into their home. the complaint says a private security guard working near pelosi home on the night of the attack saw a man dressed in black carrying a large bag. after hearing banging, that security guard never called police. nbc news has confirmed capitol police in washington, d.c., had the ability to monitor pelosi's san francisco home 24 hours a day, but during the attack, no one was watching the security camera feed because the speaker of the house wasn't home. still, the violent home invasion raising new questions about security for elected officials and their loved ones. >> nbc's miguel almaguer with that report. it is the top of the hour. white house chief of staff ron klain join us in just a moment on the heels of president biden's speech last night. and with just five days left until the midterms, candidates

pitch their closing messages to voters. we'll have a slew of new polling numbers to see what, if anything, is getting through. also ahead, this week's jobless claims are in. what the new numbers on of the of another interest rate hike tell us about the state of our economy. professor eddie glaude jr. and jonathan lemire are with us. and joining us, nbc news national political reporter marc caputo and republican strategist and nbc news political analyst susan del percio. it's good to have you with us this hor hour. we have new polling out this morning. a hotly contested senate race in pennsylvania, the latest emerson college "the hill" survey finds mehmet oz with a two-point lead over john fetterman, within the poll's 3% margin of error. 4% remain undecided. >> let's keep it in

pennsylvania. another new poll shows last week's debate between fetterman and oz appears to have had very little impact in minds of voters. 48% of voters telling monmouth university they will definitely or probably vote for fetterman and 44% for oz. those are almost unchanged from a poll taken before last week's debate where fetterman struggled to speak at times following a stroke he suffered earlier in the year. another new survey from fox news shows fetterman leading 45% to 42% in this poll, within the three percentage points of margin of error. and the governor's race, josh shapiro leading by 16 points over the republican. >> not tight. >> it's the first time i've seen josh shapiro in a lengthy interview. he is good. >> yeah.

>> does two things at once you were talking about, yes, he's concerned about the conspiracy theories and democracy. he also talks about crime. he also talks about inflation. willie, he's good. >> he's really good. it gets to this question that democrats have been beating themselves up over or should we auk about democracy or the economy. do both. do both at once. >> shook up. just walked in and sat down. that's awkward. >> he fell off the turnip truck, come straight out of the circus. >> i'll tell you what else that shapiro thing brings up, which you talked about earlier in the show, and a lot of discussion, he'll run for president one day and has his eyes on that prize. the rise in anti-semitism is one of those things that, you know, is always in the background of this thing. this guy who was the first -- someone who's taken quite seriously as someone who could

be a possible presidential candidate. whether that's sooner or later. anti-semitism resurging all over the country, and he's getting an early test-drive against mastriano. interesting, mastriano followers doing that -- raising that right hand. he's done ads on it. >> shapiro, there's been this false choice that we're told democrats and voters have to make. this has to be about saving democracy. it can't be about inflation. that would insult me. shapiro, a great political athlete, at least appears to be here, he does both at the same time. democrats need to learn to do that. >> we talked about it yesterday on the show. i just saw barack obama in

nevada. putting on a master class. how you do that. i'm better than -- he's got all the stuff going because he's that combination of folksy, not professorial, but he talks like a human being, funny, does it with a smile. but the way he integrates those issues, defense of democracy, the economy, crime, the whole thing, that's what democrats haven't been great at so far. >> let's watch that right now. here's president obama in arizona. >> here in arizona, there's no question that -- that katie hobbs' opponent, she's good in front of the camera because she's been doing it for a long time. right? some people don't know this, but apparently kari lake actually interviewed me back in 2016 when i was president. she was -- she was a local news anchor. she was doing her job. at the time, i don't remember thinking that she was the kind of person who would push

debunked covid remedies or promise to issue a declaration of invasion at our border or claim without any evidence that the 2020 election was stolen. i guess that stuff came later because she found it convenient because she thought, well, here's an opportunity to get attention -- listen, if we hadn't just elected somebody who is main qualification was being on tv, you could see maybe giving it a shot. what's the worst that could happen? well, now we know! it didn't just work out just because somebody's been on tv. if you were trying to create in a lab a wacky republican politician, it'd look a lot like this guy. mr. masters.

