welcome back to the fourth hour of "morning joe." a live look at the capitol. it is election day, 9:00 a.m. on the east coast and the polls are open on the east coast, 6:00 a.m. out west where polls in california and nevada open in just about one hour. control of congress -- >> a couple big races out there. >> oh, yes. >> you have the nevada senate race, an awful lot of races in arizona as well. the gubernatorial race in l.a. you've got the mayor's race. >> a lot closer than democrats would like that race to be.

nevada, you have up and down the ballot some election deniers there, same goes for arizona. a lot at stake out west and across the country. >> nobody's going to sleep on the west coast tonight, back east, because, man, some of the most important races taking place. >> control of congress is up for grabs. republicans are favored to win the house, where they need a net gain of five seats. the smallest number of seats the out of power party has needed to flip the house since 1932. >> michael, let's put perspective on this again for our friends joining us on the west coast right now. in 2010, how many seats -- >> we picked up 63 house seats, which was the most the party picked up since 1928. >> and that was after barack obama had a massive landslide victory. >> right. >> bill clinton won in '92. 73 republicans get elected that year. and in 2018, you actually had,

when donald trump was president, democrats didn't do quite as well, but they had 40 seats. so it's going to be really interesting to see if republicans can at least get that 40-seat margin. >> what happens with the senate is anyone's guess. it's now a 50/50 split, meaning republicans need to pick up just one seat to win control. they must hold on to pennsylvania and wisconsin and flip either arizona, georgia, nevada, and new hampshire. democrats, on the other hand, need to hold on to those four states. if they lose just one, they need to flip either pennsylvania or wisconsin. a lot of shifting dynamics this midterm, many willie. >> early voting has outpaced the 2018 midterm elections and by a lot, by more than 5 million votes to this point. california more than 4.4 million americans voted early either by mail or in person. 51% were registered democrats, 27% registered republicans, 22%

were others. arizona, democrats lead that count by 2% with 1.4 million early votes cast. 24% of the voters were registered members of another party. in nevada, 39% of the early votes were registered democrats, 37% registered republicans, nearly one-quarter call themselves something else politically. let's bring in our nbc news reporters following the key battleground races. mora barrett is in pennsylvania, kerry sanders is in florida, and shaquille brewster is in wisconsin for us. we'll start with mora in pennsylvania. the polls have opened there. i understand lawsuits already have been filed. what can you tell us? >> reporter: guys, it's impossible to forget the deluge of lawsuits we saw in pennsylvania back in 2020. it's ooh safe to say we're expecting more, but this one just filed yesterday, the day before the election, democrats arguing they want to see mail-in

ballots with incorrect data or undated ballots, they want to make sure those are counted. for context, last week the supreme court ruled on a challenge about whether mail-in ballots that were sent in with incorrect dates or undated war federal violation. the court was evenly divided on this and recommend they set aside those ballots and not count them right now. then they said you can reach out to voters to let them know there might be a mistake on their ballot. give them an opportunity to fix them. that's hammed in several counties across the state, but this is something organizations like the aclu are arguing could disenfranchise certain voter groups. reality is we all remember how tight pennsylvania can be. this could be a couple thousand wrongly dated ballots that could influence the election. remember back in 2016 and 2020, the decision came down to less than 1% of the voting population. so these mail-in ballots really

could matter. while all of this is going on on the mail-in side, voters are voting in person. the democratic candidate for governor, josh shapiro, just voting behind me here. we were talking to voters in the suburban county of philadelphia, montgomery county. it is one reason pennsylvania is the purple state it is. here are some i spoke to. a democrat and a republican. >> i think it truly is sad on both sides, republican and democrat sides, about how much misinformation they put in all the ads that come across the tv. i just think unless you read and you go back and read people's policies and what they stand for, you can't follow those commercials. it's just out of control. >> this could be one of the last times you actually get to vote in an election the way we've been used to for so long. there are so many conspiracy theories, trying to figure out

