we want to begin with what happened in russia this morning. russia's failures on the battlefield in ukraine didn't stop moscow from flaunting its military might this morning. it was the annual victory day parade, commemorating the soefr soviet victory over nazi germany. it just wrapped up in moscow's red square. the celebration is taking on a new meaning this year, as vladimir putin frames his invasion of ukraine as a means to defeat a new wave of nazism. "the new york times" described the event as a claim of rightful dominance over a lost empire and a day to galvanize public support for the war by slandering ukraine as a successor to nazi germany. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy joined western europe

yesterday to mark victory in europe day. we as marked victory day today, saying in part, very soon, there will be two victory days in ukraine. and someone won't have any. we won then, and we will win now. joining us now, national executive director of the association of the u.s. navy, retired master sergeant jason beardsley. a decorated combat veteran. staff writer at the "atlantic" anne applebaum joins us. and associate processor of politics at london, brian claus. a columnist for the "washington post" and the host of "the power corrupts" podcast. richard haass and jonathan lemire are still with us, as well. good to have you all this morning. >> anne applebaum, history hangs heavy over the day in russia, where the russians lost 26

million of their people during world war ii. obviously, hangs heavy over ukraine and, obviously, all of europe, whose families endured the horrors of world war ii. i'm curious, what is your reaction to putin's speech and, actually, the fact it was a bit anti anticlimactic? >> i would start by saying it wasn't rush that lost 26, 27 million people. it was a soviet union. many of the people who died in the second world war were ukrainians. one of the oddities or strange things about putin's regime is the way he's tried to capture and take over the memory of world war ii as if it were a russian victory and not a soviet victory, as if there were no other allies, as if nobody was there except russia.

he creates this image of russia fighting enemies all around. that's not what happened in world war ii. it doesn't reflect any reality at all. he does this because he, himself, can't offer the russians any positive ideology or a vision of the future. he keeps turning over and over again to the past. i think that was one of the -- that's one of the stairs that explains the background to his speech today, which was tepid. it was very short. it once again spoke about grievances. it pretended nato had threatened russia, which is not true. said ukraine had threatened russia, which is not true. of course, it disguised the reality of this war, which is that russia attacked ukraine unprovoked and is carrying out atrocities and killing civilians. it was a fairly weak showing. i think some kind of announcement was expected today.

a big display of military was expected today. actually, it was a smaller display than in previous years. there wasn't an air display at all. we don't know why. they said it was a weather, but the weather was fine. it was a strange moment for russia right now. >> so there is belief that we may be moving into a war that's more of a war of attrition. that may last months. may last years perhaps. i find that hard to believe given the pressures that are exerted on russia economically, militarily. also, an area that you specialize in, the fact you have a tyrant, an autocrat, whose lies will be exposed. if the rot is allowed to continue for too long, the lies will be exposed, just like they were exposed in their war in afghanistan. isn't the clock ticking on putin to figure out a way to lie his

way to victory? >> yeah. i think we saw a display of propaganda that is about loyalty and control. it is loyalty tests for the people around him, to parrot these absurd lies that he has manufactured to justify the war in ukraine. it is about this aspect of control, trying to control the minds of the russian people. for a while, that'll work, and i think it is working still. but you're right that, at some point, the propaganda doesn't put food on the table or allow imports into the russian economy. the sanctions will bite much more in the coming months, and there will be a lot of splintering, i think, between people who are still willing to parrot the lies and people who are simply fed up with this completely morally bankrupt regime that is not just an aggressor but also is failing to provide their most basic needs. the prop gran da also, however, points to the idea that, early on in the war, people talked

about the off-ramp for putin, as if he was offered a carrotcarrod stop the war. he can tell his people whatever he wants. if he wanted to claim victory today, he could. he has a state apparatus of lies to his people to do that. however the war ends, he'll claim victory, even if it is a stunning defeat. he does have an off-ramp simply because he can lie to his people quite effectively, unfortunately. >> that's what i'm saying. he is not going to be able to win his way out of the war. he could lie his way out of this war. the longer the war goes on, the more the losses mount up, the more reports come back of dead soldiers in ukraine. the less options he has to lie his way out of this war. sergeant, we were looking at the map a while ago with clint watts. i have to say, you know, this guy wanted to get the old

russian capitals, great capitals of kyiv and odesa. kyiv ain't happening. looking at the map, counteroffensives, odesa is not having. he is having trouble holding the land bridge as it is. the question is, on the battlefield, what does putin have to celebrate today? name one thing that's gone right for vladimir putin in this war that he should be celebrating today. >> the closest you can get is what brian talked about, the propaganda within russia. alexander wrote the hardest part for the folks during the soviet union was carrying the lie. there are people now who are discovering the bodies coming back from russia, the failed sort of attempts to take kyiv. the fact that, you point out again in the south, odesa advance was scotched from the beginning. now, ukraine knocked out some of

their naval vessels. that increases the ukrainians' ability for mobility and decreases the russian's ability to intercept or put naval forces on the ground there. they're not look so good. they're still battling in mariupol to overtake the azov steel plant where the azov battalion is held out there. they still don't even have that consolidated. once they build the land bridge with ccrimea, they have vulnerabilities. railway, causeway, bridges, all can be interdicted with harassment and guerrilla actions in the rear, which will hamper the logistics. war is about logistics. that's been a problem for russia from the outset. they don't have a lot to celebrate here. i think the conscripts on the ground this morning that are watching the parade in moscow have to be a little frustrated. they know what is happening on the ground is different from this farcical play that's happening in moscow s surrounded

by the old generals. this is putin's attempt to dominate the propaganda sphere. i think russians will see through this. carrying the lie every day will be more difficult. >> richard, let me circle back to you about some history we were talking about. we were talking before about korea. talking about mcarthur's landing and his race north to dominate north korea. he kept getting closer to the chinese border. communist chinese warned him. they had the massive counteroffensive that reset the entire war. i will tell you, for the past eight, nine weeks, i've been a bit more optimistic about the ukrainians and their ability to be successful. i think we may get to point, as long as the west continues supplying them with weapons, where we're going to be walking

a tight rope. i wonder, if those ukrainian fighters get closer and closer to russia's border, much in the same way as mcarthur was driving troops to the border in the latter stages of the korean war, are we facing a similar challenge or threat of launching a wider war? >> short answer is yes. you can imagine it either pushing a route that'd threaten to push all russian forces out of the donbas. obviously, an expansion of the war to crimea. in korea, we tried to unite the peninsula by force. chinese forces then came in. some of our most successful wars are limited wars. the gulf war when the united states didn't go to bagbaghdad. we got in trouble in

