you all ready to close this thing out? do you realize our state's doing good because we have been saying no to stacey abrams. >> are you ready to win this election? are you ready to win the future for our children? are you ready to push us right on over the finish line so we can do this for six more years? >> i'm not that politician. i can tell you that. i don't look like one, i don't talk like one, god prepare me for a moment like this. >> new yorkers from all walks of life are uniting as new yorkers to take back our streets, to take back our subways. people have said enough. >> today we stand united as one voice, and i feel the power of that voice ripple from here all across the state of new york. united behind our candidacy, and i could not be prouder to be your governor.

>> we have a movement, guys. this is a movement. it's not a campaign. it's a movement of patriotic arizonians who are sick of the crap, right. >> there are too many extreme positions in washington. too much out there pulling us away from where the real answers lie. i will bring balance to washington, but john fetterman, he'll bring more extreme. >> and every day i feel better and better. by january, i'll be even better. but dr. oz will still be a fraud. >> we're going to have factories and jobs in america again. we're going to secure our border again. we'll put criminals in jail again. prosecutors will prosecute again. things will be affordable again. we'll save the greatest country in the history of the world. >> regardless of who you are, the color of your skin, where you might live, how much money you might have, your sexual

orientation, sexual identity, our religion will have an opportunity to succeed. >> and that is just some of what we heard last night from the most watched candidates as they delivered their closing messages. today is the day when voters decide the future of this country. at stake -- >> for the next two years. >> at stage, the balance of power in washington and in states that could determine the outcome of future elections. the biden agenda is also on the line, and as democrats have been reminding us, democracy itself. here's the lay of the land. first, the house democrats have a 220-212 seat advantage with three vacancies, two on the left and one on the right. republicans need a net gain of five seats to take control of the lower chamber. that's the smallest number of seats the party out of power has needed to flip the house in 90 years. gop redistricting has played a role in that. now, the senate, as we all know,

it's now a 50/50 split. meaning republicans need to gain just one seat to take control of the upper chamber. we are watching the senate races in nine battleground states with particular focus on arizona, georgia, nevada, new hampshire, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. and now to the 36 governors races. many in presidential battlegrounds, as we saw in 2020, these races matter for the certification of the electoral college results. right now, republicans hold 28 governorships, democrats, 22. more than 44 million americans have already cast a ballot, either by mail or in person. outpacing the 2018 midterms by more than 5 million votes. polls in new york are open right now. polls in ohio open in a half hour, and a slew of others open at the top of the next hour

including many battleground states. good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it is tuesday, november 8th, election day, along with joe, willie and me, we have former chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele is with us, former chief of staff to the dccc adrienne elrod, and ceo of the messina group, jim messina is back with us. he served as white house deputy chief of staff to president obama and ran his 2012 reelection campaign. and the cofounder of "axios," mike allen is here on this election day. >> there is so much to talk about. >> we've got four hours. >> thank god. i think we're going to need a bigger boat on this one, willie. willie, for me, this is turning into one of the most fascinating midterm elections i've ever seen and participated in. because this should be a massive

republican victory tonight. probably will be. you look at just history alone. the tide of history. i see no way that democrats would hold on to the house. that said, the polls are breaking in all different ways. i saw a group of new polls last night with massive sample sizes, a bipartisan poll, and i mean, the senate races in these swing states are breaking different ways. i spoke to people in florida who are always right. they say expect a massive republican win in florida. ron desantis is going to break every record in the book. i talked to democrats in pennsylvania. they were not under their bed shaking like they usually are. there was no bedwetting. there was no weeping. >> okay. >> they're feeling good about fetterman.

they're of course feeling great about shapiro. we may have an election where republicans sweep florida, democrats sweep pennsylvania. maybe in wisconsin a split. i mean, it's breaking all of these different ways, and it's just kind of exciting going in the round, and hearing all of those people talking, and fetterman, fetterman was surrounding great. >> he did. he sounded strong. >> and paraphrasing winston churchill. i'm getting better and better. and as i get better, you know, i'll be getting better. dr. oz, he'll still be crazy. yes, ma'am, i'm drunk, but you're ugly. i'm sober, but you're still ugly. >> terrible. >> it was horrible, how could he say that. this whole thing about democracy is on the line, and everything hinges on this one election. i do totally get that sentiment. but you really need to go race by race, and you look at, for

instance, kari lake, i think that is someone who poses a grave threat to american democracy. i just do. when you look at the fact that she's an election denier. you look at her skill set, you look at the fact republicans are already talking about her being trump's vice president pick. she seems willing to do anything, say anything. you know, i have a friend that was running in the primary. she said he was on the side of pedophiles because he wouldn't put cameras in every classroom across the state of arizona. this is a woman willing to do anything. there's an example, yes, where i do believe this would be a grave risk to democracy in arizona. other races where the stakes just aren't quite that high. and so you look at georgia, you have two people that stood up to donald trump, and said, no, we're not going to let you steal elections. republicans have done that across the country as well. >> there are about 300 election deniers on the ballot today. if those people win, it could

change the way we run elections. it could change the way we respect the outcomes of elections. that's all very real. the question is that in the mind of a voter going to the booth or 8% inflation and gas and groceries and all the things we talk about this morning. mika laid out well the splits in the house and senate. republicans only need to pick up five in the house to control the house, only need to pick up one in the senate. historically for a little bit of perspective, since 1934, fdr's first midterm, the out party has picked up 28 house seats and four senate seats. you put that historical trend together with a president polling in the low to mid-40s and 8% inflation, it should be a big night. >> a massive republican night. >> landslide. should be huge. >> and maybe it will be in the house, but the democrats, as you say, looking at pennsylvania, they're looking at georgia. they hope they hold on to new hampshire. they better. that's one we'll be watching early. they hope and they believe some of them that they will, in fact,

be able by the skin of their teeth to hold on to the senate. >> and they're all so tight. a lot of senate races, close races in the swing states are all so tight that, you know, you felt 2010 coming. i felt 2010. we knew that was going to be a massive republican year. same thing with 94. i mean, you know, we knew that was going to be a big year. man, there are so many cross currents this year. it is crazy. i mean, the wear of the undertow and the rip tides. you don't know where it's going to take us tonight, and all of this fear and loathing, and all of these people saying, oh, it proves that so and so ran a bad campaign here. we still don't know. people are going to start voting, you know, in person in an hour. >> it's crazy. i mean, you look at this. the question is whether it's

2010, a red wave, slaughter everywhere or 2018 where the democrats take the senate or the house, but republicans pick up seats in the senate. it feels like that to me. we just have never seen this many senate races sitting on the precipice. i was looking last night, seven or eight senate races are in the margin of error. >> can i ask, would you be shocked if the republican or the democrat won nevada, won arizona, won georgia, won pennsylvania, won new hampshire, won even -- even wisconsin. you know, ron johnson -- >> north carolina. >> north carolina. ron johnson has been ahead in a lot of polls. man, i keep seeing these barns where he's well within the margin of errors. we've got six or seven races, if you told me tomorrow that any of those candidates won, i would not be surprised at all. it's all within the margin of error. >> it's true, and these polls

are mostly garbage as you and i discussed in the past. we don't know who has already voted. we have had 44 million people vote. republicans are now in most states saying don't vote until election day. you can't really figure out what's in the bag, what's not in the bag. early numbers, allen was talking about this earlier. earlier numbers are going to look like republicans have a big night. we need to take a deep breath. i want to look at the numbers in new hampshire. if the democrats lose the senate race in new hampshire, they're screwed, and it's going to be a horrible night. she holds on, and they look good, and it's not as close as people fear. then you start to see a little momentum, and we start looking at can the democrats win pennsylvania, if they can, they can hold the senate, and if we go to the west, everything gets decided in the west as always. >> it is election day. that means one thing. steve kornacki is at the big board beginning what's going to be a long day, a long night, perhaps a long several days. steve, good morning, let's get you started here on "morning joe." what are you looking at to start

the day? >> you're talking about, i think, the battle for the senate, obviously kind of the feature story here, the 50/50 split and i think we have talked about this a lot. republicans needing the net gain of one seat. their four best possibilities here, nevada, arizona, georgia, and then kind of a late bloomer for them, new hampshire. new hampshire in and of itself, a really interesting story because republicans tried and they kept missing nationally to recruit who they thought would be top tier candidates into this race. ended up getting don bolduc as a primary, and most republicans thought that was it for new hampshire, wouldn't have a chance there. but in the final stretch of the race, there's all sorts of signs new hampshire has become a top target for republicans as well. they're trying to get a net gain of one. those are the four best possibilities on the board in terms of flipping blue seats. all underscores the central importance that pennsylvania to the math of the senate because they're in pennsylvania, that is democrats' best single pickup

opportunity. it has been all year. joe biden won the state back in 2020. fetterman, very close as you say coming into today but for months before the home stretch this campaign, fetterman enjoyed some comfortable leads in the polls there. you've got the possibility of democrats, and i think the necessity for democrats of flipping pennsylvania. if they do flip pennsylvania, it means they could absorb a loss in one of those blue states. and they could still end up back at 50/50, and of course in one of the other possibilities tonight, you know, is that let's say democrats were to pick up pennsylvania. let's say republicans, let's use new hampshire for the heck of it here, republicans were to get a gain there. everything else ends up kind of holding form, staying the same. you've also got the wild card of georgia. you have the possibility of a runoff. if no one gets to 50% in georgia, something like what happens last night. end with 50 republican seats. 49 democratic seats, and one

uncalled race. that race would be georgia. georgia would go to a runoff. the runoff would be held on december 6th and once again as was the case two years ago, we will be waiting for a month to find out who controls the u.s. senate, all based on a georgia runoff. >> and by the way, if you had told democrats a year ago, here's the deal. inflation is going to be about like 8%, right, and joe biden's approval ratings are going to be somewhere between 39 and 44, and historically you should lose on average, 25, 30, probably 40 seats and get wiped out in the senate, if you told democrats that you could have the computer who wears tennis shoes and khakis on election morning to say, you know, we may have to wait until december to see who controls the senate, do you know a democrat in washington, d.c. that wouldn't say, i'll take

it's amazing, actually. >> it is absolutely amazing because you laid out sort of all the circumstances that we're dealing with, and of course historically the party in power does not always have a good midterm cycle. the fact that we could hold on to the senate, so neck in neck in some of the really close states that some of the states that trump won in 2016 and even in 2020, it is a very good situation for democrats to be in. and look, i'm glad we're all talking about the fact that we may not know a lot of results tonight. you know, new hampshire, for example, most people vote the day of in new hampshire so i think we'll know new hampshire, but pennsylvania may take a couple of days. you know, arizona may take a couple of days. we have to let every single vote count. it's so close. >> arizona because they count one vote. go out and have a ham sandwich, come back, have another one. >> get a manicure. >> arizona and nevada seriously, i don't know what happens in those offices after election

day, but it's always taken forever for them to count votes. >> and when elections are this close, we have to have every vote in to know where it stands. sometimes it takes absentee ballots a while to come in. as jim mentioned earlier, a lot of states it's going to look good for republicans early on because they vote on election day, but early votes and absentees are counted when the polls close. over the course of tonight into tomorrow, i think we'll see the democrats pick up more steam. >> and by the way, the republicans, their efforts to steal the election in 2020, it was very calculated. you remember we had steve bannon saying we're just going to declare victory at 10:00 or 11:00 at night. well, in the months preceding that statement, there were people that were asking republican legislatures in michigan and wisconsin and in pennsylvania to count their votes the way ron desantis's

florida counts their votes. when you get the early votes count them. that way polls open at 7:00 or 8:00, all of those are tallied up just like that, and you know by 10:00 who won the election. right. so when you hear republicans at 10:00 or 11:00 going, all right, let's just stop counting the votes, i won. when you hear that, understand this is all very calculated. they're doing this for a reason because they understand republicans do well day of. and it's the early votes, right, it's the early votes where the democrats catch up. and look, again, mike allen, it's all very calculated. they knew this was going to be the reality in 2020. and i just heard you talking on "way too early" with jonathan lemire about how this is going to come down tonight, and i want everybody to listen to this,

okay. because let's limit the fear and loathing, the weeping and the gnashing of teeth, let's limit that tonight at 8:00, 9:00, and 10:00 at night pause it's going to come in hard for republicans at first, and then we're going to see if democrats have enough early votes to catch up and win. so break this down for us. >> yeah, joe, that's exactly right. now the weeping and gnashing of the teeth may come in the morning, but democratic campaigns are saying not so fast. so tonight, across the map, we were having warnings yesterday by democratic campaigns, campaign committees saying watch out for republicans prematurely declaring victory. look for a possible rerun of the red mirage from 2020, and, joe, your voters will remember the red mirage of 2020 where democrats warned exactly what you're talking about that on

election night, republican votes may be heavier. by the time mail-in votes where democrats are heavier, the result will change, and of course we saw that. we saw president biden becoming president biden on saturday. so democrats yesterday warning of a red mirage too. and that is that tonight because of the mechanics of how votes are counted, republicans may look like they're doing better than they're doing. so this is part of the new attention to the mechanics of vote counting in these briefings. some of them for journalists, some of them off the record, some for donors and supporters, talking very granularly in a way we never have about the time line of vote counting. the mechanics of vote counting with democrats using it to make the preemptive case that this may take a while. >> thank you so much for being with us. could you just give us a happy election day. just send us on our way.

