but americans have already been voting in massive numbers. right now, 36 million americans have cast their ballots in these midterm races. which is on track to be a record breaking number. and they have been passing those ballots through early voting, or returning to drop boxes, or through the mail. as where it is people are about the future of this country, people are out there doing the right thing. which is voting. that is great for democracy. undeniably. it is the only way that this process works, and stays working. so keep doing it! if you haven't already, go cast that ballot! i'll see you on the other side. now it's time for the kornacki county with steve kornacki. steve kornacki>> three days, 199 minutes 55 seconds and counting until the first polls close on

election night, i'm steve kornacki. coming to you from, well, not from -- and rockefeller center are user location for our friday night. instead i'm at the historic, world famous keenan course in lexington, kentucky. the six congressional district in kentucky. tomorrow is going to be the biggest day in horse racing. the breeders cup championship races. featuring some of the best for service from all around the world, but tonight, we are here to talk about the election. the midterms. now just days away, the final piece is being done by candidates all across the country, here, building towards tuesday night already, tens of millions of votes have been cast in this election, when all is said in that we are anticipating a turnaround in the midterm election. it's going to shatter all existing record, north of 120 million people who cast vote so the interest level is extremely

high, the stakes are high. let's take you through what that looks like again, if you need a reminder here, right now, the battle for the house democrats with a narrow majority here, republicans need a gain of just five seeds that would get control of the house in the senate, 50/50 right now. democrats with power there. thanks to the tie breaking broke of kamala harris. then that game of one seat. they would take over the senate, here is the generic ballot average that we've been following asking folks, democrats or republicans who would you vote for congress and you see the real clear politics average we've been following them this fall they. have a republican advantage of about three points, it's about that level, in the real politics effort for a couple of weeks now, the average also feel during republicans. not by that much, just over a point in that average. generally, you look at the poll averages. you're seeing some kind of republican edge, unclear exactly just how much that edge is and again there is that

x-factor of exactly what turnout's gonna look like when you're talking about the kind of huge numbers that we are looking at. this, the senate battleground map in blue, the five most vulnerable democratic seat and red. the five most vulnerable republican held seats. one of the things we've been talking about on our friday night shows an in general is the importance, the central importance of pennsylvania when it comes to the battle for the senate. why? because pennsylvania as you see is a republican healthy right now, the incumbent not running for reelection but the estate that also joe biden carried in 2020. the state that made him president, the importance of pennsylvania for democrats means that if they can carry pennsylvania, huge if they are but if democrats can flip pennsylvania and all of the red states here, it's probably the best flip opportunity if they can then they can absorb a loss in one of these blue states, and one of their seats right now, if democrats were to lose, they would be okay and their majority would remain intact if

they can flip pennsylvania or another red sea on this map, but again pennsylvania has consistently been the most promising for them, again, the poll numbers we've seen a number come out in the state, one tie, one putting them as a republican ahead, three showing john fetterman, a democrat continuing to read. the significance? most of these polls, just about all these polls conducted a tie early after that debate between mehmet oz and john fetterman. a lot of discussion about whether there will be huge fallout from that, the poll numbers now looking hugely different than they did before that debate. in pennsylvania, going to take center stage in a whole new way tomorrow because you're gonna have not one, not, two but three people who either are or were a president of the united states in pennsylvania tomorrow, campaigning for the senate race. you're going to have first, barack obama, the former president, he's gonna be there at noon in pittsburgh and allegheny county with john fetterman. this is obviously a blue county, the name of the game there for

democrats, drive up turnout, as much as they can. later in the day, interesting lee, in westboro county. donald trump is gonna be campaigning with mehmet oz. western pennsylvania general. when you get outside of the county, republican territory. obviously trying to drive up republican support there, but the risk, if your mehmet oz of appearing with donald trump, of making him such a big part of your closing message in pennsylvania is that trump lost pennsylvania, and one of the reasons that trump lost pennsylvania because of the ground he lost in the suburb. particular the suburbs right outside of pennsylvania. so for suburban counties there, bucks, chester montgomery delaware. if you look at the margin that he lost pennsylvania by in 2020, it will be accounted for almost entirely by the ground that he lost in those four suburban counties, so the risk for medivac oz, you can bring down -- you try to fire of the republican base, are you

