violence ishyperbole, the survil of our planet is on the ballot. your right to vote is on the ballot. even the democracy. are you ready to fight for these things now? then you need to do one thing, vote, vote! >> vote, vote, vote, vote, vote! >> you got it. >> president biden firing up a crowd in maryland as he returns to the campaign trail for his first rally ahead of the midterm elections. but tgs what he told donors earlier in the day that really got republicans riled up. we'll talk you through his remarks. plus, the latest on the justice department investigation into donald trump. any moment now, we expect to see a redacted copy of the affidavit used to justify the fbi's search of mar-a-lago two and a half

weeks ago. what we could learn when the document comes out. good morning. welcome to "morning joe." it is friday, august 26th. i'm willie geist. with us this morning, msnbc contributor mike barnicle. former united states senator and msnbc political analyst, claire mccaskill. and white house editor for "politico," sam stein. we wake up to some news this morning. a redacted copy of the affidavit used to justify the search warrant executed at donald trump's mar-a-lago estate will be made available to the public by at least noon today, possibly this morning. federal magistrate judge rhinehart yesterday ordered it to be unsealed after the justice department submitted the redacted version for him to review. in the order, he outlined which sections of the affidavit the government redacted before public release, saying, i find the government has met its burden of finding a compelling reason, a good cause, to seal portions of the affidavit. because disclosure would reveal

the identity of witnesses, law enforcement, uncharged parties, the investigator's strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods and grand jury information protected by federal procedure. the fbi removed 11 sets of classified documents, including some labeled secret and top secret from trump's south florida home on august 8th. joining us, reporter for the "washington post," jckie alemany and chuck rosenberg. chuck, i'll start with you. what is reasonable for us to expect when this document in a matter of hours is made public? will we learn much about the investigation, or will it be, as some have said, just pages of redacted black lines? >> maybe a little of both, willie. think of the affidavit in two buckets. i don't want to oversimplify it, just simplify it. bucket one is the procedural history. what led us to this point? it may include information about

the back and forth between the national archives and the former president and his team to reclaim documents that belong to the government and not mr. trump personally. that's the procedural stuff, bucket one. bucket two, why was there probable cause? what crimes the government believed were committed and why they believed they'd find evidence of the crimes at mar-a-lago. i think we're going to see a good bit from bucket one, the procedural stuff. we've seen reporting on that, willie. it may confirm some of the reporting. it may add a few details to the reporting. i don't think we're going to see anything -- or i should say very little, if anything, from bucket two. sort of the substantive, factual, underpinnings of the probable cause determination. for the reasons the judge said, you have witnesses out there. you have uncharged parties out there. you have the scope and the direction of the investigation,

which needs to remain sealed while the investigation is ongoing. a good bit from bucket one. not much, if at all, from bucket two. >> judge rhinehart has been walking this line the last couple week, acknowledging the interest in making some of this public, given the extraordinary nature of the case, just showing the justification for the search warrant that was granted to mar-a-lago. then the other side saying, yes, we understand that there is an ongoing investigation and there are people whose names, sources and methods, strategies that should not be made public and typically wouldn't be made public here. what do you expect to see today? you've been reporting on this so closely. >> yeah. we need to note in the unredacted form, this would provide the most comprehensive rational for why the government had wanted to search trump's property. but as for reasons that were laid out in front of the court

last week, there was a -- there has been a feeling amongst justice department official that is this would highly jeopardize the current investigation. i think we can expect to see something heavily redacted but might shed new light on the timeline, as chuck pointed out, but is unlikely to reveal sources and methods and what they ultimately believed might have been on the premise. as we previously reported, though, we know they were, in some part, looking for information related to sources and methods and potentially items related to the u.s. nuclear program. we also know the information that they ultimately took is some of the most sensitive information in the u.s. government and is highly

sensitive. could be a serious breach to national security. it is unlikely what we're going to see released today will confirm some of that. >> claire, if you read the judge's order, he accepts the justice department's redactions. obviously, they wouldn't leave anything in there they thought would jeopardize witnesses or jeopardize their investigation. the judge calling this the least onerous alternative to unsealing the entire affidavit. >> willie, the timeline you put up is a clear road map of facts for a jury. on the presidential records act. the fact this president saw the records as his, like a little baby, "they're mine, you can't have them." he fought with the archivists for a full year over giving back these top secret, classified documents. what has to happen now -- and

this is what i want to ask chuck. we can clearly see what has happened. give us a timeline. the clock is ticking, chuck. this has taken an awfully long time. even from the moment the archivists realized classified documents had been part of the boxes he grudgingly sent back, it's been months and months before we've gotten to this point. there is a big election in a couple of years, and i don't understand why there doesn't seem to be more of a sense of urgency around the timing of this investigation. help us out there. >> good questions, claire. so i think the department of justice gave a lot of -- was very patient and gave mr. trump and his lawyers sort of every opportunity to do the right thing, sort of like lucy and charlie brown and the football, right? lucy never holds it for charlie brown to kick it through the uprights, and trump and his team

never quite do the right thing. so after months and months and months, to your point, claire, of trying to get the stuff back by asking, and that didn't work, and then through a grand jury subpoena, and that apparently didn't work, they finally executed the search warrant. i think that explains a good bit of the delay. i don't blame the department of justice for trying to do it more gently. i certainly don't blame them for ultimately getting a search warrant and executing it on the home. the stuff, as jackie explained, that was in the house was among the most damaging, potentially, if released un-properly, material that we have in our holdings. so what happens next? also a hard question to answer. i know you were a state prosecutor. i was a federal prosecutor. you're used to things moving more quickly than i am. i don't see this delay as undue or unnecessary, and the statute of limitations gives the

department of justice plenty of time. that said, i hope they move. we know they have an ongoing investigation. we won't learn all the details of that when the affidavit is released in redacted form, but we'll learn a little bit more. remember, the justice department has to do a thorough investigation, because when and if they bring charges, they really only have one shot at it, claire, as i know you know. they have to get this thing right. >> jackie, this seems to have been going on for a long time. it is going to be released this morning. it'll be a version of clue, i imagine, with all the redactions in it. but what, specifically, would you be looking for, having covered this for so long? what would you be looking for when you read the final report that's released in terms of guidance, in terms of direction, from what you already know and have already reported?

>> that is a really good question, mike, and this has been going on longer than most of us realize. we keep uncovering new information that extends the timeline further. lawyers for the former president knew two weeks before he left office that there were two dozen boxes in the residence that needed to be sent to the archives, that the archives then in may of 2021 were -- had started to try to track down. so this is something that has been on the radar for trump's advisers since, again, he transitioned out of the white house. but i think what i'll be looking for today, and what we may or may not receive from the redacted affidavit is just any more on the efforts that the fbi took to get these documents back. any indication of further communications with evan corcoran or members of the

former president's legal team. that helps bolster their obstruction case and argument, which is why -- one of the reasons why they executed the search warrant to begin with. also, anything i think shows when they might have had any interviews or conversations that prompted the execution of this search warrant. we had actually reported that the fbi was still conducting interviews and had some lined up in these recent coming weeks that they ended up cancelling because they needed to get in there and urgently seize these boxes from mar-a-lago. as we know it so far, they have not rescheduled the interviews they previously had. i'll be following all the bread crumbs. unfortunately, i think the thing we all want to see we are not going to see, which is what exactly they took. maybe if there's any more

information that is given on what they could have been looking for, like vague, descri information, i'll also be looking closely for that. >> we will be hunting through the black lines when the document comes out. could be during our show this morning. the judge said the affidavit must be unsealed by noon today. it could be at any hour. "the washington post"'s jackie alemany. former federal attorney chuck rosenberg, thank you, both. president biden stepped back on the campaign trail yesterday with a fundraiser and rally in the d.c. suburbs of maryland. he railed against maga republicans at both events, telling donors, quote, what we're seeing now is the beginning or the death knell of an extreme maga philosophy. it's not just trump, it is like semi-fascism, said the president. the rnc said, despicable. biden forced americans out of their jobs, transferred money

from working families to harvard lawyers, and sent our country into a recession while families can't afford gas and groceries. democrats don't care about suffering americans. they never did. end quote from the rnc. here is what the president said later at a rally for maryland democrats in rockville. >> the alternative to the democrats are the maga republicans. the maga republicans have awakened the powerful force in america, the women of this nation. maga republicans don't have a clue about the power of women. let me tell you something, they are about to find out. the maga republicans don't just threaten our economic rights and security. they are a threat to our very democracy. they refuse to accept the will of the people. they embrace, embrace political violence. they don't believe in democracy. this is why, in this moment,

those of you who love this country, democrats, independents, mainstream republicans, we must be stronger, more determined and more committed to saving america than the maga republicans are destroying america. >> president biden campaigning in maryland yesterday. let's bring in associate professor of political science at fordham university, christina greer. great to see you. democrats, some wanted him to campaign with them. he was campaigning with wes moore in maryland, one of the rising stars of the party. others said, "no, thanks. we appreciate the offer, but don't campaign in our state right now. it might hurt you." let's talk about that message, a foundational argument about the stakes this fall, that democracy is on the ballot. >> absolutely, willie. i mean, the stakes are high. democracy absolutely is on the ballot. i think joe biden and the rest of the democrats need to do a combination of touting the

accomplishments of the biden administration, of which there are many, while also explaining and contextualizing the danger that we face if democrats don't maintain control in november and also looking forward to november of 2024. so what joe biden is laying out is absolutely correct. i think he needs to weave in not just a woman's right to choose and not just the existential threat of democracy, violence, and climate change, but the wins he's had over these past few months. making sure that, you know, pocketbook issues that voter go to the polls to think about are also equally contextualized and explained on the local, federal, and state level. >> sam stein, how much are we going to see of president biden in the lead up to these midterm elections? as i said, he's gone into some states where democratic candidates said their schedules were full and they couldn't find time to have him join them on the campaign trail because, in some ways, he might hurt them. is he going to be out there on the trail a bunch this summer

and fall? >> he'll be out there more than he has been. we've been alerted to future travel in and around the area. also, to sell some of the recent legislative accomplishments, whether it's the chips bill or this ira, the inflation reduction act. you know, one of the things to be blunt about is that he has had covid. you know, there was a lot of concern about him getting out there and getting sick. he had covid. he had a rebound case, so there is a bit of a reprieve right now. that he can go out there without too much fear of reinfection. that actually does matter materially for him. also, you know, they're on the upswing. there's wind at their backs, to borrow a metaphoric cliche. there is a sense in the white house that this is the time to keep pushing. you know, they feel very buoyed by all of the recent good news, legislative momentum, the special election results in new

york, so they want to hit and want to hit hard. the question is, you know, are there things, factors that can change the dynamics between now and november? is there another inflation report that comes out? will gas prices come back after falling 70 straight days? those are the atmospheric factors. >> campaigned in good weather and bad weather. let me ask you, in terms of the importance of president biden appearing back out on the stump, his approval ratings have jumped from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, and he has a series of deliverables that he can talk about. drug prices coming down, the cost of insulin coming under control, gas prices coming down. there is some construction work going on around the country. you can see it, it is visible to a lot of motorists and pedestrians. you can see work being done with federal money. how important is it to slam

those items home? the fact that we passed this, we passed that, as well as talk about the undercurrent of the dangers to democracy presented by, as the president used the phrase continually, maga republicans? >> yeah, i mean, i think it is important for him to get out there, mike, but let's take a little of a reality check. in battleground states, candidates don't want national people in. they are really focusing on the people of that state, trying to keep the issues local, whether it is gas prices or what is being built as a result of build back better and all of the money put into infrastructure. but, in fairness, i think we always talk about joe biden's unpopularity and how he continental get out there. we have to talk about trump.

