weight they can put on his shoulders to get him to a point where he does that. however, to go into the andrew weissman case from the press release today, the manhattan district attorney's office is making very clear that the investigation not only into the trump organization, but the former president, is very much ongoing. >> tom, suzanne, and rebecca, thank you very much. we appreciate and that is going to do it for me today. hallie jackson picks up our coverage right now. we are following that breaking news with the judge saying he's not prepared to keep all the secrets secret forever. cracking open the door to unseal at least part of the affidavit. but first, telling the doj to propose redactions saying they have a week to do it. we've got our nbc news team and legal analysts standing by. also, new comments from mitch

mcconnell. why his prediction for the midterms now catching some attention with our new reporting on where republicans are and are not spending campaign cash. plus, the new strategy from the white house on the monkeypox emergency, planning to roll out more vaccines asap, but is it too little too late? and the man accused of attacking rushdie in court. we've got a lot to get to over the next 60 minutes. with us now is cal perry outside that courthouse in west palm beach. our justice and intelligence correspondent, ken dilanian is joining us. danny, and former federal prosecutor and former judge, carol lam. if you've been watching our coverage, you know there have been a lot of development. there's a lot going on. right? so here's where things stand as of 3:01 eastern time. the judge in charge of this case is ordering a redacted version of the affidavit to be released, but he's asking for input from the government on what those

redactions should entail no later than a week from today. that's not what the doj wanted. they hoped judge reinhardt would have kept the whole thing sealed, saying their investigation was in the early stages. the justice department is citing the safety of other witnesses after the spike in threats. one of those being threatened, the judge in this case. his own place of worship receiving dozens of calls over the past few days. if cal perry is with us, i want to start there. he is not so we'll start with ken dilanian. and i think the question is how much, you know, how many sharpie lines are we going to be seeing on this thing or not? >> a lot. i think we should keep our expectations tempered here because the justice department is of course going to propose redacting the names of any witnesses or federal agents. they'll want to black out investigative techniques, sources, and methods. then there's grand jury information which is secret by law. we've been reporting on and

reading about various grand jury subpoenas going down to mar-a-lago requesting surveillance video and documents. the fruits of that would have to be blacked out because again, it's secret by law. so the judge is basically saying look, justice department propose a set of redactions then i will rule on that. the media can also weigh in and the judge gets the ultimate say here. he may disagree with what the justice department wants to redact and if he does, he said he'll seal the record and allow them to appeal and the media can also appeal. so this process may take some time and i think, the judge also made a point of saying look, i think some of this can be released whether it's meaningful at all to the public and media is not my concern. so you know, we get enough of the very heavily blacked out document that is somewhat incomprehensible but we may will your honor learn a thing or two. >> cal, give us a sense of the color in the courtroom around where you are.

>> i should start by saying we had a team in the courtroom. i was attached to this live camera monitor and things outside. there are throngs of media here and the security here is quite tight. the reason for that is not just what's being discussed, but there have been death threats against the judge, judge reinhardt. they are working with federal authorities. it gives you an idea of the circus surrounding this. this area behind me is for protestors and demonstrators. we have seen trump supporters circling the courthouse in jeeps with flags, but they have been small crowds. interestingly enough, and i don't want to step on what anyone said before me, the doj talked about this. the atmosphere, the safety when it comes to witnesses and when it comes to what happened after the search. the political atmosphere as they put it in the court as for a reason why some of these things

should stay sealed. we'll know more next week. >> cal perry, thank you. danny and carol to you from the legal analyst perspective. does this surprise you? i think people thought the judge is more likely to side with the doj because you typically tend to see the judicial branch err on the side of caution. >> this is one of those cases where i start thinking, have i been doing it wrong in my own cases all this time? because this was a no brainer. this would have been denied. i expect when you ask judge lam, she would deny a motion to unseal an affidavit of probable cause when the investigation is still going on. it just isn't done. i have to wonder what about all the regular people who have search warrants executed on their home who nobody's ever heard of.

