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good to be with you. i'm chris jansing in for katy tur. president biden is making a big promise on abortion rights, a promise that he's betting will help lift democratic candidates who are on the midterm ballots. >> that's why these ecritical to elect more democrats to the united states senate and keep control of the house of representatives. folks, if we do that, here is the promise i make to you and to the american people, the first bill i send to congress will be could codify roe v. wade. and when congress passes it, i'll sign it in january.

>> vote democratic and then i will send a message to codify roe but some folks are asking why wait until the next congress when the party has control now. i'm going to talk to the director late they are hour on the timing of the president's speech and whether the issue can get democrats over the finish line. tim ryan and j.d. vance last night in a critical ohio senate race as well as in their last debate. the pair went toe to toe. tempers flared when vance was asked if he would vote for lindsey graham's national abortion ban. >> i think it's reasonable to say you cannot abort a baby especially for elective reasons after 15 weeks.

it looks different three weeks versus 39 weeks of pregnancy. >> it's tragic and j.d. and his extreme crew want to have a national abortion ban. he called rape inconvenient. this is not a guy who is ready to protect the rights of women. >> i want to show you brand-new polling numbers out of ohio putting vance ahead by two points. a lead that's within the margin of error here. a seat they need to hold on to. so what are the issues driving ohio voters to the polls? unsurprisingly the economy is at the top but also up there is abortion and nearly half of voters say it is how they cast their ballot. we're going to get more into those numbers and what they mean going forward in just a moment. we'll go live to florida where marco rubio and his challenger, val demings, will face off

tonight for their first and only debate. the stakes couldn't be higher because early voting across the state is in full swing. more than 600,000 floridians have already cast their ballots. joining me now from capitol hill, from youngstown jesse kirsch and nbc's shaq brewster. also susan page, "usa today" washington bureau chief. why is the president choosing to push this focus on codifying roe in the next term of congress when, frankly, democrats have control now? >> reporter: it seems like it's an acknowledgement of the political reality because this is a body that is democratic controlled but because of the margins especially in the senate they have tried and failed to codify abortion access on multiple occasions and for the president to come out and say this is the first item he would move in a new congress where democrats retain control and potentially expand their margins, that, to me, seems like the white house is just

recognizing the reality here while also trying to galvanize voters around the issues because, chris, you'll remember in the spring we saw the house pass the first version of the women's health protection act. that failed in the senate. in the senate the reality, too, not only do they lack the votes on the women's health protection act because joe manchin joined with all 50 republicans to block the passage of the bill but also they lack the votes to change the rules so that they could do it by a simple majority. it's why key proponents of abortion access like senator elizabeth warren have often said to me over the course of these last few months that while they will continue to push the federal government to do everything it can to protect women's access to this care, they are also really looking for two more senate seats. where they pick those up is anybody's guess. that's what they are pushing for so they have the ability to overrule the filibuster and move forward on protections in that

way because as things stand right now everything being static, there is no way for congress to do that and that's why it's a ballot box issue. >> jesse, we know abortion was a big talking point in ohio last night. it didn't dominate the debate. where did the candidates want to focus? what were they pressed on? >> reporter: chris, a lot comes down to the questions from the moderators. something that time and again we saw both candidates circling back to no matter what they were asked about was that word extremism. and that gets down to what i think is chiefly tim ryan's strategy here is to peel off republican voters who are more moderately leaning, sick of the trumpism of the republican party right now and if he can convince voters that j.d. vance is very far right and peel off those voters and if j.d. vance can convince people who might lean left or right but in the middle that tim ryan is allied with the far left, then maybe he can preserve that republican

co-vision. and so whether it was about policing, we heard about abortion, january, any number of issues, extremism came up again and again. we saw tim ryan try to be tied to nancy pelosi by j.d. vance and tim ryan tried to tie -- it's very windy out here and cold and the words are getting stuck -- tried to tie j.d. vance to marjorie taylor greene. these buzz words that are associated with wings of parties kept coming up again and again throughout the debate. one of the times it really stuck out was at the end of the debate, they were asked about the great replacement theory which is this racist theory talking about white people being replaced in this country. they were both asked about it and i want to play part of this exchange which illustrates how ugly these exchanges could get at times. >> this great replacement theory was the motivator for the shooting in buffalo where that shooter had all these great

