at the white house following his first middle east trip this morning. we'll go through what, if anything, was accomplished in his controversial visit with the saudi crown prince. we'll get to all of that. first, let's dive into the top story this morning. it's sounding much more likely that an announcement from former president trump for a 2024 election bid is more of a when, not an if. it is not just about avenging a loss, though. four people with knowledge of the situation tell "rolling stone" that mounting legal issues are a motivating factor for trump's desire to retake the white house. one of the sources who discussed the issue with the former president over the summer told the magazine, "he says when, not if he is president again, a new republican administration will put a stop to the justice department investigation that he

views as the biden administration working to hit him with criminal charges, or even put him and his people in prison." according to the justice department's office of legal counsel, a sitting president cannot be charged with a federal crime. now, the same is not true for a prosecution at a state level. however, that would possibly go to the supreme court. let's bring in the host of "way too early" and white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. former staff for hillary clinton. good to have you both on board this morning. >> not a surprise. a lot of people have been talking for some time that donald trump may seek re-election to avoid prosecution. it seems -- of course, you have a new book coming out that goes through everything donald trump has done, certainly everything he did around january 6th, that now seems to be landing him in

hot water. not just politically, as we heard from mike allen on your show, but it is impacting him politically and legally at the justice department. talk about it. >> yeah, there's no question that the investigaive pressure on former president trump ramped up dramatically. the january 6th hearings, of course, which we'll see in primetime on thursday, which are laying out such a clear-cut case as to his dereliction of duty on the 6th itself, but also everything he did heading into that. how he sowed the seed of chaos that, of course, erupted into violence at the capitol that day. there are also prosecutions, one in georgia, gaining steam. there's matters in new york. there's a lot happening here for the former president, and he is -- he and his aides are looking to potentially jump into this race, maybe even sooner than later, maybe even before the midterm elections, muchto the dismay of his fellow republicans who think he'd be a distraction. the department of justice, which has been reluctant and slow to

move on trump and his allies, they might even be more so if trump were a declared candidate. it is one thing to prosecute a former president. another thing, a former president and favorite to be the nominee for his party again. and, of course, as "rolling stone" reports, were trump to win again, the department of justice guideline, that legal counsel guideline about how a sitting president can't be charged for a federal crime, would come into play, as well. we heard about all that during trump's first term. yes, that is another reason why he and his aides are eyeing the oval office. but, as you say, joe, his political standing has weakened. he's the loudest voice in the republican party, but his grip on the gop is not quite what it wasn't was. >> adrienne, go back to, whether you look at the mueller investigation, where you have robert mueller basically saying in testimony that, yeah, he would have been indicted if he weren't the president. ten examples of obstructing justice. examples of his actions with

russia that obviously would have caused real legal concerns for anybody not inside the white house. and you understand why he's thinking about running. but here, we find donald trump once again talking about doing what's best for donald trump while undermining the republican party. how much would democratic candidates love to have donald trump back on the campaign trail saying all the crazy things that he says every day and making the 2022 election about a referendum on donald trump again, just like 2018? >> yeah. i mean, joe, first of all, i have learned, being on hillary clinton's campaign in 2015 and '16, that you should never underestimate donald trump. we thought he'd be in the race three weeks when he announced running, then we know what history ended up being. but in this situation, i think jonathan laid it out perfectly. he is damaged goods in his party, in many respects. he has support, sure. but the fact he is polling -- and depending on which poll you

look at -- anywhere from 47% to 49% among republican party voters, that is a dramatic difference from where he was even just two years ago. so i think the january 6th committee has certainly had a major impact. obviously, the elections, the primary elections, he's not had a great track record. a lot of the candidates who he has endorsed have not gone on to win their primary. so him getting in the race now, i mean, you know, again, we'll see how everything plays out, but i think it is going to end up being a net positive for democrats. because, as you laid out, i mean, he's going to go out there every day and say crazy things. we have not heard a lot from donald trump the last year because he's not on social media, not on twitter. i think he's going to be given a platform again to not only go out and say the crazy things he says but also give president biden and other democrats who are running in the midterm elections a contrast, somebody to contrast their message with

and show, listen, maybe democrats aren't perfect, but look what you may get if you don't support us. i think it is probably going to end up being a net positive, should he jump in the race relatively early, which is what he is saying. >> mika, you look at what's been happening in these republican primaries, and adrienne is right, many of donald trump's picks have lost primary races. even worse news for republicans, a lot of them have won. as we say here, you can't really call them ultraconservative. i mean, so many of them have flip-flopped. jd vance, i love san francisco. i hate san francisco. i love the tech community. i hate the tech community. dr. oz, i mean, my god, what a bizarre story that is. >> yeah. >> you have -- you look at arizona. you look at georgia. you've just got a lot of freaks and weirdos and insurrectionists who were running, and we're

starting to see now what we saw in 2014 when the republican establishment said no more. no more. >> right. >> this is ridiculous. these tea party people have turned the corner, and they're just full on crazy now. so they started funding more establishment candidates. i think we're starting to see that now in some of these key, pivotal races for the senate, where republicans just aren't able to raise funds. mike allen earlier in "way too early" was talking about ohio. that's just one of many examples. >> yeah. i think the backdrop, of course, is the economy, and that can always be a tough issue for the party in power, the president in power to run on. midterms are always tough for the sitting president's party. having said that, you talk about freaks and weirdos and insurrectionists. i mean, those are stark -- there are stark issues that back up

those phrases. i mean, abortion, roe v. wade going down and women losing their right to an abortion. being on the side of the shooter in mass shootings, where 18-year-olds buy ar-15s, that's a very extreme issue to be on that side of. >> well -- >> and insurrectionists -- >> to be on the side of 18-year-old people that have serious mental problems, being able to purchase those weapons, yeah. i mean, that's -- so many of these shootings would never happen but for extremists in the republican party who support people who are mentally deranged with absolutely -- >> being able to guy those guns. >> being able to buy those guns. >> the insurrectionists who are extreme trump supporters are not even watch the hearings. but for those in power in washington, d.c., to not be saying something right now, not to be able to answer a question

about january 6th, that's a problem. you're right, you can label them as insurrectionists, and it won't be an exaggeration. we have something that frames this out a little, as well, possibly. some new fundraising numbers show major momentum for democrats in some key senate races ahead of november's midterm elections. from april to june, democrats candidates in high-profile contests around the country blew away their leading republican challengers. in arizona, trump-backed blake masters brought over $800,000 last quarter. compared to more than $13 million for incumbent democrat mark kelly. in pennsylvania, despite being absent from the campaign trail due to a stroke, democrat john fetterman raised nearly five times amount of celebrity doctor mehmet oz in the spring. in georgia, though republican herschel walker raised an

impressive $6.2 million, wow, it paled in comparison to warnock's $17.2 million. the numbers tell a story. >> they do. let's bring in co-founder of axios, mike allen. we've been talking for some time on this show about how the republican party getting crazier and crazier. at some point, they've already lost the suburbs of northern atlanta. they've already lost the suburbs of philadelphia. certainly did in '20, and i suspect they will again in '24. '22, everything tilts their way. but despite the massive advantages they have going into '22, you write a fascinating story at axios about how, whether you're talking about pennsylvania, whether you're talking about georgia, whether you're talking about arizona, even ohio, these democrats are

out-fundraising their republicans who are supposed to run away with the race this year. >> joe, this is a real canary in the coal mine. you're right, we've been focus on the red wave, right, which we still think is coming in the house. but republicans now recognize they could lose the senate. couple months ago, we would have said that they looked likely to take the senate. but i'm told by republicans to look for these fundraising deficits all across the country, these reports that came in friday night. we're just seeing all of them. what republicans will tell you, joe, is that they would rather take the environment, how people are feeling about the direction of the country and the economy, they'd rather take that over money, honey, any day. but this lack of money is really hurting the campaigns. we're seeing it in ohio. you mentioned there, tim ryan, how far ahead he is of jd vance. what's the consequence of that?

this summer, usually a time when campaigns are sleeping, tim ryan is on the airwaves in ohio, unanswered by jd vance, saying that he is conservative friendly. he can reach swing voters. he shows a sheriff in an ad. he has an anti-china ad. he hits jd vance for being a hit at washington cocktail parties. all possible because of this money disparity. >> yeah. we, of course, jonathan lemire, remember in 2012, early fundraising and early ad buys by barack obama, featuring romney as an out of touch corporate raider. all the spending unmatched may impact later on in the year. rather go with the environment, the environment of the wave, which they should get in '22,

but fundraising is really the leading indicator of the environment. if somebody doesn't want to give you money, there's a reason. it's because they're watching tv. on tv, they're seeing the january 6th hearings. they're watching tv, and on tv they're reading news stories about 10-year-old girls having to be driven across state lines so they don't have a forced birth of their rapist's baby. that's in ohio. one school shooting after another. let's do everything we can to keep ar-15s in the hands of 18-year-olds. please, let's do everything we can to stop universal backdrop checks. that's republicans. day after day after day after day, the extremist positions republicans are taking politically backfire against them. my gosh, it keeps getting worse.

now you have republicans in the state of texas suing the biden administration because they want mothers, they want the right to let mothers die on an operating table instead of having a life-saving operation when they're having extreme complications in pregnancy. i'm telling you, these are crazy, bizarre, extreme positions for republicans, independents, for democrats. this is what the republican party of 2022 seems hell bent on doing. >> positions far out of step with the rest of the mainstream. certainly, campaign strategists often believe that the summer is a time to define your opponent before the fall and the cam tan campaign season ramps up. you can lay the groundwork for the attack against your opponent. paint them as out of touch. the obama team not shy, that they believe the 2012 election against mitt romney was won in the spring and early summer. mike allen, certainly, republicans have said they feel like the environment is good. by that, they mostly mean the

economy, right? inflation is surging. this is a thought that perhaps it's peaked. too early to say. gas prices are down, but white house acknowledges they're too high and could go back up. there's that. but to joe's point, it seems like there are other matters in the news right now. there was "the new york times" poll last week suggesting what americans are concerned about right now, are issues that might play toward the democrats' strength. that is the supreme court's decision to overturn roe v. wade. that is the mass shootings. these are things that, should that continue, won't democrats expect to only ramp up the fundraising advantage? >> yeah. this could be a real contest as to what the country is talking about, when you have the uvalde report showing those system failures there. when you have new revelations, we expect thursday. every single time the january 6th committee has over delivered. jonathan, you know from your own conversations, they would not have asked the networks for time in primetime if they didn't have

surprising findings that are going to drive more conversation this summer. so it makes it harder for democrats. what republicans will tell you, in the end, people vote pocketbook. the signs there continue to be so bearish. front page of yesterday's "washington post," saying gas prices could be back up again in the fall. just the wrong time for democrats. goldman sachs did a survey of their 10,000 small businesses ahead of a summit here in d.c. this week. 93% of entrepreneurs said they expect a recession this year. that's where republicans are banking. what we're seeing there, jonathan, is a little bit the fact that so many of these candidates are outside the republican mainstream, as joe was pointing out. so they don't have some of the traditional fundraising hook-ups to republicans had. they're trying to do it with small dollar donations. those are the very people who are hit by inflation.

