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>> good evening, depending on where you are in the country, and good morning to you, msnbc's live coverage of election night continues. let's go back to house minority leader kevin mccarthy, who is speaking now. >> strong. where you can fill up your tank,

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>> house minority leader kevin mccarthy delivering a speech in d.c.. the numbers for whether or not the republicans will, in fact, as many pollsters it's expected, control the house, are not clear right now. you can see right now on the right the nbc projection. at the moment it projects the gop with 218 seats and the democrats with 217 seats -- you do things these days. it is plus or minus 13 seats. so, i can understand if you are not sure who is actually going to control the house. kevin mccarthy delivering remarks there that indicated that republicans will take control in that he will be the speaker. but that is far from being decided, something i think a lot of people decided would be decided at this point in the evening. good evening, and thanks for continuing to watch us here on msnbc. our continuing live coverage of the 2022 elections. it is 2 am in the east. i'm here with my msnbc colleagues, jonathan capehart,

alicia menendez and ayman mohyeldin. what you can see on the screen is the ever-present steve kornacki, who is never far from us. he is here as well. many races here -- steve, many races are still pending. a lot of results are still coming in. control of congress is still very much up in the air. so far, tonight nbc news decision desk is projecting that republicans will have 219 seats in the house of representatives next year. and as i said, that projection includes a margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats. we are going to get steve to explain what that means very shortly. 218 seats, by the way, are what are needed to control the house. so, if that projection stands, republicans would have the slimmest of majorities. but without essentially means right now is that both parties still have a fair chance of being in control next term. and what it means is that steve and ayman and alicia menendez and jonathan and i stand no chance of getting out here

early tonight. >> [laughs] >> it's largely a similar story with the senate. nbc news has just projected a key victory for -- democrat john fetterman is now projected to have defeated mehmet oz to take over the seat left over and by the republican pat toomey, who opted not to run for reelection. here's what john fetterman said just moments ago. >> we held the line. i never expected that we were going to turn these red counties blue. but we did what we needed to do. and we had that conversation across every one of those counties. and tonight, that is why i will be the next u.s. senator from pennsylvania. [applause] >> all right, coming into tonight the, senate was evenly split at 50/50. at this hour still looks like it's going to be close. right now democrats have 48

seats, republicans have 47 with five races still left to be called, including the hotly contested race in arizona. that is still too early to call. but the democrat incumbent, mark kelly, has 57.2% of the vote. however, only 50 poor 54% of the vote is in now. it's coming in really slowly. we are going to talk to steve kornacki about why this that is the case, why this hour we only have 54% of the vote in arizona. senate race and wisconsin is still too close to. paul whelan johnson, the republican incumbent, and remarkable election denier, up by only 1.6 points, and 88 -- i'm looking at it. now that's 93% of the vote that's now in wisconsin. and we are still watching that one. we might not find out the final configuration of the senate until december. because if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in georgia, that race goes to a runoff between the two top candidates. that race is also still too close to call. but a runoff between democratic

senator raphael warnock of his republican challenger herschel walker is looking possible right now. 96% of the voters in their. warnock has taken the lead. but no one has got 50%. there's also been some historic ballot measures tonight, particularly regarding the issue of abortion, which has been the biggest motivating factors for voters this year, especially for democrats. the decision desk as were projected to california, michigan and vermont will become the first states to and shrine abortion rights into their state constitutions. all right, i'm here with my team. i have got ayman, and alicia menendez, and jonathan. it's fun being back with you. -- as we closed out on sunday night, jonathan, you made the point that there are polls and there are people. and in the end, none of us are smart enough to know what people do. and people in america tonight have demonstrated their nuance. >> right. i said we needed to be humble. we all -- those of us on this desk, those armchair pundits at home, need

to show some humility. because the people will speak. and what we are finding out, to your point, ali velshi, the american people are nuance. they are not two dimensional. i remember folks saying, abortion is crested and no one cares. we are seeing tonight that that's not true. that abortion was a big issue for people. young people came out and voted, when we have grown so used to discounting young voters. and they showed up in big numbers. i cannot wait to see where the rest of that -- i was going to, say the night goes -- the morning goes. because it is fascinating to see what the american people are saying. and i have to say this. i remember waking up the morning of election day 2016 in the mood in the airways of foreboding, for me. something told me it was not going to be a good night, from my point of view. this morning i woke up knowing all of the stuff that we thought was going to happen. and still, i thought, it's election day. this is fine. this is good. hearing from the american

people tonight, my faith in the american people to be able to see what was happening and then to make their voices heard in a way that is made impossible for us to be sitting here, going, wait, what just happened? it's fantastic. the >> more here from the american people, the more i want to hear, and the more questions i have. i feel like we came into this election understanding the basic fundamentals. this was a midterm after the presidents first election. we know these races ordinarily -- there was the summer of action on the part of democrats. i will tell, you i've been out there -- i was in arizona, i was in nevada. nobody talked to me about i.r.a. by name. nobody talk to me about the chips act. but soon debt relief, that definitely broke through. there was definitely the sense of, who has my back? who cares? that language that democrats were using in their ads, was being repeated back to me in parking lots. and so i think the big question

coming out of this is, was it a mix of these factors that determine this vote? or was there one central thing that pushed the democrats through? >> i was going to say, i think there's a few early through lines we can look at. as you said, the american people are nuanced. but they can also hold multiple views of different things at the same time. that means they can understand inflation and economic anxiety, but at the same time as colleagues have been pointing out, abortion is still front and center for them. they care about personal rights, individual rights, government overreach. they care about those things. and they are able to parse the politics from their reality, if that makes sense. they're able to actually say, what is it that affects me and i'm not going to just get whipped into the frenzy by the political leaders of one party over the other. i think another big conversation that is going to emerge from this evening, this morning, and then the next couple of days, it's a of the republican party. >> absolutely. >> you now have, when you look at the victories of ron

desantis and the losses of the trump candidates, like mehmet oz and mastriano, we will see what happens with kari lake and what happens elsewhere -- but if you look at some of these early indicators, that is a reckoning that now needs to happen within the republican party. >> so let's talk about that. because there are a lot of interesting races for a lot of interesting reasons. but pennsylvania, michigan and arizona have been where the election deniers have gone, where the election deniers have gone to really plant their flag in michigan. gretchen whitmer has prevailed. in pennsylvania, josh shapiro prevailed by a lot. that was not a close race. we again don't have the -- >> kathy hochul. >> that's right. -- but those ones were the ones i was looking at the most closely, just to say, do the extreme of the extremist prevail tonight or not? in a number of the mostly contested secretary of state races in this country, the

election deniers have lost in most cases. so, there is some undercurrent here that republicans were going all in for that has not paid off tonight. >> and america is still a pro democracy country. you still have a -- >> at least at this hour of the night -- >> at this hour of the night, you have a -- republican base for americans generally believe in the fundamental rights of our democracy and to accept the outcome of an election. >> -- chips or about ira. they also may not talk about this in terms of a democracy in peril. >> right. >> but they will say, wow, that candidate seems really far out -- >> -- it is the, you just seem like you are on your way out there. all right, he is here. he is trying to ignore us. he is trying to -- >> we gave him a ten minute break. >> steve kornacki never actually leaves. it's kind of weird, because

they trained me on how to use that thing in case steve kornacki ever leaves. but steve kornacki never leaves. -- tell me what you are seeing. >> i guess a place is start here is nevada, where some more voters coming in the last few minutes. this is clark county. this is like 70% of the state here. we came in with the same day vote in clark county, which was advantageous to adam laxalt, the republican. so, what you see here, that was the clark county number. he has cut the gap to single digits there. he had initially trailed by more than ten points. and what that has done as well is it has cut the state wide gap here. catherine cortez masto, the incumbent, 50.9%, adam laxalt, her republican challenger, is about four and a half points behind her. also, a notably -- a bit of a split here between the senate race and the governor's race. sisolak, he's leading, his margin, though, only two and a half point statewide. i think we might have washoe

county -- these two counties, reno and clark, they represent the vast majority of the state here. again, cortez masto getting in -- percent of that early mail-in vote. in the governor's race, you can see sisolak, again, not quite as much here. the significant of this race here, for the significance of the control of the senate, we have had one change of party control in the senate tonight, that is pennsylvania. -- d plus one, so just looking at the senate control matt right now, or member, we came into the night 50/50. and 50/50 is good enough for democrats to control the senate with kamala harris breaking the tie. , so what is left for republicans at this point? at this point what that means is, not only do they need to find a win in the democratic seat to offset the gain that the democrats made in pennsylvania. they need a second win somewhere else to get to 51 and get control of the senate. so, where could they get it? let's just go through them

quickly and i will show you where they stand. in wisconsin, right now, ron johnson is holding on to a 40,000 vote lead. there are still some republican areas with some votes left. i think of the states i just showed you on the map, republicans may feel best about where wisconsin stands right now. if johnson wins, it just means republicans hold the seat. if johnson loses somehow, in that final batch of votes there, that we finally see in wisconsin, that is just devastating to republicans. because then that would be a loss of two republican house seats. so, they need johnson to hang on there. and then that would bring into georgia to arizona and nevada, and essentially, republicans would need to win two of those three or democrats would have retain control of the senate. so, where did those stand in georgia? we are inching closer to 100% of the vote here. now it's up to 96. and look at this. the gap between herschel walker and raphael warnock continues to hover i just over 10,000 votes with, critically, that libertarian candidate, chase oliver, getting 2%. beneither candidate, nor walker

are at 50%. and if no one goes above 50%, they have a runoff election on december 6th. that looms as a very real possibility in georgia. then you take a look at their arizonian. again, we get big batches of early vote vote that was dropped off to right before the weekend in maricopa county, in kemah county, and we are starting to get the same day vote. you see the democrats jump to a big lead with those initial batches of early vote. now the question is, the same day voting, it's going to be reported out, apparently, hourly, from maricopa overnight. you want to see, are republicans able to make this competitive with that same day vote? but we are not going to get an answer, i think, in arizona, for a little while. and it's true in nevada as well. the counted can take days and both of those states. but basically, republicans are in a position where they need johnson to hang on in wisconsin. and then they need to have these three. and there is the possibility that december 6th runoff in

georgia. and so if you have a scenario where johnson hung on, where republicans won nevada, and where georgia went to a runoff, then we would be in a situation where senate control would come down to the georgia runoff, and we would have no answered into the second stretch. >> imagine that. waiting for georgia. alaska, you are not worried about. that's not a thing that is going to change control of the senate? >> the issue is, it's two republicans. you are starting to see the numbers come in. there and kelly tshibaka and lisa murkowski -- you can see right away that it's two republicans gobbling up almost 90%. >> let me ask you about wisconsin. we are still waiting on that. we have a lot of county in wisconsin. but is milwaukee all in? >> it's not all in, no. you can see about 80%. what we got from milwaukee, though, was usually at the very end of the night or close to the absentee, the mail vote, it comes in. and then we have got that a little while ago. and if barnes win, it's

something on the order of 55,000 to 7000, something like that, to make a huge chunk of votes from. that and you see, some of these other counties there, the core republican counties right outside milwaukee, there's also a vote to come. there's a lot of pockets there where johnson can also gained votes here, and potentially offset what barnes gets out of milwaukee. barnes -- this is not over yet, this has not been called -- but johnson can point to some things here that are promising for him. again, this is a state where the governor's race has already been called for the democrat, and tony evers has already been reelected. so you, see johnson outperforming the republican gubernatorial candidate by about three points. >> steve, thank you. i think the important part here for steve is that there's still a lot of importance of that still to happen tonight, particularly for arizona, which is moving very slowly. -- over the course of about two hours. so, it is moving slowly, but we will probably get updates about that over the course of the night and learn more about potential senate control as it leads to senate control.

stay with us. we are back after a quick break. break. ♪♪ allergies don't have to be scary. (screaming) defeat allergy headaches fast with new flonase headache and allergy relief! two pills relieve allergy headache pain? and the congestion that causes it! flonase headache and allergy relief. psst! psst! all good! >> joining us now, rick hassan

is professor of law and political science at the ucla

school of law, the director of safeguarding democracy project and an msnbc election law analyst. thank you for being here. we have all been speaking about the fate of democracy as we know it ahead of this election. we are do you see democracy going after tonight? >> the good news is that, in at least some places, election deniers did not get elected to office. that's one of the things i was really worried about is -- doug mastriano, who is running to be governor of pennsylvania. he lost his election, he would have had the power to appoint a secretary of state. he had said that he would not have certified the presidential election in 2020 for joe biden. so, that's one risk that has disappeared. we also had a number of trumpist candidates conceding their elections. that is something that is good news. it's a low bar. but it's good news. still waiting to see what happens in arizona. i think that's grand zero for all of this. it's too early to know how

things are going to play out there. and someone of kari lake, if she loses the governor's election, if she's actually going to concede her election. >> and you have written about the way election and i'll is taking hold of a certain segment of republican voters. there's a good chance that some of the election deniers we have seen on ballots nationwide win. explain what that could mean for the future of elections. >> so, people who are going to be running in elections, to 2020 election was stolen -- believe this, in which case they are gullible and they probably should not be running elections, or they're lying, in which case it is hard to trust them. and i think, even if some of these election deniers run their elections as fairly as possible, there is going to be new doubts on the left win these election deniers are going to run out election results. i'm worried we are going to get into a cycle where even more people are going to lose faith in our process. you cannot have a democracy unless people believe that we

have free and fair elections and the results announce actually reflect the will of the people. >> and in addition -- hey, it's alicia menendez -- in addition to election deniers, there are also election deniers, conspiracy theorists, some of which exist on the far-right fringes of the internet. -- it really undermines faith in the entire process. and i wonder, even though there are people who were not elected tonight, that is still baked, right? that is still in the ether. how do you undo that piece, that basic distrust? >> right. it is really a problem. getting people trust back in this era, with misinformation and disinformation spreading so easily, not just on social media, but on certain news networks and the whole network of people who are making money by spreading election lies and feeding people lies to make them feel better about election losses -- that is not going to go away. and so really, what you need to

do, is find a coalition of reasonable people from the left and the right to agree in principles of free and fair elections. i do have some hope of seeing some of the results tonight that the american people are going to reject the most extreme candidates and support those who want to continue american democracy. >> i like that. coalition of reasonable people. rick hassan, thank you very much for being here. and stay with us. more continuing election coverage is next. coverage is next

