everybody returning on republican ticket in arizona is one of them. not going to leave the topic until it's done. not done for a few days. we will not know at end of today whether the house and senate are controlled by republicans or democrats. but we thank you for being with us, and thank you to my friends jonathan capehart, amanda and now night, now morning in america. do not move because "morning joe" breaking down election results and discuss what it all means for the future of our country. that begins right now. ♪♪

[ applause ] it is -- >> wow. >> the morning after the election. >> wow. holy cow. >> welcome, everybody. our live audience, election, control of congress, still hangs in the balance. the big news overnight. >> hold on a second. >> wait, wait. >> no. republicans, historically, i don't know if you know this or not but i follow politics. >> right. >> historically up 140, 50, 60, 70 seats, right? talked about this yesterday. thinking, like -- 40, 50, 60. so -- kevin mccarthy is in charge this morning. right? >> yes. yeah, okay. >> hey, kevin mccarthy -- >> how many speeches did he give. >> kevin mccarthy, meet liz

truss. >> and liz cheney. [ applause ] >> the big wins overnight. john fetterman helps democrats flip the state of pennsylvania. [ applause ] the only -- so far, other key senate races remain uncalled. georgia and wisconsin, too close to call. arizona, nevada and alaska, too early to call. democrats currently lead the count 48 seats to 47's. >> wait, wait a second. >> i know. >> wait a second. >> what happened. wait. >> i don't understand. michael steele, you were -- a party -- >> i did. >> and elections. i mean, i'm here, because of an off-year election. that year, people like me had, david. elections, i'm serious. off-year elections. serious. always a wave. a wave in '82. a wave in '86 against reagan.

a wave against barack obama. there's a wave -- well, i don't understand this. democrats are still -- they still have a chance of holding on to the senate? >> this wasn't even a good ripple. i mean, this -- >> come on. not a red wave. >> it's no the a red wave. >> that's it! >> spotting -- in some corners about the best you can get. >> let's spray paint. all we're talking about. >> yeah. >> hey, donald trump -- hey, donald trump -- >> he doesn't watch. >> meet boris johnson. i mean -- there was, really -- there was a coronation last night, probably as grand as king charles iii's coronation will be in the spring and ron desantis in florida. massive victory down there. right? unfortunately, donald trump lost the rest of america. now, i'm not going to say this

is the end of donald trump, but a lot of republicans this morning waking up going, wait a second. ron desantis is winning miami-dade outright and winning 20 percentage points, in the state historically, well, donald trump is tweeting cheering against republicans. i don't think last night was a good win for donald. >> a bad win for himmed. be and's lindsey graham on nbc last night saying, whew. this did not go the way we thought it would go. not a red wave. that's lindsey graham saying that. that's one thing. governors races people were concerned about, new york -- kathy hochul held on here. wisconsin -- [ applause ] election deniers lost there. election denialism on the ballot and lost time and time again. to your point ron desantis winning by almost 20 points in florida remaking the map. remaking the obama coalition. winning, flipping by 20 points from a couple years ago a, latino voters. would appear this morning this

is ron desantis's party and not donald trump's. >> yes. it's not donald trump's. i mean, everything trump touches politically dies. >> yes. >> he lost in '17. local races. >> negative touch. >> lost in '18. he lost governorships in the south in '19. lost in '20, and now, of course, '22 just a massive loss. i want to talk about something i didn't hear enough about last night, and that is -- that is how the final polls were showing that dobbs, overturning of a woman's right. >> didn't matter. >> didn't matter. >> i mean, david plouffe and others a lot smarter than me will always say, you don't know exactly who the electorate's going to be and why we shouldn't kick pollsters around. you never know what populists are going to go to the polls and -- but last night, early on, you started seeing -- what did voters today think were most

important issues? abortion, what? those were the people pollsters didn't reach. i didn't hear that enough last night. dobbs made a huge difference, and i think every democrat should send a pie to a member of the federalist society that they know, because the federalist society elected -- >> elected -- to leonard. send cookies to the supreme court. >> seriously. >> yeah. >> this was the quiet revolution, the silent majority, even in states like kentucky. >> yes. we do not know in kentucky a state where joe biden was walloped in 2020 whether or not they're going to protect a woman's right to choose. that is amazing. >> hello. >> it was a huge night for abortion rights across the country. i mean, women voted in droves. in a number of states, that right is now protected. in member states that are

unexpected and drove a number of people to victory. yes, what people said a few weeks ago. didn't matter. fading's turns out wasn't right. >> and number one issue in pennsylvania, abortion. number one for john fetterman and josh shapiro who won big. smart mind what happens from here and what wered last night, but independents, fascinating number there. in off-year elections, outparty loses independence by wide martianens. early on here this morning seeing democrats winning by a couple points holding on to those votes. >> the lesson is, there are more conservatives in every swing district and swing state than liberals. math is simple. democrats have to do at least enough on turnout. they have to win the middle of the electorate everywhere. and able to do that last night if largely because of abortion. the other thing voters under 30. underrepresented at polls. democracy can at stake, january

21st have a democracy, thank young people who turned out to protect the enterprise. >> talk to democrats. they would say these are the states most worried about. all right? wisconsin. a lot of democrats were saying this summer, not able to hold on. michigan. whitmer in a fight for her life against somebody who said a 14-year-old girl getting raped by her uncle was a perfect reason to not let her have an abortion, and then pennsylvania. i mean -- look at those three states, and how they're going to be run in '24. that sweet, a lot of people may not talk about it this morning, is massive. >> the big difference -- first of all tony evers beat his margin. nobody thought he would win and beat his 2018 rival. >> and stop a second. in an environment, worse inflation since 1982, and an

economy that's reeling and moving towards a recession. a stock market that's crashing, and, yes, crime. people feeling less comfortable in cities than ever before, and that's the environment democrats won in. >> they did. now all the states you mentioned, joe, what's really important, i think, is that that could have gone in direction of election deniers. people who did not want the will of the public to determine who they would elect. being the secretary of state, or the governor, or determining how people could vote. how easily they could vote, and whether or not they would certify the outcome in 20's 24. that was potentially headed in that direction, and all of those states, and victory, democracy won out, good news. >> still counting votes in this election, but my mind, of course, goes to the next election. the other thing. you mentioned how tough the economy is. listen, i hope democrats find a way forward in florida. we've got to put that back in play eventually. really hard now. democrats, to win electoral

college have to win the blue wall. these three races, those three states, showed it's still intact, even in this environment. really important for the future of the country. >> wow. >> three big losers, again, donald -- >> yeah. they all begin with the letter "d." >> dobbs. right? and election deniers. and this tweeted, hilliard -- helpful. don't run against democracy in america. you -- will -- lose. tonight, the candidates who refused to say certifying biden's 2020 election all lost. had it on my phone and took it off the screen. put it on my phone again. tim michels, wisconsin. eh. tudor dixon, michigan. eh. doug mastriano, pennsylvania. oh, my god, doug, just, please, go home. all right? watch netflix a couple of months. it's bad.

darin bailey, illinois. down, dan cox, maryland, crushed, lee zeldin, beat bien, kari lake right now, oh, my got -- >> kari is going to whine a lot today. >> ah -- ah -- >> i mean, election deniers got pounded last night. >> so what does that say about the -- the american people writ large, specifically the people on the front lines of those votes in those states? i think a lot of question whether or not they will stand on that wall for democracy, and, you know, succumb to the fancy rhetoric and the glossy look that a kari lake would have, and they didn't. they said, no. we are better than this. we know what happened in 2020. and i think the idea of just going further into the crazy, folks are like, i can't. i can't. i think folks are looking for, can we just stop doing stupid? can we just stop pretending this

stuff is real and focus -- and why that's important, joe, to your point about governors. everyone focuses on federal elections and congress. it's the governors' races where the people are closest to those candidates, and they're much more in the mix in terms of the narrative, and that, to me, says a lot with all of those -- those gubernatorial election deniers go down and tells me the american people are a lot more engaged than we have given them credit the for and proven in last polling we did in nbc. democracy was the one one issue going into the election. >> go to steve kornacki in a minute. kelly's looking good for the moment against blake masters. another election denying. don bulldock lost. trying to say reviewed the evidence. maybe the election was good. so he loses to maggie hassan in a race democrats were worried

about. donald trump trashes him after the race said you didn't deny the election enough. why you lost. all twisted in knots over this. another one. lauren bober in colorado. [ applause ] and marjorie taylor greene and other conspiracy theorists. hasn't lost yet. >> said if jesus had an ar-15. >> she's in a fight and trailing now. >> and you look at these things. just -- you bringing up new hampshire reminds me of we were all hearing this yesterday morning. what we were hearing yesterday morning, despite the that can't doesn't feel like a wave. guys, you were hearing. republicans saying, we think we'll win new hampshire. >> yeah. >> got a good shot at colorado. we think we're going to win new york. we think we're going to win washington state. >> hmm. >> those races weren't close. >> nope. >> like michael bennett, like,

that guy could have stayed in bed the last couple of months, he won so easily. >> and tiffany smiley, the washington senate candidate, supposed to be a huge rising star for republicans. never even saw her face on television. at least not most stations. the other thing i think taking away from last night, coming into this election, everybody thought the economy being number one on voters' minds meant that is very bad for democrats. that is not how it played out. >> right. >> it may be that actually voters care, american people care about the economy, and maybe like democrats' plan better when picking. that is a different takeaway than what -- [ applause ] >> i think the bigger problem, actually is, that the republicans just don't have a plan. they bitch and whine but don't have the a plan. >> something's better than nothing. >> bimped about obamacare in 12

years and never came forward with a comprehensive plan of their own and no plan for inflation. i'm sure a lot of americans thinking, it's horrible. maybe i need to go republican. you get closer and closer and go, wait a second. they haven't told me a single thing they're going to do. >> such a deeply flawed brand. i mean, this was a huge opportunity for them because of the tough environment, right? i think a lot of voters, prices too high. can't go with these folks. trump presided in the white house over a catastrophic '18 loss. he is architect of this loss and i think fascinating in days to come how many republicans are actually able to speak publicly. will they speak publicly saying we have to be careful assuming this guy is our nominee. 37% approval rating it is catastrophic. mitch mcconnell was right when he said a few months ago. remember? can equality matter?

