spectacularly. robert lee woods, won at the 20 people arrested in the scheme, today, a miami judge dismissed charges against him on jurisdictional grounds. that judge found that in order for the office to bring these charges, the possible crime, in this case, had to have happened in more than one place in florida. in other words, the judge ruled that desantis's prosecutors got the court system roe. and it appears a precedent has been set. mr. wood's attorney says he is already shared his motion dismiss i'm grounds of jurisdiction would attorneys representing the other 19 people accused of voter fraud, but that in the case and comes at a price. the governor's message to ex felons has been delivered, namely, but at your peril. in the end, that's the point. that does it for us tonight, rachel will be back on monday. i'll see you again on tuesday, and now with 18 days to go in the election, it's time for the kornacki come down with steve kornacki. kornacki

♪ ♪ ♪ good evening, our countdown clock continues to kick away. 17 days, 19 hours, 59 minutes and 39 seconds and counting until the first polls close on election night. here we are back where we were last friday night and where we will be every friday night at this time, counting down to election day. early voting, election day is pretty much underway in a dozen states, where early voting has already begun, including georgia, north carolina, both starting up this week. each of those states home to a key senate race, both of which we will be talking about this hour and tomorrow. early voting beginning in nevada, and that is where democrats may face what is their toughest individual battle to hold the senate seat.

we have reporters on the ground there and then does two other battleground states we mentioned, we'll be joined by them shortly. plus, we will hear from voters in michigan that is where the governor's race has heated things up a bit this week and where there is a referendum to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, that will be on the ballot in a few weeks as well. all of that is ahead this hour. we'll start though with the question that everybody seems to be asking this week, and that is are we witnessing a shift in the national political climate in just 17 days out from election day. so here's why that day -- question is being asked. let's take a look at the latest numbers. this is the generic ballot, the question asked, they want the democrats or republicans to control congress. when we came on at the air at this exact time last week, this is where it stood. remember, republicans had the lead, it was a narrow lead. it was inside a point, nine tenths of a point. now, a week later, here is where the generic bell sits tonight at this hour.

there's been movement, there's been a change. republicans have now opened up a lead in excessive 3.1 points, the average, the real clear average. republicans with that advantage now. so, you start to see here, if you take the trend line for the year, it really does start to look like republicans are creating some distance here. let's just remind you, go back to me, go back to the spring, republicans have been pretty solid advantage on the generic belt. remember in 2021, this off year elections, they won the governorship in virginia, they nearly pulled a big upset in new jersey, they came into 2022 with a head of steam and then, at the end of june, you've got that supreme court ruling overturning roe v. wade. you had donald trump front and center in the news, the mar-a-lago rate. lo and behold, by august, democrats actually caught republicans in the generic about. take a look at that blue line, it was a above the red line for much of august into december into the middle of september, and republicans did move back

ahead, but here it is, it's the last week you're looking at here. it's the real divergence, we've seen it over the last week, republicans have opened up a lead, the size of which they have not had in months. again, this is just with a little bit more of two weeks between now and election day. the question is, have they open up a lead for good here? couldn't get wider? or are we in for another change in these final days, these final weeks of the campaign, could democrats tighten that still once more, as they did over the summer? certainly, a significant week in terms of the movement that we have seen here. also, i think notably, putting this into context, these are the most recent wave elections we've seen in the terms, where the opposition party, the party that does not at the white house and done really well in the midterms. you see again, republicans leading the generic ballot right now, 3.1. where was the generic ballot at the same point in these recent wave elections, where you can see, this republican number is not where it was in 2010, when republicans had that huge mid

term and won 63 seats in the house. breakable most recent term, it's not where it was for democrats four years ago, when democrats had that blue wave, took back the house and trump's first midterm. but that 3.1 lead, it's pretty comparable to where things were at this point in 2020 -- that was barack obama's second term as president, know it's a late building, late forming wave. it took a lot of people by surprise, really up until election day, but republicans took back the senate in 2014, and they got to their highest level of house seats since 1928. you start to see that movement this week, it's brought the current picture kind of in line with what we are looking at in 2014. that could be significant as well. what has driven this shift here? one thing is certain, there was bad inflation news in the last week or so, just looking out here, the long term trend line on inflation since the start of the biden presidency, just within the last ten days, some bad news for the recent

