in a position to be the voice for the voiceless. >> it's a responsibility he said that he takes to heart. >> at this point, it's not all about me having a light to shine on my situation. it's about thousands of others that are caught up in the situation. how can we fix young black man going to jail for frivolous reasons. other young children growing up without fathers and at homes. >> what would you say to them in general, for folks out relative or cause -- >> i would say let's continue, let's retire the free mcneill hashtag, and make it hashtag justice reform. >> that's all for this edition of dateline, i'm natalie morales, thank you for watching. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ >> and we are exactly ten, days 19, hours 59 minutes, and 41 seconds, and counting until the first poll closing on election night. we are picking up our countdown to election night, right where we left off last friday night, and where we will be everybody tonight, between now and the midterms. and that is after tonight, only one more friday night. between now and the midterms, it's getting really close, we are inside of two weeks right now to go. and not only is it getting closer on the calendar but voting is underway! and all sorts of states, early voting net now nearly 20 million, 18 million votes already been cast in this midterm election. in the 2018 midterm election, also it's a records were shattered when i came to turn out. about 116 million votes were cast in that midterm election when all was said and done. we may be over 120 million when this one is over. numbers that would have been unthinkable years ago. but that is of course where politics are right now.

so, the biggest campaign use tonight? democrats, they are bringing out their biggest star. brock obama with just the last few hours, began the battleground state tour in georgia. we're gonna get a live report from the peach state and just a minute. also, did that pennsylvania senate debate this week move that key race towards republican mehmet oz? we're gonna talk about that and what's happening on the ground in arizona and also, a deep dive on the battle for the house. all of that is on the board tonight, but let's start with our big picture view, we've been checking in every way for some of the numbers here, this is the generic ballot, we check this every week, the average of the generic ballot when you ask folks if you want democrats or republicans to control congress. we were showing you a republican advantage, on average of just over three points. couple of significant

house races, it is going to take them to wisconsin, governor senate race, how about this? and elections close in wisconsin, have you ever heard of that before? it stands exactly seven days later, it is actually coming down just a bit. but you can see it now that it is about two and a half points, 2. 6, where does it compare to other recent midterm elections at this point? so that 2. 6 advantage, that republicans have right now, you can take a look. 18, 14, ten, 2006, every one of these programs and it up being a wave election. for the opposition party, you can see here that that is the smallest one here, although it is kind of in the ballpark still of 2014. and a lot of republicans have been saying, and hoping that this mid term ends up like 2014, which was that barack obama second midterm it is a late forming, late breaking wave. a lot of it really only became apparent on election night. so republicans are open that this is kind of lining up for a repeat of 2014. democrats

obviously are hoping, hey, you, know it is the closest one of these that you see, maybe it could get closer in these final ten days. maybe this could be different than what we have become accustomed to in recent midterm elections. that is where things stand. as we mentioned, barack obama, hitting the campaign trail. this is something democrats hope will help them in some of these key races. in the home stretch. so, we started tonight in georgia, just outside of atlanta, it is the beginning of a tour that will take in tomorrow, to michigan, the governor's race in michigan also a couple of significant house races, it is going to take them to wisconsin, governor senate race, how about this? and elections close in wisconsin, have you ever heard of that before? the senate and governor's race in wisconsin both razor-thin, obama will be there heading out to nevada, next tuesday, a week from the election, obviously that senate race is key. some house races in nevada, we are going to have some polling to tell you about from nevada on the house side

leader, but barack obama will be there. and before the election, you see both sides of pennsylvania, pennsylvania as you say, we will talk about the senate race in just a few minutes. but in georgia, tonight, where things began, that senate race, we will show you where it stands right now. the polling average, this is something else that changed this week. in the polling average, herschel walker, the republican, it is very slight but has taken a lead in the polling average over raphael warnock. remember, in georgia, it is a runoff state, if no one gets to 50% on november 8th, they will move it to december 6th, and they will run that again on december 6th. we see them come to georgia two years ago, it is not impossible the same thing happens this time. of course, that is former president obama hoping that he'd get warnock to a victory before december 6th, let's take a closer look at that first stop on the former president's