replacement theory writings that j.d. vance agrees with. >> you are so desperate for political power that you will accuse me, the father of three beautiful bi-racial babies, of engaging in racism. we are sick of it. you can believe in a border without being a racist. >> i think i struck a nerve with this guy. >> you absolutely struck a nerve. >> reporter: vance was getting personal in invoking ryan's wife early on in the debate and, again, we talk about the looming large figures in national politics, nancy pelosi, trying to be grouped in with tim ryan and marjorie taylor greene trying to be grouped in with j.d. vance. they are trying to tie each other to those not running for office. that word extremism and who can push through with voters on that. >> in a state where they believe it's the moderate voter who will push through.

a biting ohio wind where shaq is. i did mention the debate between marco rubio and val demings, shaq. a race that's flown under the radar but what do we expect tonight? >> reporter: well, you are expecting many of those attacks floridians have been seeing on their television airwaves to make its way on the debate stage. both telling me their candidates will be representedy to fend off their attacks. for val demings she will have to fend off attacks she votes 100% with her party, that she increased inflation in this country and she's soft on crime and supports defunding the police. she will likely bring up fact she was in law enforcement for nearly 30 years including serving as the orlando police chief. marco rubopen attacks on the issue of abortion that he supports federal abortion bans and he's been missing a lot of votes while serving in the senate. he will likely point out that he has bipartisan accomplishments

like the paycheck protection program passed at the beginning of this pandemic. you're going to hear both candidates able to defend themselves from the attacks voters have been seeing here in florida. but this is going to be an evaluation for voters of their senator marco rubio who is looking to see his third term, to serve in his third term in the state. i got to talk to some folks about how they feel about their senator. listen to some of those conversations. >> he seems like he fights for florida. i don't like the way the democratic candidate follows a lot of the policies that have been passed in the last year, year and a half. >> he'll try to cast aspersions on her. i did notice the republicans seem to complain more with often no solutions. >> our taxes will be more in control. i feel gas will come down if they open the pipeline.

groceries will be more affordable. maybe they'll close the border. >> reporter: you know, one interesting thing there, chris, i asked all of them about how they felt about their current senator, marco rubio. you saw each of them connected to the broader picture, the broader climate, what they think will happen with republicans taking control of congress. many voters, at least in my conversations with them, connecting it to this greater national picture. >> it's so interesting. we've seen that in other states, people are very aware control of congress is at stake. thank you for that. susan, i want to go back to ohio. we showed abortion is important to many ohio voters. still far behind inflation and the economy. so i wonder what you make of biden's choice to give that speech today to focus a political event but also his time on that issue.

>> well, three weeks before this is an issue and a proposal that could help democrats with younger voters, get them out to vote. it could help with independent-minded voters especially independent women. these are crucial groups. they're not going to pass -- they couldn't pass this measure before the new congress takes over. not clear they will be able to pass it with the new congress. the president said only if they get more control of the senate. this is an effort to send a message to those voters who are very much moved by the issue of access to abortion and get them to the polls because, as we know, what matters is not only what people think, it matters who shows up on election day. >> let's talk about election day, people voting early, it's pretty shockingly close in a lot of people's estimation between vance and tim ryan. i haven't seen the ratings yet. people couldn't watch the ball

game and so maybe more of them had a chance to watch actually last night's debate. what do you make of the tightening of this race? >> the surprise is not vance got two points ahead in our goal. it's that ryan has kept this race so close. ohio is a republican state. donald trump carried it twice by eight points. the fact that a democratic member of congress has been able to keep the race competitive even to nationals who have not focused the kind of money and attention on ohio as in two other states they hope to pick up republican seats and if ryan loses narrowly, there will be second-guessing. the polling shows the republican governor mike dewine has a healthy lead offer nan whaley. you tweeted something so

