bill is long overdue and it helps us take decisive action on the climate crisis and leads for the world by example. inflation hawks like larry summers said this bill is, quote, fighting inflation, let me say it, this bill is fighting inflation. progressive leaders like senator elizabeth warren said, quote, this is a bill that truly is about fighting inflation, bringing down the costs for families and putting our country on a sounder economic footing. here's how it works. first, the bill finally delivers on a promise that washington has made for decades to the american people. we're giving medicare, we're giving medicare the power to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices, which means seniors and consumers will pay less for their prescription drugs. medicare will save in the process about $290 billion, and

in addition it also changes the circumstances for people on medicare by putting a cap of a maximum $2,000 a year, they'll have to pay no more than $2,000 a year, no matter how many prescriptions they have for all the prescription drugs, which is especially important for people with cancer and long-term diseases. it's a godsend. it will literally be a godsend for many families. second, the bill locks in place lower health care premiums for the next three years for millions of families that get coverage under the affordable care act. that will mean an average savings of $800 a year for 13 million people. third, it invests $369 billion, granted i called for $500 plus, but it invests $369 billion to secure energy future and address the climate crisis, bringing down family energy bills by

hundreds of dollars, by providing working families tax credits. it gives folks rebates to buy new and efficient appliances, to weatherize their homes, and tax credits for heat pumps and rooftop solar. it also gives consumers a tax credit to buy any electric vehicle or fuel cell vehicle, new or used. and a tax credit for up to $7,500 if those vehicles were made in america. this investment in environmental justice is real. it also provides tax credits that will create thousands of good-paying jobs, manufacturing jobs, clean energy construction projects, solar projects, clean hydrogen projects, and more by giving tax credits for those who build these projects here in america. let me be clear, this bill would be the most significant legislation in history to tackle

the climate crisis and improve our energy security right away. now, give us a tool to meet the climate goals that are set that we've agreed to by cutting emissions and accelerating clean energy, a huge step forward. fourth, this bill requires the largest corporations to begin to pay toward their fair share in taxes, by putting in place a 15% corporate minimum tax. i know you've never heard me say this before, it will come as a shock to you. but 55 of the fortune 500 companies paid no federal income tax in 2020. you've only heard me say that about 10,000 times, but the fact is they paid no taxes of income of over $40 billion. guess what? this bill ends that. they're going to have to pay a minimum of 15% tax on that $40 billion or whatever the number turns out to be.

fifth, this package will reduce the federal deficit by over $300 billion. already on my watch deficits come down in my first year by $350 billion and a record $1.7 trillion at the end of this fiscal year. now, this bill is going to keep that progress going. yes, i'll say it again, this legislation will bring down the deficit, bring down the deficit. the sixth point i want to make is this bill will not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000. i promise, a promise i made during the campaign and one that i've kept. look, i know it can sometimes seem like nothing gets done in washington. i know it never crosses any of your minds. but the work of the government can be slow and frustrating, and sometimes even infuriating. then the hard work of hours and days and months from people who

refused to give up pays off. history is made, lives are changed. with this legislation we're facing up to some of our biggest problems and we're taking a giant step forward as a nation. that didn't just happen on this inflation reduction bill. it also happened yesterday when the senate made the bipartisan decision as a nation to invest in america's manufacturing technology of semiconductors and additional funding for basic research and development in the cutting-edge industries of the 21st century. if the house passes this bill, and i want to thank speaker pelosi, i think she's going to get it done, for her leadership here, it has added to the benefit -- it has the added benefit of creating tens of thousands of additional good-paying jobs, lowering inflation, giving us the ability not only to compete with china for the future, but to lead the world and win the economic

competition of the 21st century. you've heard me say 1,000 times we have to investment in research, development and growth. i hope the house is going to pass this bill today. my plea is, put politics aside, get it done. we need to lower the cost of automobiles, appliances, smartphones, consumer electronics and so much more. and you can't do it, all of these things are powered, most everything in our lives are powered by these semiconductors and tiny computer chips the size of a fingernail tip. we should pass this today and get moving. i know the compromise on the inflation bill doesn't include everything i've been pushing for since i got to office. for example, i'm going to keep fighting in the future to bring down the cost of things for working families and middle class families that matter, by providing for affordable and accessible things like affordable child care, affordable eldercare, preschool,

