>> that does it for us tonight, now with ten days to go until election day it is time for the countdown with steve kornacki. >> and we are exactly ten days,

19 hours, 59 minutes, and 41 seconds in counting until the first poll closing on election night. we are picking up our countdown to election night right where we left off last friday night, and where we will be every friday night between now and the midterms. that is after tonight, only one more friday night between now and the midterms. it is getting really close, we are inside of two weeks right now to go, and not only is it getting closer on the calendar, but voting is underway in all sorts of states, early voting nearly 20 million, they have already been cast in this midterm election, in the 2018 midterm election, all sorts of records were shattered when it came to turnout.

about 116 million votes were cast in that midterm election when all was said and done. we may be over 120 million when this one is over. numbers that would have been unthinkable years ago, that is of course where politics are right now. so, the biggest campaign news tonight, the democrats, they are bringing out their biggest star. barack obama, who within just the last few hours began a battleground state and georgia. we will get a live report in just a minute. also, that pennsylvania senate debate this week, didn't move the key race forward for republican mehmet oz? we will talk about that. and what is happening on the ground in arizona, and also a deep dive on the battle for the house. all of that is ahead tonight, but let's start with our big picture view. we have been checking in every week on some of the numbers here. the generic ballot, we check it every week, the average of the generic ballot, we want democrats, and republicans to control congress.

we were showing you a republican advantage, on average of just over three points. a week ago, it represented a significant shift in the republicans favor. we were asked at this time, is this the start of a bigger shift, where we will be here a week later, and this thing has really broke for the republicans? it stands exactly seven days later, it is actually coming down just a bit. but you can see it now that it is about two and a half points, 2.6, where does it compare to other recent midterm elections at this point? so that 2.6 advantage, that republicans have right now, you can take a look. 18, 14, ten, 2006, every one of these programs and it up being a wave election. for the opposition party, you can figure that that is the smallest one here, although it is kind of in the ballpark still of 2014.

and a lot of republicans have been saying, and hoping that this mid term ends up like 2014, which was that barack obama -- it is a late forming, late breaking wave. a lot of it really only became apparent on election night. so republicans are open that this is kind of lining up for a repeat of 2014. democrats obviously are hoping, hey, you, know it is a closest one of these that you see, maybe it could get closer in these final ten days. maybe this could be different than what we have become accustomed to in recent midterm elections. that is where things stand. as we mentioned, barack obama, picking the campaign trail. this is something democrats hope will help them in some of these key races. in the home stretch. so, we started tonight in georgia, just outside of atlanta, it is the beginning of a tour that will take in tomorrow, to michigan, the governor's race in michigan also a couple of significant house races, it is going to take them to wisconsin, governor senate race, how about this? and elections close in wisconsin, have you ever heard of that before? the senate and governor's race

in wisconsin both razor-thin, obama will be there heading out to nevada, next tuesday, a week from the election, obviously that senate race is key. some house races in nevada, we are going to have some polling to tell you about from nevada on the house side leader, but barack obama will be there. and before the election, you see both sides of pennsylvania, pennsylvania as you say, we will talk about the senate race in just a few minutes. but in georgia, tonight, where things began, that senate race, we will show you where it stands right now. the polling average, this is something else. in the polling average, herschel walker, the republican, it is very slight but has taken a lead in the polling average over raphael warnock. remember, it is a runoff state, if no one gets to 50% on november 8th, they will move it to december 6th, and they will run that again on december 6th. we see them come to georgia two

years ago, it is not impossible the same thing happens this time. of course, that is former president obama hoping that he'd get warnock to a victory before december 6th, let's take a closer look at that first -- he was in georgia, that is just outside of atlanta, only a few hours ago he began tonight by addressing the news story today, that was a violent attack on house speaker nancy pelosi's husband paul and the couple's home, the speaker was in d.c. at the time, paul is expected to make a full recovery after undergoing surgery for a skull fracture. a suspect has been arrested at a press conference a while ago, the police said the attack was quote, intentional, the motive, still being investigated. here is what the former president said about all of that tonight. >> the pandemic highlighted, and in some cases made worse

problems that we have been struggling with for years. sometimes, it leads them to violence. and erosion of basic civility, and democratic norms in our politics. not just here, but around the world. i want to take a moment just to say a prayer for a friend of mine, mr. paul pelosi. who was attacked. >> and then he turned to the states key races, and here is the message that obama hopes will ultimately convince voters and georgia and in other swing states to vote democratic. >> the fundamental question that you should be asking yourself right now is who will fight for you?