are these candidates going to want trump out there? trump is not popular with many of the voters that are in flux right now. the ones who maybe voted for trump and then came back and voted for biden. those are the voters that are the sweet spot for the contested senate races around the country, trying to get those obama, trump, biden voters back in the fold on the d side. trump is just as big a problem for the republican candidates as biden might be for the democratic candidates. >> that's a great point. we saw that in the special election in new york 19 this week, where the republican candidate did not want to talk about donald trump. just made it about the economy. he still lost by a few points up there. president biden's move this week to relieve student loan debt is being met with some criticism now from even democratic lawmakers. the majority have come out in support of the move, of course, but a handful of democrats, particularly in tight midterm races, took a different

position. ohio senate nominee tim ryan says, quote, it sends the wrong message to the millions of ohioans without a degree working just as hard to make end's meet. cortez masto of nevada disa grew grewdisagrees with the move, saying it doesn't address what makes college unaffordable. jared golden of maine says the decision is out of touch with what the majority of people want from the white house. those are outliers, professor greer, in the democratic party, but it's certainly among some independents and most republicans, that is the case, that people who didn't go to college are now footing the bill for people who did. president biden thinks it is good, transformational for their lives, and, politically, perhaps helps bring out younger voters. it's helped get them out from under the debt. >> two thing. senator mccaskill laid it out, all policies go in different

way s. the outliers understand what is going on in their state, and that's why they're showing their disdain. democrats aren't the only ones who go to college. the debt relief will help independents and republicans, as well. so many republican leaders are framing it as a handout, ignoring the ppp loans they received, ignoring the fact that, you know, because of trump's inability to govern effectively, giving farmers billions of dollars in bailouts and handouts. so when we think about the debt relief that, for me, who has the honor of working with, you know, young people and college students on a daily basis, the idea of debt really does prevent students from following their dreams in a lot of ways. it creates all types of not just medical and mental health issues but stress and strain, where they can't focus sometimes fully on their academics because they're worried about money. and the future of how much debt they're going to have. that's not just -- i don't teach just democrats. i teach students from all across

the country whose families are struggling. i do think that, in november, we might see a lot of weak-leaning republicans and independents who understand what this relief means. i heard a republican voter say the other day, she didn't leave the party. the party left her. i think as we see more and more extremist republicans doubling down on trump and his policies, especially when it comes to a woman's right to choose, climate change, considering hurricane season, all the issues that aren't democratic issues, they're american issues, i do think that this bodes very well for joe biden and the party, as well as they can contextualize and articulate what exactly they're doing to help all americans move through this. >> claire, as christina says, you certainly can understand why someone like time ryan, running in what has become a red state in ohio, does not want to support this policy, trying to win statewide. i'm thinking about you running in somewhere like missouri, if this issue had come up there. obviously, there are moral questions around it. is it fair? there are legal questions around it. does the president have the power to do this?

economic questions about inflation. this is just a district by district, state by state case, i would think, if you had to run on this issue right now. >> yeah. i think cortez masto makes one good point. the increase in college tuition has been obscene in this country over the last 10, 20 years. i mean, it used to be reasonable for every american in terms of attain a higher education. it's become completely unattainable. i'm not sure biden's policy here works. the other big question about this decision, while i don't disagree with the decision he's made about this, is will it really have the impact they're hoping for with younger voters? my staff used to make a joke, don't waste your time going to college campuses. get to nursing homes. because younger people, historically, have been terrible about turning out to vote, especially in the midterms.

so will this forgiveness of college debt actually have the impact they're hoping for? will younger voters all of a sudden, go, "oh, my gosh, now i have to focus on these elections and getting out to vote"? it'll be interesting to see. i think dobbs decision will do more to get people out to vote. roe v. wade being dismantled. the extreme laws being proposed against women in all the states, on that topic, that'll be more of a motivator than, unfortunately, what the president did around college debt. >> we'll see this small. associate professor of political science at fordham university, christina greer. "politico," sam stein, also doing yeoman's duty on "way too early," bringing us the news in the middle of the night. thank you. >> of course. whether donald trump and his

allies tried to influence georgia's 2020 election results. we'll have a live report on where the special grand jury probe stands this morning. plus, the former president's social media company said to be facing financial problems. we'll tell you just how much money truth social is reportedly refusing to pay. and there are escalating concerns today over the potential for a nuclear disaster in ukraine. we'll get a live report from that country when "morning joe" comes right back.

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[acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] former president trump's social media app truth social is facing financial problems. according to fox business, one of the vendors claims the company is refusing to pay out more than $1 million in contractually obligated payments. the company helped to set up the app's infrastructure and says it

has not received any monthly payments since march. the app, which launched six months ago, bills itself as an alternative to twitter, which suspended trump's account after the capitol attack. right forge, truth social, and a spokesman for trump all did not comment on the claim. claire, this is a report from fox business, notably. the number is $1.6 million this company says trump's truth social owes them. i would point out that trump's pac has raised $100 million since he left office. it is not like he doesn't have cash laying around. >> shocked. i'm just shocked, willie. donald trump not paying bills? say it's not so. whoever does business with this guy? it's one of the -- >> exactly. >> -- reasons he is having difficulty getting a lawyer, right? lawyers don't want to work for him because he is famous for not paying bills. you know, this idea that he takes care of working people,

there's never been anybody who worked for him who got paid the way they should have under normal business practices. this doesn't surprise me. there's controversy about how this enterprise was funded too. it was one of the spac things, meaning we should be weary. there was a lot of money being thrown around, around the creation of this quote, unquote, social media company. i don't think this is the last story we're going to hear about financial problems surrounding quote, unquote, truth. >> mike, as you and i have said before, as claire points out here, if you want to know whether trump pays his bills, ask any electrician in atlantic city over the last four years or so. >> willie, you and i are sitting in a state, a city, new york, where donald trump has been doing business of one kind or another over 40 years.

the years are littered with claimants trying to get money from him for, you know, plumbing work, electrician work, any kind of work. he does not pay his bills. he is a legitimate debt beat. that's a fact. it's history. now, we have this. he's got this, you know, fund he raises money for from poor people who watch him on tv and, you know, oh, he's in trouble. look what they did. they invaded his home at mar-a-lago. i'm going to send him $2 or $5. he's got millions in a specific political fund. like with everything, like with the documents that he has alleged to have been storing at mar-a-lago, he views that money as his money. he's not going to give it out to anybody. he is not going to pay his bills. i'm with claire, i am shocked, shocked, shocked. >> he takes their money and then sends them to the capitol to get arrested while he sits at mar-a-lago. >> yeah. >> by the way, this company, right forge, has not ruled out the possibility, according to fox business, of taking this matter to court.

$1.6 billion -- excuse me, $1.6 million is the number that truth social is said to owe them. coming up this morning, we're going live to ukraine for the latest on an alarming situation. europe's largest nuclear plant went offline yesterday after fires in the russian-controlled area. we'll have the very latest when we come right back. aw... this'll take forev—or not. do i just focus on when things don't work, and not appreciate when they do? i love it when work actually works! i just booked this parking spot... this desk... and this conference room! i am filing status reports on an app that i made! i'm not even a coder! and it works!... i like your bag! when your digital solutions work, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. it's the all-new subway series menu! 12 irresistible new subs... like #9 the champ. rotisserie style chicken double monterey cheddar.

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joe biden and democrats in congress who said just passedout you? the inflation reduction act to lower our costs. the plan lowers the cost of healthcare and medicine and lowers our energy bills by investing in clean energy. that's more savings for us.

europe's largest nuclear power plant was disconnected from ukraine's power grid after shelling sparked fires near the facility. ukraine's national energy company said emergency backup systems sustained crucial operations and supply was restored later in the day. the incident heightened fears of a potential nuclear disaster. joining us now live from central ukraine, nbc news foreign correspondent meagan fitzgerald. this has been a concern, as you know well, for several months

since this war began and since russian kroo troops moved in an around the nuclear power plant. >> reporter: absolutely, willie. as you mentioned, it is this increased shelling that's happening around this highly sensitive situation, around a nuclear plant, one of europe's largest. in this instance, as you said, a fire broke out which knocked the power off the power grid, forcing it to operate temporarily on the backup generators which take diesel. the russians, as you know, occupy this plant, and there is no way of knowing how much diesel the russians have left, should this incident happen again. meanwhile, this knocked off power to thousands of people in the area. they didn't have sewer services. they didn't have water or electricity. it really highlights a potential humanitarian crisis here. we know that the international atomic energy agency says that it could just be a matter of days before a crew of experts are able to go inside the facility. here's the issue there, they want them to go in through the

ukrainian side, and that's something that russia has not yet agreed to. meanwhile, we know vladimir putin is trying to increase his military by 10%, to the tune of nearly 140,000 new troops. we've been speaking with some military experts who say this certainly suggests he is gearing up for a long war, willie. >> nbc's meagan fitzgerald from central ukraine this morning. thanks so much. joining us now, former nato supreme allied commander james stavridis. msnbc's chief international analyst. admiral, great to see you this morning. boy, the russians playing with fire here as they occupy that nuclear power plant. again, the largest in the continent of europe. what are the dangers here? how close could we come to disaster? >> well, i spent two years, willie, in command of enterprise carrier strike group, the uss enterprise, the nuclear powered

aircraft carrier. we had eight reactors. there wasn't a morning i woke up and didn't think, how safe are those? how is the coolant? if you don't have the power, you can't cool the core of the reactor. this happened in chernobyl, fukushima, three mile island, and it leads to a breach which could launch a great deal of radiation in the world. by the way, with shelling going on and military activities, the whole process is well beyond the design specifications to keep it safe. the answer to the question, how dangerous is this, it is massively dangerous. this requires full international attention and getting experts into the plant and getting it out of the combat situation. very dangerous. >> meanwhile, admiral, vladimir putin issued an order yesterday

to recruit more than 100,000 new troops into the russian military. wants to bring his overall number up over 1 million troops, reflecting, perhaps, the long war that he didn't expect to have here. >> i think, willie, it also reflects the combat losses he's experiencing. every intelligence agency now says that russia has killed in action or wounded and knocked out of action somewhere north of 70,000 troops. it's probably closer to 100,000. so if you're trying to run the war from moscow, you know you've got to replenish those troop levels. here's the bad news for vladimir putin, doesn't look like people are exactly signing up in droves in russia. they are, by the way, opening recruitment to people, men from 18 to 60 years old, willie. think about that for a minute. >> wow. >> i'm in my 60s. i don't think the navy is

looking to get admiral stavridis back on active duty any time soon. it shows you how hard a lift this is going to be for the russians. so, yeah, he's going to try and recruit. he's got some real challenges with an unpopular war and a body of people in russia who are gradually waking up to how disastrous this is turning out for their nation. >> i don't know, mike barnicle, i think the navy would take the admiral back, don't you? >> i think we're both happy that he is on active duty here this morning because we need him. admiral, the increase or the potential increase in troop allot ments from russia into ukraine, the cutting off of energy sources from russia to the nato countries, i'm wondering, do you think putin's strategy is now that he is placing a bet, that warm homes and hot water among the nato nations will turn out to be a more important factor in his war

against ukraine than will actually their feeling of freeing and making sure liberation continues and democracy continues in ukraine? >> mike, i think your analysis is correct. putin is trying to turn this into a long game that will certainly drag into the winter. but i'll give you two points to hold in mind, why i think that will not work. number one is the europeans themselves. i wouldn't bet themselves them in this scenario. it's not as though they're going to have granny freezing in the attic. they're going to need to lower -- or, excuse me, raise the thermostat a bit -- lower the thermostat, excuse me, in order to preserve some energy, yes, but they're not looking at apocalyptic events here. i think they'll hold together. number two, you know, if you really look at total energy in europe, gas is about 20% of

that. putin controls 10% of that. he controls 10% of total european energy, so he doesn't have a complete choke hold here. it is going to hurt him, as well. it is hard to rewire gas and send it somewhere else. i think putin is making a bad bet here. but, yes, mike, his bet is that the europeans are going to crack. personally, i wouldn't bet against the europeans. >> admiral, i think the west has, to some extent, unfortunately, moved on a little bit from what's going on in ukraine. talk exactly how is ukraine doing? give us an assessment. if you were in charge of the military in ukraine and you had working knowledge, which you do, of the assets of russia and what losses they've suffered, where are we? are we out of time?