so that's a place inflation could hit republicans. >> mike allen, thanks so much for coming on the show. >> thank you, mike. >> come back a lot more. >> thanks, mika. >> you don't have to just go to lemire's show. >> yeah, mike. >> stick around and stay on ours, too. we love having you. >> all right. >> as always. >> so, mika, that is a fascinating report. i just want to underline, again, these extreme positions that republicans are taking in washington and across the country, they are extreme positions even if you look where most republicans are. most republicans don't believe like texas republicans believe, that a mother should be allowed to die on an operating table. instead of having the protections that the federal government is trying to have, that says you can't let a mother die on an operating table if she is having severe complications from a pregnancy. most americans don't want a

10-year-old girl who has been raped to have to cross state lines. republicans just openly come out and say that if 10-year-old girls -- a couple months ago, i think it was a mississippi republican, attorney general saying if a 12-year-old girl is raped, he believes the centralized state should compel her, this 12-year-old girl, to have a forced pregnancy to carry her rapist's baby full term, a forced pregnancy, regardless of what complications also, obviously, would have an impact there. guns, every day we see another example. in indiana yesterday, i believe, i think i read they have open carry laws. open carry laws are going all over the country. republicans don't want to do anything about 18-year-old crack pots being able to go and buy ar-15s.

and we read the horror of the uvalde story. and there is a horror. the bad decisions that were all made. all of that started with an 18-year-old being able to buy an ar-15. get this, 400 so-called -- about 400 so-called good guys outside -- >> with guns. >> -- and they stayed outside because republican lawmakers will not regulate the purchase of weapons of war. that's what it all boils down to. you know, republicans, they shame themselves by talking about doors needing to be locked and fences needing to be higher. no, all of that happened because an 18-year-old who was mentally unstable was able to go out and purchase an ar-15. >> yeah. >> a weapon of war. and voters aren't stupid. they know it's the republicans that are standing in the way of

sane gun safety regulations, sane public regulation, and it is costing them. >> i don't think it'll take the testimony from the cops on the scene to find out what was going on in their heads while they were trying to figure out how to confront a young man with a weapon of war, knowing what that could do. i mean, it's very different when they outgun the gunman. but the ability with his weapon, what he was able to do, they just did not know. the video is excruciating to watch. >> it really is. >> and it shows the problem. >> and republicans, the problem is that republicans believe across the country, republicans believe in washington, republicans believe in state legislatures that 18-year-old crack pots should have more firepower than police officers. >> should have the right to have a weapon of war. >> absolutely. >> you stand with the shooter when you hold that position. it is simple. look at the video, as well, and see if you really feel that way.

on abortion, do most of these republicans, would that apply to their daughters? >> no, of course not. >> of course not. the house select committee -- and this is on the insurrectionist angle of it -- is holding what could be its final public hearing. thursday at 8:00 p.m. in primetime, the panel will give a detailed account of what took place inside the white house while president trump's supporters stormed the capitol. lawmakers are specifically looking at the 187 minutes between trump's stop the steal rally on the ellipse and when he finally tweeted out a video telling his supporters that he loved them and to go home. meanwhile, the january 6th committee says it is hoping to have more evidence by thursday's hearing after subpoenaing the secret service for allegedly deleted text messages. the committee issued the subpoena on friday following a briefing by the department of homeland security's inspector general. earlier last week, the ig

revealed that after requesting pertinent records from the secret service for a probe into the insurrection, the agency said texts from january 5th and 6th had been accidentally erased when the phones were reset, as part of a device replacement program. yesterday, committee members expressed optimism that the messages could and would be recovered. >> we need 'em. we expect to get them by this tuesday. i was shocked to hear that they didn't back up their data before they reset their iphones. that's crazy. i don't know why that would be. >> i think we're going to know more tuesday. it is quite crazy that the secret service would actually end up deleting anything related to one of the more infamous days in american history, particularly when it comes to the role of the secret service. >> it is crazy. it's unbelievable.

the secret service, for its part, continues to deny that the messages were deleted intentionally. >> whatever. >> in a tweet on friday, a spokesman wrote the secret service has been and will continue to be fully cooperative with investigations into the events of january 6th. and i don't argue they're not being cooperative. i just am curious who would ask for a reset at this time. who would ask for phones to be deleted at this time? >> come on. >> where did that order come? it doesn't happen randomly, does it? you don't back everything up before you delete everything? >> jonathan, that'd be like people at pearl harbor navy base shredding all documents on december the 8th or a couple weeks later. it's insanity. doesn't make any sense at all, and they know it. >> yeah. i mean, the two congress members we heard, crazy was used repeatedly in the video clips. it defies believability, that

this would have. the secret service would conduct a -- some sort of phone transfer then that resulted in a loss of data and defies believability they wouldn't have that information backed up. these were significant dates, shall we say, in the history of the secret service, and, certainly, they had to have known in that moment they would be of future use to investigations, congressional or otherwise. we know, there's been a lot of reporting about this, there are pro-trump, sympathetic figures in the secret service, an agency that does a hard job and does it well, but it needs to be made clear. investigators in the panel feel the texts will tell two important things. first, the actions of former president trump in the days up to and, in particular, on january 6th, including his effort to try to get to the capitol after the rally on the ellipse. as well as what he did afterwards, because there, of course, will be secret service with him at all times in the white house. also, the vice president. let's remember, he has his own secret service capitol.

his life threatened by the pro-trump mob. he had an altercation with secret service agents who wanted to evacuate him from the capitol. he said no. the text messages about that moment also of great interest to the committee. >> all right. let's bring in congressional reporter for the "guardian," hugo lowell. what more can you tell us about the deleted text messages as we lead up to thursday? it sounds like they're pretty convinced they will get them on tuesday. the select committee, will they get all of them? who is -- what's the hangup here? >> yeah, i mean, i just want to start on the timeline since we're talking about this. >> mm-hmm. >> the secret service makes a big deal about how, you know, the inspector general only requests these communications mid to late february. i think he said february 26th or 24th, something along those lines. but the select committee has kind of realized in recent days that, actually, the first request for communications came from congress. it came january 16th, ten days after the attack.

so i think committee members on friday were scratching their heads, thinking, is it really the case that the secret service managed to erase a bunch of messages from two of the most key dates, as jonathan says, in the space of ten days? it's just remarkable. i think kind of coming off that, when they met with the dhs inspector general, the inspector general told them that the secret service's explanation for why these text messages disappeared kept changing. first, it was a software upgrade issue. when that got questioned and there were new questions about that, they switched to, actually, it was a device replacement program. we were swatchswapping out devi the ten days. the committee is skeptical of everything that has been happening, but they do expect to get some of the communications tuesday. they sent the subpoena late friday night. they subpoenaed both the text messages as well as the action reports. that's interesting.

because the dhs inspector general told the committee that he didn't believe the secret service did an after-action report. part of the reason is they said, oh, you're doing your investigation, so we'll cooperate with your investigation. but when push came to shove, they stonewalled the inquiry by slow-walking the production of documents. >> that is just incredible. "the guardian's" hugo lowell, thank you very much. we'll be following this as we lead up to the big hearing in primetime thursday night. we don't know if it'll be the last hearing, but at this point, it is considered to be the final hearing by the select committee. still ahead on "morning joe," the fist bump seen around the world. we'll have more about this controversial moment from president biden's trip to the middle east and his meeting with other leaders. and we mentioned that republicans are pushing for more abortion bans without exceptions for rape or incest. it comes as the restrictive laws already on the books in some states are creating a lot of

confusion for doctors. plus, texas senator ted cruz says the supreme court was wrong in another landmark case. we'll tell you which ruling he now wants the high court to re-examine. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. >> for people of any age. and it can cause violent uncontrollable coughing fits. ask your doctor or pharmacist about whooping cough vaccination because it's not just for kids. joe. we'll be right back.

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because when you invest in yourself, everyone gets the best of you. because when you invest in yourself, before discovering nexium 24hr to treat her frequent heartburn... claire could only imagine enjoying chocolate cake. now, she can have her cake and eat it too. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts for all-day, all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? it's unreal to look at the names on this trophy and add mine is unreal. it's really -- i'm lost for words. >> perhaps you can tell us how you're going to celebrate tonight with the claret jug. >> i'm definitely going to find out how many beers fit in this thing. that's for sure. >> cameron smith after winning the 150th open championship yesterday. let's bring in our golf correspondent. >> he is golf correspondent. >> president of the council on foreign relations. richard haass. i watched a little bit of that, if you can believe it. >> yeah.

>> i did. i like -- >> she really did. >> i am supportive of the multi. >> what can you tell us of the man who sports the hair style you wore through the late '70s and early 1980s, the haass mullet. >> what this australian did was amazing. 30 on the back nine. tied the best ever for a major. if i'm not mistaken, he took 12 putts only on the back nine. that is hard to imagine. >> unbelievable. >> the guy who came in second, cameron young, he did enough to win. 19 under. 65 on the final round. yet, he lost. this was as good a performance under pressure on the final day as i've seen in golf. rory mcilroy came in third. he was the hometown favorite. yesterday, the fact that mika watched tells you all you need to know. that was as good as it gets in

terms of quality of play. >> yeah, it really was. >> compelling. >> it was quite a match. i'm curious what you think, richard, about president biden meeting with the saudi royal family. of course, it created a firepower here at home before the talks even began. this is the moment the critics seized on, when the president did the fist bump with mbs. what are your thoughts about the meeting, about what president biden did? was that something that any american president in his position would need strategical? >> the reason he needed to do it is because candidate biden called saudi arabia a pariah and isolating them. putting saudi arabia, the crown prince, mbs, in the penalty box for a year and a half, and made it impossible to have anything like a normal consultation or conversation with the saudis. so the fist bump was probably

better than a handshake, but it was the price the president had to pay. he had to eat some crow. that said, we have relationships with bad guys all over the world when u.s. interests are at stake. with china, russia, north korea, what have you. we have to deal with the saudis not simply over oil, but i would say, more importantly, over iran. that's coming to a crunch, and it is important that saudi arabia and the united states be on the same page, both in terms of vis-a-vis iran, but we don't want saudi arabia feeling so adrift from the united states that the idea that they would need their own nuclear arsenal, that that somehow becomes a real option for them. again, i understand the critics, but i think the critics are wrong here. this has grown up foreign policy. you have to deal with objectionable people sometimes. we'll see what comes. you know, this measure deliverables, i think, is not right. you have to look at this as an investment. the real question is over the next year or two, do the united

states and saudi arabia cooperate for iran, yemen? maybe you get a little more oil out. less focus on today and more over the next couple years. think of it as an investment in what is an important relationship. >> richard, a lot of people rightly offended by what mbs did, rightly horrified by the fact that he killed a virginia resident, a "washington post" editorial writer. what do you say to them? obviously, we deal with erdogan in turkey because we have to deal with erdogan in turkey. when it suits our interests, we deal with china, enslaving 2 million of their own people. and will continue dealing with china because we have no other choice but to deal with china. i mean, after 9/11, the iranians

were of help as far as intel goes. explain. you know, it's ugly out there. explain why you believe and the realists believe this is what joe biden and any president had to do. >> hitler -- remember churchill saying he'd deal with the devil if that's what it took to defeat hitler. fdr dealt with stalin. you don't have the choice to be pure here. we have to deal with the saudis. doesn't mean we give them a pass. doesn't mean we don't raise our concerns. but you've got to put it in a larger context. unfortunately, we can't bring mr. khashoggi back to life. what we can do is press the saudis on what they do in the future. we've got to simply work with them with all their flaws, just like we now have to work with china. as you pointed out, joe, they've got millions of uighurs in