who cares about you? who sees you? who believes in you? that is a choice in the spanish election. who will fight. who will fight for working people who are struggling to pay their bills? listen, listen, inflation is a real problem right now. and by the way, it is not just here in america, it is worldwide. the question you should be asking is, who is actually going to do something about it? the republicans talk a lot about it. but what is their answer? what is their economic policy? i will tell you what it is. because it is the same answer that they have got for everything. they want a gut social program. they want to cut social security, medicare, and then they want to give the rich friends --

who will fight to keep you and your family safe? the republican politicians who want to flood our streets with more guns, who actually voted against more resources for our police departments, it's in somebody who carries around a 40 badge and says that he is in law enforcement? like you as a kid playing cops and robbers? he is going to be loyal to donald trump. he is not really going to be thinking about you, and your needs. and you deserve better! georgia deserves better! >> well, that was barack obama's message tonight and joining us now from college park georgia is nbc news correspondent alison barber. alison, thank you for taking a few minutes. two weeks ago tonight, they were knocked bag had just wrapped up. at that point, we were looking at polling artist in georgia that showed warnock with a slight lead over walker.

certainly there were questions about those allegations about herschel walker paying for an abortion, and questions about how that was going to affect this race. i am curious, obviously with democrats bringing in barack obama, it is an indication that they take the race very seriously. it is no surprise georgia is a close race, but two weeks after that debate, i am curious how you would characterize democrats in georgia, how they are looking at this senate race? >> it is interesting, because if you are in this arena tonight, we were told there were about 7000 people here. he would be forgiven for looking at it, hearing the sound, and thinking the momentum in key races here is on the side of democrats. but you look at the polls, and that is not the reality at all. the reason why former president obama's here is because democrats need the help. he is behind in a gubernatorial race, you mentioned the poll average in the senate race, which is what i focused on covering, and essentially herschel walker -- and neither of them are in the

50% threshold that is necessary in order to avoid a runoff election. and that is why president obama is here, is democrats in the state -- and we'll show up to vote. the timing of his visit is strategic. really voting is already underway. it ends on friday, this weekend is the last weekend of early voting in this state, and souls to the polls, which is a very big effort for democrats, that is going to take place on sunday. big picture, we are 11 days out. so they are bringing him in at a very critical time. and we see in the polls, just how close this is. and one thing that was noticeable, and notable to me on the stage tonight was listening to former president obama, how much time he spent talking about the georgia senate race. i think it gives you an indication, perhaps, of where democrats are thinking maybe they can nudge the poll numbers. it also gives you a sense of how close that race is. i was talking to chuck todd the other day and he brought up the

question, the idea of whether or not georgia is really a swing state, or if it is just a reflection of how polarized this country is. and i have to tell, you in the last week and a half, it has been interesting to be on the campaign trail with the senate confidence because both -- and warnock has been campaigning in district that will hold on election day. it seems like they're focused for both democrats and republicans, at least in the georgia senate race, it's not unconvincing, but convincing their most loyal basis to get out, and to get their friends, and to take them out to vote as well. >> all right, alison barber, on the ground there in georgia. just outside, thank you alison for joining us, appreciate that. now, i want to bring in jim psaki, former white house press secretary and no msnbc host. jen, thank you for joining us. >> and i'm excited to see the board in person. >> i'm excited to show it off to anybody. whoever is excited to check out this board. thank you for joining us, i'm

curious, barack obama, in terms of national democrats, has proven himself, obviously, winning elections twice. he's extremely good in motivating voters to get out and vote for him. his track record of going out on the campaign trail in transferring that energy to other democratic candidates, i am talking about, i think the same week last year he was in virginia, and terry mcauliffe was in trouble, and democrats were excitedly talking about barack obama coming in and terry mcauliffe lost. i remember the closing days of 2016, he was going to help hillary clinton. is there a challenge here? can you diagnose it? why he has struggled to transfer that support to other democrats, and is there any reason to think it would be different? >> i think it is really hard for any surrogate, whether it is president obama, or a celebrity, or a rock star to transfer their support, and love to another candidate. but it is still worth trying, which is why he is out there.