ways to overturn the will of the people. i figured, you know what, i'm not going to give up my last opportunity. >> reporter: lisa, that republican voter you heard from there is concerned about the economy, gas prices, she wasn't a fan of seeing the school lockdowns during the pandemic, and she told me while she wasn't as much of a fan of dr. oz, the republican senate candidate here, she is a big fan of doug mastriano and voted red down the ticket. she thought he was a better choice than fetterman. scott, the democratic voter, outside of threats to democracy, he's very concerned about women's rights. that senate race between fetterman and oz in a statistical dead heat. voters over the last few days i've been speaking to on both sides of the aisle very anxious, on the edge of their seats. willie? >> just getting news from philadelphia as well that the commissioners there have voted to implement a vote counting mechanism that's going to take even longer. so we have to be patient as we

watch for results out of the state of pennsylvania. mora barrett, thanks so much. down to florida. nbc news correspondent kerry sanders is live just outside orlando covering the senate and governor races. kerry, good morning. what does it look like there today? >> reporter: well, we've seen a steady arrival of voters, but it hasn't been long lines. we're here for a specific reason. in 1887, this was one of the first municipalities in the country that became a self-governing black community. and in this race in florida, specifically in the race for the u.s. senate, val demings, a former black police chief in orlando, about six miles from where i am, will rely heavily on the african american vote if she is going to make some headway against the incumbent republican, marco rubio. in florida, at 13% of the electorate is african american. then there is 18% which is

hispanic. as we have seen, the republican party has made incredible inroads with what have been traditionally democratic voters inside the hispanic community. and i think there's a little bit of a picture here of some hope that those who got mail-in ballots but never sent them in will actually show up to the polls. when you look at the numbers here of people who requested mail-in ba lots and have not returned them, this is as of 8:15 this morning, 39%, almost 40% of democrats who requested mail-in ballots have not returned them yet. the postal service would have to get them in by 7:00 p.m. today. the republicans, 33.47%. in total, there were more than 4 million ballots that were requested for -- even people in the nonpolitical associated parties, republicans, democrats, but the raw number for democrats is 747,000-plus mail-in ballots.

so the hope among the democrats and val demings is that those voter who is never got around to sending in their ballots will do so. i spoke to a voter today. she was one of them. she said i had it, i meant to do it, life got away from me, but i was going to make sure i came down today. i asked her whether she thought others that she's been in touch with will do the same, and she said, "i hope so." >> kerry sanders live in florida. thanks so much. on now to wisconsin. nbc news correspondent shaquille brewster is there live at a polling location in milwaukee. shaq, good morning. what are you seeing there? >> good morning, willie. polls just opened about an hour ago. we've seen a steady flow of people at this polling location in milwaukee as voters really decide on some key marquee races across the state of wisconsin. start with that gubernatorial race. this is one of the most expensive gubernatorial races in the country, the most expensive race in wisconsin's state

history with some huge national implications. the fight between governor tony evers, a democrat, and democrat tim michels, is republican, is tied. the latest polls show things are tied and it's a toss-up. that's what you're hearing from both campaigns. the national implications of that race go beyond the voting laws in this state where the republican legislature passed a slew of voting laws that tony evers has blocked but also goes to abortion rights in this state where, since the overturning of roe, access to abortion has been all but restricted and eliminated, i should say. there's also the senate race. this is a race between senator ron johnson, republican, and democrat lieutenant governor mandela barnes. this is a race that democrats in the early phases of this campaign felt that they had some momentum going into. they thought this was a key pickup opportunity in the 50/50 senate, but senator ron johnson coming into election day has

secured a tight, narrow, but consistent lead in the polls. among the democratic voters that i've been talking to at this polling location here in the key population center for the party, there's some anxiety, there's some tension, but there's also a sense of fight. listen to twha they've been telling you. >> i grew up in the vietnam war era, and i saw divisiveness then. but we came together for common understanding and community. and i'm seeing such uncivil behavior and it breaks my heart. >> any issue, deciding between the candidates, any issues top of mind for you? >> number one, the january 6th insurrection, which ron johnson supported. really also reproductive health care, which ron johnson and mick -- michels are against. the constitution.

