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new york i'm ayman mohyeldin it is election night in america, and we are going to go straight to steve kornacki at the big board who has some breaking news for, us just in the last couple of minutes. steve, take it. away >> yes, even for folks who are watching this, hour we said we would get one big batch of votes, to san francisco about 12 minutes ago, we did. it's the mail-in vote, this is the recalled of the district attorney, just about dean. and you could see it's two thirds more of the vote over 60% voting yes an nbc news has now declaring that the district attorney of san francisco has been recalled from office. the margin from these mail-in ballots are just so enormous, you could see here nearly a 23 point spread in favor of him calling in for ops office. there just aren't going to be enough votes to overcome that. even if you were to do well with what is to come. he is getting absolutely blown out here. he will be recalled from office. what does that mean,? immediately, it means that

chesa boudin loses his job. who takes the job? well, that will not be the decision of the mayor of san francisco, london breed will now appoint the new district attorney, there will be an election, a special election that will be held later this. year and then the [inaudible] four-year term will be up in 2023. so a couple things are going to happen in a point with the special election, made an election for full term. but chesa boudin will be out when all the votes are counted. you could see here, more than 60%, or more than two thirds of the foot, in more than 60% of san francisco's -- san franciscans are voting to remove him from office. >> steve, was this trending in this way over the last couple of weeks? you probably had a better pulse of the polls in the way this was going for chesa boudin. >> yeah, i mean it's tough to say. because it wasn't a heavily pulled race. but we did see some polling on this, certainly the early polling that we saw on this suggested that chesa boudin was likely to be removed from office, perhaps lopsidedly.

there was some indications and i think maybe it was more anecdotal. but there were some indications in the closing days in the campaign that perhaps that was tightening. but, again, when you get an additional report of this magnitude, you could just see here, it was what that initial polling suggested. it was a block. it will be interesting to see kind of around the margins. but what you're seeing here, as i say, again these are mail-in ballots. a lot of people who voted a week ago, two weeks ago, a couple of days ago. it makes up the vast majority of all vote. there still are people who went out to the polls, costed votes in person. it will be interesting to see if there's any difference in terms of how they voted, versus how the mail went. but this is a pretty -- again, this is san francisco, we are talking about not just one of the most democratic cities in a democratic state, california. we are talking about one of the most democratic cities in america. joe biden got 85% of the votes here in 2020. donald trump got 12% here. chesa boudin was arguably the

face of a movement that we've seen nationally in cities and counties around the country of progressive prosecutors who emphasize the term he would use was the car summation, who emphasized a different approach to criminal justice. we've seen a number of prosecutors get elected in jurisdictions around the country. there was a backlash, here in san francisco from pretty early in boudin term. that backlash. but we know in california, as opposed to some other states that the threshold you have to clear to get a recall on the ballot is lower in california than it is in other states. , so here it is. a recall got on the ballot here. just update, he was elected in 2019. here we are now in june of 2022. he will be out of office. >> he, a stunning verdict indeed. steve, we're just kicking off two hours of special coverage this evening. what else are you looking at right now before we come back to you throughout the course of the next two hours? >> yeah, so, a lot of attention here in california. we said that this is probably the marquee race, a lot of

people looking to see with voters in a place like san francisco recall and progressive prosecutor. , now we've answered that question, we will see what the final results look like. the other marquee race in california it's the mayor's race in lawson -- second largest city in the country. this is an open seat race, and what you've got right, now you can see we've got 40% or so of the vote is in. in red caruso, when you see it do, that it is searching for more votes. that's when it flickers like that. in case you are wondering but rick caruso, you could see right now leading congresswoman, karen bass 41 points to 37.8%. this really is a two person race at this. 0.50% is the threshold. if caruso, were to get the 50%, or for that matter if bass were to get to 50% tonight, they would win the job of maher on the spot. short of that, the top two finishes tonight are going to advance to a runoff, the runoff will be held in november. the winner of that will become the next mayor of los angeles.

