good morning. 10:00 a.m. eastern, 7:00 a.m. pacific. we begin in the united kingdom, which is about to get its third prime minister in less than two months. a short time ago the ruling

conserative party said sunack won the race and prime minister. the first person of color ever to hold that position. he will succeed liz truss after 44 days in office because of a revolt over her economic policies. former prime minister boris johnson thought about a comeback but ended up pulling out of a race. nbc news correspondent and associate editor at the financial times. what can we expect him to take over as prime minister? >> reporter: jose, this has been a very fast moving forward days since liz truss stepped down. it will be a fast moving 24 hours. what we expect, and you mentioned in your in tree, not only the first person of color to walk through 10 downing, also the youngest prime minister in two centuries, really a historic

day. so what we expect, and we can't confirm exact timing is liz truss, who is still prime minister technically, will have to go to king charles to resign. then we expect him to be asked to form a government. then what happens? he walks into 10 downing, jose. what we expect is to hear about his cabinet ministers. the problem with so much turnover is that when new ministers go into their post, there is paralysis. those people have to get up to speed. this government has to get back to functioning. whether ben wallace and jeremy hunt will cope keep their jobs.

what challenges does he face when he walks into 10 downing street and deals with his ministers? >> reporter: yeah. really big challenge, we should say. he inherits some of the economic situation that happened prior to liz truss's premiership. but things have gotten markedly worse in the past few weeks. the country is facing a very cold winter, rising energy prices. inflation even higher than the u.s. over 10%. he also needs to give a real sense of calm and security to the country. what is interesting about a leadership contest, this is not a general election. the people of the united kingdom did not go to the polls and elect the prime minister.

he is the third conservative prime minister just this year. the fifth in six years. while he may have a mandate of his political party, of his fellow conservative mps, jose, if you look at the general polling, at kind of the numbers countrywide, the conservative party does not have the mandate of the country. if there was a general election, labor would win by a landslide, jose. >> what does it mean to have him as prime minister? >> obviously, it's a major moment in the political and social life of the uk, right? the first person who is present in the united kingdom is a product of our long, now obviously gone, empire. british indians are the largest minority here in the united kingdom.

the historic nature will give the conservative party a slight bounce at a time when they are facing a crisis partly of their own making. it will remind them they are far and away the most successful in politics. >> so let's talk about the fact that he is 9 youngest pm, will be the youngest in just generation. he just became the minister of finance at 39 years of age under johnson. one of the wealthiest politicians in the uk. >> yes. the first time ever the prime

minister will be wealthier than the monarch. his youth reflects a tumultuous couple of years here. the top of the parties has been completely wiped out by various civil wars. that's resulted in having on both sides of the house, a much older man. he came to politics late on in his life after having a successful career in law. and sishi sunak to be knocking on the cabinet around about now. it reflects in many ways the very chaotic period the united kingdom has had. he will hope to project this idea, look, that's coming to an end now. i'm a return in many ways. although he is a historic individual because of his ethnicity, in many ways he is a

traditional conservative type of politician. he went to a world famous university, oxford. he will hope to restore a more normal uk. >> whatever more normal looks like in the future, is still to be determined. also this morning, over 7 million americans have cast their ballots early in the critical midterm elections. early in-person voting is under way in florida, texas, and south carolina as candidates make their final pitches ahead of election day. tonight in florida, ron desantis will face off with democratic challenger, charlie crist in their first and only debate after their original debate was postponed due to hurricane ian. meanwhile, another high-profile governors race in texas where the latest polling shows greg abbott with a 10-point lead over beto o'rourke. joining us now with the very latest is priscilla thompson

live from katy, texas. and ali vitale from fort pearce, florida, and normal political editor for lx news and victoria degrees cho soto, an msnbc contributor. early voting kicks off today in texas. there's already long lines to be seen. what are the top issues driving the race? >> reporter: that's right, jose. there were around 40 people here whenever polls opened this morning. we have had an opportunity to talk to around a handful of voters so far. and what we're hearing from them, we spoke to one young voter, first time voting. he is a student at ut austin. came back to cast his ballot for beto o'rourke. he is focused on abortion and