are we in the third quarter? what is the score? i think it is really important we keep reminding the west that the investments they've made have worked and there is really still some really good news on the ukrainian front in terms of the war over democracy. >> senator, i agree. we need to rewind the clock six months and think about where we stood as this invasion started. many analysts believed that putin was going to run the table, take over kyiv, probably capture and kill zelenskyy, and consolidate control of the country. he has failed miserably in that. now, he is back to holding a little bit more than he started with, which is about 20% of the country. so he is not in any sense winning. he's also, as i just mentioned, 80,000 killed and wounded.

his economy is slowly grinding down under sanctions. above all, to your point, we, the west, are putting the right weapons in the hands of the ukrainians so they can reach behind russian lines, go after logistics, go after the well heads that supply fuel going forward, go after that black sea fleet, ensure that grain comes out. all those things are happening. zelenskyy continues to be a highly inspirational leader, while putin increasingly plays the part of a war criminal. when i put all of that together, if i were playing the game of battleship here as an admiral, i'd much rather be on the side of the board that the ukrainians are than the russians. they still have chances, the russians, parts to play, their dirty tricks like the nuclear power play. but overall, the history is

against vladimir putin. >> admiral, while, sensibly, the focus is on ukraine, as it ought to be, the world remains a dangerous place. there's another volatile region in the world i want your -- we want your thoughts on. the korean peninsula down through japan, taiwan, the south china sea, the shipping lanes and china, what is going on in that area of the world? >> as we watch president xi, mike, move toward consolidating his power and being anointed to a third five-year term, we see reverb around the region. you're showing an article i just wrote about u.s. and south korea have gone back to live fire war games, exercises, for the first time in several years. they're doing so because kim is stirring the pot again. talking nukes a minute ago. unfortunately, i think the chances of him conducting a nuclear weapon test sometime

this fall are rising. all of that, frankly, is pushing south korea, japan, australia, new zealand, singapore, even nations like vietnam who are not treaty allies, to want to work more closely with the united states in what is increasingly turbulent he jon. at the center of it, mike, is taiwan encircled, potentially blockaded after the recent visit of speaker pelosi. things are bubbling in asia, and we need to be mindful, even as we keep the focus on ukraine, as i think the administration is doing quite effectively. >> smart to keep an eye on it. former nato supreme allied commander james stavridis, the once and now perhaps future admiral stavridis. let's see if the navy calls after this hit. thanks, admiral. great to see you. still ahead this morning, georgia governor brian kemp was on the right side of history when donald trump tried to meddle in the 2020 election in his state. but the republican still trying to stay as far away as possible

from the investigation into trump's efforts to do so. we'll explain why. plus, an ambitious move in california as the state announces a plan to phase out gas-powered vehicles by 2035. can it happen? is it a good idea? we'll get a live report and discuss next. ome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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i had no idea how much i wamy case was worth. c call the barnes firm to find out what your case could be worth. we will help get you the best result possible. ♪ call one eight hundred, eight million ♪ a live picture as the sun comes up over wrigley field, where claire's cardinals took care of business again last night. the first place st. louis cardinals. meanwhile, on the west coast late last night, the new york yankees got star power back in the lineup. last night in oakland, john carlos stanton knocked in two runs with his second at-bat with that laser. yanks put up 13 runs on the a,'s

without hitting a road run. they've won four straight games for the first time in nearly two months. meanwhile, the mets are the third major league team with 80 wins this season, thanks to the second deck home run from pete alonso. jake degrom strong on the mound, striking out nine colorado rockies over six innings. gave up only a single run. after a tough two-week stretch, the mets have a very soft schedule ahead of them the rest of the way, with 20 games against teams with losing records. they try to hold off the braves. the cubs, as i mentioned, honored two long-time rivals before yesterday's game. albert pujols and molina of the st. louis cardinals had a moment at home plate in their final trip to wrigley field. the legends were praised, writing, we can't say we'll miss you, you tormented us for two decades. speaking of, how about cardinals

star paul goldschmidt, chasing history. the first baseman had three hits, two home runs, 5 rbis in the win over the cubs. national league leader in two of the three categories for the triple crown. only two home runs behind the phillie's player. it was done in the american league in 2012. claire, the cardinals put distance between themselves and the brewers. they're six games up. my god, paul goldschmidt is having a historically great season. >> yeah, it is pretty special to watch goldie work. you know, he is not one of these flashy, let's talk about me kind of guys. in fact, last night when they tried to talk to him about the triple crown and, you know, talk

to him about the fact that he's within striking distance of something that i think most people who follow baseball just assumed probably wasn't going to happen again. he doesn't want to talk about it. he is really focused on the team. we're now six games up over the brewers. now, we're headed into atlanta territory for a series, and we still have some games to play before we can nail down the division. but i am excited about the young guys on this team, and it is way fun to watch pujols and wainwright show people how old men do it. >> you know, willie, last night, i was watching the mets game. they are fun to watch. but the clip we just showed was also fun to watch, of molina and pujols being honored at wrigley field, two of the greats. if goldschmidt wins the triple crown, he will have been the

third cripple crown winner for 50 years. last in '67 and 2012, and goldschmidt is having an incredible year. last night, the highlight was watching the mets game. they had a contest, a young kid, kid broadcasting. they had a young kid, i think he was 11 or 12 years of age. he did a half inning broadcasting with the crew. ron darling, keith hernandez. it was a joy to watch, you saw the magic to baseball in watching to it, listening to it. it is relaxing. it is calming. it's a constant story that america tells itself through watching a baseball game. one of the elements of that story, claire and willie, is the wonderful season that montgomery is having for the st. louis cardinals, traded from the new york yankees to the st. louis cardinals. boy, the yankees do miss him.

>> oh, he's untouchable, claire, as a cardinal. he is untouchable. he was good for us but untouchable with the cardinals. >> yeah, you know, we've been joking around st. louis, he puts on the birds on the bat and turns into sandy koufax. >> they're having a fun season. by the way, pujols only needs seven home runs to get to 700 at 42 years old. let's home he gets there. four more to pass a-rod for fourth all-time on the home run list. it's a fun season, and we're coming down the homestretch. coming up, we will turn back to the news. republicans confronting a slowdown in fundraising, while democrats get a little help from a top surrogate. we're taking a look at the money race as we head closer now to the midterms. plus, president biden's latest approval rating. one of the best he's seen in a year. we'll break down the new numbers when we come back in two minutes.

maga republicans don't just threaten our rights and security, they're a threat to our very democracy. they refuse to accept the will of the people. they embrace, embrace political violence. they don't believe in democracy. this is why, in this moment, those of you who love this country, democrats, independents, mainstream republicans, we must be stronger, more determined, and more committed to saving america than the maga republicans are destroying america. you and 81 million americans voted to save our democracy. that's why donald trump isn't just a former president, he is a defeated former president. and it's not hyperbole, now you need to vote to literally save democracy again. >> president biden fired up, railing against trump

republicans in that return to the campaign trail ahead of the midterms. saying the republican party now has embraced what he called semi-fascism. we'll have more on what he said. plus, we could learn new details this morning about the fbi's search of mar-a-lago. could come, in fact, at any moment now, after a judge ordered the justice department to release a redacted copy of the affidavit by noon today. and the investigation into election meddling in georgia heats up. prosecutors now seeking testimony from former trump chief of staff mark meadows. as georgia governor brian kemp tries to avoid testifying while he runs for re-election. welcome back to "morning joe." it is friday, august 26th. i'm willie geist. mike barnicle, claire mccaskill still with us. we do expect to see a redacted copy of the affidavit used to justify the search of donald trump's florida estate just a few hours from now. a federal magistrate judge ordered the justice department to unseal it by noon today.

saying the government has met its burden to keep portions of the document under wraps. we do not expect to learn the identities of the witnesses or agents involved, nor do we expect to learn much about the investigation strategy, direction, sources or methods. the fbi removed 11 sets of classified documents, incluing some labeled secret and top secret, from trump's south florida home more than two weeks ago. let's bring in nbc news and msnbc legal analyst andrew weisman, the former general counsel to the fbi and served as lead prosecutor, you'll remember, in the mueller special counsel's office. good morning. good to see you. we've been sort of debating and having this discussion this morning about how much we actually might learn about the investigation when this affidavit is unsealed today. what do you expect? >> i think it is worth remembering that any disclosure that we get today, any information, is not going to be good for donald trump.

the reason is two-fold. one, we know the judge who saw the entire affidavit found that there was probable cause to believe that three different crimes had been committed and that evidence of those crimes would be at mar-a-lago. but there's a second reason that any information is not going to be good. that is that almost all of the information that is in that affidavit, except maybe the names of the particular witnesses who are cooperating with them, is known right now to donald trump. he knows what documents he took. he knows why he took them. he knows what he was planning to do with them. at any moment, he could have, for the last 18 months, told us all that. so there's a reason he wouldn't do that, and this is not surprising to claire, he is not doing that becaus it'd be

inculpatory. it's not going to be a good day for donald trump. but i don't think we're going to learn a lot from the actual disclosures. >> yeah, and as you say, we've learned so much in the past couple days. there were more than 100 top secret documents, classified material. we've gotten some insight into what the fbi did seize there. we got the timeline from "the washington post" that the national archives had been asking, first politely for months and months, and then saying we have to take this to congress if you don't turn over the documents. donald trump sifting through documents, telling his aides what to give up and what not to give up. over the last two and a half weeks, the trump team tried on a number of defenses of this. none of them particularly compelling because there is no way, really, is there, andrew, to explain having taken all these boxes from the white house and placed them at mar-a-lago? >> yeah. just to follow that, even if you could assume that it have okay

to take them, in other words, it was just chaos and inadvertent, and that is a big if because there's just too many boxes to fall into that category, nothing explains why they weren't all returned when you had the archives and the department of justice repeatedly asking for them. i think, willie, that's the area where we may learn more today. the sort of back and forth with the archives and with the department of justice. it may fill in some of those questions that really goes to the issue of why was it necessary for the department of justice to sort of finally have to do this by search warrant? because the former president simply was not returning documents that were top secret compartmentalized, the highest level of important documents for our national security. >> andrew, on the last opponent -- point you mentioned, the search warrant, there seems to be an outside eye, looking at