afghanistan. they surrounded the second army and said, you have to call it a day. that'll set the stage for negotiation. i can see lots of options if the tide of the battle turns to ukraine's favor. there can be interesting conversations between washington and kyiv, about what should be the war aims. how do we translate battlefield diplomater, rather that be a military outcome. one other thing, an interesting conversation about putin's options. you describe the senate reagan mode ed for him. in vietnam, he said, it's not going well. call it a victory and get out. it is a possibility, but it is risky. he has to admit a weakness. i think it'll be less ris can i can -- risky for him to continue

the war, avoid the acknowledge acknowledgement of loss. >> i don't know if that'll be possible. richard, that does make sense. if it is 1985. i don't know if it is possible in 2022. with the economic sanctions, what russian people are doing without, day in and day out. the inability to get weapons onto field. i need to go to anne applebaum because ian brzezinski isn't with me. he'd say, what are you talking about pulling back, joe? i'm not pulling back. but, anne, i think ian probably has pictures of general sherman all over his house. >> i think he needs to come on and defend himself. >> total war. i am curious, have you thought

through -- how have you thought through this? let's talk about the next phase of the war. the russians have been behaving miserably on the battlefield. no reason to believe they can keep up with the weapons supplied by nato and the west. what happens if we get to the point where the ukrainians keep pushing more and more toward the russian border? what should the biden administration be thinking as they think about the next phases of this war? >> first of all, i'd rather not jump the gun. what i'd like to see happen is i'd like ukraine to return its forces to its own border, to secure the borders. ukraine has no intention of occupying russia. they've never said they want to. they're not thinking about that. this war ends when ukraine is ukraine again and its borders are secure. but i think then, at that moment, we can talk about what kinds of security guarantees to

give ukraine. what kind of new institutions we need to prevent russia from launching a new invasion again in a year or two time. it is much too early to talk about stopping or ending the war. >> yeah. of course, anne, i understand that. obviously, people in the administration and on the hill watch this show. i'm just curious, as we look forward -- richard, i'll go back to you. we have to look forward. we have to plan ahead as a country. i'm curious, obviously, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. anne is right. we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. ukrainians are still fighting for their lives and country. what is the best-case scenario? i don't think we're going to see at the end of the war russians driven out of crimea.

i don't know if they'll be driven out of parts of the donbas where they were before the war. i don't see vladimir putin losing land that russian separatists controlled before the war. what is your best-case scenario, richard? >> my best-case scenario, joe, is that the war winds down after this current battle. it becomes a low-level war. not far from what we saw from 2014 through february of this year. sporadic conflict, a flair up. that becomes the new status quo. all sanctions remain in place. they increasingly bite. ultimately, perhaps ukraine becomes fully sovereign, more through sanctions and diplomacy under a post-putin russian leadership. so i would think, you know, we hopefully freeze things. or they get slightly better. you can't do much better while

putin is in power, unless there is a military collapse. we can only get a sovereign ukraine probably under a different russian leader who wants to reintegrate russia with europe and the world. >> mika, breaking news from the "wall street journal," it's a good thing we only bet in horse races. if we were in the stock market, we'd be in trouble. stock futures, by the way, brace yourself for a heavy hit this morning. stock futures fall hard as bond yields edge higher. looks like another rough day on wall street. going to be rough for a while. g-7 leaders are promising to ban or phase out imports of russian oil. that's the biggest development out of yesterday's virtual meeting. the group didn't give a specific timeline, which is always the issue, by said it'd be carried out in a, quote, timely and

orderly fashion and in ways that allow the world to secure alternate supplies. russia is the world's third largest oil producer with half its exports going to europe. the european union said it'd phase out russian oil, but it is still working to finalize the move. the u.s. banned imports of russian oil two months ago. also during yesterday's g-7 meeting, president zelenskyy said his country needs more weapons. and 5 to $7 billion a month in aid. the ukrainian president talked about rebuilding once the fighting ends. he says it'll take more than $600 billion to rebuild everything destroyed by russia. zelenskyy compared the post war eh torts to marshall plan, which was launched as an aid program after world war ii. ukrainians are not waiting to rebuild their country.

thousands are volunteering every day to clean up the damage. the "washington post" reports divots in the roads where shells fell have been paved over. the train to kyiv is running again. water and electricity have been largely restored. families are returning. local officials and citizens are cleaning up and rebuilding their cities, even as the question of when the war will end remains unanswerable. continuous shelling across kharkiv has not stopped volunteers from reconstruction. there are ten u.n. agencies working on a plan to rebuild ukraine's second largest city. jonathan lemire, the aid couldn't come soon enough. the ukrainian resolve seems to outshine anything the west could bring. certainly, the rebuilding and reconstruction of ukraine will

be a monumental task. >> no question about that, mika. right now, americans are focused on getting military aid to ukraine. this next stage is -- there are plans being formed. the european union said they'll help fund this. more breaking news. just now, the head of the eu says they'll consider ukraine's application membership next month, june. >> hello. >> a couple summits are scheduled for g-7 and nato the end of next month. president biden expected to attend. i wouldn't be surprised if this comes to be. brian, we're looking at this moment right nowl pivoting towa the west. putin showing off his nation's diminished status. far less in terms of tank and equipment. no air show, though it is sunny

skies out. putin isn't going anywhere. the war could last a while. even if it takes months or a year to get to, talk about what the new phase of the continent could look like. >> this will have decades long implications because of how diminished russia is proving itself to be. i think there iscreased emphasi in the world. democracies world together more. i hope, by the way, siphoning off oil from western countries doesn't go to a different autocratic regime and tie our fate to that instead. we need to have a lot more energy independence and reliance on ourselves. i think the other point, how will this look for russia and china? china's economy is ten times larger than russia's before the war. is there a club of autocracies

that goes against many of the western democracies? how will putin feel become a junior partner in the relationship in those will define the years to come in geopolitics. >> i had a question for sergeant beardsley. what extent have russians learned military operations here? do you see anything different from what happened the first two months? >> they have shown some successes on the battlefield. understanding how to deploy their force. one thing that makes them anemic in this fight is they haven't got the infantry to supply the armor and the artillery and the air campaign. it is very difficult to sustain urban operations without the infantry. you can bomb a city, seize a city with artillery. until you can hold the ground and take a position and hold it, you don't really have anything. one of the things i think they learned is how to reconsolidate

their forces. you're seeing them struggle along the eastern front there around the cities. popasna and places like this. the range of our artillery pieces are longer than the russians. though they've had learning lessons throughout this, they still are hampered by a lack of logistics, the low infantry numbers we've seen, the actual fight that the ukrainians have been handing them, and new uses of equipment. the ukrainians refurbished drones. they've done computing printing to add fins to old russian grenades. start link capability, which is where elon musk put his satellite technology into the hands of the ukrainians. has given ukrainians communications across the battlefield. russians don't have good communication, which makes it

difficult to do combined arm strategy. they're facing an uphill battle. the conscripts are not the best. leadership pushed to the front. you've seen decapitation of the leadership over the last few weeks. they have learned some lessons, but their inside the fight now. it is difficult to correct for all those problems. they've compounded. that has driven up the cost of what putin is long. the longer he stays, the more pensive and closer ukraine gets to handing russia a defeat. that's how ukraine can ramp this up and accelerate the process to get to the negotiation table. you have to hit the artillery pieces and destroy them on the ground. >> anne applebaum, if you were to write an afterword to your classic "twilight of democracy" and reassessed the situation in 2022 opposed to, say, 2019,