interesting last night. can mike dewine's double digit lead pull fellow republican j.d. vance over the finish line in a very close senate race? and i wonder if it can, if some of the old feelings about voting down the line, party line, still hold. >> we do have some people who vote for one person in one race and a different party in fore race. we have seen people tend to vote one party up and down and i think if one of the senate candidates has a good lead, the race doesn't make the difference. it is possible the fact mike dewine is sailing to a second term could be helpful to j.d. vance. >> ali vitali, jesse kirsch,

shaq brewster, thank you very much. a multinational company charged with sponsoring the terrorist group isis. lafarge cement have pleaded guilty and agreed to pay a fine. the company admitted paying isis nearly $10.24 million in payments in exchange for the safety of their plant and operations in syria between 2013 and 2014. >> lafarge made a deal with the devil, foreign terrorists who pledged to and in fact did harm the up states, its people and its national security. >> joining me tom winter. prosecutors call this a landmark case. >> they have charged people with

material support which is what they've gone after lafarge with today. they said what were you doing to support them? to be clear both the justice department and the company said it's not as if we were flying the isis flag from our factory. we weren't supporting the ideology but, look, it's not enough not just to do that. you can't be paying them for security and even raw materials from some of the various quarries isis was able to take over in their push for territory in that region. you can't be paying them for raw materials or paying isis to give you isis placards basically security placards that these workers were putting in their cars that the isis logo, this person works for lafarge. they've paid us, taken care of us and you can let them go and get through your checkpoints. even paying for cement trucks and a whole slew of activity.

they have emails according to the statement of facts win lafarge has pleaded guilty to between company executives. if we pay isis this and our materials are this. there's even allegations they were involved in revenue sharing. allegations are pretty strong. they've done this and released these statements before. a swiss firm seed we were unaware of this. they said they were not aware of it and all the people have since departicipated. the executives have not been charged in the united states. >> obviously the concern is if they're paid millions of dollars what does that -- what do those millions of dollars get used for just without making the connection, because i'm not suggesting it and i don't know that it's in these court papers,

but what was isis doing in that period 2013, 2014? beheadings, right? >> we were talking about beheadings, a massive propaganda push to get people not only to go to syria, to travel there and fight with isis but to conduct attacks and put out propaganda calling people to action. what it costs for terrorist acts to be committed, to put out propaganda, the barrier to entry is low. the cost of arms in that part of the world can be very low. a couple million dollars adds up to an awful lot of firepower for isis to not only spread its message but to also pay for them to wage more. >> tom winter, good to have you here. thank you so much. what biden says he will do

if democrats retain control of congress. plus, two democratic candidates, two very different strategies for winning georgia races. insigned the diverging visions of stacy abrams and senator raphael warnock. and a third of ukraine is in the dark after russia unleashed new rounds of strikes targeting the country's power infrastructure. we are live on the ground. we ar. think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no, he's seizing the moment with merrill. moving his money into his investment account in real time and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis persists... put it in check with rinvoq, a once-daily pill. when uc got unpredictable,... i got rapid symptom relief with rinvoq. check. when uc held me back... i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc got the upper hand... rinvoq helped visibly repair the colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief.

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we don't have 60 votes in the senate. if we could get two more -- >> you don't think you could have pushed harder? >> you think we could have gotten ten republican votes? oh, come on. >> that was an msnbc exclusive with andrea mitchell just a couple hours ago. speaker nancy pelosi on why president biden is promising to prioritize the codifying of roe just three weeks before the midterm elections. is he focusing on the right

issue? the polls say otherwise. joining me now kate bedingfield. you heard speaker pelosi say the reason not to vote to codify roe now is the senate doesn't have 60 votes. i guess that begs the question why they think 60 votes will be there in january? why not at least do it while you know you have control of congress? >> thanks for having me. i'm limited in what i can say about politics but what i can say is what the president spoke about today and what he's done since when the dobbs decision came down is to lay out the urgency, the contrast. what you have is you have president biden, someone who has taken steps to protect women's health care, has taken steps to