campaign backed by a tech billionaire who's questioned the value of democracy, check. wants to give tax cuts to big corporations that are jacking up prices on consumers. check. thinks it's a good idea to privatize social security and, quote, cut the knot on the benefits that more than a million seniors here in arizona depend on. check, check, check. i got a little fired up about this the other day in wisconsin, but it's true here in arizona too. folks in arizona have social security not because somebody's giving it to them as a payoff, as a gift. they earned it. they worked for it. >> so there's the message, joe. >> wow. >> whooo! >> in one short -- >> yeah. >> check. >> issues that affect your life, check, check, check, but the bigger question surrounding

democracy. not everybody is president obama, has his fame and platform, but that's the message if you're a democrat. >> the talent, the skill of it. it's so funny when he used donald trump's own words against him -- what do we have to lose? now we know! oh, my god. >> we do know. >> and about herschel walker. yeah, he won the hafrt but if you're in the airport and walking past him, you're not going to go herschel walker. >> no. you want me playing at the tailback -- you don't want me playing tailback at the university of virginia. you don't want him as governor. susan, you've got some insights into where races in the state of arizona are. what are you finding? >> well, we're going to be releasing the full findings at our global communications summit tomorrow. but what we're seeing and i guess give you a little sneak peek to is in arizona there is

one thing that really came up a lot in the polling, and it's something that you've been discussing all morning, and that is almost three-quarters of arizonans we surveyed believe that debating is an important thing for a gubernatorial candidate to do. so that is clearly taking a hit on katie hobbs. we're also seeing that, you know, those all-valued independents are breaking in different ways. men are breaking towards masters, whereas independent women are breaking towards kelly. and then, you know, at the end of the -- the top line is it's going to be a nail-biter. i don't see us noting the results on election night. but, you know, a phenomenon i guess that can only happen with these crazy trump candidates is that you have lake actually pulling up masters in his numbers, and you have kelly helping hobbs pull up her

numbers. so it's an interesting dynamic when you're looking at both races and then looking at the general numbers overall. but the big decider will probably be hispanic voters. they make up 20%. and while they lean democrat, economy is the number-one issue for them. >> wow. and how's new hampshire looking? >> new hampshire is looking also very close, although it seems like senator hasan has been able to kind of stay at that 50% number, around there, whereas bullock has been plateauing on his previous numbers. so it's still close. let's not forget, the last time there was a senate race, it was decided by 0.2%. so we expect it to be close. i think another thing that is helping the republican there is that governor sununu's numbers are through the roof. so i think that will be pulling

some of those -- perhaps those biden voters in 2020 kind of back into the republican column because they see sununu and may be willing to take a chance on the republican. >> then there's the issue of split ticketing. mark, you have new reporting on a closing strategy some candidates are oling out in the final days of their campaigns, appealing to voters who are considering contenders from different parties for office. what more can you tell us about ticket splitters? >> well, they're a phenomenon. and you've got both a ticket splitter phenomenon and kind of a no-show phenomenon, and you're really seeing it in the two reb races in arizona -- the senate candidates i should say -- arizona and georgia. blake masters, if you look at the polling for republicans, fabrizio, a republican pollster, his survey showed blake masters was doing worse among

republicans than kelly does doing among democrats in the senate race. republicans are targeting a universe of about 110,000 households where they've identified a 2018 republican voter and another voter in the house who didn't have the ballot and they're trying to say hey, vote for masters. kind of the upward pressure of dragging masters up. in the georgia senate race, there's also a universe of voters that the super pac called 34 and 22 was identified, about 300,000 soft republicans, people who might stay home, who might vote for the libertarian candidate, might even switch and split tickets with warnock, the democratic senator in the race. what they're doing is reaching out to them by digital, by mail, by phone call and text to try to get them to come back into the republican fold, not split the ticket and to show up. >> it's fascinating, jonathan, ticket splitters that -- you

look at some of these candidates that are just, again, i'm trying to find the words, they're just wacky. and some people are voting on one side and then flipping over to the other side, but it shows for a lot of voters it's not about ideology, it's about who they like and who they think will represent them, who will fight for them. >> in an era of extreme partisanship, ticket splitters are backed this time in part because of candidate quality as you said. we're seeing it in a couple different states in particular. georgia, where governor kemp is well ahead of stacey abrams there, but the senate race is tight. most experts on both sides believe it will go to a runoff in december. pennsylvania another. we've been talking about attorney general shapiro, helping mastriano, to the point that mehmet oz, the republican, is targeting ads to try to get independents who are leaning