inflation report. here by the way, new numbers from the university -- just out today, asking voters in their survey, what did they consider the most important issue? we have seen this a lot now, we've seen this in a lot of polls, 41% citing inflation as their top concern. there's a new york times poll earlier this week, if you can find the inflation and economy, it was 44% that issue. and the clues number two here as well, crime and safety, 22% cited in this pen poll. this up today, and we have seen, we'll talk about this later, will zoom in on crowd a little bit later, but on both of these issues, we have seen in polls, when you ask which party as the advantage, which party is getting more support from the public, the republicans have been doing well on the issues. democrats have been doing better on abortion, climate change and guns. you see in terms of the issues, inflation in particular, the runaway leader here in terms of the issue that voters say is on their minds. again, the numbers moved this

week what does that mean? what could democrats do to canada, let's break things down here. joining me now, jim messina, president obama's 2012 campaign manager, also deputy chief of staff to the obama white house and ceo of macina group. also with us, rich lowry, editor in chief at the national review and nbc news political analysts. i want to thank you both for joining us. jim, let me start with you because i mentioned, i don't mean to bring up bad memories for the past for democrats here, but i mentioned the 2014 midterm and that obama's second midterm, the numbers on paper, when you look at the generic ballot right now, look somewhat like they did in 2014. are we looking at 2014. do you think we're looking at 2014 playing out again here, or is this something that democrats can do for that could happen in the next 17 days that could change the trend that we have seen this week?

>> i am wondering whether or not it's more like 2018 you showed the numbers earlier, that was interesting, the dems had a seven-point lead since they took over the house, but in the same election, the republicans have picked up seats in the senate, because their math was better. as you look at this election, i am wondering whether democrats have strength in the center isis, or as the house races not to look up. or history matters, you and i are data geeks if you look at the past 40 years, elections and midterms, the presidents party loses senate seats in 28 houses. the more interesting question is where that does not happen. the two times in the last 40 years, where it did not happen, we're national issues surging in the end. the question for democrats, is abortion the issue to swing voters in battleground states, or is inflation. that's going to be the question that you are asking on election night that really shows who what when these races. >> just a follow-up on the,

when you look at that trend line we showed, where over the summer, when abortion was getting a ton of attention, obviously, the ruling had just come down, everybody was digesting the implications, and he saw democrats actually take the lead under the generic ballot, and now you see them falling behind by three points. has the residents of the issue lessened with different up to voters, swing voters? >> i don't think so, i tweeted out in may the punch -- when i sent those midsummer numbers were sugar high. i think they were a sugar high. elections are always hard for the presidents party, but what i think matters more is the actual voter numbers. if you look at early votes, 6 million people really voted already. democrats are opposing republicans, which shows me the enthusiasm. democrats have got to turn out their voters. i think they have a tough battleground with independent voters, where they have

inflation, all these other things, but what i really care about emitter elections, what you and i really work at, are these turnout numbers. which party has the advantage in turnout? those are the numbers that i will really be looking out over the next few days? >> rich, i pick up on the, because it's staggering if you take a step back and look at turnout from the midterm elections. it was about 150 million in 2018. if you went back to 2014, i think it was 86 million. there is just been this explosion of interest in politics, where you can tie it to the rise of trump and everything around him, the expectation will be even higher this year does that at a level of mystery? you can see republicans taking the lead in a generic ballot, but how confident do you feel in a number like that when you're looking at the prospect of maybe 120, hundred 30 million people voting in the bitter? we've never seen that before. >> this is one thing i talked to a lot of republicans today,

the one thing that they are wondering about is that early vote in georgia, who are those people? where are they from? there's a little concern there, but otherwise, steve, they see everything break in the right way right now. it's still 18 days, or whatever. the momentum could sell out, so they could change, but you see in the public polling, internal polling, the general issue, environment, jim races the question of what would be the most important issue, the economy, inflation or abortion? i don't think it's close. it was not close to a couple months ago in a new york times cnn poll that had 36 prints sent of people saying that -- it's up now, 44%. abortion is clearly a second tier issue and now a second tier issue eclipse the by crime and immigration. at the moment, republicans are feeling very good they only needed a typical mid term they don't need a blockbuster. they're going to pick up the house regardless and just a typical midterm will get into the senate as well, if you only need one seat. they are optimistic they will

