a speech from the rose garden. millions of americans have used paxlovid , i tell you what, i used it. [ laughter ] welcome back, mr. president, welcome back. it is thursday, july 28, we have a lot to get to this morning. the federal reserve made the move to tame inflation. on the same day, senator joe manchin announces that he has reached a spending deal with chuck schumer that would revive major parts of the biden agenda. the fed chairman is echoing the president, assisting the united states is not in a recession. we will get a better sense if that is true when the gdp report is released later this

morning. we have major announcements, joe biden will hold a phone call with the president of china. the state department offers a deal to russia to get brittney griner and paul whelan release from jail in moscow. at what price? we have the host of way too early and the bureau chief of politico, and the author of the big lie. we have u.s. special correspondent for bbc news, and the former chairman of the republican national committee. good morning to you all. let's dive in after a year and a half of on and off negotiations. joe manchin has reached a deal with party leaders to pass a number of democratic agenda items through the reconciliation process. in a statement, he wrote in part, this bill will cut the inflation taxes that americans are paying. it will lower prescription

drugs and health insurance. it will ensure that we invest in energy security and climate change innovations. he went on, it is time to put away the partisan swords and advance legislation that is in the best interest of the future of this nation and the american people we all represent, not just one party. let's bring in jake sherman. i did say at the top of the show, it did surprise much of washington. were you surprised that this came to be between joe manchin and chuck schumer? joe manchin had furious democrats by rejecting much of what he approved yesterday. how did this happen? i was shocked. i was sitting at my desk at the capital, i got the email, and i was like what is this? they kept this incredibly close

to the vest. they deserve a lot of credit. joe manchin told us last week that he was staying at the table and negotiating. we did not believe him. he says that all the time. usually the deals fall apart. this is huge. this is giving the opportunity to the biden administration and senate democrats the opportunity to enact much of their agenda, climate change provisions, tax provisions, and everything they have been talking about for 2 years. by the way, chuck schumer got a lot of flak for being overly timid. this is a massive, temporary victory for democrats to get a deal on this. he is also in covid quarantine. we spoke with him yesterday for this morning's edition about what came together and how it came together? he said chuck schumer came back and said let's do a deal.

let's scrub it and get rid of everything you don't like, and let's it through. this begins a mad rush through august to get this through the house and senate, and to the president's desk. republicans will say it is a tax increase during a soft economy. there is truth to that. it does increase taxes. it gets rid of the carried interest loophole that private equity folks have relied on for many years. it institutes a minimum corporate tax. the democrats feel like it raises revenue and it will enact a huge swath of their priorities. to make it raises taxes, but it's a 50% minimum tax. this will have lowering prescription drug costs. the progressives have had these things on the list for many years. the question is, will the

pastor reconciliation, they need all 50 votes, and kamala harris to break the tie. that does open the question to representative cinema. was to go with this? to make joe manchin made the case that the tax hikes are so narrow on corporations that do not pay 15% minimum tax, that have a $15 billion book value. in his telling, it is very few companies. these are companies that are not paying their fair share. it does not increase marginal rates. it does not increase rates on individuals. it is simply, this corporate tax hike. he feels confident that she should come along. a bunch of her priorities are in here. there is a 9:00 a.m. democratic caucus, in which this will be discussed.

sinema keeps her cards close to the vest until she has something to say. i believe she will get on board. i don't think she wants to be the skunk at the garden party. we love to see. it does face long odds in the house. nancy pelosi has a four seat cushion to get this through. it will be difficult. if i am sitting here, and i am a gambling man, i imagine they get this through, sometime in august. they make that would be an extraordinary achievement if they get it through. also fascinating, as you have been reporting, due to what else happened in washington. the senate also passed a sweeping package to boost u.s. computer chip production to stay competitive with china. $80 billion over the next decade. 17 republicans joined all democratic members to get this over the finish line.

this passes first. they get that through the senate, 17 republicans on board. all of a sudden, they spring this announcement from joe manchin, by the way, we are passing this massive package through reconciliation to which senate republican said wait a minute, we didn't know about that wax now reports have it, that senate republicans that voted for the chips plus bill, our whipping house republicans to vote against her out of spite for the reconciliation package. do i have that right? >> yes, it is worse than that. the only reason republicans agreed to pass this chips package was because reconciliation was theoretically off the table. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell got worked. so did the lead sponsor of the chips bill. quite frankly, it is a black eye for them. i don't think they will be able to stop the chips bill from passing. even if they do stop it, it is

self-defeating. republicans know this needs to get through. they would be punishing chip manufacturers and national security if they kill it in the house. progressives are lining up behind this in the house due to that reconciliation process. democrats are confident they can get it through today. >> thank you for being up early with us today. let's talk about both pieces of legislation, but particularly the republican reaction to the reconciliation bill. they said we will not whip again something that we think is good for the country, the keeps us competitive with china, this helps get technology production at home, in everything that we use. just because we are upset by the way we got worked by democrats. >> yeah, it is amazing. the democrats actually played a little politics to get their legislative priorities done?[

laughter ]hercules, hercules. it is amazing. they can do it. they can do it. mitch mcconnell right now is steaming. he got outflanked on this. i think jack -- jake had it right in the middle. they will be trying to save a bit of political phase. in the end, the republican party going into the fall elections don't want to be the party that hamstrings chip production. not just in terms of what it means in a competitive marketplace, but what it means for national security. these national security republicans suddenly standing in the doorway. it was very smart. it was very quiet. this has now positioned the democrats to have a major piece

of their legislative agenda passed by the end of summer. this is a stand up going in for every democrat running in the fall. democrats have two figure out, what is the counterprogramming? how do we garner some face- saving? i don't really see it. republicans in the house will settle up on the bill. you might lose some, the real hard edges, that are in districts that are safe for them to do that, and can basically go back and lie to their people about what it is and what it isn't. at the end of the day, this will be a win across the board. >> republicans are being asked to vote against the bill that they previously said they supported, and if the bill fails, it would help china. that is a difficult vote to take indeed. let's talk about the other side

of pennsylvania avenue. we know this is not a done deal yet. there is still a tight margin in the house. if this were to happen, it is a much smaller package than what the democrats talked about last year, but is still substantial. it works with prescription drugs, climate, and it is a significant triumph for the biden administration. people were quiet and optimistic. they don't want to get ahead of it. they are feeling good, that if this gets done, not only does this give democrats a great platform to run on in november, it doesn't alter what joe biden can say he did over the first 2 years as president. >> that is an interesting point. if this does pass, the bills pass and become law, he has had a substantial first 2 years of his term. despite the substance, we in the media will say, look how old he is, democrats don't like him, they want somebody else to run his out of him.

he has had a substantial 2 years if these pass. the other aspect of it is, if you are home this morning, getting ready to go to work, and you are watching and listening to what is going on here for the last 10 minutes or so, you are wondering, what is going on in washington. they passed the chips bill, it's good for national security, it means we are less reliance on foreign products, like chips coming from china. it means that automobiles waiting to be shipped out, finally have the chip to put into make them run appropriately, and all the stuff. and yet, it passes. the republicans get mad, because they make the announcement later in the day that joe manchin and chuck schumer cut a deal on another bill that will reduce prescription costs, will require a carried interest to be taxed the way it ought to be taxed for rich people.

republicans will say, no, we will try to defeat the chips bill in the house, because we are angry. you think, what is going on with the government that they cannot do something that is good for america, because they are angry about the politics of it? it is a crazy, crazy city, washington, d.c. s.t.e.m. it might be minimally effective, at least. one of the things that democrats seem to have learned is to keep things quiet. we had so much open negotiation over the back better act. it did not get anywhere. all of the democrats disagreements were played out in public, in ways that were not beneficial. this was a deal cut behind doors. they managed to keep it quiet until the very last minute. my tying it with the chips act, they are not giving republicans much leverage to counter them. the chips act is something that republican voters would think

is a no-brainer. they also called it the inflation reduction act. that is better, anything called inflation reduction is a good thing with the american public. the light democrats have become savvy in the art of politics and how to get things done since the disastrous role of the build back better act that did not go anywhere. >> republicans are already talking about the bill is not anti-inflation, but contributing to the problem with spending and taxes. as said, we will take this as minimally effective. let's talk about inflation and the economy. the federal reserve hollowed through one another interest rate hike yesterday, trying to fight inflation, running at 40 year highs. tom costello has the details.>> reporter: the federal reserve does not like a surprise. they delivered what it promised.

>> unanimous decision to hike interest rates i 75 basis points. >> reporter: three quarters of a point, the most aggressive series of rate hike since the early 1990s. as the fed tries to catch up with runaway inflation, the goal is to bring inflation down, from 9% now to roughly 2%. the price hikes are eating into family and small-business budgets. in las vegas, this is a gluten and sugar-free bakery. the exploding prices are threatening her business. >> i walk the line every month. i have so much credit card debt, starting the business. i cannot get any loans.>> reporter: the credit card interest rates will climb higher, along with bank and new- car loans. with mortgage rates nearly doubling in the last year, pending home sales have dropped 8.6% in a month. in michigan, infinity homes built for first-time buyers. many of them now have ticker shock. >> we have had panic in the

sales offices with rates doubling. traffic has been cut in half. >> we will get inflation back down.>> reporter: while consumer spending are slowing, unemployment remains near 50 year lows. that does suggest that the u.s. is not currently in a recession. >> 2.7 million people hired in the first half of the year, doesn't make sense that the economy would be in recession with this kind of thing happening. let's bring in our senior market correspondent. good morning. we just heard from the fed chair. he does not believe the economy is in a recession. we may get a technical answer that russian in just a few hours. we will get the gdp report. two quarters of negative growth would put us into a recession. yesterday, as expected, the federal reserve raised the rate. put it all together, what does it mean? >> this is the hard part. tom laid out the confusion about what is happening right

now. there are so many indicators out there that do not point to recession at all. mainly, the jobs market. you will see a jobs market like we are seeing now, in times of economic distress. the reason why that data point is clouded over and glossed over, is, by far, the biggest story line right now in the u.s., and the global economy is inflation. that inflation is making people feel as though things are worse. even though their wages are going higher, and higher by a pretty good clip versus what we have seen over several years, in nation is running higher than that. everybody feels like they are falling behind. you get the feel of an economic recession. he also pointed out the technical definition of a recession. here's where things get confusing again. it is a bit nuanced. here is why it is important, the technical definition of a recession happens when a group of economists at the national bureau of economic research

declare one. sometimes weeks, months, and quarters after the fact that it already happened. with some experts, analysts, and experts have tried to do, they try to look at a time when a technical recession has happened, as declared by the national bureau of economic research. they look for common themes and trends. one thing they found, during the time of technical recession, there has been two consecutive quarters of slowing gdp growth. we got the first quarter numbers that showed a 1.5% decline in the u.s. economy. right now, the expectation for the numbers coming out this morning is that we will have a marginal increase. it will be one third of 1% gain in the u.s. economy. we may narrowly skirts this recession. the idea is, many americans and businesses feel as though this is an environment where they are falling behind.

