michael is back. and he's more dangerous. maybe the only way he can die... is if i die too. [ screaming ]

good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. a new poll shows republican support surging. independent women are abandoning the democrats in droves, turning a 14-point advantage for the party into an 18-point deficit in just four weeks. does it show that the democrats's multimillion dollar decision to focus on abortion instead of the economy might have been a pweus take? the former trump aide who said he was willing to go to jail to support donald trump may actually get his wish. the justice department recommending the maximum sentence for defying the january 6th subpoena. is that a warning to donald trump who is about to get a subpoena any day now.

take a look at this video out of ukraine. police officers firing into the eras the capital comes under attack. they're not firing at soldiers. they're firing at kamikaze drones, trying to pick them off before she slam into targets and explode. a live report in just a minute. we start with the midterms and poll numbers that almost have to be seen to be believed. they show democrats losing huge chunks on republicans right now at the same time the economy is peaking. take a look. republicans opening up a 10-point lead among independents after being tied just a month ago. democrats, 13-point advantage among women in september. that's gone. and among female independents, the biggest swing of all. democrats leading among that group by 14 points in september. now down by 18. as we said, a 32-point swing in

just four weeks. while we can't attribute all that to the issues, it comes as republicans have spent the bulk of their dollars, $150 million, on economic themes. democrats have largely avoided that. something criticized as political malpractice. instead, democrats have put $100 million to ads on abortion rights. in georgia and ohio, the economy is of critical importance. and candidates in both of those senate seats are essentially in a dead heat. we want to bring in nbc chief white house correspondent and co-anchor of "weekend today" kirsten walker. and basel is with the new york state democratic party. kristen, i want to start in georgia. you just sat down with republican candidate herschel walker, trying to clear up some of the questions surrounding his

candidacy. was he forthcoming with you? >> reporter: well, i think he feels emboldened because he and his campaign feel they had a stronger than expected showing this that debate with rafael warnock on friday. they lowered expectations. they feel he surpassed the expectations. look, this was a wide-ranging hourlong interview. i talked to him from the economy, his plan, his focus. he says it is to tout energy independence. i spoke to him about former president trump and former president obama. and i did press him on the allegations that an ex-girlfriend urged and paid for her to have an abortion in 2009. we were able to speak with that ex-girlfriend. we obtained what she said is the paperwork, copies of a $700 check. copies from a receipt from the

women's clinic where she alleges she got this procedure. and i did confront him with the paperwork. take a look. >> this is still a lie because she's the mother of my child. so you are going to see somebody given a check. it's a lie >> do you know what that $700 is for? >> i have no idea what that could be for. >> is that your signature? >> it could be. it doesn't matter when it's my signature north. >> reporter: when pressed, walker said definitively for the first time, the check is his. >> yes. that's my check. >> why should voters believe you? >> voters should believe me because i have been transparent about everything i have ever done. >> this is obviously an issue that loomed over this race. again, chris, i go back to where you started the conversation, the economy. they are trying to focus on that issue, as well as the issue of crime. that's another big one for him. we pressed him on all of this. i asked if there was any common

ground to be found with democrats and can he name one thing that president biden has done. he jokingly said the fact that he eats ice cream. when i continued to press him, he said he ran on being a unity candidate but criticized him for not being able to achieve that. it underscores how divisive this is. again, this is a tight race. and even small things around the edges could impact voters in these final days. >> basel, when you look at the poll that shows independent women moving away from democrats in the past month, would you say it's a mistake for tkrots who focused so much on abortion, not the economy? what do you think is going on here? >> well, i don't think it was a mistake for democrats to focus on reproductive rights. that in and of itself was largely motivating issue. but democrats are smart and can

pivot. i think bernie sanders was right. they did not talk about it enough. when you see lee zeldin in new york, he took abortion rights and started focusing on crime. there was a shooting in front of his house. he's leaning into this issue that is resonating with a lot of voters. democrats haven't been able to talk about the reduction in prescription drug costs or an increase in social security. all those things that put money back into people's pockets which would have been able to challenge republicans on these areas that they're building. >> but does it really, basel? i'm looking at statistics that say, for example, when it comes to the grocery store, 70% of the purchases in multiperson