the calendar, the timeline of the events leading up to the search warrant, there was suddenly an extraordinarily accelerated pace to get the search warrant and affect the search warrant. would we learn anything more about that today, do you think, from what skimpy details might be revealed? >> it's possible. it depends how sort of -- i won't say generous, but depends how forward-leaning the department was in saying, you know, this can actually be disclosed. but it is possible that we will learn exactly what caused them to go from a subpoena to a search warrant. we've definitely had reporting they got surveillance tapes, and it appears at least one inside witness telling them, essentially, that although the department got representations from donald trump's own counsel, saying everything had been

returned, i think we may learn a little more today about what caused the department of justice to believe correctly that that was not the case. >> andrew, i have written down the four defenses that trump has put forth to the crimes that are being alleged. one, that the information was planted. two, that he had declassified it. three, someone else packed the boxes, he didn't know what was there. four, he really wanted to cooperate. in my estimation, every single one of those defenses have been blown up by donald trump. he has, in fact, leaked letters that absolutely check every single one of those defenses off the list, so he is left with nothing. my question to you is, this recent filing by his newest -- his ever-changing cast of lawyers -- i put lawyers in

quotes. >> exactly. >> asking for a special master to look at this stuff, is it substantive or is it a stall? >> i don't see how it is substantive. let's leave aside that the federal judge, the day after that was filed, said to those lawyers, with air quotes, "i don't know what you're asking for. i don't know your statutory basis. i don't even know why you came to me and didn't bring this before the judge hearing the search warrant issues." that's never a good sign. but on the merits of what they're asking for, it doesn't make any sense. to the extent that the former president is saying, "i need them back. they're covered by executive privilege," by definition, if the documents are covered by executive privilege, which is a big if, they'd belong in the national archives. the remedy he seeks, return of the documents, makes no sense. these are not his documents. they belong to the federal

government. it should be in the national archives, for good reasons under the statute. so i don't anticipate that that lawsuit is going to go anywhere, you know, substantively. even if his lawyers do get their act together and, you know, correctly file it. >> that's a big if, as you've pointed out. andrew, stay with us. want to get your analysis of this story, as well. developing this morning, attorneys for georgia governor brian kemp are trying to quash a subpoena to appear before the special grand jury investigating attempts to influence the 2020 election. governor kemp was one of the georgia republican officials who declined to help then president trump overturn his 2020 election loss in that state. fulton county d.a. fani willis wants to hear from the governor. but kemp's lawyer argued in court yesterday the republican should not have to testify. let's get the latest from nbc news correspondent blayne alexander. she was at the courthouse

yesterday during the hearing. good morning. what'd we learn yesterday? >> reporter: willie, good morning to you. you know, this really kind of was the latest step in what has been a very kind of explosive relationship between the governor here in georgia and the fulton county district attorney that has exploded into public light through a number of court filings. the hearing was about two hours yesterday. the judge didn't make a final decision. but attorneys for georgia's republican governor brian kemp were arguing, listen, he shouldn't have to come in and testify. they're kind of hanging that on three things. one, they're claiming sovereign immunity. two, executive privilege and attorney/client privilege. but this third part, they're saying that there could be political implications if he were to go in and testify. now, they're looking directly ahead to the november election. you know, they're saying that, essentially, this is one of the most closely watched, if not the most closely watched gubernatorial race in the country. because of all of this going on around the subpoena and him being asked to come in, it is

impossible that this doesn't, in some way, seep into the political landscape and possibly taint his chances for re-election in november. here's what he attorney had to say. >> we're in the middle of an election cycle for, really, the most closely followed gubernatorial race in the country. one or two others may be close, but this is certainly up there. this is happening, coincidentally or otherwise, as this high-profile and politically-charged investigation and governor kemp's role in it are reaching a crescendo. the intersection of law and politics in this way, we believe, shouldn't be happening on the eve of an election. >> reporter: so essentially, they're saying, listen, even if the judge decides not to quash the subpoena, at least let the governor delay his testimony until sometime in late november or early 2023, in order to get the election behind him. but prosecutors say, that's not going to happen. they say, his testimony is so

crucial, they don't want to delay this even further. then they have put it back on kemp's team and essentially said, if you came in and testified when you were supposed to, there wouldn't be all this media attention around it. there wouldn't be the political implications around it. certainly a lot of back and forth. we're expecting to see in the coming days which way this is going to be decided. >> the bottom line here is governor kemp is in a tight race against stacey abrams and does not want to remind republican trump supporters he stood up to trump in 2020. this investigation in georgia also turning its attention to former white house chief of staff mark meadows and attorney sidney powell. the fulton county district attorney filed requests yesterday to compel testimony from the two, stating they were in communication with former president trump, his campaign, and others involved in the multi-state, coordinated efforts to influence the election results in georgia. a fulton county superior court directed meadows and powell to appear before the special purpose grand jury next month.

nbc news reached out to powell and an attorney for meadows for comment. the two are among the highest profile members of trump's circle to be summoned to testify in the probe. joining other top figures like rudy giuliani and republican senator lindsey graham of south carolina. a lot of members of trump's inner circle swept up in this investigation. where does it go from here? >> reporter: you know what, when i had a conversation with the fulton county district attorney about this investigation earlier this summer, she made it clear she is leaving no stone unturned. she is going to perform a robust investigation, and she wants to hear from, she told me, any person who had any sort of knowledge of the president's mindset, of the former president, rather, the former president's actions when it comes to efforts to overturn the election here in georgia and elsewhere. she's making that very clear, calling these people in. in the filings, she said that, essentially, hearing from sidney powell and mark meadows could

possibly uncover other people she'd want to hear from in the future, as well. it is clear this isn't the end of the folks she wants to call in. we can likely see some more high-profile individuals. in fact, when i asked her, she said she's not ruling out members of trump's family. she's not ruling out white house officials and certainly not ruling out calling the president himself to come down to georgia to testify, as well, willie. >> nbc's blayne alexander all over this story in georgia for us. thanks so much. great to see you. andrew, we hear people trying to get a window into the thinking of donald trump in georgia around january 6th and around the election. well, that window was provided on january 2nd, 2021, when he made a phone call, recorded by the secretary of state, where he asked brad raffensperger to find the votes to flip the state for him. >> absolutely. one sign that this is really reaching a crescendo is, as you note, the level of people who are now being called in.

you can be sure that lower-level people and staffers, people on the receiving end of those phone calls and messages from the president, from lindsey graham, have been talked to. but this is a whole new level. to me, it appears to signal that this is wrapping up. i also think that, you know, the prosecutor is right, you want to hear from everyone. that is only the responsible thing to do. there will, of course, be skirmishing. as you know, the grand jury is entitled to every person's testimony, absent to privilege. so what you're seeing now is various people claiming different privileges. none of it seems to be terribly strong. there may be certain areas that the courts say are protected by some sort of privilege, but, in general, those defenses have not worked. >> claire, obviously, donald

trump has some trouble with the justice department around the search of mar-a-lago, but when you look at it, the state of georgia presents perhaps his greatest peril. when you just look at the scope of the people who are around donald trump, trying to flip the election in the state of georgia, and everybody that is being dragged into this investigation. >> yeah, this local prosecutor has experience with their state. she handled the prosecution of the teacher cheating scandal in georgia, where she effectively used that statute to bring a lot of people to justice who had done something terrible within the education system. that's what she's going to do here. what's really going to be interesting to me is what happens when she indicts rudy giuliani? does he ever flip on trump? how quickly does trump kick rudy giuliani to the curb? i say it'll be, like,

immediately, that he will try to distance himself from the man who did more to embarrass himself on the national stage in the nation of donald trump than any other living human being. >> yeah, there's no question. he's not long for this world once he gets into deep trouble. claire, stay with us. former general counsel to the fbi, andrew weissmann, thank you. we appreciate it. ahead on "morning joe," a republican senate candidate changes the language on his website about the issue of abortion, while the head of the rnc pleads donors for money following a surge of money to democrats following the supreme court's decision to overturn roe v. wade. we'll talk about the new signs abortion rights will play a role in the midterm elections. plus, we choose to go to the moon again. nasa set to launch its most powerful rocket ever, as the space agency prepares to send as

astronauts to the moon and beyond. a report from tom costello. plus, the next steps the federal reserve will take to combat inflation. new polls showing president biden's approval numbers up. doesn't mean it'll be smooth sailing in november. we'll talk through the numbers when "morning joe" comes right back. republicans in congress call them "entitlements." a "ponzi scheme." the women and men i served with in combat, we earned our benefits. just like people earned their social security and medicare benefits. but republicans in congress have a plan to end so-called "entitlements" in just five years. social security, medicare, even veterans benefits. go online and read the republican plan for yourself. joe biden is fighting to protect social security, medicare and veterans benefits. call joe biden and tell him to keep fighting for our benefits.

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families are struggling with inflation and congress and president biden just did something about it. signing the inflation reduction act. it means lower drug costs for millions and ramps up production of american-made clean energy, bringing down monthly energy costs for families. and it's the boldest action on climate change we've ever seen. it means lower costs for us and a brighter future for them. a historic win that will bring relief to millions of people. congress and president biden got it done. beautiful live picture on a friday morning. 7:23 at the united states capitol. president obama is helping to fundraise for some of the people who work in the building. senate democrats. obama and senator gary peters, chair of the senatorial campaign committee, will meet for a conversation in new york city early next month. general admissions starts at

$25,000 a ticket. democrats have closed the gap when it comes to who americans want to control congress after the midterms but still face an uphill battle to maintain those majorities, slim though they are in both chambers. emerson college released polling moments ago. in a potential 2024 rematch, president biden holds a one-point edge over former president trump, leading 43% to 42%. that is a statistical tie. 8% plan to vote for someone else. 6% are undecided. since last month, trump has lost a couple of points, while biden has gained three points. all of that, though, within the margin of error. congressional republicans, meanwhile, hold on to a one-point lead over congressional democrats on the generic ballot. 45% to 44%. that is unchanged from july. and the poll finds president biden with 42% job approval. 51% of americans disapprove in

the poll, reflecting a two-point increase in the president's approval and a two-point decrease in his disapproval since last month. also, according to a gallup poll released yesterday, 44% ofdults job biden is doing, up from 38% in july. the increase driven largely by independent voters, whose approval rose from 31% last month to 40% now. the president gets the highest marks in his handling of coronavirus crisis and the environment, while his lowest approval comes on issues like abortion and the economy. something to keep in mind, president obama also had a 44% approval rate at this point in his presidency. democrats lost 63 house seats the following election. president obama called it a shellacking. mike barnicle, when you look inside the new numbers, president biden holding steady, ticking up in some polls over the last few months or so, but perhaps not as much as he or the

white house would like, given the legislative accomplishments that they're putting forward recently. >> yeah. certainly not, willie. those numbers will probably change. my thing is, just observationally -- and, claire, i want to know if you feel the same thing. you're there at home. you go out every day, grocery shopping, stuff like that. the volatility in the electorate is extraordinary, at least to me. you haven't seen it this volatile, this changing rapidly in a long, long time. i think a lot of it has to do with what we've all experienced over the past few months, inflation, grocery stores, you know, charging incredible prices for meat and potatoes, things like that. then gas prices up, down, everything like that. what's your view on the volatility and the impact it is having on, not only polling but opt candidate on the candidates themselves? >> well, i think volatility is a much bigger deal today than it has been in the past, just

because things have gotten so intense and emotional around not just donald trump and his effort to give the back of his hand to a free and fair election in this country, but also over the issues that have surged to the front of everyone's mind over the last several months, especially around abortion rights in this country. but i want to make sure we point something out about this polling. first of all, i loved it, willie, that you talked about the independents and what is going on with the independent voter. for people who are in tough elections, whether it is a swing district in the house or whether it's in pennsylvania or wisconsin or nevada or arizona, those are the voters we need to be talking about and focusing on. enthusiasm in the base is important for turnout, but in terms of persuasion, pulling those independent voters out of the polls and looking at what is

going on with the independent voters is really way more important than what the overall top lines of a nation are. because those get skewed by very republican areas and very democratic areas. as we know, presidents get elected and power goes to one party or the other in congress based on what the swing voters do in november. that's where we really need to focus. that's why i think it is really important to know that biden's approval rating has ticked up with those important voters, to the people out there trying to raise money and win elections. >> great point. it was a big jump of 9 points along independents, and that is exactly the voter tim ryan is talking to in ohio, john fetterman in pennsylvania, arizona. you can go down the list of states where independents will be crucial statewide. coming up, california makes a major move, banning the sale of new gas-only cars beginning in the near 2035. we'll look at the way that could

change car sales in this country, obviously, and around the world. up next, the republican candidate for senate in arizona, blake masters, literally trying to rewrite history on his stance on abortion. we'll break down the larger problem republicans seem to have after the supreme court's ruling on abortion. how it could cost them in november. and some new polling out of michigan showing trouble for the republican there who has some wild views on abortion. we'll break it down when "morning joe" returns. twelve irresistible new subs. the most epic sandwich roster ever created. ♪♪ it's subway's biggest refresh yet! finding the perfect designer isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found her. she's in austin between a fresh bowl of matcha and a fresh batch of wireframes. and you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com

