good day, everyone. this is "andrea mitchell reports" in washington. as overnight results from this year's final elections before the midterms show the republican red wave may turn into a trickle. giving democrats new hope for november. the biggest signal a special lest win for democrat pat ryan in a bellwether swing district in new york. he campaigned on abortion

rights. on his republican opponent focused on inflation and crime. in florida former republican governor turned democratic congressman charlie crist will challenge republican governor and potential presidential candidate ron desantis for the governor's mansion. chris will be here to talk about his uphill battle. the senate candidate in florida is congresswoman and former orlando police chief val demings winning the nomination to challenge marco rubio. and in new york's bitter feud between two powerful democrats for one manhattan seat because of redistricting, jerry nadler defeated caroline maloney. also on the political front, president biden is back from vacation today and will be announcing an extension on student loan forgiveness, a decision unlikely to please partisans on both sides. and a somber independence day in ukraine as the country also marks six months today since russia invaded with boris

johnson showing up in kyiv and president so lent skit addressing the u.n. $3 billion in weapons and advanced equipment. joining us here today two form er defense secretaries leon panetta and chuck hagel. but first steve kornacki, chief white house correspondent kristen welker, and david jolly from florida. so steve, i don't think you got a break. so you are wonderman. first to you. the democrat winning in the bellwether swing district in new york after running on abortion. let's talk about the new congress member. >> pat ryan, new york's 19th congressional district, a special election here. i think this is an important result because we have been asking a question really since that overturning roe v. wade

about whether the political climate has changed nationally in a way that's favorable toward democrats. we had seen the generic ballot tighten. basically moving to a draw. myrtle beach, nebraska, republicans had won them, but democrat hs done better relative to joe biden in 2020. maybe there was new energy among voters helping them get more voters to the polls. might help their position to the midterms. the keyword belle wetter. it was a trump district in 2016. last night the democrats win it. this is the kind of district, republicans have been talking all year about a red wave form ing. joe biden's popularity being very low, concerns about the economy being very high. that kind of at atmosphere, a district like this, a district this close, this competitive,

it's kind of low hanging fruit. or should be low-hanging fruit for republicans for the opposition party. so the democrats kind of defy that and win it here. if you really dig inside the numbers, the reason why democrats were able to win, two blue counties in this district. it's columbia county. two counties that he won look at it this way in 2020 those two counties made up 36% of all votes that were cast in this district. two democratic counties. last night those same two counties made up 42% of all the votes that were cast in new york. so what that means is the two key core democratic areas relative to the rest of the district disproportionately high turnout. i think it's the strongest piece of evidence we have seen since that roe v. wade overturning, there's a surge of energy translating into participation among democratic voters.

just as noably, you see a lot of red areas in the district. a lot of republican counties where he did just as well as donald trump did. what he didn't get was a comparable level of turnout. so more turnout on the democratic side here. and as we say, this is not just a one off. we have seen a draw line right here. this is when the stream court ruling came down. there have been four special elections since the supreme court ruling. and you see them here. it's a district in nebraska that trump won by 15. the republicans won it, but only by 5. minnesota trump won the district by 10. republicans win, but only by 4. democrats outright win in new york, 19 yesterday. by the way there was a special election in the 23rd district of new york yesterday. thot a lot of money was spent. the district is being blown up by redistricting. nonetheless, trump won the district by 11 points in 2020. the republicans won that race last night. but again, only by 6.

so we have seen movement in all 4 of the special elections. so i think while new york 19 you could point to any number of individual characteristics, i think it's simply the most emphatic of a series of data points since the supreme court ruling that point towards a change in the political climate. >> and just a quick follow-up, because he has to run again in november. what is the new district he runs in? >> it's interesting because let's see if we can call that up on the screen. this is going to be too much to get the district map up on the screen, but pat ryan is going to run in a different district. he has a slight favorite on paper in that district.

interestingly, mark is also going to be running in a different district this november. he will have a shot as well. so. >> it's really something else. that new york redistricting map. thanks so much, steve kornacki. i do hope you get some rest today. and kristen welker, also a late night for all of you. so the red wave, could it be weaker? how are people feeling in the white house about their chances now? at least even in the house. >> i think white house officials and democrats broadly speaking are feeling more optimistic about their chances in the fall in the wake of that special election. and for all of the reasons that steve just laid out, the fact that democrats seem to be energized and really enthusiastic about going to the polls to vote on this issue of abortion, it's not just new york