simultaneously turning off voters, i know it's across the state, but there are certainly gonna hear about it. are you turning off the voters in the suburbs that you need? by the way, at the end of the night, joe biden, barack obama, charged veteran, john shapiro. they're all gonna be holding the rally. so all of them are gonna be in the keystone state tomorrow. who are already is in the keystone? state our own -- she has been covering that campaign, and she joins us now from wilkes-barre pennsylvania, dasha, tell us right now, three plus days from election day. how each campaign is feeling about where this race sits? >> steve, you set it up brilliantly. you had on so many factors that we're hearing constantly on the ground here. look, i'm in this county. this is an area that used to be, you well know, a democratic stronghold until it went for trump by double digits in 2016 in 2020. this is exactly the kind of area and blue collar county the democrats have lost because of that. they've got to win big in those

collar counties around philadelphia, montgomery county, and those suburbs. that's also where arts had tried to chip away at fetterman 's lead there. he's been targeting suburban women in particular with a lot of messaging, steve, around crime and inflation. and public safety. as we've been talking to voters, that message has been resonating. but you're absolutely right. there's a risk in the rally he will be attending this weekend. not only because he will be there on stage with trump, who lost spotsylvania, but also because the other name at that rally's republican candidate for governor, don mastriano. many republicans in -- the senate race's neck and neck. the governor's race -- joshua pirro has a huge lead. which, steve you know very well -- there are some voters who are splitting their tickets because, especially republicans, feel like they can't cast their ballots for mass rihanna -- i just had a chance to speak to him one-on-one. he's really trying to make the

case not only to democrats but republicans as well that there is a space here to vote for a more moderate candidate like himself take a listen to what he told me. we will will will we will will will we will will will we will will will we will will will we will will will we will will will >> mastriano has showed us who he is. he was part of the violent mob that surround up to the capitol on january the 6th. he was part of the violent mob that disobeyed police order. police died that day, and in the days thereafter. and instead of understanding the consequences of his actions, he is at it again, he continues with the lies, he has already told us that in 2024, he will decertify certain voting machines here in pennsylvania so that he can pick the winner, he is a clear and present changer to our democracy and he has to be defeated. >> and steve shapiro and the

democrats spent a lot of money putting that message on the air. oz has spent a lot of money putting the message about crime on the air. and we are running into so many voters here who are splitting their tickets, who are going shapiro and oz. we don't know what's gonna happen here but it's very possible that ticket splitters are going to be a big part of the story here in pennsylvania, potentially, and other states as well steve. >> all right dasha burns in pennsylvania i'm sure we'll see a lot of you in the next couple of days thank you for that report i appreciate it, and joining us now david, the former campaign manager and white house senior adviser to barack obama and he is an msnbc political analyst. and richard, he's also an nbc news political analysts. thanks for being with us. rachel, let's start with you, so i think this is a question that is hovered over a lot of the senate races this year where atmospheric lee, big picture, there are a lot of things working in republicans favor this midterm election

year, and yet you look at some of the candidates who are being put up in some of these swing states, you look at the mehmet oz in pennsylvania. he is very high negative numbers. when you pull it. you add in the fact that a couple days before the election he's gonna be appearing with donald trump who lost 2020 with doug mastriano who, by all accounts, is doing significantly worse than oz at the polls. it is pennsylvania state where republicans may be squandering what is otherwise a good political environment for them, and potentially losing a seat in the senate? >> well, i think oz, given his constraints as a candidate, it's not a natural fit in pennsylvania and all sorts of ways. has run quite an effective campaign, but there's this balance here there's not a natural connection even republicans developed for, not a lot of enthusiasm there. talking to republicans a couple weeks ago who was going door to door with activists in pennsylvania, and said all the activists are mastriano people. they're into him. and i'll give out the asma tyrrell and speak the oz lines at the door but they're not there for him. i think this is the balance he's looking at here, in the final weekend. he wants trump and mastriano to get some of that energy and enthusiasm and drive up the turnout in the western part of the state and then hope, you