the cost of preschool, housing, keeping students and helping students with the cost of college, closing the health care coverage gap. it's a fancy way of saying health care coverage gap, expanding medicaid in states that refuse to do it and more. look, this bill is far from perfect. it's a compromise. but that's often how progress is made, by compromises. and the fact is that my message to congress is this, this is the strongest bill you can pass, it will lower inflation, cut the deficit, reduce health care costs, tackle the climate crisis and promote energy security. all the time while reducing the burdens facing working class and middle class families. so pass it. pass it for the american people. pass it for america. i'll have more to say on this later. now i want to thank leaders

schumer and joe manchin, senator manchin for the extraordinary effort that it took to reach this result. thank you. and let me speak to one other issue, the gdp, and whether or not we are in a recession. both chairman powell and many of the significant banking personnel and economists say we're not in a recession. let me just giving you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy. number one, we have a record job market -- record unemployment of 3.6% today. we've created 9 million new jobs so far since i've become president. businesses are investing in america at record rates, at record rates. foreign businesses are investing

in america, hundreds of millions and trillions of dollars sum total. $100 billion in semiconductor investments already announced by intel, samsung and texas instruments. more than $100 billion in electric battery invests by ford, tesla and more. and just last week, sk corporation of the republic of korea will be creating another 16,000 jobs here in america. and this is following the strongest rebound in american manufacturing in over three decades, creating 613,000, 613,000 manufacturing jobs. passing the chips bill is going to put $72 billion for tax credits to expand semiconductor production and the inflation

reduction act will add another $370 billion in clean energy tax credits in reconciliation, including incentives to accelerate domestic production of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and critical materials processing. that doesn't sound like a recession to me. to you very much. >> good afternoon. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city, and i just heard it from washington. president biden on offense, frankly, for the first time in a long time as key elements of his agenda suddenly and surprisingly seem to be coming together. that bill he just talked about which democrats are calling the inflation reduction act, is something he has been working toward for more than a year. it's a potentially historic deal struck between joe manchin and chuck schumer. it aims to lower health care costs, reduce the federal deficit, includes what the

president called the most significant investment ever in fighting climate change. it was a stunning surprise that most of washington never saw coming, this agreement. we're going to hear from biden again in the next hour and we expect them to argue further that the u.s. economy is on the right path. that is in spite of what he just mentioned, the new gdp numbers that show the u.s. economy shrank for a second straight quarter. that's a key sign of a possible recession, even if joe biden, the white house and the fed chair will not call it that. and it follows a series of sudden shifts that produced a potentially transformative day for joe biden, frankly at a critical time, because we're just a few months out from midterms. yesterday he emerged from covid isolation to cheers in the rose garden and touted vaccines and new treatments. in the senate the chips bill passed on that rare bipartisan vote, more than a quarter trillion to boost manufacturing

of computer chips and create thousands of jobs. secretary of state antony blinken announced the u.s. made an offer to russia to release brittney griner and paul whelan. it's suggested his presidency is back from the dead, so we've got a lot to discuss. i want to bring in capitol hill correspondent ali vitali, reporter for politico and co-author of the politico playbook and the founder of country over party and an msnbc political analyst. look, eugene, your headline before we heard from the president said, manchin breathes new life into biden's agenda. he certainly made it sound like that. explain what this might mean for the president and the party. >> you know, this administration has been besieged by issue after

issue after issue. they were looking and hoping for a win here and that's exactly what they got yesterday. what they ended up getting was joe manchin and senate majority leader chuck schumer releasing a statement saying, we've got a deal. something that, to be fair, most of us in washington, d.c. did not expect, because we thought joe manchin walked away from the larger outlining and that wasn't the case. i talked to someone close to manchin yesterday and they pressed this over and over again, that we told you guys he was not walking away from the table. so they continued these conversations in the background, they continued these conversations for days and days. you talk to the white house, they're excited about this. they kind of stayed out of it for the most part, because as