19. it was also the kansas race in which voters turned out in numbers not seen since the last presidential election to vote on a single issue in that case. and so democrats really see their chances changing around this issue. the question becomes can they continue to capitalize on that heading into the fall. now what we're seeing, which i think is notable, you are seeing democrats like pat ryan, also in florida, she came up short, but you're seeing them broaden their message to really try to make the case that this is about women's rights and also freedom. that's an attempt to reach out to republican voters as they head to the fall as well. there's some question marks. and again, that wasn't enough to get him over the finish line. i have been talking to republican who is say, look, they are not sure that the inflation message carries the

same heft that it might have just a few months ago. in part because you see those numbers starting to tick down. the big unknown over all of this is president biden, his approval ratings continue to be in the 40s. he's going to be out on the campaign trail talking about what he sees as his legislative achievements. but where and how he campaigns res to be seen. it's a big question mark looming over all of this. >> the only two times in history since the great depression that the party in power managed to overcome the trend against losing in the midterms in the first of a president was with bill clinton in '98 and george w. bush in 2004. in one case, bill clinton had the republicans at a disadvantage because there was a backlash against impeachment and the other case it was after 9/11

where there was a lot of fur investigator around the president and the white house. it's going to be difficult to hold the house. even if they don't lose by as much of a margin. >> reporter: that's such an important reality check. part of that has to do with redistricting. with steve just moments ago, not just in new york, but in other states around the country. so i do think democrats think it's going to be tough to hold on to the house, but can they cut down on their losses. that's, i think, what the strategy is. now they'd like to hold on to the house. you have some democrats saying they still think it's a possibility in holding out hope for that. but i do think there's realistically speaking more expectation than democrats might be able to hold on to the senate. and it's worth noting that senate majority leader mitch mcconnell made the point that essentially it's hard to win some of these races if you don't have strong candidates. a nod to the fact that he

clearly thinks some of the candidates in the races to win back the senate are not as strong as he thinks they could be. >> because of the kind of candidates that donald trump endorsed. much higher poll ratings than what we're seeing with joe biden. i want to ask you about the florida race and what's ahead. you ran against charlie crist and have experience running against ron desantis. so you know what these candidates are like. >> that's right. i maybe the only person in the country that has run against ron desantis and charlie crist. but i think your reference to the national environment in '98 and '02 is important. what democrats are trying to

figure out is are we in a moment of such a cultural inflection point coming out of the dobbs decision and the injection that donald trump and the january 6th story that captivates the american conversation, are we in such a national environment that democrats could actually defy history. that's certainly what florida democrats are hoping for this morning. i think they wake up knowing what they knew yesterday. they have two strong candidates in crist and val demings statewide, but they start the general election cycle a few points behind. simply based on the state of florida. you have two strong candidates, high name i.d., national profiles that if they can get some national trends going the way of democrats in november, they could give ron desantis and marco rubio a run for their money. >> we should also point out that you had that awful feud in manhattan so you have jerry

nadler winning and redistricting in both states had a big impact. thanks to all of of you. it was a big election night. thanks. our big thanks to steve kornacki. and joining us now is nominee for florida governor congressman charlie crist. congratulations. >> thanks, it's great to be with you. >> thank you for joining us. i know you have gotten very little sleep. >> it's okay. >> you have a tough race ahead of you. >> that's true. i think it's very winnable. >> he's popular, florida has a registration edge for republicans. he has $140 million to spend. what's your strategy? >> the strategy is to be myself. you always need to be genuine in who you are. you're right. he has like a 50% approval rating. when i served as governor even in the great recession, my

approval rating was 72%. i'll take those 22 points over him. and so i think we have a great shot. i really doo. resources are an issue. they always are in any political campaign. but i'm confident that people will go to charliecrist.com and give us a helping hand. we'll try to send them one of our new posters. i really think our chances are good. women are energized. fair minded men are jrge newsed. the governor signed the bill that even includes the fact that there's no exception for rape or incest. that's barbaric. women deserve better respect than that. that's not the right thing to do. our african-american citizens he took two lines away.

