dismissed, i'm sadly not too confident of that. lastly and briefly, you are reporting on what president biden is urging congress to do if oil companies don't take more action to lower prices. >> he's urging congress to propose new taxes on oil companies saying that their profits are a quote windfall of war. this is really getting at one of the key things that has been plaguing president biden and his administration for months and in recent weeks with the rising gas prices. this is a sore spot for president biden, a sore spot for many democrats as they head into the midterm elections, and this is one way that the president is looking that they could maybe pull back on some of these prices and attack some of these companies rather than having the high prices hit consumers. >> certainly frustration in the white house, a decision by opec plus which sent prices up again. alayna treene, thank you for joining us this morning, and to

all of you for getting up "way too early" with us on this tuesday morning. we're one week from the midterms. "morning joe" starts now. it's sad to see we are in a point in history where people belief it's okay to express their political sentiments through violence, and so i think it really demonstrates that we have to calm things down. we have to decide that we are going to be more respectful as an american society, that it's okay to disagree. >> san francisco's district attorney makes a plea for decency and discourse following the politically motivated attack on nancy pelosi's husband, and now we are learning more about what the suspect had planned for the speaker of the house. also this morning, president biden is hitting the campaign trail again as we are now one week away from election day. we'll tell you where he's headed today, and why. meanwhile a member of the group

who tried to overturn the elections expresses remorse for his actions. and we'll have the latest from ukraine. long lines for essential needs after weeks of attacks on critical infrastructure. retired admiral john kirby will be our guest. good morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is tuesday, november 1st. exactly one week until the midterm vote. joe will be back tomorrow but along with willie and me, we have pulitzer prize winning columnist at "the washington post," eugene robinson, member of the ”the new york times” editorial board, mara gay, the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire, and nbc news senior reporter ben collins, and willie, we're having ben back today. he was pointing out the conspiracy theories in light of the attack on paul pelosi and how they have spiralled out of control with no guardrails and we saw it again yesterday after the news conference that we just showed you a part of where within seconds if you went on twitter or anywhere online that

was, you know, off the mainstream media, off of the focus, it was incredible, the conspiracy theories, the vitriol, the hatred, the cruelty that started flying once again about paul pelosi. things are different, and there's a new level of dangerous. >> and it's pervasive now. even if you don't believe the conspiracy theory, you've heard the conspiracy theory. you're aware of it because it's everywhere online and ben was right yesterday. we got documentary evidence yesterday. the man accused of breaking into house speaker's nancy pelosi home and brutally attacking her 82-year-old husband has been charged with a slew of charges. attempt of kidnapping and assaulting and threatening or injuring a family member. hours later, the san francisco district attorney charged the 42-year-old with attempted murder and burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, false imprisonment and

threats to a public official and their family. according to the federal complaint, depape planned to kidnap the speaker, not realizing she was in washington, d.c. federal prosecutors say the suspect told san francisco police he was going to hold the house speaker hostage and talk to her and that if she lied, he said, he was going to break her kneecaps, his words. according to the federal complaint, he added quote, she would then have to be wheeled into congress, which would show other members of congress their consequences to actions. he articulated he viewed nancy pelosi as the leader of the pack of lies. he wanted to use the house speaker to lure someone else to him. the complaint did not specify who that person was. during a news conference yesterday, the san francisco d.a. said it appears the attack was politically motivated. >> what we also have learned is that the defendant brought to

the location of the pelosi residence, a second hammer, as well as zip ties, rope and a roll of tape. what is clear based on the evidence that we have thus far is that this house and the speaker herself were specifically targets of the defendant. >> the accused attacker is set to be arraigned later today. the d.a. says she wants him held without bail. at last check, paul pelosi still is in the icu. the house speaker released a statement yesterday that reads in part, we have been deluged with thousands of messages conveying concern, prayers and warm wishes. we are most grateful thanks to the excellent trauma care medical team at zuckerberg san francisco general hospital. paul is making steady progress on what will be a long recovery process. our family thanks everyone for their kindness. a statement from speaker pelosi. let's bring in nbc news justice and intelligence correspondent ken dilanian. walk us through a bit more, if you would, the affidavit from the fbi, part of which i read.

a minute ago, i said ben was right, which amounts to a conspiracy theory. >> we learned that the time line laid out in the affidavit matched up with what we had already heard about this event. then we also learned that the confession confirmed the essential facts, there are only two people in the house that he came there with the intelligent of trying to kidnap and hold hostage nancy pelosi and torture her. he broke in with a hammer through a glass door, raising questions about the lack of security at the speaker of the house's home in san francisco. got up to paul pelosi's bedroom, surprised him in the bedroom, according to this affidavit. as we learned, pelosi managed to go to the bathroom and call 911. what we learned yesterday was that the assailant knew he did that, but decided to stay there anyway to face the police because he believed he was opposing tyranny and surrender was not an option.

he already was using that kind of language, his qanon, sort of january 6th style language. and then when police arrived, they say that both men had their hands on a hammer. they asked if everything was okay. depape said everything was mind, and rested the hammer from pelosi, and smashed him in the head. they grabbed the assailant, and the chilling part of the interview is he said his intention was to hold nancy pelosi, ask her some questions. he assumed that she would lie to him, and he would smash her kneecaps with a hammer and hoped she would be wheeled into congress as a lesson, because he believed she was in charge of the lies from the democratic party according to the affidavit. i think what's really important about this federal prosecution, bias, is that this assault charge, it's not just an assault charge. it's almost a terrorism charge

in the sense that it makes it illegal to assault a relative of a federal official with the intent to coerce or intimidate or prevent that official from carrying out their duties. it assumes a political motive and carries 30 years in prison. it's rarely used. i asked why they brought this case even though they knew the locals would have plenty of charges and prison time, they believe this is a dangerous moment in our democracy, not because this is a democratic speaker of the house's residence that was attacked but because there's so much rhetoric out there, dangerous rhetoric encouraging violence against politicians, election workers, that they felt it was really important to bring a federal case here and particularly this charge of trying to intimidate a federal official to send a message that this conduct cannot be tolerated. >> we're going to have more examples of that dangerous rhetoric that's actually happening on the campaign trail as we move forward even with

people mocking what has happened to paul pelosi or thinking somehow there's a joke here. republicans will say, well, look what happened when this happened, look what happened when steve scalise was shot. when steve scalise was shot, this show went wall-to-wall with coverage, and i don't think there's a democrat on the record making fun of it. i don't think there's a high profile democratic leader saying conspiracy theories or someone who worked in a democratic administration spreading lies on the internet. i don't think that happened. you can correct me, ben. you can check that out. i'm pretty sure when steve scalise was shot there was unity. and i believe nancy pelosi called for that unify. today we have people laughing two seconds after the san francisco district attorney confirms that this was a politically motivated attack, that nancy pelosi's husband suffered a severe injury to his brain, to his skull, by a man

with a hammer who tried to kill him. who came to maim nancy pelosi, and republicans are mocking this and having fun with this on the campaign trail. so ben collins, a toss to you on this note that within seconds of the latest news on this event, the vitriol continued. the cruelty continued. but what are you looking at in terms of true danger to our democracy in light of this kind of talk happening. >> the important thing to note is the myth won. i'm not saying everyone believes it. i'm saying hatch the people in that party believe this, right, and that's what the issue is. service to the myth. service to the myth that the other is out to get you is winning. it's november 1st. yesterday was halloween, across the street a couple of weeks ago, everyone was talking about how fentanyl was going to be in your kids' candy. a big myth, a fear of how the drug dealers are going to put fentanyl into kids' candy.

didn't happen. we would be talking about that. also last few weeks, there was this myth that trans kids were identifying as animals and using litter boxes in school. it was said thursday by don bolduc, who's trying to mainstream himself as a center candidate for the senate in new hampshire. that myth persevered. the myth is persevering in these spaces. i believe the myth in this case is insane. this is what they actually believe. creating this world inside of nancy pelosi's house. the point of the myth was to say that these -- because they don't -- these people don't understand how gay relationships work. that's what this is about, by the way. they were saying that two people were hammers were doing something with hammers because that's what gay people do, and this was intruded upon by the

police. and that that's what the joke is. donald trump jr. was tweeting about this yesterday, marjorie taylor greene was tweeting about this yesterday, that this is the world gone amuck. >> a sitting member of congress. >> and that this is somehow deserved. so that's the issue. right now, service to these myths, service to these urban legends to make people afraid of the other, instead of the real issues we have, inflation, and all of these other things we should be talking about, we are targeting trans people, gay people, we're targeting immigrants, and it's a way to distract, even if one of their own people does political violence in their name. >> there's no guardrails, willie. we talk about marjorie taylor greene and others like her. no, she's a sitting member of congress, and it's been accepted. >> it's been accepted. there's that side of it. there's the conspiracy theories fanned and flamed by people in

power and then there's the mockery of an 82-year-old grandfather being beaten in his home with a hammer, carried out by someone who's seeking high office, kari lake is the latest republican to mock attack on nancy pelosi's husband, the nominee of course for governor, the republican nominee of arizona making a joke about the attack last night during a town hall. she was asked about school safety and here's how she responded. >> it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like it is. nancy pelosi, well, she's got protection, apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection. but -- >> to laughter. we reached out at nbc news to lake's campaign. the campaign responded by saying her remarks did not need clarifying. effectively saying she stands by the joke. so there's a lot going on here, obviously. but the core of this, the reason nancy pelosi and others spoke out so strongly when steve scalise was shot, it was

horrifying, a horrible event. they stated the obvious. you get measured responses on the republican side, not getting responses at all or in some cases mocking what happened to an 82-year-old man. >> that's what's so terrifying is we have a situation in which a small group of people really who are not only believing these myths, but willing to perpetrate violence because of them. you know, that number of people is thankfully so far been actually quite small. the problem is the mainstreaming and the normalization of that kind of violence. and the validation of it by figures that are serving in our nation's highest office. and what that sends is a message to anybody else that this is acceptable, in fact, maybe it's righteous. maybe it's necessary to save our country as the language of the republican party has now embraced and that's what's really scary. it's not only scary for public officials, as you mentioned, ben, a moment ago, the people

who in this country are being targeted, are being scapegoated in the moment by the republican party i would say fringes, but it's no longer fringes, gay people, transgender americans, immigrants, women, black americans, those people know all of those americans know right now that they have a target on their backs, and that's because political violence is now acceptable, and that's terrifying. >> i was talking to joe yesterday evening and just to that point, mara. if this had happened back when he was in congress, democrats and republicans would have stood together in unity and in prayer denouncing political violence. there is nothing like that happening right now. you have mitch mcconnell thankfully saying something but in a silo. you have different republicans saying, well, violence can't be accepted. that's not helpful. that's not addressing what happened. okay. this was political violence that

had complete parallel matching to what led up to january 6th to the types of rhetoric that donald trump has brought into the republican party. either you denounce that or you're with it. let's bring in attorney and contributing columnist for "the washington post" george conway, and, george, the normalization of this violence that mara and willie were talking about, the convenient lies that can circulate on the internet to try and deflect from the horror or what has happened and leads to people being led to laugh in cruelty when kari lake makes fun of 82-year-old paul pelosi having his head bash instead with a hammer, a skull fracture and surgery. take a moment, and take that in. what a sick place we're at right now this this country, that that would happen. that moment is sickening and yet, there's no recourse, george, there's no guardrails. >> i mean, there is a direct link, as you just pointed out a

minute ago between the kind of rhetoric that led to january 6th, and the kind of rhetoric that led to the incident at the pelosi home. i'll give you an example. in the arrest affidavit filed yesterday by the fbi he told the fbi that he didn't leave after the 911 call because much like the american founding fathers with the british, he was fighting against tyranny without the option of surrender. that harkens back to the tweet that lauren boebert, a member of congress sent out at 8:30 a.m. on the 6th of january 2021 where she said today is 1776. it's the same thing. where's nancy? it's the same thing. it's the entire ecosystem that promotes violence, that promotes

violent words and then now both promotes it and also other people who let it slide. we have heard so much silence from republicans, which is just as bad as some of the rhetoric. >> gene robinson, there seems to be a confluence of disturbing trends, the post january 6th normalization of violence and political discourse. we have talked about how law enforcement officers, political government agencies now believe and are deeply worried about how violence has become part of the acceptable political rhetoric post january 6th, that's number one, and how the governing ethos for so many republicans is simply own the libs. it's about whatever it is to score a moment, to score a point on twitter, on instagram, whatever it might be, and there is no attempt at all to show any common decency. it's all about in this case, an