households are made by women. women are more likely to hold jobs that pay less. i'm not in any way disregarding what joe biden has said about the accomplishments they have made. when you go to the grocery store and you wonder whether or not you can afford a gallon of milk, it's a different equation. and, quickly, if they need to turn, how quickly can they turn? they are in a different world than when you and i started out. >> no, it's an important point. this is where the democrats need to pivot and pivot hard. i think there is time to do that. there is going to be a problem for us because we haven't been talking about it all along. i don't think it's malpractice that we didn't start talking about that in the spring and summer. reproductive rights was the conversation of that day. but we needed to be talking about other things

>> let me go to georgia. blayne alexander is in marietta. people may not have time to pivot because people are already voting. they are starting to vote. early day first voting in georgia. we know from past elections the bulk of georgians cast votes ahead of time. what do you say in the strategy and pressure that it all does start today. >> you're absolutely right. people are taking full advantage of early voting. there was a line here before the sun came up, before the doors opened up. several people were waiting to get inside and cast ballots. what that means in terms of strategy is essentially we are looking at election season not just election day when it comes to candidates rallying people to get out to the polls. when i have gone to stacey abrams' events, you are hearing this get out the vote effort that has been a continuous throughout her campaign, urging

people to go to their polls, cast their absentee ballots, something they have been able to do for several days now. what's interesting, you are hearing the same thing from republicans. when i went to a governor kemp rally, he admitted democrats had outworked republicans on their ground game the past few cycles. he said quite simply, we can't let that happen again. he is urging people to go out and vote early. it is notable to point out, though, on this first day of early voting, we are also seeing the first head-to-head debate between the two gubernatorial candidates. it's certainly not unnoticeable that on the day voters are going to head to the polls, they will also be hearing from these candidates, reminding them of the issues from democrats, from stacey abrams, when i have spoken to her, she made it clear abortion will be the central focus of her plat were to. she will bring that forth. governor kemp will be reminding

people of his record, each trying to pick up voters they didn't get the last time around in 2018. the debate tonight will be a chance to do that. chris. >> i want to go to jesse in ohio where the race is super tight. this is a state where unemployment, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average. the median income is below the national average, jesse. and they have another big debate tonight. what are we expecting? >> reporter: yeah. more of what we have been hearing about just now, chris, the economy. j.d. vance specifically was talking about groceries at the debate last week he was spaoeing about it on cable news, people being able to afford food at the grocery store. on the debate stage last night, we saw a moment where tim ryan, the congressman, tried to tie

j.d. vance to right wing extremist. and members of congress are seen as right. people said let's talk about what people care about, which is buying food at the grocery store. ryan, for what it's worth, has defended some positions. ryan defended his vote on that. he's not backing away from what democrats are doing on legislation. he is trying to peel away from republican voters. but that is what ryan is banking on. fatigue from moderate republican voters. vance will tell you that's all a facade and ryan is a hard left democrat, someone who is always voting with democratic leadership in this state and across the country.

>> what time does the debate start? >> reporter: 7:00 p.m. it will coincide interestingly with something else. >> yeah. they will be up against the guardians. good luck getting clevelanders to watch that debate. let me wrap this up, kristen, by asking about former president obama. biden has been out there talking about the economy, what he believes his administration democrats have accomplished. obama remains most popular democrat. he's going to georgia, michigan, wisconsin. but when i look at releases announcing them, they often focus on abortion, voting rights, defending democracy. have democrats settled on a closing message? do we know what we will hear from barack obama on the trail? >> chris, i would not be surprised if we heard the former president, as you rightfully note, is very popular among democrats. yes, talk about the issue of abortion. he will be out there defending the biden economy. you will hear him make the case for why he will argue things are moving in the right direction.

