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we are back now heading up hour two of our special election coverage. thank you for being with us. i'm hailly jackson at our election headquarters in new york with andrea mitchell and katy tur. top of the hour, let's talk about what has happened and developed in the last 60 minutes or so, right. big picture here, house projection is pretty much where it's been for most of the morning here. kind of an open question. plus or minus 10 seats with dozens of races yet to be called across the country. in the last 7 minutes we saw from our friend of the show jake sherman, kevin mccarthy announcing his bid for the speakership. the senate as we look at that board, listen, we don't know. senator ron johnson keeping republicans in the running with maybe the majority with the projected win over mandela barnes and then that big news in the last hour, the georgia race

now advancing to a runoff between incumbent democrat raphael warnock and republican herschel walker as well. >> and arizona is still too early to call with democratic senator mark kelly holding a lead over blake masters. in nevada, a potential bright spot for senate republicans adam laxalt is leading incumbent democratic senator catherine cortez masto but there's still a chunk left to be counted out there. the big news in the house, democratic campaign chairman sean patrick maloney, he conceded his race in a big pick up for republicans. >> and this hour we'll also have reports from key battleground states that have big uncalled races. the latest from the white house ahead of president biden's remarks at 4:00 this afternoon, 4:00 eastern, and we will look ahead to a potential 2020 primary matchup between former president trump and florida

governor ron desantis. a matchup that's already dividing the party >> let's get into it here. we are joined by our panel michael steele, former rnc chair, robert gibbs, former maryland congresswoman edwards and you used to work for kevin mccarthy as well, i think, we'll talk about that, maria, president and ceo of vote latino is here and nbc's ellison barber on the ground in georgia for us. brendon, let me start with you, the news we're getting in, i don't see brendon, do we have him. >> the ghost of brendon. >> there he is. >> oh, man, gang, this is really going off the rails. we're still on track. thank goodness. the news in the last couple minutes here, you know, as expected, kevin mccarthy, now according to jake sherman, announced his bid for the house leadership and right before the

break, senate minority leader mitch mcconnell not dealing in feelings, he's going to see how the vote count comes in several races still to come. talk us through how you're seeing the landscape as it stands just after 1:00 eastern? >> yeah. the divide is not great. a lot of frustration a lot of anxiety a lot of shock, frankly. members trying to understand what went wrong, the confidence they had, how it slipped away. kevin mccarthy doesn't have room to sit around and wait and he's moving forward. i get why he's doing it. they're going to have leadership elections next week. it's going to be interesting to see how it goes. a leadership election inside the conference doesn't matter a whole lot. he needs 50% of his colleagues to nominate him to be speaker, but ultimately he has to get 218 votes on the house floor in january. he could easily slide through an election inside the conference, but two months from now, when

they actually go to the floor, that's an eternity. what i will be looking for, are there the freedom caucus members, far right of the conference r they going to try to extort anything out of kevin mccarthy for their vote to be speaker? i think he has the inside track to be the next speaker. i think members want him to be the next speaker, but only takes -- a margin of three or four or five seats it only takes that many folks to say i'm not going to give my vote to you unless, what those are we'll have to figure out, but i expect there will be conflict from now to january when the real vote is >> i know you had painful experience at times working with speakers who were really frustrated by the freedom caucus and others and has become far more aggressive and their extreme members, marjorie taylor greene and others that didn't crop up at that time. talk about the effect of donald trump? because hasn't donald trump been

discredited to a certain degree by last night's results? it was mccarthy's embrace of donald trump that brought him to this leadership position in the first place >> sure. it goes -- cuts both ways. obviously, kevin mccarthy has had a close relationship with donald trump and i think that's what strengthened him within the conference and why kevin mccarthy has been able to keep the freedom caucus at bay. i think we all agree donald trump has some blame to take for this election. his brand is hurting the republican party. the party problem is, we're not a very introspective party. i don't think there's going to be a lot of dereflex among republicans right now. i'm sure they're trying to figure out what happened, but what they won't say out loud is that donald trump was the problem. until someone is willing to say it out loud i don't think much will stay. >> michael steele. >> i couldn't agree more. >> you should see the faces he's

