>> when you go to bed at night and put your head on that soft pillow, you know oz will be doing exactly what you want him to do, if you are there next to him. >> you're moving into a land of crazy. >> we are all domestic terrorists. >> where's goliath? >> and domestic incompetence. >> science said that man came from apes. if that is true, why are there still apes? >> of the inconceivable. >> do you hate mexicans? >> you crossed over into the republican crazy zone. ha-ha ha-ha! >> one of the latest ads from the republican accountability project. >> i've got three words for you. >> yeah? >> weirdos. >> yep. >> freaks. >> yep. >> insurrectionists. >> mm-hmm. >> i mean, this extreme maga thing or whatever the house is calling it. >> weirdos, freaks, and insurrectionists. >> they're really strange. >> welcome back to "morning joe."

it's 6:00 a.m. on the west coast, 9:00 a.m. on the east coast. mike barnicle and jonathan lemire are still here. >> where did dr. oz come from? >> oprah. oprah literally brought him, you know, all of his fame. she lifted him up, she really, she really -- she's the one who brought dr. oz -- >> are you saying -- >> oprah winfrey. >> -- she's to blame for that? >> she created him. >> she's been very quiet during this campaign. >> i haven't heard from her during the campaign. >> didn't she get dr. phil, too? >> yeah. >> dr. phil and dr. oz. >> all the doctors. >> dr. oz should, you know, he owes everything to her. >> yeah, wow. quite a way to -- >> we've got a lot to get to this morning, including the latest -- >> and didn't he get called in front of congress for all of his phony -- >> yes, actually claire mccaskill actually grilled him during that time he was being -- >> remember the weight loss pill. >> the weight loss pill that didn't work, to say the least. and a lot of other --

>> and then you would grow hair on your knuckles. it was really weird. >> his response was, no, this stuff doesn't work, but i'm here to inspire the viewer. that was his answer. >> but it was one after another. >> i know. >> here's a magic sprout that -- >> yeah. >> yeah. really performative stuff with no actual medical value. anyhow. a lot to get to this hour. the latest on the break-in at the home of house speaker nancy pelosi and her husband. we are learning disturbing new details about the brutal attack. and reporting that the actual moment of the home invasion was caught on camera. >> oh, that's good news! >> cameras that the u.s. capitol police failed to monitor. >> oh, that's bad news. >> also ahead, in a few hours, the fed is expected to raise rates again, but could also signal a slowdown of the size of the hikes. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin will join us to explain that. plus, overnight, north korea fired off more than 20 missiles,

triggering air raid sirens and evacuations in south korea. we'll bring you the latest on the historic escalation across the korean peninsula. >> let's start this hour, though, with the midterms. just six days away now, control of the house and senate at stake, and top leaders of both parties fanning out across the country in that final push for the votes. nbc's chief white house correspondent, kristen welker, has the latest. >> reporter: in the final sprint to the midterm elections, both parties are calling in their heavyweights to deliver closing arguments in key battleground states. >> i'm here to ask you to vote. >> reporter: overnight, former president barack obama rallying democrats in nevada, where polls show incumbent senator catherine cortez masto in a tight race with republican adam laxalt. mr. obama taking on republicans. >> that's their agenda. they're not interested in actually solving problems. they're interested in making you angry. and finding somebody to blame. >> reporter: mr. obama is

officially set to reunite with his longtime political partner, president biden, on saturday in critical pennsylvania, where democrat john fetterman is running neck and neck with republican mehmet oz in that closely watched senate race. but it's a different story in florida, where democratic senate nominee val demings and the nominee for governor, charlie crisis, are both trailing their gop rivals, senator marco rubio and governor ron desantis. with his own job approval ratings underwater, president biden campaigning for demmings and crist, making part of his closing argument about threats to democracy, pointing to nearly 300 gop candidates on the ballot who have denied or questioned the results of the 2020 election. >> democracy is on the ballot this year. >> reporter: in georgia, republicans getting a boost from former vice president mike pence, lending his support to governor brian kemp. now leading his democratic opponent, stacey abrams in a new

poll. >> we've got to re-elect brian kemp. >> reporter: but the georgia senate race is still fiercely competitive, despite numerous revelations rocking the contest in the last month, with republican herschel walker and democratic senator raphael warnock deadlocked. a sign that control of congress is still very much up for grabs and could come down to all-important independent and undecided voters, with less than a week to go until the midterms. >> nbc's kristen welker reporting there. a ton of early vote in georgia. it will be interesting to see which way that breaks. record breaking. >> by the way, by the way, we talked about this before. when we heard all about jim crow 2.0. what did we say? we said, even with the new laws in georgia, it was easier to vote in georgia than it was in new york. and what -- what's the early vote showing? early vote is showing, it's easier to vote in georgia than in new york. i mean, willie, it's crazy. again, it's like, you keep --