shapiro, he believes that might be the key. but he's trying to do so carefully not to alienate mastriano, who has a platform himself, but also donald trump, who comes to town this weekend for one of his rallies. >> john, you do this all the time, do you have confidence that the polls are going to be more accurate this year than say in 2020 or in 2016? it seems that populist, whether it's in the united states or across western europe, sometimes the populist vote is underreported in these polls. >> yeah. i think that the polling industry is chastened by what's happened to it in the last few cycles. they missed 2020 and 2016 in one way, which was mostly undercounting -- understating the strength of republicans, and they missed to some extent the wave in 2008 where they didn't see that coming. it's like the predictive force of the polls, it's all we have, right, so we're trying to --

people get mad at political analysts for relying too much on polls and the answer to that is what would you prefer, anecdotal evidence, like the taxicab driver we talked to in scranton? >> right. >> we want to be empirical and look at the numbers and do a mix of things. we meet voters, read poll, try to present a clear picture. but i don't think anybody who covers to polls these races, the people who tried to fix it, they're embarrassed by 2016 and 2020, they want to get it right, but the complexity of the country and how you reach people now -- for a long time it was well the random digit dial, call you on the home land line of scrimmage. then cell phones. then the internet. now it's, like, you know, the best polls now have some mix of you have to use every possible way to get every possible voter because people are so hard to reach because of the way they communicate. and no one feels like they get -- they understand exactly how to weight the samples or what the right method is to get

a picture of the electorate. pollsters feel like us, we're doing our best but we're not 1,000% confident we fixed everything. they felt confident in 2020 but got smacked in the face. so they're more humble about it. it's not the holy word. >> don't most of the mistakes break into the republicans' favor? republican votes, populists, are always underrespected in the polls. >> well, they -- they did in 2016 and 2020. they definitely understated the trump vote and the turnout in rural america, broadly speaking. but again, in 2018, you did not see polls that were accurately predicting the extent of the democratic turnout in that midterm election. what the polls have been bad at doing in this era is figuring out what the electorate is going to look like, as much as anything else. it's been about not having a

clear snapshot of who's going to vote. that goes back to who are you not talking to, who are you not reaching? who are you not finding in the normal methods of reaching out to surveys? there are other problems. the assumption that in presidential years, on the basis of what happened to obama in 2012, you see these big democratic turnouts of nonwhite voters. those turned out to be true, but they missed a lot of the white rural voter who is turned out for trump in 2016 and massive numbers in 2020. but the same happened in 2018 where people assumed it's a midterm year, its will be a whiter, older, less educated electorate and democrats rallied incredibly. getting a clear picture of the electorate in any given cycle is one of the hardest things pollsters are trying to konld contend with. >> when i was running, i didn't trust polls but if i picked up ten points over a couple months

or if i had lost three or four points over couple months, i always looked at the lines. what's so confounding about the polls in the last couple week, most of these races, overwhelming number, are tightening up, on both sides. >> absolutely. and what's interesting is that the assumptions behind polling i think have been called into question, because the country is not only so polarized but the demographics have changed so dramatically. who's the likely voter they're looking for? to. >> that's the problem. >> think about poll data and young millennials and gen-z'ers and how they're changing. we know the last election cycle gen-xers, millennials outnumbered baby boomers for the first i time. how are polls tracking their -- >> that's what john is always asking, maybe a pretty good night for democrats. >> absolutely. i think it's the background

assumptions in polling data that throws everything into question. this reminds me of a conversation i had with a taxi driver in scranton. >> but the place you really feel it is people you talk to. in the fall, people talking about gas prices again. >> marc caputo, let's talk about florida. senator rubio has a lead there. we talked about demings. and governor desantis running for re-election. what do those races look like five days out? >> tough for democrats. where i am right now, miami-dade county is a big reason for that. usually when you look at florida election, you start to tally up ballot returns by party in early in-person votes and absentee votes. miami-dade is a big blue democratic county.

democrats outnumber registered republicans here. yet yesterday republicans at certain points exceeded the number of ballots cast by them when compared to democrats. if that happens, and if the ballots reflect the votes, that is, if the republican voters vote republican and the democratic voters vote democrat and if the polls are right regarding independents, and if -- these are a bunch of ifs -- ron desantis and marco rubio win miami-dade county, then it's looking like a wipeout for democrats in the state. this is a county that democrats need to win big, and if they don't, they lose and they can lose big. now, what's the definition of big? good question. i'll give you some comparisons. in 2016, hillary clinton won miami-dade county by 29 percentage points. she lost the -- >> and we just lost the feed. i want to follow up with what he was saying because it is fascinating.