because as allison was saying, this is the pivotal, final stretch here in georgia. there is only a couple more days of early voting. barack obama is still very popular. i think his popularity is almost 60% in the country. and he knows how to send a direct message with a little humor. he brought the jokes tonight. and that is exactly what he will do tonight, in a couple of other states. he does like to go out and campaign when people are already voting, because he likes to light that fire. and this is kind of the light the fire season for democrats, and we will see, even if it is 20 people who go out and vote tonight, tomorrow, the next day, that is still a victory. i think it is hard for any elected official campaign official. >> this got some attention yesterday, chuck schumer, the democratic leader of the senate, and countered the president biden on the tarmac, delicious play that exchange, because it got picked up here. >> [inaudible].

>> i've heard from folks that speculating, schumer has been in politics forever, he must have known that that might be picked up. he is trying to send some kind of message. i guess that you heard, my first question is is not at all possible? i can't imagine what the message would be. and if not, he is expressing a real concern there about georgia. what do you think is happening in georgia? >> look, i think that it is

always, it was always going to be a very close race. i think if you look at the numbers, it looks very likely that it is headed towards a runoff in december, we are going to have a lot of political conversations over thanksgiving, that is what that means. a lot of what he was saying in that moment, which i do not believe was an intentional one, there are a lot of ways to get information out, he also showed him socks, that was a funny moment, it is consistent with what i have heard from other democrats. a couple of weeks ago in about it was feeling concerning, it is not feeling a bit better over the last couple of days, in georgia, they clarified a bit that his comments were taken out of context by what he was saying to the president. but there is no doubt that it is close, it is going to be close, and yes it is defying logic that herschel walker is where he is in the polls, and i think that you heard him saying that as well. >> we showed where barack obama is going to be over the next couple of weeks, in terms of the current president we do have, he is in pennsylvania tonight, it is his native state, he is going to be there with barack obama before the

election. but here is a time magazine piece on this, this captures, it says biden prefers delaware to the campaign trail, and democrats are not exactly complaining, welcome to 2022, when a compromised candidate from 2020 is now seen as an albatross almost everywhere, except his home state of delaware, and pennsylvania. even there, he is still underwater. i did see, he is also going to maryland, maryland not exactly a swing state, what does that say? that barack obama is out there, and joe biden isn't? >> i think barack obama would say that when you are the former president, you are a little less under the spotlight in terms of people criticizing you, and his popularity is higher than it was when he was president. i think for president biden, his objective is keeping the senate, and fighting for the house, i don't think that he is worried about how many campaign trips he is checking off a box, he has gone and done fundraising events, just on a lot of those privately. that is true. but his objective, and the objective of the white house

has to do everything that can be helpful, that includes talking about a lot of these accomplishments that are helpful to democrats that are trying to show their voters, look, we are doing something about inflation, we are trying to bring your cost down. we are trying to lower the cost of prescription drugs. and he has been doing that a lot as well. >> all right, jen psaki, thank you for taking a few minutes joining us. i appreciate that. coming up, the debate in pennsylvania. you might have watched it, you definitely heard about it. will it affect the tight fetterman oz race as a race the democrats badly need if they are going to hang on to the senate? i will talk to rachael hourly about that and more. at and more. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. with skyrizi 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months, after just 2 doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to. ♪♪ ♪ it's my moment so i just gotta say ♪

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the first poll closing on election night ten days away, so we showed you the big picture, national scene there with the generic ballot, now

let's check in. we have been doing this every week, let's check in for the battle of control of the senate. 50/50 right now. republicans in need of a net gain of one seat. so we have been showing you this chart every week as well. first you start with the five most vulnerable democratic seats, again, a little bit of movement here where georgia, now, is the state, the democratic seat where republicans lead in the polls. we just mentioned this last block, herschel walker, the republican, very slight lead on average here. but herschel walker, leading were not in the poll right now. potentially, again, there is that whole issue, the 50% in georgia that we talked, about the potential runoff, but potentially georgia maybe representing the republicans best chance at a pick up right now. right behind that, you have got arizona, mark kelly, the democrat continuing the lead down to about a point and a half. nevada, capturing cortez, and a favorable poll. she got it from the university, we will move the average there, colorado sitting there as well. the whole key to this is for

