for. >> yeah, somebody to help us. that's why we just want to live and move forward. you know? it's gone, it's the past. move on to better days. >> that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. >> welcome to the show. a media. senate sunday, march -- hundred ace of the 22 and two midterms. we're doing the whole of today show to those elections what, they mean and what might happen. they are quite possibly the most important -- of our lifetime in, yes, that said about every election, let me just point out -- -- on january the 6th, 2021, donald trump might still be president right now. and republicans are already trying to -- who could do with trump's

allies filled to do in 2020, through the electoral voting system into chaos and create a showdown with the next president -- by a vote in the -- representatives. history suggests democrats are on route to a midterms lacking, as president obama once called it. -- traditionally, glossy in congress. -- expect performed so poorly that it's almost a portland this point. yes, president biden's all-time low poll numbers are in helping his party -- and senate majorities. the true picture is more complicated than that. brand new, shiny reconciliation bill -- and the climate. there's also new polling this week, suggesting that things might not be is -- as the first seemed. despite biden's 33% approval rating, and the fact that 50% of -- headed in the wrong direction,

recent polls also show a slight majority still want them in control of congress. democrats real opportunity is in the senate, where they have a chance to take several seats held by republicans. in wisconsin, the democratic lieutenant governor is leading senator ron johnson by two points. barnes got a boost this week were two of his -- dropped out and endorsed him. in florida, congresswoman val demings his training -- by seven points, not far off from the margin of error. in ohio, republican senator ron paul -- j.d. vance's work had to turn himself into a trumpian candidate and secure the republican nomination. who face off of goods to private, it is a tight race. vance at 42, ryan at 39. in pennsylvania, retiring senator -- opened the door for democrats to flip the state.

democrats -- know currently leads doctor oz -- the stakes were high. the margins are tight, and the suspense killing me. luckily, we only have about 100 days until we get the results. joining me now to talk more about this, what it means, what might happen, cornell belcher. -- he's not the president brilliant corners research, and msnbc political analyst. rachel -- political strategist and election analyst. host of the cycle newsletter -- hidden were hurts. how to save democracy by beating republicans at their own game. thank you both for coming on the show today. i want to start with a question to both of you. if you had to guess, today, we don't have predictions anymore, but start with the prediction -- will democrats lose or keep control of the house and senate? >> it's interesting that you asked me that. today, i would say --

it's not a winnable election. -- they're gonna lose. we're gonna talk about more but it's a complicated question. today, i think they do hold. >> yeah. rachel? >> here's one way to explain it. your intro is a really good thing that we can use, right? -- if we could face it in 2018, we would've cleaned it up. florida, pennsylvania, wisconsin, all -- and we probably would be talking very seriously about ohio, if the dubbed he was the same. that's why -- i want people to understand -- our really bad for us. the senate map is really good. we could overperform with the fundamentals allow for us

because of that. the house is a different story. you are showing that we are seeing action in the generic ballot. -- the preference for which party controls congress will tell us where the conversion -- and enthusiasm capitalist whether democrats -- or galvanize to show. but we are now seeing -- fleece explicit, did it move, right? you could bite forest eviscerate women's right to privacy and the committee -- would they brought to the public, it's stunning. no matter how bad you thought things were, it's 1000 times worse than documented. it's provided momentum change, now it's about will be due to tap in. >> and he doubled down, real quickly on that. it's such a good point. to educate our viewers on the dynamics and context here. if you go back to 2010, i had

run succeed in 2010. if you look at the metrics, it wasn't like two or 3 million people who voted for barack obama -- a bit complete a steak at a -- let you had. isn't adding flow -- these measures are important because what we saw in 2010, we saw a large swath of the obama -- and not participating in the midterm elections. does that is a lot of time. our younger voters pullback, minority voters, you have an electorate that's older and less diverse in the midterms. it tends to benefit republicans. one of the things that i'm seeing in the data right now which is different than what we saw on 2010 -- there is more interest in the midterm election -- right now -- in 2010. even though younger voters and