>> case in point. pennsylvania. pat toomey decides i don't want any part of this republican party anymore. i don't want to bend the no e to donald trump. i'm out. getting out of politics. run out a guy who could have run into his seat. who do they bring in? donald trump puts his hand on doctor oz who lives in new jersey and loses the race. yes, donald trump the architect in that state and many others. >> david mccormick -- >> would have done well. there are states we're still waiting to see what happens. bring in nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki at the big board. 's in some states there -- i think -- [ applause ] -- yeah. we love him. steve, in some states i feel not sure if herschel should fly the plane? >> take you through where things stand in the battle for the senate. came in yesterday 50/50, good

enough for democrats to control it with kamala harris. in pennsylvania democratic gain. that means rest of the math, three democratic, georgia, arizona, nevada, and one republican-held seat, wisconsin. all uncalled. lead for ron johnson republican in wisconsin sits north of 30,000 votes. there are some democratic votes still to come our milwaukee, madison, republican votes to come from elsewhere. so just for the sake of argument, if you say that johnson hangs on there, if he doesn't, ball game for the senate. but if you say johnson hangs on for sake of argument, it's leaving georgia, arizona, nevada and question of can republicans win two out of those three? what they would need to get the senate. otherwise, democrats hold it. look where those three stand this morning. here we are in georgia. raphael warnock, 18,000 vote advantage over herschel walker. there are still votes to come in. about 96% of the estimated vote.

our decision desk has not touched this or called this. i say, i could say the secretary of state's office in georgia last night publicly tweeted that they are preparing for a run offin this race, because, again, nobody gets to 50%. goes to a runoff. that's december 6th. very possible neither warnock nor walker finish with 50. this goes to a runoff to be determined on december 6th. then take a look at arizona. talking about this, big development overnight in the biggest county of the state, which is maricopa county. that appears to have completed counting. all of its same-day vote. watching these votes as they came in last night initially mark kelly in maricopa, advantage of north of 20 points. now fallen to 8 points. effect of having all of that same-day vote counted in. what remains in mayor koepka

koepka -- maricopa county, release in batches there. this is critical, i think. the lead mark kelly has -- excuse me. lead mark kelly has state-wide, 107,000. okay. now, in 2020 presidential election, when turnout was higher, when we reached this comparable point overnight maricopa, same-day, advantage joe biden had 110,000 votes. okay? came down about 100,000. so that -- that is in a higher turnout atmosphere, though. given turnout is down, and kelly's lead sitting close to 110,000 as well i think, again, no characterization from our decision desk, a path democrats are feeling optimistic about and makes a difference between the senate race. 107,000 vote lead for the democrat there, in the governor's race, katie hobbs going through same set of votes we just talked about, ahead by 70,000 fewer almost.

that is prime striking distance for kari lake with vote still to be counted. at least potentially. a story in the next couple days. based what we saw in 2020, that final vote that was counted out was republican friendly. were that republican friendly again, lake might be in good position, but masters falling short. a big question. does's that look different than 2020. arizona fails to get it, absolutely need nevada. call up the senate race again. development overno it in the senate race is adam laxalt actually took the lead in the count over catherine cortez masto. left to be counted in nevada, primarily two things here. late arriving, like dropped off day of, drop box vote, in clark county and washoe county. trying to get a handle exactly how many ballots that means to

be counted in those places. nudge for cortez masto to overcome a race? notice difference between the two of those. essentially what we're looking at, as governor, we're looking at here is this. let me call this up. in johnson hangs on and this goes to a runoff. for sake of argument, democrats hang on to the senate seat in arizona, sake of argument, laxalt hangs on in nevada, what that would add up to is 50 republican, 49 democrat. and a runoff in georgia that would determine control of the senate on december 6th. conversely, cortez masto able to in remaining votes overtake and democrats would have control of

the senate no matter what. i think a lot is resting on understanding exactly what that remaining vote is in nevada and if indeed there is enough there for cortez masto to overcome laxalt and give democrats an overall win there. >> i'm curious. john ralston talked he believes there were a lot of melon votes still coming in in clark county. break 2-1 for cortez masto, then that could put her ahead. do we know? are there 100,000 mall-in-votes in clark county still outstanding? >> what we're trying to get ahold of. clark and to a lesser degree not insignificant washington county where reno is. those two counties are 90% of the state. a question we're trying to get a handle on. exactly how many outstanding ballots are there, and then that question, same question we have in arizona is, are they going to break? in arizona we found in 2020 was

there was a big difference in terms of the votes, the early votes, mail votes dropped off early on versus the ones dropped off last minute. ones dropped off last minute much more republican in character than ones returned early. that's why trump made up a lot of ground in the final days of the vote count in arizona in 2020. not enough to win the state but enough to make it close. there's a question there in arizona and i think in nevada as well what the character, political character of the vote would be. we're trying to figure that out. certainly enough for cortez masto to overtake laxalt. he did have a pretty good overnight in terms of putting himself in contention here. biggest wild card here. opportunity, a clear opportunity for democrats i think right now. excuse me, for republicans in nevada than there is in arizona for their senate candidate to get that pick off. they're going to need to get one of those two, and then need to force georgia into a runoff and win georgia.

that would be republican path to senate control right now. and's anything short of that could still have a georgia runoff but it wouldn't matter. democrats would have the senate. >> all right. steve, thank you. we'll a break this down through the four hours of "morning joe." steve kornacki, back later this morning. >> thank you. [ applause ] >> and votes continue to pour in. >> and so -- david, we've been warning viewers for the past couple days, if it comes down to arizona and nevada to just sit back and relax because they count two votes, take a break for lunch. have a ham sandwich. come back, count one more vote and then leave. always slow in arizona and nevada. i mean, why? do you know? >> it's just, i think, huge influx of mailed ballots. california another place. key house races. those may take a couple weeks to count ununtil there's a result. a lot of people drop off mail ballots at the very end. those kind of add up. yeah. listening to nevada, i think there is a path there.

and the question is washoe county, could turn blue but super close. nevada is interesting from a 2024 perspective. probably the state biden won i'm most concerned about. a place a lot of work has to get down to get those six electoral votes feeling more confident heading into 2024. >> and hearing for weeks nevada was gone. >> yeah. i know. >> nobody expected it to be this competitive. >> so also ahead this morning, veteran democratic strategist james carville will join us with his takeaways from last night's elections. plus, former congressman carlos is with us who predicted last night but we're seeing beginning of the end of maga. and take a look at tim ryan's concession speech and why he called it a privilege to concede the raid to j.d. vance. and former president trump's

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you want to flip it. now, a privilege, as someone who was the democratic nominee, i have the privilege to concede this ways to j.d. vance, because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election, you concede, and you -- respect -- [ applause ] -- you respect the will of the people.

right? we can't have a system where if you win, it's a legitimate election, and if you lose, someone stole it. that is not how we can move forward in the united states. [ applause ] >> congressman tim ryan conceding the race, lost to republican j.d. vance in a hard-fought race. that should be an extraordinary act but in these times it's an extraordinary act and important act. said it was a privilege to lose to a guy that he feels like he would have been better to represent the state of ohio but this is the way it works. fought for a year and a half and lost. concede the race and move on. >> yeah. no. you're right. by the way, i think this is a guy who ran a great race. >> incredible race. >> ran as good a race as you can. always a big believe werer usually the better political athlete wins. that didn't happen here. j.d. vance, and i'm not piling on this morning, but talked about it before. gop don't-ers, activists, say he

was the laziest worst would candidate they've ever seen. insult donors at roundtable meetings, petulant, lazy. didn't like campaigning, and why is this importanten to bring up? it's important to bring up, because it shows that florida and ohio are two states democrats are going to have to think long and hard about before investing a dime their in '24. they can rebuild the infrastructure, but right now, texas, ohio and florida, please -- democrats -- democrats -- it's fools' gold. all right? all right. focus on wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, georgia, arizona. 270 -- but they always say, you know, next year, texas is going to swing -- no. let me just say, also, tim ryan ran a great race. a lot of people like piling on

beto. beto runs great races. presidential campaign, got off to a tough start, but his state-wide races are things to admire. he goes, he campaigns, he goes across the state, he confronts. let me tell you something, he was running uphill nonstop. >> the whole time. >> the whole time. so i have nothing but great things to say about beto. he lost. he ran a great campaign. >> same with tim ryan. >> yeah. you know what? it just -- it's not a democratic state yet. >> it's not a democratic state, and the list you gave, the only one i would carve out because i've been tracking texas since i was a state party chairman, is texas. democrats have done a very effective job of winning culture to the ground in texas. it's a process. everyone thinks that you, you turn these states overnight. you don't. you have to convince voters to go outside their comfort zone

and vote for the opposite party, when my daddy's looking at me like i'm crazy. right? i'm doing it. but they've done a good job winning mayor's races, city council races, sheriff's races slowly making that turn. i still say by the time we get to 2028, texas will be a battleground state in this country for a host of reasons. maybe not in '24. >> right. >> but the trend lines are there. florida is red. where democrats freed to recalibrate is florida. i would not say texas. >> they need to re -- from the ground up. the thing about texas that's fascinating is, of course, the dallas suburbs breaking blue. a lot of my friends i served with in the republican congress got wiped 0 ut in the suburbs of dallas. when i was there, those were the safest seats. right, but i saw a "new york times" map. fascinating. throw this out to both of you guys. hearing nonstop all the

hispanics, because hispanic men love macho leaderser. they're a bad thing to the democratic party. this is historic texas, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. you look at that now. along the border, it's blue this year. it's blue. if democrats consolidate. by the way, oh, we heard, oh, the border, hispanics, got tattoos of donald trump on their chest. no. no. they held their own along the border, and they did well in dallas suburbs. that is something to build on, even though beto, who got beaten badly last night. >> look, put florida over here and when democrats have their come to jesus meeting, florida will be a big discussion point. fine. republicans will have donald trump, feels more problematic or harder, but the hispanic group across the country is not the same in every state. this notion just because in florida where the hispanic population is older. socialism doesn't really play

there, because there's a lot of first generations, second generation. >> socialism. >> exactly. it doesn't sound or feel good. >> right. >> and there's also a lot of spanish language disinformation ads run in florida primarily. other parts of the country, the hispanic vote is young, it's democratic and young. >> overwhelmingly. >> overwhelmingly in states like nevada and states -- the border, as you said. in states like arizona. this is a huge opportunity for democrats, and there's no indication it's moving towards republican across the country. >> a district flipped back, by the way. heard so much about this, that this was going to be an example of the red wave for hispanics. not even close. >> well, yeah. because i think a sense that, if there was going to be a red wave were, you would see massive non-college movement particularly among black and brown men to republicans. and i think outside of florida, there's no evidence of that at all. listen, i agree with michael. it takes a generation to turn a state from a, red state to a blue state.

blue state to red state, but texas is on that tra it trajectory. this completely changes it. >> look what happened in florida. is that a ron desantis phenomenon? a south florida phenomenon? lost miami-dade 20 points four years ago and flipped latino vote by 20 points in this favor. >> i don't think we've ever seen a big american county move that quickly. it's a massive change. i don't think it's desantis. i think he's got strength down there, no question. so many people have moved in to texas. i think a lot of those people are republican voters. and, listen, a lot's changed. remember, when obama won florida in '12, won by 50,000 votes basically tied the cuban vote. a big change there. but desantis has a story to tell. i think the story he and his team will tell republicans is look what happened in the oasis of florida. i can do that for the country.

a lot a b.s. but a lot of stories to tell. donald trump licking wounds in mar-a-lago. >> can comes down to numbers too too, willie. talking about all the people that moved into florida, during covid, pre and post-covid. in 2018 when desantis almost lost, democrats had about a 250,000 registration advantage. right? this election, republicans for the first time went ahead and didn't just go ahead by a couple votes. republicans, there are about 350,000 more republicans than democrats. like a 500,000 it 600,000 vote registration swing. so just all of the trend lines are massive there, and by the way, it's -- that's what makes it so hard to come back. >> true for sure and also in desantis's case, voters liked the way he handled covid.

opening schools quicker, and handled hurricane ian a couple months ago. and victory speech, a lot about a fight against wokism. move to florida if you want to live in a free society. that resonated with a lot of voters. >> yeah. >> back to the point what republicans do next. if anyone thinks there's going to be a grand meeting at the capitol hill club of republican intelligence arounden donald trump, it ain't happening. the reality of it is, despite the losses, and in some cases massive in terms of the resources that were put into winning those races, donald trump still has a firm grip on a lot of the gop, and his -- and his messaging and his ability to animate the base in a way, it's going to be a real test for someone like desantis beyond florida. that's the next great battle to

come. you saw the president coin the, ron desanctimonious which actually, more to come. >> more to come. >> right. so you begin to see, to your point, that the lines are going to be drawn within the gop over the next few weeks, because the 2024 presidential cycle begins tomorrow. >> some would say, if that is in fact the case and republicans still, you know, still hang tight with donald, i can tell you, a lot of democrats saying, good. because he lost in '17, in '18, lost in '19, lost in '20, and i've got to say, we'll hear a lot about this over the next couple weeks. in is no way for us to adequately explain to you just how historic last night was. >> yes. >> in an off-year election, never seen anything -- you could look at 2002. right after 9/11. look at '98 after impeachment.

those don't come close to what happens here. what happened last night has not happened in our lifetime, anden proving -- we're going to go to break but we do need to talk about this, because we have a few people in the white house that watch in the morning. >> brace yourself, sweet wouldy. >> and they bitch at me when i complain about the white house. proving what john kennedy said after bay of pigs. success has many fathers but failure is an orphan. suction has many fathers this morning and we have yet to talk about the one man everybody would have blamed if republicans had a good night, and that is joe biden. >> hmm. >> all we've heard is his low approval ratings, wanting to drag down -- >> it's true. >> he's too old. he's too out of touch. he's too unpopular. this is going to be a massive loss for joe biden. not even close. >> we'll talk about all of that next block. david plouffe, jen psaki, thank

you for starting us off. coming off a big win last night, the senator from colorado our guest. we're back with much more on this very special edition of "morning joe," after the election. >> we fight the woke and the legislature. we fight the woke and the schools. we fight the woke in the corporations. we will never, ever, surrender to the woke mob. florida is where woke goes to die! >> people have come here because our policies work. sleedership matters. we refuse to use polls and put our finger in the wind. leaders don't follow. they lead.