and lgbtq, he attacks those kids in school and walt duz knee world had the gupgs to exercise their right to free speech and the governor goes after disney world. it's unbelievable. it's a battle of hate versus nice and love. and people need that now. people are tired of politics of sniping at each other. the back biting and all the bickering that goes on. and the governor is great at it. he likes to bicker and he's a bully. and florida is tired of it. i'm convinced of that. and so i think that they are going to want a governor that has a heart, that has compassion, a governor will expand medicaid, so almost a million floridians will get their health care. and the federal government pays for most of it. i don't know why he would not take that. it's the right thing to do. it's the compassionate thing to do.

wear these yellow wristbands that talk about practicing the golden rule every day. and i don't know if the governor ever learned the golden rule, but if he did, he's clearly forgotten it. we deserve better. my fellow floridians deserve better, and that's what this campaign is all about. bringing the sunshine back to the sunshine state and doing what's right for women, what's right for minorities, what's right for lgbtq. we're all children of god. we should treat each other that way. >> what about the gun issue? in florida the horrific shooting in parkland was. >> that's a huge issue in the sunshine state. what happened in parkland was horrific. same thing at the pulse nightclub in orlando. governor delaware san vetoed some money passed almost unanimously in the house and senate to give comfort and aid and assistance to the family members of those 49 angels that lost their lives. how do you do that?

i don't understand that level of hate, that level of lack of compassion a lack of empathy a lack of kindness. florida deserves better. and we want to return florida to that state of betterment, of goodness, of decency, of kindness. these are corny words to some, but they are not to me. and they are not to most of my fellow floridians. i know they want that. we had a wonderful victory last night. i gave great credit to nikki for running a great campaign. but now it's time for the main event. we have 11 weeks to go. as i said, if people want to help charliecrist.com. we really appreciate you having us on today. it's an honor to be on with you. you're a real pro. >> thank you for coming on. we did invite ron desantis, but he declined today's invitation. what about nicki freed as a

rub running mate? >> she's a very capable public servant. has done a great job as our ing ature commissioner, so we'll see what happens. but in the meantime, have a florida man instead of desantis. thank you for having me. >> certainly getting off to a fast start. thank you very much. good luck out there. and defiant stand, ukrainians marking 31 years of independence and 6 months of war. the new military package with a $3 billion price tag. sglncht former defense secretaries join me next. that plus their new effort to help veterans. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." you're watching "andrel reports. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ they said it couldn't be done. because the big drug companies

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today marks six months since rusia invaded ukraine. it's also ukraine's independence day. no marches or parades are plan

ed because of security issues. u.s. officials are warning americans still in ukraine to leave the country fearing russia is about to intensify its attacks. ukraine's president issuing a warning today while addressing the u.n. security council. and more help it on the way from the u.s. with president biden just announcing he's sending $3 billion worth of weapons and equipment to ukraine. the largest package yet. joining me now is leon panetta, and chuck hagel, former defense secretary and senator from nebraska ask the chair of the council on criminal justice veterans justice commission. welcome both. thank you very much. we're going to talk about your commission and your new study, really important subject, in just a moment. i want to start with ukraine on this six-month anniversary. it's independence day. there are fears of retaliation for the apparent bombing that killed vladimir putin's closest political allies.

as well as the anniversary and the fears of something terrible happening at the nuclear plant. where do you -- how do you assess how ukraine is doing and whether they can withstand the continuous onslaught here and what appears to be a frozen conflict? >> i don't think there's any question that ukrainians have a lot to celebrate on independence day. they remain an independent democracy. they basically were able to stop a russian invasion of their country. they survived a brutal siege, a war in which russia was attacking innocent men, women, and children, but they survived it. and now they are holding their

on on a war of attrition, which is going on now. so i think most importantly, they are an independent democracy free of russian domination. that's a lot to celebrate. >> as well as they are doing, it doesn't seem to be any stage yet where either side is willing to negotiate. the ukrainians certainly not as long as russia is on the attack. russia doesn't seem at all serious about negotiating. how do we get to a stage where there will be some kind of settlement at the bargaining table? >> well, first of all, i agree with what leon said and his analysis. as to your question, i think it's a matter of not just sustaining what the brave ukrainians have done and the support they have been given from the united states and western allies, but looking

