on. >> amen to that. >> a little viewers guide in our final moments. the polls close tonight and we will be up late out west and where are you going to be watching? >> i think there's congressional bellwether places around the country that you may not accept, and i am watching the race in colorado, and i think lauren boebert could -- >> she is the one that said if jesus had an ar-15, he would not have been crucified. >> yeah, and women are going to be driving this election as they have every election since 1980, and they will be the deciders. that's what i am watching. >> thank you both very much for being on this morning. that does it for us on this

election day. we will be back -- >> everything -- what, willie? >> all of this is wrong. >> tomorrow morning we will have it right. a special show before a live studio audience and we will break down the results and the races that will likely still hang in the balance. we will also have some very special guests. that's at 6:00 a.m. eastern time right here on msnbc. josé diaz-balart picks up the coverage right now. good morning. 10:00 a.m. eastern, 7:00 a.m. pacific. i am josé diaz-balart from new york. today election day. polls are open in most of the country with polling places just opening in california and nevada. voters are making decisions in races that will determine the balance of power not only in the nation's capital, but in states, towns and cities across the country. when it comes to congress all 435 seats in the house of representatives are up for election and 35 senate seats.

and republicans need to pick up five house seats and one senate seat to take control on capitol hill. and election day is to bring to an end what is most likely the most expensive campaign ever. federal and state candidates and outside groups spent nearly $17 billion. we are following close races in several key states including pennsylvania, georgia, arizona, and some races are so close it could take days or even weeks to determine the winner. let's bring in our nbc news reporters closely following the races on the ground, and stephanie gosk is in pennsylvania, and vaughn hilliard is in paradise valley, arizona. what are the closing messages in the governor's race in arizona look like? >> reporter: kari lake is the leading character for election denialism in the country, josé,

and that's why we're watching this so closely, and she's perhaps donald trump's favorite candidate in 2022, and just down the road last night she perpetuated the conspiracy theories that there have been stolen elections and she suggested she's worried about her own election for governor today, hedging her bets she could lose. when you are looking at polling it's a neck and neck race between her and democrat, katie hobbs. why we are looking at arizona extends beyond kari lake. here in the state of arizona, in order to certify the presidential election in 2024 it will require the signatures of not only the governor but the secretary of state and attorney general, and both republican nominees are election deniers, and masters, he was campaigning with these characters, including alongside steve bannon.

and in contrast, kelly was with two of mccain's sons. and then how are voters in montgomery county going? >> reporter: it was critical to pushing president biden over the top in 2020, this suburban vote. it definitely goes blue and he increased the margins from 2016. people were lined up since 7:00 a.m., and we have competing desks, republicans are here, and the democrats got the shade this morning so they are unlucky, and this is such a critical part of this pennsylvania vote. it will depend on whether the enthusiasm that was here in 2020, does that carry over into this mid-term election? there are signs that it does not. you have that incredibly close

senate race with fetterman and mehmet oz, and then you have shapiro, the democrat who is running with a sizeable lead over the republican, doug mastriano. that shows a split. one of the things we will look for today is those voters that vote republican for the senate seat and democrat for the governor's seat. it's unique, josé. >> stephanie, all of this as a new legal fight erupted in pennsylvania for mail-in ballots? >> yeah, that's right. we are going to be looking at pennsylvania, if you remember during the presidential election, it took days to get that counted. this morning, fetterman, what you have is his campaign along with the democrats suing the pennsylvania election officials over mail-in ballots, and the supreme quart took mail-in

ballots that had no date or the wrong date on the back of the ballot, and they say those mail-in ballots have to be put aside. and fetterman says those votes should be counted, and that date is the kind of arbitrary control put on the mail-in ballot. the republicans are fighting it. it's a tight race for senator, and those votes could matter down the road, josé. >> gabe, what are you hearing from voters in georgia? >> hi, there, josé. good morning. there were long lines this morning this morning, and the line eased now, and all eyes on this senate and gubernatorial race, and 2.5 million people have already voted and several dozen lining up at the polls as they opened at 7:00 a.m., and

