right now on a special election day of "andrea mitchell reports" decision 2022. millions of americans head to the polls today to decide the balance of power in congress and statehouses across the country. >> there was so many women in there. and i love that.

we exercise our right. >> this should have higher turnout than what you typically see for midterms. >> a lot of people are beginning to realize that things are, you know, headed in the wrong direction. they want to, you know, have more control over what's happening in their lives. >> we have live reports from seven, key states, that will determine the senate, the future prospect for the biden agenda and the shape of the 2024 presidential contest. steve kornacki will be at the big board in moments to tell us where the most important races stand on election day, while former president trump leaves no doubt about his plans. >> i'm going to be making a very big announcement on tuesday, november 15th. an emotional nancy pelosi raising questions about her future. >> will your decision be impacted by the attack in any

way. >> yes. and welcome. good day. i'm andrea mitchell at msnbc headquarters in new york. candidates and reporters are at polls today, with so much at stake for both political parties. republicans are bullish about their chances to have a strong night and retake congress, needing a net gain of one seat to win back the senate. and a net gain of five seats to win back the house. the priorities for voters this midterm election, inflation, crime, immigration, abortion, threats to our democracy and election security. all issues that will be driving the vote today. we begin this hour with the first of what is going to be multiple reports from two states throughout the hour, beginning with stephanie gosk in pennsylvania, trymaine lee in

georgia. stephanie, let's start with you in pennsylvania. what do you see? >> andrea, we are in the middle of the lunchtime rush here, in upper providence township. we'll be here all day. this is in montgomery county. as you may remember from the presidential election, it's a really important county for joe biden. there was an enthusiasm for him that helped push him over the edge two years ago. the question is, is that enthusiasm still here? a lot of people saying it may not be. these people voting in person. but there's a critical issue right now, with the mail-in votes here in the state of pennsylvania. and let me just set that up a little bit for you. the mail-in vote, when you're done voting, you have to sign and date the back of that ballot before you send it in. and a lot of people leave the date off. some people were told even put their birthday on there. right now, according to the supreme court here in this

state, those ballots have to be put aside. john fetterman, along with the democratic committee are fighting that. a large majority of the ballots will probably go to democrats and the number could be in the thousands. they are arguing in court that it is unconstitutional not to count those votes. and in a tight senate race, like the one they have here in pennsylvania, those votes could matter, andrea. >> thanks to stephanie gosk. tremaine, you with in cobb county, as senator warknock and herschel walker are hoping for the 50% they need to avoid a runoff. >> the stakes are high here in georgia, where much has been made not only about voter enthusiasm and black voter engagement, as you mentioned, issues at play when it comes to the matter of voting. there's a law in place that

tinkered with the window that you could mail in your ballots and get them back in at time. 1,000 black voters said they didn't get it in time. the black voter engagement. 2.5 million people, a record, voted early. and black voters overperformed compared to their registered adult voters. but i talked to folks here who say despite the polls, despite political analysts, you know, treating this like a horse race or a game, i spoke to a man who was formerly homeless, who came here to vote today because he understands how help plays a role for folks. one person went to the hospital with covid, and everyone came out but her sister that died. she is here to make her voice heard. it's more than the polls, and more than the politics, they're voice matters here, andrea. >> shaq brewster, we see both candidates in wisconsin today.

we expect to see tony evers any moment voting at this hour. how are they doing? how are the campaigns feeling today? all-important wisconsin? >> all campaigns on all side are preaching turnout, that this is going to come down to turnout, where they have had tight margins going back years and years. you mentioned the marquee races that we're watching. we're seeing a flood of campaign advertising. tens of thousands of miles clocked on the closing days on the bus tours that the candidates have been going on. now, it's about who shows up to the polls. for the gubernatorial race, it's the incumbent governor, facing that challenge from tim michaels. that race is a tossup. and then, there's the battle for senate. that's ron johnson facing the battle from the lieutenant governor, mandela barnes. he started the race leading but