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how extreme are these maga republicans? just take a look what happened since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. in red state after red state, there is a race to pass the most restrictive abortion limitations imaginable, even without exception for rape or incest. these maga republicans won't stop there. they want a national ban. they want to pass a legislative

national ban in the congress. if the maga republicans win control of the congress, it won't matter where you live. women won't have the right to choose anywhere. anywhere. let me tell you something, if they take it back and try to pass it, i will veto it. >> president biden yesterday in maryland. the head of the republican national committee is acknowledging the decision on overturning abortion rights has affected fundraising. mcdaniel was recorded on a phone call saying the party needs help to win back the senate in november. that's according to "politico" which obtained a copy of the recording. quote, during a 36-minute call, there was a favorable political environment, but mcdaniel said republican candidates are swamped by democrats in the

chase for campaign cash. the supreme court's june decision nixing roe versus wade, mcdaniel said, triggered a gusher of online donations for the opposition. joining us, the founder of the conservative website the bulwark, charlie sykes, and victoria defrancesco soto. victoria, looking at this issue of abortion and the impact it'll have, we can look at the impact it's already had in the primary races. the impact on the ballot initiative in kansas. the impact it had in places like nebraska, where you might not expect it. clearly, not just democrats, independents and some republicans are turned off, to say the least, by what happened at the supreme court. >> willie, in the previous segment, claire was highlighting the importance of independent voters, and this is really what is boils down there. in either base of the party, you see strong support for the

pro-choice or pro-life stance, but the elections will be won on the margins. a lot of the states are purple. not a lot but some are purple districts. this is what is problem and what i think is emblematic of the push for independence, is the ad that came out yesterday. i thought it was phenomenal by beto o'rourke. it was an ad targeting not just independents but independent women. we know women outvote their male counterparts. they think this is going to be a micropopulation that we need to keep our eyes on, women. suburban moms, soccer moms, whatever you want to call them. because this is something that really has a tangible impact on them. among the independent class is going to be the women who move the needle in 2022 and i'd also argue in 2024. >> charlie, we'll talk about

blake masters, the republican nominee for senate, running from his primary position on abortion, now trying to swing back to the middle. gretchen whitmer is up double digits against a candidate who said grotesque things about abortion. how much is this going to play in the midterms? >> i think it is going to be significant. and i think it was underappreciated when the supreme court decision came down because it took a while for people to understand that there was a fundamental reality shift. for 50 years, we were able to talk about this issue without real world consequences. you could have a republican candidate declare that they were pro-life without having to fill in the specifics, without any real prospect that these restrictions would be enacted. of course, as president biden said, what we've seen since roe versus wade has been this also massive reality check. one state after another has

taken very extreme positions, banning abortion. now, for a lot of voters, this was not even conceivable before. you know, by the way, i also want to say, you know, claire mccaskill is absolutely right about the swing voters. in terms of the intensity of voter engagement, yes, democrats are more engaged, but i'm also really picking up a lot of sense of the crack in the republican coalition, as well. there are a lot of republican women who are pro-choice, but it hasn't affected their votes because it didn't matter. roe versus wade was the law of the land. now, they realize that it does. i think you're seeing more democrats engage and a lot of republicans who are republican women, in particular, who are deeply concerned about what's happening to abortion rights. as the blake masters story is going to reflect, republican

politicians have really not figured out how to talk about this or behave in this post dobbs environment. again, 50 years of political legal reality shifting, and it's caught a lot of people flat-footed. >> yeah, it's not a theoretical debate anymore. it's real. >> right. we got new poll numbers into us. democratic governor gretchen whitmer in michigan has a strong lead over republican tudor dixon in the race for governor. the epic-mra poll released this morning shows if the election were held down, 50% of respondents would vote for whitmer, while 39% for dixon. 11% still undecided. here is what tudor dixon on the topic of abortion told a station in detroit, on why she opposes the idea of allowing teenage rape victims to receive abortions. >> i've talked to some other legislators about this, and

they've met the same people i've met who told their story of once this child knew they were in their second or third trimester, and i am that child. i talked to those people who were the child of a rape victim. the bond that those two people made, and the fact that, out of that tragedy, there was healing through that baby, it's something we don't think about because we assume that that story is someone who was taken from the front yard, then returned. that's generally not the story there. those choices, the babies of rape victims that have come forward, are very powerful when you hear their story and what the truth is behind that. it's very hard to not stand up for those people. >> claire, you didn't hear that incorrectly. tudor dixon, the republican nominee to be the next governor of michigan, said there is healing for a 14-year-old -- that was the question, what about a 14-year-old rape victim?

tudor dixon said the 14-year-old should deliver the baby because there is healing in that baby. healing from the rape she experienced. hard to know what to say. >> yeah, i don't know what front yard she's talking about, but as somebody who handled a lot of cases of rape, until you've sat across the table in a quiet room with a rape victim, i don't think you really understand the trauma that attaches to that, and the notion we're going to make children have forced birth by the government when they have been raped, sometimes by their stepfather, sometimes by an uncle, by a family member, the idea that that's what these guys think the policy should be in this country. the anger that that instills in women across this country, i can't describe it. i can't describe the frustration

and anger that i feel about forcing a child to give birth under those circumstances. blake masters can try to spin what he has done, but women know better. they know that -- i mean, i know i'm jumping to the next story, but i'm so angry about this creepy blake masters and what he is trying to pull off against mark kelly in arizona. they're all going to try to do it, but i think people have figured out what they're up to. i think it may be, in fact, what saves the midterms for the democratic party this year. >> we'll get to the details of the blake masters story in a second. victoria, this was not a slip of the tongue or an outlier of a comment for t du tudor dixon in michigan. she said previously the 14-year-old being raped is a, quote, perfect example of why they need to ban abortion. she's defended that, too, when asked about it. we don't point to her as extreme case. we know that even just this week

in texas and other states, that new trigger laws went into effect that do, in fact, give no exception for rape or abortion. this is happening across the country in the wake of the roe decision. >> one word, willie, and that is overreach. what we have seen with the overturning of roe v. wade and the trigger laws across the country is this extreme position that we saw in the comments by tudor dixon. whereas, when you dig into the numbers of support for abortion rights, you do see a variation based on the term, how many weeks into a pregnancy. you do start to see a decrease in that support when you get up to the second trimester, 24 weeks. but when you're still in the first trimester or even not all the way through the second, you still see a plurality of americans supporting the right to a legal abortion in all or most cases. i think that when we hear those comments, such as those of tudor

dixon, that's the overreach that pushes people to say, no, this is inexcusable. the overreach translates into mobilization and what we're seeing in the polls and what i foresee is going to be what we end up seeing at the ballot box in november. >> as we said, this is playing in arizona, as well. with recent polling showing republican senate nominee blake masters trailing the democratic senator there, mark kelly. masters is trying to soften his views on the issue of abortion rights. in a new ad released yesterday, masters accused kelly of lying about his stance of reproductive rights and claimed democrats were trying to cover for their extreme positions, if you can follow that. soon after, masters website had a makeover, but not before screenshots were captured by nbc news. gone are proclamations of masters being, quote, 100% pro

life, stripping funding for research that uses embryonic cells and support for a law that classifies abortion as murder. all gone from the site, but there was. in its place is softer language, calling roe versus wade a bad decision and pledging support for laws that ban late-term abortions. it wasn't just masters' website that once expressed those extreme views on abortion. here's a campaign ad from mark kelly featuring masters' own words. >> blake masters has made his dangerous ideas on abortion easy to understand. >> i think roe v. wade was wrong. i think it's always been wrong. it's a religious sacrifice for these people. i think it is demonic. >> for blake, taking away health care freedom for arizona women is the beginning. >> we should go further. no state can permit abortions. you make it illegal and punish the doctors. >> blake masters, too dangerous for arizona. >> joining us now, one of the reporters who uncovered the masters website makeover, nbc

news senior national political correspondent marc caputo. marc, thanks for being here this morning. we laid out some of it, but what all was on the site for blake masters during the primary, when he was trying to win the support of trump voters and other republicans, and what is now gone as he tries to win some independents and take this statewide? >> right. overall, there were four bullet points -- pardon me, six bullet points. now there are four. among the things that are missing, and some of them have just changed outright, was kind of hard core language that you hear from the anti-abortion activists. the use of the term abortionists, stripping all funding from, quote, abortionists. the big one is the person hood law. previously, blake masters supported a personhood law or constitutional amendment. those deposit that life begins at conception. therefore, any abortion beyond that is murder.

the disconnect with his position now is he says he supports abortion up to 15 weeks with some restrictions and some various rule. on one hand, during the primary, he was against abortion after conception, period, full stop, because he supported that personhood law. now, there's this 15-week language he is embracing. when we reached out to the campaign, they defined the personhood law differently from the way it is defined in arizona. there is a law there that has been put on hold by a judge that says life begins at conception. also, there is a federal bill in congress from republicans that also defines person hoodpersonh beginning at conception. i was looking at twitter and i saw his ad move. i clicked it and thought, wow, this is interesting. there's basically a republican leading off by calling his democrat a liar, you know, typical, both sides accuse each other of that. but in this ad from a very conservative candidate, i was listening to him basically

describe himself in other terms and in other races as essentially pro-choice in some circumstances. i thought, huh, let me go to his website. i saw the personhood stuff. i was like, wow, this is different. my colleague, alan smith, and i teamed up and made some calls. right after alan called the campaign for blake masters, suddenly, the website changed. but we figured that would happen, so we screen-capped it ahead of time. it is a good example, as we pointed out in our story and you pointed out here, abortion is problematic currently for republicans. chuck coughlin, a republican pollster in arizona, says his polling shows masters down by ten points to mark kelly. he attributes a good amount of that movement to abortion, not just because of the policy in and of itself, but it is a gateway issue for democrats to frame republicans as being too extreme. according to coughlin's polling, you not only have women who disproportionately don't like masters, but you also have

independents who are turning away from him. voters over 64. i ask, what is it about abortion voters over 64 are concerned about? they're tired of the sense from the far right that they want everything changed and it is too radical. they just want the ship to kind of slow down. they want the traffic to stop and things to go back to the way they were. now, obviously, it's early on. we have months to go before the election. masters' reaction, his etch-a-sketching is showing it is problematic for republicans in some states, especially swing states like arizona. >> i'm curious on the group in arizona, is this going to impact the support he has from the far right? because they're going to be paying attention here. they will not accept any

backtracking on somebody who has plainly said he wants a constitutional amendment to make all abortions illegal from the moment of conception. what's gong on there? and how is peter thiel playing in this? you know, this big how is peter theil playing in this? he's a billionaire that created blake masters. it is creepy. he's behind the scenes pulling the strings and funding this guy. what is the sense among the base of the republican party about what this guy is trying to do on what is a core position for them? >> well, i would hesitate to answer that question because i don't have the polling. we haven't done enough interviews to firmly say, okay, this is what republicans are thinking or the grassroots are thinking. but you are right, generally in both parties, but when it comes to abortion, when you have very committed single issue voters and you start to go wobbly on it, it's a problem.

