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president trump will take the stage at the america first summit an hour from you. the first trip back to d.c. in a year and a half. he's speaking at an event less than a mile from where his former vice president mike pence looking and talking like a candidate, too, this morning. as part of a q&a pence was asked about the division between the former president and what it means for the party. >> i don't know that our movement is that divided. i don't know that the president and i differ on issues. but we may differ on focus. i truly do believe that elections are about the future and that it's absolutely essential at a time when so many americans are hurting, so many families are struggling that we don't give way to the temptation to look back.

>> to be fair trump's speech is billed as his vision and dealing with crime. that said, pence wasn't the only one who tried to take some of the steam out of trump's return to washington. his remark is kind compared to president biden's stunning takedown yesterday when he called out trump's lack of courage on january 6 and referred to trump as the defeated former president. joining me now is correspondent vaughn hillyard in washington and ali vitale on capitol hill and david jolly. welcome all of you. vaughn, you have been following trump around the country. does he do policy speeches? >> reporter: right.

we expect prepared remarks. the former president also speaks from those. for policy for him it is often a list that he finds important and denigrating the biden administration. and from the former president here today just standing here in the last hour feels like a reunion of the trump white house. you have larry kudlow, kellyanne conway and multiple members of congress. kevin mccarthy is here. this is a situation that donald trump is looking to mount a 2024 bid. when you look at the fact he has a war chest of more than $100 million and standing in the heart of washington d.c. he very

much has an alliance built up around him here. you asked about policy and the question is to what extent does he address the investigations into him. when i asked a spokesman for the former president he said the former president intends to talk about public safety. to give them the due saying quote president trump sees a nation in did e klein risen by rising crime under democrat policies and highlight the policy failures of democrat while laying out an american first vision for public safety. he is delivering the eight blocks from the department of justice headquarters and two of the other attendees were the secretary of state candidates mark finchum and one from

michigan and both folks that called for the desert if i case of the 2020 elections. frankly, in the american political system there's two different realities of what that means, chris. >> congressman, when you consider the list of that imthat is vaughn went through trump is guaranteed a like mind standing ovation but i wonder if it gets you anywhere beyond an ego boost. >> look. there is a competition within republican poll it cans and within conservative politics. mike pence handled some of the questions. he was not willing to distance himself from donald trump. you see them hug donald trump pretty tightly and use that line that this is about the future. let's look forward. donald trump ultimately is going to have his cards kind of

pressed because going into november if donald trump doesn't indicate on 2024 he is going to lose the news cycle to mitch mcconnell, to kevin mccarthy, to ron desantis. donald trump understands that and i think you will continue to see him lean into the narrative to run in '24. >> i don't remember when we heard trump speak not airing the grievances about 2024. i think a lot of folks would be surprised if he doesn't go back at what the president, president biden said yesterday and what mike pence said this morning. >> i don't know if he'll go after pence. it is interesting the way he dealt with the former vice president. been critical but not made him a target with an exception of a couple statements. there's a statement last december calling him a good man.

suggesting he didn't want to light him up at that point. the president has been making a pivot and been subtle. it is easy to miss because the headlines come from the election denying but a speech several weeks ago in las vegas focused on crime and i expect the same themes to be repeated here today. came out strongly for death penalty and shorter trials. not clear what that meant. for drug dealers. his advisers said other policy topics they want him to tackle, keeping him from announcing in the summer and by telling him it's important to lay out the bedrock of the next campaign and will lock like the 2016 campaign. descriptions of sort of heinous

acts that he blames on democrats were a fixture of that 2016 effort. >> there's an interesting article out there from former trump aid peter navarro argues the america first institute isn't maga enough. does that show that there are divisions as who's sufficiently loyal and who is not? >> yeah. and that is just boiling beneath the surface here. you had a panel of two on opposite sides of the chips act which is debated right now in the senate and then personal loyalty to the president. there is a significant concern among republicans that ginn the number of officials that trump went through in the first term if elected for another term the quality of people to work for him and the ability to make decisions and keep him from the