ron johnson had the consistent but narrow lead. as i talk to voters, they understand the pressure. you hear a lot of anxiety and you hear a lot of joy. they know it depends on what happens as they show up to the polls. >> thanks so much. thanks to you all for starting us off. let's get right to nbc's steve kornacki at the big board. what are you looking for? what are the movements today? >> at 7:00 p.m., new hampshire closes. you have maggie hasan and don bolden. this is a race that's emerged in the last few weeks, unexpectedly, as what looks like a competitive race with republicans, don boldic wasn't the first or the tenth choice. but the polls have put him close to hasan, would be a republican pickup. and why i key up on new hampshire early, at 7:00

p.m. closing time, it looks like a jigsaw puzzle. they release the vote by cities and towns. you will get a lot of whole results that may give the ability early on to gauge how the race is shaping up, in comparison to the presidential race of 2020 in new hampshire. better for the democrats when new hampshire was dead-even. this state moved towards the biden and the democrats in 2020. if you're boldic, we will be going through. is he running five points or better above trump's number. when you see that pattern emerge, it will be a sign that new hampshire republicans have a chance of flipping that seat. they would suggest that it's a good time for republicans outside of new hampshire, too. that's one place we will be

looking. and bolduc isn't doing that. good news for democrats nationally. but new hampshire is one of the states that we will be watching early. and 7:00 p.m. poll closing time in georgia. that key senate race right there. they may do things a little differently in terms of the vote we're reporting. in the atlanta area, they have been reporting out most of the mail vote and the early vote quickly. that may happen this time, different than the past. there's the possibility we'll get a ton of vote reported out, shortly after 7:00 p.m. in georgia. maybe more democratic than the final results, something to keep in mind as the georgia numbers start to come in. >> we'll start looking for where the house seats might be moving. virginia closes early. three vulnerable democrats there. and you have new york state. and i'm looking at something you raised earlier today on "morning joe." the zelden/hochul race, which is

closer than you thought it would be. look at the "new york post" headlines. where rupert murdoch is doing everything they can for lee zelden. he could carry three or up to five upstate and long island republican house districts. so, they could get the five seats they need, just in new york. >> what is blue in new york is new york city and is buffalo. and if kathy hochul is winning a narrow race tonight in new york, it means she is going to drive up huge numbers in new york city. she's going to drive up huge numbers in buffalo. but she's going to get clobbered in most of the rest of the state, including long island, the catskills, the southern tier.

that region. if you look at the house map, where the competitive house seats are in new york state, yeah. there's two on long island that are currently democratic held that are open seats that voted for biden, won by eight, won by 12. the hochul is getting blown out on long island, those can be republican pickups. and there's three, the 17th, 18th, 19th, and one is the chair of the "d" seat. if hochul has a close call statewide, if she's winning, it's areas she's probably losing. and yeah. three democratic-held house seats on long island. that could be on an ideal night for republicans a net gain of five seats out of new york. what do they need to win the house? a net gain of five seats. >> steve kornacki, all of the early warning signs to look for tonight. thank you so much for laying it all out for us. and joining us now, charlie sykes, founder and editor at

large from the bulwark. ed rendell, and philly mayor, of course. former maryland congresswoman, donna edwards. and robert gibbs. ed rendell, i are never forget 2016 in pennsylvania. we were on this show, and what are you seeing out of philly? what are you seeing from suburban women, for hillary clinton. and you said, it's not looking good. and i said if it's not looking good in pennsylvania, she's not going to win. and you said, that's right. so, give me your expertise today. are you seeing any warnings for democrats in a critical state for both parties? >> this is a real saga. john fetterman won the primary. the first poll had him 11 points over dr. oz. then, margins started to slip other the summer. and with news of fetterman's stroke reached the public, it

was the debate did not go well for fetterman and oz took a brief lead. fetterman has taken back the lead in the polls. but it's pretty much dead-even. i think the dark horse fact that nobody has noted is josh shapiro, our democratic governor candidate is winning by so much, 12, 13 points in the polls. i think a lot of republicans may stay home and not come out to vote and not vote for dr. oz in the general election. i think shapiro could pull fetterman in it. >> i want you to follow up, robert gibbs, as a former white house press secretary. you're in the oval office and looking at all this. you're a president that's not gone outside of pennsylvania to embattled states. you know, he's just not traveled. >> yeah. >> he's in maryland on election eve. >> maryland on election eve. but importantly, he was, and two former presidents in