minority voters are not happy with democrats. the more interested in motivated for right now. i>> rachel, let me bring you back and say, younger voters, climate is a big issue. how much do you think this new budget reconciliation, which is big described as a biggies climate bill, if it passes, will inspire younger voters to get to the poll? how much will that change the game in november? >> it's really critical that they get this climbable done. at the end of the day, when it comes down to his qualification, right? a midterm election is about to change and look when i was just pointing, up -- [interpreter] the expectations gap, way see vividly --

there's always a gap, but will republicans didn't -- but i would tell people, listen to this, another progressive media, -- true that he wouldn't play ball but attended the day, we don't have -- . one of those republicans, there's been a real problem for both the democratic agenda or -- -- dropping out this week, endorsing him for once, democrats deciding not to fight amongst themselves and focus on the big prize, ron johnson's. >> it shows you, ottawa's --

it is very good news for leader schumer but they've been able to clear that unclear that field. -- fighting in a primary. 46, 44, i want to caution our viewers because oftentimes, our viewers will see -- pause anyone because you lose wisconsin. there's a lot of voters out there who are still on the fence are still making up their minds. a league doesn't mean a win. however, you always want to beat fruit odell to hide. votes on the fence. barnes is an opportunity to paint johnson with the radical, extremist agenda that we see coming out of the republican

party. one of the things i think is important for democrats across the country right now is that this is increasingly turning away from a referendum on joe biden and more like a referendum on republican extremism, everything from climate, to women's rights, to voting rights and if it becomes a referendum on republican -- you're gonna like democrats chances. >> it's easy to do a referendum on republicans when they're dominating the kind of candidates they're nominating. rachel, republican darling, j.d. vance, isn't performing as well as it hoped. he's virtually tied with his democratic opponent. he's been under fire this week resisting that people in violent relationships shouldn't get divorced. which you make of the race in ohio and how tight it is? a state that trump owes brags about. >> this is why, supported, it's a policy gap. --

affective uninitiated in history -- that we want to do -- that allows it to create a national argument and the titans should the states. j.d. vance is too strong for ohio. and you define that extreme this will affect individual voters health, wealth and safety. you really talk about creating a referendum effect which is, as a pro, the key to disrupting the midterm. -- but the attack is more potent. >> cornell, quick question on florida and north carolina, democrats val demings, and sherry bleeds ali, black women running -- on a lot of the platforms -- are you surprised to see the campaigns see two women of color running? or is that just the way it has to be done? >> the, ablaze surprise.

-- this authentically who she is. crime, violence will be a big issue. republicans have tried to use crime and violence as a hammer to be democrats and show them soft on crime. with these two candidates, it's hard to make these candidates are soft on crime. it makes a lot of sense for these democrats to -- one of the biggest hits that you're going to see coming. particularly, -- sexism has a thing, there are troops it is absorbed will be -- offset, women have the sensibility to show that they are -- eager to women who absolutely have the credentials to stand up to this attack. >> quick last question, rachel -- right of time, but i gotta ask you.

-- that's 2022. 2024 senate map looks really bad for democrats. it's really now and ever. >> it really is. i'll tell you, it's about 2022 could determine the governorships -- along with the senate and mission things -- if we lose anything, we're gonna be hurt. if we lose all three, 2024 is going to be very hard to have a free and fair election. can you imagine -- republican governor. no. >> we will have to leave it there. cornell belcher, rachel bitecofer, thank you both for the analysis. still ahead, if democrats want to hold on to the senate, will first need to hold onto the seats they already have. colorado senator is in a fairly close race himself and he joins me next after the break. don't go away. don't go away. le with my trusty team ♪ ♪ there's heather on the hedges ♪ ♪ and kenny on the koi ♪ ♪ and your truck's been demolished by the peterson boy ♪