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[ applause ] 46 past the hour. welcome to a special edition of "morning joe." going over election results. >> the special this morning? >> i do. i feel like, what was our motto yesterday? put it on the mugs? a good one. all of this is wrong. >> all of this is wrong. >> yes, it was. >> our way to cover ourselves because we said you never know what's going to happen in elections. >> polls versus the exit polls. >> right. everybody was talking about how this was going to be a massive -- >> crime, crime, crime. >> republican thing. and we were saying, it just didn't feel like a wave election, because, you know, maybe we're wrong, but, claire mccaskill is here. [ applause ] claire, i was going to say -- [ applause ]

>> my dear friend who pays for his friendship every day on twitter. >> oh! eddie! [ applause ] >> eddie glaude. >> my mother, god bless her soul, god rest her soul, always said, joey, judge yourself by your enemies. poor eddie is judged by his friends with me so i appreciate your friendship. claire, listen. i don't believe in knocking pollsters because it's an impossible task trying to guess who's going to come out. and over the past couple of cycles they've underestimated right-wing populists. so we've seen polls way off. last night when i started seeing exit polls that said most important issue, and abortion was at the top and one media exit poll after yore e exit poll, wait a second. before the election down to 5%. shocked us off. down to 5%. so after the results started coming in i said, oh, my god.

these are the voters that the pollsters missed. that there was a huge surge of people who came out who said, no, no, no. you know what? take away somebody else's rights. you're not taking away mine. i mean, you've got to put dobbs and abortion at the top of the list for -- explaining a lot that happened last night. >> yeah. last night was a very bad night for donald trump, but it was a very good night for women. [ applause ] and -- you know, that old saying, "hell hath no fury"? >> yeah. >> i don't think people understand stood how it was visceral. it was, you know, women felt it in their gut. >> and i think men, too, for the women they love and care about. >> exactly. but we have grabbed back freedom. >> uh-huh. >> for the democrats, with this

issue. [ applause ] >> and, by the way, this is not a blue state issue as we saw it in kansas. >> and kentucky. >> i was going to say. and as we saw in kentucky last night. this is not a blue state issue. an issue, again, for 65% of americans, really matters. republicans, they didn't just celebrate the overturning of roe. state legislators started passing just the most extreme pieces of legislation that we saw in exit polls last night. only 9% of americans supported. >> kentucky. >> they're not going to stop, joe. a real problem for the republican party. they are going to keep pushing this. there is a segment of the republican party that this is the only motivating force in their life as it comes to the government, and they're not going to stop. >> yeah. >> they're going to keep going. they're going to go after medical abortions, because now the pill is being used way more

frequently than any other method. they're eventually going to go after ivf. i believe actually impact ivf in this country's in some states. >> yeah. >> if there is not a federal law passed that codifies roe. >> so our headline right now, eddie, says "dobbs deniers lift democrats." talk about the second, deniers. crushed last nice in governors' races. crushed. you still have arizona that's still standing out there and maybe she squeak as out a win, if she does, like one out of seven, one out of eight. election deniers proved last night, that that is a recipe for defeat. >> absolutely. another it "d" word. dobbs, deniers, donald, but who won? what won? democracy. >> hmm. >> we saw the power of -- democracy always in the hands of everyday people, joe.

in moments of crisis, depends on everyday ordinary people to step up, take on the responsible of the republic. we saw last night and shouldn't get ahead of our skis, mika's favorite phrase. shouldn't get ahead of our skis and think everything is resolved. it wasn't. there wasn't a red wave or a red tsunami, election deniers want to erode fundamental foundations of our democracy failed, failed miserably. >> we have talked. grim conversations around this set. what's that say to you, about the fact that from coast to coast, americans rose up and said, you know what? no. we kind of like our democracy the way it is. and also, exit polls last night showed, like, 80% of americans were like, yeah. i actually think that elections are fair in america. >> all right. well, it let's me know that there are americans who fundamentally believe that our way of life is a good thing.

>> right. >> but it doesn't resolve the problems we face. >> right. >> we come out of last night still deeply divided. but it seems clear to me america's decided no the to give the reins to mad men and women. >> host of "way too early," jonathan lemire with us. [ applause ] >> you're about to get on a plane be to southeast asia with the president of the united states. let's talk about what happened last night, though. by their own admission, no red wave. heard that from republicans in public last nightwho expected big numbers. talk about waves of 2010 or years like that, talking 40, 50, 60 seats. this is going to be a handful of seats and a net gain. republicans likely control house of representatives, but a small margin. what do republicans take away from this and what do democrats see from the results last night jrchlt certainly a significant disathe appointment for republicans. mood at mar-a-lago where donald trump held and election night party very, very subdued.

a lot of his hand-picked candidates gone down to defeat and also, of course, talking about this morning, ron desantis emboldened. seems might be future of the republican party. not sitting well with the other florida man in this equation. they're disappointed. yes, still may keep the house but slim margin. it stall the biden administration. nowhere near what they taught. democrats emboldened. neff is still out. reports coming in, votes still counted. real close. if dems hang on keep arizona looking good, then they'll have control of the senate even without potential -- >> and supreme court selections, absolutely critical. >> absolutely. keep the senate, you can confirm your judges. you can get your cabinet members confirmed and, yes. scotus nomination opens up, vacancy, do that, too. especially keep the senate, a

big winner, steps on to the flight to air force one a couple of summits with a pep in his step and talk that he might not do the traditional day after midterm news conference. wouldn't surprise me -- i wouldn't be surprised. >> adviser close to biden tells nbc news the president and allies believe results are clearly better than they could have been and tweeted a photo congratulating democratic winners. joe, one of the things in the weeks leading up to this election, and claire might agree, concerned about the performance of some democratic candidates. >> right. >> and we still are, but it does show that voters, they decided to participate in this as well, in a big way when it comes to democracy. when it comes to, you know what? i'm going to believe in this election. >> yeah. >> and i'm going to believe in our election process and i'm going to participate in this democracy, because this is our country. >> look at pennsylvania, claire. we all saw the fetterman/oz

debate and fetterman, i'll say it again, clearly challenged. there was a -- the guy obviously, his communication was impaired, and -- >> he showed up. >> and he showed up and i think got a lot of points for that. >> yeah. >> in a situation, i'm sure, was nervous, probably made his condition worse, and that's really the last we saw, but you see clips on local pittsburgh stations and philly stations of him rallying the last week. big, booming voice. confidence. joking. that's what voters in pennsylvania saw. a very strong, very connected john fetterman. kind of made the difference in the end. >> it did. you know, john fetterman was the essence of authenticity. >> yeah. >> comfortable in his own skin. comfortable, hey, i wear a hoodie and shorts. i'm going to wear a hoodie and shorts. deal with it. >> wait.

please. don't tell my kids that. >> i'm telling you. >> just kidding. >> and the meanwhile, got mr. crude tay, saturday before the election didn't even know the steelers had a bye week. that is political malpractice in pennsylvania and shows he is not a pennsylvanian. >> no. that is, we talked about it. that's like martha coakley, like mrs. pronouncing a few red sox names and saying, been to fenway once. i'm not sure. is that an open market? by the way, massachusetts. first woman governor last night. >> yes. [ applause ] >> pick up for dems there. you're right. we joked about the fenway park thing and steelers bye week but it reinforced perception he was not of pennsylvania. >> right. >> that he was from somewhere else and didn't understand what pennsylvanians care about. we know in the keystone state,

steelers/eagles, first and second. every other matter after that. showed oz wasn't one of them and fetterman proved the down stretch he was. >> definitely. >> one last point. talking about donald trump, not happy with what happened last night especially with ron desantis. feeling yet, of ron desantis if he did run i will tell you things about him that will not be very flattering. i know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who's really running his campaign. donald trump is very worried about ron desantis. >> scared of ron desantis. >> really needs some -- >> a coronation last night. you can't overstate how massive desantis' victory was and also can't overstate the contrast between ron desantis' night last night and donald trump's. yet a guy who -- like had a historic victory and with donald trump. not saying this being glib. you're the guy that lost yet again. this guy just keeps losing.

>> and flailing on social media. criticizing candidates he previously backed because they lost. trying to absolve himself of any responsibility. >> eddie glaude jr., claire mccaskill, jonathan lemire. thank you very much. still ahead on this very special broadcast of "morning joe" we're going to bring in bob woodward, eugene robinson and jon meacham plus a live report from florida where republicans captured every state-wide office yesterday, and also go live to arizona where the race for u.s. senate is still too early to call, and the republican nominee trailing in a tight race for governor is making claim of fraud. who's surprised? >> wow. >> we'll be right back. harvey denies any allegation of assault. but he is aware of complaints about his treatment of women and he is working on that.

do you want to expand on that? we have decades of accusations of harassment, assault. weinstein, knows what we're doing. every call you make is being recorded. this is bigger than weinstein. this is about the system, protecting abusers. this is all going to come out. when a truck hit my car, the insurance company wasn't fair. i didid't t kn whahatmy c caswa, so i called the barnes firm. i'm rich barnes. it's hard for people to k how much their accident case is worth.h barnes. t ouour juryry aorneneys hehelpou

the insurance company getenwasn't fair.ity y cablele. i didn't know what my case was worth, so i called the barnes firm. llll theararnes rmrm now the best result possible. ♪ call one eight hundred, eight million ♪ when all the ballots are counted, we believe we will win this race. [ applause ] >> never expected we were going to turn these red counties blue, but we did what we needed to do -- and we had that conversation across every one of those counties. [ cheers and applause ]

and tonight that's why -- i'll be the next u.s. senator from pennsylvania! >> tonight you, the good people of pennsylvania, you won. opportunity won. a woman's right to choose won! [ cheers ] >> whether you voted for me or not the thing that i programs to do is go to the united states senate and fight every single day for the people of ohio. thanks to you we get an opportunity to do just that. >> i have the privilege to concede this race to j.d. vance, because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election, you concede. >> we had a big day today and don't let those cheateders and crooks think anything different. don't let them put doubt in you. >> as you all know, things did not quite turn out the way we had hoped, but that's all right.