people talk about how horrible these things -- they took -- they all-starred the game out of atlanta. the numbers are huge. and again, people could say, they're voting in spite of that. okay, but it is still easier to vote in georgia, let me say it again, than new york city. sometimes, you just hold back on the comparisons to jim crow. >> yeah, even stacey abrams didn't want the all-star game pulled out of the state of georgia. and we are, as i said, seeing record-breaking early voting in that state. >> joining us now, republican political strategist and publisher of the bulwark, sarah longwell. she's executive director of republican accountability project, and host of the focus group podcast. also with us, nbc news national affairs analyst and executive editor of the recount, john heilemann joins us. >> john heilemann, let's start with you. a lot of polls, and those polls are close. pick the state, states, we could start with states that democrats are supposed to run away with

like new hampshire. close, we could pick states where we heard a week ago that democrats were finished. nevada, close. states where democrats should be ten points ahead right now, like arizona. close. georgia, close. you know, you actually had chuck schumer saying that georgia was slipping away. that doesn't look like georgia slipping away. poll after poll shows that all within the margin of error. man, this is, again, i've said, this is like 2014 a lot. this could break either way. what are you hearing on the ground? >> well, i'm in nevada, joe. i was out here with -- in your favorite town in las vegas, mike barnicle's favorite town, i know -- >> love las vegas. >> i was checking the sports books last night thinking that i would run into mike somewhere here, but, you know, barack obama here, he did a big event, north las vegas last night. huge turnout, lots of thousands of nevadans came out last night for the whole of the democratic

ticket. there's, you know, the debate over what's going on in the state in both the senate race and the governor's race is intense. and there was a poll last night from emerson that has adam laxalt up 5 at 50 with senator cortez masto at 5 back. there's also been polls that show them neck and neck. that, again, is another margin of error poll. so, what it's -- and there's an incredible amount of debate taking place. some of it pretty well informed, some of it utterly ill informed on social media and other places about polling methodology, about republican polls and democratic polls and people trying to rig the polling averages and all kinds of stuff. we're now not just talking about people rigging and skewing polls, but trying to rig and skew polling averages. i'll tell you here on the ground in nevada, in every one of these states i've been in over the course of the last four or five weeks, what it feels like is it feels tight everywhere you go. there's are issues where you look at specific parts of the

democratic base. in this state in particular, the latino vote. where there are democrats that are nervous about the fact that there's not as much latino enthusiasm for, particularly for senator -- for the incumbent senator, for senator masto, cortez masto, that the question that she's the first latino senator in the united states history. you would have thought, just on that basis alone and the fact that she's -- the fact that she's been a reliable vote for what they voted for, when they voted for her six years as a reliable democrat, you would have thought that she would have had very high latino enthusiasm. she doesn't have that. and a lot of these polls show that laxalt, neck and neck with her for the latino vote. if they end up splitting the latino vote here in nevada, that's bad news for the incumbent senator, the first latina senator in history. but is it going to be close here? is there a chance that a lot of these races are not going to get -- are not going to be called in a reliable way on election night? i think that's the main message that i can bring you from all of these battleground states.

is that they're all tight enough that anybody who expects that all of them are going to be resolved with clarity on the night of november 8th during the early morning of november 9th is probably wrong. and we'll probably be looking at, even aside from the election deniers who have already said that they're going to contest any election they don't win, the people like dr. oz, for instance, even without -- you take those people out of the picture, a lot of these races feel like they're going to be so close that we're going to be talking, litigating them for some number of days after the election. >> that will be the next phase of the story. sarah, the latest "new york times" siena college poll finds neck and neck races in key battles and one notable trend, many voters want republicans to control the senate, but prefer the democrat in their state. so look at this polling from arizona, georgia, nevada, and pennsylvania. likely voters in arizona prefer that republicans control the senate by a margin of seven points, yet democratic candidate mark kelly leads by six points.

in georgia, republicans lead among likely voters by four points, yet democrats raphael warnock is up by three points. in arizona, the race is tied among the candidates, even the voters prefer republicans' control in the senate, while in pennsylvania, the race is even for party control, but democratic candidate john fetterman is up five points. sarah, these juxtapositions speak to the issue of candidate quality that mitch mcconnell had expressed concern over, does it not? >> that's right. i mean, look, the fundamentals of this race are that republicans should be running away with it, with inflation where it is, with the issue of crime where it is. this should be a major wave republican year. the reason that it is not is because of these candidates. you know, donald trump went out there and he, you know, said, hey, we want people like herschel walker. we're going to, you know, pull

people like dr. oz over the finish line in their gop primaries. and these candidates are a really tough sell with swing voters. these swing voters are interesting, that many of them are people who voted for donald trump in 2016, but they voted for joe biden in 2020. and they did that because it was really a rejection of trump. but many of them are kind of center-right in their orientation, right-leaninging independents or moderate republicans, but they don't like these trumpy, weird, crazy, election-denying candidates. and so there are certain races, pennsylvania's one of them, where with dr. oz, you're seeing those races tighten, because a lot of republicans, they are kind of coming home, and they're saying, i'm going to hold my nose and vote for oz, even though i don't like him. but in a bunch of other places, the swing voters can't get there. i'm really interested to see what happens in a place like georgia. georgia is still a red state