know, trump's not on the ballot. and oz has done a lot to try and soften his image and he's a lot of non confrontational message in philadelphia in the suburbs and hope that's enough to thread the needle but this is perhaps a close senate race, in the country. and it wouldn't surprise me if you don't know on election night and we're still counting a couple days later. >> it took us to 11:30 am saturday at the election to call pennsylvania in 2020, point of reference for some folks there. david, i want to ask you her dash in that report talk about how much they oz campaign has been focusing on the issue of crime, we see that in pennsylvania we see that elsewhere and attempt by republican candidates they feel the wind back in part, a lot of those suburban voters who they lost ground within 2020. there is a piece in the american prospect from stan greenberg, longtime democratic pollster, he just put this up.

says, how democrats mishandled crime is the headline, in his view. he says they conducted research quoting from the piece here in the african american hispanic and asian american communities all of those communities pointed to the rising worry about crime, and they were worried more about the rising crime than the rise in police abuse, yet democrats throughout 2021 focused almost exclusively on the latter. he's making the case in this piece that the democrats created in the way they addressed crime in the last couple of years, they created a political opportunity, that republicans like mehmet oz can take advantage of and are taking advantage of. is he right? >> first of all, i tend to like those pieces that come out after the election. i find him to be most helpful. then, if you're gonna navigate a little bit. steve, listen, iran races for a very long time as you know. and every race, this isn't new.

this is core to the republican argument. no matter what's going on in terms of crime rates, up, down it doesn't matter. they try to turn you into soft on crime. i think that there is some things that probably certainly see more democrats talk about crime rates in red states, murder rates in red states. probably would've been useful to be talking about that three or four months ago. but you also have to just guarantee people you're gonna look out for them from a public safety standpoint i think john fetterman's trying to talk about that. so, there's no doubt that the crime issue is wounded democrats, maybe more than it needed to. and listen, my view and politics is, where you've got some weakness, whether it's exists neutrally or your opponent is gonna go there, you've got a fight that campaign within the campaign. that's the thing about campaigns, you have to kind of do it all. you have to push where you have offensive advantages and then build them out very have concerns. i agree with rich, you know,

trump was what 44,000 votes and 16 is pennsylvania margin? biden under 100,000? hard to believe the sting wouldn't be that close. everyone watching this should understand, you know, it is gonna be friday saturday before we know. because this looks like it's gonna be really really tight. and there's two things, dasha talked about the ticket splitters, clearly exist in pennsylvania. so the shapiro margin is gonna be important, if that gets high enough, there's not gonna be enough tickets for mehmet oz. rich mentioned the activist in mastriano. i would be looking very carefully, i don't think it's gonna be a lot of voters. but there may be some republicans who vote for mastriano and don't vote for us. and you know, if it's ten or 20,000 people that can make a difference, in a race like this there's nuances are gonna be really important. >> let me ask you, each just a quick question here is kind of a big picture. looking about the map here when it comes to the senate, rich all start with you. a stay, if you could give me a state where republicans are feeling generally good right now. where you think maybe they ought to be a little bit more worried.

in a state where republicans you think might be poised to do well but they were not talking about right now. >> well, they're being talked about. but arizona and new hampshire have really come back on to the board. we talked about arizona all along as a swing state. but masters has tighten that up, i think that's a toss-up. i think new hampshire is a toss-up, and if i'm not mistaken, they're not early vote. in new hampshire. so this kind of baltic surge could put them over the top. on election day. i'm not sure, maybe pennsylvania is the one to worry about. if you are a republican. there was a surge of optimism around the debate, fetterman didn't do well, but he's still leading in some polls. i think the map is such now that republicans can drop pennsylvania and still have really plausible paths to a majority. >> david, same question to you different twist, where democrats feeling good now that you're a little worried? and is there a state there that is not being talked about where you think democrats are poised

for a good night. >> well, i think both of the democratic candidates -- have run strong races in north carolina and ohio. the question is, can they get to 50. i think both gonna be close. jim ryan in particular i think is gonna be get voted -- in the year 2022. so maybe somehow you pull one of those off. i think i agree. new hampshire is tightening, and that's concerning. of course, you showed, if if fetterman wins. that's enormously strategically important. because it just up the degree of difficulty for republicans. but you know nevada, arizona, georgia, all of those could go either side, so if you're a democrat those are the ones you have to be, those are existential. and obviously if you win pennsylvania gives you a tiny bit of margin for error you