pennsylvania this weekend. i think it shows you and certainly governor rendell can speak to this. for democrats, pennsylvania is the gateway to tonight. it is enormously hard for democrats to control the senate after tonight, without john fetterman picking up pennsylvania. that allows another race to be lost by the democrats later in the night. if that comes to pass and have 50 votes. an important place for the hopes of joe biden and his legislative agenda in 2024. but also for senate control in 2023. >> charlie sykes, what are you seeing out in wisconsin? you have senator johnson in a close race? can mandela barnes get enough to win? >> it will with interesting to see how many split-ticket voters we have here. tony evers has been ahead in the

polls. abortion is a black and white issue here. he's not the strongest candidate and will be a hard sell in the suburbs. we'll get an early indication of what was the voter turnout in milwaukee and madison, the keys for the democrats and whether or not suburban voters who abandoned ron johnson and that's far from clear. here, i think democrats' hopes are going to rest mainly on the governors race. ron johnson was the most vulnerable at the beginning of the year. we may look back at this as a lost opportunity. >> let's look at the house. if history proves to be correct, there will be a shift from the

republicans and what size of shift? and kevin mccarthy is potentially a new speaker. and he's laid out an agenda that will show remarkably tough time for president biden going forward. as well as a tough time in the democratic caucus, should nancy pelosi step down. >> i've been looking at this race, and there's so many seats across the country that we don't know what this is going to mean. we don't know what it means for turnout. and i think this is so different from the obama years, where we had an idea going into the election that it was going to be really tough, to maintain those seats. i think this election is very unclear. a lot of it depends on turnout. democrats turnout on election day, what's happening to the early vote.

and should things change, i don't think it will be the shellacking that we saw before democrats would call that a good night and an opportunity to stay unified anmarjorie taylor green-controlled congress. >> you have rhode island that the blue areas are vulnerable for democrats. this is redistricting. >> yeah. partly redistricting. and partly, i think democratic enthusiasm. you mentioned it with steve just a second ago. five seats could swing in new york if the governor's race isn't as strong as you typically think. oregon hasn't elected a republican governor in 40 years. but there's three contested house races out there. if that democratic candidate

isn't driving turnout and enthusiasm is down, that's when i think you get into a discussion of are we in a wave or not? a lot of the seats, rhode island, too, and other places that, frankly, joe biden did well in, they shouldn't be on the map of tossup races and are. if those start to creep up, if that margin starts to creep up, you're getting into the territory of bad election night for democrats but a way for republicans. >> charlie sykes, let's talk about donald trump. the other big story, from former president last night and saying that he is -- first of all, he said today, that he did vote for ron desantis and he's going to have a big announcement that he's teased every day, when he's supposed to be campaigning for other people. it will be november 15th. he will announce that he's running. and he did say he voted for

desantis. how do you read all this? >> no surprise whatsoever. and donald trump does not want the focus to be on any other republicans, to announce this basically, we'll say this is all about me. it is breasting to jockeying begins. it won't stake because it's too hard to tweet and too hard to say. somebody else is coming up with trump's words for him. he will come up with something else. i think it's an indication that the elbows will be sharp. and this is a signal that if you take on the president in exile, we will come after you and we will destroy you. look at what happened to ted cruise and marco rubio. look what i did to them. will any republicans be able to stand against donald trump? >> thanks to all of you.

and republican candidates in key races are questioning the last election. what that could mean if they win today. you're watching a special ed lex day edition of "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. time. it's life's most precious commodity, especially when you have metastatic breast cancer. when your time is threatened, it's hard to invest in your future. until now. younger women are living longer with kisqali when taken with an aromatase inhibitor in hr+,