that is why it is important for folks to understand what is going on. >> and i get back to the markets, and what the fed is doing? indication was that things are softening on the spending side. they are seeing some impact of inflation. it sounded more optimistic than what some people thought, in terms of what the fed might do next. i'm watching europe at the moment. you have an energy crisis this week that is going through the roof. energy prices are up 10%, because russia is turning the taps off. what are the risks that whatever the fetter doing, we go into the fall or winter, and what is happening in europe is looking really bad, and it starts trickling into the u.s. economy, derailing the best laid plans by the fed? >> this is driven by data right now. if it has been clear about this for months, quarters, and years.

the reason why he made those comments about waiting to see whether or not the data would support bigger interest rate hikes is because he also said that they may need to take a bit of a pause and slow down the pace of the aggressive rate hikes to see with the cumulative policy has done for these rates. the world economy is even more so interconnected upwards of 30 years ago. a lot of the stuff happening here and abroad affects everybody else out there. often times, when you have these inflationary scenarios, what will lead to is an economic downturn. people cannot afford higher prices, especially for things that they consume on a daily basis, like food and fuel. that is the case, people buy less. when companies and ceos start to feel as of the economy mace let into recession, they become more conservative with business decisions and the capital

spending plans, and hiring plans. all of these act in concert with each other. all of these things will slow the economy down, not just on the u.s. basis, but a global basis as well. if the fed starts to see the economic cracks starting to get exasperated. they had to slow down the hikes. they will have seen some efforts for inflation tamping down and working. they may not need to be so aggressive. this is the tight line that they have to walk. that to figure out whether or not they can slow things down without affecting everything so pervasively that the u.s. and global economies slips into a downturn. >> will get that report in just about two hours. you explain everything so well. thank you so much. still ahead on morning joe, the fight to bring brittney griner home from russia ? what we are learning about a

potential prisoner swap to secure her release, along with another american has been detained there since 2018. ukraine is stepping up counterattacks in an attempt to retake one russian occupied city. the admiral joins in to weigh in on all things russia. president biden's upcoming call with the president of china? an update on president biden's health. what he is saying about his recovery from coronavirus, compared to what his predecessor went through. you are watching morning joe. we will be right back. back.

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secretary of state says the united states made a substantial offer to rougher to bring paul whelan and brittney griner back home. our chief washington correspondent andrea mitchell has the details. >> reporter: with brittney

griner caged, testifying in her own defense, the secretary of state went public about a deal to bring her, and another american, paul whelan, home. they called it a top priority. stomach we put a proposal on the table weeks ago to facilitate their release. >> reporter: this will trade an arms dealer, for the two americans. >> what is the prospect of getting paul whelan and brittney griner, by making such a big trade over the opposition of the justice department. assuming you will not get into any of the details of what we propose to the russians over the course of so many weeks. the president is prepared to make tough decisions. if it means a safe return of americans.>> reporter: brittney griner is holding pictures of her wife, explaining she did not know that the cannabis , prescribed for medical use was

in her luggage. she is facing prosecution from the russian judge. i was recovering from covid- 19. i was packing and making sure i had my covid-19 test. i was in a rush. >> reporter: the wnba star, says when she arrived in russia five months ago, she was held for hours without a lawyer. she was interrogated in russian, using her phone to try to google translate. she was made to sign documents without knowing what she was signing. >> my rights were never read to me. no one explained any of it to me. >> reporter: brittney griner has pleaded guilty to the charges, facing 10 years in prison. they're hoping her testimony will help her get more lenient sentence. >> now joining us, [ indiscernible ]. he is a diplomacy analyst for msnbc.

admiral, good morning. these are never easy decisions. there is no equivalence between brittney griner having some trace marijuana in her back, and an arms dealer that has been in jail for 7 years. as we talked about on the show, if you want to bring her and paul whelan home, it may come at that price. >> indeed. there is a wonderful upside, getting brittney griner and paul whelan , home. i think there are over 40 americans that are unlawfully, immorally, and illegally detained overseas. this puts momentum in that idea. the bad news is, this guy, victor booth, is a bad news. if you're not familiar with him, you can google him. he is not only an arms dealer, he has american blood on his hands. when i was commander of u.s.

southern command, he was captured in 2008. we were celebrating, because he was the one supplying weapons to the terrorists in colombia, killing americans. these are never easy decisions. the president has to weigh this. i think he is doing everything he can to bring these americans home. >> admiral, we hope this deal is consummated, despite the russian under federal prison. i like to talk with you about what is happening in ukraine. have you been so prized at all, by the pathetic, logistical expertise, or lack of expertise the russian army has displayed over the months that this war has been going on? i was a bit surprised at the beginning of this thing.

as it has gone on, the russians have simply shown very little appetite, or inclination to improve. that is true, not only in the failing logistics efforts, but they also continue the manifest war crimes. the battle plans are ridiculously bad, as a general proposition. now, they have concentrated their forces in the southeast. that makes the more formidable and the logistics easier. bottom line, we need to keep doing what we are doing, which is providing the tools to the ukrainians. we have the new, surface to surface missiles. they are striking at the logistical log heads behind the forward lines. it is a very good thing. we need to give them more antiship cruise missiles. final thought, we need to put jets in the hands of the

ukrainians. we talked about training them to fly american aircraft, including the f-16. it is not that complicated. it could make a big difference as the ukrainians say, closing their skies. >> there is still a lot of discussion about what the u.s. and allies are so lined ukrainians. let's get an update on what's happening on the ground. local officials say ukrainian forces in a key strategic bridge in the russian occupied area. ukrainians used multiple rocket launchers, supplied by the u.s. to strike the bridge, being used as a supply route. this comes as ukraine launched a major counteroffensive to take the area, that fell during the early days of the war. the damage to the bridge will make it harder for the russian military to keep supplying its forces in the region. that is a positive sign. meanwhile, russian forces have taken over ukraine's largest powerplant. an advisor to the president

said it was a tiny tactical advantage. this is the first strategic gain for russia in three weeks, as they have been trying to control the entire donbas region. it has been a messy few weeks. we had some gains by the ukrainians, and some gains by the russians. what is your assessment of where things are? >> the course of war does not run smoothly. it is the most unpredictable of human activities. at this moment, i would say, go to the ocean. look at the black sea. look at the potential for unlocking great shipments out of odessa is very positive.

this is a mixed bag. two things are very positive. one is the continued effort for offensive operations around the town just mentioned. getting it controls the water supply to the crimea. it opens a front behind the russian abilities to go after the odesa region. that is the second positive point. russia does not seem to be able to mount the type of sweeping attacks that we were worried about four and five months ago. their progress will be incremental at best. long-term, i would not want the hand of cards that vladimir putin holds. time is not on his side, as continuing aid pours into the hands of the ukrainians. let's shift focus and talk about china. an important phone call in a couple of hours. president biden is speaking to

his counterpart. the two men have not spoken in months. it comes at a time with renewed u.s. concern with what china is doing with taiwan. it comes at a time of great economic rivalry. it comes at a time when the u.s. is frustrated that beijing has not condemned russia's war effort. it has been a soft partner in keeping the russian economy afloat. how do you set the agenda for the president of the united states today? >> the stakes are enormous. i will add another shrimp on the barbecue of what you just mentioned, the potential trip of speaker nancy pelosi to china. it is worrisome. it will be inflammatory in china, coming up to the run-up to congress. the president cannot afford to look weak on that. it is a point of real concern. the phone call could not come at a better time, in the sense that tensions are ratcheting up.

you identified correctly, ukraine will be high on the agenda. another will be, should they de- escalate in economics and reduce tariffs. that could reduce inflationary pressure. third, i think a good topic, where there could be some bridging is on climate. both sides obviously have a need to make improvements, globally. there is good things, and others. i will add a final one, as a former military officer, i hope and suspect both sides will talk about ds relating de- escalating confrontations. how do we de-escalate the standoff?

overall, i am hopeful we will get a good read out from the phone call, and it will do something to ds late tensions that have been rising recently. stay make you did mention the trip to speaker nancy pelosi. republicans are chairing her, saying go to taiwan. mike pompeo says i will go with you. you said that could be an inflammatory trip. what would that mean as a practical question? let's say she goes and lands in taiwan, how does china reach bond? >> china could respond in a number of ways, none of which would be helpful. notably, they could put aircraft up and put a record number of military aircraft into the taiwan strait. the number has been going up as the year has gone on. they could put ships around taiwan. they could use cyber to generate a massive cyber attack. they could take down air traffic control systems around taipei while the speakers plan is trying to land?

i can think of a number of other things that i do not want to mention. let's hope we don't see a reaction from china. let's hope that the speaker considers carefully, whether this is an advisable trip or not. bottom line, we, the united dates, cannot allow china to dictate who from our government goes to taiwan. i have gone to taiwan. i've met with the leader of taiwan. i am not the speaker of the house, at a moment of high tensions. we had to be sensible on our side. let's hope the chinese will be sensible on their side as well. speaker pelosi has been tightlipped about her plans. thank you for covering an awful lot of ground for us today. coming up next, former president trump and vice president mike pence are on opposite sides in republican primary for governor. this time in wisconsin.

we will dig into the race and what it means for the republican party and the future of donald trump? the department of justice goes after the trump attorney, pushing an illegal plan to overturn the election. a judge is giving federal investigators access to a key piece of evidence. morning joe is coming right back. for too long, big pharma has been squeezing americans