with kind of a purple center. and republicans should be doing really well there. but because they nominated somebody with as much baggage as herschel walker, i would say that that likely goes to a runoff. so, yes, candidate quality along with the dobbs decision, which has kind of evened out some of the enthusiasm is the reason that it is so difficult to predict which way these races are going to go, and why they're so tight, even though all the fundamentals say republicans should be running away with it. >> and sarah, i'm so with you with georgia. that's the one where, you know, i look at that close polling going, i'm not so sure that even show georgia is still a red state, i'm not so sure that that swings towards warnock, just because the continued avalanche of extraordinarily bad news for herschel walker, which would have destroyed a political candidate five years ago. so jonathan, one thing that i think that we should at least warn our viewers about is all of these polls are so close. and you look at polling from

2016, it got it wrong. you could find very few people that thought that donald trump could win. you look at 2020, got it wrong. and this is important. it wasn't just media polls. and this -- this is so important, by the way, excuse me one second, by the way, jonathan, i need to talk to the viewers. >> go for it. >> so listen, everybody talks about media polls. the weekend before the 2020 race, the speakers are -- kevin mccarthy's office, republican leadership, they were sending out distress signals. they were sending out reports. they said the polls, their internal polls were breaking so badly against them. that it was going to be a bloodbath. that democrats were going to win massively. and that didn't happen. and so everything that you're hearing now, it's a guess.

best guess, but we saw what happened with best guesses in '16. what happened with best guesses in '20. the polls for -- some polls were all right in some states, but others were way off. and jonathan, when you have so many close races, not only do we not know in the media, but even looking what happened in 2020, even the smartest pollsters internally for these candidates, they're just whistling past graveyards. they really don't know which voters in the end are going to come out. >> a lot of the campaigns don't know. we're also seeing a phenomenon of some new voters. we had that in '16 and '20. where trump drew some new voters to the polls. people whose polls weren't picking up. democrats are hopeful they're seeing that now for voters who are coming out for the first im because of abortion rights in the wake of the roe v. wade decision. that that could play into this, too. walker seems to be the post-trump candidate where trump -- we all talk about how he's reinvented politics, where nothing seems to stick to him, walker seems to also be that

way. but john heilemann, we just established, these races are close. and we're almost certainly not going to have an answer, at least for the senate for days, considering how slow pennsylvania counts. and we know that arizona and nevada do as well. but let's talk. you've been on the road a lot. let's talking closing arguments. democrats in particular that i've talked to are struggling a little bit. they want to focus on the economy, but they also know they need to hit on threats to democracy. they need to know -- they need to talk to voters about this. in fact, just this morning, white house advising that the president is going to give a speech about threats to democracy in the days ahead. what are you hearing out there from democrats? what's the message that seems to be breaking through? >> well, jonathan, i don't know -- it's really hard to measure what's breaking through. i'll tell you what every voter is concerned about, right? and there's no question about, the one thing the polls are getting right is that the thing that has most helped republicans in this post labor day period is the reemergence and reassertion of economic concerns driven to a

large extent by inflation, into the -- into the foreground of everyone's discussion. it's just the thing that everybody now is talking about. like, all you hear about is the economy, the economy, the economy. that has favored republicans enormously. and it's hard for democrats to break through the noise about the economy and inflation. and i'll tell you, you know, last night here in nevada, barack obama kind of went straight at that. he's trying to give people a, in these events he's doing, he's trying to give democrats in some ways a kind of a talking points in a way. take it from me the structure of an argument, and how you have to take the economic concerns, the concerns about crime, but also the concerns about the overall state of the nation and knit those together. and at the core of those, obama is talented enough to be able to pull all of those together. and he puts the threat of democracy in the middle of that. he weaves those arguments together and says that threats to democracy are tied to the economy. they're tied to crime. they're tied to everything you care about. there are not a lot of

democratic candidates that are talented enough to be able to weave them together the way barack obama does. but elissa slotkin last night in michigan, she's got the endorsement of liz cheney, she did an event with liz cheney last night, and she's another one trying to take a stab at pulling all of those arguments together and saying, it's not about one of these things or the other about these things, it's about all of them. and if you're not for the continuation of a real genuine, legitimate american democracy, all of the rest of it falls apart. that's the thing that the democrats -- if democrats can find that sweet spot, they might be able to break through on that front. but man, it's hard to pull all of those disparate threads together if you're not barack obama or someone of that level, and there are not that many people at that level in the party. >> congressman slotkin was on our show last hour touting that endorsement from cheney, who came to the state of michigan for her. there's also another argument that some analysts are looking at. a potential rise in split-ticket voting this midterm election.