2020, on the state of western democracy, most russia's collapse, that would you -- what would your assessment be on where we are today compared to where we were even two months ago? >> so i would say that many of the idols that were held up by the autocratic and anti-democracy forces in europe and the united states have proven false. putin was not a strong man. hiss army was not more macho and better than our army. you know, these autocratic systems have all kinds of weaknesses and failures. they're corrupt. they don't inspire loyalty. they're divided. the appearance of unity is false. i would say that all of that should teach a lesson to people who follow the far right and follow and believe in some kind of autocracy in europe and

america. i would say, though, that it appears that in -- certainly in the united states and even in some western european countries, we're still seeing the kind of dream persisting. the very disturbing news around the united states with electoral officials being replaced or trying to be -- or attempts to replace elected officials who recognized the 2020 election versus those who don't recognize it. i don't think the story and argument is over, although i think the ukrainians have shown a different path. >> anne applebaum, thank you very much for being on this morning. retired master sergeant beards beardsley and professor, thank you all for being on. "morning joe," the first big test in the fight over abortion

rights this week. what co to expect as senate democrats bring a vote to the floor. one governor sidesteps questions about what would happen in his state if roe v. wade is overturned. also ahead, white house health officials are warning about a possible surge in coronavirus cases this fall and want more funds to be ready for it. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. we'll be right back. trelegy for copd. ♪ birds flyin' high ♪ ♪ you know how i feel ♪ (coughing) ♪ breeze driftin' on by ♪ ♪ you know how i feel ♪ copd may have gotten you here, but you decide what's next. start a new day with trelegy.

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welcome back to "morning joe." 37 past the hour. a beautiful day in washington as we take a live look at capitol

hill this morning. in his book "a sacred oath," former defense secretary mark esper makes a series of accusations about his time in the trump administration. last night on "60 minutes," he said he had to prevent a number of dangerous things from happening. >> because it is important to our country, it is important to the republic, the american people, that they understand what was going on in this very consequential period. the last year of the trump administration, to tell the story about things we prevented, bad, dangerous things, that could have taken the country in a dark direction. >> what kind of terrible things did you prevent? >> at various times, certainly during the last year of the administration, you had folks in the white house wanting to take military action against venezuela, to strike iran. somebody proposed we blockade cuba. these ideas would happen every few weeks, something would come up and we'd have to swat them

down. >> we're going to talk much more about this tomorrow when former defense secretary mark esper is our guest on "morning joe." the senate will vote this week on legislation that would safeguard abortion rights under federal law. the push follows that leaked draft opinion showing the supreme court is poised to overturn roe v. wade. while the vote in congress is almost certain to fail, chuck schumer said yesterday he wants every senator on the record. >> i think they already are. >> it'd be one of the worst decisions that the supreme court has ever issued. it would mean that our children would have less rights than our parents. that is simply un-american. we will vote on wednesday. every american will see how every senator stands. they can't duck itjonathan, exp democrats aren't trying to figure out how to get aligned

with the two or three republicans who are willing to join on to a bill that guarantees some abortion rights? >> well, they won't get to the 60 needed, of course, but -- >> right. >> -- what is raising eyebrows here from some close to the process is why have this vote at all? of course, we know where democratic senators stand on this. it is not going to go anywhere. to some, it reminds what they did with the voting rights. schumer called for a vote that, of course, was december -- destined to fail. they want to point, to reiterate, to underscore, look, these are the republicans who don't support this and make it a campaign issue this fall. that's what we're seeing here. look, there is suspense has to what exactly we will see from the supreme court in june. joe, you and i talked at length last week about -- >> big suspense here. >> yeah. >> big suspense, jonathan. i can't believe i'm about to say

what i'm about to say. >> yeah? >> i was trying to explain this on twitter this weekend. not for long because i don't go on there long. >> not on this. >> i dipped in enough to say, we don't even know where kavanaugh going to end up. because this is part of the process where roberts starts talking to kavanaugh. roberts talks to barrett. i don't know where they are. nobody knows where they are, right? we saw the opinion. but as they lay down their markers, then they go to the point where they start exchanging it and talking and going back and forth. read the -- i mean, just look at the history of the court. people move. language changes. it happens all the time. we don't know exactly where everybody is going to go. you see that court? that court over the past year. amy coney barrett, when she got in, everybody said she was going

to, you know, "handmaid's tale," is it? i've never seen it. sorry. what'd they find over the last year or so? it is actually, at times, the court has been split 3-3-3. liberal, right wing, not conservative but right wing, and institutionalists. you've had brett kavanaugh and amy coney barrett who have been in the institutionalist group with roberts. so roberts may not be able to move them all the way to where he wants to be, but perhaps they start moving back toward the 15-week ban. if you look, and just piece this together, again, what do i know? what do i know? i didn't even know rich strike was going to win the derby. but if you start piecing the evidence together, as you and i

were talking last week, because we talk to people connected with the court, you actually see that the "wall street journal" editorial page drops an editorial before the leak that certainly provides pretty strong evidence that somebody inside the court was yapping to the "wall street journal" editorial page. saying, listen, this is still in play. we probably have our five votes. then, you know, the "wall street journal," again, before the leak, does the, hold firm my conservative brothers and sisters. history is within our grasp. they give that pep speech. a really bizarre pep talk. right? it's followed by the leak. >> yeah. >> to me, just saying me, and close court observers, this looks like the right is actually

getting a little nervous that they don't have five hard core votes that would want to overturn roe the way alito wants to overturn roe. so it is still, jonathan lemire, very much in play. now, you have, my god, louisiana. since this has happened, louisiana is now talking about throwing girls and young women in jail if they have abortions. they're talking about a life beginning at fertilization. i mean, these are characters out of, like, the de vinci code. like, this is getting -- oh, i don't know, "handmaid's tale." this is getting extreme. let me just say, i know everybody didn't go to law school. i did. i wasn't a good student, so don't worry about it. but a quick reading of roe and a quick reading of this opinion, you start to realize that the

very constitutional foundation that roe was built on, that's what griswold was built on. contraceptive rights for you, middle america. contraceptive rights built on the same 14th amendment constitutional framework. inter-racial marriage built on the same 14th amendment constitutional framework. marriage equality built on the same 14th amendment constitutional framework. then alito says, oh, yes, we understand that, but don't worry. trust us. >> oh god. >> those don't involve issues of abortion. so this is a one-off. this is just because i don't like abortion. it just doesn't make sense for abortion. well, that may be alito's argument. but there's no constitutional foundation to that.