ahead as to what happens next. they need more maneuverability, more capability. and the united states and nato allies are providing that. the new weapons shipments announced here this week by the biden administration reflect that. but it's more than that. it's planning. it's intelligence. it's getting underneath. for example, what happened in crimea here a few days ago and before that. you're seeing the creative ukrainian approach to this as a great nation defending its country. defending its future. defending its past. and you can't invent that. you can't just find that off the shef somewhere with weaponry. all that has to blend together. and i think what we're seeing, at least after the first six months, that that is happening. i think we always have to ask

the question what happens next. i don't know what happens next. how long this goes, when it ends, how it ends, where it ends, but i do know this. this is probably a long-term effort. and as much flexibility as the ukrainians can build into their approach and our assistance and continued assistance like we have been assisting, i think that's the key to this. but it's pretty remarkable what ukrainians have achieved in the last six months. >> turning to syria briefly, the u.s. conducted airstrikes in syria against iran-backed groups just as the u.s. is now deliberating on whether to respond, how to respond to the iranian offer on the iranian nuclear jcpoa. providing that they seem to be on separate tracks.

the u.s. seems willing to go after iran militarily when it deem it is necessary despite hopes to try to get back into the nuclear deal. is it possible to keep these things apart? >> i have to tell you that and chuck knows this well, the department of defense, when our troops are attacked, we have to respond. on august 15th, iranian drones attacked our forces in syria. fortunately, no one was hurt but because of that attack, i think president biden made the right decision to basically go at those that were responsible. and those responsible are militias that are supported by the iranian revolutionary guard. so i think this was the right response at the right time. >> i also want to talk about your very important work. this veterans issue, a

preliminary report released found a third of veterans say they have been arrested at least once. you're going to chair this new commission. why are veterans being arrested and incarcerated at a higher rate than nonmilitary people in the population? >> that question is a question that we are going to try to find out. this 15-member commission represented by all facets of this, the judiciary, the veterans administration, we have two former service members who have been incarcerated. find out why this is happening. we have 180,000 veterans in prison today in jails over the country. this just didn't start. we can go back years and years. go back to the time i was of in vietnam with my brother in 1968. what saw and he saw after that,

how veterans tried to adjust. they had a lot of problems. the last 20 years where america has had its longest wars, 20-year wars, afghanistan and iraq, we have seen these young men and women redeploy, redeploy. that takes a toll on anybody. i don't care how strong you are. it takes a toll. and so what we want to do in this commission is get into this. let's see how we can help the veteran as that veteran is transitioning out of dod, help through the courts, police departments, the va, dod, everybody who has a hand in this. we're going to be making recommendations over the next two years to all these bodys based on intense real research. we can't have this. it's a disgray. when you have men and women in

uniform and come back, somehow they slip between the cracks. we don't have all the answer. america deserves those answers as well. one last point here as well. as leon knows so well, we have a real recruitment and retention problem in the armed forces today. the army's recruitment issues are big. as to how they see life in the military and how you transition out. so it's all of that together is what we're going to be looking at. and i very much appreciate leon's involvement and all the people on the commission because they are all first rate and dedicated to this. >> it's so important. your service, your brother tom's in vietnam, your service, your son's service, the strains on

these veterans coming back, how are we failing them in terms of adjustment in health in cases of drug abuse, trauma, ptsd, housing assistance, education, it's all of that. >> it is all that. >> there's a code that i think both chuck and i know from the department of defense, which is you never leave anybody behind in the military. never leave anyone behind. and the fact that we have this huge number, 180,000 that are presently in federal and state prisons tells us that we are leaving them behind. because of ptsd, traumatic brain injury, men problems, substance abuse problems, all the things

that are impacting and creating this horrible problem that the commission is going to look at, this is an area where frankly the country needs to respond because these are patriots. they tried to fight for our country. and now they are in deep trouble. and we have to help them. >> leon panetta, chuck hagel, thank you for what you're doing. thank you for being with us today. >> thank you. and relief or grief? opposition from both sides to the plan the president set to announce shortly for giving some student loans. who qualifies plus the impact on our economy and the political fallout coming. we'll talk about that on "andrea mitchell reports." pool floaties are like whooping cough. amusement parks are like whooping cough. even ice cream is like whooping cough, it's not just for kids.