do much better than the. >> one other question is if it is the kind of night that republicans are now anticipating and hoping for, that will almost necessarily mean that a lot of these candidates, who have really tethered himself that much trump, will be successful, now kjtv and sun ohio, a blake masters in arizona, herschel walker in georgia, the list could go on. if republicans have a big night in 2022, is the consequence of that that donald trump's grip on the party is strengthened? >> it will help them at the margins, but i think that is kind of exaggerated trump based deliberately threw away two senate seats in georgia, in the special elections, right after the 2020 election in november and paid almost zero price for it in the party. even if every one of his hand pecans went down, i'm not sure what would affect the much you're looking at the kari lake,

very likely to win the arizona gubernatorial race is not done. she has a narrow lead. she's likely to win. she's one of the people a lot of people thought, i thought, was committing suicide to nominate a stop to school person like her. turns out, she's a practice performer, been on tv for more than 20 years. she actually might help blake masters get over the top. the senate, a lot of these races still really close, but i think the overton window is thought some. i would say last week, if you ask me, 52 seats from republicans, you know, you can squeeze the right way and say it could get up to 53 or 54, possibly. i'm not predicting that, but i think it's possible. >> rich lowery, jim messina, thanks and standby will come back to a little bit later this hour. coming up, the battle for the senate, democrats trying to hang on to control that i have now. we'll show you all the latest numbers and get a live report from the state where they may be the most vulnerable.

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down until i pull close on election night. it will be in indiana, by the

way, 6:00 eastern time, cannot wait to be here with all the results. welcome back, and at this hour last week, the first debate between senator raphael warnock and herschel walker just ended in georgia. in that the bait, warnock notably did not engage with walker on those reports that in 2009, walker had pay for his then girlfriend to have an abortion. that's something that walker has denied, but today, notably the warnock campaign did decide to engage directly on this topic. they went up with this out. >> i am raphael warnock, and i approve this message. >> for you, herschel walker wants to ban abortion. >> there's no exception in my mind -- >> there's not a national ban on abortion right now, and i think that's a problem. >> but for himself -- >> herschel walker paid for an abortion for his then girlfriend. >> he supported her claims with a 575 dollar receipt from the abortion clinic. >> even his own son is saying that walker is lying. >> is that your signature on the check now?

>> yes, that's my -- >> and if you are watching the show right now, i don't mean to tell you the significance of the georgia sent the race. we're not quilted now in terms of the overall battle for control of the senate. if you take a look here, we have been monitoring this of the democrat held seats, since republicans are targeting and hoping to make their gains in. republicans actually have an advantage in one, in the next best place for republicans now is in georgia, in terms of play offense were not leading in the polls there, two and a half points on average over herschel walker. remember, in georgia, they have that runoff rule. if no one gets 50% in november 8th, december six, though i have a runoff there. let's talk a little bit more about were not campaign decision to put this at out, what it could mean for the race. joining us is greg bluestein, political reporter for the atlanta journal-constitution and author of flipped, how george return purple and brooke coming up early on republican power. he's also a msnbc political

contributor. thank you for taking a few minutes to join us tonight. i appreciate it. i wonder if you could tell us the fact that and we could go, i remember, we were to standing here remarking that it seemed interesting that in the debate, the topic of those allegations against herschel walker were raised, and warnock did not seem to want to go anywhere near it. now his campaign does, we should be read into that? >> yeah, not only during the debate but the days before the debate. when i asked him and other reporters asked him on the campaign trail about the allegations, he would say, there's a part of a disturbing pattern of behavior or avoid talking about them altogether. now we see a clear tactical shift, leaning into this argument, the patrice herschel walker as a hypocrite that would impose restrictions on women except for in the case of his girlfriend back in 2009, which he has denied those allegations. but for warnock's camp, this is a reflection of the polls here, the really tight. there is under 50% in most of these polls, they do want to

leave anything on the table that could affect them. >> did they feel, i wonder, a week now to process the aftermath of this debate, did they feel that walker may have done better in the, got more out of that than they expected him to? >> yeah, clearly, whether or not his campaign feels that, there are democrats here on the ground who feel that, that herschel walker blended some of the criticism by coming out swinging, by having a seemingly solid performance and by doing what herschel walker needed to do which is shore up -- he was not trying to go and draw a new voters really, but he wanted to shore up the base, because you're continuing to see poll after poll that shows the split ticket train in georgia, republicans voted for governor brian kemp and other statewide republicans voting that they would not vote for herschel walker. his job at that the bait was to give them some confidence in the campaign. there is a sense done here in georgia that he did that. >> all right, greg bluestein in