will they be able to go get their affidavit unsealed by a judge? my suspicious is that answer is a big no. i think this is a unique case and that the judge is even considering releasing information, not only is surprising us, i expect those lawyers from the doj are going back to their offices and are nonplussed. i expect they're very surprised. i'm sure they thought this motion hearing would go a different direction. >> carol, give me your perspective here. >> i agree completely with danny that this is not the way the justice department expected this to go. they did everything they could to tamp down the actual execution of the search warrant. they went in in plain clothes. they waited until the president was out of town. they did not publicize what was going on. it was the president himself who brought this to the nation's attention. i agree with danny that it is so highly unusual for even this issue to come up about the

unsealing of a probable cause affidavit, but when the judge decided to grant a hearing, i did begin to suspect that he may go down the route of perhaps talking about redactions. and there's a lot in a search warrant that is not going to tell you a whole lot that can be made public. an agent's prior experience with cases. the importance of classified documents. all that sort of thing, but the important thing to remember is if the justice department does not agree with the judge regarding what can be redacted or what can be released, they can appeal this to the district court then the appellate court and if necessary, to the supreme court. so the nothing is going to get released anytime soon unless the justice department agree to it. >> i think that's important expectation setting, carol, because it's not as though the week from today when the doj hands in whatever its redactions are, we get to put it up on the tv screen and share it with

everybody. that's not how this is going to work. >> that's right. both sides can appeal. if the press is not happy with what is put out. the media is at a little bit of a disadvantage because they haven't seen the affidavit. it's only the judge and the prosecutors and the fbi who have seen this affidavit. >> ken, and cal, i'm going to come back to you in a second, but danny, in talking about your surprise that the judge ruled this way. you said an average joe probably wouldn't get this treatment. but that's the point here. donald trump is not an average joe. he's a former president and there's a unique public interest here and accountability factor in understanding the rationale and seeing that affidavit, at least on the part of the american people. where do you think the government fell short in making its case then? >> i don't think they fell short. i've read their papers and they correctly site case law that says this is the kind of thing that is routinely denied and as much the judge should recognize

that there is an interest generally in keeping court documents unsealed. generally they should be public. sealing is not the default position. it's not the preferred position. but there is an exception for investigative materials in a pending investigation. that's why when doj said hey, we want the warrant and the property receipt released, that was easy. because it's essentially doj's choice to release and the judge kind of rubber stamps that decision so when in this case, doj opposed the unsealing of the affidavit of probable cause, that should have been the end of it. the judge really should have deferred to doj. look, i'm saying this as a biased defense attorney. doj has a strong argument that revealing information in an affidavit of probable cause, which by the way, is a persuasive document full of interesting information to

persuade a judge to issue a search warrant. so it's not everything the doj has, but it's usually my favorite thing to review if i want a summary of a case. much better than an indictment. an affidavit of probable cause, a good idea to give you where this case is going. >> there are legal and political implications. we know those around the former president want this unsealed. he said he wants it unsealed. some of his allies want it unsealed. there's a risk that could backfire because we don't know what else is in this. we don't know if what is -- we know the who, what, where, and when of the search at mar-a-lago. we don't know the why. and that is potentially a jump ball. >> and let's be clear. you know this better than anybody else, donald trump can change his mind at any moment and decide he doesn't want it sealed and make that public. your point is the right one. midterm's around the corner.

doj is keeping their eyes on that. it plays into the hands of one of the groups. here's what was said in court, quote, this is a doj official. this is a volatile situation with respect to this particular search address on the political spectrum. especially quote with one side in particular. so the department of justice is saying aloud to the judge and the public that they are well aware of what is at stake here. the word unprecedented was thrown around this court all day by members of the media and department of justice. so nobody has misgivings about that. your point about whether or not the trump camp, and again, his lawyers were in court today, but we did not hear from them, whether or not they want this affidavit released is very much going to depend on what it shows. they are using this as an excuse to say the dark state, deep state, is keeping secrets from us. and keep in mind, doj says quote, that this investigation is in the quote, early stages.