a couple of those issues. >>. >> reporter: more than 700,000 people have cast a ballot. looking at 2020, 2018, 2016, the nation ral race, the margins came down between 20,000 and 30,000 votes. it all depends on what happens today, willie. >> shaquille brewster in milwaukee for us, watching wisconsin very closely. shaq, thanks so much. those are races on the east coast. also a close eye in new hampshire, not the east coast, but early polling closings, new hampshire could be interesting, perhaps a bellwether for democrats. >> i think if you won a race that everybody will be looking at early because new hampshire is same-day voting, people will be looking there. democrats win, hasan wins by three or four points, they'll

say, okay, it's going in the right direction. if that race is tight or she's behind, katie bar the door, baby. long night for democrats. >> two states in particular the democrats had big leads evaporate in the last couple week, arizona and new hampshire. we'll know sooner about new hampshire than arizona. it's also raised questions about democratic strategy and promoting election deniers. they have put money behind this senate candidate. >> that hurts. >> easier to beat in monica novotny. now that's seemingly backfired. if the margin is closer than three or four points or he wins, that will be a decision we second gegszed for eternity. >> co-host of "the politics war room" podcast, james carville. good to have you back. >> what are you doing? what are you doing, man? come on. let me tell you something -- >> what's he doing? >> -- i was cool with tennessee beating us, right?

it's great that the vols are back. i hated them when they beat us all the time. great they're back. but i can't ever get over lsu beating us, especially at the last second. what a game that was, james. what a game. >> you know, coach saban was great. he was like alabama fans. they don't understand trying to beat us too. people forget when you have a contest, a political contest, athletic contest, the other side is trying. >> exactly. so, james, we don't know what's going to happen today. i'm already hearing reports democrats are feeling pretty good in some places. a republican senate candidate who's supposed to win easily. i'm hearing he's very concerned, especially in the suburbs, that they may be breaking against republicans. we don't know who's going to win. >> yeah. >> that said, looking ahead to

'24, what can democrats learn about how they ran the campaign, regardless of outcome, how they ran their campaigns in '22? >> well, you're right. one thing that drives me nuts, more people think if the democrats have power they will defund the police, which is not true, that people who are voting today that think if the republicans get control of congress, they'll shut the government down to focus on social security and medicare, which is demonstrably true. so, i would criticize democratic messaging and the media for letting people go to the polls with massive misunderstanding of the consequences they are voting on. i think that regardless of what happens tonight, we have to focus more on the 2024 cycle. >> who do you think has been the most effective democratic

messenger this cycle? shapiro? >> shapiro is doing something that -- he is tackling the crime issue of which i begged democrats to do. joe knows in the spring of to 2021 but i was told the ford foundation would not allow us to do that. i don't know where the ford foundation got veto power over democratic messaging. >> let's talk about shapiro for a second. pennsylvania. democrats have said why are we talking about inflation and crime and democracy? it's on the ballot. >> governor. >> it's amazing, isn't it, james, that the gubernatorial candidate in pennsylvania has figured out how to talk about all three things at the same time? >> yes. to some extent, it's an

expression of democracy at least. apparently they're going to be voting -- the early vote, i don't know what they extrapolate from that. i don't know if anybody else does. but 2018 was historically high and this is on pace to be higher, which may throw all the polls off. >> james, what are you looking at tonight? we don't want to make any wild guesses, but informed ones. what do you expect to see, house and senate? >> well, i don't know, to be honest with you. i'm not an election predictor. but i'm going to be just like y'all, looking at new hampshire, obviously. probably maine too. virginia 7, virginia 2. we'll get an early sense of direction. >> michael steele. >> in from one crusty old paw to another, you and i have been in green rooms and campaigns over the years.