>> all right, we may not find out the final configuration of the senate until december because, as steve was just explaining, the georgia senate race, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in georgia, that race will go to a runoff between the top two candidates. and that races still too close to call but a runoff between democratic senator raphael warnock and his republican challenger herschel walker is looking possible at the moment. the other big race in georgia tonight, the gubernatorial race, republican incumbent brian kemp once again beating stacey abrams. let's go live to -- alison barber and blaine alexander are standing by. alison, and this late in the night, you are at the herschel walker campaign. tell us a bit about what you are seeing. and how they are feeling as these results roll in. >> hey, ayman.

as you said, we have not called this race. but the chief operating officer for georgia secretary of state just tweeted, while county officials are still doing the detailed work on counting the votes, we feel it is safe to say there will be a runoff for the u.s. senate here in georgia slated for december 6th. and that is a tweet from gabe sterling. as for the candidates, the mood, both walker and warnock delivered similar messages to supporters tonight, saying this is going to be a very long night. but we feel good. the secretary of state's office here, they say there is still about 33,000 early votes outstanding that have not yet been counted in columbia county. that is a county that donald trump won back in 2020 with 62% of the vote. biden had 36% there. walker's campaign, having conversations with them -- they are pointing to that county, those outstanding ballots, as a positive sign for their candidate. when i last spoke to them, they were confident, adamant, that they think they can eke out a win.

at the same, time warnock's campaign is also telling us they feel really good. a source close to warnock's campaign told me that they always knew it would come down to the wire. but securing a runoff in this environment with squeaking out an outright win would be big either way. right now, walker and warnock are a little under 14,000 votes between the two of them. you said it off the top. steve has said it multiple times tonight. but the magic number here is really 50.01% if no candidate hits that threshold it goes to a runoff in december. and right now the numbers that we are seeing, what we are hearing from the secretary of state, it looks like we will not have a winner in this anytime soon. >> ellison, stay with us, we are going to cross over to blaine alexander, outside of the stacey abrams headquarters. -- blaine, a very different night -- a lot of momentum going in behind her in this race. it just did not pan out. how are they taking the loss? how are they explaining the

loss at this moment? >> you know, ayman, i think one of the most striking things to look at here with this outcome is the margin. as you said, this was a re-. max rematch. -- back then it was less than two percentage points. tonight she lost more more than eight percentage points, certainly a much larger margin of victory for brian kemp. haven't covered politics here in georgia, i think there are a number of reasons that people will point to for that. brian kemp was a trump endorsed candidate. he was someone who ran brandishing a shotgun and other things. -- this time around, likely alienated some voters who thought he was too far to the right. he strategy this time around was to really focus on his record, point to his record of the last four years of governing and hope to win over some perhaps moderate republicans who did not vote for him last time around. that was something that --

victory. and other thing, though, is of course we look back to 2020, that's where -- and that's also been a lot of people looked at and said, okay, this could have been makings for a cc abrams victory. this is a very different territory now than we were back in 2020. so, it made the comment anyway that democrats rally behind getting trump around out of office. that's no longer the case in the something that likely hurts aca rooms in the. and here's some of what she had to say followed by brian kemp's victory speech. >> let me begin by offering congratulations to governor brian kemp. our state has experienced one soul crushing crisis after another over the past few years. but even during these trying times, the fighting spirit of georgia has prevailed. >> the media, the national democrats, those billionaire donors, the left wing activists, joe biden, barack obama, oprah,

and stacey abrams threw everything they had at us for the second time in a row. but you know what we did, y'all? we kept -- and then tonight. we kept shopping it. tonight, we stopped stacey and saved georgia. >> and ayman, a quick note about the mood inside the room at stacey abrams campaign headquarters. -- fiery speech, essentially saying that we might not like the result tonight, but there's always another chapter. ayman? >> all right, nbc's blayne alexander and ellison barber tonight, thank you. -- >> a resident georgian -- >> right, former, former. i think it's a fascinating case,

when you look at the dynamics of what's playing out tonight, brian kemp handily defeated stacey abrams in every match that many people i, think, thought was going to be much closer. -- you want to talk about candidate quality, i don't think of all the candidates that have run in this election cycle, herschel walker is -- when mcconnell's -- >> herschel walker is the -- >> poster child of that quality. >> and he tripped up several times after mcconnell -- >> tripped up? yeah, he tripped up. but all these children came from out of everywhere. then, other stories of demanding that girlfriends have abortions. i guess, to candidate quality, the idea has always been, to me, galling, that this race between herschel walker and reverend senator raphael warnock was even close. >> and here we are, possibly going into a runoff.

>> possibly going into a runoff, which, i don't know if we can then have the discussion about, what does that mean, especially that third party guy, who was siphoned off so many votes -- >> oliver -- >> decisive win -- >> except, alicia, the runoff becomes a national election. -- once again in 2020. this could be the deciding factor in who controls -- >> a lot of it comes down to getting people re-excited, saying, -- i know -- muscle memory, as do those organizers and -- i need to say, though, stacey abrams has proven herself to be a transformational political character. that does not change with the electoral loss. i think it would also be a mistake -- a lot of people will look at the state and they will say, not only did stacey abrams lose, but her playbook lost. her argument that you need to

invest over a period of time and go into communities that have ordinarily been neglected and then put a big longitudinal investment there, that lesson needs to stick. there is still an argument for what she has been doing. >> let's also remember that, yes, she was a candidate for governor, but she also formed an organization. she's not just a candidate. -- from the ground up, and we are going to see that apparatus at play if, in the, georgia goes to a runoff. >> 100%. candidates come and go. that infrastructure, so long -- yeah, it's forever. >> -- people said that she single-handedly delivered the two senate seats in 2020, jon ossoff and raphael warnock, precisely because of what you just said there. -- able to get across the finish line if they needed it. -- runoff on december 6th, i believe it is. >> december 6th. >> --

it's important to understand this, because we are going to be talking about georgia, quite possibly, for a long period of time. we have 96% of the vote in their. and we call it too close to call. at some juncture, this moves from being too close to call to, it's a runoff. the secretary of state, brad raffensperger, by the, way has been reelected there. this will be decided to be a runoff if no one gets to 49, the 50%. right now it is not clear that that will happen tonight or tomorrow night. it may not happen, in other words, we might go to a runoff. take a look at the map of georgia and how this has lived there. ayman, you have live, there i have lived there. what has evolved there is that you've got certain centers around which democrats win and then the rest of the state, including where marjorie taylor greene runs, for instance, where sometimes a democratic candidate -- did actually run against her. but you have got a nine counties around atlanta, which are decisive. voter turnout matters here. it's around savannah, around augusta, around columbus. and then some other places --

this is how georgia gets decided. we are do people come out to vote? and that, to alicia's point, about stacey abrams, it's really a lot about stacey abrams. she orchestrated. she and other organizers in georgia, who remained the example for america in terms of organizing are the people who have figured out, all right, we have got people in here who are going to vote democratic. how do we get them to register? how do we overcome hurdles to registration? how do we get them to vote on election day. you look at the abortion questions that have been on the ballot, starting in kansas in the summer. but tonight in michigan, and kentucky, it's so close. i don't know if we have called that yet but there is a vote to ban abortion in the constitution. that is not succeeding or was not succeeding as of an hour. ago we have gotten abortion question in california. we have a few others on the ballot. these are organizational politics. stacey abrams on saturday, when i talk to her, said this isn't just about the polling. it's about who comes out to vote and whether they can vote.

so, stacey abrams lost her election, the reverend senator raphael warnock has not won his election tonight and may have to face a runoff. but what you have got here is not just demographics. but it's the idea that in georgia, which, to me, still remains ground zero for this effort to say, your vote matters, you can change the history of what happens, but you have got to get out there and vote -- and i suspect that tonight, it doesn't get results tonight or tomorrow night or whatever the case is, and we may still be looking at the balance of power in the united states senate until december when that runoff takes place. but when it is useful to, remember when you look at maps of georgia and pennsylvania, and even arizona, that it is the centers of population, how they have a merge and how people go out to actually cast their ballots and how organizers depend on that. >> ali velshi, think you very much. stick around, we will squeeze in a quick break and pick it up right on the other side. don't go anywhere. nywhere.

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>> nearly 35 million -- eligible to vote in elections this year. that is according to pew research, making them the second largest ethnic group of eligible voters.

tonight, the impact of the latino voter has been felt across the key states of florida and texas and in some unexpected ways. joining me now is cristobal alex, president of the -- victory project and former senior adviser to the joe biden campaign and msnbc analyst. and maria teresa kumar, president of voto latino. cristobal, i want to start with you. and all the attention that was lavished on the rio grande valley, those three districts in to texas -- the one that was drawn for a republican went to a -- were held by democrats. your thoughts on what happened there? >> exactly right. what we saw across the board tonight is that there was no red wave. and that's especially true when it comes to latinos. and if you look at the rio grande valley, people had weird off those congressional seats sometime ago and that's why we wait until election day to see

what happens. of course you have to latino democrats hold their seats. of course, the 15 district was lost because of redistricting. but a big night for democrats in the valley. and it really pushes back against this misperception that latinos are somehow trending very aggressively to republicans. that's simply not true. >> maria teresa kumar, part of the reason we have this conversation around whether republicans are making inroads with latinos is what is happening in florida. i want your thoughts about what we saw out of florida, understanding that the narrative for the night will not be written until we see what happens in arizona and we see what happens in nevada. >> alicia, we've had this conversation so many times. florida is an outlier, not only for the democrats in the latino community, but quite frankly as a whole. and chris christie was the gubernatorial candidate and they -- used to be a republican, let's remind each other of that. when you are looking at where

does the latino vote move with the trend, where the tea leaves, it is a place like texas, it is a place like georgia, pennsylvania and arizona and nevada. i say this because this the fun fact about florida is that young latino voters will never eclipse older latino voters in florida. you know where they already eclipse older latino voters? in texas, in georgia, in pennsylvania, in nevada, in arizona, in colorado. and that is why voto latino -- states for the last 15 years. because in 2004, latino is the second largest demographic, but didn't become a voting age in 2015. what that means is we need to cultivate this audience all the time and talked to them. we started the segment saying that 34 million latinos were eligible to vote this election. that's true. what our biggest challenge in the latino communities that only 16 million of us are registered. we have a voter registration deficit. that's because we have almost 1

million latino youth turning 18 every single year. greg abbott knows this. that's why he one of the reasons he created so many voting restrictions -- if you lived in a dorm, for example, you could not register to vote there. voto latino brought in a lawsuit. it's still on the course. because he recognizes -- young latino vote. and the only thing -- heavily gerrymander district was a latino able to -- >> cristóbal alex, i want to underscore something i already said, which is, we still need to see what happens in arizona, we still need to see what happens in nevada, that's why you will have ali velshi at the ford all night giving us those numbers. but give us the information that we have. if you are leader in the democratic party, what is the conversation -- about how latino voters performed in this election. >> and --

exactly right. >> waiting to see what happens in nevada and arizona and other places, where latinos really do hold a future in their hands. in a place like nevada, you really need about two thirds of the nevada vote to win there. now we are on track, advising the party, a candidate and others. i would say, great work getting to where we are right now. democrats are in the fight right now, simply, i think, in a lot of these places, simply because of latino voters and other important parts of what i call the biden coalition. young voters included, women voters, african american voters, asian voters, especially in places like las vegas. but we have got to wait and see how these turnout. the last piece of this i will say is, we have got some incredible new blood coming in in the democratic -- and i think what it tells us is that the future really is

latino. but it is such a -- while they lean democratic and they believe in democratic principles, you really have to continuously try to persuade latino voters, because they are so young and fast growing, we've got to continue to engage them. so, the democratic party, like the republican party, as we continue to invest. and most importantly, i think, the biden administration has done a great job of this, i think, the most favorable -- continue to push on policies and lean on the policies that the teen is care most about. >> -- there's also some big firsts. maxwell frost, delhi ana ramirez, the first latino elected from the midwest. it's an interesting moment. >> -- with maxwell frost, he's the first gen z year and latino, openly gay, coming out of florida. -- not completely. you also see -- you are going to have the largest latino outreach we have

ever seen in our nation this week. those are great once. but back to nevada and arizona, we are seeing latinos performing closer to 2018 level, with the exception of young which you know voters. and that should be of concern only because the way most people go out and -- latino voters are hypertensive to voters. -- which seniors are disproportionately young in arizona and nevada. -- it's going to be grassroots organizations doing terrific work on the ground. -- >> cristóbal alex, maria teresa kumar, think you both. you all know i i have been talking about this nonstop. -- again, we do not have all the information we need, because we are waiting for nevada, because we are waiting for arizona. >> we are going to be waiting for a while, by the way. -- i've been reading stuff a maricopa county. they are going to be counting for a while. i will remind people of this. we are going to get keep

getting more information from arizona every hour. -- we have 55% of the vote in now. and the deniers are not winning right now, which is incredible. -- they have run powerful campaigns. i will give it to them. it is actually, i think, more fun to be an election denier and an election denier liar than a reasonable human. because it's more fun. you can say more interesting things. -- at the moment, mark kelly's lead in that race is substantial. steve kornacki was saying, the republicans need to gains now -- at the beginning of the night they only needed one game. but they only needed one seat. we are not sure what is going to happen in georgia. that could be a democratic loss if raphael warnock does not win it in the runoff. so, their hopes are pinned now with the remarkable herschel walker as a candidate. -- they did not get it in pennsylvania, with john

fetterman now -- wisconsin continues to be a close race, that's undecided. but that's already ron johnson. he's a republican. this is the only possible map for victory for the control of the senate. they have to get two of those three places. georgia, arizona, and nevada. we are not likely to get georgia tonight. here is what is happening in wisconsin. 93% of the vote is in. it's very close. 37,542. however, most of the votes we're mandela barnes has performed the strongest or is likely to have come in. so we are still waiting -- you never know what can happen right there. but it won't matter in terms of control of the senate. >> i had a wisconsin democratic official who reminded me that the fact that we are still talking about this senate race -- they called it a staggering achievement in and of itself. >> correct. but ron johnson, if you recall, when he was elected, was what

you called a mainstream republican. >> yeah, and he took that hard turn. down to election denialism, though. >> very hard turn. >> i think it's interesting as well. this is one of the things we were talking about as well -- and was chris hayes talking about it earlier. -- you had the governor of wisconsin, obviously -- >> -- >> staying firmly in democratic hands. we still don't know. but possibly, the senate saying in -- we see that again in a place like georgia. obviously, pennsylvania, you had the defeat at the hands of josh shapiro -- >> but even they, or that was an interesting race. because josh shapiro defeated mastriano by so many votes. and the fetterman oz race was the closer. >> let me give you one more tip about wisconsin, though, which i thought was interesting. it always swings against the presidents party 28 at the last 52 races. so, what evs has pulled off their, it's pretty anomalous.

