off another busy hour. it's 11:00 a.m. eastern and 8:00 a.m. pacific. we start with this today. it's an annual military parade, and it's meant to send a message to the world about russia's military power, casting a large shadow over it all, ukraine, and russia's actual performance on the battlefield. vladimir putin has been unable to declare victory and he did not today. meanwhile in eastern europe, a different display, one of humanity. first lady jill biden met with the ukrainian counterpart in a mother's day show of solidarity. this is the first thing she told president biden after the visit.

>> i said just how much i saw the need to put forth the people of ukraine, and you know the horrors and brutality the people i met have experienced. >> in moments, the latest from moscow, ukraine and a deeper look at the battlefield. plus, there's more we are following this morning, including 100 million, that's how many they say could be infected. and then gas prices on the rise, and how high will these prices get? and a new childcare plan democrats are working on, with one key senator's vote in mind. we start with russia marking

victory day in moscow. and keir simmons is there for us. we should note russia is cracking down on journalists limiting what reporters can say under the threat of imprisonment. keir, what are you seeing? >> reporter: what we are seeing is a mix of sentiments about the past and the kind of messaging putin has talked about today, talking about the victory over the nazis in the second world war and connecting that in what he says will be a victory in ukraine. we have seen poignant moments where there are people walking on the streets and holding pictures of loved ones, ancestors from the first and second world wars, and putin met with the commander of a father, and he said we no longer lose

our loved ones and friends and then going on to say victory will still with ours, and that's the sentiment of the people taking part of the events here, according to the polls many support vladimir putin, and many of the thousands marching through and the tanks rolling through, and the missiles rolling through it, and president putin saying to the gathered people there, and he said fighting for our future, and blaming the west for the conflict in ukraine, and suggesting nato supplied the west with artillery, and he did not make any announcements today as been suggested he might. >> thank you very much. let's bring in the rest of our

team, kelly cobiella on the ground in ukraine, and national director of the navy, and forwarder biden administration team member and msnbc political analysts. what is the reality on the ground there today? >> what is interesting, josé, we expected a bigger announcement from vladimir putin today. he didn't make one. he essentially made a boilerplate statement and didn't signal anything about mobilizations. that was one of the fears the west had is that we were going to hear about massive mobilizations committing more manpower to the fight. what you see on the ground is the fight is here and around donbas, and particularly up in

the north part of the donbas region. we saw kharkiv advance to the east and take some of the ground back and the russians are reinforcing, resupplying their forces here, and what interesting, here the ukrainians pushed towards the east threatening some spots in the rear area of the russian advance. this is the access they need to get to. it essentially drivers down izyum, and if they can push the russians out of kharkiv, the indirect fires in the center of town won't be as precise. when you look further to the south, you see this area which will be the central battle point probably for the next days, weeks, and maybe throughout the

summer. the russians want to advance here, here and here towards this key town, and they want to envelop those forces and keep the ukrainian army boxed in, and you are seeing the ukrainians send a lot of manpower and material and a lot of the new weapon systems coming in from the u.s., they are going to push to this area here in donbas. when people ask when this will end, i remind them fighting has been going on in donbas since 2014. >> russia is struggling on the battlefield but still inflicting horrors on the ukrainian people. 60 were feared dead after a russian air strike on a school in eastern ukraine. what do you know? >> reporter: yeah, that's right. as a matter of fact, today the governor of that region said

they had to put a pause on a recovery mission at that school because they were taking incoming fire from the russian forces. they said that mission would continuance they could make the area safe again. what happened to the ukrainians was practically the entire village in the area were sheltering in the school, in the basement, and the estimates are about 90 people, although it's difficult to confirm these numbers, and only third were able to be rescued. you know, we are talking about dozens potentially dead, among them women and children who are said to be sheltering in the school when the missile hit. a fire erupted, and you see the horrifying pictures. it took four hours for firefighters to put that out, and as you mentioned, josé, we talked a lot about different parts of the country, including mariupol, we focused a lot in that city, and the fire in that

area has been raging, and their homes are being hit, and ukrainian soldiers are being killed and injured, and we actually spoke to one of those soldiers fighting closer to donetsk. he said he was hit, he and his fellow soldiers came under fire when they were trying to rescue families from a residential area. they were in the homes sheltering, and their homes were hit and the soldiers went in and tried to get them out and they then came under fire. he's 40 years old. he's a husband and has two kids and he was a telecommunications worker in kyiv before the war started and now he's in a hospital bed recovering from a number of shrapnel wounds, and i asked if he was going back on the battleground, and he said, of course, we are going to continue to fight.