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we're watching two swing states out west with election deniers and conspiracy theorists, with key spots on republican tickets. let's get to nbc's vaughn hillyard in paradise valley. vaughn, first you, kari lake is already casting doubt if she will accept the election results against katie hobbs. talk to me about that. >> last night at her final

campaign rally, she said the press would rather not talk about stolen elections, referring back to 2020, a race in which she is calling the decertification of and the courts would take issue with this process if a republican legislature next year, if governor kari lake were to get such a bill on her desk and decertify the 2020 election. the courts would take up such an effort here. and last night, she was calling in her own race for governor here. the polls show this to be a neck and neck race. there's no allegations of fraud. there's no allegations of rigging this election. yet, this is a cornerstone of kari lake's candidacy and why she curried favorite with donald trump in 2021. it's not just her in the ball game here. it takes the secretary of state and the attorney general to certify the presidential results here. and she is working with election

deniers for those seats respectively in trying to boost their candidacies. of course, blake masters told me himself, if he had been in the u.s. senate on january 6th of 2021, he would have objected to the certification of joe biden's win. and that's where you have a slate of these four candidates, a quartet, if you may, that have been traveling around the state here. and they are trying to boost the rural turnout, andrea, the type of republican voters that came out to support donald trump in 2020 and allowed him to nearly overcome the deficit he faced in the suburbs of the greater phoenix area. vaughn, thank you out there. john ralston, it could take days in nevada, with the union that is hoping that the voters in large numbers could push democratic senator katherine cortez mastro. do you think she can win or is this something that democrats have long held on the state?

>> i did predict she is going to win for a variety of the candidates in the state. you mentioned a culinary union. they were out on the streets at 6:00 in the morning to start driving people to the polls. the early vote, that is about two-thirds of the vote, may be a little more. it showed a close race between the republicans and the democrats. the democrats generally build up a big lead in clark county. can the culinary union help cortez masto today? >> thank you very much. joining us now is cook political report senior editor david wasserman.

you're the guru of the house seats. have you seen enough? >> what today comes back to is democrats never started out with a mandate to begin with. and in 2020, joe biden took on a historically unpopular president. trump had a 53% disapproval rating. and yet, joe biden only carried wisconsin, arizona, georgia, nevada and pennsylvania, by less than 2.5%. he won the median house district, by 2.1%. and now, president biden is the one with a 53% disapproval rating. the laws of political gravity are working in republicans' favor. the likeliest outcome, is that republicans pick up house seats. and democrats are hanging on for dear life in the senate. there's a chance that democrats hold pennsylvania and won in nevada, arizona and georgia today. >> let's talk a little more about the senate. where do you see democrats

having the best shot to hold on? >> i think the root is still in arizona and georgia, and pennsylvania. they got to hold on to three of the four core states, nevada being the fourth. i think nevada is the likeliest to go republican out of that bunch. but pennsylvania, you know, has taken a turn towards dr. oz. he has made the race much less about -- much less about himself and more about john fetterman in the past month and rebranded himself as a moderate in the suburbs of pennsylvania. that's paid dividends. >> what about the possibility that josh shapiro, who is running a strong gubernatorial race against a really extreme republican election denier, january 6th protester, all the rest, joined the insurrection for the mob and the anti-semitic extreme language that has come from doug mastriano.

how about shapiro that could pull fetterman through if there aren't too many ticket splitters. >> there will be ticket splitters in the suburbs. and josh shapiro has shown a textbook example of how you do confront an election denier. and katie hobbs has shown what not to do, shying away from con fronting kari lake. look, early on election night, i think we'll get some important tea leaves in virginia, where we have two highly competitive house races in new hampshire, in the first congressional district, and in indiana's first district. what i'm going to be paying attention to early on, on election night, is whether republicans are headed for a true majority or just a marjorie. i was talking to kevin mccarthy. he wants more than 25 seats. anything less than 15 and he will have a hard time

circumventing the far right fringe of his conference. >> david wasserman, thank you so much. the senate races in new hampshire and north carolina have not gotten as much national attention, but they are critical for the fight for the senate, in the granite state, where we started the show off today, back with steve kornacki at the board. maggie hassan, against don bolduc. and the senate seat in north carolina is up for grabs with the former chief justice, cheri beasley and ted budd facing off. now is nbc news correspondent, kristen dahlgren in bedford, new hampshire. kristen, first to you, you have been speaking to voters as they cast their vote. what are you hearing in new hampshire, that is critical, not just -- it is critical for the senate. but also for what happens in