joe manchin told my colleague, president biden told him, hey, if you don't think it's going to be helpful for me to be involved in these conversations, i will step back and allow you to do that, and they have allowed that to happen. now you have the administration as we go into the midterms with all the things you just outlined, with this big deal that they had promised that was going to be a bill for more than a year now, something that can be a reality right before the midterms, showing people, the white house hopes, that washington, d.c. can work. that's something they're going to continue to lean on and you're going to continue to hear from them. even today you saw president biden with a little bit of pep in his step as he was talking about that bill. >> and, matthew, he essentially said i'm not the only person here, lots of folks like this. larry summers likes it, al gore likes it, elizabeth warren likes it. he used words like transformative, significant. i guess the question is, does it significantly change the landscape potentially for the

midterms? >> well, in my view the landscape of the midterms has fundamentally been changed over the last 30 days anyway, and i think there's a number of different polls that have pointed that out, and that's primarily because, and we've talked about this before, there's a decoupling between the perceptions of biden and the generic ballot numbers we see, and i know you'll talk about this later, the u.s. poll, which has the democrats now four points ahead on generic ballot, even with biden low job approval. in my view, that was driven primarily over the discussion over choice in roe v. wade, the discussion over guns and gun reform and the january 6th committee that has laid out a number of facts in the course of this. so i actually think the trajectory for the last 30 days has been pointing more and more and more toward the democrats' favor and if you look at internals in these polls, and this will only help, because

independents are breaking. it provides a contrast between competent leadership that gets stuff done, and on the other side among republicans, which is this whole realm of cruelty and conspiracy theories and craziness that the democrats, i think, would fundamentally run on on this. and this provides added evidence that the democrats are providing competent leadership at a difficult time in contrast to all the crazy conspiracy stuff that the republicans are doing. so i think this just adds one more element in the trajectory that's already moving right now, this summer, toward the democrats. >> and i have to say, ali, if the number of members of congress are willing to go on tv as a measure of how folks where you are feel about this, then they're feeling pretty good. i just want to play a little bit of what we heard from the president, because i think it speaks to maybe the messaging we're going to hear from democrats. take a listen. >> i know it can sometimes seem

like nothing gets done in washington. i know it never crosses any of your minds. but the work of the government can be slow and frustrating, and sometimes even infuriating. then the hard work of hours and days and months from people who refused to give up, pays off. history is made. lives are changed. with this legislation, we're facing up to some of our biggest problems and we're taking a giant step forward as a nation. >> so what are you hearing from folks on the hill, ali, about what this means? and is it a done deal really? >> reporter: i don't think that any senate democrat or house democrat, for that matter, would disagree with the idea that this has been slow and frustrating, and also is a positive thing to see a deal on finally. there has been a whole roller coaster of emotions over the course of the last year, frankly, as manchin and schumer and other democrats have been trying to hash out what this reconciliation package would

look like. biden calling it transformative is something i've heard from multiple senate democrats over the last 24 hours, even though they were surprised by the bill coming yesterday, and i think the fact that they're still framing it as transformative is true when you look at what's in it. for example, more than $300 billion going towards climate initiatives, the largest investment that we've seen from the government ever at a time when there is a true clambering for more investment in fighting climate change at this moment. at the same time, there is also the acknowledgment here that we know what used to be in this bill, when it costs $2.5 trillion and included key things like elements, things like paid family leave and universal pre-k. those are things that democrats are happy for something but do wish the package of last year could have been revived in some way. i also think you think about the people who are going on television touting this plan, certainly there are a lot of

them, but there's one notable voice all of us are looking for and it's senator kyrsten sinema. i asked senator manchin about that and he said he hasn't spoken to her yet. she has not yet said that she's on board. >> you know, it isn't over until it's over. matthew, biden obviously still has to make sure that this thing gets done, but he also has to contend with those gdp numbers. he mentioned it, trying to launch a preemptive strike. but so did mitch mcconnell. here's what he tweeted last night. democrats have already crushed american families with historic inflation. now they want to pile on giant tax hikes that will hammer workers and kill many thousands of american jobs. first they killed your family's budget, now they want to kill your jobs, too. so could this also provide an opening for messaging for the midterms for the republicans?