lbgtq issues. he feels beto owe returning will be the better candidate for him on those issues. at the same time, every other voter we have spine to have been a bit older and their issues are far bigger than that. they are talking about immigration, the economy, and what's happening in schools and finding a candidate that aligns with their values. take a listen >> i want to make sure our freedoms are secure and we continue to do what's best for the people of america. >> i wanted to vote to support things like abortion and scaring voters away from democrats when the democratic policies are better for the economy, immigrants, lbgt, anyone who really makes america america.

>> reporter: and one of the reasons why it's so interesting to hear those viewpoints in a place like fort ben county, we talked about suburbs like this trending blue. mitt romney won by 16 points in 2012, beating obama easily. it has trended blue, going to hbg and joe biden. even in 2018 when he ran against ted cruz he beat ted cruz by 12 points. it reflects more of what we are seeing in statewide polling, taking the lead over beto o'rourke in the final days before election day. jose. >> thank you. and, victoria, you know texas very well. what should both parties be taking away from what we are

hearing on the ground? when it comes to the economy and the issue of abortion, very front and central to part of this electoral season? >> reporter: well, in terms of the economy, jose is on the democratic side really recognizing the pain. the issue of abortion is very important. but that doesn't negate the financial pain people are feeling. we are paying close to $5 at the gas pumps. food is getting more expensive. it's getting cold in a lot of places in the u.s. rising energy costs. people thinking about the holidays. how they will make ends meet. it is so important that democrats are able to connect the dots for the voters. on the flip side, with republicans, and especially those republican women, independents. we know independents are more split. 30% for ds. 40% for rs. to not denigrate reproductive

rights as well. it is showing the voters they bring a package, that they're not just one issue parties in the final stretch, jose. >> and meanwhile, you're in florida ahead of tonight's critical debate. what does charlie crist need to do? >> the skies have opened up on us. you understand how florida weather goes for us out here. in this race, it is really ron desantis's to lose. it shows him consistently ahead. some showing him in double digits. polls can be fickle, especially in florida which starts early in-person voting today. ron desantis able to campaign on the things that he has done. the things he has cut as a

leader in florida. versus 2018 when he was running on the trump coattails. that's not to say he is not sticking close to the former president. crime, keeping taxes low, all of these things charlie crist is doing, which is hitting ron desantis on health care, reproductive access, many things we have seen in the national conversation being brought to this smaller microcosm of florida itself. a new poll from telemundo shows 56% of hispanic voters in florida approve of the job that governor ron desantis is doing. they will meet for their only debate here in this contest. it was postponed due to the hurricane. they will go head to head

tonight to see if ron desantis can get re-elected or charlie crist can return to the governor's mansion himself >> is it still raining? it must be just pouring out there. i feel so bad for ali because it changes from one second to the other. super rain, super sun and lear jet sized mosquitos. brand-new polling from hispanic voters in florida which shows ron desantis with a solid advantage there. what does it tell us? >> reporter: it tells us he has pie-in. it confirms a lot of republican claims, hispanic voters are trending more and more to the right. it is significantly different than a his pappic in other parts of the sun belt. republicans are clearly effective in messaging to these groups of voters in florida. he has a seven-point lead for this upcoming race. his 56% overall approval tells

us they support what the governor is doing. >> yeah. vicky, the poll found florida hispanics side with him on the marchs that vineyard flight. 43% oppose. what do you make of that? >> i am not surprised. we saw trump nearly lost the latino vote in florida in 2020 but he won the cuban vote, and especially seeing a big swing in miami-dade county. we also know that republicans the last eight years have been investing a lot of monday to the ground game with latinos. and the job approval of desantis. the last poll, 73% of latinos approved of the recovery effort of hurricane ian. you see a lot of support from