>> he only does that on fridays. >> no, he doesn't, watch this. >> i do it when joe says it, and happy election day, thank you for your coverage. >> i feel so much better now, thank you, mike allen. appreciate it. >> he takes requests. >> he takes requests, too. so willie, this red mirage happens, 2018, most people watching, republicans are going to hold on to the house. suddenly, in virginia, states start moving democratic, in california over the next weeks, they start moving. there was actually a red mirage early in 2018. democrats ended up at 44 seats or something in 2018, 40 seats in 2018. so it always starts low for democrats. by the way, it may remain slow. i'm not cheer leading anything.

i'm just saying let's not allow people who hate american democracy to hijack the narrative tonight. >> malicious actors saying if it's not all there at 9:00, 10:00, you know something is up. they're going back to 2020, which we know is garbage. we have already litigated all of that. michael steele, you're always a good truth teller for us. expectations for tonight for democrats, some of the polls look good in senate races, what do you see out here. >> i promised joe and mika, no bathroom references today. we'll be good. >> that was something. >> a couple of things, one, this ain't 2010. this is nowhere near 2020. this is not 2018. this cycle is unlike any that we've seen in modern history for a number of reasons. one, you have dynamics at play as joe and mika mentioned, people trying to undermine the corner stone of our democracy,

which is elections. so that is much more active. much more coordinated and it's going to play itself out in a number of ways. the critical question for me in watching everything tonight is how are voters responding to this idea of democracy. as our friend here, our polling at nbc is showing, as of yesterday, the number one thing driving voters right now is not the economy. it's democracy. and imagine where we were six weeks ago when it was the reverse. something's happened. something's happened in that time where voters are looking at the election slightly differently than we may think. it's not portending a wave of any type. it's just saying voters have begun to settle on the democracy question in a way they hadn't weeks in advance of today. so i'm watching to see where that lands us. i get the parallels and everyone saying, you know, the wave and the history and all of this. but that was conventional. that was conventional politics

playing itself out. so yeah, there were historic trend lines that mattered. we have blown so far past that at this point where i don't think you give it the same level of weight. >> right. >> and you can't because when you look at some of these races, you see these other factors shaping the way voters are looking at them. the reason kari lake is doing kari lake is because she looks good. she sounds good. they're looking past what she's saying. herschel walker, you have these dynamics that voters are kind of weighing differently than they would have in other elections where they would have been written off. >> same dynamics as trump. >> you're too anti-democratic, i don't know what you are. and i'm not voting for you. that's not necessarily what we're seeing. >> steve kornacki, from this conversation, jump off on that, if you could, but i'm also interested in early voting, and any bellwether states and districts. >> a couple of things to keep in mind. first of all, i think that the vote counting and vote reporting is going to be different tonight

than we saw in 2020 for a couple of reasons in a couple of key states to keep in mind. mail voting, while much more prevalent in 2022 than it was in previous midterms i don't think is going to be as prevalent as it was in 2020, and it's what really slowed down some of the counts in places like pennsylvania last time around. i think there's going to be a little bit more efficiency at counting the votes. there may be a stark divide between the early and the same day vote, and there's also been procedural changes. the way i see the night playing out. first of all, as you mentioned, florida is probably the most efficient big state at counting its vote. 30 minutes of poll closing time, every county reports a combination of its early and mail vote. the early vote in florida isn't that democratic. it's just the mail vote. the combo is 2/3 of the vote in every county. it's going to be more democratic than the same day vote. you'll see in the first 30 minutes in every big county in florida, we're talking by a

margin of five points here or so, democrats will put up the best numbers, and the same day, by 11:00, we'll have florida. some key questions in florida, you know, republicans in miami-dade county, they saved what was a 30-point clinton win down to single digits in 2020. can desantis outright win miami-dade. 70% plus. there are a number of congressional seats in florida. an aggressive redraw of the map in that state by governor ron desantis and republicans. there are a number of house races that you could get a sense early on. right there are republicans on the way to get five seats. another key change is north of florida in georgia, and under the new voting law that they have in georgia, it's now -- the secretary of state's office has been encouraging counties to pretabulate. that's the key here, to pre-tabulate the early and the mail vote. they can do this as long as it's in a separate area at these facilities and to give them the capability, potentially, if they do this to release the

combination of the mail and the early vote, just as they do in florida, by like 7:15 eastern. so there's indications from counties in georgia, especially big democratic counties that this is what they're going to be doing tonight. you hear a lot of plans from election officials, you'll see if they follow through. there's the potential for democrats to be putting up very big early numbers in georgia. then you get the same day voting and it becomes a question of can the democrats chip away at that. the same is true in north carolina and ohio. these are 7:30 poll closing times. you're going to get first the early mail, some combination thereof which should be more democratic friendly. you'll start getting in the same day vote. what you're talking about in terms of the potential for republicans to bank an early lead. pennsylvania is a wild card. we definitely saw that in 2020. there are a few changes in pennsylvania here in terms of i think there's questions about whether the two big counties in

the state allegheny and philadelphia, whether they are going to pre-process. i should say process an election day, a big batch of mail votes that they can release right away at the start of the night. a if they do that this year as opposed to 2020, the early count in pennsylvania may look different. they are going to struggle to get the mail vote counted out. they have incentivized the counties financially to stay open all night tonight counting the ballots, and just about every county has taken the money. what we didn't have in 2020, a lot of them turned the lights off at midnight on election night. it could take until tomorrow, wednesday, thursday, pennsylvania, but it may be quicker in pennsylvania. the two that i do think we are going to be waiting for a long time on are arizona and nevada. >> why do you do this to us. >> what you're going to get is 10:00 p.m. eastern, you're going to get the bulk of all the vote that came in until a couple of days ago.

>> why don't they work in arizona after the election. >> the very particular procedure is there's three things that happen in arizona. they take all the mail ballots that came in as of a couple of days ago. the polls close at 9:00 eastern. they have an interesting tradition, in an hour. >> they watch all harry potter votes. >> they do not release a single vote. 10 eastern, turn your eyes to arizona because at 10:05, suddenly about 2/3 of the vote in the state is reported out, and it is essentially all of the mail vote that came in until about two days ago. then the next couple of hours, they count the vote cast same day. it's a smaller share. that's the bulk of the vote in arizona, and then we wit and basically what you get is the late early vote. the mail volt that was dropped off sunday, monday, day of, that sort of thing, you'll get nightly updates and if it's a close race, we're talking inside

of two, one point, it takes a week in arizona. >> it's 14 votes a night. exactly. >> it sounds painful. >> the official newspaper of "morning joe," the ""new york post and they're undecided on the new york governor's race to save our state. we've got two pretty incredible races, i think in places you wouldn't expect. one is new york state and the other is the l.a. mayor's race. you have a republican who switched late to being a democrat. and the question is does zeldin make all the dreams of the "new york post" headliners come true or does hochul hold on. >> here's the interesting thing. zeldin can be a hero to national republicans even if he loses the governor's race and i say that because if he makes it

competitive, let's say zeldin falls three, four points short of kathy hochul. if zeldin is doing that, he is necessarily going to be running up massive margins on long island, and up state. new york and california are like the mother load of competitive congressional districts and new york is filled with congressional districts that republicans are trying to flip from democrats. if zeldin is competitive tonight, there's the first, second district in eastern long island that are republican. republicans are eyeing the third and fourth district to get closer to new york city that voted by biden by 8 points, 12 points. if zeldin is having a monster night on long island, those two could be flipable for republicans, and sean patrick maloney, he's worried about a strong showing. his district would be the kind of district that would vote for zeldin, even if zeldin is falling short by the 17th, 18th,

19th district, democratic seats could go just if zeldin makes it a game in new york. if he wins, personally he's going to be happy and republicans in new york are going to be thrilled and the "new york post" it sounds like will be quite happy too. if it's only a three or four point race and he falls short, he could potentially on the strength of where he's getting the votes, that could be five republican house seat gains from new york state. what do republicans need to take the house. five. >> interesting. >> nbc's steve kornacki, you're the best. thank you very much. >> just absolutely amazing. before we go, i wanted to talk about voters. people who watch a show for four hours, they may be a little more into the weeds like us about politics than the actual people that go and vote and i observe that. first time i ran, i was just watching people going to vote. i started shaking violently five minutes later, and just drove off and made me so nervous, you

know. just a little bit. but we talk about the economy. it's the economy, stupid. well, in 1994 when i won, it wasn't the economy, stupid, the economy was doing pretty well. it was a collection of things. people thought bill clinton and the democrats had gone too far left. you can say the same thing in 2010, but so many times people go into a voting booth, and they're not going in there thinking like us, oh, interest rates are here. such and such. that's what makes this year so fascinating. you do have 50-year right for women to make decisions about their own body taken away. that may not be showing up in the polls. that's in the back of people's minds, right, and uvalde, people are seeing this on tv, and maybe that's not the topic. it's in the back of their mind. it builds up. you have people denying democracy, saying basically they're not going to accept

madisonian democracy, that's in the back of their mind. on the other side, you have voters looking at issues other than the economy. you know, on the other issue, they believe progressives have gone too far. i have surprised myself in the past when i have gone into a voting booth, thinking i was going to vote a certain way. in 2006 i was angry at bush and the republicans, i voted straight democratic ticket. 2014, i was angry with democrats in the state of connecticut who were wrecking this state. i voted a straight republican ticket. i didn't know that until i went in there. and sometimes i walked out of a voting booth going, huh, that's interesting. okay. but that's how americans go in, and sometimes they're not even sure. that's why, you know, we can't

predict based on the economy. it's an entire collection. at the end of the day people go, who's going to represent me the best. who's going it take care of my family the best. they vote that way and come out, and you have a remarkable thing called democracy and we get surprised more often than not. don't we? >> we really do, and so numbers matter here. to your point about who these voters are, and exactly right, they're not focused on this. the average swing voter thinks about politics four minutes a week, has 2.6 jobs, has kids worrying about what to do, you know, i think michael had an interesting point about what the voters think about. i've always been an economic guy, that wins elections. bill clinton would call me at 2:00 in the morning once a month to say jimmy, all elections, always an economic referendum. that was true then. it's not now.

democrats should get their butts kicked but they're not because other issues are starting to really matter. the two times where willie's numbers have been run since world war ii, 1998 and 2002, the elections were nationalized. democrats are hoping either democracy or abortion nationalizes these elections. this democracy thing is interesting. the turnout looks massive for a midterm, and both parties are trying to figure out what that means, who are these people, and i think, joe, they're people you're talking about, they get the ballot, walk in and say i'm not sure what i'm going to do. something in the back of my mind makes me think i'm going to do x. it's why the polls are garbage. it's why i'm going to turn off my phone until 11:00 eastern. so my mom doesn't blow it up for the first three hours, losing her mind, and i think that all of this is setting up to be a crazy weird election. >> and by the way, and please, i

don't say this to shock people, but you never know why people are going to vote. it may be the uvalde shooting. it may be abortion. it may be -- >> inflation. >> the swimmer at penn, the trans swimmer at penn, which democrats don't talk about but republicans are littering mailboxes across america with fires on it. you never know why people are going to vote. it's definitely going to be crime in places, even though progressives have said, oh, but the data says. but you never know what it's going to be. i do want to say one other thing to do about nobody knowing anything. i'm glad you brought up 1998. remember 1998 driving around my district, campaigning, and i heard rush limbaugh howling, and he was laughing at the democrats, these democrats,

they're already circling the wagons. because the newspapers were filled with op-eds saying we're going to lose badly in '98 because we've allowed this guy, bill clinton to put a moral stain on our party. and we have turned over. congress is going to wipe us out. all the polls were saying democrats were going to get wiped out, and republicans were gleeful saying this is what you deserve. three days later, we ran newt gingrich out of town because democrats had a glorious night in 1998. you never know what's going to happen. you just never know, do you? >> with all of these races, that's exactly right. we have so many close races and you just can't figure out who's coming, what will the turnout is going to be. what they're motivated by, and republicans have told their voters, don't vote until election day. that's a risky strategy.