there is no legal reasonable behind that. we know the right to have consensual sex and the right to marriage equality is based on the same constitutional framework, but it doesn't involve abortion. just trust us. jonathan, that's where we are. then you have the governor from mississippi going, yeah, contraceptive rights may be next. >> yeah. >> so it's -- this is getting crazy pretty quickly. my only question s going back to schumer, why don't you get a bipartisan vote? democrats don't understand. they don't understand. you can't get 100% of what you want. you can't get 80% of what you want. maybe get 60% of what you want. you can say, we have a bipartisan bill. it's just like the electoral count act which desperately needs to be passed.

democratic leaders, we're not going to do it because we can't get the whole loaf. wake up. take the wins you can get. if you have a bipartisan bill on abortion right, you take it, even if it is 60% of what you want. then you can say, we have a bipartisan group of senators, a majority, a bipartisan majority saying that what the supreme court is thinking about doing is wrong. that is a powerful message to send that i don't think the democrats know how to get to. >> democrats let perfect be the enemy of the good. they're not taking the wins when they need. certainly, joe, to put a pin on your point here, we know that in february, there were five votes to overturn roe. we also know there's a lot of time from february to now. the op-ed seemingly came out of nowhere, except it didn't. there is a pressure campaign within the court right now to keep conservative justices in

line. that is the leading theory at the moment. the leak of the draft opinion seems to be part of that, as well. there is time here, whether for a robert to potential moderate where this is going to be. there's a lot of suspense between now and june. we don't know where it is going. six, seven longcconnell. we'll have his comments coming up. we'll hear from mississippi's governor on rape and incest and contraception becoming a part of this ultimately down the road. tate reeves on both those issues coming up. also, london's big egs ever tourism campaign comes to the u.s. first up, new york city. we'll talk about it when london mayor sadiq khan joins us next. then the action in the premier league. >> the mayor understands how

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51 past the hour, live look at new york city, where london's calling. that's the message from london's mayor, sadiq khan, as he makes his way across the united states promoting tourism in the uk. he is beginning his trip right in new york city, where he will meet with local leaders and announce a new multimillion dollar tourism campaign. and mayor khan joins us now. so, tell us about it. how do we attract folks to the uk? and i guess we need to work on that here in the u.s. as well. we struggle with covid. >> we need to get them here, but

is london and is the uk open for business? >> absolutely. good morning, joe. good morning, mika. let me open and encourage americans to let's do london. what we have got is today in times square, giving you a flavor of some of the things you can experience in london this year. her majesty queen elizabeth ii's, the platinum jubilee. these are the british army's oldest infantry who check the queen. they'll be with me in times square this morning to tease you about some of the things you can expect if you come to london this summer. we have the stars from 6th, the musical, in times square. and the great thing if you come to london this year, you get to celebrate her majesty's platinum jubilee, the stones are back, elton john, adele, ed sheeran

playing in london hyde park. we have historic landmarks. all the best things you've been i doing to do for the last two years, you can now do, safe in relation to covid case numbers are down, vaccinations are up. we have world class enhanced cleaning at all our public -- we encourage all our american friends to do london. >> let's talk about the pandemic in london. one of the truisms we have is whatever happens there first ends up here a few weeks later we're seeing a rise of cases it here in the united states with a few variants. where do things stand now in terms of vaccinations, testing procedures and there are other new variants on the horizon? >> if you speak to the experts, no one can predict what the future will look like. i spoke this morning to my health adviser in london, case numbers are down. those in intensive care is down. vaccination goes up.

we have three vaccines, solidarity of four. we have taken the right precautions. on our public transport, we use world class disinfectant, please cleaning two, three times a day, some wearing face masks and i was out in new york yesterday, it is great to see people back, but we have far more people back in london because it is i think people are confident. we have domestic tourist backs. we have european tourists back. what we missing are the american tourists. >> you know what else we're missing? you know what else we're missing right now? we're missing two points. because we lost two points over the weekend, mr. mayor. it was painful. >> listen, mika, a confession live on "morning joe," joe and i share -- we have been quite passionate, joe was in london a couple of years ago, and we both are in love with liverpool football club. and -- >> exactly.

>> so awkward, okay. >> joe was talking about -- joe will tell you, we were 14 points behind man city, 14 points and we caught up, we caught up, we caught up. and just when we were on the shoulder of the horse in front, we drew against the spurs and man city had a very good victory yesterday. but, joe, don't worry, we're in the champions league final against real madrid, the fa cup final this saturday against chelsea. >> i'll leave you two alone. >> yeah. well, and i will say there have been crazier finishes. we still have three weeks left of -- we could end up winning the premier league, the fa cup, the champions league, we already won the league cup. and things could be much, much worse for us, mr. mayor. we could be -- with that, why don't we bring in nbc sports soccer analyst and co-host of

men in blazers, roger bennett. roger, i'm looking at the top of the table and looking at the bottom of the table and i want you to know, i just want you to know, i'm a big alabama crimson tide fan, which means i'm supposed to hate auburn. i don't hate auburn. they're our brothers and sisters in college football. i do not hate auburn. i don't hate everton. we don't want you to go down. we would rather beat you twice a year. you are on the thoughts and prayers on the other side. what a weekend. for us liverpool fans, heart breaking, rich strike goes down the stretch, and right before crossing the finish line, pulls up, and takes a smoke. and just pulls up a little short. >> it is magnificent, wasn't it? let's look at it, this season's

premier league title race continues to offer all the adrenaline. liverpool and manchester city neck and neck down to the wire, boston red sox own liverpool, chasing an unprecedented quadruple. they needed a win against tottenham hot spur who needed victory to maintain their dream of a fourth place finish. a double must win, which opened really with the shock of the derby, tottenham taking the lead, a goal going into the lion's den. total team play, finished by south korean poet warrior. title on the line, anxiety for the mayor of london. liverpool tenacious, they strike back due to that colombian banshee of destruction. mayor, take it way. how are you feeling? >> let's not forget man city have to play aston villa.

who is the manager of aston villa? steven girouard, a liverpool legend. he famously slipped against chelsea and we didn't win the premier league that year. this is stevie g.'s chance to pay us back and fingers crossed. >> yeah, it is funny you bring up that stevie g. that was my first time at anfield. it was very nice. i got into liverpool. i got into liverpool and i'm walking down the street, i'm always tweeting about liverpool, liverpool fans are very kind, joe, great to have you here, great to have you here, joe. stevie g. slips right in front of us and i turned to my son and i said liverpool fans will be talking about that for 50 years. they said, joe, thanks for coming, please don't -- >> joe, can you please not go to the champions league final in paris and please don't go to

wembley this stay. i would be grateful as would all other football fans. >> i will not. i will not. i will tell you, it is interesting, as relatively new liverpool fan, i started following them in 2006, for me, as an american, roger, i want to win the champions league, really matters a lot, but that fa cup, there is something special about the fa cup. i would love to see liverpool win the fa cup. >> you only have to wait until next saturday. the league is looking more modest. let's look at manchester city, you face new castle in a game, a team owned by abu dhabi, owned by saudi arabia, geopolitics. and they needed to win to maintain their place at the top of the table. they handed out a 5-0 win over their rivals. this one, a pick of all the goals, a moment of thunder from a tiny 5'7" sterling.