campaign tour, as we, said he was in college port, georgia, that's just outside of atlanta, only a few hours ago -- he began tonight by addressing the news story today, that was a violent attack on house speaker nancy pelosi's husband paul at the couple's home, the speaker was in d. c. at the time, paul is expected to make a full recovery after undergoing surgery for a skull fracture. a 42 year old suspect has been arrested at a press conference a while ago, the police said the attack was quote, intentional, the motive though still being investigated. here is what the former president said about all of that tonight. >> the pandemic highlighted, and in some cases made worse problems that we have been struggling with for years. sometimes, it leads them to violence and despair. an

erosion of basic civility, and democratic norms in our politics. not just here, but around the world. i want to take a moment just to say a prayer for a friend of mine, mr. paul pelosi. who was attacked. >> and then he turned to the states key races, and here is the message that obama hopes will ultimately convince voters and georgia and in other swing states to vote democratic. >> the fundamental question that you should be asking yourself right now is who will fight for you? who cares about you? who sees you? who believes in you? that is a choice in this election. who will fight.

who will fight for working people who are struggling to pay their bills? listen, listen, inflation is a real problem right now. and by the way, it is not just here in america, it is worldwide. the question you should be asking is, who is actually going to do something about it? the republicans talk a lot about it. but what is their answer? what is their economic policy? i will tell you what it is. because it is the same answer that they have got for everything. they want to gut social programs. they want to cut social security, medicare, and then they want to give the rich friends a tax cut -- who will fight to keep you and your family safe? the republican politicians who want to flood our streets with more guns, who actually voted against more resources for our police departments, it's in

somebody who carries around a 40 badge and says that he is in law enforcement? [applause] [noise] like he's a kid playing cops and robbers? he is going to be loyal to donald trump. he is not really going to be thinking about you, and your needs. and you deserve better! georgia deserves better! [noise] [applause] >> well, that was barack obama's message tonight and joining us now from college park georgia is nbc news correspondent alison barber. alison, thank you for taking a few minutes. we were talking to you, the raphael warnock and herschel walker debates. at that point, we were looking at polling artist in georgia that showed warnock with a slight lead over walker. certainly there were questions about those allegations about herschel walker paying for an abortion, and questions about how that was going to affect this race. i am curious, obviously whwn democrats bringing in barack obama, it is an indication that they take the race very seriously. it is

no surprise georgia is a close race, but two weeks after that debate, i am curious how you would characterize democrats in georgia, how they are looking at this senate race? >> it is interesting, because if you were in this arena tonight, we were told there were about 7000 people here. he would be forgiven for looking at it, hearing the sound, and thinking the momentum in key races here is on the side of democrats. but you look at the polls, and that is not the reality at all. the reason why former president obama's here is because democrats need the help. stacy abrhams is behind in a gubernatorial race, you mentioned the poll average in the senate race, which is what i focused on covering, and essentially herschel walker and rwanda and the statistical tie and neither of them at that 50%, at or above, that the 50% threshold that is necessary in order to avoid a runoff election. and that is why president obama is here, is democrats in the state are

hoping that they will energize their base, and show up to vote. the timing of his visit is strategic. early voting is already underway. it ends on friday, this weekend is the last weekend of early voting in this state, and souls to the polls, which is a very big effort for democrats, that is going to take place on sunday. big picture, we are 11 days out. so they are bringing him in at a very critical time. and we see in the polls, just how close this is. and one thing that was noticeable, and notable to me on the stage tonight listening to former president obama, how much time he spent talking about the georgia senate race. i think it gives you an indication, perhaps, of where democrats are thinking maybe they can nudge the poll numbers. it also gives you a sense of how close that race is. i was talking to chuck todd the other day and he brought up the question, the idea of whether or not georgia is really a swing state, or if it is just a reflection of how polarized this country is. and i have to tell, you in the last week and a half, it has been interesting to be on the campaign trail with the senate candidates because both walker