ensure women having a miscarriage have access to the medicine they need and with republican elected officials around the country an effort to take that right away. it's not just about choice, health care, but the larger right to privacy. questions who you can marry, people's fundamental rights. there's a clear choice here on this issue. the argument you heard from him today is whether we are going forward or going backward. and it's not only choice that he's talking about. you'll hear from him this week on gas prices. being president is about managing a lot of things all at once and you will hear from him on all of these issues. >> what is it we need to do, that the american people are telling us they want? joe biden got elected because he

said i'm listening to you. i'm hearing you, and we've seen abortion is an issue for voters but not the biggest one. the most valuable thing a president has is his time why give his time to this and not the economy? >> he's absolutely giving his time to the economy. he promised to build an economy that works from the bottom up and the middle out and he's done that, put in place fundamentals so our economy is better positioned than any around the world to weather the global economic turmoil we're seeing, we've seen wages go up, filed for creation this year. president biden has worked to build an economy where can get a

good wage. he's focused on this day in and day out. and just because he's focused on ensuring we're building an economy that works for everyone, that doesn't mean that you let go of the very real threat in terms of republican elected officials trying to take these fundamental rights away from women, from families, from men. again, the president has been focused on both. you heard him today on choice and tomorrow on gas prices. >> new polls show a different story, one democratic strategist said i think we peaked a little early. i wonder if you think just the ability to focus on an issue like abortion and stick with it has changed. you've been in the business a long time. were you working for john edwards when we met.

that was many years ago. >> that's right. >> i wonder if it's very hard to keep attention focused on what the president sees as priorities. you have to look at it not just in terms of what he needs to do as president but that he needs a congress that is democratic. >> i can tell you the president thinks about it in terms of what do families around the country need. if you are talking about how to pay the bills this month, that we can make ends meet, so that's how he first and foremost thinks about what he does every day. earlier this year to help bring gas prices down.

or doing what he did in terms of announcing student debt forgiveness. people struggling to start a business because of debt can see some breathing room. what he thinks about how do i prioritize the many competing things on my plate every day, he's thinking about what is going to have the most impact on families and, again, i would argue taking away a woman's right to determine her own health care, criminalizing doctors who are treating women, that's a serious threat. he wants to see roe restored. an official accused of killing a local journalist returned to court with a

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russian air strikes pummeled several ukrainian cities including the capital of kyiv. those strikes energy infrastructure. this video shows multiple projectiles have hit and caused explosions in and around the zaporizhzhia power plant complex. 30% of ukraine's power stations have been destroyed in just the past week according to ukrainian president zelenskyy. the government is warning of possible blackouts. a moment of diplomacy, kyiv and moscow carried out the largest prisoner swap to date, a total of 218 detainees including 108 ukrainian women exchanged. president zelenskyy says that's not enough. he urged to take more russian prisoners. this is the easiest way to free

ukrainians. joining me is cal perry and a former cia chief of operations and current nonresident senior fellow at the atlantic council. good to see you both. cal, talk more about what you're hearing about these ongoing strikes and the impact on real people on the ground. >> reporter: a new phase from an old playbook. russia is out to make the civilian population miserable. it's not just with rocket syndrome, it is what you laid out, the occupation holding nuclear power hostage for this country. strikes along the south, a power plant there. a situation along the niepro river, that the russian koss blow a dam which would then

flood the area and stop the power from flowing. we're already seeing people conserve energy, the concern as we approach winter and it gets very cold here this is a tipping point. if that number reaches 40% those rolling blackouts will go to absolutely no power at all. people will lose their heating. >> cal, thank you. we do appreciate your ongoing reporting. mark, those drones targeting kyiv are made by iran. here is part of what they write. both countries are deep in crisis, struggling economically and politically iran is attempting to quell street protests that pose the most serious challenge in years to the government. a faltering war effort and an unpopular draft. what are you watching for in this alliance and what do you