different aspects towards governor desantis. quite honestly, i'm not surprised at these numbers. >> well, victoria, nolan, priscilla, ali vitale, a lot to see and study coming out of the midterm elections. still ahead, deeper inside the polling with steve kornacki. enthusiasm sky high. so, who has the edge? first, we will go live to ukraine with what the u.s. is saying about the russia's claim they are planning to use a dirty bomb. you are watching "jose diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. r. (kari) so i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it is just right for my little business. (jeni) we switched, too. 5g ultra wideband in more cities keeps our project teams on the same page, even when we can't be in the same place. (kari) unlimited premium data, unlimited hotspot data. my point of sale is on point. (jeni) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america?

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u.s., britain, france, rejecting russia's claim made without any evidence that ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb in its own territory and blame it on russia. he warned that rolling blackouts continue. everyone will need to be conscious about how much electricity they use. two russian pilots killed after their jet crashed into a

residential build anything a siberian city on sunday, according to a local official, it was the second crash of a russian military jet in the span of six days. joining us now, foreign correspondent matt bradley. >> jose, you mentioned that international response. the response from here on the official level, it's not much different. we heard the president, the foreign minister and other officials, all of them united in anger. there was just a chorus of condemnation coming from this government, calling this a lie. saying like we heard from u.s., france, turkey, this is just a pretext by the russians to launch their own escalation or maybe even their own nuclear weapon.

now, when you get down to the street level, and we have been driving around kyiv, the capital, all day, nobody is taking cover, nobody expects certainly the ukrainians are detonating a dirty bomb against their own people. they are also not so worried about the russians detonating a weapon. for regular folks around here, you mentioned eight months into the conflict. there is a 600-mile front line

stretching from the northeast of the country down to the southern part of the country along the coast. . for a lot of folks here, they see this as more empty talk from moscow meant to intimidate, not just the military and the politicians but also the public trying to get them to surrender by fear. jose. >> matt bradley in kyiv, extraordinary work, as always. even throughout the weekend, we were together on "nightly news" bringing us the very latest from ukraine. admiral, the dirty bomb, let's talk about that. we just use these terms left and right. what exactly is a dirty bomb? what would be considered a dirty bomb? >> a dirty bomb, jose, is simply a conventional explosion where you've packed around it radioactive material.

9 bomb goes off and the distribution of the radioactive material creates a dirty environment which can make people very sick. they will exposed to high levels of radiation. can have long-term effects. it's concerning but a lesser capability than, say, a tactical nuclear weapon, which is an explosion with tens of thousands times the explosive power of that dirty bomb. the dirty bomb is all about radio activity. the tactical nuclear weapon has a radioactive component to it. but it's really about explosive power. >> what would be the cost benefit analysis for putin to use a dirty bomb and to use the title of your book, "to risk it all." is it something the leader of russia could, you think, actually do? >> i think it's unlikely, jose. but it's a chance the that is

worth understanding, analyzing, preparing for the ukrainians ought to be prepared in case he were to use that. it is ominous, in my view, that he is trodding out this preposterous claim that the ukrainians might use one. that would lead one to believe, he might be thinking of using one but then blame it on the ukrainians. similarly, he could do the same with a chemical weapon. again, i think these chances are in the 10% category. but that's way too high. and i'll agree with matt, it is a sign of desperation on the part of vladimir putin because his ground troops are failing him and failing badly. he is reaching for these other alternatives. let's hope he doesn't decide to take the risk of using a nuclear weapon. >> admiral, i want to turn your focus to china. what will it mean moving forward when it comes to u.s. and china

relations? >> well, the fact that he will be the single, solitary leader, really the ruler of china in a sense simplifies our planning, our thinking. the bad news is, as we see in the case of someone like vladimir putin who has been in power 20 years, power corrupts. absolute power corrupts absolutely. you saw the former leader forcefully escorted, and you are showing it now, striking. this would be like a state of the union where someone walked in and dragged barack obama out of the row tonda as he tried to listen to the speech.