>> gosh, it's great to be here gathered in the red county of miami-dade. [ cheers ] >> we will never, ever surrender to the woke mob. florida is where woke goes to die! >> i'm not going to, you know -- declare victory until all the numbers are in, but i just want to give you guys the sense that this race is over. you know? [ applause ] >> our state has experienced one soul-crushing crisis after another over the past few years, but even during these trying times, the fighting spirit of georgia has prevailed. >> tonight we stop stacey and save georgia. [ applause ] >> hanging in there a little bit longer, because something good takes a while for it to get better. >> whether it's later tonight or tomorrow or four weeks from now, we will hear from the people of

georgia. [ applause ] that georgia race is still too close to call. >> it is. >> i have to ask, willie, who does lighting for herschel, because, straight up from the floor -- >> come on. it's the jimmy fallon flashlight. >> from the people who brought you the "blare witch project". >> the saddest of all we showed, j.d. vance. he has to go work now. >> i know! he has to do it. >> he did not expect to work. >> i was going to say, also donald trump. >> yeah. >> and anyone who denies elections. >> yeah. >> it was a -- a very bad night, but mike barnicle, just -- >> mike barnicle's here -- [ applause ] >> just history made last night. >> yes. yes. >> you -- you -- republicans should have picked up at least 40 seats democrats picked up in 2018. should be plus three, plus four in the senate races. they -- they just lost coast to

coast expect for florida, ron desantis won in florida and that's a massive loss for donald trump. >> never, ever underestimate the american people. by the millions -- [ applause ] -- this pageant of democracy we have, this magical day where people of all casts, all incomes, all races, all genders come out and vote. they stand in line for hours sometimes to vote. and yesterday they voted, and they walked in and a huge number of them looked at the ballot it, forgot about the pollsters, forgot about what we talk about each and every morning, and they said, oh. i could vote for crazy, or i could vote for normal. and they checked the normal box. >> yeah. >> that's why we're here today, and one more thing, please, if you could allow me just to say, the star of last night, to my mind, was tim ryan. >> tim ryan!

yes. >> tim ryan. [ applause ] >> tim ryan. >> yes. >> i wrote a column two years ago called "crazy never wins" talked about my dad and how my dad was a rock-solid republican but all the crazies started early in the primary, my dad, we're not going to do that. we've lost our way over the past five, six years, because crazy has won. at least one election, and then lost a lot, but still, still impacting the debate. you know, mike, you talked about people having that choice. we bring up brokaw all the time saying why don't we wait for the american people to make the decision? one of my favorite books is "making president 1960" and teddy white begins with this beautiful. >> hmm. >> beautiful scene in new hampshire, and sometimes when i read it i go, you know, is this fiction? is this -- is this still reality?

>> hmm. >> on a night like last night shows you, it still is. that the american people have the last say, and sometimes they go in a completely different direction than, than all professionals say they will. >> yes, they do. >> and think about the tide that they were swimming against. the tide we've talked about. the tide that's in the newing each and every day. the economy. you know. >> inflation. >> no democrat will be able to swim through the tide of the incoming economy, the recession they think is approaching, inflation, cost of bread and milk of gasoline, but guess what? they did. they did. >> by the way, democracy and constitutional rights ended up being more important than pocketbook issues. it's not always the economy, stupid. >> it's so interesting how the exit polls looked really different than the polls we were all talking about at this time

this morning. joe up all night. were you? >> not all night, but joe has experienced. >> oh, pace yourself, scarbrough. >> studio 54 -- >> all-nighters, talking politics, go bianca on the white horse. >> andy, everybody was down there. >> barnicle was there. >> okay. so georgia was one of the reasons. >> no cash -- i'm sorry, mika. >> are you ready? are you punchy? just one second. >> yes, ma'am the. >> we'll frame everything out. as i said, the reasons why we still don't know balance of power. georgia is one of them. and do you know that democrats exceeded expectations by far. here is a look at the senate at this hour. so far democrats have flipped pennsylvania with a win by john

fetterman over republican mehmet oz. it's the only pick-up on the board from either party so far. >> and dr. oz did his show from this studio. >> he did. it failed. >> and magic beans -- >> might help your digestion. might find a model of a stomach or something. all fake. claire calmed him out in front of congress for lying to his viewers. >> yeah. >> right now it's democrats. 48 seats. republicans 47. georgia and wisconsin, too close to call at this hour. arizona and nevada, too early to call at this hour, and in the house, while nbc news cannot project a party winner, the decision desk released this estimate showing republicans with 220 seats and democrats with 215 is a plus or minus 10. meaning either party could still win. right now democrats flipped 5 seats. republicans flipped 11. that's a net gain of 8 for

republicans so far. republicans needed to put 5 seats to gain control, but with votes still out in several competitive races, nbc news has not yet been able to make a definitive call. >> and mika, for context why democrats are celebrating despite losing the house, average last 90 years or so, out party loses 28 out seats. add inflation to that. 8%. president with approval numbers low 40s. the expectation was a huge loss and absolutely did not happen last night. >> we've been talking about it this morning. the big reasons for the red wave that wasn't. dobbs deniers and the donald. they all looked at -- lifted democrats. y abortion was a massive difference. overturning roe v. wade much bigger than polls suggested.

election deniers returning in key races across the country, for the most part, lost big. and donald trump once again, i mean, come on, republicans. seriously. please stop putting your hand on the hot stove! it hurts. it hurts. donald trump once again draggeded your -- party -- down -- to -- defeat. [ laughter ] do i -- have -- to -- speak -- more -- slowly for you to understand? he lost -- the -- house -- for -- you. he lost -- the -- senate -- for -- you. he -- lost -- the -- white house -- for you. he was the first president since herbert hoover to lose all three! in one term. he lost the 2017 elections for

you in states like virginia. he go the crushed in 2018, well, you did, actually. he just sat there blaming you. in 2019. he lost again. governors, won in states like louisiana and kentucky. democratic governors! '20, lost. now '22, once again, donald trump has made you the biggest loser. i mean, come on. when are you going to wake up? you know, republicans, all right? historically, republicans had expected to win massively. do well in swing states, and also banking on upsets in new york. we all heard it yesterday morning. all the republican ads, yeah. no. in new hampshire? maggie hassan -- no.

colorado, no we got -- no. washington state! republicans have been telling me for a month that they're going to beat patty murray. patty murray, didn't break a sweat. i mean, come on. it was -- it was a massive, massive night, was it not? and everything republicans were telling us, off-air and some on-a, wrong. >> reminds me of bit of 2012. the last campaign stop. we told barack obama he would be re-elected president. turns out about the same time mitt romney's campaign was telling him he was going to be elected president the night before. they believed a different electorate would show up and i think believed a different electorate would show up last night. we look at the different issue sets. talked about abortion, talked about elections. i think what we probably underestimated was this sort of confluence of those issues in the idea of extremism. >> right. >> really it was a force

multiplying. if you talk to any republican pollster and saw it in the exit poll last night, and asked somebody, what is your position on abortion? you asked, no exceptions in any cases lands you right about 9% of the american people. >> yeah. >> right? republican pollsters this is a terrible thing. we can't be for this. but if you aligned at something like that, denied elections, this stuff, this is the snowball that keeps getting bigger as it rolls down a hill, and to barnicle's point, all of a sudden crazy versus normal is, is a choice. if you have lined up all the statistics yesterday as we were talking about. >> right. >> consumer confidence. approval rating, right track, wrong track. all of those things, you know, you would have been like me and sort of hiding under your desk as polls closed, but i think, again, that extremism accumulated, and we saw something, i think, is pretty stunning. lots of important votes still to

be counted. >> right. >> but the fact that we're not doing what i was doing in 2010, which was reading old transcripts of presidential press conferences the day after trying to figure out what verb or word would we use to describe this. >> went with shellacking. >> shellacking. >> barack obama picked that one. yes. but they're not sitting in the white house today figuring whether it's shellacking or thumping. >> right. >> it's historic. it's historic. >> right. >> we're not grief counseling this morning. >> and i told mika all week. >> oh, my god. >> i said, mika -- >> just -- >> do we really want to have a live audience? because -- >> cancel. >> seriously. >> we were going to celebrate our 15th anniversary on this show and canned it. it's going to be too depressing. >> a big celebration. >> and -- and. >> right? >> just spent my entire life, my entire adult life being a grief counselor and i'm just not up to hugging everybody and telling

them everything's going to be okay. >> when it's not! >> when it's not. >> but it is! >> but it is. >> hugging, i'll be up front here later. [ applause ] so, you know, i mean -- you know what i'm saying? you know what i'm saying. so -- so, all right. so i'm a conservative. i'm a small sea conservative. i'm a burk. i'm a kirk. i'm an old-line conservative. and i've said this week, i believe in gravity and everybody's freaking out. oh, there's no consequence. i said consequences will come in the court. did for info wars, they are for donald trump. they'll come on wall street. we've seen it come for facebook. zuckerberg's lost over $100 billion himself this past year. massive layoffs, breaking news this morning. elon musk having to sell $4 billion of tesla stock.

gravity returns, and we saw it last night. gravity returning, too, and, again, i'm conservative. i'm not cheering against conservative candidates. i'm cheering against candidates that don't believe in democracy and seems that gravity is returning in all aspects of our public lives. >> to quote barack obama, reality has a way of catching up with you. >> yes. >> right? and it's remarkable, i think, you know, voters not just democrats but especially democrats really sent a message to their own party leadership last night, which is, we still believe in democracy. we are still showing up. and we need you to fight. and we're still in the game, and i think the defeatism among democrats that you talk about all the time is -- really misplaced. the democrats should be really focused on organizing the way

republicans are. they should be at every single town board, board of education meeting. running for every single local office, all the way up. there's no reason they shouldn't be competitive. clearly, they still are. i was were heartened a lot of bright spots across the country last night, but the enshrining of abortion rights in michigan in particular, a state where i used to live. i went to university of michigan. my father and goddaughter are watching this morning and wearing a shirt apparently that says, girls can save the world. mya, hi, mya. she actually went into the polling booth with her mom yesterday first time and getting to have that conversation about why they vote. >> that's neat. >> that's what's happening across the country. americans still want democracy. >> yes! >> we're still alive. >> yes. and, willie -- you know -- [ applause ]

there are times that candidates come along. they sweep up voters. john kennedy. ronald reagan. barack obama. and they sweep them up, and they begin something bigger. right? last night, as morris said, it was, it was democrats, it was independents, it was republicans that picked up democrats and said, come on. come on! we still believe in a place called america! come on! get energetic, get positive, get aggressive. win -- this -- country back! they did it. for the party. and now the party, as morris said, the party's got to be positive, energetic, go focusedened a forward and win big in '24. >> and what you're saying are not even partisan statements. they're saying we think this place is worth saving.