making. >> you should have seen my face, you nailed it. there is no geez, what do we do, how did this happen? that's not how we look at these things. it's cold, critical calculations that are made along the political scale and kevin mccarthy is right making the move he's making, irrespective of where the vote is in the house, it's sending a signal he's going to put things in play. he wants to put things in motion to set the table before it's set by marjorie taylor greene and others. the backside of this are two pieces. one, is donald trump. i still don't believe that this is going to be a clean, smooth transition for kevin mccarthy. >> you think? >> when you get to late december, early january, donald trump may have a thing or two to say about who the next speaker is going to be. >> if past is press department he will use social media. >> how many years have we been

talking about kevin mccarthy how he worked with donald trump in the white house. this is like for him, years in the making. >> and all the arrows he's taken. >> all the arrows. but the second piece is, you've already heard some of the tell from the freedom caucus folks who like a jim jordan or someone else, to brendan's point how do they leverage to get and extract something. keep in mind, when we had a more significant majority in the house, republicans took out not one, but two republican speakers in paul ryan and john boehner. >> i think he remembers that. >> you have a narrow majority here. the power shifts inside that caucus tremendously. >> to jake sherman, co-founder of punch bowl news and msnbc contributor and no one better to ask this question about kevin mccarthy and, perhaps, his next very slim majority. >> yeah. god, i have a lot of thoughts.

do we have the hour? i think -- >> we have a couple hours. >> there is a lot to unpack here. number one, the question i told this to katy earlier when we spoke not on television, but the question isn't whether kevin mccarthy is able to become the speaker. there are -- the house is an institution in which there is tremendous amount of leeway to do things to make people happy. the question is what does he have to give up to become speaker? john boehner and paul ryan, both who brendon worked for both of those men, have had to go through this at various times in their career as well. the demands that right is putting on kevin mccarthy are ridiculous and he should -- he would be crazy to accept them. why would he be crazy? because once he starts giving in to the right on any issue he's going to have to give in to them on every issue and it's not a precedence he wants to set.

i spoke to him this fall when he thought he would win 25 to 30 seats and said i don't deal well with leverage. i agree with brendan. he has the inside track, but it is an eternity until january and i think he will become speaker. jim jordan cannot get 218 votes, i don't think, nor does he want to. i don't know how mccarthy is going to get there, but that doesn't mean i don't think he will. he will. it's going to be extremely bumpy and there are just tons of speed bumps in the way between now and january 3rd. >> there's also a question of how do you run that conference with the knowledge that you've got to try to win again in '24 and what do you go after and pursue and how much gridlock do you allow that might end up hurting you and what sort of, i don't know, hearings you might allow jim jordan to conduct? i want to ask you a curveball about georgia. say it comes down to georgia,

control of the senate, which it likely could and there's a month now before we're going to find out what happens in that runoff, how does a lame duck congress function with that hanging over its head? >> this is just the most important question, katy, that we have in front of us in washington for the next eight or so weeks. because the government runs out of money on december 16th. the georgia runoff is right then. you have a matter of days to fund the government, potentially raise the debt limit and do a host of serious heavy lift legislating with very little time on the clock and furthermore, these deals are typically conducted between the four corners, the speaker, minority leader, senate majority leader senate minority leader. there is no chance, i think brendan would agree with me, virtually no chance kevin mccarthy could be part of any of those discussions even if he supports them. no way. because his conference is going to be vehemently opposed.