miami-dade, i was asking a republican data guy who is just the best in the state of florida, he tells me what's going to happen weeks ahead of time and he's always -- seems to be right. he said in miami-dade, the republicans were even shocked. there were three things. one of them very surprising, what they saw in the numbers. one was covid. there are people in miami-dade who thought the state was shut down too long or people were shut down too long and the schools were shut down and they agreed with desantis on covid and the shutdowns. that was one of them. another issue had to do with defunding the police. a lot of hispanics they found in miami-dade were offended by it in part because they had family members or friends or people in the community that either worked for the police department, the fire department. and he also said, the only

person i've heard say this, but the nfl kept coming up. >> hmm. >> and a lot of the hispanic polling, you know, the kneeling durr the national anthem, things like that, which said that shocked them. but there was this strange confluence with these things, under the radar, that very few people in the national scale would have ever imagined would have pushed hispanics away from republicans, but it did. >> and trump's democrats socialism played huge, venezuelans and stuff in the area. this trend has accelerated. latinos at least in florida breaking from the gop, which has some belief that florida may not be such a swing state in 2024. susan, new york state, we have a surprisingly close governor's race here. the incumbent, kathy hochul, has called in the heavy hitters for

reinforcement. president biden was here last week. the white house is considering adding another stop in the coming days. the vice president has been here. hochul with appear with the secretary of state clinton. polls show it's close. where is this going? >> i think at the end of the day hochul will pull it out, but let's be clear, this should be a 20-point race for hochul. the fact that lee zeldin is doing so well is two things, one his messaging on crime. and more importantly, he's taking it to new york city, where if he was to pull it off, around 35% of the vote, he's staying in new york city and talking to voters about crime, specifically subway crime. you can't tell people that it's safer based on stats when they're afraid to go on those subway platforms. even as a new yorker myself, i have concerns about being on subway platforms. but it's crime and it is the economy. what's interesting also is when

you look at the suburbs like long island, it's quite possible that republicans sweep 4 out of the 4 congressional seats on long island which are currently divided 2 and 2. and then is a big reason why kathy hochul -- and i think that's part of the national trends in the suburbs -- is doing so poorly, because she is not resonating with voters. she's not giving them a reason to go out there. i shouldn't say she's not running for re-election, she's running for election, and she has yet to connect and make people feel comfortable with her. >> yeah. john, really quickly, this reminds me, you look at new york state, a lot closer than it should be. you talk to democratic operatives, they give you the numbers behind the scene. new york, out on long island, man, it's, like, democrats are, like, whoa, this might hurt us across the state, this might hurt us in the house races. they think it's going to.

you also go out to l.a. some people are waking up this morning -- good morning, l.a. -- a lot of people waking up in los angeles, and man, i'm hearing the same thing. under the radar, very under the radar, but you've got so many lifelong democrats. i was out in l.a., i heard one after another after another, what do you think about the race? what do you think? almost like they didn't want to admit these lifelong democrats were voting for the former republican. >> yeah. >> they just kept talking about crime, crime. >> yes. >> everybody, every democrat, whether they're in l.a., whether they're in new york, whether they're in washington, d.c., they all have a story about somebody getting shot in their building, somebody getting shot on a, you know -- getting shot wherever. it's permeating, again, not, like, right-wing republican household. democrats are talking about it. everywhere. >> yeah. look, i mean, my hometown and

it's been have from the very beginning, ever since covid, the discussions around homelessness and crime in los angeles have been the most common thing you hear whenever i go back, which is not that infrequent. the talk has been constant. karen bass and democrats kind of, you know -- they've had a very kind of contritional social services way, the homeless problem we have to deal with, but not getting at what has driven a lot of fear for a lot of people, addressing it in an emotional way. kathy hochul is the other problem of being -- i mean, she does have the disadvantage of being someone who, was when she became in, if you asked the average new yorker, not a slam on her, she hasn't been office very long, and you ask people, what do you identify with her, most people draw a blank. >> but eric adams, the first thing i knew about it was eric

adams was having a fight with her on no cash bail. >> right. >> and eric adams was, like, come on, help me out in new york city. and she was -- she stayed steadfastly, at least the beginning, for no cash bail. so that's first time new yorkers heard about her. >> now fight between albany and the city, between the democratic party, not especially on an issue like this, cutting through people, and lee zeldin, who is reviled by democrats for a million reasons but a known quantity, somebody who has been very -- i don't mean to praise him, but he had a play in new york city. people forget that new york had a republican governor not that long ago and although george pataki -- not much in common, there are similar dna to the two of them. as you've seen these polls get tighter and tighter, there's definitely a lot of panic on