>> putin said going into ukraine was the right decision today. is that a message that is backed up with anything? >> no, in fact, i think he's saying that as a way to save face in front of his generals, and there was that theater, that parade today. in reality he overestimated his forces and they were lining up through the ranks to surmise they would be able to do this invasion within three days. everything they have done was shown the russian military was not up to the logistics, the senior leadership, and everything that put them in the position they are in now. for him to say that, that's just pure propaganda. >> and he placed more on the west during his victory day speech. i think the u.s. and leaders in europe will listen to putin's message. will there be any reaction to that? >> i don't think so josé.

as clint said earlier, it was slightly more muted than people expected. he did not declare victory, which is hard to do when you are losing. there was not that kind of marshall military talk we hear from him sometimes, and putin has been blaming the west for 20 years and that would not be surprising to european leaders. and putin talking about ukraine and the denazification, and they say putin is the one here mere -- mirroring the nazis. >> i love it. you are such a keen student of history. i want to hear these thoughts on the images of putin shaking hands with generals that have

more medals on their chest than heavyweight lifters do. putin needs to have some internal support to continue going forwards. putin needs to have some military leaders that support him or else, you know, he'll wake up to khau chess kau one day. >> he needs internal support, 100%. and by the way, his audience for the may 9th spectacle, and it's a combination of july 4th and thanksgiving rolled into one, and he wants to shore up support in russia. support in russia where they lost 27 people over naziism, and he's trying to hitch his current war effort with the great

patriotic war, which is what the russians call it, and it may not persuade people in the west but people within russia. >> and zelenskyy told leaders sunday in a message that ukraine will need 5 to $7 billion a month in support as long as the war continues, and does that scratch the surface of how much more it will be? >> we do not have an endless supply of money, and the white house and americans have been generous, and there's a ton of lethal munitions that have gone in the fight. after the war, this is not over and they have to rebuild. let's focus on a moment of what america needs. we have rivals in china facing the straits of taiwan, and during that prephase, that was

the right time to put weapons in the hands of zelenskyy's forces, and not six weeks after the campaign, and so let's get in front of this one, and we watch the navy closely and we out to be putting 10 to $16 billion in our own security investment so we don't have to get behind these invasions but we can get in front of them. the weapons make a difference, and the lessens is get in front and not behind these invasions. >> meanwhile, a biden official said there could be more. >> to pick up where jason left off, and maybe the lesson of sanctions is get in early and

not a drip, drip, drip. and the biggest sanctions is the eu gutting themselves off from gas, and we are tightening the screws and there were new sanctions against belarusians. and sanctions have a long-term affect, not an immediate one. >> and g7 leaders said on sunday they plan to phase out or ban imports of russian oil, and we're not talking about natural gas, which, by the way, they get most of from russia, and they said they will hit hard at the main artery of -- >> we're behind again in the case of natural gas and oil and things like that. europe is so reliant on russian for this. they were always going to be in a bad position. which is the critical reason why these weapons, those should have

been in the hands of the ukrainians to convince putin he would not have an easy time. now that he's stuck in it we are having to fuel behind these sanctions and they will have an affect, and zelenskyy will have to convert the weapons the u.s. put in their hands, use them so the russian pieces are broken, and they are short of infantry. that's the advantage zelenskyy needs to work within, and break that battlefield seam open and use the howitzers the u.s. gave them and work on that front. >> thank you so much for being with us this morning. i very much appreciate it. right now covid-19 cases are up in 46 states across the

state. look at that. look at the map. if you are just listening at home, there's a lot of red and it seems like there's getting more. the white house is already warning of a fall and winter surge. how should we be preparing? plus, it's likely round two of senator manchin versus almost every other senator in his party. the new strategy they are taking to try and pass biden's agenda, and why this time could be different than the last time. e e e e different than the last time i felt all people saw were my uncontrolled movements. some mental health meds can cause tardive dyskinesia, or td, and it's unlikely to improve without treatment. ingrezza is a prescription medicine to treat adults with td movements in the face and body. it's the only treatment for td that's one pill, once-daily, with or without food. ingrezza 80 mg is proven