shouldn't have people denying elections and respect people that have done things more than 200 years and mike said, a sense some is slipping away, getting out of control and voters went out and said last night, give it back. give it back. we want it back. we want this to be a normal country for lack of a better word and saw young voters not accounted for in polls. part is because, be honest. do you answer calls from unknown callers? i don't. rethink the way we do polling. independents, defied historical trends and went out voted for democrats. not a lot but a little bit, you know, historically they lose the out party. a lot going on last night. talk about issues and the economy. all important, of course, but to the large every point, a sense that people wanted to pull things back to the way we've always done it. >> never underestimate human nature, and one of the things about human nature especially if you have a family and you have

children, you teach your children, try to teach your children from a very young age, don't be a sore loser. >> right. >> you know? just accept it and go on. you learn from it. don't be a sore loser. the clip that we played coming in to this segment of the republicans' reaction to their winning is to denounce their opponent still. >> by the way, how classless of brian kemp. you know? i won four times -- won four times and i won big. you know what he did every time, what i did every time i won, i said i didn't deserve this. didn't deserve this. let me tell you about the people who deserve this, and know what? after my first race, most bitter race, negative stuff thrown at me in. the last four weeks of the campaign. first thing i did is i called my opponent and i said, you know what? i didn't deserve to win tonight. any other year, you would have won, and i'm not going to

succeed at my job without your help. i know you're hurting tonight, but can you, please, help me, because i really need your help. so amazing what that does! >> grace. >> it's amazing what a little bit of grace does. why can't brian kemp show it? why can't marco rubio show it? i'm trying to help them. this helps your political career. >> but they define themselves by what they say and how they behave because people know who sore losers are and now looking at them, they recognize sore winners. >> right, and they don't like it. one other element to the point ar what happened in michigan and the power of women. my om state, massachusetts. >> uh-huh. >> we have a woman governor. we have a woman lieutenant governor. we have a woman state treasure. a woman state auditor. >> wow. >> how great it that? >> so great. [ applause ] >> that is amazing. >> and a woman attorney general. >> and by the way, by the way, i

can say this as a guy from the south. that's in massachusetts. not actually the most progressive state in america. when it comes to -- be. >> all right. >> so we're represented here by a lot of friends from maine. all right? so a lot of friends from maine, but i have a friend in maine who, who owns biel's lobsters house. >> oh, yeah. >> he said 2022 lesson. candidate quality matters. robert, can't state that enough. can you? candidate quality matters. >> mitch mcconnell said this a few months ago, and it was exceedingly unsubtle. right? >> mitch was right. >> it was very focused. you look at -- georgia is a great example. herschel walker runs significantly behind brian kemp. you can imagine, joe, one of your former colleagues, just a normal ga republican congressman probably wins that race going

away. the fact that new hampshire was in the enden not all that competitive given the fact maggie hassan won six years ago by 0.1 of 1%. >> wow. >> yeah. >> right. >> in a state that republicans were all saying at 7:00, we're going to win this. >> then look at places, you know, add to them the, blake masters returning behind the republicans in arizona. a real challenge, challenges in places picking up seats in ohio. you know? for congressional seats for democrats. >> right. >> and flipping cincinnati. my old friend steve shavit lost. a guy since ohio won being flipped. >> what you've talked about. the real trump effect, because, you could see this in a place like new hampshire. right? again, or a place like georgia. you nominate a middle of the road normal republican in that state, and that's a really tough

state for a democrat to win. >> right. >> in georgia or new hampshire. in this environment, in this election, but right now the very edges of the republican party is exactly what's winning every one of these primaries. it begins on day one to position you, again, far out of the main stream. all of a sudden the first thing that you're talking about at that first stop with a reporter, isn't your plan for, how do help people, no the that. it's walk me through the proof you have to deny the election that happened two years ago? all of a sudden you're talking to normal middle of the road voters about something they think has been settled more than two years. >> 80% of americans. >> chaos, extremism. people who just didn't buy that. >> mika, two big issues. election deniers. 80% of americans tell pollsters, and exit polls, yeah. you know what? we believe the elections are fair and free. we have confidence in them.

80%. then on abortion. 91% of americans, 91% say, yeah. we need some exceptions to abortion. i know a lot of republicans are running around and trying to make 14-year-old girls who get raped by their uncle have abortions, making 10-year-old girls who get raped have to flee their states. 91% of americans are saying, that's not us. that's not who america is. it catches up to candidates. >> ask tudor dixon how that worked out in michigan taking 9% position or abortion on don new hampshire losing by ten points in new hampshire. for a lot of people just waking up, want to get caught up on key senate races. pick up where you probably left off last night. begin in pennsylvania. democrat john fetterman has defeated lis opponent dr. mehmet oz [ applause ] >> wow. >> and in ohio, republican j.d.

vance defeated democrat tim ryan keeping the seat in republican hands. ryan conceded to vance in a phone call shortly after the race, was called last night. in florida, senator marco rubio secured a third term after defeating democrat val demings with relatively ease when you look at numbers. rubio consistently trailed demings in fundraising and consistently ahead in polls. a number of races still too close to call including georgia. democratic incumbent raphael warnock leads by about 18,000 votes over herschel walker. looks like a runoff in december. we don't know. and still too close to call, wisconsin, ron johnson leading plan della barnes by about 33,000 votes there. it is too early to call the senate race in arizona at the moment, but democratic senator mark kelly currently leading his

republican opponent blake masters by about 6 percentage points. also, too early to call the senate race in nevada. rights now republican adam laxalt has about a three-point lead over the democrat there, catherine cortez masto. tuesday night also a big night for incumbent governors from both major parties. start with republicans. as we've been discussing, in florida, ron desantis cruised to victory over democrat charlie crist. 20-point win. >> boy. >> including a win in miami-dade county. >> what does donald trump think? what do you think he thinks? >> not happy. maybe a little jellied. >> ron desantis winning by 20 points. >> big time jelly. >> a reason yesterday donald trump spent the day attacking ron desantis yesterday. >> i think he calls him ron desanctimonious. >> and looking to defeat a front-runner perhaps for the

2024 presidential nomination if he decides to take on donald trump. stay tuned for that. 's in georgia, brian kemp defeated stacey abrams eight points, wider margin than when the two faced off in their 2018 race. texas, greg abbott successfully fended off a challenge from democrat beto o'rourke winning by double digits there. as for democrats, michigan's gretchen whitmer won her term dweeding tudor dixon, republican. in a race many thought a bellwether for republican wins across the country, new york's kathy hochul held on defeating republican congressman lee zeldin by about six points [ applause ] in wisconsin democrat tony evers won over tim michels. evers hanging on to his seat and pennsylvania picked up a governors race with josh shapiro

over doug mastriano and democrat wes moore making history in the state of maryland. becoming maryland's first black governor and third in the nation. moore defeated the trump-endorsed dan cox more than 20 points so far. flipping the governor's mansion from red to blue in a state dominated by democrats. two key contests remain too early to call this morning with about 80% of precincts reporting, nevada's incumbent democratic governor steve sisolak trails republican joe lombardo by five points in one of the most closely watched of the year. katie hobbs leading republican kari lake by two points with 67% of precincts reporting we caution still a bunch of votes to come in there. >> yes. important to point out the candidates that were endorsed by liz cheney didn't do too badly last night as well. >> no. did very well. >> slotkin, spenberger, right?

>> haven't talked a lot about house races but when virginia broke hard for spanberger late in the count. it was late. >> it was late. >> 77% in, like, oh, she's going to lose and then, boom! >> yeah. >> man, like secretariat, the race, going down to the belmont. an unbelievable win, and democrats at that point said, hold on a second. >> hold the phone. >> wait, because everybody said that was going to be -- the bellwether. one more thing, great guests to get to but a couple of things to underline very important to people haven't talked a lot about. i want to talk about, robert, three states that democrats have been so nervous about for good reason, because if they lost those states, then the election deniers could -- could -- could rob americans of -- of the, the

duly elected president in 2024. pennsylvania. michigan and wisconsin. those really are -- florida's not the battleground. it's all about those three states now, and if you ask most democratic operatives this summer if if they would win those three states, they'd go -- we're -- we're going to probably win one or two, but we will not win all three. nobody expected evers. nobody i talked to expected evers this summer to win. went pretty, won handedly. incredible what happened last night up there. >> interesting. the republican gubernatorial candidate asked a question, or said at a rally, if you elect me we'll never lose again. again, one of those things at the very end sort of -- i have to imagine that if you could have a conversation with oz this morning he might think, you know, maybe showing up with donald trump two days before the election, i've spent the last two months being middle of the

road guy might not have been the best picture to leave people with. that's before the pittsburgh thing. those are going to be huge stories as we pull back and think through what might have been, because you can imagine, you know, wisconsin and pennsylvania and michigan, in 2024. what an apparatus that includes a republican secretary of state and republican governor refused to certify an electoral count. right? you start pulling votes out of the electoral college because somebody doesn't certify, you have a real challenge. >> say this quickly. again, we have to keep context. have to keep this all in context. evers barely won four years ago. wins comfortably last night. in the worst environment possible for democrats. inflation, worst inflation in 40 years. always falls on the party in power. the governor in power. we're heading into a recession. people know that.

there 401(k)s have gone down. >> the housing market. >> people know that. the housing market's collapsed. it's hard to even get a place you can rent. you've got to always keep this in context, because the democrats did better. >> yeah. >> in this case in wisconsin. in a -- in, perhaps, the biggest swing state, even with everything going against them. >> history going against them. >> when history especially is going against them and they still win. you can't overstate how historic last night's wins were. >> and bring in editor of the "washington post" bob woodward and presidential historian jon meacham joins us. go to have you both. [ applause ] jon meacham. >> wait a second. >> ah, ah, ah -- >> willie, ask a question but can't bring up -- >> is he going to?

>> anyone can pull it off, jon. >> can't be boring this morning. >> i will try, endeavor, i will endeavor but i this the french and indian war has a lot to teach us. >> there it is. >> yes! >> there it is. >> jon meacham, what happened last night? >> what happened last night seems to me is you have as churchill once said, when it comes to trump, it may not be the end. it may not even be the end, the beginning of the end but it was the end of the beginning, and i think -- >> hmm. >> -- basically politicians act on incentive. lincoln said all men act on incentive, and if trump cannot deliver, then, in fact, his influence diminishes, and we may -- this may be fools' gold, as joe was saying, if i'm wrong, but the results are that it turns out not to be a political

winner in a democracy to launch an insurrection. >> oh. that's what it is? >> well, we certainly hope that, certainly hope that's true and borne out in results last night, bob woodward by the races. no red wave by admission of many senators. lindsey graham saying not a red wave and a lot of races looked at, from governors' mansions to senate races, all the way down to some of these house contests, election deniers were stopped in their tracks and people who denied the election in the primary because it, woulded for them there, was a failing strategy in a general election you've got to win the entire state. you've watched a few of these things over the years. what did you make of what you saw last night, bob? >> first of all, some of the exit polls said trump was not a factor. i think he really was a factor. trump is so embedded in the national consciousness that in an election like this so close

to 2024, he's a big factor. real quickly, i think three things happened. trump always complains, i know he complaineds to me, you don't understand me. you don't understand me. and actually, i think people are beginning to understand who he really is. that understanding is his problem. there's so much evidence from the january 6th insurrection to a certain extent trump, i think, when you examine this as i have is the, really, the father of the pandemic that killed 1.1 million people in this country. second, i think voters are looking at the larger national interest. something politicians are supposed to do. a lot of people like trump, and i think kind of, oh, i like him, but i don't need him.

it is the country does not need him now. third, i think people look at, we're going to have a crisis. we always have a crisis. that's the thing trump is worst at, and given biden's experience and this level of understanding, i think biden now has plitically, people realize he'll do a better job in a crisis. >> a minute ago, lieutenant governor of georgia, "truly a pivot point for the republican party. donald trump is no doubt in the rearview mirror" from the republican lieutenant governor of georgia [ applause ] >> and you have -- from the "washington post" basically saying same thing. how disastrous last night was.

