it was that democrats can't win with inflation where it is. that was wrong. voters seem to have made complicated and in some instances picking a republican -- inflation wasn't the political cudgel that republicans made it to be. it's painful in peoples lives, economic exiled is real, but republicans rang on weaponizing against democrats, and i think voters are stupid. they didn't run on solving, that they were on liz truss's policies, which ended her job. that there is saying three weeks more in the cavalry is coming since even more. i think the fact that they ran a crime in the red on inflation, and they didn't have any solutions, of some of them are paying for that. >> 10:00 in about 15 seconds here in the east coast. the post polls closing at 10:00, or montana, utah and nevada. we're like watching all the close senate races in the country, but polls closing in those three states, this is what we can tell you in terms of the and bc news projections. in a divided senate race, got a

democratic incumbent, catherine cortez masto, chasing a republican challenge from adam laxalt. this race is currently not characterized on our screen, but i believe it's too early to call. correct? yes. in the early utah senate race, mike early face likely facing a -- too close to call too early to call. in a nevada governor race we're seeing in a community cisa lack, hissing republican jolin-barrette, of this is also too early to call. let's recap what's going on in some of these closely watched senate races. the north carolina senate race. it is too close to call between republican ted budd and cheri beasley democrat. in the georgia senate race, it is too early to call between the incumbent raphael warnock and republican herschel walker. look how tight they are. in ohio senate race, it is too early to call between

republican j.d. vance and democrat tim ryan. about two thirds of the vote in. in the pennsylvania senate race with about 40% of the vote in, it is too early to call between democrat john fetterman and republican mehmet oz. in the new hampshire, interesting senate race, it is too early to call. maggie hassan, the republican incumbent facing republican donald bolduc. got a little less than 40% of the voting, and it's too early to call in new hampshire. and in arizona, we are looking at too early to call race between mark kelly the democratic incumbent and the republican challenger blake masters. at this hour, the democrats control 40 senate seats, the republicans control 41. 19 are still in play. steve, we've been talking a lot about the overall race for the individual house races. you've got more news for us in that front? >> yeah, why don't we start in ohio. because we talk about ohio's

important, couple of different districts for different reasons. can see the senate raising race here with vance, ahead of ryan. just looking at some of the counties where we have all the vote in. the pattern that i am finding so far is that vance seems to be running underneath donald trump's number, but not underneath it necessarily to the degree that he would need for ryan to win outright. there are some big democratic areas with a lot of votes. but there are some encouraging counties for fans. remember, trump won the state by eight points. but when you take a look at the key house races in the hawaiian. let's start up here in marcy captors county, this is one of the democratic held places in the dam republican line of attack. republican said we're gonna pick this up. marcy kept, or a 40 year democratic veteran, two thirds of the vote in here. let's dive a little deeper. these are the key component counties of the district. you see captures leading.

we know what is being counted, is the same day vote which is generally the most republican friendly vote. here's the problem for majeski. look how much voters in in the court republican counties. they're already up to 90% basically 90% of williams over 93% in fulton. you look over here sandusky county, they're over 90%. ottawa county, which is very competitive, they're basically -- not leclerc weather still outstanding vote. the mother lode, lucas county, where toledo is, it's same-day vote, but it's gonna be democratic vote probably. it's not gonna be the same margin we've seen captured in the early in mail. the most outstanding votes in this district is coming from a core democratic area and kaptur already leads in the area. so if you're democrat, i think you're excited what you're seeing in that race there. let's go down south to the cincinnati-based first

congressional district. this one's gonna be close. that's with that math we were running early. this is steve shabbat a republican incumbent whose, district was redrawn into being a biden plus eight district. he's been challenged by member of the cincinnati city council greg landsman. so the big district is hamilton county, cincinnati plus this is warren county, republican territory. now look, shabbat is running up the score here in warren county. there's still votes to come, same-day votes. you expect to be that heavily republican, so shabbat with an opportunity to make gains here. but look at the cincinnati portion of the district which is bigger. two thirds of the vote already for landsman. now again, the same day vote should be more friendly for shabbat, but there's an opportunity for landsman's to still win and make gains with the same day vote and hamilton county. this is a very winnable race for democrats and if they win it, that's a pick up. you get a pick up of out of that district. we're also looking at -- excuse me the 13th district.

again we're starting to get the same thing. we checked in here about 20 minutes ago, in the democrat amelia sykes was ahead about 20 5:30 points or something like that. that was on the strength of the male and the early vote. now you counting up the same date, now starting to get close. but again this is tim ryan's district, he's vacated to run for the senate. democrats would like to hold on to this one. now if we show you the big picture, first line of attack for republicans in terms of getting control of the house. they did get georgia six, it's one of those districts that was redrawn to practically guarantee a republican way. they're getting the win there. so they picked up four here, and again tennessee, five as one as when we showed was re-redrawn for the same purposes. but when you start to move away from those, you are talking about for instance ohio nine which i just took you through. and if you look at the next line here -- what time are we now? 10:06 pm. vulnerable democratic held

seats. you haven't had a single one called for the republicans yet. they have mekong for the democrats but the democrats are in the game for all of these. six-point lead for the democrats in north carolina's first congressional district. let's check in in the sixth district of illinois. more than half of voters in. sean casten is leading by more than 11 points of his republican can't be challenger. district 14 and award leading that morton 16 points. sort of water beyond what sheffield county. hayes for the democrats, republicans are very excited about this district, it's very early there. but again, it's that storyline is continuing here, on the house side, where we're just hours in and the only gains republicans have put on the board are in the seats that were drawn to give them gains. >> steve, thank you. we have a few updates for our viewers in terms of characterizations of various races. and nebraska governor's race. and d.c. can now project that the republican in that race jim pillen is the projected winner

in the nebraska governor's race. over the wyoming, and pc news can now project that the winner of the wyoming governor's race is the republican governor mark gordon. he's been reelected. we have a changing characterization in the pennsylvania governor's race. this race is still overall still consider to be too early to call but nbc news that says that josh superior is leading in the pennsylvania governor's race. of another similar change in new hampshire senate race, which at base level is still considered too early to call. but nbc news now says that incumbent democratic senator maggie hassan is now leading in the new hampshire senate race. we also want to look at one race that is a statewide race of national interest for a lot of reasons. the new york attorney generals race. democrat laetitia james is projected to be reelected as new york's attorney general. she is the projected winner in new york. obviously laetitia james as a very high profile role as new

york's attorney general in large part because of her offices work to investigate and bring a civil case and involved in a criminal case involving the business of former president donald trump. steve i would, like to go back to you on this cause to senate. racism commit republican ron johnson, against the challenger to pandemocrat mandela barnes. >> a big part of this is dane county, madison university, wisconsin. this is where the mother loads of democratic votes are in the state. c two thirds here, mandela barnes getting 77% out of here. this is a hair over what joe biden got in 2020. so for democrats that's kind of the number they want to see just out of accord emma crowded area. we all saw the fair amount of vote coming out of milwaukee county, and again court democratic, he can see biden got 69% here in 2020. barnes is running a 67%. the way things it usually work in wisconsin dealt with the

vote that in will waukee county, the city of milwaukee will basically take the mail-in ballots and they kind of hold him aside and bring them to a central processing facility and they count those at the very end of the night. those tend to be, we talk about this, the mail ballots being the most democratic friendly. i think there's a chunk of votes in a very big undemocratic friendly county that will be counted late in the night that could help barns here. see him running short of biden 's number. what made the difference. remember the state in 2020 was a trump 16 state, with biden 2020, and the margin was 20,000 votes in 2020. where donald trump lost the ground, couple of places, but the key is called a wild counties. there are three. or sake, washington, and walk a shot. the wow counties. right outside of milwaukee, suburban counties here. trump lost ground in these counties relative to 2016,

enough to make a difference between winning a state and losing it by 20,000 votes. so how is ron johnson kick doing compared to donald trump. in a while counties this is good news for johnson and the wild counties. he's running three points ahead in waukesha of what trump did. he's running about three points three and a half points ahead in washington, and in zaki county he's running about level. so the name of the game for ron johnson, that's part of it is, in those milwaukee suburbs, to get back to exceed that trump number. name it again for democrats to run up the score as much as they can in places like madison, milwaukee, green bay. we're waiting to get some votes out of here. i think that'll be very interesting. and i'll also there's a house race, in the third district in wisconsin. democrats trying to hold. i think we just got some vote out of arizona so, just gonna shift over here. let's just call this out because in arizona when the vote comes and it comes in fast. holy cow!

this is what i mean by the vote coming in fast. we've got now more than 40% of the vote in in arizona's senate race here and you can just see, i'm sorry maricopa county is the mother lode, more than 60% of the vote 50% of the vote in arizona. we can see here, they release here in one giant batch the early vote mail vote that was returned, generally by this saturday before the election okay. that's what happens. that was what comes out first in maricopa county. than for the rest of the night, they reported at the same day vote, and then tomorrow and later on we'll get the late arriving early votes. take a look here. kelly leading 50 9:39 in this initial report out of maricopa county. i have written down here with the initial port of maricopa county was in 2020. i try to find it. it was, i apologize, here it

is. the initial report out of maricopa county in 2020 was biden by ten. and the initial report coming out of maricopa county coming out of here in 2022, is 20 points. one thing i would caution you want is that 2020 number, when biden lead the initial count by ten in maricopa, there's a much larger of share of votes, was 71% of the total vote in the county. it's a little bit more than half of the vote. so there's the possibility that there is more room for masters to make up ground here than trump had in 2020. but still, if you are a democrat and you see more than half a vote in maricopa county, that's gonna be probably encouraging to see the other major source of votes in arizona's pima county. it's the tucson area. kind of expect any minute to light up the same way with that early vote, the earliest of the early vote, you get a big chunk that will affect the statewide

tally. statewide that's what it looks like in the senate race. compare that by the way with the governor's race, there's a bit of a difference there in terms of these ballots. katie hobbs the democrat, mark cali with 56%. and again that pima peace will come after the democratic county. pima peace will be significant. >> can i ask that steady cam operator fantasy the shot of steve's papers again? [laughs] >> real organized over here. >> the most magical part of the moment is that he found what he was looking for! i can't find what i'm looking for in front of me. >> if we do the slow motion replays, someone's gonna do it online for us, so we can own it or they can own it. >> for some characterizations i need to make here. sort of interrupt. in the illinois senate race, hala and d.c. news condo

project in the illinois senate race, democratic incumbent tammy duckworth is now reelected. tammy duckworth we turning to the united states senate. in the georgia senate race, this was previously characterizes too early to call, it's now too close to call. between raphael warnock and herschel water. there are 40 9:49, with listen 700 votes between them. i take all that to close to? call with just under 80% of the vote, it is too close to call in the georgia senate race. in the illinois governor's race, and abc news cannot project a democratic incumbent jb pritzker, governor of illinois has been reelected. he has defeated his republican challenger. and in the wisconsin governor's race this is previously too early to call, it is now too close to call between wisconsin democratic incumbent tony evers and his republican challenger tim michaels. that's about 43% of the vote in,

to close to call in the wisconsin governor's race. and on that note, i like to go to our friend simon saunders townsend, chief spokesman for vice president kamala harris. simon, i know you've been talking to sources on the ground in wisconsin. rossi watching that senate race and also that governor's race very closely. what are you hearing from your sources? >> democrats on the ground tell me about the governor's race that they are surprised that he is up this early, and it's a good sign, but they caution that there's still a long way to go. wisconsin is a place where people can register to vote on election day. democrats in the state spent a lot of time and effort it to increase turnout, particularly among young people, and black people, and women. milwaukee, for example, black voter turnout is up by over hundred 23% at this time in the last midterm election. young people up 300% across the state. they have seen lots of great turnout along long lines on college campuses. university of madison, you w,

you clare, milwaukee, people are feeling emboldened. but they do caution, it will be a long night. mandela barnes campaign says, mandela barnes told me himself, he's used to being the underdog here, and he is fine people and maybe counted him out, but they are still quite competitive. i think we are seeing that currently in the numbers. this cannot still a long night. milwaukee will take a long time to count, because different municipalities count differently. it's not a centralized county, and dade county were made madison's is still coming in. but they feel good, and i've often said rachel that i had to think it is not pennsylvania that is the most flip-able state for democrats, it is actually wisconsin. >> and simon, in terms of looking at those two races simultaneously, anything that you are hearing out of's state in the way that they are being run. what can you tell us about synergy between the mandela barnes campaign in the 20 ever's campaign. we're getting reports of votes from these same precincts in the butt, there's a split with ever's coming in with a higher

percentage of the vote than barnes hasn't now. is there synergy between the two campaigns? do they see their fortunes as linked? >> i think that folks think that if mandela barnes does well, then governor either's will do well. for people who think that governor beavers can do extremely well and win and at barnstead not. i think some of the attacks on crime may affect what happens in that race in wisconsin. as for people who haven't seen wisconsin, they were nasty, they were not racist as, it relates to mandela barnes. when i was on the ground, i could -- you could not make a move without seeing a negative ad. that has to account for something. i will tell you the, people from milwaukee, want to talk to black voters in the ground. they all said the same thing about mandela barnes. they see themselves in mandela barnes. they are looking to make history, and i don't think that we can underestimate what that means for folks on the ground. there's also the issue of abortion. tony ever's, mandela barnes,

very staunchly in the protect women camp. tim michaels, ron johnson's very staunchly in the the law on the books that punishes, vilifies and potentially jack jails women and doctors. >> simone sanders towns and thank you very much. steve you want to jump in here for a second? >> yeah, justin interesting development because you already had that call from the colorado senate race michael bennett getting reelected. for some house seats. there's a bigger story, and we can tell as the night goes on, but i want to flag this right now, because this would be a big surprise. the third district of colorado oh. you can see more than 70% of the vote is in now, and boebert is trailing by four. get this in perspective. trump won this district 50 3:45 over biden. so if you're adam fritz that the democrat, you want to be running south of joe biden's number.

if you just start to take a look, if 75% in, you start to see that that's what he's doing. he's over performing the biden numbers, substantially, and county after county. there are some heavily democratic counties, ski country's part of this district. there are some heavily democratic counties in this district, but even in those heavily democratic counties, he's over performing the biden. we go to court republican counties, he's over performing. this is interesting right now when you see the voters come in. the fact that he's got that lead any seems to be consistently outperforming the biden number across the district. this is certainly on my radar right now. and again, i know democrats actually have strong feelings about lauren boebert, they like it symbolically. but we were talking about the math of house control. this would be most significant if democrats could pull off, a net gain. maybe gaining a seat. they be offsetting one of those republican pickups we talked about out of florida and in georgia early in the night. >> steve i apologize for doing this and springing on you.

i can ask you but i have seen in north carolina, just because in my notes, what i've been writing about the north carolina 13 races that beau hines is the male lauren boebert. and bo hines is the republican candidate in north carolina 13. more than anyone else of it was a new candidate. i think beau hines is a contender to join the matt gates, lauren boebert, marjorie taylor greene caucus. how is he doing in north carolina 13? >> 75% of the vote and you can see right here. he's trailing six and a half points by the democratic opponent. just a difference of about 13,000 votes. trump lost this district. this was ted budd's district, ted budd running for the senate, it got dramatically redrawn. went from being core republican district to one that biden under these new lines actually would've carried by two points. if you follow that rule, that matt rule hines needs to be running a couple ahead points

ahead of trump, in the counties here. you take a look at it here, he is out here in wayne county. he is not, john's county is a big one. he is not running ahead of the trump number, and his two points ahead of it, in harnett county. then you start getting into this, is where democrats have their best chance here to get the sea. wake county. still a lot of vote to come and weigh county. look at that. it's already better than 2 to 1 advantage for wiley nickel here. this is a core democratic county. this is an opportunity here. why i'm much in the ted but piece of it is that if wiley nickel wins this, mathematically in terms of the counting, bouncing diligence for control of the house, this would be a democratic gain. it would be a net gain if democrats are able to win the seat. >> we do have a new characterization, a new call actually. in the iowa governor's race,

and messy news nbc news the incumbent kim reynolds is now to feed her democratic challenger. kim reynolds will be reelected his eye was republican governor. >> incumbent presidents party takes used the word, what paying, george bush use the word. top democrats run on infrastructure seem to be doing very, very well. this is the not the night republicans thought they would have. >> this comment, let me just reserve space for this comp maybe two you're hours from now. but joe biden is on the verge of being the most successful democratic president in a midterm election that we have seen in quite some time. >> it's early in the night!

>> we talk a lot about candidate quality, and we talk a lot about how trump may end up being an albatross. the democrats look like they've run some pretty good candidates. cheri beasley. someone who's not been seeing is a national figure. there's not been a lot of attention or resources paid to that, running a tight race in north carolina. tim ryan in a state where trump won by eight points, running a tight race in ohio. and let's not forget, wes moore. westmore is the third black person in u.s. history to be elected as governor. we should not lose sight of the strides that democrats are making independent of republicans. >> let me bring in our friend jen psaki who was to get in this conversation. one of the things i want to ask you jen, as about some of these races that may have some of the symbol of za'shawn their numerical import.

that's what we're all thinking, when steve surprised us about lauren boebert with the news about's home district. >> this is my dad's home district in colorado. we have all these family members who watch msnbc and think their political experts, and he's been telling me about adam fresh for months. it's been telling, you this guy's release, marie's really good, he can beat lauren boebert. and here we are. this is a kind of conversation you have when you are the party that is actually going to win a lot of seats. people who aside from my dad, i've never really heard of adam fresh. he is surpassing expectations. that's the kind of thing that's happening right now, which is pretty remarkable. i will say rachel though that there are also races that we are talking about that could go the other way right? and that shouldn't because they're in democratic districts. the night is young, but adam fritch has my word right now for this can surprise conversation we're having right

now. >> on the show we had a couple of weeks ago what he said was colorado is a very nor. laura barber stands out is a kind of politician she is. she probably wouldn't in florida, but in colorado they tend to like republicans who are nor me. >> there's been some hard-core cultural movements in colorado. but >> the evangelical part is there, in lauren boebert fits into the. but french is a normal type of guy. i'm >> getting what they're seeing in the margins has been very optimistic about fetterman, optimistic about new hampshire. what do you see in the margins to put some of these new conversations on the table? ? a these to call the shank of the night. >> the shank of the. look i, think i'm hearing a lot

about pennsylvania, and philly suburbs turnout really looking good for democrats. that is a place they really need people to go to the polls and vote, but they also have these early vote numbers that are probably not gonna be counted. some of them are being counted, but it's gonna take a while to count them. as those projections have come out, those are very heavily for democrats. no surprise given that is a place where democrats are heavily invested, voting in by mail, early voting, and put a lot of money into the. what is also interesting in pennsylvania, on the other side of it, is that doctor oz, he really needed to run up or run up the areas outside of philadelphia and pittsburgh. we aren't seeing that yet, and ultimately you have to get more votes from somewhere. those were the rural votes are. more republican votes, more reliable trump voters, or even people who don't like oz, but feel we want to win the senate, or have the majority in the senate. that's all these margins are

interesting, because it's not a case where fetterman's debate performances bring him down. there's really not a lot of evidence of that at all. and democrats are very, very excited and energized in pennsylvania. you're really seeing that today and also in the mail-in numbers. >> go to steven in just a minute or two to put some meat on those balls in terms of what you are hearing outside of pennsylvania and what we are seeing in terms of the vote and coming in of pennsylvania. do want to give you a couple of updates here. and the governor's race in the great state of texas, republican incumbent incumbent greg abbott is projected to be the winner. he's reelected, he is defeated democratic challenger beto or rock. texas governor greg abbott will be returning to office in that state. we have one of the race to characterize the. this is very interesting. this is a house race. look at this. virginia seventh district. democrat abigail spanberger projected to be the winner of this race. she is reelected against her

challenger yes lee vega. we've been watching the numbers come in on this, watching this is a bellwether race, watching this is a key race as to how well republicans will be able to perform potentially nationwide tonight. but the early numbers, as an amateur on, looking at these things, didn't look promising for abigail stand burger, but she came back. >> she's one of those candidates around on the infrastructure structure. took advantage of the infrastructure bill. shows that biden style of politics are actually having a good night. >> the infrastructure bill works as well as it does because donald trump failed so spectacularly on the subject in a way that it is hard for find a president in politics. infrastructure >> [laughs] >> let's remember. there was not a single piece of

paper written that pushed to be an infrastructure bill. >> so true [laughs] >> there was nothing voted on an ever, and joe biden comes in rounds and through. >> and republicans like it, which is right republicans voted against it crashing. it is so popular which is so -- which is why donald trump folded infrastructure week every week for three years was infrastructure week. >> a sign and said infrastructure -- >> abigail spanberger perennially the person we look to as the bellwether for democrats. she is the canary in the coal mine and a lot of ways, in literally every election cycle. she's a great candidate, great campaigner, and i'm sure we're gonna have more. >> we have a changing characterization in an important senate race. the ohio senate race this, is previously been characterized is nbc news too early to call.

