good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. as we come on the air, 40 million people have already cast their votes. when the election day polls

open, millions more will do the same. the domino effect of who wins and who loses will serve not just as a referendum on the nation and its politics, but a single senate seat, a houseful of house seats will have an impact on this country and the leaders's futures. >> the power of america is in your hands. it really is. >> a rematch between president biden and former president trump. trump is clearly up for the fight. what he is saying on the campaign trail, including a preview of what could be a mild primary fight for the republican nomination. >> i'm in the classroom. please hurry. there's a lot of dead bodies. >> could that ad featuring a 9

11 call from the shoot anything uvalde be the last-minute push to the governor's race. we'll discuss it later in the show. but we start with that fran sick push to get voters to the polls on the eve of one of the wildest, most consequential and most closely fought midterm elections of our lifetime. a new poll by nbc news shows democrats are just as enthusiastic as republicans about voting. that's critical. because right now average polls show at least a dozen senate and governor's races are within the margin of error. a half dozen just outside it. that's why everything now hinges on a single message from both sides. get out and vote. >> if you ain't got friends, go make some friends. we're going to need every one of you to vote. >> we think the silent majority

will come out. >> we want people to vote their conscious. >> it's really geared towards turnout. >> don't complain. don't mope. don't tune out. get off your couch and what. >> vote! >> put down your phones and do what? >> vote! >> msnbc a little bit analyst and matt gorman, republican strategist and former communications director for the nrcc. great to have all of you here. the call from former president obama we just heard was in philly this weekend. you have been there so long. what's the feeling on the ground now?

what's the mood among voters? >> well, speaking of that call, get out and vote. that is what these leads behind me, sue and jean ann are trying to get the folks to vote. squirrel hill. heavily democratic. the goal is turnout. in our final nbc news poll, it showed two-thirds of voters made up their minds about which way they were going to vote by labor day. which means the last couple of months have been the last third of undecideds. that number even smaller now. because this race is just so tight, every persuadable voter is going to count. i have seen a lot of changes here the last year talking to voters. earlier this year small businesses in this area. there goes sue knocking on a

door. they were dealing with supply chain issues. frustrated with the biden administration. i'm talking democrats and republicans. in the summer you had the dobbs decision, concern over abortion rights. it got a lot of people angry and energized. as they started to feel the bench at the pump, the gas prices now concerned about heating. and crime particularly in the suburban areas. i have been talking to suburban women. there are a lot of factors that could impact voters, including the final messages from the candidates. as you heard, there were big name stumping for democrats and republicans. and dr. oz on the stage had this to say which could cause a

little bit of an issue. >> tomorrow morning when you awaken, i want you to contact 10 people. do it at church, before the steelers game. just find the time. here's the question you're going to ask them. are you happy with the way america is going? >> chris, here's the problem. the steelers had a bye this weekend. and of course the big message from the fetterman campaign. the campaign ads are he doesn't know pennsylvania. gaffes like that could be a problem in the stretch here. we're not going to get results on election night most likely. we will be here covering it. >> try to hang in there, dasha. so democrats have caught up to republicans. but the president is under water. you just heard what dasha had to say. it's reflected in a poll.

19%. just 19% are happy with the way the economy is looking. so i guess the question is does enthusiasm trump that? how do we look at the numbers and make sense of them, mark? >> i think there are two forces at play this midterm election. number one, the fundamentals. the 81% who are dissatisfied with the state of the economy or only 19% are satisfied. 72% think the country is headed the wrong direction. president biden's job rating is at 44%. all ends up being in shell lacking territory. you have democrats more fired up for the party that's in control. you end up having a situation where donald trump is so much more unpopular than joe biden in our poll. the first force, the fundamentals. the other force, the polarization. democrats will try to meet toe to toe when it comes to thaoupl. going to tomorrow night and the