what you are basically seeing here, right now, and what i'm curious about is the vast majority of the votes that have been counted so far in this new stories are those vote by mail ballots. those mail-in ballots. the stuff that came in early. the votes that were costed maybe a week or two ago. maybe a little bit longer than that. what they are starting to do now is to count up the same day vote. the people who went up to the polls and voted today. of, course that raises the question, is there a difference in how those votes voted in how the folks voted by mail. you've already seen caruso take up about half a point as we started counting the same day vote. is there any possibility he did much better and the same day vote, it is 41.2 starts to rise and he can get into the mid or high 40s when we start to talk about that 50%? it will take an awful lot for that to happen. but that is one thing we want to look at as that same day vote starts to get reported. up but caruso, bass, very possibly this could be the

start tonight of a campaign that culminated in november. that's the other marquee race in california. and the final thing in california, we'll be keeping an eye on, a number of house races in california. remember, they do a top two primary system. democrats, republicans, everybody is on the same ballot. the top to advance to the general election. a couple of we can flags for you. i think this might be the most interesting right here, republican incumbent david valadao is an essential -- volley of -- valadao a republican who voted to impeach donald trump following january six. and, so here is the, dynamic you will, see there is a democrat and there are several republicans in this. race what's amicus nationally have been hoping for here is that valadao would get knocked off by one of these are the republicans. one of these are the republicans to jump up, finish in second place, and then valadao would lose on the spot. he would not advance to november. in fact, democrats have spent

some money, in particular trying to prop up this candidate, chris mathys who says that he's in the race. because valadao voted to impeach. trump they say he's the pro trump alternative in this race. so, we've only got a little bit less than a fifth of the voting right. now obviously, rudy salas, that's the name of the democrat. he's a state legislator, he is going to advance into the general election here. valadao's lead into his nearest republican challenger sits at seven points right now. you, see there is another republican there at 10%, right here. can valadao hold on to second place? what's left to be counted here. a lot of the votes are left to be counted. they're going to be the same day votes. the same day votes. the election day votes. the republican primary -- to the trump friendly candidate. so, we're keeping a close eye on this valadao race in particular. there are several others in california, we'll get to over the next few hours. they're a critical both tonight and potentially in november. and, one final thing i want to

flag for folks as we mentioned, this one earlier. a different part of the country, this is in mississippi. the third congressional district, and you have a republican incumbent here, congressman michael guest, he's in trouble, right now as you can, see he's chilling that more than 80% of the votes recorded right now. and here's the, deal mississippi is a runoff state. nobody gets 50%. the top two here would go to a runoff. but why is this republican incumbent in trouble with so many of the votes counted in this district? guest voted to establish that bipartisan january six commission. that's become an issue in this campaign. and you could, see right, now he's trailing a challenger who tried to get to his right on that and other issues. it could very well end up that neither gets 50. they go to a runoff. the runoff would be held on june 28th. and you've got a republican incumbent who is in some serious jeopardy in the third district in mississippi. you also, for that matter, for different reasons, have a republican incumbent in the

fourth district of mississippi. this is steven palazzo, a congressman, look at, this he's drawn a whole -- there's a scandal involving him. he's only had a 31%, he's headed to a runoff for an incumbent to be an only 31% heading into runoff. it remains to bc who he will face it looks like from jackson county the most likely. but, again you've got two incumbents who are in danger, republican incumbent in mississippi, you've got the valid dale situation that we're watching in california, a bunch of other races, and congressional righteous that will get to the race. and i'm just gonna keep doing this a lot tonight. and a lot for the next few hours. we want to see what is going to happen in this mayoral race. in los angeles >> all, right steve thanks for starting, house of take a quick breather. we're going to try to look at some of these issues behind some of these key races, we're going to check back in with you throughout the rest of the evening. and, as voters went to the polls, obviously one of the big question.