camps, but we still need to deal with china, say, on climate change or economic issues, strategic issues, or north korea. that's what foreign policy is about. it's the lesson of history, and we can't avoid it now. >> and the messaging, adrienne elrod, i would think the white house needs to focus on climate change and gas prices and how to tie it to the economy. i think the hardest thing is to explain this trip to americans who are dealing with everyday issues and thinking, what is he doing? i mean, the fist bump is one thing. i don't know. you can read it a bunch of different ways. some people do that rather than shaking hands. i think that's kind of an overblown issue. i'd like to know about what came out of the meeting. that, i think, is the challenge for the president and the white house, is explaining this to the american people in a way that makes sense and that means something to them. >> yeah, that's right, mika. i think it is really challenging

for any president to explain why a really important relationship with a somewhat adversarial government is important to our economic interests back home. president biden has sort of laid out the fact that he is doing everything in his power, as the executive branch, to try to lower gas prices because congress isn't acting. the build back better agenda is winding into a small, thin reconciliation bill, which is probably not going to have an impact on gas prices, which is what we hoped would happen when the broader package was introduced. that's a challenge any president has to face. i think his job now that he is back home in the united states is to further explain the trip, talk about the outcomes of the trip, of those conversations, and make it very clear that the united states, unfortunately, because we're not doing what we need to do at home, we have to continue to rely on some of these international oil supplies. we do have the domestic

resources here at home, but we're not fully utilizing them. again, congress has not acted appropriately. so, you know, presents some challenges for sure, but i'm confident president biden this week will spend time talking about this trip, lay out what happened, and talk about how, hopefully, some of the discussions will positively impact american families. >> president biden upon returning to the white house late saturday, well after midnight, not having it with reporters' questions about the fist bump. white house aides, richard, say too much is being made of that. but there was one other angle the white house wanted to play in the middle east. that is also to try to make sure saudi arabia doesn't end up in a closer to china and russia. tell us why that is so important, particularly at this moment when the world facing rising fuel costs and fears that russia could be cutting off gas further to europe, which would send things that much higher throughout the globe. >> exactly. two reasons. one is oil, as you say. russia's interests is often restricting oil supplies. they want the price to go up.

we don't want the saudi arabia and opec plus relationship getting closer to russia. strategically, china and russia are our two biggest competitors for what he is doing in the world. the idea you have a security in the world for china and russian interests is not what we want. we also don't want them getting all their arms from these countries. we want to have some influence there about what we do about iran, what happens with israel, what happens in yemen and other parts of the middle east. i think this also shows, jonathan, that the desire of the united states, to get out of the middle east, that might be our wish but it's not going to be the reality. it is like "godfather ii," we're brought back to the middle east. saudi arabia is one of the principal countries in that part of the world. if we want them to collaborate and normalize with israel and work against iran, that's the conversations we have to be

involved in. it's not pretty. i understand what the critics are saying, but this is reality given what iran is up to, the energy situation, peace between israel and the palestinians. saudi arabia might hold the key there. there is no other country, that if it normalized with israel, could get something with the palestinians. the measure of this trip is not today. >> right. >> the measure of this trip is in two, three, four years to come. that's what people should be thinking about. look back on it. >> richard haass, thank you very much for your insight this morning. coming up on "morning joe," jury selection in the contempt of congress trial for former trump adviser steve bannon starts today. bannon had vowed to go, quote, medi-evil against those who brought the charges against him. the presiding judge over the trial has other thoughts. we'll explain in a moment. the saudi foreign minister said he didn't hear you accuse the crown prince of khashoggi's murder. is he telling the truth? >> no.

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unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. 46 past the hour. joe, democrats are extremely i couldn't even set with senator joe manchin. >> you're reading an old script. >> no, they're really upset this time. >> that's an old script. >> they're super upset this time. >> this time, they're really mad. >> he's effectively torpedos their hopes of acting on climate change. it comes after manchin told democratic leadership he is not willing to back major climate and tax provisions in president biden's agenda, forcing democrats to make a choice. pass the provisions he wants or drop the package all together. come on. senator bernie sanders was especially upset over the weekend, suggesting manchin never negotiated in good faith in the first place. >>. >> people like manchin, sinema,

sinema to a lesser degree, who are intentionally sabotaging the president's agenda, what the american people want, what the majority of us in the democratic caucus want. nothing new about this. the problem was we were talking to manchin like he was serious. he is a major recipient of fossil fuel money. he received campaign contributions from 25 republican billionaires. >> despite the recent record-breaking heat waves across the globe, climate change remains an issue with little political power. a recent "new york times"/siena college poll found just 1% of voters named climate change as the most important issue facing the country. the "times" reports, even among voters under 30, the group thought to be the most energized by the issue, that figure was 3%. this as president biden's $3 trillion climate plan appears to be dead, killed off by senator

manchin, who worried how the deal would effect inflation. this comes weeks after the supreme court limited the epa's ability to regulate climate-warming carbon dioxide from electric power plants. meanwhile, record-breaking heat waves sweep the globe. temperatures hitting 104 and 110 were common from spain to germany. while britain was forced to declare a national security and issue its first ever red warning for extreme heat. yes, it exists. portugal saw temperatures reaching 117 degrees. >> wow. >> as wildfires raged across the country. while the heat wave impacting spain killed at least 360 people so far. joe, i mean, it does seem like, i would think in joe manchin's state, the percentage of people who don't support it would go

lower, but i'm surprised at least poll numbers. >> yeah. i mean, it's been this way for a very long time. it doesn't really make a lot of sense. i guess people only worry about what's right in front of them. >> yeah. >> but the numbers have been much lower on climate change than you would expect. but on the joe manchin front, i mean, i've said this for some time, joe biden needs to sit down with joe manchin and say, "joe, what do you want? stop talking about crawfish and west virginia or whatever." you don't eat crawfish. >> mr. no-no. >> just stop. make him sit down and say, "joe, write the bill. stop telling us what you're for and then moving the goalpost. we need 50 votes. tell us what you're for." like, we should have come to the end of the road on this six months ago. for some reason, joe manchin

says, "oh, i'm going to sit town and talk to y'all and we're going to figure this." no, i remember joe manchin supporting universal prek. if it was universal prek, i'd support it. oh, sit down with the president. they need to talk through it. but just enough talking to other democrats. enough trying to hammer things out. because, at the end, joe manchin is just going to tell you what he's against. he'll say he is for something, and you'll say, we'll take that bill, and then he'll be against that, as well. adrienne, this is just not difficult. i don't think it is difficult. i moan, i understand progressives that want to spend what i consider to be way too much money, especially during inflationary times, are going to be mad at joe manchin. other democrats will be mad. that's just irrelevant. the only thing that matters is, do you have 50 votes? i just wonder if joe biden will

invite joe manchin to the white house and say, "joe, write your bill right there. write it and put it down right there. what's your best offer?" if they can't sell it, they can't sell it and they move on. seriously, i swear to god, how does this charade continue? how have democrats allowed this charade to go on for almost two years now? >> yeah. i mean, joe, it is really frustraing for democrats and a lot of us on the sidelines to watch this process play out. the senate is looking pretty good in the hands of democrats right now. we may even pick up a seat. but it is too early to tell. what we know now is between now and november, we do have enough votes to get some things done. we've got to utilize that time effectively. we don't have a lot of time left to be, you know, sort of saying if this tactic works with manchin and if this tactic works, we have to make something happen. let's also remember the white house stayed out of these conversations because chuck schumer and joe manchin said, we're going to work this out

between the two of us or with a small band of democrats and the white house, we'll let you know when it is time to come in. when the white house should have come in earlier. i think the president was rightfully standing back because that is what he was told. the bottom line is, joe manchin, we don't know if he is acting in good faith with the decisions. we made et clear months ago he'd be open to the provisions he just now rejected. what we do know now is he may be able to, you know, support a prescription drug plan to lower the cost of prescription drugs. there may be a few other smaller things we can get through reconciliation, but we don't have a lot of time left for sure. we've got to get this done quickly. looks like schumer is putting a bill on the floor in the next few weeks. may go into august recess. we do need to get something done because the american people, american families are at stake. we don't have much time left. we can definitely ensure that democrats will have control of the senate.

>> you know, jonathan lemire, joe manchin said he was for reversing the trump tax cuts. i guess he's not for that now. i guess he's against that now. but, again, it just goes back to tell us what you're for, joe. instead of talking to chuck schumer and everybody else, have him write his bill. again, this just keeps going on. it's put up or shut up. what will you support? you love going around saying no. you love talking about how everybody has everything wrong and nobody understands how to do it. what are you going to do? write it on a piece of paper. say, this is what i'm going to do, then have his staff, not another staff, have his staff draft the legislation. then schumer can get it passed in the senate. we can see if nancy pelosi can pass it in the house. if she can't, she can't. if the squad says no, the squad says no. if progressives say no, progressives say no. but what democrats have been

doing over the past year and a half is just madness. don't allow somebody to go into what we used to call in college basketball the four corners. that's been repeating itself over and over and over again. calling, saying, write your bill. we'll get the president to sign it after we pass it through the house and the senate if we can. >> yeah, biden over the weekend signalled he would support this skinny measure on medicare negotiating drug prices and obamacare subsidies. it's a small bill. despite him signaling he wants this, white house frustration levels with manchin are off the charts according to advisers i speak to, who are so tired of him saying one thing in public, one thing in private. behind the scenes, "yes, i'll do that." in public saying, "no, no, no, i

won't." manchin said we can revisit climate change and provisions later in summer. no one in the white house thinks that'll happen. they've heard this before. also, about the timing, when he has said no. last december when he officially pulled the plug on build back better, how'd he do so in on fox news. this one where he says i'm not for the larger measure, when did he do it, when the president was in saudi arabia, talking to the crown prince. a controversial visit about oil, and here's joe manchin back home killing climate change provisions. so there is a real sense here of just anger at manchin and a sense of regret that biden wasn't more personally involved all along, deferring too much to schumer, when he should have been the one, perhaps, in the room with manchin, having him write the bill. >> wow. adrienne elrod, thanks for being on this morning. we appreciate it. still ahead on "morning joe," the damning investigative report he leased over the weekend that said nearly 400 law enforcement officials responded

to the mass shooting in uvalde, but that, quote, egregiously poor decision making let the shooting continue for more than an hour. >> just -- it's just beyond comprehension. >> also the trauma going on there. >> what those police officers did not do, beyond c comprehension. >> we'll go live to texas in a moment. "morning joe" will be back. moment all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? if maga republicans get their way, abortion will be banned nationwide, "morning joe" will be backement. elections will be decided by politicians, with no regard for your vote. if maga republicans get back in power, your rights, benefits and freedoms will be in danger.