three points ahead, manchester city with three games to play, one hand on their fourth title in five years. let's look at chelsea. that man has seen fire, he's seen rain and he's still standing. chelsea shifting to american hands. that's todd bol, $3.1 billion bid, chelsea 2-1 up, and causing our american to feel the age of football. he's, like, look at him in the stands, out with the worry. we'll get them in overtime. who hasn't had that feeling. $3.1 billion, just includes it. don't you hate that feeling? >> well, it's, you know, it is the game. it is the game. and mr. mayor, our hearts aren't

broken yet. i think we can win it all. we can win the premier league, fa cup, champions league and the league cup. we'll give you final word to roger bennett. >> what the mayor is saying, that are thousands of americans going across to watch premier league games. go and do it, america. there is nothing better than football, beers and a pint. you never lose. >> mr. mayor, final word? >> roger is spot on. a lovely city. this will be a special year. we are, in my view, a sporting capital of the world and it was lovely -- the red sox and chelsea could be owned by the dodgers. it shows the beauty of sport, bringing people together. the best place to watch is london, spend your dollars in london. >> okay.

>> i've got to say, roger, as you know, my son, joey scarborough, he cheers for chelsea. i said that's like cheering for microsoft. you don't get it. we love going to london whatever we can. excited to get back there whenever we can. roger, mr. mayor, thank you for being with us. courage. >> courage. it is the top of the hour. just past the top of the hour. the third hour of "morning joe." we're going to begin in ukraine. there is no end to the war in sight as first lady dr. jill biden made a surprise visit to the hard hit country over the weekend. nbc news correspondent erin mclaughlin has the latst from kyiv. first, victory day in russia. keir simmons has the latest from moscow. and russia is cracking down on journalists there, limiting what reporters can say under the

threat of imprisonment. here is his report. >> reporter: this morning, russia's military men and women marching through red square, and in victory parades across russia, the message, unmistakable. for donbas, some soldiers chanted, referring to eastern ukraine where fighting is now focused. addressing them, president putin defiant. you are fighting for your motherland, its future, blaming the west for the conflict and saying the death of each of our soldiers is a grief for all of us. russia's leader invoking the memory of world war ii on t vic nazis but not declaring victory in what he calls his special military operation. this say patriotic day for russia, but it is rarely been held on a day like today. every one of these men and women have colleagues in ukraine. president putin saying just a moment ago some of them have come here straight from the

fighting. after he spoke, intimidating military hardware, tanks, even nuclear capable missiles rolling through red square. but this was a smaller parade than last year, and a planned flyover of fighter jets and bombers canceled at the last moment because of the weather the kremlin said. looking on with his grandson, this man told me -- victory will come, it cannot be otherwise. this woman saying, the victory of 1945 will be repeated in 2022. that is president putin's message too, following the parade, laying a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier, and so far polls suggest the majority of his people appear to support him. >> reporter: after crossing into western ukraine, first lady jill biden greeted her ukrainian counterpart with a bouquet of spring flowers and warm hug.

and a powerful mother's day show of solidarity. >> important to show the ukrainian people that this war has to stop. and this war has been brutal. and that people of the united states stand with the people of ukraine. >> reporter: not seen in person since the war began, alena thanked dr. biden for her courage. we understand what it takes for the u.s. first lady to come here during a war, she said. after a private meeting, first ladies helped dozens of displaced children with a mother's day art project. meanwhile, president zelenskyy released this video, marking the anniversary of the end of world war ii. we are fighting for a new victory, he says, and the road to it is difficult. but we have no doubt we will win. this as the war rages on. a russian air strike hitting a

school doubling as a shelter, 60 feared dead according to ukrainian officials. in the eastern city of bakhmut, more ukrainian tears after russian air strikes hit that city. this woman weeps over the dead bodies of her in-laws. they were kind, they good people, she says. inside a capital subway station, bono and the edge from the ban u2, treated residents to a concert. >> we say thank you. >> reporter: and this startling sculpture, the artwork is called shoot yourself. what message are you sending? putin has two choices, he says, to go to trial or to take the hint. joining us now retired u.s. army chen steph twitty, he served

multiple combat tours in iraq and afghanistan and prior to his retirement, he was deputy commander of the united states european command. he's an msnbc military analyst. also with us, nina khrushcheva, the great granddaughter of soviet premier nikita khrushchev, professor of international affairs at the new school and co-author of the book "in putin's footsteps: searching for the soul of an empire across russia's 11 time zones". >> professor, thank you for being with us. i couldn't help but notice, i'm sure you took note as well, that president putin was far more subdued in the ceremonies than i think most expected. >> everybody, yes. it has been actually big comment that it was very anti-climactic speech, very subdued and putin almost seemed for his standards almost apologetic, almost sort

of explaining away once again why the war was necessary, but not bombastic as he has been displaying in recent months. and in fact, as you know, a lot of air show was canceled in numerous cities and there have been questions as to why they did. are they running out of fuel, don't they have enough airplanes anymore? because in the -- in the soviet union, even in the soviet union bad weather was never, ever an issue for cancellation of air parade and now it has been canceled in about six or seven cities due to bad weather. so the message is that the war is going on, but clearly not happy with the way it is going, we cannot declare victory yet. >> professor, in your latest opinion piece entitled "the origins of putin's totalitarianism ," you write this, for mr. putin strengthening the state's security organs seemed like insurance against upheavals like

those of 1991, which brought the demise of what he called historical russia. and mr. putin takes great pride in the stability of the political system he has built, but maintaining that system is different from building it. mr. putin's approach to governing his creation is embodied by the amendments passed in the sham constitutional referendum of 2020, which not only give him a legal opening to lead for many more years, but also defines the ideal russian citizen, a patriot, loyal to the state above all. now he, putin, dictates policy without entertaining alternative views. these new pillars of the apparatus of state control are impersonal entities with a singular focus, cleansing the political space of anything anti-kremlin, now understood as anti-russian, and punishing

those who fail to show sufficient loyalty. >> you know, professor, it is so fascinating. we have been taught a lesson of the most graphic terms over the past eight, nine weeks, something that you know so much better than all of us, growing up in the soviet union, the blind spots that tyrants always have going into war. the blind spots that autocrats have because as you just say, in this piece, there is no dissent. can you explain how -- how not only russians but chinese leaders, how the old soviet union would look to the united states and look at our dissent as a weakness protest as a weakness and cannot understand how that dissent that sharpens the edges of countries and keeps