>> by the way, a snowstorm is coming into nevada. >> see, that's terrifying. can nevada and arizona just count the votes, joe. in vegas, they go out, go to a club, do some partying, gamble on the elections and two days later, they call us. >> and my question is, michael steele, we can say it. there were people that were begging you to run for governor in maryland. >> yes. >> begging you. and you told them i can't do it, i think the party has moved too far right. >> a shift. >> and too pro-trump, and a candidate like me wouldn't win, so guess what, how big is wes going to win. we love wes. wes is a great friend of ours. >> you're looking at a 30 point drumming. >> what a dumb decision, and republicans did the same thing in pennsylvania. >> if cox gets between 32 and

35. i mean trump in the last election in '20 got 32% of the vote. >> jim messina, thank you so much for being on this morning. we've got so much more to get to on this election day including pennsylvania senate nominee dr. oz making a play for bipartisanship that some critics are not buying. plus, arizona, gubernatorial candidate kari lake pushing more false claims of a rigged election. and donald trump, focusing more on himself. >> really? >> than ohio is that the race. >> i don't believe that. >> i'm so shocked that he started thinking about announcing his run for president. >> he made a stop in dayton and talked about trump. also ahead this morning, house speaker nancy pelosi makes a direct comparison between the brutal attack on her husband and january 6th. >> for good reason. >> we'll play for you her new remarks. plus, one of our next guests joins us with what he calls a

quote plea for sanity within the gop. former cia officer mark polly -- will be here to explain that. we'll be right back. - will be h that we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪

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get double rewards points this fall. book now at bestwestern.com. very big announcement on tuesday, november 15th, at mar-a-lago in palm beach, florida.

we want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow. you understand that, j.d. >> in-house music. we didn't add that music. >> that's so slocky. it's like 8th grade student government. hey, i'm going to play some music, and it's going to make me sound bigger. i mean, what is that, is that qanon music. >> some have said it's meant to replicate that music. that was president trump during a final campaign stop in dayton, ohio, republican senate candidate j.d. vance who donald trump has humiliated time and time again, and reminded voters, j.d. came and begged me for support. forgive the language, said he's kissed my ass. that's trump's language.

>> that's somebody you want fighting for you in washington. >> but you know what it, part of this announcement is governor desantis in florida is going to have a big night tonight. >> thanks, desantis. >> by all numbers, we'll let the voters decide. he is the rising star in the party without question. >> yeah. >> and donald trump sees that on his flank. >> i would say he's not the rising star in the party. he is the star in the party. he's eclipsed trump in a way that has trump right now sitting on that golden toilet banging his head up against the wall. >> you said you weren't going to do that. the toilet talk. >> it's so funny, i got off the phone with my source in florida who the guy is maddeningly accurate. >> and what did he say? >> he has been for 20 years. he said it's going to be a historic win by desantis, he

could win by 20 points. he's going to win hispanics statewide. he's going to win miami-dade county. it is going to be one of the most historic wins not just in florida but for any governor. he's raised more money than any governor. i hear all of this. i'm like, well, that's interesting. i hang up the phone, and i get about 12 phone calls. hey, what have you heard? i hear trump's running. everybody around him said they're trying to talk him out of running, but trump may be running. and i just started laughing because it's so obvious he wants to step on ron desantis's headline. said he's going to have a massive headline, right, and trump, he's going to be in ron's shadow, and he was even angry when ron, you know, had that ad a couple of days ago. >> i am jesus, and i created ron

desantis on the 8th day. it was so awful. it was so offensive. it was so unchrist-like. and yet, it made donald trump so angry. that's why he started calling him ron desanctimonious. >> not his best work there in terms of nicknames, but he did give him a nickname, which is the first step of him going after you. >> it is a little bit clever. >> ron desanctimonious. it got a chuckle out of me. >> but there's no doubt, donald trump is not used to being in anybody's shadow. >> jonathan lemire is here. >> jonathan lemire is here. >> but after tonight, he's going to be in ron desantis's shadow, certainly after the numbers come in. and by the way, republicans are going to win, i'm told, veto proof majorities in the house and senate. democrats, setting your hair on fire.

democrats might have a good night in pennsylvania, so just take a deep breath, take some maalox, call me in the morning. trump is going to have to deal with desantis having a massive historic night. >> people have told me, he's singularly focused on desantis. he's ungrateful. it was trump's endorsement that got him over the finish line. he's upset that desantis would bow out if trump does indeed run for president and trump has been angry, and doesn't like his stage being stepped on particularly that he is now a florida resident like desantis. he has been threatening to declare his candidacy. he thought about doing it over the summer at the height of the mar-a-lago search in that aftermath, he wanted to do it now. he wanted to become the story in the republican party. he wanted to eclipse desantis, and others, and he wanted to be able to take credit if the republicans have a good night tonight. he almost did so at his pennsylvania rally the other day.

yesterday, trump aides called a bunch of reporters saying, hey, you got to watch ohio tonight. it's going to happen tonight. it's going to happen tonight. of course it didn't. other republicans talked trump out of it saying look, just wait a little bit. wait a week. don't step on our night. >> mccarthy, did mccarthy talk him out of it. >> i don't know if mccarthy did. but those close to him did. there was leadership on the hill that said, hold off, don't do it tonight with the thinking being what could be the number one motivator for democrats to turn out today, donald trump declaring his candidacy for president. they got him to hold off a week. >> also at the ohio campaign rally. former president trump mentioned nancy pelosi for the second day in a row. as a reminder, here's what he said on sunday while speaking in miami. >> this was just a group of people where crazy nancy pelosi, by the way, how is she doing lately? how is she doing? and then last night, the former president was talking about -- >> again, we talked about it

yesterday. >> ugly. >> it's just horrific, and hard for me to imagine any of my friends and family members supporting that guy. >> i don't understand christians supporting him. >> that would have a guy, an 82-year-old man getting his brains bashed in and donald trump making light of that. how is she doing? it's a threat, a mob threat, how is your aunt doing. come on. >> so the former president was talking about the murder conviction of an ms 13 gang member when he brought up pelosi again. >> this was an animal. nancy pelosi said please don't call them animals, they're human beings. i said, no they're an animals. i think she's an animal too, if you want to know the truth. they'll say, oh, what a horrible thing he said about nancy. she impeached me twice for nothing. nothing. they'll say, oh, these people are fakers back there.

they'll say what a horrible thing. he called nancy pelosi an animal. >> yeah. it is. >> maybe, don, it is horrible because there have been studies for years since, i'll say it, since the fall of hitler, since the fall of nazi germany that talks about how nazis dehumanized jews by calling them animals and by doing that, let me get the exact language here. it enabled fascists to morally disengage from those they viewed as political enemies thereby justifying acts of violence. look it up. there's been study after study after study. so donald trump jokes about an 82-year-old man getting brutally assaulted. his skull cracked. the crowds cheer. the next night, he calls nancy

pelosi an animal. the crowd cheers. again, people, you know, i know talking about donald trump being a fascist makes some people in polite society uncomfortable. you just look at -- you know, the one thing that held me back from it, willie, before january 6th was the use of violence, right? he used violent imagery, but he never crossed the line like mussolini and used violence against government institutions until january 6th. and he did that. now, again, he's gleeful that somebody that follows him, that wrote in his manifesto, it's all about stolen elections saying to people in the media that deny it was stolen elections should be taken in the street and shot. he's celebrating that fact,

openly celebrating it, and now he's again using a nazi tactic, calling his opponent animal. >> you know, we have a horrific case study in where that leads on january 6th. we have to point out while almost exactly while the former president was calling nancy pelosi an animal, she was doing her first interview on cnn. take politics out of it, anyone with an ounce of humanity, a soul, anybody who was raised well had to be moved by a woman talking about her husband of almost 60 years, an 82-year-old man. what that was like for her to have a knock on her door at 5:30 in the morning in washington saying your husband has just been beaten with a hammer by someone who was saying where's nancy. let's watch a little of nancy pelosi last night on cnn. >> for me this is really the hard part because paul was not the target, and he's the one who's paying the price. we all are but he's the one who's really paying the price. but it really -- it's really sad

because it is a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all the rest of that, which is most unfortunate. it has no place in our democracy. >> president biden drew a line between what happened on january 6th and the attack on your husband. the president said i quote the assailant entered the home asking where's nancy, where's nancy, those were the very same words used by the mob when they stormed the united states capitol on january 6th, do you draw that same line? >> absolutely. there's no question. it's the same thing. copy cat, whatever it happens to be, inflamed by the same misrepresentation. but the fact is right now, it's time for healing. we want the country to heal. this is not a path that we can continue on. i was sleeping in washington, d.c. i had just gotten in the night before from san francisco, and

the -- i hear the doorbell ring and think it's 5 something, i look up, i see it's five, they must be at the wrong apartment. it rings again, and then bang bang bang on the door. so i run to the door. and i'm very scared. i see this capitol police, and they say we have to come in to talk to you, and i'm thinking, my children, my grandchildren. i never thought it would be paul because, you know, i knew he wouldn't be out and about, shall we say. they came in at that time. we didn't even know where he was or what his condition was. we just knew there was an assault on him in our home. >> it's worth watching the entire thing. take politics out of it, disagree on her policy, maybe you don't like her personally. she's a human being whose

husband was nearly murdered inside their home. to joke about it, laugh about it. there has to be a line or we don't have a is society. there has to be a line of violence. >> she talked about healing, but how can there be healing when you only have mitch mcconnell and one or two other republicans coming out condemning this without attaching a joke. or without attaching a campaign punch line. kari lake is out joking about it. donald trump is being thuggish about it. how can there be healing and then, my gosh, she gets this news. she gets on a plane. and by the time she lands, michael steele, the richest man in the world, the man who runs twitter and a bunch of republicans are spreading a lie

that it was -- first of all, the first lie that they were spreading around was that it was -- he was with a prostitute. >> right. >> and then the next lie they spread was he was with a male prostitute, and then the next lie. there were about ten lies, and they actually put it on twitter. >> yep. >> put it on twitter. and that's what -- so nancy pelosi then has to deal with that. how can there be healing when one side is gleefully celebrating this. >> and behaving in an evil way. you listen to what she said about steve scalise. has steve calise come out and said that about paul pelosi? >> in fact, when steve scalise was shot, there was unanimity among democrats and republicans. the leadership from both parties stood together to condemn it. nancy pelosi's voice was as strong as any other voice condemning it. there was no partisan rift.

she didn't look at it through that lens, and here we are today on the heels of the attack on her husband with twitter, the former president, elon musk, all piling on. and the thing that strikes me more than the childish behavior, the anti-democratic behavior, the un-christian behavior of our leaders. >> right. >> is the fact that in that audience people applauded and cheered. so i think at the end of the day, we've got to stop and ask ourself, what kind of people are we really because, remember, our leaders as you well know as an elected official, i know as an elected official, we are an extension of the people we represent in so many ways. and so when the president stand up and says that. that moment that we had with john mccain, with the audience member where he rebuked them in the moment, those are gone. those moments are gone.