as well as one of the questions i will tell later this fall, is of, course the old adage of, you, know it's the economy stupid? gas prices are creeping towards a national average. $5 a gallon. and, on that issue of inflation, president biden's treasury secretary, janet yellen, appeared a day before the senate finance committee, taking questions. and, she admitted that americans are likely to see inflation elevated for the foreseeable future. but, unemployment remains low. and wages are up. so, it is not all bad news. the question is, how is that mixed out playing with voters and some of these races? here to talk about that and, of course, a lot more as well as the result we just got in from steve, our expert panel. david, love the former 2008 campaign manager and witnessing your adviser to president barack obama. he's also an msnbc political and -- deputy chief of staff to president barack obama, the campaign manager for the 2012 reelection campaign. tim miller, former aide to jeff

bush's 2016 presidential campaign, he is now a writer for the bulwark and an msnbc political analyst, maria to lisa kumar, the president of the co vote to latinos. she is also an msnbc contributor. let me start with a big news out of san francisco, the one that we just got within a couple minutes ago. david, your reaction to san francisco, now officially recalling chesa boudin, progressive district attorney, won that a lot of progressive side look towards what he was doing in san francisco. clearly, the resident of san francisco felt differently. >> right, so i'm a resident of san francisco, and a voter. now i will speak to that in a minute. i will make a general, point i think that this will be over red by finance. that reform prosecutors, right left and, center once over the country will have been successful. state legislative efforts incarcerations, are sensing reform second chances.

now for the, unique fosters -- that led to this. but, i do think, you know one lesson that i've learned in politics, is that you can tell people who don't feel safe, they feel safe. there's statistics. their status. some statistics are showing that crime that they've, reduced other statistics like home robberies increased. but, generally, there is a sense of people not being safe. and i would also say that this is not a specific recall for the district attorney's rays. there is general unease right, now people are pretty, unhappy even the single -- biggest 60, you know people are struggling with inflation. so, i think one thing i'm looking for november is that we are going to have a little bit more undertone that sucks that more incumbents that we might normally see. but, yeah, i think that this race, there wasn't a lot of poland, and as steve kornacki said, what was out there suggested that he was going to lose by 1821 points. and i think that's what happened, tonight, obviously. >> so, tim, you don't think that there should be a broader reading of the progressive

movement like, david was suggesting when you look at some of the broader progressive da's in this country whether be philadelphia or elsewhere? >> i think that there should be, san francisco's 90%, it's 77% republic, it's not 70%. it's overwhelmingly democrat. there are no republicans in san francisco. so, this election was with democrat policing themselves. and i think that in an occurring way, steve was talking about the republican primary >> -- they're not replacing themselves. they want their candidates to be even more trumpy. democratic voters are saying, you know, look, we don't want liberal candidates. we still are okay, as david was just -- saying the criminal justice reform. we are still okay with holding killer cops and racist cops accountable. we still want gun reform. but we can't go overboard with some of the. stuff, and when we see san francisco, with some of the sentencing choices, the homelessness being out of the control. some of the school board was doing keeping school close, there was some parts of the

progressive activists movement in the past two years after george floyd, and after covid that went further than what voters wanted, and what democratic voters want. and i think that if democratic politicians don't get that message that they can still be and they could still run a progressive campaign but they need to stay away from some of these things like defunding the police and becoming conscious of concerns like voter safety. i think they'll make a mistake if they get that message out tonight. >> maria, your reaction to the stunning defeat there for chested body. >> i don't think you are study if you are paying attention to what was happening in san francisco. and i think that's the message. earlier we are seeing engaged population to mandate that the people that they elect actually see the results, we saw earlier with the school board where all of us in this whole school board was flip because of choices that they made that are not converse with the population demanded. and it is true, that is why they vote, it's for checks and balances, and it's for recognizing, at the end of the day that the person at the top