counts that will follow day after day, which is more powerful. is it the fundamentals that could eliminate tuesday night and beyond. the biggest question, are we going to know everything on election night? no. juanita, i want to play what happened on "morning joe" with keisha lance bottoms specifically in her state of georgia. >> we are leading in the early vote in georgia. but if we don't push all the way through, if we don't make it until the final second, final minute in turning out the vote, then we could fall short. >> of course that's not just true for georgia. a lot of states -- and i wonder from what you're seeing in the early voting numbers, what it will take from democrats to hold off the number of republican voters who are expected to vote tomorrow. >> it's going to take what

keisha lance bottoms just said, getting all the way through. and i appreciate dasha being with the organizers today. as a girl who started in campaign organizing, that is the name of the game. make sure you get as many to the polls, whether it's early or on election day, is critical here. chris, at the start of the show you talked about how you have six to eight within the margin of error. that means it will come down to every last vote. i appreciate when former president obama was in pennsylvania. he talked about 2010, 2014. he named how the only way to avoid that outcome is by turning out voters. you better believe democrats are looking at the fact that 41 million votes have already been cast and hoping that that gives them a degree of advantage. now, we don't have full partisan data. but of the 23 states that do report partisan data, democrats are looking at a 10-point

advantage. that is critical knowing republicans are either going to vote late as in the last few hours of early voting or on election day. it is going to come down to who shows up. >> matt, there was something fascinating a thought in the "washington post". they're reporting, at least in arizona, republicans are switching their message and telling people they actually should vote early instead of waiting until tomorrow. it says it stems from worries that attacks on early voting could suppress the republican vote. what do you think of that theory? >> whether you vote today, a week from today, tomorrow, it counts the same. just vote. the name of the game is purely turnout right now. if you are persuadable, i want to meet you there. after a year people are very

plugged in. nevada. they have doubled turnout in georgia. spacey abrams said jim crow 2.0 if the election reform laws pass. here we are double turnout. >> this election is unique in a whole lot of ways. it's the first since the height of covid. the first since january 6th. so much has changed in our political discourse. do you think all models of voter behavior will stand up in today's environment? are we in the middle of something completely new here? >> if we're in the middle of something completely new, there's been no real warning signs of that. abc news came out with a poll. the economy. inflation. crime. those are the top issues. whether it's covid or january

6th, there aren't issues resonating with most voters, according to the polls. so, again, i think they will be outliers. they tend to trend in a direction pretty favorable for my party. >> which is why there is nervousness among democrats. president biden and former president clinton were both in new york state campaigning with governor kathy hochul. i read this morning that john ralston, who knows nevada almost better than anybody, thinks masto can win her race there. realistically, what is a good night for democrats? what's it look like? >> i'll be real, chris. no one knows what's going to happen. a good night for democrats is

trying to limit the losses. especially where democrats have made this competitive. they are in the game. the goal is to limit the losses on the senate side, trying to pick up one or two seats and save seats like nevada and new hampshire. one thing we are not talking about enough is the republicans picked up seats in redistricting. especially when the house margin was six seats going into the midterms. limiting losses is the name of the game for democrats who overcame so many things to make the midterms competitive. >> mark, i go back to you. as somebody who studied the most recent poll. the biggest factors at play are? >> the biggest at play, i would see where president biden's job rating is. if it's 44% like in our poll,

democrats actually have to outrun him significantly. >> even places like new york. >> in places like new york. it means maybe he is at 48, 49% in a place like new york. you might end up being 39, 40, 41 in georgia. it puts stress on rafael warnock. for democrats, a great sign. once you get a lot of the exit poll that comes in, is this number in a stable place? if it is, it could be a better than expected night for democrats. if not, the other way around. >> could we have a lot of races not decided tomorrow? we know they will be some. >> it will be a long week, chris. >> let's prepare. get the cupboards stopped. thank you so much. mark murray, juanita, matt, thank you to all of you. expect lawsuits over each

and every ballot. we're already seeing that in multiple states. republicans have filed lawsuits all with a goal oven forcing technicalities, including incorrectly dated envelopes or missing witness addresses. that can result in thousands of absentee votes being thrown out n. georgia, the aclu filed its own lawsuit saying 1,000 voters did not receive absentee ballots when they should have. blayne alexander has that from atlanta. what's going on there? explain it to us. >> well, chris, we know right now attorneys are in the courtroom arguing both sides of this. the aclu filed a lawsuit saying there were a thousand people who didn't get the absentee ballots from cobb county. the law states they have to be