>> long gone. >> where do we go now? we're electing these people, standing in the audience, hey, great, thank you, where do we go next. >> steve scalise said that same day, i'm disgusted to hear about the horrific assault on speaker pelosi's husband paul, let's be clear, violence has no place in this country, i am praying for paul pelosi's full recovery. >> on the day of. >> also, you can hear to michael's point, you can hear the shock if you watch the full interview in nancy pelosi's voice, even by today's standards, the jokes, gosh, i didn't know we were going to go that far. i didn't know getting barked in the -- bashed in the head with a hammer, even she was shocked about what happened. >> people have been lying about nancy pelosi, and spreading just the most vile attacks against

nancy pelosi for so long that she's been turned again, again, she's been -- you look at what i just said about how nazis turned people into -- they dehumanize them. they have dehumanized this woman who actually is a woman of great faith. if you don't like that. that tough, i really want to say another word, i'll just say touch luck, because she is, anybody that has talked to her for more than five minutes knows, she's a catholic of deep faith. and a kind woman, you may not like it. you may not like politics. we're supposed to be a nation where jefferson and hamilton can hate each other's politics. right? but she's been dehumanized to such a point. i know you. i know you people. i won't say your names of course. but i know you've dehumanized

nancy pelosi. you're a good person. you live in a good neighborhood. you got a good family. you go to a good church, but you've dehumanized nancy pelosi so much that you can't even feel sympathy, you can't even relate to her having an 82-year-old husband who was beaten up, bashed in the brains, had to be rushed to emergency surgery in the middle of the night. and you have allowed politics to dehumanize her so much that you don't feel any emotion for that. and i just ask that you -- i ask that however you got to that point, if you're christian, just, you know, we should pray about that today. if you're not, that's fine. i hope you can meditate on it. i hope you can think about it. because that's a real sickness,

and that's your sickness. nancy pelosi's not the one who's sick. you're the one who's sick. if you don't feel pain for her and her family. let's bring in right now, former cia officer marc polymeropoulos, he's an nbc news security and intel analyst. he's out with a new piece for nbc news titled "the gop needs a counter radicalization strategy," a perfect time to have this conversation. different degrees, right. they're the people that are ready to have, you know, launch a civil war. and there are people who live quietly in neighbors who, again, have dehumanized their political opponents, and i suspect it's happened on both sides. i'm sure one of ted cruz's family members got attacked, there would be a lot of people ontario left that didn't feel a lot of sympathy for ted cruz's

family as well. this is a problem right now, yes, it's a much larger problem on the right because you would have every democratic leader -- i don't want to bring up his name again, that's not fair there, but any republican, right? and just a lack of humanity, but the difference is that democrats would join hands with republicans and they would mourn the attack against the republican like they did with steve scalise. right now, you have donald trump going around and kari lake going around mocking an 82-year-old man almost being killed by having his skull cracked. >> and getting wild applause. >> and getting wild applause for it. how do we deprogram? why don't you speak to those people who laughed and applauded when donald trump did that?

>> sure, joe, and i think you all hit the nail right in the head. in the opening before, in the sense of there's -- >> i saw you got halfway down that expression, going where do i go. you were in the cul-de-sac, and you had nowhere to go. go ahead. >> so, you know, there's a demonization of political opponents. and it's particularly prevalent on the republican side. you know, there's a normalization of violence and violent rhetoric, and that has to change. you know, michael and i have talked about this on some previous programs that the only change, you know, the change has to come from within the republican party, and you know, in my career at cia, i saw countries that have problems with radicalization. and the change always came from within. and that's really important. you know, we can sit here and talk about this all we want, but until the republican party admits there's a problem, you know, nothing will change, and look what happened last night with donald trump calling nancy

pelosi an animal. i mean, i was horrified. i wrote the piece for nbc, and 24 hours after that i was subject to all of this kind of crazy right wing hate mail and rhetoric. you know, different cable network wrote a piece that i was actually advocating for cia terrorism measures to be used on conservative the. >> that's crazy. >> hold on a second. what cable news network did that? >> it was fox. fox came out with a piece that said i was advocating counter terrorism techniques to be used on conservatives. that's not what i said at all. >> who was the writer at fox news that said that? >> it was on fox digital, and my phone blew up with hate mail which again, goes to show, affirms my point that the republican party is not ready to admit there's a problem. it's okay to admit that because violence is as you said before, against the foundation and principles we grow up with. they're not ready and the last 24 hours have shown it.

certainly donald trump's comments last night. >> and, michael, why aren't they ready? >> joe. >> do they have to lose a couple more elections. what do they have to do? >> i don't know if it's about for the establishment types, the remnants of that, marc and i have talked about, tried to noodle this through. i think we have gone beyond that. this is an infection that has run so deep. it is years of frustration, and anger. it is the remnants of the old southern white male strategy inside the gop that goes back to the early and late 60s. there's a lot of stuff royaling inside here. and the interesting thing for me was to watch how readily the leadership let go of it. let go of control of keeping the party aligned. you're a student of history. you know what happened they rose

their head inside the party, and the leadership pushed back on it. they pushed down. we have seen time and time again, between a bob dole and john mccain, george bush sr., leaders stand up in the party and reorient the morings. >> w. went to a mosque and said there's no place for antimuslim rhetoric. >> that does not happen today. listen to what republicans leaders are saying about ukraine, what they have said about putin. the reality of it is something far worse inside the party has taken hold of it. i don't know if an election clears that out. i think this runs deeper than we lost the house or didn't get the senate. there's something else going on there that's making it harder. and, you know, good republicans like yourself have said enough. crazy ones like me are like, okay, keep the porch light on

for another day. but the reality of it is we're beyond that, and i think marc's piece touches exactly on the thing we have to get at, and it's hard to crack that open. >> and marc's speech doesn't say the cia needs to do blah blah blah, no, it's the gop needs to look at itself. and the gop needs to save itself because nobody else can save the gop. nobody else can save the republican party but the republican party itself. >> but the cycle continues and grow. marc, to that point, you mentioned donald trump's comments by pelosi, they were met with a lock her up chant about pelosi from the crowd in ohio. inhumane response and so much of this hate is spread so easily on social media. and we have seen those conditions change. elon musk trafficking in conspiracy theories himself, the new owner of twitter, but also already his analysis, rise in hateful rhetoric.

anti-semitic rhetoric on that social media site. how deeply concerned are you that that is now another platform where this hate will spread and could manifest itself in more acts of violence. >> right, jonathan, the counter terrorism world, one of the things that we're always most concerned about is the rise of lone wolf attackers. that's someone who is going to be radicalized online, who's going to accept the propaganda, that's going to take action. something that dhs officials and fbi officials have been concerned about. that's what we're seeing now. when you have a political poll that says one in three republicans, you know, think it's okay for violence to be enacted to save america, that's really disturbing. you throw that on top of economic conditions in the country. there's mental health issues, and there are individuals out there who will get radicalized just as we saw overseas, and that's something that greatly concerns our law enforcement partners. to think you're going to see more of this in the future. one last piece, too, as a u.s.

official who served overseas, we did a lot of finger wagging at other counties when they had issues with democracy, freedom of press, of religion, of political violence, and the world is watching us now, and frankly wondering what the hell is happening. i get calls all the time from friends overseas who look at this election, election deniers about the win in droves, in fact, something's wrong here. there's a sickness that's going on in this country. and, you know, today's election day. i love this day. i get motivated by it. i don't feel optimistic about the next several months. >> former cia officer, marc polymeropoulos, thank you very much, let's get to what's happening. early voting has outpaced the 2018 midterm election by more than 5 million votes. let's break that down by state. first, georgia, where 2.5 million americans voted early in person or by mail.

49% were registered democrats. 10% other. in pennsylvania, more than a million early votes have been cast. 70% from registered democrats, 21% from registered republicans. and 9% other. and here are the numbers from arizona. democrats lead that count by 2% with 1.4 million early votes cast. 24% were registered members of another party. democrats have a 5 point early vote lead in ohio, where 1.6 million votes have already been cast. democrats have out paced republicans in just about every state in the early vote. florida, however, is an exception. republicans lead there, 43% to 37% with 20% registered to another party. republicans believe florida's most popular party which hasn't

gone red in two decades. stumping for the state's democratic nominee for governor, wes moore, about half an hour outside of washington, the president emphasized the importance of today's vote, and highlighted his administration's legislative wins and drew a contrast between the two major parties. >> i am feel guilty again repeating it. our lifetimes will be shaped by the next three years, shaping what the next decades look like for real. let's be clear, this election is not a referendum, it's a choice. it's a choice between two very different visions of america. you know what their number one priority is if they take control of the house? they're saying it out loud. they want to get rid of everything we just did, the power we gave medicare to negotiate lower prices, gone.

the $2,000 cap on prescription drugs gone. the $35 a month cap on insulin, gone. tax credits for lower energy costs gone. 15% corporate minimum tax, gone. the $800 saves for health premiums, gone. look folks, it gets worse from there. wes's opponent won't stand up to his own party. he won't stand up to the nra, and he is the guy, this is the guy raffling off an ar-15 at a campaign event. give me a break for god's sake. he's concerned about public safety? >> after the rally, president biden spoke to reporters on the white house lawn about his party's chances today. i'm not optimistic, and i'm always optimistic. >> do democrats win the house? >> i think it's going to be tough. i think we can. i think they'll win the senate and the house is tougher. >> i think the house is tougher, if you couldn't hear that over marine one. interesting michael steele that the president of the united states was in maryland yesterday

as you've just pointed out. wes moore could win by 30 points. what do you make of the message, though? >> the message was the thing, and the backdrop was a safe space. a very blue state with a candidate that's going to win by 30 points, fine. but i think the critical thing, and i have to give the white house props in the last ten to 15 days, sort of getting that message honed and coordinated in a way, and i think obama helped a great deal with that. obviously. and i think it's something that the democrats can go out and make their final pitch. the key thing today, whether the president's in buoy or he's not is what is the organizational structure on the ground for dems knowing, going into this election, knowing that your turn out models are not hinged so much on the early vote but same day. you've got to overwhelm the ballot box on same day to have those 43, 41, 45% edge in the

early vote really matter. and that is a test i don't know if the democrats are prepared to pass. >> let's go it pennsylvania. a senate race that just months ago most thought democrats could easily win. it's now a toss up. the mehmet oz campaign has changed its strategy in the last few weeks to focus on bipartisanship in washington. >> oh, my god. >> nbc news reports his critics aren't buying it. democrats see his message as blatant hypocrisy considering he's backed by former president donald trump, and has campaigned with him. on sunday, oz hosted a round table event with senator susan collins of maine, and congressman brian fitzpatrick of pennsylvania. two of the most moderate republican members of congress. there are signs oz's new strategy has resonated with voters. his new messaging has coincided with a rise in the polls where

he now finds himself in a virtual tie with lieutenant governor john fetterman. adrienne elrod, your take on pennsylvania this morning. >> yeah, first of all, i'm not sure that voters are buying in bipartisanship, this new strategy by dr. oz. i think at this point, you know, donald trump is something, i don't think it's going to work. a couple of things that have happened in pennsylvania that have been favorable toward john fetterman, the oprah winfrey endorsement was huge. she really propped up dr. oz's career, she created him. that was big, and of course we have seen our party's top surrogates going in. president obama has been there a few times. president biden. so it's been, we are obviously looking at this. i think democrats are looking at this race as ground zero in terms of whether or not we hold on to the senate. fetterman looks better, and sounds better. >> he's sounding great.