>> i want to point out one of the thing about wisconsin and the closing message -- n they referenced it on sunday night which to have hands in. it, >> senator johnson's closing blessed was decidedly racist. and rachel, against lieutenant governor mandela barnes who obviously is african american, and the idea that johnson ran on that closing argument and that race is still as close as it is says to me, that the people of wisconsin saw through what ron johnson was doing and did not allow racism and fear dictate how they were going to about. if racism still had the power in a hold over the electorate that it has had in the past, i'm not saying racism is over or anything like that -- don't get me wrong, but if it had the same power as it had in the past, we would be talking about ron johnson has held onto his seat.

>> right. >> and i thought we were talking about. now >> especially since it was a steady drumbeat of that in this campaign -- >> for weeks if not months from senator johnson. >> they decide to make that closing argument, and you know closing arguments work -- you look at all the options you got and you say what's the stickiest thing. if that is all they had, right? they didn't have another message to pivot to, all they had is that one. >> i can't say, i go back to talking about pennsylvania all i can because i've been there all the time there. alison smith, a reporter which was what would've been pennsylvania outcome, now in play, now winning all battles all three of the swing house seats and taking control of the state house for the first time in more than a decade. and of course, our friend michael cohen retweeted that and said, democrats need to send a christmas card to dog mass janno. [laughs] so in pennsylvania, that's exceeded! in wisconsin, hasn't associated, right? ron johnson of becoming an unusual character hasn't fully settled in, what we are waiting

to see as whether it works in arizona. >> i think wisconsin was interesting is the incumbency factor. i think that's not -- something >> i think -- >> oregon is an incumbent. he's a known name in wisconsin. there, is to report, whether or not he made that hard turn down election diana lizza where people are still giving the benefit of the doubt saying hey, that's not the ron johnson that we, know you are talking like that, maybe just to rise a few folks in washington and then in mar-a-lago, but we know who you were. >> mastriano -- mehmet oz was not even out in [inaudible] >> years -- or >> carolina's an own personality as a journalist but not as a politician. >> exactly, so we will see how that lands with the voters and those states whether or not they are able -- revamping about how they can differentiate and give that nuanced on certain issues. we'll see if they can also give as a candidate when it comes to this issue of election denialism and being pro trump or not. >> what a long night for some of, you but we are just getting

started here! [inaudible] [laughs] coming >> up congresswoman maxine waters, the incoming secretary of state adrian fontes from arizona. who is still awaiting election results in his own race, former illinois congressman joe walsh and many others -- another hour of our special 2022 midterm coverage begins right now! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome back to our continuing coverage of the midterm elections, i'm ali velshi, it is 3:00 here in new york, it is now tomorrow, even in california. the polls may be close but counting is still in full swing!

here's where we stand at this hour: while nbc news cannot protect -- project the control of the house at this, moment and that is a wild thing to say, just let me remind you! three in the morning, we are not able to project who will control the house of representatives in -- in an election where people thought the most obvious thing in the world is that at this point, at least we know that much that republicans are in control. our decision desk has released an estimate. now this one is tricky -- it appears that the red wave might have been more like a red a splash. republicans are poised to win 219 seats. you need 218 to control the chamber. however, like everything else with the projection, there is no margin of error and our margin of error is now plus or minus ten seats. okay? so just keep that in mind, to 16 for the democrats, to 19 for the republicans, that is a projection, plus or minus ten, which means anybody could actually win it at this point! in the senate still up for grabs, right now democrats

control 48 states, that is what they have won tonight compared to 47 for the republicans. there are still five races to be caught, however, we can call one key senate race that we've had our eye on in this cycle. nbc news can project that the democrat john fetterman, winner of the pennsylvania senate race, beating out the republican, mehmet oz, bringing an end to one of the most contentious and expensive campaigns in the cycle, in the pennsylvania race for governor. nbc news projects that democrat josh shapiro, attorney general of that state, handily beating out the republican doug mastriano from who we could spend an hour talking -- [laughs] >> over in georgia, raphael warnock and his republican opponent herschel walker are neck and neck! nbc news calling this race too close to call, 96%, and however, georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote. someone's got to get more than

50%, which makes neither warnock nor walker win more than 50%, we are likely heading for a runoff. i believe that's december six! here is the reverend -- here's the reverend warnock just a short time ago: >> i maybe a little tire for now. [laughs] but whether it's later tonight, or tomorrow, or four weeks from now, we will hear from the people of georgia! >> and remember, last time right? when it was a runoff in georgia, how that particularly because it was about control of the senate which maybe again that's of course becomes like a national election, everyone is all about georgia. michigan, the race for governor, democratic incumbent gretchen whitmer is the projected winner over the election denier -- i'll just be polite for a moment, tutor dixon. and here are the results of an important ballot proposal in michigan, a majority of michiganders have voted to approve a ballot proposal that

will amend the state constitution to codify abortion rights. both vermont and california have passed similar measures as well tonight. and there are eyes on kentucky, look at this one! this one is remarkably interesting! an amendment to remove the right to abortion it's on the ballot. the same idea -- it would in shrine in the state constitution. so it's the opposite. republicans are projected to win in both races and the state but the amendment is trailing in that support, again, too close to call on this one. 82% in right now, but it's 51 to 49. there are no other races in kentucky tonight that are 50 1:49. >> right, kentucky! kentucky! a reliably conservative state. very interesting -- >> it reminds me of something that i heard after we sort of watched this out of kansas which is -- again people talk about this differently defeat depending on where you are. and in the case of kansas, it really was this rejection of government overreach. >> right, don't take my right

away! >> yes, yes there's no need for us to codify the lack of a right in a constitution. you know? >> that's an important distinction -- it's not the embrace of abortion rights -- for >> some it may have been, but not for the totality, and they put together an interesting coalition. kansas is also -- in a little bit different. there is a progressive swab, a progressive history in kansas that there might not be in some of these other states, but still the fact that people came, they voted for a republican, and they still stated at don't want you messing with this fundamental rights -- >> right, which may be a similar impulse, different, day but it may be a similar impulse. kentucky saying i'm not sure if i want to codify the absence of that right or the taking away of rights. so interesting, because jonathan you and i were to get on sunday morning when our new polling came out indicating that abortion is not up there -- it may be an individual's number one issue, but it's not up there in the ranking of issues for people. but this is the nuance and texture that we've been talking about, right? people can say i like this, but don't take away these rights. >> well it's cooler after with

what we see tonight whether it is through the candidates who supported the issue of abortion rights and reproduction rights, or whether it was a single ballot measure like we are when you are talking about here and kentucky. it was on the minds of people. but people and the voters are more nuance and they say that what matters to them in the urgent need was perhaps inflation and the economic anxiety. but nonetheless, abortion was a motivating factor. and how do we know that? not just because of these ballot measures have passed in the handful of states, but also because the participation and the turnout of young people, particularly women, and again it was a point that was made earlier -- you cannot have something that fundamentally impacts half of our population and that not be a motivating factor and going to the poll. and isabella pox. it may not be the sole issue, it may not be the most important issue, but it was an issue. and i think that was the outlier in how this has been playing out over the past couple of hours. >> and that's what i keep going back to the interview that i did with joshua pirro a couple

weeks ago when i asked him -- which issue are you hearing about from on the campaign trail? and is it abortion? it is a threat to democracy? he said we can walk and chew gum at the same time. and i think we make a mistake when we think that people only focus on one thing to the detriment of something else, and people were saying -- about look abortion is way down here. people don't care about it. what we are learning tonight is, no, no, no people do care about it and when they have the option to actually say something about it, they both in the affirmative. meaning that the right should be codified or this right should not be taken away, or maybe in the case of kentucky, government shouldn't even be here, so leave it alone. >> it just strikes me when the four of us were together on sunday night, doing our warm-up routine, we're having our conversation about what the republican legislative agenda could look like sure they take control of the house. and i wonder now, if you are republicans and you are watching these results pour in -- >> you gotta read the. room >> you gotta read the --

you not based on that kevin mccarthy space that he was giving -- that he was getting the room -- >> he was not reading the. room [laughs] >> when you think lindsey graham wanted to pass a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, you have to -- to your point, if you are republican leader you have to ask yourself why. unless you are doing this for purely a moral outrage that is something that you believe in and that's motivating you, but you have nothing to gain by trying to push a band that has not been rejected in a handful of states in the candidate who ran on these extreme positions on reproductive rights have been categorically rejected and some of the state. it is a losing cause for you. the idea that you would pick it up because you wouldn't want to take an issue in which 60% of your face that is supportive of reproductive rights and try to make it a national issue. it's just not -- it's not good politics and americans have already rejected that based on what we're saying tonight. >> especially when you look at groups of swing voters, right? >> yeah. your core constituency is always gonna be with, you but

every election you are going to be persuaded over parts of what this has demonstrated, it's that that group is saying -- you are going to first. steve kornacki, look a little different over there! >> i changed my pants, i just want a [laughs] outside couple things -- here this is pennsylvania, by the, way the senate pick, up right? this is why the democrats have an extra seat now, and the republicans need to gain to in order to gain control of senate. this is the governor's race: 90%, joshua pirro cleaning the floor with doug mastriano. 55.3 to 42.8, okay that one isn't even close. take a look -- this is what else telling about georgia, a little while, ago population centers where democrats tend to do well in pennsylvania. this area, there's pittsburgh, that's philadelphia, allentown, scranton, harrisburg, about the capitol, all right? he's a generally where it goes. i'm going to switch this map right now over to the senate, the senate race, you only see a couple of counties here that went for josh shapiro that

didn't go for john fetterman. we've got 93% of the race in here, this is now call for john fetterman. the sprint, very very different, 50% for fetterman, 47.5 for us. this was a much closer race. speechless but to get, there were people who voted for joe shapiro who then voted for mehmet oz. that's interesting onto itself. now let's go to, as you, said there are only four open, five open senate races, but we know that alaska is gonna go to republican because the two top candidates there are republicans. if wisconsin goes to ron johnson, it's what matters of the ballots and power because that's already a republican seat. so you only got georgia, nevada, and arizona is a look at. let's look at arizona right now: we only have 56% of the vote in, both for the senate race and the governor's race. right now mark kelly is ahead 56% to blake masters 41%. now that's a big spread, blake masters is one of the key election deniers in this country right now. but only 56% of the vote is in

right now. let's look at the governor race here, the current secretary of state katie hobbs will of course have been very, very involved in all of the fraud it and election stuff that was going on. she has been fighting that. she is a leading by quite a margin here. i can 55 to 44, at the moment, but this is the thing you have to look at right now. 56% of the vote is in right now. we have been very, very focused on this county here, which is maricopa county, which is where phoenix is, but i -- i want to take this down to tucson right now, much of tucson, by the way on the border, immigration, and things like, that become a very big concern. let's go to tucson where aaron mickelson is standing by. aaron, what is a situation there where you are? once again we are watching arizona like we were last time, over, and over again, we'll probably spend hours if not days watching arizona. we want more than 56% of the votes in, but we are not getting it right now! >> yeah that's, right and something that senator mark kelly addressed to a theater

full of his supporters at a watch party just hours ago, at the same time, telling his supporters that he is confident in today but also saying, quote, it doesn't look like we will have the final results for a little while. that's a measure tone in stark contrast to the republican candidate for governor, kari lake, she says that she expects, when she was talking to her supporters, to be able to declare victory in quote, i'll wears. calling out at the same time the quote, cheaters and crooks. take a listen: >> we had a big day today and don't let those traitors and crooks think anything different. don't let them down, don't let them put out a new! >> she's also of course supported by donald trump, also denies the 2020 election results, calling into question these elections and what

happens in maricopa county today, republicans are seizing on glitches that took place at voting centers, feeding further those conspiracy theories, according to election officials, in maricopa county. a fourth of all voting centers had issues counting some of the those. they said that they had backup systems and place that this election was not compromise, as a result, nevertheless republican seizing on that issue, taking issue today to court to try to keep those polls open in maricopa for a couple more hours. there was something denied by the judge, but as we wait for further results, certainly further feeding those conspiracy theories that's had been pushed by the republicans, ali? >> aaron, it's simon here, eamonn here, when you describe what you just described as what has been said in right-wing media circles, our colleague ben collins has been talking about at the situation in arizona playing out, online,

what's colleagues and other networks have been saying and of course kari lake being an election denier herself fueling that with the language that she was just using their afford a while ago talking about cheaters and crooks. how has that actually played out though with ordinary arizonian's? do you get a sense from the people that are around you that you have been hearing from, that they are feeling something nefarious as they right-wing is trying to fuel in arizona? >> well i was outside a polling center here in tucson, some voters were telling me, it was the extremism that was coming from the republicans that was driving them to the polls to vote for the likes of mark kelly. others were telling me that they were there at they pose to make their thoughts be known on the economy, inflation hitting the state of arizona extremely hard. others telling me that they are there to vote on the issue of abortion. so overall, i think it's a mixed bag in terms of the

conspiracy theories themselves, that something is very much playing out online. if you are not on the internet, you are not on social, media that is very much a distant reality, very far away from voters here in arizona. it's interesting when you hear mark kelly and his approach when speaking so the electorate, he's trying to strike a more bipartisan approach, reaching across the aisle. his ability, he says to work with the republicans, while at the same time challenging the biden administration on immigration and other key issues here in arizona. it's that approach that he hopes willie with those independent voters here in arizona that political scientists tell me are absolutely critical. get a cool those independent orders going out to vote in favor of democrats could be a decisive factor in this race, guys? >> erin, thank, you we have course will stay closely also if you get more information let us know. we are all eyes on georgia, all eyes on arizona tonight.