received by the close of polls on election day. so we're talking about 7:00 p.m. tomorrow. the aclu is saying there's no way that these hundreds of people can get them back this that amount of time. many don't have a way to vote ourselves. they're arguing saying the people should have an extension, that they should be able to be received until the monday after election day. now, i want to talk to you of course every vote is valuable. cobb county specifically is a place we have been watching closely. i have spoken to you live a number of times. both parties see it as the key to victory. it's full of swing voters. so certainly a lot of focus on cobb county. we expect the decision to come down any time now to see how the

hundreds of ballots will be treated. chris. >> this is the start of something. blayne alexander, thank you so much. in the last hour or so, government prosecutors started their cross-examination of oath keepers founder stewart rhodes at his seditious conspiracy trial. he has been not yet questioned about january 6th. earlier today he testified that entering the u.s. capitol was, quote, never part of the mission on january 6th. he took it a step further and called it stupid. rhodes is on trial with four others, all of them facing 20 years in prison if convicted. coming up next, battleground arizona. races for governor and senate are dead heats. insights from a former governor who knows what makes the difference in running a successful business.

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in arizona today, the red-hot races for both senate and governor are a statistical dead heat. republican blake masters is up a single point on mark kelly. threats of political violence as well as voter intimidation are on the rise in that state. just this weekend an envelope containing a suspicious white substance was found at the kari lake campaign headquarters. a were toer two-term governor and secretary of homeland

security in the obama administration is now professor of public policy at uc berkeley where she founded for the center for security in politics. perfect person to have on today. so glad to see you. secretary, you know arizona because you were successful campaigning for governor there. i wonder what makes you hopeful for democrats and what keeps you up at night? >> well, what keeps me up at night is not only the closeness of the polls but the republicans have nominated a whole slate of election deniers and people who are saying if they lose of course the election was riggeding et cetera. you know, to win in arizona, you have to pull out the democratic vote and then do well with the independent voters who are roughly a third of the electorate. if you can put together that kind of coalition and get out

your vote, democrats can win and have won in arizona. >> can we talk about go tv. how much is going to come down to the ground game. in just a few county counties, what will you be watching? >> the ground game is everything right now. of course many,s many arizonans vote by mail. that has been a tradition going back decades. vote by mail was almost 40% when i was running in the early 2000s. those have now primarily been cast, right. those are done. now it's the ground game. i hear from arizonans that particularly senator kelly has a

good field operation, following up, chasing ballots, et cetera, to get out that vote. that will be very important. i will pay particular attention to maricopa county. that's where phoenix is countied. almost 60% of the vote comes from that one county. how well the democrats do will probably tell us how the state is going to go. >> what are the chances you think we will have winners very quickly? >> oh, i think the watch word for tuesday is patience. not only in arizona but in a number of states. the count will be very close. and every vote needs to be counted. and that takes some time. >> you had to confront the problem of political violence. a recent survey by uc davis

found tpwhupb five, nearly 20%, agreed strongly or very strongly that violence or force is needed to protect american democracy when, quote, elected leaders will not. are you worried about tomorrow? and are you worried that just the threat, the perception of it being dangerous to go to the polls could keep some people home? >> well, i think the security and integrity of our electoral system is a basic part of our democracy. you know, it does worry me when 20% of the poll respondents say violence is justified. it's not justified. you have to go vote. in arizona, for example, we already had one court case where folks who were carrying arms were monitoring dropboxs for

ballots. they were taking photos of license plates and the like. the court ultimately said, no, you couldn't do that. but clearly it's an intimidation tactic. and i'm afraid we will see it tomorrow in arizona and other states across the country. >> skwraepbt napolitano, come back again soon. thank you so much. appreciate it. >> you bet. next we're in ohio where the former president will be stumping for republican jd vance in his battle against tim ryan. the new poll showing where that race stands in the 11th hour. what's the impact of having donald trump on the trail in these final hours even as he tests a possible 2024 run. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. g "chrisg reports" only on msnbc were you scared of him?