head in the ninth, maybe down a few the republicans to instead of one. that's an enormously big difference even though it may not seem like it on the face. but that would be my sense of it. i think ohio in north carolina are both gonna be close, it's just hard for democrat to get to 50 in those states. we'll see. did they get to 40 7:48, or can they pull something up and so much of this as you pointed out comes down to turnout. of all the polling and all the early vote we still don't really have getting idea about what that turnout is gonna look out as we begin to really count votes. >> all right, david plouffe enrich lowry thank you for joining us, and many of these friday nights that last month or so i've enjoyed appreciated. we are just getting started, breaking down the battle for the senate, you just heard the latest from pennsylvania, next we're gonna dive into two other crucial states, one where democrats came into this year thinking they had one of their best shots at a pick up, but now new numbers suggest trouble for them in another state where their candidate has seemingly defied political gravity all year. david plouffe was just talking about does tim ryan have a real chance at carrying ohio, we're on the ground live and next.

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toward election day toward the first -- paul closing on election night. so, we're talking about the battle for control of the senate again. republicans needing that gain of one seat if they're going to flip it if they're gonna get control, democrats try to keep them from doing that. we were talking in the last block about how important pennsylvania is to democrats, because it's a red seat right now. because biden won the state, such a golden opportunity for democrats to get a flip and then if you get a flip if you're a democrat you can afford a loss. what happens let's say if john fetterman the democrat does not come through for democrats in pennsylvania. if instead mehmet oz wins that race, then democrats are left scrambling but what other red state could they get and that's where they came up a little bit

at the end of the last block there. that's where for instance, ohio comes in. and the polling in ohio has been pretty close, you've got j. d. vance the republican, you got tim ryan the democratic congressman on average. vance the couple points ahead. you've seen some very close consistently close polls in the state. a lot of folks think that ryan has been running a very strong campaign here. here's the x-factor in ohio, it's how badly the polls have missed in ohio. the last couple of elections, we talk about polling misses all the time. they're not evenly spread out, in some states the polling is actually been pretty good the last couple of elections. not ohio. in 2016 and in 2020 you could see it right here, this was the final poll average, trump was barely ahead in ohio, democrats came in to both election night that he had they had a shot in ohio. trump and putting the state in a runaway. so, that is one of the questions here, is the polling missing in ohio again? or is this for real? does ryan have a shot at this. our own jesse curses on the ground in glendale, ohio near cincinnati. you've been talking this late race closely. what is your sense of it, how are republicans, how democrats feel about this race? today feel this is legitimately a 12 point race right now.

>> yeah, and i can tell you, steve, we heard from j. d. vance himself pointing to pulling inaccuracies. obviously, you're just looking at what we've seen, history has shown us in the past in the state tim ryan on the other side of this race. we'll tell you that he is trusting what he sees on the ground. compared to the polling. but money doesn't lie. we've seen a huge infusion of cash from national republicans, a group along with senate majority mitch mcconnell to help boost j. d. vance in recent months. that tells us at minimum they're focusing on this race trying to defend the seat for republicans. what really stood out to us about covering this back and forth between ryan and vance in recent months. is that unlike other races where you've seen democratic candidates stressing issues like election integrity and abortion for tim ryan. congressman right now. he's really zeroed in on the economy, specifically buzzwords of jobs, workers china. probably three of the words we

hear the most from him. he calls his campaign bus the workers first express. and on the other side of this race, we see j. d. vance talking about inflation, tying that to democratic policy and, tying ryan to those policies as tim ryan tries to keep the democratic party at arms length. we caught up with both candidates today, asked them what their messaging would be for undecided workers working in manufacturing, here's part of what they told us. >> for a factory worker, the thing that i'd say is, we're gonna lose every factory job in this country unless we have energy independence. energy independence is the core thing we need to bring manufacturing back to this country. >> we'll want them to know that j. d. vance has to donors with 55 million, mitch mcconnell, peter till. bought and paid for. tim ryan 445,000 donors, 95% of contributions are under 100 bucks. who's four who. >> and for what it's worth, steve, the vance campaign tells us that they have hundreds of thousands of donors as well. but you see the posturing there in the final days, and again,

