lo. it will release your fat and it will release you. hello, everyone. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc

headquarters in new york city, a huge turnaround, the cook political report has new analysis showing it's a toss-up. that's a pretty stunning shift from months ago, where headline after headline predicted a republican wave. thanks to a string of legislative wins and galvanizing issues like abortion, democrats now have motivation and momentum on their side. on the other side, many far-right republicans are struggling, unable to connect with moderate -- >> i'm at wegner's. my wife wants some vegetables for crudite. this is $20, and we have joe biden to thank for this. >> john fetterman has been fund-raising off that video all

week. this is the kind of thing that mitch mcconnell to admit he has concerns. >> i think there's a greater likelihood that the house flips than the senate. senate races are different. they're statewide. candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. >> looking at various numbers, you can see the shift happening in real time. politico shows democrats up four points, matching their biggest lead. new polls from fox news shows democrats leading in two key toss-up raises. in arizona mark kelly out for an eight-point lead. mendela barnes leading ron johnson by four. if you want to know how races are changing, follow the money. democrats are prepared to spend $10 million to promote the latest bill. some republicans are having such

a hard time raising money that the nrsc is shifting cash to defend gop seats that they can't afford to lose, like ohio, pennsylvania, and north carolina. i want to bring in sahil kapur, charlie cook is the founder of cook political report. great to have you all here. sahil, did i just hear mitch mcconnell trying to manage expectations? >> reporter: i think that's a kind way to put it. that sounded like him throwing a bit of shade at republican candidates who are struggling perhaps more than they need to be. let's start with the quartet of trump-endorsed republicans in crucial swing states who are first-time candidates. black masters in arizona, mehmet

oz, is struggling mightily against john fetterman. j.d. vance in ohio, who has not put the state away, and herschel walker in georgia, who many republicans have had concern regarding his past. three of these have ugly primaries while their democratic opponents ran unchallenged, coasted to the nomination. then in wisconsin there's multi-term ron johnson struggling seen as more extreme than hi democratic opponent, according to a fox neu poll. republicans can't be losing bandy. mcconnell did not mention some of the other factors working against his party, starting with the supreme court overturning roe versus wade, that mcconnell had a lot to do with. there's the fact that gas prices have been declining, which is helping democrats as the party

in power somewhat. just a few months ago, democrats were stuck in legislative quicksand, now they're on a hot streak, with messages to appeal to swing voters, as well as the democratic base. you put all of that together, and the signs of a red wave appear to be receding and mcconnell seems to be giving voice to that. >> sahil, thank you for that. charlie, i want to read what's on your web it's this. however, the most probable may be a net change of zero or a gop pickup of 1 to 2. this isn't a situation where suddenly ds are going to have a big lead way ahead, but it is different from the big red wave we were talking about a few months ago. explain what you see as fueling the democrats here. do you think that they have momentum? >> that was written by jessica taylor, our senate editor, but i

agree completely. i think what you could say is 90 days ago there was like a 75-mile-an-hour tailwind for republicans. everything seemed to be going their way one said it reminded them of the ronald reagan landslide over jimmy carter. then you had the dodd decision, some democrats moving legislation for once, a series of breaks, so that now i think instead of a 75-mile-an-hour tailwind for republicans, it's about only like 20. and that they've got some sub-optimal candidates who could win with a 75-mile-an-hour tailwind, but maybe not if it's only, you know, 10 or 15 or 20 miles per hour, particularly arizona, georgia and pennsylvania. so it's the loss of a tailwind and democrats just getting more engaged. you know, as the house shows, i

don't nobody anybody predicting anybody in the house. that shows the gravitational pull, but i think mcconnell was simply being very candid that they don't have the candidates to match the environment. >> let me make another historical comparison, charlie. could this be like 2010 and 2012, where the republicans lost winnable seats because of the candidates like todd akin or kristina o'donnell, or whether they can overcome these weaker candidates, what exactly are you looking for? >> 2010 i think is the best analogy. it was a really good environment for republicans, but it wasn't good enough for extremely weak candidates, candidates with real huge negatives. and i think it's more -- that's more analoanalogous, but you ha cycling in a row, 2010 and 2012,