>> on fox saying that. >> how disastrous for republicans and they need to move forward. >> rethink everything. >> may be wish-casting on the part of the governor. donald trump still has a strong hold on a lot of people in the country. >> and democratic consultanting say, yeah, yeah, please, bring him back, because he's got like a 9.74 e.r.a. and a, or a 73 mile-an-hour fastball he puts right over the plate. democrats, again, can't overstate this enough. democrats just beat him every year. i mean, if you didn't want to overturn democracy, you can almost feel sorry for him, but you can't, because he loses -- every -- year. ah. it's getting so boring! >> but still going to be a big challenge resting the republican nomination. >> right! yes. >> because if you think -- say ten people run and nine people

cut up the maybe 50% not trump. >> yep. >> but the other structural problem that republicans have in primaries, once you get past three or four races it's winner take all. right? this is how trump beat cruz in 2016. because you get to a point where you're not having to get 50-plus 1% in these states. just hang on with a group of people and take home all the delegates. interesting things to play out here in this republican nomination. >> yeah. the choice is so clear, though, for republicans. so clear. they saw desantis. they saw what happened. practically a coronation and saw trump again leading them to defeat. jon meacham, you've talked a good bit about the united states going through a period of, could be the 1850s. i think a lot of historians would agree with you. a lot of political analysts would agree with you. but talk about last night.

again, massive change of direction for this country. were voters, perhaps, they decided, no. actually, we -- we want to say no to that future. >> uh-huh. >> we want to bring this country back together. >> well, i think if this had been an ordinary election you would have it, saw your exit polls there. you would have had one of these historic elections, where, you know, harry truman wins world war ii and loses the congress. lyndon johnson won the largest landslide to that date in american history, 1964, in 1966 loses more than 60 seats and ronald reagan becomes governor of california. and we more recently, you came to power in a 60-seat year. right? 1994. 2010, you know -- it goes on and on. so all the smart guys, right, were sitting around waiting for this to be this vast republican

wave, and it wasn't. so you step back and you say, why? it may just be that americans by and large and, again, just enough, right? it's not a democratic wave. let's be very clear. but enough americans said, i actually want a constitutional republic where we argue about differences peaceably. we don't encourage political violence. we understand that democracies are about giving and taking, and it's harder to give than to take. our natural instinct is to take, and i think more than half the country made a decision that they would rather have a constitutional republic where you may not get everything you want on policy e this afternoon, but you want to preserve a system that has delivered more good than ill. >> so bob woodward, you have

spent more time with donald trump than anybody, perhaps, than melania and got it on tape. so i'm wondering, what do you think about the theory that perhaps in the irony, complete political irony, is dominance, his dominance in the media will defeat him? because he appears now in front of the american public filled with bitterness and narcissim that anyone could recognize. >> i think that's exactly right, and i think the more you experience trump and this is the point about we're beginning to understand this core dimension of him, which is, it's all about him. it's self. in the middle of the pandemic, he's worried about the election, not developing a plan while he's president to do something about that. and people are just seeing more.

i think there's more evidence. jon meacham talks about, you know, people want a constitutional democracy. i don't know there are many people who take that high road, but it's part of the raw evidence from january 6th. wait a minute. this is outrageous, what happened. all you have to do is look at a minute of that video and listen to trump's inspiring this kind of violence. >> yep. >> so what we're doing is, we're getting more information, and i think people are responding to it. i also think there's much discussion about ron klein, biden's chief of staff. i know him. haven't talked to him for over a year, but you look at what happened, and i think not only give biden some credit, but give

ron klein some credit. he kind of kept on this message. okay. we're doing fine. we're doing well. and this is part of the evidence of it. >> you know who else would say ron klein deserves that thanks? ron klein. bob woodward, joking, ron. good to see you guys. wonderful to see you. >> you're not boring. >> so mahra, jon talked about violence. >> yeah. >> maybe offended by violence. often talked about fact sometimes wonder if we're talking too far up here. bob said maybe americans don't think that. i think they do. you know what? sometimes things happen in the last week of a campaign that have a massive impact, and people don't go thinking that just that one thing. they will tell you if they were concerned about republicans, and january the 6th, and violence,

they saw somebody spouting trump talking points who broke into paul pelosi's home, battered him in the head, cracked his skull. >> oh, my god. >> had this 82-year-old grandfather rushed to the icu, in a life-threatening injury, and you had republicans mocking him. you have donald trump, who's been mocking him all week. people don't -- maybe some people don't think that americans focus on things like that, but you know what? they go in and they're going, january the 6th. election deniers. overturning roe. oh. mocking an 82-year-old grandfather. right? it all adds up, and i think it added up last night. >> i totally agree. it's extremely heartening and a huge relief, i feel this morning. just from knowing that majority of americans and even not only democrats actually don't want to live in a country where that

happens, and that is accepted. >> yes. >> i think at the same time, though, generally an optimist. i can't help feeling when you look at wins like folks like j.d. vance and of course even more so desantis and those big tallies that he got last night. you get the sense that while trump himself may have kind of been defeated or vanquished, trumpism still lives. and i think it's an ever-present threat and i think that, you know, we really are at a moment where much more is being asked of americans who are committed to democracy than simply showing up to vote. >> right. >> i think now that's really where the focus needs to be. it's not enough to just show up on election day. people have to get involved in their, again, their board of education. their city coucouncils. people need to run for office. americans are being asked to save the country, essentially. >> and not just that -- not just

democrats. democrats, independents. >> republicans and came together last night. >> they did but they need to come together every day. the work begins. >> thank you all for joining us. thank you very much. [ applause ] and still ahead on "morning joe," more on the senate race in georgia. including exit polling that shows what voters in the state think about herschel walker's judgment. plus, arizona gubernatorial candidate kari lake continues to attack the media as results pour in from her state. she doesn't like the results. >> wasn't she in the media? >> she doesn't like the bastards in the media. >> she is the media. right? >> i know! why use that name. also ahead, republicans won big in florida last night but there was a small bright spot for democrats. we'll take a look at that. >> and as we go to break know example how a candidate can show grace if defeat. in defeat. >> in the coming years american

democracy, it will be tested. this is going to be the great challenge of our lives. possibly one of the greatest challenges our nation has ever faced, but i am here tonight to tell you that, yes, even tonight, i still believe in america!

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in this family, it's the scientists versus the artists. [ melancholy music playing ] what kinda movie are you gonna make? $100 for a hobby? -it's not a hobby, dad. [ chatter ] don't dismiss what he does. it's playful or imaginative. family. art... [ grunting ] it'll tear you in two. i don't want to disappoint you. [ screaming ] you do what your heart says you have to. he allowed $4 trillion to go out and that caused inflation, and what really caused inflation is energy, and mitch mcconnell allowed $4 trillion to be wasted by the democrats, and so i could see somebody fighting -- you

know, i know him well, he's a great governor and a good senator, so we will see. >> that was donald trump slamming minority leader, mitch mcconnell. and praising rick scott of florida. >> be nice. >> he needs to eat vegetables. >> yeah, mix in a salad. >> anyhow, with us, we have cupcake. >> we all love cupcake. >> and with us we have columnist for the washington post, eugene robinson, and best-selling author -- she just joined us and

she's the vice chair of the forbes, and more on that coming up. very exciting. >> you got the biggest applause, so i will go to you. >> thank you, thank you. >> i am not an idiot. what happened, man? >> so i keep thinking of an old story i heard when i was a reporter in california a long time ago, his name was dick tuck, and he got a lot of people elected and tossed out of office, and he decided to run for something himself, and he got creamed. he came out to give a concession speech that night, and he said, the people have spoken, pause, those bastards, and i think of

that when i think of kari lake. >> i think there are a lot of factors. just a couple things i want to say. one, i would like to give a shout-out to my south carolina homeboy, jamie harrison, the dead of the dnc. everybody said the dnc is not doing this or that, and in the end, not too shabby. you said he had a 50-state strategy, and that's what he did. he said he was working at the grassroots. that's what he did. he did really well in governorships. let's give him a bit of credit. >> big time. >> the other -- one of the other clear messages to me is what does the republican party not now understand about what people want them to do or not do on

abortion? right, the abortion referendum in places like kansas, and certainly in michigan, people, whether they are in favor of abortion or disapprove of it or whatever do not want that fundamental privacy right taken away. they want it guaranteed. i just wonder if anybody in the republican party is going to hear that message. >> and abortion was on the ballot in michigan as well, and we had candidates tell us a couple months ago the dobbs decision energized voters and brought out a lot of people that otherwise might not have voted, and it looks like she could win by a slim margin. >> and for those of you who know, election nights are kind of triggering for me, and i wish

i would not have eaton all the chinese food and all those slices of pizza, but it feels like to me the dobbs decision was the straw that broke the camel's back, and the idea of how much was tolerable. i spoke to joe and mika about this, and i spent the better part of the year outside this country talking to people about america, and what i come back and tell my fellow americans is to live in a democracy is a privilege, that somebody like me, i did not grow up in a democracy. to come and go to the polls and do it safely is really a privilege, and that's what we are reminded of last night, and we talk about tim ryan being a hero, and i am sad tim did not win the ohio senate race, and he showed what it was like to be a leader. i am glad you had bob woodward

and meacham on earlier, and i remember getting the call from then vice president, al gore, and calling and saying i will not challenge, and i was the one that took the call when barack obama called hillary clinton in 2016, and meanwhile people were calling hillary and saying don't concede. and that was back in the dark ages, and wait, there's something in the numbers not making sense and the polls are off, and she took the call and agreed and that was because it was about the peaceful transfer of power, and with abortion, i think people did not understand what it would mean for both, democrats and republicans. >> let's show tim ryan and how important what he did last night

was. here is his concession. >> i have a privilege, a privilege, as somebody that was the democratic nominee, i have the privilege to concede this race to j.d. vance, because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election, you concede. [ applause ] and you respect -- you respect the will of the people, right? we can't have a system where if you win it's a legitimate election and if you lose somebody stole it. that is not how we can move forward in the united states. >> you know what you call that guy? you call that guy a winner. you call that guy a winner. he's got a great future in politics. i just got to say hearing uma

talking about gore in 2000, which by the way, an extraordinary moment. >> it was. >> reminds me on that moment on "morning joe" where we asked pat buchanan, and we were like, pat, you know, and nixon knows that sam and the democrats stole illinois, why didn't you challenge it? >> because we stole kentucky. >> he threw a couple other ones in. >> the dark ages. that was followed by pat's laugh and everything. and david ignatius from "the wall street journal," and he has a great saying you go all over the world and talk to people, and two things are true. one, they loathe the united states, and two, most of them want to move there, right? they still look at us as that city shining brightly on the

hill for all the world to see. i don't want to get too mellow dramatic, and it's not that they celebrate when republicans win and democrats lose, but we all know, in capitals across europe, in ukraine today, this afternoon -- and i must say they are celebrating this victory. a guy in moscow, and a leader in beijing are not, because this is america returning to form -- not ideologically, but just showing we are still a democracy and we are going to vote out election deniers. >> gives me chills. >> it was a good night for democracy, and a good night for democracies around the world. as president biden says there's a contest going on around the

world, by democracies where you go to the polls and solve or problems, and then autocratic governments like china, and american voters, there was not riots at the polls and not a lot of violence at the polls and people took their responsibilities seriously, and generally made good choices. one of the most interesting choices is the exit polls show 3 out of 5 americans think we should back down on the support of ukraine, and they were steady. the world has been looking at us recently, wondering, is this country going to crack up? are they heading towards a civil

war? and think of all the articles you read in our media, civil war is looming and violence at the polls? >> nope. >> and the world watched carefully last night and said, you know, this america may be a little steadier than we thought. >> yep, yep. >> and in this battle against the autocrats, and maybe the democratic countries are stronger than we thought. that's my takeaway. >> that's a great takeaway. i feel like we have to circle back on something, and we have not talked enough about joe biden and the white house, because if democrats had the night we all expected, everybody would be kicking him, they would say too old, too out of touch and made too many mistakes. >> they always underestimate him. >> you have been up close, and what we have been doing for 15 years here, we have been sports analyzing -- >> cheap sheets. yeah. >> we did it with bush and