it is still too early to call but nbc news now says the republican candidate j.d. vance is leading in this ohio senate race. we're gonna be getting more information about that. we're also gonna be taking a quick break right now because when we come back we're gonna be getting oh, sorry we have another call. i hereby interrupt my thought. that there is a projection in the pennsylvania governor's race. democrat josh superior is the projected winner against republican candidate doug mastriano. wow! in pennsylvania, again, you do not have a characterization of a winner level a leader even in the senate race, but in this governor's race, and pc news has projected the winner. josh shapiro versus doug mastriano was one of the starkest, i will say, at the wisconsin races, the governor's race, in the senate race in wisconsin a very stark contrast between those candidates but the pennsylvania governor's

race with doug mastriano and josh shapiro, it was harder to get two candidates who offered different visions for the state that were more different. >> the governor's race and the secretary of state race because the governor appointed the secretary of state of what is gonna happen in pennsylvania with mastriano is one of those issues, one of those possibilities that made joe biden say democracy is on the ballot. >> shapiro ran on extremism and abortion, and he tied it all together and one of the most powerful speeches of the midterm saturday night in philadelphia in that big event with president biden and president obama. he ran on abortion and he also was the target of antisemitic attacks on a daily basis. mastriano took money from gap. he was sort of the center of the extremist maga movement running against some very competent, very message, disciplined, very, very good candidate in joshua pirro. >> by the way josh appear had two things.

one of things his margin stays looking like that, this is not a state where you're necessarily going to see ticket split. you can kind of see where there might be somebody would vote for the governor of georgia, but also vote for warnock. it's hard to imagine a ticket splitting voter in pennsylvania. the other thing in, philadelphia one of the things that they were concerned about was can they get the under 25 vote out. young voters are all actually turning out in higher numbers than democrats expected him to. josh pyramidal younger play for younger votes in philadelphia, voters of color in philadelphia who were targeted and those issues abortion was a huge issue for voters under 25. and so if he maintains this kind of margin, might be a big enough margin to pull fetterman over the top. >> let's talk about that with steve. us post a break for commercial, but i hereby apologize, because i'm not doing that, but as long as we're talking, about this a very good point of joy is

making, about what the overall statewide race contest looks like in pennsylvania. and with nbc news now projecting at this hour 10:30 in the governor's race, we don't have a projection in the pennsylvania senate race. steve, can you tell us anything about synergy between those two campaigns and what this means for fetterman? >> so to put it into perspective, shapiro declared the winner. you see what the governor's race looks like right now keep your eye on a, honestly flipping over to the senate race. 55.7 down to 50.5. fetterman is five points behind shapiro in the senate race. right now it gives fetterman advantage of three enough points with that same sort of collection of votes. now what's interesting is, we start looking at this point in the night for where our counties that are fully counted or almost fully counted. how is fetterman's number looking there? let's take you through a bunch of those. we'll start in lackawannock county. as just a little bit more vote

to come in, almost fully counted. but it's significant to remember. biden won pennsylvania, he won it by 80,000 votes it was very close. if you're fetterman, you want to be hitting or ideally exceeding the biden number in every county account. so lackawannock county, big one, there you go, fetterman with only three precincts left and not many votes running three points better than joe biden. it take a look, this is republican county. almost all in, fetterman is running a half a point better than biden, oz is running a little bit worse than trump. start to see these throughout the state. again this is western pennsylvania, small county, but this is again, trump ran up huge numbers in western pennsylvania small counties. mehmet oz will run in clarion county all in, but it's five points less than trump got. take a look. go down a bed for county, all in for republicans. oz gets 80.7, what did trump get? you got 83 and a half.

let's go next door to fulton county. trump got 85 and a half, i was a sitting worst in the. noticing a pattern here? take a look at frankly county. trump got 71, i'll get 69. these are completed counties, and right now you're not seeing for any of them that i took you through where trump is even hitting the trump number and the trump number was not enough to carry the state in 2020. so much for the attention, ultimately when this picture comes in a focus will be in these four counties right side of philadelphia. these big suburban counties. we haven't had much of the voting in from the area. but the big reason why donald trump lost philadelphia pennsylvania in 2020, after winning in 2016, was because of chester county, and bucks county. if you lost them all in 2016, lost in 2020, if you lost them in 2020 by the margin he lost in 2016, basically would've been enough for him to win the state. he would've raced up biden advantage. so we don't have much bowden from, here but we'll be keeping

an eye on these numbers. you're looking at montgomery. this is mail vote from court democratic suburban county. we can't really put this number into perspective yet until we get the same day. bucks county again, we're looking heavily at mail vote, deliver county mail vote. we want to see the picture that emerges in these suburban counties. what i just took you through it all those others, we'll take you through here, and oz to have any chance has got to be exceeding trump's 2020 numbers in all of these suburban philadelphia counties, especially given what seems to be happening in the rest of the state. i'll just show you one more here, because we're not getting close to 90% in allegheny county. that pick mail vote dump at the start of the night. we said we get more republican, but again where trump is trying to get here to 40%. we're out about 90% of the vote in now in allegheny county. he moved his number up for more started, he's at 34, he wants to be at 40 in allegheny county. >> steve, this is a question that may be coming from a point

of ignorance so feel free to tell me if my premise is wrong. but i reported yesterday on john fetterman's essentially public memo, kind of public letter telling the media, telling his supporters how to think about the real results are coming in from pennsylvania. he was saying the way that how pennsylvanians forced account by law it's something that will make it look like the democrats as well behind. and so even though the republicans may look like they are way ahead they have to wait till it's all in, and everybody has to be patient, because the surge in democratic votes will come in late. he was describing that procedurally to people for their expectations to what the vote count would be like. was he wrong in describing that that's how the vote would come in? or is he just doing better than expected so it doesn't look like the republicans or head even though that is the way the vote is being counted? >> no, he was describing i heard a lot a lot of expectations on how the vote was gonna be reported in pennsylvania and other states was based on how it was

reported in the 2020 election. we were getting in a katie cases from election officials that hey they had interviews come up with new lessons, new plans. so right off the bat tonight, for folks who are watching this, all right off the bat within five minutes of poll closings got 100 something thousand mail votes from allegheny county, totally different from 2020. a few minutes later, we got something like 60,000 mail votes here from philadelphia, again totally different. bunch of other counties released huge batches of mail votes. so fetterman started the night with what really looks like the complete opposite of 2020 when donald trump built that bigly based on the same day vote. we've seen betterment build a big early lead in the tally based on the mail vote being released first and so many places, and then oz playing catch-up of the republican counties and same-day voters come in. but as we are showing you, this really becomes a test of okay fine, we've got 60% statewide, let's look at the counties where we got all the vote in, and let's measure them against 2020, let's see if one parties

doing a little better or worse than 2020. so far the trend that we are seeing, there's a lot more still to come here, but the trend that we are seeing is that oz is not really hitting those trump 2020 numbers. he's coming close, but he's not quite hitting them. fetterman's doing a little better than those biden 2020 numbers. again biden won the state by 80,000 votes in 2020. really eager to see more votes come in these philadelphia suburbs. again we, underscored how crucial it is but it's an entirely different vote reporting pattern that we saw in 2020. >> steve we want to stick with us for a little bit. nicole has a question for you, but i gotta interrupt for allow you to do that. i have a characterization to make. in the missouri senate race, and d.c. news is not projecting at this hour that in the missouri senate race the republican candidate eric schmidt is the projected winner. then missouri senate, also in the iowa senate race, longtime incumbent republican chuck grassley is projected to be

reelected to his seat. we all saw the changing characterization in one governor's race. this is the governor's race in kansas. it's an interesting kansas governor's race. we have an incumbent democrat, democrat governor laura kelly this was previously characterized to really nicholas, nothing characterizes too close to call. between laura kelly and republican challenger derek schmidt. against kansas governor too close to call. we had to have a protection in new mexico governor's race though. the incumbent democrat there michelle lujan griffin is projected to be reelected as new mexico governor. she plays faced a strong challenge for republican challenger mark ron chatty, but she will be governor for another term new mexico. nick all, you wanted to ask something about? >> steve, democratic operatives suggested to me today that one of the unknowns would be the same day or the election day democratic vote. is there anything surprising you about how that's coming in?

>> that is largely what we're waiting to find out about what's happening in these democratic suburbs. look at a place like delaware county, this could be a core democratic county, looking at mail-in ballots to give that fundamental give that kind of early advantage. looking at mail ballots to give, put this into some kind of perspective. montgomery county is a core democratic county. big one right outside philadelphia. with 26 points for biden. so when you see fetterman chalk this great these, or mail about a. so when the same-day gets counted, the tally released, where does this fetterman number will come down, how far will it come down? will it land north of that by number, at that by number. oz is really gonna need it to land south of that by number. if you look back one more time, this is the point was making. trump got clobbered in the philadelphia suburbs and both 2016 in 2020. but montgomery lost by 21 points in 2016 and he, lost by

26 points in 2020. the difference if he had had the 2016 performance on montgomery and in boxing in chester and in delaware, then basically would've erased the 80,000 vote margin joe biden won the state by. if you're mehmet oz, he came into the night wanted to get trump's 2016 levels in the philadelphia suburbs. the way it's going, you may have to exceed those. but it remains to be seen, because we're waiting on the same day votes in those counties right now. i think that's gonna be potentially the ball game. >> when you get a little bit of expert help in these pennsylvania numbers that we're looking to from somebody who's been there done that. david plouffe is one of our political insiders tonight. he's been watching these numbers and results come in beside us. david i, want to get your take by democrat win by josh appear on, in the governor's race, and what now looks to be a very close while fought race for that senate seat? >> joshua pirro ran a fantastic race. mastriano is a weak candidate,

but it's still pennsylvania so i think we should all look very carefully at the campaign he ran and won. he really put up great margins. steve took us through the map. that's what democrats have to do in places like wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan if we're gonna get competitive against state would ohio. we gotta cut down those rural margins. that's what oz has done. pennsylvania's looking very strong right now. we have to look to see what happens out west. but i think you have to say donald trump is now presided over to disastrous midterm elections. one relieves in the white house in 2018. but given the history of presidents in power, democrats controlling all of washington, inflation, this should've been a much stronger night for republicans. but for reasons for that. but at the top of them is donald trump. he's deeply unpopular, he supported a bunch of horrible senate candidates who may end up coughing the football here. pennsylvania may be a great example of that. >> david can i ask you while we

have you, if there's any single result or single trend that is evidence of that is surprise you the most tonight? obviously, all of us looking at this, and listening to seismic shooters projections. sort of weigh everything what you know, someone who's been inside these campaigns, what has struck you as legitimately unpredictable in tonight's results? first of all, the divergence from florida, which you know sugarcoat it disaster for democrats. but there's a motor on florida, even though the rest of the country republicans are underperforming expectations and there's been no surprise republican win. if anything, we may be looking at some surprise democrat wins like the race in colorado. i'm gonna be looking very carefully at the hispanic vote, though, in places like nevada and arizona. i don't think we're gonna see anything like we saw in florida, of course, but you like to see, as a democrat, you like to see the margins that we've historically gotten there, which is how we win those tough

races. i think as we unpack, those places like new hampshire, places like colorado, republicans just in last few days we're talking about those could be races that can win and they're gonna lose some pretty handily. i think a lot of suburban voters, we sought an 18, we saw in 20, not just stuck with democratic candidates, but must of produce pretty strong turnout. >> david plouffe, thank you very much, it's 10:45 right now on the east coast, which means our next poll closings are going to be at 11 pm, at the top of this hour. at 11 pm, i'm gonna be looking at close in california, and idaho, in oregon, and in washington. one of the so-called sleeper races of the year, this year, is that washington -- excuse, me that oregon covers race, where there is basically a three-way race that may put oregon in a position of potentially having a republican governor, despite oregon leaning so blue overall as a state. we have a characterization to make in another closely watched

house race. this is kansas, the third district. this is a race where you've got both interesting candidates on both sides, but also one of those districts that is seen as a potential bellwether. this was a pick up the republicans really wanted, they did not get it. this is kansas city's third congressional district, the incumbent democrat there is cherice davids, her republican challenger was amanda activists, i think republicans expected this one but nbc can project that sharice will be returning to the house. as we take through some of these house races, obviously we're looking at individual ones for bellwether status, and just for president status. then there's the overall numbers, too, in terms of control of the house. is it conceivable that the republicans won't win control of the house. is that even within the realm of the possibility? >> at this point, it is, it is conceivable, that's not a prediction or anything. but i'm telling, you i keep -- its 10:45 pm i'll take you

through some of the new new york city's that are interesting, but what only starting on the big picture question, and take a look at the election. we organized sort of bite here, here starting with the front line of republican attack, here, these are the most vulnerable democratic seats on paper, because these are the seeds that voted for donald trump. what you see, everyone's red as a republican flipped. these are all districts we basically heat about the start of the night, florida, tennessee, five. all five of these districts in redistricting were redrawn, basically, in order to elect republicans, they all elected republicans, they all represent flips. we came into the night knowing that there is almost no circumstance where democrat would win a single one of these. these are the five that were kind of baked-in, but notice that nothing else has been colored in on this first line of attack, for republicans, let's start going through some of these, we've been following this stream tonight.

and lucas county, we got a lot of votes still to come in lucas county, democratic part of that district, we just showed you lackawanna county in pennsylvania, where most of the voters, in and john fetterman is running ahead of divide a number, the congressman from that area's matt cartwright, there's more could vote to be counted, the cartwright you see with more the vote to be counted. then there's some discrepancy here in terms of the mail vote this accounts for. the democrats are very much in the game, here the second district of maine, this is donald trump has won the electoral vote from this district in maine. think about the electoral votes by -- trump twice when the six district, twice about the electoral vote out of it, he's running against bruce pollack when. one thing to keep in mind is that main does instant runoff voting. so if golden fits finishes ahead of tele-, quinn that will go to an instant runoff. >> we have an important call in a very closely watched race,

this is a senate race protection, in the great state of new hampshire. republicans really wanted to pick off incumbent democratic senator maggie hassan, they have failed in their efforts to do. so may you house, and the incumbent democratic senator will be returning to that new state senate, having beaten back a challenge from republican don baltic. don bolduc was not the person who odds makers wanted to win, on the republican side, if there are hoping for a closer contest there. but he put up a race against her put the fear into democrats that they might you lose that seat. at this hour, the democrats hold 42, seats the republicans hold 43, 15 seats remain undecided. steve, back to you. sorry, hold, on i'm have told that should not go back to, because i can interrupt myself again. in the connecticut u.s. senate race, the democratic incumbent richard blumenthal will also be returning to the united states senate. again, so we just had colors in new hampshire, and in

connecticut democratic incumbents winning those seats, and they'll be reelected. that puts us at 40 3:43, as the balance of power in seats that have been assigned to either party in the senate, 14 seats remain undecided, and i go to international to get? >> we need a meme of two rachel, 's like a spider-man meme for the pointing at each other. >> i can just do that myself. -- >> if we are still here, chase oliver down in georgia, 40 3:43, this could come down to georgia, and deliver it where he's pulling up two points. >> can we bring up to board, it's a three, but it has to be. right now this is 83% in, neither walker nor warnock is at 50%. this is considered to be too close to call, the reason mr. oliver is there, even though he doesn't have a chance, is

because what he has a chance of doing his nine either candidate the chance to get to 50%, and neither of them gets to 50%, there is another election on the sixth -- december 6th, which very well could decide control. >> and it will come down to that guy chase oliver, we don't know at this stage, but that weirdness of all of it, -- just a possibility of talking to folks in new hampshire, i mean nevada, that that one might come down to some issues as well. that races very sluggish, and there are some issues with mail, -- you could have two races in the cycle that are, remember when that happened with al franklin, it took six months to figure out. >> a race, that take it back. >> okay this to me is now. >> chris hayes is within political insiders right now, boy has a lot happened in the past 20 minutes or so.

chris, we want to hear from you guys on this. >> a lot has happened, and processing it all here with david plouffe, jen, psaki and michael steele. where should we start, let's start on shapiro, which i think, pulling expectations was that he would win. but the call of this early in the night, has to leave democrats feeling pretty good. >> yes, he ran a great race. he's actually a democrat that a lot of democrats should watch. because he was running such a good race, and was so ahead for so long, i don't know that a lot of people tune in closely, but it's good for other democrats running in pennsylvania, it's good for fetterman as well. so yeah, it's a very good sign right now. this night is very different, we are just talking about, from what we are all that the snow is gonna look like. >> i agree with, you say more about that. >> i think early, on for the past couple of days, there's been this kind of doomsday red wave prediction. and most of the democrats i've been talking to have said, make

sure people know, that early vote, and vote by mail, it could be counted late, it's gonna be really close. a lot of these races will be really close, but there are races that democrats are winning, and abigail spanberger, for example, is a big big one for democrats. the rhode island congressional race, where republicans are thinking that we're gonna win. the new hampshire, i'm hearing from new hampshire folks on the ground, they're feeling very good about the house races, but maggie hassan, those are all races just a couple of days ago, people were predicting would be won by democrats. >> there is a narrative that became completely untethered from the data, at a certain point. -- i made the mistake of checking twitter 5:30 in the morning. oh, go ahead. i'm gonna make a projection right now, we have a projection in that ohio senate race, where nbc news is currently projecting that j.d. vance, he of formerly yell, of silicon valley, will be joining the u.s. senate. defeating tim ryan, congressman

from youngstown area, who ran -- those numbers are 50 4:46. they look like the gravity, or the partisan makeup of ohio in the year 2022, pulling that race to its fundamental. >> in many respects that's true, i think we inevitably look at that race, particularly given the way democrats sort of looked at it themselves. >> because they didn't send any money. >> they didn't send any money, the brothers out there by himself saying, hello, i can win this. you have to take that 7% differential, i think, with a little bit of salt there, because it's not necessarily reflective of a full-throated competitive campaign, from the national level, the dnc, you state party organizations, coordinating to run that way. not to take away from vance. >> on the other side, the

senate leadership fund, which is a super pac that mcconnell definitely runs, didn't put money there. >> i think what's fascinating about tonight, the margin might be surprising in terms of republicans, there's not a single race so far, we still a lot of western races so far that's been no surprise republican win. i think one of the reasons there is so much to england was because of polling. and 16, 18, and a little bit in 20, there's a belief that the polls show democrats up 44 to 45, they must really be down 50 1:49. and clearly, the bottom did not follow, i think you see an exceptional performance in suburban areas by democrats, which has been such a strength of us, in prior elections. >> when we look at that ohio race so we just called for j.d. vance, who will be joining the u.s. senate, it appears, according to nbc projections, that margin is about the trump margin, right? so look at spanberger, that was a biden plus seven, she's

running at about plus four. it was a young can win, right. so in terms of where we, are what the electorate shows, out what they look like, they're looking like a 2020-inch electorate, maybe a little more, as opposed to a 2010 electorate, our 2014. >> such an important -- this was supposed to be an election where joe biden lost so many seats it was embarrassing for him to wake up tomorrow morning, and the president. and it's not going to be. i gotta, say i disagree with you a little bit on ohio. there's always, like there should be more money never, raise money doesn't grow on trees in politics. and this raises about the margin, as you said, that trump won and beat biden by. tim ryan ran a great race, and he's very much a candidate who fits ohio. so to me, it still raises the question of whether ohio is a state that you're gonna invest in and that's money and moving forward. >> as the only chairman her who's not to make these

decisions, you gotta call the shot, it's not just the analytics, it's what the ground is telling you. and if the candidate -- if you've got a candidate like tim on the ground like ohio, we saw the races, the data before we get in the night, that show the competitiveness of the race. and you gotta make a call and say, you know, what about 50 races around the, country in each of the, states we're gonna put a little extra love here. >> where do you not spend money than? and cheri beasley looked at this even closer than tim ryan. >> this is the thing i was gonna say. >> that's a problem 2022, we spend it everywhere, it's called, planning it's understanding where your ground game is gonna be, and putting the resources there, not just two weeks into the cycle, but 18 months out. 13 months. >> but in terms of that, in terms of this north carolina race, because cheri beasley is very similar story -- that's a place where you might see even more of that monday morning quarterbacking, which he could do a lot of turnout in

north carolina. >> let's be honest as -- good campaigns don't make up six point losses, they could basically get your point point and a half, even north carolina was very close. i will say, this you talk about shapiro, so popularly of ohio in florida are not gonna be long terms for florida. i hope they come, back but let's be realistic now. pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin must be. shapiro's, victory fetterman's performance, michigan looks very good right now for democrats. wisconsin is gonna be close, in a non presidential year. it shows that we stole a pathway to put all those towards 2024. final quick comment. master, no bull doc, these trump guys, i think one of the lessons tonight because you can't throw these people to the electorate and just expect -- >> that's a lesson you've learned, that's a lesson you've learned. that's a question, though, candidates matter.