worst instincts would be a problem. i think there's certainly continues to be a set of advisers and people in the orbit whose main claim to power is their promising to be more loyal to him than anyone else and not call him out when he says things that are not true or harm the country. >> punch bowl looking at house republican members, graham, cruz. but nearly all the senate republican leadership is staying away so i wonder what you have seen in the way they approach trump. >> reporter: not entirely surprising to see people like mitch mcconnell stay away from this kind of event, especially ginn given they have with trump. there is a balancing act for

republicans in congress. at home especially in the house races trumpism is the law of the political land and to be re-elected their to stick close to him or not draw the ire. we see him traveling the country trying to go through the vendetta list of people who may have spoken out about the impeachment and against him playing out in realtime across the country in places like wyoming. lisa murkowski is up in a re-election year and in trump's vendetta list and then people have the calculations in this. yes, we often talk about mike pence to navigate the post-trump or the next ra of trump landscape and pence in an interesting position because he served with the man for four years but other people like rick scott in charge of the national

republican coalition and wants to elect as many republicans as possible. if you're reading punch bowl this morning what we saw them quote from him is scott saying i want republicans and want to stay out of it and able to make that negotiation publicly because of the role that he has in just electing as many republicans as possible to the senate and they hope make it a majority after the next midterm election but people like cruz and hawley and rick scott and others have a presidential calculations that are baked into this. we talk about ron desantis as the next heir apparent and certainly some straw polls indicate that's the case among the base that's loyal to trump but there are other political machinations in the background. what do they want to do going forward? >> yeah. david, i saw you chuckling as

ali described the political machinations that people are going through. i wonder the conversation among republicans you talk to and the january 6 committee how much if at all it damaged trump and maybe on the flip side did it in any way with the middle of the road republicans elevate mike pence? >> yeah. i think it's a great question. i think ali's insight is spot on and part and parcel to that because they know that it has somewhat damaged donald trump but not as much as you might think but a litmus test issue. they have to go along with the republican narrative and the stolen election. rick scott said i want more republicans so nobody's willing to use that as a death knell on trump. donald trump as michael said is selling fear and anger.

people -- brown people coming across the border. crime in the inner cities. people taking away the way of life. get angry about it and i will be your vessel. that is not a message from pence and rick scott. it is maga policy but more optimistic and forward looking. is today's republican party ready for optimism for buy the response to fear and anger? i don't know that we know the answer to that yet. >> again, more to come. i can't wait to hear what he says. vaughn, ali, michael, david, thank you. still ahead president biden looks like he might get political wins courtesy of congress. what will they do to help democrats in the midterms? is the u.s. in or headed to a

recession? what today's new report tells us about the direction of the economy. two former aides to mike pence said they testified in front of a grand jury. >> i did receive a subpoena and complied with the subpoena. sub complied with the subpoena cibinqo — fda approved. 100% steroid free. not an injection, cibinqo is a once-daily pill cibinqo can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. before and during treatment, your doctor should check for infections and do blood tests. tell your doctor if you've had hepatitis b or c, have flu-like symptoms, or are prone to infections. do not take with medicines that prevent blood clots. serious, sometimes fatal infections, lymphoma, lung, skin and other cancers, serious heart-related events,

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after weeks and weeks of doubt and speculation around the doj criminal investigation of january we are lynning new details about where it sounds. sources told nbc that mike pence's former chief of staff mark shore appeared before a grand jury last week. you might recognize him from interview clips played in the committee's public hearings. "the wall street journal" is reporting that greg jacob pence's former legal counsel appeared before the grand jury. he sat down with the panel and spoke at length last month.