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this morning at least 46 states are seeing an increase in new covid cases over the last two weeks. the 7-day average for new infections stands at more than 69,000, and now the white house is sounding the alarm about what could be on the way. nbc's gabe gutierrez joins us,

and also joining us is the founder and ceo of health equity. tell us more about the white house warning? >> here in new york the governor announced she has tested positive as cases explode throughout the state. there's no new mask mandate in place, but health officials are now strongly recommending them indoors once again. >> this morning a dire warning of a dangerous fall surge ahead. a senior white house official saying the u.s. could see up to 100 million new covid infections, and that's about one-third of the population. >> this virus continues to evolve and we may see a pretty sizeable we've of infections, hospitalizations and deaths this fall and winter. whether that happens or not is largely up to us as a country. >> as a new highly contagious sub variant spreads, the biden administration is renewing its

call for $22.5 billion in covid relief money. this comes days after the u.s. topped 1 million coronavirus deaths according to an nbc news count. in almost every state new covid cases are on the rise, up nearly 56% over the past two weeks. >> we are seeing new variants. and we have 56% of the country that did not get infected in the omicron wave that are now and are targets. >> this is the time for preparation, and using the many tools that we have, masks, vaccines, frequent testing and treatment. >> at people gather for

celebrations like mother's day, health experts urge americans to stay vigilant, especially those at high risk. >> you may want to be careful, and have outdoor celebrations if possible and consider using a rapid test. >> it's important to note that infection numbers are likely being under reported because of the increased use of at-home testing. >> thank you. dr. blackstock, as gabe was just warning, are we prepared to handle such a surge? >> that's such an important question and right now we are not because we don't have the congressional funding we need for adequate testing for vaccines and boosters, and for therapeutics. those layers of mitigation are incredibly important. we also lifted those general

population public health measurements, and i would say those were lifted prematurely, and we are seeing another surge and an uptick in hospitalizations and in deaths as well, so we are going to need localities in place to rethink putting them in place, and especially our most vulnerable citizens. >> doctor, explain the seeming contradiction, so cases have increased by 50% over the last two weeks, but deaths have decreased by 12%. how do you explain that? >> what we are seeing and what we have always known is death is a lagging indicator. it takes six to eight weeks to show the impact of a surge on deaths and it's too early to say

what will happen with the most recent surge. we are seeing an increase in the majority of states in terms of infections and an increase in hospitalizations. sooner or later we will see the increases in deaths. we are seeing people who have not been infected, and they are becoming infected, and people like me, i was infected last week and i have been incredibly cautious, and we need universal health measures to keep everybody in safe. >> was that your first infection? how are you? >> thank you for having, and it was, and it took me out of commission for at least a week. i was rapid testing every day. i have a father who is 80 years old, and i needed to make sure if i was going to be around him that i was not contagious. again, we are seeing people like myself who have, you know, really been following all of those protected measures that we

know so well, and because we have a more contagious variant and because mask policies have been lifted we are seeing people who were not infected become infected now. >> i was on a plane a couple times just last week, and i would say maybe 80% of the people on the plane did not have masks, including the flight aattendants, and lot of people in the airport not doing that, and the scientists are hoping to study people who have avoided infection, and so you would not fall into that group, and could this prevent others from being infected, and what could you learn from those who have not been infected yet? >> well, a study needs to be done, and i wonder if there are people who are lucky or people like me who are practicing the strict public health measures to protect themselves, and i don't

know if they have a pregenetic disposition or using multiple layers to keep themselves safe, and i think that would be interested to see if there are people that have some sort of biological advantage over others to prevent becoming infects, and i think we know the measures that work so well should be continued. >> doctor, thank you so much for being with us, and i am glad you are doing well. your dad is okay? >> he's great. he's perfect. thank you so much. this morning a major concern for parents of newborns, infants and toddlers is about to get worse. retailers are limiting how much baby formula people can buy. the shortages are blamed on the

supply chains. that's a tough one. sounding the alarm on abortion access, democrats plan this week to get every senator on record on where they stand on abortion rights. we're looking into that. rights. rights. we're looking into that.a secon. romance is in the air. like these two. he's realizing he's in love. and that his dating app just went up. must be fate. and phil. he forgot a gift, so he's sending the happy couple some money. digital tools so impressive, you just can't stop banking. what would you like the power to do?