nbc news correspondent dasha burns reports on that from pennsylvania. >> have you ever split your ticket before? >> never. >> i don't think we have. >> in the philadelphia suburbs, daniel and jacqueline devine are parents of two with one on the way. they're registered republicans, but won't be going all-red on election day. so you're planning to vote for oz? >> yes. >> for senate. but shapiro for governor. >> yeah. >> why not mastriano? >> shapiro's shown that he seems to be more of like a moderate politician. he's experienced. >> do you worry mastriano is too extreme? >> yes. >> reporter: in the race for governor, some traditional republicans like the devines are leaning away from their party's nominee, doug mastriano, criticized by democrat josh shapiro as an extremist. >> my body, my choice is ridiculous nonsense. >> what i know about mastriano comes from shapiro's advertisements. >> looking at the senate race,

what pushed you towards oz instead of fetterman? >> i think that fetterman, during the debate, he wasn't able to say what he was going to do and how he was going to solve the specific problems. >> reporter: in pennsylvania, it's not just a smattering of voters. several unions are splitting endorsements between parties in the state's top races. pollster quiz boarig says it's about who's on the ballot. why are we seeing this trend now? >> i think it's in some places a reflection of the party's going to the extremes. >> reporter: in the governor's race, polling shows democrat josh shapiro leading his republican opponent by a wide margin, while the senate race is neck and neck. >> a lot of the candidates are just unacceptable, even by your standards, you find them not meeting the quality that you want. candidate quality opens the door for split-ticket voting. >> reporter: polls in other states like georgia, wisconsin, and arizona also show one party could win the race for governor while the other wins the senate seat. so day one of construction today. >> day one, dasha. day one.

>> reporter: rob bresnahan, a real estate developer in lieu lucerne county, parks, feels like he has to get creative. >> i'm a split ticket voter, because the political divide is too far, so the concept is to make a blended purple. >> we'll see most people stay with their party, but in the end, in determining the outcome, this group of voters could be pivotal. >> we all fall down. >> reporter: a group of voters for whom candidates matter. >> dasha burns reporting from pennsylvania. sarah, what is your sense of how much of an impact this might have, which is to say someone who says, i'm a republican who likes brian kemp. he's the kind of republican who reminds me of what it used to mean to be a republican, but herschel walker, that's a bridge too far for me. or in the state of pennsylvania, the same could be said for dr. oz, but i can't vote for doug mastriano, a guy who was at the capitol on january 6th. is this actually going to make a difference? >> yeah, i think it could be decisive. and this has been one of the main features of the focus

groups over the last few months, is how many people i'm seeing who are saying they're going to split their ticket. and who understand like how extreme some of these candidates are, and even though they're republicans, are refusing to vote for them. i've had a lot of focus groups in georgia where people were going 100% for governor kemp. and almost 100% for warnock. in a state like ohio, i mean, right now, tim ryan is winning around 17 or 18% of dewine voters, the republican governor. and so, yeah, i think that people splitting their tickets and actually looking at the candidate quality, and nowhere is it more apparent than pennsylvania, where doug mastriano, who's such a radical candidate. i've done maybe five pennsylvania swing voters, and i'm not sure i've found any of the swing voters who were willing to vote for doug mastriano. so even in a place like wisconsin, where you've got

governor evers, i think there are going to be some people that are willing to stick with eavers. so i think that these swing voters are the ones who will decide which way a lot of these races go. >> so, john heilemann, there are always surprises in races. i remember way back in, was it, gosh, what year was it? '94? that mario cuomo lost as governor of new york. nobody expected that to happen. george pataki came out of nowhere and won. right now people are talking about the possibility of that happening in new york state. new york reverse waking up this morning to a "new york post" headline talking about a mother who was shot in front of her child from a guy who can -- a multiple offender that was released. it's an issue in new york state. it's an issue in new york city. i don't know if that is quite

going to -- we'll see. we'll see if there's going to be a shock in that race. i still think hoch will probably wins that one. but there are other races out there, aren't there, that people are going to wake up the next morning and go, wow, i can't believe that person lost. >> yeah, look, the one from '94 i always remember. you'll remember the congressman from washington state, who was the speaker of the house. and no one thought -- no one was even paying attention to that race, and they woke up. it's washington state. the media doesn't cover these races out on the far pacific coast. all of a sudden, tom foley swept away in that gingrich '94 revolution that you were a part of. the reason i mention foley is washington state is one of the places. if you look around places where if you're paying close attention or live in those places and you're a political junkie, you might see this, and the rest of us are not paying attention as much. washington state is one of those places. patty murray, who's running the

democratic incumbent senator, running her sixth race. she got elected in 1992, you'll recall, as the mom in tennis shoes, right? and she has run five races, she's basically won by somewhere between -- other than 2010, she had a tight race. but '92, '98, 2004, and 2016, she wins by comfortable margins. eight points, all the way up to 18, 19 points, right? she's in a race right now where she's seen her lead go, according to from the polling from plus 12 to plus 1 over the course of the last month. just a steady tightening and she's underneath 50%, which is a dangerous place to be for an incumbent a week out. so is patty murray in danger? a lot of democrats think that she's in danger. will she pull it out? she's got a lot of goodwill there, has been there for a long time. but patty murray is somewhere in danger. on the other hand, chuck grassley in iowa. kind of under the radar, i keep hearing from democrats and