remember when former president obama was running for re-election and former president clinton was dubbed the explainer in chief to talk about obamacare, you can expect former president obama to take on a similar role, to make the case in a detailed way to voters why president biden think things are moving in the right direction. think about the obama coalition, chris. really targets the key groups you were talking about, women, independents, voters of color >> kristen, thank you. appreciate you guys. meantime, in just the last hour, jurors at the seditious conspiracy trial of oath keepers have heard disturbing new evidence about the group's plots to stash guns in a hotel just across the potomac river from d.c. on january 6th. also threats to declare guerrilla war. an fbi agent returned to the stand. she has been walking jurors

through the violent rhetoric shared by the defendants in the leadup to the capitol attack, including messages that suggesting, quote, mowing down masses. ryan riley has been covering the trial from the start. ryan, what's the latest? >> reporter: sure, so we have learned a lot about stewart rhodes's personal life and the expenses he was making for the oath keepers. he was buying guns in the leadup to january 6th and buying guns afterwards. we heard some new information about his personal life. kelly sorelle, general counsel for oath keepers after the january 6th attack was in a sexual relationship with stewart rhodes. they revealed some of those text messages during the trial. that had been an issue because

defense attorneys said they were protected by attorney/client privilege. there is nothing related to legal changes in what they were seeing in court this morning. >> ryan riley, always good to see you. thank you so much. i know you will update us if we get breaking news out of that trial stkphraofplt prosecutors sending a big message to big names defying is congressional subpoenas from the january 6th committee. with jail time on the table, is donald trump getting the message? plus, deadly kamikaze drones in kyiv. the race to save survivors in kyiv. and the only known survivor of a suspected serial killer shares her terrifying encounter ahead. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account

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new today, prosecutors are sending a clear message to anyone who wants to defy a congressional subpoena do so at your own peril. doj is recommending that trump adviser steve bannon get six months in jail. following his conviction for refusing to testify before the january 6th committee. this is from the sentencing memo. quote, to this day, bannon continues to unlawfully withhold documents and testimony that stand to help the committee's authorized investigation to get to the bottom of what led to the january 6th and ascertain what steps must be taken to ensure that it never happens again. that cannot be tolerated. there may be a message in that for donald trump as well, who is about to get a subpoena from the committee but who has yet to commit to testifying. and if he defies that subpoena, will the house demand prosecution as they did with bannon? >> we're going to treat him just as we would any other citizen that refuses to testify.

go to court and ask that that individual be held in contempt in order to testify. >> with previous subpoenas, what you have seen the committee do is be very deliberate and take the response to subpoenas on a case-by-case basis. >> that's a bridge we cross if we have to get there. >> let's bring in ali vitale, barbara mcquaid, and peter baker, chief white house correspondent for the "new york times". ali, i want to get to this new news you brought to us out of the january 6th committee. there had been all of this tuck about an interim report. that would require a vote of the committee. so it could be complicated. this is what caught my eye from your new reporting. there is a real possibility we could see some new information. what might that look like? >> yeah. that's exactly right, chris. this is a committee that has shown so much publicly in its

hearing but still has things on the cutting room floor to help americans understand what happened january 6th and the roles that were played by the former president, as well as other people in his orbit. and so it's entirely possible that while we won't see an official interim report for the reasons you laid out and frankly where we are on the calendar before election day, it is entirely possible that the committee could release an unofficial interim report that looks like new video to tweet out. or maybe it looks like a staff report. that is something our sources have told us is a real possibility in the coming weeks. while we won't necessarily see the committee in formal fashion, we could hear from them again with new information. he said there is the possibility that they release something before election day. whether you call it an interim report or something else. this is where what's in a name actually really matters. one is formal and requires

procedural thing but the other gives public information. >> let's talk, barbara mcquaid, about the things the committee didn't get, including testimony from steve bannon. his sentencing is scheduled for friday. how strong is the argument the doj is making that he should get six months. is that likely, or are they aiming high? >> i think if anything, chris, they are aiming a little low here. they are showing a measured response. the sentencing guidelines is a range of 0 to 6 months. they are asking for the top of the raining of 6 months. under the statute they could see as much as two years. you can doublestack the two counts for which he was convicted, each with a standard one year. they cite comparable cases, the need for unwarranted disparities. and they even cite some cases