where a lack of strong candidates kept republicans from getting over the top and getting the majority, which they were not able to do until 2014. but there has been a loss of momentum, and i still think that president biden economy are liabilities, but just not the liabilities they were 90 days ago. we'll see what it's like 80-some days from today. >> jimmy, rick scott is head of the senatorial committee, spending money, said on "face the nation" earlier this month. >> this election will be about joe biden, and so this election is going to be about all the bad things that have happened. the fact we're going into recession, the fact in a inflation is 5%, that's what people are looking at. >> so i think some of that argument still holds, right? inflation is still high, even though gas prices have come

down, so why -- what are democrats doing to overcome that? eugene? >> yeah, some of these sitting democrats we're talking about, they're running ahead of biden in their polls, right? with biden -- he was in the 30s, coming up to the 40s, they're in the high 40s and, you know, sometimes 50s, depending on what poll you're looking at. then you have the administration is -- all of these legislative wins, they had such a high cliff, right? and the democrats being able to be on the offensive, so they're hitting the -- this administration will find the league, tell the story to the american people, and democrats down the ballot will be doing the same thing. they finally have a simple message to tell, right? politics is best when you can say something very simple to folks. what they have is we use government to makes lives better, period. that's what they are finally

able to do to be on the offensive. i will say, you know, administration is feeling good. they feel like people are starting to see president biden in a different light. we haven't seen that show up in a bunch of polling, so caution them and other people as we're watching, there's so much time between now and the actual election, and things change, what, in like 2 1/2 weeks for democrats? that could happen again. what we've seen with republicans, is with these candidates who have, you know, all types of different issues, probably about six states where they felt really good about it at one point, now they have to spend the money or shift the money away from the states. that means you're pulling money from different places. it will make it more different for republicans who are in charge of making sure that they hold on to the senate -- excuse me -- flip the senate, and that's something they weren't expecting to do. in the house, people are going

to be able to -- i think when i talk to republicans last week, they expected maybe 60 seats. they won't have that any more, either. so will the environment change? it could, but if democrats do it the right way, it could be a much easier november for them than beforeful. >> but i do keep looking, eugene, and i know you keep watching this as well, looking at the money. when you're struggling to raise money in an environment, frankly where none of us -- well, charlie and i remember it 10 or 20 years ago, the numbers are off the charts with how much money is being spent in these races. i just came back from wyoming. so if you're looking at those races, i mean, there is a big question about how much, eugene, the republican party or donald trump, who's got plenty

of money, has been raising money like crazy, is willing to shift off to the candidacies that are struggling. >> yeah -- >> there was a call with the nrsc just last month, where they talked about oz. for them, he wasn't a great candidate. people were starting to see him essentially as a carpetbagger, because if thorman was hitting him that way, and where is our path? yesterday they want, you know, don't worry, we're going to be spending more money as we move forward, but they went through a bruising primary. now and right after labor day is a perfect time to get voters a better view. if they don't do that, they'll be in worse trouble.

>> eugene daniels -- charlie, a really quick comment, charlie? >> we've been 12 minutes without mentioning donald trump's name, and i think things have gone from the focal point on president biden and congress not able to do anything, that the focus has shifted over. i don't think they feel much better about president biden, but i think the focus is more on republicans being obsessed with abortion and president trump refusing to leave the stage. i think that's changed the orientation of this race a good bit. >> we'll till to talk about that. we'll have you both back. thank you no being with us. meantime, the fate of the mar-a-lago search affidavit remains in limbo. and questions about why the former president has reformally -- hasn't formally