and warnock have been campaigning in districts that will absolutely hold on election day. it seems like they're focused for both democrats and republicans, at least in the georgia senate race, it's not unconvincing, but convincing their most loyal basis to get out, and to get their friends, and to take them out to vote as well. steve? >> >> all right, alison barber, on the ground there in georgia. just outside, thank you alison for joining us, appreciate that. now, i want to bring in jenn psaki, former white house press secretary and now msnbc host. jen, thank you for joining us. >> and i'm excited to see the board in person. >> i'm excited to show it off to anybody. whoever is excited to check out this board. and it worked, so is a good bonus. >> it's a good step. thank you for joining us, i'm curious, barack obama, in terms of national democrats, has proven himself, obviously, winning elections twice. he's extremely good at motivating voters to get out and vote for him. his track record of going out on the campaign trail and transferring that energy to

other democratic candidates, i am talking about, i think the same week last year he was in virginia, and terry mcauliffe was in trouble, and democrats were excitedly talking about barack obama coming in and terry mcauliffe lost. i remember the closing days of 2016, he was going to help hillary clinton. >> yeah, the night before! >> is there a challenge here? can you diagnose it? why he has struggled to transfer that support to other democrats, and is there any reason to think it would be different this year? >> i think it is really hard for any surrogate, whether it is president obama, or a celebrity, or a rock star to transfer their support, and love to another candidate. but it is still worth trying, which is why he is out there. because as allison was saying, this is the pivotal final stretch here in georgia. there is only a couple more days of early voting. barack obama is still very popular. i think his popularity is almost 60% in the country. and he knows how to

send a direct message with a little humor. he brought the jokes tonight. and that is exactly what he will do tonight, in a couple of other states. he does like to go out and campaign when people are already voting, because he likes to light that fire. and this is kind of the light the fire season for democrats, and we will see, even if it is 20 people who go out and vote tonight, tomorrow, the next day, that is still a victory. i think it is hard for any elected official campaign official. >> this got some attention yesterday, chuck schumer, the democratic leader of the senate, encountered the president biden on the tarmac, let's just play that exchange, because it got picked up here. >> [inaudible]. [interpreter] [interpreter]

[inaudible] >> i've heard from folks that speculating, schumer he's been in politics forever, he must have known that that might be picked up. he is trying to send some kind of message. i guess that you heard, my first question is is not at all possible? i can't imagine what the message would be. and if not, he is expressing a real concern there about georgia. what do you think is happening in georgia? >> look, i think that it is always, it was always going to be a very close race. i think if you look at the numbers, it looks very likely that it is headed towards a runoff in december, we are going to have a lot of political conversations over thanksgiving, that is what that means. a lot of what he was saying in that

hot mic moment, which i do not believe was an intentional one, there are a lot of ways to get information out, he also showed him socks, that was a funny moment, it is consistent with what i have heard from other democrats. a couple of weeks ago in nevada was feeling concerning, it is now feeling a bit better over the last couple of days, in georgia, they clarified a bit that his comments were taken out of context by what he was saying to the president. but there is no doubt that it is close, it is going to be close, and yes it is defying logic that herschel walker is where he is in the polls, and i think that you heard him saying that as well. >> we showed where barack obama is going to be over the next couple of weeks, in terms of the current president, we do have, he is in pennsylvania tonight, it is his native state, he is going to be there with barack obama before the election. but here is a time magazine piece on this, this captures, it says biden prefers delaware to the campaign trail, and democrats are not exactly complaining, welcome to 2022, when a compromised candidate from 2020 is now seen as an albatross almost everywhere, except his home state of delaware, and pennsylvania.