atlanta, thank you for joining us, appreciate that. and from one battleground state to another, let's go back to the board here. we were just talking about what was going on in georgia with walker -- with or not, excuse me, leading the polls there. let's go to the other side, the republican held seats that democrats are targeting. again, democrats are trying to prevent republicans from getting a net gain of one seat here. you see, we talked a lot about pennsylvania on paper, that's where democrats had their best shot. this one has been sitting here at the entire election, very close. we think of north carolina as a red state. ted but, the republican nominee there against -- does lead, but that margin is close. it's pretty close to what we were talking about in georgia. let's take a closer look here at north carolina here, by the way. the matchup again is beasley versus but, but let's show you the 2020 presidential election in north carolina. yeah, it was a trump state, it was close. remember, we did not call this thing for a long time in 2020.

donald trump's margin was about 75,000 votes here, 1.3 points. i think notably, that was down from 2016. in 2016, trump won the state by 175,000 votes, green happens, so democrats did not win north carolina in 2020, but they made progress, got a very close, and they made republican sweat. i think the backdrop in a way for the senate race in 2022, from the republican standpoint, they expect to hold a seat. this has been stubbornly close so far, for more on what is playing out in north carolina, nbc's antonia hylton joins us now from raleigh. a little bit more than two weeks to go to election day. we keep seeing polls that show a close race there in north carolina. what are some of the dynamics shaping the race, we should be looking for in the closing weeks? >> a, steve, north carolina will be really fascinating, and it's interesting to me just how

much people have slept on this race a bit. i think that's in part because the candidates here have been running less flashy or controversial campaigns here. but a lot of the same core issues that we are seeing battled across the country right now are at the forefront here, but then there are other unknown factors that make north carolina really interesting. first, this is a state that has more unaffiliated voters than virtually any other state in the country. they are in the midst of a massive and historic voting rights expansion. 56,000 former felons have just regained the right to vote, since a court ruling to summer, and that may not sound like a lot of people but in a state where people lose or win races by a matter of a couple hundred or just a couple dozen votes, that actually has a drastic effect on the electorate here, and the voters who put their group, again, it goes back to this unaffiliated voter camp, they don't really fit into clean boxes, they're people who are adversely affected by economic issues, the rising cost of living, they're worried about inflation, but they've also had a civil rights taken away from them, so they tend to

have a lot of sympathy when it comes to conversations about women's reproductive rights and abortion access. pick a listen to a conversation i had with one second chance voter who's doing everything he can to get a lot of folks to the polls or no. >> you hear a lot of individuals that's in this base, say that justice is on the ballot, and the reason they say justice is on the ball is because you have a lot of supreme court seats. you have a lot of district attorney's running for office, the sheriff running. all those individuals now have to see us. now, our voices powerful. if i get 500 of those individuals, then that's a political power that we hold. therefore, anytime someone in this town, in this county one for something, they had to come to us. just imagine, if i got 1000 votes directly impacted voters it's, not what it means for us, it means what does it mean for

them? >> for a lot of voters that we talk to, it's abortion versus the economy, inflation, the cost of living the biggest issue or is it reproductive access for women? sometimes, those issues are combined. one might say the economy is number one, but they are so concerned about access to abortion, that that might be the motivating factor that has made them interested in determining a cycle that might not have otherwise including on. so, all these factors here in north carolina make it so that it's ted budd's wrist to lose, certainly, people in gerry beasley's camp feel confidence that they can still pull it off. jim clyburn was here, democrats are still spending millions of dollars here. this is still really a paragraphs. >> all right antonio hilton in north carolina's capital city, thank you for taking a few minutes to join us tonight, appreciate it. again, our here a battleground states, we'll continue now back into the calm of democratic held seats that republicans are targeting. this is the one, the only one

who see that is covered in red right now. this is the only democratic seat, nevada, where republicans currently lead in the polling average. that's adam laxalt, the republican challenger to democratic senator catherine cortez masto. he leads in the polling. if republicans can make this actually happen in the election, and if, big if here, if they can defend all the seats that they already hold, that would be enough to give republicans control of the u.s. senate. it could come down to this race in nevada. so, in early voting by the way, starting in nevada tomorrow. the election begins tomorrow in nevada tomorrow. nbc's -- is live in las vegas, where the early voting will begin tomorrow. garrett, catherine cortez masto, the police say that she is in trouble. is she, and why? >> she's largely in trouble because of the economy. in nevada, that's an issue a inflation. nevada has some of the worst inflation in the country, gas