>> i think the republicans are going to say whatever the republicans are going to say, and there's much of what mitch mcconnell said that is patently false. they're only talking on tax increases on the super evaluaty wealthy and corporations, and at the time the economy is at full employment. i think the republicans want to do everything they possibly can to not talk about the candidates that are actually running for office around the country. the election deniers, the people putting out crazy stuff on roe v. wade, crazy stuff on gay marriage, all of the stuff in the ethernet and all of it getting talked about. the republicans in the leadership know that if they're running on that, they're losing. so anything they can do to try to switch the topic off of their own candidates that are running around the country, i think they want, and it's incumbent upon democrats to keep the pressure going on the contrast between the two types of leadership.

and as i said, that's what i think -- what happened with joe biden today and his agreement provides even more solid evidence of competent leadership that gets stuff done. >> and one more note on republicans, they've been threatening to block the chips bill if they thought there was still a chance of a manchin bill, and then just hours after republicans helped pass the chips bill, we got the bipartisan vote, the manchin deal gets announced. what happened there? >> reporter: that's something that i asked senator joe manchin about, because in the immediate aftermath of, wow, there's a deal, were the open questions of, oh, did schumer and manchin outmaneuver mcconnell here? he had laid the red line out that he wasn't going to allow a push forward on the chips bill, the semiconductor package, if there was still a hope of democrats pushing forward on reconciliation. but we know yesterday that chips passed the senate in bipartisan fashion. i asked manchin about this. listen to what he said. >> did you guys pull a fast one

on republicans after the chips vote had passed, then announcing your deal? >> no, i sure hope they don't feel that way. i understand that they are, but i don't know why. here's the thing. first of all, i have not spoken to kyrsten sinema about this. our people were working intensely. our people wrote the bill, wrote the contents. that's why everything was ready last night. we worked with schumer's staff, they were very constructive. everybody would give and take a little bit and the white house, they were basically kept apprised of what was going on to a certain extent. >> reporter: so manchin bringing us behind the scenes there both in terms of the strategy with republicans and also the strategy within his own caucus. i think what's clear is the fact that he hasn't talked to senator kyrsten sinema. you're also getting a little bit of behind the scenes because that's what our zoom booth looks like because senator manchin is

at home with covid. >> quite luxurious. i had forgotten how fabulous it is there. i want to go back to this big picture, if i can, eugene, which is the point of the new york magazine headline that biden has been brought back from the dead. i guess one argument is the president's numbers have been so low, there was nowhere to go but up. the other is the victory was snatched from the jaws of defeat. what are they feeling at the white house? are you sensing from them that they think now there's the start of a turnaround? >> i would say cautious optimism. they have felt earlier, time after time during this administration, that they had turned a corner, and last summer they thought they were turning a corner on covid and that is still a large part of our lives. then you had afghanistan. so since then, when good things do happen, they kind of wait a

little bit for it to really pass to feel confident. but they are feeling really good right now, because the biggest roadblock was going to be figuring out what joe manchin wanted. and after thinking and operating and president biden said this last week, if congress won't act on climate, i'll do something. we have more than $300 billion in this bill for climate initiatives. and so they're feeling good, but waiting to see how everything plays out. and i will say they also know the political reality of trying to sell the gdp numbers we saw and also the economic benefits that they have seen over the last year and a half. it's a very complicated economy. you talk to experts and they say that is something that makes it difficult for both the white house and members of congress and other folks who are running across the country in the democratic party to explain to voters. it is harder to explain that technically this is not a

recession because it's only one area, which is two quarters of gdp decline, there are all these other things. that's a hard thing to explain. republicans, all they explain, do you feel like you don't have enough money in your pocket. they know they have to continue that. they think if they can pass the bills, the chips bill, what used to be bbb, that they have a lot more going for them as they move forward. >> eugene, ali, matthew, such a great conversation. thank you for sitting through the president's message with us. that message does strike at the heart of two main problems the american people have been feeling intensively. inflation and climate change. nbc's cal perry is seeing that firsthand. it's kind of a microcosm. i know you spoke to people and experts with how they're dealing of this convergence of crises.