2024, to have a democratic governor is a big plus for the democratic party. >> right, absolutely, andrea. we've seen a steady stream of voters and they're talking about two primary issues, the people we've been speaking with. reproductive rights and inflation. this is a state going into a long, cold winter. the cost of heating could be driving record turnout this year. want to get you some of the numbers from bedford. so far we've seen 4,700 people voting today. absentee ballots, counting about 1,700 of those, out of the 16,000 people that are registered here in this district. and the party breakdowns are interesting. about 6,000 registered republicans, 4,200 registered democrats and 5,8 undeclared. general bolduc called them prickly independents.

it could come down to those voters, the independents, undecided today, in again what could be record turnout for this key senate race here. back to you, andrea. >> kristen dahlgren, in bedford. antonio hilton, you're in one of the true swing districts in north carolina. what is the message from cheri beasley and budd? >> this is a community with republicans and democrats and unaffiliated voters. many are planning to vote split ticket. they don't have affinity for either party right now. cheri beasley, the democrats closing message, she is going to be an independent democrat. she breaks with the biden administration and is for lowering cost and managing inflation and fighting for abortion rights and trying to codify row roe. and for ted budd, you should vote for him if you want to send

a message to the biden administration. you want a change. he has really taken the economy and inflation to connect with voters who are worried about the cost of living right now. wily nichol, the democrat who is running in the tight congressional race, is here shaking hands and talking to voters. in this area of the state, people are really looking for the voters who might be crossing lines, who are going to think about this very big picture, who are going to be much more issues-focused, than party-focused. this district, the 13th, is a bellwether one to keep an eye on tonight. the message they send is likely going to be reflective of a message sent to the country tonight. >> that's why we're going to be checking back with both of you tonight. thanks so much, kristen dahlgren and antonia hilton. joining us now is a former top aide to president biden at the white house, who served as

chairman of the congressional black caucus. did the party make a mistake by helping don bolduc win the primary by taking down his opponent with a lot of negative ads? >> i'm not necessarily sure exactly what you are preferring to. they ran general election commercial les before the primary. they didn't say anything positive about him, but they pointed out how extreme he is for new hampshire. unfortunate that's where so many republicans in the primary go to. this is not unusual to have tight races in a primary. the history over the last 100 years of presidents coming off -- on their first midterm, it's tough. you know what? we're right in the fight. we're very optimistic. i think we're going to hold the

senate when we should have a conversation about republicans taking five to seven seats right now. we're still in a position to hold the senate. >> what about north carolina? when you've got former state supreme court cheri beasley, seems to check all of the boxes that the dnc want in a candidate. she was the focus of democratic support early on. do you -- >> she didn't get -- she did get democratic support. and what we've been able to do is usually in midterm elections, the dnc supports to the tune of $30 million. we've given the dnc and all of the affiliate organizations $90 million. you're talking about a 300% increase in investing in democratic candidates all arnold the country. not to mention fund-raising and all of the other things he's

did. beasley is an incredible candidate and we expect to win. >> there's a lot of commentary that the money came in too little and too late for her and she had to really fight an uphill race there, one that she didn't necessarily have to fight because she was a tailor-made candidate. let's go on to the big picture, you're talking about holding on to the senate. what are you seeing in georgia? >> in georgia, we have an excellent candidate in reverend rafael warnock. he is talking about his accomplishments, bringing down prescription drugs, gun reform, what they were able to do with student loan forgiveness. there's a number of things that democrats should be out there talking about. the freedom of women to control their own body. all of these things are key issues across america. and senator warnock is doing a great job in his closing arguments saying that republicans, the first thing they want to do is repeal the

inflation reduction act, which would increase the cost of drugs for seniors, delete the cap of insulin for diabetics. increase health care. all those things they have been able to do. we know inflation is real and that's exactly why president biden and democratic congress in the senators have been working household costs while republicans are saying, not only are we going to do a nationwide ban on abortion, but we're going to undo all of the cost-saving measures that democrats were able to implement. >> do those policy questions, not punch through as much as they should? you could argue, against a celebrity, a football hero, in georgia? >> herschel walker is a terrible

candidate. his values are out of touch with america, period. the fact this race is close is how extreme the republican party has turned and how they have forfeited the moral compass to former president trump. i think reverend warnock is going to win. we have to make sure that we wait until all of the votes are counted. and i'm very confident that he's going to prevail. he's been an excellent senator. and if you take a real honest look at former football player herschel walker, it's scary. you have to realize the senate is a deliberative body. you're responsible for the welfare of the united states and our standing around the world. we need our best and our brightest. and senator warnock is certainly that. >> former congressman, thank you very much. thanks for being with us. up next, how misinformation

and disinformation campaigns are impacting the election. what to look out for. you're watching a special election day edition of "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc.