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the republican national committee is telling former president trump, it will stop paying for his legal bills if he announces a bid for reelection. it's october 2021, the rnc has been playing paying close to $2 million as he faces personal lawsuits and government investigations. an artsy official says that the payments would stop if he announces a presidential run. they cite the organizations neutrality policy, barring it from taking sides in a presidential primary. the rnc, and representatives for trump denied the request

for comment. pence announced he is backing kleefisch. trump will back tim michaels. the primary will be held august 9. you will remember pence and trump were in arizona, backing competing candidates. the development continues. this is a fascinating dynamic, between president trump and his former vice president. they have clearly broken far, far apart since january 6. how do you see this playing out? donald trump will endorse the candidate that pledges fealty to him. mike pence says he is behind the actually conservative candidate. it is different in every state. what does the dynamic look like? >> it represents an interesting

shift in how the party is trying to regain its footing in the primaries trump is endorsing the one over there. let the best candidate win. it shows how much my pants is willing to press from inside the party. he is looking for a brand of republicans that he was to move into 2024 with. he thinks the old brand of looking backwards will not work in a competitive market. it will be interesting to see how it plays out. this is less about whose candidate wins, and more about the fact that mike pence is

actually challenging, and making a press for his brand of republicans. the rnc piece you let into, i don't know why the rnc is paying trumps legal bills. is that what you are doing with donor money? this will be interesting to watch, how the elements have tied trump and the party together, largely because trump wants to exact a price for the party, for whatever he brings to the table, which is not much, in terms of electoral success. we lost the house, the senate, and the white house. it shows how leaders inside the party are beginning to find a lane they can get on to press a different argument. the beneficiary of this could be somebody like ron desantis. it could open up a lane for republicans like larry hogan to

make a case. we will see. >> on the donations, the self- proclaimed billionaire, letting small donors pay his legal bills , while he takes their money, it is amazing. president biden's economic agenda could be back on track now, after a surprise deal between chuck schumer and senator joe manchin. we will speak to the white house communications director, kate bedingfield, about what that means for the party in the country, as we go to the midterms. our next guest has created groups over the attack on the capital, welcoming for a potential run at trump in 2024. morning joe is coming right back. back. join the fight at alz.org/walk

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a little baseball now.

mets ace max scherzer on his 38th birthday was dealing in the subway series. he pitched seven scoreless innings. struck out six yankee batters. including aaron judge went down swinging. totally fooled. with david peterson on the mound in the 8th. glaifer torreson hit it past the 8th. mets would not let this go into the extras. starling marte. completing a two-game sweep of the crosstown yankees with a 3- 2 victory. and i've already received your letters, cards, prayers and flowers because the new york yankees no longer have the best record in baseball. by one game in the loss column, it is now the los angeles dodgers. i'm going to take some personal time for reflection and

grieving. >> the heart does break. the heart does break. there's still 33 games over 500 and 11 1/2 over the blue jays. but the houston astros are the real concern i have had for you. who have had the yankees numbers. but let's talk about the new york mets. and max scherzer. we actually, just in the last commercial break, dashed off the list, of players, bound for cooperstown. inducted last weekend. max scherzer right there at the top. along with characters like justin verlander. and the like. he's really special. still doing it at 38. >> 38 years of age. well worth every penny of the millions. multiple millions that the mets sign through them, as a free agent. well worth it. it's an amazing story. he and justin verlander. i think verlander is 89.

scherzer struck him out three times. seth lugo struck him out at a critical point. 4ks last night for aaron judge. it can happen to anyone. and it happened to aaron judge. i was feeling really badly for you, willy. i was drying the tears in my eyes. >> thank you. i appreciate that. now, there is help on the way. yankees traded guys for a former red sox player named andrew benintendi who was an all-star. hitting .320 this year. left-handed bat goes into the lineup. tell me from a red sox fans perspective, how much do we love this guy? >> very good major league baseball player. had one off year. and the red sox, hiam bloom, great guy, pulled off an amazing deal, traded andrew benintendi to the royals for frances cordero who struck out

33 of his last at bats. not a good deal. benintendi will be a good replacer. solid player. >> and on the same day, yankees, francky francis cordero. but andrew benintendi not vaccinated. not able to play in canada. >> and maybe a play-off series, which wouldn't be great either. i can see catty kay literally rolling her eyes. that's my cue. time to move on. >> i'm just so glad mike and jonathan are here. >> thank you, catty. >> we're going to change the subject immediately, catty. thank you. still ahead, a look at new polling. state of civility. near universal concern of polarization across the

country. as you can imagine. and battleground scptders are willing to support candidates who are willing to compromise. and the race for maryland's next governor. wes moore will be our guest. "morning joe" is coming right back. is coming right back. medium latte, half-caff, no foam. quite the personalized order. i know what i like. i've been meaning to ask you, carl. does your firm offer personalized index investing? hmm? so i can remove a stock that doesn't align with my goals. i'm a broker, not a barista. what about managing gains and losses to be more tax efficient? not a wizard either. looks like schwab personalized indexing can. schwaaab! learn more about personalized indexing at schwab today.

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. this is a very well organized, well funded, very committed, radical, in its prime movement. that still sees it as a problem that the blue face as abortion rights. conservatives now have the power on this court. power on this court. i do not think the u.s. is currently in a recession. and the reason is, there are just too many areas in the economy that are performing, you know, too well. and of course, i would point to the labor market in particular. 2.7 million people hired in the first half of the year. it doesn't make sense that the economy would be in recession with this kind of thing happening. so i don't think the u.s. economy is in recession right nu. now. federal reserve chairman jerome powell, defending the health of the united states economy. as you look at the white house, 7:00 this morning in washington. that's all ahead of a key report due this morning, just

about 90 minutes from now that could signal whether the u.s. is technically in a recession. also a major step forward for the biden administration. in a surprise with senator majority leader chuck schumer. also, president biden gearing up for a conversation with president xi. welcome back. jonathan lemire, katty kay, michael steele, all still with us. and joining the conversation on nbc news national affairs analyst, executive editor of the recount and host of the "hell and highwater" podcast, mr. john heilemann. let's look into the investigations to overturn the 2020 election results. the department of justice has revealed it has obtained a search warrant to go through john eastman's phone. eastman is a trump lawyer who

spoke at the stop the steal rally january 6th. he was one of the key people pushing the plan for then-vice president pence to overturn the 2020 election. eastman's phone was physically seized on june 22nd. but federal investigators told a judge on wednesday they obtained a second warrant on july 12th, to search the contents of the phone. the filing comes in response to efforts by eastman to stop investigators from what he says is "rummaging through his phone." arguing the initial warrant was too broad and risks the disclosure of privileged information. but the justice department said the latest includes filter to filter out privileged information. thomas windham, long-time prosecutor, spearheading the justice investigation into the attack on the capitol january 6th. he was at the d.c. courthoused last friday, when former vice president chief of staff mike

short testified before the grand jury. this all comes after we learned yesterday, former president trump's actions, leading up to january 6th, are, in fact, a central piece of the criminal probe at the department of justice. so, john heilemann, that's a lot to get through there. but the focus here, number 1, is the revelation yesterday, that d.o.j. is, in fact, looking at donald trump's behavior directly, perhaps not surprising, considering he was at the center of everything that day, and the days leading up to it. but also john eastman, a focus. the man who we've seen in black and white, the document he drafted, explaining how they could begin to stage their coup with the help of vice president pence. >> yeah, willie. i mean, look at the end of last week, all of us, including the most knowledgeable people in the country about this matter, one of them, not you, mike, one of them sits at this table, jonathan lemire, whose book, "the big lie," we discuss in

great detail. thanks for being unfaithful to me and hell and highwater. we had this very discussion, which is essentially, the hearings are now effectively over. the focus is now on the department of justice, facing, i would say the biggest decision that merrick garland probably has as attorney general and probably the biggest decision he will have as attorney general. and way more important than the eastman news is the news that broke yesterday. john eastman, in the fake electors' case, john eastman was going to be a focus of that probe. doesn't have anything to do with donald trump. but that is proceeding on a separate track. and he's a guy who, i would say, prior to december of 2020, probably donald trump couldn't pick him out of a lineup. i'm not sure donald trump couldn't pick him out of the lineup now. not that he wasn't important in the planning. there was the creation of the memo and all of that. but the real question is around mark meadows' criminal exposure. and the fact that d.o.j. is now, and maybe has been more

than we know, but at least right now, they're above the water line. and in a very tightly-run ship. they have allowed, i would say, it to be known, that they do have donald trump in their cross hairs. it is a monumentally important thing. doesn't guarantee an outcome. but for all of you who have wondered, does the d.o.j., even have the stomach to go after trump, to investigate him? i think the answer to that is now yes. we're going to see how much more stomach than that they have. >> and as we have discussed and reported, there's a lot of real frustration, among real democrats, including those who work in the west wing who thought he was going too slow, too much of a prosecutor. and that they were fearful that d.o.j. was not pursuing front. now we have confirmation that they do. michael steele, my question is, what happens now? we do not know what will happen here, whether there will be charges against the former president, whether he will be

indicted. but let's say it is. let's say that does happen. some sort of conspiracy or fraud, by trying to stop the election. how does that play out? this is someone we know whose words have previously inspired violence. lester holt put this to attorney general merrick garland the other day. he used the phrase "it would tear the country apart." but garland said that's not my focus. my focus is that there was a crime committed. but let's play it out. what does happen? if donald j. trump is indicted by the department of justice in the days ahead? >> there would be a lot of noise and bluster around them. and there will be those who will likely protest and raise their fist. but at the end of the day, just how far are folks willing to go, now that you would have a justice department that has made it very clear where the line is. how much are you willing to

risk them? i'm not saying that there won't be some type of street response. and we don't know what that would look like. but we cannot be held hostage to that possibility. we cannot be held hostage, if there's wrongdoing here. and the justice department sees that and moves on that, then, then it becomes incumbent on the political class, the elected officials, on the right and the left, on capitol hill and around the country, to stand firm. because if the rule of law, particularly among all of these right-wing ideologue trumpians means anything, then it should apply across the board to trump as well as anyone else. but we know that's not necessarily going to be their reaction. so it's degree to be very interesting, and i think, important for the political leadership to affirm that this was not a witch hunt, this was not some random act by the justice department, but one

that was built methodically and carefully by a department that understands what the political ramifications could be, even though that's not their focus. >> so i saw -- i gree with michael steele, mike barnicle, i agree with him i've always stipulated at the top here. merrick garland should not be thinking about the political consequences. thinking about whether donald trump is indictable or not. but with all due respect to lester holt, who i think is framing the question properly, but there's a premise there, the country is not already being ripped apart. the country is like, there's so much division, so much anger. there is this big lie that jonathan reports about in the book that he can hold a lot of the country. i don't think this should affect the decision. but the reality is, is it not, that if merrick garland does decide to indict donald trump that, there is going to be a tremendous outcry, among many quarters of this population that think the election was

stolen, who are in the grips of donald trump's conspiracy theories and delusions, and we have seen an escalation and embrace a political violence in this country over the last couple of years that is not entirely unprecedented, but new for the last 30, 40 years in america, what do you anticipate? donald trump will drive this, will seize on this, will try to inflame his people? do you not think we should all be ready, be braced for a very ugly period, not just leading into the midterms but officially the next couple of years, leading into 2024 if the d.o.j. goes forward. >> you pointed out that this country is already enormously disrupted, enormously divided, beyond our wildest imagination several years ago. and it gets to the point of the damage that donald trump has already done to this country, by his behavior. as president by his behavior in

this post-presidency. i don't think the justice department has, at the top of their list, what is going to happen within the country, if we indict either trump, eastman, whatever, but specifically donald trump. and michael steele, you're the only lawyer here this morning. my question to you is, are we underestimating selling short of idea that he could well be indicted for something that we really haven't spoken a lot about. and that's the charge of reckless disregard of the truth. >> yeah. i mean, that's a very interesting point. yeah, i think that he could. and i think a lot of folks sort of focus, mike, on sort of the issues that have more of a political feel to them, but at the end of the day, and this is what has been frustrating, but actually probably smart by the justice department, they had been looking at this thing very methodically, and trying to

figure out where exactly, in all of the players, donald trump fits. how -- what was his role? how did he play this out? how did he take charge? how did he ignore certain circumstances? how did he encourage them? so yeah, i think we could see the justice department come from an angle very easily, that we're not talking about right now, and that people are going to have to wrap their heads around, just how the justice department saw this. we're looking at this through a political prism almost, like, what's the backlash going to be, if they do x, y, and z. and x, y, and z touches up the and riles up the political base. but in the end, it is going to be much better for them than that. because that's where the sweet spot is. that's where they can make the conviction. at the end of the day, that's what's going to drive it.