what are they telling you? >> reporter: when you listen to the president talk about the intersection between climate change and inflation, we're here in arizona where it's intersecting. this is one of the fastest areas of the country when it comes to growth but it's heating up faster than any other part of the country. it is in so many ways a changed climate. you have more than 110 days a year here of triple digit temperatures. when you put inflation on top of that, it is stressing families out, as you can imagine. we had a day at one of the biggest nonprofits at the state, new leaf camp, they try to help people economically disadvantaged. we spoke to someone in the program who talked about difficulty in her energy bills, especially when it goes to winter to summer here in arizona. take a listen. >> when summer hits, everything got super hot so that electricity bill skyrockets for me. $100 is no longer good for the two months during winter. now it only covers maybe 20 days

for $100, and that, to me, is a lot. $100 goes a long way for me. so the change in the season and when it does come into summer, it makes it really, really difficult. >> reporter: and so you have groups like a new leaf trying to provide those services and that economic relief. there was a turning point in 2020 when heat related deaths jumped 60%. it is a health concern, an economic concern, and it is a growing one, especially here in the southwest. >> i mean, people can say, of course it's hot, it's summer in phoenix. what we are seeing in terms of the number of days over 100, the economic pressure is extraordinary. cal perry, thank you for bringing that to us. we have a lot more to talk about this hour. the biggest congressional climate action in human history. what exactly does it do and how will it help? we've got the perfect expert to answer those questions for you next. plus, a very busy two hours on the economy because in just a

matter of minutes we will hear from treasury secretary janet yellen. in the next hour president biden will be back to talk about american business. so stay with us for all of it. you're watching chris jansing reports only on msnbc. double vin made things look like this. but then my doctor recommended tepezza, a prescription medicine that treats thyroid eye disease. with my symptoms under control, things are really opening up. (vo) in a clinical study, nearly 7 out of 10 patients taking tepezza saw improvements in double vision. and more than 8 out of 10 patients had less eye bulging. tepezza is an infused medicine. patients taking tepezza may experience infusion reactions. tell your doctor right away if you have symptoms such as high blood pressure, fast heartbeat, shortness of breath, or muscle pain. before receiving tepezza, tell your doctor if you have diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease or ibd, or are pregnant, or planning to become pregnant. tepezza may raise your blood sugar even if you do not have diabetes and may worsen ibd such as crohn's disease

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tag-teaming messaging today. any moment we're expecting to hear from treasury secretary janet yellen on the state of the

economy. first let's talk more about the historic deal in the senate that could lead to the biggest climate investment in u.s. history. the inflation reduction act of 2022 includes $369 billion to address energy security and climate change, including tax breaks to encourage investments in clean energy technologies, including incentives to ramp up production of wind, solar and geothermal energy and credits for individuals to purchase electric cars. here's president biden just a short time ago. >> it will be the most important investment, the most important investment we've ever made in our energy security and developing cost savings and job creating clean energy solutions for the future. it's a big deal. >> and now janet yellen. >> coming out of the dips of the pandemic, the united states experienced an historic economic

recovery, a rebound that's unmatched in our nation's modern history, in its speed and scale. right now, even in the face of global headwinds, including a war in europe and successive variants of the pandemic, our economy remains resilient. our unemployment rate stands at 3.6%, household finances are strong, and industrial output continues to grow. this outcome was not preordained. in january 2021, when president biden and this administration took office, the unemployment rate was at 6.4%, 834,000 new jobless claims were being filed each week on average, and 20 million americans were receiving unemployment benefits. only 1% of americans had been fully vaccinated against covid-19 and over 3,000 people

were dying from the virus each day. in many respects, by the time president biden took office our economy had been brought to a standstill. at its core, our remarkable progress since then has been driven by this administration's policies, particularly through timely and targeted fiscal support in the rescue plan, combined with the vaccination effort that allowed businesses to reopen and americans to get back to work. over the course of the administration, our economy has created over 9 million jobs and the labor market is now at full employment. in 2021, we saw the biggest single year decline in unemployment on record and the biggest year of economic growth in almost four decades. fixed investment has recovered to pre-pandemic trend in just