every seat from this column that republicans win, obviously democrats would love to run the table, but for everyone that republicans get in this column, it must be matched by democrats by a win in this column. if they are going to keep the senate, keep it at 50 50 to keep it at the tiebreak or. if right now, let's just say republicans were to succeed in winning georgia, herschel walker over there, democrats would be on this list, they would have to win one of these republican held seats. there is, one this has been the story, as long as we have been doing these shows, it has been the story all year. it looms above all others as a target for democrats, it is pennsylvania, it is the state joe biden won in 2020, it is the state the democratic nominee this summer averaged by nearly nine points, that number for fetterman has come all the way down to just over a point. we are now only starting to get polls after that debate that

was held this week, oz and fetterman squaring off, the only time they did so, that debate has sparked a lot of discussion and that debate is also playing out on the airwaves now, in pennsylvania, in the final weeks of this campaign. the fetterman campaign, for instance, seized on this answer from the debate, on the subject of abortion for mehmet oz. >> this is who doctor oz wanton charge of women's health care decisions -- >> i want women, doctors, local, political leaders. >> local, political leaders. local, political leaders. >> oz would like a politician like doug mastriano ban abortion without exceptions. even in cases of rape, incest, for life of the mother. oz is too extreme for pennsylvania. >> i am john fetterman, and i approve this message. >> on the other side, the trump super pac went out with this new at the day after the debate

called just not right. >> the worst border crisis in american history, the worst crime wave in decades, the threat of nuclear annihilation, our economy collapsing, joe biden and john fetterman aren't up to these challenges. biden is stumbling around, and fetterman just isn't right. >> biden and fetterman, clueless, [inaudible]. >> and joining us now, david plouffe, the former campaign manager and white house senior adviser to president barack obama, he is an msnbc political analyst, and ritual hourly, the chief of -- thanks to both of you for being with us, david, let me start with you. so, that add that we just played there from the trump aligned super pac, it did not actually feature any of the clips from the debate, but it is certainly playing on

something that you have heard in the wake of that debate, concerns about john fetterman, his recovery from the stroke, and the performance that he delivered in that debate. i am curious how you look at that as a factor in this race. over the summer it was nine points, now it is one. you think that slippage had something to do with his performance on the campaign trail? and how do you think what voters saw in the debate this week, when they will see an act like this, do you think that will affect how they vote in this race? >> my sense is that the tightening that we have seen, i would say the same thing for georgia, both walker and oz were well below what they were ever going to get once people voted. so i think that they were both performing for early, you have a lot of republicans, republicans gaining independents and polls saying that they were undecided. but they have come, home and i think that is why the races -- now fetterman has taken a lot

of, i mean, i thought that that just shows a terrible, stereotypically terrible -- there have been other ads that have been more effective, talking about other issues that i think that has probably been more of the issue, i think that his performance on the campaign trail, or the debate. you know, my guess is that this is a very close race, there is not that many undecided left, so i don't think that you are going to see any seat change because of the debate. now, fetterman campaign has obviously tried to have oz really, deeply unpopular comment that local, political leader should be involved with women's health care decisions. obviously, the outside trying to touch more on his performance. i don't think so, i think we are headed to a super close race in pennsylvania. one question there is, if shapiro does not win by a large margin, that is going to be very important. it is heading to a victory of some margin. i think it could be a crucial factor. but i understand why the debate got so much attention.

but i really doubt at the end of the day that it is going to be the driver of the outcome. >> rich, i am curious from your standpoint, you think that debate is going to affect the outcome? of got this thing back down, negative advertising, largely on crime, and it is sad about eight point -- for a while there. what can we do -- this is going to be a close race. it could beat razor-thin one way or the other. i don't think people are prepared to see what they saw from fetterman, the spin from fetterman, his campaign, he wishes it were together here or there, it was much worse than that. and it is the kind of thing that people talk about, and they wonder about, and they -- a big part of being a senator is talking, listening, arguing, debating, and his recovery is

just not what it was portrayed us. >> let me ask you about a point that david was making, you look at that governor's race in pennsylvania, and the polling there shows joshua pirro the democrat, well ahead. and i look at pennsylvania, and i look at why did donald trump carry it in 2016, and then lose it in 2020. and the answer, when you look at the map here, it just comes screaming at you, the suburbs right outside of philadelphia where you got these voters who did not like donald trump, and right now, by all indications of the polling, they are not to found of democrats. in that debate, oz seemed, when he was pressed on it, he seemed to go out of his way to endorse trump for 2024. and i see that he is going to do a rally with trump in pennsylvania on the saturday before the election, is he risking the very voters that he needs the suburban voters, they may not want to vote for