even there, he is still underwater. i did see, he is also going to maryland, maryland not exactly a swing state, what does that say? that barack obama is out there, this expansively, and joe biden isn't? >> i think barack obama would say that when you are the former president, you are a little less under the spotlight in terms of people criticizing you, and his popularity is higher than it was when he was president. i think for president biden, his objective is keeping the senate, and fighting like hell for the house, i don't think that he is worried about how many campaign trips he is checking off a box, what he has done and done fundraising events, just on a lot of those privately. that is true. but his objective, and the objective of the white house has to do everything that they can do to be helpful, that includes talking about a lot of these accomplishments that are helpful to democrats that are trying to show their voters, look, we are doing something about inflation, we are trying

to bring your cost down. we are trying to lower the cost of prescription drugs. and he has been doing that a lot as well. >> all right, jen psaki, thank you for taking a few minutes joining us. i appreciate that. coming up, the debate in pennsylvania. you might have watched it, you definitely heard about it. will it affect the tight fetterman oz race as a race the democrats badly need if they are going to hang on to the senate? i will talk to rich lowry about that and more. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ washed all day without heavy perfumes? try downy light in-wash freshness boosters. it has long-lasting light scent, no heavy perfumes, and no dyes. finally, a light scent that lasts all day. downy light! bipolar depression. it made me feel trapped in a fog. this is art inspired by real stories of bipolar depression. i just couldn't find my way out of it. the lows of bipolar depression can take you to a dark place. latuda could make a real difference in your symptoms. latuda was proven to significantly reduce bipolar depression symptoms. and in clinical studies, had no substantial impact on weight.

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chart every week too. first you start with the five most vulnerable democratic seats, again, a little bit of movement here where georgia, now, is the state, the democratic seat where republicans lead in the polls. we just mentioned this last block, herschel walker, the republican, very slight lead on average here. but herschel walker, leading were not in the poll right now. potentially, again, there is that whole issue, the 50% in georgia that we talked, about the potential runoff, but potentially georgia maybe representing the republicans best chance at a pick up right now. right behind that, you have got arizona, mark kelly, the democrat continuing the lead down to about a point and a half. nevada, capturing cortez, and a favorable poll. she got it from the university, we will move the average there, colorado sitting there as well. the whole key to this is for every seat from this column that republicans win, obviously democrats would love to run the table, but for everyone that republicans get in this column, it must be matched by democrats by a win in this column. if they are going to keep the senate, keep it at 50 50 to keep it at the tiebreak or. if right now, let's just say republicans were to succeed in winning georgia, herschel walker over there, democrats would be on this list, they

would have to win one of these republican held seats. there is, one this has been the story, as long as we have been doing these shows, it has been the story all year. it looms above all others as a target for democrats, it is pennsylvania, it is the state joe biden won in 2020, it is the state the democratic nominee this summer averaged by nearly nine points, that number for fetterman has come all the way down to just over a point. we are now only starting to get polls after that debate that was held this week, oz and fetterman squaring off, the only time they did so, that debate has sparked a lot of discussion and that debate is also playing out on the airwaves now, in pennsylvania, in the final weeks of this campaign. the fetterman campaign, for instance, seized on this answer from the debate, on the subject of abortion for mehmet oz. >> this is who doctor oz wanton charge of women's health care decisions -- >> >> i want women,

doctors, local, political leaders. >> local, political leaders. local, political leaders. >> oz would like politicians like doug mastriano ban abortion without exceptions. even in cases of rape, incest, or life of the mother. oz is too extreme for pennsylvania. >> i am john fetterman, and i approve this message. meanwhile, on the other side, the trump super pac went out with this new at the day after the debate called just not right. >> the worst border crisis in american history, the worst crime wave in decades, the threat of nuclear annihilation, our economy collapsing, joe biden and john fetterman aren't up to these challenges. biden is stumbling around, and

fetterman just isn't right. [inaudible] >> biden and fetterman, clueless, [inaudible]. >> make america great -- again something, this content. >> and joining us now, david plouffe, the former campaign manager and white house senior adviser to president barack obama, he is an msnbc political analyst, and ritual hourly, the chief of national, msnbc political analyst, thanks to both of you for being with us, david, let me start with you. so, that add that we just played there from the trump aligned super pac, it did not actually feature any of the clips from the debate, but it is certainly playing on something that you have heard in the wake of that debate, concerns about john fetterman, his recovery from the stroke, and the performance that he delivered in that debate. i am curious how you look at that as a factor in this race. over the