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the judge could order the affidavit released. of course, he send the doj back to decide which to redact. but the faster, cleaner route is

the president could ask the judge to release it. but he hasn't. that search, of course, leaves us with the questions asked by tim weiner in "new york times." what is in those files? where do they come from? whose fingerprints are on them? and who shows up on the sir vailian tape from the mansion, that shows who went in and out of the rooms where they are hidden. if the affidavit is unseal, we may get answers to some of the questions. for more let's bring in mar caputo, joyce vance, and katy -- mark, you were in court yesterday. what more have you expecting to see from this judge? >> not a heck of a lot. john rhine hard is a former federal prosecutor. he's aware of the stuff we really want to know about, how the investigation happened, what witnesses are saying, the juicy

criminal stuff is going to be kept under wraps. the justice department made the argument you can't release this stuff. if you do, it will identify sources, methods, and they talked about how the judge had found probable cause that donald trump had obstructed justice. i don't expect a heck of a lot to come out of it. having that been said, a little more information will go a long way. as both sides said, the longer it goes on, the more of a blackout, the more it's filled with conspiracy theories and lies. we're sort of in this position where we're groping around in the dark trying to figure out what is and is not. >> last night donald trump's lawyer was asked about why they

does request that. he's what she said. >> you had parties from both sides of the aisle, liberal media outlets, coupled with a conservative watch dog group together on the same side. we were curious to see how it played out, reserving our rights to try something else in the future if we want to. we just chose to see how it would play out. >> now they have seen how it's played out, at least up to this point. presumably thursday they'll see the rest of it, but let's say for some reason they decided to that. how quickly would they be released? and why might they be holding off? >> well, her comments are completely detached from how the law actually works. the news organizations have a far better case for release than trump does, and doj acknowledged that in its pleadings, where it says you have to balance the public's right to know versus the need for the criminal investigation to proceed unhampered. that's why i think mark's

comments are very accurate, when he says it's unlikely much, if anything, will be unsealed from this affidavit. trump's case isn't that good. his case is, i'm a subject, or maybe even a target of this investigation, and i'd like to know what the government is up to. you can only imagine how unappealing that case would be to courts that are, of course, charged with making sure that criminal investigations can proceed unhampered. the next thing you might imagine is the kingpin in a drug cartel coming into court after one of his drug houses is searched, judge, we would like a road map what the justice department will do next. it's a weak position, not one ultimately by the news organizations or trump, if they make that argued, would result in rapid release. it will have to go through layers of appeal before it was finally decided. >> there are also rumors that

the trump team is releasing footage of the search, and if they did could that influence how the judge moves forward? >> i think if it influences the judge if they were to do it, it wouldn't be in a positive way for the trump camp. we don't know what this footage looks like, but one of the fears is there might be a release of classified material implicit in the release of this videotape. it's extraordinary for a search to be conducted and videotaped in this fashion, and there are a lot of issues involving the integrity of the procedure. i don't really have a problem, chris, with the notion of the search itself being taped. it's the idea that the former president would be so cavalier in an ongoing way about the risk to national security information. >> so, katie, if all of this is happening while the january 6th commit year is working kind of quietly. it's been holding a lot of

depositions, we haven't seen a lot, what is your reporting telling you. do we know what they're working on right now, where their focus is? >> i think what we know is they've seen it as being more forthcoming than the first round. people have felt it was in their best interesting to speak to the committee to tell their version of the events, and i think that what we should expect is in the fall, when hearings resume, they will include this new material, and liz cheney will be incentivized to make them as captivaing as possible and focused on donald trump as much as possible, and his culpability, especially as she figures out what to do. sheets thinking about how best to go in the spotlight, how best to keep the heat on trump, and whether or not any of this can be used for other political activities. >> given the fact that obviously

the clock is ticking to the end of the year, and we'll see exactly what happens with the makeup of the new congress, we know that certainly the committee is likely to change, so what are you hearing about their timing, and any pressure they're feeling about wrapping up? >> i think they have said time and again they wanted to wrap up in the fall, but because of the sheer amount of the information and how much they feel is in the public interest, they're going to keep going until think say their work is done. elections is coming up, but congress doesn't really change until 2023. even if there's a huge wipeout? november, they will have more to hold more hearings and produce a report that is as fullsome and as detailed as possible. >> thank you all very much. growing fears of a potential nuclear disaster in ukraine, as europe's largest nuclear plant remains under russian control. you're watching "chris jansing

you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. calife

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in ukraine, fear and quigs as ukraine and russia trade