this puts just a massive, massive amount of pressure on the rest of the institution going into the end of this year. >> jake sherman, thanks so much. all over this leadership struggle and congress, of course. thank you. i want to bring in nbc's chief white house correspondent kristen welker outside the white house. so, kristen, georgia, you covered herschel walker and interview him in his hometown. what's your take on how this runoff will shape up? >> well, andrea, first of all, i think that all sides were anticipating this. i just heard from someone within the walker campaign who said that as soon as this seemed to be where things were heading overnight, that they started to launch the runoff campaign. so all sides were bracing for this. this is a senior biden aide who said this, this is what we expected. we are feeling upbeat, a runoff without brian kemp on the ticket helping walker is a great shot

for warnock. there's no doubt that control of the senate could come down to georgia, as it did two years ago, so this is certainly familiar terrain for all sides. the question i think, andrea, that's going to be interesting, will we see president biden campaign for senator raphael warnock? he was not there during the first part of this race, and, of course, you saw warnock kind of trying to distance himself. what we saw overnight were some victories for some candidates who embraced president biden, including john fetterman, who, of course, was locked in that very tough race in pennsylvania. that remains an open question, as we've been reporting, though, president biden is expected to speak today in just a few hours from now and expected to take questions as well. those will be i think among the types of questions that we will be looking to get answers to. then more bradley speaking, andrea, the white house really relieve, feeling somewhat emboldened today because they were afraid there would be the red wave that did not materialize, but the question

becomes where can they find common ground with republicans if, in fact, republicans do take control of the house. what happens next? how will they respond to those investigations that are potentially looming? we are told that president will talk about the issue of abortion, the importance of that, in these midterm elections. so a lot at stake when we expect to hear from president biden in just a few hours from now. >> and kristen, 2024 is already happening, even though it's 2022. you know, don't everybody yell at once. because of donald trump's, you know, anticipated announcement and ron desantis' hugely successful florida victim and the rivalry brewing on the republican side and now what does president biden do? how does he calculate it? >> two-thirds of those in the exit polls did not want him to seek re-election and that -- you know, there was a rejection of his policies overall and people thinking that his

policies are taking us in the wrong direction? how does he frame this decision? >> that is going to be the key question, andrea, and there is no doubt that those numbers are staggering and that president has to be taking a hard look at that. i spoke with one of his top advuzers who said look, he's always said he intends to run for re-election. that has not changed as of today and yet he has not made a final decision. he will huddle with family members to reach the final decision ultimately. the pressure is going to be on him to make that final decision because if he decides to bow out, at this point in time no signs he will do that, he will want to make way for someone else. that, of course, on the table as well today as we prepare to address the president in just a few hours from now. >> kristen welker, thank you very much. i want to ask you about something we saw in the nbc news exit polls, it showed the number of people that want to see joe biden run for president again overwhelming number of people said no.

you looked in the cross tabs, what do you do if you're the white house? >> well two things. i think it's important to look, as we were talking about this, krotss tabs. 83% of democrats say they do want to see a biden run. i think what that does is gives him the political space that's important to make a personal decision. you know, i think what kristen said, what we've heard, even joe biden saying in interviews he intends to run. every president intends to run. now they have to make this intentionally personal decision about what they're going to do. i think that's going to be a meeting there. we'll see what the family decides, we'll see when they set up a legal apparatus, when do they start hiring people. i think the this number in the exit poll gives them a little bit of space to make that decision. >> does it matter if it's trump running or if it's desantis running? does that make the decision for him? >> probably hard, given what i think the republican primary will be like, to understand who

that person is going to be when he has to make ha decision. i think the the one thing joe biden can take out of this exit poll of all voters is, i'm -- i don't have the number in front of me, but my guess is that number is lower for people that want to see donald trump run. if you're a democrat thinking if get the nomination i'm a 50/50 shot, right. if i'm running against trump i'm probably better than a 50/50 shot. that's what's going to animate part of that decision making. one of the things, it's a very easy decision about whether he goes to georgia or not. you ask the warnock campaign, am i helpful, if the answer is yes, you gas up. if the answer is no, you call barack obama and bill clinton or somebody else and -- look, i remember being in the white house when we had to make some of these decisions and had to talk about them. i'm happy to take a couple bad questions in the briefing room why my boss isn't going go and then six weeks later win that race. that's far more important than