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welcome back to "morning joe." if you're in new york city, a storm is coming. look at the clouds as the sun comes up over the big apple. it's the top of the hour on this monday, july 18th. jonathan lemire is still with us. joining the table this hour, host and executive producer of the "circus" on showtime, national affairs analyst john heilemann. host of "politics nation" and

president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton joins us, as well. good to have you both with us. we're going to start with what's sounding more likely that an announcement from former president trump for a 2024 election bid is more of a when, not an if. but it's not having -- it is not about avenging a loss or being angry about the last election. four people with knowledge of the situation tell "rolling stone" that mounting legal issues are a motivating factor for trump's desire to retake the white house. one of the sources who discussed the issue with the former president over the summer told the magazine, quote, he says when, not if, he is president again, a new republican administration will put a stop to the justice department investigation that he views as the biden administration working to hit him with criminal charges or even put him and his people in prison.

according to the justice department's office of legal council, a sitting president cannot be charged with a federal crime. the same is not true for prosecution at a state level. however, any attempt to put trump on trial would likely make its way to the supreme court. >> john heilemann, this is nothing new. when you talk to people close to trump, about whether he'll run for re-election after the drugging in 2018, said of course he'll run for re-election. that's his ticket. he has too much hanging over him liability wise. but there also is, if we just move this reporting to the side and look at the rest of it, he's really showing signs of weakness out there, whether you're talking about fundraising, whether you look at his candidates, the problems they're having, not only in republican primaries but the ones that even do win, the financing problems

they're having. you know, i saw a clip on fox last night that was in my twitter feed, and it seems pretty obvious that fox news has left the trump train. they are jumping on the desantis express. he sees all of this happening while he is sitting in mar-a-lago. doesn't seem like he is going to be able to sit back much longer, is it? >> i don't think so, joe. i thought that the reporting last week, the piece in "new york" magazine and everything else i've been reading -- that piece i cite because trump was so obvious in terms of what he was thinking. not just laying out either before or after the midterm elections, but thinking more so before. huge problem for the republican party. the mitch mcconnells of the world maybe are starting to make peace with the notion they'll

have to deal with trump running. but the notion of trump as an active candidate heading into the midterms complicates their picture so much. i think that's right. look, you know, if he runs, which looks like he is going to, he's the front runner. but is he in a weakened state right now? is he in a weaker place than he was? i would say probably a weaker place than he's been in the republican party in -- since, you know, march of 2016 or so. six years where trump has been in a stronger position where he is now. he is in a weaker position than any time at that point, but i still think he is the front runner to be the republican nominee. >> reverend al, of course democrats would love to see donald trump jump back in, running for president. being, in effect, on the ballot in 2022, in a year that, well, they're expected to take a drubbing. >> i think democrats are clearly hoping he runs and announces before the midterms because it

then can change a lot of how they campaign. they can run against trump in a lot of these state primaries. especially when we get the feeling that he, being trump, is not running as much for the white house as a way of staying out of the big house. but i think that in the other side of it, it may reshuffle how the democrats think of '24. because if you have a trump and a desantis and even a youngkin primary on the republican side, what does that do on the democratic side? biden's rational has been, i'm the only one that can beat trump. but if you have these guys that may challenge trump, then it likely will be challenges on the biden side, at least democratic voters saying, "wait a minute. suppose we have to go against a younger baby version of trump, and who can beat that?" it may come to people that we

are not really looking at, but has the star power as well as the kind of newness in terms of national imagery that can bring the party somewhere. so it's going to reshuffle the deck if trump and desantis runs and a youngkin comes in. >> yeah. well, jury selection begins today for steve bannon's contempt of congress trial. the former trump adviser has refused for months to cooperate with the subpoena from the january 6th committee. in a hearing last week, the judge ruled against several defenses from bannon's legal team. it led to his lawyer asking the judge, "what's the point to going to trial if there are no defenses?" the judge agreed and suggested bannon's team consider that. in a recent podcast, bannon was defiant about his potential legal troubles, saying, quote, pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these

people. we're going to savage our enemies. >> oh, my god. >> he went on to say, quote, who needs prayers? certainly not steven k. bannon. >> medieval. >> bannon facing long odds of acquittal. the two contempt counts he is facing carry anywhere from 30 days to a year in prison. >> let's bring in msnbc legal contributor, charles coleman. charles, perhaps the headline of the weekend is, "bannon says he is going medieval during his trial." the judge says, "meh." >> joe, i can't think of any reason or any manner or pathway steve bannon has to an acquittal here. one of the reasons i say that is the judge in the case, judge nichols, district judge in d.c., made it so clear. any of the defenses bannon would try to advance would not be applied in front of the jury.

one a last-ditch effort he made was he agreed he was going to sit before the january 6th committee and testify, which is ultimately what he's been held in contempt about in the first place. the problem is, you can't do that now and then think that's going to somehow relieve you of what your obligations were during the investigative phase. that's the issue he is facing. he can't get around it, the biggest element the government has to prove is intent, which is something they can do very straightforwardly. so he doesn't really have a path to a win here. i'm not sure how medieval or where medieval he intends to go. >> what does that mean? >> he's going nowhere fast. >> john heilemann, what are your thoughts about bannon? you and i have actually both known him from a distance. since the days of the 1990s. he's become a figure that has, of course, fired by trump. i guess he was fired by trump.

he certainly was out of trump's graces. he reemerges and, actually, i think he gives some of the most damning, some of the most damning evidence against trump, that january 6th was planned. he's telling everybody on his podcast on january 5th exactly what's going to happen the next day. so where does bannon fit in in all of this stuff? >> well, first of all, joe, he's obviously been watching, you know, "pulp fiction" on a loop too often. the medieval thing is straight out of the movies. i also -- you also always worry about anybody -- it is bad when you talk about yourself in the third person. it is particularly bad when you talk about yourself in the third person and citing your middle initial. that's always a sign of a particular kind of grandiosity that is out of control. but, look, he is -- you know, i've interviewed the guy. you and i, you say, have known

him in some way for a long time. i interviewed him on "the circus" on the night of the first presidential debate in 2020. it was clear he had been spending time thinking through exactly the scenario that played out. there is this leaked audio where he said thing i thins similar t we were talking about them. what would trump do if biden won the election, how trump would claim the election was stolen and he'd take it into legal fights and political fights, what bannon called the counting rooms. his confidence and the way he and rudy were thinking about things was the political power of the republican party in the states, that they control the courts, they control the state legislatures, that would ultimately mean that trump would end up being able to win the -- take the white house, though he had lost on election day. and, you know, it is chilling to go back and watch some of the tape. he made it clear, and you're now

seeing a lot of that kind of come out. i think, you know, he would be -- he's -- i'm not sure how much new he has to tell the 1/6 committee, but if they could get him in front of them, in the proper circumstances, not under the circumstances that bannon is trying to lay out where he is in control, i think he has a lot to say contextually and probably some details that would be really valuable for the public and committee to hear. >> for sure. now, the january 6th committee investigating the capitol attack will hold its next hearing this thursday in primetime. it is hoping to have maybe more evidence by then, even by thursday, after subpoenaing the secret service for allegedly deleted text messages. the committee issued the subpoena on friday following a briefing by the department of homeland security's inspector general. earlier last week, the ig revealed that after requesting pertinent records from the

secret service for a probe into the insurrection, the agency said texts from january 5th and 6th had been accidentally erased when the phones were reset, as part of a device replacement program. yesterday, committee members expressed optimism that the messages could and would be recovered. >> we need 'em. we expect to get them by this tuesday. i was shocked to hear that they didn't back up their data before they reset their iphones. that's crazy. i don't know why that would be. >> i think we're going to know more tuesday. it is quite crazy that the secret service would actually end up deleting anything related to one of the more infamous days in american history, particularly when it comes to the role of the secret service. >> the secret service, for its part, continues to deny that the messages were deleted intentionally. charles coleman, just how fathomable is that right there?

messages from only the 5th and the 6th. certainly, the retrieval, i'm concerned when i hear the hearing saying -- the committee members saying they expect to get some back but not all. >> well, this should be a great concern for a number of different reasons. one of which is, number one, there's so many protocols or should be protocols, and they actually do have them around storing data of this level of a sensitive nature. >> right. >> they weren't adhered to in this instance. even though it hasn't come up as of yet, there still has to be some conversation around accountability in terms of who was responsible for adhering to these protocols, which were obviously violated around sensitive information. the other thing, why i find this to be very, very troubling in terms of a plausibility standpoint, is there was a nexus around information as to what was going on in washington around january 5th and january 6th and leading up to that date. there were reports.

there was information about who was armed, where they were, what was being planned across various platforms. the secret service not only had information, they had access to other information that most people would not have. so given the level of sensitivity attached to what we're talking about with january 6th, i find it extremely troubling that on that day, they would not have made special note to make sure the data they had, the information they had access to was not protected and backed up. >> so, charles, curious"rolling president trump potentially running to basically shield himself from prosecution. i'm thinking of the justice department and any kind of investigation into criminal behavior on the part of the former president, when one is investigating a suspect and they may, for example, flee the country or do something to avoid prosecution, does that play into how they conduct their investigation, how fast they

move? >> i think that it might. i think that as you continue to see what trump is going to do with respect to his announcement, it is going to put pressure on the doj, especially from the outside, around making sure they're able to do whatever it is they intend to do around charging him and potentially prosecuting him, given any referrals from the doj -- i'm sorry, from congress that may come. at the same time, it is important to understand, where you may see a faster move is with willis in georgia and the d.a.'s office there, and you may see tish james here in new york move more aggressively. those investigations run on a different track, on the state level opposed to the federal level. i think that's something that's important to watch, as you sort of see this move from trump out of desperation as he attempts to, as rev said, move from the white house and a -- move to the white house and avoid the big house. >> yeah. all right, msnbc legal analyst charles coleman, thank you very much. we have new fundraising numbers to show you.

what they indicate is there's major momentum for democrats in some key senate races ahead of november's midterm elections. from april to june, democratic candidates in high-profile contests around the country blew away their leading republican challengers. in arizona, blake masters brought in over $800,000 last quarter, compared to more than $13 million for incumbent democrat kelly. in pennsylvania, despite being absent from the campaign trail due to a stroke, democrat john fetterman raised nearly five times the amount of celebrity doctor mehmet oz in the spring. and in georgia, although republican herschel walker raked in an impressive $6.2 million, that paled in comparison to the $17 million raised by democrat raphael warnock. joe, is this surprising? if so, why?