we're going to find out if that's true here. certainly mark kelly has now the money and the organization to be able to press this forward and make that clear to so-called pro-life or antiabortion voters. what we don't know is what the peter theil's position on this, the billionaire tech giant. he's not only funding and has propped up blake masters in arizona, he's also done the same for j.d. vance in ohio. vance has had a few stumbles, but the difference is arizona is becoming and is now a purple state. ohio used to be a purple state and is pretty red. so to see the way it will affect the country in swing states, it's arizona where the post attention is going to be paid in this regard. >> charlie, i am still stunned at the statements of tudor dixon

that we just heard a few moments ago. i'm wondering what your sense is of the following among republicans who are having such a difficult time dealing with the issue of abortion in the wake of the supreme court decision. do you sense any movement, any lingering aspect of people now wondering about the threat to democracy posed by these changes that people have lived with for 50 years, not just on abortion, but on the threat to democracy? >> well, i sense the kind of concern and exhaustion that mark was just talking about, the pace of change has been so fast. i mean, the extremism and the recklessness. listening to tudor dixon, if you were drawing up a template of the worst possible talking point for the pro-life movement of the republican party, it would sound pretty much like this. the other point is that for the pro-life movement, and i've been

talking about these issues for 50 years, and up until about five minutes ago, most republican politicians understood that if you were talking about this issue, you didn't talk about rape and incest and the life of the mother. those were exceptions because, of course, you wanted to put the focus someplace else. this is what i was talking about before, the inability of republicans to talk about this. so what you have on display is the extremism that has come to dominate this particular debate. and rather than engaging in persuasion or changing hearts and minds on this issue, everyone has doubled down on how draconian can we make these particular legal restrictions. so what you're seeing exposed, i think, is, in fact, the ramming speed of the extreme wings of the republican party that have left moderates, centrists and more pragmatists behind.

and people like blake masters can try to scrub that record, but i think it's going to be difficult. the senator makes a good point. this is going to be very difficult for republican politicians to finnesse, because if they back away, the loudest voices in the party right now will demand absolute purity. >> senator mccaskill makes a good point. thank you all so much for being here this morning. we appreciate it. coming up next, nasa is preparing to launch its most powerful rocket ever. nbc's tom costello will join us with the space agency's hopes that this launch will usher in a return to the moon and maybe to mars. we're back in just two minutes.

♪ it wasn't me by shaggy ♪ you're never responsible for unauthorized purchases on your discover card.

the excitement is building around nasa's return mission to orbit the moon, scheduled to launch monday morning.

it is an uncrewed test flight to check out all the systems before astronauts hopefully climb aboard next. if this looks familiar it's because nasa is borrowing heavily from the apolo moon missions 50 years ago. joining us, nbc news correspondent, tom costello, who covers nasa. this morning he's at the smithsonian air and space museum near washington, d.c. tom, this is exciting. >> reporter: very exciting. a lot of buzz here. people are descending on cape canaveral. we're near dulles airport. this is a new chapter. after retiring the space shuttle fleet 11 years ago, nasa is now going back to the moon and eventually mars. to get there, it's using a rocket named after apolo's twin greek god, artemis. nasa's artemis rocket is the

biggest to stand on the pad in 50 years and it is different, flanked with two boosters, it will be 15% more powerful than the monster rockets that carried apolo astronauts to the moon. and this morning all systems are go for a monday morning launch and an un-crewed 42-day test flight to orbit the moon. >> we are pushing the vehicle to its limits, really stressing it to get ready for crew. >> we've mitigated the risk as far as we can and now it's our time to get to launch so that we get that data that we need to put crew on it. >> reporter: within two years, astronauts will ride on top of the rocket. the entire artemis stack looks something like apolo on steroids, with critical upgrades for future astronauts. it's a lot bigger than apolo. four astronauts fit in these chairs here. they have a retractible rowing machine for exercise, and

something apolo didn't have, underneath my feet, a commode. nasa is testing out this new astronaut suit for future missions, replacing the suits won by shuttle astronauts. the new suit should keep astronauts alive for 144 hours should the spaceship use cabin pressure. >> there's a port where using a specialized bag design, we can put liquid nutrition in there, and the crew member can turn their head in the helmet, be able to drink that so we have the proper nutrition. >> is it hot? >> it's cool, sir, i have cooling that keeps me nice and cool. >> even on a hot houston day? >> yes, sir. >> reporter: if this mission goes well, an astronaut mission will follow, then a lunar landing in 2025 and a moon base. returning from its mission, it

will return faster than the space shutting, mach 32. a brand new heat shield will protect future crews before parachuting into the pacific ocean. >> the main objective we want to get out of the test flight is stressing the heat shield, getting a test of the heat shield at lunar entry velocity. >> reporter: yeah, mach 32, that's 32 times the speed of sound, and 5,000 degrees, that's half the temperature of the sun. so they've got to make sure that heat shield works. and then just like apolo, they will parachute down, land in the ocean, and then navy divers will -- first of all, they'll make sure the ship is safe. eventually there will be astronauts onboard, they'll make sure they're safe. un-crewed mission here, willie, but they are going to have high-tech test dummies inside to

gauge the effects of this mission, artemis, all on the human body so they can put humans on the next flight. >> a little more technology, and as you say, a commode this time around. it's so exciting. we'll be watching on monday morning. nbc's tom costello, thank you so much. and the next hour, "morning joe" begins right now. >> there's a lot at stake. i want to be crystal clear of what's on the ballot this year. your right to choose is on the ballot this year. [ cheers and applause ] >> the social security you paid for from the time you had a job is on the ballot. the safety of your kids from gun violence is on the ballot. and it's not hyperbole, the very survival of our planet is on the ballot. your right to vote is on the ballot. even the democracy. are you ready to fight for these things now? [ cheers and applause ]

>> well, then you need to do one thing, vote, vote. [ crowd chanting ] >> you've got it. >> president biden firing up a crowd in maryland as he returns to the campaign trail where his first rally ahead of the midterm elections happened. it's what he told donors earlier in the day that really got republicans riled up. we'll walk you through his remarks. plus, the latest on the justice department investigation into donald trump. at any moment now we expect to see a redacted copy of the affidavit used to justify the fbi search of mar-a-lago two and a half weeks ago. we'll talk about what we could learn when that document comes out. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." i'm willie geist. with us, contributor mike barnicle, former united states senator and msnbc political

analyst, claire mcgas skill. we walk up to news, a redacted copy of the affidavit used to conduct the search at donald trump's mar-a-lago estate will be made public by noon today. judge bruce reinhart yesterday ordered it to be unsealed after the justice department submit the redacted version. he underlined what sections were redacted before public release saying i find that the government has met eyes burden showing a compelling reason to seal portions of the affidavit, because disclosure would reveal the identities of witnesses law enforcement, uncharged parties. the investigation strategy, direction, scope, sources and methods and grand jury information protected by federal rule of criminal procedure. the fbi removed 11 sets of classified documents, including some labelled secret and top secret from trump's south

florida home on august 8th. joining us, congressional investigations reporter for the "washington post" and former u.s. attorney and senior fbi official, chuck rosenberg. good morning, guys. chuck, i'll start with you. what is reasonable for us to expect when this document in a matter of hours is made public? will we learn much about the investigation or will it be, as some have said, just pages of redacted black lines? >> well, maybe a little bit of both, willie. think about the affidavit in two buckets. i don't want to oversimplify it, i just want to simplify it. bucket number one, it will be the procedural history, what led us to this point. and it may include information about the back and forth between the national archives and the former president, who seemed to reclaim documents that belong to the government and not mr. trump personally. that's the procedural stuff. bucket number two is sort of the factual underpinning of the affidavit, why there is probable

cause, what crimes the government believed were committed and why they believed they would find evidence of those crimes at mar-a-lago. i think we're going to see a good bit from bucket one, the procedural stuff. we've seen reporting on that, willie. it may confirm some of the reporting and it may add a few details to the reporting. but i don't think we're going to see anything -- or i should say very little, if anything, from bucket number two, sort of the substantive, factual underpinnings of the probable cause determination, for the reasons the judge said. you have witnesses out there, you have uncharged parties out there, and you have the scope and the direction of the investigation, which needs to remain sealed while the investigation is ongoing. so a good bit, perhaps, from bucket one, not very much, if anything at all, from bucket number two. >> jackie, judge reinhardt has been walking this line for the last couple of weeks, acknowledging, perhaps, the

interest in making some of this public, just showing the justification for the search warrant that was granted to mar-a-lago, and then the other side saying we understand there's an ongoing investigation and there are people's names, sources and strategies that should not be made public. what do you expect to see today? you've been reporting on this so closely. >> yeah, willie, i think we need to note that in the unredacted form this would provide the most comprehensive rationale for why the government had wanted to search trump's property. but as for reasons that were laid out by jay bratt himself in front of the court last week, there has been a feeling amongst justice department officials that this would highly jeopardize the current investigation. i think we can expect to ultimately see something that is heavily redacted, but might shed a little bit of new light on the

timeline, as chuck pointed out, but is unlikely to reveal sources and methods and what they ultimately believed might have been on the premises. as we previously reported, we know that they were looking for information related to sources and methods and potentially items related to the u.s.'s nuclear program. we also know the information they ultimately took is some of the most sensitive information in the u.s. government and is highly sensitive and could be a very serious breach to national security. it's very unlikely that what we're going to see released today will confirm some of that. >> yeah, claire, if you read the judge's order, basically he accepts the justice department's redactions, and obviously they wouldn't leave anything in there that they thought would

jeopardize witnesses or jeopardize their investigation. the judge calling this is least onerous alternative to just unsealing the entire affidavit. >> yeah, willie, the timeline that you just put up is such a clear roadmap of facts for a jury on the presidential records act and the fact that this president saw these records as his, like a little baby, they're mine, you can't have them. and he fought with the archivists for a full year over giving back these top secret, classified documents. and i think what has to happen now -- and this is what i want to ask chuck, we know what has happened, we can clearly see what has happened. give us a sense of the timeline going forward. i mean, the clock is ticking, chuck. this has taken an awfully long time, even from the moment that the archivists realized that classified documents had been part of the boxes that he

grudgingly sent back, it's been months and months before we've gotten to this point. there's a big election in a couple of years and i don't understand why there doesn't seem to be more of a sense of urgency around the timing of this investigation. help us out there. >> yeah, good questions, claire. so i think the department of justice gave a lot of -- was very patient and gave mr. trump and his lawyers sort of every opportunity to do the right thing, sort of like lucy and charlie brown and the football. lucy never actually holds it for charlie brown to kick it through the uprights, and trump and his team never quite do the right thing. so after months and months and months, to your point, claire, of trying to get the stuff back by asking, and that didn't work, and then through a grand jury subpoena, and that apparently didn't work, they finally executed the search warrant. so i think that explains a good bit of the delay.