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risk factors have an increased risk of serious heart-related events or death with jak inhibitors. it's time to get out in front of eczema. ask your doctor about once-daily cibinqo. on this election day, house speaker nancy pelosi, is back in washington after the brutal attack on her husband. pelosi on cnn monday, saying there is a line from january 6th directly to attack on her husband, paul. >> paul was not the target. and he's the one who is paying the price. we all are. but he's the one that's really paying the price. it really -- it's really sad. it is a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all of the rest of that, which is most

unfortunate. it has no place in our democracy. >> joining me now is ben collins. let's talk about what today could be a faceoff with disinformation and misinformation. as nancy pelosi points out, according to the suspect himself. >> if you see the places where that guy hung out. those people are committed to violence today. if you see them today, they say the real solution is the revolution. while in the house and said it to the police.

there's a sizable chunk of the electorate that have given up on voting. they believe that people in nursing homes have having votes changed. incredible lies. mostly pushed from the propaganda film "2000 mules." this comes from a much larger mythmaking apparatus. if it's big enough, it can influence an election and we've seen it recently in the last couple of years. >> nbc news is reporting there's election deniers on the ballot in 45 states. how do you think the spread of the falsehoods could affect

today's election and americas democracy? many are running for secretary of state or governor, who will decide on the electoral college in 2024. >> it could happen in a big way. i want to say a thank you to ben for all these done to show us this dimension of american life. the 1800 version of nbc did not someone reporting on dystopia, but we sure do and it's a commercial part of this story. throughout american history there's been assassination attempts and hostage taking attempts. both could have led to the attack on paul pelosi, that was for nancy pelosi a few days ago. but they did not have instant social media, where people can get in touch with each other instantly and aggravate each other and coordinate and plot in a way that is impossible to most of american history. you're asking about election

deniers and what makes today different from all other election days, which is for most of american history, we have had faith that the winners would be installed in office and the losers would not. and if there's an extremely rare case of vote fraud, and it has been rare in american history, it would be investigated and there would be consensus. >> in that emotional interview, rare, emotional interview with nancy pelosi, anderson cooper asked pelosi about her own political future. let's listen to what she said. >> have you made a decision in your mind, whatever that decision may be? >> i would have to say my decision would be affective of what happened the last week or two. >> will your decision be impacted by the attack in any way? >> yes.

>> how do you interpret that? one way is that she is worried about her husband and she was the cause of it because she was the target and he was the victim. later in the interview, she talks about the need to fight for democracy and she is the only one that could pull that off. >> i hope she is saying this is a woman who loves her husband and is heart sick by his injury. and he was injured by someone that was trying to kidnap her or worse. knowing her, people should think if they don't like what a political leader is doing, they should try this sort of attack. you go through american history and that does not happen. our democracy should not be hostage that ben is seeing on

the internet that is muttering threats into the night. >> thanks to you, michael. and i'll add my thanks to ben because your work is extraordinary and invaluable. after the overturning of roe v. wade what role will abortion rights play in tonight's voting? tonight's vote count. today's voting. you're watching special election day coverage on "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. kes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger.