>> it is surprising because 2022 should be a massive republican year. it still may be. they have the environment going for them. fundraising numbers are always the leading indicator of how the political environment is going out there. you look at the candidates. first of all, we look at the candidates that lost that donald trump supporters. worse news for the republican party are the ones who have won. you look in pennsylvania. you have dr. oz. >> i don't understand that one. >> he lives in jersey. you look at jd vance, "i love san francisco. i love silicon valley." he's like butter, "i love venture capitalists." wait, i'm running in ohio, "i hate them." then go to georgia, and you have herschel walker. my god, will be to him talk more than three minutes, he makes donald trump on donald trump's worst day sound like daniel

webster. they put up -- you know, at the end of the day, pat buchanan always talked about political athletes. at the end of the day, it matters how good the people that are running for office are. a lot of times, it has to do with their political athleticism more than it does even with their ideology. i mean, you look at pennsylvania. look at fetterman, a progressive. he could win a state that's grown more culturally conservative. you look at ohio. i mean, look at sherrod brown. the state gets redder by the day. sherrod brown, progressive's progressive, keeps winning. progressives can win this moderate areas and vice versa. you look, john heilemann, at the extreme positions that the republicans are taking. so extreme that they're outside the mainstream of even the republican party. we can always talk about the 90% that support universal background checks. 73% that did not want roe v.

wade overturned. i mean, look at the numbers. my god, on issues like 10-year-old girls who got raped having to cross state lines, and republicans are still attacking her and people around her after saying the story was a lie. you look at texas republicans who are now trying to stop a protection to protect mothers from dying on an operating table. you look at mississippi's attorney general who, a month or two ago, was saying 12-year-old girls, they got raped, should be forced by the centralized state to carry their rapist's baby full term. you look at ar-15s getting into the hands of -- i could go on and on. then all these crack pots winning republican primaries, they're all supporting conspiracy theories dreamed up by chinese religious cults and their websites. it's beyond bizarre. but this is the state of the republican party 2022.

so with all of that before us, are you surprised by these low fundraising numbers? >> first of all, i'm most surprised by how excellent your jd vance imitation was, joe. could you do it again? i heard jd vance talk, but i never heard him sound like that. >> no. >> i love san francisco. >> joe. >> i hate san francisco. oh, i love silicon valley. smartest people come from silicon valley. oh, i hate silicon valley. oh, i love venture -- yeah, it is preposterous. >> how critical he is. >> how do you go from loving san francisco and siicon valley, saying this is where the best and brightest come, to hating it the second you're running in ohio? come on, butters. >> well, look, it's the same guy who was brutally critical of donald trump in braced donald t.

he reinvented himself in the maga mold and has no obvious spine, convictions, or consistency. part of what happened here is on the fundraising side, joe, is some of the places like pennsylvania, for instance, there was a competitive senate primary happening in pennsylvania at the beginning of the quarter. it wasn't clear who the republican nominee was going to be until a month of the quarter got blown there. i don't want to write-off the larger reality, though. the numbers, those fundraising numbers, i'm sure, will get more competitive. the republicans now are locked in on who their nominees are. some of the candidates will raise more money. but the larger picture you pointed out is exactly right. you know, democrats have been praying for something. they haven't been praying for these outcomes but praying for something that would allow them to take their argument away from this forbidding national

environment, high inflation, high and wrong track numbers, all the things that are plaguing them and plague often the in-power party in a midterm election. what's conspired here to happen for them is because of the decision in roe v. wade, because of overturning roe v. wade and what republicans have done with that, don't leave out the 1/6 committee, which has elevated the insurrection, elevated donald trump, reminded people day after day throughout the month of june about how central -- and july, how central donald trump is to the republican party. the republican party is still donald trump's party. those are all circumstances that are conspiring to allow democrats to do -- to start to do what they hoped to do all the way through november, which is to try to say, no, this is not a race about inflation. this is not a race about joe biden. this is a race about republican

extremism. here's the full spectrum of it, and it just happens to be that my opponent, whether it is jd vance or mehmet oz or you name it on a house race, this person represents republican extremism. i think you're starting to see that show up both in polling, but certainly in the fundraising numbers. a lot of democrats are saying, man, the senate, we must maintain control of the united states senate if there is a chance we'll lose the house. you're seeing people like mark kelly and john fetterman and tim ryan get the benefit of that thinking among democrats all over the country and in those states. >> rev, you know, we have been talking, you and i have been talking about democratic extremism and how it hurt the party in some races in 2020 but mainly after 2020, if you look at virginia. you've been trying to -- i won't say preach -- but to advise democrats that were listening

not to be too woke. don't de-fund the police. actually, many people of color want more police officers in their communities. the polls show it. at the same time, they want police reform. socialism, that really worked in miami-dade county. in 2020, the fears of socialism with hispanic voters, with a lot of black voters, with people of color. and so we had the democrats, look at the virginia race and crt, on the defensive on these wedge issues. here we are a year later, and it's republicans who -- i mean, this has turned so quickly. it's republicans who are rightly seen as extremists, who are against the 90% of americans who want universal background checks. against the 70% of americans who wanted roe v. wade kept in place. against the 70% of americans

that believe young girls that are rapes, victims of incest, shouldn't be forced by the centralized state to carry the forced birth full term, their rapist's baby full term. you can go on and on and on, and it just seems that republicans are working really hard right now to snatch -- would it be snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory? >> and we must be very clear that that is exactly what republicans are doing. and where you have a lot of anger at a joe manchin or the right, in terms of democratic party politics, you cannot be tripped up by extremists and purists on the left that are saying and doing things that could be used for the benefit of republicans and, in some cases, i believe, republicans have actually put them in the ranks so they can use them. when you look at the fundraiing

advantage of democrats and you must also match that with their ability to get the vote out, hit where people really live. people live on the ground. you have val demings running in florida who has to do ads about, i'm not against police. i was a prosecutor. i'm not for de-fund the police. i am for making policing work. many of us that have been in the police reform movement are about that. you can't be tripped up to where people who are afraid of inflation, afraid of crime, feel like, oh, i can't go with that because they want to take away all police rather than correct police. i think you cannot beat yourself. the democrats look like they are on the precipice of turning around what happens historically in midterms. the only thing that can beat them is them. manchin on the right and some people who claim they're woke who are really daydreaming on the left. being woke doesn't mean you don't daydream.

you're woke to daydream. you've got to be awakened to win elections. >> well said, rev. i don't try to outdo that. it's a split outcome here. there are few democrats who think they have a chance of keeping the house, barring something unforeseen between thousand and november. but they are more optimistic about the senate, per strategists and aides i've talked to. ohio, pennsylvania, georgia, maybe arizona, all states republicans may end up nominating very, very flawed candidates. if they'd come up with a different candidate, maybe we'd take advantage of a good environment and win. now, they will be tight races, and democrats are growing more optimistic. fundraising numbers play into it. it'll be, more than anything, what issues this campaign and this election is eventually contested. if it is about inflation, if it's about rising crime, that's not great for democrats. if it is about january 6th and the insurrection, about trump returning to the stage, particularly were he to declare

his candidacy before now and november, if it is the out of step position the republican party has on abortion and guns, democrats have a shot to keep the senate and, therefore, keep the biden administration's ability to confirm potential supreme court justices and judges going forward, and having a right-wing republican party to foil. it depends on which issues the election will be on. >> it is fascinating. of course, we always hear, john heilemann, the famous 1992 edict from james carvale. it is the economy, stupid. but people like me got elected running against bill clinton or a lot of hot button issues. got elected in a very strong economy. off-year elections aren't always

about the economy. sometimes it's about the general direction of the country. if people are comfortable with the direction the country is going in. >> yeah. i mean, that's right, joe. i think, you know, i don't think there are many -- i think the reality of trying to turn an election around the way the 1984 republicans did by nationalizing it, saying, okay, the economy is great, let's focus on something else. bill clinton was controversial in a variety of ways, as you recall, on the cultural issues, and the republicans did a thing that democrats are going to try to do in a different way in 2022. it's easier to do that -- it's easier to be able to do that, in some ways, against the backdrop of a good economy, you can focus on culture. if you are a democratic party or republican party trying to make the election about something else when pocketbook issues have turned against you, that's harder. i think if it hadn't been for this kind of weird alignment of,

as jonathan said, three giant issues, abortion, crime, and trump, and it's not just is 1/6 committee. this brings us back full circle to when we started at 7:00. trump announcing he is running, why is it important to democrats for the midterms? it is sort of the third leg of the extremist stool. what democrats are trying to do is nationalize the election and say, this isn't about my race in pennsylvania or ohio or arizona or any congressional district around the country. it's about a republican party that's gone off the deep end. and being able to cite that kind of unholy trinity, you know, this is now -- donald trump is back. it's always been trump's party the last six years, but now he is putting himself in front of it again. and you have what happened with the court in roe and what republican state legislatures and governors are doing all over the country. and you have the horror of guns and the unwillingness of republicans to move on the gun

issue. that, i think, democrats believe, certainly in the senate, but even to some extent in terms of potentially limiting losses in the house, it is maybe the only kind of way that, with that collection of issues, nationalizing the election in that way, it might be the one thing that could save them in, again, an otherwise totally forbidding environment, where, you know, i'm having to run against the inflation numbers and on other quality of life things, would be very tough in ordinary circumstances. republicans are really giving democrats a gift here. donald trump the biggest one of all maybe. >> we'll see. don't want to underestimate him because sometimes when people celebrate trump's existence, they end up paying for that. still ahead on "morning joe," nearly 60 years ago, republican governor of new york, nelson rockefeller, warned of the radical right within his own party. historian jon meacham will be here on who, if anyone, in the modern republican party could do

the same thing today. plus, what do pete butte buttigieg, andrew cuomo, and barack obama have in common? we have a behind the scenes story with some of the biggest names in the democratic party. liz joins us next. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. with skyrizi, there's nothing like the feeling of improving my skin and joints... ...and that means everything. now's the time to talk to your doctor about how skyrizi can help treat your psoriatic arthritis- so you can get going. learn how abbvie can help you save. 36 past the hour. the sun comes up over washington on capitol hill. on july 14th, 1963, the republican governor of new york, nelson rockefeller, took on what he called the radical right of his own party. he said, in part, quote, the

paralysis of government that we are witnessing today in washington stems from the fact that the democratic party is not united for principle but, in effect, is two parties of pop opportunism in proceeding in different directions. it was my conviction the activities of the radical right, while deeply disturbing in many ways, would represent an inconsequential influence on the republican party. it was my conviction that despite differences and emphasis among the party's responsible elements, there was an overwhelming consensus within the party on the fundamental articles of republican faith. >> but, of course, there was not. that speech is the latest historical moment featured by jon meacham in his incredible award-winning podcast, "reflections of history." jon meacham joins us now. jon, there's another line where

rockefeller says, and i'm quoting here, the real danger of subversion -- there is a real danger of subversion by a radical, well-financed and highly disciplined minority. that sounds a bit familiar, does it not? >> yeah. rockefeller was talking about the goldwater element within the party. he was talking about, as he put it in a wonderful phrase, that the republican party was in its honest inviction, about meeting human needs in a changing world. which was very much a 20th cen century, post new deal view. that our human experience, the american experience had taught us that the state has a role to play. it shouldn't perhaps be the predominant one, but you also can't begin every conversation from an extremist position. his fear was that the

conversation that had won the second world war, that had built a cold war apparatus, that had kept an uneasy piece through the '50s, into the '60s, he worried that it was a republican minority that would end that conversation. and, of course, what struck me about this, when i came across it in the "times," was this was a year before -- joe, you know this speech well -- before he was booed. rockefeller was booed at the san francisco convention at the cal palace, in which the goldwaterites had taken over the party. now, i know that there are some republican historians, uppercase "r," who are going to say, but goldwater won the intellectual argument that led to reagan. the country rejected liberalism. kind of, right? i think one of the reasons we

are where we are with the republican party is that eisenhower, nixon, ford, reagan, and both bushes would campaign to the right but fundamentally govern in the center. i think there was a building frustration with that. what rockefeller did was he sort of set out a pattern here. he set an example that liz cheney right now is, in fact, participating. she's the heir of that at the moment. it's a pretty lonely place. >> for now. >> yeah, for now. john heilemann is with us and has a question. >> jon, i'm curious what you think about, you know, that moment that kind of started it. even if you put the caveats on it that you did, about the transformation of the republican party, but that's kind of a key moment here that you're talking about in terms of the beginning

of the evolution and the transformation of the modern republican party. what is it -- as people look forward right now, the republican that's on a lot of people's minds is, where's the republican party headed? not only because of the fact it's become so extreme, but also the nature of the changing coalition of who is in the republican party that's becoming primarily a working class party, but also a much more multi-racial party than it has been over the course of the last 20 or 30 years. you'll see republican support go up with conservative hispanics and asians around the country. what is it about what happened in that moment when the transformation began in the republican party in the mid '60s, what lessons do you draw from that, about what could trigger a similar kind of transformation of the party as we head forward, and in what direction do you imagine that goes? >> i think what rockefeller was doing, of course,argument, righ?