summer it was nine points, now it is one. do you think that slippage had something to do with his performance on the campaign trail? and how do you think what voters saw in the debate this week, when they will see an act like this, do you think that will affect how they vote in this race? >> my sense is that the tightening that we have seen, i would say the same thing for georgia, both walker and oz were well below what they were ever going to get once people voted. so i think that they were both performing for early, you have a lot of republicans, republicans gaining independents and polls saying that they were undecided. but they have come, home and i think that is why the races a tight. no, i think that amassing a lot, of i mean, i thought that that just shows a terrible, stereotypically terrible bad act, but there has been some other ads that have been more effective, talking about other issues that i think that has probably been more of the issue, i think that his performance on the campaign trail, or the debate. you know, my guess is

that this is a very close race, there is not that many undecided left, so i don't think that you are going to see any seat change because of the debate. now, fetterman campaign has obviously tried to have oz really, pay a price, for this deeply unpopular comment that local, political leader should be involved with women's health care decisions. obviously the acai trying to hit him on his performance, i don't think so, i think we are headed to a super close race in pennsylvania. one question there is, if shapiro does win by a large margin, that is going to be very important. it is heading to a victory of some margin. i think it could be a crucial factor. but i understand why the debate got so much attention. but i really doubt at the end of the day that it is going to be the driver of the outcome. >> rich, i am curious from your standpoint, you think that debate is going to affect the outcome? >> >> yeah, i, do

awesome got this thing down by nine, points or whatever it was, out icing, largely on crime, and then it's not about one or two point, of deficit for a while, their public just kind of frustrated. what can we do to, to get him over the top? and it seems they now believe oz is narrowly ahead. this is going to be a close race, it's going to be razor-thin, one way or the other, i don't think people are prepared to see what they saw from fetterman, the spin from fetterman, his campaign, he mooshes we're together here at, there until lot worse than what it was. a big part of being a senator is talking and listening, our, doing debating, and his recovery is just not what it was portrayed as. >> let me ask you about a point that david was, making too, that you look at the governor's race in pennsylvania, and the polling there shows josh shapiro, the democrat, well ahead. i look at pennsylvania, and

look at why did donald trump carry it in 2016, and then lose it in 2020. and the answer, when you look at the map here, it just comes screaming at you, the suburbs right outside of philadelphia where you got these voters who did not like donald trump, and right now, by all indications of the polling, they are not too found of democrats, joe biden. in that debate, oz seemed, when he was pressed on it, he seemed to go out of his way to endorse trump for 2024. and i see that he is going to do a rally with trump in pennsylvania on the saturday before the election, is he risking the very voters that he needs the suburban voters, they may not want to vote for democrats but is he aligning himself too closely with trump? because they don't want to vote for trump -- again no doubt that trump is a double it so sort, mastriano, is just way over identified what they stop the steal stuff,

and has no hope, now of closing message and philadelphia in this round, has been a moderate one. you have to work with other, is we all have our part to play, oz is trump has that cut to plan. not a natural politician. he's not a natural choice for pennsylvania. he has been a hard worker, he has been a learner, he has pretty good campaign staff, and that is why he is a bit ahead of the moment i think. david, if democrats to end up needing a flip in the republican, state and they fall short in pennsylvania, where it is their next best? that is not a big drop off from pennsylvania in the next one? >> first, steve, the question that you asked rich, let's look at what youngkin did with trump. you know in his -- base a year ago. very careful, and you can think about what youngkin was trying to do in the suburbs outside of washington, very so much what you just talked about, what on