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but both candidates claim victory is in sight. >> i think we're going to win because people are very frustrated with the direction of our country. >> we have been everywhere. and i am telling you we're going to win this race. >> come tomorrow, of course, only one of them can be right. keep your eye on the three cs. cleveland, columbus, cincinnati. big turnout must happen there if ryan is going to stage an upset. jesse kirsch has been on the ground speaking to the candidates and the voters who will decide this race. jesse, you have been there. you felt the ebb and flow in this race. i wonder what the feeling is on the ground. do you have the sense that the momentum has shifted given what the polls suggest. >> as they make their way across the state, and we have been catching up with them over the last stretch over the weekend. they are both drawing people out. i think what stands out as you look at the last couple of days of campaigning, you have

governor mike dewine and jd vance contrasted with congressman tim ryan, who is pretty much out there on his own. bernie co saturday, a cleveland great, who you are a fan of, i know, has backed tim ryan. we saw him touting that. he had dave matthews performing for him. beyond that, he hasn't had any big name politicians. we haven't seen president biden, former president obama. no one like that campaigning with him here. that is the persona he is trying to project. you talk about the three cs. we have talked with the secretary of state's office here. the first votes we will be seeing will be toward the vote that has been processed so far. a lot of it is being sorted through and ready to be tabulated as soon as the polls close. the secretary of state points out that typically is something that skews more democratic. when people are watching, something important to stress,

you might see what looks like a bump for ryan. it is not necessarily an indicator of what's coming. >> i want to play something he said over the weekend. >> trump was perceived as being strong. strong on china, strong on trade, strong on defense. jd vance is perceived as an ass kisser. he is kissing trump's rear end. they want strong leadership. >> when you look at the numbers, the emerson poll shows in mid-october, men were breaking for vance by 13 points and women for ryan by 10. in the past few weeks, vance has expanded his lead to 18 over ryan. ryan's lead among women has diminished to one point. what are you hearing from both campaigns?

>> something that has stuck out is the democratic nominee for governor, nan whaley, not far from where i am now, she has emphasized the abortion issue, something democrats have been hoping will resonate with many voters, among them women. tim ryan won't shy away if you ask him about it, but he does not make that a key issue. you look at what he has emphasized. he seems to see something that will resonate there as opposed to highlighting some of the other issues we have seen democrats highlighting in other races across the country. chris. >> i was born and raised in ohio. are people in short sleeves in the first week of november?

>> it's borderline too hot to be wearing a blazer right now. >> jesse kirsch enjoying his time in the sunshine. former president trump failed to turn over documents in the january 6th committee. what happens if he doesn't meet their new deadline. and how the president is reshaping the final hours of the midterms while teasing ahead to 2024. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on msnbc. ng reports" only on msnbc this guy loves a great offer. so let's see some hustle! my father didn't know his dad. she knew that i always want to know more about my family history. with ancestry i dug and dug until i found some information. i was able to find out more than just a name. and then you add it to the tree. i found ship manifests. birth certificate. wow. look at your dad. i love it so much to know where my father work, where he grew up? it's like you discover a new family member.

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committee that donald trump plans to comply and then what's next? >> chris, if they have evidence, they're not sharing it. the committee put out a statement last friday evening saying they had some kind of correspondence from trump attorneys about their subpoena and they were willing to extend for documents to be turned over to the end of this week. by the end of this week, we are likely to know who is going to be controlling the house of representatives in the next congress. and if it's republicans, that's a pretty clear signal to trump that he can wait this thing out. it has long been the way mr. trump, both during his public career and prior, liked to deal with legal matters. and we might see that be the case here. not much pressure on him to comply. the committee has only one tool and that is to hold someone in contempt. they say they have engaged with him. it weakens their contempt case. the strongest one with steve bannon who blew off the

committee entirely might make it challenging to pursue that legal remedy early on. if they are hoping to get anything from the president in the time remaining to them. >> garrett, thank you for that. well, could a legal strategy include running again? even though if he's not on the ballot, trump is already making 2022 about 2024. in pennsylvania, trump seemed to be stopping himself short by saying the focus should be on the actual candidates running, oz and mastriano because, quote, we have to win. >> we're going to take back america. we're going to take it back. and in 2024, most importantly we are going to take back our magnificent, oh, it's so beautiful white house. we're going to take it back. and you're going to be hearing about it very soon. very, very, very soon. >> very, very, very soon.