>> we're coming right up to the 11:00 hour, 11:00 on the east coast, which means we are expecting yet more poll closings. the poll closings that are coming up i'm a sentiment in our california, and ohio, and oregon, and washington. we will bring you characterizations of those where uses a soon as those polls close. i should also tell, you our political insiders were just talking there a moment ago, about the projected winner in the pennsylvania governor's race. doug master no was a republican challenger, the democratic attorney general josh shapiro is the winner, we're expecting a victory speech from joshua pirro, a few minutes -- a few moments after the top of the hour, to the extent that we are able, will try to bring you some that joshua pirro victory speech in pennsylvania, in pennsylvania governor's race right after these polls close. at 11:00 on the east coast, we have polls closing in four states, nbc news election desk,

can project that this, our these races as follows. in a california senate race, the projected winner's democratic incumbent alex padilla, he will be returning to the united states senate. and the idaho senate race -- in oregon senate race, it is right now too early to call, with training commit democrat ron wyden, and his republican chef challenger perkins. and the washington center a,'s got democrat patty murray, facing a republican challenge from patty smiley, that race is also too close to call. looking out some of the governors races, california's governor's race incumbent democratic governor gavin newsom, it's projected to have won that race. he will be reelected as california governor, and idaho governor's race, the incumbent republican is brad little, he's also protected as a winner, he'll be projected to be reelected to that race. and then oregon governor's race,

which is very interesting, one it is too early to call between democrat tina kotek, and a republican christine jason. it's worth watching a third party candidate, who may be determinative in that affects, but we shall see. and wisconsin senate, race recapping some of our previous races here, but actually this one is a changing characterization, this one was too early to, call but now it's too close to call, between ron johnson and his democratic how challenger mandela barnes. in the georgia senate race, it is too close to call between herschel walker and raphael warnock, with 86% of the vote in. in the north carolina senate race, with just over 90% of the vote in, it is too close to call between republican dead bug, and democrats cheri beasley. in the pennsylvania senate race, we've got about 71% of the vote in it is too early to call between john fetterman, the democrat, and republican met him at all this. and, in the arizona senate race,

the arizona senate race we've got 51% of the vote in, it is too early to call between democratic incumbent mark kelly, and republican challenger blake masters. at this hour, this is for control -- holding 44 with that dwindling number of houses, he's 11 senate seats still to be called. there is one house race that we want to point out here, this is the vermont at large house race, and the reason we are highlighting this race in particular, between back a balance, and lyman. is that in this race, if that cabal and wins this she will be the first person ever elected to vermont well-being female, we've never had a woman elected either to the house or the senate from the great state of vermont. if that cabal and wins this race, she will make history in that way, in vermont. do we also have a

characterization on the vermont abortion race? we'll get back to that in just a moment. we have a call in a governor's race in georgia. incumbent republican brian kemp is projected to be reelected, as georgia governor. democrat stacey abrams versus challenger, but brian kemp will return to the governor's mansion in the great state of georgia. and, as i just mentioned just a moment ago, we are keeping an eye on some of these abortion measures around the country. vermont is one of three states where voters were asked to in shrine reproductive rights, reproductive liberty in the state constitution. that has won in vermont, the yes vote is a vote to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, in vermont. that measure has won in vermont. lots going on there. at this point, the fast and furious nature of this is starting to feel slightly overwhelming, although i think we're getting a stronger sense of some of these -- >> you mentioned, josh shapiro

would give a victory speech, it'll be interesting to hear of him mentions a call from dog master no. he was one of the election deniers, and -- who would not accept the results of the election. usually the first thing that a victor says, is that i got a nice call from my opponent, we'll bc waiting to see if he says that. >> remember when the candidates used to wait for them to, call it would be rude of me to give my victory speech if i haven't gotten my concession phone call yet. we are past that, i guessed. >> joe biden still waiting for his call. i just want to reiterate, we have the j.d. vance call in ohio, which trump will claim as a victory. but beyond that, dan cox, maryland, donald ike, new hampshire, mehmet oz is facing a tight race in pennsylvania. this is the candidate that trump went to the mat for after dave mccormack effectively begged trump for the endorsement of pennsylvania, and might have run a better race and mehmet oz this run. herschel walker, we're talking about, you know, what is the difference, i don't have that

-- >> a very tight race in georgia. >> blake masters, these are people -- this is trump's team. and they are not perform to the degree that i think trump wanted. >> it's about where you spend this money in house important. the dnc flew $90 million into this that's three times more than 2018, everybody is waiting for the same day votes, which are not as republican as before, because what democrats have been doing through the country's dave in driving the same day vote, and -- i think democrats, if cheri beasley doesn't pull it off, there's gonna be a question of whether they should get that money there. because it's obvious they should have momentum, as many question of whether they put money in ohio, because they didn't banana see either, because it looks like what's helping democrats. one of them is still saves,

abortion and people's passion on that to, young voters were passionate about abortion. young voters are coming through for them. ground game. it definitely appears and house races and some of the statewide races. >> on the house, races on that point, i'm still a bit shocked about an interaction i had a bit ago with steve, where i said is it even possible that democrats might hole control of the house. steve seem to suggest -- i wasn't dreaming, right? that actually happened, where steve was like that's within the realm of possibility. steve, can he do that again, can you show me what you meant. >> yes, the answer is yes. they have a chance, we can take you through it, i again, i've been stressing this all night, we rank these districts, by vulnerability for democrats. he said at the start of the night, republicans have basically drawn themselves five seats. they want those pisces relatively early in the night, and we still haven't seen any

other calls in this category. so for democrats, i give you a couple of examples, here the ninth district of ohio second district of maine, this is an instant runoff district, so golden's gotta finish ahead of publicly on us, he has to win 15th win it outright tonight, just a lot of vote to come. pennsylvania's eight district, we showed you how john fetterman was over performing it -- mac cartwright, the democratic congressman, again these are all trump districts i'm showing you, trump carried them. all democrats represent them in congress right now. there are a couple of places, here 15th district of texas, this is south texas, this is that part of texas heavily hispanic, the really moved dramatically away from the democrats. you can see this was a district of the theresa west districts. this may well end up being a republican pick up here. you can see democrats really,

no defending, or at least potentially defending a lot of the stuff in here. so they've got to limit -- the first to democrats, here is to limit the number of lawsuits here. they've got, five. >> take a look at, this thing it's a little funky, but now let me show you the vulnerable democratic seats, considering his past 11:00 on the east coast these are districts that were carried by joe biden, the republicans were targeting, and in many cases feeling very good about, we haven't called a single one of these districts for a republican, now at 11:00, in fact we called it, before kansas, three cherice davids. this is heavily based in johnson county, kansas. this district was actually redrawn and redistricting, to be more favorable to the republican. >> steve, i'm sorry to interrupt, you we have a projection in an important race. >> this is a governor's race in new york, nbc news at this hour,

can project the democratic incumbent kathy hochul is elected as new york governor. it may not seem from 30,000 feet like a democrat winning and your governors races a big deal, but there is a scare for democrats here, with an unexpectedly strong challenge from republican leaders. eldon but he's come short of that challenge. kathy hochul will remain as new york's governor, back to steve. >> yeah, new york is a big part of the story when we're talking about the battle for house control here, again, just showing you some of these vulnerable democratic seats, here republicans have been thinking, i'm just showing you where they're stand right here. -- he was 70, five you're 80% of the vote in. we've been talking about the first district of indiana, around gary and hammond all night, now getting over 80% of the vote, -- so a 53%. again, the name of the game here for republicans, they haven't had a single one calvert weekends yet, democrats want to defend as many of these as possible. they have to defend the lion's share the seats, in that column, and this is where new york

comes into it. look at all these vulnerable democratic, seats in new york. so that was one of the aspects of the governors, raise the reader so crucial, no collusion, or even if the only wins by a small margin, all of these democratic held house seats in new york, does it jeopardize them? you can take a look at some of these right here, democratic pat ryan won the special election over the, summer in new york. this is what his race was looking like right now. there's a big, one sean patrick maloney, the chair of the deep triple sees in some trouble two thirds of the vote counted in his district, all of the biggest outstanding vote in this district is from westchester county. most democratic friendly part of it. we'll see what the remaining votes, what happens there, we showed you rhode island to, republicans were very excited about, this 92% of the vote. and you could see allen, feng still running three points behind right there. henry cuellar, conservative democrat from deep south texas. this is one of the districts to

move heavily towards trump, but cuellar getting some good numbers, encouraging numbers for him out of there. we do have one call now here, of these vulnerable democratic seats, it just came in the last few minutes, this is the virginia beach area, second district, this goes to republicans. so that's the sixth game for republicans that we've shown you, but keep this in mind, at the start of the night, we said there was three cheers to virginia. we said that the second district was kind of the baseline, republicans just are okay night would get virginia to, and nothing else. on a good night to get virginia to a virginia seven. -- they're gonna get virginia to. so that tells you the kind of night overall it's been. and the question becomes, now gonna be so positive for the democrats, that they are in the game for control in the house. that's where the set of districts comes into play, this is where democrats are on offense. there's a couple that are surprises tied to this list,

and will add to this list. this is where democrats are on offense, -- so the gains that showed you. take a look at illinois's 13 district, this one was redrawn, used to be a republican held district, the illinois democrats were aggressive with the redistricting, and we could see the democratic more than 60% of the vote was leaning here, this district, as it was redrawn is a biden plus 11 to strike. if this holds as a democratic win, it's a pick up. it offsets one of those republican gains i showed you. this, if it holds, is now 14 point advantage for hillary sole over -- would be a democratic pick up. this is the district where republicans ousted peter meijer, the pro impeachment republican in the primary, replaced with the pro trump gibbs, this will be a pick up for democrats, would offset what i was showing you earlier. texas 30, for this is where over the summer mira flores, deep south texas, trended away

from the democrats in 2020, this summer miraflores won a special election. we spent a gonzalez, actually is a member of congress. so this is a republican see right now, that has two republicans running it. so this would be, if gonzales holds on, here this would be again for democrats, those potentially offset a loss that we are showing in the 15th district. we're getting up to 90% of the vote in, here since city councilman greg linesman continues to leave steve shabbat. -- the republican area, basically all, in cincinnati, still votes to come and lands minutes ahead. everything i'm trying to horribly a democrat again, north carolina i 13 is coming down to the wire.

we have no mexico too. this was the redrawn new mexico, this is also very aggressive, this is a republican district was really trying to become a biden plus six districts. if it heralds, the republican incumbent, look at this with more than three quarters of a vote, in event peril is trailing in the tally right now. , again these would all be democratic pick ups, if everything that i'm showing you holds here, these all be democratic pickups, and what i'm showing you so far, if they, hold huge if there, would offset those republican game so we already showed you on the first page. and so but what becomes key at this point, and was starting to come into focus, i think, it's first of all how important in the next couple of hours those races in new york are. five democratic held seats, i think we're getting a lot of information in the next couple of hours, can democrats hold those seats. and the other major piece of this, if democrats can emerge from that, without suffering

too much damage, california is a place for democrats, you can see it right here. one, two, three, four republican districts in california. one by the joe biden. so if the democrats can get through the next couple of hours, and have those republican gains in single digits they would have a chance to control the house, and he really would look at an election that's coming down to, can i pick off these republican held seats out in california? and i'd warn you ahead of time, if it does come down to that, the count in california really is a slow one. it will take weeks. and if we're in a situation where this is just a couple of seats, these are the districts that are gonna decide it. and we come down to weeks. >> steve, i have to ask you about one other one, just because i'm desperately curious, before we go, can i ask you about colorado three? >> i'm curious myself. and you notice what a surprise

it was, that's why we don't have it on the list, they're particulate, almost nothing has happened since we checked in, i think they're at 72% the last time we checked in but it remains basically a four-point advantage for the democrat, adam fresh over lauren boebert, a collective counties here. >> i was just gonna, say we don't know anything about what's stella standing. show you real grand, here this is trump by 18. and what we've been seeing is that fresh has been running, about 567 points ahead of biden's number. so potentially this could be a good county for him, if he seven points ahead or something, he could limit the losses here. the biden suffered. if you look at the counties that are coming, in its accord democratic county, about some democratic areas in this district. trump got 60%, boebert sitting down to 65. almost a ten-point improvement

for adam fresh here, it's a big part of the district here. so he seems very much in the game, although seaside just took you, through if he pulls it out, that's a democratic game. >> we have a projection to, make an important and closer watch u.s. senate, race this is the u.s. senate race, in the great state of north carolina. this is an open senate, feet made open by republican retirement at the projected winner, is a republican candidate. republican congressman ted budd, had a hard fought race against democrat cheri beasley, who is a former state supreme court justice, but ted budd is the projected winner, in north carolina. on a bring in claire mccaskill, in response to some of the stuff that we have just been hearing. in response to this north carolina race that we've just had the protection in, claire. >> yeah, listen, it's always hard when you go, gosh, if we could just put more money in their. elise keep in mind, where the

investments were made, and the results we are seeing. and here's one thing i want to say, if we pull off arizona, and nevada, which my sources tell me it looks very good, both places. if we win those two seats, and win pennsylvania, which also looks good, not there's a runoff in georgia, it's not for control of the senate. it's 4:51 in the senate. and will all those voters in georgia, where holding their noses and voting for herschel walker, just because they want republican control of the senate, are they going to be excited about coming out and voting for that guy? stand-alone? if the control of the senate has already been decided? so it's heartbreaking to see cheri beasley come back close. it's heartbreaking, that we didn't have the ground came in ohio, and north carolina that we'd like to see. but it just shows us, that we

can't give up on those states, especially north carolina. because that's a state that should definitely be in play, for the presidential. overall, rachel, it's been a good night for women. it's been a bad night for donald trump. >> that's interesting, we cheri beasley to, we were all talking here, while we weren't on camera about having had around our shows in talking to her, what an impressive candidate, and person she is. so kind of result we've seen in north carolina, where she was not gonna end up in the winter, but she is now on everybody's radar as a person needs to have some sort of national role in democratic politics what an impressive person what an impressive candidate even though she didn't win. we >> talked about this the other day, we talked about the obama effect. democrats are gonna have to be thinking, tonight should we have sent obama there? this is such a narrow margin. and the idea that this wasn't competitive, again, barack obama won that state in 2008 by