prices around $5 a gallon here in las vegas area. polling has shown that republicans generally, and in laxalt specifically, have had the advantage on that issue so far, so the challenge is twofold. first, she has to confront the economic issues -- she knows nevadans care about. we talk about that in our interview is the day. she had an event with latina business owners just today, which was a significant focus. that's issue number one. her second challenge is to try to expand the number of issues, the sleigh of issues that voters here are considering, as they start to fill up melts and go early. to do that, she's been talking about abortion rights access, spending a lot of money on television, on abortion related advertisements. that's obviously a big issue in a state that has traditionally protected abortion rights. he's also been trying to neutralize laxalt on the issue of crime. she's been doing that by linking him to the efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. remember, he was a trump coach here in nevada. he was a vault and some of the lawsuits to overturn the

results. today, that pays dividends when she secured the endorsement of the reno police chief, the second largest city in nevada who tied laxalt support for the stop the steal effort directed to is endorsement. is the person to a chief has endorsed a democrat. here's what the chief had to say today. >> laxalt and his allies fuel lies and support the mob of insurrectionists. some are the nation's capital on january six, our senator was defending the vote, supporting the constitutional process to secure that vote. >> steve, i can tell you, i talked to a lot of republicans working on this race, they believe that they are ahead, but they are wary the democratic turnout mission in nevada as traditionally been excellent. the corner union, the machine that harry reid had built has been good for points in the past. if it's close, it could be a late night here in las vegas camilla today >> all right,

garrett, could be a late few nights there for the 20 twenties -- thank you for that report, really appreciate that coming up, there's an issue besides inflation and the economy that republican candidates are spending big to play up in their ads that is crime. we'll show you what voters are seeing on their tvs in competitive races across the country, and we will look at the effect is having on voters that is next.

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election night, getting closer and closer by the second. we have talked tonight, we talked last week about the issues of the economy and inflation, about how republicans have enjoyed an advantage on the, might explain why they taken a lead in the generic ballot. we talked about how democrats hope the issue of abortion will help them to counter the, help them to bring out some new voters, extra voters this fall, bring that turnout level to new heights. there's another issue though that republicans have been emphasizing and maybe gaining some junction. we thought we would take a look at the, and that is the issue of crime here. it's an interesting way to look at it. it's a poll that came out this week, taking a look at issues that republican seem to have their biggest rings here, issues that voters say are, in their words, very important to them, and terms of making up their minds in the midterms.

again, not surprisingly, you see that the economy is very high. look what is second, violent crime. all of these are issues where republicans have the advantage. how big of an advantage, the pupil, here we go. on crime, it's 17 points and then foreign policy and immigration you see here as well. this is an issue. again, six and ten voters saying it's very important to them, and they are giving republicans a 17-point advantage. this is an issue that republicans have been running heavily on. you see it and ads for house races, governor races, senate races. we'll give you an example. new york state, you don't think of it necessarily as the most politically competitive place, but when it comes for the battle of the house here, it certainly is. there are potentially competitive house races all over the state. you look at republican candidates in the races, they are playing on the issue of crime heavily in their ads. you look at some other key senate races here, suburbs of philadelphia, suburbs of

milwaukee, again, an issue of crime featuring prominently in republican messaging. take a look here, a look at some of the ads that voters in places like i am describing are seeing. >> mandela barnes stands with defund the police and supports no cash bill that releases criminals back into our communities. >> -- even as crime reaches out of control of the state. josh riley, extreme liberal, dangerous. >> raphael warnock called the police dogs, qatar funding and wants to end cash bill and put criminals back on the street. >> why is radical john fetterman dodging debates? because he cannot defend free and convicted murderers even over josh shapiro's -- >> beto supports groups that want defund the police -- which is why beto o'rourke never be governor of texas. >> -- has made it easier to be a criminal than a cop. she's released criminals from prison earlier and appointed

soft on crime judges. >> streets are exploding with drugs and violence, while liberals liked ryan attack and fund -- tim, but to criminals, not the cops. >> joining us now is kyle kondik, the managing editor of the crystal ball newsletter at the virginia center for politics. he is watched over 330 campaign that's the season. congratulations on that, kyle, my condolences. i'm not sure which one applies, but were given folks a taste of these republican ads putting up crime. since you have watched all these, what's your sense that the economy and inflation versus crime, in terms of the emphasis republicans are placing on indoor ads? which one outweighs the other? >> look, i think you saw a representative cross section that we are seeing from republicans on crime. you know, it's all more vivid, i guess, you get more of a visceral reaction, which is probably what ad makers are