the spin of that day. >> on georgia let's go to ellison barber to give us the view on the ground in georgia. she is joining us now. talk to us about the last hour and a half or so, not even, since we've seen the projection for the georgia runoff. what are you hearing? >> yeah. a lot changing, a lot very quickly changing, but not unexpected based on what we've seen in the polling. kristen welker reporting herschel walker's campaign have told her, they have told us in the past they very much knew this could be a possibility, so did warnock's campaign, but it was a possibility both campaigns were hoping they could avoid. we do expect to hear from georgia secretary of state on the election results in about an hour. this morning we've already seen the two campaign managers going back and forth on twitter with warnock's campaign manager tweeting at herschel walker he under performed trump's vote share in rural suburban and urban counties. he ended up calling last night a

good night for his candidate, incumbent senator warnock and bad one for walker. walker's campaign manager replying saying 50% voted against the incumbent that spend more than $100 million. this has been a fascinating race. you had two candidates who had very well likability, name recognition in the state. herschel walker because he is a legendary football player in the state. senator warnock, someone well-known, given his position at ebenezer baptist church and also well liked. i think back to one of the very first campaign ads we saw here from national republicans that essentially started by saying, hey, we know that you think senator warnock is a good guy, but he votes with president joe biden x amount of time. we started where both of these candidates had high name recognition, both relatively well liked as people. then we saw this race just get more and more intense, more and

more messy. you had a lot of allegations and questions about republican herschel walker's personal life in this race. he was accused by two women of paying for and encouraging them to have an abortion. he is a staunch anti-abortion candidate. he denied those allegations. but from some republican leaning voters who i spoke to, that gave them a bit of pause here and you do have the fact that warnock spent a ton of money, outspent herschel walker by $78 million but they are still going to a runoff. this is a state that seems incredibly polarized, more polarized than purpose. >> ellison barber in atlanta, thank you. brendon buck, talk to us a little bit about how you see georgia given the numbers that we've been seeing and the exit polling and where this race is headed here? >> yeah. brian kemp not being on the ballot is going to be a huge deal in georgia. brian kemp is a very popular governor but doesn't have a

great relationship with herschel walker. obviously, we know that donald trump and kemp had a bit of a fight and herschel walker was donald trump's candidate. and in the primary, when brian kemp was facing a challenge, herschel walker didn't do anything to help him and brian kemp remembers that. while herschel walker was struggling throughout this general election to get to that 50%, brian kemp didn't do anything to lift a finger for him. i will be curious to see whether the kemp apparatus, popular in georgia, comes out to try to save herschel walker at this point. i have to think just the two of them head to head with so much at stake and a lot of frankly momentum for democrats right now, that the runoff is going to favor warnock. we saw this two years ago. we saw a lot of democratic energy come in and steal away a republican seat in the deep south, so if i'm the walker campaign i'm nervous going into

a runoff. >> stacy abrams lost the governorship but there's no doubt her campaign transformed georgia. let's go out west and get an update from our reporters still in those not yet called races. joining me from phoenix is von hill lard and las vegas guad venegas. give us an update on what's happening in arizona? >> i think that we just got some new numbers here from the maricopa county recorders office and what these numbers are ultimately going to be telling us is the fact that we will not likely know the results out of arizona until thursday night. you can see the governor's race, a 12,000 gap now separating katy hobbs from kari lake and blake masters, he is a larger gap, more room he has to make up here. there is a particular batch of about 275,000 ballots that we do not know the trend lines, whether they will favor katie hobbs or kari lake. these are mail ballots instead

of mailing them back they walked into the polling places and hand delivered them. maricopa officials say that they will not tabulate those ballots until tomorrow and will not release the results of several tens of thousands until tomorrow night probably around 9:00 eastern. everybody should take a pause here over the next 36 hours because there's a lot more tabulating of votes to do. we're talking about in maricopa 400,000 ballots. >> take a breath is the lesson here. from you know about that state, do you have an idea of who is more likely, what political affiliation is more likely to get a ballot in the mail and walk to drop it off? >> right. this is the difficulty aspect of it. in 2018 i'm going to take you back here, election night martha mcsally had the lead and it was this batch of votes, mail ballots that actually, surged