democrats about what happens with hochul. >> eddie, one thing that is maddening, i think, to democratic candidates -- like new york city, they'll say if you look at the date, less people are being pushed in front of subway cars now than last year. >> oh, my god. >> they will. i've heard this argument. where those incidents have gone down year over year. and yet if you're watching, you know -- i saw wabc, a guy just running across pushing an elderly gentleman in front of -- down into the train track. and it's sort of like you need to push back on what people are seeing and saying we're going to make the subways safer, but people getting pushed in front of the subway, lower this year than last year. i don't know that that's a strong closing argument that you want to make.

>> well, i don't think it's a strong closing argument as well, but i'm sitting here and i'm -- something in my gut doesn't feel right. >> wait, what -- >> what i mean by that is oftentimes democrats respond to the debate around crime within the framework of the traditional debates around crime. so it's all about law and order and the ways in which that discourse has played itself out, that has produced all sorts of harms, not only to particular communities but to our democracy, i believe. and instead of trying to shoot the debate, yes, communities need to be safe and feel safe to echo shapiro's language. but how do we make that happen? how do we not engage in repeating the same mistakes that we repeat that we made in the '80s and '90s? >> how do we do it in a mor holistic way? i think, you know, conservatives

say we have to take care of primary now. progressives say we have to take care of the underlying symptom, and what you're talking about is a holistic approach. we have to do both things at the same time. >> right. when we have this conversation we have to be mindful of what we're triggering. we talked about this. what we trigger when we invoke crime as the issue. and we see republicans across the country, whether it's in the aging race in minnesota with keith ellison, ron johnson doing with barnes, complicated. what we see -- i'm receiving flyers in my mailbox because of my neighborhood. >> right. >> that are filled with images -- this is steve miller's folks -- filled with images of black folk and crime. we know what's being appealed to. and as we talk about crime in that way in this moment, and we know what's driving, at least in part, the stuff that is calling our democracy into question, we

have to be careful in how we do this. >> right. >> so it just gets me in my gut as we think about this. >> we have to be careful how we do it. we also have to remember the poll, again, we've been showing, and the poll that it's not a republican right-wing talking point to talk about crime exclusively that black americans, black democrats overwhelmingly see crime as a top issue. . what did shapiro say? >> be safe, feel safe. >> be safe, feel safe. >> okay. nbc news political analyst susan del percio, thanks for being on this morning. we'll continue this conversation. coming up, white house chief of staff ron klain will be here as the administration makes its closing argument before the midterms. plus, the fed announces an interest rate hike as weekly jobless claims remain low. cnbc's steve liesman will join

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i'm not the only one who sees it. recent polls show the majority of americans believe our democracy is at risk, that our democracy is under threat. they, too, see that democracy is on the ballot this year. >> president biden speaking at union station, washington, a few

blocks from the united states capitol last night. white house chief of staff ron klain joins us. thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> tell us about that decision to make that speech about democracy, what's on the line five days from now in your estimation, and when you chose to do it, the timing. >> the president's been talking about the threat to our democracy since he launched his campaign in 2019 and again on january 6th and again in september in philadelphia, independence hall. i think the president decided a few days ago it was important to issue one final warning on this issue, to make very clear to leave no doubt that we have people out there still peddling the big lie, people now raising the issue of election denial in this election, and of course the horrible incident involving speaker pelosi and her family, you know, showing the rising threat of political violence. and so i think all those things came together and led the president to make the strong remarks he made last night. >> ron, did the president reach out to mitch mcconnell or kevin

mccarthy or any republican leader suggesting they get together and have a united front against this political violence? >> he hasn't spoke on the them recently. i think the president's remarks last night, they were very strong, and bipartisan, made it clear that the majority of republicans, like the overwhelming majority of democrats, oppose political violence but targeting and talking about the maga republican officials who were stirring this, the people who were out there, you know, repeating these qanon violent me memes and things like that. that's what he was talking about last night. >> ron, it's jonathan lemire. i want to switch to the economy. we heard from chairman powell, the federal reserve, raising interest rates again suggesting this might not be the last time that happens. certainly a lot of economists believe this could be a sign that the nation will head to a recession. now, let's be clear, it's not a done deal, but you guys have to