i don't blame the department of justice for trying to do it more gently and i certainly don't blame them for ultimately getting a search warrant and executing it on the home. the stuff that was in the house was among the most damaging, potentially, if released improperly material, that we have in our holdings. what happens next and how quickly does that happen? also a hard question to answer. i know you were a state prosecutor, i was a federal prosecutor. i think you're used to things moving more quickly than i am. i don't see this delay as unnecessary and the statute of limitations gives the department of justice plenty of time. that said, i hope they move, we know they have an ongoing investigation. we won't learn all the details of that when this affidavit is released in redacted form, but we'll learn a little more. but remember, the justice department has to do a thorough

investigation, because if they bring charges, they only have one shot at it. so they have to get this thing right. >> jackie, this seems to have been going on for quite some time, although it hasn't, but it's going to be released this morning. it's going to be a version of clue, i would imagine, with all the redactions. what specifically would you be looking for, having covered this for so long? what would you be looking for when you read the final report that's released this morning in terms of guidance, in terms of direction from what you already know and have reported? >> that is a really good question, mike. and this has been going on, i think, for longer than most of us realize, and we keep uncovering new information that extends the timeline even further. just two days ago we reported that lawyers for the former president knew two weeks before he left office that there were

two dozen boxes in the residence that needed to be sent to the archives, that the archives then in may of 2021 had started to try to track down. so this is something that has been on the radar for trump's advisers since, again, he transitioned out of the white house. but i think what i'll be looking for today and what we may or may not receive from the redacted affidavit is just any more light on the efforts that the fbi took to get these documents back, any indication of further communications with members of the former president's legal team, because i think that really helps bolster their obstruction case and argument, which is one of the reasons they executed the search warrant to begin with. also, anything that i think shows when they might have had any interviews or conversations that prompted the execution of

this search warrant. we had reported that the fbi was still conducting interviews and had some lined up in these recent coming weeks, that they ended up canceling because they needed to get in there and urgently seize these boxes from mar-a-lago. and as we know so far, they have not rescheduled those interviews that they previously had. so i'll be following all of the breadcrumbs. the thing we all want to see, we are not going to see, is what exactly they took. but maybe if there's any more information that is given on what they could have been looking for, like vague, unclassified descriptors of this information, i'll also be looking closely for that. >> we all will be hunting through those black lines when the document comes out. it could be during our show this morning. the judge said the affidavit

must be unsealed by noon today. so it could be at any hour. former u.s. attorney and senior fbi official, chuck rosenberg, thank you both so much, as always. president biden stepped back onto the campaign trail yesterday with a fundraiser and rally in the d.c. suburbs of maryland. he railed against what he called maga republicans at both events, telling donors what we're seeing now is the beginning of an extreme maga philosophy. it's not just trump, it's the entire philosophy. it's like semi-fascism, said the president. the rnc hit back with a statement, despicable, they wrote, biden forced americans out of their jobs, transferred money from working families to harvard lawyers and sent our country into a recession while families can't afford gas and groceries. democrats don't care about suffering americans, they never did, a quote from the rnc. here is what the president said later at a rally for maryland democrats in rockville.

>> the alternative to the democrats are the maga republicans. the maga republicans have awakened a powerful force in america, the women of this nation. maga republicans don't have a clue about the power of women. let me tell you something, they are about to find out. the maga republicans don't just threaten our personal rights and economic security, they're a threat to our very democracy. they refused to accept the will of the people. they embrace political violence. they don't believe in democracy. this is why in this moment those of you who love this country, democrats, independents, mainstream republicans, we must be stronger, more determined, and more committed to saving america than the maga republicans are destroying america. >> president biden campaigning in maryland yesterday. let's bring in associate

professor of political science at fordham university, christina greer. it's great to see you. democrats, some have wanted joe biden to come in and campaign. he was campaigning with the gubernatorial candidate, wes moore in maryland. others have said, no thanks, we appreciate the offer but please don't come campaign in our state right now. but let's talk about that message, kind of a foundational argument about the stakes this fall that democracy is on the ballot. >> absolutely, willie. the stakes are high, democracy, absolutely is on the ballot. i think joe biden and the rest of the democrats need to do a combination of touting the accomplishments of the biden administration, of which there are many, while also explaining the danger that we face if democrats don't maintain control in november and also looking forward to november of 2024. so what joe biden is laying out is absolutely correct, but i think he needs to weave in not just sort of a woman's right to

choose and not just the threat about democracy and violence and climate change, but the wins that he's had over these past few months, making sure that pocketbook issues that voters actually go to the polls to think about are also equally contextualized and explained on a local, state and federal level. >> sam stein, how much are we going to see of provided? he's gone into some states where democratic candidates have said their schedules were full and they couldn't find time to have him join them on the campaign trail because in some ways he might hurt them. is he going to be out there on the trail a bunch this summer and fall? >> he'll be out there more than he has been. we already have been alerted to future travel in and around the area. but also to sell some of these recent legislative accomplishments, whether it's the chips bill or this inflation reduction act. one of the things to be blunt

about it is that he has had covid. there was a lot of concern about him getting out there and getting sick. he had covid, he had a rebound case, so there is a bit of a reprieve right now that he can go out there without too much fear of reinfection and that actually does matter for him. but also, you know, they're on the upswing. there's wind at their backs, to borrow a metaphoric cliche, and there is a sense in the white house that this is the time to keep pushing. they feel buoyed by all the recent good news, the legislative momentum, the special election results in new york. and so they want to hit and they want to hit hard. the question is, are there factors that can change the dynamics between now and november, is there another inflation report that comes out, will gas prices go back up after falling for 70 straight days. so those are the big atmospheric factors. but i would expect to see biden

a little bit more than we have seen him so far. >> so let me ask you, in terms of the importance of president biden appearing back out on the stump, his approval ratings have jumped from the mid-30s to the mid-40s, and he has a series of deliverables that he can talk about, drug prices coming down, insulin, the cost of insulin coming under control, gas prices coming down. and there is some construction work going on around the country. you can see it. it's visible to a lot of motorists and pedestrians. you can see work being done with federal money. how important is it to slam those items home, the fact that we passed this, we passed that, as well as talk about the undercurrent of the dangers to democracy presented by, as the president used the phrase continually, maga republicans? >> yeah, i mean, i think it is

important for him to get out there, mike, but let's take a little bit of a reality check here. in a lot of these battleground states, candidates don't really want national people in. they are really focusing on the people of that state, trying to get the keep issues local, whether it is gas prices or whether it's what's being built as a result of build back better and all of the money that was put into infrastructure. but in fairness, i think we always talk about joe biden's unpopularity and how he can't get out there. we've also got to talk about trump's. are these candidates going to want trump out there? trump is not popular with many of the voters that are in flux right now, the ones who maybe voted for trump and then came back and voted for biden. those are the voters that are the sweet spot for most of these contested senate races around the country, trying to get those

obama-trump-biden voters back in the fold. trump is just as big a problem for republican candidates as biden might be for the democratic candidates. >> that's a great point. we saw that in the special election in new york this week, where the republican candidate did not want to talk about donald trump, just made it about the economy. he still lost by a few points up there. president biden's move this week to relieve student loan debt is being met with some criticism now from even democratic lawmakers. the majority have come out in support of the move, of course, but a handful of democrats, in particular those in close midterm races, have taken another position. ohio's senate nominee, tim ryan, argues the move sends the wrong message to millions of ohioans without a degree, working just as hard to make ends meet. senator masto of nevada says she disagrees with the move, adding the executive action does not address the root problems that

make college unaffordable. congressman golden of maine writes the decision is out of touch with what the majority of people want from the white house. so those are outliers, professor greer, in the democratic party, but it's certainly, among some independents and certainly most republicans, that is the case, that people who didn't go to college are now footing the bill for people who did. president biden, of course, takes a different view. he thinks it's good, transformational for their lives and politically, perhaps, helps bring out some younger voters who he has helped get out from under this debt. >> right. a few things, willie. one, as the senator laid out, all politics are local in a lot of ways and those outliers actually understand what's going on in their state and that's why they're framing their disdain of biden's choice. democrats aren't the only ones who go to college and this debt relief will help independents and republicans as well. so many republican leaders are framing it as a handout, ignoring the ppp loans they

received, ignoring the fact that because of trump's inability to govern effectively we had to give farmers billions of dollars in bailouts and handouts. so when we think about the debt relief that, for me, the honor of working with young people and college students on a daily basis, the idea of debt really does prevent students from following their dreams in a lot of ways. it creates all types of not just medical issues and mental health issues, but a real stress and strain where they can't even focus sometimes fully on their academics because they're actually worried about money, and the future of how much debt they're going to have. i don't teach just democrats. i teach students from all across the country whose families are really struggling and i do think that in november we might see a lot of weak leaning republicans and independents who understand what this relief means, and as i heard a republican voter say the other day, she didn't leave the party, the party left her. as we see more and more extreme

ist republicans doubling down on trump and his policies, especially when it comes to a woman's right to choose, climate change, all these issues that aren't democratic issues, they're american issues, i do think that this bodes very well for joe biden and the party as long as they can contextualize and articulate what exactly they're doing to help all americans move through this. >> claire, as christina says, you certainly can understand why someone like tim ryan running in what has become a red state in ohio, does not want to support this policy. i'm thinking about you running somewhere like missouri, if this issue had come up, there are obviously moral questions around it, is it fair, there are legal questions around it, does the president have the power to do this, and then economic questions about inflation. this is just a district-by-district, state-by-state case, i would think, if you had to run on this issue right now. >> yeah, and i think katherine cortez masto makes a good point, the increase in college tuition

has been obscene in this country over the last, 10, 20 years. i mean, what used to be reasonable for every american in terms of attaining a higher education has become completely unobtainable. i'm not sure biden's policy works. the other big question about this, while i don't disagree with the decision he's made, is will it really have the impact they're hoping for with younger voters. my staff used to make a joke, don't waste your time going to college campuses, get to nursing homes, because younger people historically have been terrible about turning out to vote, especially in the midterms. so will this forgiveness of college debt actually have the impact they're hoping for? will younger voters all of a sudden, oh, my gosh, now i've got to really focus on these elections and getting out to vote? it will be interesting to see. i think dobbs decision is going

to do more to get people out to vote, the roe v. wade being dismantled and extreme laws being proposed against women, i think that's going to be much more of a motivator, unfortunately, than what the president just did around college debt. >> we will see this fall. associate professor of political science at fordham university, christina greer, and white house editor for politico, sam stein, on way too early this week, waking up in the darkness of night to bring us the news, thank you so much. coming up, russian president vladimir putin making a push to reinforce ranks as thousands are killed and wounded on the battlefield in ukraine. we'll talk to a retired four star admiral next on "morning joe." g joe. juicy rotisserie-style chicken. you should've been #1. this isn't about the sandwich, is it chuck?