the incumbent senator, raphael warnock calling the challenger, football legend, herschel walker, unfit for office and a pathological liar. walker denning allegations that he paid for two women's abortions, and he's trying to link warnock to president biden and what he says as failed economic policies and rising inflation, and we have been speaking to voters on the ground in georgia, and republicans say the economy is the top issue, and for the democrats, they cite reproductive rights and democracy. take a listen to some of the voters we spoke with. >> what is your top issue this morning? >> inflation. you go to the grocery store and you don't have -- you spend so much money in gas and i just feel sorry for people that don't have money to make a living. >> you blame president biden for that? >> oh, yes, i do, 100%. >> biden is doing a very good job working with the people

around him, and there's a lot of things happening in america right now and it's not necessarily the economy here, inflation is all around the globe, england, us, everywhere. >> reporter: of course, something to watch here in georgia is the split ticket voters, and there are some groups here including suburban women that may go for a republican candidate, kemp, but instead vote for the senate race voting for raphael warnock. and the possibility of a runoff election here in georgia. there's a third party candidate. if candidates don't reach the 50% threshold we could look at a runoff next month josé. >> thank you so much. the fetterman campaign lawsuit in pennsylvania is one of dozens of legal challenges filed so far in connection with the election. with me now, the president of

the leadership conference on civil and human rights. it's great seeing you. >> great to be with you, josé. >> the ap reports more than 100 lawsuits have already been filed. today is election day and more than 100 filed. is this unusual? >> it is unusual. there's always some litigation. that's not new in and of itself, and we have early voting and that has increased some of the litigation around making sure people can cast their ballot fairly, or people who are trying to gum up the works. some folks are trying to make sure they are oiling the machinery so it runs for voters and some try to stick bubble gum in it so it's not smooth, and the litigation is coming from pro democracy civil rights lawyers not looking to tell people who to tell for, and not representing a politician or

party, but working to make sure people can exercise their rights and cast their ballot. >> what does this tell us about what could happen once people go to the polls? i mean, california and nevada just opening right now. a couple minutes ago -- >> what i want people to understand, some of the litigation, we have been tracking 11 cases nine of which have been resolved protecting voters. people need to understand they will have the opportunity to vote, and if they have questions check with election administration officials about their absentee ballots. one of the cases that won in wisconsin, for example, was making sure people in the military were not denied the right to get their ballots counted. but that one, the judge did the right thing, followed the rule of law, and they will be

counted. the point is if you face long lines, stand in them. if you see anything that is interfering with your rights, report it, because the reality is there are lots of folks on the ground making sure that people can exercise their rights. >> let's talk to the people who are about to go or even listening to us and are in line, what do they -- so specifically, human to human, what does that mean if you are waiting in line and you see some irregularity or you are a victim of something, who do you go and see? >> first of all, you should have monitors at the polling site that you can report directly to. the department of justice has done something so important. it has sent out its own staff to many places to be monitors, so there are actually people there to enforce the law that can be contacted, but the election officials themselves -- >> the ones that are there. >> -- the ones that are there,

we have already seen this working where people can report and then it gets fixed. the other thing is make sure you are asking for a provisional ballot if you have any problems, because in many places, you can ask for that provisional ballot if somebody is challenging whether or not you can vote so you can still have something on the votes that could get counted. >> how does that work, the provisional ballot? when will that be counted if it's counted? >> every state is different so it's important important people to talk to their officials, and what it means is, if there's any doubt and any reason the poll worker won't let you cast your ballot, there's a way to fill out an affidavit about what your vote is so you can go back and correct the problem and it might still count. so it still gives you the opportunity to be counted. >> one of the most important

themes that a democracy needs to continue to survive is people participating in it and doing it freely, and those voices count and are counted. thank you. it's always great to see you. thank you for being with us this morning. >> thank you, josé. wonderful to be with you. stay with msnbc all day for complete coverage. tonight our special live coverage and analysis begins at 6:00 p.m. eastern. a late surge is putting a blue senate seat in jeopardy, and the sleeper race that could flip the balance of power, coming up. and then the most important county race today, miami-dade, florida. the big board is being shipped right in, i am seeing it and it's huge and high-tech. he will explain why, next. you're watching "josé diaz-balart reports."