prepare for things, eventualities. can you walk us through what the white house is doing to prepare americans, this economy, for a possible recession down the road? >> first of all, i want to be clear, we don't have monetary policy at the white house and i don't want to comment on what chairman powell said. we are not in a recession. let's be clear. we had today, this morning, come out the fact that unemployment claims remain at a historical low. we're at a 50-year low on unemployment overall and an all-time low on hispanic unemployment. we've created more jobs in two years than any administration in history. and we saw the stock market just finish its biggest month in 40 years. and even with a little fallback on the market yesterday, it closed higher than any day, any one day of donald trump's four-year presidency. so the economy is growing, it is strong, it is creating jobs. our mission at the white house is to continue that kind of economic growth, continue the

job creation, continue to move the economy forward, and to tackle the biggest problem we have in the economy right now, frankly, which is inflation, and bringing down prices of everyday things that really hit people hard. that's the number-one problem right now is inflation, and that's the problem we're focused on. >> so, ron, all these issues can't be addressed unless our democracy is intact. i wonder if the president will continue to explain the threat to democracy. what do i mean by that? i think candidates can be effective explaining what happened with roe, the consequences for women, for their health care, for their lives because of access to abortion being denied in more states now. what does the country -- can the president and will he explain what this country starts to look like if ultra maga candidates and election deniers are voted into office? >> yeah. i think, mika, we've had this discussion in the news media about should we talk about

democracy, about the economy, should we talk about abortion. i think what you've seen is the president on the stump talking about all these things and talking about also social security and medicare. i think it's important to explain to the american people -- again, i'm covered by the hatch act, i can't engage in election advocacy here -- but it's important to explain before the country are two very different futures, two very different directions, and the president's making it very clear what his direction is and also making it very clear what the other direction is. we have more news on that today, by the way, you know, front page of "the new york times," you know, shows that the republicans are saying that if they get control of the congress, they intend to slash social security, they intend to slash medicare. we need to explain that as well. >> white house chief of staff ron klain, thank you very much for being on the show this morning. turning now to the economy, let's bring in cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. so, another rate hike and maybe another to come?

steve? >> yeah, at least one and maybe more. powell and the fed hiked rates by 75 basis points, three-quarters of a percentage point. we haven't seen these kind of hikes since pall volker and the double-digit inflation we had back then. i don't think it's over. maybe another half a point in december, going automatic the way up right now, sort of kissing 4%, may be closer to 5% by the summer of next year. >> steve, there was a hope that there would be a smooth landing, but it sounds like the fed chairman is giving up on that fact. and i'm curious what your thoughts are. i'm fascinated by this because, you know, people like ratner and myself on this show have been warning about runaway spending for 15 years now and that at some point it would catch up to

us. do you think even with interest rates going up that inflation is going to remain stubbornly high? because we now have a national debt over $30 trillion. >> i think inflation is going to come down from the current levels. whether or not it gets down to the fed's 2% target is another question. you raise an interesting point, which is what is the responsibility of the fiscal side on this? you open any macroeconomic textbook 101 and the fiscal side plays a role in it if you do a high-deficit spending. it was okay in a world where we had lower inflation, didn't is have an inflation problem, but the fiscal side white house and congress could be playing a role in helping bring down inflation. they've done something, i guess, down the road when it comes to that inflation reduction act, but none of that is now and immediate. if they were to play a stronger role right now, you'd get more impact on inflation.

on the soft lantding idea, the runway was big and now it's getting smaller and smaller. powell hasn't ruled it out yet, but it's going to be a tough landing right now to make it soft. >> steve, when you're talking at home and your friends say, steve, really, what's going on, how bad is it going to be, what do you tell them? how bad is it going to be? what do you think? what's next year going to look like? are we going to have a really bad recession? >> you know, joe, i kind of -- to the extent that i still have friends and they talk to me about the economy -- >> yeah. >> he's jealous. >> -- i sort of remain a little bit optimistic here. i think there's some stuff going on that is not classic when it comes to what's happening with the economy. we still have this enormous demand for labor right now. we still have this historic unemployment rate. so i would think that a really good outcome would be is if we only raised the unemployment rate by a percentage point from

3.5% to 4.5%, i think we could still get away with a very mild slowdown or a very mild recession. by now of course you've gone on to look for additional reserves in the party we're at right now because i've bored you, but i do think we can get out of this, you know, and this discussion versus the pigs in a blanket is -- >> can i have two more of those? >> got to go. nice to see you. >> steve, i actually agree with you. let me just say if we can keep unemployment rates to 4.5%, let's say, that's historically low, that would be somewhat smoother landing than a lot of people fear now. cnbc's steve liesman -- >> we have to go over here. >> steve, please come back. >> get a drink, get her a drink. >> he needs to come with me. steve liesman, thank you. >> i want steve back. i love steve. i love steve.