it's not whether you try them, it's whether you can convict them. that is where the garland justice department is really focusing their firepower. >> well, all of this was going on. big news last night, out of washington, after nearly a year and a half of on and off negotiations, democratic senator joe manchin of west virginia says he's reached a deal with party leaders to pass a number of democratic items through the reconciliation package. he wrote this, this bill will cut the inflation taxes americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs and ensure our country invests in the energy and climate change solutions. we need to remain a super power. also passing a sweeping package to boost computer chip production to stay competitive with china. however, republican leaders in

the senate now are urging house members to vote against that bill, in retaliation for the manchin-sumer deal on reconciliation that came after. joining us now, white houseicate bedingfield. >> reporter: good morning. >> let's begin with the reconciliation deal that surprised a lot of people in washington. i know manchin, senator manchin has been a thorn in your side in many ways. it appears he's ready to make that deal with chuck schumer. how did that come to happen? >> reporter: well, the president is incredibly encouraged by what we saw last night. by the contours of this deal. it is truly historic. a massive step forward in our tackle of climate crisis. it's going to tackle inflation, reduce the deficit and make corporations pay their fair share of taxes, all while ensuring no one making under

$400,000 a year sees a tax increase. he is incredibly gratified by it. many of the things he campaigned on. he's grateful to senator schumer, senator manchin, and to everybody who put in hard work over the course of many months to get to this deal. it's incredibly important. and we are hoping congress will move quickly to get it done because americans are waiting to see what happens. >> not all democrats are on board. they're saying, look, we haven't really read the text of the bill yet. senator schumer, for example, not part of these negotiations has objected to some of these things like the carry income tax. are you confident you'll get democrats on board to get this through in reconciliation. >> look, obviously i don't speak for any members of the senate or house. but we are incredibly encouraged by what we saw last night. the general reaction. i think there's a lot of excitement from democrats in both chambers about the contours of this package. and there should be.

it is enormously impactful for families. it is exactly the action they have been waiting for. it is something the president campaigned on climate. you remember, he talked about climate as an existential climate, existential threat. this is going to take a step forward to make sure we can meet the goals that are going to reverse some of the effects of climate change. there is a tremendous amount of change here. we're hopeful that congress is going to move quickly to get it passed. >> kate, you've heard already, some republicans saying, this is the opposite of inflation, to add taxes at a time when inflation is at a 40-year high is not what this economy needs. what is your response to this? >> reporter: absolutely not. this package is going to reduce the deficit. we've already reduced the deficit $1.7 trillion last year. this is going to continue to do that. it's also going to bring down costs for american families. i mean, this saturday number 1 thing that we see people are

concerned about, are costs. this is going to bring down health care costs, which are a significant piece of a family's budget. it's going to help lower energy costs. these are the things that americans are relying on every day, this is tangible work that is going to ensure they're paying less for these things. so no. this is a package that is going to help tackle inflation, right there in the name. and it's going to have a real impact on family budgets across the country. >> okay. catty kaykatty kay here. secretary of state blinken said it was made a few weeks ago to have some kind of exchange here, which has been reported as the arms dealer, known as the merchant of death for these two americans. what's the holdup on the russian side? if this offer was made a few weeks ago? a substantial offer, why aren't

the russians responding to it? if they really want a prisoner like victor boot back, why haven't they responded? >> reporter: obviously i can't speak to the specifics of these negotiations. in order to help ensure their success, i mean, these are conversations that obviously necessarily happen in private. you heard secretary blinken say we put a very good offer on the table for brittney griner. and we've shown that we have taken measures to get those who are wrongfully detained home. the president deeply engaged. he has directed his team to take every step that they can to bring britney home. and so this is something he's been deeply engaged in. he's directed his team to do everything in their power to make this happen. but obviously, some of those specifics, have to, necessarily, remain private, in order for these things to work. >> if it is a prisoner swap of this nature, there's a reason

the government says it won't negotiate with terrorists because it doesn't want terrorists kidnapping around the world. but isn't there a risk that if you trade somebody like victor boot for these, you are encouraging more terrorists to take hostages. >> reporter: i'm not going to comment on this, these are negotiations that need to happen in private. again, i could reiterate what the secretary of state said yesterday, which is that we put a significant offer on the table. and i can tell you what i've seen the president do. which is his engagement in this case, his directive to do everything we can to bring britney home, as well as other wrongfully detained americans around the world. >> jonathan lemire. in about an hour, president biden is going to be speaking to chinese president xi jinping.

i was hoping you could speak to what is clearly high-stakes phone call. what will the message be to china's refusal to condemn the war in ukraine. and what will the president say about the trip to taiwan. >> reporter: as the president often says, he does not preview these conversations in public. these are direct leader-to- leader conversations. this will be his sphifght time speaking with president xi. he has known him since he was vice president. and he believes, obviously, very strongly in the value of leader-to-leader. we'll have a readout after the call. i'm obviously not going to get into what the president is going to say to president xi. what i can say broadly, of course, is that the president has worked to lead and rally the west and nations around the world in our response to russia's invasion of ukraine. we have induced significant costs on russia. ask obviously as you saw from the president's travel to

europe over the last few months, he's been critical and ensuring we are keeping our western allies together on this. beyond that, i'm not going to get ahead of what the president is going to say, directly to president xi. but we'll have a readout after the call. also at 8:30, an important time today, we're going to get these gdp numbers. >> reporter: a lot happening at 8:30. >> yeah. stay tuned. certainly, the white house has not been shy, in recent days, trying to get ahead of these numbers, really pushing back against devnition of numbers and so on. and you can you give us a sense of what this stays about the future of the state of the economy. >> reporter: to be very clear, i haven't seen them. we'll see them at 8:30 like everyone else. what i can say is obviously gdp is one factor. but what we see across the economy is, it's strong. over the course of the second quarter. the same period, that this gdp

covers, for example. we've created over a million jobs. that doesn't feel like an economy in recession. we are at historic job growth. there's strong labor force participation. you see major banks and financial institutions saying people have more money in their checking accounts than they did before the pandemic. and you also see them saying in their analyses that this does not look like and feel like a recession. i think the biden administration has created an historic number of jobs, continued to increase labor force participation, and the american people have more money in their pockets. we'll see what the gdp number looks like. but i would say it's one piece of a broader impact. >> but as you know, a lot of people are getting crushed by inflation. so it does feel like a recession. even if it's not small business owners who feel it at their shop. part of the way, including in the numbers from a poll on cnn that showed 75% of democrats,

and deem crattic- democratic- lining numbers don't want the president running. >> reporter: one of the polls, americans chose president biden head to head against donald trump if he were to run for president. >> that's right. >> reporter: so i think what we've seen is the president has put together an agenda that is building the economy from the bottom up and middle out. he is ensuring we crere claim our place on the world stage. he is committing to the things he promised to do when he ran for president. the other thing i say, he mentioned inflation. of course, american families are focused on inflation. so is president biden. it's why he's taken steps to try to bring gas prices down. it's why he's supporting the inflation reduction act of 2022, which is going to lower healthcare costs and energy costs. he is just as focused on this and he understands what they're

going through and he is doing everything in his power to bring prices down. >> so with all that said, are you surprised to see a number like that, that three-quarters of democrats don't want the president to run again. >> reporter: look. i think polls go up and down. and at a time, when you see inflation, you would see some of that manifested in the polls. but again, what i would say is joe biden won the presidency with 81 million votes in 2020. he is making good on the things he promised to do. again, we saw enormous progress last night, in this breakthrough, in terms of the inflation reduction act. and he's committed to doing the things he said he would do when he ran. and i think that's what the american people are looking for. and he's continuing to do that every day. >> white house reporter kate bedingfield. thank you. we will be joined by democratic nominee for governor for maryland and rising star. wes moore, fresh off his primary victory, now looking

toward the general election in fall. also ahead, polls have shown a mixed reaction to the january 6th committee hearing. but our next guest who has conducted dozens of focus groups say republican voters are moving on, many of them from former president trump. she'll explain. plus, a look at some of the most history-altering speeches that were never delivered. we'll explain that ahead. you're watching "morning joe" we'll be right back. ack. he's in adelaide between his color-coordinated sticky note collection and the cutest boxed lunch we have ever seen. and you can find him right now on upwork.com when the world is your workforce, finding the perfect project manager, designer, developer, or whomever you may need... tends to fall right into place. find top-rated talent who can start today on upwork.com