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if you're 45 or older, get started at missiontoscreen.com the abortion rights battle is heating up two days from a critical but likely doomed vote in the senate to codify roe v. wade into law. new hampshire senator is out with what could be the first mid-term ad on abortion after last week's bombshell leaked the supreme court decision discussion. the add hammers her opponents for the abortion ban, and they see abortion as a potent mid-term issue. and julie joins us. speaker pelosi just sent out a new letter? >> yeah, i thought that ad you must mentioned was the biggest sign this upcoming vote is doomed and they are looking to

the next thing which is the mid-term elections, and pelosi said make no mistake once republicans have dispensed with press department in privacy in overturning roe, and she went on to say it's urgent they share in the danger with americans, and they don't have the votes to pass it and they don't have the votes to change the filibuster even if they wanted to pass it. they will be focused on elections. all eyes on that, while republicans in states are already focused on overturning -- making abortions harder to access and criminalizing them, this might be a national conversation, and it's one democrats wants to publicize. and republicans are focused on inflation and high gas prices, and privately we have been talking to them and they have been discussing since the first day after the leak dropped from the supreme court, what they are

going to do if they take over the senate and house and we will see how that shakes out in the next couple of weeks. >> thank you for being with us. meanwhile, arson investigators are trying to figure out who threw a molotov cocktail at an anti-abortion headquarters. nobody was injured. this morning if you need to fill up your gas tank, it will set you back a lot of money, $15 more than just last year this time. that's the national average for a 12 gallon tank. how high could your gas tank get this summer? >> i think $5 is improbable but not impossible. >> right now we are watching capitol hill for a plan that

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we believe there's an innovator in all of us. that's why we build technology that helps everyone come to the table and do more incredible things. ♪ this morning, millions of americans are facing higher gas prices at the pump. according to aaa, a national average for a gallon of gas regular is $4.33. morgan is following this. >> experts say we could be approaching the national average we set back in march, and right now all signs point ahead to one expensive summer travel season. from the highways to the sky

ways, the costs of getting where you want to go is on the rise, weeks ahead of memorial day. >> i don't look at any gallons anymore or the dollar amount because it's expensive everywhere. >> nationwide, the national average price of regular is $4.33, up 14 cents the last week alone. 22 states and washington, d.c. have had even bigger jumps, and in michigan the price soaring 27 cents in a single week. >> the prices are high and we have not cut down on driving at all and i have to get to work and there's a couple things that i have to do with the kids to keep them busy. >> that's not the case with most people. 66% said they will make significant changes to driving habits if prices remain through

4.12 and 4.55. >> it's not just regular gas. jet fuel and diesel are soaring, too. nationwide a gallon of diesel is $5.54. a harsh reality for raffaele, whose company has 22 trucks. >> i have used to spend 2,000, and now it's $5,000. >> everything in the economy that you buy at the store arrives via semi truck, and keep in mind the surge in diesel prices -- >> with the cost of diesel only expected to rise, experts say they anticipate this being rough for families traveling this summer in rvs, and they are keeping an eye on two factors that could play a role in that price going forward. russia's war in ukraine, and hurricane season, which hard to

believe, is already just around the corner. we'll send it back to you. >> thank you so much. meanwhile, senate democrats hope to tackle a major issue facing they will make when returning to the offices. childcare. will it be enough to win over senator joe manchin. we are joined from capitol hill for that. you have new reporting that gets into manchin's thinking on this? >> that's right, and i should say senator manchin has told me and others that he is interested in passing major legislation with only democratic votes, and he specified what he is willing to tackle in such a bill, and that's prescription drug savings and a major investment in climate change, mitigation as

well as american energy and he wants to use half the savings to deficit reduction. very notably, childcare spending is not part of his ask which makes it likely at this point but he will come around to support a major childcare bill, and many tell me he's unlikely to write a bill himself. with that information, i took it to a democratic aide who is familiar with the childcare proposal. why do they expect him to come around when he has been abundantly clear that it should not be in the so-called reconciliation legislation? because passing it has to be done through reconciliation, and

republicans are not going to play ball and the issue will fade away. still, the rereality is they need the all the democrats to pass the bill. >> speaking about senator manchin, you have new reporting on how democrats are making senator manchin part of their campaign conversations? >> that's right. he's become a bit of a villain on the democratic primary trail. there are several candidates trying to tie their more moderate democrat candidate. in oregon there's a competitive

primary with a democrat facing jamie skinner, and she calls him the joe manchin of the house for resisting joe biden's agenda, and john fedderman, the democratic frontrunner in that race has been going around pennsylvania saying i am not a joe manchin democrat. if that's what you want you should not vote at me. and he looked over at lamb in a recent debate saying this man is your mentor, he endorsed you. they are signaling not only to progressive voters and trying to reach moderate democrats that support manchin's agenda, and it's a bit of a situation where manchin is a man on an island all by himself, and it's attacking him through the prism and frame and have a leg up.