obama. it's what we do, right? you've been there. it's so much -- i -- my professor, he was a tennis player and i was criticizing something on tv, and he said do you know how fast that ball comes at these players, and until you are on the front row, you probably should keep your comments to yourself. you know what this means to joe biden this morning, because you have seen what happens when people heap criticism because voters go a different way. talk about joe biden, what this means for this white house. >> well, i can only imagine the tone of the conversation on air force one, as it should be, as they head to cambodia and go to the g20, because what i think what everybody was bracing for

and people walking into the room and people having questions if this was a lame duck president, and everything has now changed. everything has now changed. you know, i have so much admiration for the fact that these people just did their job, and they didn't care -- i think we live in a world where we like politicians who entertain us and who are charismatic and dynamic, and i don't dismiss the really historic candidates who won like wes moore, for example, and we would not have had the coalition to support ukraine if joe biden would have been our president. not to add a little rain on what i think is otherwise a good day, and it's unclear what is going to happen -- i think consequences are important for years and decades, and this

country has led by example, and so now the january 6th hearings, and i think that's what was so shocking to the world. i think a lot of people in the country could not quite understand the abortion issue, and it's such a uniquely american thing. you go to the middle east where i grew up, and frankly, i know women who had all kinds of things they don't have a choice over, but they can fully go to their doctor and make a choice about their bodies, full stop, period. for them i think that was a little bit -- but now i hope there is some way to hold them accountable. >> and to follow-up on what she said about joe biden and the way people look at joe biden. joe biden is going to the g20 and there will be bad people in that room with him. >> you think? >> there are going to be people

ready to sneer at joe biden, and i don't want to overstate this, and republicans, if you are a trumpists and you are watching and angry, too bad. this is a reality. joe biden walks into that room, putin, xi, nbs, and they are going to look at a guy and go we have to deal with this guy for a couple more years because he just kicked donald trump's ass. >> you could have used a different word. >> i could have used -- sorry preacher. i could have used a different word, sorry president -- >> oh, man, she's right there. >> he's been up all night. >> i can't overstate the importance of that. talk about that, because when biden walks into that room, these tyrants --

>> i wish i could say your 40s in russian or chinese. i would love to think how vladimir putin will say that. it's true. there's a perception in the world that changes a little bit last night that joe biden is weak, and the united states is weak, that we're unreliable, and i think that those are the leaders that have to recalculate that, and they have to see this president and the party he leads and the country that he leads are not quite as fragmented and in such disarray as they thought. >> and imagine the conversation we would be having today if

brazil would have won -- >> it also comes at a time -- >> we should have had a party. >> -- the russians are starting to consider talking to us. they are starting to say wait a second, maybe we need to figure out a way. they will be doing that with joe biden holding a very strong hand. >> exactly, because reality is reality and joe biden is the president. you know, he's not for turning, he's not going to swirl from this policy. >> thank you all so much for being on this morning. >> thank you, guys. >> we have a lot to get to. >> we are just past the top of the hour, and we will get back to the big board, and steve kornacki is there. steve, give us an update. >> the biggest outstanding thing here is the house and senate, and this is the nbc news projection on the house right now. you can see we have it at republicans landing at 220

seats. you need 218 to get a majority, but the key here is that is plus or minus ten seats, meaning there's still room for republicans to build on that 220 to get up to 225, to get more of a meaty majority. to get a look at the outstanding action here on the house, and there's an irony taking shape and it has to do with new york state. what you are seeing in gray is uncalled. i want to focus on the state of morning. we talked about this as a possibility yesterday. in the governor's race in new york, kathy hochul is elected, and lee zeldin, what he did was run up huge numbers on long island, and once he got north of westchester county, he ran up

big numbers in the hudson valley and catskills, and this is where there are a number of vulnerable democratic house seats, and zeldin has jeopardized up to five democratic held house seats, and something extremely ironic, i will show you, just give me a second here, and long island, the republican is leading here, and this seat voted for joe biden, and robert zimmerman conceded this race, and this is a district that voted for joe biden by eight points. these are two republican pickups. this is where it gets really interesting. the 17th district, and now you are in the hudson valley, and this is maloney, he's the chairman of the democratic congressional campaign committee and responsible for coordinating and running democratic campaigns for the house nationally, and he is with almost all the vote in

his district, going down to defeat, and this is almost the first time in 42 years that a campaign committee leader lost his or her own district, and that would be another democratic loss. pat ryan won the special election in new york over the summer, only a few votes left here, but a republican area still to report, so a possibility there for the republicans. and then in the 19th district, that republican over 6,000 votes ahead of the democrats. what i am saying, democrats have a chance of holding the house, and the democrats could even end up going down, and this state stands out from every other state where democrats were over performing and winning house races they were not expected to

win, and suddenly it seems to have hit a wall in new york state. these races are not called yet, but potentially, the irony of ironies, that strong zeldin race could not be enough to win but could be enough to give republicans a substantial number of gains in new york and that could complicate the democrat's chance of retaining the house. they still have a chance to do that. can they pull out a couple new york races, and then in california there are a whole bunch of districts in california in play, and there are six republican-held seats in california that democrats are targeting, and four of them are republicans that represent districts that joe biden won in 2020, and two other that democrats have a chance in, and the counting in california is slow and it could take weeks. we have about 30, 40, 50% of the

vote in those districts right now, and there are other races you can see are uncalled. democrats may inbound a position where they may be having to run the table, essentially, in california. they could be -- they could be poised to take a hit here in new york. it could be ironic. they have a night so much better than they expected to have, and then the morning after we are still talking about the democrats controlling the house and if they don't end up getting it and falling short, it could be the home of the chair in the national campaign committee from doing it. >> it may not happen, but the fact that we are talking about the next day the democrats holding on to the house. and then two key states, arizona and nevada, they are still counting the votes out there. what does it looks like? >> it's very important right now in terms of the senate math because the democrats got the

pickup in pennsylvania, and that means the republicans need to get two democratic seats. ron johnson is ahead in wisconsin, so if ron johnson were to hang in there, republicans would have that, and take a look at arizona and nevada, and if georgia goes to a runoff, mark kelly, the democrat with about 70% of the vote, his margin is north of 100,000 votes over blake masters. we have the same-day vote out of maricopa county, and that's where 60% of the votes come from, and overnight they counted up the same-day votes, and it

brought masters within single digits in kelly. what is still to come in maricopa county, and the next update will probably come tonight and we will get nightly updates in maricopa, and this could come up to five days. >> oh, come on. >> and you are going to get incremental updates of the late-arriving early vote, and that is votes that came in on sunday, monday and the day of the election, and these will be reported out in batches. the suspense in arizona is this, in 2020, those late arriving ballots skewed heavily republicans in 2018, there was a different character and flavor to the late-arriving ballots and

that's why kyrsten sinema was able to get that race. what is the flavor of those ballots? are they like 2020 ballots where they favor republicans? if so maybe there's a world where masters can come back and catch kelly in this race. he needs something monstrous. but are they more like 2018, in which case democrats are in fantastic shape in the senate race, and masters needs to make up a lot sleeper hill to climb than trump faced in 2020. in the governor's race, kari lake only needs to make up 30,000. a difference of 75,000 votes. lake over performing masters. that same scenario i just took you through, if those are republican-favoring ballots, maybe there's a way to get masters over the top, but if they are republican flavored,

they could get kari lake over the top in the governor's race. >> steve, but it depends, like you said, if we follow what happens in 2020 when trump was on the ballot, this is good news for kari lake. good news for masters, and he's having a hard time catching up regardless. if it looks like the last off-year election, though, a democratic year, then maybe good news for katie hobbs, right? >> about 9:00, we will get a big batch -- hopefully a big batch from maricopa, and the first of several nights of this, and that's what we are going to be looking for. >> can we go back to the senate race for a second, and you said for people waking up to the west coast and mountain time and whatever other time zones are out there, central -- i grew up in central, so central, and you brought up a great point. kelly has 106,000 votes, and

masters has to make that up. trump made up a lot of votes but he had a much bigger electorate in 2020 that he could draw from, like masters is really going to have to draw an inside straight here, and the nature of the ballots are going to have to be so republican-leaning, and he's going to have to out perform trump because he's operating from a much smaller universe of voters, right? >> yeah, and i am just looking here. i can give you the number from exactly this moment where we stood in 2020 when we got all of that same-day reported out in maricopa county, and we were waiting on the exact kind of thing that i am talking about right here, and at that point in 2020, joe biden had an advantage of 94,000 votes over donald trump. >> right. >> it came down to about 9,700.

again, that's a significant lead for kelly, but, again, this is's just a variable -- it's an unknown variable, until maricopa gives us a sense of what that looks like. we have seen two elections now, and it looked different in 18 than in 20, and it could look different than '22 than it looked in '20 or '18. we are probably not going to learn much more in arizona today. it will be tonight when maricopa sends out that batch of votes, and that will give us an idea if masters could come back. >> bottom line for masters regardless, it's a very steep climb. not as steep for kari lake. if it looks like the 2020 ballots, kari lake makes this very competitive. if it looks like the 2018 ballots, then democrats probably win the governorship there, right? >> yeah, if it looks like 2020, kari lake will win the governorship, and if it looks like 2018, the democrats win

both of these things. and it could be something completely different in 2022, because we have seen two different things in two elections, but that's what we are waiting on in arizona, the late-arriving early ballots. and then in nevada, overall, that's the clark county vote, and over all the republican took the lead overnight, and what we are waiting on coming out of clark county and where reno is, we are waiting on late-arriving early ballots, and also drop box votes, votes put in drop boxes yesterday, and we are trying to get a handle on how many votes that represents exactly. we suspect whatever it is is likely to favor the democrats, so there could be a path there for cortez and masters. there are some reports out there, and we have not confirmed them, but there's some reports that there's a volume of

uncounted mail and drop box votes to lift cortez masto. if you are a republican, your hopes are more on nevada than arizona. a big picture on the senate side for republicans, if georgia goes to a runoff and johnson holds on in wisconsin, they have to get one of these two, the republicans, then the senate control would come down to georgia. if republicans can sweep arizona and nevada, and we still may have a runoff in georgia, democrats would lock up the senate with those two. >> steve, thanks for your great work all night long. [ applause ] >> donny deutsch, and mr.

matthews -- chris matthews, you are our pennsylvania guy. what happened? >> well, it's an old bobby kennedy expression about you hang a lantern on your problem, and he asked for the acceptance of the accommodation, and people liked it and understood the need for an accommodation, because he had a handicap and a stroke, and he opened himself up to the voters of pennsylvania, and they looked at him and then the alternative, donald trump's candidate, the one he picked over mccormick. the guy from jersey. i grew up in philadelphia, and there was a long train of people sitting in deck chairs watching the people come from from jersey

every sunday night. everybody knows what down the shore means. it means from jersey. so in the end they said we are going to look out for our own guy here, whatever his handicaps, unlike trump who makes fun of people with handicaps and it worked. i was thinking about you last night, as i often do on these election nights, and you said at the end of the day with all the issues and polling that goes into a campaign, voters look and go, is he or she one of us? does he or she represent us? and to what extent do you think they looked at dr. oz and said he's not one of us? >> he's been slick, and it was not just the capitol police that fought the insurrection or mike pence, it was the voters.