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with abortion now fading as a top concern in the months since the dobbs decision came down, have democrats and other pro-choice voters done enough to keep it top of mind? five states now are voting on abortion ballot measures, including in michigan where the issue is front and center in the governor's race. >> governor's decision to support abortion rights is huge on my mind, as a woman, as a mom, as a sister, as a -- it's very important to me that we have our own choices to make. it's our body, it's our choice. >> we are supporting tudor dixon based on her education stance and her fight for families and children and babies in this country. >> joining me now are cecile richards, co-chair of democratic-aligned group american bridge and former planned parenthood president and tom bonyer, democratic strategy and ceo of target smart. so tom, you saw a spike in women

registering to vote after that supreme court ruling last summer, and in battleground states where women account for a larger portion of the early vote. what's happened since? >> well, you know, like you said, we saw that record-setting surge, this unprecedented surge of women registering voting not only in kansas but in special elections where democrats won. new york 19, alaska. the big question has been will we see that same surge in women turning out in this election? and so you know, as you've noted, as you've been talking about, over 40 million people have voted already in those states you've just showed. we're seeing a bigger gender gap among the early vote than we did at this same point in 2020. so it's an early sign. of course it's all dependent on what is happening right now today. but it is an early sign that that intensity is carrying through election day. >> and the intensity, how do we interpret it, cecile?

because the economy, inflation overtook abortion as the top issue. so what do you think is driving suburban women, for instance, in those college lar counties outside of philadelphia and pittsburgh? >> sure. well, first i want to say thanks to tom because he has really been keeping us up to date on everything that's happened in the early vote and this surge of course that we've seen of women registering to vote after the dobbs decision, particularly young women. who are critically important and overwhelmingly supportive of democrats. i'm exactly where tom is on this. we aring seeing right now about 58% of the -- of democratic vote is women. that's consistent gender gap that we saw in the last two cycles. and interesting, andrea, even though of course we know that the economy and inflation are important motivating issues. for democratic women voters still the number one issue that they cite as a reason to go vote in this election is the issue of freedom to make their own decisions about pregnancy. the dobbs decision and the

extremism of the republican party is going to be a huge motivator this midterm election. i also think it's going to have a huge effect in the upcoming presidential election as well. this extremism by the republican party is not going to age well with women voters. >> and tom, what about the election deniers? because they are -- we were talking about with michael beschloss, they are on the ballot in 45 states in key races. >> yeah. you know, as cecile said, she hit the nail right on the head, it's about republican extremism. the reason why this election is close -- republicans historically should be running away with this. we shouldn't be having this conversation at this moment. we know the history of midterm elections. the reason why it is so close, and you see polls as a sort of choose your own adventure, some polls showing democrats up five, some showing republicans are up five, it's because of that intensity and engagement in the democratic base that no one expected, and it's all about republican extremism. whether that is the dobbs

decision, whether that's january 6th, as you say, the election deniers, that's motivating democratic voters who generally wouldn't participate in this midterm election to come out and vote. >> and cecile, let's talk about jill biden. she has been everywhere campaigning relentlessly to try to boost vulnerable democrats, especially in house seats including a lot of places that joe biden has not been able to go. >> it's -- look, it's wonderful to see the first lady on the trail. she is such a fabulous leader and spokesperson. and you know, it's interesting, andrea, i will say, and i just got off the road from several states, women are everywhere as always fueling the democratic machine. they are out on the doors knocking. they are running phone banks. they are running text banks. so i feel like what i've seen and what we're seeing from these photographs with dr. biden is that women are on fire in this election cycle. they are highly motivated. they're turning out to vote.

of course we still have a lot of votes to turn in on election day. but i think women are going to tell the story, especially in some of these close races. >> well, cecile richards, tom bonier, thanks to both of you for all your help today. and that does it for this special election day edition of "andrea mitchell reports." remember, follow the show online on facebook and on twitter @mitchellreports. and i'll be on your local nbc station tonight along with lester holt, savannah guthrie, chuck todd and hallie jackson and the rest of the nbc news team. and here on msnbc of course join rachel maddow, joy reid, nicolle wallace and steve kornacki as they lead coverage and break down the results. coverage begins tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. chris jansing will be here right after this break. trying to control my asthma felt anything but normal. ♪ ♪ enough was enough. i talked to an asthma specialist

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good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. it all comes down to this. election day. the culmination of the most expensive, most inflammatory, most contentious and tumultuous midterm battle we've ever seen. the stakes, unbelievably high. control of congress, control of three dozen governorships across the country, and control over the direction of this country for years to come. that means the question of how this nation handles the issues you care most about. theec