keerson cinema to serving a term in the united states senate. 2020, it was those ballots that benefitted donald trump. what we saw his -- what was a large gap between him and joe biden ultimately come down to 10,500 votes he won those ballots by 55% to 45%. so that is where there's a lot of question marks. i think we should note also if i may, tonight we're going to be getting more results here out of maricopa county and over the course of the night we saw kari lake shrink the margin and may and could be anticipating thobs re-expand her lead tonight. those were ballots received saturday, sunday, monday and hobbs has overwhelmingly won votes mailed back. you should see the 12,000 margin balloon back up before tomorrow likely shrinking again. matter of whether kari lake is able to ellipse katie hobbs.

for blake masters it's tougher, guys. >> you have a lot of waiting to do as they count the ballots. thank you so much. quad is in nevada, the other state too close to call. republicans are up in the senate and governor's races, though. when will we know? >> we are told it could be a few days until they count the mail-in ballots. i was listening to von, a lot of the same is happening here except here, we're paying attention to two counties, the second largest, we have an idea of how many mail-in ballots came in. less than 20,000. that's good to get an understanding of when you see how close the races are. the other counties clarke county where the vast majority of voters are in nevada we don't know how many mail-in votes came

in on election day. the race for the u.s. senate, the incumbent and adam laxalt the challenger up by 23,000 votes. that's the difference. it's narrow. we need an understanding of how many mail-in votes came in, how many ballots came in here to clarke county to see what this lead means for adam laxalt. he's up by 22,000. say clarke county has 100,000 ballots they still have to count cortez masto has a chance of catching up. but we won't find out until maybe an hour and a half for now when they're speaking to the press. that's when we'll get answers and tell us how many mail-in ballots they have. more details to see how long it will take to have some more information here. >> it's not just, quad, the nevada senate race where we still don't a projection, we're waiting for the vote count to come in, but the nevada governor's race when you look at

the issues that have been at play, crime, as you know, former sheriff, against the incumbent democrat, the economy when you look at the inflation numbers nevada is seeing. >> in that race, you look at the difference, lombardo the challenge is about 40,000 votes up from governor steve sisolak. talking to nonpartisan voters and what could happen here from what they told us, you can see some split tickets from these nonpartisans. a lot told us when i vote and i mentioned the nonpartisans because there's a large number of nonpartisan voters in nevada told us, i might be voting for catherine cortez masto and joe lombardo. we could see split tickets. things look better for joe lombardo with the 40,000 votes for lombardo and laxalt, the two republicans up, they're waiting to see how many votes still have to get counted here in clarke

county to have an understanding of what it means to have that type of lead. only then will we have an idea what officials have told us, is that it could be a few days until they are done counting all of these votes. we have to wait and see how many votes they have inside the processing center. >> we will set our alarms for 2:30 today for that news conference outing of clarke county. thank you very much. let's bring in maria teresa comar to get into this. what are you watching for? >> right now, in nevada specifically in arizona, we have been looking for what is the turnout of young latinos. young latinos, folks may not realize, the larger share of the latino voting population in the states and they have been lagging behind in -- since last results on monday. that is going to help determine who is going to control the senate. in georgia one of the things that folks didn't realize but in georgia between the last -- between election day and the

special runoff day, back when warnock won, there were 50,000 youth that turned 18 during that four week, six week period. voter latino registered 15% of folks and that is a silver lightning for the democrats if they are able to run a robust voter effort on top of their mobilization effort. >> thank you so much. good to see you. listen, there is a question today, i know we're talking 2022, i know we are, but also simultaneously talking 2024 because there are implications what happens this week and what's going to happen in a couple years. is that annoying to you? maybe. let's be real, we got to talk about it, right. specifically, what happens with the donald trump factor. look what happened in florida and now call the ron desantis factor there, let's talk about it. ryan nobles joining us from west