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17 past the hour. now to florida where governor ron desantis is looking to make it back into office where he faces charlie crist, and marco rubio faces val demings. joining us from florida is kerry sanders. give us the big picture of what is at stake today in florida. >> reporter: well, when you look at the state of florida, one of the biggest questions, of course, is is in state going to have impact. we are here in eatonville, because this is -- well, this is among the first black incorporated communities in our country going back to 1887, and it's that african american vote that is so critical, especially to the democratic party here.

now, in florida the polls open at 7:00 this morning, and need to remind people, because when they close at 7:00, florida has two time zones, so as you take a look at the voters here in line, they pretty much thinned out now. the race that is getting perhaps the greatest attention in the state of florida right now is the race for the u.s. senator, so we have demings, who is an african american woman and she's trying to unseat marco rubio. she believes there's the support among not only the black community but the hispanic community that will have a significant impact. with 18% of the voters in florida hispanic, the republicans have made strong inroads with that hispanic vote, and when the totals come in today, that could look at things

in the future two years down the line. we know a lot of people voted early and that's probably why we don't see people in line to vote today, and a tremendous number of people decided to use the easy way, the mail-in ballot. when you look at who requested and returned the mail-in ballots, and those statistics tell a story, because those mail-in ballots need to be in today by 7:00 p.m. 39.72% have not been returned by democrats, and that's a tremendous number from democrats that have not been returned compared to the republicans, which is slightly less than 500,000. looking at the race and looking at val demings, it may come down to her name recognition was able

to take hold as opposed to being well known here in the orlando area. i am only six miles from where she was the police chief. and this is what one person had to say from the university of central florida. >> i think demings is a great candidate for the democrats, and she has a great resume, and she's very energetic and has an exciting personality, and she was not well known in the state of florida because she represented this orlando district so she was not well known in the south, so i think it has been difficult for her. these are also difficult circumstances for the democrats to be mounting a major state-wide campaign. >> reporter: one of the voters that i chatted here with in eatonville said she was completely aware of the challenge that faces val demings, and she said she and

others as african americans should get out and vote, and whether or not that is enough for val demings to have a victory or for marco rubio to continue to a third term, we won't know until this evening. >> axe yo reports that miami-dade county, once a democratic stronghold, will be the most important county to watch in the country. miami-dade has not reported for a republican governor since 2002 when it voted for jeb bush, and a gop victory in miami-dade would be a significant message for democrats across the country. here to help break this down, nbc news national political correspondent, steve kornacki, and also nbc national political reporter, mark fluid yo in atlanta.

>> one of the biggest to start with, 2.7 million people in a county that changed dramatically politically between 2016 and 2020. you are looking at the governor's race, desantis versus crist, and let's zoom in on miami-dade and look in 2020, this was the presidential result. donald trump getting within seven points. go back to 2016, totally different story. hillary clinton won miami-dade by basically 30 points. this was one of the most dramatic shifts away from the democrats towards the republicans in a big county we saw in the country, and a heavily hispanic county. one of the open questions for 2022, can the republicans take the gains they made in places like miami-dade in 2020? heavily hispanic areas, can they take those gains and cement them and expand them? that's one of the questions we will be watching. the votes in florida come in

quickly. it's one of those things in the 7:00 hour i will be watching closely is desantis, not just doing well, and does he have a chance of carrying miami-dade county in the senate race, and does marco rubio have a chance of carrying miami-dade county, and there's a congressional race, and i will zoom in on the house map here, and marie salazar, democrats have been targeting this, and this goes hands and hands with the story if republicans are continuing to build strength in miami-dade county, then salazar will have a good night. this is part of the national story line, the question we have coming in for 2022, about republicans inroads with hispanic voters and whether that's continuing and accelerating this year and