where defendants were sentenced to a year in prison. they across the street steve bannon had bad faith and boasted about his refusal to do so. six months seems likely. maybe a little modest in terms of the request by doj. >> it's worth reminding people how rare this is. bannon is the first person to be convicted of contempt of congress since 1974. we are waiting for his lawyers to submit their sentencing recommendation. what has been his argument for ignoring congress about besides he has no respect for anybody on the committee? >> this is a political thing. he is happy to be a martyr, a hero, in effect, with the maga crowd, somebody who is taking it for the former president. remember, he of course had been at one point ex communicated from the former president's circle and worked his way back

in by showing loyalty. that's what he is doing at this point. you listen to what he said publicly since the subpoena was first issued. he made this a political, you know, selling point. there is no legal argument of any consequence. the judge made that clear even as they got to trial. barb certainly knows that better than i do. he is going to milk it for what it's worth. six months in prison may be worth it to keep his brand as a renegade in favor of the trump movement, you know, very prominent. >> do your sources tell you he want to appear or he wants to appear to want to appear before not appearing. >> he would love to appear, give his side of the story, engage with the committee and never actually do it. he did that with mueller

investigation, first impeachment. each time he talked about how he wanted to get out and do it. effects either talked out of it by lawyers if you want to believe that version, or he thought it was a bad idea. you might find him contradicting himself in the space of his own testimony. we interviewed him for our book "the divider." in a matter of a few hours, he told us all kinds of things not true f. you're a lawyer, you don't want him to go up there to take the oath and expose himself to the possible charge of perjury. >> how do you way that against you get a legitimate subpoena from the congress of the united states? >> he always can invoke the

fifth amendment rights. trump himself has disparaged people who invoked the fifth and said only criminals do that. he invoked the fifth many times when he appeared before letitia james. having gone down that road, he is willing to continue. it seems more likely to me he will use whatever tactics he can to stall, at least run out the clock until after the midterm elections and after the new congress is seated in january in hopes they will disband. he doesn't want to be under the glaring lights. >> peter, trump was not without controversy just this weekend facing backlash after he posted the attack of american jews on his social media site. no president has done more for israel than i have. our wonderful evangelicals are

far more appreciative of this than the jews. they have to get their act together and appreciate what they have in israel before it's too late. i mean, his argument in the past has been that his son-in-law, daughter and grandchildren are jewish. you can put it in the context of everything he says and does could potentially have an impact on the midterms. >> well, it speaks for himself. use people need to be grateful to him in large categories defined by religion, ethnicity or race. that's how he always approached it. he was mad that the criminal justice reform bill that jared kushner talked him into supporting during his presidency

didn't get him more appreciation from african americans. he said it bluntly repeatedly. he has time and time again said to various groups in america that they needed to view him and give him appreciation. that's how he views all of these things. policy issues aren't about policy. it is what it means for him and what it means to him. does that affect the midterms? i don't know. the more he is out there, more democrats are happy. they would rather it be a choice than a referendum. it is a sale republicans think they can make, at least to many constituents. the more trump were to, you know, pull back on the public stage, that would be better seen from republicans. and former president trump doesn't seem to see it that way. >> ali, barbara, peter baker whose new book is "the divider"

along with susan glasser, appreciate you being with us today. deadly drones in ukraine's capital. can these be stopped? and what it means on continuing to push back russian forces. we are live in kyiv next. we are live in kyiv next that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account in real time and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. it's the subway series menu! 12 irresistible subs... like #11 subway club. piled with turkey, ham and roast beef. this sub isn't slowing down any time soon. i'll give it a run for its money. my money's on the sub. it's subway's biggest refresh yet. ♪ ♪ this is the moment. for a treatment for moderate-to-severe eczema. cibinqo — fda approved. 100% steroid free. not an injection, cibinqo is a once-daily pill

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the latest strike by russian forces in ukraine hit kyiv just hours ago leaving a trail of blood and destruction as a kamikaze drone slammed into an apartment building. the russians are using iranian-made drones strapped with explosive. in this attack, 28 attacked, 23 shot down. five hit their mark, sloweding in and around that building. police officers forced to try to shoot down the drones by firing into the sky. it left three dead, four hurt, 14 had to be rescued from the rubble. i want to bring in cal perry and brigadier general peter swack. >> reporter: it is a frightening night in the capital. in the last five minutes, we have witnessed anti-aircraft striking a drone out of the sky.