what did both men testify about this time? we don't know yet but their appearances speak volumes about where the justice department's investigation could be headed. joining me now is carol lenig and barbara mcquaid. so barbara, we don't know what both of the aids, pence aides, testified about what but what would you expect to be in the line of questioning? >> i would imagine that doj would be interested in the same topics that we heard about in the january 6 committee testimony which is -- mike -- overturn the results of the election. i think those are the seeds of a charge for a conspiracy to defraud the united states and obstruct an official proceeding. that's the bad act by the president. and although mike pence might be the best witness himself to

testify about that these aides were there and i'm sure what they toebld the committee is similar to what they told the justice department and also gives us insight that the skrd is going for the jugular. this is not just the low-hanging fruit but this is inner circle stuff. >> shore told the committee that he told the lead secret service agent that president trump would publicly turn on pence. potentially placing a target on his back. it adds important background to what we saw in the newer video of the evacuation of pence. >> he didn't just potentially put a target on the back. donald trump did put a target on his vice president's back in the end result so mark short that aide to pence was correct in his

forecast and he is warning to the secret service is preshent. he had a good reason to think there would be a break. he was a firsthand witness to numerous attempts by donald trump to bully pence into agreeing to block the certification of the election. to basically pull a jefferson as donald trump once said to me and basically decide that the election was rigged and therefore he would, pence would reject the electors. what's interesting about this moment is the president is threatening pence publicly at the ellipse on january 6 as you highlight a then he is encouraging people to continue to be angry at pence by sending out that tweet little bit after

2:30 after the building is breached, after a panicked capitol police chief says we have a riot on the capitol. after all of that, the president basically says that pence didn't have the kournl to do the right thing. further enraging and lighting additional fodder and fuel for those who are on the capitol attacking it and calling for the hanging of mike pence. >> yeah. these are guys testifying about something that happened that threatened the life of their boss to whom we presume they have some level of loyalty. >> yeah. i imagine it went in a friendly manner. sometimes people think the doj is not putting people on the

grand jury but they are putting in people all too willing to cooperate. i wonder how other insiders like jeffrey rosen and richard donahue agree to tell the story and says to me they are close to at least considering charges for the high offenses like conspiracy to defraud the united states. we don't know if they have linked president trump to the oath keepers and proud boys. but it sounds like they're looking. >> as another clue to that that we know that doj is adding resources to the investigation. by that i mean officials taking a closer look hiding in the feeding chain sort to speak. >> yeah. i think that's right. you know, it is hard to know what's going on.

as merry garland said they don't do the investigations in the public. four oath keepers have cooperated. the justice department is in possession of the phones of john eastman and jeffrey clark with group chats, emails, text messages and the proud boys and oath keepers. if there's evidence those are the right places to look. >> always good to see you both. thank you. before we head to break, tonight lester holt will have an exclusive interview with attorney general garland at 6:30 eastern on "nbc nightly news." we have live pictures of president biden's first public appearance since the final dose of paxlovid to treat covid meeting with the chairman of the

south korean sk group to discuss jobs. as you probably know the president was diagnosed with covid five days ago. the white house doctor says that the symptoms quote almost completely resolved saying the president feels well enough to physically exercise and will continue to isolate as his condition improves. coming up, inside the race to stop a raging wildfire threatening a national treasure. are we headed for a recession or not? we are getting a new economic report almost every day this week. what today's said, next. what today's said, next. eliquk better than warfarin. and has less major bleeding than warfarin. eliquis has both. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor

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alice and long lasting gain scent beads. try spring daydream, part of our irresistible scent collection. with inflation at a record high a majority of americans are now living paycheck to paycheck according to a recent survey. 58% of consumers are in that boat and the people at the top are not immune. 30% of people making $250,000 or more spending what they earn in a single pay period so it is no surprise that almost two third of americans believe the economy

is in a recession but according to the biden administration that's a feeling not fact. >> people feel how they feel and the lived reality and the goal is not to try to change or convince people otherwise. >> joining me now is tom costello and robin farzad. tom, walk us through the reasons why so many americans are feeling like, sorry, we are in a recession. >> yeah. we got consumer confidence numbers today which suggest for three months the americans feel less good about the economy because of inflation. 9.1%. year over year number. highest in 41 years. it is very real for people going and paying for gas or the grocery store or the kids' events or try to buy a new car or cloetding. that is taking money from the pocket and means that your paycheck isn't go as far and

while employers pay more than a year ago it is eaten up by inflation. consumer confidence is dropping on the eve of the federal reserve expected to raise rights again. as soon as tomorrow because they have to get the inflation under control. but as you know the risk is you push it into a recession if you keep raising rates too fast. >> if people feel like we're in a recession does it matter if economists or the president say something different? how they feel influss how they spend and behavior and can steer the economy into a recession if it is not already. >> people fixate on the definition of recession and what tom got into but in terms of a misery index i would buy that inflation is where it is. gas well above $40 for a while

off the coattails of covid and a period of supply chain volatility in the country and the general overall reset of the pandemic which is experienced first time in 100 years or so. coming out of that we ask what is normal? it is kind of a broader existential question and irrelevant if we are in recession. >> you mentioned the fed is expected to raise rates again tomorrow. what will we see with mortgage rates and car loans and the credit card interest rates? >> they will all likely go higher. mortgage rates are influenced by what the fed does. credit cards higher. home loans higher. you know, i talked to an economist saying this is a head scratcher of an economy and challenging for the fed to get the head around itself.

we have 50-year low unemployment in this country. we have wage gains. 400,000 new jobs a month and more jobs than there are workers right now. that is a strange economy with some signs of strength when on the verge or in a recession and the traditional definition of a recession two quarters of a shrinking economy and gdp may be what's the definition and may not work this time because in technically a recession and yet we have got other signs of strength, full employment, how does that balance out? they have a job. it is a strange economy that the fed has to navigate pumping the money into the economy to save it in the pandemic from the depression and now trying to find the sea legs again and it is not easy. >> it is not just the fed.

in fairness and gets into taboo territory. ppp, the extent of the stimulus. people felt lucky by christmas of 2020 to save the payroll. i effectively is backstopped by uncle sam. and there are people still counting the blessings for that and a tremendously different thing to mop up the tranches of cash and stimulus in there because while the economy is feeling weaker, people want to travel and eat out you still sense that there is a lot of dry powder in this economy. >> can we just make a last point? i get people on twitter coming after me on an economy story. both congresses that pushed money through in the pandemic to shore up the economy and keep people employed and the food on the table and republican

congress that pushed through tax cuts. all of that has fueled this hyper economy that has been on fire and now we are feeling it on the backside. >> i think you could -- tom called it a head scratcher. the administration calling the economy unique. but to the point to look back at history saying when "a" happens we can do "b" and the result is "c" but we are in to a third phrase in unchartered territory. i don't want to say does the fed know what it is doing -- >> you have to ask that. tom, let's think about the last quarter century of emergency rate cut campaigns. greenspan, bernanke, powell. we bring rates down to zero and then some with easing and

creativity from the fed and congress and there's a bigger hell to pay for that. coming out of subprime and this. it is an enormously different thing. how many trillions of dollars through interest rate cuts and tax cuts? if we are looking bag at a 1982-type scenario to bring up rates so high that you have to put the economy in a deep recession maybe that's the only analog we have here. >> robin, tom -- >> a great conversation. >> i hope not! >> thank you. >> thank you so much. could president biden be on the brink of wiping out hundreds of millions of dollars of student debt? when it appears the president's agenda are in jeopardy the democrats appear to be on the cusp of legislative wins. e e cusp of legislative wins