democrats but is he aligning himself too closely with trump? >> yeah, there is no doubt, trump is a double edged sword, you see, mastriano, -- just way over identified with stop the steal stuff, and has no hope off his closing message in philadelphia has been a moderate one. you have to work with other, is we all have our part to play, oz is not a natural politician. he's not a natural choice for pennsylvania. he has been a hard worker, he has been a learner, he has pretty good campaign staff, and that is why he is a bit ahead of the moment i think. >> if democrats end up needing to flip a seat and they fall short in pennsylvania, is it a big drop off from pennsylvania

to the next one? >> first, the question that you asked, let's look at what youngkin did with trump. very careful, and you can think about what youngkin was trying to do in the suburbs out of washington, very similar to what you just talked about, what odds needs to do. so we are just outside philadelphia, that is a big plays, but also outside of pittsburgh. so i am very puzzled by that. understand trump may help with turn out a bit but i think it is risky. pennsylvania's clearly are at the top of the list. i think that you look at ohio, that is being close, but again, being 40 6:45, it is not at 50 so north carolina has been -- so i think that the list you showed on the right side of your chart, clearly pennsylvania as a must-win state. nearly the democrats are going to run the table in all the races on the left. but you cannot count on that. so, you know, it cannot be more important. we could be surprised, --

underperform what a republican would normally get in a race like that. but will it be enough? i am doubtful about that despite the campaign that ryan has run. >> a lot of folks, remember, where the polls landed and 16 in ohio, and where the actual result ended up, david, rich, thank you for joining us. i appreciate both of you. coming up, a state that is also crucial to the battle for the senate this year, and to the white house two years from now. one where republicans are -- more closely tethered to donald trump than any other battleground. we are taking a close look on what is going on in arizona. next. technically when enamel is gone, you cannot get it back. but there are ways you can repair it. i'm excited about pronamel repair because it penetrates deep into the tooth to help actively repair acid-weakened enamel. i recommend pronamel repair to my patients.

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poll closing on election night continues. okay, we were talking about the dynamic in pennsylvania where there is a split right now potentially forming where the governor's race, josh shapiro, the democrat comfortably in front in that race, the senate race, pretty much that even in pennsylvania. the possibility of a split ticket result, a democrat winning the governor's race, a republican winning the -- or there is a potentially surprising split ticket development. let's go out to arizona, and here is where it works in

arizona. take a look at the senate race here. this is where the democrats are defending a seat, mark kelly, the democratic incumbent being challenged by republican blake masters. , now the polling is tightened, it is very close, the average is only about a point and a half. but mark elliot, the democrat, continues to lead and the polling here in arizona overall. the polling average over blake masters. that is the senate race. here is a race for governor, closely watched race, kari lake, the republican is actually leading by about four points on average in this race. you've got the democrat leading in the senate race, the republican leading indeed gubernatorial race, and of course the extra layer of this is kari lake, closely, closely has tethered herself to donald trump, to donald trump's rhetoric about the 2020 election, she ran in the primary with a lot of, frankly, members of her party at the national level, thinking that she represented the weaker, potential nominee. that this would be given the governor's race to the

democrats, and here is lake outperforming blake masters. blake masters also ran with trump's endorsement in the primary. but lake is out performing her democratic opponent, meanwhile masters is trying to play catch up in the senate race. so, you have a bit of a potential split to here in arizona, two very close races. so what is going on there in arizona? joining us now from phoenix, nbc news correspondent -- i wonder if you could talk a little bit about that dynamic. it has been surprising to a lot of people who watched kari lake in the primary, and has watched the general election campaign. that she has taken this lead, what is the account where blake masters is not tracking with kari lake? >> nobody here in the state -- that she is doing whatever she can to lift up, not only down with the secretary of state candidate, attorney general