us sharp and keeps us improving ourselves instead of an autocracy where there is no self-criticism. >> well, as mikhail gorbachev used to say, your question, there is an answer, you just answered it so beautifully, it is exactly that. they don't -- weak states have weak liberties. one of the reasons we say russia has a strong state or china has a strong state is because they don't trust -- they don't trust the people to make the right decisions and people don't always make the right decision. there is also a competition for the better one. this is something that the soviet union never understood, in fact, the russian empire before the soviet union never understood, they were very brief moments when russia had potential to go that direction into plurality of opinions and then just putin coming out of kgb, he doesn't even think that there is a potential for people's voice to be heard and it can be useful to his own --

to his own governance. i think it stopped and i wrote about this 2020, when he held this sham referendum and now he can be leader for life. he's actually -- he can stay in power. he can continue to be -- to have elections so to speak, to stay in power and feel -- 2036. he won't be alive by then but he may be around. the dictators never know how to get us off the stage. he overstayed his welcome very badly right now. >> general twitty, good morning. looking ahead to may 9th, officials said it would be hard for putin to hold a military parade since all his tanks are blown up back in ukraine and certainly it was born out today, a smaller commemoration than we're used to seeing. but the fighting continues. i want to get your sense of it

as you've been studying it, what you're seeing there, is it a slow escalation in the donbas with mostly long range shooting, what could be next, what sort of timetable do you see the russians could have if they were to make a more aggressive push in the region? >> yeah, thank you for having me this morning. i see a couple of things. number one, we talked about the performance of the russian army, still underperforming. if you look at how they're coming down from kharkiv, down to logistics problems there. they're trying to get to a point they can take the forces out of mariupol and envelop the ukrainians in the donbas. that is not happening and the reason that is not happening is because those brave soldiers there in mariupol are holding the russian military at bay

there. and so as long as they continue to hold, the ukrainians can continue to have agility in fighting the russians. obviously the russians will move to their favorite operation, that is to use artillery and missiles first, they continue to use that as a first rate of fighting and then followed behind trying to push forces into donbas. they have been able too have limited and i say limited success in some of the areas in the donbas. but this is going to continue for a while. and the reason why it is going to continue for a while is the russians are going to continue to push forces in there, and going to continue to grind through this fight. putin doesn't want to see himself as a loser here. as long as the ukrainians can move with agility and continue to fight as well as they are,

they'll be successful here. >> yeah, hey, general, i want to get your insights on what the white house is upset about, from my reporting, what cia director burns is upset about, what a lot of the people in the intel community is upset about, the leaking of the stories the united states had anything to do with intel that may have led to the killing of generals and also the sinking of the flagship of the russian navy. how concerning was that to you, that that information was leaked? >> it is very concerning. on a couple of fronts, joe. number one, it is a national security threat for us whenever we link -- leak information. and also in terms of our sources and methods, we want to be able to protect our source, we want to protect our methods. and in this case, when we have

leaking of information, you put folks in vulnerable positions and this nation in a vulnerable position, so hopefully we will not have that in the future occur. >> nina khrushcheva, getting into putin's head if that's possible, is there any outcome he could accept that would actually stop this war. everything i'm hearing is that this just continues for months and months and months, and perhaps nato gains a win because they create stronger unity, they get more partners, and nato is enstrengthened and the eu is strengthened and ukraine becomes a part of eu, but ukraine, i'm not hearing an outcome where ukraine is taken out of this war. >> we talked about it last time, what could be the outcome of this war for putin.

and i continue to insist that for putin it is a declaration of victory. and then it is his decision what it is a declaration of victory. so they take mariupol completely and then becomes a declaration. i think we talked about the may 9th because the expectation was that by may 9th, something needs to be declared. at this point, they're saying it is a slow process, we are getting what -- and it does seem to me that they're essentially what they want to do now and that doesn't mean they're going to stop, but for now they want to take the whole regions of donetsk and luhansk where they -- the regional territory was, i think they're now in kherson, they're not going to -- they're not planning, they're not planning to give it up, and then they are going to create some sort of scorched earth -- or use no scorched earth policy, create no-man's-land so they can see where the ukrainians are coming. and that could be some sort of a

declaration of victory because donetsk and luhansk and kherson is now no longer part of the ukrainian territory, it is the russian, as they say, authentic territories and we're going to keep them. that could be. but at the same time, you know, it takes two to tango and ukrainians are not giving up. so ukrainians are not giving up, russians are not giving up and that it be continuous cycle for a long time. >> yeah, nina khrushcheva, thank you so much, great granddaughter of nikita khrushchev. one other thing that we had earlier in erin mclaughlin's piece, this was an unplanned visit, and it is truly incredible the way she has been able to bring out a part of this

story that is so important in this war and no person better to bring that out and to symbolically show support than dr. jill biden. and that's the story of the millions of refugees as well as the women and children still inside ukraine, seeking shelter in different parts of the country, they're in shock, they're heart broken, they're separated from their fathers and brothers and they're experiencing unbelievable loss of either life or home, they're home, their towns, their villages, their city. here's more of that from america's first lady, visiting with the ukrainian first lady, being seen in public for the first time since the war began. >> i wanted to come on mother's day, i thought it was important to show the ukrainian people that this war has to stop, and

this war has been brutal. and that people of the united states stand with the people of ukraine. you feel it. oh, he's a little shy. hello, how are you? nice to see you. >> hello. my name is -- >> yulia? >> how do you explain the war to your children? >> very difficult how i explain. >> very sad. >> it is difficult to explain. i don't know. i cannot explain. i cannot explain because i don't know myself. >> thank you. thank you for talking with me.

thank you, julia. happy mother's day. >> thank you. >> stay strong. >> what was so poignant in a lot of these images of america's first lady visiting children and women in a school, dr. jill biden is a teacher and she believes in the importance of giving children some sort of stability, something that happens every day in the form of learning, and whether she is in slovakia or romania or what we're seeing is in ukraine, and actually a country in the middle of a high war is children in school, with their parents visiting and the first lady as you can see doing very well reading the room. understanding that in some ways

just listening is important. in some ways just sitting with them in their pain is an important validation of what is happening in ukraine right now. and the pain that these children, these women and their daughters often just alone sent to saver parts of the country, because their brothers and fathers are still fighting the war, understanding and accepting these children are in pain. and she did a lot of listening and showing support and then when she sat down with the first lady and expressed america's support, that was important on many levels. dr. biden was sending an important message and olena zelenska hasn't been seen in public since the war began. she's been active on instagram, showing many pictures of the children of this war, the orphans of this war, the injured babies, the injured people