82-year-old grandfather is in critical condition with a fractured skull, it's about owning the libs. is that party too far gone to be saved? >> it appears to be too far gone to be saved. i don't know what would save it. first, let's all send our best wishes and prayers to paul pelosi, an 82-year-old man who was savagely beaten with a hammer by a man who was, it's not just a normalization of cruelty and violence. the cruelty and violence, that's the whole point of the republican party now, and that is a crazy thing to say but it's true. that's the way republican officials are communicating with their base and motivating their base. i've never seen anything like this.

i don't know that we've ever been in a place like this except in the years, in maybe the 1850s. i mean, and now we have to start using that as a historical , this is one of our two major political parties that has gone off the rails and become a clear and present danger. it is -- i don't know how we get off this ledge. i don't know how we get back from this. i know how we should. republicans, responsible republicans ought to be speaking out. they ought to be standing with democrats and all members of congress at a moment like this. when the husband of the speaker of the house was savagely attacked. there should be, you know, a

prayer service. there should be unity, and compassion and what there is is owning the libs, but owning the libs in this cruel, violent way that is essentially the whole point of republican communication these days. it is so dangerous. >> and to gene's point, willie, during this dangerous time where who knows what will happen next, we know there will be a next time. the one thing that could tamp this down is all republicans standing up against what happened. i venture to say that it shouldn't even be hard for them to stand up and say, tone it down. cut it out. you know, we're not talking like donald trump. he may be our guy, but we're not talking like him, and we're not allowing this. and we will have not have this in our politics. that's the one thing that could actually bring this down to, you know, a more normal level where

there's humanity in our politics. >> he could turn down the temperature himself. he won't, he never has. you're so right. sitting here listening to this h how have we been having it conversation. any man has his home broken into in the middle of the night, how are we debating this. i want to go back to the conspiracy theory you have been talking about. the san francisco police chief yesterday on cnn quote there is absolutely no evidence mr. pelosi knew this man. as a matter of fact, the evidence indicates the exact opposite. that's from the police. i'm sure you're seeing online from the fbi affidavit where depape confesses to it being politically motivated. it's the same fbi that broke into donald trump's house. all the conspiracy theories and undermining comes home to roost in moments like this. >> everything is in service to

the talking point that they had established over the weekend in the information vacuum that existed in the weekend, you know, over the weekend there was no official word, no official narrative. filled up by people like elon musk. that's the dangerous cocktail. so we have two major problems that are, like, melding together into one very big problem. the republican party has decided that intimidation is a big part of what they're doing. even at the local level. you know, for example, school board meetings, you know, these drag queen story hours that are always, you know, taken over by proud boys. things they don't like. things that they want to talk about books in schools, and they want to talk about drag queens. those are taken over by proud boys. and if there's a vote at that school board, at that library, board of commissioners, maybe, the proud boys are there to intimidate the people. i saw this firsthand, i was in stockton, california, last year, and somebody who stormed the

capitol on january 6th was outside of a school board meeting. she didn't have a kid in that school, but she was able to overturn a mask mandate right before omicron hit. that's one side of this. the idea that as charlie kirk from turning point usa, the big conservative pac for young people said yesterday that, you know, our country is not a democracy, it's a republic. that in conjunction with the fueling and monetization of culture wars by people like elon musk where they're incentivized to keep these things going, incentivized to keep this intimidation tactic over humanity. when you put the two things together, that's how you get fascism. there's no other word for this. historically, this is how you get to fascism, intimidation people people feel helpless

because their vote is lesser, because they are becoming a minority in this country. that combined with violence, combined with immediate ecosystem that incentivizes that sort of othering, that idea that you're losing power. historically, throughout time, it hasn't happened here yet in this way, but there's no reason it can't. and that's how it's going to happen if we don't really start right now to inject some humanity into our politics. >> it's really important what you said, and add to it, social media, twitter, and that can actually make the process move a lot faster as we can see things whipping around within seconds after the news conference yesterday, just as one example. nbc's ken dilanian, we'll end this block on you, tell us what you're looking for ahead on this case. especially given what ben just said. >> right. i think, look, if a republican was responding to the conversation, he or she would say, this was a mentally disturbing person that clearly was not living in the real

world, and that may or may not be true but the reason the justice department brought these very serious charges on top of the state charges is because this is exactly the worst nightmare of law enforcement officials. this wasn't a real terrorist attack in the sense of this was some republican operative going to actually kidnap nancy pelosi. this was a person on the fringes who was living in a garage, but who got caught up in this rhetoric that's out there, that's been mainstreamed that is being consumed all over the place, and that's exactly why the intelligence community put out a warning on friday that there's a lot of dangerous rhetoric around fraud and the election that is putting election workers, election administrators, politicians at risk, and they wanted to warn law enforcement agencies to be on the lookout for this, that even some of this is protected free speech, they have to pay close attention because it's getting close to violence that the danger is elevated is never enforced. that's the real issue here that people on the fringes who have a

tendency to violence anyway, are going to be motivated by in extreme rhetoric. >> listen, the republicans who are responsible right now for whether or not this continues or it actually is tamped down, it's on you. it's on you not to talk about this as an isolated incident. again, to ken's point and to the point we were making yesterday on this show, you can't just say, oh, this man was deranged. he was so confused. you're hiding behind that. you're hiding behind that. you're using that as a way to get out of the conversation instead of address what happened. of course he was deranged, vulnerable, weak people get preyed upon by cult leaders or fascists, and yes, they are led to do crazy, dangerous things that happened on january 6th. did you see those people, they were fervently, violently, desperately looking for nancy. they were looking to kill people. they were going in there with

zip ties and defecating all over the place and breaking windows and going crazy all in the name of donald trump. let's not pussy foot around this. let's look at all the evidence. let's use your eyes, republicans, and this is your moment. this is when you could help get things back on track for this country instead of for yourself, and secondly, using other reasons to try and get around this, like, oh, look what happened with steve scalise, stop lying, stop pretending that other attacks in the past that happened on either side of the aisle was the same. it wasn't the same. the reaction to the shooting of steve scalise was unanimously against political violence on both sides of the aisle and you know it. stop trying to take your response and isolate it and save it from the truth so you

continue the violent rhetoric out there. do something. you are the only ones who can. just like on january 6th, donald trump was the only person who really could have made that crowd turn around. they were looking at his tweets. they were listening to everything he said. if he said vehemently and right away, turn around, come back, they would have all turned around and you know it. they would have stopped. you can make this stop, and at this point, only you. nbc's ken dilanian, thank you very much. nbc news senior reporter, ben collins thank you as well. we really appreciate your coverage. and still ahead on "morning joe," we are one week to the midterm elections. president biden is hitting the campaign trail heading to florida today, and pennsylvania this weekend. we'll preview the stops and the president's closing message to voters. plus steve kornacki is standing by at the big board. he joins us next to break down where some of the most closely watched races stand. and before we go to break, two

special "morning joe" events to tell you about. first, this coming sunday, join us for a special prime time hour of "morning joe" as we look at the critical races and key issues on the ballot ahead of tuesday's vote. that's this sunday at 9:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. and then next wednesday, the morning after the election, a special edition of "morning joe," in front of a live studio audience. we're going to break down all the results with an all star political panel, and special guests. and we'll discuss what it all means for the future of this country. for more on how to secure your spot in the audience, scan the qr code that's on your screen right now. we'll also have all the information on our web site. joe.msnbc.com. web site. joe.msnbc.com. we'll be right backment we'll be right backmen . . . . .

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the real honey you love, plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin. the only brand with real honeyand elderberry. campaign trail with a trip to florida in fort lauderdale. the president is set to discuss what his administration has done to strengthen medicare and social security protections for americans. the president also will reunite with former president barack obama on the trail this weekend. the white house says the two leaders will take the stage together in philadelphia on saturday to stump for pennsylvania's democratic nominees for governor and senate, josh shapiro, and john fetterman. let's bring in nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at his post at the big board one week from the midterms. steve, good morning, what are you looking at? >> we have been monitoring the big picture political climate. take a look at this, new numbers

from gallop asking folks, what are the top issues. you can see not surprisingly, the economy continues to finish first, abortion, crime, gun policy, immigration, what's striking about this poll from gallop, you ask folks who cite the economy as extremely important, are you going to vote for the democrats or the republicans, is there a partisan advantage on these issues at all, and look at how this kind of jumps out at you. on four of the top five issues that voters identify, republicans with the advantage. on three of those with significant advantages, 30 points on the economy. nearly 30 points on crime. more than 30 on immigration, slight on gun policy. the one democratic advantage here, it is double digits, is on the issue of abortion. obviously democrats have been playing that up as aggressively as they can since the supreme court ruling back at the end of june. you look at the screen, the

issues, the republican advantages, that should add to an overwhelming republican climate. you take a look at the generic ballot. tracking this every week, do you want democrats, republicans to be running congress. when you put it that way to people, we're getting mixed signals, there's a couple of different places out there that average these together. we'll give you a sense of the range here. real clear politics. their average has the republicans leading on the generic ballot by a little bit under three points. that's where it's been on this average for the last couple of weeks. 538, which also does this, it's not all of the same polls between these two. there's a different formula here. there's complexity. basically the 538 average has a tick under point. republican advantage in both of them, but a difference in about one point and three points, we're talking about a situation where republicans need a net gain of five seats to get control of the house, so anything this this range would probably be enough to get them the house.

there is a big question here about potentially the magnitude. is it something they just get by a small margin or is there a bigger wave that takes shape. that's some suspense there on the ballot, compared to issue polls i was just showing you. you take a look at the is that the battle ground in blue. five most vulnerable in red. naming the game for republicans is they need a net gain of one seat to break the 50/50 tie that goes to democrats because of kamala harris. of those democratic seats, take a look at polling averages in the democratic seats and you can see that actually georgia right now, herschel walker, slight, slight lead in the polling average in georgia over raphael warnock, 7/10 of one point. georgia is a runoff state. nobody right thousand in the polling average in georgia is over 50. so if they both finish out the 50% in election night. they'll do it all over again in a runoff on december 6th.