it is how powerful xi has become. we will have to deal with him for many years to come. >> you know, just thinking about the fact that he knew that this was being televised and i guess on purpose wanted to follow the stalinist road map there. i'll tell you, it is really extraordinary. you can't find this video anywhere else. it was scrubbed. this is the new china going forward. >> indeed. it strikes me as orwelian. particular there the public hue mill taeugz is quite remarkable, as you say. it certainly will have a chilling effect on anybody who is thinking about opposing the new ideas, if you will, of president xi. let me close on this, jose, because i get the question a lot. what about taiwan? does all of this mean that xi

will move on taiwan? i think the debacle in ukraine will cause him to pump the brakes. he doesn't know how hard the taiwanese will fight, like the ukrainians. he doesn't know what sanctions could look like. all of that will put a little bit of a pump the brake on him. let's hope so. >> but, as you say, absolute power corrupts absolutely. it's always a pleasure, sir, to see you. thank you for being with us this morning. >> thanks, jose. the trial begins in the trump criminal tax fraud case. what we could hear from the star witness, trump's former cfo. witness, trump's former cfo. alice loves the scent of gain so much, she wished there was a way to make it last longer. say hello to your fairy godmother

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32 past the hour. jury selection is under way in the criminal tax fraud trial of donald trump's company. it was charged in new york with carrying out a 15-year scheme to compensate top executives off the books to help them avoid paying taxes.

the company and its long-time chief financial officer, alan weisselberg were indicted last year following a years-long investigation into the company's practices. he pleaded guilty this past august and agreed to testify against the company. with us now to talk about this, investigative correspondent tim winter outside the courthouse in lower manhattan and paul butler, former federal prosecutor, a law professor at georgetown university and msnbc legal analyst. what can we expect to see during this trial? >> reporter: we're under way, jose. it got started a little after 9:00 a.m. they are discussing is stipulations. prospective jurors will be brought in approximately 10-30. it is expected to last one to two weeks and a month after that for this trial. it is very unusual in that it is not an individual facing charges. it's a corporation.

and the person who is alleged in the indictment involving the trump organization to have received those benefits that you described, the person who is a part of, according to the indictment, doling out the benefits is pleading guilty and going to testify against the trump organization. of course we are stalking about cfo alan weisselberg. we do expect him to be the key witness in this. it is part of his plea agreement that he has to testify against the trump organization, that he has to do so truthfully. and that's the only way he can get the reduced sentence that he has arranged for himself through his attorneys. that's going to be the key thing to watch here. important to note, weisselberg is not going to cooperate against the former president. really legal experts say a tricky balance as far as how hard the trump organization wants to push weisselberg. should be an interesting case to follow. >> tom, what happens if the trump organization is found guilty?

what, you know -- who gets affected? >> reporter: they could pay up to $1.6 million in fines. that's the only impact it could have against the company. they can't have any sort of corporate death penalty it's sometimes referred to, where they have to dissolve assets or leave entirely. there is no monitor. they can independently monitor. that is not part of new york state law. so it really comes down to the potential fine the company could have to pay. it could make it more difficult for them to receive lending? sure, it could. they have been doing private lending in avoiding the bank system already. so i don't know how much, compared to the ag suit which could be a quarter billion in fines, how much this might

impact them, jose. >> yeah. paul, it's certainly unusual in a new york state law does not allow for a corporate monitor to be appointed. what's the point of going after the organization? >> it's for that punishment aspect of criminal law, civil hraul. law. there will be consequences if other people do this. donald trump will probably never appear at this trial. but he is still the star. so all of the potential jurors will have views about him. the judge has to select people who can set aside their personal beliefs and decide the case just based on the evidence in court. that's no easy task, which is why jury selection is anticipated to take two weeks. >> paul, meanwhile, the house