14,000 votes. the governor's democrat, democrats have to start rethinking what they think are winnable states. there's so fix it on six of florida. north carolina is a state where they should be investing. $90 million they spend on the ground, this was a state that didn't get intentionally investment. think towards the, and sharpies lose basic out of money. think about how the ground game is work for democrats, now spending on crown times really done wonders for them to the states, the narrative was there supposed to get washed out of some red wave, which i think was bs, honestly. in a state. >> i have to interrupt with a characterization, nbc news cannot project in the senate, race in a great state of oregon, that incumbent senator ron wyden has been reelected to the

senate in oregon. -- this is why we've been talking about, it's a sleeper race to the year, it it's no longer that much of a sleeper. but in this case, we've got a democrat, the republican must raisin, and the interdependent candidate miss johnson, and in this case this is now considered to be not too early to call, but too close to call. it is a change in the characterization of the race, this is a very unusual sight of dynamics in this race. republicans have been hoping that this dynamic would result in oregon picking a republican governor, which seem strange to be in the overall blue cast a state. this is too close to call it half the vote in the state of oregon. we have an interesting house race where we can make a projection, steve had been talking about this all night. this is the ninth congressional district in a state of ohio,

democratic incumbent marcy camped, are facing mayor majeski, made number statements that caused even the house republican campaign committee, to abandon him. that may or may not have made a difference, but marcy captors going back to the house. we have one other characterization that we can now make, just coming in right now, in the washing in u.s. senate race, democratic incumbent patty murray. this is not a shoe in race, but democratic incumbent senator kathy murray will be returning to the united states senate. this is the new characterization in the pennsylvania senate race. it is too early to call, but i want to make sure they get this right john fetterman is now described by nbc news's been in the lead in this race. i want to go back to claire mccaskill on this given what we are just describing, claire? >> yeah so it's really interesting isn't it that we had the republicans scare right

around halloween. where all these republican polls came out and really shifted the national media narrative. to owe the sky is falling, patty murray is in trouble, and they can even pick up connecticut, and gladiola. as it turned out, those republican polls remodeling, wrong patty murray's gonna win comfortably. we did not have the scares that we thought we'd have, and we're talking about beating lauren boebert in colorado. this is very very good, and abortion was on women's minds in this election. people said oh it's crime, it's the border, it's not abortion. no, you've got kentucky -- the last time i looked, i don't know when you guys looked last. the last time i looked 53% of the voters in kentucky are sane to protect women's freedoms,

when it comes to reproductive health and abortion. this is a problem they're gonna have going forward -- you're gonna keep driving to make all the laws in the country as bad as they are in my state. it is not a winner for the republican party, and i think was one of the big motivators for the young voters, the turned out for us like they never have before. it appears right now, that is the case. >> you know, it's interesting claire, i'm glad you brought that up about that abortion ban, we've got kentucky in montana, not similar legislation with both antiabortion legislation that voters are going to be looking at tonight, and in those three states where those pro reproductive rights measures. we've already seen one call on why those measures in vermont but there will be a lot to parse here, this is the status right now in montana, only 16% in right here, but this is a

yes vote, and i know voters to vote against it, very early days in montana, a leading. but what she's saying in terms of how abortion may be playing not just among voters and whether that might have screwed up some of the modeling and some of the polling plans on both sides. >> he said it wasn't showing, up it wasn't showing up. >> let's just be clear, there is a reality of what's happening tonight, and that is the reality of where the republican party is, ted budd who just won the north carolina senate race, was a cosponsor in the house the 15-week abortion ban. this person is now in the senate, the gop is gonna have to reconcile what they've been on record, the legislation they have proposed, with the political reality that is emerging tonight, which is that the voting public and their republican party are not on the same page. when it comes to reproductive rights. >> there's never stop to slow the republican party before. >> but the level of extremism

that we're now seeing, the power of them to actually enact some of the stuff of the state level. the rubber is made in the, road so to speak. >> they are going to demand, more because the other co-sponsor of that lindsey graham bill is marco rubio, who's going back to the senate, and they're going to be politically incentivized to go forward, because the people in the antiabortion movement, they don't want to just have a few states that have abortion bans, they want to band period, they are abolitionists in their mind, that's what they call themselves. they're going to push, and push, and push. they're not gonna be satisfied, for people to think this team is now into the cattle, because they finally got row overturned, you're wrong. because think about what they've, said they've said that -- iuds boarded chase. idf's. you think they're gonna stop just because they've got the supreme court? no. and lindsey graham is the person who has no filter, so you said it allowed, and then put a bill together, and a lot of the republicans, to your

point about winning, are co-sponsors of that bill. >> the woman who got more votes than any other woman running tonight, is now the elected governor of new york, and her challenge in this campaign, was getting voters in new york city to get out and go vote for governor, because it's something -- it happens an off year elections, doesn't happen in presidential elections, it's one of the challenges. the media, especially the new york media, was able to imagine that she was somehow being challenged -- especially on this issue of crime in this race, it's not gonna be close to, she is crushing the republican candidate. one of the way she did it was to make it very very clear. what the abortion rights mean in new york state, and what it means to have her as governor's said is republican governor. so the issue played all over this map in ways that won't leap out at you. like really, new york, why

would they care about that? there were voters went to the polls today new york city, who only went because of roe v. wade. and kathy hochul's numbers, she's gonna, when nothing was gonna prevent her from winning but the margins might have been more narrow. the crime, things by the, way let's note, was a complete mirage, created by $11 million thrown in there by ron louder, who is very positively profiled in the new york times the other day, just before the election. in an article in which he actually said, he actually said, i'm gonna read the quote, you couldn't pay me to get on the subway. well it turns out, you can't pay him to do anything. because his mother made so much money, he has never had to work a day in his life. but ron ladders imagination of what happens in the subway, is different from the 3 million

new yorkers every day who use it every single day, and they showed up at the polls today, and this is who the governors, and a crime issue just evaporated. >> let's go now to pennsylvania, where joshua pirro is giving his victory speech, let's listen to a bit about this, we have to take a break on the other side of, it but we'll be right back. >> they have sacrificed so much to give me this opportunity, to serve. and we have a family that has been with us all together, making that sacrifice possible. i'm so grateful -- my mom, dad judy and steve. i'm so grateful for you -- and john, and i'm so profoundly grateful to my brother and sister, adam and rebecca, and they're wonderful families. we are all about family, and they have always been there for, me and i love you also very much.

i'm also profoundly grateful to have a partner in the this process, a history making partner in this process, our next lieutenant governor, alston davis. alston and blair have become friends to me and lori, and it will soon be friends to all pennsylvanians. austin will redefine the field of lieutenant governor, mark my words. sort of these last 14 months of this campaign, i spent a whole lot of time crisscrossing the commonwealth. showing up at your hunt clubs, your union hall's, having an opportunity to talk to you under street corners, and in front of our schools. and i want you to know, i've done a lot of listening. and a whole lot of learning,

and a whole lot of growing as a result of those conversations. you've helped me, by sharing your hopes and fears, your dreams in your worries, you've helped me become a better man. and, you have humbled me along the way. rural, urban, suburban folks across this commonwealth, who have had the opportunity to talk with, basically they all want the same thing. they want a real opportunity for good schools, safe communities, and an economy that just gives everybody a shot. no matter how different our commonwealth looks, no matter how different to this rain is, those are the basic values that every single pennsylvania has a right to, and then i'm gonna write fight to deliver for. ethnicity inheritance, nigerian east central from you.

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the question related to, abortion that was put to california voters tonight. a yes vote was to shine reproductive rights, reproductive liberties in the state constitution in california nbc news projects that abortion proposition in california succeeds it is yes to add reproductive rights to the state constitution. similarly, in vermont, nbc news protects that vermont voters have also chosen to enshrining reproductive rights in the state constitution. there are three other states and listen to this is being considered one way or another on the ballot, in kentucky voters were asked to vote for an abortion ban. right now with 70% of the vote in kentucky voters seem to be voting no but it is close i get a no vote here is no, it's a avoid against the new abortion

ban in kentucky. a yes vote is for abortion to remain legal. in montana, we have less than 5% of the vote. in this is similar, what we're seeing in kentucky, and no vote here is a no vote against a new abortion ban in montana. a yes vote is a vote for the ban. in michigan, this is a very closely watched one in michigan. michigan like california, like vermont, a yes vote would enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution, right, now with just over a third of the vote in, this proposal appears to be leading, again with only a third of the vote in, we can't really say, but these of the vote stuff are in michigan, and shrine in the right to an abortion, in the state constitution. >> you know, all five of those states are doing this somewhat differently. in california in, vermont is pretty close to what they're doing but this is i mean we'll see when we're all done it looks like at least right now, they might not go the same direction. >> the michigan one i've been

watching very carefully, because of the way opponents of the measure the weight -- of campaigned against. it they've been running ads saying that a vote for this, which would enshrine abortion rights, is a vote for sterilization. medical sterilization of, girls of children, he's been completely fabricated and this is been the line from opponents at this measure and they put a lot of money behind it there's been a campaign rift the various republican candidates engage in. and i didn't know if it would have, but the eyes look scary, if you don't like know what it is like a strange coming to your daughter. we'll see what ends up happening. >> they do want to talk about abortion, i think they understand that one of gretchen whitmer's biggest benefits to her campaign is this so there's been on the ballot remember back in a day in early 00s, putting gary marriage bans on, as republicans get into that one for the did it everywhere, about eight of them, now putting the idea of enshrining

abortion rights on the ballot, because remember republicans fought it in michigan, they didn't want to get on the ballot they were afraid of it because they knew it would help whitmer get reelection. >> they tried to stop it from going on the ballot, by effectively raising the issue of spacing in language. >> -- the formatting issue. there they know it's an issue because. >> let's bring in our friend stephanie ruinous topic, staff were seen dramatic group responses from voters today, and the exit polls. people were asked what their most important issue was, as they're heading to the polls, today the number one issue was inflation, but the number two issue was abortion, it is very close, and everything else was very much behind, that now are seeing in state after state where voters are asking to vote on it, were asked to vote on it directly, at least for now these all seem to be going in the same direction. >> well listen, abortion is an economic issue, and it's one of

people forget about often, so these red states that are having these restrictive bans, we question is what provisions do you portland to provide, what social service economics support do you plan to provide these mothers, and the answer is none. as also this reminder for so many americans who are saying i'm not gonna vote democrat because i'm struggling economically, and this idea that republicans do better for the economy, it's just false, they message better for it, but what they actually do, you've got two economies, rachel, for people better wealthier, we're out there spending, demand is high, but for those who are more economically vulnerable, they're going to get more programs cut, they're gonna be in a more vulnerable situation, and it's not a positive. the last point i would make, those who say yeah, but look at the markets for example they're expecting a red wave. that's why they're going. up as only because this idea that they want to get trump tax cuts extended. corporate america -- which end of the next to be,

next year they want them pushed. but for the overall economy, for the average american who would not be a huge economic positive and if we actually saw democrats hold remember many of biden's policies haven't even played out yet, the infrastructure spending, the inflation reduction act, we're gonna see it in the months and years to come. so i just say hold your horses for anyone saying i'm not happy with the economy, i needed something different, let's see what they get. >> good point, steph, especially on the point about how we should be talking about abortion concerns, and i cannot exit concerns or have the totally unrelated, for women there completely can exit. it's about your financial future as much as the rest of your future, absolutely, let's go to steve right now before we let him get even, anywhere more than six inches away from the big board. because, steve on this question of the house, we are seeing individual house races called. there is the overall issue of control of the house, which i'm absolutely flabbergasted to say

seems to be alive issue. >> yeah, it continues to, be we had that call in ohio nine a little while ago, with marcy captor as the first call we've had for democrats in this comic column where they are. are the most vulnerable in paper, these are democratic held states, places that were carried by donald trump. let's go, through because we're getting a lot of vote just about everywhere right now. wisconsin third district, about 70% of the voters in, ron, kind long serving democrat not running for reelection, trump carried this, one you can see the republican, it's a close race here obviously, these would all be republican pick ups if the republicans win them. texas 15, you can see right now, three quarters the vote in, this is in south texas, this is an area where, you know, there is a big shift, going towards trump in 2020. . this is one coming into tonight, where republicans have the best chance on paper, this could be another big pay go for them,

pennsylvania eight, we were showing you before. this is scranton lackawannock county, met cartwright survived in this district in 2020, even as donald trump carried, it you see over 80% of the voters in. he's a head there. very slow count, about a tenth of the voters in here, in a tent district in michigan. this is a redrawn district, it had been represented by democratic incumbent who ran into different district. john, james -- let's see what happens, there i was their district, this ones coming right down to the wire. with 92% of the vote, in means second district jarrett golden continues to lead the tally, they're again is this an instant run of voting, state nobody gets 50, they do an instant run off in a couple of weeks. arizona's second district, on paper, this is one of the toughest for democrats to defend, you can see donald trump won it by eight points in 2020, under these new lines. basically, the tribal lanes

were taken out of this district. where they put olena disadvantage. about half the vote, then initial batch coming, in ohio learned about a point behind right there. we have the situation in alaska, let's get started later, this will involve an instant runoff, i believe, on november 23rd, so we put that one aside for right now. we showed you this nice line, -- biden carried all the, seats and again that's some their district. just to show, you're in california are starting to get votes in, josh harder incumbent, he moved to the newly drawn ninth district. to run for reelection. he can see the, release in california it's election season, not election night. so i'm cautioning you ahead of time, these will be real slow counts in these california districts, these are now crucial. these are now crucial to the question of house control, because on this panel, you see for california districts that democrats are trying to defend.

i think democrats are probably going to have to go four for four in these districts to have a chance the house, but that's what we're talking about right now, the democrats have a chance to retain the house. he was california's ninth, who's california's 13th district, here's california's 30, seven this is katie porter. sort of coastal orange county, this california's 49th, this is michael levin, you get big initial batches of votes out in california, and it could take a while, i think they're probably gonna need to go realistically run the table, and defend these, they have an opportunity to, we will show you how they play out, let's take a look at illinois, we've got more than 80% of the vote in the sixth district, sean casten continuing to his, minus lawyer under what it a point advantage with 18% in, illinois with 14, indiana won, but we are here before, still about a five-point advantage for democrat -- illinois 17, this when the republican leans about half of the vote is in there right now, so just give me a sense, north carolina one, now most of the

voters in. democrat celine, there then about is also going to be very key to the story of house control, i'll just quickly tell you the story, here, nevada one genotypes democratic incumbent this was a safely democratic seat. >> five point democratic seat, the strategy that the democrats in nevada applied to redistricting, and in a tight had vocal public objections to this one, they said that we're gonna make her district much less democratic so the two if biden wins it by, eight again he was like 25 to the four, they're gonna take areas that democrats in the removing district moving into the four district, stephen horsford, incumbent there, they're gonna make that more democratic and they're gonna move into the third district, susie lee democratic incumbent, there and they're gonna make that more democratic. so the gamble that democrats are taking in a fattah is that by making dina titus more bone rubble in the first district potentially, that they could shore up the fourth, short of the third, and win all three of these.

i wouldn't have any votes to show you but that is now crucial. that gamble that they, made the gamble that they made in the battle, that's what you out there, right? the gamble that they made, that's good because the senate control. can they go 3 to 3 right there? then we get to that question of where our democrats are playing offense? and they did a short while ago put their first pick up on the board. we were talking about this one all night. steve chabot, long serving democrat -- found himself in a biden plus a district, he has been an seeded, and since counter stated linesman, this is a net gain for democrats. this office one of the republican pick ups from earlier. there are others on this list right, now as i say, you are two thirds of the votes in texas, 34, myre flores is the incumbents in this district. we show you a minute ago that in texas 15, which is this district, the republicans is leading. the scent they gondolas used to

represent the 15th is now running in the 34th. if the republican holds on into when's the 15th, that a republican pick up. but gonzales as running next door now to the 34th, myre flores run a special election. she's a congresswoman that's one that -- if myers and seats, or this office of democratic lost in the 15th district. so these are the stakes right there. that is significant for demonstrate crowds. michigan through right, now have the vote is, and double digit advantage for hillary shelton, again that's a district where republicans through peter myers and the board in the primary. 70% of the vote isn't in the 13 district of illinois. this was very strong to get die by democrats, to give democrats potentially a pick up. it looks on paper right now they're getting what they were hoping for. new mexico two, more than 80% of the vote again redrawn by democrats to give them selves -- for republican state in florida, democrats try to do in new mexico. look at this, harrell finds ourself in a big troubled 80%

of the vote. and in nebraska, second district, the lines are redrawn here but remember this is that second district like the main, they do the electoral titus votes by congressional district, nebraska second, gave biden the electoral votes, a little bit different constitutionally, but this one is going to come down to the wire, it looks like, and it's crucial here because of the pick up opportunity for democrats. north carolina's 13th, we've been watching it all night, look at this: >> wow! >> we have almost all of the voting right now. >> wow! >> it's not yet been called, but the democrat with an advantage here of over 7000 vote. now elections, this is crucial, elections they still have ballots that arrived in the mail after election day that won't be added to the tally, officially, for i think about a week in carolina. so there may be a few more voice to come, here there's the provisional ballots, its military ballots from overseas, very close margin but this would be if nicole could hang

on, this would be a democratic pick up. so you are starting to see all this lies and these are just republican states that were carried by joe biden. you also have this list next door, i wanted to show you that these other democratic targets, these are districts here, colorado three. you know? about 80% of the vote is in right now adam frisch leads boebert, -- starting to get some votes in california, three in california 40, one can caliber, it's his district was change, an incumbent, more vulnerable as a result of it. california new york, the bottom line right now is becoming a huge part of this story for house control. there is five vulnerable democratic seats in new york state. if we just check in on them right now, and see any republican went in the district i'm about to show you would be a pick up for them. so you start in the fourth district and with about two thirds of the vote and right

here razor-thin this would be un-american if d'esosito is able to get. it george santos leading robert zimmerman about 47%. we have this one right here, patrick maloney fines of thousands on big trouble with the quarters of the vote here. chairman of the tree dccc, -- campaign committee go, down in a general election in 42 years. that's what he's facing their. pat ryan has gotten very close here the democrat that won this special election, democrats badly needed to hang on to this district and in the 19 districts next door here, look at this: 2000 votes and change, almost all the voting, milan arrow sounds familiar to you, he's the ink reporting that loss the pat ryan and the special action over the summer. now running in the 19 district, if riley hangs on, here that would count or prevent some

gains -- if democrats trying to remain what republicans squeeze out of those five new york districts. i could add that a new york area district to this, seven district of new jersey, this one democrats are some trouble in right now some real trouble! tom kaine junior son of former governor, running in a rematch against tom malinowski, you can see here that more than 10,000 vote cushion right now for tom kean so more of the vote in their. potential losses for democrats i showed you the places that are sort of in the non california places where they can get some gains but ultimately it and comes down, potentially, to california, with those four republican held seats that democrats are targeting there in california -- six republican states, for that were won by joe biden, that democrats are targeting. so that's ultimately, i, think potentially gonna be the opportunity for democrats here.

if they can make gains in the places of i'm showing you, if they can limit losses on some of those outstanding places, will end up with an opportunity in california -- an opportunity to make a significant number of games, and if they can get the republican net gain under five, they keep the house. >> let me but in here with a few calls that have happened while she was running through those house races. we have a couple of calls in the chain of cattle to rise a ton of governor's race. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> first of all, let's look at the governor's race and connecticut, nbc news cannot be jacked that democratic incumbents connecticut governor ned lamont will be returned for another term. also, in maine, the main governors race, democratic incumbent there is janet mills, she was facing a challenge from former republican governor, paula page, who like the columns of trump before there was trump. janet mills has beaten trump before there was trump. paula page falls short in his talent, janet mills is reelected in the great state of maine!

now here is a characterization change, this is the minnesota governor's race. this is still described as too early to call. this is incumbent democratic tim walz facing scott jensen republican, but tim mott is described as being in the lead in this minnesota's governor's race. but still early to call. >> chris, you want to jump in and stop -- i had to do that. sorry. >> first of, all that was remarkable! i don't think i know anything in the world as well as steve knows the house races! like -- >> we got big news! >> okay, should we go to you then? >> oh i was talking to look -- >> [laughs] so here's what i wanted to say! >> i will talk to the controller, bobby right back! >> i am, goodbye! >> here's what i want to ask you, i think at this point in the evening, am i correct, that elaine luria is the only democratic incumbent defeated by republican challenger we've called? malinowski right now looking pretty dicey -- but at 11:54, i think we've got

one democratic incumbents out state by a republican challenger -- >> in the house. >> in the house. >> right, here's what i can tell you right, now this isn't just has been top watching all of these issues that have been running through here. running a model, trying to come up with a projection for how the house will ultimately end up. and the decision desk is now ready to release its model for the house. now i want you to remember: control of the house is 218 seats. our decision desk model that they just released within the last minute, that the republicans will end up with 219 seats. [laughs] >> but look, this is important. plus or minus 13. [laughs] so this is essentially landing in our model as a tie at the moment. as close as you could get to a tie! for house control -- in our model, at midnight on election night!

so all of those different tears that i'm showing you right now, and all of the trends that are emerging in the counties and the district that have been called, where we have partial results, when you put those into our model, and the model gets smarter with the more data you feed it with. it adds up, right now, to republicans, to 19 -- could be less, could be more, there's almost an equal chance when you look at that of republicans ending up in control in the house, or democrats retaining control of the house. >> wow! >> steve as i understand this projection, so as you said, to 18 is what you need for a house majority. the projection is 219 republican states with a margin of error -- effectively, up 13 seats. are we also able to say, conclusively, that there is no chance we will know tonight who will control the house? >> i can't officially make that call for a decision desk. but everything i told you about

california, the number of competitive seats in california, there are half a dozen states that democrats are targeting, there are seats that republicans are targeting, and is california races -- it's extremely, extremely hard to fathom a scenario where any close race and california, any remotely close race in california is called tonight, especially given what the stakes have now landed at in terms of house control. so again, we say at the start of the night, i think it was the start of the night, that if we landed in a position where democrats actually had a chance at controlling the house of representatives, that would mean landing with 220, 221 states, something like that, it would necessarily come down to california. to defending their vulnerable seat in california and to picking off the vulnerable republicans, potentially vulnerable republicans in california. that process, again, taking -- things back to the 2018 midterms if you can, if you remember.