going for. compared to other republican messaging, a lot of it is canada x photos, joe biden and nancy pelosi 90% of the time. the crime stuff, it kind of hits you in the got a little more when they see a lot of ads, they think republicans are going back to race baiting. republicans i think point to a lot of criminal justice reform efforts in blue states, that they are good to have not worked. have led to spikes in crime, again, it's all in the eye of the beholder, i guess, but you see this crime messaging a lot, and you mentioned new york, one interesting piece about new york congressional races is that it's common to see biden and pelosi -- kathy hochul, the democratic governor, in a swing district republican attack ads, which is interesting. >> we see this polling, and i've seen -- pew polling where republicans have the advantage on the issue of crime.

you're watching all these ads, seeing republicans play it up, are you noticing democrats countering it in any way? how are they doing it? are they doing it more than before? what does it look from their perspective? >> absolutely, democrats talk about this issue is not to. what democrats often do, they put law enforcement in their own aunts. one is of a congressional candidate in california, adam gray, he put a bunch of republican county sheriffs in his assets. democrats feel like they can put law enforcement officers in their own ads to validate for themselves, but i think what ends up happening too is that you hear the same thing from both republicans and democrats, a sort of tough on crime message, which when you think about two years ago, summer 2020 and the reaction to the murder of george floyd and all the, the idea of a reform movement, the pendulum has swung back where you got both

sides competing in what you think to be the republican law enforcement territory, really pro law enforcement and tough on crime. again, that's neither good nor bad, but that's interesting that is where we are at right now. >> kyle kondik from uva, thank you for joining us, appreciate. our panel will rejoin us now. jim messina and rich lowery. welcome back to both of you. jim, i want to start with you and actually play a clip of a panel that was put together for morning joe here. democratic voters in philadelphia, obviously part of pennsylvania, one of the key senate races. here's a panel with democratic voters in philadelphia asking about the presence of crime in the city and its impact in their lives. take a listen to this. >> have you seen a rise specifically in our neighborhoods? >> there's arise everywhere. >> or around the city. >> carjackings crazy, robberies,

it just does not make any sense. >> it seemed to be more than ever. >> it's not just the city, it's even into the suburbs, but it's obviously more heavily concentrated in the urban areas. but absolutely, we don't even know going home today, how we're going to feel, whether you're driving or public transportation, what will happen. >> jim, when you see a panel like the, and you see a number like we showed you in pew, where republicans had the advantage, what can and what should democrats be saying and doing in the next 17 days when it comes to this issue? >> yeah, see, this is another issue that drives me crazy. democrats cannot seem to message their way out of a paper back on this one first of all, docks matter here. crime rates in red states are higher in then crime rates into states you don't hear democrats

talk about this second, you to do what joe biden did ankle right at the front of police, saying absolutely not. biden said over my to body. dirt, you have to do what catherine cortez masto did and take the fight to the republicans and use this as a law and order issue to do exactly what kyle talked about earlier, put a bunch of cops, especially republican cops in their ads and don't see the issue. let's go back to what republicans are doing this. they're doing this because they're bleeding suburban women votes all over the place, so they're trying to change the subject. this work in 2020, crime was a big issue. the big differences that dobson of. been the question for the suburban voters is will it be about abortion or be about crime? it will be about crime if democrats don't push back on this. >> let me ask you about that, rich, because the biggest schiff we saw, one of the critical shifts we saw in 2020 against thought of trump came in the suburbs in one of the biggest challenges from republicans in 2022 has been trying to win back those voters.