needs to do. so now just outside philadelphia, that is the big place, but also outside of pittsburgh. and so i'm very puzzled by that decision. i understand trump may help with the turnout a little bit, but i think it's risky. so pennsylvania is clearly at the top of the list. i think that you look at ohio, as remaining close, but again, being 46 or 45, it's great in the pole, but that's not at 50, so you know, north carolina, has been very close, but i think the one that you say all of that was that you saw in the right side of the chart. it clearly, that pennsylvania is a. i mean it's a must-win state! maybe the democrats are going to run the table on all of their races on the last, but you cannot count on that. so you know, it can't be more important. doesn't mean that -- you know we could be surprised, vance has obviously been and underperformed what republicans would normally get. in a race like that. what will it be enough? >> i am doubtful about that, despite the campaign that ryan has. brian >> yeah just -- democrats and republicans, a lot of folks remember where the

polls landed in 16, and in ohio, and where the actual results and it up. david plouffe, rich raleigh, thank you for joining us. i appreciated, both of you! >> coming, up a state that is also crucial to the battle for the senate this year, and for the white house to what years from now. one where republicans are facing a slate of candidates, more tethered to donald trump than any other battleground. we are taking a close look at what is going on in arizona. next! ♪ ♪ ♪ xt ♪ ♪ ♪

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and our countdown to the first poll closing an election, i took a last lap we were talking about the dynamic in pennsylvania where there is a split right now potentially forming where the governor's race, josh apparel, to democrats, comfortably in front and that race. the senate race, pretty much dead even in pennsylvania. the possibility of a split ticket result, of a democrat winning the governor's race and republicans winning a senate race, from pennsylvania, let's go to another state where there's another potentially surprising split ticket development. let's go out to arizona, and here is how it works in arizona. take a look at the senate race here. this is where the democrats are defending a seat, mark kelly, the democratic incumbent, being challenged by republican blake masters. now the polling is tight, and a bit here, it's very close, the average is only about a point and a half. but mark kelly, democrat, continues to lead in the

polling here and i was ana overall. the polling average over blake masters. that is the senate race! here is the race for governor, closely watched race, kari lake, the republican is actually leading by about four points on average in this case. you've got the democrat leading in the senate race, the republican leading in the gubernatorial race, and of course, the extra layer of this is kari lake closely, closely has tested herself to donald trump. to donald trump's rhetoric about the 2020 election. she ran in the primary with a lot of, frankly, members of her party at the national level thinking that she represented the weaker potential nominee. that this would be giving the governor's race to the democrats, and here is like outperforming blake masters. like masters, also around with trump's endorsement in the primary. but lake is out performing her democratic opponent, meanwhile, masters is trying to play catch up in the senate race. so you've got a bit of a potential split ticket here in arizona, two very close races.

so what is going on there in arizona? joining us now from phoenix, nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard, and don, i wonder if you could talk a little bit about that dynamic. i think it has been surprising to a lot of people who watched carry like, in the primary, we have watched her in the star election campaign. that she has taken this lead in the polling. what accounts for that? what accounts for that split we are seeing here, with blake masters not kind of tracking with kari lake? >> yes, steven, we can start with the split component of this. nobody here in the state on the republican side wings at the suggestion that care like whatever she can to lift up, not only down by the candidates, like secretary of state, the candidate attorney general candidate -- but also lift up of the senate candidate. the blake masters, she has been holding campaign rallies, every single night over the last couple of weeks, including, here she is holding a halloween rally here in mason, arizona, which is dressed up as rosy the

river. but her guess here is a blake masters. and for all of the events that are being touted as -- blake masters has been spending most of them with her, so that's how you see it play out in here. she has a charisma that appealed to a large swath of america the maricopa county, the electric their frankly turned, off by the likes of donald trump. that is where we have seen carry the katie hobbs, the democrats, but also the likes of liz cheney, went up in the airway city on the million dollar ad, trying to press upon voters here, that kari lake is somebody who still calls for the decertification of the 2020 election. that she is an election denier and that she is a threat. somebody who is even defended the 15-week abortion ban here in the state of arizona. because democrats here, katie hobbs campaign sees this as a path forward. if they are able to convince enough conservatives, anti trump conservatives, independents here, that katie hobbs is palpable. somebody that they can justify