but potentially, if georgia flipped to the republicans or if one of the other states flipped to the republicans, then democrats have to flip one from the republican side to maintain balance, to counter the republican gain, and that's why all year pennsylvania has loomed large. barack obama, joe biden, they're going to be there in philadelphia on election eve with john fetterman. this race is crucial for democrats. it's a state that biden won in 2020. it's the only one of these five republican seats where consistently democrats are led in the polling. it's gotten closer in the polling. you can see on the average, fetterman up by one point. it was nine over the summer. it's come down to one a week before the election, but this is the seat. if democrats get this, this would be a pickup. remember, it's a republican held seat right now, and it would allow them to lose one from this column. nevada looks shaky. arizona they have gotten more encouraging news in the polling,

especially yesterday from the "new york times." new hampshire looms as a bit of a wild card. a lot of national republicans gave up on the new hampshire race when don became the republican nominee. the bottom line is if one of these goes democrats need to counter it over here. pennsylvania continues to loom as by far their best shot at that. so no surprise you're going to see obama, biden, the whole crew in philadelphia the saturday before the election. >> bringing out the big guns in pennsylvania. steve a little bit of a viewer's guy for election night, which we should be prepared for which we were last time in terms of counting the votes. pennsylvania, they don't count the mail-in vote until election day to the great frustration of a lot of people. what might this look like as it rolls out. >> cautious optimism, i go back to the map here that this will be quicker than 2020.

if you remember in 2020, pennsylvania got called finally for joe biden saturday at about 11:30 a.m. that was the call that gave biden the presidency. at that point, we hadn't called north carolina. we still hadn't called georgia, we still hadn't called arizona, nevada, that is what happened in 2020. there was hope it might be a little more efficient this year in pennsylvania, you're right, the big issue in pennsylvania in 2020 was they had never really done mass scale mail-in voting before. they did, they weren't prepared for it, and the state law was not changed to process the mail-in ballots ahead of time. the state law hasn't changed but the number of people voting by mail may be significantly lower this time. the counties may be more prepared to deal with what they do get this time, and also pennsylvania has financially incentivized the counties basically to stay open around the clock until they can get things counted. there's some reason to think that pennsylvania may be a

little bit quicker. again, look at north carolina, 75,000 vote victory for donald trump in that state. a close rate in 2020. again, the volume of mail voting high when you consider a few years ago, but potentially lower, significantly lower when you compare it to 2020, and the mail is what slowed things down in north carolina. north carolina does allow for the preprocessing and pretallying of the early vote and mail-in vote. we could get an earlier read out of georgia this time. there are some signs from these states that we might know a little bit more a little bit sooner. i do think arizona, though, it's pretty established in arizona, if the races are close in arizona, that's going to take a couple of days. and nevada too. by the way, if it ever came down to it, if it came to democrats actually having a shot to hang on to the house, and we're talking they end up with 220, 221 seats. the democratic majority would be

made in the state of california. it would come down to california, a whole bunch of districts there. california will take a month to count the votes in those districts. if house control really ever is on the line. it's election month. >> so we'll settle in for that. steve, thank you so much. we appreciate it. >> there's a lot there. joining us former new york city mayor, bill de blasio. and we're going to talk about the strategy democrats have been employing. and you say voting is emotional, and we need to move people. what issues are best for that, and what democrats are employing them the best? >> i was looking at steve's report. let's not forget ohio here. tim ryan has actually said something. i think he's had incredible emotional appeal across the aisle. it's about working people. he's shown a lot of independence. he's looking out for his state, his voters. he's not part of the washington elite. i think tim is a great example of what we need more from

democrats. he's given people a sense of, we're going to fight back against some of the problems and reempower working people in the process. >> you can speak to strategies that have worked and not worked. what is it that tim ryan is doing? what other races could they do more to connect with voters from what you have seen on the campaign trail. >> if you get to the closing argument, you're losing. if you're not turning to both your own message and some version of hope and optimism, you know, we all think '08, obama is the great example lar exemplar of this, if you're not giving people to vote, they're not voting. democrats are not just going to turn out out of anger. you were so powerful in the previous block, mika, on the question of what's happening in this country, but every day voters are thinking for better

or worse, more about the kitchen table, the pocketbook. democrats have to speak to that. i think tim ryan has done that. fetterman has done that brilliantly, notwithstanding the challenges he's facing personally, he has done that by giving people a sense that his focus is on every day working people and he can do something to shake up the status quo. that's going to motivate people. >> it's interesting, not only are democrats, folks like tim ryan, not really speaking to independent voters, they're not really speaking to their base very effectively either. can you talk a little bit about what you think actually is necessary to turn out the base in this moment? and what the heck is going on in new york where the governor's race has become strangely and unusually close? >> i think it's some of the same. i think very highly of kathy

hochul, i think she is a very relatable human being. i haven't seen enough of that message of i'm on your side, i'm one of you. i think she could do that message very plausibly, and i would argue she's done a good job of putting money back in people's pocket in the context of the post pandemic reality. we hope post pandemic reality. she's focused on child care, things like tax relief for middle class, working class people, but i think the message has been much less of that strong, i'm on your side, i'll fight for you, and i think she still has this last week to get that across effectively because of her own human qualities. i think overall, the problem for democrats, i agree with you, not speaking to the base, what will we do next for you. there's been legislative issues, real action on prescription drug costs. that's as kitchen table as it gets. that affects millions of people.

the infrastructure bill is going to help tens of millions of people. what has been lacking is the next big step. i would urge democrats to speak to the base from the position of not just look how awful the other side is. a hot of people stay home on that. here's our next big idea. whatever that candidate is. tim ryan, for example, i'll give him a lot of credit. he speaks about fixing what's wrong in the global situation with china. fighting back against some of the dominance that china has economically. reempowering working class people. factories in ohio. that's a vision you can latch on. you know who did that effectively, tragically in 2016, donald trump. that should be a democratic message with a vision of how to absolutely share prosperity with working people. tim ryan's doing it. john fetterman is doing it. i would like to see everyone do that. >> the issue in the governor's race in new york is crime,

crime, crime, every ad that lee zeldin puts up is about crime. ron desantis is having huge rallies, getting close to the sitting governor in a blue state, he's talking about crime. >> glenn youngkin joining him on the campaign trail. republicans have made crime a central issue, and you're uniquely suited to talk about this. you governed the nation's largest city, largest police force. the defund the police talking point, bogus, few democrats support that. that said, republicans have made headways on the issue. crime is up and there are concerns about policing. there are concerns about district attorneys and suspects getting back on the streets. how can democrats counter that message which is proving very effective for republicans. >> it is. people are fearful, and there's fair reasons that people feel it. the first thing for democrats to do is empathize, the second thing to do is to say where we're going. there's the adage in baseball,

play the ball, don't let the ball play you. right now, republicans are the only ones with a clear message. and in many ways, a consistent message. kathy hochul has an opportunity to say here's where we're going next and what next looks like to me is rebonding the relationship between police and community, a funding community-based solutions to violence, like the violence interrupters. there are tangible things that are going to turn around crime. she and eric adams did a good thing by putting more police into the subways in the last few weeks. that's a step forward. i think that vision piece has to be more. that's not going to solve the crime issue bluntly. the question is how do we do something on the ground. i would argue closing argument has to be i'm going to bring police and community back together. i'm going to support community members putting themselves

forward. here's how we do. >> i want to bring george conway back in the conversation. as we listen to bill de blasio and others talk about what the democrats need to do, what the issues we should be debating in this election, the midterms one week away, you have election deniers that are running for office, we have kari lake who's using her closing message jokes about nancy pelosi's husband, and getting laughs from an audience being cruel. you have ted cruz on social media pushing conspiracy theories about paul pelosi and getting tens of thousands of laughs on the internet all based on -- all using this tragedy to get a moment out of it, a cruel moment. we talk about democracy being at stake in these midterm elections, and yet so many of these races are so close so

tough question but what do you make of that? >> what i make of it is people aren't concerned about abstract questions or even practical questions about the future of democracy. it's just not, you know, they're the no political scientists. they're not psychologists, they're not sociologists. they worry about things that affect them on a daily basis. and that's what we saw and we see in those numbers, crime, immigration, all sorts of things, and if this were an ordinary time, i would still be a registered republican, and i would vote republican because mostly the republican policies over the years have tended to what i would support. but today it doesn't matter anymore. >> but would you vote for herschel walker. >> never. >> the issues that impact me, i'm going to pick this candidate, he is fit, would you vote for him? >> no. but that's the problem. i mean, the problem is we have

reached this diseased state in the republican party where we're producing candidates, they're producing candidates like that, and to me, i can't kind of relate to this whole discussion in a weird way because to me, i'm a single issue voter now, and that single issue for me is, you know, whether or not you support a democracy, whether or not you stand up against disinformation. and it is scary. i mean, we saw that steve had that board up there with ten senate races. eight of them were under 3 1/2% in the margins which means basically these races are close to or within the margin of error. and, you know, anybody who says they know what's going to happen next tuesday is wrong. wednesday morning everybody is going to say, it's obvious what was going to happen, whatever it was. >> that's for sure. >> nice closing note there, and former new york city mayor, bill

de blasio, thank you as well. it's good to see you. a federal judge clears the way for the january 6th committee to hear testimony from former chief of staff to donald trump mark meadows, but an appeal might put any potential appearance before the panel out of reach. we'll explain why. plus, a member of the house select committee, republican congressman adam kinzinger will be our guest. also ahead, the latest on the war in eastern europe as russia continues its attacks on key ukrainian infrastructure. the national security council's john kirby will join us live from the white house. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪♪ because the biggest oil companie decided they need to profit even more. they make record profits... even as americans struggle to pay the bills. call it price gouging. call it greed. call it enough already. with president biden's landmark bill,

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before the top of the hour. much of the word will be watching brazil today to see what now outgoing president jair

bolsonaro will do. he lost sunday's presidential election to lula da silva by less than two points. he has remained out of view since election night and has not delivered any remarks since losing. one of brazil's largest newspapers reports his team did draft a concession speech bolsonaro was to give yesterday but then didn't. bolsonaro has hinted for months that he and his team may challenge the election results if they did not go his way. since sunday's election loss, bolsonaro's supporters have set up 200 road blockades, and the nation is bracing for further unrest. president biden has spoken to brazilian president elect lula and was asked about the call yesterday.

>> mr. president, how was your call with lula from brazil today. >> what? >> your call with lula from brazil. >> it went well. we're putting a team together, to discuss what we can do together. he wants to focus on the environment, democracy, and dealing with the poor in his country, and saving the amazon. >> jonathan lemire what do you see happening here. >> this is a significant victory of lula with this narrow win. a liberal ascendant to brazil, returning to poor, pro climate change, wants to protect the amazon. it's a significant measure here and i think it was telling how quickly world leaders rushed to congratulate him. they want this to happen. bolsonaro out of the trump playbook, said he would not necessarily concede, he would not accept the election results. he has not said he will leave office. we are seeing civil unrest.