>> and it's important for people. we all saw him in the debate. and obviously he was very challenged. i would guess, though, because of the nerves, because everything else, it makes a difficult situation even more difficult. we haven't seen him campaigning day in and day out like the people of pennsylvania on local news. you heard him last night, very strong. very articulate. very put together. very force. that's what, at least from the clips we saw, that's what people in philadelphia, in pittsburgh, in williamsport, that's what they have been seeing. it may be one of the reasons why he's holding tough in those polls. and why oz just can't seem to get over that 45%. >> that's right. look, also josh shapiro is running for governor, run an outstanding campaign. that's going to help propel fetterman over the finish line. i said this on the show a couple of times. i know they exist, but who are these, you know, oz or rather i

should say shapiro/oz voters. i don't think they exist in large margins. it's hard to imagine he's going in and saying i'm voting for josh shapiro, and also dr. oz. >> and one of the main reasons why has less to do with ideology, jonathan, than it does the fact that oz has the highest disapproval ratings. i've seen with a competitive senate candidate. they have stayed high, and you know, people around his camp, they keep waiting for him to break that 45% barrier, 46% barrier to get close to 50, and they haven't been able to do it. >> the label that oz is out of touch has stuck. he has never been able to shed that. the idea that he lived in new jersey, voted for turkey, doesn't know the names of the local supermarket chains, doesn't know when the steelers have a bye week.

that has never gone away. >> and by the way, that's not good. remember, i think it was martha cokeley who made a statement about fenway, said it's the first time she went to fenway, and messed up the names of players on the team. in certain states it matters. pennsylvania, massachusetts, are among them. you got to get that stuff right. nothing matters more than eeg -- eagles and steelers in that state. >> people may say, oh, that's shallow, who cares about, you know, it doesn't matter if you're not out of touch. >> that's right. >> if you're not perceived as being out of touch. everything oz is doing, misnaming supermarket chains and not figuring out when the steelers play football, that puts him out of touch. >> the oz campaign has targeted the shapiro voters in recent

weeks, behind the bipartisan push, and fetterman, i was texting yesterday with a fetterman aide who would send me screen shots of trump standing behind oz looming over his shoulder at the rally. they think it will be close but feeling better about pennsylvania than ten days ago. >> you can't at the last minute say i'm having coffee with susan collins, and that can't wipe away the fact that donald trump endorsed you, and calls animals on the side. >> adrienne elrod, thank you for coming in this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," veteran democratic strategist james carville will be our guest this morning. we'll talk to him about what he's watching on this election day. plus, voters will see extra security at dozens of polling locations today as the doj looks to crack down on reports of intimidation. we'll tell you where that's taking place. also ahead, one of our next guests is taking a look at why democrats are losing hispanic

voters. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. s"morning" we will be right back.

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we're so ready for fair elections, aren't we? and yet i know, like many of you, and especially me, i'm worried about tomorrow. who's worried about tomorrow? and these bastards back there don't want us talking about stolen elections. well, it doesn't matter what they attempt tomorrow because we're going to show up like our lives depend on it. and there's not a darn thing

that katie hobbs can screw up tomorrow to make our win any less significant because we're going to win tomorrow. we're going to vote tomorrow. and we are going to take arizona back. >> yeah, that's interesting. those bastards don't want us to talk about stolen elections. guess what, i got bad news for you, kari. even the cyber punks came out to your state trying to rig it. and they couldn't do it. so you're so sad they stole your election. maybe you should talk to the county commissioners in maricopa county because they said it was all bull shit what you're saying. republicans, kari, senators that ran it, they said it was all bull shit, kari, but you're so sad. oh, oh, i must prepare because if i lose to a woman who didn't even debate me, i better say the

election was rigged because that would mean i'm a really terrible frightening candidate. i just wonder, kari, how does one go present hope and change. >> voting for barack obama. >> and being a barack obama supporter, hope and change. >> loved him. >> to becoming an election denier. >> and she was one of those bastards. >> those bastards in the back. oh, wait, that i was when i was a barack obama supporter. >> i'm confused. >> hope and change. is now so worried that she may lose to a woman who didn't even debate her. what's her name, katie hobbs. did she even campaign, she's scared of her shadow. >> she held events. >> they're going to take her to pennsylvania like on february the 2nd, and if katie hobbs doesn't see her shadow, what do

we have, another six weeks of winter. i have never seen anybody more afraid to campaign than katie hobbs. but kari lake fears that she may lose, and if she loses, as she's pulled from the stage. >> such brutal acting. >> she wants to grab the curtains of democracy and take it down with her. could you feel her? she was so hurt. >> wow. >> despite the fact that the republican county commissioners in maricopa county said you can count this as many times as you would like. do you want another recount, we'll do another recount. the senate says, you want another recount, they do, what, three, four, five recounts in arizona, joe biden keeps winning, and finally somebody says let's call the cyber punks,

and those nerds go out, i think there may be bamboo in the ballots. let's check and see if china sent bamboo. and as willie said, they were going to lick the ballots. >> you got to taste them. >> and if they got a splinter in their tongue from the bamboo in china, then it was rigged. i got to say, i don't know, maybe that's good acting in local news. i don't know. >> that was the worst acting i've ever seen. >> it wasn't really good. >> it was terrible. it was brutal. >> i've seen a lot of teenagers that can act better than that. and yet she's talking about, again, telling us right now if she doesn't win, then she's going to try to take democracy down with her in the state of arizona and challenge the elections. this is where we are. these quaint concepts of free and fair elections, peaceful

transitions, madisonian democracy, and my god, even the constitution itself, the supremacy clause, she says she's going to send arizona sheriffs to the border to arrest fbi agents. you do that, kari. you do that. let's see who wins that, right? like you may have to actually follow the law. and i will say, willie, when democrats say we must win every election or democracy is at risk, it bothers me. it bothers me because sometimes people are just voting their wallets. sometimes people are just voting about prices at the gas station. sometimes people are just voting high gasoline prices. sometimes people are just voting for things that matter to them. they're not voting on an existential decision on democracy. arizona, though, is one of those races, a handful of races where there is a lot on the line because we have somebody openly

saying she will not respect the will of the voters. she will not respect madisonian democracy if she does not win. that is a danger for the people of arizona. it ultimately becomes a danger for the people of the united states of america. if she is the governor when we're counting votes in 2024, and there may be an outcome that maybe kari doesn't like. >> and she's not alone. the secretary of state, mark finchem has said the same thing. he said i'm not going to necessarily respect the results of the 2024 presidential election. we'll have to wait and see what happens. blake masters for the senate, he would have less say but on the state level, you have an entire slate of elections that are election deniers. that's a different outcome. we should also point out those recounts, joe, in arizona, the many many recounts turned up more votes for joe biden after

millions of dollars spent, after conspiracy theorists base instead florida, the cyber ninjas were flown in and given access to machines and ballots. more votes for joe biden were found than for donald trump after all of that. >> and republican officials, mike, one after another in the state of arizona was like, come on, guys, come on. this was a fair and free election. we counted it up right. like, come on. move along. move along. and even, again, the cyber punks, they find more votes for joe biden at the end, and you still have election deniers here. again, people who just, they don't think the rules apply. talking about gravity applying, they don't think gravity applies anymore. they don't believe in the rules of gravity that they can do whatever they want. they can fly above the rules that everybody else has to fly above. they can float above the rules that every elected leader has had to live by for 240 years in

this great constitutional republic. >> you know, what we have been talking about here, what you have been talking about here largely for the past three or four minutes i think is the substance of what is so altered the political landscape of the united states of america. we just saw a performance by an actress, not a candidate, an actress. >> not a good one, but an actress all the same. >> kari lake, yeah. >> and she's good enough for the stage of arizona, but if you look at the landscape of american politics, and you look at what kari lake said, and you look at what the secretary of state finchem says, they're not going to accept the vote unless they win, you wonder why it's such an issue out there with people, ordinary people. they are sick of all of this. why? because people like kari lake

and too many republicans and election deniers in the past and today, this has been going on for six straight years. there has been no let up in the assault on our senses from the president, former president of the united states, the other guy who continues still doing it every day. he makes the news every day with his lies and his hysteria, and his insults and his back of common sense, and lack of civility, every day we put him on tv. every day for six years, think about what that does to your senses. >> well, it's a fascist cult. this is how it happens. and everybody who studies fascism can mark the beginning of this to this moment now. >> it is, indeed, you're right, but what it does is it deadens the senses of the average human

being. >> of course. every shocking moment that has gone by, america has become less sensitized and, you know what, there are people who are victims of this cult. i will not hold them responsible. i don't understand christians, i really don't. i don't understand what's happened to christians. >> you mean christian nationalists. >> i don't understand christians who are out there, paul pelosi got hit, let's make fun of him. i don't understand how they can do it. >> i'm just focusing, you don't understand christian nationalists who have become ensnarled in this cult. >> i don't understand it at all, how they can use the word chris tan. but for kari lake what's, i think, the most triggering about a candidate like kari lake is that she knows what she's doing. she absolutely knows. >> the barack obama supporter. >> that she is, for her, for anything she gains, she hurts democracy. >> and what's so stunning,

though, is to watch democrats cede to kari lake without a fight. you have an opponent who won't even debate her. so kari lake gets up, she spews all of that just absolute nonsense. where is her opponent saying this is bull shit and coming out forcefully. this is someone who's calling the media bastards and she accepted her paycheck from a media enterprise for decades. >> decades, hope and change, baby. hope and change. >> but you are right, though. so if we are to believe that kari lake may be the greatest looming threat, to american democracy of all the candidates that are on the ballot this year, then why do the democrats just sit back. why do they nominate somebody who's afraid to debate her? >> and not counter the message because it's out there. there's this idea, oh, don't

dignify it, but if you just keep silent, then you're -- >> expose it. expose it. look, the only thing she had to do was getting on that stage with kari lake, and every time kari lake opened her mouth, you turn, you look at her, and you go, and that's why you're unqualified to be governor and make your point. every word. this is not a hard debate, joe, to have. >> and by the way, again, i don't have all -- let's just say, that's why the four republican county commissioners in maricopa county said what you're saying is a lie. that's why the state senator said what you're saying is a lie. that's why the three recounts prove that you're a liar. and just go down the list. >> kari lake is a liar. >> if katie hobbs is afraid of her shadow, then just write it down here, and when she starts

lying, people don't care, just read it. i'm not really good on tv, but i can read, and she just reads it. where has she been? >> fetterman putting himself out there. >> contrast with john fetterman who has been through so much and is still giving it his all, it's just astonishing. >> i think the voters respond to that. >> this is a massive dereliction of duty, not only on katie hobbs' part but on the part of arizona democratic party and on the part of the national democratic party. if this woman who's afraid of her shadow, and if democrats believe as they all say, kari lake poses a grave risk to democracy, what are you going to do about it, which raises a question, michael steele, when is the biden white house going to get a political director in there, because they don't have a political director outside the white house. no, they don't have anybody

inside the white house. you've got, you know, bush had carl row, clinton had carville. he had political directors. biden, they haven't used the bully pulpit effectively. they haven't focused their message effectively. democrats may have a deteriorate -- great night tonight, they might. we're looking at kari lake, do you think james carville would have let that fly. >> no, no. >> james carville would have gone out himself, and said i don't know what's wrong with that woman, but when is the white house, let me ask this question, when is the white house going to get a political director that focuses their message and helps them effectively use the bully pulpit, willie? >> yeah, michael. >> joe's asked the question. >> first of all, i would say ron