inside maternity wards, she's been using social media to spread the word of these families, who are suffering so much. but she hasn't been seen herself yet since the war began, until now. and it took america's first lady to visit to create, i think, a symbolic message to the world that these women and these children should not be forgotten. and in this war, these families have been torn apart and dr. jill biden made sure that she validated the pain that they are feeling, and validated that america stands with ukraine. >> almost 40 years ago ronald reagan began being called the comforter in chief because of his ability with a smile, a hug, a handshake, to bring comfort to those, whether it was after the challenge or accident or other

tragedies to bring just a loving touch -- >> a presence. >> -- just a presence to them. that's what jill biden was on mother's day, 2022. halfway across a world, in a war zone, and on a human level, it was absolutely beautiful. and jonathan lemire, on a strategic level, for the people of ukraine, it certainly was great for them to have america's first lady there, also great to see ukraine's first lady out, walking with america's first lady, but i'm sure most importantly for president zelenskyy to know that jill biden will be going back and talking to her husband, every day, and though he has been a steadfast supporter of the ukrainian cause, she can add such a personal dimension to everything that she got to see

in this surprise visit to those school rooms, and also to those brave men and women in uniform who were -- who were defending freedom in eastern europe right now. >> yeah. there is no question of that. and the first lady, dr. jill biden, president biden's closest adviser and confidante and she will when she lands in washington later today, flying back from slovakia, be able to tell her husband what she saw and further paint a human face to the suffering there. but also the resilience of the ukrainian people. and this is a -- a visit that was worked out of recent days, ukrainians invited the first lady's office, knew there would be security risks, they were able to do it covertly and secretly. truthfully, also continues beyond the personal touch here, the added success of the ukrainian people winning the soft power struggle, winning the public relations struggle in this conflict, just yesterday, a trio of surprise visits to

ukraine, first lady there, as we'll talk about, the canadian prime minister justin trudeau also went to ukraine, u2, bono and the edge there played a show in the metro in kyiv, highlighting ukrainian artists as well, some serving in the military and underscoring the ukrainian people, their spirit, their art, their culture, their students can't be broken by this war. >> well, as you mentioned, canadian prime minister justin trudeau also made a surprise visit to ukraine yesterday. trudeau toured irpin, a suburb of kyiv, which was severely damaged in russia's attempts to overtake the capital city at the start of the war. he also met one on one with ukraine's president before announcing a new round of sanctions against russian oligarchs and pledging additional military and humanitarian aid to ukraine. >> we stand here in this

beautiful capital city, rich in history, culture and life, a city that stands proud and that will stand for years, decades and centuries to come as a continued symbol against tyranny. putin and his accomplices will fail. ukraine will prevail. slava ukraine. >> you know, it is so inspiring obviously to see the courage that the ukrainian people have shown, that the ukrainian president has shown, ukrainian fighters have shown, it is inspiring to see, despite ill liberal voices in america, across the west, trying to dismember nato over the past five years, and so inspiring to see a unified nato. also, so inspiring to see the continued re-emergence of a strong, powerful, vital west. a western democracy is strong,

we are united, there are ill liberals on the right who prefer and have preferred to go the way of vladimir putin, the way of orban, because of whatever bizarre grievances they have against a segment of our population that is 0.003% of our population, or the latest slight or the latest shocking headline that comes out of this shock porn opera that they stay tuned into. make no mistake, despite the lies you heard from the ill liberal right, much like the lies we used to hear from the ill liberal left, the apologists for ill liberal leadership,

well, they lost. history has routed them over the past eight weeks. the west is stronger than it has ever been. don't believe the nonsense you hear day in and day out. it is just not true. >> and ahead in our fourth hour, we're going to speak with retired four star army general barry mccaffrey. also ahead this hour, new york governor kathy hochul tested positive for covid. it comes as her state sees a surge in cases. and the white house warns more infections coming this fall. plus, it has been more than a week since a corrections officer reportedly helped a murder suspect escape from an alabama detention center. we'll bring you the latest on that nationwide manhunt. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. manhunt. you're watching "morning joe." you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.no way!” mo. no wayyyy. no waaayyy! no way!

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tensions in the abortion battle are intensifying

nationwide after that leaked scotus draft opinion. over the weekend, protests popped up around the country, including outside the home of some of the justices themselves. nbc news correspondent blayne alexander has more. >> reporter: in every corner of the country, the fight over abortion rights is heating up. in wisconsin, a molotov cocktail was launched through the window of the headquarters of this anti-abortion rights group. and in washington -- >> the whole world is watching. >> reporter: -- protesters set up outside the homes of supreme court justice john roberts and kavanaugh, while others gathered on the steps of the nation's highest court. >> everyone should have a choice whether they become a mother or not. >> reporter: it has been a week since a leaked draft opinion

suggested the future of roe v. wade is under threat. nearly two-thirds of americans want to keep roe in place. in washington, senate democrats are preparing to vote to advance a measure that would guarantee abortion rights nationwide, but it is expected to fail because democrats do not have the 60 votes required. nearly two dozen states are poised to ban abortion outright, should the landmark decision be overturned by the supreme court. some state capitals are seeing a flurry of action, with lawmakers advancing legislation in preparation. >> the states have been building restriction after restriction for decades and now they turned that into ban after ban. >> reporter: all of it setting the stage for a potential patchwork of laws from state to state, from mississippi governor tate reeves whose state is at the center of the supreme court case. >> at the end of the day, there is no end to the right of abortion in the united states constitution. >> reporter: while in illinois, j.p. pritzker makes this

promise. >> we're going to defend people all across this nation who want to, if they need to get an abortion, they know they can come to illinois and they'll be free. >> that was blayne alexander reporting. coming up, an update on the pandemic. an uptick in cases around the country could be a preview of a massive fall surge. is the nation prepared? that's next on "morning joe." nd nd that's next on "morning joe. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders —they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade -dad, what's with your toenail? -oh, that...? i'm not sure... -it's a nail fungus infection. -...that's gross! -it's nothing, really... -it's contagious. you can even spread it to other people.

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switch today. welcome back. more people are coming down with covid across new york, including the state's governor. it is part of an uptick in cases nationwide. here's nbc news national correspondent gabe gutierrez. >> reporter: this morning, a dire warning of a dangerous fall

surge ahead, a senior white house official saying the u.s. could see up to 100 million new covid infections. that's about a third of the population. >> we're going to have a lot of waning immunity. this virus continues to evolve and we may see a pretty sizable wave of infections, hospitalizations and deaths this fall and winter. whether that happens or not is largely up to us as a country. >> reporter: as a new highly contagious subvariant spreads, the biden administration is renewing its call for another $22.5 billion in covid relief money. the funding would help provide therapeutics, testing, vaccines and boosters nationwide. this comes days after the u.s. topped 1 million coronavirus deaths according to an nbc news count. in almost every state, new covid cases are on the rise, up nearly 56% over the past two weeks. >> we are seeing new variants, and, remember, we have about 50% of the country that did not get infected in the omicron wave, that is now freely out, we don't

have masks, also making them targets for infection. >> reporter: the northeast being hit hard. the cdc raising several regions to high alert in states including massachusetts, connecticut, and new york, where new york city may be grappling with a fifth wave. >> just in time for preparation and using the many tools that we have, masks, vaccines, frequent testing and treatment. >> reporter: and as people gather for celebrations like graduations and mother's day -- >> this say treat without having the fear of covid hanging over you. >> reporter: they're urging everyone to be vigilant, especially those at high risk. >> be careful, have outdoor celebrations, consider using a rapid test. >> that was nbc's gabe gutierrez reporting. coming up, you think an escaped convict who stands 6'9" might bes easy to spot, bu the accused killer has been on the run for days and so far