erin mclaughlin, in tucson arizona. you know there's sort of two kinds of in places like republicans have done something tonight. there is the pennsylvania stuff where they have looked at doug mastriano and said, not so much, and they voted for joe shapiro. in arizona, i ran into, and i want a few, did a whole lot of republicans who were very proud of their republican conservative heritage there. the state of mary goldwater, state of john mccain, who also actively supported democratic candidates against the election deniers. liz cheney went, there told them to and ran ads -- the kids went to mark kelly. >> right. >> mark kelly you talked it was a very cautious about, this even he you awesome or what happens if you win and blake masters does it admit that he lost, you asked him that. >> and i did ask him, that and before i get to that answer on that, he was very firm about the fact that he believes that arizona knows how to do

elections. right? we said that we have a system, we have a process, truck people in charge, already -- >> mail-in ballots invented by republicans in arizona. >> yes! so when i asked him this question about he's running a notorious election denier who is already called into question, had already called into question an election that had not yet happened when he and i were speaking, and i said, what are you going to do if he actually follows through on that, you, when any watches the results of the election? he says we have plans in place. and of course i put, some he would tell me exactly what the plans and place where. but i think it's interesting that we have come to a point in american politics where campaigns now have this duality. where they both have to be focused on how do i win, what is our closing message, how do we turn off the people we need to turn up, and -- >> what i do after the election? >> i mean yeah -- >> that wasn't a thing! >> right, it's just talking about election day anymore, it's election week now, it is for the campaign's brawl -- >> sums election week or month because of counting, because of things that happen.

or because a georgia with a runoff election. but jonathan, and all of our years of covering this, do you remember -- like a recount or because things were close. >> yeah, like a few votes, or a few thousand. >> like it's reasonable to expect why there would be a recount. now it is nonsense. people who just won't conceive an election. caroline has been carrying on all day about traitors and liars and how they are going to steal elections. she's doing what donald trump did. she's gaslighting the population! >> and that is something that we had not seen until donald trump i think it was the 2020 campaign where he actively, months before people voted, set them up -- >> set them up for a bit, yeah. >> laying the ground for a donor, there may be cheating, there might be cheating. >> the only way we loses by cheating. >> and then the votes come in, and then use it all we need a recount, we don't trust it! as we, saw i think it was an arizona, where they did the recount -- biden got more votes. >> joe biden got more votes! in the cyber ninjas thing -- >> yeah. >> wildes! [laughs] >> can i just say very quickly

that you have to, you want to say very quickly -- >> rendezvous. now we're here forever! [laughs] >> let me try this out very slowly, what i wanted to say is that this juxtaposition of what is happening in georgia and what's happening in our zona, simultaneously, and their response from senator warnock and kari lake. what is happening? both states, either slow to count or slow to get the results, one heading towards a runoff, what does warnock do? he stands up tonight as we played that clip earlier and says that we are going to stay, whether it's tomorrow morning, a, week or four weeks from, now until every georgians voice is heard. >> yeah. >> what does carry like to? she stands, up cost people crooks and cheats. >> yeah. >> she's fueling the fire that was led by donald trump earlier today. the running wild with the conspiracy theory, top across and goes on fox news and says that it's about voting machines, it's not about voting machines, it's about printers. so this is how the eco chamber of misinformation begins in republican circles. and it's as a contrast between

the tone coming out of raphael warnock and democrats in georgia, who are waiting, saying everything will be counted, let's see how this plays out. and then carry like -- citing and what season citing right now about an election that is far from over, and so, far has no signs of irregularities. >> all right, don't go anywhere, we have much more maritime coverage break, we are waiting for results out of wisconsin. we are waiting for more results out of georgia and we are waiting for arizona. we also have some governor races that we are waiting on this evening. we have more right after the break! stay with us! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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♪ ♪ ♪ you are watching our very late night or very early morning coverage of the 2022 midterm elections! joining us now: reelected democratic congresswoman from california maxine wire waters from california, 34th congressional district. congresswoman waters, thank you for being here! just, come on, admit it -- before you went today >> yes! >> when you look at this, morning did you think that you we would be having this kind of conversation that we've been having since polls start closing around the country today? vis-à-vis democrats? >> absolutely not! the predictions by so many was that the house was lost and

that they republicans were preparing to take charge, they were planning their activity, they are going to impeach biden, on, and on, and on! but look what we are looking at right now! the real possibility that the democrats are in good shape, perhaps to keep the house and maybe have even a larger number than we have now. and i'm very optimistic at this point, and i believe that we can keep control of the house. >> congresswoman waters, eamonn here, how do you explain the developments tonight? what is it that made this not play out the way that everybody anticipated, the pollsters, the pundits, and dissipated with this red wave that did not materialize so far? >> well first of all, i think many underestimated the hard work of the democrats had put into being -- a keeping control of the house. as a matter of fact, we had

good candidates, we raise a lot of money, we worked hard, nancy pelosi always believed that we could keep the house. and so we have all of those factors, in addition to that, i think that there was an overestimation of how absolutely strong trump is and how he was going to prevail and how many people were either a friend of him, or loved him, and that he was going to absolutely take charge. i think they overestimated his power and his influence up to this point. yes. >> congresswoman, ali velshi here, you are one of the earliest targets of donald trump's very unusual betrayal, right? this norm that was broken that's how you talk to people or about people. i remember those days, we are facing threats, this has become the norm now. you know? nancy pelosi's husband being attacked by someone, the idea that people have taken violence

into their planning when it comes to politics. talk to me about weather tonight outcomes are to some degree, a repudiation of that. the idea that in many cases, some of the most extreme candidates in america have not won their seats tonight. >> well i think that many of those republicans pretended that they didn't like trump either. they knew that he was right out of line, they knew that he was destroying the republican party, and even though they didn't speak out, the way that they demonstrate their dislike is what is happening here tonight with their bout and with the votes of the people that they represent. yes i spoke out earlier against him because i saw in him, during his campaign, that he was very dangerous. he really was all about power! i didn't like the way that he related to putin and kim john owen and that the way he met

secretly with putin, remember that? i mean this is something all unusual after anybody wanted to be the president of the united states of america. and i certainly didn't like his reputation about how he dealt with women and how he was on tape saying, you know you grab them by the private parts. all of that -- i just thought that was more patriotism that was being displayed after he was first elected than i've ever anticipated! the republicans have always claims to be more patriotic than anybody else. and to watch him destroy and undermine our democracy was more than i could take. more than i could even comprehend. so i think what you are describing and what we are seeing here tonight as it unfold is that he was not perhaps as strong as many thought. that maybe, not as many republicans were intimidated as we thought. et cetera, et cetera --

so i am still hopeful and i'm very optimistic that we keep the house and that we control the house and we control the senate. so we could get this country moving forward. with a kind of legislation that we could put on the presidents desk to be signed to deal with the real issues of this country. >> congresswoman maxine waters, of california, good to, say thank you for joining us this early morning! >> thank, you thank you both all very much! >> we'll be right afterward with what congresswoman waters was talking about, who is going to control congress and the senate. we're gonna show, you have some updated numbers, we'll share, with you after the quick break stay with us! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> >> before dexcom g6, my diabetes was out of control.

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>> like a, objective when, i could hear the big, but let's take a look at -- i'm not, i'm not -- okay we are not allowed to lie about these things -- let's take a look at, out [laughs] , let's take a look at what we are looking at right now, united states senate needs two seats in order to take control, why, because pennsylvania has now been one by john fetterman. that changes things. so they're gonna be looking at, a few states looking at to see how it goes. here's an interesting development, however. in the house, there are 435 states, we've now changed our projection here at nbc news to project that the republicans will win 220 of those seats and

the democrats will win 215 of them, however, because as a projection, and it's physical, and because they are still a lot of votes that haven't been counted, we are plus or minus ten seats on this thing. ten states! which still means that at this, our almost 4 am in the east, we don't know who is going to control the house of representatives. we do not know who's going to control the united states senate. all right, let's take a look at just a couple of key house races that i want to show you across the country, that are of interest, let's go to virginia, seven district of virginia's right here and 99% of the votes that we call this in the incumbent spanberger, this was especially title. the republicans had hoped to pick up in control of congress, close race, abaco spanberger with a difference of about ten and a half dozen votes, getting 51.8% of the vote.

all right i want to pull out a little bit more and show you, let's, go hold on to carlotta, this is not one that it would be in contention this is the incumbent to the -- you all know about lauren boebert, we don't think about much of, her only 87% is here but we're not able to make a, call both 87% of the votes to their district democratic challenger it's leading just -- but lauren boebert is actually behind and spent most of the evening behind. but again we are still waiting for and once we do, we'll give you more information, here's what we are looking at. when it comes to 2000 and 2020 and then plus or minus ten states. >> what we are looking at here is how the states are not made a decision on or have not been made a call on in california. you could obviously see in

coastal california up until southern california all of these coastal districts, rallies almost all of them are blue. this is typical of what you would say more inland, california, and i want to get to the south, a little more in terms of registering. we'll look at all of the ones that haven't been called just yet. and that is where we are still waiting to get a lot of information from, we are still waiting on information and nevada, we are obviously still waiting on information in i was gonna. and we are still waiting on a senate call in wisconsin. now wisconsin, ron johnson is a winning, if he wins, it doesn't make a difference to the control of the senate, because that is a republican state that would remain a republican state, so the ones that the democrats, or the republicans are hoping to capture right now for the senate are going to be actually -- let me just tell you, i'm not as good at this as steve is. let me show you what we are looking at here: georgia as one of the potential republican

pick, up rallies that's what they are looking for. arizona and nevada. alaska continues to be uncalled but the two leading contenders there for the senate are both republicans so, alaska is going to say republicans. so there are three ways that republicans need to gains and as a result, of needing to gains, they have to win two of the three outstanding places. >> an interesting thing ali, about the abigail spanberger race, the virginia seven, was early on, this was the same as weather was gonna be a bellwether for the democrats course of the evening. it's played a quite interesting away because obviously it was in a district that was a district that was redrawn to dilute her initial -- impact there was some controversy around the district was drawn to exclude her house from it. and at the same time, yes lee vega was representative of the far-right movement of the republican party. she basically supported the total abortion ban she was seen

as somewhat of an extremist, if you, well within the republican ranks, so the fact that abaco spanberger was able to pull this out pretty early, i think was a sign that the democrats were going to have a relatively better than expected evening. >> and abigail spanberger fits into an interesting narrative for republicans. right? foreign national security person, cia, so she doesn't sort of fall into the whole soft on crime, long order. >> yeah, i want to talk about this projection -- this is where the normally comes out. to see to -- >> justice? >> okay fine -- [laughs] that was an excellent burn! so this idea that republicans could have 220 seats, they need to 18 for the seats and majority. folks need to focus on this because -- how -- how -- let's pretend kevin mccarthy becomes the next speaker of the house. i don't think he will, this is just me, i don't think he will,

but -- meaning if even republicans take majority, i'm not so sure that they -- well >> there are two questions, do they win the majority? and that if they do, will he be the speaker? >> exactly will be the speaker -- now the question is how to the republican speaker governs? because he or she only has a two seat majority, that means the speaker, the republican speaker will need democratic votes to pass big things, such as raising the debt ceiling. defense spending. a whole lot of things! suddenly, even if democrats are not in the majority, they will still be able to wheel interesting power in the minority because the margin is still ten. and then on top of it, the democrats are going to have to then focus on whether they are in the majority or the minority. who's our leadership? >> and you know the scary thing is? you know who's gonna have a lot of problem if you have a kevin mccarthy one other speaker with a two seat majority or republican caucus that is a razor-thin? the marjorie taylor greene's of

the world -- and them at gates of the world, can you imagine those guys having more power than -- i majority have the megaphones, imagine having actual legislative power. what you can do to completely stymie the republican -- >> i think jonathan's points, that puts a lot of republicans, maybe of whom we still interview and who don't hold extreme views into a tough position. because in this party actually looked further to the right, this is going to be a problem for a lot of mainstream republicans who would like to get elected in 2024, at the scene that this was their best chance to have a red wave, at the moment, we do have inflation, we do have you no legitimate concerns about things out there. if it didn't happen tonight, then they may have to govern differently. >> except that let's look at some of these candidates. right? these two kind of trump endorsed handpicked, budget, j.d. bad, they are not flipping districts. they are holding on to republican seats. right? so trump and his friends have

not yet prove their theory of the case because they have not yet shown that they can expand the map. so it's part of why we are watching what happened with kari lake, it's part of what we are watching what happens with herschel walker, because that is where we are really going to see whether or not he has the level of control over this party -- >> remember, ten seats would've slips either way just because of redistricting. right? so anything fewer than ten seat as again for republicans isn't actually again. take a look at georgia, 96% of the vote, and raphael warnock with 49.1% of the votes. which is not enough to win in georgia because you have to get 50% of the vote. it's still too close to call. at some point, if somebody doesn't get 50%, the secretary of state's office is going to have to call that as a runoff and that will happen in a month. we don't know if that will happen, but brad raffensperger is the secretary of state. he was reelected tonight. stay with us, we will be right back! i didn't have that credit.