klain is the de facto political director. >> no, he's not. >> he's the chief of staff. >> he's the chief of staff, and if you call tweeting while you're chief of staff a political director. >> i'm not defending it. i'm just saying, i think that's the role he serves. >> he ain't a political director. i've seen a political director and ron klain ain't a political director. >> and that's not the job of the chief of staff. like you said, the bush white house had karl rove, he ran the political operations and made the connection in the messaging and the organization structure with the rnc. for the dnc, like the rnc, the political arm of the white house, so they get to do politically the things the white house wants to be above and not have their finger prints on. that has not been the style or effort on this white house behalf to go out and use the dnc as a battering ram in a way to push back on certain narratives,

lift up other narratives. they spent the first 18 months in a battle with sinema and manchin in something they didn't need to fight about. the president's state of the union should have been about the call of democracy in the moment, connecting, europe, ukraine, to what's happening at home and weaving narratives around the economy, health care into the overarching story of democracy. those were missed moments. but i go back to what i said in the last hour. in the last few weeks, what is taken is barack obama to kind of put that umph, that spin, that moment in clarifying, crystal clarity for folks. the white house is going to be the beneficiary of that in some respects. i don't think the night is going to be as bad for dems as a lot of people are projecting for a host of reasons that i touched on before, the electorate is telling us something that is not

being captured in polls right now. it has not been captured in polls for a while, and while a lot of folks' emphasis has been placed on how that has animated itself on the right, it has also animated itself in the center and on the left, and how i think to your question about the political part of it. how the white house responds, if, in fact, they're sitting there looking at a republican house and a republican senate, they're going to need that political director because the next two years are going to be a hellscape of unimaginable consequences for the country because it's not about governing on the right. it is about impeachment. it is about retribution. it is about the bidding of trump. >> remind people what the margins are. we put up the graphics. one net gain for republicans in the senate. five seats to gain in the house, and republicans control the house as well. mike, to go back to your earlier

point as we watch kari lake about the numbness in the country, there's cynicism, political cynicism, we have seen that for generations and then there's malice. and what she's doing there, and other candidates do is malicious to the democracy, which is to say, she knows better, she's a smart woman, and she's okay going out so she can earn a job and win a job to say you don't have the honor the results of the election. you don't have to do what we have done for more than 200 years in this country. she's willing to throw it out on the table in case she loses the ground has been seeded for that. it's something that donald trump has started but finding its way into races across the country. >> no doubt about it, and no doubt the damage it's done to the country. the damage has been done over the course of really six years. and the other aspect of it is why? and i don't know the answer to this. why have the democrats been so weak in their inability to attack. why are they so weak in terms of

using combative language. let's go to liar lake, it's polluted. it's polluted. stuff like that. but they don't know how to do hand-to-hand verbal combat it seems. they don't know how to do it in the issues of inflation, the issues of crime, and something we don't talk about enough that's out there, an underlying issue. none of the democrats i have heard talked about the impact that schools or lack of schools have had on families from coast to coast in this country. i haven't heard them talk about it. >> i will say in defense of democrats, it's very hard to come back against a fire hose of lies, and, you know, they're here, they're there, they can say anything as opposed to democrats. >> do it. come back. >> joe can do it.

>> it's very simple. if you want to see who can do it, look what barack obama does. you can look what, you know, there are skilled candidates. look what josh shapiro does, tim ryan, it's just not hard. the thing is it's not the catastrophing, the toast has too much butter. democracy is failing. >> stop it. >> you have to mock them, and that's why barack obama lines up so well against trumpists is because he goes in there, he gives the -- and then he kind of laughs. >> the herschel walker bid. the can you believe what kari lake is saying. by the way, it's facts. just get the facts, and say, you know, maricopa county,

republican county commission, the maricopa election board, you know, the arizona republican senate, you go down the list, right, and you just have to do it, and why is this important? for me. this is not about who wins arizona. it's not about who wins tonight. this is about my friends. this is about my family. this is about my loved ones. that they're hearing these lies, and they're buying into these lies. why? because people like katie hobbs are running. because democrats at times, seem to be afraid of their own shadow. need to get the truth out. and it's not that hard. where there is weakness, democrats bring strength. where there are lies, tell the truth. it's not that hard. >> so two points on that. the first, you're exactly right, and the narrative is not a

complicated one where you're just saying the facts, and the facts are that it's not democrats saying that the election wasn't stolen. it's republican elected officials who are saying these elections were not stolen. using that as your shield to go into those conversations against election deniers is one way to combat it. but i will say this, here we are on election day. it is 7:45 in the morning. >> that's all? >> folks are going to get up and yeah.about voting today. >> if you've heard anything this morning, the one thing you need to take away from this is you need to get your ass out and vote. obama said that. republicans are saying that. independents are saying that across the country. you got to go out and vote to prove the truth of democracy, and to disprove that despite the incompetency, despite the inability to get the message that the voters got this because

if you don't get it now, you're going to get it come next year, baby, because trust me, what's about to hit you, you ain't going to like. you need to get your butt up. get yourself together. >> it's true. >> and go out and vote. >> amen. >> and you know how you need to do it. you need to vote for pro democracy candidates who are looking you in the eye and telling you the last election wasn't stolen, that idiot over there is lying to you, and we're going to come correct on this thing. that's how you do it, joe. >> it is, and you do it with optimism. like, for instance, this morning, i'm actually optimistic. i love elections. i love the fact that more americans are voting this midterm election than any other midterm election in american history. that's something for us to celebrate. i'm really -- i'm happy that in the state of georgia, no, i am, in the state of georgia, everyone is running around going jim crow 2.0. willie and i were saying at the

time, yeah, no, you probably want to go back and look at, like, bull connor. because like i understand we want to give people water in a line, but it's not quite like unleashing german shepherds and fire hoses on people in the streets, so there's this wailing and weeping and gnashing of teeth. they move the all star game from atlanta before they even read the bill, before they even heard democrats in georgia going don't do that, please, let's keep the all star game here, but they didn't do it, so the braves got pissed off and won the world series. anyway, the thing is, let's celebrate the fact that in georgia, the numbers just outrageously just outrageously high. americans participating in elections higher this midterm election than ever before. that's something to be happy and hopeful about. >> 44 million people have already voted before the polls

opened today. that's an astounding number and it dwarfs 2018 which was also a big number. go out and vote for whoever i want to vote for. i always feel on election day, aren't we lucky to live here where we have a say in the thing because we've grown up with it, but we get a say in it. whatever your say is, go have it. go make your statement. you get to press a button and decide which direction we're headed right now. >> one final thing and alex has been trying to get -- one other thing. >> yeah, please. >> there will be some crack pots. there will be some freaks and some insurrectionists that win tonight. all right? that's a bad thing, and i understand that, but we also have federal judges. we have right-wing federal judges. we have federalist society federal judges who get 65 chances to buy into donald trump's bullshit and 65 times --

i'm going to pass on that and you have donald trump saying i have presidential privilege. no, no you don't, don. strike him down there. i don't have to give my taxes. no, sorry about that. see? we have -- people go, why do you always talk about madisonian democracy? i talk about madisonian democracy because that's the beauty of what we're doing. we're voting for the legislative branch this year. two years from now we'll vote for the legislative branch and -- and the executive branch, but the thing that separates america from every other country is the rule of law, and i did learn that in congress, one or two trips i took, and i learneded that very quickly. i actually sat in the case, and i saw basically a judge being a judge and a jury and executioner, basically, and i

thought, man, we've got this incredible system. we can celebrate it and we can look at what happened -- whatever happens, not catastrophize i never lose. whoever loses, republicans or democrats learn from your losses and move forward. >> let's look at what's happening at the governor's races across the country. nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster has more on those races right now. take a look. away from the fight for control of congress are battles for governor ships across the country. >> i will work my heart out, and i will fight like hell for this state and the future of oklahoma. >> 36 seats up for grabs, costly and competitive fights in nine states including the presidential battlegrounds of georgia, michigan and nevada. >> hello, las vegas! >> these races getting national

attention. democrats concerned about the future of presidential elections with candidates like doug mastriano in pennsylvania. >> voting integrity. wow. oh, my goodness i've seen better elections in afghanistan. not hyperbole. >> as an nbc news count show half of the gubernatorial candidates have cast doubt on the 2020 election. >> we're going to get election integrity back here in the state of wisconsin. >> in wisconsin, tim michaels initially wouldn't say if he would certify the 2024 presidential election if his party candidate didn't win, but when pressed on the issue during last month's debate he said he would after passing changes to election laws calling them his top priority. >> certainly issues around abortion. that's a national issue. voting rights is a national issue, but the idea that somehow we're going to change our voting rights here in wisconsin, make it more difficult to vote.

that will make a big difference in 2024. >> republicans across the country seeing moment up with the focus crime, covid and economic issues. >> hello, long island! targeting racists seen as only democrat weeks ago, now looking vulnerable like the one in new york state. >> you know why nothing change the day after the dobbs decision because i'm the governor of the state of new york and he's not. democrats hitting hard on abortion rights especially in states where role reversals significantly changed access. >> she's the one who said a 14-year-old child raped by her uncle is the perfect example of someone who should not have reproductive rights and the ability to choose. >> adding pressure to an already tense cycle. >> i'm nervous, but excited. >> why nervous? >> i think there's a lot at stake and a lot of policy decisions that will be derived from what our votes lead to. >> knowing statewide races have national implications, shaquille

brewster, nbc news. >> coming up, we'll have the latest from nevada where republicans are feeling confident they can flip a senate seat. meanwhile, in georgia, there's a lot of optimism within the stacy abrams campaign. why they believe she's in a better position to win georgia's governor's race than she was four years ago. >> wow. can't wait to hear that. >> we'll be right back.

♪ ♪ ♪♪ one day the tv news is out there saying oh, democrats are

up in the polls and shattering historical precedent and republicans will rule the night and feast on human flesh, and then the next day they're, like -- or not, you know? and today the last day before the election, we spotted this actual headline in "the daily beast," pollsters have no [ bleep ] idea what's going to happen this election! really? >> that's true. >> you know who tells you that? >> pollsters and candidates. nobody knows. >> we don't. >> tom brokaw yet again. let's let the people actually vote first. >> what happens tonight is anyone's guess. welcome back to "morning joe." it is tuesday, november 8th, election day. at stake today the balance of power in washington and in states that could determine the outcome of future elections. the biden agenda is also on the line and some argue possibly democracy itself.

here's the lay of the land upon. first the house, the democrats have a 220-212 advantage with two vacancies. republicans need five seats to take control of the lower chamber. that is the smallest number of seats the party out of power has needed to flip the house in 90 years. >> remember, michael -- republicans ran up massive numbers, right, in '14? >> in '10 and '14. >> in '10, the early projections were 39 seats and we picked up 63. >> wow. >> you know, with that was a combination of state and gubernatorial races, as well and the environment today is very different and i think voters have a chance to reshape and that's yet pollsters have no clue because there are so many voters they haven't talked to and so many voters waiting by their landline.