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for decades, i've worked at the intersection of domestic violence and homelessness. so when prop 27 promised solutions to homelessness, i took a good, hard look. it's not a solution. 90% of the money goes to the out-of-state corporations who wrote it. very little is left for the homeless. don't let corporations exploit homelessness to pad their profits. vote no on 27.

president biden leading into a tricky political issue that some warn could backfire. the hot issue of canceling student loans the white house plans to cancel $10,000 of

student debt for borrowers and $20,000 for pell grant recipients. biden's only extending the moratorium on payments up to $10,000 for people earning less than $125,000. the criticism from republicans that it's too much, too generous. and many democrats say it did you want go far enough. joining us now is capitol hill correspondent ali vitali. her new book is "electable." it came out only yesterday. i'm excited to see you here today. the president really delayed this decision. there's a lot of internal debate. do more, do less, do nothing. he's opening it up. he's come back from vacation holiday. >> a lot of internal debate all the the white house and a lot of internal debate among democrats among what this should look like.

democrats likes bernie sanders and elizabeth warren were campaigning on a much bigger number than the ones biden settled on here. the fact that he's canceling for the majority of people pell grant resip yepts up to $20,000 of student loan debt. progress i-s that i talked to say they are happy to see action on this. they wanted it to be more. people like chuck schumer and elizabeth warren, you can see it in a statement put out today. they say they are going to continue pushing on this even as republicans are saying, they think this is a bad idea. >> republicans are say it's inflationary. >> it's also coming at an interesting political moment. when this conversation first started, several months ago the lapd skap was very different for democrats. now you lack at the issues galvanizing voters. it's things like reproductive access, not things like this on student loan debt. so republicans that i have talked to see an opportunity here to turn the table back to democrats are spending. they are doing so in an

inflationary period. they see this sass something that feeds into the larger argument that the midterms are going to be about the economy. this could be a distraction. but at the end of the day, democrats, this is something that's galvanized them for years. finally seeing action on it. it's huge. >> there's always the issue of the young voters. this could be something as well as the abortion issue, the larger freedom and liberty issue. it could energize young voters and they need those young voters who are are more likely to be democratic. >> that's absolutely true. you see a falloff in voters. it's not your general election year. you want to bring as many people to the table as possible. every operative i talked to says it's about turnout because it always is. but at the same time, if this is something that young voters as they are seeing it hit their wallet cans take to the ballot

box, democrats are happy to have that argument. >> thank you so much. the book is "electable". and ignored opportunities, a new timeline detailing the many chances donald trump had to hand over all top secret documents he took home to marla dpo. this is "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. po this is "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc.

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former president trump is facing a a friday deadline put in place by a federal judge. the court is asking trump's lawyers to clarify why they are requesting a special master to review the top secret documents seized from it his florida home. this comes as we're getting a much clearer picture of all the warnings and requests made by the national archives and the fbi to the trump team before the august 8th search at mar-a-lago. joining me now is justice correspondent ken dilanian. so what are we learning about

all the time for the government trying to get these documents back that belong to the government, whether or not they were classified, but they were urgently needed to get them in a safe place. and all the ways that this was delayed to answer those who say, well, he was cooperating, so why did they have to go in and search the place? >> the more we learn about the timeline here, the more we learn that, a, donald trump was not cooperating. there were talks going as far back as 2021 they were demanding some of these documents that they knew were missing. and then, two, that the government really bent over backwards and gave trump what my sources are saying what more than what wuf been afforded to get these things back. we're learning even after in january, the justice department learned there were highly classified documents in the first batch that the archives turned over. there was a four-month delay between when they got access to the documents because trump was claiming executive privilege and