there is now a fresh wave under way. this is the third wave of drones that have been fired at kyiv so far today. as you said, 28 in total in the morning. 23 of them shot down. five hit their target. it is important to know these are crude weapons. these are basically rockets that have a crude engine on the back of them. you can hear them coming into the city. it's a very distinct sound. they are very difficult to stop with air defenses because of course they have civilian components on them. what russians are aiming for are critical infrastructure electricity. what they are hitting are civilian areas that. collapsed the apartment building, killed four, wounding another four. at least 19 people were rescued from the rubble. again, in just the past five or ten minutes, we witnessed another drone shot out of the sky. we'll wait and find out what rescue has to say about the recent attacks. >> what do you make of the

strategy the russians have decided to use here? >> chris, first of all, it shows i believe the bankruptcy of their overall campaign to dominate to take ukraine. their forces have been repulsed, embarrassed and defeated in the field. while the fighting is tightening up again, they can't beat ukrainian military in the field. they use the -- i think the fact of the bridge being blown up over a week ago, there's a lot of flurry going on. yes, they want to get the infrastructure, and get to all the grids. this is an intimidation campaign. i don't think it's playing out. it is like the nazi blitz -- the london blitz in 1940.

this will toughen ukrainian resolve. and most of all the world more and more sees just how vicious and mean spirited this invasion is. but it shows the bankruptcy of the overall russian strategy. with foreign rockets and missiles almost indiscriminately and killing a lot of civilians. no, it's failing for the russians. >> it is killing people, however. what they do to protect against it is firing into the sky before the drones reach their target. an effective way to deal with it. what does ukraine do? >> no, it's not enough. a lot of nations, including our own, are doing all we can to get more upgraded air defense systems. what is notable, your reporter did bring out and we have been reading is a lot of these iranian and other provided

drones have been shot out of the sky. this is the grisly, nasty part of this war that's going on there. and we have to continue to amp up the support, the systems and the international condemnation. so the pressure hits the russians domestically. these are war crimes. >> meantime, china's leader is on the cusp of locking down another five years. he said china reference the option of taking all measures necessary. what does that talk me for planning in the region by both the u.s. and its allies? >> it is definitely a strategic messaging. it is also something, if we follow his reading, something that he believes in. i think his legacy is in part the reunification.

you know, what we call self-governing taiwan. bottom line is taiwan is a vibrant, young democracy that wants no part of that. if there is anything xi jinping can see, what ukraine has done is pulled together an invasion of taiwan, independent free-minded taiwan is not going to be tolerated. now, whatever the response would be is the key question. bottom lean, china has been growing its military, growing its nuclear arsenal. and its rhetoric continues to grow. just today, several european union foreign ministers called for sanctions against iran for the transfer of those drones to russia. the news comes amid ongoing

anti-government protests in iran and after its most notorious political prison exploded in flames this weekend with the death toll rising. officials say eight inmates were killed. that is a new number today. hundreds of prisoners are held there, including two american citizens. a state news agency said the fire was started saturday by inmates burning their uniforms at a warehouse and there were fights between prisoners and staff. nbc has not been able to confirm that report. it's not just carrie lake. hundreds of republican candidates are refusing to say they would accept next month's election results. the potential impact on key races before and after election day. that's next. re and after electi day. that's next. that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account in real time and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company.