>> i think if you're a house republican, you have to hope that you do at least as well as the democrats did in 2018, at least, during the trump era when democrats picked up 40 seats. so if you're a republican and you don't get 40 seats, you know? it's probably a little bit of a disappointment because everything is breaking the republicans' way in the house. >> that would be more of a red splash, but i guarantee that the messaging is that it is a huge victory if they win 20-30 whereas against president obama republicans picked up 63 seats. so it's just republicans are already crushing it on the messaging front and democrats just kind of seem to be, maybe democracy will survive. >> oh, my lord. that's not how they feel, that's for sure. as we know for the senate it's a 50-50 split meaning republicans need to gain one seat to take control of the upper chamber. we're watching the senate races

in nine battleground states with particular focus on arizona, nevada, new hampshire, wisconsin and pennsylvania, and now to the 36 governors races, many in presidential battle grounds as we saw in 2020. these races matter for the certification of electoral college results. right now republicans hold 28 governor ships, democrats, 22. more than 44 million americans have already cast a ballot either by mail or in person outpacing the 2018 mid-terms by more than 5 million votes, willie. >> we have nbc reporters fanned out across the country covering those key races. vaughn hilliard is in arizona and tremane lee and vaughn, set the scene for us there? >> let's be very clear here, willie. there are numerous races from attorney general to secretary of state in which republicans are running as election deniers.

of course, you've got u.s. senate candidate blake masters who has consistently trailed mark kelly in polls here, yet that's what brings in kari lake into the equation. she's this republican phenomena, perhaps donald trump's favorite candidate in 2022 and she's trying to drag along the likes of blake masters across the finish line because she's consistently outpolled the other republicans here and she's consistently, though by a narrow margin led democrat katie hobbs in the state of arizona. i think when we talk about kari lake today, it's important to note that kari lake, not only this week has returned to the kari lake that rose to prominence and was able to carry the favor of donald trump. she campaigned along the likes of steve bannon and she campaigned along one of the prominent promoters of pizzagate and alongside an individual who

propagated the idea of a war on white people. this week she called for the prosecution and criminal charges to be handed down to those who were responsible for covid response here in the state of arizona. she's called for the prosecution and the jailing of journalists and she's called for the prosecution and the jailing of elections officials. this is an individual who just last night again suggested that here, for governor's race without providing specific evidence and specific allegations is suggesting it could be rigged. this is an individual kari lake who has continued to be the unabashed conspiracy theorist that led her to the gop nomination and potentially is on the cusp of becoming the next governor of arizona. this is somebody who has said that she intends to serve out her term as arizona governor, but it's hard when you see the number of former white house officials that have come into arizona to help out her candidacy, realizing what she has in store. it is hard to turn away from the knowledge that arizona voters here could choose, knowingly

choose that somebody who has denied and called for the de-certification of the 2020 election could ultimately take the reins of the state with the majorities in the republican legislature and reconfigure how potentially elections are run here in the state and potentially even the courts would probably step in and try to decertify the 2020 election. >> she certainly is a candidate in donald trump's mold. all of that is true, vaughn, but the voters do get a chance to say if she becomes governor of arizona. tremane lee in arizona looking very closely at that senate race which may take us, tremane, into next month that's right, willie. georgians have showed up in record history. if stacy wins she'll be the first black woman in this country. you mentioned the race between rafael warnock and herschel walker. when raphael won he was the

first in a confederate state in history and now it will be leshl walker or raphael warnock. the game here is turnout, turnout, turnout. hb-202 which restricted and limited voting in the state and how it may impact black voters and they'll show up in numbers higher than registered voters. raphael warnock has held a slim lead, but still neck and neck, and it will be a turnout battle ask it was not lost on anyone here, but the polls may say one thing and it's about who comes up and votes today. stacy abrams camp has been excited saying maybe we'll buck the poll because of that apparatus. in this state, georgia, ground zero for the mobilization effort. there are efforts to push back and make sure they're organizing and get voters out. >> yes. massive early voting in the state of georgia. tremane lee in atlanta. we appreciate it. >> let's swing out to vegas

where we find jacob soboroff. >> hey, willie, the top of the race is masto and adam laxalt. you will remember he was one of the chief election deniers out here in the presidential election election and i was there and watched with my own eyes who later ran to their waiting sprinter van. it's been since debunked by the republican secretary of state here, of course, but in addition to the issues, affordability, abortion, you name it. top of mind and especially election officials is safeguarding the integrity of the election and yesterday the department of justice announced it was going to send federal monitors and jurisdictions all throughout the country to protect people's civil and voting rights. i asked joe gloria from clark county, and las vegas, nevada

and what he thought about that inside his election headquarters yesterday and this is what he told me. the department of justice said they'll send monitors to 64 different election jurisdictions to monitor for voting rights violations. have they called you? would you welcome those monitors? >> absolutely. they're not here because of civil rights violations. they're here to monitor to make sure there are no civil rights violations. it's not unusual for them to be here. they were here in 2020. they come around. i usually don't even see them. they end up giving me a report when the election is over. so we're very happy to be here and this is a large county in the state of nevada. >> i understand they had calls with the secretaries of state today and have you spoken to the justice department about the monitoring effort and what do you know about it? >> they called me last week and gave me their representative and their phone number so we know they'll be circulating through the county tomorrow.

>> that's joe gloria, the man in charge of elections in las vegas and clark county, nevada. shout out to them doing non-partisan election work. joe gloria wants everyone to know that it might not be an early night in nevada if the race is close. not only those mail-in ballots that we saw behind us when we were talking, but the early vote and it could be ten days here in nevada before we have a final, certified result out of clark county if senator masto and adam laxalt have a tight race tonight, guys. >> they are expected to be tight in nevada opinion jacob soboroff in nevada, tremane lee in georgia and vaughn hilliard, and we'll go to florida, pennsylvania and wisconsin. >> dean of public service at the university of arkansas, victoria

di francesco soto. he's outside with a piece why democrats are losing hispanic voters. let's read from tim's piece. the left has alienated the voters. the first is that it required the presidency of donald trump for some democrats to question their own dogma. trump is supposed to be uniquely unacceptable to minorities and hispanics in particular, yet democrats didn't see major gains during his four years in office, instead, their margin shrank. the second irony, the very thing that breathes life into the party, the focus on identity and inclusion is making it more popular with whit voters and less popular with hispanic voters and tim, let me add to that black voters according to

reverend al sharpton who says that he is baffled and his parishioners wherever he goes are baffled by some of the more progressive stance the far left takes on racial justice. this is something that david shore started warning democrats about two years ago. >> joe. that's exactly right. this is not that complicated. we want to treat this, perhaps, like it's a mystery, but it really boils down to simple reality that you hear from democrats of color at the local level all across the country. they believe that their party has, over the last several years, made a sort of conscious effort to appeal to affluent, upper middle-class suburban wides and to their sort of cultural concerns at the expense

of the everyday economic concerns of working and middle class people of color and it's basically that simple and this has played out in many different ways across the country. you see it in the rio grande valley and you see it in the southwest. at the end of the day, if there was an easy answer to this for democrats, i think they would have been reaching for it already, but it's not an easy answer and it's manifesting itself in different ways and what we will see is a validation of what david shore and others have been worried about for the last couple of years. >> victoria, you look at florida, and i remember in 2020 how well donald trump did with hispanic voters in miami-dade. of course, the same donald trump that called hispanics breeders, called mexicans that came across the border rapists and we can go down the long list and yet he

picked up gains. in miami-dade, we are told by republican data specialists in florida that ron desantis is going to win florida with hispanics statewide and it's going to be a massive sweep through miami-dade county. what do you think is causing this? >> the strength of trump in florida and other pockets has to do with the diversity of the latino population. trump has been extremely effective at targeting folks who come from countries where there has been socialism and that is a message that he has hammered home, and has been able to pull those latinos over. cuban-american, nicaraguans, colombians, but in terms of tim's piece of why are we seeing this movement, he does point out that the truth of the matter is that latinos had been swing voters. we kind of forgot about it, but the truth of the matter is even going back it 1984, ronald

reagan saying, hey, hispanics are republican. they just don't know it yet. republicans had started targeting latinos back in the '80s. they kind of fell back and then george w. bush did a very hard push and latinos were up for grabs in the 2000s. mccain just kind of gave up on latinos, as did romney as did trump in 2016 and then over the 2018, 2019 years we saw trump and the republican party court latinos. it's not so much that we're seeing a turn to the republican party for latinos and rather there was this dormant swingingness among latinos and republicans are back in the fight and trying to court that vote. >> so, tim, reading through your exhaustive piece which is as usual for you, really and it gets into the problem at some length in a really smart way, there's a moment from danny ortega who served as an icon in

arizona where he says effectively the democratic party has a credibility crisis and it's not specific to immigration. what is that credibility crisis? what are latino voters not hearing from democrats that they used to hear or instead they're hearing from republicans? yeah, willie, what i heard from danny ortega is what i heard from hispanic democrats from all over the country is that they are starting to feel like the democratic party is sort of manipulating them, and sort of using them in ways that maybe they had suspected in years past, but were willing to sort of give them a pass for it, but now it's come to a head. they hear when they hear some of this rhetoric around, you know, social justice and not just social justice broadly, but democracy under attack. in arizona, specifically, as vaughn pointed out in his report earlier, this is an issue on the ground and a real thing and yet

for a lot of hispanic voters, there's almost a boy who cried wolf dynamic where they believe that they've been hearing for the last number of decades that republicans are coming for you, you better vote democratic or else and now they look at vaughn and say where is this aspirational ability and talk that we heard from the obama campaign. instead it is all fear and loathing. when it comes to immigration, gay rights, civil rights, a lot of democrats believe that they have the sort of moral high ground here, but at the end of the day they're not speaking to the issues that are most directly resident with working and middle-class voters in these places and they'll pay a price for it tonight. >> victoria, from that perspective, from tim's piece and the segment right here, right now what have the democrats done other than perhaps taken hispanic voters for granted. what issues that matter most to hispanics generally have they

missed out on? >> i think it's the treatment of immigration is one of the weaknesses here where latinos are very diverse in terms of their generation. there are some who literally the border crossed their family and they're not immigrants themselves. so for the past couple of years that focus immigration did not resonate as widely as some in the democratic party might have the thought and i think that is one. the other piece is the economics of it. so while reproductive rights matter and there's been a lot of attention on that over the summer, for latinos an working-class latinos and those that are middle class, middle upper class, it shouldn't be to the exclusion of economics and it is a focus reproductive rights and focus on immigration and forgetting the core economic piece and you can have more than

one issue that you're targeting and the trouble is the lack of microtargeting with these electors and the last point is just good, old-fashioned direct mobilization. the latest poll that came out from naleo said 40% of latinos had yet to be contacted by either party? a couple of points here, michael. first of all, when you ask people in miami what happened in 2020, they said trump showed up. trump focused. he focused on hispanics. he went in hard. the biden campaign did not. that's the first thing and the second thing, and i want to touch on what victoria said was the aspirational message. there are people that emigrated here. they want to hear the aspirational message. tim's piece talked about it and i want to hear from hispanic leaders where hispanics for whatever reason don't think that the democratic party is an aspirational party. they are here in america to

better themselves. they are here in america to succeed, and they're getting that message more from republicans economically. they are -- >> i think it's a little bit more than just the economic piece. the other thing that's interesting to me to watch because we see it play out among african-american men, as well, is that trump plays up the machismo. he plays this sort of, you know, soft aggressive kind of male thing and that has a level of appeal, as well. so you have the combination of the aspirational, i came to this country, i want to do well. i want to be better with the connection back to some of those cultural roots where, you know, the way society may have been structured back home. they're not sitting there talking about lgbtq and trans

gender. >> right. >> they look at the family unit very differently. the republicans have been able to make that messaging work for them which is interesting and somewhat ironic when you consider the autopsy of 2012 which was focused primarily on that which donald trump comes down four years later and goes, well, all mexicans are rapists and murderers and we'll build a wall keep them out and two years after that the light bulb comes back on because they thought what they saw from trump in 2016 was the death knell. they came back in a softer way, to your point, talking and connecting the aspirational to that sort of family oriented thing and the thing that appeals to those men about i'm the man of my household, you know, and that had a certain resonance for a lot of african-american men and hispanic men, as well.