is actually working for the people. which, we don't see unfortunately on the republican side. republicans on the republican side where you see republicans with gun reform that people don't like their offices, don't do that. so it wasn't a surprise. it was something that was bubbling up. and the voters have decided that this was not the person for them because they did not feel safe in the city. >> jim, from all the headlines that we're just going through with steve, did anything stand out to you at the gate? >> look, i think two things, you know, apparently if you're barack obama former campaign manager in san francisco even fight to -- [laughs] >> and i kind of agree with david that it similar. but the states, democrats are just like everyone else, they just want to be safe and they want their school boards to work. and so if you look at chesa boudin getting beat so bad tonight. and if you look at caruso kind of running on a platform in l.a., in the leading go getter. i think it's democrats-ing, look, let's go back to the

center here. let's set a very clear message around what we want. and, unlike the republicans, as jim just said, the mississippi primary one is crazy for. me all the guy said, we have to have a january six committee to look into this. and, apparently, that is a cardinal sin now in the republican party. and he is going down tonight over. it and, so you've got the democrats going back to the center of the republicans continuing to move to their crazy right. >> all right, i'm going to ask all of you to just stay with us. we are going to squeezing a quick break. and we're gonna talk more about the economy and what that means ahead of the election as well, as congressman jamie raskin saying that the january six committee has a mountain of evidence that puts donald trump at the very center of the effort to subvert the 2020 election. we are going to discuss what to expect in the first public hearing of the january six committee on thursday. the dual action effect that really takes care of both our teeth sensitivity as well as our gum issues. there's no question it's something that i would recommend.

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committee's first primetime public hearing will be this thursday night. and as part of their effort to make the case that what we witnessed on january six was the result of weeks and months of planning by donald trump and his allies, the committee is reportedly expected to focus on far-right extremist groups like, the so-called pipe boys, and the oath keepers. one of the key witnesses will be filmmaker, nick quest that, who had been embedded with a convoys in the lead up to and during the january six prior. during that new york times reports, that quest quote, is

by the committee, likely to have been a witness to their conversations, and planning for january six. video that quest shot on january 5th showing enrique tarrio, in a covert meeting with his counterpart, from the far-right militia group, the oath keepers, and other trump activists, this is one of many pieces of evidence of the committee is expected to present to the public. as i mentioned, and we go, stereotype leader of the proud boys, and for other top members of the extremist groups, were all indicted monday on charges of seditious compares conspiracy. stemming from january the 6th. now we are expected to hear from caroline edwards, she is a capitol police officer who is one of the first to be injured on that day. and according to court documents, one of the rioters allegedly asked her why are you standing in our way? we are also learning about the secret services reaction when donald trump said this on january the 6th. >> after this, we are gonna

walk down, and i'll be there with you, we are gonna walk down, we are gonna walk down anyone you want, but i think right here, we're gonna walk down to the capitol. and we are gonna cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women. because you'll never take back our country with weakness. you have to show strength. and you have to be strong. >> so how are those remarks, that were said by the president, interpreted by the people that were actually tasked with keeping president trump safe? the washington post reports quote, witnesses have told the house january six committee that immediately after trump made those remarks, secret service agents contacted d.c. police, about blocking intersections, according to the people briefed on that testimony. police officials declined as they were stretched thin because they were monitoring numerous protests. later assisting with a growing mob that was taking place at

the capitol. senior law enforcement official told the washington post, that the presidents detail later scuttle the idea as untenable and unsafe. those are just a few of what congressman jamie raskin says is a mountain of evidence that place is donald trump at the very center of a plateau to overturn the 20 election. >> we just have an absolute mountain of evidence about what took place. our problem is really distilling the core elements of all of these events. to share with the people. it was not a tourist visit. it was not a legitimate political discourse. it was not a discourse of any kind. it was violence. unleashed against the people of the united states, and our representatives in congress. all of it was surrounding a concerted, pre-existing plot, to overturn and destroy the

results of the 2020 presidential election. >> all right, let's continue this conversation now with barbara mcquade, former u.s. attorney for the eastern district of michigan, she is now a professor at university of michigan law school, and co-host of the podcast sisters and law. she is also msnbc legal analyst. also with, us harry lippman, former federal prosecutor deputy assistant up to attorney general, under president clinton. he is now legal affairs for the los angeles times. it's. great to have both of you with, us barbara let me start with you, you have presented huge cases and your career. this is different. though this is not really a case but it is a case to be made to the general public. how do you expect the committee will present its case tomorrow? >> well what we got is a sneak preview of some of the witnesses, i think one of the things that is important here is to make a compelling case. in a courtroom, in a jury, in front of a jury, the jurors are a captive audience. they have to sit there, they have to listen.