we live in a world which rockefeller lost. but what i found so interesting about this is he saw it, right? he saw the implications of it. we're living, to some extent, with the implications of this. again, there are a couple of different layers in it. i think that if you're going to have a functioning republican party, in the sense of a governing party, not just one, john, you and i talked about this, one that's not just owning the libs, which is really the organizing principle, it's this performative politics that appeals to the basic instincts, to an emotional appeal. if you go down that road, then you don't govern, right? you are playing a perpetual politics of you rage. rockefeller, for all of his man fold probl

manifold issues like all of us, he was a governing conservative, a governing republican. to me, the distinction is in that word. are you a performative republican? are you simply trying to make a cultural appeal that the america you -- speak of the people you're talking about -- that america is falling apart and i, the republican candidate, i am standing on the edge of the cliff trying to keep the forces back. but the other is, can you be a governing force? i think to personalize this, that's the distinction between, say, a trump, a desantis, and a mcconnell. mcconnell is -- >> wow. >> whatever you think of mcconnell, mcconnell governs, right? >> yeah. you know, the thing about donald trump, you're so right. trump, desantis, so many others

that have been influenced by trump, for them, it is all about gestures. so you are right, are you going to be about gesturing to the base to own the libs or governing? rev, the best example of this was donald trump kept talking about the wall, the wall, the wall. republicans kept talk about the wall, the wall, the wall. doing it, as donald trump inherited the lowest border crossing problem in 50 years. less arrests for people crossing the border than it'd been in 50 years. yet, he talked about the wall because it was a gesture. it wasn't about governing. republicans governed and owned washington in 2017, 2018. when they owned it, what'd they say? oh, lindsey graham, oh, a wall doesn't make sense. other republicans, walls, i mean, yeah, no, we're not going to build a wall. so, again, it was just all

gesture. >> you know what amazed me about the quote that jon raised, it brought me back to my childhood. when i was growing up in brooklyn, i was a boy preaching in washington temple church in christ. governor rockefeller used to come to the church. senator jacob javits, who was a republican, used to come to the church. john lindsey in '65, two years after the quote, became major of new york as a republican liberal. so you had a lot in the black community that were still republican. it was barry goldwater, the year after your quote, in '64, with in your heart you know i'm right, who was the forerunner to these performative kind of republicans, that turned a lot of blacks off. the civil rights act of '64 and '65. goldwater became the antithee

antithesis of that and not the model that rockefeller had been. the difference you raise between governing republicans and performative republicans we can date back to them. i lived it real life as a little boy. >> jackie robinson's story is critical. >> that's right. >> a republican. big supporter of richard nixon's in 1960. his reaction to the 1964 republican national convention, and the rev remembers this, he say, now i know what it was like to be a jew in hitler's germany. a sobering, sobering statement. that was jackie robinson. and so, you know, the party has changed almost completely in the mid 1960s. in the same way that the wigs died out and then the republicans rose in the 1850s. the question to go to john's point is, what does -- we're in

a similar moment, right? the wigs couldn't find a coherent answer to slavery. the republicans and the democrats had a different view of racial equality. question now, it seems to me, is that the republicans don't really have a coherent answer to the challenges and forces of globalization. parties change when one of the two parties don't have a compelling answer to a defining issue. and so it's, for the moment, fallen into this natiist and populist lane, an image i hate but i'll use it quickly, that is not a good finisher. churchill once said that. you know, some things are good starters in politics, but they're not good finishers. i think we're in the midst -- we're in the middle of this story. i think what rockefeller example shows, what the cheney example

shows us, is that there needs to be some pretty serious -- and not just serious thinking, but effective thinking, actionable thinking on the american right, or it's not going to be part of the constitutional structure. as we have seen. you know, that's not hyperbole. we're watching, in real time, an investigation into many people, the highest elected officials in the constitutional structure on the republican ticket, who tried to undo the constitution. and so i think we're -- this is an existential crisis in many ways for -- >> for sure. all right. governor nelson rockefeller's 1963 speech denouncing the radical right is the latest episode of the "reflections of history" podcast. jon meacham, thank you very much. john heilemann and reverend al

sharpton, thank you both, as well, for coming on this hour. still ahead this morning, we talk to a political strategist who played a key role in some of the biggest political rises and falls over the last 15 years. liz smith joins us in just a few minutes. plus, major league baseball has hit its unofficial halfway point. the all-star break. the mad dog, chris russo, is here with what to watch out for in the second half of the season. we'll be right back. season and find the answer that was right under their nose. or... his nose. we'll be right back. if maga republicans get their way, abortion will be banned nationwide, with no exceptions. medicare and social security will end in five years, with no replacement. elections will be decided by politicians,

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this should do it, ground ball to the shortstop and i will do it as the yankees win 13-2 and complete a first-half

they could only dream about. spot the new york yankees with their 64th win yesterday to wrap up the first half of the major league baseball season. the yankees along with baseball's 29 other clubs will now send representatives to los angeles for the 92 all-star game tomorrow night, joining us ahead of the midsummer classic festivities a headliner, the mad dog himself chris russo. good to have your back he is also the host of high heat on the mlb network and the cohost of espn first take. i know he really wants to do this interview because he is so proud of how his team was doing bursting with pride. >> there is nothing true about that at all, that is the definition of fake news but let's start with the new york

yankees. they are really good. >> the yankees are tough, and other can't beat houston, keeping an eye on the astros that had the ink is number 17 out of 19, played well against them so far so the yankees have some concern there but they will win 110 games, advance to the divisional round, this year is a little different because it's the top two teams in each league that get a bye everybody else is two out of three. the yankees don't have to worry about that but they do have to consider themselves down the road but the yankees will be the team to beat in october and the red sox will be grappling i hate to tell you this you know this better than me there will be grappling for one of those lost spots. >> chris sale broken finger yesterday a total of five 2-3 all season, i took my son to the game yesterday for his

birthday let's just say he has had a better birthday. the other team in new york the new york mets one of the top storylines. >> to have done a great job, and have a good manager, they have won a lot of gritty games, they won the game saturday against the cubs in extra innings made a great defensive plate to preserve the tie. you can see the team has camaraderie and the mets will be dangerous and with the mets you throw in who will eventually come back into the rotation and if you can put them in a short series where they will pitch four out of five remember the mets like the yankees will avoid the wild card because i have the top two records if they handle atlanta they win the division so as a result they go to the divisional series and you have degrom and scherzer that will be hard to beat. the mets yankees world series

is definitely on the table. >> a wildcard that could change the second half would be soto if he is traded, he rejected a gigantic contract extension, they may be open to dealing him so worker to go and how would that shift the balance of power? >> first he does not want to be in washington. if they offered him $440 million i don't care how much is deferred, if they offer you that kind of money you don't want to be in washington. maybe he wants to go somewhere else so he wants to leave so they will trade him. i would be surprised if they don't and of course look at the teams that have the wherewithal to keep him. first of all you have to trade and give up a lot of pieces so you have to have a good farm system and then he wants to stay. why would a trade and then have him leave so that leaves you the yankees and the mets and the dodgers, and san diego.

i think that's possible and it would upset the card, he hits good pitching and in postseason there is good pitching so he is important. >> final stories going into the final half of the season the dodgers are good as always, also the baltimore orioles, the seattle mariners playing in the wildcard race, the longest drought for postseason in baseball may be on track. >> seattle has done tremendous, they won 14 in a row. 15. seattle were nine games under .500 have not made the playoffs in 20 years now they don't lose, there nine over with good pitching, to have money and urgency. will not win the division because houston is ahead of them but they have to play hard to get into the wildcard but that seattle team to have rodriguez a young player fun to watch.

they are 51-42 and i believe there were 30-39. they have done an incredible job , not catching houston but have a chance to make the playoffs. the blue jays, the orioles, red sox and tampa will beat each other up. seattle will play bad teams so that will help their record. >> i have a feeling which team will end up on the outside looking in. >> we will do this again soon, still ahead on "morning joe", we have new details on the text messages from the january 6th attack that the circuit service deleted or so they thought. the house committee says they expect to have them soon. plus gas prices are dropping but the record inflation report shows americans are still being squeezed. the director of the white house national economic council will be our guest. we will be right back. right ba.

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welcome back, 8:00 on the east coast the top of the third hour of "morning joe" on this monday morning we have a lot to cover including the quote systemic failures and egregious poor decision-making in texas, just part of a new damning report criticizing the law- enforcement response to the deadly school shooting at robb elementary school. and it comes as the city takes action against its chief of police. live to texas ahead. plus the latest on the text messages related to the january 6th attack on the capitol the secret service agents thought they had deleted the select subcommittee says they expect to have them as early as tomorrow. what will they reveal about

what happened january 5th and sixth? the white house director of the national economic council will be here after last week's record inflation number. what can the administration actually do? especially with senator joe mansion again throwing up a roadblock to the president's agenda. we will start with what we are learning about the house select committee next hearing this week on thursday night primetime 8:00 p.m. , the panel will give a detailed account of what took place inside of the white house as preisdent trump supporters stormed the capitol. lawmakers are looking at the 187 minutes between trump's stop the steel rally taking place and then when he finally tweeted out a video telling his supporters that he loved them and that they should go home. congress woman and congressman

and the kinsinger expected to play reading roles in the hearing, here's what they have to say about what we will learn. >> this is going to open people's eyes in a big way. the reality is the president did not do very much but gleefully watched television during this timeframe. we will present a lot more than that but i knew what i felt like as a congressman, if i was a president sworn to defend the constitution including the legislative branch watching this on television i would've been going ballistic to try to save the capitol. he did the opposite. the president did not do anything and we will fill in the blanks and if the american people watch this, particularly to my fellow republicans, watch this with an open mind and is this the kind of leader you think you deserve. >> testimony is very valuable, we will be incorporating that into the hearing thursday but there is more.

there are other witnesses we have spoken to who have yet to appear in previous hearings who will add a lot of value and information to the events of the critical time january 6th. >> meanwhile a january 6th committee says it's open to have even more evidence by thursday's hearing after putting out a subpoena for the secret service for allegedly deleted text messages. the committee issued the subpoena on friday following a briefing by the department of homeland security inspector general. earlier last week the ig revealed after requesting pertinent records from the secret service for a probe into the insurrection, the agency said text messages from january 5th and sixth had been accidentally erased. when the phones were reset as part of a device replacement program. yesterday, committee members

expressed optimism that the messages could and would be recovered. >> we need them and we expect to get them by this tuesday. i was shocked to hear they did not back up their data before they reset their iphones, that's crazy. >> we will know more on tuesday, it is quite crazy the secret service would end up deleting anything to one of the more infamous days in american history particularly when it comes to the role of the secret service. >> the secret service continues to deny the messages were deleted intentionally. and a tweet on friday spokesman said the secret service has been and will continue to be fully cooperative with investigations into the events of january 6th. joining us investigative reporter for the washington post who has reported extensively on the secret service.