republicans who quietly are either overjoyed or concerned about the fact that chuck grassley might get beat in his race in iowa. those two races, i think, would shock a lot of people. longtime senators that people haven't paid much attention to. and then there's the utah race. where people know there's a three-way -- there's this race out there and mcmullen has become the de facto candidate for never-trump republicans and democrats, evan mcmullen now, right on the verge, potentially, of beating mike lee. is mike lee the favorite of that race now? he is, but it's not with -- if you look at all the numbers and what you're hearing out of utah, not inconceivable that mcmullen could pull that out. not inconceivable that mike lee could lose his seat. the last one i'll give you is gretchen whitmer, who ever since dobbs has been seen as a shoo-in in michigan and at times has lead by double digits. finally she finds herself in a very close race and under 50, also. causing al of concern among a lot of democrats. there's a reason why barack obama is in michigan over the

weekend, and it's because he and his people like a lot of democrats are suddenly concerned about gretchen whitmer and the secretary of state, jocelyn benison, and the attorney general, dana nessel, who are bound together on the anti-election denial front. those are some surprises looking out for. it's going to be a wild night and a wild week or who after that night, you'll see. and you'll see some surprises are going to come, maybe even some ones other than the ones i just mentioned. >> and i'll tell you in michigan, i've been hearing for the last week from democrats, concern, the same type of concern that they had in 2016. where you would ask, how's that race going? and people around hillary clinton said, i think we're going to be able to hole on, just glad the race is not another week. of course, they didn't hold on. donald trump won michigan. and you're hearing the same from the whitmer people right now, they don't know with the momentum going the way it is, that she holds on. >> a lot can still happen in six

days. >> a lot can happen in six days. >> john heilemann and sarah longwell, thank you both very much for your insight this morning. coming up, the breaking news overnight. north korea fires over 20 missiles with at least one directly aimed at south korea. we'll get the latest reporting from the region. plus, cnbc's andrew ross sorkin joins the table as the fed prepares another major interest rate hike. what that means for the economy and how it could impact tuesday's election when "morning joe" returns. tuesday's election when "morning joe" returns this week is your chance to try any subway footlong for free. like the subway series menu. just buy any footlong in the app, and get one free. free monsters, free bosses, any footlong for free! this guy loves a great offer. so let's see some hustle!

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32 past the hour. developments overnight, north korea fired over 20 missiles with one aimed directly at south korea. nbc's janis mackey frayer has the details. >> reporter: this morning, an historic escalation along the

korean peninsula. north korea firing at least 23 missiles overnight in quick succession. one aimed directly towards south korea, landing close to south korea's territorial waters for the first time since the country split. that triggered air raid sirens on an island. people had to take cover. the missiles going east and west, landing in waters around south korea and japan. then came the artillery. north korea firing more than 100 rounds into a buffer zone near the east coast. retaliating against the north korea, south korea fired three air-to-surface missiles and sent up fighter jets, saying its missiles also landed near the sea border. with tension edging ever hire, the u.s. secretary of state and the south korean government discussing possible responses. it's been a record year for north korea weapons testing, 28 so far. kim jong-un adamant to prove his program is thriving. thecoincidence. this week, the u.s. and south

korea holding annual military drills meant to simulate what to do against threats from the north. north korea had threatened the two countries would, quote, pay the most horrible price in history in protest of the drills. it's also a sensitive time, with south korea morning the people killed in a crowd crush last weekend. the relentless testing seen as a prelude to what is likely next, a seventh nuclear test by kim jong-un that could come any day. >> nbc's janis mackey frayer with that report. and in a few hours, members of the federal reserve will meet to discuss what would be the sixth interest rate hike of the year. let's bring in co-anchor of cnbc's squawk box, andrew ross sorkin, and insider columnist, lynette lopez, who focuses on u.s. politics and economics as well as international markets. and she's focused on china today, but first, andrew ross sorkin, when's the hike going to be? when's it going to happen.

>> we all agree, it's 75 basis points. but that's almost besides the point. what we're all looking for is what does j. powell actually say about what comes next, whether he plans to be vigilant, which means he's going to continue to raising rates, whether he's going to be data dependent, which is a euphemism for, maybe i'm going to let off the pedal a little bit. i think that's what people are right to understand. and of course, this is all coming before the election next week. what does that mean to the way the stock market is reacting. right now, the stock market is reacting, i think, somewhat optimistically, that somehow he's going to say, yes, we're data dependent. >> there's this magic on wall street. >> there's a magic on wall street where right before powell starts seeking, everybody on wall street starts to convince themselves that it's over. every hedge fund manager, like, everybody is like, nah, it's going to be good. powell comes over, bursts their bubble, the stock market slides. whether it's one day later or two days later. and we're all back to recession fears again. none of this means that that's