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watching msnbc continuing election coverage, joining us now, julián castro, for secretary of house and urban development during the obama administration. it is an msnbc political analyst, julián, always great to see you! we would have a conversation at the table about what a balance of what it's going to maine for a legislative agenda. what do you think? >> well no matter what happens now, it's gonna be a super

close and if the decision desk projection is right, let's say it's these that's are gonna happen, even if republicans take control of the house and the senate, it's going to be difficult for them to get the most extreme parts of their agenda accomplished. however, it's also true that even if they win the house by one vote, they are going to control the committees, they are going to launch investigations, they're going to create big headaches, unfounded investigations against the biden administration, and undo a lot of the good work that has been done in terms of investigating january six and so forth. so what happens is going to be tremendously consequential, not to mention of course in the senate, they will put a halt to judicial nominations. so, there's a lot that hangs in the balance that will change just by one vote that controls the senate and the house. >> when you talk though about what we have all been referencing as investigation

-palooza, even that they are not coming at it tonight with any kind of mandate, do you think that they still stick the course? >> i think, so alicia, unfortunately look at how off the rows they have gone on any number of issues including such a personal issue like the right to choose. that puts them out of line with the vast majority of americans and still they plow forward. i mean there extremism is part of the reason that the election denied is even close. much closer than about anybody thought it would be for control of the house. but still, they go on! i have no doubt that they will continue and try to do that if they take control of the house and the senate. >> secretary julian castro, this is -- san antonio's so you are from texas, you know texas, i am curious to get your thoughts on what happened to beto o'rourke and his campaign for governor.

>> you know, this is a tough one, jonathan, because bethel has laid the foundation, i, thank for democrats to succeed, especially in rural areas, four years ago when he visited all 254 counties, this time when he was very active. i am in unfathomable candidate that had a lot of energy, and at the same time, folks believe that he was going to get a lot closer than it seems like he's going to get denied the latest number that i saw suggested that he could lose by double digits. people do not expect that. that is dispiriting, my hope is that you know, on the positive side, we can take something from the fact that that narrative that had been developed about the real -- the heavily hispanic area, going republican did not come to pass, to those the congressional races have gone democratic and the other one texas 15 was actually we distracted a couple years ago to favor a republican.

so that is not a big surprise. >> secretary castro you of course ran for president yourself, you are accustomed to looking at maps, figuring out a path to victory. as you look at the map that we are looking at tonight, right? where the big outstanding questions are all coming out of the southwest, what does that tell you about the future of the democratic party? >> that the party needs to invest in infrastructure and continue to invest in places like nevada, arizona and i agree with folks as well that say we should've invested more in north carolina, there was sheryl beasley right there on the doorstep of taking a senate seat. we left florida, for looks like it's not the swing state that used to be. lost ohio, decisively, again even though a lot of folks believe that the profile that the timeline cuts that he was going to be successful there. but we need to start investing

in the southwest and the west and these emerging states like north carolina. i think if we do, that that won't only help in the midterms, but why the health and the presidential election years so that is work to be done for 2024. >> it's not a law for a complete reimagining of the presidential, julian castro, they get so much as always! we have more to come, next! have more to come, next

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>> are still, account of a coffee, we are joined in the next hour for multi party congress minute joe lost. plus christina career and fernando monday, another hour of midterm coverage starts right now! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> all right thank for staying up with us, i'm ali velshi, is now four -- i mean thanks for waking up. r waking up. it's 4:00 on the east coast, my friends are not abandon but take alicia menendez, and emmett walker the are with me. that'll control remains very mun the air which is not something a lot of people thought we'd be saying 4:00 a.m. in the east. one thing is for sure, predictions of a so-called red wave have not come to fruition. here is how things stand at this

hour in the fight for senate control. democrats are holding on to 48 seats, the gop at 47 seats. there are five races yet to call. one seat has flipped from gop to democrat, that is in pennsylvania with the victory of john fetterman. fetterman, by the way, defeated tv celebrity doctor mehmet oz. here is john fetterman and oz thanking their supporters tonight. >> we launched this campaign almost two years ago. and we had our slogan. it's on every one of those sites right now. every county, every vote. every county, every vote! and that's exactly what happened. we jammed them up. >> i have told you many, many times, that i believe in you. traveled all over the commonwealth to make that message clear. tonight, you have told me that you believe in me.

bless you for that. together, we will heal pennsylvania, and we will heal america. god bless you. >> in arizona, the race between mark kelly and republican challenger blake masters remains too early to call at this hour. i think the senate race, that's where they are, it is 64% of the vote is in. we've actually had a jump there in the last hour or so. we're at 55%. up to 64%, but the margin still remains quite wide between the two of them. we'll continue to get information from arizona all night. the senate race between the democratic incumbent raphael warnock and herschel walker too close to call at this hour. even though 90% of the vote is in. that's because you have to get 50% of the vote in order to win. there will be a runoff. when it comes to the house, the nbc news decision desk systems at this hour that republicans will win 220 seats with a margin

of error of plus or minus of 10 seats which is a big margin of error. so this could go either way because you need 218 seats to take the house. there are still a lot of unclosed races and probably for a few days. exit polls finds that abortion is the issue. and crime, my colleagues, jonathan capehart, alicea menendez and ayman mohyeldin are with me. we've almost left -- >> i know, i know. >> i've got some deep insecurities. i keep coming back assuming you're all here. i'm so pleased. you know what, we've been spending so much time together, jonathan and i we sit next to each other upstairs, what surprises you now. we've gotten through an evening

where we've seen a lot of surprising things. where are you now how you're thinking about tonight? >> well, i'm so focused back to my nerdiness by the last hour. now, i'm fascinated by the projection of the house. >> the 217 versus 220. >> 215 versus 220, plus or minus 10. >> anybody can control congress. let's say the projection is right. 220 where they have the majority, the principal things for us to look at, in terms of who's the next speaker really going to be. what's their governing agenda. what can they get through? what compromises does that new speaker have to make with the house freedom caucus in order to get the gavel, and what does that set up? then on the democratic side, no matter who, whether they're in the majority or the minority, who's the new leadership team. who's the majority leader. whose the w.h.i.p.? will this be the opportunity and

the moment when democrats elevate that next generation of leaders within that caucus. so, come on, california. count those votes because i need to know what's going to happen so i can know what we're going to be talking about for the next few weeks until the new congress is seated. >> to layer on to jonathan's excellent analysis, because i have all of the same questions as we move to this question of governance. republicans ran on a core issue that they have no real plan to address and that's inflation. once they are to be in charge, if they are to be in power and it becomes their answer to the question to the fact that they are dealing with a global issue? >> yeah. for me, i'm looking at the trump effect. and whether we're done with that, within the republican party. when you look the his journey from 2016 to 2020 and where he is now. there are still two key races that are undecided that i think still have trump's name on them,

kari lake, herschel walker. but as you said, j.d. vance, though he's a trump aacolyte, that's a hold, but i would be looking at it as the ron desantis effect and the donald trump effect. and see where the republican party is going to take a hard look at itself and say i think we don't need donald trump as much as we thought we need him. >> let's be honest, when you say the republican party needs to take a hard look at itself, really, it's the big republican donors who are going to be making decisions about where they're placing their bet. >> exactly. fox. who fox is going to get behind. >> well, it's been kind of clear who they're getting behind. they're sort of -- you know, kicked donald trump to the curb. and they're casting about. but they're casting about, but really looking towards florida and looking at desantis. and i think desantis' victory and the size of his victory.

>> decisive. >> decisive. and makes it possible for republicans to put donald trump in the rear view mirror for 2023. >> yeah. >> while we're talking about florida, there are a number of races in florida. the senate race, 98%, we called it for marco rubio. the incumbent. quite a big margin. 1.25 million votes, 57.7 to val demings, 41.3%. val demings if crime is your issue, is this a very prominent woman putting forward a strong case and yet decisively defeated. ron desantis 59.4% over 40%. here's an interesting thing, charlie crist, former governor of the state, ron desantis fully cleaning up in florida. when you're looking at the future of the republican party the name most closely associated

with it if donald trump doesn't declare on november 15th that he's running for president which he has strong in his words -- very, very much hinted he's going to do, ron desantis is the guy you're looking to. . i wanted to give you context. >> no, no, i appreciate that. the point i was going to continue with, ali, ron desantis delivered florida in a few ways. not only did he win his race decisively, marco rubio also won his race desizively. going back to jonathan's point about margins and projections right now, in order to have control of the house, you needed 218 seats, republicans were poised to pick up a handful of those as they did in florida just on the mere fact of redistricting. ron desantis was able to get the

redistricting done to dilute that and an early jump-start for a handful of districts. i think when you're looking at the future of the republican party. look, he hasn't been tested nationally. you can say ron desantis has not been tested nationally. donald trump is not taking shots at him. it will be interesting to see if he does respond. in terms of delivery, as you say, billionaire donors are going to be lining up watching where it goes from here and where they're going to put their money. ron desantis has a victory on his belt and say look what i did in florida and i'm ready to take it nationwide. >> we said thanks for staying with us to all the folks, but some people have woken up. it's 4:00 in the morning. thank you for being with us. i want to tell you what's happened in the senate across the country. we went into the night with republicans needing a gain of one senatorial seat because it was split 50/50, and the vice president can break the tie in

favor of democrats. we needed control. they need two, why? because pennsylvania flipped. pennsylvania was pat toomey's seat, longtime republican, conservative fiscal republican, wasn't really a trumpian. he loses -- dr. mehmet oz is running for his seat. john fetterman ends up winning. not by the margin that the governor, the governor elect won by, but he won. so, now, the gop needs two seats. this is wisconsin. at the moment it is too early to call, the incumbent ron johnson is winning. if you gave this to the republicans, they still -- that's not a gain. so it has to be out of these four states. alaska is there anyway, because it's a republican state now, the two leading candidates are republicans. now it comes down to arizona and georgia. georgia may not get decided tonight, you need 50% to win georgia.

if not, four weeks to go to a runoff, december 6. and we're waiting for information out of nevada and arizona. let's take a quick look here at the race for the senate. catherine cortez masto, at 58.5%. adam laxalt head by 650 votes. he's just taken the lead. 74% in, we don't have enough information there. >> ali, can i say something? >> yeah, because you were just there, right? >> i was just there. i think sometimes since we've spoken about blake masters, there hasn't been as much attention, but this is someone who isn't just an election denier, but this is someone who led the trump efforts in 2020. also preemptively in the advance of election day has questioned the results what has not

happened. we're looking at two different story lines here. connected but separate. which is, one, who is going to win this race? and two, should that victor be catherine cortez masto, is laxalt going to accept the results of a fair and free election? >> yeah, you mentioned the inflation issue, the fact that there's no republican plan for inflation, which a number of conservatives have backed that up. adam laxalt has made that a key issue that inflation is joe biden and the democrats and doesn't have a plan for it. here we go to arizona, 55% to 65% in the last hour. for this happening all night, for those of you thinking nothing is happening all night, stay with us, because you're going to get stuff out of arizona. this remains too close to call. it's 66%, but it doesn't look close, mark kelly is ahead, 52% to blake masters. it's a remarkable -- i don't know, i'm running out of

adjectives to use. he's an election denier. the spread there is pretty good, 118,000 votes. but in arizona there's a lot of mail-in voting. this was invented by republicans in arizona, brought in by republicans. so there's just a lot of issues. we continue to look at maricopa county because this is where we're still waiting for a lot of votes. by the way, tends to vote overwhelmingly democratic, phoenix. slightly more in voting, 58%. you see the margin is narrower. 52% to 45%. let's go to pima county in tucson, that's along the border. look at that, 52% of the vote in, you can't call things when you have that little vote. but 65 to 32. there are more conservative counties in the state, you can take a look at that, blake masters ahead of mark kelly. and the counties well ahead of him, navajo county -- that's

closer, 50.5 in graham county, you can we've still got a lot of business to do in arizona. and we are going to spend the night now thinking about georgia which may not get settled tonight. we're thinking about wisconsin where the sitting senator ron johnson is in the lead. and we're thinking about nevada and arizona. that's what it's going to come down. typically, election night, we'd be thinking about all of those things plus pennsylvania. >> uh-huh. >> numbers in pennsylvania came in early in philadelphia which is where most of the votes in pennsylvania are. decided to work through the night. they didn't close up shop and go home because this knew that the entire country waited on pennsylvania last time for several days. so we got the pennsylvania results in very quickly. and michigan was another question, another thing we were looking at. that has mostlien decided. ayman, you say there's one race we haven't got a call on, dana

nessel? >> yeah, dana nessel, the trifecta between dana necessarying and gretchen whitmer. >> all of them went democratic. and the abortion issue in the michigan issue one. so it's unusual that the dana nessel one has not been settled yet. we're awaiting that too. otherwise in michigan, it was a clean sweep in pennsylvania. >> it's on the screen. >> we'll continue to keep an eye on that. >> let me ask you quickly, you guys remember this, arizona in 2020, arizona had the crazy audits afterwards, the ninja ballots. >> the bamboo -- >> right, there was a bamboo connection to arizona. sniffing the paper. it smelled like bamboo. >> why is it that arizona is not able to have a more streamlined voting process? you guys were there on the ground. i don't know if that came up on

the conversation i get that there are different ways to vote, that's great, you should have same day, drop-in ballots, drop boxes why is that at 1:15 a.m. in arizona time why is that so crucial? >> because it's better to do it right than do it best. >> right. >> there's an important distinction in this country. growing up in canada where there's one way to vote, you put it on a piece of paper, you fold it up and somebody counts it. the thing with america, if anything has to do with elections it should be how quickly we count ballots and when you start. and there's no voting fraud issue whatsoever in arizona whatsoever, they have mastered like washington state like other people, they have mastered the ability to do absentee voting and mail-in voting. there's no problem whatsoever.