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call baby fte, a big bleeping deal. -- a big budget reconciliation plan to prop more than 400 billion dollars, over the next ten years, towards the increasing health care access -- and reducing carbon emissions by 40%, funded in part by higher taxes on the corporations. it's a plan joe manchin was opposing two weeks ago. he was pointing it out -- of the original 3.5 trillion dollar package biden asked

congress for last year. -- it also, the curdle, has had to get through the side of the house. joe businesses got bored. radio seven so far from his fellow -- democratic senator kirsten sinema of arizona. if it happens, it'll be good for democrats in the midterms. but, it will be enough to cancel out all the harm that manchin may have done over the past 18 months? imagine a 50/50 senate right now if democratic caucus hadn't been blocked by that at every turn. the senate could've got rid of the filibuster, secured voting rights and abortion rights. could've passed a bigger budget bill and done it a year ago. even manchin and sinema's -- spent much of the past 18 months exasperated -- killed like expanded child tax credits, which expired of the sort of the year. listen to one of those centrist senators from colorado, michael

bennett, lamenting it's and. >> and the percent of the children all across this country directly benefited from the bill we passed here. we cut child poverty nearly in half. we cut hunger by a quarter for families with kids during a pandemic. that feels like a worthy thing to have done. we did it without adding a single bureaucrat to the federal government, without adding one more federal agency p. we proved we could do it. and then we didn't extend it. >> colorado senator is not running for his third full term in office. -- . >> after 2000 appointment to the senate. -- an accidental senator.

the newcomer proved he was no accident, picking out a tight one for his first full term in 2010 and a more decisive win in 2016. this time, he's up against -- a man who beat out the insurrectionist candidate, -- especially near the same party as an increasingly unpopular president, who's been stuck waiting -- and a blocked agenda -- to close term senator bennett campaigning this time around? where does it for the democrats have gone wrong and what is he hoping to see -- come november? let's ask him. michael bennett joins me now. >> thanks so much for coming on the show. as of sunday, we're 100 days until the midterms. you are running to keep your seat and you yourself instead it's gonna be a tough race. what is your main message at this point? whether you're running on, given you have a president in

-- all-time low? how do you work around the? >> my main message is that we need an economy that goes for everybody, not just the people of the top. for 50 years, we've had an economy, since reagan became president, and brought his trickle down on mechanics to washington d.c., we've had economy that supports really well for the 10%, not anybody else. and colorado, people can't afford a combination of housing, health care, higher education, or early childhood education. i'm fighting to change that. we have to save this democracy. we need to create economy that really works for families and gives people a sense that they're making a productive contribution to the economy and society. >> you've got this big reconciliation bill on the table, thanks to the schuman manchin deal. -- there will be huge, yes, but will remove voters, i wonder? biden's on the big

infrastructure investment of jobs act. it was a landmark legislation, meant to overhaul the country from roads, bridges, broadband. you said at the time, a quote, we can reaffirm the american people's faith that our democracy can put change in the lives. yet, americans don't really know about this change you've helped bring about. -- most voters don't even know this happened. 30% -- no about the tree. >> you're right about the. that's with this 100 days is really about. -- some snow we can run not doing something that has to do with infrastructure. it's a great story. people come out, republicans, democrats will cost the state. i think that will be true if we pass this reconciliation package as well. there are massive benefits for

colorado economy and the climate provisions, the tax provisions for clean energy manufacturing, for example. of course, very important provisions that will dramatically reduce the cost of drugs and predictions strokes in this country. we're gonna cap seeing -- $2,000. movie america history, medicare is gonna be required to negotiate drug prices on behalf of the american people. i can't think of anything we can do right now that would be more popular with the american people, especially when they're facing -- >> let me ask you this question. if you guys get hammered in the midterms, we all know there will be a kind of postmortem and there's already -- there are those who would say, this essentially --

-- the would say, joe biden and the democrats were doing really well at the beginning of -- -- him became less popular. what is your response to that argument? >> i'm not even sure i agree with the characterization of progressive versus moderate. we're dealing with very high inflation, very high gas prices -- -- what's caused this. this will -- and then, putin invading ukraine. these aren't excuses, these are

the facts. opponents race, who, by the way, said the don trump bears no responsibility for january 6th, who said he voted for every one of biden's -- trump supreme court nominees. who says he opposes the law that we've passed in colorado to codify women's rights to choose. he seemed only never that matters is 9.1% because that's the inflation ember. the number is 9.6% in the eu, i'm not sure joe biden cause that problem. we have to explain that. we have to win, by the way. i don't want to talk about -- is not about people being -- meets democrats have a moral obligation to win -- and ohio in colorado and nevada. we cannot lose those seats.