what's actually going to happen. the chatter is just chatter. just listen to powell. don't listen to anyone else. >> so let me ask you this, andrew. the ceos i've talked to, quietly, they're saying, off the record, they think the recession is coming and it's really bad. and -- >> so here's the conundrum. the conundrum is, in the actual -- for most people's businesses, it's actually been surprisingly resilient. you look, by the way, there's a fabulous piece in the times today about how most companies have oddly enough been able to past these charges and these additional costs on to consumers. that's actually what's leading to some of this inflation. it's not strictly that somehow wages are going up. the truth is, food prices are going up. everything is going up. you look at a pepsico, 20% profits. chipotle, 26% profits. that's why when you're hearing

president obama talk about a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies, there is a windfall happening in corporate america right now. >> yes, there is. >> and the question is, how -- if you are the federal reserve or if you are the administration or if you're a politician, what do you do about that? >> right. >> and i also think it's different for companies that really got their -- had sales pulled forward during the pandemic. they are seeing a massive decrease. they are the ones who might be telling you, ah! a recession is coming! because they're the ones who really profited during the pandemic, and are seeing their business cycle change. but that doesn't necessarily mean that our economic cycle will change, for us. >> but the tip of the iceberg, what you're talking about is, all of these ceos are looking and saying, my business is looking good, but i'm scared out of my mind about what comes next. the tip of the iceberg may be the companies that rely on advertising. and you saw it with meta. you saw it with google. you're seeing it across the board. advertising is the first thing that companies do when they get nervous. >> by the way, that's pulling back right now. >> that piece is pulling back.

the question is, whether that's a signal about even more to come. >> and not charging for verified users. >> well -- we have to have another segment for that. >> were you going to pay eight bucks or not? that's what i want to know. >> it's a "no" for me. >> is it no across the table here? >> will you pay to be verified? >> we were talking about this earlier. how is it, supposedly, you got elon musk, supposedly, a genius -- >> oh, he's a genius. >> how is it he made such a horrible deal buying twitter? >> you know, don't play yourself is really what it is. he played himself. don't -- don't believe your own bs. he said, i alone can fix it, hyped himself up, surrounded himself by people who said the right thing and didn't realize that market conditions were falling under his feet and deluded himself into thinking that this is a great deal and i can do it. >> does tesla get hurt? >> absolutely. twitter is not a money-making

company. somebody is going to have to pay the skeleton crew that remains. somebody will have to put money into that business. and that money is probably going to come from selling teslas or maybe tesla acquires twitter. >> andrew, can we just talk about it? i don't say this gleefully at all. i want elon musk to do what helon musk does best. he is, like i said, walter isaacson followed him around. there's a reason why, he's a genius, right? but he's gotten involved like just down in the mud. and he's doing it every day. twitter is such a horrid purchase on a good day. the fact that he had to overpay for it $44 billion. and we're seeing him tweet and sort of unwind in front of us every day, like yesterday. like, debates people on twitter about $8 for blue checks. tweeting at hillary clinton, trying to own the libs by

spreading a preposterous conspiracy theory. this is a guy -- is there nobody around him who can say, you're the thomas edison of our time. why don't you be thomas edison and stop trying to be a carnival barker. >> that is actually one of the great challenges. that there is nobody around him to say "no." and he doesn't like when people say "no." so if you are saying "no," he is pushing you -- >> but what does he get out of it? >> he may prove to be one of the great geniuses when it comes to industrial design, you know, he understands a factory floor better -- you know, better than anybody. but twitter is about the town square. it's about democracy. it's about free speech. it's about social issues that -- and i don't know if he's an expert at those things. >> he's spending time responding to@forwardknocker2213 to see if that guy is shadow banned. like these are the things -- you see it -- you can see it. and it's -- this guy is wasting

his time and everyone else's time. and that's what's really sad about it. >> really quickly, lynette, you've written this piece about china, which i think is the most underreported story over the past couple of years is how xi keeps committing one act of self-sabotage after another. just destroyed. taking apart the chinese economy, the chinese miracle piece by piece by piece. and you say there are consequences. >> you say, he is blowing up the economy. and that's not great news for the rest of the world. >> the less china can project soft power using its economy, whether it's by making deals in other countries or, you know, whatever it is, like talking to u.s. executives because their consumer demand is attractive to other companies, the more they will rely on hard power. building up the people's liberation army, using their spies in other countries. we're already hearing about these secret jails that they

have all over europe where they're taking chinese dissidents. it's a really scary thing. if the chinese economy isn't booming and the chinese miracle isn't happening, people outside of china aren't going to want to go in. and part of that is maybe what xi wants. maybe he wants a closed society like that. but what it does bring out is more violence, i think, in the beijing government and more opportunity instead of cooperation. there will be coercion. >> and andrew, you have xi again, whether you're talking about what he's doing with the uighurs, talking about business. what he's done with hong kong and jack ma and the top entrepreneurs. it's almost like war has been declared against the top entrepreneurs. we heard after the beijing olympics in 2008, the future is beijing. you should see their airports. you should see their bullet trains. then i started hearing from executives. oh, my god, i can't send my people over there.