beyond. >> yeah, the 30 plus that hillary clinton got, and obama got the same amount in miami-dade, and it almost has been such a consistent strong democratic stronghold, excuse the repetition there, and then it did go to plus seven, but that is still significant. what is it that has been eroding for democrats? >> a massive change. we'll pull up the map from 2020. here's the florida map and trump won the state by more than three points. i remember watching the results come in, and 2016, it was a surprise when trump won in 2016 in a lot of places, but in 2016, where that surprise was coming from was a gulf coast north of tampa, and you were seeing through the roof republican numbers there at levels nobody was expecting and that's when you started to realize trump was going to win florida. i looked at the map as the results came in 2020, and when

we clicked miami-dade county and saw a single-digit race in a county with a quarter million people here, and trump cutting 20 points off the democratic margin, you knew it was over in florida at that point. >> what is happening and what has happened in miami-dade, and then the whole state of florida, things have changed? >> it's a story that you are seeing nationwide. one, outside of miami-dade, white voters, working class voters are increasingly shifting republican. hispanic voters are behaving like working class whites, and that accounts for a great amount of shift in miami-dade. we're talking hundreds of thousands of votes, to steve's point. steve talked about how in 2020 when we clicked on the map and we saw the early returns, and how biden was only up by single digits and that's how we knew they lost florida. you will see the same thing

tonight. in 2018 on election day morning, democrats were ahead in total early and absentee ballots casts in miami-dade county about 5% points over republicans. right now this morning republicans are up by a percentage point in miami-dade county, and this is a county where democrats outnumber republicans by tens of thousands. now, if we shift out, our focus out to the rest of the state, in 2018 on election day morning, the number of early and absentee ballots combined casts by democrats exceeded that of republicans by half a percentage point. today the republican ballots early and absentee casts exceed that of democrats by six percentage points. we are talking 315,000 vote advantage. just because a republican casts a ballot doesn't mean it's for a republican and vice versa, but it's a good way to measure the

intensity and right now that intensity is with the republicans. >> thank you both for being with us. speaking of florida, in florida, residents are bracing for another possible hurricane. the national hurricane center said tropical storm nicole is strengthening and is expected to approach the east coast of florida wednesday night and then move into southern georgia on thursday. we will keep a close watch on that. up next, we will go to wisconsin where hundreds of early votes are starting to be counted. you are watching josé diaz-balart this morning from new york. for instant relief that lasts up to 12 hours. vicks sinex targets congestion at the source, relieving nasal congestion and sinus pressure by reducing swelling in the sinuses. try vicks sinex. before we begin, i'd like to thank our sponsor, liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance,

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supply fuel for immune cells and sustain tissue health. ensure with twenty-five vitamins and minerals, and ensure complete with thirty grams of protein. 31 past the hour. another key race that could help decide control of the senate is in wisconsin. polls leading up to today have shown a razor-thin marvin between johnson and barnes. today marks the first time election workers can start to count the state's early votes and absentee ballots. joining us from a polling location in milwaukee, shaquille

brewster. >> reporter: i want to go in and let you see the polling location in milwaukee. milwaukee is an area where democrats are relying on success in this state. you mentioned the polling, neck and neck in the senate battle and governor battle, and the incumbent senator, ron johnson, come into election day with a consistent but narrow lead in those polls. for many of the democratic voters here today, they say they are trying to turn that anxiety into activism and voting. i want to show you what some of the voters had top of mind today. >> i am standing on the shoulders of my ancestors that fought and died as a black

person to advance the civil liberties of black people in america. >> i am feeling a little nervous. the polling data seems to be split. >> i am so excited to be voting in a mid-term, yes. >> is it normally like that? >> heavens, no, we have to drag them out to vote but there's an energy now. >> there's an energy. >> reporter: i will tell you, josé, before these doors opened, one thing you are seeing in the early voting data, votes in conservative areas are up, and also in democratic areas. you have razor-thin margins. >> thank you. coming up, south texas is in