what is it about this cycle that has made it even more unpredictable? i mean, because voters -- everyone is sitting there saying the polls are this or that. but at the end of the day, the voters have been sending i think an interesting signal when it comes to the democracy question, which was number six on your bingo card six weeks ago, eight weeks ago, now number one. the economy for sure. what are the dynamics that you think that make tonight that much more opportunistic for democrats, if you will, or even for republicans? >> well, governor, the fact of the matter is when you have this turnout apparently the highest since 1912 since women gained the right to vote, when you have this kind of turnout it would make any -- i'm not an election predictor, but it would make anybody skittish about such certain assumptions. that's the first trademark of this that i see going into

election day. now maybe the turnout will be more suppressed during the day, but it's ripping and running. it ripped and ran in 2020. i think the feature of our american electoral system in the last four years has been massive high turnout, i mean, unprecedentedly massive high turnout. but what the consequences of that are i don't know, because i haven't seen it before and neither has anybody unless you were born in 1912, which maybe i'm close to. >> just curious what you think about the gubernatorial race in arizona and kari lake's campaign. >> from everything that i read about it, it's very distressing. i mean, she's very nutty, very out there, and people have expressed some -- i don't know miss hobbs at all, but people have expressed disappointment

about the campaign. >> let's bring in nbc news senior national political reporter sahil kapur. you're looking at key races to watch once polls close tonight that could be bellwethers for what's to come. we touched on those. what do you have? >> that's right, mika. election day is here and there are some races that election m people say will give us an early indication of where the night is headed. indiana closes at 7:00 p.m. there's a district in the northwest around gary where frank mrvan is running. he should be okay but if not, that could be an indicator of a good night for republicans. in three virginia, there are three democratic women in different districts. elaine luria. you might know her from the january 6th committee. she got shuffled into a republican-leaning district and if survives could be a good night for the democrats, they might even hold the house.

abigail spanberger between the suburbs of alexandria and richmond is in a slightly democratic district but only by about a point or so. that's the kind of district that republicans need to top fl they are to have a good shot at the house majority. loudoun county, if democrats lose this, it's a shine of a huge red day. she is certainly and heavily favored. a couple senate races, polls close at 7:30 in ohio and north carolina. these are difficult states for democrats in a tough year like this, ohio in particular, a red state where tim ryan is overperforming. democrat doswell in those states, it could be an indicator they're performing their marks and could uphold control of the senate. finally, new hampshire. you've been talking about this. this is fascinating. it's the earliest of the most competitive senate races to close, closing at 8:00 p.m. maggie hassan is favored against donald bolduc who has claims of

election denial. if she loses, democrats will have a very difficult shot holding control of the senate because what comes next are tougher states for democrats like georgia, where i am right now, arizona. those will be very hard to hold on to if a purple, bluish, light-blue state like new hampshire ends up falling. finally in henao hn, there's the second congressional district. ann custer, the democratic congresswoman, is fighting to hold on there. she's in a district that slightly favors her party and she should be able to hold on to. if she loses to robert burns, indicator that republicans are having a big night. >> sahil kapur, thank you very much. jonathan lemire. >> james, joe mentioned 2024 and lessons the democrats could learn from it. we have speculation about who the candidates might be as well. donald trump teased last night saying next week he has a big announcement, interpreting that he'll jump in. biden family discussions will start around thanksgiving about

whether he will seek another term. give us your sense as to how the results we get in the next couple days will shape that potential race and those candidates' decisions. >> in new orleans, we talk about the next meal as we're eating the current meal. >> oh, my gosh. >> i'll just say something kind of predictable and conventional -- it depends on the results. if we do poorly, then there will be people that will seriously question our messaging. so i'm just going to enjoy my lunch and then i'll think about dinner after. >> james carville. >> the yankees thing. that's the yankees thing. >> there you go. >> okay. thanks for wearing that shirt. james carville, thank you very much. we appreciate you being on. all right. still ahead on "morning joe,"

the ceo of the social media giant that president biden says, quote, spews lies is encouraging independents to vote today. >> oh, that's great. >> for republicans. >> i wonder what would happen if mark zuckerberg had suggested two years ago that, i don't know, debt independents vote fo democrats. by the way, andrew ross sorkin asked that question last hour. think about the weeping and the gnashing of teeth. >> elon musk is doing that. andrew ross sorkin will join us in just a moment with the latest on all things elon as well as how today's midterm elections could affect the markets. you're watching "morning joe."