you don't lose their attention. here, they are all kinds of distractions before the american people. so i think that they need to hear something new. things that they haven't heard before. and i think they need to do it in a way that captures their attention. we've heard reporting that there is likely to be a multi media presentation to see video, i think it'll be very interesting to see video and text messages all juxtapose on a timeline. that the time that the capitol was breached. where was donald trump? but was he doing? what were the text messages back and forth about the urgency of the matter? i think all of those things together could paints a very compelling picture that will capture the attention of the american people. >> so harry, one theory is that this is geared towards the american people, the other theory is that this is solely geared to attorney general merrick garland as a possible target, and therefore being an audience of one. ultimately, this committee has no power to bring in any charges or indictment against the former president, or his potential, or legit

coconspirators. it will be merrick garland who was that power, and that authority. could he be the intended audience from the presentation come thursday? >> now they would love it if eventually it's a referral and he follows the recommendation. but i don't think so. i think it really is the american people, and to play off of what barr said, a jury, not only has a set, there but there is a lot of dull moments. they cannot have a dull moment, and they know that. in addition, to complicate their lives, they have republicans with a literal playbook, looking to disparage their work. dominion as political, and alike. and they will also count on january six fatigue. they have got a lot of challenges. they have to be very lively, but also comprehensive. so thursday, there will be trying to paint the overall portrait, i think they are determined to plow ahead. notwithstanding possible goal opposition. and if nothing else, if nothing

of, get the full picture out for history. they of course what the american people to register a new. the outrage and here it, feel fresh details. but this is really also a painting for the future. >> barbs, one of the most incredible things about this particular crime was that it was perhaps the most televised and live streamed crime, in the modern era. you had the criminals literally livestreaming themselves as they were attempting to storm the congress and getting inside. we know from the department of justice and some of the early briefings that this was going to be a massive investigation. how do the investigators, particularly those on capitol hill, who have presented this tomorrow. how did these investigators deal with that much evidence? >> yeah, it can be overwhelming. you heard congressman raskin there talk about sifting through all of this evidence. can be a daunting challenge. sometimes there is this

information overload concept. i think one of their challenges will be two very selective and showing just the most compelling testimony. or the most compelling video footage that they have. you could also get numb to this. you may recall that during the rodney king trial back in the 90s, one of the defense tactics was to play the videos so many times of the police beating, that eventually the jury became kind of a nerve to. it kind of numb to. wet and it lost some of its shock value. i think there is a risk of the same thing happening here. when you have already seen a lot of these videos. so i think that is why we are hearing that they are gonna be things like that are new. that according to congressman raskin, will blow the roof off the house. we can't just see the same things, and i think it's a big task, sometimes there is the old mark twain quote, i would've written a shorter letter but i ran out of time. the editing process, being really judicious. and with a show us is what's really important part of their task for tomorrow.

>> harry, quickly on this front, which is the interviewing style of the numbers of congress. talk to me about how they go about questioning the witnesses in all of this? there is a chance that we could, and reportedly hear from ivanka trump, and jared kushner. how do they prosecute those interviews so to speak? >> first, do no harm. so i think it's likely that we will hear from trump and kushner by video. cause they won't want to take the chance of a wrestling match that they lose. cassidy hutchinson, michael go dean, secret service that you were just talking about aim in, those will be different. but they will be very carefully choreographed to be crisp, four or five questions, maybe a videotape, move on. keep it quick and keep it informative. but, don't take any big risks. >> harry, lippman, barbara -- thank you for both of you for us breaking that down. we'll see what happens on thursday.