candidate, but also lift up the senate candidate. she has been holding campaign rallies every single night over the last couple of weeks. including here, in rally in arizona where she is dressing up does -- but her guest here is blake masters, for all of the events that are at these rallies, blake masters has been attending most of them with her, that is where you see this play out in the polling here. she has a charisma that has appealed to a large swath of american voting electorate that was frankly turned off by the likes of donald trump. that is where you have seen katie hobbs, democrats, even the likes of liz cheney who went up on the airways today with a half 1 million dollar ad buy trying to impress upon voters here that kari lake is somebody who still calls for the decertification of the 2020 election. that she is an election denier and that she is a threat, somebody who has even defended

the 15-week abortion ban here in the state of arizona, because democrats here, katie hobbs can see this as a path forward. if they were able to convince enough conservatives, anti trump conservatives in dependents here that katie hobbs is somebody that they can justify voting for, and at the same time turn out democrats in the numbers needed, whether it be on the abortion issue, that they have a way to make a crack at kari lake, and frankly, mark kelly continue to have a broad appeal to the electorate here. and the candidates are just not able to appeal to a -- in the same way that kari lake has been able to. >> yes. an interesting dynamic there. ken? -- in phoenix, thank, you appreciate that report. staying in arizona, staying in maricopa county, staying in phoenix, nbc anchor, ali velshi in phoenix.

he has spent the day talking to arizona voters. ali, thank you for joining, us we appreciate it. so, we were just giving us the lay of the land here in the governor, and the senate race here. i am curious, what are you picking up on the ground from folks in arizona? >> there are at a rally, with people who are high politically motivated, i spent my day with six arizonans, people from right around here, from across the political spectrum, there were three who identified as republicans, three who identified as democrats, and i will say, you know this very well, steve, there is a long history about republicanism and conservativism in the state. the three that i spoke to have all worked with, or for john mccain. this is what one of them told me about election denialism, and how it is influencing his own vote as a republican. >> the most important issue in arizona, when i am voting, it is protecting the essence of

our democracy, and we are for worse, ground zero of this election denier stuff. the fraud, the audit that they did with the ballot in the 2020 elections. the person is not 100% honest -- >> you are speaking as a republican. >> yes. i am technically registered republican. >> so, there you go, that is a republican. by the, way all republicans on my panel have said that they will not go vote for election deniers. on the other hand, as you, said they have a 15-week abortion ban that goes back to a very, very old time in the state like in wisconsin, and in michigan, there is a woman i spoke to who had native and latina backgrounds, she was queer, she is a person of color, and she says that there is a lot in

this election that she feels outside of, and attacked by. she is, quite young, 21 years old, here is what she told me. >> i think what is motivating me right now, going voting, this is my first midterm election. and the big thing that i didn't think would be an issue as misinformation. and denying something that is so simple and basic. at the end of the day, i am what most people target us, i am what is -- a queer person with a uterus, and i am of color, and it is constantly that my rights are being pushed away. >> so, you would appreciate this a lot, steve. i have people from across the political spectrum. but they were united in this concept of what citizenship looks like. what pluralism looks like. what civic engagement looks like. the fact that ballot races are very important, and arizona has got a political history of representing people who they

think is at risk right now, all of their messages to everyone, please go vote, don't get out the next morning and be fascinated by the fact that some of these people won an election in arizona if you didn't vote. it was a very eye-opening conversation that we will have a lot on tv in this weekend. >> all right, ali velshi in the heart of maricopa county, thank you for joining us. and as ali just said, he's going to have a lot more from arizona tomorrow starting at 8 am eastern time. right here on msnbc. and when we come back, democrats face a herculean task in trying to hold their house majority. we are going to take a look at exactly what it would take for them to pull that off, and some surprising new poll numbers. mbers. technically when enamel is gone, you cannot get it back. but there are ways you can repair it. i'm excited about pronamel repair because it penetrates deep into the tooth to help actively repair acid-weakened enamel.