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europe's largest nuclear power plant was disconnected from ukraine's power grid yesterday, after shelling

sparked fires near the facility. ukraine's national energy company says emergency backup systems helped to sustain crucial operations and supply was restored later in the day. but the incident heightened fears of a potential nuclear disaster. joining us now live from central ukraine, nbc news foreign correspondent, meagan fitzgerald. this has been a concern, as you know, for several months, since this war began and since russian troops moved in and around the nuclear power plant. >> reporter: absolutely, willie. as you mentioned, it's the increased shelling that's happening around this highly sensitive situation, around a nuclear plant, one of europe's largest. in this incidence, a fire broke out which knocked the power off its power grid, forcing it to operate temporarily running on backup generators. those backup generators take diesel. the russians, as you know, occupy this plant and there's no way of knowing how much diesel the russians have left should

this incident happen again. meanwhile, this knocked off power to thousands of people in the area. they didn't have sewer services, water or electricity, so it highlights a potential humanitarian crisis. we know the international atomic energy agency says that it could just be a matter of days before a crew of experts are able to go inside that facility, but here is the issue there. they want them to go in through the ukrainian side and that's something that russia has not yet agreed to. meanwhile, we know that vladimir putin is trying to increase his military by 10%, to the tune of nearly 140,000 new troops. we've been speaking with military experts who say this certainly suggests that he is gearing up for a long war, willie. >> nbc's meagan fitzgerald from central ukraine this morning, thank you so much. joining us now, former nato supreme allied commander james,

the russians playing with fire with the nuclear power plant, the largest in the continent of europe. how close could we come to disaster? >> well, i spent two years, willie, in command of enterprise carrier strike group, uss enterprise, the nuclear power aircraft carrier and we had eight reactors. there wasn't a morning that i didn't wake up and think, how safe are those reactors, how is the coolant, are we sure we have backup systems. because if you lose electricity, as the reporter just told us, you lose the ability to cool the core of the reactors. this, of course, is what happened in chernobyl, in fukushima, three mile island, and it leads to a breach which could launch a great deal of radiation in the world. and, by the way, with shelling going on and military activities, the whole process is

well beyond the design specifications to keep it safe. so the answer to the question, how dangerous is this, it is massively dangerous. this requires full international attention in getting experts into the plant and getting it out of the combat situation. very dangerous. >> meanwhile, admiral, vladimir putin issued an order yesterday to recruit more than 100,000 new troops into the russian military, wants to bring his overall number up over 1 million troops, reflecting, perhaps, the long war that he didn't expect to have here. >> i think, willie, it also reflects the combat losses he's experiencing. every intelligence agency now says that russia was killed in action or wounded and knocked out of action somewhere north of 70,000 troops. it's probably closer to 100,000. so if you're trying to run the war from moscow, you know you've

got to replenish those troop levels. here is the bad news for vladimir putin, doesn't look like people are exactly signing up in droves in russia. they are, by the way, opening recruitment to people, men, from 18 to 60 years old, willie. think about that for a minute. i'm in my 60s, i don't think the navy is looking to get me back on active duty any time soon, and it shows you how far a lift this is going to be for the russians. so he's got some real challenges with an unpopular war and a body of people in russia who are gradually waking up to how disastrous this is turning out for their nation. >> i think the navy would take the admiral back, don't you? >> i think we're both happy that he's on active duty this morning because we need him. admiral, the increase, the

potential increase in troop allotments from russia into ukraine, the cutting off of energy sources from russia to the nato countries, i'm wondering, do you think putin's strategy is now that he's placing a bet that warm homes and hot water among the nato nations will turn out to be a more important factor in his war against ukraine than will actually their feeling of freeing and making sure liberation continues and democracy continues in ukraine? >> mike, i think your analysis is correct. putin is trying to turn this into a long game that will certainly drag into the winter. but i'll give you two points to hold in mind why i think that will not work. number one is the europeans themselves. i wouldn't bet against them in this scenario. it's not as though they're going to have granny freezing in the a

tick. they're going to lower the thermostat in order to preserve some energy, yes, but they're not looking at apocalyptic events here. i think they'll pull together. and then, number two, if you really look at total energy in europe, gas is about 20% of that. putin controls 10% of that. he controls 10% of total european energy. so he doesn't have a complete chokehold here, and it's going to hurt him as well. it's hard to rewire grass and send it somewhere else. so i think putin is making a bad bet here, but, yes, mike, his bet is that the europeans are going to crack. personally, i wouldn't bet against the europeans. >> admiral, i think the west has, to some extent, unfortunately, moved on a little

bit from what's going on in ukraine. exactly how is ukraine doing? give us an assessment, if you were in charge of the military in ukraine and you had working knowledge, which you do, of the assets of russia and what losses they've suffered, where are we? are we halftime? are we in the third quarter? what is the score? i think it is really important that we keep reminding the west that the investments they've made have worked and that there is really still some really good news on the ukrainian front in terms of the war over democracies. >> senator, i agree. and we need to rewind the clock six months and think about where we stood as this invasion started. many analysts believed that putin was going to run the

table, take over kyiv, probably capture and kill zelenskyy, and consolidate control of the country. he has failed miserably in that. and now he is back to holding a little bit more than he started with, which is about 20% of the country. so he is not in any sense winning. he's also, as i just mentioned, 80,000 killed and wounded, his economy is slowly grinding down under sanctions, and above all, to your point, we, the west, are putting the right weapons in the hands of the ukrainians so they can reach behind russian lines, go after logistics, go after the well heads that supply fuel going forward, go after the black sea fleet, ensure that grain comes out. all those things are happening. and zelenskyy continues to be a highly inspirational leader, while putin increasingly plays the part of a war criminal.

when i put all of that together, if i were playing the game of battleship here as an admiral, i would much rather be on the side of the board that the ukrainians are than the russians. they still have chances, the russians, they still have parts to play, dirty tricks like this nuclear power play. but overall, history here is against vladimir putin. >> former supreme allied commander, james stavridis, the once and perhaps future admiral. pride's role in the midterm elections, he is ready to hit the campaign trail. he's out there already, in fact. but many democrats are keeping their own party's leader at arm's length. new reporting just ahead on "morning joe."

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problems. according to fox business, one of the platform's vendors claims the company is refusing to pay out more than $1 million in contractually obligated payments. the company right forge helped to set up the app's infrastructure and says it has not received any monthly payments since march. the app, which launched just six months ago, bills itself as an alternative to twitter, which suspended trump's account after the capital attack. right forge, truth social and a spokesman for trump all did not comment on that claim. so, claire, this is a report from fox business. the number actually is $1.6 million this company says trump's truth social owes them. i would point out that trump's pac has raised more than $100 million since he left office. it's not like he doesn't have some cash laying around. >> shocked. i'll just say shocked, willie. donald trump not paying bills? say it's not so.

who does business with this guy? it's one of the reasons he's having difficulty getting a lawyer. lawyers don't want to go to work for him because he is famous for not paying bills. this idea that he takes care of working people, there's never been anybody who worked for him who got paid the way they were supposed to get paid under normal business practices. so this doesn't surprise me. and there's a lot of controversy about how this whole enterprise was funded, too. it was one of those spac things, which means most people don't understand, which means it's something we should be weary of. i don't think this is the last story we're going to hear about financial problems surrounding the, quote, unquote, truth. >> mike, as you and i have said before, as claire points out here, if you want to know whether trump pays his bills, ask any electrician in atlantic city over the last four years or

so. >> willie, we're sitting here, you and i are sitting here in the city of new york, where donald trump has been doing business of one kind or another for over 40 years. and those years are littered, littered with claimants trying to get money from him for plumbing work, electricity work, any kind of work. he does not pay his bills. he is a legitimate deadbeat, that's fact and it's history, and now we have this. and he's got this, you know, fund that he raises money for from poor people who watch him on tv and, oh, he's in trouble, look what they did, they invaded his home in mar-a-lago, i'm going to send him $2 or $5, and he's got millions in a specific political fund, and like with everything, like with the documents that he is alleged to have been storing at mar-a-lago, he views that money as his money. he's not going to give it out to anybody, he's not going to pay his bills. i'm with claire, i'm shocked,

shocked, shocked. >> he takes their money and then sends them to the capital to get arrested while he sits at mar-a-lago. by the way, this company, right forge, has not ruled out the possibility, according to fox by, of taking this matter to court. again, $1.6 million is the number that truth social is said to owe them. coming up, california is poised to ban the sale of new cars that run on gasoline. what that means for the environment and the economy straight ahead on "morning joe."

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willis wants to hear from him. let's get the latest from nbc news correspondent blayne alexander. she was at the courthouse yesterday during the hearing. blayne, good morning. what did we learn yesterday? >> reporter: willie, good morning. this really kind of was the latest step in what has been a very kind of explosive relationship between the governor here in georgia and the fulton county district attorney that is now exploded into public light. through a number of court filings. so the hearing was about two hours yesterday and attorneys for georgia's republican governor brian kemp were arguing he shouldn't have to come and testify and they're hanging that on three things. sovereign immunity and two, executive privilege and attorney/client privilege and the third part is there could be political implications if he were to go in and testify and they're looking ahead to the november election.

they're saying this is one of the most closely watched gubernatorial races in the country and because of this going around the subpoena and him being asked to come in, it is impossible that this doesn't in some way seep into the political landscape and taint his chances for re-election in november. here is what his attorney had to say yesterday in court. >> now we're in the middle of an election cycle for the most closely followed gubernatorial race in the country. this may be one or two others that are close, but this is certainly up there. and this is happeningco incidentally or other wise as this high-profile investigation and governor kemp role are reaching a crescendo. we believe this shouldn't be happening on the eve of an election. >> reporter: so, essentially they're saying listen even if the judge guide decides not to

quash the subpoena, let him delay his testimony until november or 2023. but prosecutors say that is not going to happen. his testimony is to crucial they don't want to delay this each further. and then they put it back on kemp team and said, if you come in and if you would testify when you were initially supposed to, there wouldn't be all of this media attention around this and you could have come in and there wouldn't be the political implications around it. so certainly a lot of back and forth and we're expecting to see which way this is decided. >> and governor kemp is in a tight race against stacey abrams and doesn't want to remind republican supporters that he stood up to trump in 2020. and mark meadow as and sidney powell, the fulton county is compelling testimony from the two stating think we are in communication with former president trump and his campaign and others involved in the

multi-state coordinated efforts to influence the election results in georgia. a fulton county superior court directed meadows and powell to appear before the special purpose grand jury next month. nbc news has reached out to powell and attorney for meadows for comment. the two are among the highest profile members of trump's circle to be summoned to testify in the probe. joining other top figures like rudy giuliani, and republican senator lindsey graham of south carolina. so blayne, a lot of members of trump's inner circle swept up in this investigation. why does it go from here? >> reporter: you know, when i had a conversation with the fulton county district attorney about this investigation earlier this summer, she made it clear she's leaving no stone unturned. she's going to have a robust investigation and she wants to hear from any person who had any sort of knowledge of the president's mindset, of the former president -- the former president's mindset, or his actions when it comes to efforts

to over turn the election here in georgia and elsewhere. so she's making that very clear with calling these people in. in those filings. she said that essentially hearing from sidney powell and mark meadows could possibly uncover other people that she would want to hear from in the future as well. so it is very clear this isn't the end of the folks that she wanted to call in that we would likely see more high-profile individuals. when i asked her, she said she's not ruling out members of trump's family, other former white house officials and certainly not ruling out calling the president himself to come down here to georgia to testify as well, willie. >> nbc's blayne alexander all over this story in georgia for us. thanks so much. great to see you. coming up, the fbi search donald trump's home on august 8th. today, we'll get a clearer idea of why when the justice department reveals new information used to justify that search warrant. that story is next on "morning joe."

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