it's a miserable place to live. the pollution is horrible. quality of life is horrible. my best people hate it over there. it seemed, again, it's one self-inflicted wound after another to their economy. >> look, i think there's a good argument to be made, and we've seen some numbers on this, for a long time we talked about the american empire ending because we thought the chinese empire was going to take us over. that's actually less clear today, oddly enough. >> i'm not in that camp. >> you're not in that camp? >> i've never been in that camp. because i think that the muscle memory of the chinese government, when you get someone like xi jinping in charge, is to take control of everything. and what i'm hearing also from executives right now, is that the lockdowns that are taking over china right now, the covid-19, they're not necessary. they're mostly for control, for surveillance. and you're seeing that information that used to be free-flowing from the country, it's gone. xi is taking over all aspects of life and calling them all

security measures. this is a society that is closing. >> and mike, andrew is too young to remember this, but do you remember all the books we had to read in 1988 and 1999 -- >> japan. >> i do remember, absolutely. >> you were in third grade. >> the japanese -- >> they bought 30 rock, they bought pebble beach. but i'm telling you, there -- it's all we heard for two, three, four years, that they were going to take the united states over just as much as we've been hearing about china, and then they have, of course, a bad decade, then two bad decades. and again, i just -- i've been skeptical from the start. >> and it comes from real estate, which is what we're seeing is taking down the chinese economy right now. except when japan had a real estate issue, a bubble, everybody was much richer.

now we have a chinese economy where individuals are much poorer on average, and they have a realize bubble that they cannot control, they can't stop building, or lots of people lose their jobs. >> except -- >> and they can't fill the apartments. >> there's one huge difference between japan in the late '80s and china today. japan then and now has an open society. china has a closed society with an increasingly elderly population. and an increasingly young population. both ends of the democratic -- demographic chart in china are in difficulty. the young want to be free, the old want something to eat before they die. >> and i know it will shock people, but it bears reminding people again, when they keep talking about america's collapsing. i've heard it my whole life. please, just shut up. you've been wrong for 50 years. >> joe, be nice. >> i'm saying, i've heard it

from my seventh grade teachers, from my college professors. i heard it in law school. i've heard it time and again. it's not going to happen. i go back after the big blow-up in 2008, and you heard the oracle of omaha saying, bet against the united states, you'll lose every time. and here you've got free societies versus closed societies. you have crazy hippies from berkeley going into their dad's garage with $5,000 and creating microsoft in 1977, '78 versus the closed societies there. and we see this in russia as well. we let our men and women in the field make decisions out there. we're a bottom-up military. we know what we're doing. they're topdown. freedom always wins, andrew. >> freedom always wins, american exceptionalism is something, though, that you need to earn. >> what does that mean? >> i don't think it's preordained that it's going to work. >> i'm not waving the american

flag. >> and i want it to work, obviously. >> i'm just saying, comparing us to china or comparing us to russia as far as the decisions that people make or what motivates people to get up in the morning and work hard, it's not a close call. if you're an entrepreneur, and you see what happens to the best of the best entrepreneurs in china, you're saying -- >> you could be in a black jail. you could be disappeared. it's not a question of not making money, it's a question of knowing the wrong people and ending up in a very, very scary place. so, yeah, i wouldn't bet against the u.s. >> by the way, to bring it back to our twitter blue check comment and tesla and everything else. the fact that elon musk has such a huge business in china, to me, and you start thinking about what that up to square is supposed to look like.

>> the chinese government owns the land that that factory is on. and he cannot say anything or do anything or they can take it back. that's the deal. >> that's something to watch as well. >> cnbc's andrew ross sorkin and insiders lynette lopez, thank you both very much for being on this morning. >> anytime. we have two, by the way, special "morning joe" events to tell you about. first, this morning -- >> four hours is not enough. >> 9:00 eastern on msnbc, a special prime-time hour of "morning joe," as we look at the critical races and key issues on the ballot ahead of this tuesday's vote. and then, one week from today, themonger after the election. a special edition of "morning joe" in front of a live studio audience. we'll break down all the results with an all-star panel. and special guests. we'll discuss what it all means for the country moving forward. for more on how to secure your spot in the audience, scan the qr code that's on your screen. we also have the information on

our website, joe.msnbc.com. and as we go to break, some news to us just now. six days ahead of election day. president joe biden will deliver remarks this evening on preserving and protecting our democracy. according to the dnc, quote, the president will address the threat of election deniers and those who seek to undermine faith in voting and democracy. and the stakes for our democracy in next week's election. it's going to happen at 7:00 p.m. and msnbc is going to cover it live. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. my asthma felt anything but normal. a blood test helped show my asthma is driven by eosinophils, which nucala helps reduce. nucala is a once-monthly add-on injection for severe eosinophilic asthma. nucala is not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur.