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live pictures, 7:28 in the morning. a very busy capitol hill. after eight public hearings from the select committee, investigating the january 6th on the capitol, has the evidence and the testimony changed the minds of voters. our next guest says they have. sarah longwell joins us now. she is executive director of

republicans rule of law and host of the focus group podcast. she's not a new piece entitled "the january 6 hearings are changing republicans' minds." i want to read part of your piece here. quote, i conducted dozens of focus groups of trump 2020 voters in the 17 months between the storming of the cal tol on january 6th and when the hearings began in june. one measure was consistent. at least half wanted to run in 2024. but since june, i've observed a shift. unlike the impeachment hearings, the accumulating drama of the january 6th hearings, which they can't avoid in social-media feeds seems to facilitating not a wholesale collapse of support but a soft permission to move on. if trump announces his candidacy for 2024 and is able to make other candidates look small by comparison, voters who have been driftinga away from the former president could

snap back. they still like trump, after all, and don't like joe biden. still, several voters in the focus group have made an extremely basic point in the contested gop primary, where there is one prevailing desire, obtaining political power. sarah, it's been watching the overwhelming evidence, as you say, put forward by the january 6th committee and presented by former republicans. aides, advisers. former president trump. that indict in this setting anyway, the president of the united states. is it making impact. sounds like, to some extent, the answer you found among republicans is "yes." >> reporter: yeah, this is a question, not so much of the january 6 hearings breaking through, as seeping in. we did nine focus groups with trump voters since that began. and that shift that i saw was that there were four full

groups in which zero of the respondents want donald trump to run again. and that was a really big shift, from what we had been seeing prior to the hearings, where you get at least half of any group that wanted trump to run again. and we actually did an announcement of those nine groups and only 15% of those trump-voting respondents wanted him to run again in 2024. and it really comes down to one thing, which is that they're starting to get concerned that he can't win. it's an electability question. republicans very much want republicans to be back in control. and so they are looking for yet -- in the january 6th hearings. what we're hearing from these voters is he's got a lot of baggage. i'm not sure we like him. but one thing it takes for voters to move on is they want to move on to. i think that's one of the other components that i see that has changed. where ron desantis has really been breaking through for these

voters. here's the number 1 name for these trump voters. they see him as trump without the baggage. they also like kristi noem, mike pompeo. what is interesting to me is all the people they like and potentially interested in moving on to, they come from the trump wing of the party. they are trumpy in their orientation. and these voters are not interested in kind of the old guard, old-school republicans like mike pence. you ask them about mike pence, you couldn't get less interest. >> it's john heilemann here. it is well done, can accurately capture the sentiment of voters, at the moment when it's done. so after a time when these hearings have been so prominent, and as you say, seeping in, not so much breaking through. and they were very much calibrated towards trying to move, the kinds of voters you're talking to. it's heartening for a lot of people, i think, that what

you're seeing is what you're seeing. the question is, where those republican voters are going to be a few months from now. and there will be a set of events, which we'll be talking about on the show. the department of justice may decide to indict donald trump. what we have seen in the past, that's not how republicans talk about donald trump now. or republicans mostly talking about trump. it suddenly becomes partisan, where a democrat attorney general may be indicting president trump. what effect do you think that will have? if it suddenly flips to an unprecedented criminal indictment that donald trump will say is partisan, driven by merrick garland, joe biden's hand-picked puppet, will that reverse people to go back on trump's side that might now be drifting away? >> reporter: yeah, it absolutely could. i mean, these voters are extremely tribal. i was doing focus groups throughout both impeachments.

and we saw that instinct to come to donald trump's defense. and i try to be really specific about this in the piece, that i've seen this shift before. you know, when trump is in hot water. and like the sort of ambient noise around him is really high, where voters drift away. but they can come back to him. and i think -- here's my guess. my guess is that he's got qualitative gene, too. he has pollsters, too. and my guess is it is informing some of his desire to get in as early as possible. it's not just his troubles. he wants everyone focused on him. because he know fist he can get everybody talking about him, just, you know, and sort of pushing on those partisan tribal instincts that, a lot of times, he can bring these voters back to his side. and it's something i try to be really clear about. it's not that his support is collapsing. it's not that these voters don't like him. in fact they do like him and the direction he pushed the party. they just have sort of

practical, political concerns. and that's why i really like this point that people make in the focus groups, because it's so obvious, so basic. but it still hasn't occurred to me, where when they say, look, if you have donald trump, you only get four years. but if you have ron desantis, or one of these other candidates, you get eight years. and that sounds so ox. but for them, it really is about wanting their tribe to be in charge. but you know, i completely agree that these are, with qualitative work it is fluid. they are a picture of how people feel in the moment. and you shouldn't take it as, oh, boy, everyone is gone from trump and never going back. >> hi, sarah. this is michael steele. i really want to pick up on that point. because for me, that is the salient part of all of this. the fact that a lot of folks, particularly in the media, want to just do the alleluia, the republicans are finally coming to their senses and moving off of trump and my attitude is no

they ain't. not at all. and you seem to bear that all. at the end, where does a desantis and pence and pompeo go? they're all sort of sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what trump does? or will these voters push one of them into the arena, to challenge trump? because it's a little bit like what we've seen in the polling on biden. yes, 75% of democrats want someone else, other than joe biden. but then when you ask them the next question, if he's the guy, will you vote for him, it's like 90% say yeah. >> reporter: i mean, here's the thing. so it is really interesting. like ron desantis. it is his name you hear with a bullet. i can't tell you how unusual it is to have a bunch of voters in ohio know who the governor of florida is. like i said, they view him as trump without the baggage.

but they you also haven't seen him on a national stage. none of us have. and we haven't seen these candidates go toe to toe with president trump. what does that look like? does trump make them look small, like he was able to do with a lot of candidates in 2016. primaries are often, they come down to math. if a bunch ever them do decide to contest the primary against trump, then there's a number of candidates. are they splitting the trump vote? consolidating that plurality who are never going to leave him and always stick with him? i still, despite the fact that i have very much seen the shift, i would not argue that trump isn't still the odds-on favorite to win a republican primary, if he does, in fact, get in the race. >> yeah, just reading some of the comments in your focus groups, it seems, by and large, republicans exhausted for donald trump, but will vote for

him again if he runs. publisher, sarah longwell. thank you for bringing ititous. sarah's new piece is online this morning for "the atlantic." next, political speeches that were never heard. ones that could have rewritten history if they were delivered. n history if they were delivered. just like we will. join the fight at alz.org/walk i'm a fancy exercise bike noobie. instructor: come on! a little more! and i'm taking a detour. and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, you could be working this out yourself. so get allstate. for too long, big pharma has been squeezing americans for every penny, and inflation has only added to the pain. but congress has a historic opportunity to deliver relief, by passing a bill to let medicare negotiate lower drug prices and put money back in the pockets of seniors. 87% of americans support the plan,

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i think the moment that is going to stick out to most people in this master class is an extraordinary one, where you sit down, and you read what you call the would-be victory speech. >> uh-huh. >> my fellow americans, today, you sent a message to the whole world. >> what compelled you to sit down and revisit that speech? >> well, i wanted to be as helpful as i could to the viewers and the process of being in a master class. so i didn't, as you know, write a concession speech. because even though we had a lot of bumps those last 10 days, i still thought we could pull it out.

so i worked on a speech that really was about my journey and had a real emphasis on my mother's life and journey. as a way of, you know, making it clear that yes, i would be the first woman president. but i, like everybody, stood on the shoulders and lived the lives and experiences of those that came before us. >> i dream of going up to her and sitting down next to her, taking her in my arms and saying "look at me," "listen to me," you will survive. you will have a good family of your own and three children. and as hard as it might be to imagine, your daughter will grow up and become the president of the united states. >> that's hillary clinton, reading from the victory speech she fully expected to deliver

on election night 2016, but of course, never did. that speech is one of several our next guest writes in about the new book "undelivered, the never-heard speemps that would have rewritten history." jeff nussbaum is a speech writer. it's interesting going through the speeches. it's spanned american and world history. how did you find and curate this list of speeches? >> yeah, well, it started election night 2000, when i was a kid speech writer for al gore. @one moment, i was holding three speeches, victory, concession, and then strangely we thought he would win electoral and lose popular. world history, where the outcome was so endowed that

there was an alternate draft prepared. and that alternate draft gifts us a brief look down a path we didn't take. >> and it just shows how close run so many events were. one that stood out to me was dwight eisenhower scripted apology. if d-day. general eisenhower wrote this, i just said the landing had been a failure and it's no one's fault but mine. i was the one who was responsible for the decision to go and all the fault belongs to me. and that's that. if it did fail, you know this, i was going into oblivion anyway, so i might as well take full responsibility. that's top of mind for me. i was at the beaches of normandy with my kids just last week and standing there. it seemed impossible that that would succeed, but they did full it off. tell us more about that speech

that was never delivered by general eisenhower. >> he had a habit before be engagement into battle, he would write an apology for his failure. and in that draft, which was very short. he wrote it in haste. he actually misdated it. one of the fun things to see is he edits a line. he has a line that says, the troops have withdrawn. and he changes it to i have withdrawn the troops. and those of us who remember grammar, he takes the passive voice and takes active. he underlines, mine alone. it's just the example of language of leader. of the fact that leader take responsibility. leaders don't say "something happened," they say "i made this happen" or "i didn't make this happen" so even in this momentous military event, he takes the time to imagine failure and take responsibility for it. and by the way, after the d-day was a success, he folded it up, put it in his wallet, forgot

about it, found it weeks later, tossed it in the trash and his aide basically said, this one is a keeper. >> wow. what a great story. mike barnicle, we have been talking so much about what president trump did and did not say january 6th. and he has in his book resignation speech. saying i believed to be serving the best interest of country. when i believed those best interests were served by fighting to retain office, i fought to retain it. now i believe they would best be served by my leaving office. from richard nixon. that's a draft of a speech. >> there are amazing portraits of history that never happened in this book. and jeff, i'm curious how you selected what you selected. what else you left on the table. what else is out there? and specifically, did you ever

run acrossing from from lynden johnson's tenure, that if he had given a speech about vietnam that could have changed, really changed history? >> so i get this question a lot. and in truth, there are a lot of cases where i just looked for bread crumbs, wherever i could find them. and sometimes those bread crumbs led to a brick wall. i know there was a speech prepared for the failure of the camp david accords, where president carter was going to put the blame at the feet of the israeliies. i know where the draft was, i know the person who wrote it. and it's just disappeared. not to sound too donald rumsfeldian. but there are some. some folks have reached out to me. i did not come across any lynden johnson. but that's probably only for lack of me to find the thread to begin pulling.