if we lose them, we move into people that don't actually believe in the democracy. >> indeed. as we were just discussing, places like michigan. -- i'm glad you mentioned those years because a lot of those polls recently show the democrats prospects for november have improved and many would argue is because of the public hearings. it reminded people of extremism and radicalism of the gop and not to people of the don trump -- is an argument for your party to be much more aggressive about donald trump and about gop extremism? but you haven't been. >> i hope comes out of the january 6th -- -- donald trump there is no

responsibility for january six, i wish she would watch some of the january 6th hearings because he knows that's completely untrue. i do think the party is very extreme. you see it with mitch mcconnell saying that -- her seat in the wake of the supreme court overturning roe v. wade. you see it in their inability to even vote to cut drug prices for seniors in this country, which is why we're doing right now. you see their inability to support provisions that are incredibly -- of climate change. i think, above all, you see a world where they want to double down on an economy that is where it's only for the people at the very top and not for everybody else. i think every single democrat could agree with the last thing i said -- absolutely. am i our age that the democratic party didn't fight hard enough to --

have the child tax credit? absolutely. >> no easy time shoe with these races. that's what we have to do. now we cannot afford that mitch mcconnell become majority leader, that would be a disaster. >> we'll leave it there. senator michael bennet, thank you so much for your time. i appreciate it. still to come, all were naturally focused on congressional races in the midterm, and maybe statewide races that proves to be the most consequential when it comes to the future of democracy. -- i wanted to become the top election officials in their states throughout the nation. more on that rather scary story after a short break. don't go away. eak. don't go away. and consumes, replacing thought with worry. but one thing can calm uncertainty. an answer. uncovered through exploration, teamwork, and innovation.

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of these upcoming midterm elections in congress, those races will decide which party has a majority for congress certifies the next presidential of -- across the country, voters are also saluting governors and secretaries of state -- and worse. take arizona, or next tuesday, republicans will pick a nominee to replace outgoing democratic secretary of state, katie hobbs. and then to beat in the primary is mark finchem, --

susan ember of the oath keepers. finnstrom also attended trump's rally near the white house. according to campaign filings -- where he was challenging joe biden's election victory in arizona. election results, he did not again onstage just a week ago. >> there are people that are in this race who didn't want -- to say it undermines democracy. they didn't believe that there was a problem. to this day, there's at least one that says there's nothing wrong with our elections, joe biden won. >> attention still has to win an american primary on tuesday, but election deniers -- who told nbc news, you wouldn't have certified joe biden's win in nevada in 2020. -- to install more people like him

across the country. people are christina corona, another 2020 election denier who won the gop election to challenge michigan democratic senator stay, jocelyn benson. corona called benson a left his minion of jobs -- on a podcast, as system truly strange things. these are just election deniers running in big battleground states -- and red states like indiana, the republican nominees almost purity to win in november. indiana's where big -- ac to the could be true public ado as was -- help take the presidency in 24. -- then he was fired because of, quote, office politics. the metaphor of the foxes in the house, this is it. these are candidates deeply --

-- 100 days from now. possibly for the last time -- but it really wasn't the first president to have a number of midterm night. well can president biden learn from history? that's next. that's next. as a musician living with diabetes, fingersticks can be a real challenge. that's why i use the freestyle libre 2 system. with a painless, one-second scan i know my glucose numbers without fingersticks. now i'm managing my diabetes better and i've lowered my a1c from 8.2 to 6.7. take the mystery out of managing your diabetes and lower your a1c. now you know. try it for free at freestylelibre.us

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the democrats wanted days in the country's in for a ride. if you're russian, it's one of the most radical, political shifts of the -- >> former election headquarters, the surge -- sweep republicans into office. the gop takes command of the house. >> if you just waking up this morning, democrats have recaptured control of the house for the first time in eight years. they picked up at least 28 seats. that number could go higher.