that's a blue wave in 2018 grew by a substantial number of seats in the weeks after the november election as the vote counts progress in california. so we have election season getting underway in california where you are going to get, you are gonna get incremental updates in these districts. you know, every day, we'll get a couple thousand votes, different, counties you know, it's going to be uneven and it's going to take a while. that's the way it goes in california, but with this kind of margin it's hard to see how we are not now living in a world where that's gonna be our lives for the next couple of weeks. >> so steve, i just got confirmation from the decision desk, they are officially saying that we will not know tonight. >> i'm glad to hear it! i'm glad to say. that >> you made the case, mathematically, for why that is so. but again, let me just underscored this and then alex, i know you gonna jump in here. but nbc has released its house model. and what that means is a projection overall of house

control, that the projection has that plus and minus 13 seats there. 218 seats as a majority. they are projecting 219 seats on the republican side with a margin of error of plus or minus 9:13 states. nbc desk decision news, protecting that we will not know how to control at the conclusion of tonight. and if you mean tonight by 90 seconds from, now sure, that's not a typical projection to make, but what they mean in the overnight hours, tonight. alex? >> state, whether the democrats hold a house, can i ask you just to put this in context historically, with what we are looking at, right? from my rough math, it seems biden could be presiding over a historically strong showing vis-à-vis what usually happens to incumbent presidents and parties that role majority. >> i think there's no question! by the way, we were having this conversation, our decision desk has officially called north carolina's 13 district, so this

is a democratic gain. again, we have seen you know by five or six republican gains, this is the second democratic gains. so the math starts to come into focus, will come more into focus. in terms of the historical context for since the great depression, there are two midterm elections where the presidents party has actually gained seats in the house. each time it was single digits, it was 1998 with bill clinton, the second midterm, it was 2002 with george w. bush and his first midterm. both of those presidents had extremely high approval ratings on election day. bill clinton's approval ratings in the 1990s exit poll was 68%. if you remember at the time, house republicans were imposing an impeachment against him. there was wide public opposition, there was a backlash that resulted in approval rating for clinton, of nearly 70%, and democratic gains in that midterm election. in 2002, george w. bush carried a 63% approval rating into the election, remember, it was a

year after 9/11. so that unity behind bush and the nation and republicans managed to gain eight seats in the house in 2002. joe biden's approval rating in our poll, it is about every other, poll it's right around this coming into this election is 44%. donald trump's approval rating in 2018 when his party lost 40 seats was 45%, in our, poll barack obama's approval rating on his party lost 63 seats, in 2010, was about 43%. bill clinton's approval rating in his party lost 54 seats in 1994 was 46%. biden's number -- his approval rating was right in the range where presidents are when the party takes it on the chin. >> yes! >> yes! >> and you compound that with the attitude towards the economy that is coming through every poll. i know in our exit poll, there's a tighter margin there between economy and abortion, but economy still ranks number one and the mood on the economy, and our final nbc poll was 81%

of voters expressing dissatisfaction with the state of the economy. the context where that was, the last time that number was that high was 2009, 2010, it was the prelude to barack obama and the democrats getting absolutely clobbered in the 2010 midterm elections. so we will see where this lands. the republicans may get control of the house still, they may get the control of the house with a little bit of a pad. that's the best-case scenario for republicans right now. there's also a scenario where democrats hold the house and only lose maybe two or three seats. and there is a scenario where democrats hold the house and actually gain seats. and so i -- i think given the history that i just laid out there, the fact that that is what way we are sitting right, now that's the range of possibility, it suggest that we sort of had an idea of what the rules of politics are about how midterms elections kind of automatically you know, represent this

backlash of ruling party. we may just be living in new political era right now. where you just have massive -- enough feature of tonight, we have a massive, massive historical unprecedented turnout in these elections. these -- this is number the number that are gonna get in these multi-militias what a path for presidential election turnout. not that long ago. and so we just maybe in an environment right now where people are so tuned in, so plugs into politics, and they know which side there on, and they know which side they're against. and it being motivated, if you're a democratic inclines voter, you may not have been motivated based on all those polls numbers that we have showed, you to vote for democratic party of joe biden, to vote for biden's policies, about what democrats have done -- but you may also be motivated to keep the republicans from getting power. you may be motivated by -- and this kept coming up in our polling, this label, threats to democracy, as an issue that voters were concerned about. and our polling, there was overwhelming democratic voters

who are giving that answer. i think one of the questions raised by these results is, the looming presence of donald trump, his fingerprints are all over so many of these republican candidacies where he was in the news, on election morning talking about potentially running for president again in 2024. if that's in the minds of democratic inclined voters who are not that nice about joe biden, that might motivate them to come out and vote. that might have motivated them to come out and vote in this election. but this is -- this is looking like, in terms of the turnout, in terms of the polarization, in terms of this house result, it's almost looking like a many presidential election. it's almost like identical polarization. >> chris, i know you want to jump in here, i do need to give a couple of directions here before we begin to move on -- ♪ ♪ ♪ at this hour, nbc news can project a winner in the governor's race of minnesota, incumbent tim walz has been reelected in the minnesota governor's race. we've also just had polls close in hawaii.

and the why u.s. senate race we got a democratic incumbents brian schatz facing republican challenge from bob mcdermott. these are too early to call, but shots is a leading. in the hawaii governor's race, hawaii's governor's race at this hour is too early to call. but we can say that democratic candidate, josh greene, is leading in the hawaiian governor's race. we will have a statewide race that's to tell you about, national interest in michigan, secretary of state, the incumbent democratic this dick -- joshua benson was facing a challenge from a very, very right-wing pro trump candidates on the republican side and then kristina karamo, jocelyn benson has been reelected. the incumbent will stay as secretary of state in the great state of michigan. chris? >> i mean just to absorb what steve just said -- right? i walked in here tonight, you look at the history, i was digging in my head, consensus pick, house republicans picked of 25 states. and that would be a pretty good

night for democrats, right? 63 in 2010 -- >> i was thinking 40 -- >> it was 53! like that would -- if you were to held at the 25, you will have overperformed history by quite a bit, right? -- it was a different story, once he says look here's what the history, us here's what the numbers are, there are some dark matter over here that is moving things around this electorate, that doesn't look like the other electorate. i would submit donald trump is the dark matter and a force field of donald trump and a force field of the big lie, and maga-ism, and a closing message on democracy is that there is a pro democracy majority in america and an anti trump majority -- >> you would've had dobson there? >> no -- >> and dubs -- >> i have to be a contrarian around this because of somebody was been a bit of a broken record, and speaking not for myself and nicole walls as -- something has been a broken record, the history of the way elections work cannot survive a

classic cosmic of beds in the lives of half the population. when you undo 40 years of history to say that anything but that moves the election, that election can be historically normal, we have had a 40-year history. if my children have lived their entire lives with roe v. wade being the default, with owning their own body being the default, i am just a little surprised that it wasn't really obvious that when you take away a fundamental right from half of the population, that the history of the way things were, when the president has disapproval rating, or that approval rating, it's wiped away -- with the polling didn't show it. >> and it wouldn't, and i don't think it can, because if you ask someone if you are in favor of abortion or not, a lot of people that i'm talking to, that i talked to in texas, the first person i spoke to in texas when we got to fort worth

was a woman who was in the bar, she was a bartender, she could've been more than 22. and i said what issues are important to? >> my body, my twice! she told me that if she was -- of course he was already talked about because i had to lecture her and tell her how to get on you know to get on our to register to vote. [laughs] but she said if she was a voter, she would be a republican. she was conservative, she was against abortion, and she was infuriated that the state could tell her what to do. and the thing is if what americans react to is the idea that you -- it's part of the democracy argument. josh shapiro emerson together and this way that if you don't control yourself, right? democracy -- a little bit cheaper milk isn't going to change the fact that you now don't control your body. this was a freedom versus chattel argument and i think that it's what move the electorate. >> there are two arguments that democrats were center, democracy and abortion, right? when you look at the polling,

and you look at the ads, the closing message in the ads, they were centering those -- they had the public on the side on both of them. and i have read 100 takes in the last three days about what a mistake this was. 100 takes! i read them from republicans -- >> why did you do that! [laughs] >> why would you use your awake moments -- >> my precious life? >> because here's [laughs] >> and our choices in life -- >> there were pre-whitson obituaries landing in the box, they were spins like us being written, all day, for every consult about how dems screwed up the messaging, -- modeling's big robotic elias, and you can't mad mouth to vote for you, because democracy is a threat, we talked about abortion, you care about the price of milk -- and right now, as we sit here, at midnight, against the circle of projections, those messaging choices look pretty smart actually! >> well, let us not forget also about how incredibly weak these republican candidates have been. they've been lured in through the big lie, they have promoted

falsehoods, they have sought to actively undermine democracy to curtail women's rights, to tear up the social safety net, they have made no secret of what they intend to do today we gain control of the house. i mean these are people who almost weren't even trying to win if you look at what matters to voters! and it's not, as it turns out the strategy hasn't played out well for them. >> i want to say -- i want to interject that i owe you not an apology, but kind of a tepid climb back, because you said earlier tonight joe biden -- >> as you said it to ours too early -- >> and i said it's too early in the night to say that! and you said joe biden is going to prove to the b one of the most successful presidents ever, as measured by the first time mitch and performance of his party. and i thought that was crazy talk, and i looked at you where, and i said that's way too early to be saying it, and you are completely right! and i was completely wrong! >> well you're right, it was too, early steve said it two hours later, metaphorically --

[laughs] i could've easily waited for that. but yeah, when you've seen these things you know -- i've mentioned it last night, that by far the most surprising midterm election in my lifetime was 1994 where no one predicted that the democrats were going to lose the house or the senate. they lost both, lost the house for the first time in 40 years. not one person predicted it! so when you say, when i won here says that the polls didn't show this -- i just can't, i'm sorry, but i didn't read a single poll. i didn't look at one, i didn't read a single take from any of the hundred that you read -- >> i wasted my time -- >> will know, because i know that nobody knows anything. and that this chessboard is way too complex for the kind of analysis that people wanted to deliver to it. which -- would you know this isn't task is taking them all year, and now, at midnight, they are willing to say what they think is going to happen in the house. which is pretty reasonable. they're basically saying it's a tie, i get why they waited that

law. and so no one should ever be surprised because you just can't a lean on any of this information you are getting in the course of these campaigns. i mean i listened to wiley nickel on my show, this candidate from north carolina who i never heard of before. [laughs] but mueller so byerson and my political brain trust on our staff identified his candidacy and said you've got to bring him on. i was like okay. a. me that his opponent has said that the [laughs] abortion should be decided by a community group. >> [laughs] >> the rape exception, -- >> ten years, old and you have a discussion with them, and he made his case -- so i'm not saying you're surprised that he squeaked out a win tonight. i also never looked at a poll in his race. i've heard him and i have the sense that he's making -- >> there still plenty of mystery tonight, though, just looking at the house races. i mean one thing to give the republicans credit, they are running a very good program in new york state. we've got kathy hogan's meeting lisa alton, maybe that was

oversold in terms of how strong a challenge zeldin was going to pose to hochul, but there is a lot of democratic incumbents -- >> sean patrick maloney -- >> including the house of the democratic party who looks like he's a very much at risk tonight, and other democrats who we thought we were gonna win or that thoughts that hold seats, to hold that in the house -- so that across once a blow, and in a -- and a country that looks like sort of going one direction tonight, newark looks like it's going the other. >> -- lost arbery destructing in new york to a court and the court created these districts that created vulnerabilities that weren't there before. >> and sean patrick maloney, i don't know what will happen with him, but he was facing actually an historic 30 year state of retirement. 31 democrats retired. it was as a democrat fearlessly saying that this was actually -- he may not hold his seat. but the choices at the party made at the dccc level in terms of candidate quality, to your

point, were actually very solid! i have some issues i think with a de-sec in terms of their spending because they did skip a lot of stuff, because i think they bought -- or a lot of, people even democrats, because democrats all they do is fred and think the world is -- anxious part was pulled into you, right? but i think a lot of democrats made assumptions about where spending would be viable. that were wrong. and then -- was a mess, a huge mess. i think planning not buying more, they're not spending more in ohio they may regret it. >> you think they should've triage florida not spend anything in florida? >> i would've taken all the money out of florida. what is a red state. if you just look at these sites guys are, not looking at a poll, if you look at who is moving there, the people that are moving their, people in new york, who hated the idea that there was a mask mandate, spent their entire pandemic in florida. the kind of people moving their hate taxes, it kind of people want to retire and not pay taxes -- >> people that want to take documents that don't belong to -- them [laughs]

>> talking from the white house! it's republicans who are moving in. so is just becoming places like miami dave, black people are moving to broward and then not even miami dave. you can to see it without looking at it. >> as will say this -- talk about friday night, part of the flooding is the 2016 ptsd. people -- i mean really! it was that of a seismic event in the history of american politics, history of the world, and a history of american democracy, right? in this room. me telling james carville, during, break like i don't think that is gonna win this -- and never forget it, okay? i think that goes both ways. democrats have the sort of insecurity, i think republicans still ascribe to that man, this totemic power that he does not have, he does not have some magic power, i'm telling the republicans -- i'm looking -- he does not have a magic power, he's unpopular! he is unpopular! he screwed you two dead. screwed you! it's not the full story, i

totally agree, but it's part of the story -- and the sooner you dump him, the better it is for the republican party on american democracy, full stop. >> sorry -- go alex, and then we have somewhere to go to to prove this point -- >> i think the -- the degree to which they continue to kiss the ring, to bend the knee, they are defending him on mar-a-lago! he -- he accuses of the fbi upon lawful search and seizure, and there are attacks on fbi officers. there's a reason that believes that he has full-time a power, because he has some sway on the grassroots. but the grassroots is not deciding elections right now. >> garrett haake, nbc news reporter -- decided this evening that he would spend this evening at the watch party at kevin mccarthy headquarters -- [laughs] ♪ ♪ ♪ >> garrett, can hear you over the dam! [laughs] >> i can, i'm sorry! [laughs] >> rachel -- look, this is pretty clearly not a party that kevin mccarthy

and house republicans thought they would be having tonight. the bar has been open for three hours, they are playing steube butters right now over the speakers, but as you can see behind me, this is no victory party, yet. we've been watching the results come in from some of these races that were perceived as bellwethers for how the night could go, retraces for republicans, like rhode island to, republicans are making the case over the last week that they thought they had a decent chance to send the first republican to congress from rhode island for 30 years. that did not happen. this ban burger race did not go their way. so many of these races have come off the board and while, as you as we just talked about you new york state, so many races still select in play in new york. still left in play where michigan, nevada, republicans still feel they have a good shot. the way that they were expecting tonight has not occurred and we are seeing this state by state slog that makes control of congress obviously endows. also, i think kevin mccarthy's ability to potentially be any

kind of effective speaker, should they still win majority, it's much much harder when you start talking about a majority of just a handful of seats. so a very different vibe here than what was expected tonight by all the house republicans and house strategist i've been talking to leading up to today. so this week -- >> can ask your technical question of something else over your left shoulder? which is set right behind that podium, take back the house -- is a painted or projected? because if it was projected that just turn off the projector, but it was painted the law to put up a tarp. >> it is a screen! it is projected. so we can put anything on. there i can ask him to put ms on but unlikely -- >> [laughs] iberia! garrett, thank you very, much i appreciate. it >> let's go to steve as we continue to watch as houses as they continue to come in. >> we've got a few more cost to bring up the daycare. actually, will cycle through this quickly here, but again five republicans gains at the very start of the night is all

just the product of redistricting. these are all democratic held seat that under the current configuration would have gone for donald trump or one for donald trump in 2020. you saw the five republican gains, there democrats have successfully defended ohio's ninth, we are still waiting on a bunch of axne others now next year, what about democrats, these are democratic states, they are not trump districts, they are biden districts, but they are competitive mike levin mike levin we just got a couple calls illinois 14 illinois hicks we've been watching these all night or two democratic incumbents sean casten, lauren underwood, both successfully hold those races. again look at this list, there are bunch and california, that come right to mind here, there's gonna be some significance -- will have to wait a while on. new jersey seven, still looking a very shaky here, it has to put it mildly for tom malinowski for democrats. all of a potential republican pick up there. more bonawyn seats, or democratic states -- they lost virginia to, they get another call here in texas,

texas 20, heavy cuellar, democrat a succeeded in defending his seat, this is one of those deep south texas state, that the area had been moving in in 2016 and 2020 towards the republicans, towards trump. cuellar, probably the most conservative democratic in the house defends it. oh, higher ohio 13 districts that oh -- leopard run senate, they thought they could flip eight republicans, garrett mentioned and rhode island to, they thought that allen fung would flip the seat. we mentioned this earlier, we start to go and gone through the states where democrats are vulnerable, you see where they've lost, it i showed you new jersey seven where they may be on the cusp of losing. take a look at where the democrats is on offense. they are now for calls. texas 34 within the last couple of minutes, this isn't just called guns and take, gonzalez, winners -- remember, he is an incumbent, but the 34th district right now,

the actual congresswoman who represents a district is mira flores who won a special election this summer. our first district, earlier, -- now illinois a 13 district also being called for the democrats. so democrats now have posted four games of their own, doesn't completely offset the republican gains actually before. but that is a big bite out of it for democrats. and our other district here that right now, i think if you are a democrat, looking pretty promising for you. michigan, three again, peter meijer, pro impeachment republican, lost the primary to the trump ally and john gibbs, hillary shelton, democrat now leading that state with half the vote in. new york 20 to, this is actually a republican held seats right now. john katko, leaving it, you can see with three -- with the lead here of eight points, again, if you look at the rest of these new york states, here there is some trouble, there's some big trouble for democrats and the

number of these new york so we have been showing you. they badly need colona to hold on. with three points of the vote, in whether he sitting right now the second district of new mexico, over 90% of the vote and right now. democrats leads the incumbent by harrell, four, points democrats aggressively redo the lines here and in a time to carry it. again, as you know, when we see for california districts here. for democratic pick ups already, some clear opportunities to add to that in those four states there in california, four republican held seats and district won by joe biden and then there's also an additional set of targets for democrats here. two in california, the third district on the 41st district, republican house seats in vote for biden, but these are democratic targets -- colorado's third district, now we are at 80%. it's component real slow -- >> wow! >> adam fresh, three points ahead of lauren boebert, the republican, here that would be a monster upsets obviously.