>> jeff, you've also gone around the world. and you have the speech from emperor hirohito from the end of the world war. and he wanted to deliver some kind of apology for the war. but he wasn't allowed to by general macarthur. why not? >> yeah. so this is a fascinating episode. he was really heartsick, when he began to see what had happened to his country, what he led his country into. so he wanted to apologize. and we, macarthur, as you say, didn't want him to do it. we wanted the emperor seal of approval on our occupation. and there was something where if the emperor resigned or admitted he was fal ableible, apologized because she was supposed to be a deity, the fear was that the japanese would rise up and fight again. so macarthur felt it convenient to have the emperor and power and kept him there. and the draft, translated for

the first time in english. we see a word that japan has never used before or since to describe world war ii that aprox mates to crisis, we in ts country and generation are by test know rather than by choice the watchmen on the walls of the world freedom. we ask we may be worthy of our power and responsibility that we may exercise our strength with wisdom and restraint and achieve in our time and for all-time the ancient vision of peace on earth, goodwill toward men. the righteousness of our cause must always underlie our strength. except the lord keep the city, the watchmen wakeeth but in vain. thank goodness he didn't have to deliver that speech after conducting an air strike in cuba that may have set off a hot war rather than a cold one. >> that's the speech that john f. kennedy was working on when

he was assassinated in dallas. that speech is interesting because it there's a warning about domestic misinformation can hobble a country. kennedy makes two appearances in the book. air strikes in cuba he was prepared to order or he had a speech describing basically that he had ordered 800 air strikes on cuba during the cuban missile crisis and in that speech, there's this terrifying parenthetical where is says follows a description of first reports of action, basically a hole in the speech that says we're going to fill it in later with what happens after these air strikes and only in retrospect do we realize it could have, that the missiles, many of them were already active and it could have launched indeed a nuclear war, so kennedy sort of has one speech where he didn't go down this path that could have ended the world, and then the tail end of the book, the last chapter, the speeches people were working on when they

died, einstein and poem pius and fdr, kennedy has this incredible warning not just america's role in the world but what can weaken america internally. he puts his finger on dramatically is misinformation. >> a couple of kennedy speeches in there got our signals crossed up there but you did a good job explaining both. >> i'm loath to correct you. i never want to correct you. >> no, no, you were absolutely right in that case. thank you for that and they're both extraordinary. the new book is "undelivered, the never-heard speeches that would have made history." jeff nussbaun, thank you, we appreciate it. the state department has an offer to bring on the table brittany xwriner and another american jailed in russia. we'll talk with the former ambassador of the united states to russia, mike mcfaul. isn't that right phil? i'm in the metaverse, bundling my home and auto insurance.

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welcome back to "morning joe." president biden out of isolation, back to work in the west wing after testing negative for covid and speaking to the. of china in just about 30 minutes. in a memo yesterday the president's doctor described him as being fever-free and off all medications to control his symptoms. the president tested negative twice, once tuesday night, again yesterday morning. bide andresed a group of staffers in the rose garden where he credited his recovery to the government's investment in testing, treatment and vaccines. >> you can avoid winding up with a severe case. you can now prevent most covid deaths and that's because three free tools my administration invested in and distributed this past year, booster shots, at-home tests, easy-to-use, effective treatments. we've got through covid with no fear. i got through it with no fear. when my predecessor got covid, he had to get helicoptered to

walter reed medical center. he was severely ill. thankfully he recovered. when i got covid, i worked from outstairs in the white house in the offices upstairs and for about a five-day period. the difference is vaccinations, of course, but also three new tools, free to all and widely available. >> president biden in the rose garden yesterday, as i mentioned that call with the president xi getting busy in about 30 minutes. still ahead, we are about 30 minutes from the release of second quarter gdp numbers. andrew ross sorkin will break them down. and mike mcfall talks about the possible prisoner swap. plus the now democratic nominee for maryland governor, wes moore joins us after surviving a crowded primary.

is he preparing to face off his election-denying republican opponent? we'll speak to wes moore when "morning joe" comes right back. , the more you save like rachel here how am i looking? the most cautious driver we got am i there? looking good (phone chimes) safe driving and drivewise saves you 40% with allstate finding the perfect designer isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found her. she's in austin between a fresh bowl of matcha and a fresh batch of wireframes. and you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com

8:00 on the dot as you look at a live picture of capitol hill. they've been busy at work. it is thursday, july 28th. welcome back to "morning joe." we're about 30 minutes away from the key report on the economy that could signal whether the united states is technically in a recession. the gdp numbers are straight ahead. new developments from capitol hill. democrats getting a political victory they believe on a spending bill and now republicans are threatening to retaliate by pulling support for a separate bill they had helped to pass. we'll help to explain that one. we'll speak with the democratic nominee for maryland governor wes moore, a rising

star in the party who is set to take on a republican backed by donald trump. jonathan he will mere, mike barnicle, kathy k. and jonathan steele with us, after a year and a half of negotiations, joe manchin of west virginia has reached a deal with party leaders to pass a number of democratic agenda items through the process of reconciliation. in a statement yesterday, manchin wrote in part "this bill will cut the inflation taxes americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs and ensure our country invests in the energy, security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination." we'll tick through some of the specifics on that bill and whether democrats think they have the votes to get it through. they'll need senator sinema, for example. the senate yesterday passed a sweeping package to boost u.s. computer chip production to help stay competitive with china. 17 republicans joined all democratic voting members to

pass that bill. however, republican leaders in the senate now are urging house members to vote against that bill if retaliation for the manchin/schumer deal on reconciliation. so jonathan lemiere, help our viewers make sense. they get on board 17 republicans with the big package on chips plus which will help americans stay competitive against china and make some of those computer chips, the processing chips here in the united states, and then a few hours later, when they hear that democrats perhaps now are going to push through this massive bill for the biden administration on reconciliation, they say wait, we don't like that. we're going to retaliate by asking republicans in the house to submarine the chips plus bill we just voted to pass in the senate. >> it doesn't happen often but mitch mcconnell appears to publicly have been played. a couple weeks ago senator manchin suggested there's no deal for there would be no sig

consistent reconciliation so mcconnell gave the okay for the chips bill. house republicans said they'd support it, too. the white house has given its blessing, now we see mcconnell and other senate republicans going across to their colleagues in the house, you have to oppose something you previously just a few days ago were for and also have to explain that vote if this bill goes down, seem to be beneficial to chi in a. it's a spiteful action. democrats think they can get through anyway and willie to your point on the senate side for the reconciliation package senator sinema has been shall we say an enigma to a lot of democrats and a lot of votes aren't certain. not only would this give democrats a huge victory ahead of the midterms and get their priorities in play here before november, willie but a big win for president biden. we have to really think about his first two years in office very differently, a series of

substantial achievements. >> extraordinary joe manchin got on board after he's been standing in the way of so many initiatives on climate change the white house wanted to get through, lowering the cost of prescription drugs and wish list items that could pass through the senate. abc news is reporting that cassidy hutchinson, the former aide to mark meadows now is cooperating with the justice department's investigation into january 6th, according to abc, the doj reached out to hutchinson last month after her explosive testimony before the house select committee. the extent of her cooperation is not yet clear. nbc news has not confirmed this reporting as yet. this all comes after we learned yesterday former president trump's actions leading up to january 6th also are part of the department of justice criminal probe, again, john, yong this is surprising given cassidy hutchinson's testimony before the select committee that the doj would want to speak with

her. >> not surprising at all of the many powerful rebelatory last month, hers was the very top of the list, the biggest bombshell in a sense was the hearing that planned to do the committee until she decided to come forward and so she's obviously at the top of the doj's list. she was in the room with mark meadows, someone of great interest to the doj, to anyone who wants to present indictments against donald trump or mark meadows himself. she's as close to the molten core of what's going on in the white house, the molten core is donald trump's brain and not surprising she's cooperating. she had to cross the rubicon. she was represented for many months a lawyer affiliated

trumpist maga lawyer who she parted company with late in the spring. that made her suddenly available to the committee, liz cheney brought her along in the process. now she crossed that rubicon and went on national television and today facing bashlash against those in the trump base. once you've gone national on trf, you might as well cooperate with the doj. mike barnicle and i talked about this. this is all about lemiere right now. >> as it should be. >> and the orange book. >> they're all over. >> i can't find them. >> there it is. now you're good. >> i'll hold it up there. "the big lie" john than lemiere incredible book on this topic. >> thank you. >> the big news this week, mike, what is the doj going to do? the committee laid it out, part of their purpose was political

and part was legal. put the pressure on the doj. jonathan on my podcast said not just the white house but joe biden himself is frustrated at what he's seen out of the doj. let's go, guys. there's a case to be made here and now it appears according to the colleagues at "the washington post" and other reporting that it's actually happening. how monumental it is, the doj will finally put the bit between its teeth? >> first of all, there's so much more that we don't know about the department of justice investigation than what we do know. we know that it's been slow. it's been thorough. the cassidy news today is probably an indication that it's been plotting. the interesting thing about that news that we just dropped via abc news is now, at this point, why is she being called in now? had they not heard of her prior to this? like months ago?

they probably have, but it's interesting, but it gets back to the heart of the investigation, and i do believe that it is a very thorough investigation. i do believe that we don't know a lot about what's going on compared to what we do know, and i do believe we're going to be surprised very shortly. >> it's hard to imagine she wasn't on the radar. to be fair, she became a surprise at the january 6th hearing as well but i think it's become clear to your point it's like an iceberg. we only see a little bit above the water of the department of justice probe. there's more going on and the white house is respecting the boundaries between the executive office and the department of justice. they're not publicly pressuing it. we heard the private frustrations and it's interesting the timing in the last week or two, willie, as merrick garland started to give a speech last week, he sat down with lester holt, this week made it clear even displaying a little frustration saying look, hey, we got this, and stressing

over and over and over, no one is above the law, even if it is a former president, even if that person might be the 2024 gop favorite, even if indeed the country tears apart, no one's above the law. we'll see this through. >> he says "without fear or favor" he told lester holt when he pressed him, does that mean donald trump? he said "anyone without fear or favor." let's turn to one of the most closely-watched races this fall and comes out of the state of maryland, where a political newcomer is now the democrat nominee in the race for governor. wes moore, a veteran of the war in afghanistan beat out a crowded democratic primary field, one that included some of the best-known figures inspect state like former dnc chair tom perez and maryland's long time comptroller peter frencha. moore will face hard right candidate conspiracy theorist dan cox in november. the governor's association boosted cox's profile with an ad

that described him as "too close to trump." take a look. >> 100% pro-life, he's fighting to end abortion in maryland, and cox will protect the second amendment at all costs, refusing to support any federal restrictions on guns. >> the tactic of helping far-right candidates win primaries has been crypt sized as dangerous by some democrats and republicans, including maryland governor larry hogan. he says he will not back cox despite his being the party nominee. >> spent about $3 million. the guy only spent $100,000 in his campaign so it was a win for the democrats. it's a big loss for the republican party and we have no chance of saving that governor seat. we had a chance if they hadn't gotten together and done that. >> you definitely won't support him? >> no, i would not support the guy. i wouldn't let him in the governor's office let alone vote for him in the governor's office. >> governor hogan did not reject

the idea of supporting our hex guest, the democratic nominee for governor of maryland, wes moore. congratulations on the nomination. as i mentioned, a crowded field. you've been at this for a long time, some better-known names nationally and in the state who had an awful lot of support in this race. how did you come out of that ten-person field? >> well, i think we built an unparalleled coalition and unparalleled coalition focusing on the things that people were telling us were the most important issues in their own lives which was the economy and which was public safety. we ran our campaign with a core focus on creating pathways for work and wages and wealth and a platform for people to feel safe in their own communities and home and skin and built a race that focused on something i learned when i was in the military when i was 17 years old, leave no one behind and that is the vision that we laid out and i think it was one that resonated with maryland voters. >> so wes, there's been this