voting for, and at the same, time turn out democrats in the numbers needed. whether it be on the abortion issue, or whether it be on the threats of democracy issue, here, that they have a way to make a crack at kari lake. and frankly, mark kelly is continue to have a crowd appeal to the electorate here. and the down ballot cans are not able to appeal to a broad swath of electors, in the same way that kari lake has been able to. >> yes, interesting dynamic, there can lake -- not won a lot of folks were predicting coming out of that primary. vaughn hillyard, they're in phoenix, thank you, i appreciate that report! and staying in arizona, staying in maricopa county, staying in phoenix, nbc news news anchor ali velshi in phoenix! he has spent the day talking to arizona voters, ali, thank you for joining us, we appreciate it. so vaughn was is giving us the lay of the land here, the governor senate race there. i am curious, what are you picking up on the ground from folks in arizona? >> well the balance there and the rally with people who are

highly politically motivated. i spent my day with six arizonian's, people from right around here. from across the political spectrum. there were three who identified as republicans, three eye who identified as democrats, but i will say, you know this very well -- steve, there's a lot history of republicanism and conserve but-ism in the states. but through conservatives i worked for -- or i spoke to, you are all in their time, at some point, worked with or for john mccain. here is what one of them told me about election denialism, and how it is influencing his own vote as a republican. >> the most important issue in arizona, what i'm voting, it is protecting the essence of our democracy. we are far worse, ground zero of this election denier stuff. the fraud, the audit that they did with the ballots in the 2020 elections. i -- when i'm deciding who to vote

for, it's a disqualifier if the person isn't 100 percent honest of the fact that we had an open, honest, fair and free election. >> right. >> and you are speaking as a republican? >> yes, i'm technically a registered republican. >> so, there you go, that's a republican. by the way, all of our republicans on our panel so they will not vote for election deniers. on the other hand, as you, said they got 15-week abortion ban, it goes back to a very, very old time, in the state like in wisconsin, and elected michigan. there isn't the positive ballot measure, there's a woman i spoke to who had native and latina background. she was queer, she is a person of color, and she says that there is just a lot in this election that she feels outside of an attack by. she is by the, way he's quite, young 21 years old. here's what she told me. >> i think what is motivating motivating me right now especially going into the, election voting, this is my personal charm election. [laughs] and --

the big thing that i didn't think would have to be an issue is misinformation. and denying something that is so simple and basic. at the end of the day, i am what most people target as, i am what is constantly being harmed. i am a queer person with a uterus, and it's like i'm of color, and it's constantly my rights are being pushed away. >> so you would appreciate this a lot, steve. i have people from across the political spectrum. but they were united in this concept of what citizenship looks like. with pluralism looks like. what civic engagement looks like. the fact that down ballot races are very, really important, and arizona has got a political history of representing people across the political spectrum, that they think is at risk of being lost right now, all of their messages to everyone else's pleas,? go vote? don't get up the next morning and just be fascinated by the fact that some of these people won elections in arizona if you didn't vote. it was a very eye-opening conversation that i'm going to have a lot of on tv this

weekend and into coming monday. >> all right, ali velshi, in the hearts of maricopa county, thank you for joining us! and as ali just said, he's going to have a lot more from arizona tomorrow starting at 8 am eastern time. be right here on msnbc. and when we come back, democrats face a herculean task and trying to hold their house majority. we're gonna take a look at exactly what it would take for them to pull that off and some surprising new poll numbers! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ you might take something for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something

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it's subway's biggest refresh yet! ♪ ♪ ♪ and as the clock continues to take away to election night, we turn our attention to the battle for control of the house of representatives. so this is the map that the 2020 election produced, a democratic hold of the house of representatives. but it ended up being by a very slim margin. remember, republicans didn't win the presidency in 2020, but they made gains in the house. they come into 2022, they come into this general election, meaning net gain of republicans just do five seats, 435 in the country, net gain of five states would give republicans control. history suggests, as the opposition party, they should be able to get that, joe biden's approval rating would suggest that they would be able to get to that. democrats are hoping to defy history. we actually got, today, some polling, we haven't gotten a