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are in district 15. what are you hearing from voters there? >> reporter: yeah, josé, first let me talk to you about what we are seeing here today in mccallen. there's a line out the door at the polling location and tons of voters looking to make their voices heard on this election day, and what i am hearing from the republicans i have spoke to is messages on the economy and border, something that governor abbott and monica de la cruz have campaigned on. here are other conversations i have had today. is there anything you are worried about in the country right now? >> everything, and it's more the economy, okay. and how biden -- >> i am pro choice, so that's important for me and i want representatives to not take away women's rights.

>> for me security is number one. we don't have security, and we can't overlook our economy or anything else. >> i think being down here in the border, we are seeing firsthand what is happening and how we're changing america. >> reporter: josé, one conversation that i was really struck by was a woman, she's a teacher, marissa, she tells me education was her number one issue and abortion access, or abortion, i should say, her second issue. she told me she felt like god should lead in that decision and she voted for beto, and she said she feels like god should touch an individual's heart in deciding what they want to do when it comes to abortion, but it should not be a decision made by the governor. just a sense of how people are thinking about those issues. >> i was speaking last night to a couple different sources and a

democratic operative was telling me just like this person was telling me, just like there was a silent trump voter phenomenon, he said there could be a silent voter phenomenon with latino voters. abortion is not something you talk about publicly, you don't talk to a pollster about it in that community, and do you think there should be a silent abortion issue at the booth by latino voters? >> i do, josé. i think more than that the socialability bias we have seen in the past with poll something growing, and in the past folks might be -- in the unique climate we are in, this is a big part of why we are seeing such crazy polling, polling all over the place and a bunch of us are

saying i don't have as much faith in polls and i will wait for election night. it's folks not wanting to disclose what they are really thinking and feeling, abortion being a case in point. >> while former president clinton was in the region, and he eluded to democrats ignoring the area in the past, and he said if you send these three people to congress, you may never be ignored in the party but they may move everything down here. is this something that is too little too late, or could this have an impact? >> what we are seeing in south texas is the epitome of battleground texas, where it was a reliably democratic stronghold for a very long time, but the republicans have been making investments over the years. this really was a wake-up call to democrats, and democrats this election cycle have been investing a lot. if you are down in texas you are seeing nonstop coverage, ad

coverage, negative and positive ad, you name it, so democrats are fighting hard to keep this region. this is the showdown between rs and ds in south texas. >> you know it better than most, and what is it -- we were hearing voters talking about, oh, the country may be changing, in other words, border issues, the humanitarian crisis on the border is a very real issue for many people at the border. what have been the things that have changed and made this such a battleground area? >> here i think a couple dimensions to immigration, right? there's the humanitarian aspect of it with folks who want to see the asylum status and refugee status being granted, and then people are frustrated on the other side, the resources are going to folks not in the region. the second aspect is trade. in south texas, it's one of the

made trade corridors and we have seen stoppages at the border by governor abbott and the trump era, so you have folks looking at the border from an economic lens and a humanitarian lens with folks falling on either side of that. >> thank you both for being with us this morning. i so appreciate it. up next, what the outcome of this election means to the future of the biden presidency. you are watching "josé diaz-balart reports."

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48 past the hour. the results of today's elections will have enormous implications for what happens in washington and around the country for at least two years. let's discuss that with "new york times" chief correspondent, peter and also punchbowl chairman. what happens if president biden's -- what happens to his agenda if the optimism is not followed through, if he simply, you know, if they don't do well? >> yeah, look.