>> the conventional wisdom's of midterms elections are a referendum on the sitting president in his party. the truth is, midterms are more of a reckoning. in the past century, only two first-time presidents have gained house seats in the -- and republicans on the georgia bush picked up eight seats in 2002. the first federal elections after 9/11 and the launch of the war and afghanistan. both were special, historical cases and to tell the truth, both were very small games. in fact, since gerald ford was in office, the sitting president party has lost an average of more than 30 congressional seats in their first midterm contests. this november, republican -- just seven seats to take back the house and one seat to take back the senate. democrats hope the widespread anger of the end of roe v. wade in donald trump's insurrection will improve their chances of holding on to congress. they have got in a recent poll bump.

nothing about the past few years has gone according to plan. what lessons should biden be drawing from his predecessors or deals and what will happen in this november's election, when the heavyweight of historical precedent means these unprecedented times. -- nbc news an msnbc -- author of the new york times bestseller, presidents of war. michael, thanks for coming on the show. >> her q. >> we've played, you have, you -- in a way joe biden -- is facing a likely gop -- come 2023. >> i think harry truman is perfect. in 1946, harry truman lost both houses of congress. a lot of democratic leaders said truman, who was never elected, succeeded the presidency after franklin those developed as a loser for -- tim rather than -- humans, it all right, i'm in

the modernity but i want to try and work across the aisle with the new republican speaker, joe martin, and republicans in the house and senate. so, he did. he then became the marshall plan. nato, the response is stalled and marching through europe. all of that would've been impossible if truman had just said, you know, i'm finished or i'm gonna do nothing but fight the other side. >> that's truman. if we look at recent years, we've gone democratic presidents like obama, clinton, both getting select-y. look comes to mind -- we just played a bit of tom brokaw -- are seeing more radical republicans and let's take over in the house, possibly. what can you learn from their? >> that's for sure. i'm so glad that you're using that historical video from 1994 because it tells us a lot.

that was when new king george came in, different speaker who said, i'm not going to get along with the other side. this is going to be -- moving to try and stop the opposition. 2022 -- go straighter. the only three house of worries nowadays, this stasis and this inability to get very much done, it dates back to 1994. will clinton said was, even though of lost both houses of congress, and wanting to be like truman. and wouldn't put one foot in front of the other. i'm going to try and get things done. he was able to work with the other side, for better or for worse, on things like welfare reform and the balanced budget. despite the fact that many democrats in 1994 road -- he was able to get reelected. i would say almost exactly the

same about barack obama, after he lost both houses of congress in 2010. >> so, let's talk about barack obama. when he did lose, the tea party election, he famously waited for the i think what he said. >> i'm not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like i did last night. >> we made mistakes, we could've done things differently. we could've prioritize things in a different way. we have to do now is learn from those lessons and move forward. >> so, let me ask you this. joe biden was there in 2010, he has the advantage of being the former vice president. he was in the white house. there's talk that he wanted a stronger push after 2010. is he looking back at 2010 thinking, what did barack obama do right and wrong in the wake of that?

>> everything we know suggests that joe biden -- they would be an issue when obama and biden ran for reelection. quietly, biden with some people that he loved in oh my people didn't think he was enough of a fighter. that criticism is a little bit of an idea of what we can expect from biden this coming year. >> unlike donald trump, clinton and obama took their midterm shellacking's and then won reelection two years later, it didn't stop them from getting a second term -- much older than either of those candidates when he's up for

reelection in his 80s -- 75% of democratic voters want someone other than joe biden in 2024, that's massive. last time a president he declined to run for election was lbj. will these be tubes of where joe biden's own internal decision whether he runs again? he'll be an even bigger target for republicans if they win the house, because i have the house and have hearings on hunter biden in all the rest. >> i think that's exactly right. my estimation is, from what i know, if his health is, up he's running. there's not an obvious -- for 2024. if you use the parallel to harry truman in 1948, mehdi, anyone who is a long time ago but when truman wanted to run for election and its own right after new --