three verys there, peter baker. msnbc political analyst. i mean, are you hearing that trump is what he sounds like in that clip, itching to start this next run? and how could what happens tomorrow factor into the timing here? >> there's a lot of buzz that the trump camp is putting out. they're going to announce next week. there is some speculation he could announce tonight at a rally. he tries to keep people guessing. if he does announce tonight or in the days to come, clearly that's a way of getting ahead of any potential prosecution, whether that's the intent on the timing or not, certainly the impact would be to complicate things for merrick garland department of justice, if they're planning to take legal action against him. he is not only a former president but then an active presidential candidate at that point. there's obviously a whole nother set of factors that go into

that, not wanting to appear partisan, not wanting to appear political. whether they might appoint a special counsel to take that away from the department directly. you're right. they are not unrelated at this point. >> and at a rally yesterday for senator marco rubio in florida, trump talked about nancy pelosi. and i want to play that. >> we're going to end crazy tphoepbs pelosi's political career once and for all. once and for all. >> crazy nancy pelosi. by the way, how's she doing lately? how's she's doing? >> that comes in the horrific attack on her husband paul. ahead of the midterms, do comments serve as a cautionary reminder to voters? do they make republicans nervous about his return? what are you hearing? >> well, you know, obviously he has not been one of the republicans who has reached out and said any kind of indulgences for the pelosi family given the

attack on paul police y. in fact, he has done the opposite, spread unfounded conspiracy theories. and so it obviously goes over well with some of the people, supporters who think that kind of approach is, you know, acceptable. but, you know, basically i think it does generate some consternation on the democratic side. the more he is part of tonight's conversation, tomorrow's election the better they will do or minimize the losses of what they are expecting. >> one of the many things we know about donald trump is he loves his nicknames. he debuted a new one for his potential challenger ron desantis calling him ropb desanctimonious after he released a 96-second video which is aimed at infusing his candidacy with the sense of the divine and invokes god 10 times. what do you see in this as a

potentially preview. >> it seems to signal he does intend to run. you wouldn't want to trash the other person if you weren't going to run. instead, he is anticipating a primary contest with desantis. he may not run if donald trump was running. ron desantis is seen as the strongest potential other than trump right now. he has trump qualities without the baggage. same cultural issues, same politically incorrect, if you will, challenges to woke america as he might put it. without the same sort of baggage that donald trump brings to the table. he is trying to get a preemptive strike here to start tearing down a potential challenger. >> peter baker, always great to have you on the program. thank you so much. and speaking of florida, right now the state's east coast is under a hurricane watch as sub tropical storm nicole approaches with maximum

sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. sandbags are already being put out to reduce flooding. the storm has the potential to reach hurricane strength by wednesday night. that's when it is forecast to hit the coast. next, a provocative new ad that could be among the final things before voters head to the polls here in texas. >> remember when we passed open carry. people said it would be the ok corral. none of that happened. >> live in texas where a former president not named obama is making a final pitch to voters in tight historically blue house races. you're watching "chris jansing reports" only on tphpbs. msnbc. msnbc.

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this week is your chance to try any subway footlong for free. like the subway series menu. just buy any footlong in the app, and get one free. free monsters, free bosses, any footlong for free! this guy loves a great offer. so let's see some hustle! the race for governor in texas. a closing argument is all about guns and the deadly school shooting in uvalde. here it is. >> we passed open carry, campus carry, people say it is going to be the okay corral. none of that happened. i don't think it is going to be any bad side effect to it. >> there's a school shooting. >> and i feel pretty good about it passing. >> i'm in classroom 112. please hurry. there's a lot of dead bodies.