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two goners first inning. right center field. lightning strikes, 2-0 phils. >> crushed. that is bryce harper, the first of five philadelphia home runs last night tieing a world series record. the place was up for grabs.

the phillies defeated the astros 7-0 and take a 2-1 lead. game four is tonight there back in philly. joining us now, terrance moore, the author of the book "the real hank aaron, a look at the life and legacy." terrance, great to see you. we'll talk about the world series in a minute but all of us onset are fascinated by your book because you're a hero to a lot of us, hank aaron. boy, you have a great personal story of being a fan as a kid and developing a relationship with hank aaron to the point you were a pallbearer. tell us about that. >> being a spiritual person, i don't think there is any such thing as coincidence. i went from being a 12-year-old kid in 1968, diehard hank aaron fan and got this poster, which i still have and as you say, been an honorary pallbearer. the book is about that and everything in between.

hank taught semitree between himself and me being a black sports writer and most prominently the first african american of sports history and atlanta constitution, a lot of racial strife inside and outside the paper for me and hank held me through that entire period. >> terrance, i grew up in the suburbs of atlanta on the outskirts of atlanta and a braves' fan. hank was my all-time sports hero. i always tell this story about hank, the humanity of him. i'd write letters to my favorite baseball players and they would stamp a signature and send it back. hank aaron in the spring of '74, i said dear mr. aaron, i'm your biggest fan. he had the weight of the world coming down on him afraid he would be shot by a white supremacist chasing babe ruth's

record. he alone sent me back this colored picture, dear e jorks -- joey, thank you so much. all my best, hank aaron. i'm telling you, 55 years later it touches me i had no idea what he was going through. talk about what he was going through chasing babe ruth leading up to april 8th, 1974. >> i'm going to tell you a couple things about that. i was closer to hank aaron than any reporter for 40 years. any time i talked to hank, which was considerable, he always told me something i didn't know before, something i never said before. the last interview he did in his life was with me in the fall of 2020 and he talked about that chase for the babe ruth series and nobody really understood how much that pained him through and it's all detailed in the book. he told me that the thing he always resented was watching a pete rose or kyle or mark

mcgwire have the time of their lives and he couldn't enjoy his moment so that was always something that was concerning to him. the other thing about hank that always bothered him and this plays into right now we've got no african americans on either team of the world series as far as players are concerned, first time since 1950, hank always believed that major league baseball was purposely phasing out african americans back to 1982 when he first met to his death, you know and back in the '82 i worked for the san francisco examiner and did this detailed study on african americans in baseball because the mid 1970s, the african american population of baseball was 25%, dropped down to 19% in 1982 so i'm calling these people to find out what this is about including hank aaron. hank aaron, frank robinson, joe morgan prominent players believe major league baseball had a system to force out african americans and said by the turn of the 21st century, it would

drop down below 10% where it is right now. >> terrance, you know, i can remember around the not about three or four years before hank's passing, i happened to get on an airplane and he was seated there and we sat together and he talked all the way about his concern about race in baseball and race in the sports and i can identify with that and i remember i was 19 when he broke the record of babe ruth and i talked to him, i told him, i said man, you don't know how excited we were when you broke that record and i said i remember my mother was most excited when one time jesse jackson brought us when i was a young youth leader under him and he wanted to talk about how jackie robinson treated me. he was such a fan and felt he was the next guy after jackie robinson. he wanted more details on jackie

robinson than he would ever talk to me about him and i was sitting there trying to glean more about him and it occurred to me, that's the kind of guy he was. >> yeah, you know, you bring up this jackie robinson thing and i love you did that. this is the 75th anniversary of jackie robinson breaking a color barrier and that was hank's idol and people don't give jackie enough respect what he did away from baseball as much as breaking the color barrier and i bring that up because jackie robinson was a civil rights leader as you know reverend al and others on the panel. in 1972, october of 1972 after jackie robinson died, hank aaron went to willy mays and rnie banks and said now that he died it's up to cause to carry on the civil rights and he told me they weren't going to do it because they didn't want to harm their image and this tells you the person hank was. hank said you know what? i'll do it myself. i want to tell you something, i

was a hank aaron whisperer. when he wanted to get something out there, it would come through me and became an executive of the braves, he was very outspoken about baseball and racism and how they treated black players and people in general. when i would get the stuff out, i would get blasted and he would get blasted. so in many ways, he was lebron james before lebron james and colin kaepernick before colin kaepernick. >> wow. >> i'll tell you one thing, joe, hank aaron in terms of the mobility of sports and a human being unmatched. >> yeah. >> unmatched, jonathan. >> beyond -- >> hall of famer and american hero. civil rights icon and extraordinary ballplayer. >> as rev said, the humility, as well. he carried it, you know, again -- he carried it so extraordinarily well. >> the book is "the real hank aaron, an intimate look at the