make of the drone strikes? >> well, chris, thanks for having me on. first of all, this is a terror weapon designed to kill civilians and it's tragic what is happening inside ukraine. the significance of this militarily i think is questionable and more of a sign of russian desperation. the fact that russia is reaching out to iran is quite extraordinary. there's certainly some talk that russia should be designated as well. i would like to see the biden administration do exactly that. this only strengthens ukrainian resolve. there was a great quote by the noted french intellectual and philosopher the other day and he said, quote, the ukrainians will win because they know why they fight this strengthens ukrainian resolve. and what i think is quite significant it strengthens the resolve of the west.

it's counterproductive by putin. i don't believe it's particularly significant militarily and it doesn't hide the fact that the russian military is still competent and perform quite poorly in the war. >> marc, zelenskyy is urging to capture more russians. we talk about the number of people killed and we forget, i think sometimes, how many prisoners have been captured. what do you make of the strategy if it's a strategy? >> i think this is a public relations strategy. one things notable there was some diplomatic back and forth but putin doesn't show any signs of wanting to let up and if you look at recent public opinion polling they want their territory back. it is good to get the prisoners

back and i think zelenskyy has been a master of information operations and the idea of urging more russian prisoners to be taken i think is just part of that strategy. >> marc, thank you so much. great to have you on the program. don't blame the messenger, i'm just asking the question, but is winter here early? the cold bearing down on the midwest and parts of the northeast. but first, oprah winfrey set to make her mid-term campaign entrance. we learned who she'll be campaigning with tomorrow. this is a glimpse into the not-too-distant future of lincoln. ♪♪ what's also nice... the prequel is pretty-sweet, too. ♪♪

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senator raphael warnock is making a pitch to moderates hoping to appeal to the soft republicans and center right republican voters, which begs the question, which one has a better chance of working? nbc news senior national political reporter sahil kapur and the manager editor at the university of virginia centers for politics kyle condit. good to see you. kyle, nbc news just learned that oprah will be joining stacy abrams on the campaign trail tomorrow. she does still turn out particularly women voters. a lot of african american women voters still energized by her. but when you look at the polls and see how far behind, frankly, she is right now, can this help stacy abrams? >> look, i mean, democrats all across the country are trying to recapture the enthusiasm they had in 2018, and you have to

remember it's not just turning out your own voters, it's also a persuasion game and in a state like georgia you have had a lot of voters who have been changing sides, also people moving into the state, et cetera, and maybe that helps explain why you do have a polling difference between the two big races in the state. raphael warnock, up in the senate race. the sitting governor is up five points in his race. we think of voters as not splitting their tickets nearly as much as they used to. some folks still do and a core number of voters who maybe like warnock and kemp , good for warnock but not for abrams as she tries to catch you will up. >> you spoke to experts and did a whole lot of stuff for your reporting. what are you seeing and what's your sense from folks on the ground? is abrams mobilizing or warnock

persuading more with voters? >> chris, most voters i've talked to have made up their mind. this is a very divided state with firm democrats and firm republicans. it is that small group of voters in the middle that could make all the difference here and, yes, stacy abrams' strategy relies heavily on inspiring voters, registering new voters, mobilizing the base, things like raising teacher pay, extending access to child care and pre-k, affording housing to do that, to get voters to care about politics. and raphael warnock is employing a different strategy down the stretch, touting his bipartisan work with republican senators like ted cruz on the i-14 corridor in the south, his work with republicans like tommy tuberville of alabama to protect georgia farmers. he is reaching out to that soft republican voter, that center right vote, maybe that independent voter who used to paint the state solidly red. but since the rise of trump, republicans have become more