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up and wait. we've got a big batch of votes that came. out this is basically the mail-in vote. all right with caruso leading congresswoman, karen bass. what we're waiting on now is there's going to be a lot of. these the votes that were cast it same days that were not today on election day. and voted. but, basically the question is, is somehow caruso winning the election day vote by a massive margin? a different margin than we're seeing in the mail ballots? a margin that would be big enough to lift his overall number from, you, c 41 changed right now to be 50%. because that's what he would need to win this on the spot. he would need to get to 50%. if you can't do that, for that, matter if karen bass can't do that and the two of them are going to head to a runoff in november. the mayor will be desired it then. so it's just a question about what that same day vote would be. we haven't seen much of it, yet we want to get a sense of what it looks, like but i think that would give us clarity on how this is going to land, eventually, again looking at the mail in vote, right there. a couple of other races to update you on though that we

are keeping an eye on. as you say, some congressional primaries, some significant ones, we told you about david valadao, republican in california central valley who voted to impeach donald trump. again, they do this top two primary system in california, so you see a democrat, here rudy sell us the state legislator he will be advancing to the november general election. the question though is, which of these the republicans will be his opponent. you see david valadao is in second place right now. but chris mathys, a republican who has made david valadao a vote for impeachment, the defending issue of his campaign is still only less than nine points behind him. wild card here is that same day vote. we talk about that election day vote yet to be counted in this district. we've seen, in other parts of the country that same day vote has been the best in republican primaries for the trump aligned candidates. so, is david valadao going to get through this? we aren't intel early sure right, now one other income bit

keeping an eye on a california 's in the 40th district. this is young kim, she's a freshman congresswoman, one of the first korean american women ever elected to congress in 2020. now again, you see doctor oz, the democrat is going to advance in november, this is one of those dynamics were greg is running on the pro trump right trying to get to the right of young national republicans who are very nervous about kim finishing out of the top two here. they poured a ton of money into her campaign. trying to hold back raths we have not projected that kimmel finished second, yet but you see she is double digits ahead of raths right now. certainly, her chances of making that general election make it look decent, right now, one other house race, it's not in california. it's a bit of a surprise. we are going to take you on a journey here. up to montana, actually, i want to go to the other side of montana. montana, now, has two congressional districts. and in the first congressional district in montana, you see, nearly clearly -- created one, remember this name,

inky reince inky former interior secretary, montana politician for that comes back to run for this new hot seat. and look at, this he's gotta fight on his hands this is the former state senator who is within a point of ryan zinke and more than half the vote counted, the margin there is 426. folks there's all sorts of controversy around zinke when he was the inter secretary. his use of government money, government services and you can see that with olszewki big issue in this campaign. so this is one landing in our radar, unexpectedly tonight is ryan zinke in some trouble in republican primary. all right, steve we're gonna keep an eye on that and all the other races that you highlighted for us. don't go anywhere. as we mentioned at the top of the program, the economy is certainly going to be something on the minds of voters. another issue that could weigh heavily on voters during these primaries and come november, gun control. the horrific massacres at robb elementary school in uvalde,

texas as well as the massacre in buffalo have really put that front and center in the conscience of voters mine. and it was brought to the white house, today by matthew mcconaughey. watch. >> we are -- families of this disease, mothers, fathers, sisters, hunters, border patrols and responsible gun owners who won't give up their second amendment right to bear arms. you know they all said? we want secure and safe schools and we walk on lost that won't make it so easy for the buckeyes to get these damn guns. >> all right, we are back with david plouffe, tim miller, and joining the conversation now is john allen, nbc national politics, a reporter. gentlemen, before i get to the gun issue, i just wanted to get your thoughts on the economy. because we are a little bit pressed for time, earlier. david, how big of a factor will the story of the economy come november? because as i mentioned, at the top, there it is not all bad news. inflation is a factor, people are definitely feeling the