two years. by comparison, in the last two recessions, this never happened, and during this time we also reduced the deficit by $1.5 trillion yen. these statistics are not abstractions, they represent american workers back at work, families with more financial security and businesses, small and large, that have been able to hire and grow. as president biden has said, we've entered a new phase in our recovery, focused on achieving steady, stable growth without sacrificing the gains of the last 18 months. we know there are challenges ahead of us. growth is slowing globally. inflation remains unacceptably high, and it's this administration's top priority to bring it down. we know how difficult higher prices can be for families, how they can squeeze a household

budget, and how challenging the past two years of disruption caused by covid-19 have been, and that's why this administration mounted an historic vaccination campaign to get the pandemic under control and why we're laser focused on bringing down prices. the same factors that have driven nation to record levels internationally, peers like canada, the united kingdom and the euro zone, those factors are hurting americans as well. these challenges also include vladimir putin's illegal and shameful war in ukraine. more than half the inflation experienced in 2022 reflects rising food and energy costs, global fallout from russia's invasion. and it also reflects the lingering impacts of the pandemic, particularly in china where repeated lockdowns have

brought their economy to a halt. the federal reserve has the primary role in bringing down inflation. the president and i are committed to taking action to drive down costs and protect americans from the global pressures we face. that includes the president's historic release of 1 million barrels a day from the strategic petroleum reserve, which helped reduce the price of gas by between 17 and 42 cents per gallon, according to a treasury analysis this week. americans have seen additional relief on this front and in the last few weeks prices have declined by over 60 cents a gallon in total. our efforts also include the work we've done to develop a cap on the price of russian oil, a way to ensure a steady flow of

oil onto the global market, while denying putin revenue for his military. at a time of global anxiety over high prices, a price cap on russian oil is one of the most powerful tools we have to address inflation by preventing future spikes in energy costs. the reconciliation package announced yesterday will also help ease inflationary pressures by lowering some of the biggest costs families face, including energy, health care, and prescription drugs, all while making historic investments in fighting climate change and reducing the deficit. importantly, this bill will also make sure we finally have the resources we need to ensure that wealthy americans are not able to avoid paying the taxes they owe. these efforts are long overdue

and congress should pass it immediately. this context, including the successes over the last year and the global challenges we face, is critical in understanding today's gdp data. most economists and most americans have a similar definition of recession, substantial job losses and mass layoffs, businesses shutting down, private sector activity slowing considerably, family budgets under immense strain, in some a broad-based weakening of our economy. that is not what we're seeing right now when you look at the economy. job creation is continuing, household finances remain strong, consumers are spending and businesses are growing. as one example, in the last three months, our economy has

created over 1.1 million jobs. in the three months beginning each modern recession outside of the pandemic, our economy lost 240,000 jobs on average. spending by businesses and consumers, the core of our economic activity, rose by 3% in the first quarter of this year and continued to expand in the second. industrial output, the measure of our manufacturing, mining and utility sectors, has shown strong average growth over the first half of the year compared to sharp average declines during past recessions. in the context of today's report, it's important to look beyond the headline number to understand what's happening. the contraction in gdp was driven primarily by the change

in private inventories, a volatile component of gdp which subtracted over two percentage points off quarterly growth. today's report shows continued expansion and consumer spending overall and in services in particular, in addition to notable strength in net exports. overall, with a slowdown in private demand, this report indicates an economy that is transitioning to more steady, sustainable growth. this path is consistent with one that eases inflationary pressures while maintaining the labor market progress of the past 18 months. while our economy has been resilient in the face of numerous shocks over the past two years, i should also stress that there are numerous risks on the horizon, many of them

global, that we remain highly attuned to. they include the outcome of the war in ukraine, covid lockdowns in china and pandemic-related supply chain snarls. these factors make predicting the future difficult and we must be clear-eyed and vigilant about the threats they pose. but we cannot lose sight of the remarkable progress we've made from the depths of the pandemic and the tremendous resilience our economy has shown, thanks to the hard work and perseverance of american workers, families and businesses, as well as effective policy. this progress gives us a solid foundation to confront the challenges ahead of us, and i believe that in the months to come, with skill and luck, it's possible to maintain that strength, particularly in the labor market, while easing the tightness that has driven