so, what questions come to your mind when we hear these reports they were deleted during a device reinstatement program or whatever the phrase is. because you do ask where these phones not backed up? why wouldn't records from all secret service cell phones be kept at all times? but you know more about how the secret service works. is it possible these were deleted in a lawful manner? >> you are asking the central question. how could this really have happened? most agencies have pretty much routine training for executive branch agencies that have routine training that says look these are government communications. we need to maintain and preserve them for the archives that's part of complying with the records act for the federal

government. in the case of the secret service what i am hearing from sources inside is yes people were often told and they were told when the reset of the phones was going on in january, beginning in earnest in mid january of 2021 we should be backing up this material but in practice that was not happening. i think the huge problem for the secret service in this instance and in this investigation is one, they are not always trusted because they have not always been compliant with investigators. in fact i have tried to bury bad and humiliating information from not just the press but from congress so, their trust level is kind of low. >> understood go ahead. >> the second huge problem for them is that this is such an

important piece of evidence. every communication that happened from december 18th to january 6th is critical and who are the witnesses to history that stand on the president's shoulders, the secret service agents. we know from the january 6th committee that cassidy hutchinson who gave the startling testimony that you focused on, she was having text messages with a secret service executive then temporarily filling in as a white house political aide which is also bizarre but she was having text messages with him that were shown during the hearing. so we know they exist from cassidy, it is a question mark about if they exist from the secret service side. again i will emphasize the second problem for the secret service is how in the world could you come after receiving a request for documents on january 16th from the january 6th committee, how could you

have not been instructing your employees in a more vigorous way we need to preserve these records? the service has said hey, we do not get a request from the inspector general until late february. after we had already begun the reset of these phones but the committee reminded the secret service, we sent you something january 16th. why weren't your preserving records then? >> a couple of questions, first of all can she corroborate the missing secret service text messages by getting mark meadows? the ones you would be interested in would be communication between the president and the secret service or any directives wouldn't that be through mark meadows, with the be through mike flynn, are there other ways to see the text messages and then secondly are text messages missing from many days?

because of the reset or just january 5th and sixth? >> my understanding, talking from sources that are speaking confidentially and we do not have an official answer, we will know more on tuesday tomorrow but my understanding is lots of records, lots of communications and by this i only mean texts. a lot of days worth of texts are missing from lots of different employees, some of whom were right by the president and some of whom were far far away from him and these were not backed up. you ask the question that is so smart about can we get these through mark meadows or mike flynn? it is possible but as a member of congress, you should expect that the government is maintaining its own records and you don't have to seek out the information of a terminated national security advisor who got into the white house almost

by accident in late december. you expect the government is going to have government records. mark meadows is somebody who has resisted subpoena and the department of justice has not really forced him to comply so that makes it tricky for seeing his phone records before congress. of course the department of justice has other ways to investigate but congress is relying on justice to force meadows to provide information and testimony and so far that has not been successful. >> thank you so much for your reporting, thank you for being on. more now from capitol hill where democrats are as upset with senator joe manchin after he torpedoed their hopes of acting on climate change, this comes after he told democratic leadership he is not willing to back major climate and tax

provision in the agenda forcing democrats to make a choice to pass the provisions he wants or drop the package altogether. senator bernie sanders was especially upset over the weekend suggesting manchin never negotiated in good faith in the first place. >> people like manchin to a so degree intentionally sabotaging the presidential agenda, but there and people want, with the majority of us want, there's nothing new about this. the problem was we continued to talk to manchin like he was serious and he was not. this is a guy who was a major recipient of fossil fuel money. a guy who is received campaign contributions from 25 republican billionaires. spotlights bring in the director of the national economic council. i will not pull you into the politics but i will ask about the issues impacting the

midterm. in the president biden agenda which he is struggling with. so first being able to address basic things like gas prices they are going down but could they have a resurgence before the midterm and is there anything the white house can do? >> good to be here, let's talk about gas prices which have been falling 34 straight days and they are down about $0.50 which makes a big difference for a typical family saving about $50 per month at the pump and based on where the market is we should expect gas prices will continue to fall. we know that gas prices really take a bite out of people's pocketbooks and capture media attention. when gas prices were going up your network and others covered it constantly now gas prices are coming down. this is the longest sustained period of gas price reduction in over a decade, we saw the

longest single day declined since 2008, gas is below four dollars per gallon at 20,000 gas stations across the country so that is good news. good news for the american people and we anticipate the gas prices should keep coming down over the course of the month. >> so we are still dealing with record inflation numbers. is there anything the white house can do without actually driving the economy into a worse situation that would be more painful for people at a time that is politically dangerous for democrats? >> absolutely and you have seen the president and this administration not only identify inflation as the top domestic priority but lay out practical things we have done and can do. some of this is about reducing exorbitant cost getting passed onto the consumer. the president for example calling out ocean shipping where there is exorbitant cost, bringing together we have seen ocean shipping cost come down

for the last month and a half. we could pass legislation which we are on the doorstep of doing to build more semi conductors in the united states, increase the supply. why does that matter? one of the biggest drivers of inflation has been inadequate supply of vehicles, cars, cars have contributed to inflation because automakers cannot build enough of them. we pass the legislation which will hopefully go to the floor of the senate tomorrow. we will send a signal to the world that the united states is going to lead in industry, big national security consequences that will help on the inflation front as well. >> no doubt, gas prices falling for a month but there are growing concerns that say come this fall we could be headed into another crisis if russia fully shuts down oil cutting off gas supplied to europe that will send prices soaring and lead to real problems particularly on the continent

which will have ripple effects here. how is the white house preparing to meet that potential challenge? >> it is those risks that have caused the president to lead globally the way he has come a couple weeks ago the president went to g7 and worked to get an agreement to explore a price cap on russian exactly 2 get ahead of the risk you are anticipating. we want to keep the global supply of oil on the market sufficient while reducing revenue to vladimir putin. we are intense dialogue and in negotiations with allies and partners around how to implement a strategy like that and we're here because the president anticipated the risk. he and his team have been working the issue and working to get ahead of the challenge but even as we look forward to those risks we should note now today in the economy of

automatic income is are feeling and seeing is a decline at the gas pump. the more that we focus on these risk mitigation strategies the better we will be going into the fall. >> director of the national economic council, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. joining us now is a longtime democratic strategist and political advisor liz smith senior communications advisor to then presidential candidate and also a former staffer for former new york governor andrew cuomo, her new book entitled any given tuesday a political love story is officially out tomorrow and i look forward to talking with you about that. taking a brief moment to talk about politics since we have you. given the situation in washington, what advice would you have for democrats headed into the midterms? what message would you suggest

they focus on? >> this is something i talked in my book any given tuesday. a key lesson that i learned from 2012. when i was working for barack obama then people said he was doomed because of the economy and these various indicators and what he successfully did was turn the election from a referendum on him into a choice and democrats need to go out every day and make this a choice between a party, the party of the democrats are trying to bring relief to the american people and the republican party which is trying to take away freedom like a woman's right to choose and to destroy the system. earlier, you guys were talking about senate races which are really important. i want to spotlight some of the governors races because we know a lot of the key fights this

year are going to be in the states, this year and the coming years and we have candidates in arizona, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, people who want complete ban on abortion with no exceptions. people in 2020 will not allow free and fair elections in 2024 so that is on the ballot in 2022 and that's what democrats need to be screaming about every day of the week. >> let's talk about any given tuesday. a political love story you call it, tell us about the book, the title, the candidates you have worked with and why you decided to write it. >> there is a lot there. any given tuesday is inspired by the saying any given sunday, on any given sunday the worst team in the nfl can beat the best and your wins do not

define you nor do your losses. after a brutal loss you have to pick yourself up and go play again. politics like football involve a element of belief and you know my record my career speaks to that. more than ever we need people to believe in the political process because politics touch people's lives whether they like it or not. democrat, republican, someone who cringes when they turn on and see a political panel and we have seen that recently with the dobbs decision. i think back to when i was 19 years old in college and i wanted to get involved in politics but there was no handbook for me, there was no guidebook. i would watch the war room but the only woman that i ever saw really in the war room was gennifer flowers. i realized i have been lucky to

reach sort of the upper echelon of women in presidential politics and i want to share all the things i have learned in my time. the good, the bad, the ugly. share my successes, show how people can get involved because politics is more important than ever. it is a matter of life and death and we need every person on the field. >> i love it and you really do have some incredible candidates you have worked with and moments of high drama we have to give good news and bad news. the book, you write about your time working for governor andrew cuomo. faced with the first accusation of sexual harassment he swore to the crowd advising him that nothing else would come out. it did not take long for us to see he was not being completely truthful. one week later word of new allegations, the most serious

and shocking yet. it was tempting to cut the cord then and there but we waited until we heard directly from cuomo himself, everything followed a similar rhythm. within a couple of hours cuomo was on the phone vehemently denying the allegations. there was one key difference i heard something i had never heard in the governors voice before, genuine fear. this is not true, it never happened he told us. in real-time we could hear the most powerful person in the state of new york beginning to process he was in real trouble. he wanted to come out guns blazing against the accusations when he got into his darkest moods he was making a comeback. i want you to explain four words. governor, stop, it's over. tell us about that.

>> like a lot of other advisors going into this, governor cuomo was someone i love, someone i trusted. i viewed him as a mentor, as a father figure and he vehemently denied all these allegations and said nothing else would come out but over time it became clear to us he was knocked is the full truth. over time it became clear to us that he did have a pattern of inappropriate behavior with women where at best he was making them feel uncomfortable and at worst unsafe and that was why by the end almost to a tee we all said he had to step down. and it taught me a really important lesson about politics that i hope everyone learns which is that there is a difference between loyalty and integrity. there's a difference between blind loyalty and earned the loyalty and in this case i let blind loyalty get in the way of

what was doing right but i'm glad that at the end i could do the right thing by joining my colleagues telling him he had to step down. >> congrats on the book. the theme appropriate for a cincinnati bengals fan like yourself. questions whether governor cuomo has a political future down the road. another one of your former employers does, he had a out of nowhere successful run in 2020. now a member of president biden 's cabinet. rumors that he will someday seek the big office again. tell us about how you first started to work with him when it was a small town mayor, what you saw that you believed he had a future and what he could do next. >> i first met pete in december 2016 about a month after donald trump won the election when democrats like myself were confused, this illusion losing

our minds over the fact donald trump had just won and there was this attitude that to beat trump we had to be trumped and we saw people like eric holder going out and saying when they go low we kick them in the teeth. and you know that style of politics. pete was the absolute opposite. he understood something that i believed which was to beat trump you didn't need to be you needed to be the antidote. from the get-go i knew that sort of message would cut through with people, the people were sick of the yelling and screaming and hyperbole in washington d.c. and someone like him with a nontraditional background, a history of service could cut through and be someone who would be the ultimate antidote to online donald trump.

that's why early on we made the calculus no one knew who he was, he had no money, the email list was like 11,000 people which is will maybe a state senate candidate would have. so we made a point to go speak to media everywhere because we knew the more people that hurt him, the more they would like him and it was really important to sort of breakthrough the tradition media style we see no. you people who just watch msnbc, who just watch fox news, just watch other news so we put them on all outlets so basically anywhere you went you had to hear about pete arredondo and everywhere he went he knocked it out of the park. all that being said he went from being seen as a joke to winning the iowa caucus which no one expected and now, in the biden cabinet is a massive asset to the administration and the best communicator. where does he go from here?