>> optimistic. >> a tad bit. >> trying to get him to say is what some of us keep hearing from our friends in the economics world, men, next year's going to be the apocalypse, the worst recession ever. and on the other side, there are people like steve who make an argument that, yeah, it's not going to be great, but the employment situation is so good that it's not to what you normally have on the brink of a recession. >> and this economy has been stubbornly resilient. >> and weird pop. >> thanks for showing up at the party uninvited. tomorrow on "morning joe," two senate kanld datss from key battleground states, tim ryan of ohio and val demings of florida will be our guests on "morning joe" tomorrow. also the, the washington's bob woodward brings us more of his revealing interviews with

former president trump. and up next, the lesson that progressives should take from mikhail gorbachev, jonathan jake joins us to explain that. we're back in a moment. this week is your chance to try any subway footlong for free. like the subway series menu. just buy any footlong in the app, and get one free. free monsters, free bosses, any footlong for free! this guy loves a great offer. so let's see some hustle! at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow.

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okay. >> on the very same day a federal investigation reportedly was opened into the washington commanders' business practices, owner dan snyder signaled he might, he might sell at least a part of the team to hallelujahs from washington football fans. >> what? oh, my god. >> nbc's garrett headache -- haake explains. >> reporter: dan snyder again in the spotlight, espn reporting the u.s. attorney's office in the district of virginia has opened a criminal investigation into the commanders over financial impropriety. the commanders law firm calling the allegations of impropriety untrue. it comes as snyder and his wife, tanya, announced wednesday they hired bank of america to consider potential transactions including selling all or part of

their storied nfl franchise. >> for a community that has wanted him out for a while, it's huge. for a league that wants him out, it's huge. >> reporter: washington's football team hasn't won a playoff game since 2006. but the team's biggest challenges have occurred off the field including a long-running debate over whether to change the team's original name, seen as racist, a change snyder long opposed, to alleged friction with other owners. according to an espn report last month, multiple anonymous sources said they'd heard snyder told his lawyers to hire private investigators to look into other team owners. the commanders denied that report. and there have been multiple allegations of sexual harassment and a toxic workplace that led the nfl to fine snyder $10 million. fine snyder $10 million. craig melvin asked the team president jason wright about that in february. >> this has been widely reported to be a toxic workplace. what have you done to fix that.

>> the rebrand has been an interesting period because it's coincided about a var rapid and irreversible change with the organization. >> roger goodell grilled about them on capitol hill. it is clear that the workplace in washington was unprofessional and unacceptable in numerous respects. >> snyder was invited, but did not attend that hearing. >> appearing mr. snyder is in france where he has docked his luxury yacht near a resort town. >> the decision was met with joy, who have been known to carry signs at games to urge snide tore sell. >> hallelujah, thank you, jesus. >> a little shimmy. i'll do a little shimmy. >> garrett haake reporting. washington post has a headline, dan snyder gives commanders fans hope for an ownership change. me bought the team in '99 for $800 million. it's worth nearly $6 billion now, one of the most valuable

franchises on earth despite the fact that they don't win and they haven't, but that's not the points to him. he's made a ton of money. >> he is probably the most hated owner in the nfl, certainly all professional sport at this point now that donald sterling no longer runs the clippers. yesterday was a big day for fans in the football football area. the possibility that he might sell the team. the losing culture that built a terrible stadium and snyder thinks they need a new one. loss after loss after loss for what once was a proud franchise that won two super bowls and now a laughing stock. >> i'll tell you what, when i was there in the '90s. >> it was joe gibbs. >> and everybody -- everybody was a red skins fan. you went there and i commented because i'm in sec football land and i just commented to friends. these people are as crazy about football. >> that's a little -- that's a

stretch. >> and it was a great, beautiful thing. sunday was just when the whole community came together that's changed completely. back to politics now. back in 1986 mikhail gorbachev who opened his party's community congress with this quote, without glasnost there is not, there cannot be democratism, and management. partly to be transparent, the term glasnost markeded a shift to russia toward its future and toward the rest of the world. now our next guest argues in a piece in "new york" magazine that progressive america needs its own glasnost and to speak out against the madness. the author of that piece jonathan chate.