the republicans take hold of one or both houses, that's the end of president biden's presidency as he has known so far, and his aspirations in the first two years will be over, and the expansive social network of childcare and additional help for the, you know, economically, you know, struggling will be out the window and he will face two years of trench warfare with the republican house and presumably the republican senate that is interested in conflict and investigating heuplg. there are areas where the white house feels they could have common ground on a issue of opioid use or crime and tech legislation, but the ambitions he had the last two years

legislatively, and if he wants to run if donald trump is about to announce. >> so if the democrats keep the senate but the republicans take the house, how would that change things? >> well, jake is a better expert on the hill than i am. filibuster approved democratic control of the senate whether or not republicans have majority or not, and legislation will not get to his desk, at least standalone legislation that he wants and if it does he can veto it. and republicans have an advantage, and that's appropriation bills and debt limit bills, things they have to pass and president biden is not going to sign a bill that would outlaw abortion across the

country or something that is considered to be a first principle for democrats, but he might be forced to accept policies he might otherwise not like in order to keep the country from defaulting and that kind of thing. you will see a lot of that kind of leveraging and showdown, and sort of a legislative game of chicken in some ways over the next two years. >> jake, you know, in politics, very rarely do you hear, yeah, i will take the blame for this. if democrats do, indeed lose the house or -- how would that blame game start? >> there's plenty of blame to go around. depends on how you look at it. democrats wanted to use the majority to achieve as much as humanly possibly, and there will always be when you shift to the left or to the right in the case of the republicans, there's always going to be a -- an out

come on the other side, and leave aside what they did legislatively. when the party in power holds the house of representatives, they usually lose it in the midterms, period. and so republicans, remember, and peter said this, too, republicans ran against joe biden. biden wants to say it's not a referendum, it's a choice. republicans ran a referendum campaign coast-to-coast on inflation, on crime, on foreign policy, on spending, all of those things. republicans that are coming to washington are coming to stop joe biden. are there areas -- i agree big tech legislation is one and maybe something on openoids, but there are several inflexion points where they might be able to take care of much of this in

the lame duck session of congress, and if the republicans take the house, the ball is in their court. >> tonight, what are you looking for, peter? >> well, look, obviously what you are looking for is the senate. the house, let's face it, under almost scenario is gone. it matters if it's a 20-vote or 30-vote majority, and in the margins, if they take the house and that's simply a half dozen seats, that means jim jordan has subpoena power. the house, if you think it goes the way the polls indicate, it will be in republican hands. and the senate is a tie ball game at this point and it will be fascinating to see some of the close races play out. >> what about you? >> the margin. peter is right. republicans think they can win more than 22 seats, according to the people i spoke to this

morning, and do they have 270 or 240 or far less? that's what matters. peter is right, any control gives jim jordan subpoena power, but the house is only governorable if the house has that margin. >> thank you. up next, which state could deliver a senate surprise today? we'll look into that. you're watching "josé diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. a kohler home generator never misses a beat. it automatically powers your entire home in seconds. and keeps your family connected. with a heavy duty commercial grade engine and no refueling, even when the power goes out, life rocks on. right now get a free 10-year extended warranty and up to $750 off.

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57 past the hour. bolduc gaining on maggie hassan. and joining us from new hampshire is kristin.

>> 5600 people casts their votes so far, and they are expecting this to be a record turnout here today. you know, this is a race, as you said, is now in play. i don't think a lot of people would have predicted we would be talking about that, and democrats even put into his candidate, figuring he would be the easy candidate for maggie hassan. well, here we are today with these polls neck and neck, and so a lot of people out here talking about a few things, talking about reproductive rights, talking about the cost of inflation, the cost of heating oil in this state, which is about to go into a long and cold winter, so those are the issues that have been on peoples' minds. the polls here stay open until at least 7:00 in the state, and no later than 8:00, and some are looking for this to be an early

bellwether of what we are expecting in the country, and maggie hassan won by 8,000, so it could be a close night. that does it for me. thank you for the privilege of your time. i will see you tonight on msnbc and on telemundo. yasmin vossoughian picks up with more news right now. everybody, good morning to you. i am yasmin vossoughian coming to you from msnbc headquarters in new york city. it's election day in america. we have made it, everybody, after the tidal wave of ads and seesawing polls and the