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it is election day 2022. welcome back to "morning joe." 28 past the hour. twitter's ceo elon musk wants people to vote republican today. in a tweet yesterday, he wrote, "to independent-minded voters: shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties. therefore, i recommend voting for a republican congress, given that the presidency is democratic." >> co-anchor of cnbc's "squawk box," andrew ross sorkin. andrew, divided government, the argument, works, like, fantastic. i've made the argument before myself. but you brought up a great point when we were talking earlier today. you said imagine if mark zuckerberg -- >> right. >> -- had told independents to

vote democratic two years ago. they literal would have dragged him in front of every committee and suggested that they take over facebook. >> 100%. though i will say after we had that conversation, i got a number of tweets from elon musk fan who is said the difference is that mark zuckerberg would have done that in private, wouldn't have said it, but would have controlled things behind. this was the transparent version of it. i don't know -- i don't know what version it's supposed to be. >> the truth is -- like why is he doing this? michael jordan got in trouble when he said republicans buy basketball shoes too, sneakers too. elon musk, does he not -- >> look, at a time when advertisers are suspending purchases of advertising or fleeing the platform, he wants an independent platform, saying

this explicitly, eechb if this is his view -- and this has been his view, it's not new, but to say it on the each of the midterms i think raises lots of what he really wants. the second piece of it is i don't think, i could be wrong about this, you know, in '24 if, in fact, you know, the presidency is controlled by a republican, he'll then say i want the house and the congress -- >> right. >> i don't know. i kind of doubt it. kind of doubt it. >> not feeling it. >> listen, i should know. when i saw his picture, i said was he on "american idol"? i understand. >> close. "shark tank." big investor. >> a really big deal and investor which tells you how ignorant i am. i saw him i said, i think this guy was on "american idol." chris sacca. could have been on "american idol" but has a fantastic

thread. his conclusion is he respects musk so much, the guy may have the greatest mind of our time, but he says he's isolated, surrounded by sycophants, and is headed for disaster. >> i the all of that is true. i don't know if it's headed for disaster, but he's definitely surrounded by yes-men. i think there are very few people around him that are not saying yes to him. that's how he's operated the whole business when he was at tesla, how he's operated the business for spacex. the distinction with twitter, we talked about it the other day, it's a human being business, a business that to some degree is about democracy, right? by the way, hicks thinks it's a town square. living in a universe that is an echo chamber, that is a problem. >> that is. >> anybody have a question for andrew? >> how long can twitter hemorrhage this much money? >> that's a very good question.

he says he's losing $4 million a day. he will have a debt payment coming due in april 2023, about $500 million. look, that's -- it's not pocket change for him. that's pocket lint for him. you know, he can sell -- by the way, there's pressure on his tesla shares because think he might have to sell those shares. he doesn't own 100% of twitter privately himself. he has other investors. mark andreessen -- and there are pension funds in this thing. are they going to continue to put up money? he does have to staunch these losses, otherwise he may have to go to others. larry ellison gave him a billion dollars, yeah, yeah, i know, i'll give you more. >> mark andreessen, best and brightest in silicon valley, like the guy that everybody listens to. could somebody with that much influence pick up the phone and say, hey, elon, let's talk?