>> thank you so much. the white house has a new program. it says it will cut the costs for nearly 40% of household internet bills. that announcement coming up in a couple hours. tell us about this plan. >> the plan, josé, is part of the bipartisan infrastructure law and it's called the affordable connectivity program. it's designed to cut internet costs for millions of low-income americans. the way it works is under the affordable connectively program, and households that qualify for this can get up to $30 a month to put towards internet access, and that now on top of that what the administration is announce something 20 internet providers agreed to cut internet costs further, so having plans that cost no more than $30 a month. what that means is households that qualify under this program

can essentially get internet for no costs, with that $30 government subsidy, and plus these internet companies committing to provide plans that costs no more than $30 a month. this is something the white house says would affect 48 million americans if they sign up for this, and they are also announcing there will be a website for individuals to sign up for, and not everybody has internet, and there are going to be other ways they can learn about this and how they qualify and how they can sign up for this, josé. >> and later this afternoon president biden is set to sign the ukraine democracy defense lease act? >> yeah, that's right, and this will allow for -- to provide more military equipment to ukraine. it's something that has been sitting on the president's desk for a little while, and he's expected to sign that later today. again, just another way in which

this white house and the administration is trying to figure that it's standing united with ukraine, josé. >> thank you so much. next, an island paradise mystery. three americans found dead at a sandals resort in the bahamas. the government says it doesn't think there's foul play. the latest on that investigation, next. e latest ont e latest ont investigation, next.rld needs lr carbon solutions to keep up. at chevron, we're working to find new ways forward, through investments and partnerships in innovative solutions. ke renewable natural gas from cow waste, hydrogen-fueled transportation, and carbon capture. we may not know just what lies ahead, but it's only human... to search for it. this is what real food looks like fresh real meat and veggies. the food dogs where built to eat. the farmer's dog is changing the way we feed our pets.

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♪ ♪ cvs. healthier happens together. . a real mystery in paradise, three americans found unresponsive in two separate villas at a sandals resort in the bahamas. now an investigation is under way. local officials say they do not suspect foul play. nbc's kerry sanders joins me from the resort in great exuma. what do we know about their deaths? >> reporter: we're here at the sandals emerald bay resort on grand exuma. you're correct they were in separate villas, but it was one building with two units right on

the beach. that's where the focus is. we had vince and donna from panama city, florida. they were on one side of the villa. then there was another couple on the other side of the villa. the names have not been revealed just yet. both couples complained about headaches and nausea, they just didn't feel right. now the authorities are searching for a cause for this. so they're looking very closely at the utility room that serviced that beachfront villa. the air-conditioning unit, the hot water heater, the propane. because health officials say those problems of dizziness, headaches, nausea all sound consistent with symptoms that would come from poisoning from carbon monoxide. the only fortunate thing here that donis was able to get out

after witnesses found her. she was somewhat paralyzed. she was taken to a hospital in miami and has since been released. unfortunately, her husband and the other two were found dead inside the villa. they were here celebrating a 40th wedding anniversary. you come to the caribbean for a relaxing get away where you try to forget about the problems of the world and, unfortunately, this is what happened. later today we'll hear from the authorities here in the bahamas. this has already gone up to the level of the prime minister in the bahamas trying to determine and find out what happened. let's not forget that the number one industry in the bahamas is tourism. so the last thing they want is for this to spin out of control. but here at the sandals resort,

management has said very little. they're not telling the tourists staying here, the guests, they're not telling them much. in fact, only those who asked for information have been told there's an ongoing investigation. i think we'll probably get the clearest idea of what happened here once an autopsy is performed, because the autopsy may reveal some of the things that the investigators are trying to answer at this point, but that forensic information might give them for much of a conclusion of what took place. more victims have been found in the rubble of the massive hotel explosion in havana, cuba. havana's fire chief reports four more bodies were recovered overnight, bringing the number of deaths to 35. dozens are injured or hospitalized after the explosion of the hotel saratoga. the hotel was preparing to

reopen after being closed for two years when an apparent gas leak ignited. crews are still searching for survivors. that wraps up the hour for me. thank you for the privilege of your time. follow the show online at jdbalart msnbc. diamond hands highlights the real life players who joined forces online to take on some of the most powerful financial institutions in america. that's sunday, 10:00 p.m. eastern, msnbc and streaming on peacock. "andrea mitchell reports" starts right now. ♪♪ t now. t now. ♪ as part of 88 billion to support underserved communities...

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