accusations about the threat at the nuclear plant. it's the largest plant in europe. now families have begun fleeing the area, because there are rumors of an impending false flag attack and potential for a nuclear disaster. josh, do we have any ideas what is happening at the plant today? >> reporter: it's been very hard to get information from that plant, which is in russian-controlled territory. there are military troops on the site of that nuclear plant, chris. so far we haven't seen any reports of explosions or other incidents there, though it's just getting to be nightfall here. in the past where there's been shelling here, it has come at nighttime. people in that community, even beyond, throughout ukraine and europe, are bracing to see what will happen this even as

ukraine's state-run energy company says russia now plans to disconnect that plant from the power grid, potentially even shut the plant down. we know pregnant women and children have been urged to leave the area, because they would be at the greatest risk for radiation. the greatest focus in the international committee, can they get inspectors from the united nations on site and make sure security procedures are being followed. today we saw president putin spoke with president macron in france. according to both countries, putin agreed to allow inspectors in, but the question is when, and will it be soon enough to avert a catastrophe. meantime in the last hour and a half, a judge sentenced a british man who wok with isis to life in prison to torturing and killing mention. he's known part of the four as the isis beetles.

they murdered several people. sit understand that not only at the hearing, but obviously from the judge, we also heard from james foley's mother afterwards. what did hef to say? >> diane foley said it was an important moment for accountability. it showed if you torture and murder american citizens, our government will not forget. here is more from diane foley. >> today is the eighth anniversary of our son jim's gruesome beheading by isis, but today we remember four extraordinary young americans, kayla mueller, peter cassic, steven sotloff, and our son jim foley. these braves americans saw the suffering of the syrian people

and decided to help, whether it was by providing humanitarian aid or by telling the world about the tragic syrian crisis. >> chris, el sheikh is likely to serve his life prison in a super-max prison, most of him time alone and locked in a cell. the justice department did take the death penalty off the table in this case in a deal with the british government back in 12020, this was refuse to go tern over evidence unless capital punishment was ruled out. he was convicted in april after an emotional two-week trial that featured the testimony of 12 former captives who detailed torture by this group known as the beatles. another beatle was convicted back in april, and a third was, jihadi john was killed in a u.s.

drone strike in syria back in 2015. ken dilanian, thank you for that. there's new research just out that could provide some hope. and new details about pelotonie pox. the whoa official in charge of monkeypox response will join me next. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market when you really need to sleep. you reach for the whreally good stuff.ol helps you plan your trades zzzquil ultra helps you sleep better and longer when you need it most. its non-habit forming and powered by the makers of nyquil. ♪ ♪

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ever notice how stiff clothes can feel rough on your skin? for softer clothes that are gentle on your skin, try downy free & gentle downy will soften your clothes without dyes or perfumes. the towel washed with downy is softer, and gentler on your skin. try downy free & gentle. millions of americans are living with long covid right now. while there's still little understanding of exactly what it is and how to treat it, new research is offering some potential answers. this study published in the lance et of psychiatrist says covid significantly increases the risk of dementia, psychosis

and brain fog two years later. on top of covid, the white house is now fighting to contain this spread of the monkeypox, announcing the latest plan to release 1.8 million doses on monday. i want to bring in the coordinator. dimitri, this is the first pandemic test since covid, and it's not even over yesterday. is this too late to contain the virus? >> thank you for having me. so, i think that the outbrake of monkeypox is really unprecedented and been defined by a lot of pivots. the normal approach to a monkeypox outbreak is to do what is called range vaccinate, to identify contacts and vaccinate the contacts. when that became clear that wasn't possible, the strategy pivoted, to really be more broad in terms of who has access to

vaccine. at that time there was also a supply/demand mismatch, so there was a lot of work as well as the newer strategy of five doses in one vial. >> i still want to ask the basic question, is this pivot, if not the vaccine roll-out, is the pivot coming too late to contain the virus? >> i think supply and demand will be matched now, so i think we are optimistic we'll have control of this outbreak. vaccine is one of the ways to do it, along with the really clear messaging to the populations at higher risk for monkeypox, specifically gay/bisexual men who have sex with other men. there's not just one way. it's a multi-domain strategy, and all of those tools have to be used to achieve the goal. >> as i'm sure you know, there