inflation. and with that, i would be happy to take your questions. >> thank you, secretary. regardless of whether or not we're in a recession, and you seem to be indicating not, many americans are feeling some pain right now, and the last time we had to tame inflation at this level was the early 1980s, and it took two years to do that. do you anticipate that this fight against inflation will be a long and grinding one like the early '80s, or will it be faster and do we need to see some job losses in order to bring that inflation rate down? thank you. >> so with respect to how americans are feeling about the economy, they're experiencing great stress from high

inflation. we simply haven't seen anything like this since the 1970s, and seeing what's happening to food prices and energy prices and rent and other prices in the economy is making families very concerned about their household budgets. they want to see it end. and this is pressure that's real, that we recognize, and it's the president's top priority to bring inflation down. i think the key job here is the federal reserve's. they're clearly moving to address that and have indicated their commitment to bring it down. you know, this is a very unusual situation in that coming out of the pandemic we have a set of

supply chain challenges that continue to affect the economy, an example being the ongoing shortage of semiconductors that's holding back production of vehicles. and it's hard to know just what the timeframe is for those supply chain pressures to resolve and to ease. i think there are some positive signs that we're seeing that suggest that inflation is likely to come down in the days ahead, but the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. the administration and congress are taking very important supplementary measures. as i mentioned, the releases from the strategic petroleum reserve have been one factor working to bring down gas prices, and the legislation that

will make an enormous difference to prescription drug prices and hold health care costs down. the investments in energy and to address climate change will, over time, improve greatly our sense of security about energy and make us much less vulnerable to global shocks. and as you know, we're working with our allies on a price cap to avoid further upward pressure on oil and gas prices. >> that's treasury secretary janet yellen. we'll continue to listen in to see if some more news is made. but she's arguing that the economy is making a strong recovery from covid, from the war in ukraine, and says the surprise manchin/schumer agreement will help ease inflationary pressures. however, for americans

struggling with inflation, she's got a lot of convincing to do. just hours ago, more red flags over a potential recession, this time the gdp report, economic activity shrank for the second straight quarter, this time by almost 1% between april and june. 256,000 time filed first-time unemployment claims last week, slightly less than the week before. that comes in the wake of the federal reserve hiking interest rates for a fourth time this year. it's now more expensive to borrow money for a mortgage, car loan or student loan, and credit card interest rates are going up, too. joining me, ben white, chief economic correspondent at politico and host of the politico money podcast, and jonathan lemire, white house bureau chief. ben, that was the right question, right? is this going to be a long and grinding fight? that's what the american people want to know. she said hard to know what the timeframe is, even though there are some positive signs. this is a challenge for this

white house, and you've argued this is more about the politics of it than the economics of it. but how do you read what we just saw from the president, and specifically from janet yellen? >> yeah, i mean, the president and secretary yellen are both correct, that it's not really a recession until after the fact and one definition is two negative quarters, and we've had that. but as yellen said, as the president said, a inventories a deficit and other factors. so i don't think anybody at home is worried that much about one initial gdp report. what they're really worried about is inflation and prices and the fact that prices are so much higher than wage gains. that's the problem they have to deal with and that's where she talked about the need for skill and luck. skill by the federal reserve and how it raises interest rates,

luck in the front of the ukraine war and all the other global challenges, they're going to need a lot of both. they can't turn these negative numbers around on the economy. it has nothing to do with the technicalities of gdp, but it has to do with the fact that prices are too high and people's budgets are squeezed and that's made them super sour on the economy and it's difficult to break through that unless you get inflation down. that's going to take some time, and the fed could get it wrong and go too fast and drive us into a real recession, one that we don't have to litigate with gdp numbers every time they're revised. >> jonathan, you know if everything the president said was true, if everything that janet yellen said was true, if this bill that looks like it's going to pass does amazing things to ease inflationary pressures, nobody is suggesting it's going to happen tomorrow. in the meantime, people are still paying a lot more for groceries and so on. in 12 months, from june of last year and june of this year, energy costs are up more than 41%, gas prices 60%.