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that nearly 300 of the top republican candidates in the country have said they think the 2020 election was rigged. that's more than half nationwide. and now many of them are saying next month's midterms might be rigged too. but only if they lose. here's arizona republican nominee carrie lake yesterday. >> will you accept the results of your election in november? >> i'm going to win the election, and i will accept that result. >> if you lose, will you accept that? >> i'm going to win the election, and i will accept that result. >> i want to bring in jonathan lemire for politico and host of msnbc's "way too early". she is one of the most high profile candidates but far from the only one, hundreds of them, including running for secretary of state, have said 2020 was illegitimate. many won't say they will accept the results of this election. what are you hearing from

democrats now about what election night could be like in november, not to even mention 2024? >> reporter: yeah. the big lie is on the ballot, chris. this is -- i wrote a book with that same name as its title. it details how trump's false claims of election fraud didn't just end with the violence on january 6th but shaped the republican party today. that's what we are seeing now with all of these candidates. carrie lake the most visible. doug mastriano in pennsylvania. a number of state secretaries of state candidates, including arizona who said not only if they would, if elected, do what they could to undo the 2020 election. of course let's be clear that can't happen. but they have made no guarantees that they will, a, concede this fall if they were to lose or, b, if elected, would do the same in 2024.

they would also not commit to certifying the appropriate winner there if their candidate did not emerge victorious. this is such a test of our democracy. and they're using this as one of their many messages to try to get voters to the polls this november. polls suggest, yes, threats to democracy, defending democracies ranks high but well behind things likes abortion rights and economic issues. >> on election night, it's not unusual for there to be a recount or someone to contest what happened at a particular voting precinct. they have had problems with machines or whatever. are we potentially looking at widespread questions being raised interest maybe dozens, even more races? >> reporter: yeah. strategists in both parties suggested to me what we saw in 2020 when the results actually couldn't be called for several days, that might be the new normal. it's in part because more states are using mail-in balloting,

although less than the height of the pandemic in 2020. we have seen what his lie as given birth to is this belief among many republicans they feel if they were to lose, something must have been off with the election. it must be rigged or fraudulent. theres no evidence of that. candidates can challenge the results. sometimes they are appropriate to bring. no one said donald trump didn't have reasons to file a lawsuit. the issue is once the legal challenges are heard, you have to accept the result. that's what our democracy is based upon, the peaceful transfer of power. the loser conceding to the winner. this is in doubt for the first time in our history. trump didn't do it. a lot this fall are pledging they will do the same. >> jonathan, always good to see you, my friend. again, just to remind folks, "the big lie."

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he was out hunting. that's how stockton police chief stan mcfadden described the man who was believed to be the behind six homicides, wesley brownlee was arrested saturday after a series of tips tracked him down. one of the victims was shot at least nine times but survived. >> no words exchanged. didn't say anything. didn't come any closer. started shooting, i just saw flashes. i mean and then knowing that there's the moving train, or like some ridiculous high fence that i couldn't attempt to climb with no slats and behind me an open field and i ran toward him knowing i would have to get closer to the street if i wanted to survive. >> laura barrett in stockton, so

much news, and the headlines blairing in the newspaper for days and ends in a year-long search. first of all, when will he be back in court and how exactly were police able to finally get him? >> reporter: well, police are thanking the community, they received hundreds of tips, which allowed them to locate the suspect early saturday morning, and the language they used describing the arrest was so chilling and reflects what neighbors were feeling here throughout the last year. they said that he was on a mission to kill, just moments before they caught him, and said he had a pattern of preying, starting in the car and then stalking his victims on foot. and then understandably, neighbors are feeling this collective sigh of relief, a weight off their shoulders, and people i spoke to yesterday saying they feel they can go back to normal and some say they have stopped going out after dark and canceled plans and wouldn't go out alone and something that has been plaguing the community for well over a year. we know the suspect has a

criminal background, a criminal history of drug-related charges and duis, held without bail here in the county jail on suspicion of at least one murder offense and assorted weapons offenses. the d.a. says there is no official determination on charges yet. because they're still waiting for ballistic evidence to come back to determine whether or not the gun that they found on the suspect was connected to all of the attacks. again, these are attacks that happened just blocks apart, in some cases, so really closely together, and officials say there's no motive to be determined yet, either, or any indication these were targeted, victims that have to wait, latino men, some of them homeless and there are a lot of questions left to be answered and we're hoping to see more as the d.a. brings official charges at the suspect's arraignment tomorrow afternoon. >> thank you very much. that will do it for us this hour. make sure to tune in to "chris

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we are at the countdown stage of the election cycle. it is october 17th, 22 dams from november 8th, election day. 22 days left for each candidate to find