ton of polling when it comes to key house races. we got some polling today, and a little bit of some surprising developments, i think in the new york times and siena, they did this in port congressional district. and let me take you through them. for that are gonna be crucial for the control of the house. third district of kansas, this is centered and the suburbs on the kansas side of kansas city. cherice davis is a democratic incumbent, she was elected in 2018. this is a district that was actually redrawn this, year redistricting year. it got less democratic in the redraw, there is a lot of thought that dave was gonna be a very dangerous and calm about democrat. she still may prove to be, this is just the poll, we'll see what happens on election night. but if you're a democrat, it got to see that is a very -- 14-point advantage for cherice davis, this is a district of joe biden carried by five points in 2020. take a look also -- the first district of nevada, now this is a district that changed dramatically in redistricting. dina titus is a democratic incumbents there. this was a very safe democratic

district, an overwhelming the democratic district, with the democrats in nevada did was they basically broke up titus's district and a try to parcel out some of the heavily democratic areas to other districts in nevada, in an effort to win more seats to shore up more seats in nevada. so titus has been saying -- this puts me at risk! she isn't a tie or race here. this is uncharted territory for her to be in such a competitive race. so it's a tie race, though, when democrats need badly hold if they are gonna win the house. new mexico, seconded, like republican incumbent, again, lines we've drawn by democrats in new mexico, to give them a chance in this district, a much more democratic districts. one point lead in this bill for the democrats, democrats badly need to win this, one if they're going to pull off a supply in the house, and about marked cartwright, democratic pennsylvania only democrats to win a district in 2020 that voted for donald trump at the same time. and cart right, is leading by six, points in what is pretty much -- a chain is a little, bit but pretty much the same district,

overall for democrats -- history is not good for them when it comes to control of the house. these polls though, somewhat encouraging, i would say for democrats. and by the, way speaking of control of the house, on election, night we are we gonna look first? 7 pm, for a purse reader of the house is going to be in virginia. the polls close at seven in two key district, the second and the seventh in particular, two democratic incumbents elected in 2018. they are facing reelection, i think this could be bellwether side of election night. they tell us how it's going to be, and someone who spent some time in both districts recently, nbc news capitol hill correspondent ali vitali. ali, the second district in near district virginia beach, the second district in northern virginia, what did you find out there? >> steve, great minds think alike! because i thought the same thing which is why i expect time in these two districts because we are going to see these results early on election night. and they are bellwethers, which frankly when i talk with both spanberger and luria, yes, they are aware that's how we are looking at them, but they would

argue that they have always been running in tight swinging districts. sandra her argues that her district has been that even back to 2014 when it was held by eric canter, and of course louis are saying that all of the contours of her district have changed. the issues that she is running on our different now and are shaped heavily by 2020. but at the same, time she is used to running in a tight race. and i think the fascinating thing for me is, i was there in louis's district, yes we talk a lot about these issues, that are top of our polling, a crime, inflation, abortion, the economy, all of those are very important. but what luria says is a hand issue in her district -- it's a january six committee and the work that she has done to protect democracy after what we saw during the insurrection. when i talk to voters, they have two very different opinions on this when you talk to most republicans, i will show you one of them, and then on the back end, what democrat was saying. listen to how this went: >> how

do you feel about the work that laurie has done on the january six committee? >> i think it's atrocious. i have family that went up to january 6th. i have brands that went up there. >> i can understand people standing up for their, right and everything like that, but having to assault on our democracy -- that is ridiculous! and to think that the election was stolen, absolutely with nicholas? >> steve, i think the larger question that i'm looking at, and i listen to ali velshi's reporting and bombs reporting, the election denialism threat is going to be really fascinating for us to watch on election night. because the big question that i have been asking is -- if elaine luria is right, and people who don't believe that the election was stolen, and people who believe that the election was stolen don't vote for her, what does that say about where the country is right now? we are going to find out in just about ten days. steve? >> all right, ali vitali, who was just in these two key districts, thank you ali for that! we will be right back!

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taking, thank you for watching! >> this is the katie phang show, welcome! live from miami, the florida, like a saturday morning to you, i