palm beach and fill, deputy editor for the "washington post." ali, let me start with you, if you look at who had a strong night, governor ron desantis with people chanting two more years instead of four, baufrs because of the speculation around a 2024 run. "the new york post" i think we have that graphic. not desantis, but defuture. talk us through. >> yeah. this is a conversation that republicans, clever, yes, have been having over the course of the last year and a half. every time i have gone to a cpac gathering or other conservative conference there have been straw polls down that show donald trump leading the pac but ron desantis right there seen as the heir apparent to the trump mantle if you take trump out of the straw polls. everything is unofficial but at the same time it's a good gauge of how the republican party is

thinking what its future might look like. still in the trump image, but maybe not with trump himself as the standard bearer. we also know that that's probably what the former president's mindset is too because he's out giving nicknames and voice to the schism that has been in place between desantis a former ally of his and trump. this is something i've been hearing about from sources but the fact it's being litigated put the nickname out for desantis a few days before desantis' re-election here, a day before trump came to the state and campaigned, not with desantis, but with senator marco rubio, it's clear that there's some bad blood brewing here already, and it's annoying to talk about presidential politics when it's 2022, but first of all, we love this stuff and we do it so that no one else has to but this is what the reality is. the day after the midterms are over, it's when we immediately pivot to what's next because all the candidates are doing that.

operatives are doing that and donors are doing that. they're ready to start seeing what the field might look like. again, it's not just ron desantis who is probably thinking about this. it's trump but also people like nikki haley, rick scott, mike pompeo. we know the names people thinking about it. now is the time when we start talking about it >> considering how many tailor swift lyrics you can work in to discussing these races. >> so many. >> the standoff between the men. the bad blood. >> ryan, glad you explained it. >> i'm not a taylor swift person. >> you didn't get it. >> sorry. >> that was brilliant. >> trump was a drag on lots of candidates last night. he's still claiming victory. his last post on truth social, quote, 174 wins and 9 losses. great evening. amazing job by some really fantastic candidates. he also had seriously high profile defeats like dr. oz, doug mastriano in pennsylvania,

tudor nixon in michigan, bolduc in new hampshire. the public messaging put what are the private whispers in trump world right now? >> first of all, thanks for not putting me on the spot with taylor swift lyrics. i could have gone there if you asked me. i'm glad i didn't to take that challenge. >> i'm going to get lyrics in and throw you all over the bridge. >> but to get back to the thoughts in trump world this is not the narrative that they were expecting when donald trump called all of this closest advisors to mar-a-lago last night for what he expected to be the type of party where he could take credit for everything an the fact that now they're being forced to deal with this narrative that perhaps he was a drag on some of these candidates, that he had hoped would win, and maybe could be preventing the republicans from taking control of the senate, and a much narrow, much more

narrow majority in the house, is a big problem for trump as he makes the case that he is the most dominant candidate in the 2024 election. trump is already doing what trump does, right. finding a way to spin these results in his -- to his benefit. he's focusing on the fact that he did put out a ton of endorsements over the course of the 2022 campaign and just focusing on those largely noncompetitive races where his candidates were successful and he's either ignoring the results in places like pennsylvania or finding blame. for instance, in the race in new hampshire, where he claimed that don bolduc, the republican nominee there, didn't focus enough on the 2020 election in his race against the incumbent maggie hassan which hassan won easily. this is all against the backdrop of what ali was talking about. he's already announced plans for a major announcement next week here in palm beach and whether or not that is still going to be to announce a race for president

we have to wait and see. this is not the narrative that trump and his team were expecting to come out of the results from last night. >> if trump does announce, which i think it looks like he's going to, and if desantis says listen, look what i've been able to do and what trump is not able to do, i'm also going to get in this race, my question is, how ugly does it get and damaging does it get? we had trump yesterday saying he knows secrets about ron desantis and only his wife knows. reminded me of stuff he went after ted cruz with in 2016 >> yeah. katy, it could certainly get ugly. we know hoy nasty the campaigns can be when trump is one of the candidates. we should keep in mind the attacks can go each way and seen trump for the last several years be the dominant force in the republican party, but he's been unchallenged largely within the republican party. he's never had a florida governor coming off a massive re-election campaign the way ron