are still people questioning whether or not this shift was a good one, deciding to do five doses out of one vial. they argue the better way would have been to really maximize the dosage you had, full doses, use them against people who were indeed most at risk. there's an argue that suggested part of the problem is that this intra-dermal immunization involved a total of just so people who received both doses. are you confident of your strategy, our because this is fairly new, that there may be more pivots ahead? >> just to be clear, inter-dermal dosing is not new. there was a study from the '70s that we're currently trance lating from german to english, that showed the vaccine was safe. the effectiveness data based on laboratory-based evaluation of immunity responsible is strong data, an nih-sponsored study

that's been peer reviewed. the strength of the data is as strong as the data that that allows subcutaneous immunization. so we're confidence it will 23407b8 provide protection, but extend the number of arms that can vaccine in them. it's a win-win. it's also important to remember we're monitoring what's happening. so through vaccine effectiveness studies, as well as surveillance we'll keep close dibs on what is happening. >> i presume that also includes not just the efficaciousness of it, but also -- the efficacy of it, but also who is getting it. new york has releasing new data showing spark disparities in access, black men receiving the vaccine at a much lower rate. what are you doing to close that gap? >> convene is one of our top

price. the first is to increase supply. we have good examples of strategying happening in jurisdictions, but also on the federal side, one great example is our new announcement of actually having allocations specifically for a large focused events happening on the ground in the next few months. that really brings vaccine to where the people are, as opposed to have been people try to find the vaccine. a lot of the work that's happening is also focused on racial and ethic minorities. we're working as an example very closely with charlotte, north carolina, who for their pride event early focused on their populations, as well as atlanta or -- atlanta black gay pride. now, it's not just the event-based strategies. we're also making sure that now that we have more vaccine, the vaccine is getting to places

like our community health centers, as well as providers who serve communities that are living with hiv. and the ven diagram, the overlap is high between that of folks who are black and brown. >> we are seeing this research that points that sex between men is still largely fueling the spread, but on the cdc website, it still warns how much close personality skin-to-skin contact is likely to occur at the vent you plan to attend is something you should consider and they were looking at the return to college, for example. so help a lot of folks understand, what is your your message about transmission where and among who many it's most likely, and what people should do. >> great. thank you. the cdc released an mmwr about a week ago that showed up vast majority, 90% were among men who have sex with men.

94% of those individuals have reported sexual activity in the three weeks prior to their diagnosis. now, skin-to-skin contact is part of sexual activity, so sexual activity is the highest risk. with that said, there are other ways to get monkeypox. important to remember, it does not differentiate individuals based on sexual orient station, so we make sure people take precautions appropriate in different settings, which includes large events and other aspects of their lives. the biggest message, especially if you're a gay, bisexual or men who have sex with men, it's important to know it's circulating there are your community and if you have risk taskers, strategy that can

prevent exposure really important as we scale of vaccine accessibility. >> thank you so much for being with you. there is many questions we had for that. so let's go to coronavirus, because i'm wont to dig deeper. on set with the medical director of n dr. state's quarantine tee sites. we were talking about -- it's been a long time since we've been on set together. this study sounds scary, and i know people who have long covid increased risk of dementia, psychosis and brain fog. what are you seeing? is there any that stands out? >> first of all, so nice to see you in studio, in person. i'm so glad you are healthy and doing well. this is concerning. we know millions around the world have been affected, sadly have died, but so many more have

been affected. this recent study looked at people with covid and their symptoms. we found they noted 14 different neurological and psychiatric diagnoses, including, as you mentioned, dementia, seizures, as well as brain gog. they also noted depression and anxiety were also present, but that subsided. that that's consistent with other respiratory infections. and they noted they symptoms were also present in children. there's some limitations, however, so some of the limitations include that they don't know the severity, the duration or the onset. they do acknowledge there's more. >> reporter: that needs to be done, but this will clearly affect a lot of people. this is why it's best, honestly, chris, to prevent getting the