and lost both houses of congress so let's turn to someone else. they even turned to dwight eisenhower who someone didn't know was a republican -- was not likely taken one is a democrat. that's how desperate they were. the point i would make to joe biden and everyone right now, chill. a president looks very different in a reelection year from the way he does at the time that he wins or loses the midterms. ronald reagan, 1982. he had a terrible showing in the midterm elections. many people said their reagan is a one term president. two years later, reagan won reelection. it doesn't protect too much. >> what's interesting, michael, you have this unpopular terry biden in the same polls also show a generic lead for the democrats and the --

feels like voters, this time around, her disconnected. they've accepted whatever happens button -- right now, 2022, this is an important midterm election for the future of democracy. -- >> i think that's right. i>> if there was an obvious democratic ultimate of to biden, who was hugely popular, that would be one thing. the fact is, there isn't. for instance, bill clinton has told me and many others that the candidate of the republicans that he was worried about after losing the midterms in 1994 was colin powell. he was worried that powell would be nominated by republicans a centrist. hugely popular at the time. military background and clinton thought that because of his own weaknesses, he would have a very hard time defeating powell. imagine that colin powell in today's republican party, how left would be different. >> last question for you,

michael. democracy is on the ballot, is it not? it's depressing to have to say that but this could be the last time that we have a proper free and fair election, where everything goes according to how it supposed to go. >> very possibly. that's why all these old -- don't matter very much because i think with this election -- democracy or dictatorship. choose one of the other. one of the parties wants to protect our democracy, the other is indifferent or wants to undermine it and bring you some authoritarian form of government. in a choice like that, two thirds of americans should -- >> be from like that, it shouldn't be hard. joycelyn see it is from looked at. let's see if people turn out to save democracy. michael, we'll have to leave it there. thanks so much for your time. when we come back, one last

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does carry the unimaginably high stakes. as we discussed earlier, there are statewide candidates who embrace trump's big lie, running to become the highest ranking election officials in their state. people like mark finchem in arizona, who once said, he was an oath keeper. he's running to be secretary of state in a key swing state. would you think he's gonna do in 2024 with the power? people of kevin mccarthy is on course to become speaker of the house. kevin mccarthy. the man who joined more than 100 -- overturn the election, even after the attack on the capitol on january the 6th, 2021. these upcoming midterm elections aren't just about which political party will be able to advance their policy agenda, it's about the very future of american democracy. the january six committees have to make that especially clear over these past two months. before we go, let's take a moment to hear how chairman bennie thompson put it in his opening remarks, at the very

first hearing of the january 6th committee. >> the cause of our democracy domains in danger. the conspiracy to throw the will of the people is not over. there are those in this audience who thirst for power, but have no love or respect for what makes america great. the devotion to the constitution. allegiance to the rule of law. if our shared journey to build a more perfect union. january 6th and the lies that led to insurrection have put two and a half centuries of constitutional democracy at risk. the world is watching what we do here. america, as long -- to be a shining city on the heel of, beacon of hope in freedom, model for others who would we are at our best. how could we play that role when our host is such a

disorder? and we must confront the truth with candor, resolve and determination. we need to show that we are worthy of the gifts that are the birthright of every american. or >> so, yes, maybe it's become cliché to say that this election is the most important midterm of our lifetime, but it also happens to be true. american democracy is on the ballot this november. that does it for the mighty hasan show. make sure to join us on instagram, twitter, tiktok and facebook. i'll see you monday on the msnbc hub on peacock, will kick off another week of in-depth interview with -- for now, goodbye. for now, goodbye

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and welcome to a special episode. 100 days so the midterms. coming up, we will dive deep into what that -- in november and the first major election since biden defeated donald trump. that election still inexplicably being debated two years later. we'll get into one of the january 6th hearings are tainting republican voters minds ahead of the midterms. former dnc chairman howard dean is here. plus, abortion or the economy? the biggest issues driving voters to the polls, and with that could mean for each