they said no to it. they said we vote today. we have the reigns to the horses and we decide which direction the country goes in and they said no to donald trump and his refusal that he lost in 2020. and tim ryan, what a hero. >> uh-huh. >> as joe said, what a hero. he said what trump never said. i lost. that's part of the american system. when the voters speak, you have to respond to them. you have to say i hear you, i lost, i wanted you to like me and you liked the other guy for whatever reason more than me, but i am living with that because i am an american. >> we teach our kids to do just that, to be graceful winners, and to be good losers, and to pick yourself up and brush the dust off of you, shake your opponent's hand that beat you,

congratulate them, and walk on. >> and he had an amazing campaign. >> he ran a great campaign. he did just that. carlos, republicans -- >> okay. okay. >> they had one bright spot. >> uh-huh. >> very sunny. >> but you and i both represents this state in congress, and i think we both understand last night in florida, that was an earthquake. >> two big losers last night, joe. donald trump and florida democrats. florida is no longer a swing state. take it off the map and color it red. it's no longer purple and democrats have to understand that and accept that going into 2024. but outside of florida -- by the way, ron desantis and marco rubio, they have been close to trump and they never embraced trump's lie.

i think we saw this all over the country. ticket splinters punished those that embraced trump's lie, and rewarded others who did not. and this election is fundamentally about trust, and we talked about inflation and crime and abortion, and at the end of the day, the ticket splitters that decided a lot of the races said we are going to punish people who are lying to us. we call them election deniers, and they are just liars. >> remarkable, isn't it? >> in new york, we had lee zeldin, who is a election denier, and he has yet to concede to kathy hochul, and there are still election deniers who won last night and there are a lot of americans that supported them, and in the next two years we have to see how that moves forward. republicans have a trump problem and they are going to have to

see the intra-party fighting. >> yeah, kathy hochul hangs on the governor's race in wisconsin and michigan. >> that was a rough ride. >> there are house races, and you can go down the ballot where election deniers ran and were defeated. what did you see last night? >> this ended up being a referendum on crazy. was it a referendum on january 6th, election deniers, and on abortion rights, craziness. it became a referendum on crazy. america -- >> we talked about weirdos, freaks and resurrectionists. >> professor, we now launched what i think is one of the most

interesting shows on earth, the ron and don show. desantis is ascending and donald trump is descending. and donald trump may not go away, and he could be ralph nader. you can see what is going to happen. i heard this from a big donor, desantis' people are not concerned about him but in -- the democrats are united. there's going to be a civil war in the republican party. donald trump does not go away. that's their problem. >> willie, we have been following him for a long time. it's hard to imagine, especially with him facing indictments, him just quieting going away and saying i will fight the doj on my own. he wants to announce so he can say i am being persecuted, it's a witch hunt.

>> of course donny is right. it's a lot of wish casting for the republicans, he's not going anywhere. his brand of campaigning and brand of extremism was on the ballot last night and it lost. to your point, carlos, about desantis, i had a republican strategists text me last night and say, anybody that watched last night and watched ron desantis transform the state of florida to win miami-dade county and latino voters, and watch donald trump and still picks donald trump over desantis, is just a cultists at this point, and that was a republican saying that. donald trump is not going to see the stage. >> the desantis team could not have written a better script for last night. >> oh, yeah. >> the problem is, that show is ending and we open up the new

chapter where donald trump's goal is to going to be destroy ron desantis, ron desantis and mitch mcconnell, those two will be receiving donald trump's fire for the next few months and we will see how they deal with it. >> it will probably start today. chris matthews, talk about how we never know what will happen on election day. pollsters do their best, and over the last couple cycles, they overlooked right wing populists, and last night it was younger voters and women who were motivated, and men who love women who cared about abortion, who cared about the right that women had had for 50 years that was taken away, and they were the ones. if you looked at the polls before and exit polls, they are the ones that pollsters underestimated greatly last

night. what a difference they made. >> so true. you know, punditry and polling, all of those have their role until the first votes are counted, and then we hear from the people. the voters get to decide. they are the leaders. the people out there who walk into the voting booth and exercise their right to free speech and to picking leaders, they are the ones who decide the country. they rule the country. that's the power of election day. >> yeah. >> voters are the bosses, the big bosses. they tell us what they think, and that rules the country. we'll find out who rules the house and the senate, but we have heard from the voters and it's not what the pundits had, what i thought was going to happen. the fear i had was over the top.

i thought this could be a disaster, and yet the voters said, no, we care about the constitution, and we care about liz cheney and protecting our right for choice, and we are a country of freedom and elections. freedom and elections, they work together. with our freedom we can vote and with our vote we protect our freedom, and they work together and the voters exercised their rights to rule a country. >> christina greer, the polling made one think abortion was not top of mind, but women turned out, and many men who care about that issue and even places like kentucky, what happened? >> joe made an interesting point, it's not just women. it's men who care about this issue. if republicans are saying life begins at conception, and then is my son on the hook for parental support from conception? i think they are thinking about some of the financial

ramifications as well, and nothing to say a women's right to choose if she's 10 years old or 40 years old, and this is a conversation about choice. it's not about pro life. and we have seen republicans who are pro death penalty and they don't care about the environment, and these are a host of issues that are about life, and they are wanting help with the pocketbook issues. >> we are good guys. it's the sound bite that will live through history, that's tim ryan. that is who we are, the democratic party versus the republican party, and if you were not moved by that, then you don't feel what is great about us. to me that is the sound bite that -- >> he was making an important

point about america and this democracy. thank you all very much for being on this morning. ahead on "morning joe," james carville will join us. and then spending millions to promote some of the more extreme candidates in the republican primaries, and we will look at if that strategy paid off. and then jewel is our guest this morning. she has a new initiative about raising awareness around mental health. you are watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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substance use disorder are for -- >> half the murders in philadelphia, we have to get mental services to these people. >> what i do know is this, and that is we as a state and we as a society need to do a better job with mental health. >> well beyond the threat posed by school shootings, just the fact that the largest in-patient mental health care facility in a state of 30 million people is the harris county jail in downtown houston, texas, and what does that say about who we are and what our priorities are and what we value in this state. >> we will focus on the most severely mentally ill individuals who are identified here in the subways, and not only will this provide help for them but will alleviate the fear of many of our riders today. >> all right. and she won.

so mental health has been a key issue for many candidates during these mid-term elections with anxiety, depression, suicide rates currently at historic highs in this country, and not helpful that covid impacted all this. and half of americans not having access, and this morning there's a new resource. grammy-nominated and multi-platinum songwriter and singer, jewel, a challenge, providing proven tools for mental health throughout the holiday season. more than 120 leaders, executives, celebrities and athletes and mental health experts are coming together to help participate in this campaign, and joe, you and i are as well. it's the not alone challenge. it inspires people to create short videos sharing support and

advocacy for mental health than challenge and tag two friends and participate and share their stories. there's also an online auction that funds -- the funds go to support jewel's non-profit organization, the inspiring children's foundation, and jewel is here between me and joe on set, and it's nice to see you in person. >> i have been a big fan. >> i love what you are doing. >> thank you. >> it's personal for you. >> yeah, i moved out at 15 and grew up in a abusive home, and if happiness is not taught at home, is it a teachable skill, and 50% of people that need these types of tools don't have access to them. >> let's talk about that. i have been talking to mika about a couple years now going, can we create an app or create

something called community, because people are so isolated. >> especially in covid. >> yeah, especially during covid, and that's what you are doing, there's loneliness out there, and unfortunately, so many people, especially in rural areas, don't have the ability to get the type of help they need. >> yeah, we can't scale therapists quickly enough, so finding proven ones that are skill oriented, and it's just based on science, the tools that we can get. >> there are a lot of mental health deserts. it's one of the great challenges. anxiety, depression, suicidal idealizations, and suicide, all of these problems going up. >> yeah, everybody is touched by it. we are seeing it across every demographic and age group and

socioeconomic background, and one of the issues is making sure we have resources tailored to those countries, and you need somebody that looks like you that help with these problems. >> i appreciate what you are doing for children. >> yeah, we have been doing this for 20 years when nobody really cared about mental health. the good news is over the 20 years, we cultivated a tool kit that helps, and i think we are the only free one with those types of tools. >> we have a doctor that works on this that is in our audience today. >> yes. >> you guys did this together. >> yeah. >> it's the not alone challenge. we're doing it. >> yay. >> jewel, thank you for your work on this. on this day, we needed to

settle, and we thought it would be worse, right? up next, you will be grabbing your guitar and be performing one of your songs, and that's ahead. and first, let's get an update on peter alexander on where things stand this morning after the midterms. >> this morning control of congress up in the air with the house and senate still hanging in the balance. republicans acknowledging the expected red wave never materialized. >> definitely not a republican wave, that's for sure. >> on it has not been as big of a wave i hoped it would be. >> democrats are celebrating a critical senate pickup in pennsylvania. where lieutenant governor, fetterman, just months removed from a stroke defeated his republican rival, celebrity tv doctor, mehmet oz. >> for anybody that was knocked down and got back up --

>> and georgia could be headed to a runoff next month if raphael warnock or herschel walker could not reach the 50% threshold. >> you all just hang in there. i'm feeling good. >> i said he's going to be tough to beat. >> democrats showed signs of strength in a number of key races. >> hats off to the democrats. >> two democratic senators, maggie hassan, with narrow victories. >> thanks to your commitment and hard work, we have won this race. >> critical wins for the gop holding on to a key senate seat in north carolina, and in ohio, j.d. vance beating democrat, tim ryan.

vance was endorsed by former president trump. >> i will never forget the great people of ohio. >> a major bright spot for the gop, florida, governor ron desantis and marco rubio cruising to election, and across the country, voters sending a message they are dissatisfied with president biden and the economy. abortion rights was the second most important issue, and a huge motivating factor for democrats. now both parties facing a deeply divided electorate ahead of the next presidential election.

here now to perform an acue

stick version of month more tears, jewel. ♪

♪ lord knows you can't lose all of the time ♪ ♪ so dry those pretty eyes ♪ ♪ lift up that proud face, cause i can still see a beautiful place there are for you now ♪ ♪ love is a mystery ♪ ♪ but i still see its shieng face ♪ ♪ there are no more sad songs, just blue skies ♪

♪ there are no more tears to cry ♪ ♪ as long as there's a child's laughter and a starry sky ♪ ♪ and a beating in my chest there's a willingness to try ♪ ♪ as long as i see poetry and ordinary things ♪ ♪ you know i will, i will, i will see love's, oh, love's shining face ♪ ♪ there are no more sad songs, just blue skies ♪ ♪ that's you shouldly where people clap because it was pretty amazing, thank you

♪ there are no more tears, sweetheart ♪ ♪ there are no more tears ♪ ♪ there are no more tears to cry ♪ jewel. >> thank you. singer and song writer, jewel. thank you so much. >> amazing. >> jewel is going to be back at the end of the next hour to close the show. four hours? five today? i don't know. she's going to have a special guest with her. up next we get back to coverage of the major surprises from the midterms overnight. morning joe will be right back. let's hear it for jewel. r jewe.

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you've endorsed more than 330 candidates this election cycle. tonight, win or lose, the results for republicans how much of that will be because of donald trump? >> well, i think if they win i should get all the credit and if they lose i should not be blamed at all. but it'll probably be just the opposite. >> i'm confused. wait. former president donald trump demanding credit only when things go well for republicans. does he -- i guess he really think that is republican leaders that follow him and followers are really stupid. that answer is i'll only take the credit if they win. actually, it's on you that there were a lot of losses. i know he doesn't watch.