good to have you on. >> jonathan, explain, if you will. >> thank you. >> i was kind of commenting off of some reporting that eric wimpel did for "the washington post." he went back and looked at what happened at "the new york times" in 2020 when there was a furor over the tom codnet ad. what i thought was interesting was he didn't straightforwardly say what was happening because he was afraid of losing hb job and that was what i was hearing that they were afraid to say what they honestly thought what was happening within their own institutions. so the conclusion i drew from this is a lot of these institutions did some pretty crazy things and we need some reckonings and openings so we can connect some of the errors that were done and figure out why these mistakes were made and go forward in a more open way.

so i thought the glasnost comparison was smart, and i'm not saying it was a soviet in place, and i thought it was an interesting comparison. >> i hear a lot in focus groups from trump supporters that he liberated them to tell it like it is and to say things that weren't to be said. what comparison is there with that here, and i know that sounds strange, but it is almost -- there's policing speech for the purposes of social graces and then there's policing speech because it's offensive. >> yeah. i don't think there is any comparison, and trump supporters were ever prevented saying when they think and especially in these conservative spaces. donald trump says completely racist things all the time and the biggest host on fox news is

he's a white nationalist. so they're repurposing a critique of the left to amplify their inclinations and disassociate themselves from that while looking at progressive spaces saying we need liberal values. >> and let's be very specific here and let me offend a lot of people here because that's what i do. >> we only have four minutes left. let's try to do a show without offending someone. >> how many progressives would say quietly and say the pin swimmer that transitioned and say -- did you really? i don't think young women should have to compete against someone who transitioned after puberty and it's just not fair and i said well, why don't you write a column? i can't write a column about

that. 82% of americans. 82% of americans don't believe that men who transition post-puberty should be able to compete against women in sports. 82%. and yet, if you have that conversation on television in news, if you write an op-ed about it suddenly you hate and you're a hater and so we just don't have the conversation, despite the fact that the international sports association, i think, came to the same conclusion that 82% of americans made -- i'm not saying that 82% of americans think it that it's right or that it's wrong, but i suggest we ought to be able to have that debate on television without people being scared for their jobs. i'm not saying that people would lose their jobs, see what i have to do here? i'm just saying we have to be able to debate issues like this,

and other issues that might make us uncomfortable. >> yeah. that's right. there have always been some limits on what people feel they can say in polite society for good reason. you don't want people to say things like tucker carlson says on msnbc and cnn. you don't have white nationalists on your program and i think that's the correct decision, but i think in a lot of these institutions people really are afraid as wemple admitted and they're criticisms and that can create an unhealthy atmosphere where the people who have the most fanatical or extreme ideas can you have abouter everyone else into going along with their positions, so i think you need to strike a healthy balance and what wemple was admitting that we don't strike a healthy balance. >> he was afraid to write that column for two and a half years and a lot of people were afraid

to write that column for two and a half years and write it for "new york" magazine. jonathan chait, thank you so much. >> we have 90 seconds to talk about this. we need 90 minutes to talk about this. >> we are trying to find where the boundaries are and we're trying to figure out how to be together differently and what jonathan chait is an old argument from central liberals and we can trace it back to the 20th century, where they have to split the difference. how do we critique fascism and hold off the left flank at the same time and they find themselves pinched in by this desire and the result is you end up with the kind of milk toast liberalism. >> oh, come on! >> we'll end the show like that? i have to follow that? no! but there are issues like this, like crime we've been talking about for days and days saying i

don't want to go back to the law and order state where people of color are put in prison for a long time when they shouldn't be, but i also don't think my toothpaste should be locked up at the duane reade. >> i couldn't get batteries yesterday. >> there's the intellect cat word and standing up for what you believe in and not saying anything that is actually offensive or racist. >> i think the most sensitive -- i loved the governor of utah when he was talking about this issue, about people who have transitioned and whether they should be excluded or not. of course, his veto was overwritten, but he talked about, we have to remember the humanity on both sides. the humanity of those who want to swim and those who want to compete and we need to balance and interest and always remain compassionate and humane. >> all right. that's very lovely, joe. that does it for us -- >> is