>> cut it out? yes. >> that's got to be happening. >> i would tell you i think mark andreessen is relatively politically aligned with where elon is. mark has always considered himself l somewhat of a libertarian. when he was on the board of facebook, he was not somebody who was necessarily standing up to mark zuckerberg. i think, you know, one of the things that venture capitalists like mark andreessen do is they support the entrepreneur. that's the entire mandate. it's not to say no. it's to say yes. >> you trust the guy. you pick the guy. >> i'm going to go back to the human capital piece on this twitter thing because at the end of the day we're now seeing in order to get verified you have to pay 8 bucks to get verified. >> right. >> so anybody can be anything. what is the human impact? how many people do you see leaving? how many people do you see coming back on? does it balance itself out? >> he just released it on

twitter, assuming you believe it, he says there are more people that have come to twitter in the last i think seven to ten days since he took over the platform -- >> but aren't those the people who got kicked off twitter because they were racists and -- >> some of that may be the case. it also appears, again, based on the numbers, there's a huge international community that's come on board. look, he does have his following. there's a pied piper element to him. that's why the politics of this are so interesting, especially because there's whole millennial generation that follows what musk does and what he says. if he says vote a republican, there may be a generation between 20 and 30 years old saying that guy is a smart guy, i'm going to do what he says. >> he may be lost, on his own, but he will not stop trolling or put things out that he knows draw a reaction. >> get off twitter? he just bought the thing. >> constantly tweeting. he won't stop.

how is he running tesla or space next. >> those are great questions and i think it goes back to what joe was saying yesterday, right? i mean, it's great for tesla and spacex, what is he doing working on these -- >> every tweet causes chaos? >> what is he doing? >> i don't know the answer. and the truth is, and again, we talked about this yesterday, he said he thinks twitter is going to somehow take him less time long term to manage, he'll figure it out, hand it over to a manager and just go. i think it's the opposite. >> twitter is -- and we love the cesspool, it's such a cesspool. >> no. >> it is. >> it is a cesspool and it always has been. but we hope that it's a better run cesspool. but, again, that's a lifetime job. this guy has real jobs on the side. again, i don't understand -- >> jack dorsey had multiple

jobs, tried to manage it. i think you need to be focused on this thing to get it to where you want it to go. >> yeah. >> and i for one, by the way, i'm rooting for it, meaning i want it to succeed. i don't know what success looks like. but there could be a town square where people could not get in the mud and you could have a respectful conversation and -- >> that's not twitter. >> not twitter. >> i stopped twitter before elon musk. >> i bought a lottery ticket last night. a man can dream. >> i'm with you. by the way, if he can't make it better, i think we'll be just fine. like, people that are freaking out about twitter -- >> they'll go someplace else. >> i think it hurts our democracy. >> honey, that's what you said about myspace when that first came on. >> i did not. i said it's part of the very uncivil problem that we have right now in our politics. i don't wish it well at all,

actually. >> to your point, mika, it's not the platforms, it's still the people. >> yeah. >> because the pollution comes from what we put out there. >> cnbc's andrew ross sorkin, please come back. >> weird people. >> thank you. >> see you tomorrow morning. >> look at him. we'll read some must-read opinion pages when "morning joe" returns. we'll be right back.

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jd vance. jd vance doesn't -- he does not care about the future of rural ohio. and so we have to continue to fight him. >> congressman tim ryan with his closing arguments on tonight's last word. thank you very much. >> we're going to bring it home, lawrence. >> got you. >> we'll bring it home. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. >> congressman tim ryan with a well-earned beer to close out his hard-fought campaign for u.s. senate in ohio. >> he was v he's run a perfect campaign, he has. just one mistake.

>> what's the mistake? >> drink the beer. >> got to chug it. >> always drink it. >> reagan, '84. he's in trouble. he's had a bad debate. goes to boston i think. goes in a pub, holds up the beer, takes a drink, and everybody said that guy's going to win 49 states. >> a few minutes ago james carville credited ryan with having the strongest message of any democrat this cycle despite little support from the national party. >> anybody have any answers? why didn't they send money? >> for a long time they were wrote off as a red state. trump has won it a couple times. but he's run such a good race, a mode l for going forward, they may live to regret if he loses by two, three points. >> what about the contrast of democrats won't fight in ohio, but in new york state they're