i think that's definitely something we learned today. >> cal, let me go to you and new reporting we're getting. kristen welker reporting that a source familiar says there are discussions inside trump world about potentially releasing surveillance video. noting a final decision doesn't appear to be imminent. we know eric trump signalled as much on fox news. would there be significance to seeing this search or is this a play by potentially those around the former president to draw attention to something other than what we're talking about here at the moment? >> i can tell you the fbi would see deep significance negatively if this footage was released because it would show the faces of agents conducting the search and that's the last thing law enforcement officials want in this climate of threats and rhetoric. that's why they asked, we were told they asked the trump team to turn off the cameras during the search and that was declined so there is that footage and in terms of how it could play, it

could cut both ways. the trump folks clearly think the images of fbi agents, even though they weren't wearing their raid jackets, they were in polos or jeans, swarming through the president's compound, grabbing boxes. that could be seen to some people as some kind of judicial overreach. on the other hand, it's law enforcement agents carrying out boxes in a legally sanctioned search. so it could backfire. could end up looking bad for the president, but one thing is clear is that the fbi would not want that video publicized and would ask news organizations not to air the faces of fbi agents. >> one of the things ken mentioned was this climate of threats. we've seen this joint bulletin warning the temperature's just hotter now after the search at mar-a-lago. there's a warning now for federal law enforcement agents to be more cautious. we have talked about the threats against judge reinhardt himself.

as a former judge yourself, do you think that those threats are affecting judge reinhardt in the way he's doing his job or as a judge, do you conpartmentalize yourself from the culture outside the courtroom? >> i think it would be wrong of me to speculate as to why judge reinhardt is ruling the way he is ruling now. i think that because this is so unprecedented on both sides, it's likely he's just thinking that he's just thinking it's, it's fair to both sides to say there is an interest on one side and on the other and maybe there's a place we can get to where i can give a little bit of satisfaction to both sides. personally, i don't think that's the case. i think we're going down a very, very dangerous road. and i don't think while i don't think the judge is influenced by threats on his life because that is the job of a judge and he appears to be a very good one,

to conpartmentalize things, the risk here is that in the future, agents are going to be a little bit concerned about putting everything into the search warrant affidavit and that is not something you want your agents to feel. you don't want to have any kind of chilling effect on the agents telling everything they think is relevant to the magistrate judge who's reading the probable cause affidavit. so when you do things, you have to be aware of the potential consequences and i think that we're going to have to see how this fleshes out in the end with respect to what is and what is not released, but i have deep questions about investigations in the future. >> thank you both for your legal analysis. coming up, the ukrainian military says russia just told workers at the biggest nuclear plant in europe, don't come to work tomorrow. plus, the man accused of brutally stabbing salman rushdie

just indicted by a grand jury. but first, allen weisselberg is heading to prison after pleading to guilty to a 15-year tax scheme. we'll talk about how his plea deal could affect his former boss, after the break. t his forr boss, after the break. unlock new insights and efficiency-right now. allow monitoring of productivity at remote job sites, with next-generation bandwidth. enable ai cameras that spot factory issues in real time, using next-generation speed. and deliver ultra-capacity 5g coverage that's years ahead of the competition. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now.

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the trump organization's money man pleading guilty today. allen weisselberg admitting to avoiding paying taxes on $1.7 million worth of income in what prosecutors call this quote, off the books scheme to help top trump org officials not pay taxes. weisselberg, who's nearly 75, agrees to serve five months. also part of the plea, he's expected to cooperate in the upcoming trial against the trump organization. joining me now, tim winter, who remains in new york city for us.