pinch. but at the same time, as i mentioned, unemployment is down, wages are up. >> well, it is always the big issue in every question. and, so if this is simply an upper down vote on the economy, it would be historically catastrophic elections. so, their mission, and jim remember this obviously since 2012, barack obama got reelected with an unemployment rate around a percent. the highest any president got reelected. but we made that a choice between what rodney would do for the economy. he would fight for who obama would fight for, and the trajectory of the economy was getting there. so, democrats have to put this breed of republicans on trial. they aren't going to do anything that are going to help your family. they are going to be focused on doing the bidding of the trump. so, you've got to win the economic heart of it that, they are going to basically take care of the wealthy and be distracted with cultural cycles. but then, also on guns, on health care, on issues like,

should we be a democracy or not? we have a huge advantage a party with voters. so, why this is important is a little bit connected to the discussion having earlier with san francisco. you've got to remember, let's talk about georgia and arizona. two broad states, 20 -- there are twice as many conservative voters as liberal voters in the state. biden's presidency, because we won moderate voters by two thirds. even in the state like wisconsin, biden had to win 50% of moderate voters. , so that is what you want to do. obviously, turnout is really important with the base. if it's lopsided, it's a hard thing to overcome in an office. but, for those moderate, voters you gotta disqualified the republicans an answer on the economy. tell your code story, of, course the incumbent on the economy. particularly on the infrastructure. bills that, then also make some of these other issues where moderate voters really are different from the republicans, on all of. them and support the democratic position. make those fun center, as. well, so this is a complicated election here for democrats. because you gotta get all of that done in a tough political

environment. but it's possible i think wing candidates have the right kind of skill. but, you are going to, really really, really have to put the republicans on child and say that they are going to do anything to help you on the economy. and then swing some of these other issues. because it is not a choice to win the moderate vote. in a swing district or swing state. it is a necessity. and if you don't do that, democrats can't win. >> jim, your thoughts on how democrats message around this mixed bag of the economy ahead of november? >> well, look, i think that these elections are always about the economy, but david has been right, this has to be a choice. and biden says this is the best when he says, don't compare me to the almighty. compare me to the other guy. and, eventually, november we are gonna get to the choice between democrats and republicans. and we've got to be very clear about why we're on voters sides on the economy. but, if you look at polling, it is very interesting that it changes your stance. because, yes inflations, number one. but what is coming up to two and three? guns and abortion. and those are two social issues

where democrats have a very big advantage and can go on the offense. but, we cannot forget the economy and the economic inflation issues. we have to have a clear message. and we have to win these moderate voters that are going to decide who wins this election. >> tim, speaking of guns and the other social issues that republicans have tried to make us wedge issues when you think of school boards, when you think of everything that happened with the coronavirus, talk to me about the guns issue? do you think that guns will be front and center come november for both democrats and republicans or perhaps one side more than the other? >> yeah, i don't know that it will be front and center. and, look the only two guys who know how to win a democrat, for me to the eight to give them ex vice. but here's my thing on. guns i feel like the democrats have been a little bit afraid to run on this issue for a long time right now. you know, they've been twice been. by the gun issue. but i think that would have been in uvalde, there's something that is different about it. you saw what mcconaughey was doing at the white house podium

today. i think that if the democrats made this a narrow fight on something that people really get, that these moderate voters were talking about really, understand which is we do not want guns in the hands of every kid, at your concise. you know, when you go to high school pick up this week, do you want every single kid at the school to be able to order an ar-15 online? and ordered 370 bullets on line? and, if they have the bad day, they can come into the score come to the football game? i don't -- i think that's about a 20% issue for republicans. and, sometimes i think that democrats get a little bit lost in this because the macro is a particularly good for them. but i think a micro issue on the 21 age, the red flag logs, meaning -- they made an actual campaign on. that a hard time in cases, running ads, scary out, maybe if necessary. i think that it could be something that moves certain voters, you, know who a lot of the types of voters that david is talking about that are crossed pressured on the economy that don't really love the more extreme side of the