washington three district -- the thing that the way it works in washington that i wouldn't expect much more tonight in terms of both reporting. what is that getting these votes, kind of what, tonight it's gonna take a while and washington. but this is where jamie herrera beutler, another pro impeachment republican, was defeated in the republican primary. so is this a pick up opportunity for democrats? iowa too, i did want to show you the republican incumbent here is you can see three quarters of the vote does seem to be doing fairly well. but democrats have targets here -- to say that they have picked up four and they've got other targets as well. so that is why the house model is, so even. >> steven, alaska quick -- what was the biden trump splits in the beaufort race? >> 50 3:45 i think it was. by eight points. >> wow, okay. >> let's bring in my friend david plouffe, we have not yet spoken today but since we've had this remarkable news from the nbc decision desk. nbc news decision deaths, they

released a house model just reiterating for those who have might have missed it. their projection is that of course 218, you need to look and i think it's that majority in the house. the projection that republicans will have 219 seats but the margin of error on that is plus or minus 13 seats. which means that this isn't task is saying officially we will not know tonight who will control the house. and, mathematically, it means effectively that there is basically an equal chance that's either party will end up at the end of the day in control of the house. david plus, this is a historic moment. >> it sure is rachel! i think it's just a lesson that the voters always have the last word and the voters weren't listening to narratives or pendants. they decided to go out and force, again with high turnout, and maybe that's a change in american politics. we saw the 1922, they weren't gonna start to see high turnout. but, yeah it's a shocking

development. and i think what you are is that we have one or two or three senators if you are kevin mccarthy and house republicans. you don't win back the majority, which was seen as almost a certainty, or you have a majority of five or six which will be an absolute excruciating nightmare! with the gates's and the taylor greene's of the world. and then they'll be overtly off the scene. so shocking. i want to echo what chris said -- i think donald trump here there's a lot of issues at play here. let's also remember that in the last week, republicans were projected to waltz to massive victory in the house, and the, senate when governors races all across the country. trump's out on the trail and sort of took center stage. the only other person or public compete it was barack obama. so we have these two former presidents out there making their case. and i think that donald trump right now, i'm sure, is reviled in the house caucus among senators at the rga because this was a historic opportunity

for them to pick up seats. and the senate has obviously much in question, the house surprisingly in question. i think they thought that they were gonna win that michigan governor's race i thought they were gonna win governors race across the country. so it's a shocking development. but again, i think that either scenarios, democrats in historic surprise hold on, terrible for republicans, obviously great for the country and democracy, or -- they have an unmanageable small majority. >> if in the event of an unmanageable small majority, does that make it more likely or less likely that kevin mccarthy might not end up being their leader? >> well i think it depends on the margin. if they win the house by four or 56, i think it's a very much in question whether they can win that election -- if they get the eight or ten, now he's got -- some now even at eight or ten, and he gets elected, he's gonna be on probation every single day about miserable tenure. it's going to be a really awful position for him to be in! but i think is probably what

you're looking at -- if they end up with 220, 222 states, i think it's very much a question of whether he can win the speakers race. >> wow! >> while! >> incredible! steve, let's go back to you -- if you don't mind, you can tell me that we should keep talking about the house right now, but i'm feeling like i need a little bit of an update on the senate. >> yeah, let's -- let zoom out here and just take a look at the big picture for the senate right now. again, we come into the night, republicans and healing that net gain of one seat to get control of the senate. so what has been called so far that was part of the battleground, in ohio, republicans j.d. vance calls the winner, that's a hold for republicans -- no change. north carolina gets called by ted budd, a hold for republicans, no change. new hampshire gets called for maggie hanson, that's a hold for democrats, no change -- so the battleground shrinking for the senate, what are we looking? at first we're looking at that this is a very crucial one in terms of the math. pennsylvania: as you, said too

early to, call this better man, advantage right now sits at 35,000 votes over oz. with 80% 88%. and let's look at the suburbs, is a big densely populated suburbs right outside of pennsylvania. this is in bucks county, give you a sense, joe biden -- you can see what biden got there in 2020, what betterment is trying to get to. if you loses more than a point and biden's number, and any given, county that's not a great sign for fetterman. in montgomery county, now you are getting close to all the votes in any's basically matched the trump and biden number there. oz actually a little bit under the trump number. if you look at chester county, right now, i think that in chester county we have more -- there maybe more mail vote that could bump that number up, but at that number is not going to be bumped up by mail ballots, and maybe, we have to check on,

this that would be a very good sign from mehmet oz, one of the good ones for them up. but we have to check on. that in delaware county, again, we are sitting at 30% of the vote and. so these philly suburbs are huge! yes -- dauphin county, where ericsburg is, this is biden can picked up considerable ground here in 2020, fetterman is basically held what biden gained. if you look at allegheny county, now we are at 95%, western pennsylvania, john fetterman from braddock, mayor abroad, a former mayor of braddock, you can see over performing the biden number in allegheny county. that is significant, -- erie county over performing the biden. number significant embers for fetterman. if you look at philadelphia as well, and you can see in philadelphia they release right, now what biden, got what betterment is. remember, in philadelphia we are waiting at the side of the, night released about 60,000 mail ballots with about 20 to 30,000 additional mail ballots to be released. you saw how decisively those break for the democrats.

so that could still pad the fetterman number there. but basically, in terms of senate control, as we zoom out, this one becomes extremely important for democrats because if they get it, it's again. pat toomey hold it right now, they would gain seats, so democrats comes in tonight with 50, if they get pennsylvania, right? it's plus one for them. now, if you are a democrat, you could afford to lose one of the following states: georgia, arizona, nevada. right? look at a democratic that seats are up. let's take a look at what's going on in georgia right. now look at this! 13,000 vote margin. 92% of the vote is in. you see here that herschel walker -- 49.1% in the center, race he's basically running five points behind brian kemp who's been declared the winner in the governor's race. the libertarian is getting 2% here, raises again that's a possibility of a runoff in georgia. if there's a runoff in georgia, it will be held on december

6th. now take a look at arizona, and arizona, this is going to take a while -- all right? but we got that initial big batch of the early votes from all of the counties, at maricopa, pima, the two biggest, here you can see what maricopa looks like right now. they are starting now to add into maricopa county the same day vote, so the expectation is this titans, as the same day vote comes in, same in pima, but right now, to give you the sense of what the point of comparison here is. this is what won joe biden in 20, 20 barely, but getting 50.3% of the maricopa county as both won it for him. what won arizona for him was 58% out of pima. these are early numbers, but the bat about from pima and maricopa doesn't count for as much of that both as the initial batch did in 2020. so there's a little bit more murkiness about what is to come and how republican friendly it

will be. but again, if you are kelly and you are running above these numbers, these biden numbers at all, you are in decent shape in arizona. especially if you can make up a few points above them. now in nevada, don't have any results there, we didn't get our first result and nevada reported out in 2020 until about 1:30 in the morning eastern time. when we do, it's going to be clark county, washing county, just by far the two biggest counties in the state and really clark -- about 70% of all the vote is gonna come out of clark county. but the point for democrats is: if they can get better man to hang on here, they can lose one of these three seats. now there's a scenario -- let's say where fetterman, let's say democrats were to get pennsylvania, just for the sake of argument, okay? let's say for the sake of argument that democrats hang on in arizona, but that the republicans win nevada -- and the republicans i should mention as well run johnson, very close there, but there are

some encouraging county numbers for johnson in wisconsin. so was a sick for the argument, let's say that's what happens here, just to give you a scenario here -- what that would mean is that the democrats get the game, republicans offset again, and then let's say that georgia lands with both candidates south of 50%. >> jay salt -- >> yeah, runoff in georgia would then decide senate control. so then -- we're already talking to me tonight about the house now potentially entering into a weeks long waits on california congressional districts to find out who controls the house. something along the lines of what i just sketched out here would result in the wait until december 6th to find out who controls the senate. >> steve, i have a couple of questions: we have no vote in a battle, but you don't think that's unusual, you think that's essentially at least in line with what we have recently received from nevada? >> in 2020, and i'll see if i can find the spreadsheet here,

i believe it was 1:35 in the morning and all of a sudden -- >> the first results? >> yeah, the first results take you from like zero to 60%. basically it's similar to what we just saw play out. again, it may not be as dramatic but it's similar to what just played out in arizona. >> okay. >> where they count all of that early vote up and they just released one giant batch. so you get like clark county, you'll get washington state, at all of a sudden don't have a ton about. and then again, like arizona, you'll have a lot of waiting after that. >> on arizona, we have heard election officials in arizona over the course of the last week say that it may be 10 to 12 days in arizona before we've got results. does that same -- are they -- are they under promising so they could over deliver? or do you think that's feasible? >> it could be either -- to put it into some context, first of all it depends on what we want to see right now is the same day votes coming in in

maricopa county. that initial batch, maricopa county is 60% of the votes in the state. and that initial batch, we'll put it up on the screen, here that initial batch out of maricopa county for mark kelly, that is now, some very small amount of same day there. it's very encouraging for democrats. is the same day very encouraging for republicans and putting blake masters you know on pace to get close to parity in maricopa county? that's kind of a question for the next few hours. is he able to get our take a big chunk out of the initial kelly lead in the maricopa county? if he's able to do that, then yeah -- it becomes this thing where they basically have done is counted up the vote that they have received for the last friday, and they count up the vote that's cast in person today. what remains to be counted is all about that kind of came in between. they call it the late early vote. that's where we start getting that once a night updates from

maricopa county, from some of these other places, and if you remember 2020, we caught pennsylvania for joe biden at 11:30 in the morning after the election. with, that presidency biden won that -- we still haven't called out and i was on at that point. so the potential for a long, night and i believe in 2018 as well, when kyrsten sinema was elected, there was a protective counter to. so we hadn't called nevada in 2021 the president -- so you know these are two states in particular where if it is close, if we're talking about a couple of points, it's a long count. >> saying in arizona, details about the relationship between the vote and in the senate race versus the vote that's and the governor's race? are we looking at similar partisan lane? >> yeah, there's a little difference here -- here's a statewide vote in the senate race: >> 50 8:40 -- >> 40 for blake masters, kari lake gets a three and a half points better. kari lake is running three and a half points better than blake

masters. so we were seeing that in the poll and the poll was digesting that lake was running stronger than masters. so right now that's about three and a half point difference for her. and again, we take a look at maricopa county. if she's at 40 19 in part maricopa county, in masters's at 30 86. so a big question for the next couple of hours -- if we just get a sense of the same day votes that was cast in maricopa county, are we looking at a closer picture and both of these races and maricopa county? the other one i can show you two, is pima county, again this is where pima county finished up in 2016. tucson as the anchor of a tier, second biggest county in the state. if you add these two together, that's the clear majority of the state. again, these early numbers coming out of pima county are very encouraging for democrats. but the wild card is what see that saying they added into it. and if you know, if that moves a little bit closer to the low

that we saw in 2020, or in some earlier elections where the republicans had success in arizona, but if you are a democratic, you probably got excited we saw those early results, now we have to see what the same-day votes. >> we're gonna take a quick, break when we come back on the other, side one of the things that we will be checking on is how they are taking it on the right. ben collins, senior nbc news reporter has been like a white on rice in terms of extremism, disinformation, misinformation, and online hysteria on the rights tonight. we will check in with ben on how things look from that vantage point. stay with us! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ voya provides guidance for the right investments. they make me feel like i've got it all under control.

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♪ ♪ ♪ >> but a lot of election icon and bc, frankly, we're just getting lambert up, just starting to settle into this thing! hope you're getting used to us, because we are not going anywhere! >> oh no. >> ben collins has been watching the internet, he specializes and extremism and disinformation. we spoke with ben earlier tonight about how republicans and particularly the trump wing,

the sort of bannon verse of the trump where we are really focusing on arizona, we are trying to create panic and fear about the election being messed with an arizona -- that i wanted to ask for an update on that and what's out you are seeing now that it seems like republicans are having much less of a night that they expected? >> yeah, i don't they had a plan for, this to be honest with you rachel. i've been watching all of the most wonderful part there this evening in fours, and these steve bannon style shows that he is popular this evening. they did not have a plan, and that is kind of interfering with their backup plan. you could kind of tell that they were planning on making arizona a big deal. they want to make all of the, you know, what they call shenanigans, stuff happening down there with their viral lies about the voter tabulations this morning. they want to make that into a huge deal. and it might not even matter at the end of the day, depending on where the democrats end up

winning in pennsylvania, in a battle, in georgia, they are -- i can't really stress this, it's a very weird vibe on these bases. they seem a little bit despondent. >> do they except that they're winning the election or do they believe that what they are saying? on tv and what they're seeing in terms of result is a hoax perpetrated by a cabal? >> >> there was a moment where i thought maybe they had pretape some stuff earlier today, because they had kept going with the reds weight stuff. -- and then the tide turns at some point in the middle of the evening. they realize it was maybe not coming through in the way that it was. -- they were looking at all these other places that did not really lineup with all the polls that we're seeing in the weeks beforehand. they sort of can't believe it. they really did not have a plan. they were making fun of the democrats ability to get out the vote while they started to lose some of these races.

>> in terms of the translation between conspiracy theorizing, posting and talking smack on the internet and real world threats and violence, i will ask you the same question i asked earlier, which is, when you are seeing either frustration or disassociation from reality or where we are false conspiracies being spread, do you get the sense that there is an effort to try to get people to show up in real life to physically get out and do things that they might not do if the election were going a different way? >> there is this sense that it's possible they lost arizona. what they do with that information, how they push that to the most extreme parts of the party, some people can take that in a really severe way. we have seen it at paul pelosi's house. we have seen it f fbi house -- we have seen it across the country in the last couple of

years. but they are not accepting -- by the way, if you watch the spaces, they don't except on false fox news, calls for -- any win at all is not accepted. when they might not get control of the senate by the end of the night, i said despondent, that's not even really the word. they're catatonic right now. they can't really figure out how they messaged around the stink. there were at least raring for a fight in arizona, with voter fraud, and all the stuff. and that might not even matter if it comes. >> ben collins, watching the internet, watching extremism, washing responses for us tonight. as always, -- if there's something that we really need to see and that we really need to tell people about, thanks. let's go to nevada now, where a friend jacob silver off has been at polling places over the course of the seizing season. -- we saw very, very long lines. jacob soboroff is where we got the scoop that in fact people

were being given cheetos. you know with the root word of cheeto's? it is-o! >> [laughs] >> he's at the headquarters of the democratic senate candidate catherine cortez masto. -- it's got 1% in, which is why you should not even pay attention to it. this is too early to call. we have seen almost -- 1% so far from nevada thus far. >> yeah, and by the way, it is vegetables here, no cheetos. no crudités -- >> crudités -- >> crudités, crudités, or eventual platter. -- catherine cortez masto, senator from the state of nevada, -- adam laxalt just addressed supporters here. -- speaking right now. and as we suspected, as the county registrar joe gloria, of

clark county, i told us, early in the week, that they do not expect a result tonight -- in fact, they may not expect election results for a couple of days here in nevada. and that includes those contested house races as well. -- specifically because of the mail-in ballots and the drop boxes that we saw -- being dropped off at that polling location. one thing i think is important to look out for in the next couple of days is, remember, adam laxalt, catherine cortez masto's challenger -- two years ago, i was here for the presidential election. and the day after the presidential election, before the results were decided, a live press conference with rick cornell and -- outside of joe hershey's office outside the -- office here in las vegas, saying that there were thousands of illegitimate ballots cast in the election and that the presidential election was invalid or somehow fraudulent. that, of course, turned out to be a completely bogus claim.

it was debunked by the republican secretary of state -- investigations. but this question already, the integrity of the election, -- this campaign. let's see what happens tomorrow. but we have got an election denier running against the sitting u.s. senator here. she is saying they won't have results at least for a couple of days. there's nothing wrong with that. that's normal here. it's a ten-day certification process, as -- by state law. but there's a lot -- of nevada. >> jacob soboroff, thank you my friend. i had lots of questions to ask you but i can tell you are not going to be able to hear me when i ask you. the point that jake was making there about election officials admitting that it's gonna be a couple days before they have resulted nevada, and that's for all the nevada races -- that's an important thing to think about. look at what we are watching right now. it is, apart from house control, which, again, the nbc election discussing will not be decided tonight, there is no chance of that. but in georgia, we are

potentially looking at a runoff, which means december 6th. in pennsylvania, we have got, it's too close to call, or it's too early to call, with fetterman in the league. but we know that pennsylvania could take a long -- time it took four days to get a pennsylvania presidential result in 2020. nevada, as they are saying, as we just said, a couple of days for the count there -- and in arizona, officials have said it could be 10 to 12 days. and then if those of the races we are watching to decide, in the final estimate, how the party parties did and who is in power, it really is going to be a long time. it's not a theoretical matter anymore. >> also, to the conversation we are having with ben collins, we are entering the danger zone in terms of cries about election conspiracies and fraud, right? it may be one thing that the inter webs and steve bannon's of the worlds are despondent or catatonic, according to ben's reporting. but this period, where there is no announced winner, and where there are really close reese's in swing states, this is particularly the period that

has been weaponized, effectively, for the right-wing echo chamber to cry foul. and i think that we are entering treacherous territory because these races will be uncalled and because they are really tight. >> and republicans are going to have a choice to make tomorrow -- >> they sure are. >> a choice to make. like rusty bowers had to make the choice in maricopa county. they are going to have to say, we are going to wait until the votes are counted. -- >> and then you are going to know why i did it. nbc news now projects that in the senate race in the great state of pennsylvania, democrat john fetterman has won. this is a democratic -- >> wow! >> john fetterman defeating mehmet oz in pennsylvania. we previously characterize this as too early to call, with veteran in the league. i was on the verge of asking steve kornacki if he agreed with that fetterman in the league characterization. and now msnbc projects this as

a win for the democrats, which could be a -- 47 seats held by democrats, 46 held by republicans, and seven seats yet to be decided. steve we, have to go to you on this immediately. tell us what this means. >> as you say, now you have your first flip in the senate on the night. this is now a gain of one for the democrats. we will see the plus one here. remember, when we came into the night, 50/50 in the senate, and democrats have now gained one in pennsylvania. i realize now i have to delete the -- but basically, look, the three most vulnerable democratic incumbents that we are waiting on here are these three states, georgia, arizona and nevada. by winning pennsylvania, it means that the democrats can afford to lose one of these three and they would still control the senate. the republicans now would need to get at least two of these

three seats if they are going to control the senate. the other unfinished piece of business is in wisconsin. we can show you that in a minute. republicans are probably on the whole encouraged by the numbers ron johnson has their. in wisconsin -- it's known by no means unsettled matter. but if republicans do hang on to wisconsin, they would need to get two out of three that i just circled here. so let's take a look at the lay of the land in those three states right now. in georgia, we are now inching up towards 95% voting, 94% of the vote is in. the margin between warnock and walker sits at 13,000 votes right now. again, it's an incredibly striking difference between walkers 48.8 in the senate race and the 53.5 that brian kemp he's putting up in the governor's race. and take a look at these core republican -- outside the eight media atlanta metropolitan area. -- this is core republican area. check out the libertarian in

this race, the governor's race, nine tenths of 1% in this core republican county. now take a look at the senate race, the libertarian is getting 3% and walker is getting 65. and we are seeing this pattern throughout this area in counties like this. you are seeing the strength for the libertarian candidate, since it looks like people who voted for brian kemp did not want to vote democratic but also did not want to vote for herschel walker. again, we are 94% in right now. we are trying to get an exact read on where votes are left and, crucially, what type of vote is left to be counted here. but the distinct possibility is here that this is going to land with neither candidate, clearing 50% and then heading to a runoff. so, we go back to that map. and again, democrats, with their gain in pennsylvania, the potential for a runoff in georgia -- okay? and republicans need to win two of these. if we take a look at arizona, you've got -- and again, it doesn't look that

different from the last time we have showed you. i said what we are waiting on is same-day vote out of maricopa county. we really want to get a sense that it is going to be a lot of it. and we want to see if it is going to be very republican. again, and get masters closer in these things -- but two things to say. we have 20,000 roughly same-day votes that are counted out in maricopa county. it is kind of a drop in the bucket. we suspect it from strongly democratic areas. because the 20,000 that have been counted so far, kelly is leading. kelly is leading by double digits in that 20,000 that have been counted. again, they could just be from democratic areas, so a cautionary note there. but what's emerging in arizona, we talked about this before. it's a split between masters and kari lake of -- masters is running at -- about a three and a half point split. that split is persisting in the 20,000 same-day votes -- you are in a situation where,

masters, if you have him running a three and a half points behind, like that makes it hard to see nassar's out of the path of what we are showing you here. that leads to that, at where we did just get clark county into thirds of the vote from clark county. that's vegas and the immediate area. this is two thirds -- i'll give you a point of comparison. this same batch, when we got it in 2020, in the presidential election, we got about 70% in clark county all at once. and that came in at 54 to 44 biden. so, just a point of comparison, in the initial batch here coming in at 55 to 42 for corto's mast au over laxalt. this is like 70% in nevada -- that's the lay of the land right now. republicans, are going to need, at least -- >> steve, i'm going to ask our group here to respond to this john fetterman news here. but there's one less clarifying thing i want to ask you about the georgia senate, and it's about alex wagner's friend --