an important distinction in this, it's cooperation expected in the case against the trump organization but not in anything based on your understanding that would implicate his former boss personally. >> yeah. i think that's exactly right and when you look at the case and what we've seen and the way this deal came together and i think also the lack of any sort of additional investigative activity that we've heard about. when was the last time i came on tv and talked to you and said hey, hallie, we hear this person was brought before the grand jury or we hear a new subpoena went out in the trump case and this is what the manhattan d.a.'s office is asking potential witnesses. we haven't talked about that in almost a year. when you look at that and the lack of activity and the fact that allen weisselberg here, if he has something to offer and there's a lot of people in the legal community that know the trump organization that have said they think he does have a

lot to offer, they have put a lot of weight on his shoulders. he turned 75 just a couple of days ago. he's going to one of the infamous jails in the country, rikers island here in new york city, to serve out that sentence for five months. his attorneys put out a statement saying approximately 100 days, he's taking into account time off for good behavior, but when you look at this, you look at somebody here that is not really providing any sort of assistance it appears in any sort of investigation directly involving the former president of the united states. now as far as this company, that's a different matter. weisselberg was charged last summer. we were right outside of this courthouse when he was indicted on 15 counts. today in court in a very soft voice and hushed tones, agrees he did everything that prosecutors laid out at that time. so when you look at that case and the trump organization that was charged at the same time,

nearly identical conduct. he said he did all that. he was the money man who ran the books for the trump organization at the time. it's likely his testimony will be quite damaging to the trump organization when they go the trial late october. >> tom winter live for us there in manhattan. thank you. just in the last hour, the man indicted for attacking author salman rushdie was in court. ron allen is joining us with more on the case. what do we know about the charges, what's next and any news about rushdie's recovery? >> the charges are second degree murder and assault. he's 24 years old from new jersey. what we don't know is why he allegedly did this. there was some sense of that in an interview he did with the "new york post" a couple of days ago where he said things like he didn't like this person, rushdie. he is someone who has attacked islam. he said he did not think that

rushdie would survive the attack and he said that he respects iran's religious leaders, but didn't say whether or not he was inspired by the spot wa issued in iran from 30 years ago to kill rushdie -- which some in the muslim world feel is an insult to the prophet, mohammed. unclear whether there's a connection. they have said rushdie is to blame for this himself. something the united states has called disgusting and despicable. as for the writer's condition, he is still hospitalized. has very severe, life altering injuries, his family has said. may lose an eye, has nerve damage in an arm. he was stabbed about a dozen times by this man allegedly with a knife. audience members at this event raced to rushdie's aid and

tackled the man until he was arrested by police. so again, he's facing second degree attempted murder, second degree assault charges which carry up to 25 years in prison if convicted. he has plead not guilty and we still don't know why he did this and if there's some connection to some extremists around the world. >> ron allen, thank you for that. still ahead, the white house is set to give out 50,000 monkeypox vaccines in certain areas. is it too little too late? mitch mcconnell catching folks attention with what he said about republicans chances in the midterms. we'll tell you what he said in kentucky coming up. we'll tell yn kentucky coming up new astepro allergy. no allergy spray is faster. with the speed of astepro, almost nothing can slow you down. because astepro starts working in 30 minutes, while other allergy sprays take hours. and astepro is the first and only 24-hour steroid free allergy spray.

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diabetes, being overweight, asthma, or smoking. even if symptoms feel mild, these factors can increase your risk of covid-19 turning severe. so, if you're at high risk and test positive - don't wait - ask your healthcare provider right away if an authorized oral treatment is right for you. new comments today just in in mitch mcconnell. suggesting in public on camera that his party he thinks will probably stay in the minority after the midterms. watch. >> i think the, there's a probably a greater likelihood the house flips than the senate. senate races are just different. they're statewide. candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. >> those new comments coming as

some of his allies are making changes in their election strategy. one group aligned with mcconnell, pumping $28 million into ohio to prop up j.d. vance there. i want to bring in sahill. in some ways, mcconnell is acknowledging what many people have observed here. you look at a political report that's just shifted in pennsylvania, colorado, and utah, saying those races are maybe a little less likely to go republican. obviously, utah still likely republican. but what's interesting, his reference to candidate quality style. >> that's right. it shows a real apprehension that republicans might fall short of capturing a senate majority this year as a result of candidates. now, mcconnell picks his words carefully. would not have used the phrase if he didn't have concerns.