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welcome back. it is a case we have been following for days, an accused killer on the run, apparently with a law enforcement official who helped him escape from jail. nbc news correspondent sam brock reports. >> reporter: from this camera inside a quality inn, newly released video shows vicky white check out of a hotel before going to a job as a corrections officer as usual. but just hours later, according to authorities, she helped spring a violent felon, casey white, and the pair has been confounding law enforcement ever since. >> i really, you know, had hoped that we would have had them in three days max. >> reporter: we learned in the week leading up to the escape, vicky white went to a kohl's shopping center and purchased men's clothing and visited an

adult toy store. >> just confirmed this was well planned and thought out. obviously, if you bought some clothes for him, you know, the adult store thing, i don't know what that was about. >> reporter: that timeline, setting the stage for an unlikely escape, the 17-year veteran of the sheriff's department, assisting a man convicted of violent crimes and accused of capital murder. their getaway car, an orange ford edge, spray painted in just one area. found about an hour south of nashville, startling neighbors. >> heard a noisy truck, sitting idle for a long time. >> reporter: the suv moved to a towing lot, for a week. valuable time lost as authorities try to track down the pair. white's former attorney dell bryant, appointed to rep him in several appeals, warned that the felon is likely off his medication, making him extremely dangerous. >> casey suffers from mental illness. when he is not on his

medications, he has a tendency to self-medicate by using methamphetamine. >> reporter: the rewards leading to their arrests have been upped to $15,000 for casey and $10,000 for vicky as the u.s. marshals hope the new photos help them to break the case. >> that was nbc news correspondent sam brock reporting. coming up, we're going to break down the historic finish in the kentucky derby. mike tirico of nbc sports joins the conversation. plus, a preview of the week ahead on wall street with cnbc's andrew ross sorkin. also ahead, it is a split screen picture for russia's military. vladimir putin shows off his shiny equipment, in a moscow parade, while in ukraine those same tanks and trucks are being absolutely battered by ukrainian forces. can he continue to mislead the russian public? >> and will they continue to believe it? >> we'll be right back. will tho believe it >> we'll be right back

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and it's messier and epicenter on the outside. epicenter has taken the lead. as they arrive in the final furlong, and epicenter and zandon, side for side and down the outside is next and coming down to the wire, epicenter and rich strike is coming up on the inside. oh, my good dayness, the long shot has won the kentucky derby. rich strike has done it. in a stunning unbelievable upset. >> you could watch it a hundred times and it is still as exciting as the moment it happened. the final stretch from saturday's kentucky derby where rich strike defined 80 to 1 odds to become one of the most unlikely winners in the history

of the race. over 147,000 people were on hand to see this upset. and this year's derby also set a new bedding record with wagering on the race itself totaling $179 million. up 15% from last year and up 8% from the previous 2019 record of $166 million. the rare few who bet on rich strike were treated to the second largest payout in kentucky derby history. earlier this morning, we spoke to the derby winner's owner and also his trainer who nearly lost his entire business to a devastating barn fire a few years ago. >> i told my daughter, i said i'm done. i don't think i can do this any more. and a few days later, the decision was made that i wasn't going to give up or go out that

way. i was going to fight back if it's possible. i never dreamed anything like this would happen. i was just hoping to get back to regular business and save my business. so miracles happen. this is another miracle. and everything happens for a reason in life. never give up. and always trust your dreams. >> joining us now, host and play-by-play commentator, mike tirico who led the derby coverage. when you were watching it, i feel like there was a moment in which the two horses that were sort of the focus of the announcers where you could see it beginning to happen and you knew that the riders had no idea that rich strike was coming in on the inside and was taking over the race. do you remember that moment? did you feel that? >> absolutely, mika. because larry culman who plays races, larry is the best in the country and he was focused with all of us on those two horses,

epicenter and zandon and so i was because i jump in right after larry is done. but we never saw where rich strike was coming from. it was almost like a great taxi driver in new york weaving through traffic. when you watch in a ride over and over, that is the cabby i'm going to give $20 to for getting me through "times" square at 5:00. and the whole story top to bottom is amazing the horse was not in the field as of 9:00 a.m. on friday morning. one horse scratches and he gets it and the rest is history. >> he wasn't even in the race. >> and unbelievable. and what an uber rating he had to be given. so, mike, i have watched, because my dad's from kentucky. >> and he loved the derby. >> and my dad loved the derby.

it was so special to him and preakness. but i saw a lot of races growing up, horse races, and i hate to -- this sounds a little too simple, i just can't think of any other race other than like '73 belmont that stands out in my mind like this. this is one of the great performances. there is a great tweet after the race that said buster douglas just won the kentucky derby. this is -- you wouldn't believe it if it were in a movie, would? you. >> no, you wouldn't. you referenced buster dog loss who knocked out mike tyson when he was beating everybody in a minute or two minutes. you just didn't expect this to happen. and again you don't because you look at the pedigree and look at past performances. this horse has run 7 times and won once. this horse was on a five-race losing streak. and the reason the horse got in

at last minute. they get points for all of the races leading up to the kentucky derby. the top 20 qualifiers get in and then the next couple are there as alternates in case one of the other horses scratch. so this horse showed very little form on the way to the kentucky derby. so everybody looks at every possible angle with all of the horses and nobody saw this coming. that is why it is the second biggest upset in terms of the odds in the history. but we're talking 148 kentucky derbies. so this is one in a century type of moment that happened on saturday. >> incredible. >> you have to take us behind the curtain. give us a peek behind the curtain. because i guess because i do this and also because i'm such a big fan of yours and a big fan of the coverage. i was wondering in my mind the producer in me was wondering, how are they getting this

information? you've got an owner that didn't really start in this business until two or three years ago. you've got a trainer that, again, is not seen as somebody that would come to the top of everybody's head. and then you have a jockey, i think it may have been you that said, oh, yeah, he's a top jockey in youngstown, ohio. and how were getting the information, in that split-second when we were screaming in front of the tv sets? i'm just curious how you guys managed that moment, that moment in history in horse racing. >> so i'll give you four things real quick. our producer lindsay and she leads a group that has us all prepared. we have researchers who are the best of the best, the nbc sports research team is amazing. they gave us a whole bunch of