this is right in the heartland obviously where manufacturing is key, and we're seeing more jobs coming back, so it'll be interesting to see who people give credit for the good that's done economically when you see thousands of jobs coming here in the days and weeks and years ahead but obviously there are the inflationary woes as, well i will take responsibility for, that will find out on tuesday. >> all right, jason kirsch in ohio, thank you for that in a 7:30 poll closing time in ohio. one of those states we could be getting a pretty early readout on how the night going. for portending at least elsewhere. so, from ohio, we're talking again here about the senate map. how about wisconsin. remember one of those vulnerable red seats ron johnson the republican running for a third term. and this is a state, you know, democrats came into the year thinking of all these red states, wisconsin might be their best chance at a flip. ron johnson has always been a polarizing figure in wisconsin, barely won reelection in 2016.

it was a big surprise that he did. there's been a change in the polling in wisconsin. you see the newest poll out, of wisconsin, it is johnson ahead by two points but this poll, i want to show you inside of it. it reflects a shift because over the summer in september this is the spectrum news and the college poll look how unpopular johnson was in wisconsin over the summer. 37 favorable, 50 unfavorable's democratic opponent mandela barnes was actually above water, will now, with johnson leading in the polls he's ticked up by six points. 's favorable rating and then bella barnes is unfavorable has gone up nearly ten points. so, we've talked about the johnson campaign spending heavily, really emphasizing the issue of crime. and really seems to have perhaps changed perceptions of these candidates, and no longer is wisconsin a democrats top target in terms of flipping a seat. they're still in the game, it doesn't look necessarily as rosy for them as it did a few months ago. shaq brewster is on the ground for us in milwaukee, shaq, i wonder if you could talk to us about those dynamics. this is still very much a close

game, but it appears that ron johnson has moved to this campaign, the discussion to some issues where he has some strength over barnes, the democrats might not have been expecting? >> right. no, that's exactly the case, steve. and this is been a busy week here in wisconsin. it started with the release of those polls that you talked about, those are the gold standard polls, both campaigns are tell you will tip a attention to them. the governors level we thought things were tied and then it what we saw there with the senate race. senator ron johnson has that two point lead, it's well within the margin of error, and it's tighter than what we saw even just last month. because of that, on the campaign trail, we've been seeing the attacks continue to escalate, senator ron johnson getting more personal, saying that lieutenant governor mandela barnes has to sustained in contempt for his country and for wisconsin nights. lieutenant governor barnes firing back and saying, senator ron johnson is in it for himself. he changes tax policies for the simple benefit of himself and his donors. you see those attacks flying, and you also starting to see some doubt, at least being raised by one of the candidates, senator ron johnson, about election results. i asked him after an event earlier this week, whether or not he would accept the

election results on tuesday. he essentially told me, it depends. he pointed to a story out of green bay with the republican lawsuit against election workers there. and then the firing of an election worker here in milwaukee. to say that there is some doubt there, the democrats in his words, are cheating in this election. that's something that democrats in the state have already been pushing back on, it's been a busy week and we know it's only going to get more intense as we get closer to election day, steve. >> all right, shaq brewster in wisconsin, the always swing state of wisconsin. jack, thanks for that. we got more, north carolina, nevada, the state that could keep us waiting all week. more from the battleground senate states right after this. >> all right, shaq brewster in wisconsin, the always swing state of wisconsin. jack, thanks for that. we got more, north carolina, nevada, the state that could keep us waiting all week. more from the battleground senate states right after this. senate states right after this. senate states right after this. senate states right after this. senate states right after this. senate states right after this.