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tick away to election night, we turn our attention to the battle for control of the house of representatives. so this is the map that the 2020 election produced, a democratic hold of the house of representatives. biden dug up being by very slim margin. remember, republicans did not win the presidency in 2020 but they made gains in the house. and they come in 2022, they come into this general election eating and gain, republicans do, of just 95 seats --

would give republicans control. history suggests, as the opposition party, they should be able to get. that joe biden's approval ratings suggest they should be able to get that. democrats are hoping to defy history. we actually got today some polling -- we haven't gotten a ton of polling when it comes to key house races. we got some polling in a little bit of some surprising developments, i think -- new york times and siena did this in four congressional districts. and let me take you through them. for that are going to be crucial for the house -- when is the third district of kansas. this is centered in the suburbs on the kansas side of kansas city. sherisse davis is the democratic incumbent. she was elected in 2018. this is a district that was actually redrawn this year, a redistricting year. it got less democratic in the redraw. there was a lot of thought that david was going to be a dangerous, vulnerable democrats. she may still prove to be. this is just the poll. we will see what happens on election night. but if you are a democrat,

you've got to be really encouraged to see this -- a 14-point advantage for sure is david's. this is a district that joe biden carried by five points in 2020. take a look also. the first district of nevada -- this is a district that change dramatically in redistricting. dina titus is a democratic incumbent there. this was a very safe democratic district, and overwhelmingly democratic district, with what the democrats did in nevada did was they broke up titus's district and they tried to parcel out some of the heavily democratic areas that other districts in nevada, in an effort to win more seats, to shore up more seats in nevada -- so, titus has been saying, this puts me at risk. she is in a tie race here. this is uncharted territory they have already been in such a competitive race. it's a tie, race, though, it's one democrats need to hold if they are going to win the house. -- again, lines redrawn by the democrat democrats in new mexico. -- one point leading this poll in the democrats. democrats badly need to win

this one if they are going to pull out a surprise in the house. and how about matt cartwright? democratic pennsylvania. one of the only democrats to win in 2020 that voted for donald trump at the same time. and cartwright is leading by six points in what is pretty much -- it changed a little bit -- but pretty much the same district. so, overall, for democrats, history is not good for them when it comes to control of the house. these polls, though, are somewhat encouraging, i would say, for democrats. and by the way, speaking of control of the house -- on election night, where we going to look first? 7 pm, our first read out of the house is going to be in virginia. -- second and the seventh, in particular, two democratic incumbents elected in 2018, are facing challenging reelection's. i think this could be bellwethers to start at the election night. someone who has spent some time in both districts recently, nbc news capitol hill correspondent ali vitale. -- the seventh district -- northern virginia -- what did you find out there?

>> steve, great minds think alike. because i thought the same thing, which is why i spent time in these two districts, because we are going to see these results in election night. and they are bellwethers, which, frankly, when i talked with both spanberger and luria, yes, they are aware that's how we are looking at them, but they would argue that they have always been running in tight, sweeney districts. spanberger is arguing that even back to 2014 when it was held by eric counter. and of course, luria saying that all of the contours of her district, the issues that she have is running on our different now and shaped heavily by 2020. but at the same time, she is used to running in a tight race. i think the fascinating thing for me is, i was there in lori's district, yes, we talk about a lot of issues that were there in polling crime,, inflation, the economy, but what it luria says is a hinge issue in her district is the january six committee and the work that she has done to

protect democracy after what we saw during the insurrection. but when i talk to voters, they have two deary different voters when -- republicans, i will show you one of them and then back when where the democratic, saying listen to how this went. >> how do you feel about the work that luria has done on the january 6th committee. >> i think it's atrocious. i have family that went up to january 6th, i have friends that went up there. >> i can understand people standing up for the rights and everything like that, but having an assault on our democracy, it is ridiculous. and to think that the election was stolen, absolutely ridiculous. >> steve, i think the larger question that i am looking at -- and i listened to ali velshi's reporting, ivan's reporting -- the election denialism threat is going to be very fascinating for us to watch on election night, because the big question that i have been asking is, if elaine luria is right, and

people who don't believe that the election was stolen -- and people who believe that the election was stolen don't vote for her -- what does that say about where the country is right now? we are going to find out in just about ten days. steve. >> all right, ali vitali, who is just in these key districts. thank, you ali, for that. and we will be right back. we will be right back. ed by real stories of bipolar depression. i just couldn't find my way out of it. the lows of bipolar depression can take you to a dark place. latuda could make a real difference in your symptoms. latuda was proven to significantly reduce bipolar depression symptoms. and in clinical studies, had no substantial impact on weight. this is where i want to be. call your doctor about sudden behavior changes or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. report fever, confusion, stiff or uncontrollable muscle movements, which may be life threatening or permanent. these aren't all the serious side effects. now i'm back where i belong. ask your doctor if latuda is right for you. pay as little as zero dollars

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