airports have been blocked off. truckers have parked on highways, rendering them impassable. we think we'll hear from bolsonaro today. there was a report that yesterday he was going to concede, that didn't happen. the longer this goes, the more worried the international is going to be. >> it is the top of the hour, just about right now. "the washington post's" eugene robinson is still with us, and joining the conversation, we have former white house press secretary jen psaki, now an msnbc host. msnbc contributor, mike taibbi barnicle, and david jolly. we're going to start with the brutal attack on paul pelosi and the difficult and dangerous place we are in as even top republican leaders are still pushing conspiracy theories about this attack. >> pushing conspiracy theories and making jokes about an attack on an 82-year-old man. we're getting new details this morning about the suspect accused of brutally beating paul pelosi, the husband of house

speaker nancy pelosi, a new indictment shedding light on what exactly happened inside the pelosi's home and what the suspect planned to do if the speaker were there. nbc news national correspondent miguel almaguer has more. >> reporter: federal authorities have charged david depape, the man they say broke into nancy and paul pelosi's home wielding a hammer with assault and attempted kidnapping. according to the new federal complaint, depape told investigators he was going to hold nancy hostage, and talk to they are. if nancy, he said, were to tell him the truth, he would let her go. if she lied, he was going to break her kneecaps, calling the speaker of the house, the leader of the pack of lies told by the democratic party. investigators say the suspect brought with him a roll of tape, white rope, one hammer, one pair of rubber and cloth gloves and a journa san francisco's district attorney filing charges against

depape, including attempted murder. >> we believe he did intend to kill mr. pelosi at the time he wielded that hammer in that attack. >> the federal complaint says paul pelosi was in bed and appeared surprised by depape. depape told pelosi to wake up after being startled on the second floor. the complaint continues. pelosi stated that his wife would not be home for several days, and depape reiterated that he would wait. pelosi was able to covertly call 911 while talking to the suspect providing clues that he was in distress. >> rp stated that there's a male in the home and that he's willing to wait for his wife. >> i think the main hurdle is when we have so many people putting out misinformation quite frankly into the public r what are -- >> reporter: what are the pieces of misinformation? >> that mr. pelosi knew this individual before the attack. we have no evidence to suggest he knew him whatsoever. >> reporter: when officers

arrived, pelosi and depape were holding a single hammer. depape pulled the hammer from pelosi's hand and swung the hammer, striking pelosi in the head. pelosi appeared to be unconscious on the ground. >> i don't know what the suspect's intentions were. what i know, him being at that house was intentional, deliberate, not random at all, and who knows what was in his mind or what he was willing to do if things had happened the way he wanted them to happen. >> the police chief there also saying paul pelosi did not know this man, contradicting that wild conspiracy theory, the ugly conspiracy theory that's been online. kari lake became the latest republican to mock the attack on nancy pelosi's husband, hit over the head with a hammer. the republican nominee made a joke about the attack during a town hall. she was asked about school safety, and she said this. >> it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like it is.

nancy pelosi, well, she's got protection when she's in d.c. apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection, but -- >> my god. >> that's a joke about an 82-year-old man having his home broken into, and beat over the head. the campaign responded her remarks do not need clarifying. she's standing by the joke. and we have ted cruz, a prominent united states senator amplifying that conspiracy theory, we should point out in the fbi affidavit, mr. depape confesses to this being politically motivated. he describes what he wanted to do and why he wanted to do it, debunking in his own words, the conspiracy theory. >> i want to bring in former congressman david jolly. my focus is on the people who could actually do something about this. we have social media, which seems to have no guardrails, twitter is owned by elon musk, and he was one of the first to

tweet out a conspiracy theory about what happened to paul pelosi. as willie mentioned, sitting u.s. senator ted cruz is making fun of what happened to the speaker of the house's husband. a politically motivated attack. we're in a different place. this didn't happen in the past. this did not happen with steve scalise and the shooting there. there was unity. unity called for by nancy pelosi. i believe the republicans who are promulgating these conspiracy theories, who are pushing trump's rhetoric. they are the only ones who could turn back this tide of violence. do you agree? >> i do agree with you, and i think we're in a time where it's permissible to condemn them for their actions and condemn them personally. we remember a time when politicians carried themselves with a certain dignity and comport. that's not the case anymore.

the old adage, it's okay to question their positions but not their character. we have people who have mainstreamed and monetized hate and violence speech, and it is being rewarded, and so because of that, i think it absolutely has to be condemned. this is new. you know, even as recently as my time in office, the concern in se the mid 13, 14, 15 years was around foreign actors, isis threats against sitting members of congress. my family had to get security along with other members of congress because of that. but there wasn't this neighborhood threat, this domestic threat. that really has accelerated in the last six years. all of our national intelligence and law enforcement data confirms that. sitting members of congress confirms that. to your point, mika, the only people who can help wrestle this are republican leaders and those voices on the right that are currently amplifying it, and giving it

fuel. it has to be condemned. we have to call them out, and we should expect them to do something about it. unfortunately, they're not, they're being rewarded for it. >> yeah, and jonathan lemire, at this point as we're a week away from the midterms, i fear it's going to be an election, where election deniers are now voted into office, that our politics have become so sick that people have lost their minds. when you have, again, i'll go back, i'll say it again and again. ted cruz is doing a disservice to this country with the way he is communicating about this attack on the speaker's husband. it's on people like ted cruz. i mean, kari lake, that's trump level. okay. and it's sad what's happening there, but there are people serving right now as leaders in washington, republican leaders who could do something, who have a voice, who have a platform, and they choose to use it to be destructive, and to promote

violence. there's no two ways about it. what happened to paul pelosi was politically motivated. it matches january 6th and ted cruz is making it worse not better. >> where's nancy, it's the echoes of january 6th, the exact phrase, the exact question was uttered by the rioters in the capitol, and this man when he broke into the home in san francisco, and there are big lie candidates up and down the ballot, many of them favored to win. including at this moment, kari lake who has a slight lead in the polls. this comes a week before the elections, and we know that for many voters, economic issues are front of mind, and that's where the president has been, and he's ramping up travel in the last week. florida today, pennsylvania, new mexico, a few other stops in the days ahead. he has been talking about economic issues. you were recently in a position to advise the president as to what his messaging should be. how does he talk about this? how does he talk about the violence in our political

rhetoric? how does he talk about this attack, and how do you balance this big thought about this violence breaking down the fabric of our democracy with those kitchen table issues that voters say they care most about? >> my view is you don't have to twist yourself into a pretzel. you talk about both. the threat against speaker pelosi, what happened to her husband, this is completely sick. i think we all agree on that. but the problem here is that it's not just that republicans are making jokes like ted cruz and kari lake, and that they're also silent. i don't think kari lake and ted cruz are going to come to anyone's home and threaten them. their silence and jokes are giving people a green light out there. a lot of crazy people, people following experience theories online. it's like whac-a-mole for law enforcement and people who are trying to track this down. it's hard to know who's following what experience theory and what are they going to be

acting on. i'm not a member of congress but i have had lots of threats, to my kids, my family, my home address. ted cruz is not coming to my house, thank god, but he's allowing and giving the green light for this to happen. as it comes to the campaign trail and president biden and what he's going to be doing out there, he's going to continue to make the contrast as he's expected to today on social security and medicare, what democrats are putting forward, what his plans will help do to protect that, but he also needs to address, and i expect he will, these types of threat asks this type of silence, and what it does to allow conspiracy theories to move forward and give people license to act on them. >> you look at the joke from

kari lake, you wonder what is it about the political climate and in their character that makes it difficult for them to condemn or not make a joke about whatever the person's political party is, a guy having his home broken into, coming down in his pajamas, and beaten in the head with a hammer, and he's lying in the icu, and you can't condemn that. there's something preventing that. are they so scared of their pace, they might not get reelected to their jobs. what is about the character of people and politics that we're seeing in this moment? >> how about the character is absent in them, and character is a defining factor in life. we all know. you know that from the time you're 6 or 7 years of age. taught by your parents, have character. stand up to things, the wrong that's around you, grammar school. i'm not surprised by any of this. it's shocking but not

surprising. the level of violence, it is an up tick in the level of violence. it's an up tick in our knowledge of the level of violence. we have always lived for very long times politically with the violence of indifference. you know, oh, we shrug our shoulders, you know, he said this. or he said that. the violence of language. the violence of ignorance. and it's gone back a long time in politics, specifically in the modern era of politics, i don't think i'm alone. i trace a large part of it to the late 1980s when newt gingrich decided that the way for republicans to really gain control was not to just defeat their opponents. >> right. >> but to demonize them, to destroy them, and that began it, i think. that was the incubator for what's happened now. and of course it's tragic. but it's predictable. it's predictable. we cannot, as a nation politically engage in this kind

of language, this kind of intemporate language back and forth, both sides, republicans specifically, they majored in it, they have mastered it. gene robinson, we have seen this before. none out of this while shocking is not surprising. >> you're right. it certainly is shocking. you know, i think it's worse now, mike. i really do. i think we have crossed some -- >> no doubt. >> some line. if you're going to joke about a brutal attack on an 82-year-old man in his home with a hammer and you're going to make a joke about that, as he lies in the icu, you're just a bad person. i mean, you can talk about character, that's something a good person doesn't make a joke about that.

a good person has enough empathy and compassion, and just common decency, and it just seems like there are bad people in positions of power seeking positions of power, and that's sort of at the heart of a lot of this. i mean, yes, there's a disinformation atmosphere in our communications space, and there are a lot of complications on social media, everything but a good person doesn't make that joke. let me ask david jolly, you know, as someone who's many congress, and has watched politics for a while, i mean, am i wrong? were people this bad back then or are we just getting bad people? >> look, i think our politics are on a journey. i agree with mike. you saw kind of in the late '80s

into the '90s, this idea of demonizing your opponent. that's the easiest to spot and call out. frankly, the numbers show about half of each party think their political opponents are enemy, but i think there's something more important. the bright line test is easy. there's a nuance that republicans are engaging in that i think we have to look at. that is how they present the existential question to voters, largely their constituency about the future to american culture. understand, democrats are engage instead this exercise presenting an existential question about our democracy, the right to vote, to have your vote counted. what is the scale of freedom and liberty on issues of women and reproductive rights and the ability of the lgbt community to express themselves. that's a fair, existential question that exists somewhere on the constitutional spectrum, full. that's not what republicans are doing. what ted cruz and lauren

boebert, and matt gaetz and kevin mccarthy are doing, they're presenting a cultural question, that your white privilege, your way of life, your lot in the economy is being taken from you by migrants and black america and these liberal elites and because of that, if that's being taken from you, you are allowed to defend yourself. you're allowed to protect you're, and the tell in what they're doing is they're not going to the rich elite class on the republican side saying they're coming for your wealthy, they're not doing that. they're going to white america and saying they're coming for your culture, your way of life. that is a dangerous, dangerous message. ted cruz knows that. kevin mccarthy knows that. that is the kindling on the fire that ignites this violence we're seeing. >> and in fact, if you read the fbi affidavit, the man who allegedly attacked paul pelosi framed this in terms of tyranny, and he really compared himself to an american revolution their

of the 1770s, saying i'm going to be the one to save the country from tyranny. if we talk about both sides, there are no both sides on this. this is bernie sanders on the senate floor after steve scalise was shot at the congressional baseball practice by a supporter of bernie sanders, a man who volunteered on his campaign. i have just been informed the alleged shooter at the republican baseball practice is someone who volunteered at my presidential campaign. i'm sickened by this act, let me be as clear as i can be, i condemn this action in the strongest possible terms, real change can only come through nonviolent action. anything else runs against our most deeply held american values. that was in the hours after steve scalise was shot from bernie sanders. speaker pelosi herself put out a similar statement after that. >> there were many democrats who echoed that sentiment because the sentiment was unity, was a national concern for our safety, for our politics.