almost quiet celebration among democrats that dan cox with their help became the republican nominee. they think he's too extreme and too crazy and he can't win. i know you a little bit so i know that you probably don't agree that he can't win, that you're taking this seriously, but what do you make of the way that democrats propped him up? >> well, first you're right, william. we cannot take this lightly. this is a celebratory moment and we're excited about the campaign we've run but this is also very sobering. we're literally talking about we're running against an insurrectionist, someone who paid for buses to go down january 6th, someone who believes to this day that donald trump is the president of the united states, someone who tried to impeach larry hogan, and so we're taking this very seriously and i think people make a mistake by underestimating him. i think the other thing, though, is the idea that he won because of an ad that was pulled together i think is also a pit short-sighted, because first of

all, the ad the dga ran which was describing dan cox was accurate and it was true. there was nothing in there that was incorrect nor nothing in there dan cox wouldn't defend. the second thing is candidates have to win their own races on their own merits, and i think part of the reason why the people think the people who were surprised at our race they weren't spending time in communities. if you spend time in communities, if you spend time in our neighborhoods, if you spend time in all 24 jurisdictions in the state of maryland, i think people would look and see that what we saw with our race was not a surprise, the fact that we surged and were able to win but people say the same thing about dan cox. we cannot take this threat lightly. it is serious and our campaign will be such. >> it's katty kay here. people think of maryland and the republican party as larry

hoganesque. this was a battle between hogan's version and cox's version of the donald trump party. has maryland become a dan cox type state, and would that state vote for wes moore? >> i think this is a state that cares about a lot of the kitchen table issues that a lot of people around the country are thinking about. what we continue to hear from people is people are concerned about the price of things. people want to know that your governor is going focus on getting people back to work, why we made a central component of our campaign things like fixing a broken child care system, one of the core ways we can get people back to work and particularly women who oftentimes have been trapped and left out of a workforce because we have a broken child care system. it's people who are concerned about the fact that we don't have proper public

transportation, where i led one of the largest poverty fighting organizations in this country and we invested tens of millions of dollars in job training programs but the reality is if a person can't get to the job, then what's the point? i think people were concerned about having a world class education system and education system that's helping our children to become not just employees but employers, focusing on mental health for educators and also for students so i think what we are seeing in the state of maryland is people are focused on making sure that they have a governor that can focus on them and not just simply believe to swallow wholeheartedly the ideology of donald trump or anyone else and that's why we believe we'll be successful in the general election as well. >> we've got the perfect person to talk about this race, michael steele, former lieutenant governor of the state of maryland. michael, i'll let you take a question to wes. let's talk about him like he's not here for a minute. what do you make of him in this race and the republican nominee

dan cox, his opponent? >> i think it's going to be a fascinating race. i've known wes for a long time. he's a good brother. i think he's going to be, you know, bring an interesting dynamic to the table, but i think katy put her finger on an interesting point. maryland is not as liberal as a loft of people believe it to be. we have strong conservative sections of the state from baltimore county to western parts, the shore. it's a matter of how wes begins to talk to those voters. baltimore county is a big play. montgomery county, yes, liberal bashing but there's some conservative threats on the fiscal front, so the question for wes would be, you've got a fairly aggressive agenda. you have big plans but the federal payments are not going to be there, you're losing substantial income there. you've got a very progressive legislature that wants to spend to high heaven, one of the big

battles larry hogan and the comptroller had to battle up against. how do you juxtapose your agenda against an overzealous legislature that thinks oh, now we've got a democrat. we've been out of power for eight years. here is the laundry list of things that we want to do from raising taxes to spending for programs as the state's economy begins to contract because of inflation, because of rising prices. yes, wages are going up but not at the same rate. we've got the federal system as a part of our economy, but it's the federal system. it's not state. so how are you looking at going into that conversation with voters this fall and then on the other side, as governor, laying down some lines for a democratic legislature that may be excited to see you, thinking that you're just going to give them the pen to write whatever check they

want? >> no, thanks, michael, great seeing you. i tell you, i think about the way we campaigned in the primary and there's going to be no difference in the way we campaigned in the general. people were saying even during the primary and you know, we're campaigning all over the state, a lot of places that there weren't a lot of democrats. people were like you guys are campaigning in a lot of places even when there's not a lot of democrats and my point back to him was there are a lot of marylanders there and i plan on being their governor, too, and we're proud of the fact that we're able to win not just baltimore city and baltimore county but also we're able to win over the eastern shore. we're able to win in a lot of different, diverse places that oftentimes democrats have not performed. when we were having conversations with people, i remember having conversations with a group of small business owners in dundock and you know there's not a lot of democrats in dundock, i was giving them my plan for small businesses how we

want to have economic growth and recruit and retain. they said i love what you're saying but i'm on the other side. i said what does that mean? it just means i'm a republican. i said to him, do you know a question i never once asked my soldiers when i was leading paratroopers in afghanistan, what is your political party. i never asked questions when i ran a successful small business in maryland. how did you vote in the last election? it wasn't something that got brought up so you're absolutely right. people are focused on their economic stability in this situation and i think that we have come up with not just the most practical but really aggressive policies on how to create work and wages and wealth, creating a service year option for every single high school graduate, making sure we have job train and job placement and investing heavily in apprenticeship and trade programs, getting people back to work with fair wages. i think that's the thing that's resonating and honestly a thing

i think people care about most of a general election as well. >> wes, full disclosure here for the viewers. i've known you for a while and i like you a lot. so my question to you is, given your experiences, your life experiences, some of which you've mentioned, what you picked up in starting a small business, what you picked up and learned in afghanistan, what you learned about yourself, what have you learned about yourself during the course of this short campaign traveling across the state, back and forth, meeting people, what have you picked up about yourself that you think was value-added? >> hopefully smart enough to reject the barnacle endorsement, thanks but no thanks, mike. >> [ laughs ] a few things. one is i have an amazing family

and i don't know how i could have done it without them, starting with my remarkable wife and our kids who have been so brilliant and unaffected by all of this. and my mom and entire family. the other thing i've learned, too, barnacle, so much of this stuff, politics is like an open book test where the people are giving you the answers. you just have to listen. and i think that when i think about my not just professional experiences but my life experiences, i think people are looking for someone who understands and doesn't just sympathize but empathizes what people are going through. i share with people and people learn i lost my father when i was months from my 4th birthday, he died in front of me because he didn't get the health care that he needed or the first time i felt handcuffs on my wrist in

11 years old because we came up in areas that were overpoliced or when my mother didn't get her first job with benefits until i was 14 years old, and by the way, this is a woman with a masters degree and so when we're having conversations about inequitable pay between men and women or inequity between people of color and non. this doesn't need to be a white paper. i've seen it. we pride ourselves we outworked everybody in the field. we earned everything. nothing was given to us but i think that mattered when people saw you were willing to show up that you were willing to go to the neighborhoods and talk about their issues because if you just sat with them, they were giving you the answers. and they just needed to understand that you didn't just empathize with their situation but that could you empathize with it, because you're going to bring a different sense of urgency to trying to solve it and that's something i've been

inspared by over these past 14 months on the campaign trail. >> the country will be watching closely this three-month or so sprint to election day, wes moore likely giving credit where it's due the victory to his wife, dawn. the democratic nominee for governor of maryland, wes moore. thanks for being here. good to see you. >> great to see you. still ahead on "morning joe" the latest on the effort to secure wnba star brittney griner's release from russia. we'll take a look at who may be on the table when it comes to a potential prisoner exchange. plus, we'll go live to capitol hill on the heels of that surprise deal between majority leader chuck schumer and senator joe manchin on key parts of the democratic agenda. ahead president biden said we're not headed into a recession. we'll get a better sense of whether that's true when a ju gdp report comes out in a few minutes. we'll be right back. ncial plan.

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after nearly a year and a half of on and off negotiations, joe manchin of west virginia reached a deal with party leaders to pass a number of democratic agenda items through the reconciliation process. in a statement yesterday manchin wrote in part "this bill will cut the inflation taxes americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination." he went on "it is time to put away the partisan swords and advance legislation that is in the best interests of the future of this nation and the american people we all represent, not just one party." we bring in co-founder punch bowl news jake sherman, also an msnbc political contributor. jake, i said at the top of the show this surprised much of washington. were you surprised that this deal came to be between joe

manchin and chuck schumer? joe manchin made furious democrats across washington and the congress by rejecting much of what he approved yesterday. how did this happen? >> i was shocked, i was sitting in my desk in the capitol and got this email, what is this? the manchin and schumer kept this incredibly close to the vest for which they deserve a lot of credit, a tremendous amount of credit, but joe manchin told us last week, he was staying at the table. he was negotiating and we didn't believe him because he says that all the time and usually the deals fall apart but willie, this is huge. this is giving the opportunity to the biden administration and to senate majority leader chuck schumer and senate democrats the opportunity to enact much of their agenda, climate change provisions, tax provisions, everything that they've been talking about for two years and by the way, schumer got a lot of flack for, for being too timid,

and as did manchin for that matter, and it's just a massive, massive temporary victory for democrats to even get a deal with manchin on this. by the way, manchin's in covid quarantine. we talked to him yesterday for this morning's edition about what kind of came together, how this came together and he said that schumer came back to him and said let's just do a deal. let's scrub this thing, get rid of everything you don't like and let's put this through. so now this begins, willie, a mad rush to be honest with you through august to get this through the house, through the senate and to the president's desk and republicans are going to say it's a tax increase during a soft economy, and there is truth to that. it does increase taxes t gets rid of the carried interest loophole that hedge funds and private equity folks have relied on for many years. it institutes a corporate minimum tax, but democrats feel

like on the other end it raises revenue, it enacts a huge swathe of their priorities. >> it raises taxes but it's a 15% corporate tax, a minimum corporate tax. >> correct. >> this has lowering prescription drug costs, a lot of the wish lists the widen administration has had for some time and progressives had for many years. in a 50/50 senate will they pass through reconciliation, they need every one of the 50 votes and kamala harris to break the tie. that opens the question to kyrsten sinema who was notably not a part of these negotiations. do you suspect she's going to go along with this? >> it's a real big question. joe manchin made the case the tax hikes are so narrow on corporations that do not pay a 15% minimum tax, that have a $15 billion book value, which is, in his telling, is very few companies and basically companies that are not paying