fighting for lee zeldin? >> yes. >> republicans will come and fight in uncharted territory, but democrats just -- >> it reminds me of 2010. there were so many races across the country, federal and state, that the national intelligentsia wrote off. we're not putting money many that race. if you don't understand the ground and what's on the ground and how voters are feeling, like we were just talking about off air, then you're going to miss that moment. and the dems made presumptions about ohio because it's ohio, it's red. but at the end of the day, you have to listen to what the people are telling you when you have a candidate that makes that connection with them. you ride into that. you to dent lean away from it. that's arizona and the messaging there. >> joe biden would seem to be a perfect democrat designed to compete in ohio even in 2020, he didn't, because they thought it was out of reach until the last day, showed up once, ended up losing by a lot anyway. the party made a decision that

ohio is not worth it. but democrat vbs on defense this entire cycle, making very few forays aggressively into republican states with the exception of pennsylvania. >> time for a couple of must-read opinion pages. the editorial board of the "pittsburgh post-gazette" writes a piece entitled, "if you haven't already, exercise your say red right to vote tuesday. money, power, connections, education, and other forms of influence are vastly unequal in the united states. but the voting power of the poorest person equals that of the wealthiest and most privileged." "the principle of one person, one vote represents equality under the law, a central tenet of democracy. the system is flawed and needs changes. still, we've come a long way from the nation's founding when only white men with property, and not all of them, could vote. we best honor those who sacrificed to expand voting rights to all by exercising those sacred rights on tuesday." in other words, vote.

"new york times" columnist jamel buoy has a piece entitled "no one forced republicans to do any of these things," and writes in part, "many, too many, political observers speak as if republican leaders and officials had no choice but to accept donald trump into the fold. but that's nonsense. for all the pressures of the base, for all of the fear of trump and his gift for ridicule, for all the demands of the donor class, it is also true that at every turn republicans in washington and elsewhere have made an active and affirmative choice to embrace the worst elements of their party -- and jetson the norms and values that make democracy work -- for the sake of the narrow political and ideological objectives. led by donald trump and his many acolytes, the republican party is poised to plunge this country into political and constitutional crisis over its

refusal to share power or acknowledge defeat. we can treat this as some kind of an inevitability, the only possible outcome given the pieces at play, or we can treat it as what it is -- a deliberate choice." >> let's go back to that moment after january 6th. >> i was just going to say that. >> and what happens? trump is being condemned roundly by the entire republican party, and kevin mike evan decides to go to mar-a-lago. >> senators, congressmen and women, whose lives were in danger that day, lindsey graham goes to the floor, that's it, done with donald trump, gets chased through the airport. hound dog. chased him and started yelling at him, called him a traitor. he backed off. kevin mccarthy put his finger in the wind and said a bunch of republicans are still with trump despite january 6th. flies to mar-a-lago.

makes sure he gets a photograph. posts it up there. donald trump is back in game. they did have a choice. >> let me ask you guys a question. does anybody want -- because i'm good without doing it -- does anybody want some anecdotal evidence from the campaign trail so far? >> from today? >> yeah. i just got to say now, it's always wrong. when i was campaigning, i listened to anecdotal evidence and it usually added up. but all of it is wrong because they had people at 6:45 on election night in 2016 tell me hillary was going to win. i will say two things i'm hearing right now are republicans are not doing as well in the suburbs as they'd like, and i'm not sure how they know this, but i'm hearing from another source that undecideds

are not breaking as hard for republicans as they expected. what does this mean? absolutely nothing. but we'll see. i will say -- and again, you never want to make a prediction because i'm old enough to know they're always wrong. >> right. >> i just felt this election would be a complete republican blowout but i've been through enough of these, and it just didn't feel that way to me. like i said before, i think there are a lot of crosscurrents. >> i happen to agree with you, joe. i've been in that space for about three months now. simon rosenberg and i, a well-regarded democratic pollster, and i talked about some of his analysis of this and what he's seeing beneath the surface. its go back to what we were talking about before, is that there are voters out there that just aren't tapped into this polling process. they're not tapped in a way that we have a fuller sense, an appreciation of where the electorate is.