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the biden administration could be on the cusp of several legislative wins. these are the major bill that is lawmakers are trying to push through before the august recess. a plan to cut prescription drug costs. making more chips in america rather than china and a bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriages which passed in the house but needs at least ten republican votes in the senate. joining me is two guests. author of "fight." good to have you guys. sahil, walk us through the bills and what are the chance of pushing them over the finish line? >> we are in the final sprint to recess. firstly the computer chips bill

cleared the senate moved forward on an overwhelming vote of 64-32. it would make a major investment in semiconductors and science and technology. it is on a glide path to passing the senate and could happen this evening. it's likely to head to president biden's desk after it passes congress. full. then the prescription drugs and aca funding bill and left of president biden's agenda and the two provisions that senator manchin is willing to do and democrats hope to get this done next week with clearance from the parliamentarian to make sure it complies and then 50 members are here and voting. several are sidelined with covid. no coincidence that senate democrats held a caucus meeting virtually. i have seen them wearing masks. that bill is likely to pass if

democrats are here in the snathd and healthy next week. there's a same-sex marriage bill with a cloud of uncertainty. doesn't have the votes needed to break a filibuster. lisa murkowski is leaning toward it and not clear where the other five come from and mitch mcconnell said they won't announce how they vote until chuck schumer doesn't want to bring it up without the votes. there's a resolution to admit finland and sweden into nato and in the house they could vote on a tiger king bill. you heard that correctly. banning private ownership of large cats and tigers. and then a gun bill. it's likely to die in the senate

but a major statement of intent by democrats to go aggressive on gun violence. >> john, say the democrats find momentum on the hill and get a couple things passed. how much of a difference could it make for somebody trying to figure out who to vote for in november? there's so much out there. >> conventional wisdom would indicate that republicans have a significant advantage. the facts are that the race is essentially dead even. so it's essentially a dead even race and voters tell us is that they're seeking passion, resolve from democrats so that they want to know that democrats have their back and government can work. i think this series of packages

with bipartisan infrastructure, the work that's done on gun violence, the small businesses created last year and those things combined with obviously the specter of trump 2.0 in the offing is something that could fundamentally change i think the shape of the electorate. >> yeah. it is interesting to see who votes. you spend time researching young americans. i want to play the comments that republican senators played about the marriage vote specifically. >> i'm looking at the bill and probably will. >> i think it's insane that we're doing this. >> i made clear my support for gay marriage years ago. >> it's a pure messaging bill and settled law right now. >> i support same-sex marriage. i have for a few years now. >> this is about creating drama,

not about creating policy. >> like roefrd it inspector general noefred two centuries of the nation's history. >> there's a recent politico poll 72% of 18 to 34-year-olds support gay marriage why when younger americans hear what we heard does it mean something to them? does it make them tune out or motivate them to engage? >> i think it absolutely motivates them to engage. they were preparing to vote well before did dod decision back in the last poll in april released. the number of young people likely to vote in the upcoming election relatively the same in 2018 with historic turnout. the concern has only grown when younger people talk about what potentially could be next. a significant difference that we

see, we talk about this country being divided by geography. it's actually more accurate to say it's divided by demography. in other words sven young republicans are different than the older parents and grandparents coming to issues. the views look much more like young democrats. this is a human right in their minds and the idea of it willing whittled away with other rights like women's right to choose is something of tremendous concern and only likely to make the electorate younger and favor democrats more. >> such an interesting conversation. thank you both. appreciate it. we could be getting a hint about student loan forgiveness coming in the form of new instruction of the administration to the companies that service the student loans. carol lee has new reporting for

us. what's the message from the white house on this? >> the education department contacted the servicers and said not to contact borrowers to resume payments which would need to resume under the current moratorium and the speculation is president biden is going to extend that moratorium and while the white house has not made commitments to that that is what is expected. politically and just the economic environment in terms of that this is something that you might see why the presidents want to do that. americans hurting economically not just covid and because of high inflation and so there's also pressure from the president's own party to not only extend this moratorium but also to weigh in on student loan debt forgiveness and looking to the white house to see whether the president takes a move on