for our country, for the values you have in this country, and i ought to tell you, i mean, everybody that you named david jolly absolutely could help turn the tide and is responsible for this violence and trumpist rhetoric that is violent continuing. those at the top like kevin mccarthy, an absolute failure in leadership. for not pulling it together and saying stop it, tone it down. and addressing it for what it is. here's the thing, you can lie. you can fun with the conspiracy theories. that's evil, and ted cruz, you're doing that. you can mock it like ted cruz and kari lake. you're doing that. you're sick. there's nothing else you can do about your paver. it's cruel and sick and who raised you. i want to bring it to the point jen psaki raised. you talk about a type of silence that these republican leaders

are participating in, and that is the silence about exactly what happened to paul pelosi, the fact this it was politically motivated, the fact that it had many parallels to january 6th, the fact that donald trump couch stopped the rioters on january 6th. he's the only person who possibly could have, and these republicans also could stop what looks to be a wave of violent rhetoric that is now panning out into actual violence. they could stop it, and they are choosing not to. that is a sick kind of silence. >> and it's not leadership. i mean, people are elected to serve the people in their state, in their congressional district, to stand up for values and morals, and what we're seeing here and what has become way too common place in washington is that if you are silenced, if you avoid the cameras, if you avoid

talking to the media, you can avoid the controversy around it. you can pretend you're not saying it's okay, but that silence, and i think this is what's important for us all to call out is also giving a green light for this type of behavior to move forward. and it is not -- it should not be acceptable to stay silent. something eugene robinson said which is really important, sometimes we talk about these issues like it's our elected officials and their responsibility, that's true. but the character piece of this, when i saw kari lake's comments last nigh, what it made me think of is what if my kid's friend's mom talked that way. what if my kid's teacher talked that way or a coach, and that's the type of character we should hold our elected officials to an even higher character than that, but even people in your neighborhood or community put politics aside. that type of language or jokes about, again, an 82-year-old man

who was attacked in his home. >> jen psaki, and david jolly, thank you for being on the show. we appreciate it. republican congressman and member of the january 6th committee adam kinzinger will join us. democratic governor of new jersey. and retired admiral, john kirby with the national security council and a look at the morning papers straight ahead on "morning joe." at the morning papers straight ahead on "morning joe." ♪ music: “everywhere” by fleetwood mac ♪ you ready? ♪ ♪ ♪ can you hear me calling ♪ ♪ out your name? ♪ ♪ you know that i've falling ♪ ♪ and i don't know what to say ♪ ♪ oh, i ♪ dude ♪ i want to be with you everywhere. ♪ from bolt to blazer, equinox to silverado,

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police revealing the halloween crowd was up to 100,000 people before the stampede. many crammed into narrow alleyways and 137 police officers assigned to the area. police acknowledging they had no guidelines to deal with the horror that unfolded. her video showing people could barely move it was so packed. >> there was panic coming towards us. >> reporter: people were desperately giving cpr to victims on the ground. among the dead, two young americans, anne gieske and steven blessy, 20-year-old students doing a semester abroad. she shared photos of them hiking and smiling for selfies, just hours before the tragedy. many parents here flooding a community center to find support. >> nbc's janis mackey frayer with that report. >> that is just a horrible, horrible scene that keeps getting worse. let's turn to ukraine, the mayor of kyiv says energy and

water supply has been restored after yesterday's shut down, but many parts of the country remain in the dark as russia continues it attacks on ukraine's infrastructure. nbc's molly hunter has more. >> reporter: this morning, the capital city recovering from major attacks on critical infrastructure, the russian military essentially laying siege to cities across the country. late last night, president putin threatening this is not all russian could have done. a senior u.s. military official telling nbc news monday's strikes had widespread impact on ukraine's power grid. a senior u.s. defense official adding they're directly harming the civilian population. also new overnight, a senior u.s. defense official, and senior u.s. military official telling nbc news u.s. military personnel are now inspecting ukrainian weapons inside ukraine. in an attempt to track the billions of dollars of u.s. weapons. nbc news exclusively reporting that president biden has been frustrated with president

zelenskyy in the past losing his temper at the ukrainian leader's request for help at a phone call in june. overnight, residents in kyiv filling up on water. this is the first time we've lost water during the war this woman says. it's harder than losing electricity, but she adds, we're fighting back. just 30 minutes away in the town next to one of the major power plants the russians hit on monday, mother of two, 29-year-old ola tells us she's out of gas, water and electricity. but when her kids asked if the missiles were thunder overhead, she didn't lie. >> i tell truth. and i say that it's a rocket. >> reporter: nastia, also a mother of two says they're also completely shut off. what's it like as a mother to protect your kids right now? >> she says compare it to the world, and i'm like a lioness

protecting her cubs. and without wi-fi, there's no school. . >> reporter: when was the last time you went to school sfl. >> i don't even remember, he says. >> joining us national security coordinator for the strategic communications at the white house, retired rear admiral, john kirby. thank you for your time this morning. the attacks on power and water sources, especially around the capital of kyiv, plainly attacks on the civilian population. what more can be done to stop those. >> we're going to continue to work with ukraine to boost their air defense capabilities, willie, you saw that secretary austin said we're going to accelerate some of the delivery of advanced surface-to-air missile systems we were sending them. we have gotten countries like france and spain to contribute additional midterm air defense, mid range, air defense capabilities, so we're working hard to get that.

part of it is helping them being able to prevent the attacks in the first place. we're working with allies and partners in the region to help provide whatever assistance they need to get their infrastructure back up and running again. whether that's spare parts, technical assistance. whether that's the delivery of natural gas and other fuels from outside ukraine into the country as the winter approaches. >> admiral kirby, good morning, it's jonathan lemire. i wanted to ask you about putin pulling out of the black sea grain export deal, which is significant, and we heard from president zelenskyy in the last couple of days, suggesting putin is blackmailing the world with hunger. he did so because he claims that ukraine had used a safe corridor in the black sea to attack the russian fleet. ukraine is not accepting responsibility. does the u.s. know what happened there, what are steps being taken to restore this deal, and how concerned are you about the potential for global famine

because of it? >> it's deeply concerning, jonathan. before the russians announced this temporary suspension, something like 9 million tons of food and grain were able to get out of ukraine for this deal to places all around the world where hunger is a real thing, and people are in desperate need of this food. this deal matters a lot, and we want to continue to see it go forward. it was supposed to get up for another extension here later this month. we are hopeful we can get there, and we're going to work hard with partners in the region to see if we can't get this deal extended because it does matter. they announced they wanted to suspend this temporarily, which of course the president called atrocious. 22 ships did get out of ukraine yesterday with grain on board. that was a good sign. we'll see where this goes. >> admiral, let's talk logistics and weaponry for a second. what is the degree of difficulty? is it growing and getting weaponry into ukraine, into various parts of ukraine?

>> we have not had any special difficulties, mike, getting arms and weapons and capabilities into ukraine. there is still a very robust process that takes place outside the country of course where the united states is helping coordinate the assembly and then the delivery into ukraine of all the weapons and capabilities. what i can tell you is that continues, it continues every day. there are times, mike, when we're able to get stuff from the time the president orders it, into the hands of ukrainian sols -- soldiers, this is a process that's ongoing, and we haven't seen any major disruptions to it. >> admiral, i want to shift the conversation to our politics here at home, and our national security here at home, pertaining to it. and the attack on paul pelosi, fact that san francisco police now say it was indeed politically motivated and there are obvious parallels to the january 6th attack on the

capitol in terms of what the attacker said and was studying on his web sites and blogs. and we have political leaders who are pushing conspiracy theories, and at least not making an attempt to tamp down rhetoric that could lead to political violence. could you speak to the impact on our national security and what need to be done? >> i think one of the things that's so wonderful about being an american citizen is we elect our leaders. we should be proud and confident in the process by which our representatives are put into that office, which means that we have to be open to discourse and debate of course, and to hearing all sides, but not to demonize another. i mean, the partisanship, the polarization has gotten to the point where physical safety is actually at risk. and we should be way above that. that should not be a part of our political discourse. it should not be a part of who

we are as citizens or as voters, and look, i mean, frankly, this kind of despicable violence against mr. pelosi, despicable violence against anybody in a political realm should be the easiest thing in the world to condemn. it should be so binary, right, wrong, this is not a difficult problem set. >> national security coordinator at the white house, retired rear admiral, john kirby, thank you very much for being on this morning. a disgraced former leader poised to be the head of the party which holds the majority despite a slew of legal issues. it may sound familiar in this country, in this case, we're talking about what's happening in israel. we'll go live to jerusalem where benjamin netanyahu's political comeback could begin today. we'll be right back. al comeback could begin today we'll be right back.

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38 past the hour, the midterms may be a week away in this country, but in israel, today is election day, again, an unprecedented period of political chaos has led to the country's fifth election in less than four years. polls show, benjamin netanyahu has a shot at returning to the office he lost a year ago. joining us live from a polling station in jerusalem is nbc news foreign correspondent, raf sanchez. explain how his return hinges on a deal he has made with the country's far right? >> reporter: to actually form a majority government, they're going to need the support of smaller parties, and so netanyahu has made a deal with a

far right party known as jewish power, who are surging in this election. he said he's prepared to give them cabinet posts in return for their support in parliament and, mika, that is a deal that's causing a lot of alarm here in israel but also in the u.s. back on the campaign trail and looking to mount an unprecedented political comeback. benjamin netanyahu telling joe and mika he hopes today's election will vault him back into his old job and back into power. >> i'm the opposition leader, and maybe in two weeks i'll replace this government, i hope. >> reporter: despite being on trial for criminal corruption, charges he denies, polls show netanyahu and his right wing ally slightly ahead of the liberal bloc. in his ambition to win an overall majority, netanyahu has made a pact with israel's extreme right. the far right jewish power party

are holding a rally in tel aviv but across the street, there are dozens of antiracist protesters demonstrating against them. far right parties may win more than 10% of the seats this election, and in return for their support, netanyahu says he's prepared to give a cabinet post to this man, jewish powers leader, ben gavier. supporting a terrorist group while carrying antiarab signs at a protest. last month he pulled a gun in a confrontation with palestinians, he says in self-defense. one of his key policies, expelling palestinian citizens of israel he deems disloyal to the state, including some arab members of israel's parliament. we asked his spokesperson about that policy. >> he's bringing more balance, counter balance by being a party that's like, we've got

terrorists, here's a nationalist party that's going to counter balance that. >> reporter: so he's talking about expelling arab politicians who are democratically elected some of whom say this is a jewish state. is that a democracy, dispelling people that disagree with you? >> first thing i want to say is israel is first and foremost a jewish state. it's not created to be a democracy. >> reporter: among the arab lawmakers he's threatened to expel is ahmed timi. the two men have had fiery clashes in parliament. >> he's talking about me and my colleagues, expelling them to syria or gaza, he was thinking about the whole arab minority. >> reporter: netanyahu's liberal opponents say he's brought the par right into the mainstream. >> there's no far right without netanyahu in israel. >> reporter: a cabinet miister

and leader of the center left labor party. >> it's going to be harmful to israel if we have such extreme right wing people in cabinet, in government. >> reporter: netanyahu did not respond to a request for comment but previously said the far right would be full and respected partners in government, but in washington, alarm bells, even among supporters of israel. aipac, the pro-israel lobbying group once called jewish power a racist and reprehensible party, and democratic congressman brad sherman saying these extremists undermine israel's interests and the u.s. israel relationship. a former prime minister on the cusp of returning to power, but at what cost. now, the state department says it is up to the voters of israel to choose their next government. they're not going to comment on the far right, but if jewish power does make it into israel's government, the biden administration is going to have some difficult choices of its

own including will u.s. officials sit across the table with people with a history of extremism. >> raf sanchez reporting from jerusalem, thank you very much. a look at the stories making front page headlines across the country. plus, taylor swift makes music history. we'll explain her latest feat when "morning joe" comes right back. r latest feat when "morning joe" comes right back ever wonder why they call it the american dream... and not the american goal? derek jeter! ...or plan? maybe it's because in drea, you can do anything. in dreams... you can hold your entire world in the palm of your hand. and turn time inside out... again and again. and you can do it all with your eyes wide open.

a foggy day in washington, d.c. a live look at the white house at 48 past the hour. and you hear her, taylor swift has made billboard top 100 history with her latest album "midnight" becoming the first artist to claim every spot in the list's top ten. that's incredible.