january 6th committee asked for documents and testimony by mid-november. what's the likelihood that we will see any of that? >> it's not going to happen. make no mistake, jose. donald trump is never going to testify before the house about his actions on january 6th. liz cheney says if he agrees to testify live, she still wouldn't be crazy about that. i think, though, politically it will be difficult for the panel to turn down any opportunity to hear from trump. trump and his base would make the case they broadcast hours of incriminating information on television and never let him respond. plus, his testimony will be invaluable for federal prosecutors. every time trump talks, he furtherism indicates himself. that he wants why his lawyers

would never let him cooperate with the house committee. he would take the 5th. he will succeed this time by running out the clock >> paul butler, tom winter, thank you both very much for being with us this morning. the biden administration says it is moving, quote, full speed ahead with its student loan forgiveness program, despite a court order blocking any loan relief. the 8th circuit court of appeals temporarily halted it while it considers an appeal. they had it dismissed by a federal judge thursday. the program unconstitutionally bypasses congress. the biden administration has until today to respond to the order and says obligations are still open at studentaid.gov. up next, steve core knack with will be with us with brand-new polling. what people had to say if the other party's agenda will destroy america. you're watching "jose

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42 past the hour. this morning, we're taking a closer look at the level of interest in these upcoming midterm elections. this election is more important to them than past midterm races. listen to this, 80% of democrats and republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy america as we know it. national political correspondent steve kornacki, what can you tell us about this? >> with numbers like that, jose, it's no wonder we're expecting record-shattering turnout in this 2022 midterm. and that's saying something. because in the last midterm in 2018, we set all sorts of records. we could exceed that here in 2022. let's take you through some of the numbers in the nbc poll. this is the generic ballot.

you just ask, hey, democrats, republicans, who do you want to vote for to control congress? this is the likely voter model. this is the first time in our nbc poll we've used this cycle where you are trying to gauge not just registered voters but trying to look at all the voters and look at who is going to turn out in the midterm. folks are expressing the highest level of interesting, who have historically participated the most. republicans with a one-point advantage in our poll, 48-47 over democrats. what might be more alarming, though, is this. you measure the highest level of interesting in the midterm elections. the overall number is extremely high. 70%. 7 out of 10 say they have the highest level of interest in the midterm elections. that's the biggest number we

have ever measured in this poll at a midterm cycle. you can notice it is not quite evenly distributed. enthusiasm level is a little higher. 78% than it is for republicans than democrats, 69ers. enthusiasm gap could explain the generic ballot. that is the possibility if that manifests on election day, it could be a big advantage there for republicans. it is also, i should add, a bit of a shift from this summer. we've been asking this question, tracking this all year. and you notice in the summer there wasn't as much of an enthusiasm gap between the two parties. they were almost even. this is the wake that tossed out row. democratic enthusiasm nearly matched republicans. now we have seen republicans a little more enthusiastic than democrats. so it's a close, close picture, jose. when you look at that enthusiasm, that right now is

where republicans may have an edge. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. next monday, you can listen to all six episodes of msnbc's newest original podcast, the revolution with steve kornacki wherever you get your podcasts. check out that qr code to go right to it. up next, the intensifying tension between north and south korea. what happened over the weekend that has the south increasing its military readiness. you're watching "jose diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. a. it's the subway series menu. 12 irresistible subs. the most epic sandwich roster ever created. ♪♪ it's subway's biggest refresh yet! the first time your sales reached 100k was also the first time you hit this note... ( screams in joy) save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. with a partner that always puts you first.