it's not the accounting problem, it's the methodology for accounts. we don't have federal election. we have state and local elections. that's an important distinction to have. how do we get and count votes and what gets counted first in mail-in and military. like pennsylvania has a stupid, stupid law and it actually has come in today, in pennsylvania, the mail-in ballot, and what you put on the outside of the envelope on which you put your ballot, apparently. >> date. you got to date it properly. >> now, there is an expression that we use for that in canada for that rule. it starts with a "b" and sends with an "s." why is the date -- when you mail in a ballot, they stamp it. why is my ballot invalidated. thousands of people lined up because the city of philadelphia

figured this out because people were objecting to it. they called all of these people and said, please, please, get to city hall, you had to go to city hall, a bit of a pain to go to city hall. thousands lined up spent hours there recasting their ballots today. this is the nonsense about voting in america. there should be no such rule. it has been fetterman and his team filed a case to say this is against the voting rights act. you can't have a student impediment to voting that causes to you put a date on the outside of your envelope. last time was the same thing, you have to put your ballot inside of something and that goes into something. >> right. a secrecy sleeve. >> it's nonsense. you look at a state like florida which is a large problem. >> which had an accounting problem in the past. >> right, 2000. you look at how they're able to get the results early. >> florida has figured this out. >> then you look at california, you're like, guys, again, 1:15 in the morning, to jonathan's

point, we have no indication what is happening. >> we'd all be getting to bed two hours ago. but what would you be doing, right? joe walsh is standing by to talk to us. >> i'm sure joe has opinions for us. >> joe is sleepless. if we didn't have ballots to talk about, what would we talk about. let's stick around after the break, joe is a tea party republican. i think we've all interviewed him. >> i've gotten into fights with him. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. joe is a guy we've all fought with but he's never left the game but he's got strong views on what people like him who are conservatives who think like him happens. next. ♪♪

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♪♪ all right. last night control of both chambers of congress was up for grabs. and if history held true, the party that controls the white house would typically lose seats. but president biden is poised to become one of the most successful president at retaining seats in a midterm election in modern history. so what happened to the so-called red wave? joining me now is former republican congressman joe walsh of illinois. he's also the author of the book

"at silence." joe, great to see you, we've probably been exchanging messages on twitter today like hundreds of others. it's great to see you. when you look at what's happened, you look at the numbers, we were talking about what drove people out to the polls today, what really got people fired. you there's conversations about economic anxiety, about abortion but, you know, 71% voted for a republican candidate. 28% for the democratic candidate. the breakdown, and you have that there on the screen, of the various subjects, i think surprised a lot of people what mobilized or what motivated people. how do you read the developments of today, in terms of the motivaing factor behind the turnout? >> ayman, good to be with you. look, i take a contrarian view here. i think one of the big takeaways is that americans really did care about the state of our democracy. even if they had a hard time

talking about it, and explaining what that meant, here they looked at ballots. in every state in this country, where republicans were putting up crazy election deniers. and i think that went a long way toward a lot of these undecided voters saying this can't stand. at the end of the day, i do care about our democracy. i give president biden a lot of credit for making that speech just a couple weeks ago. >> let me ask you about the biden approval factor, because a lot of people are looking at that as an indicator of where we would be by the end of the night. the numbers of where his approval rating was, was an indicator that the democrats were going to get it on the chin. the republican messaging was this was going to be a red wave, and it turned out not to be. what does today mean for joe biden? we were saying this will probably mean he's going to be

one of the most successful presidents. he can certainly see a silver lining in a night like this. what does this mean for his governing strategy going forward, even if the republicans do take the house with the majority that we're, at this point, projecting that maybe 220 to 215, plus or minus 10. >> look, i'm not a democrat, i think what that means for all the rest of us, we have to quit underestimating joe biden. he's did it again. he's gotten a hell of a lot accomplished in two years. ayman, you said it, when it comes to a president midterm, he's defied history i think the odds are republicans will still take control of the house. in a weird way that will be a really good thing for joe biden and i believe the democrats because kevin mccarthy is going to have marjorie taylor greene pick joe biden apart. and whatever body part, whatever

republicans in the house are going to be forced to just obstruct and investigate and try to impeach. they won't do anything for the american people. and joe biden can respond to that. >> sorry did you want to -- >> i was just going to say, joe said he's not a democrat. you are a conservative. you'd like to be a republican. what does that do for you on that front? what happens to the republican party and the conservative movement as a result of tonight? >> ali, i love the discussion you and i have. because we do always kind of go at it, and i give you a very unsatisfactory answer. >> always. >> i don't think i'll ever go after this republican party because i don't think it's ever going to change. so for conservatives like me and liz cheney, and there are a bunch of us out there. look, our job at this point in history is to support democrats and that's hard to stomach at times, but the democrats support

democracy, but most conservatives on the election cycle. >> joe, it's jonathan capehart, i want to go back to kevin mccarthy and the potential of his speakership because i'm totally nerding out on the fact that this narrow margin, this projected margin, is going to make his ability to govern really, really difficult. i actually think it's going to make the possibility of kevin mccarthy being speaker really, really hard. do you think his potential speakership is in danger because of the freedom caucus and the marjorie taylor greens and the matt gaetzes who might want to have somebody a little more trumpier? >> jonathan, i agree. look, i think kevin mccarthy who i know well who is a hollow man, he has no core. all he wants to do is become speaker. he cut a deal with marjorie taylor greene sand matt gaetz and all the rest of them to become speaker, as long as they gave them things.

but he's not going to become speaker with a very convincing victory. that may jeopardize his ability to become speakers. but here's the deal, if mccarthy is speaker, that means marjorie taylor greene is speaker -- period. she will own him. she will tell him privately and publicly what to do. i mean that. that's the two years mccarthy would be looking at. >> joe, i want to ask you, one more question, since i've got you, one more personality, ron desantis, governor desantis winning reeconnection by 20 points. to my mind -- you tell me, i'm thinking that ron desantis just freed himself from the clutches of donald trump. and is now his own person. and can tell donald trump to go stuff it. am i giving him too much credit? >> oh, jonathan, way too much credit. look, hey. >> it's 4:00 a.m.

>> it's interesting to put out there. i don't think ron desantis is ready for prime time. ron desantis can't take a punch. ron desantis can't get in the ring with donald trump. look, every republican power broker and donor and influencer is dying for donald trump to leave the scene. they felt that way a week ago. they felt that way four weeks ago -- months ago. they've never had the courage to say that. but republican voters are still with trump. and if he comes out and announces in two weeks or a week, which i think he will, i just don't think ron desantis is equipped to compete with that. >> joe, good to see you as always. thanks for saying up so late. or starting your wednesday so early for us, as always. >> great, everybody, thanks. >> former congressman of illinois. >> interesting.

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♪♪ you'll remember earlier this year, kansas had a referendum about abortion. it is enshrined as a right in kansas. there's a vote to actually take it off. that was defeated. we had four ballot questions tonight about abortion. i want to tell you about the results of all of them. this one was in vermont. the question is the right to

reproductive atautonomy. 72%. that's enough to call it. let's go to michigan. proposal 3, talked about a lot, enshrined in the michigan constitution. vote was closer there. 55% to 44%. we'll see that settle in. you also awe the attorney general and democratic governor winning in michigan. we've got that. happening. let's go to california where abortion question is the right to abortion. 45% in, but because of the trend in california, we're able to call that, the difference is actually quite large, 1.6 million, 65% to 34%. those numbers may change over time. but we're calling that a win as well. kentucky this is interesting because it's not in line with everything else that's happening in elections in that state, this is to remove the right to abortion. this is opposite. the vote is, would you like to remove the right to abortion. i don't think we've called this yet, 82% of the votes are in on

this one. and the no, don't remove the right to abortion continues to be ahead. and it's been ahead for most of the night. again, it's close, 33,000 votes. we're going to keep an eye on this one. there's another question i want to show you, this one is in montana. very unusual, referendum question 131. to require care for infants born alive. require doctors to provide medical care for infants born alive. i don't really know of any instances, for a long time where a doctor has refused care for an infant born alive. it's a weird question. but, you're seeing here, 78% in, 78% of the votes in. it does seem to be an abortion question which is how people have voted and the no side is winning versus the yes side. interesting in all of the cases we know of, three of the five cases, we've got a situation where abortion rights have been affirmed. in two, it's not been settle ed

yet, but it looks like it's going that way. in every instance where an abortion question was asked, the abortion right side of things seem to have emerged. i want to be careful of the way i've phrased. because of the weirdness of how montana has asked that question. of course, earlier this year, we saw kansas, right, where it's not a reflection of whether people like abortion rights or not. alicia, you were making the point, it felt more like people saying don't take my rights away? >> right. i want to read a little bit about the referendum, in montana, this is what we see with the referendums and the way they're worded. >> they're confusing. >> they're confusing. part of the doctors concern, the law will admit palliative care for infants that survive. we talk about abortions that happen during a pregnancy that is advanced very often is a medical intervention on the part

of a doctor, either because there is risk to the mother or to the baby. this, again, you see the way it is worded. you see the language, right, of the name of the referendum kind of says it all. >> right. and this is something that we found in instances all across america. where we've talked to people about this concept of doctors being held liable for abortion matters, because the issue becomes doctors aren't making this legislation. there isn't somebody who is a legislator in that room with the pregnant person making that decision. so, now, you've got -- there's one state, i can't remember where it was, they just -- they just stopped providing abortions because no one could figure out what lawyer you need to make what decision in order to do it. >> and this has happened to all of you, i've spoken to providers where they say, i am in a moment where i have to make a critical medical decision. and in that moment, i know -- >> call the lawyers. >> in that moment, i say call the lawyers which both slows

down care, reduces quality of care. and adds an entire gray element to what should be otherwise be medically based and scientific. >> in a case where people are worried about a case where that particular attorney general may want to make. >> and to talk back to this, and you think about common sense to people, and if you're a person who has sought health care in this country, you know you don't want your doctor on the phone with an attorney determining -- >> determining your care. >> with greg abbott in his campaign, it was this very powerful ad of a woman with her husband talking to the doctor. and the doctor tells them, you knoll, you're going to to have to make a very difficult choice. but before he does, he goes and picks up the phone and he calls greg abbott to find out whether or not he can proceed. it's a very tough ad for moms in texas for beto. i think to your point, barack obama in his final messages both

in pennsylvania and wisconsin talked about abortion. i think hedelivered a very good message which is there are good people with good conscience who disagree with me about abortion, but all of us can agree a woman has a right to make a decision about her own body. that's the message in the campaign. >> freedom. >> freedom. >> we'll be right back with the results of the midterm elections here on msnbc. stay with us. ♪♪ [coughing] hi, susan. honey. yeah. i respect that. but that cough looks pretty bad. try this robitussin honey. the real honey you love, plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin. the only brand with real honeyand elderberry.

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♪♪ it is almost 5:00 in the morning out east. i'm alicia men mendez. thank you for joining us for msnbc's continuing election coverage. joining us conversation, a democratic analyst and msnbc analyst, christina greer. it's great to see you both. i've got to start with your home state, a state i've spent a lot of time in. we've seen the numbers and understand how big they are. it also has to be understood in the context of the democratic party making a strategic decision not to invest in the state. what say you? >> listen, amazing to think ten years ago we woke up thinking that the democrats have picked it up and obama cared the state

for the second time and republicans freaked out. to their credit, alish yashgs alicia, they quadrupled and tripled it down. it's a ruby red state, one of the other elements that folks haven't thought so much about. in the past, republicans have had to spend so much money with florida, even as they're winning, they're winning by margins. and now it's going to free up some of that republican matter to compete in other states in 2024. it's a significant reversal of fortunes. and the big winner in the republican circle the despite the fact that no red wave materialized absolutely last night was ron desantis. >> christina greer. my favorite political scientist. there are a lot of people who were surprised by the results we've seen coming in. curious about what it was that was driving voters to the polls,

that was informing their decision. as you watched the results roll in, what was top of mind for you? >> data shows that voters go to the polls based on economic issues. and joe biden's had quite a few wins. he's been able to decrease inflation to a certain extent. and voters are interested in sticking with him to a certain extent moving forward at least for the next two years. i think democrats need to do a lot better at articulating their wins. time and time again, alicia, we have this conversation. democrats have victoies and can they let the voters know. and i think they did go to the polls thinking about, a., the future of our democracy, and i'm curious to see the polling of young people who really did turn out, thinking about a woman's right to choose. that's male and female voters, thinking about their own future, how much government

intervention, especially from the republican side they said they wanted to have some people's lives and people's bodies. >> hey, christina, you're in new york. we haven't even talked about the new york race. kathy hochul going up against republic dan lee zeldin who just road the crime issue into the ground and narrowed the polling gap that he had with governor hochul. but he we see there on the board, governor hochul won by five points. was the concern overblown? >> no, jonathan, i don't think it was. this was definitely of great concern. so many people said, oh, new york is blue, i don't need to vote. new york is blue, we don't need to worry about this, she's the incumbent. and lee zeldin is an anti-choice, election denier, insurrection supporter who has no plan for jobs, no plan for inflation. it's fearmongering. let's be clear, crime is up in particular areas.

but for a lot of folks, it's perception of crime. he rode that wave, jonathan, with very few details of the future of new york state. the fact that kathy hochul won in single digits should let her know that there's work do articulating her vision for new york. when you look at the map, every state is a red state. it's do you have the blue cities to make that red state turn blue every two or four years. if you look at the map of new york, you've got really strong blue cities and sometimes blue surrounding areas but look at the map, it's ruby red. there are a lot of counties that bought what lee zeldin was selling. he was hoping he'd have a 1994 george pataki surprising. if you recall, george pataki out staked mario cuomo in that term. however that type of republican barely exists anymore.

lee zeldin is a trump-supported candidate. and new yorkers rejected it but only rejected by single digits and that should concern the democratic party moving forward, just because if they get another candidate with a little more time, a little more experience, and can have a multifaceted vision that's not singular as far as crime, then they could have a victory some point down the line. >> fernand, ayman, here, quick question for you, there's concern that the narrative that had been discussed among latino voters was becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy. do you feel after tonight, democrats should wake up to concerns out there, that they're losing big swaths of latino voters to the democratic -- to the gop, excuse me? >> oh, i think tonight's result, as we get more data coming in made it clear. the democrats do not have a problem with hispanic voters with the exception of my home state of florida which is a different dynamic.

florida is all different with the case of hispanic voters. overall, naturally, even with the state of texas, there's a lot of concern about the rio grande valley. you saw secretary castro there i think democrats received overwhelming support from hispanic. nevada and arizona where they go for democrats, i think the question is not so much is and are hispanics strongly in the democratic column but it's what they continue to do to grow that coalition for the states for 2024. because they're going to need every last one of that hispanic support to get joe biden over the top, ayman, if he decides to run for president again in 2024. >> fernand amandi, christina gear, i don't know if you stayed up late or got up early. fantastic. thank you so much. we're going to fit in another quick break. we'll be right back.