she tweeted about the record, quote, ten out of ten on the hot 100, on my 10th album? i am in shambles. the feat surpasses the old record held by drake who had nine out of ten spots. her latest album has broken other records, becoming the most streamed album in a day, and the most streamed musician in a single day on spotify. she's incredible. >> to take all ten spots is truly staggering, also, john, we were just talking. people don't really sell albums like this at this rate the way they used to. she, drake is up there, a few other ones, but she's in her own class. >> add beyonce and that's about the list. people by songs, for her, they buy albums. >> by the way, there were no big winners in last night's powerball drawing as none of the tickets sold matched all six numbers. that means the jackpot for the next drawing tomorrow night will

be for, get this, $1.2 billion. the fourth largest in u.s. history. there have been 38 consecutive drawings without a jackpot winner. no one has hit all six numbers since august 3rd. the odds of winning, 1 in 292 million, i don't know. >> by the time you take the lump, and taxes come out, $300 million, is it worth getting the ticket. >> it's about 500. >> get a good accountant. game three of the world series between the phillies and astros was called off, postponed, due to heavy rain in before the scheduled first pitch. instead the series first game in philadelphia is set for tonight. the rest of the series shifts back one day with game four tomorrow, game five set for the scheduled travel day on thursday night, which will then compete

with the nfl's week nine kickoff between the philadelphia eagles in houston against the texans. so on thursday night -- >> the undefeated philadelphia eagles. >> they're the best team in the nfl. >> thursday night you'll have philly and houston playing in the nfl and the. >> the world series will take a hit in ratings. >> how do we feel? >> i want the phillies to win. there's a touch of destiny to this team. i'd love to see them win. i don't know if they can. houston on paper is a better team, but you don't play these games on paper. houston doesn't have kyle schwarber either. >> the phillies have had their two aces go, neither pitched all that well, but still came out with a split. i think if you're the phillies you feel pretty good about that, you're coming home. we were just saying with the rainout yesterday, what they should have done today, play a doubleheader. give us a day game world series, the first one in decades. game three, game four could have

been tonight. you could have watched baseball all day long. >> that would have been so fun for me. thank you. look at this, there's a reason we're showing you this story because we love children, but millions of trick or treaters knocked on many doors for halloween last night, and the white house door was no exception. president biden and first lady dr. jill biden passed out boxes of hershey kisses to a gaggle of princesses, dinosaurs, jedis and many other trick or treaters who were the children of local first responders and national guard members. that's great. other white house neighbors passed out candy as well including nasa, the secret service and the department of transportation, and now to this, willie, this is a picture of willie's other life. he's got many lives. no, no, that's willie. >> sure was. >> that's willie as elvis. >> uh-huh. >> so that in itself is a whole lot right there. >> i should explain. so the "today" show theme was

vegas yesterday. it was halloween, which was a great theme because it opened the door -- >> oh, my god, is that you? >> look at these moves. >> yes, go get it late elvis. and that is late elvis. >> oh, my god. >> i did a lot of studying on youtube of the vegas shows. a lot of windmilling, a lot of kicking. he was into martial arts. >> sure. >> that's a keeper. >> it's from the sizzle reel. >> you know, so then in the fourth hour with hoda and jenna, i was ordained as a minister actually in the state of new york. this was a legal marriage between a couple who got married on the "today" show, two really nice 22-year-olds from utah. flew in with their families, and i actually married them. that's their wedding on national television. >> stop it. >> did they know you were going to be dressed as elvis when you married them? >> my guess is they thought hoda was going to do it, they were very excited about it, and then here comes this goon in an elvis outfit. it's a real wedding. they got married yesterday. doing that every year for the

"today" show, the producers over there, and then the snl team comes in, see, snl did the elvis wig. that jumpsuit came from honeymoon in vegas, the broadway show, so to be a part of the "today" show and the snl is so fun every year. >> please tell me you went home to your kids in that costume. >> they took that off real quick, property of snl. >> where do you go when you're the king, it's all downhill from there. >> nice moves, willie geist. new jersey governor phil murphy will join us to respond to the republican message on the issue of crime and how he thinks democrats will fare in next week's election. a live report from outside the san francisco home of house speaker nancy pelosi as we get disturbing new details about the attack on her husband paul pelosi and the attacker's bigger plans to send a message to every member of the congress. and later, someone who knows

all too well about the rise in violent rhetoric by former president trump's supporters. congressman adam kinzinger will join us. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." ♪ music: “everywhere” by fleetwood mac ♪ you ready? ♪ ♪ ♪ can you hear me calling ♪ ♪ out your name? ♪ ♪ you know that i've falling ♪ ♪ and i don't know what to say ♪ ♪ oh, i ♪ dude ♪ i want to be with you everywhere. ♪ from bolt to blazer, equinox to silverado, chevy evs are for everyone, everywhere.

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madam president, i have just been informed that the alleged shooter at the republican baseball practice this morning is someone who apparently volunteered on my presidential campaign. i am sickened by this despicable act and let me be as clear as i can be, violence of any kind is unacceptable in our society, and i condemn this action in the strongest possible terms. real change can only come about

through nonviolent action and anything else runs counter to our most deeply held american values. >> that was senator bernie sanders reacting to the 2017 shooting at a congressional baseball practice that critically wounded congressman steve scalise. welcome back to "morning joe." it is tuesday, november 1st. jonathan lemire, mike barnicle are still with us. we get to our top story. we are connecting that to the reaction paul pelosi is getting now. boy, it's a world of difference. >> what senator sanders said shouldn't be extraordinary. it's pretty easy to condemn violence, and now we're seeing with paul pelosi, the man accused of breaking into house speaker nancy pelosi's home and brutally attacking her

82-year-old husband has been hit now with a slew of state and federal charges. the department of justice has charged david depape with attempted kidnapping and assault with intent to retaliate against a federal official by threatening or injuring a family member. hours later, the san francisco district attorney charged the 42-year-old with attempted murder, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, false imprisonment, and for threats to a public official and their family. during a news conference yesterday, the d.a. said it appears the attack was politically motivated. >> what we also have learned is that the defendant brought to the location of the pelosi residence a second hammer as well as zip ties, rope, and a roll of tape. what is clear based on the evidence that we have thus far is that this house and the speaker herself were specifically targets of the defendant. >> let's bring in nbc news correspondent erin mclaughlin who's outside the pelosi home in california. erin, good morning, we don't

have to take the d.a.'s word for it. in this fbi affidavit we hear directly from this man who allegedly attacked paul pelosi saying exactly why he did this. >> reporter: yeah, that's right, willie. according to are the federal complaint, which was filed yesterday, the suspect, 42-year-old david depape gave a recorded and mirandized interview to san francisco police on the day of his arrest. according to that complaint, depape stated, quote, that he was going to hold nancy hostage and talk to her if nancy were to tell depape the truth he would let her go and if she lied he was going to break her kneecaps. depape was certain that nancy would not have told the truth. according to that same federal complaint he had intended to also use the house speaker to lure another individual to him, although the federal complaint

does not name what individual he was referring to. he also told police that on the day of the attack he was aware that paul pelosi had dialed 911. yet he chose to remain inside the home saying, quote, much like the american founding fathers with the british, he was fighting against tyranny without the option of surrender, something that according to this complaint he reiterated during the course of that interview. now paul pelosi remains in the intensive care unit in hospital here in san francisco suffering a fractured skull as well as an injury to his arm, as well as injuries to his hands. house speaker nancy pelosi releasing a statement updating the public on the condition of her husband yesterday saying that he is making steady progress, but that it will be a long road to recovery. david depape was also hospitalized following this attack, but according to the san

francisco district attorney he is expected to appear in court later today. the san francisco district attorney saying that she plans to repeal to the judge to keep him in custody without bail. guys. >> nbc's even mclaughlin outside the pelosi home in san francisco, thanks so much. so again, mika, we don't have to take the d.a.'s word for it. you don't have to listen to the media. take this man's word for you. he said he was going to kneecap nancy pelosi because she is the leader of the pack of lies told by the democratic party. if she told the truth, he would let her go. if you were wondering or reading conspiracy theories about what happened in that house, this man could not have made it more clear when he talked to the fbi. >> we've got violent rhetoric that's out of control with no guardrails, and it just makes me think about january 6th literally as the riot on the capitol was unfolding. we found out that kevin mccarthy

called president trump and was quite hysterically pleading with him to pull it back and to get these people to turn around. i wonder if kevin mccarthy will do that with members of his own party with the leaders who could actually make a difference in spreading these conspiracy theories like wildfire and promulgaing more violence. it's the same. it's the same issue. it's the same narrative. there's a big lie that's being pushed and there are leaders that helped push this violence, and kevin really cared on january 6th. he called the president and was screaming at him, begging him to pull back. begging the president, trump, to pull back the crowds, and the question is why wouldn't he do that now, since the same violent rhetoric is causing people to act in a way that is violent and deadly. >> i want to bring in mark mckinnon. he's a veteran of republican

political campaigns and former assistant director for counterintelligence at the fbi frank figliuzzi, an msnbc and nbc news national security analyst and contributor. and frank, i'm curious what you make of the federal charges that were announced against depape and also his confession. what stands out to you? >> yeah, mika, i have to confess myself that when i first heard of the violence, i said, you know, federal charges are going to be tough here because you've got that charge 18 usc 115 that requires the government to show that the motivation was indeed political. it was because of nancy pelosi's position. but this confession literally handed the government all of the statutory elements. yes, i was there for nancy. yes, i did it because of her position, and he handed the government an additional charge that i didn't see coming, which was now kidnapping because he actually added the fact that his intention was to detain her and then lure somebody else. so he handed them an additional

charge that really they probably had not yet contemplated. i'm focused squarely, mika, not just on the violent act, but on the response as you've been talking about this morning from those who are responsible for radicalizing people to violence. it's not only the lack of condemnation at the highest levels that we're not seeing, but it's worse than that. it's the denial that this even happened. it's charlie kirk from turning point going on his youtube show and saying somebody, some patriot needs to bail this guy out. it's the complete conspiracy theories circulating about this that tells me we are in a very dark place in terms of radicalization. >> yeah, we are, and again, there are some people who perhaps could take a stand on this and it would make a difference, but they're making it worse. it's seeping into our campaigns. >> we'll talk about kari lake in just a second here, mark, but just pause for a minute.

the republican politics you worked in with george w. bush and all the way up, that must seem like a lifetime ago to you. >> i was just thinking this morning about john mccain and his big moment in the debate where he didn't feed the mob, he led the mob. that's what's so depressing. you see the potential future faces of the party not condemning it but just the opposite and being rewarded for it. in california made some joke this is the second time he's been hammered referencing a dwi. he gets 30,000 likes on twitter as a response. that's the problem. we have an ecosystem that's rewarding people for bad behavior. >> you can definitely thank donald trump for that because throughout his campaign -- >> i think they're going to put trump and this kind of behavior in the rearview mirror. >> and they're doubling down. >> putting him on the windshielded again. >> think of the character mccain had at that rally.