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some of the states where democrats are trying to play off events, look at the senate battleground map here. states where democrats are trying to flip republican seats here. let's look at it from the other angle, look at democrats are most vulnerable here.

georgia, that race in georgia has been tight all year. take a look though, the dynamic in georgia is the dynamic right now of potential split ticket voting. something that was supposed to be extinct in our politics. but in the race for governor, you see brian kemp the republican incumbent, he's leading in the poll average by eight points over stacey abrams. he's over 50%, meanwhile, the republican herschel walker in the senate race running nearly five and a half points behind brian kemp. and actually behind in the poll average raphael warnock, the democratic incumbent. it's an interesting dynamic here, trump of course, donald trump went to war politically with brian kemp earlier this year. in a republican primary, kemp survived. did that win him over some of those trump skeptical suburban voters outside atlanta? herschel walker may be having some trouble with. could split ticket voting save a senate seat for democrats, our own -- is covering the georgia race, joins us now from georgia.

we have this x fire of -- a potential runoff in georgia, bring that aside for me for a minute, let's talk about the big picture dynamic of, there's this group of voters who are clearly ready to vote republican in the governor's race. but so far, the weekend before the election, have not been persuaded by herschel walker. who are we talking about here? and what do you think is going to decide how they ultimately cast their votes? >> steve, this race is dead even. you showed one polling average that shows the contest within a point, there's another polling average by 5:38 that shows the contest at one tenth of one percentage point, between the two. that's how close it is. there is a possibility that neither candidate gets to 50% required by state law to avoid a runoff. in which case, it would be on december 6th would be when that runoff is held, and if democrats hold their own elsewhere, georgia's runoff could once again decide which party controls the united states senate. now, there's no question, steve, that down the stretch herschel walker had the momentum.

he's got political gravity on his side. he's in a state where republicans have structural advantages, as a republican stronghold, about two years ago when presidents low approval rating concerns about the economy are propelling him on the other hand you have raphael warnock who's sharpened his attacks lately, portraying herschel walker as someone who is unfit to serve in the senate, given his lack of knowledge about the issues, given his turbulent past. allegations of violence and there are ultimately three questions steve that will decide the outcome of this race. and how voters come down. the first is rural areas. are they gonna show a big heavy turnout, that's a mega country, republicans need that. the second question, are democrats going to show the same kind of firepower that they showed in recent cycles where there really surge their own turnout. they're gonna need that to have a shot and both of those things happen. and to your question, it's going to be the suburban moderate college educated voters in places like where i am right now, atlanta metro area, who flip from republican to democrat who are crucial to joe biden carrying the state in 2020. and raphael warnock us as well senator john -- winning georgia at that point. the single biggest question

here could be whether raphael warnock can hold on to that suburban moderate maybe center-right swing voter who doesn't like the direction of the republican party. raphael warnock has tried to appeal to them in paths where he tells testimonials from those types of voters. saying they're gonna support him not only is that gonna be important in georgia steve it could decide arizona in pennsylvania. >> fascinating split ticket voting, we thought it was a thing of the past, could decide this election. thank you for that. and from georgia we take a look at north carolina, what you're seeing here is the presidential result in 2020 from north carolina. remember this one kept us waiting for about a week before we declared donald trump did carry north carolina here the margin was barely a point, and what's interesting is, that trump margin was down, it was more than a three and a half points in 2016 joe biden in the democrats were able to eat away in a lot of that trump advantage though he still ended up prevailing by 75,000 votes, there were suburbs outside of charlotte outside of rally in particular where democrats saw movement. and a tough midterm environment for them but a state where there is growth potential in the suburbs. it's given them hope, it's maybe this is a republican held

senate seat richard burr retiring that they could pick up and antonio hill a reporter is on the ground in north carolina. and in tonya, i know you caught up with both cheri beasley the democrat and ted -- the republican. a race that's flown a little bit under the radar nationally, but again, in a state where it's very tight in 2020. >> that's right, steve. i spent some time with both of them today in the western part of the state. for representative bud that meant being friendly territory, some rural communities that overwhelmingly went for trump. he's talking to voters in most cases had already voted for him, and his message to them was to try and get other people in these rural areas who may still be on the sidelines or forgot to participate in the midterms, to the polls as fast as they can. cheri beasley was here in these