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we have got nor hour in us. don't go anywhere. in the next hour, we're going to talk to a political analyst, color of rashad robinson, creator of the tv series the culture series, alissa london and greg blumstein. another hour of 2022 midterm coverage on msnbc begins right now. ♪♪

all right. welcome back to msnbc's continuing coverage of the 2022 midterm elections. it is 5:00 a.m. in the east. you've either been with us all night or just waking up with us. either way, grab a cup of coffee, gather in, control of congress believe it or not still hangs in the balance. nbc news decision desk projects republicans will have a two-seat majority with 220 seats in the house of representatives next year. that projection does, however, because it's a projection, include a margin of error of plus or minus 10 seat. 218 seats are needed to take the house. it's a jump ball right now. out west in nevada republican senate hopeful adam laxalt now narrowly leads the democratic incumbent catherine cortez masto

with 80% of the vote in. that is still too early for us to call. in the senate, democrats made a key gain with the victory of john fetterman over tv doctor mehmet oz. fetterman had this to say this his supporters. >> i'm proud on what we ran on. protecting a woman's right to choose. raising our minimum wage, fighting the union way of life, health care is a fundamental human right. it saved my life. and it should all be there for you, if you ever should need it. >> now, which party controls the senate remains up in the air. we're still awaiting updates from key battleground states such as wisconsin. there the incumbent republican senator ron johnson is narrowly leading the democratic nominee

men della barnes. this race, with 94% in still remains too close. the democratic incumbent mark kelly, that race, also, too early to call. that's because 67% of the vote is in. although it's trickling by the hour. and because there's always georgia where the democratic senator raphael warnock leads, with 96% in. that is a runoff and continues to categorize georgia close to call. five states considered ballot proposals on abortion measures to protect abortion access prevail. in california, in michigan and vermont. results from kentucky and montana are too early to call right now. i'm back with jonathan capehart, alicia hernandez and ayman mohyeldin. we want to -- do we want to go

to jake at the moment? i just want to check with control room. can i talk to my friends -- i can chat with my friends, that's good. >> he sounded like a teenager. >> can i talk a little longer. we have been here all night, there's one of the things to talk about before the break, joe walsh, republican still conservative, made the point everybody has to stop underestimating biden. it's kind of wild. his popularity remains relatively low, lower than recent presidents going into a midterm election. and yet, however this all shakes down, his performance in a midterm election hasn't been better. >> right. we've seen democratic president goes out the morning after a midterm election and using words like "so lacking." or republicans saying we took a thumping. >> right. >> what is he going to say?

it's a good night for a democrat, and also a good night for a president. the folks are looking at him with the possibility of him having a conversation because of devastation supposed to happen among democrats, oh, my god, what does this mean? joe biden, should you run for president again? i think if those conversation rs start happening, ayman, that they will be premature. >> well, listen to your point, you were talking to pierre john pie pierre. and you were talking about should the president be here, if he wasn't there, why isn't the president in all of those locations? why isn't he on the stump with all of the others. i think tonight, he's been vindicated with the strategy that the white house and democratic party has rolled out. he campaigned and got the candidates across the finish line in a place like

pennsylvania with john fetterman who is out there with barack obama as well. we'll see how that plays out. to your point, if georgia goes to a runoff, it's no longer a georgia race, it's a national race. and you'll see both parties put in heavy hitters. and the president will be strengthened and uplifted by what has happened tonight to say i will go to georgia. and i do have a place to play in the future of that race. >> let me asked two things to this conversation, one is i think we've known for some time that we need a better way of rating the favorability. >> yes. >> of a national leader. that these numbers have proven insufficient. of course, people are frustrated by things that are happening in their everyday life. of course, they're most likely to blame the guy in charge for that. i think voters are still smarter and more nuanced than that, but they can like the guy and wish that eggs didn't cost so much. that they can wish that the

party take action to help ease the pain. if i'm the administration, i'm thinking about how to message this. yes, it was a win for biden. yes, it was a win for dems. i think you got to talk about this as a win for democracy. >> yeah. >> we walked up to this moment talking about the fact we feel as though we're teetering. where is the leader that's going to step in and rangel folks? you know what it ended up being, everyday americans. >> that's right. >> they took time from their jobs and their kids and they showed up and they voted. maybe not because their favorite person was on the ballot. but because they understood the moment. >> it's citizenship in action. that's the thing. >> and the other thing, let's keep in mind that president biden gave two speeches about threats to democracy. one that was a week before election day. and there were people who were still questioning why is the president talking about this, folks don't care really about this. if you look at the polls, it's inflation, it's the economy, it's crime. and what we're finding out to

alicia's point, no, threats to democracy was front and center. >> can we put that back up on the screen for a second? that poll for threats for democracy. it shows that the one commonality between democrats and republicans that an overwhelming of both think that democracy is threatened but for entirely different reasons. republicans think that voting is fraudulent. and that joe biden is not the president. we've got a president in books that we're teaching and going to turn against him. >> right. >> so therein lies an interesting question, and joe walsh again, conservative, he said he thought joe biden giving a speech about democracy was actually the right thing to do. while everyone may not articulate that the thing to do is i'm go out there to vote for democracy, you've all said it differently tonight. people can understand, boy, you're crazy or that's whack. >> or respect the elections.

>> respect the elections or you're anti-democrat. >> and it created a sense of urgency. >> right. >> which is extremely urgent in a midterm. >> right, midterms are not urgent. >> right. absolutely, this is a way of saying your vote counts. >> one thing i'm going to add as a caveat, in some races too close to call, most of them won -- most of them have won. for me, the big takeaway about what has happened since 2020, is when you have a far right party or extreme right-wing party like the republican party, they didn't self-moderate after 2020. donald trump did not come out, kevin mccarthy didn't come out -- they did maybe for a day or two, they could have walked away from the trump extremism or the maga extremism. but it was short lived. they doubled down and went back

in. they pivoted to the right. for me, the takeaway, republicans are going to have this again. should we have leaned even even harder and put in each more extreme candidates. >> well -- >> go ahead. >> i was going to say i'm going to run down the list of ones who lost. these are the deniers. the gubernatorial candidates who did not accept the results of the 2020 election were too close to call with the denier in chief who is kari lake in arizona. tim michaels in wisconsin lost. he said if you elected republicans they would never lose again in wisconsin which is a strange thing to say. tudor dixon in michigan, lost. doug mastriano lost decisively to josh shapiro, his democratic opponent. dan cox in maryland, we were expecting that loss, but he lost because the outgoing maryland governor called him a kook or

something like. >> something like that. >> lee zeldin, who we just talked to christina greer, he lost. secretary of state, to maggie hassan. who close to call in arizona with mark finchem there at january 6th. he was there with the crowd. jim marsh in nevada, christina in michigan, her whole thing was about crime. kim crockett from minnesota, secretary of state candidate lost, election denier. in new mexico, lost. and in pennsylvania, you can't call it a loss, because it's not an elected position, but doug mastriano has said if he had won, he would have appointed a secretary of state who would have done that. key positions, democracy could have died or like died in pennsylvania or arizona, but a lot of those key deniers lost

their election site. >> you're right. with brian kemp and brad raffensperger, two people who stood up to donald trump and the big lie. >> and they were re-elected. >> and they were re-elected. you can make the argument at least in georgia people were able to make that distinction. the jury is still out on herschel walker but they're able to look at brian kemp and brad raffensperger and still say, we rejected what trump did in 2020 and we're going to bring you guys back for a couple more years. >> we want to look at one more race before we go to california. it is a governors race in -- rebecca tell me -- let's go to nevada and take a look at what the situation is in the governor's race. it's tightening. we still are -- we can't call this, it's 80% in, it's too early to call, joe lombardo, the republican now in the lead.

50.6% to 45.8, this is another potential change in the governor's mansion if this persists. >> right. we understand that it was hit, all states were hit economically by the pandemic. nevada, because of its reliance on tourism. and i don't know -- you were in arizona, i was in nevada. where there was frustration about that issue, they were more likely to lay it at the feet of the governor, than at the feet of the u.s. senator, right? they saw it as a state issue. >> right. >> so it's also going to be interesting to watch as both of those numbers come in, who they told responsible. >> we're going to keep a close eye on them, as we have a number of states we're watching. let's go to orange county, home of conservatives like richard nixon and ronald reagan. the region saw a blue wave with the election of katie porter but saw republican resilience including the election of republican congresswoman michelle steele.

michelle steele's race is an interesting one. nbc news' jake ward is joining to us explain it. jake, good morning to you in california. what's the situation where you are. >> reporter: yeah, not exactly as to what time it is on my watch, but a really interesting thing to be in california, watching all of this. you guys have been unpacking the races across the country in such an expert way, but to watch them from california is a very unique thing because, first of all, we know, right, at this point because california is both so huge and the count happens so late in the process, it's probably -- i mean, it's really, i think, not too much to say that california could determine the fate of all of this. right. that margin of error could truly be corrected here in california within the next day or so. and it is just a fascinating place to watch. because, first of all, there's all this rhetoric, the stuff that you guys have been unpacking so expertly around the misinformation and intentional

disinformation about, you know, kari lake and the rest of them trying to punch hole information the idea that we have free and fair elections in this country. well, here in california, i've been watching the mechanism at work. and it is extraordinary to see, right? the combination of gps-tracked boxes like the one you see over my shoulder being brought in, sheriffs duties overseeing it. the extraordinary staff. every step of the way there's a chain of custody that rivals, you know, the moving of gold bars through bank processes. i mean, all of this stuff is so extraordinarily ironclad. that said, there's still a lot of mystery out there. that mystery has to do with which way this state is going to go. we know by and large it will be blue. and we know the big names, you know, what has happened with them, the maxine waters, the barbara lees, the adam schiffs, the nancy pelosis, we know the victors in those contests but there are so many in these newly

redistricted golden state that has yet to be determined and so much of the fate of the whole midterm is going to come out of this state, you guys. >> jake ward, we appreciate it. thank you for your reporting. i think you're right before we know where the ballots of power end in congress, we're going to have to see a lot of results from california. hopefully, we get those over the course of the next few days. good to see you, my friend, as always. jake ward in california. we're going to take a quick break. we'll be right back. be right ba. shingles doesn't care. because no matter how healthy you feel, your risk of shingles sharply increases after age 50. but shingrix protects. proven over 90% effective, shingrix is a vaccine used to prevent shingles in adults 50 years and older. shingrix does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients or to a previous dose. an increased risk of guillain-barré syndrome was observed after getting shingrix.

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all right. watching a few senate races. first off, i want to get it off the table, it doesn't matter who's going to be win there, it's republican. wisconsin too close to call, same thing, if ron johnson wins it, it's no gain for the republicans. republicans need two seats. so it may go to georgia which may go to runoff. and i'm going to take that off the board which comes down tos arizona and nevada why we're looking at that closely. nevada, it's the senate election. 80% in, we're calling that too early to call. adam laxalt, the republican has now taken the lead there, a lead of 22,000 votes over the incumbent catherine cortez masto, but that would be a gain for republicans if that were to happen. but too close to call. this is how nevada breaks down

the only overwhelming blue county is clark county where las vegas is. right now, 84%, catherine cortez masto leading adam lax cement, 51 to 49%. more to come here. let's switch to the governors race. statewide, same situation, 80% in, joe lombardo now beating the incumbent steve sisolak. too early to call there. let's take a look at the senate race in nevada -- i'm sorry, i just looked at that. so, let's go out to arizona now -- you know what, i want to do one other thing, i want to look at the governors race in nevada. 80% there. let's go to clark county, same situation where there are more democratic votes to come for steve sisolak, they're going to come from clark county. being it's closer, 49.7 to 46.9. that's where we are until nevada. i'm going to talk about my colleagues about that a little

more in a second. for more than that, let's go to arizona, see what the situation is few fewer in terms of percentage. 67% in statewide. katie hobbs very close now. 35,000 votes separating katie hobbs from kari lake who is an election denier. again, there are lots of places these votes can come from, let's take a look at maricopa county and phoenix, 68% in. we are getting these in. when we first started we were at about 56%. every hour, we're getting more and more of these votes and that's what we're looking at in arizona. let's take a look at the senate race there. this is the incumbent mark kelly. let's look at it statewide for a second. 67% in that makes it too early to call, mark kelly at 52%, blake masters, another important election denier. maricopa county -- obviously, maricopa county is where the

freud-it was, and the bamboo sniffing. 68% in, still makes it too early to call, 53 to 45. this is why we can't tell hue is going to control the senate tonight. we wouldn't be able to tell you anyway, because of georgia. so, we're not going to make that decision. we'll get this information from wisconsin eventually. but it won't matter, because it can't give the republicans a lead. nor can alaska. so for tonight's purposes and tomorrow morning's purposes, nevada and arizona are what we're looking at. ironically, two states that my colleague alicia menendez has just been in. >> not ironic at all. if you need to know something about me, ali, i do like being right now and then. one of the things, one of the arguments i was making, a lot of this is going to come down to nevada, it was going to come down to arizona. that is, of course, frustrating, there are also states when you

talk to people, they're saying don't expect this is going to be divided in this state on election night. in nevada and arizona, they were trying to talk about that expectation, to the candidates who are, in fact, election deniers. we sort of knew this was going to be the case. it has proven to be so. one of the other things that someone in nevada told me, as you pull up that those cortez mastro numbers, you either win by two or lose by one. this is a state that is going to be close. >> yeah. >> no matter how it turns out. i think the other important context in nevada, you know, this was the read machine. this was the political machine that harry reid had built inside the state. this is the first time that catherine cortez mastro, a protege of his, he hand selected her. first time running a race without him. that is lingering in the background with that entire conversation.