>> [laughs] >> your buddy, mr. oliver -- you are talking about the prospect that neither warnock nor walker is going to get to 50% -- i'm looking at the raw vote number for mr. oliver. he is at -- i can't quite see, 79, 000, 78,000 votes -- >> yelp. >> is that a large enough number of votes, that even went -- >> is that -- >> does he have a chunk big enough of the electorate already? does he have enough votes so that it is more likely than not that neither counted it will get 50%? it >> depends, honestly, where and what type, so critically, what type of vote is remaining. and that's what we are trying to get a handle on. in georgia -- at midnight, i believe it is, release, this is one of the procedures this year -- i'm trying to get a hold of this. -- how much of the voters left and

what type it is. and that would answer that question, if there is enough to get somebody over 50. >> thanks very much, steve. our friend claire mccaskill has joined us here at the arc shaped table. we have -- >> mi smiling? >> you are pleased about this result in pennsylvania on behalf of the democrats? >> yes, i am. >> i am not surprised. -- he was never behind in the polling. and listen, oz had huge problems, huge problems. if you look at tonight, donald trump's candidates that won primaries that he picked, the only one that he has got his vance. that is it. nce. and it doesn't look like to me, based on the conversations i am having with the campaigns on the ground, that arizona is going to turn out the way they hoped. and frankly, are the numbers in clark county look better than they all thought they were going to look at noon today?

so, we are really seeing something here we are i will make a prediction -- i think the chances are 50/50 that we will have leader schumer already in place when there is a runoff in georgia in place. >> you think that the democrats will hold nevada and hold arizona, at which point georgia would be gravy? >> georgia would be gravy. and frankly, as i said earlier, i think there is a good chance that might change the result in georgia, because of all the republicans that were holding their nose just because they wanted senate control. >> can i just say about the fetterman campaign, they ran an amazing campaign. at the technical level, they have a candidate who has a very severe stroke -- before the primary. he is recovering from state choking one of the most competitive and watched races in the country in a state that's extremely narrow. their ability to define mehmet

oz early while their candidate was unable to campaign in person, their ability to work through and be transparent about the health problems he was recovering from, and they're messaging -- like, it was a remarkably well -- just at a political level of operative in this -- it was a remarkable level. >> -- let's also say, john fetterman, recovering from a stroke, tenacious, focused and on stoppable through a health event that i think would have taken a lot of people out of the game. >> -- pennsylvania center senate voters,'s john fetterman in good enough health to serve? -- look how close that was. >> -- i think we are also seeing a republican party that had a good hand in the fundamentals we have covered all night, with regard to inflation, mid term of a first term president, the president's approval rating. that is just fundamentally in good hands. they played it badly because they gave it to trump, they had

candidate quality problems because of donald trump. they ran in many ways on extremism. i don't think we can also fully measure what it means for, shall we call, them honest regular voters? normies, if you will, rachel, when the -- >> why do i get the normies reference? [laughs] >> because you are fantastic, you have a feel for this. this is a serious point. this party is tied to a violent insurrection. not all republicans, in fairness, and not all were elected republicans. but many important ones are tied to minimizing or tacitly supporting the violent overthrow of the united states government. and then there is a dastardly violent attack that has now been indicted as a attempted murder as a family member of the speaker of the house and many other prominent republicans, some candidates on the ballot, others just in the mix, minimize, laugh about or even seem to tacitly support that the violence. so, the violence is a --

careful, i'm saying not all -- also figures into this closing thing. so, pennsylvania, as clear mccaskill and others know, is a place where quasi-moderate or supposedly moderate republicans could win statewide, whether we want to debate how moderate they really were, that was the brand. and so, if i may quote -- it ain't were you from, it is where you are at. where you are from, two or four or six years ago, even if it was debatable, claiming to be moderate, you cannot claim to be moderate when you are apologizing for and minimizing convicted seditionist's, indicted attempted murderers and others, so that hangs over all of us even if we put it as precisely as possible. it ain't where you are from, it's where you are at. you are at home trump and some of the insurrectionists. -- >> and by the way, where oz is from his new jersey. >> [laughs] >> one other thing as well, and i will make a much more mundane point. -- i don't really remember all the lyrics right now --

>> -- >> don't make me do this. i will wrap battle you right here on the set. i'm an og. listen -- a more mundane point, i think we are also seeing just, from a campaign perspective, i think larry mccaskill will relate to this, of giving up absentee voting just as model of gotv -- happening to count on only election day. we are seeing that in arizona as well. if you are basically saying on election day than if it rains, then if it snows, if your people get a flat tire, you are literally counting on -- and that was a trump decision. so, that's another way in which donald trump has altered the party in a way to make it less electable. because no campaign wants to just rely on election day and -- >> yes! >> -- it was vote as late as possible -- as opposite as the conventional wisdom. it's vote early.

it's elections one-on-one. >> -- had a -- going into this. and then republicans had to catch up to a 5 million early vote lead. >> and to your point, for no actual upside, right? so, when you talk about, trump is a sort of demographic trade where he is much better with white voters without a college degree, and they lost the suburbs, and does that work out, there is no upside to just how many people -- >> there is. if you plan on -- >> correct, correct. yes. >> -- specific buckets of votes that you say should not be counted. >> right. >> -- leave the conversation of oz and fetterman without talking of authenticity. john fetterman kind of oozed authenticity. he was who he was, he dressed how he dressed, he was comfortable in his own skin. meanwhile, we have crudités's. and then maybe the biggest sin

of all, the sunday -- or saturday before the election, he makes reference -- all his does -- in pennsylvania. he says go out and find ten voters before the steelers game tomorrow. the steelers had a bye. they did not even play the next day. he did not even know the steelers schedule. now that is really -- >> -- >> what's weird is that green coffee beans did not fix it. >> yeah, the damn magic pill in a bottle. i've been looking for it all my adult life! >> coup de grâce at the end and say if i was in pennsylvania, i'd be voting for fetterman. -- he was never down in the polls. he was up the whole time. and again, the other opportunity cost, republicans decided they wanted to -- the polling averages, with all these little junkie poles, when made by some high school kids, we are going to throw it in there because we want to psych out the democrats, we want to

make them think they are going to lose before they even vote. we want to make it look like it's going to be a red wave. but when you say that, you've created this incredible expectation on your side. and that's why they are demoralize now because they did not have a realistic expectation of what this election -- >> but will they accept it? >> probably not. >> and your point about how we are entering an inter reckoning period -- that may take days and -- that, i think, can't be stressed enough. i want to go back to steve kornacki if we can, for a moment. steve, i'm curious about wisconsin and the senate. >> -- governors race in wisconsin. it's interesting. we have seen this, kind of, in a few other states. you see tony ever, the democratic incumbent, leading by about three points over his republican challenger tim michaels. that's the governor's race. here's the senate race. it's actually a reversal. there is ron johnson sitting at 50.7% and mandela barnes, his democratic challenger, just

under 40,000 votes behind. we just got a big batch of votes from milwaukee county. we talked about that end of the night city of milwaukee absentee vote. we believe that that's what just came in. they tighten this race substantially and added to barnes's total significantly in milwaukee county. it was about 62,000 votes. he got about 55,000 of them. so, we cut johnson's lead. what johnson still has going for him here is -- and it's a big republican county here, we're there still -- some vote to come in there. still voting waukesha county, where he's -- ozawkie county is still -- there is also some vote in dane county, not a ton, but there is still some here, where democrats can make a bit more ground. but you see up to 40,000 -- and they're still in milwaukee as well. so, it's very close here. just to give you a sense -- i'm trying to find here, let's see if we can --

let's take a look here. how is johnson running compared to trump? remember, trump barely lost the state in 2020, a 20,000 vote margin. you start to look at some of these counties and how is johnson doing? green bay, brown county, johnson right now is running a couple points ahead of trump's number there. as we showed you, in these counties right outside of milwaukee, he is running two and a half points better in ozaukee county. he's running three and a half points -- close to four points -- better in washington county. he's running about three points count better in waukesha county. that's what is giving johnson a chance. that's what's resembling most of these counties, the 2020 results here, with johnson doing it in these republican areas just a bit better than trump did. but then you take a look at dane county, mandela barnes may squeeze a few more votes out of there, at least a little bit more of a margin than biden did. milwaukee, let's see what the remaining, now that we have that absentee -- but yeah -- it's updated.

let's just see -- a little bit more came in. not sure of that small amount from that county. there are a lot of small, remaining portions from a lot of the red counties you see on this map here that will offset, potentially for johnson, the gains that barnes can still make. a lot more just came in. -- the race too close to call here. -- he's going for his third term here. but also, potentially, a split, potentially a split between the governor's race in the senate race. if johnson falls short in this, and mandela ends up catching and winning this, that's as close to -- as you can get from -- point because that would be a second democratic gain. democrats would gain wisconsin. they have already gained pennsylvania tonight. and then republicans would need to sweep georgia, arizona, nevada. and it would be very hard to conceive of republicans doing that on a night when they are losing wisconsin and losing pennsylvania. so, the importance for republicans of johnson holding

on to that edge that he has as the final votes come into wisconsin, is, if he is able to do that and he's able to hold that seat, then republicans are left trying to come up with a victory in one of these democratic held seats to get back -- excuse me, two victories in these democratic held seats, to get their majority in the senate. >> steve, i'm going to ask you about the michigan governor's race in just a second. i do just want to tell our viewers, while you are getting that up, that we are expecting john fetterman to be speaking any moment in pennsylvania. you are looking at a live shot there. fetterman headquarters. we are expecting mr. fetterman to give a victory speech. abc news now projects that fetterman has won a pennsylvania senate race against republican mehmet oz. we will bring you some of that speech when mr. fetterman starts his remarks. but over to michigan out. we have seen secretary of state joscelyn benson there we elected, the democratic secretary of state reelected in a statewide race. we have been very interested to see what is going to happen with democratic governor

gretchen whitmer gretchen whitmer in michigan. >> yeah, if you want to compare the two of them, i will show you the secretary of state's results here. here is what it looks like in the secretary of state's race. benson with a nine-point advantage -- let's call up the governor race. whitmer, you see the advantage, not quite as finance, a bit less than 6% for whitmer, about -- percent of the vote. take a look at this. where is the remaining vote in michigan? the bubble, the bigger the bubble, the more vote there is. and i think you can see here, look how much of it -- by far the biggest county in the state, wayne county, the biggest share is coming from wayne county. because, it's where detroit is and you can see not even half the vote from wayne county yet -- it's just core democratic area. the still remaining vote from washington talk county -- there is not much in -- it's become sort of a democratic bastion. there is still a lot to come in macomb county. macomb is an interesting county because this was sort of the

iconic home of the reagan democrats once upon a time. and donald trump did very well here and you can see tutor tutor dixon -- out of macomb county. also, again, tennessee county there, -- grand rapids here. you've got in kent county still a lot of vote to come. there's a congressional district we have been talking about -- michigan's third district based in there as well. the remaining vote will be significant for that as. well you see a lot of the democratic areas with a lot of outstanding vote in michigan. and you see whitmer without advantage right, now about 180,000 votes. it's a little bit less than six points. it's not quite at the level that benson is at when you see that race get called. what if you are whitmer and you see where the vote is still to come, that is encouraging sign for you. >> steve, i'm going to break one of these rules and ask you something i don't actually know if you have these on your board. what do you have the michigan attorney generals race? >> yeah, here we can call it

off. and there you can see -- there is a huge disconnect between the number of votes that have been counted in this race and those that have encountered in the secretary of state's race. >> that's interesting. >> yes, that's a question i'm going to try to get to the bottom of right now. >> yeah, it's where you would have 69% in the governor's race, 59% in the secretary of state's race, and less than 20% in in the gout ags race? >> yes, and i'm wondering if there might be an issue. -- >> look, we zoomed in on a problem we did not know about. the overall situation here remains unsettled in terms of senate control and in terms of house control and in terms of a number of important governors races. ? i of know we have been talking about the danger zone in terms of election deniers and potential pressure ex parte improper pressure on people who are counting the vote now, people who have incredible pressure on them. i wonder a bit about

traditional political accountability. if things change inside the republican party because of a shocking development like this -- and i'm not saying it is shocking because it is shocking for the democrats and republicans to be inside control of the house and senate. they may be tightly fighting over the house control the house and senate -- >> because reactions tend to be so pegged against expectations, again, to go back to the 2016 shot. if on election night this were happening on the democratic side, the amount of circular firing squad, recriminations, accountability, factional beefs, bloodletting on social media between, you nominated this person and -- it would be out of control at this point. republicans keep avoiding that moment. they keep avoiding it. and again, i am telling you, republicans are watching this, you've got to have it. you have got to have this moment. and i know what you are going to say -- they always choose trump, they always to trump. and that is true. but at a certain point, it just

becomes clear that he is a net political loss. >> the turtle had a feeling. >> the turtle knew. >> -- >> we retract that. >> no, i -- >> candidate quality. >> it was just my entrée into candidate quality. mitch mcconnell made a -- he uses a lot of those words. but he was concerned about this -- mccarthy was on board 100% with the trump mob thing. and we had reporters from the mccarthy party tonight. i think there may not be -- and i can't predict -- whether there will be any political accountability, but internally, privately, there is clearly a debate over what they are running and why other -- when inflation has been over 8% -- and yes, that's a different era, so it's not apples to apples -- we have seen 20 or 30 seats go. just the inflation, plus the midterms historical precedent.

we talk tonight -- and many people made a point at the stable -- first time in 50 years you had roe v. wade gutted after these justices went and said the opposite under oath to the senate and the political violence and a lot of other things. so, there is a lot of stuff in here. but it would seem that, at least behind closed doors, they're going to be prominent republicans that are going to say, you blew it. >> but let's just be clear. this is not so much a question about trump. this is a question of what kind of party do you want to be? and time over time -- there is john fetterman. let's see what he has to say. >> fetterman is projected to be the winner of the pennsylvania senate race.

(crowd chanting, fetterman) >> i -- >> (crowd chanting, fetterman) >> i'm not really sure what to say right now. >> -- a winner! [applause] >> yeah, i mean -- i am so humbled. thank you so much, really. thank you. . what is it, it is 1:30 am in the morning, and you are still hanging in?

we launched this campaign almost two years ago and we had our slogan. it's on every one of those signs right now. every county, every vote. and that's exactly what happened, we jammed them up we held the line. i never expected that we were going to turn these red counties blue but we did when we needed to do -- and we had that conversation around every one of those counties. and tonight that is why i will be the next u.s. senator from pennsylvania!

[applause] thanks to all of you, all of you. thank you, thank you so much. -- grateful right now. and i want to thank, of course, all our supporters all across pennsylvania, all in this room, and everyone that chipped in $10 to help us get here. thank you. [applause] i also really want to thank my family. mom, my mother, my father --

my brother greg. and we are is gisele? gisele, who six months ago, she saved my life. walking out of a bathroom, she recognized what was happening. and also, my children, carl, grace -- everyone, thank you. i also want to thank my team as well. so many names -- brandon my campaign manager --

rebecca, joe, jason, everybody on my team. there's so many that were part of it. and also, i think all of our supporters also. and i am just so proud of the race we are in and this campaign has always been about fighting for everyone who has ever been knocked down, that ever got back up. [applause] this race is for the future of every community all across pennsylvania. ss pennsylvania. and for every small town or person that felt left behind. for every job that has ever been lost, for every factory

that was never closed, for every person that works hard but never got ahead -- i am proud of what we ran on. protecting a woman's right to choose -- [applause] raising our minimum wage -- [applause] fighting the union way of life -- health care as a fundamental human right. it saved my life and it should all be there for you. [applause] standing up to corporate greed -- making more things right here in america, right here in pennsylvania! [applause] and standing up for our democracy. 20 years ago, i came to braddock --

and i spent these last two decades fighting for the forgotten communities. because no community deserves to be left behind. no one deserves to be abandoned. and every place matters. [applause] and i want to, again, thank all our amazing supporters, all of you, and all watching and every -- we bet on the people of pennsylvania. and you did not let us down. my promise to all of you -- >> i apologize for breaking and in the middle of the victory speech for john fetterman in the pennsylvania senate race, but this is an important projection. and we see now projects that in the governor's race, the democratic incumbent tony evers, who had a tough fight on his hands -- tony avers is reelected as the

democratic governor of wisconsin. nbc news can also project that in the united states senate race in utah, republican incumbent mike lee will be returning to the-ites eight senate. he was facing an interesting challenge from an independent candidate, evan mcmullin, who, unlike other independents in the senate, said he would not caucus like other party. that would make the mid math really interesting. -- the senate at this hour, democrats hold 47 seats. republicans hold 47 seats. there are six set seats that are as of yet undecided. let's go to steve right now, in terms of what we are learning out of wisconsin. steve? >> yeah. to just razor-thin senate races. you've got the gubernatorial call and wisconsin. we've established there is a little bit of distance here between tim michaels, the republican governor's race, who is lost. he sitting at 48% -- and ron johnson, the republican incumbent in the senate races we're running almost three point sweater, and is sitting at 50.7%, about a 40,000 vote

lead over mandela barnes. -- there is remaining vote in milwaukee county and there's remaining vote in dane county. dane county is nearly 80% for bonds right now. milwaukee county is 70% for barnes. as you can, expect the remaining votes there, there's opportunities for him to really cut deep into that johnson lead. there is also remaining vote in some of these to urban counties outside of milwaukee, scattered remaining vote, the smaller red counties throughout the state, there are also opportunities for johnson as well. but just an extremely tight senate race -- to remind you, wisconsin in 2020, the margin of the presidential race with joe biden by 20,000 votes. and the margin in wisconsin in the 2016 race was 20,000 the other way for donald trump. so, this is kind of converging where these wisconsin races tend to converge.

very last-minute, very -- is one is crucial because republicans, given the loss they have absorbed in pennsylvania, really just cannot afford a second senate race. they desperately need ron johnson to hang on to this lead in wisconsin. the other place where it is extraordinary close, and we've been following all night, is in georgia. 95% now. the difference is about 21,000 votes between warnock and walker. now to give you a sense of where the remaining vote is, i think there is some here. there is a fair amount. we start here in cobb county. cobb county you can see here has become a democratic county, it has become a blue county. it used to be a red county. this is metro atlanta. you see how warnock is doing here. there is some indication that this is mail in voting. there is a big mail-in component to this remaining vote in cobb. if so, that's a huge plus for warnock, because warnock is winning the mail-in vote by a huge margin. the same day vote in kobe's

only winning by a couple of points. but there's an opportunity for warnock, when where the other, to bank more votes. there's also an opportunity for warnock in gwinnett county -- so far. there is still some to come in fulton county, where -- biggest in the state. we benchmark this at the start of the night and said warnock basically wants to be running at the biden number because the by the numbers just enough to win statewide. the biden number was 72 to 6 in -- and warnock is wanting at 73%. the biggest place, actually, the biggest outstanding source of republican votes are the suburbs of augusta. you can see here overwhelmingly republican, not have to vote in yet. so, this is where walker has an opportunity to net some votes to make up some ground. and the question of kind of be coming here, is there a way in this atlanta metro area for warnock to gain enough votes, not just to finish ahead of herschel walker but to get to 50% plus one?

and to avoid that runoff. that is the key question here in georgia right now. there are, in these democratic areas of metro atlanta, still a fair number of votes to come. there are some -- is there a path for warnock to move this number up? -- we go to a runoff, and again, we have been waiting for more clarity in arizona, and really not much has changed, and that picture, we are just trying to get a picture of that same day vote. -- just checking back in right now. crucially important -- if ron johnson loses this race, republicans would have lost wisconsin, they will have lost pennsylvania. and that's a net loss of two. they would then need to win georgia and arizona and nevada. that would be their only path to controlling the senate. >> steve, can i ask you a couple governors questions? >> yeah.