same areas, again, these plus 36 trump counties for example. and she has really taken a unique strategy for democrats, who normally in north carolina spent almost all their time and urban centers, just trying to drive their numbers up there. but she's got a different tactic going on here. she's trying to get some of these voters some of these democrats and some of these black voters who live in these rural counties often get ignored, and drive them to the polls. that's what she thinks is going to help her get this winning coalition that people in her view, maybe sleeping on. right now. take a listen to my conversation with both candidates, i had a wide-ranging conversation with both of them from everything from abortion in the economy to the threats of democracy and how voters are feeling about both of these candidates right now. take a look. >> what about abortion restrictions, this is the number two question i get. what would the ideal abortion policy or restriction look like. and that's really for you, but also for you.

the two of you will be working together. >> it's not what north carolinians are talking about. i talked north carolina or will about access to abortions all the time. so, what we're -- how extreme they are. this is what democrats want. abortion at anytime for any reason all the way up to the moment of birth. and they want that attachment expense, and that is wildly out of step with north carolinians. >> ted biden's national republican allies have been spending millions of dollars against me to distort my judicial record. because they know we really can win this race. they don't spend that kind of money unless they know. and well ted budd is set a whole lot of things, what he hasn't talked about is what he's done. he's the one who's been in congress for six years, he said every opportunity to work hard to lower costs for folks here in north carolina. which is a huge issue. >> ted budd right now is just a bit ahead of cheri beasley, the reality is, this race is closer than many republicans wanted to be. or thought that it would be. and so, neither of these

candidates are resting on their laurels at the moment, both of them are circling around all 100 counties, trying to get as many people in this large group of unaffiliated voters in the state undecided voters in the state and try to get them to get their friends, their mom the grandma to the polls right now. and it's really, you know, again people say this is ted budd's race to lose. i try to tell people not to sleep on north carolina. because of just all of the sort of unknown factors here. this is steve a really interesting state and with all the new voters and undecided unaffiliated voters here i think there's going to be some interesting information we get closer to tuesday. >> in north carolina, also be interesting just because the poll closing time, 7:30 and a report out a ton of votes very quickly usually in north carolina. again it could be one of those early indicators from north carolina we head west to the silver state, nevada. catherine cortez masto, democratic incumbent, trying to

hold on against republican adam laxalt. in the trump era, the state of nevada moved in the republican direction. you see biden won it. blue state in 2020. about two and a half points. pretty much the same as it was in 2016 but looked before trump came along, we were starting to think of nevada as something getting close to a safely blue state barack obama won it by seven points in his reelection in 2012. all the way down to about two and a half republicans have felt for a few years now, that they are on the cusp of getting over the top of nevada. this is the year they could finally do it it is this the senate race that could potentially, if they get, it potentially give them control of the chamber. no one better to bring in here then from nevada there is. john rawlston from nevada. sorry, i thought we didn't have there for a second. mr. nevada politics, john, you know nevada elections you've seen many of them. what is your sense, the weekend

before this campaign, where the senate race stance. >> steve, as you know we've had some really close senate races here in nevada. in fact harry reid, who held kathleen cote's masto seat before she did, had some very close races. this is a very, very close race. it's a mid term in a purple state. yeah, you're right about the slight rightward turn that the republicans hope to capitalize on, they thought they could in 2020. now, they think they can, there's a lower turnout, the democrats have not done what they did during the reid era. which is build up this large bank of early votes, people deride trying to make projections of early votes, but here in nevada, as you know, so much of the vote is in before election day. often at least two thirds. and the democrats only have a 1% lead statewide. in the early voting ends today. mail ballots can come in for the next week. and this race is about as close

as anyone as i've ever seen. democrats are optimistic that she can hang on, but republicans are almost equally optimistic that adam laxalt is gonna pull this one out. >> john rawlston in nevada, i'm sure we'll check in with you a little bit over the next week as that nevada race gets decided. thank you for joining us. up next, the battle for control of the house, ready to talk to somebody whose job it is to know the polls politically. in all 435 districts. what is amy walter of the political report think about where the battle for the house stands on this weekend before the election, that's next. ladies... welcome to my digestive system. when your gut and vaginal bacteria are off balance. you may feel it. but just one align women's probiotic daily helps soothe digestive upsets. and support vaginal health. welcome to an align gut. ♪