as jim was saying, this clearly see crime as a way to do the. you see that advantage they have on the, i am curious, where do you think republicans with the suburban voters who defected from trump in 2020, where are republicans still vulnerable today? >> they've made gains. just not having trump on the belt, because a lot of the reaction had to do with personal revulsion over trump and the way he conducted himself, but the crime issue, it's real. you look at the numbers, the panel is talking about it, something like robberies with guns or something is up 60% in philadelphia, just shocking. you've seen that in major urban areas around the country. i was talking to -- he has never seen a candidates image fall as sharply as mandela barnes and john fetterman, when the brush started on crime. barnes is narrowly behind, fetterman is narrowly ahead,

but this is a real power issue. it's not one fabricated. it's one people care about, but republicans basically boot strapped it up on abortion largely by talking about it and making it an issue. so this is something, what i said about republicans in the summer, when they are getting hit on abortion, find defensible ground, a compromise position, where you can at least neutralize the possibility -- democrats need to find a way to do the same thing on crime. >> all right, rich lori and jim messina, thank you both for being with us tonight. appreciate it. coming up, talking about the issue of abortion. it is on the ballot is november in michigan. literally, and that is where msnbc's ali bell she is live on the ground, and he will join us next. next peaceful state. full plate. wait, are you my blind date? dancing crew. trip for two. nail the final interview. buy or lease? masterpiece. inside joke. artichoke.

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polling, some of the polling we've been getting out of michigan has been closer than many expected. i think when dixon won this primary, there was an expectation perhaps that whitmer was in a strong position for the fall. whitmer is leading in the polls, but this is the real clear average here, and you could see dixon in this averages within striking distance. so, if got a close election there for governor in michigan. and the other major race you have got in michigan, there is a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would say that abortion is a right under the state constitution. remember, we saw this in kansas, obviously, we thought in a differently worded referendum, that attracted massive interest over the summer. from kansas now to michigan, and the issues taking center stage in michigan, and that ballot referendum and this governor's race on the ground in detroit. msnbc's ali velshi has been out there covering this race, covering this referendum. ali, thank you for joining us, first of all, and why don't you tell us first, what are you hearing, when it comes to abortion on the ground there in michigan?

>> well, probably, it's the issue that is most driving voter registration and turnout, particularly among women in michigan. i have heard it on both sides, though. i've heard that women who are fighting for this proposal, that you just talked about, to enshrine constitutional rights into the constitution, saying that women are signing up at great rates, and they're gonna show up at rates that are much higher than would typically be seen in both midterm election and the midterm election in which there is not a big senate race. i also heard from someone today who said it's activating conservatives, who want to go out there, and a vote on the other side. bottom line, unlike kansas, kansas was a question to take away existing protections in the kansas constitution. this is to fix the fact that michigan's abortion law is now a 1931 law that is very much bans abortion across the board. it's been deemed unconstitutional at the moment, so it is in a van. but the bottom line is, this is a measure to try and make abortion constitutional in michigan. here is the one i spoke to today, one of the panel of six

people i spoke to, who said she is working hard to register and motivate people to vote on this particular issue. >> i think the biggest issue in michigan is abortion. i am hearing that from, like i said, other parents, from the women that i work with, through my profession, and families in general. there is people watching, they want to know that they have reproductive rights. and that they have access to health care when they needed. it is not just abortion. it is lots of other services that are related. >> i am dealing with a lot of different community groups and folks. that is what's the most important right now. can i get a job? can i pay for my home? can i pay my rent? you know, i am not picking on this abortion issue, that is a luxury for some people to be their number one concern. for suburban moms, and for folks outside of inner cities, that might be the biggest issue. but in the inner cities, it's about jobs. >> second gentleman was a republican, and he was saying

that, like the other republican on my panel, they were saying that the economy is the most important issue. but for most of the democrats on the panel, abortion was issue number one here. >> all right, again, that governor's race, that abortion referendum in michigan, one of those states were gonna be following closely. 17 days can change from now, and those results coming in, ali velshi in detroit, thank you so much for joining us. ali will have much more live from michigan tomorrow, and you can catch him starting at 8 am, right here on msnbc. and we will be back with more. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ i've always had trouble falling asleep and staying asleep, you know, insomnia. but then, i found quviviq, an fda approved medication for adults with insomnia. and i'm glad i found it. you wouldn't believe some of the things people suggested to help me sleep. nature sounds? ahh, no thanks. my friend's white noise idea. nope.

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>> all right, we've got a big week ahead on the campaign trail, and a long wait in pennsylvania senate debate between lieutenant governor, john fetterman, and dr. amendment oz, it's gonna happen this coming tuesday, before governor ron desantis is gonna debate former government. now, his democratic opponent charlie crist and former president barack obama is gonna hit the campaign trail, starting friday in georgia. we are going to have complete coverage of that next friday night on the countdown. the nbc news poll is coming out on sunday morning. you're gonna get brand-new numbers less than 48 hours from now. we'll see right, here next friday night, 10 pm eastern, when the 11th hour is next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