he goes out to promote if researcher package, go to communities across the country and talk about how the biden administration is working to create jobs, help underserved communities. does he have a political future? i certainly hope so but i have heard him say it's possible he runs for office, it's possible he doesn't but what is most important is he goes and tells the biden agenda every day of the week. >> the book entitled any given tuesday, a political love story, liz smith congratulations and thank you for coming on the show. love all the stories, check out any given tuesday. still ahead on "morning joe", republican candidates in some key senate races are turning in four fundraising numbers. we are following the money and what it means for the democratic party fighting to hold the senate, plus by the

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assistant smokey vo: ha-ha, ha-ha. -see, smokey think's im funny! sounding much more likely that an announcement from former preisdent trump for a 2024 election bid is more of when not if. not just about avenging a loss, four people with knowledge of the situation tell rolling stone mounting legal issues are a motivating factor for trump's desire to retake the white house. one of the sources who discussed the issue told the magazine he says when not if he is president again a new

republican administration will put a stop to the justice department investigation that he views as the biden administration working to hit him with criminal charges or even put him and his people in prison. according to the justice department office of legal council a sitting president cannot be charged with a federal crime. the same is not true for prosecution at state level however that would possibly go to the supreme court so let's bring in the host of way too early and white house bureau chief at politico and former chief of staff she was senior aide to the hillary clinton and biden presidential campaigns. good to have you both on board. >> not a really big surprise, a lot of people talking about the fact that it donald trump may seek reelection to avoid prosecution. of course you have a new book

coming out that goes through everything donald trump has done. it now seems to be landing him in hot water, not just politically as we heard on your show but it is impacting him politically but also legally with the justice department. >> there is no question, the investigative pressure has ramped up dramatically. there is january 6th which we will see in prime time on thursday laying out a clear-cut case as to his duty on the sixth itself but also everything you did headed into that sowing the seeds of chaos that erupted into violence at the capitol that day and are prosecutions gaining steam with one in georgia, matters in new york. a lot is happening here and he and his aides are looking to potentially jump into the race maybe sooner than later maybe before the midterm elections

much to the dismay of his fellow republicans who feel he would be a distraction, they believe the department of justice which has been reluctant and slow to move on trump they might be more so if trump were a declared candidate. it is wanting to prosecute a former president and another a former president and favorite to be the nominee again and of course were trump to win the department of justice guideline the legal council guideline about how a sitting president cannot be charged with federal crime would come into play. we heard about that during the first term so that's another reason why he and his aides are eyeing the oval office but political standing has weakened. 's grip on the gop is not quite what it once was. >> going back looking at the mall there investigation where you have robert mueller basically saying in testimony

he would've been inside if you are not the president. 10 examples of obstructing justice, examples of his actions with russia that would've caused real legal concerns for anybody not inside the white house and you understand what he is thinking about running but here we find donald trump once again talking about doing what's best for donald trump undermining the party. how much would democratic candidates love to have donald trump back on the campaign trail saying all the crazy things that he says every day making the election about a referendum on donald trump just like 2018. >> i have learned being on hillary clinton's campaign you should never underestimate donald trump, we thought when he announced he was running he would be in the race for three weeks and we know what history ended up being put in the situation he is damaged goods

in many respects in this party. he still has some support sure but the fact that he is holding anywhere from 47 to 49% among republican party voters that is a dramatic difference from what was even just two years ago. so i think the january 6th committee has had a major impact , obviously the primary elections he has not had a great track records. a lot of candidates he endorsed have not gone on to win their primary so him getting in the race now we will see how everything plays out but i think it will end up being net positive for democrats because he will go out every day and say crazy things. we have not heard a lot the last year because he's not on social media or twitter and i think he will be given a platform again to not only go out and say the crazy things

but also give president biden and other democrats running in the midterm elections they contrast, somebody to contrast the message with and show maybe democrats are not perfect but look what you may get if you don't support us so it's probably going to end up being a net positive should he jump in the race early. >> coming out to the white house following president biden's trip to saudi arabia and discuss what if anything was accomplished during his controversial visit with the saudi prince. "morning joe" will be right back. back. anci ng, so you both stay cool. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. ng, save 40% on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed queen now only $1,499.

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new fundraising numbers show major momentum for democrats in some key senate races ahead of the midterm elections, from april to june democratic candidates in high- profile contests around the country blowing away leading republican challengers in arizona the trump backed

brought in just over $800,000 last quarter compared to more than $13 million for the incumbent democrat mark kelly. in pennsylvania despite being absent from the campaign trail due to a stroke the democrat raising nearly 5 times the amount of celebrity doctor in the spring and in georgia although republican herschel walker raised $6.2 million that did pale in comparison to the $17 million raised by democrat warnock. so the fundraising numbers tell a story. >> they really do let's bring in the cofounder of axis, we have been talking for some time about how the republican party did in crazier and crazier at some point, they've already lost the suburbs of northern atlanta, they have lost the suburbs of philadelphia.

certainly did in 20 and i suspect again in 24, 22 everything tilts their way but despite the massive advantage they have in 22 you had a fascinating story about how whether you talk about pennsylvania, whether you are talking about georgia, talking about arizona, even ohio, these democrats are out fundraising republicans who are supposed to run away with the race this year. >> this is a real canary in the coal mine. we have been focused on the red wave which we think is coming in the house but republicans recognize they could lose the senate and a couple months ago we would've said they looked likely to take the senate but i'm told by republicans to look for fundraising deficits all across the country, the reports came in friday night so we are

seeing all of them. what republicans will tell you is they would rather take the environment, how people are feeling about the direction of the country and the economy over money honey any day but this lack of money is hurting campaigns. we see this in ohio you mentioned tim ryan how far ahead he is. with the consequence? this summer usually campaigns are sweeping, on the airwaves in ohio unanswered saying he is conservative friendly and he can reach swing voters. he shows a sheriff in a attic, has a anti-china at, all possible because of the money disparity. >> we of course remember in 2012 early fundraising and early advertisement buying from

barack obama defying mitt romney by may or june as a out of touch corporate raider so all the early spending going on match may have an impact later on but you know mike said the republicans are telling him with the environment you know that environment they should be getting in 2022, that said fundraising is the leading indicator of that environment. if somebody does not want to give you money there is a reason because they are watching tv and on tv they see the january 6th hearings, they are watching tv reading news stories about 10-year-old girls having to be driven across state lines so they don't have a forced birth of a baby, in ohio one school shooting after another and is not democrats saying please let's do everything we can to keep the

ar 15's in the hands of the 18- year-olds, let's do everything we can to stop universal background checks so maybe shootings can slow down a little bit. that is republicans so day after day after day after day these extremist positions that republicans are taking politically backfire and my gosh it keeps getting worse. you know have republicans in the state of texas suing the biden administration because they want the right to let mothers die on the operating table instead of having a lifesaving operation when they're having extreme complications in pregnancy. i'm telling you these are crazy bazaar extreme positions for republicans, for the independents and democrats. this is what the republican party of 2022 seems -bent on doing. >> positions far out of step with the mainstream and

campaign strategists believe the summer is a time to define your opponent before the fall and the campaign season ramps up, you can lay important groundwork to lay the groundwork with attacks against your opponent painting them is out of touch, the obama team they believed in the 2012 election it was won in the spring and early summer. >> coming up texas state senator gutierrez joins us on the heels of a new report on the uvalde school shooting details failure after failure by law enforcement, the community is demanding answers and accountability. "morning joe" back in a moment. alright, limu, give me a socket wrench, pliers, and a phone open to libertymutual.com they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need...

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break free from the big three and switch to xfinity mobile. 52 past the hour. since 2000, when author daniel silva's first book in his renounced spy series was first published, readers have followed along as his protagonist israelez spy chief gabriel alan

delved into major real world events that set the back drop for each of his novels. in the 22-book series, silva chronicles the tumultuous first two decades of the century through current events such as 9/11, the rise and fall of isis, the rise of putin, and putinism, and the middle eastern conflict and the pandemic and the january 6 capitol riot. his latest release hints at regional changes brought about by the abraham according and escaped a brush with death that involved a qanon supporter in washington. and "the new york times" best-selling author joins us now. daniel's latest release "the portrait of unknown woman" is available tomorrow. tell us about this, your 25th,

2-5 book. >> gabriel deserves some retirement and some time off. so he retires from the israeli secret service at the beginning of this novel and settles if venice to resume his career as an art re down into a search for the greatest art forger who and the twist of the novel is in order to track down the greatest art forger, gabriel must become the greatest who ever lived. it is a fast-paced at times hilarious journey through the dirty side of the art trade, i like to think of it as a cross between billions and the thomas crown affair. there is also dealing with a sub that art dealers and museum curators don't like to talk about and that is how many of those beautiful paintings that you see hanging on the walls of art galleries and in museums are

actually forgeries and fakes. and the numbers are quite astonishing actually. >> wow. want to hear more about that. and curious about the current events that you weave carefully into this one. >> this one, he takes a little bit of a break. you know, you mentioned the unfortunate accident that gabriel had sat the end of the last book when he was almost killed on inauguration day in washington. and this book takes a bit of a journey away from current events and focuses, it is a book that i've wanted to write for a long time and it begins in the art world and for the most part it stays in the art world. >> congrats on this one. i have read the entire series. and i have my copyright here. it is striking how you were able to be so nimble and reflect on what is happening in the real

world. mika just mentioned, the qanon, almost january 6th in the last book and you don't identify putin in you're book but it is clear he is inspired by him and then you use him as a real antagonist going forward and now we see what he's done in the real world. >> i think for better or worse, i was ahead on vladimir putin. i researched the first book called moscow rules, it published in 2007, it is a while ago and what i saw during my research in russia, much of it spent with russian journalists who are on the front line or being killed on a regular basis. just told me that we were going to have long-term problems with vladimir putin and i wrote a dim portrait of vladimir putin in that first novel and the second one, the defector and i got it

right. i was ahead of the curve on putin. i wrote a book a few years after the defactor called "the english girl" that focused on political interference in great britain which was already underway. so i did manage to get that one right. >> so, daniel, as you pointed out, you travel, you do pretty deep research to create your novels. and i'm curious if -- how you feel and in terms of your process, is there more for your protagonist or when do you decide if there is going to be another one. this is '22. >> this is 22 for gabriel. it is longer than i ever imagined it would go. i could say for certain the next book is a gabriel long book, i have numerous on the drawing board. i think that as i get a little

older, there are some other books that are sort of clawing at me to demand to be written. but for the next couple of years i think i will focus on gabriel. >> best-selling author daniel silva, thank you so much for coming back on the show. we love having you on. >> thank you for having me. thank you so much. >> congratulations. the new book is "the portrait of an unknown woman" and it is out tomorrow. thank you, daniel. so, jury selection in the contempt of congress trial for former trump adviser steve bannon starts today. any minute now. bannon had vowed to go, quote, medieval against those who brought the charges against him. the presiding judge over the trial had other thoughts. we'll explain that just ahead. plus, why the president of the american medical association said we are living in a, quote, frightening and fraught time in reproductive medicine. the care some women are not getting in the wake of the supreme court's decision to

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everyone gets the best of you. there's a monster problem and our hero needs solutions. so she starts a miro to brainstorm. “shoot it?” suggests the scientists. so they shoot it. hmm... back to the miro board. dave says “feed it?” and dave feeds it. just then our hero has a breakthrough. "shoot it, camera, shoot a movie!" and so our humble team saves the day by working together. on miro. as we roll into the fourth hour of "morning joe," welcome back. it is 9:00 a.m. on in the east coast. 6:00 a.m. out west. we have a lot to get to this hour. including the latest on the controversy surround those erased secret service text