about cultural grievances, feels the republican party has left them and they are open to supporting democrats, although not committed to democrats. now who is doing the better strategy here? who is this working better for? the polls say raphael warnock, due to a number of factors. just if you look at independents, a 14 or 15-point delta between how much better raphael warnock is doing than stacy abrams is. that's where the race is at this moment. these two candidates see a different path for themselves in the final stretch in order to win their races. >> inguess it's impossible to quantify, kyle, but generally do we think there are enough persuadable center right voters in georgia willing to support a democrat to make, say, a meaningful difference for raphael warnock? they're almost unicorn-like. you just heard what sahil said. most people have made up their minds. how many haven't? >> look, i think you don't quite

know who will show up. people are still deciding whether they will vote or not, voters who call themselves independent or are legitimately undepp sided are the ones paying the least amount of attention. the three of us are talking about this. we know the material. a lot of people aren't really paying a whole lot of attention and, again, going through that process right now. sometimes there could be something late that happens that ends up being important. one thing about political realignment, which i think you can argue is happening in georgia, that's helped turn it from a red state to more of a purple state now, sometimes it happens at the federal level before it happens at the state level. and so maybe that's participate of what we're seeing here, too, there are some georgia voters who maybe didn't like donald trump, they don't like the way the national republicans have moved. the fact that maybe donald trump doesn't like brian kemp all that much, that brian kemp is the incumbent governor, maybe they are comfortable splitting their ticket that way. there are not a ton of voters

but in close races they could make the difference. >> kyle kondik, sahil kapur, thank you both. appreciate it. and up next, details on that massive cold front that will have nearly 70 million americans feeling like winter is already here. it sure looks like it there. moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief

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it's subway's biggest refresh yet! a former las vegas official charged with killing a journalist will remain in custody. a judge denied his request to be released from jail ahead of the trial. robert telles is accused of killing 69-year-old jeff german, a veteran reporter with the las vegas review journal. telles lost his bid for re-election as the public administrator in june after german reported on allegations of misconduct and favoritism in his office. authorities allege telles confronted german last month outside of his home and stabbed him to death. he has not yet entered a plea. we're only about halfway through fall, but for more than 60 million americans winter is coming and fast. in places like northern wisconsin and michigan, people are already dealing with more than a foot of snow, and more

than four dozen record lows could be tied or broken wednesday morning as far south as the gulf coast. nbc's maggie vespa is live in the upper peninsula of michigan. i have been there, you do not want those winds off of lake superior hitting you. what's going on, maggie? >> reporter: i mean, you can see it. this is insane. we're less than a month technically into fall. we're weeks ahead of halloween, and we've got close to a foot of snow falling, as you said, in parts of the upper peninsula and northern wisconsin. this is heavy, thick, packable as you can see snow, and it's obviously still coming down. and thankfully there is an end in sight. by friday there's a warmup expected. make no mistake, this much snow this early is even hardening the most seasoned of locals. they're all a little rattled by this. take a listen to what we've heard so far today. >> we never get dumped on this much in october. this is usually like -- this is like christmas, not halloween,

like trick or treat or merry christmas. >> oh, i enjoy playing in the snow, skiing, i like to ski and snowshoe and all that, but like anybody who gets on in years, i enjoy it, but i could stand a little less of it. >> reporter: right as he said that, by the way, the wind shifted and snow like hit us all in the face, which is very similar to what's happening right now. it's definitely tough for even those who enjoy this kind of weather. this is not just the midwest, upper michigan, northern wisconsin, we're talking a cold snap affecting areas as far south as kentucky, which is getting a little bit of slow, florida which has temperatures tanked by the system. parts of alabama and mississippi expected to be colder than boston tomorrow. so as you said, kind of a preview of winter and people hope it's just not a sign of what's to come. >> yeah, they're going to have to crank up the heat, and we all know heating costs are going up.

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hi, everybody, welcome. exactly three weeks until the midterms. it's the last chance for parties to seize the momentum as voters are headed to the polls. president biden and democrats out in force to say the least as republican campaigns capitalize on economic concerns. on the campaign trail, candidates facing off with a final message to voters as some states open up early voting this week. and then overseas, iran's fierce protest showing no signs of showing down. today iranians demanding a guarantee of safety for a female climber who competed without her head scarf prompting fears she could be targeted by the