their fair share. it doesn't increase marginal rates. it doesn't increase rates on individuals or pass-throughs. it is simply this corporate tax hike. so he feels confident she should come along. a bunch of priorities are in here. there's a 9:00 a.m. democratic caucus meeting this morning in which this will be discussed. sinema is usually want to -- she keeps her guard close to the vest until she has something to say, but my guess here today, willie, is yes, she will get on board. i don't think she wants to be as one democrat put it to me yesterday the skunk at the garden party, but we'll have to see. it also faces long odds in the house, willie. pelosi has, speaker nancy pelosi has a four-seat cushion to get this through and it will be difficult but if i'm sitting here today and i'm a gambling man, i would imagine they get this through sometime in august. >> it will be extraordinary achievement for this

administration if they get it through. also fascinating, jake, as you've been reporting this morning, because of what else happened in washington yesterday, the senate yesterday also passed a sweeping package to boost u.s. computer chip production to stay competitive with china. $80 billion over the next decade. 17 republicans joined all democratic voting members to get the chips act over the finish line. this passes first, so they get that through the senate. 17 republicans on board, jake. and then all of a sudden they spring this announcement from joe manchin that oh, by the way, we're also passing this massive package through reconciliation to which senate republicans said wait a minute, we didn't know about that, so now reports have it and i think you do as well that senate republicans who voted for the chips plus bill are whipping house republicans to vote against it out of spite for the reconciliation package. do i have that right? >> yes, that's right. willie, it's actually worse than that. the only reason republicans

agreed to pass the chips package because reconciliation was theoretically off the table, this kind of reconciliation was off the table. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell got worked and john cornyn, the lead sponsor of the chips bill. quite frankly, it's a black eye for them. i don't think they're going to be able to stop this chips aboutily from passing and even if they stop it from passing it's self-defeating. republicans understand this needs to get through and they'd be punishing chip manufacturers and national security if they killed it in the house, but progressives are lining up behind this in the house because of that reconciliation process and democrats are confident they'll be able to get it through today. >> jake sherman, such an interesting day on washington, more ahead. thanks for being up early with us. coming up the new issue of "time" magazine, is brittney griner and the fight for free tom. we'll talk to admiral james stavrides about that and the

potential prisoner swap to free her from jail. ree her from jail. but congress has a historic opportunity to deliver relief, by passing a bill to let medicare negotiate lower drug prices and put money back in the pockets of seniors. 87% of americans support the plan, and applaud the senators who are standing up to big pharma. let's make history. vote yes to let medicare negotiate lower drug prices.

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secretary of state antony blinken says the united states has made a substantial offer to russia to bring brittney griner and another american jailed in russia back home. nbc news chief washington correspondent andrea mitchell has the details. >> reporter: with brittney griner caged in a russian court, testifying for the first time in her own defense, the secretary of state going public about a deal to bring her and another american, paul whalen, home, calling it a top priority. >> we put a sun standial proposal on the table weeks ago to facilitate their release. >> reporter: that proposal trading viktor bout an arms dealer known as the merchant of death serving a 25-year sentence in the u.s. for the americans. two sources familiar tell nbc news. what is the prospect of getting paul whalen and brittney griner out by making such a big trade, arguably over the opposition of the justice department. >> i can't and won't get into

any of the details of what we propose to the russians over the course of so many weeks now. the president's prepared to make tough decisions, if it means the safe return of americans. >> reporter: griner holding pictures of her wife and teammates explaining she didn't know that cannabis prescribed back home for medical use was in her luggage, facing questions from russian prosecutors and the russian judge. >> i was in a rush packing. like i said, i was recovering from covid. stress of packing, making sure i had my covid tests, jet lag, and i was in a rush throwing my stuff into my bag. >> reporter: the wnba star telling the judge when she arrived in russia five months ago she was held for hours without a lawyer, interrogated in russian using her phone to try to google translate. she says she was made to sign documents without knowing what she was signing. >> no, my rights were never read to me. no one explained any of it to me. >> reporter: griner has pleaded

guilty to the charges against her and faces up to ten years in prison. her legal team hoping her testimony will help her get a more lenient sentence. >> andrea mitchell reporting there. joining, retired four-star navy admiral james stavrides, also is chief international security and diplomacy analyst for nbc news and msnbc. admiral, good morning. it's good to see you. these are obviously never easy decisions, there's no equivalent against brittney griner having some trace marijuana in her bag and arms dealer who has been in jail already in the united states for seven years but as you and i talked about on this show, if you want to bring her and paul whalen home, it may come at that price. >> indeed, and you know, there's obvious, wonderful upside here, getting brittney griner and paul whalen and hopefully constructing other similar deals. i think there are over 40 americans who are unlawfully illegally immorally detained

overseas, so this puts momentum under that idea, that's a good thing. the bad news, is viktor bout is bad news. if you're not familiar with him, google him, b-o-u-t. he's not only an arms dealer, he has american brood on his hands. when i was commander of u.s. southern command he was captured in 2008 and we were celebrating because he was the one supplying weapons to the farc, the terrorists in colombia, killing americans, and so as tony blinken said, these are never easy decisions. the president has to weigh this, but i think he is doing everything he can to bring these americans home understandbally. >> admiral, we certainly hope all of us that this deal is consummated, despite the vile russian in federal prison here. i'd like to talk to you about ukraine, though, what's going on in ukraine.

have you been surprised at all by the sort of pathetic logistical expertise or lack of expertise the russian army has displayed over the months that this war has been going on? >> i was a bit surprised at the beginning of this thing, mike, but as it's gone on, the russians have simply shown very little appetite or inclination to improve, and that is true not only in the failing logistics efforts but also to continue these manifest war crimes, their battle plans are ridiculously bad as a general proposition. now, however, they have concentrated their forces in the southeast, that makes them more formidable, it makes their logistics easier, the challenges remain. bottom line, we need to keep doing what we're doing, which is providing the tools to the ukrainians, these new high mars

surface-to-surface missiles are striking, mike, at those logistic logheads behind forward lines. that's a very good thing. we need to give them more anti-ship cruise missiles. final thought here, we need to be putting jets in the hands of the ukraines. a lot of serious discussion about training them to fly american aircraft, including the f-16, not that complicated a jet. it could make a big difference as the ukrainians say closing their skies. >> retired four-star navy admiral james stavrides covering a lot of grouped for us this morning. thanks so much. coming up, john eastman was at the center of a plan to overturn the 2020 election. now federal prosecutors have a warrant to search his phone. details on that straight ahead on "morning joe." e.

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the republican national committee is reportedly telling former president trump it will

stop paying his legal bills if he announces a bid for re-election. since of october of 2021 the rnc is paying close to $2 million for trump's legal representation as he faces personal lawsuits and government investigations, but an rnc official tells abc news, those payments annance of pages would stop. citing the neutrality policy, barring it from taking sides from a presidential primary. both the rnc and representatives for trump declined abc's request for comment. meanwhile, wisconsin gubernatorial race is shaping up to be another face-off between trump and mike pence. pence announced he's endorsing rebecca clay fish after trump said he would hold a rally for tim michaels. this republican primary will be held on august 9th. they were both in arizona stumping for competing candidates. so this develop continues.

this is a fascinating dynamic, michael steele, between president trump and his former vice president who have broken far apart since january 6. how do you see this playing out, donald trump will pledge feet and mikence pence said he's behind the conservative candidates. it is different in every state. but what does this dynamic look like. >> i think it represents an interesting shift in the way that the party is trying to now sort of regain its footing in these primaries. you know, it actually speaks of certain competitive nature. the vice president's endorsing this candidate over here, trump is endorsing the one over there. now, let the best candidate win, i guess. but it also said how much pence is willing to press from inside of the party to make his case for the brand of republicanism that he wants to move into 2024

with. he thinks the old brand of looking backwards is not going to work. in a competitive market in '24 politically, he's trying to gain that ground, if you will, to sort of get an upper hand. so it is interesting to see how this plays out. this is less about whose candidate wins and more about the fact that pence is actually challenging in the first instance. and actually making a press for his brand of republicanism, you know -- the rnc piece, i don't know why the hell rnc is still paying trump's legal bills. that is what you're doing with donor money. so this is something that is interesting to watch. how the elements that have tied trump and the party together, largely because trump wants to exact a price from the party, for whatever he brings to the

table, which is not much in terms of electoral success, we lost the house and the senate and the white house. but it does say how now leaders in the party are beginning to try to find a track or lane they could get on to press a different argument. now, the beneficiary of this could be someone like desantis, and it could also open up a lane for republicans like a larry hogan to at least begin to make a case. we'll see. >> coming up, what this morning's gdp report said about the economy and the threat of recession. we'll go live to cnbc. plus stephanie ruhle joinsous conversation. the very latest from wall street straight ahead on "morning joe."

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york city. welcome back to "morning joe." i'm willy geist. let's get to the bracking economic numbers. the second quarter gdp numbers just release pd and they show another contraction for the second quarter which could signal the u.s. economy is in recession. after the federal reserve raised interest rates again yesterday with the fed chair saying the path to avoiding recession is narrowed. let's bring in senior business analyst and host of the 11th hour on msnbc, stephanie ruhle, and katty kay and mike barnical with us. let's gig into this. janet yellen and powell said this is not what a recession looks like with jobs available to people but yes, inflation at a 40-year high and by some definitions as you know better than most, this does show, the new number on the gdp, that the economy is in recession. so what is the word.

>> it is a very complicated situation. listen, people don't like toe hear that the kpi is shrinking. but remember by raising rates, that is what jay powell is trying to do. and to simply say, we have a good economy, or we have a bad economy, come on willie, we have to remember what is causing inflation. you have a war in ukraine. we have supply chain issues that are still lingering from covid. this is complicating things. but you just laid out a few of the points. when you normally have a contracting economy, you don't have sizable wage growth or unemployment as low as it is. you'll see help wanted, help wanded, help wanded. and people are concerned house prices are softer, they are still above pre-pandemic levels and just eye few months ago we were hoping to get some relief in the housing market. so what we have on our hands is a complicated confusing economy. i know politicians don't like that because that doesn't work on a billboard when you want to beat the other side up, but that is what we've got.

>> and inflation obviously plays into this. if it is a semantic game almost. if you're in a recession or not, as if you're running a small business and you can't find anybody to work in your shop and it feels like a recession. >> willie, that is exactly it. so when you go consumer confidence is down, of course it is down. go purchase anything and things are more expensive. so naturally one would feel that way. what we need to do right now is figure out what people need to do to be saving because what we're heading into, more than anything, is uncertain times. but to say that this administration isn't addressing things, they are. whether you're talking about chips or broadband, lowering the price of pharmaceuticals, you're actually seeing democrats try to make moves that will make life easier and more affordable for the american people. and while it is easy for republicans to beat on the inflation b