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from the network america relies on. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ 49 past the hour. turn now to stories we're following beyond our borders. this morning officials are assessing the damage after hurricane roslyn made land fall along mexico's pacific coast as a powerful cat 3 storm. at least two people were killed. tensions are high on the afd south korea exchanged warning shots when a north korean merchant vessel crossed the sea boundary between the two countries. joining us now is kaori enjoji, former cnbc bureau chief.

what more can you tell us about this? >> reporter: well, north korea and south korea fired warning shots, as you say, in the western waters off the korean peninsula heightening tensions that have been simmering for months now. the area we're talking about is the northern limit line. it is one of the most serious flash points for contention on the korean peninsula. i mean, north korea, itself, doesn't even acknowledge that that border exists. when you take into consideration that north korea has been launching missile tests at an unprecedented pace this year, especially since the end of september with one flying directly over japan earlier on this month and you consider the fact that government officials here in japan, south korea and the u.s. have been warning that north korea might be gearing up for another nuclear test. now, the timing for the next two weeks is going to be critical, jose. we're just coming off the end of

the national congress in china which is one of the biggest ben benefactors for north korea. and you have this deteriorating relationship that the u.s. has with russia because of the invasion and the deterring relationship that the u.s. has with china. security analysts have been saying that north korea likes to make these kinds of provocative moves when there is a wedge between these superpowers and i think that's why people are on full alert as to the possibility of north korea's next provocative move. >> kaori enjoji, thank you so much. good to see you. up next, a record number of people crossing the border. what's behind these record-breaking numbers? you're watching "jose diaz-balart reports." alart repo. since i retired from skiing, i've had trouble falling asleep and staying asleep. you know, insomnia.

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55 past the hour. we have breaking news from minneapolis where one of the other former police officers involved in george floyd's death has agreed to plead guilty. he's agreed to plead guilty to one count of aiding and abetting manslaughter as part of a plea deal in which a charge was dismissed. and now to the southern

border and a new yearly record for the number of people caught crossing the border illegally for the 12 months ending september 30th. cpb said it stopped migrants more than 2.3 million times. that's more than a million over from last fiscal year. homeland security correspondent julia ainsley is with us. what stands out to you? >> for one thing, the nationalities. in the past we had seen drivers from guatemala, central america, those people coming to the united states. now we're seeing an increase in people from cuba, venezuela, you know, jose, because we have been down there at the border together seeing the populations come in. the other thing is that sometimes we're not talking about individual people. when you look at that 2 million number, some people are counted more than once. because of those covid-19 restrictions, migrants are often

pushed back into mexico, particularly those from central america and so they are counted twice because they might make that journey across the border two or three times in a month. they're recounting those people. that's what they're saying about the numbers. another thing to point out, they may soon fall. september was high. over 207,000 people tried to cross the u.s. border -- crossings, not individuals, counted in september. but we now know there are new restrictions that are blocking venezuelans who had been allowed to cross, now many of them, most of them, are being pushed back into mexico under those covid-19 restrictions. it could be that restrictions like that continue to push these numbers down. >> and i mean, the month of september shattered any number record on the books, september was just shattering all records. but it's interesting because the venezuelan reality continues to exist, so does the cuban reality

and nicaraguan reality. it was implemented upon its announcement, do you think that's having an impact on it? and what we're wondering about is all these folks that are being sent on -- back to mexico, there's no agreement to deal with these people in a humane nature in mexico. >> that's right. it's title 42-ing. it's worse in some ways, that remain in mexico policy because they don't have a court date. they have no way to seek asylum in the united states unless these venezuelans have someone in the u.s. who can sponsor them and most of them do not have family members here. they're joining central americans and countless other nationals who haven't been able to claim asylum since the beginning of the pandemic. it's something the biden administration said they want to end, but when they were stopped from doing that last may, they haven't fought hard to get it

lifted. it's being used as an immigration tool rather than a public health tool. how can you make an argument that one nationality might bring covid and another nationality would not? how can it be used to get some nationals and not others? it could bring the numbers down but it will continue to be fought in court. >> thank you so much. it's great seeing you. >> thank you. it will be the houston astros against the philadelphia phillies for this year's world series titles. the astros with back-to-back sweeps this season to take the american league championship. the phillies who entered the postseason as a wild card but have gone a tear defeating the padres taking the national legal championship. game one of the world series begins on friday in houston. that wraps up the hour for me. i'm "jose diaz-balart reports." you can always reach me on twitter, on instagram at