it was a town haul meeting and she started to make a racist comment and he took the mic and said he's a good man. we just disagree on policy. >> contrast that to the republican nominee for governor in arizona. kari lake made a joke about the vicious attack on paul pelosi during a town hall last night. she was asked about school safety, but somehow found a way to have this response. it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like it is -- nancy pelosi, well, she's got protection when she's in d.c., apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection. >> mark mckinnon. like, i'm trying to decide do we talk about kari lake, or is that something that we today should not be shocked by, although i think the desensitizing of america is also why we're here, but the laughing from the

audience. >> yeah, it's so depressing again because kari lake is -- obviously has a skill set. she's a smart woman. she's doing very well in that race and will likely win that race. so there's a lot of republicans turning to people like her to say is this the future face of the republican party? and then they see something like that and they say, my god, is this where we're headed? this isn't leadership. i mean, she's feeding the mob. >> you say future face, but she is sort of the face along with other people, the face of the republican party, and it is the republican party. so my question to you is you've been out there on the trail in many states following many different candidates in the past several months. is there a channel here where fear, fear of disappointing the base and ambition to create, you know, victory for themselves by playing to that base, where fear

and ambition collide and this is the result, this intemperate language, this violent language? >> 100%, this is a party abandoning principle for power, pure and simple. there's no more principle in the republican party. it's simply about doing whatever it takes to get and hold onto power. >> so frank figliuzzi. we've been talking all morning about the political heightened rhetoric that seems to have fueled this attack. we know the suspect here has said that he's been exposed to these conspiracy theories that republicans have been espousing and have not been denying. so how concerned are you this won't be the end of the political violence? we are still a week from the midterms. we know some of these races are going to be very close. how concerned are you there could be other acts of violence, what would you be doing telling candidates out there on the campaign trail how to safeguard

themselves? >> so we've seen just on friday a joint intelligence bulletin issued by the fbi and dhs and other agencies that are telling local, state, county law enforcement you've got to step it up. we are in a heightened threat environment because of the midterm elections and specifically they cite the increase in extremist violence, domestic radicalization. they crate the increased exposure of lawmakers and even voters at polling places. it's a very prod and disturbing level of warning. what needs to get done on the lawmakers' side, is they need to actually move very quickly. capitol police in terms of protecting congress are woefully understaffed. we learned that after january 6th. they're under staffed, under funded. there has been to be emergency funding to hire democratic security agents who can travel with our members of congress. that needs to be done now. at the local level there should be emergency funding perhaps

from doj to put a marked police presence on the highest profile lawmakers and particularly at polling places, which i'm not seeing that kind of presence, at least where i live. we have more police presence at a high school football game than we do at a polling place in our time of heightened threat environment. so that needs to happen as well. we should all be taken aback by the fact that pelosi's residence, the person who is second in line to the line of succession for the presidency after the vice president had no marked police presence, even though she wasn't there. that needs to change quickly. >> frank figliuzzi, thank you very much for being on this morning, and we do have just one week to go until the midterm elections. republicans have been working to make crime a top issue for voters heading to the polls. across the country, republican candidates like dr. mehmet oz in pennsylvania or ron johnson in have turned to an old play book by branding their democrat

opponents as soft on crime. the economy still ranks as the top issue for americans, but crime isn't far behind. the data shows 71% of americans say crime is extremely or very important to their vote this year. let's bring in the democratic governor of new jersey, phil murphy. thank you very much for being on. do democrats have a hold on the crime narrative, or are they having trouble getting the message out? >> it's good to be back with you, and as if i needed it, that prior conversation depressed me even more so. you also mentioned mehmet oz, i just have to get this off my chest. he's a resident of bergen county, new jersey, not of pennsylvania. >> there you go. >> the other guys play the crime card relentlessly and shamelessly it seems every election. and the facts and their portrayal of the facts are

entirely different places. that doesn't mean that crime not an issue. it doesn't mean that we're not focused on it. but i will just say in new jersey this year, violent crimes, shootings, homicides are all down meaningfully between something like 15 and 30%. we invest deeply, not just here but as a party in the relations between law enforcement and the communities they serve. we invest in law enforcement, so they're really good at playing the card. it reminds me, frankly, it goes back to nixon's southern strategy. it's got racial elements to it. let's just call that for what it is. and here we go again. ism i feel like it's a movie we've seen time and time again. >> as a long time resident of bergen county, i'm going to stand up for bergen county here. let me ask you about the race next door with the democratic governor kathy hochul as someone who last year ran against a republican in a race that was probably closer than you thought

or hoped it would be. what is your advice to her, and how do you assess that race? why is it so close? lee zeldin is leaning in on that issue of crime. it's almost his singular focus. >> yeah, willie, it's frustrating as heck. mark was kind of -- made this point in your prior conversation. it isn't just that people are saying awful things and questioning our institutions and questioning the facts, but it's that people are going along with them. i spoke to kathy last night. i think she's doing a great job. and she's doing just what she should be doing. she is maing folks understand in new york that she is with them at that kitchen table as it relates to affordability, opportunity, rekindling the american dream. she is herself serious on crime, but i think our race last year, you rightfully point this out, i think we might have been the canary in the coal mine. in other words, previewing a lot of tightening of races that we're seeing right now. but she is terrific, but having

said that, this is a tough as heck election. she's not taking any vote for granted and neither should the rest of us. >> hey, governor, you were born and raised in a state where there are republican candidates elected to office who bear no resemblance to existing candidates and many local republican candidates, so how hard is it for you a democrat now, governor of new jersey to sound a hopeful note about the future of politics, especially bipartisan politics. >> that's a great question, mike. new jersey's been that way as well. in massachusetts you had mitt romney, in new jersey, tom cane sr. really great americans all of them. i'm the chair of the national governor's association, the vice

chair is a republican governor spencer cox in utah. he is emblematic of the goodness of that wing of the republican party, the likes of charlie ker, larry hogan who sadly are leaving the stage. i just hope -- and frankly, i'm saying this as a democrat so it's perhaps hard to believe, but it's far more than about their party. this is about the future of america. we need sanity. we need respect for our institutions. we need folks to abide by the truth and tell the truth to not make fun of some horrible violent act that happens to somebody on the other side of the aisle. when brett kavanaugh was staked out by some lunatic, we checked our politics at the door.

>> good morning, jonathan la marry, certainly polls suggest threats to democracy extremely important, abortion rights extremely important, but the top issue poll after poll after poll is the economy and inflation. what can you say as voters prepare to go to the polls in one week, what have democrats done to fight inflation, and what will you do going forward? >> i think that's another one where the other side -- and frankly quite effectively -- are playing a card that is disconnected with the facts. congress passed without one republican vote, i believe, the inflation reduction act. that's going to take time to sink in, but that's a game changer. the president signed it. he championed it. that's a big deal for kitchen tables around the country. and that is still in our future. that's to come. in new jersey we had a record $2 billion -- willie will appreciate this from bergen county -- property tax relief

program. it's historic by any measure. laura kelly, canceling the grocery tax in kansas. democrats in the face in some cases of realities that are beyond our control like a war in europe that is taking place, democrats have acted and will continue to act. >> so you mentioned dr. oz's new jersey roots, governor. here's something he said in an interview last night. >> listen, this is important, we do not have a republican senator north of north carolina on the atlantic coast until you get to maine if i don't hold this seat, and there's been a republican senator in pennsylvania most of my life. i'm going to keep one here as well. where is he from anyway? >> i mean, come on. he's from jersey. i just want to make sure everybody knows that. and by the way, it isn't about whether we have a republican senator or not, it's whether or not we have an adult, somebody

who's responsible regardless of what party they're in, and he's not that guy. >> new jersey governor phil murphy, thank you very much for being on this morning, and we'll close this block with mark mckinnon. final thoughts. we're one week away from i think what could be some pretty jarring midterms. >> well, first of all, democrats should look at phil murphy for messaging help. i mean, this is a guy who really gets it. one thing i'll say about the election, you know, everything that we look at is based on past predictions. this is unusual in a unique cycle, and lots of things are happening that have never happened before. let's check our cards, let's see what the voters say next week. >> fair enough, mark mckinnon, thank you very much for being on this morning. still ahead on morning joe, adam kinzinger will join us. and candidates make their

final pitch. the one and only steve kornacki will be here to break down where things stand with one week to go and how long we could be waiting for results on election night when "morning joe" returns. when "morning joe" returns

president biden will hit the campaign trail today with a trip to florida. in fort lauderdale the president is set to discuss what his administration has done to strengthen medicare and social security protections for americans. the president also will reunite with former president barack obama on the trail this weekend. the white house says the two leaders will take the stage together in philadelphia on saturday to stump for pennsylvania's democratic nominees for governor and senate, josh shapiro and john fetterman. let's bring in nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at his post at the big

board one week from the midterms. steve, good morning, what are you looking at? >> yeah, well, we've been monitoring the big picture political climate. talk a look at this, new numbers from gallop asking folks here what is the top issue or really what are the issues you consider extremely important as you make up your mind. and you can see not surprisingly, the economy continues to finish first. you see abortion crime, gun policy, immigration. you then ask folks who cite the economy as extremely important or abortion as extremely important. you ask them are you going to vote for the democrats or the republicans. is tr a partisan advantage on the issues at all. this kind of jumps out on four of the top five, republicans with the advantage on three of those with significant advantages, over 30 points on the economy, nearly 30 points on crime. more than 30 on immigration, slight on gun policy. the one democratic advantage here, it is double-digits, is on the issue of abortion.

obviously democrats have been playing that up as aggressively as they can since the supreme court ruling back at the end of june. you look at the screen, you look at these issues and you say that should add up to a pretty overwhelming republican climate. where it gets a little bit complicated is you take a look at the generic ballot, and we've been tracking this every week. do you want democrats, do you want republicans to be running congress. when you put it that way to people, well, we're getting some mixed signals. there's a couple of different places out there that average these together. we'll give you a sense of the range here. real clear politics, they've been doing this for 20 years. their average has the republican s leading by a little bit under three points. 538 which also does this, it's not all of the same polls between these two. there's a different formula involved here. there's some complexity. the 538 average has it a tick under a point. republican advantage on both of them. a difference of about one point

and three points. we're talking about a situation where republicans need a net gain of five seats to get control of the house. there is a big question about potentially the magnitude. is it something they just get by a small margin or is there a bigger wave that takes shape. so that's some expense there on the generic ballot compared to those issues polls i was just showing you. you take a look at the senate battleground, again, in blue, five most vulnerable democratic seats in red, the republicans need a net gain of one seat to break that 50/50 tie that now goes to democrats because of kamala harris. of those democratic seats, take a look at the polling averages in those democratic held seats. you can see that georgia right now, herschel walker a slight lead over raphael warnock, georgia's a runoff state. nobody in the polling average is

over 50%. potentially, let's just say for the sake of showing you how this could play out. if georgia flipped to the republicans or if one of these other states republican flipped to the republicans, then democrats have to flip one from the republican side to maintain balance, to counter the republican gain, and that's why all year pennsylvania has loomed so large. barack obama, swrooid are going to be in philadelphia on election eve with john fetterman. it's a state this biden won in 2020. it's the only one of these five republican seats here where consistently indicates have led in the polling. it's gotten closer. you can see on the average, fetterman up by one point. it was basically nine over the summer. it's come all the way down to one a week before the election. if democrats get this, this would be a pickup. it's a republican held seat right now, and it would allow them to lose one from this column because we show you

georgia, but nevada looks shaky for them as well. arizona they've gotten a little more encouraging news in the polling, especially yesterday from "the new york times." new hampshire i might add looms as a bit of a wild card. a lot of national republicans gave up on this new hampshire race. they swung and missed at recruiting a bunch of republicans they thought could win the state. the polling that's coming back in new hampshire a lot closer than expected. it looms as a wild card. if one of these goes, democrats knead to counter it over here. pennsylvania continues to loom as by far their best shot. you'll see obama, biden, the whole crew in philadelphia. >> bringing out the big guns in pennsylvania. a little bit of a viewers guide for election night, which we should be prepared for like we were last time in terms of counting the votes. pennsylvania, for example, they don't start to count the mail-in vote until election day to the great frustration of a lot of people.