while he didn't name, it's not difficult to tell who he was talking about. dr. oz has been struggling against fedderman. moved to lean democrat, which is remarkable for such a swing state. oz keeps getting dumped on for his ties to new jersey. spent the last few days having to talk more about this odd video regarding what he put out in ohio. mcconnell allies spending $28 million to prop up j.d. vance. that state should be a layup for republicans. donald trump won it by eight points even though he lost it overall by four and a half points. there are other senate races where republicans have nominated untested first time candidates like in georgia and arizona. states like new hampshire where they did not get their prize recruit. you can add arizona to that list. they did not get the governor of that state they wanted. mcconnell having a little deja

vu when republicans had a good shot at winning control of the senate both years, but nominated extreme candidates like todd aiken, richard murdoch, christine o'donnell in those two cycles and fell short. all that said, mcconnell's not giving up hope for this. sounds like he's managing expectations, lowering expectations that republicans will get that, saying democrats will either be up slightly in the end. it's very different than the way he talked about 2014 when he was extremely bullish. rightfully so. after republicans got the candidates they wanted and swept that year. >> thank you. the white house today making new moves against the monkeypox outbreak, making another 1.8 million doses available to states starting monday. the biden administration says they'll set aside 50,000 vaccines for quote large events that attract gay, bisexual and other men who have sex. it is not a sexually transmitted

disease. it can affect anybody. kristen, talk about the when and the why here. why the white house is doing this now and the strategy behind it. >> well, the why is because they feel as though and they've been criticized for being flat footed on yet another public health emergency and so they are trying to ramp up this response and make it more aggressive. of course, you have that announcement that they are going to be distributing another 1.8 million vaccines. they've already distributed 1 million, but this comes amid these staggering numbers. more than 13,000 cases across the u.s. 39,000 cases worldwide. no one has died here in the u.s. that is the good news and they are targeting these communities they feel are being disproportionately affected. one of the events at the charlotte pride festival will be an event where they have a strong public health presence to make sure people are getting

vaccinated. i want to point to the fact it's not just about the vaccine. it's about the treatment. what is called t pox. they want to make this more readily available to people dealing with monkeypox. dawn o'connell, the hhs assistant secretary, said this. she said this is not a static response. we are continuing to assess where we are, evaluate what we need and make improvements in realtime. i think that's the thinking here behind the scenes. it's worth noting it comes on the heels of that news yesterday that you and i were talking about, the cdc, after having an outside investigation, realized and made the determine in addition that they need to have a reset and really have an overhaul of how it approached its preparedness. i think you're seeing an extension of that play out as it relates to monkeypox. >> kristen welker on the north lawn. thank you. coming up, why russia is telling its workers at europe's

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boost® high protein also has key nutrients for immune support. boost® high protein. . now to the war in ukraine with president zelenskyy meeting today with the leaders of turkey and the united nations with a big topic. grain and how to get exports moving out of the country. also today, a top ukrainian official was talking with nbc news about what could be an upcoming false flag operation and that's something random. it's something that involves europe's biggest nuclear power plant. josh letterman is our correspondent behind that reporting. josh, we first learned about this when russia told workers at the plant, hey, don't come to work tomorrow. tell us more about it. >> well, tonight, ukrainian military intelligence is saying that employees of the russian state-run nuclear company were told today if they are onsite to get out of there ahead of what

both ukraine and russia are predicting may be some type of provocation at the plant tomorrow just to explain to people, there's some double negatives here. russia controls this plant. they have occupied this territory. ukrainian nuclear officials are still nominally running it, but russia also has its own nuclear officials on the site and for weeks now, as there has been shelling at this plant, russia has said to ukraine, russia is shelling it itself in order to blame ukraine as part of a false flag operation. so today when russia's defense ministry said that they were expecting some type of a provocation there tomorrow, ukrainian officials said that sounds a lot like russia laying the ground work to attack the plant itself tomorrow, but hoping to prepare the population to blame it on ukraine. and so now both sides are really bracing for what could take place there tomorrow.