republican party. or actually hostile mix side of the republican party. >> john, i'm gonna get to you about the politics of actually getting something done. but, david since you were name checked thereby. tim what do you think? what do you make up whether not democrats should run scary at, should run the issue of gun control on a baseline of some of these things, 21 age minimum requirement by gun, trying to ban assault rifles, red flag laws? are those issues that democrats should make front and center? >> well, you know, the people who need to answer that question are the actual candidates on operatives who are running races in those states and districts, to be clear. but, if they think that it's -- and i think that it. is my point is that you need to run a fierce campaign on the economy where you are going to have an advantage if the trajectory changes. but you may go to really muddled this up. so, voters think republicans aren't going to be any better. they certainly won't work after working people in the class. so, then, on abortion on democracy, on guns you figure

out the voters that can be persuaded on. that i agree with him. i think that we should be very aggressive. and we see if the republicans take over control, you're gonna have ar-15s, basically in every school, hospital, church in this country. we may not be a democracy after 2024. and, they are gonna pass a law, tried to pass a law to outlaw courts at the federal level. those are not supported by more than 20% of the electors. , so what you have to do is basically take care of your flag on the economy and make aggressive cases where you can. so that you can make positive ground -- i very much agree with that. and i think you've got to be on the offense on. those and i think that there's going to be some republicans in the senate, perhaps, who are hopefully going to vote for some common sense measures. but most republican candidates, and both republican incumbents on guns -- most of them support all on abortion. so you can run a very aggressive campaign. you just can't ignore your economic. like >> jonathan, you covered this issue for a very long time, as well as covering american politics. do you see any potential of an

agreement on gun reform or gun control between now and november? what are you hearing about any type of compromise from your sources on capitol hill? >> you know, i think if we look at it as an index, the less aggressive gun reform or gun restriction is, the more likely it is to get the. and the more robust it is, the more aggressive this and the less likely it is to get. done so, that hasn't changed. nothing has moved the needle in congress, the time that i've been encumbered for 20 years. you, know in that time we have seen sandy hook, we've seen marjorie stone douglas, we've seen gaby giffords and member of congress get shot in the head. we've seen republican members of congress get shot on a baseball field. none of those things moved the needle. and, basically, unless significant portion of republican constituents change their mind and tell their lawmakers that they want to see more restrictions on guns and access to them then that's not

gonna happen in congress. >> all right, gentlemen, stay with me. we're gonna squeeze in a quick break, continue the conversation on the other side of it. r side of it. patients should act now to prevent sensitivity in the future. the new sensodyne nourish will help patients invest in healthier teeth. ♪ ♪ the new sensodyne nourish will aleve x.ients its revolutionary rollerball design delivers fast, powerful, long-lasting pain relief. aleve it, and see what's possible.

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>> look i, do i think this election is going to be about women. voters and women voters care very deeply about this issue. they continue to see -- posters and elected officials they want some movement on gun reform. they don't want abortion taken away. the story of this election will be, can republicans scare these voters on inflation? or can democrats have an economic message, and move the fight to how extreme republicans are on issues like guns, and like abortion. >> tim, we are about 45 seconds, last i want to get your thoughts on what you think republicans are gonna be running on simply scaring the american public, whether it's about crt, gay rights, don't say gay at schools, the rhonda desantis goal of governing. what do you think they're central issues are going to be? >> i'm, i think all of that's not that you mentioned, there but they are gonna try to put it in a broader context of confidence. and i think that republicans are gonna do their darndest, if you watch republican media, the biden administration as adrift, or worse than that frankly, i

think what massena and plump have been saying, that is what democrats are gonna have to fight back against. a sense that maybe this administration doesn't have control of the switch when it comes to inflation and the economy. >> gentlemen, i'm sorry we are out of time, thanks to david, love -- dan allen, msnbc special primary night coverage comes continues after this break. after this break hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire so this is the meta portal plus. a smart video calling device that makes working from home work. a 12-megapixel lens makes sure your presentation is crystal clear. and smart camera auto pans and zooms to keep you perfectly in frame. oh, and it syncs with your calendar. plus, with zoom, microsoft teams, and webex, you'll never miss a meeting. and neither will she. now that's a productive day. meta portal:

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