what might this look like as it rolls out? >> cautious optimism. i'll go back to that map here, that this will be quicker than 2020. if you remember in 2020, pennsylvania got called finally for joe biden saturday at about 11:30 a.m. that was the call that gave biden the presidency. at that point we still hadn't called north carolina. we still hadn't called georgia. we still hadn't called arizona, nevada. that's what happened in 2020. there's some hope it might be a little more efficient this year. the big issue in pennsylvania in 2020 was they had never done mass scale mail-in voting before. they did. they weren't prepared for it, and the state law was never changed to allow them to process ahead of time. that hasn't changed, but the number of people voting by mail may be significantly lower this tame. the counties may be more prepared to deal with what they do get this time. also, pennsylvania has

financially incentivized the counties to stay open around the clock until they can get things counted. so there's some reason to think that pennsylvania may be quicker. you look at north carolina, 75,000 vote victory for donald trump. it was a close race in 2020. again, the volume of mail voting high when you consider a few years ago, but potentially lower, significantly lower when you compare it to 2020, and the mail is what slowed things down in north carolina. north carolina does allow for the preprocessing and the pretallying of the early vote and the mail-in vote. we could get a much earlier read out of north carolina. we could get an earlier read out of fwa. there are some signs from these states that we might know a little bit more a little bit sooner. i do think arizona, it's pretty established in arizona, if the races are close in arizona, it's going to take a couple of days, and nevada too could take a couple of days as well. if it ever came down to democrats actually having a shot to hang onto the house, and

we're talking like they end up with 220, 221 seats, that democratic majority would ultimately be made in the state of california. it would come down to california, a whole bunch of districts there. california will take a month to count the votes in those districts. if house control really is ever on the line, it's election month. coming up, our next guest says trump republicans are banking on a simple formula, the crueller you are, the better your conservative cred. congressman adam kinzinger unpacks the state of today's gop straight ahead on "morning joe." ubrelvy helps u fight migraine attacks. u rise to the challenge. u won't clock out. so u bring ubrelvy. it can quickly stop migraine in its tracks within 2 hours... ...without worrying if it's too late or where you are. unlike older medicines, ubrelvy is a pill that directly blocks a protein believed to be a cause of migraine.

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joining us now, former new york city mayor bill de blasio, and we're going to talk about the strategy that democrats have been employing, and you say

voting is emotional and that we need to move people. what democrats, what issues are best for that and what democrats are employing them the best? >> i was looking at steve's report. let's not forget ohio here, tim ryan has actually said something. i think he's had incredible emotional appeal across the aisle. he's about working people, shown a lot of independence in his own approach. people know that he is looking out for his state, his voters. i think tim is a great exact pi of what we need more from democrats. he's giving people a sense of we're going to fight back against some of the problems and reempower working people in the process. >> you can speak to strategies that have worked and not worked. what other races could they do more to connect with voters from what you've seen out on the campaign trail? >> my experience has been if you get to the closing argument, nd

you're still on the defensive, you're losing. if you're not turning to your own message and some version of hope and optimism. we all think '08, obama is the exemplar of this. what we've seen, democrats have to turn out. they're not just going to turn out out of anger. you were so powerful in the previous block, mika, on the question of what's happening in this country, but every day voters are thinking for better or worse, they're thinking more about the kitchen table, the pocketbook. democrats got to speak to that. i think tim ryan's done that. i think fetterman's done that brilliantly, notwithstanding the challenges he's faing personally. he's done that brilliantly by giving people the sense his focus is on everyday working people and he can do something to shake up the status quo. that's going to motivate people. there's going to be a sense that there's actually a reason to come out and vote. >> mara.

>> are democrats, other than folks like tim ryan not really speaking to independent n real their base. >> that's right. >> very effectively either, can you talk a little bit about what you think actually is necessary to turn out the base in this moment and what the heck is going on in new york where the governor's race has become strangely and unusually close? >> well, it's some of the same. i think very highly of kathy hochul. i think she is a very relatable human being. i haven't seen enough of that message of sort of i'm on your side, i'm one of you. i think she could do this message very plausibly, and i would argue she's done a good job of putting money back in people's pockets in the context of the post-pandemic reality, post-pandemic reality, you know, she's focused on child care. she's focused on things like some tax relief for middle

class, working class people. but i think the message has been much less of that kind of strong i'm on your side, i'll fight for you, and i think she still has this last week to get that across effectively because of her own human qualities. i think overall the problem for democrats, i agree with you not speaking to the base is what will we do next for you. there's been these legislative victories. i mean, really some real action on prescription drug costs. that's as kitchen table as it gets. that affects millions and millions of people. the infrastructure bill is going to ultimately help tens of millions of people. but what i think has been lacking is what's the next big step. so i would urge democrats at this point to speak to the base from the position of not just look how awful the other side is because a lot of people stay home on that. but here's our next big idea. whatever that candidate is. tim ryan, for example, he speaks

about fixing what's wrong in the global situation with china, fighting back against some of the dominance that china has economically, reempowering working class people, factories in ohio and in america again. that's a vision you can latch on. you know who did that very effectively tragically in 2016? donald trump. well, that should be a democratic message with a vision of how to actually share prosperity with working people. tim ryan's doing it, john fetterman is doing it. i'd like to see everyone doing that. >> that all may be true. the issue in this governor's race in new york is crime, crime, crime. every ad that lee zeldin puts up is about crime. every rally, and the rallies are growing. ron desantis was in town a few days ago. he's having huge rallies. he's getting very close to the sitting governor in a blue state. >> glenn youngkin also joining him on the campaign trail. republicans have made crime an issue. you're uniquely suited to talk about this. the nation's largest city, the nation's largest police force.

we know the defund the police talking point, bogus. there are very few democrats who support that. that said, republicans have made headways on this issue. crime is up, and there are concerns about policing. there are concerns about troerns and people getting -- not getting out in the streets again, suspects back on the streets. how can democrats counter that message, which is proving very effective for republicans? >> people are fearful and there's really fair reasons people feel it. the first thing for democrats to do is empathize. the second thing to do is say where we're going. there's that adage in baseball, play the ball, don't let the ball play you. right now republicans are the only ones with a clear message. and it's in many ways a specious message, but it is consistent. i would argue in the case of new york, for example, kathy hochul has an opportunity to say here's where we're going next, and what next looks like to me is rebonding the relationship between police and the community. a funding community based

solutions to violence, like the violence interrupters. there are tangible things that actually are going to turn around crime. she ask eric adams did a good thing by putting more police into the subways in the last few weeks. that's a step forward, but i think that vision piece has to be more than let's just talk about bail. that's not going to solve the crime issue bluntly. the question is how do we do something on the ground. i would argue closing argument has to be i'm going to bring police and community back together. i'm going to support community members who are stopping violence. >> i want to bring george conway back into the conversation. as we listen to bill de blasio and others talk about what the democrats need to do, what the issues are that we should be debating in this election, the midterms, one week away. you have election deniers that are running for office. we have kari lake who's, you know, using in her closing message jokes about nancy pelosi's husband being attacked

and getting a huge laugh from an audience that seems equally juiced up to be cruel. you have ted cruz on social media who's pushing conspiracy theories about paul pelosi and getting tens of thousands of laughs on the internet all based on -- all using this tragedy to get a moment out of it, a cruel moment, and you know, we talk about democracy being at stake in these midterm elections, and yet, so many of these races are so close. so tough question, but what to you make of that? >> what i make of it is that people aren't concerned about abstract questions or even practical questions about the future of democracy. it's just not, you know, they're not political scientists. they're not psychologists. they're not sociologists. they worry about things that affect them on a daily basis. and that's what we saw, we see

those numbers about crime, immigration, all sorts of things, and you know, if this were an ordinary time, i'd still be a registered republican and i'd voed republican because mostly the republican policies over the years have tended to what i would support. but today it doesn't matter anymore. none of that matters. >> george, would you vote for herschel walker? would you say that's -- >> no, never, the issues that impact me, i'm going to pick this candidate. he is fit. would you vote for him? >> no, but that's the problem. i mean, the problem is we have reached this diseased state in the republican party where we're producing candidates, they're producing candidates like that. and to me i can't kind of relate to this whole discussion in a weird way because like to me, v and that single issue for me is, you know, whether or not you support democracy and whether or not you stand up against disinformation, and it is scary.

i mean, we saw that, you know, steve had that board up there with ten senate races. eight of them were under 3.5% in the margins. which means basically these races are close to or within the margin of error, and to anybody who says they know what's going to happen next tuesday is just wrong. wednesday morning everyone's going to say it's obvious this was going to happen, whatever it was. >> george conway, nice closing note there. and former new york city mayor bill de blasio. thank you as well. in the words of one far right oath keeper, quote, i was acting like a traitor. we'll go to the courtroom for the latest on the criminal trial of those accused of storming the capitol. before we begin, i'd like to thank our sponsor, liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. and by switching, you could even save $652.

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much of the world will be watch brazil today to see what now outgoing president jair bolsonaro will do. bolsonaro lost sunday's presidential runoff election to da silva by less than two points and so far has not officially conceded. in fact, bolsonaro has remained out of public view since election night and has not delivered any remarks since losing. one of brazil's largest newspapers reports his team drafted a concession speech bolsonaro was to give yesterday but didn't. he's hinted for months he and his team may challenge the election results if they did not go his way. since sunday's election loss, bolsonaro's supporters have set up 200 roadblockades and the nation is bracing for further

unrest. president biden has spoke-elect asked about the call yesterday. >> how was the call today? you had a call with lula from brazil, the president-elect. how was it? >> it went very well. putting a team together to get together and discuss what we can do together. he wants to focus on the environment, democracy, and supporting his country. >> jonathan lemire, what do you see happening here? >> first of all, this is a significant victory here if lula -- with this narrow win. liberal ascendance in brazil returning to power. he's pro climate change, wants to protect the amazon. this is a significant measure here. i think it was telling how quickly so many world leaders, including president biden, rushed to congratulate him because they want this to happen. he said he would not necessarily concede or accept the election results. he has not said he would lead office. we're seeing civil unrest

already. the airport in sao paulo has been blocked off, truckers parking on highways rending him impassable. we think we'll hear from bolsonaro today. there was a report yesterday he would concede. that didn't happen. the longer this goes, the more worried the international community will be. we'll go live to georgia where the latest polling shows raphael warnock leading by three points over his republican opponent herschel walker.

okay season 6! aw... this'll take forev—or not. do i just focus on when things don't work, and not appreciate when they do? i love it when work actually works! i just booked this parking spot... this desk... and this conference room! i am filing status reports on an app that i made! i'm not even a coder! and it works!...

i like your bag! when your digital solutions work, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. our hearts are broken over the assault that was made really on all of us, but personally heartbroken over the -- of what

happened to steve scalise, our colleague. >> it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like it is. nancy pelosi, well, she's got protection when she's in d.c. apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection. [ laughter ] but -- >> grace versus mockery, humanity versus cruelty. the republican candidate for governor of arizona, kari lake, cracking a flippant joke last night about the brutal attack of speaker nancy pelosi's 82-year-old husband. compare that, as you saw, with speaker pelosi's compassionate response to a shooting that critically wounded her republican colleague steve scalise. welcome back to "morning joe." 6:00 a.m. on the west coast. 9:00 a.m. on the east coast. with willie and me, jonathan lemire and mike barnicle here. joe will be back with