that issue. we know that the white house indicated he is open to doing $10,000 of student loan forgiveness or people of a certain income and no announcement made and the pressure is on the president from certain members of the party to do that and do more. chris? >> thank you so much. i know you'll continue to follow that for us. next the very latest from california where firefighters are racing to contain when's become that state's largest wildfire this year. first in the midst of the ongoing investigation into january 6 we have an early look just now at my colleague lester holt's exclusive interview with attorney general garland. >> you said in no uncertain terms no one is above the law. >> yeah. >> that said an indictment of a former president, perhaps candidate for president, would arguably tear the country apart.

is that your concern? as you mack your decision down the road do you have to think about things like that? >> we pursue justice without fear or favor. we intend to hold everyone, anyone who was criminally responsible for the for the eve surrounding january 6th, for any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another, accountable. that's what we do. we don't pay any attention to other issues with respect to that. >> so if donald trump were to become a candidate for president again, that would not change your schedule or how you move forward or don't move forward? >> i'll say again that we will hold accountable anyone who is criminally responsible for attempting to interfere with the transfer, legitimate lawful transfer of power from one administration to the next. >> so a reminder, you can see lester's exclusive interview with attorney general garland. 6:30 p.m. eastern on nbc "nightly news."

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the images are truly awful. trees, homes, cars overtaken by flames, blanketed in dust-colored smog. the oak wildfire near yosemite national park has now torched more than 18,000 acres. that makes it the largest fire in california this sanz. and right now it's still raging. it is just 26% contained. nbc's george solis is live from mariposa county, california. how's the fight going there? >> reporter: yeah, chris, there's some cautious optimism. the conditions are looking a little better. there's more humidity, which is helping with this firefight, aggressive fight. firefighters dumping more than 300,000 gallons of water on this fire. the fire, parts of it moving toward burn scar areas, areas that have already burned. so that is less fuel for this fire to burn. this remains an intense fight.

firefighters still tackling this from the ground and of course from the air. but the dry conditions here are brutal. so it is very easy for this fire to kick back up. and as we mentioned, as you mentioned earlier here, 26% containment, more than 18,000 acres scorched by this fire. and the threat to yosemite right next door obviously a big concern for firefighters at this time. right now the park does remain open, but smoke does factor in here. that is a big concern. earlier cal fire officials addressing some of those concerns. take a listen. >> at this point the fire does not appear to be an imminent threat to yosemite. sure, it's in the area. and sure, you know, at least one of the main roads into yosemite is closed and inaccessible right now. but we don't believe that the fire's going to get into yosemite. we believe we're going to be able to keep it out of there. >> reporter: and chris, of course structures are still

being damaged by this fire, including the one where i'm standing. fire officials remain looking at the cause of the oak fire. that is the latest here in mariposa. back to you. >> george solis, thank you for that. and we just want to give you an update because just moments ago former president trump landed in washington, d.c. this is the first time. there you see the picture. 553 days since he left office. that he has come to washington. you'll recall the tradition is of course that the outgoing president attends the inauguration. then president trump refused and left d.c. we're going to have a lot more on the speech that he's coming for today, what it means for the presidential race in 2024. coming up in our next hour. hallie jackson will pick up our coverage next. hallie jackson will pick up our hallie jackson will pick up our coverage next. moves you've ever seen good for you, but shingles doesn't care. because 1 in 3 people will get shingles, you need protection.

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former president donald trump heading into the center of the storm as we speak. for the first time since leaving the white house back in washington. about to talk with a pretty friendly crowd. you see it on the left side of your screen. that's the microphone from where he will speak. but just about a mile and a half away from that investigation that is still going on into his actions or inaction on january 6th. what we know about what he may say or not and whether this is a preview of an expected 2024 run. with an nbc news exclusive interview on this whole topic coming in right now. new comments from attorney general merrick garland on the january 6th