both ukrainian and russian officials have been holding decontamination drills, practicing what they would do to try to clear radiation after a potential nuclear incident and today, the head of the ukrainian nuclear energy company, urged pregnant women and children who are still in the city of zaporizhzhia near that nuclear plant, to leave. to evacuate now. saying they are at the highest risk for potential radiation if it were to spread. at the same time, we saw the u.n. secretary general today in ukraine urging russia to take its military troops and equipment and leave that nuclear site hoping that iaea, u.n. nuclear inspectors will be able to get to the site to make sure it's safe. so far, there are no indications that russia plans to leave the site or to allow access to international inspectors. >> thank you for that. still ahead, the one area of

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the first reaction coming in this hour from an nfl quarterback at the center of a suspension controversy. we're talking about desean watson. facing cameras now for the first time since the new punishment, reaching an agreement to suspend him for 11 games. he was accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct and is ordered to pay a $5 million fine. the nfl says the money from the fine will go to support non-profits, focused on the prevention of sexual misconduct and assault. in this news conference after the announcement, watson said he apologized to all women, but says he's innocent. he's not been charged with the crime. you've covered this story. this player. it is a more serious suspension than initially announced. what's your takeaway this

afternoon? >> it is more serious than initially announced. it is not as serious as the nfl was seeking. they were seeking at least a full season. the initial suspension was six games. so this seems like the compromise. this being said, i think you know every person has to evaluate for themselves how much punishment is enough or too much for a player who was accused of sexual misconduct over two dozen women. >> i wonder what you make of some of the comments from the owner of the browns who said people deserve second chances. from roger goodell, that watson is committed to doing hard work on himself. >> i have a couple of thoughts on that. one is that those two statements seem to contradict watson himself today where he admitted no wrong doing. he said he didn't, he hasn't harmed anybody and the excuse he gave was he apologized last week because some woman felt triggered is what he said. on the second chances front, this is something that people say all the time whenever athletes are given second and

third chances. and yes, people absolutely deserve second chances and one mistake should not preclude somebody from living the rest of their life. but i think that statement, we have more than 24 women that we are counting as one chance that watson has had and i don't agree with that. >> always good to have you. thank you for that. new numbers show the housing market may be the first economic sector potentially to fall into a recession because home sales have fallen nearly 6% in just the last month. they're down 20% since this time last year. so a chief economist for the national association of realtors which compiled the data, tells nbc we are surely, in their view, in a housing recession because builders are not building. i want to bring in cnbc's senior real estate correspondent, diana oleic. help us understand what this means if you're thinking about selling your house or buying or if you have a house or would

like to eventually have a house some day. >> well that's a lot. we are in a housing slowdown and the chief economist for the realtor said it. also for the homebuilder said the same monday. that's because we're seeing construction come down. we're not going to get any help on the inventory side. we're not going to see the more homes for sale we really need in this market. on the flip side, there's a lot less competition. no more bidding wars like we saw barely six months ago because there's not much competition out there. again, with affordable being as we can as it is, rates sky high, it's not that kind of market anymore. so for sellers, they can't expect to get the multiple offers they were getting. and for buyers, maybe it's a little easier to get a home now. you don't have to say no contingencies or inspection. you can put those on your offer. and you shouldn't bid for the sky. you know, things are coming down a bit. prices not yet, but they may

soon. >> is most of this related to this coming down to like a lack of inventory here or is it also an affordability factor in some ways? >> it's all about affordability. it is mortgage rates. we started this year on 3% fixe and we then shot up to over 6% in june and that's why those july numbers you talked about and the sales numbers came down sharply because they were contractses that were made in june and then closed in july. we are seeing affordability weaken dramatically. a year ago the average on the 30-year fix side 2.9 and you're adding hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the same home you wish you'd bought a year ago. it's also a concern about the broader economy and inflation when you're paying so much more for inflation and do you want to see this massive home purchase. >> what is the next big thing that you'll be looking for, then, that will help you give you more of a sense of where the market is going? >> prices, prices for sure.