so it's not surprising to me that you're hearing anecdotally what the professionals are sort of gathering as they're talking to voters through exit polling, talking to voters going into the polls, and they're talking to voter whors about to go vote. they're now beginning to see something very different from what they've been putting out there beforehand. the second piece i think, you need to sit back, take another sip of the coffee, and chill. republicans flooded the zone for the last two weeks with a lot of bogus polls to sort of game the system a little bit, putting stuff out there that shows them in some races, sitting there going how is this guy up by seven points when he was down by three, you know? the reality of it is the voters now have control of this, to your point, joe, but thepoint, joe, but the antidote you are hearing are closer to what may be going on today than what we have seen up to now. i think that's something where you should pace yourself, get through the day and it will be okay. coming up, a shift and

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until i found some information. birth certificate. wow. and then you add it to the tree. it's like you discover a new family member. it's the greatest gift. now on sale at ancestry. you got one day until one of the most important elections. you heard this time and again and i almost feel guilty repeating it. our lifetimes will be shaped in what happens to the next year to three years, and shaped in the next decade, it looks like, for real. and this is not a referendum, it's a choice between two different visions of america. >> what was our new slogan? i can't remember. >> we coined it. "morning joe," all of this is

wrong. let's move on with it. >> okay. joining us now, pollster, frank luntz and go founder and ceo of all in it together, lauren leaders joins us. >> lauren, the question is, really, are young voters going to get out today? >> women? >> are women going to make a difference? what are you looking at? >> i think the early voting tallies are exciting and in 2020 people got the message about turnout and we are seeing it. we are going to see record numbers. there was concern early on that maybe they would not be as high as some of the record turnout elections, and i think they will be and this is an election people are paying attention to. >> frank, what are you looking at today? >> districts with hispanics. i am expecting the republicans

to get 40 to 45% this time, and that could impact a couple senate races and a half a dozen house races. >> lauren, there has been a remarkable shift. hispanics are moving more toward the republican party, and white suburban women are moving toward the democratic party. we are seeing this move, this migration politically of two groups. >> all right. but it's pry primarily it's latino men. and i do think, look, i think -- it's not just about the suburbs, it's the independent women and democrats have really held their own with independent women. "wall street journal" poll not withstanding i think it was overstated. the turnout numbers, when we look at the early voting, all the models show it's heavily driven by women and by a lot of those folks that registered this

summer, you know, since the dobbs decision. this is where i agree with michael about some of the polls. there has been a lot of republican leaning, i think, skewed and not exactly accurate polling, and "the wall street journal" poll, it was 150 women, a tiny poll. let's not overstate it. turnout is everything and turnout tends to be driven by women. >> frank, you are looking at undecided voters today breaking republicans, and what difference will that make today? >> it's a small percentage of americans who are undecided in this election. the truth is everybody has chosen their sides, and it's of the 5% coming in today, and they are breaking 2 to 1 republican. there are going to be a dozen house congressional seats decided by 5,000 votes or less, and when you break 2 to 1, that ends up being half of those end up being republican.

an early vote and vote on election day is the same thing, and they matter the same amount, so don't count your votes before they are hatched. looks like a trend towards the gop at this point. >> frank, we have been talking about arizona this morning, kari lake yesterday, just conspiracy theories about stolen elections. are we overstating the fact that she is that -- that sort of talk is a threat to democracy? >> you are not overstating and i encourage you to do it on both sides. look, in life there are winners and losers. you dust yourself off and get back up and get on the horse and try again. i hate this election denial because it undercuts not just our election system, it undercuts how we are supposed to live our lives. you accept when you go into politics there are winners and losers, and be an adult and set a good example for your children

and accept your loss and move on. >> amen to that. >> a little viewers guide in our final moments. the polls close tonight and we will be up late out west and where are you going to be watching? >> i think there's congressional bellwether places around the country that you may not accept, and i am watching the race in colorado, and i think lauren boebert could -- >> she is the one that said if jesus had an ar-15, he would not have been crucified. >> yeah, and women are going to be driving this election as they have every election since 1980, and they will be the deciders. that's what i am watching. >> thank you both very much for being on this morning. that does it for us on this