at home, food costs up more than 10%, shelter costs up more than 5%. so what are you hearing from the white house about their strategy here? >> well, it's certainly a complicated and, frankly, strange frankly, strange economy. there's a lot of mixed signals here, some good, some bad. obviously the white house is trying to push this narrative that things are getting better. they have some evidence to back that up and they have open that this new reconciliation bill that is stunningly revived this week would help even further. do be clear, we don't have senator sinema's vote and that matters and the democrats have no margin for error and they hope to bring this for a vote next week. that gets complicated if members, like senator durbin, keep getting covid. it's about feeling, too.

it's about whether americans to your point when they start feeling better, this bill, these other measures are not going to provide immediate relief. it will be a little bit down the road but someone is simply trying to convince americans that, hey, things are better now and that in itself could lead to once prices begin to fall even slightly rebounding poll numbers for joe biden. >> and, ben, you write in your newsletter that republicans are generally salivating and to declare all of this is going off the rails, all of this is moving in the wrong direction. what are we expecting to hear from them and where does that lead this white house? >> yeah, in a tough spot is where it leaves them. we're already hearing that the biden recession is officially under way and these gdp numbers prove it. if you go by a definition that says recession is two straight quarters of negative grove,

growth, you're not officially wrong. i've never seen a recession where you've had hundreds of thousands of jobs created a month. it's difficult to break through this and explain to people the technicalities of gdp. it's an easy talking point for republicans and tough for the white house to rebut, especially when everybody hates inflation. it's really tough to come from that point. easy for the gop to make the case, hard to rebut it. it's not really a recession yet but it could become one. >> so, jonathan, look, the use of that word, it's a technical term, right? it's a term that economists use. i just heard it before i came in here and i heard it from people on the street, are we in a recession? they want to know are we in a recession which would lead you to suggest that there is power in the use of that word and angst that it potentially

provides to people if they think that we are. so is the white house nervous just about that? forget the, you know, the economic term of it as ben says. we know sort of what the standard is for what a recession is. even if we keep saying recession, recession, recession, not a recession, does that play into what's problematic for this white house? >> no question. they're doing their best to avoid it, which is why we've all had semantic fights with white house aides and we got into lengthy conversations on whether or not this qualifies as a recession. we've heard from president biden and janet yellen. that word does have power. it's a self-perpetuating thing for americans who get anxious if

they hear the word and mute change behavior. as a technical definition, we there. it's really about feeling. we're going to hear from the white house trying to sell the good economic numbers and ignoring the ones that are more checkered as they try to build political momentum. >> and what are you going to be watching for from the fed? we just heard janet yellen mention that. >> yeah, how much more they boost rates the next time. they're going to keep raising them until inflation starts coming down. do they go to a half a point instead of three-quarters of a point. there are inflation numbers coming out tomorrow. it is good to keep being good. if not, worse problem for them. the big question is when does the fed slow up on the brakes and let the economy continue to improve and not worry as much about the inflation rate. that could take a little bit of time. >> ben white, always good to see you, my friend.

and jonathan lemire, author of "the big lie." congratulations and thanks to you. >> and meantime, daniel snyder, owner of the washington commanders, agreeing to participate remotely in a sworn deposition to answer what he knew about his team's alleged toxic work environment. the committee cherish you'd a report alleging that snyder commissioned a shadow investigation into employees who smoke out against the team's toxic workplace in an effort to influence a league review of sexual harassment allegations. snyder has denied the accusations and called the allegations outright lies. that's going to do it for this hour. we expect to hear from president biden on the economy again in about 20 minutes or so and we will have that for you live. i'm back in the chair for "katy

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tur. the overriding question this hour is whether the president, meeting with ceos just minutes from now, can convince americans the economy is actually headed in the right direction. so we're keeping a close eye on the white house and that meeting where he'll no doubt take another shot at making a complex economic argument and use it to tell people that things are not as bad as they might feel. in fact, we heard a preview of that last hour when both the president and treasury secretary, janet yellen, said the strong jobs market and low unemployment numbers undercut claims we're in a recession despite numbers showing the economy shrinking for a second straight quarter. the president is also touting legislation, the chips act and that stunning new agreement, $700 billion that would make historic investments in climate change and health care and deliver on