>> nbc's priscilla thompson is covering that race in texas for us. also with us, former secretary of housing and urban development julian castro who served as mayor of san antonio and afternoon msnbc political analyst. i think now, it is roughly 24 hours now that the ad has been out and on the ground in texas, are you getting any reaction? and is there the hope that there are people out there who might be moved by this? >> i think that's certainly the hope, chris. this ad is thrusting the horror of that day back into the spotlight. but going a step further and placing the blame squarely on the shoulders of governor greg abbott. the question, to your point, is will that move the needle so close to election day? i will tell you i've already been hearing from democrats at events like the one we were at today about the need for changes to gun laws, and those democrats have also been hearing directly from the families of some of

these uvalde victims on the campaign trail over the past several weeks. in fact, here today, the parents of lexi rubio, one of the victims, meeting with president bill clinton, as he was speaking with congressman henry quellar and fighting for change, and the real question will this move republican voters who turn out more on election day than they do in the early voting period, and having spoken to republican voters across this state, what i hear from them is that yes, governor abbott has failed in some areas, particularly in his response to uvalde, but they don't feel like a change to the gun laws is the correct answer, and they do feel like governor abbott has done a lot of good things for the state, like his position on immigration and the things that he's done at the border and other things that he has done to create jobs here and help the economy. and they say that those are the issues that are most on their

mind as they're heading to the polls. so it will be interesting to see if this sort of last-minute ad has any impact. i will tell you, all of the democrats i've spoken to have already voted, and the republican voters don't seem to be particularly moved on that issue. chris? >> secretary castro, i wonder what your depth tells you on this. there was a recent poll that shows that 3% of americans saw guns at the number one issue. but a "the wall street journal" report, it is in texas, the economy and abortion and guns top of mind. and you guys have had uvalde and the walmart shooting in el paso, the church shooting in sutherland springs. what's your sense of this and whether or not this is an issue that could really help beto, as this race comes to a gross? >> well, my sense is that the issue of guns is going to play a bigger role in how people vote in texas than probably in other states because of what happened in uvalde in may. it was an event that just shocked the conscience, chris, and especially, as you said,

coming after what happened a couple of years ago in el paso, and santa fe, i think this ad no question is very difficult to listen to, very brutal, but also is accurate and uses the voice of a young student, a young girl who went through the events there, in ufbz uvalde last may, so i think this is the kind of ad that reminds voters what is at stake. midterms are, about anything, are getting people concerned, the same way you are, about issues and getting the base out to vote, and from that perspective, i think this is the kind of situation that could remind voters why they need to show up to the polls and actually vote. >> we saw this from priscilla, former president bill clinton is in texas, going to some border towns where three democrats are running in the traditionally democratic area, but the texas tribune puts it this way. they're in the fight of their political lives. what's going on there, on the border, and could there be a gop

sweep? >> there are two things here. first, it's hard to make an apples to apples comparison on these congressional districts, because they have gotten re-drawn. and so for instance, the 15th congressional district, where president clinton is going to be today, where the democrat michelle was going up against the republican monica de la kruz. that was a trump plus three district and that wasn't the case before. it was more democratic. however, it is also true that we saw in the 2020 election, some of these counties shift over toward the republicans. they have been trying to capitalize on that. they have invested more than ever. they recruited candidates that are sharper candidates than before. we have great candidates, also, democrats have great candidates on that side, but there's no question that it is going to be closer than democrats have been used to. and it wouldn't surprise me if republicans come away here with at least one victory down there. >> it is going to to be interested.

watch texas. thank you. that's going to do it for us this hour. make sure to join us for "chris jansing reports" every weekday, 1:00 eastern, right here on msnbc. "katy tur reports" starts next. a pfizer vaccine! so am i. because i'm at risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. i'm asking about prevnar 20® because there's a chance pneumococcal pneumonia could put me in the hospital. if you're 19 or older, with certain chronic conditions like copd, asthma, diabetes, or heart disease or are 65 or older, you may be at increased risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. prevnar 20® is approved in adults to help prevent infections from 20 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia. in just one dose. don't get prevnar 20® if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients. adults with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine. the most common side effects were pain and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, fatigue, headache, and joint pain. i want to be able to keep my plans. that's why i chose to get vaccinated with prevnar 20®.

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