>> let's ask you about michigan governor and nevada governor. >> yeah, take a look here in nevada. again, basically, we still at washington -- clark county, the same vote we got from clark county. it's between clark and washington. that's almost a ball game. we have a bit here you can see from carson city as well here. but really it is all about clark and washington. what you are seeing here, cortez masto, let's focus on clark -- two thirds of the vote, 55 to 42 here in the senate race. now let's take a look at the governor's race. and you see cisa lack sisolak -- clark county, mother lode of votes, it's a tough place for republicans and it's a tough nut for them to crack and that's one of the things, they that made an lombardo attractive candidate for them. but there's some medications that sisolak might run behind cortez masto. again, you look sort of

statewide, is sisolak at 52.9% in -- county so far. and cortez masto a point and change north of that. so, again, it's a theme we see. we saw it in george. we may be seeing it in wisconsin. we are definitely seeing a split in arizona how between how kari lake and blake masters are doing, whether it ends in one of them winds and one of them loses, we don't know. but we also seeing a little bit of distance here as well between cortez masto, the incumbent democratic senator, and sisolak the incumbent democratic governor. >> steve, can you also pop up to oregon, if you don't mind me asking about the governor's race there? this is a race where there is, in that governor's race, an interesting third party candidate who is very well funded and the partisan lines there are a bit more of a helix in some cases than they are a straight slash. so, how are we seeing this here in oregon? >> yeah, you can see it right there, betsy johnson, the third party candidate, the money from phil knight of, nike fame, has been helping to fuel her campaign in the state and look

at the difference between the senate race that has been cold. ron wyden, the democratic incumbent, 55 to -- >> steve, i have to interrupt you. i'm sorry, we have a call. this is in the governor's race in the great state of michigan. nbc news can now project that in the great state of michigan in the governor's race, democratic incumbent governor gretchen whitmer has been reelected. we have seen just in the last few minutes, we have a reelected democratic governor in michigan. we have another one in wisconsin. this was a pick up that the republicans, i think, the republicans felt confident about. but we see gretchen whitmer returning to the state house there. steve, i'm sorry. there i have interrupted you there, but that's big news. >> yes, it absolutely is. and just to give you another piece, that we are getting. there's a house call as well in the third district of wisconsin. so, this is a democratic held district that now has been flipped. this is significant, this is a

pick up for republicans. iran kind was the democratic incumbent and this is one of those you -- can see it's on our list here of one by trump. you -- this is the first -- one and we have a second call that just came in a last-minute as well. right here in texas, texas 15. we are talking about this one tonight. there's three south historic districts and you can see monica della cruz is going to win that. and you can see five republican pick ups in the house, in districts that were just want to get republicans pick ups. texas 15 was given republicans -- but republicans take advantage of that in texas 15. and now wisconsin three, republicans, this is a district i have been eyeing for a long time. they could not beat out ron kind. ron kind retired. and now republicans they get. you see seven gains there for republicans and that frontline, that new jersey second race is now been called eight gains for

republicans. nine is virginia's second district that was called earlier in the night. then you start looking here at the -- i'm sorry, this is gop won by biden. my apologies. what we are trying to going to get to here is where the democrats have picked up -- on confusing myself here. here we go. the four that democrats have counted so far -- north carolina 13, texas 34, and ohio one. so, that brings a gain of nine for republicans that we went through back down to five with what the democrats have gained in the seats so far. >> so, they are looking for five tonight to win control of the house. right now, as it stands, with lots of races outstanding, they are at a five seat pick up. i am -- again, i'm sorry to be asking you to jump -- but could we look at the house race in montana? >> let's -- >> montana, the first -- >> yeah. so this is newly-created because of population growth,

montana gets an extra house seat here and take a look here. in rosendale, the incumbent is reelected. -- this is the one where democrats, have on paper, an opportunity. trump carried it by seven points under this configuration. you can see ryan zinke, obviously well-known here, former secretary of the interior, trailing with about half the vote counted. what is unclear and what we are trying to determine is exactly what the vote is that's been tallied so far, if this is democratic friendly or republican friendly. but this is one of those districts that democrats have had their eyes on late in this campaign. and on paper this is an encouraging number. we are just trying to find out -- montana is not the most transparent here in terms of the vote type. but this is what it looks like at 50%. >> what we are looking at that in montana, is it possible for us to look at that abortion ban that proposition that was on the ballot here? not sure if proposition was the right word but development

you're on abortion rights. -- i know voters a vote against. it put that back up again. can we just -- don't need to see me. see steve. with 41% of the vote in -- that's the no vote at 55% and a yes is 44%. so, you have to wonder if it is going to be close, with that one house race in montana. you have to wonder if that's going to make some difference. >> it's an important point. i think now -- i don't know five of those ballot measures -- i don't know which ones have been called and which ones we have not but they have all either in the abortion direction of abortion rights or really, really close -- >> we should look at kentucky if we have a full screen, of the kentucky abortion ban results. we know that california, proposition number two, enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution, as well as the vermont one. those are both colin favorite. this kentucky one has been close all night. 81% of the vote is in. this is a ban.

so, the yes vote is to ban abortion in kentucky. the no vote is to not ban it. and this is in kentucky -- we have seen rand paul reelected tonight to the senate seat. this number is still omitting 1%. there is only four points between them. so, this could go, obviously, either way, and there is no protection here. but none of the races that we have seen related to abortion in any of these five states have gone in the other direction. >> and to ja's point earlier, there were a lot of people, republican candidates, who support abortion rights, or certainly don't support the most extreme possible measures to limit them, and we have seen that in kansas the summer. we saw the -- >> special election in new york, which again, new york, none of the polling shows that either of those were going to happen. in kansas, it did not show up in the polls at all, and democrats won in both of those cases, because even conservative voters see this as a liberty issue. it's not just an abortion issue. it's a liberty issue. >> we have had a couple of calls that i should let our

viewers know about. sorry to interrupt. we have a poll closing in alaska, since we have been on the air, in alaska, in the senate race in alaska. nbc news at this hour -- excuse me, there is a call, a projected winner, forgive me -- in the hawaii senate race. democratic incumbent brian schatz the, democratic senator in hawaii, tonight he was on the ballot. he is projected to be reelected to the senate. now we will go up to alaska. -- this is interesting. this is a republican on republican senate race in alaska. the incumbent lisa murkowski is facing a republican challenger who is a trump endorsed candidate. right now this is too early to call, with just over one -- facing a republican challenger. this will be a rank choice voting decision in alaska. in the governor's race in alaska, we are also looking at a race that is too early to call.

the incumbent for palm republican there is mike dunleavy, facing a challenge from bill worker bill walker. that's too early to call in the alaska governor's race. we were talking a few minutes ago about political accountability and i think that cliché term a soul searching among republicans for a kind of shocking result that they have had tonight, rich large, obviously -- they have had some great spots. but overall, the night has not gone the way they wanted to or expected it to. i want to bring into the conversation, along those lines, former republican congressman, carlos curbelo, who has been one of our political insiders tonight. i'm wondering, congressman, as we are having this conversation, if it is resonating for you in terms of how you think the party is going to respond to the overall results tonight and what you are expecting over this into regular that we are happening -- final results. >> rachel, i have already heard from some republicans, they're frustrated, they're dejected, one saying this is not working for us and this is the decided -- for donald trump.

but the big question is, of course, will republicans actually say these things outside and in front of cameras? because we know that since donald trump got onto the stage, a lot of republicans have said a lot of negative things about him privately, but very few dare say it in an audible voice. but certainly, republicans are frustrated with this outcome tonight. and they understand that the party needs to move in a different direction. >> do you think it is the assessment, rich large, in the party, that trump is the problem? that trump is the albatross? are you hearing about the discussions around the roe v. wade this engine, for example? or around any of the other issues, policy issues, and messaging issues that the party took into these contexts? >> i have heard a couple people say tonight that mitch mcconnell was right in that mitch mcconnell months ago pointed to this problem, that donald trump had helped a few republican candidates, specifically in the senate, but also in the house, make it to the general election and that these candidates were unelectable. for a while there it seemed

like maybe mcconnell was wrong. but at the end of the day, people are looking back at the experienced senate leader and saying, maybe he had a point. >> one of the bright spots, obviously, tonight, for republicans, has been the state a florida, we're not only did governor ron desantis wants to a redirection reelection victory in the race, but we saw a number of congressional districts go for republicans on the night when not much else did. i wonder if that means, if that translates, into just respect for redistricting aggression or whether that translates directly into a surge in power within the party for governor desantis, as he is quite obviously running eyeing a run for the presidency himself. >> rachel, i don't think rhonda santas or his team could have written a better script for his team him personally tonight. number one, if republicans do win a narrow majority in the house, he could take credit for that majority. because he was so aggressive in demanding that the florida

legislature redraw districts the way he instructed them to do. i remind people, that the florida legislature had already negotiated a map with democrats that was a little kinder to the democratic party. but desantis insisted and, again, if republicans eke out a narrow win here in the house he can take credit for that. on top of, that desantis clearly outperformed when you look at how republicans have done in other states. and very specifically, outperformed trump backed candidates, reminding people that ron desantis refused to campaign with donald trump for his reelection. so, this has been quite a night for him. and certainly, this is a beginning of the republican presidential primary, a big confrontation between donald trump and ron desantis. >> carlos curbelo, a man who knows of what he speaks. thank, you sir, it's good to have you with us tonight. while we have been speaking there's, another projection to make. nbc news at this hour has a projection to make in the governor's race in the state of hawaii. the democratic candidate in

hawaii, josh greene green he's the projected winner. that's a whole for the democratic party. -- while we have been on the air these last few minutes, house speaker nancy pelosi has issued a statement on the election. that will read it to you in full. it's, as well many races remain too close to call, it is clear that house democratic members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country. as states continue to tabulate the final results, every vote must be counted as cast. many thanks to our grassroots volunteers for enabling every voter to have their say in our democracy. every vote must be counted as cast. pointed. >> an indicator of concern, i think, about where we may be headed. we were having this conversation about what the republican party does now. and while i think it is a bad night for trump, listen to what ron desantis has done in florida.

look at the reality of what the gop did before trump was their titular head. -- embrace democratic norms as a means of staying in, power whether it's voter suppression or breathtaking gerrymandering. these are the norms of the republican party. and so while they may toss trump overboard, the bedrock foundations of what this party is about and how they cling to power, that has not changed. and i have yet to see a republican leader who has disavowed that. and that is a cautionary moment for us, thinking, oh, they are going to turn the ship around into -- ameliorate themselves, if you will. >> i'm glad you said that. because i think there is this tendency in the media -- similar things were done with glenn youngkin, to say, oh, this is the alternative trump. no, glenn youngkin is just banning books and having a snitch line and trump could not think of those two things. >> and ron desantis -- on steroids. >> yes, and ron desantis is implementing this -- this version of christian

nationalists based education in florida. he has strong-arm corporations and said you will take the knee to me if i don't like what you say, if i don't like your policies, i will punish you. >> -- >> right. and disney, that two billion dollar tax abatement, that is going on to the books of orange county. it could bankrupt orange county if they have to take on those debts. he sued a cruise line because they wanted to have mask mandates. this is somebody who took 20 people who were in texas, who were in legal asylum seeking, and put them on a plane, stunned, and -- >> and inadvertently expedited their visas. >> right. >> -- >> for him, the cruelty is the point. it shows that the cruelty is the point without the trump charisma. but he is still the same guy. >> before we get into -- the department, let me just say, rhonda scent is, there is a lot of hype around rhonda scent is in republican circles.

i think he is a relatively untested figure nationally outside the florida and fox bubble. so, before everyone says, the colossus that doth stride the state of florida -- on the accountability question, which i think is broader than donald trump, i think, also, tonight they're really high on their own supply on culture war stuff over there. and they are sure it works. and everything is about the horrible libs who want to turn your seven year old trans and -- >> groom -- >> the most lowered scenes of violent crime, over and over again. >> -- i think a lot of democrats thought, oh, that stuff lands. and tonight, if nothing else, it is like -- >> no it doesn't. >> people accuse liberals of being inside their bubble all the time. there is a culture war bubble they have created for themselves out there that i think is a little untethered

from the normally voter and the median voter. >> let's bring into the conversation our friend jen psaki who has been watching the results come in. jim, we have seen the fetterman victory in pennsylvania, and as we've seen this remarkable projection from the nbc news election desk, will republicans are projected to have 219 seats, but it is plus or minus 15, and so therefore, it is essentially equally likely that either party could end up controlling the house -- not the senate, the house -- tonight, how are you -- how do you make sense of it? >> first of all, this tells you a lot about not to believe every poll you see, every tweet you see, every pundits take you see. it was we would have believed every take we saw, john fetterman would have dropped out of the race after the debate. and clearly, that had no impact. so, it's so important, i think, not to project on to voters what they think before we see what they think. it is fascinating that we are coming at it tonight without knowledge of who is going to control the house. and what is also interesting

about that, rachel, to me, is that if republicans take control, there is this big question we have all been talking about, about whether kevin mccarthy can even win enough votes to be the sticker speaker. if democrats maintain control, there are still questions as to whether speaker pelosi stays or not. and she will -- that herself. so there is a big question, a couple of weeks from now, who the speaker of the house is? who will be third in line for the presidency? and that is a fascinating unknown to come out of tonight with. the other piece i will just say, that is interesting to me, is that all of the ticket splitting we have seen in states across the country. and that tells you a lot about the fact that people are making choices and decisions about candidates. and some of these candidates, republicans nominated and selected, were terrible. and it played out that way. anbut the ticket splitting, i think, is something we will have to dive into more in the days ahead. >> and jen psaki, i have to ask

you, having been so recently a senior figure in the biden white house -- told him it was way too early to say. it and two hours later he was like, can i say it now? the answer is yes. and that this is, this is obviously a huge political endorsement of joe biden as president of the united states. and i know people are going to give me a hard time for saying that. but i say it, in this specific context. first term presidents always lose a ton of seats in the midterms. we have had one exception to that, the post world war ii era. and it was right after 9/11. before tonight -- and it may be that the democrats end up losing some seats overall. we don't know. but they are not going to be losing 60 seats, 50 seats, 30 seats, 40 seats, which is a more normal night. just in terms of the historical arc here, and in terms of what this looks like in political science textbooks -- and so what does the biden white house do with that? the biden approval rating is basically bill boarded on all

washington based punditry as if that -- >> fire -- >> yes. what did they do with this? >> the president, obviously, i think, will feel this way. i have been in touch with the white house. they are giddy and gleeful, as they should be, and about where things are sitting tonight, rachel -- but also, candidates, regardless of what the outcome is, candidates were not running against the biden agenda. if republicans want to -- a bunch of seats, it was not because democrats were running away from the inflation reduction act and doing something about climate change or building bridges and fixing roads. or running away from biden saying, i want you to codify roe and protect a woman's right to choose -- the take away, to me, is this is the right agenda. the democrats ran on this agenda, it was the right agenda. and i think a lot of these fights, including abortion, including fights about what to do about inflation and bring down costs will continue. and this agenda is the right

one. and that is the good news for democrats. but yes, i can tell you, they are gleeful. they are probably ordering chicken fingers and french fries in the white house. >> [laughs] >> that's what i used to do when i was there, to celebrate a little bit. and this is a very different foreign trip that they are leaving on into days -- >> yet, tonight is i likely to be ice cream social day. >> yes, for the president especially. >> thank you, jen psaki. let's go to steve kornacki with a look at nevada. we have a closely watched governor's race in a closely watched senate race in nevada. what did we get to? >> yes, we got to the early mail votes from clark county, that just came in a few minutes. we have washout county, this is where we know is -- and we have it here in washoe county -- cortez masto leading back. -- we continue to see a split there, where sisolak, the incumbent democratic governor running about a point and a

half behind -- when it leads up to -- a seven-point advantage. in the senate race, a nine-point advantage for catherine cortez masto. also significantly, in nevada, we told you of those three house seats. and since we are talking about house control, let's check in. remember, democrats broke up the first congressional district in an effort to try to shore up the third district. susie lee, democratic incumbent, two thirds of the vote. you can see she is leading there. this is the first district they broke their. dina titus -- also attempting to shore up the fourth district, where stephen horsford is the -- and the democrats with some pretty significant legs up so far, in the county there. if that holds, that gamble for democrats will have paid off an event. that they needed to pay off because we are seeing here, just to give you a little bit more of a sense there, on the house side, again, these are democratic house seats that republicans flip -- they need a net gain of five.

you can see on this page there are seven right now, that were won by trump. there is an eight there in new jersey. a ninth in virginia as well, and this is where the democrats have had a problem at this hour in the house side. -- five new york-based democratic districts where they are running into varying degrees of trouble. i will give you an example. this is the chairman of the dccc, sean patrick maloney. the irony of this, on a night when his party is doing so much better in the house -- >> -- >> he's in serious danger of losing this race. the third district here, let's look at this, george santos, it's a democratic district online island. nassau county, biden won it by eight, george santos, a lot of folks looked at him and thought he was a weak candidate here. but he has been able to build up a pretty solid lead. their next, at the fourth, -- look at this, this was a biden

plus 15 district and it's a very interesting dynamic here because, yeah, kathy hochul has been reelected governor of new york, but lee zeldin has done really well on ellen island. and these get really well when you get into the hudson valley, when you get into the catskills and the southern tier. and democrats are in danger of losing a bunch of seats in new york. these would all be republican gains if they bring the republican way. so, that -- it's incredible irony. the dccc chairman could lose his own seat in his own state, which is a normally very blue state, could end up being, so far tonight, the single most costly thing that democrats have endured when it comes to the house. they are over performing in so many other places. but now the results we are seeing in new york. look at this, look how close this one is. pat ryan, who won the special election this summer, a 686 vote margin. there's an opportunity for -- with that underscores is,

although seats out west in california we talked about, the democrats -- there's a half a dozen republican seats that democrats think they could have a shot. that there is a situation, potentially, after new york, where they might have to run a table in those california seats. >> steve, i have got exactly 60 seconds before i have to take another break. in that time, can you tell me about the kansas governor's race? >> yeah, we haven't even -- >> a democratic incumbent governor. >> yeah, and look at this, this margin, with 88% of the vote counted here, now let's take a look. we have the remaining vote. you can see a lot of vote still to come in johnson county. johnson county has a quarter of the vote in the entire state here. this is overland park, this is bedroom community of kansas city and the kansas side. and also, right next door, there are some core democratic areas here. still, shawnee county, where topeka is -- kelly is doing very well.

there's still a lot of vote to come in those areas. there's a scattered opportunity for schmidt, the small, rural republican counties, it can add up. but there are still some big places here we are kelley can gain votes. here again, statewide, she leads by just under 20,000 votes, maybe 90%. and >> steve, thank, you we will take a quick break. we will -- are election night coverage continues here on msnbc. n msnbc. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ it helps prevent asthma attacks, improve breathing, and lower use of oral steroids. fasenra is not a rescue medication

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