if home sales are coming down and why are prices not lower and prices are still up over 11% from a year ago and it's the supply and demand imbalance and you have strong demand for the home buying years and very low supply. as we said the builders are not building the way they need to, so you have that pressure still on prices. the gains, i will say, are starting to shrink. so while prices are up 11% over a year ago, they were up over 20% from a year ago, and we'll watch those price gains shrink and in some markets, some local, very hot markets of the past you might see prices come down. remember, prices are up over 40% nationwide since the start of the pandemic. so even if they come down a little bit we are nowhere near where we were two years ago. >> cnbc's diana oleic, thank you. >> we know ron johnson seems to have a hill to climb as he seeks to be re-elected and now the

wisconsin republican is telling us how he'll try to get to the top of the hill like going through a reband like ron john 3.0. his popularity has been declining and you add in another challenge for johnson. he is set to go up against mandela barnes, a 35-year-old progressive who is the state's first black lieutenant governor and now the poll has barnes leading johnson by something like seven points. nbc news senior political reporter is on the byline for that piece for us. you talked with senator johnson and he said something about his rebranding, natasha. he says i'm trying to tell people who i am and i'm pretty proud of what i've accomplished in life in private life and as senator and senator johnson has been among those people who have been skeptical of the legitimate results of the 2020 election to say the least. let's just say it that way. talk about the rebranding. what else did he tell you? >> it's interesting.

first of all, it's very clear that what democrats have been doing so far is getting under his skin. they don't like them portraying him as a washington insider who is disconnected from wisconsin. he's trying to go positive somewhat of a surprise because republicans were making such a big deal about he's so easy to beat and we'll hit him hard in the beginning. he's driving up his own favorables and he needs to do that as you pointed out with the poll results and he's going back to basics and he's saying, hey, i'm from the midwest. remember me? a middle-class upbringing and he talks about baling hay as a child and the ads going up and the first one is a very positive ad. that's kind of where he's attempting to start. he does not like that mandela barnes is positioning himself as

the working-class candidate, and he needs to come in and swoop in because he knows what it's like to be a wisconsinite. ron johnson thinks, no way, that's me. he's attempting to do that, but as you pointed out, this is going to be a really tall hill to climb. for someone like ron johnson who was elected in 2010 until now to try to rebrand himself in wisconsin. >> how much, when you're talking with folks in and around wisconsin, people who understand the dynamics, how much do some of the things that senator johnson has said related to 2020, et cetera, related to the fake elector scheme, et cetera, make a difference? >> it does make a difference with independents. and independents really don't like to talk about 2020. they want to move on. there's a small slice of independents in wisconsin, but they're really, really significant meaning that these races sometimes come down to less than 1% and it's the

independents who often tilt the race, and if you look at the marquette poll recently, you have a couple of things. independents do not like talk of 2020. they want to move on. independents favored barnes significantly, 62% for barnes and 38% for johnson. the problem for ron johnson is there are fewer and fewer persuadable voters out there and most voters know him and they've made up their mind. with mandela barnes, a lot of unknown and that can be a blessing and a curse. if he can really come out and koven vince people that he's the right person for wisconsin then he can win over that big, you know, unknown gap. ron johnson is moving away from donald trump which means he's trying to move away from 2020 and talk of the 2020 electors. we asked him up close in milwaukee, hey, would you ask donald trump to come campaign with you to endorse you and he

would not mention trump by name. he would not say that he would welcome him. he simply said i support anyone who wants to endorse me can endorse me. i've never been against it. so that's much different talk than what we've been hearing from him for the last -- yeah. four years, at least. natasha, great reporting. thank you for being with us. appreciate you watching msnbc reports as well and watch highlights of the show on @hallieonmsnbc. walk tonight and every week night for show number two weeknights at 5:00 eastern. "deadline: white house" with nicole wallace starts right after the break. starts right after the break. has been

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♪♪ ♪♪ aloha, hola and namaste. it is 4:00 p.m. in new york city, everyone. i'm john heilemann in for nicole wallace one more time where we are dealing with these realities. since the start of this week the most highly anticipated development with the justice department's unprecedented investigation into the disgraced twice- impeached, disgraced, duplicitous ex-president has been at a court hearing today in south florida over the release of the affidavit used b