infection in the first place. >> so for the millions of people who no longer that's around option, and i know there's stud studies going on, how will this new data help to inform treatment? >> yeah, i'm always a fan of more science, more data, that's evidence based, because evidence-based studies will drive the research and the therapeutics, and other public health strategies. so i'm hoping that, as we get more and more data, it would help guide clinicians and public health appeared health systems efforts, to protect people and help them get the treatment they need. >> for the people who haven't had it, on -- or seemed to be have no symptoms, there was a store in the "los angeles times" about these at-home tests, getting a lot of false negatives, and a lot of folks have been trying to be good about it, they get the sniffles,

it's probably nothing, but they don't want to infect somebody else. what should we know about it, and if we're still not feeling great, do we need to get out of the at-home test to retest? >> ivan dealing with this a lot personally and professionally. they've been getting symptoms, negative, negative day after day. we're noticing this current variant, the omicron ba.5 is testing negative with the rapt tests, so it's to continue repeating that test several times, as long as you're having symptoms, but then if you're still testing negative, get the pcr test, which is more accurate, more sensitive. while you're symptomatic, wear a mask, isolate, and those are the guidelines for now. i would wait to see if the cdc will update the guidelines, but

that is the recommendation for now. dr. roy, so great to see you. coming up. frustration has been boiling over. the airlines are being put on notice. what that means for you and how a new tool might hem. tom companies tello will have all of this for us. s for us

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from dry and dull to firm and radiant. with olay body, i feel fearless in my skin. if you've traveled by plane lately, you know firsthand how brutal plying has become. cancellations and delays galore, fueled by overscheduling of flights and a lack of staff and an influx of travelers returning to the skies. now the department of transportation is telling airlines they have to improve their customer service. tom costello is here. i was just thinking i've flown four flights in the last two weeks, three have been late. i just spent four hours, i think, in the denver airport. so the transportation department is saying, hold on, we're going to try to fix this. what are they telling you? >> bottom line, you're obviously not alone. 23% of flights in the first six

months of the years were delayed, average of 52 minutes or so. 3.2% of flights cancelled in the first six months of the year. the secretary, pete buttigieg tells he he has now told the airlines they need to fix their approach to customer service, stop overpromising flights when you don't have the pilots to fly them, start delivering on your schedules, create clarity in your schedules and your rules and policies so that the passengers know what to expect. and if you don't do this, he says, then we'll do it for you. take a listen to what he told me. you're calling on the airlines to either voluntarily meet these requirement and regulations or you're going to do it for them? >> that's right. i'm giving them an opportunity to raise the bar. >> specifically the d.o.t. wants to essentially require airlines to provide refunds to people if your flight is delayed for than

three hours domestically, six hour international. if your flight changes dramatically and they tell you you'll have to go to airport a instead of b, you should get meals and hotel vouchers. essentially they're telling the airlines either you come up with a plan that works for your customers or we'll do it for you. >> okay, i'm flying tomorrow. let's see how it goes. >> well, it's not going to happen that fast but good luck. >> i actually knew that was the case but thank you so much. it's always great to you have on the show. the impact of inflation has just hit a whole new category, beyond higher prices at the grocery store, higher prices for housing and even budget restaurants. here's a somewhat insane number. it's the cost of raising a kid. it's now $300,000. that's new reporting in "the

wall street journal," happening as inflation is at a nearly four-decade high. let's break down the numbers. the brookings institution estimates a married, middle-income couple with two kids would spend an average of $1,000 a year to raise their children born in 2015 through age 17. that multi-year total up $26,000 from just two years ago. so i hope your boss has given you a raise, moms and dads out there. that's going to do it for us this hour. join us every weekday at 1 p.m. katy tur, who is a mom, reports next. next ake hours astepro starts working in 30 minutes. so you can... astepro and go. covid-19 moves fast, and now you can too by asking your healthcare provider if an oral treatment is right for you.

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good to be with you. i'm katy tur. everyone wants to be the exception and not the rule. as you've no doubt heard over and over, the rule is that the party that holds the white house usually loses seats in the mid terms. now keep in mind averages are tricky, but if we're talking numbers, history tells us on average that means 26 seats in the house and four seats in the senate. right now congress looks like this: in the house democrats have a margin of nine seats. in the senate it's 50/50 but controlled by dems with vice president kamala harris' tie breaking