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showed you at the top of the show. again, this is generic ballot averages they ask in the polls. do you want the democrats for the republicans to be controlling congress. you got two different averages here, real clear politics 5:38, bit of a difference between the two. each showing the republicans with an edge. almost three points real clear politics just over a point in the 5:38 average. and as i said, this numbers been about where it is right now. for a few weeks now it's caused i think a lot of folks to not be sure what to think about this upcoming midterm election. there's been a lot of discussion about the quality of the polls that go into these poll averages about the differences you can see from average to average and about the fact that hey, there are some past midterm elections where if you look at the

generic ballot average the weekend before the election. it's very clear which party was poised to have a huge night in 20 the democrats are up 78 points in the generic ballot. in 2010 the republicans, when they won 63 seats in barack obama's first midterm, had giant leads in the generic ballots. sometimes you look at the generic ballot, and it's very clear at the weekend before worst going you look at the generic ballot this year you might scratch your head a little. you might scratch final when you look at some of the polls that we've seen from some of the individual house races to. environment that seems to favor republicans, but some numbers that make you think, is there anything else going on here? as our low bit more complicated? to try and untangle this, the weekend before the election, we thought there'd be no one better to talk to about the battle for the house then the

editor of the cook political report amy walter. amy, i'm curious all the midterm elections i'm talking about here, 2018 to 2010, 2016. you know them you remember them i'm curious, do you think >> i think you put it really well, steve. the environment, clearly, benefiting republicans. just a national narrative, where the focus is right now. on the economy, the focus on inflation. that's definitely helping republicans. the other thing we forget, steve, it's a redistricting year. and i don't know that we've paid enough attention or given enough attention credit just how important that issue is, especially in some of these races where incumbent democrats like the chair of the democratic congressional committee running a district that 75% new to him many of these members are running in districts that on paper are

competitive. but, where they don't know their constituents because they quite frankly haven't been on the ballot before. there are so many cross currents going out here steve that it's an interesting to watch some of these democrats who were in tight races right now tough races in states and in districts that on paper looks safe. but because of redistricting as well as the fact that in many of these states, you have either an unpopular governor or issues going on in those blue states that are also causing people to look for change. >> the other question here is turn out. when we talk about potential 120 to 130 million people. that used to be high for a presidential election now we're talking about that many voting in a midterm election. is that a variable that you consider to just in terms of creating more uncertainty heading into election day? >> absolutely. the thing that's given me a lot of uncertainty is where

independent voters are going. usually, at this point the election, and that generic ballot, it's pretty clear where independent voters are leaning. but in the most recent polls we've seen independent voters again depending on the model whether it's a likely voter or registered voter model anywhere from a low of three points separating democrats and republicans among independents to a high of 15 points. whether these independent voters, many of them say this close to the election that maybe they just don't show it at all. and what is that due to our turnout. and what does that mean for the final results. >> you've given me yet another possibility to think about their. as we head into the final weekend here amy walter political report thank you and good luck to you the next few days. >> countdown continues right after this.

and that does it for the countdown here at kaitlan racecourse in lexington, kentucky. if you need a quick break from politics this weekend, the breeders cup is right here tomorrow, this is the world championship of horse racing. nine races with the top horses from all over the globe, including one named flight line, remember that name, some say he is the best horse since secretariat. he'll run in the 6 million

dollar breeders cup classic, that's the biggest race on horse racing's biggest day. also, by the way, is the best betting day if you're into that at all. coverage starts tomorrow. 1 pm eastern on usa, and in 3:30 pm eastern on nbc. of course, i will see you on tuesday. election day, and election night for live coverage analysis. starting at 6 pm eastern. right here on msnbc. thanks for watching the countdown in the 11th hour starts right now with stephanie ruhle, who has your governor kathy hochul with your. tonight, the document deadline for the january six committee to the former president passes. and he's got more time now to give up the goods. but as he just running out the clock? and lies, fear in the future of democracy. governor kathy hochul is here on what would happen if a republican took over new york. and the warning it sends across the country. and one week ago, he told