>> victoria di francesco, the dean, and tim alberta, we'll be reading the piece that you wrote for "the atlantic." in ohio last night, donald trump said he doesn't want to take the attention away from election day, so why then does he keep the focus himself rather than the candidates he's endorsing like standing right in front of him? plus breaking down tonight's potential bellwethers and we're looking at a handful of important races that forecasters say will be significant in determining the state of democracy in america. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. joe." we'll be right back. ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪

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♪♪ ♪ a very big announcement, on tuesday, november 15th at mar-a-lago in palm beach, florida. [ cheering ] >> we want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow. you understand that, j.d.? >> inhouse music. we didn't add that music. >> that's so -- that is so schlocky. >> he can't help that. >> it's like eighth grade student government. >> that's what schlocks do. >> i want to play some music and

it's going to make the town bigger. i mean, what is that? is that qanon music? >> some have said it's meant to replicate that music. that was president trump during a campaign stop for republican candidate j.d. vance who donald trump has humiliated time and time again and reminded the voters that came j.d. begged me and forgive me, he's kissed my ass. >> that's someone you want fighting for you. >> you know what it is? i think part of this announcement is governor desantis in florida is going to have a big night tonight by all -- >> thanks, desantis. >> we'll let the voters decide. it looks like he is the rising star in the party, without question and donald trump sees that on his flank. >> he didn't add -- >> he's not the rising star of the party. he is the rising star of the

party. he's eclipsed trump in a way that has trump right now sitting on that golden toilet banging his head up against the wall. >> you said he wouldn't do that! >> what is with the toilet talk? >> it's so funny, i get off the phone with my source in florida who the guy is maddeningly accurate, and he has been for 20 years. he said it's going to be a historic win by desantis. >> okay. >> he can get close to 20 points. he can win by 20 points. he's going to win hispanics statewide. he's going to win miami-dade county. >> uh-huh. >> it is going to be one of the most historic wins not just in florida, but for any governor's race, so i hear all this, well,

that's interesting and i hang up the phone and i get about 12 phone calls. what have you heard? i hear trump's running? everyone around him are trying to talk him out of running, but trump may be running and i just started laughing because it's so obvious. he wants to step on ron desantis' headline. desantis has a massive headline, right? and trump, he's going to be in ron's shadow, and he was even angry when ron had that ad a couple of days ago. >> sort of like religious -- >> i am jesus, and i created ron desantis on the eighth day. it was so awful. it was so bush league, it was so offensive and so unchrist-like and yet it made donald trump so angry. that's why he started calling ron desanctimonious. >> not the best. >> but he did give him a

nickname which is the first step in going after you. >> it got a chuckle out of me. >> but there's no doubt, and donald trump is not used to being in anybody's shadow. >> jonathan mere is here, but after tonight he'll be in ron desantais' shadow certainly after the numbers come in and republicans, i'm told veto-proof. for democrats, setting your hair on fire, democrats might have a good night in pennsylvania. take some maalox and call me in the morning, but yeah, trump is going to have to deal with desantis having a massive historic night. >> people around trump have told me for a while now he is singularly focused on desantis and feels he's been ungrateful because it was trump's endorsement that got him over the finish line when he won the first time.

desantis hasn't said he'll bow out if trump does indeed run for president and trump has been angry and doesn't like his stage being stepped on. so aides, he's been threatening to declare his candacy and he thought about doing it after the mar-a-lago search and the aftermath, but he wanted to do it now. he wanted to become the story in the republican party and he wanted to eclipse desantis and if republicans had a good night tonight and he almost did so in the pennsylvania rally and yesterday, trump aides called a bunch of reporters saying hey, you've got to watch ohio tonight. it will happen tonight. it will happen tonight. other republicans talked trump out of it and said wait a week, don't step on our night with the thought being -- >> did mccarthy talk him out of it? i don't know if mccarthy himself called him and there was leadership on the hill that said hold off. don't do it tonight with the

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♪♪ ♪♪ >> also at that ohio campaign rally last night, former president trump mentioned nancy pelosi for the second day in a row. as a reminder, here's what he said on sunday while speaking in miami. >> this was just a group of people where crazy nancy pelosi -- by the way, how is she doing lately? how is she doing? >> last night, the former president was talking about --

>> i mean, again, we talked about yesterday and it's just -- >> ugly. >> it's horrific and it's hard for me to imagine my friends or family members actually supporting that guy. >> i don't understand. >> christians that would have a guy an 82-year-old man getting his brains bashed in. it's a threat. it's a mob threat. so how's your aunt doing? come on. it's a low point. >> the former president talking about the murder conviction of an ms-13 gang member when he brought up pelosi again. >> this was an animal. nancy pelosi said please don't call them animals, they're human beings. no, they're animal. of course, i think she's an animal, too, if you want to know the truth. they'll say what a horrible thing he said about nancy. she impeached me twice for nothing! nothing! they'll say oh, these people,

they're fakers back there, they'll say what a horrible thing he called nancy pelosi an animal. >> yeah. >> it is. >> maybe, don, it is horrible because there have been studies for years since -- i'll say it, since the fall of hitler, since the fall of nazi germany that talks about how nazis dehumanized jews by calling them animals and by doing that, let me use exact language, enabled fascists and disengaged from those he viewed as political enemies thereby justifying acts of violence. look it up. there's been study after study after study. so donald trump jokes about an 82-year-old man getting brutally assaulted, his skull cracked? the crowds cheer.

the next night he calls nancy pelosi an animal. the crowd cheers. again -- people, you know, i know talking about donald trump being a fascist makes some people in polite society uncomfortable. you just look at -- the one thing that held me back from it, willie, before january the 6th was the use of violence. he used violent imagery, but he never crossed the line like mussolini and used violence against government institutions until january the 6th, and he did that. now again, now he's gleeful that somebody that follows him, that wrote in his manifesto, it's all about stolen election saying people in the media should be taken out to the street and shot. he's celebrating that fact and openly celebrating it and now

he's, again, he's using another nazi tactic calling his opponent animal. >> we have a horrific case study where that leads on january 6th. we have to point out exactly while the former president was calling nancy pelosi an animal. she was doing her first interview on cnn. take politics out of it. anyone with an ounce of humanity, a soul, anybody who was raised well had to be moved by a woman talking about her husband of almost 60 years, an 82-year-old man what that was like for her to have a knock on her door in washington at 5:30 in the morning by someone saying where's nancy? >> for me this is really the hard part because paul was not the target and he's the one who is paying the price. i mean, we all are, but he's the one who is really paying the price, but it really -- it's

really sad because it is a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all the rest of that which is most unfortunate, and it has no place in our democracy. >> president biden drew a line between what happened on january 6th and the attack on your husband. the president said, i quote, the assailant entered the home asking "where's nancy? where's nancy?" those were the very same words that the mob used when they stormed. >> there's no question. the same thing. copycater, whatever it happens to be inflamed by the same misrepresentation, but the fact is right now it's time for healing. we want the country to heal. this is not a path that we can continue on. i was sleeping in washington, d.c. i had just gotten in the night before from san francisco, and

the -- i hear the door bell ring and think, it's five something -- i look up -- it must be the wrong apartment it rings again and then bang, bang, bang, bang, bang on the door, so i run to the door and i see capitol police and they say we have to come in to talk to you, and i'm thinking my children, my grandchildren. i never thought it would be paul because, you know, i knew he wouldn't be out and about, i would say -- they came in at that time. we didn't even know where he was or what his condition was. we just knew there was an assault on him in our home. >> it's worth watching the entire thing. you take politics out of it. disagree on politics or don't even like her personally and her husband was nearly murdered with a hammer inside their home and

then to go out and joke about that and laugh about it, there has to be a line or we don't have a society. >> and she talked about healing, but how can there be healing when you only have mitch mcconnell and one or two other republicans coming out condemning this without attaching a joke? >> our next guest may have an answer to that question. we'll speak with the former cia officer who says the gop needs a counter radicalization strategy. that conversation is next on "morning joe." myself in a photo. and we were all smiling, and i looked closer, and i was like that- that's what everybody sees? i'm back, and i got botox® cosmetic. the lines were so prominent it's all i saw in the photograph, so now when i take photos, and i see myself in photos,

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♪ ♪ ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪ well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest.

i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ let's bring in right now former cia officer mark polymoropoulos. he's out with a new piece for

nbc news titled the gop needs a counter radicalization strategy. >> perfect time for this conversation. >> great timing, mark, but for different degrees. there are people who are ready to launch a civil war and there are people who live quietly in neighborhoods who again have dehumanized their political opponents and i suspect it's happened on both sides. i'm sure if -- if one of ted cruz's family members were attacked there would be people who didn't feel sympathy for ted cruz's family, as well. this is a problem. it is a much larger problem on the right because you would have every democratic leader criticizing that attack attack against -- i don't want to bring up his name again because that's sort of unfair -- any republican, right? right? >> right. >> and just a lack of humanity. but the difference is that

democrats would join hands with republicans and they would mourn the attack against the republican like they did with steve scalese. right now you have donald trump going around and kari lake going around mocking an 82-year-old man almost being killed by having his skull cracked. >> and getting wild applause. >> and getting wild applause for it. how do we deprogram -- why don't you just speak to those people who laughed and applauded when donald trump did that? >> sure, joe. you all hit the nail -- the head -- the nail right on the head. in the opening before -- >> you got that right. where do i go? you were in a cul-de-sac and had nowhere to go. go ahead. >> there is a demonization of political opponents, and it's

particularly prevalent on the republican side. you know, there's a normalization of violence and violent rhetoric, and that has to change. michael and i have talked about this on previous programs. the change has to come from within the republican party. you know, in my career at cii, i saw countries that had problems with radicalization and the change always came from within, and that's really important. we can sit here and talk about this all we want, but until the republican party admits there's a problem, nothing will change. look what happened last night with donald trump, calling nancy pelosi an animal. i mean, i was horrified. i wrote the piece for nbc, in the 24 hours after that, i was subject to all this kind of crazy right-wing hate, mail, and rhetoric, different cable network wrote a piece that i was advocating for cia terrorism measures to be used on conservatives. that's all crazy. >> hold on a second. what cable news network did that? >> it was fox.

fox came out with a piece that said i was advocating counterterrorism techniques to be used on conservatives. that's not what i said at all. >> who was the writer at fox news that said that? >> it was on fox digital and my phone blew up with all sorts of hail mail, which affirms my point that the republican party is not ready to admit there's a problem. it's okay to admit that because violence, as you said before, is against the foundation, the principles we all grow up with. they're not ready right now and the last 24 hours have shown it, certainly donald trump's comments l.a. night. >> michael, why aren't they ready? >> joe -- >> do they have to lose a couple more elections? what do they have to do? >> i don't even know if it's about -- for the establishment type, the remnants of that, the folks inside, and mark said we've talked about it, trying to noodle this through, i think we've gone beyond that. i think this is an infection that has run so deep.

it is years of frustration and anger, the remnants of the old southern white male strategy inside the gop to that goes back to the early and late '60s. there's a lot of stuff broiling inside here. the interesting thin for me was to watch how readily the leadership let go of it, let go of control of keeping the party aligned. you're a student of history. you know what happened when the john burchs rose their heads up inside the party in the late 50s and 60s. the leadership pushed back on it. we've een a bob dole and a john mccain, george bush sr., leaders stand up for the party and reorient its moorings around -- >> what about w. after 9/11? >> exactly. >> he said there is no place in america for anti-muslim rhetoric. >> and that does not happen today, because listen to what

republican leaders are already saying about ukraine. listen to what republican leaders have said about putin. so, the reality of it is something far worse inside the party has taken hold of it. and i don't know if an election clears that out. i think this runs deeper than, oh, yeah, we lost the house or didn't get the senate. there's something else going on there that's making it hard. and good republicans like yourself have said enough, crazy ones like me are, like, okay, keep the porch light on for just another day, but the reality of it is we're beyond that. i think mark's piece touches exactly on the thing we have to get at. coming up, live reporting from pennsylvania, florida, and wisconsin. plus, james carville joins the conversation. i suspect he has some thoughts about these races tonight. back in just a moment on "morning joe."

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welcome back to the fourth hour of "morning joe." a live look at the capitol. it is election day, 9:00 a.m. on the east coast and the polls are open on the east coast, 6:00 a.m. out west where polls in california and nevada open in just about one hour. control of congress -- >> a couple big races out there. >> oh, yes. >> you have the nevada senate race, an awful lot of races in arizona as well. the gubernatorial race in l.a. you've got the mayor's race. >> a lot closer than democrats would like that r