>> we're following this one very closely for the course of the night. >> i want to bring in maria hermosa, founder of hermosa group. sean robinson, president of a nonprofit, also here on msnbc a creator and producer of the series "the culture series." maria, i'm going to start with you, there was one narrative about latino voters going into tonight. it's been more nuanced and complicated what is your view tonight? >> well, actually, aleash yashgs alicia, i went to sleep. >> don't brag. >> i love what you said, alicia, today, this morning, it was a vote for democracy that won. i went to sleep thinking there

might be a red wave. although i was very circumscirc, i was concerned about violence and intimidation and of course, watching latino voters. right now, i'm calm. and regular people coming out and taking the issues to hand. the first thing that got me the circle that "the new york times" made around the u.s./mexico border, saying that the red wave around the south rio grande valley did not happen. even though beto did not win, one of the things i was watching was texas because of the fact that i had so many latina/latino voters were motivated to come out and vote because of uvalde. and their disappointment, their anger, towards governor greg abbott. but at the same time, you know, looking at these numbers, of course, greg abbott won. but it still was a win, i think, in the sense of voters in texas

writ large. because as you know, it's often said in texas is not a blue state or red state. it's a nonvoting state. so increasing voting by any measure by latinos is great. i'm looking at places like pennsylvania where latinos and latinas are the swing within the swing, within lehigh valley of pennsylvania. i don't know the specifics, but the fact that fetterman won is a very big deal. those are some of the takeaways, but i am feeling pretty positive. and my big critique, i think, is of us in the media. why did we continue to talk about this red wave. this red wave, this red wave. when it was clear that, when you couldn't actually say that with certainty. but i'm feeling good. >> maria, i should say pulitzer prize winning journalist maria hinojosa. a poll was conducted of latino

voters in florida, georgia, pennsylvania. i'm curious to get your sense, now that we have seen people vote, and we have vote tallies, i'm wondering if you've been able to in the wee hours that we have here, there's been a discrepancy -- not a discrepancy, but a difference between your findings in that poll in october, and the results, the hard results, we're seeing now? >> look, i think, first of all, social media wanted to dig into the whole issue of polling, and we did, we're a small nonprofit and mighty strong. i'm super produces of my colleague who led that polling. polling of latinas and latinos as you know is not easy. it's the thing that we should all be focusing on because my mantra over and over again, latinos and latinas are the second largest voting bloc -- not bloc, voting cohort, in the united states.

but as we know, what we said in our polling with latinos in florida, ron desantis is a big winner. and he turned out to be that winner. but still, to me, jonathan, the big issue you have got to go after these voters. you cannot -- you cannot let them just sit there and pretend that they're not important, because they have to be. and ohio, i think, is a big loss for democrats. and, again, if you look at latino voters in ohio, it's a tiny margin. but that's the kind of thing that could have changed the result in ohio. so if we're going to continue to do the polling, for us, it's always a way for us to understand the complexity of the latina/latino vote. it's part of our message. it's not a simple voting cohort. but we who believe in democracy have to be talking about the second largest voting cohort that exists in the united states. >> rashad, ayman here, big history-making candidates today. african american candidates

making history today. immediately coming to more, wes moore, first african american governor in that state, that of itself, remarkable, the ag s.a.g. as well, anthony brown as well, first african american attorney general. tell us about the races you're watching this evening that are going to have an impact, not just on the african american community, but on all of the issues and all of the social justice stuff that you track and work on closely? >> you know, we were looking very closely at michigan and pennsylvania, just as states where election deniers were very much trying to take control of the infrastructure of elections. whether it was the governor race in pennsylvania being able to appoint the secretary of state. or in michigan where our political action committee drew down and really engaged and supported and also the attorney

general. and secretary of state and attorney general. and the governor on a democratic side. we were also looking at places maybe a lot of people weren't looking at. there was a lot of money thrown into the attorney general race in minnesota. people remember keith ellison really stepping in, the gap, during the uprise of 2020. and taking that case against derek chauvin, with his knee for eight full seconds on george floyd's neck. ellison taking that race and really engaging there. that was another place. we also engaged in hennepin county district attorney race. also another place where so much of the movement that people have become politicized in 2020, the uprise and upticks of voter registration. minneapolis was a place where the political action committee engaged. we wanted to make sure we went

there and sent a message around reform and continuing to place pressure, even while there's national conversation around walking away some of the reforms that became a focus of a lot of energy in 2020. i think that another place we weren't focusing on, and a disappointment, was some of the sort of exceptional, brilliant and impressed black women on the ballot statewide. a number of those candidates didn't get over the line in north carolina and georgia, in particular, where we were supporting beasley and abrams. but i also think the fact that we are in this moment, we are contending for power. our folks are contending for power in this way. and outside organizations in the party are trying to figure out how we get folks over the line. the ability to be able to see themselves in these races that we couldn't possibly see a couple of years ago, i think

it's important. >> alicia, nearly 90 indigenous candidates are state ballots. when i was in the state, i heard a lot about indigenous communities were play for the voting group. your thoughts, as you watch the results roll in? >> i want to note that i'm incredibly proud of mary and her team becoming the first alaskan native in congress ever. i think as an alaska native we're extremely proud of her. i also want to call out the results of republican mark wayne, with the race in the u.s. senate, becoming the first senate. so it's just been awesome to see the results roll in. i've been watching it on indian country today, as we've been doing election night coverage. with there being 90 candidates from whether it's state

politics, or national politics, in indian country, there's a lot of implications in terms of rule america, and how that plays out in terms of the politics we're watching whether gun control and climate change. so know that indian country has a strong voice and it's also a very bipartisan voice when it comes to alaska, even the senate seat that is, of course, going to go republican, those are very different value systems, depending on whether it's lisa murkowski or her opponent who gets the seat. so it just shows when it comes to indigenous politics, it just really depends on which kind of person, not visibility, the party itself gets electeded. >> thank you to the three of you. maria and rashad and alissa london, thank you for your time. stay with us, we're going to

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call, 92%, the incumbent laura kelly has a 47,000 vote lead over derek smith. we're calling this too close to call. we see where laura kelly's strength is coming, from all the urban centers, kansas, lawrence, topeka and wichita. i want to go back to the proposal we had earlier in the summer, the constitutional right to abortion which is in the kansas state constitution, and there was a movement to get it moved. it's actually a fairly confusing ballot question. so, the no, is actually the abortion rights side and it prevailed fairly well. 49% to 41%, you see the centers in which that question won, i'm going to overlay that with the governor's race, you will see they're not dissimilar. they're largely and kansas urban centers with the proposition it

got support from people otherwise republican, saying let's not take away. that's the overlay of what's going on. right now, the kansas governor election is too close to call. at 14912 votes vating laura kelly and derek schmidt, we're going to look at that very closely over the course of the next -- obviously, how long it takes to get those number us in. you were making a point, alicia, earlier, part of the reason, you can't compare all of these abortion referendum questions, but they've all been successful since kansas. and tonight there are two we haven't got final numbers on in montana and in kentucky but they were trending towards the abortion rights side prevailing. the issue in kansas was, it was a right that existed. so there may be people who don't feel strongly about abortion rights who were talking, as you said, more about government overreach. >> right.

and i think that's interesting when you see places where people came, they showed up. they voted for a republican candidate. and they still, you know, voted whichever way you would consider to be pro-choice. >> you can't tell from the question, by the way. >> right. pro-access, pro-reproductive health care. it gives me back to the question that we've been discussing over and over again which is should republicans gain control of the house, it is a number we've been watching all night, what will their governing agenda look like? and what from tonight will they be processing as a message from voters about what it is that they expected? remember, we have the counter of the actual conversation, right, what would have happened if votes did not punish republicans for the overturn of roe? would they take that as the ability to do whatever they wanted out of a variety of social issues? now, what we're seeing, the voters came out in some cases,

voted for republicans but still said these positions go too far. will republicans metabolize that as a message from voters on what they can and cannot do? remember, we focused on abortion but there were a number of proposition ballots across the state, specifically in arizona, prop 308, the question whether or not dreamers should be able to receive in-state tuition in the state of arizona. interestingly again, we're watching for arizona, looking for those numbers, a question of whether or not that thro drove s out in favor of one party to the other. >> yeah. we're still watching the abortion questions. we'll keep you updated on that particularly montana. we'll take a quick break. our coverage continues on the other side. n the other side trying to control my asthma felt anything but normal. ♪ ♪

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that's our thing. ♪ ♪ ♪ hit it!♪ ♪it takes two to make a thing go right♪ ♪it takes two to make it outta sight♪ ♪one, two, get loose now! it takes two to make a-♪ get double rewards points this fall. book now at bestwestern.com. ♪♪ all right. so the senate race in georgia is most likely headed to a runoff with neither candidate securing more than 50% of the vote. and earlier in the night, democratic candidate for governor stacey abrams conceded to incumbent brian kemp. joining me now is greg blumstein, msnbc political contributor, political reporter for the "atlanta journal-constitution." and author of "flipped." greg, it's great to see you again, thank you so much for

getting up early with us. here we go again, all eyes on georgia. obviously, it's not called. it's still early, could potentially be going to a runoff, early indications. but it is probably going to be the deciding state in who gets control of the senate. what is your big takeaway from the night? >> well, a significant number of split ticket voters split their ticket between kemp and raphael warnock. that's a runoff. he's going to try to get the middle of the road voters, swing voters, still there for herschel walker and the big question is will that be for control of the senate that would change the ball game. this is for 52% of the controlled senate, it's a race. a lot of those skeptical republican voters might stay home or might vote for warnock. but if this is one against for control of the u.s. senate like it was just a year ago in georgia when warnock and jon

ossoff flipped the seat, it's basically where you'll have hundreds of millions of dollars pumped into georgia in the next few weeks for battle of control of congress. >> greg, how much were you surprised about how well raphael warnock -- excuse me, herschel walker is doing, up against raphael warnock? is this because of brian kemp, or is this because of herschel walker and what's at stake in the senate? >> i think it's because of raphael warnock. and i say that, you're in an environment where every other statewide democrat lost and lost fairly badly. and warnock steered clear of joe biden. he tried to appeal to those independent voters. i think that was one of the big differences. of course, herschel walker's vulnerabilities, his weaknesses, played into that as well. but i think the question should be more why did raphael warnock, why is he still competitive in the race, where stacey abrams,

45%, 46% of the vote, lost by 48 points and herschel walker is ahead. >> hey, greg, it's jonathan capehart, let's get talking about stacey abrams. why didn't she do as well as a lot of people either thought or hoped? >> yeah, well, i mean, down here the polls showed her significantly behind governor kemp for a while so this was not a shock at all. there's a couple reasons, one is he had a record to run on. you know, a lot of people liked that. a lot of people didn't like it. but he could run on that record where he was only able to run on promises and she made a lot of them. but he could point to, he made very second term promprom joe biden's support, lower than 41%. kemp could say the biden-abrams agenda, economy, washington. that had a factor as well. the third thing is the economy. up know, keep going back to it,

but governor kemp could point to what he did to help insulate georgians from economic turmoil. talking about tax rebates, suspending the gas tax. reopening the state's economy early in the pandemic. all things that polled popularly at the center of his campaign agenda and you could point to stacey abrams being opposed through some of those elements. those factors wrapped together. >> greg blustein from the "atlantic journal constitution" always a pleasure. good to see you. >> you, too, thank you. quick take away from georgia, guys, not just split ticket. donald trump, two guys that defied you, stood up to you saying not a part of your big lie both won and both won convincingly. a lot more to talk about. we'll be right back. ht back. get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is.

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all right. our coverage of the midterm elections actually never going to end but will end for us for a little while. before i go, though, we have had one an evening. not exactly what everybody thought it was going to be. start with you. what are you thinking now, other than how soon you can get to bed? you're coming back very soon. >> read my mind. so crazy. you know, i never wanted to talk about the odds of these elections without talking about the stakes. they're crystal clear.

this was about democracy a woman's rise to choose, about future of this country and our economy. clear to voters. right? they sort of were able to cut through all of the noise and send a really clear message about what was important to them, and so to me this was a really, a bolstering night in terms of being reminded that the people are paying attention. they understood the stakes and showed up and voted. >> and jonathan, you had a similar thought, that your whole demeanor was different than you thought it was going to be? yeah. we come into these things thinking we know what's going to happen even though i said letson humble what we're about to find out, but what's been thrilling for mewatching all this, seeing all this, american people are infinitely smarter than we give them credit for. able to walk and chew gum, care about inflation but also care

about a family member's right to reproductive health care, and then back to my nerdy point, only have a few seconds left for me. the idea that the republicans have not run away with the house majority and possibility that whoever the republican leader, will only have a two-seat majority means that even if democrats are in the minority they will still wield and incredible amount of power. >> and at the moment projections are still for 220 democratic seats. sorry. 220 republican seats, 215 democratic seats. plus or minus 10. >> for me a big takeaway. if you are a trump believer, believed in your core in donald trump and the big lie, you lost today and you lost big in some of the biggest races. forget congressional seats people don't necessarily know about. if you were a doug mastriano, running in michigan.

if you were nip of the big names that trump really leaned into, you lost. i think the big takeaway today, americans were able to say we're done with that. we do not want that to linger in our our politics. it's toxic. not something we necessarily want and put the brakes on it. i think you're seeing it open within the republican party having, to have a little soul-searching moment. how long you will let this be your tox isic force in your party? >> yes, about control of these bodies. it issals a about whether or not the republican party is finally ready to untengal itself from donald trump. >> we'll remind you, though, there are two states in which those election deniers are not settled. wisconsin one's them. ron johnson. people don't necessarily identify being election deniers, he fully is and arizona. a matter not settled.

everybody returning on republican ticket in arizona is one of them. not going to leave the topic until it's done. not done for a few days. we will not know at end of today whether the house and senate are controlled by republicans or democrats. but we thank you for being with us, and thank you to my friends jonathan capehart, amanda and now night, now morning in america. do not move because "morning joe" breaking down election results and discuss what it all means for the future of our country. that begins right now. ♪♪