they had to go through this whole exercise where they said, no, president biden has the privilege. you don't. we're giving this to the fbi. so that caused an incredible. >> you have a copy saying there's no privilege here. >> that's right. and that letter explained that they found tssci and special access documents, which as you know are the most classified documents in the government. >> and to me, those documents you have to go into a secure location. you have to be in the situation room. when cabinet members at the very highest levels are appointed, they build those rooms in their homes and when presidents travel, they create them at embassies. they create them on the road. >> even people with the highest clearances have to be read into these programs. sometimes they have to be polygraphed because these kinds of things if disclosed could get people killed. >> so do we know anything more

about what the trump people in these legal requests are making to the federal judge? >> the legal experts have said this was the judge's way of instructing the trump people that their lawsuit isn't well founded. first of all, she's asking why aren't you going to the magistrate who is dealing with this case. and have you even served the justice department, physically served them lawsuits. there's questions about whether this is going to succeed. she's giving them until friday to file more documents. >> that was one of my questions. why didn't they go back to the original judge. ken dilanian, you have all the answers. >> thank you. good to be with you. behind lines, we hear from soldiers once held prisoner by russia and from families still awaiting word about their loved ones. this is "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. s "andremia tl reports" on msnbc. subway series menu. twelve irresistible new subs. the most epic sandwich roster ever created. ♪♪

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fine. he didn't say a word to me about what happened on the island. >> reporter: the day russia invaded, her son was serving on snake island where the war's first iconic battle played out. >> tell me about your son. >> translator: he really liked the island, nature, the sea. >> reporter: this woman's son was a cook in ukraine's military, also at snake island. these two mothers now bound together by anguish. they learned their sons had been captured by spotting them on russian tv being bussed to occupied crimea. >> so this is your son's room and you've kept it exactly like it was for him for when he comes back. >> translator: we know nothing, nothing at all. where are they, in what conditions, if they're healthy, if they're eating anything. >> reporter: as ukraine marks six months of war on wednesday, there are countless families waiting and hoping. >> translator: we are talking

about several thousand ukrainian prisoners of war. >> reporter: ukraine's military says nearly 600 have been released in exchanges with russia. many later described torture, death threats and constant mental abuse. russia says it treats pows humanely. in april, this gentleman was part of ukraine's last stand in mariupol. he saw a russian tank aiming at him and then a flash. >> translator: the building started collapsing. i fell from the third to the first floor and i was covered with stones. >> reporter: he was pulled out of the rubble with a broken pelvis, jaw and nose. he says the only way doctors could save him was to turn him over to russia. he says he was given no medical care, not even painkillers and that guards would daunt him by running daggers along his throat. >> translator: sometimes the nurses would pass by the room, leave the food and say, eat it

yourself, ukrainian. it was clear that i could not even move, let alone eat. they could come two hours later, take the food and ask, are you full. >> reporter: freed after 17 days, he hopes to return to the front lines. when the phone rings in the village, ana prays it's her son. >> can you read to me what his last message was? >> translator: everything is fine. do not worry. everything is fine. >> if your son could see this conversation right now, what would you like to tell him? >> translator: that we are waiting for him, we love him. >> reporter: and, andrea, as we headed into this independence day, the mood here in kyiv was one of anxiety, as president zelenskyy was warning russia might use the occasion to launch vicious attacks. but today the predominant mood on the streets is one of pride. you have ukrainians who have come out to gawk at these burnt-out russian tanks, many

wearing traditional clothing. some have draped themselves in the ukrainian flag as they make the point that russia thought it was going to sweep into this country and take it over in a matter of days, and here six months later, the country is still standing strong. andrea? >> reporter: josh lederman, it really is extraordinary. six months already. the russians had said they were going to accomplish this, or at least they expected, we understand, that they would accomplish this in five days. look at ukraine standing strong. thank you for being there. please be safe. i know they're bracing for further retaliation this week. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." follow the show on facebook and twitter. thanks for being with us. hope you'll be with us tomorrow. . they're the top two causes of ckd. ckd usually starts with no symptoms.

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hey, everybody. good afternoon. i'm yasmin vossoughian in for chris jansing here at msnbc headquarters in new york city. right now we're just about 75 days away from the midterm elections, and one special house race may signal a major tide shift for november. in new york, democrat pat ryan defeated republican marc molinaro in a race experts are saying could be a