desantis is as a potential rival take it to him and go to the voters and say i know how to win and broaden the coalition of voters to get back the white house but i can get things done and govern. that's the message you could see a ron desantis take to trump and i think we'd be foolinging ourselves to think trump runs through as the favorite. i think it could be difficult for him to navigate the environment and last night showed there are limitations to the breath of appeal that trump has across the broad electorate >> as -- >> michael steele about that, if desantis and trump firing back at each other, how damaging is that fort party in '24? >> i think in one respect you could say it's hugely damaging because you've got this dynamic where clearly desantis is generating a lot of energy around his efforts in florida that have expanded across the political universe inside the

gop but then you've got the -- the trump factor, which is, an unknown. i've been saying for some time now, i think a lot of folks in the press and certainly a lot of people in politics aren't really catching on is, trump hasn't engaged yet. trump is just sitting there saying i'm very, very much considering possibly doing. >> probably. >> probably. when he decides to do it, it changes the way people look at him and respond to him real time inside the party. that's what we've seen play out in the past. >> so you think desantis does not do it? >> i'm not 100% convinced. i've talked to some desantis people who are like, they're looking to '28 because they think this is going to be more of a hot mess. >> is that a chris kristi mistake. >> you also have some of the desantis people like he's ready to play, depending on how what i

just say, plays out. >> he can't jump in too fast. he's just been re-elected and he could take credit arguably, chuck todd was pointing this out for several new congressional house seats because of the way he gerrymandered and forced through the redistricting in florida. single handedly really. and added to the list of house seats. >> he can't take credit for anything beyond florida. and that's the important metric here. trump arguably can. you know, if -- you know, we have a governorship in arizona, he can take credit for that. yeah, he lost pennsylvania, but you look at where else trump has influenced and has some impact and that is the competing interest rates right now. >> i think it comes back to something you said at the top of the show, what are voters saying. ali and ryan knows it, there are people who are like hey, i dig

donald trump, i love something fresh. >> let's talk about numbers now because as we've been discussing control of the senate still hangs in the balance with key races in arizona and nevada. they're still to be called, georgia race headed for a runoff. i want to bring in tom, the ceo of target smart political data analytics company. tom, looking at what's out there in maricopa county and clarke county, how are you reading those races and what happens with the libertarian votes going one way or the other or dividing between walker and -- between walker, you know, and warnock or staying snoem. >> these are the key questions we're expecting and these things change on a moment by moment basis. we're waiting to hear from clarke county, nevada where

almost 75% of the votes are coming from and the state is coming from about how many votes. right now, democrats believe they're about 100,000 votes still to be counted from clarke county, nevada. those are overwhelmingly mail votes which were overwhelmingly democratic votes. if those numbers bear out that's a good sign for cortez masto and the other thing we have to keep in mind, something we've seen in other states, mail ballots can keep coming in and we have to keep watching for a while here. similarly, in arizona, maricopa county as you know, there are hundreds of thousands of votes in arizona. what we've seen so far in arizona is that mark kelly, what we've been reporting through the early voting period mark kelly was over performing with the early votes. this is one that's looking to be very close.

at this point there are certainly a lot of things that the kelly campaign has to feel good about in georgia in the runoff another big question is the time period. we have to remember it's only a four-week runoff. that means mail ballots which were a big advantage for democrats not just in georgia but around the country, won't be as big of a factor in georgia in the runoff. that said, senator warnock and his team know how to win in these situations and did it two years ago and they will be looking to do it again next month. >> and tom, what are the possible senate accident nos you're -- scenarios which one goes which way and georgia becomes the all-in race? >> we'll know more in terms of the landscape, right, and that republicans need to win at this point two of those three remaining seats to be called. arizona is one that i don't think they feel as good about right now. if that goes they have to run

the table and they would have to win nevada and then win georgia in a runoff. that's difficult. again, if these numbers we're hearing out of clarke county that we're seeing potentially another 100,000 votes coming in, and we shoulden finding out about that momentarily, that makes nevada looks difficult for them too. they're facing an uphill battle. it's not that it can't be done but they are facing a scenario if they don't win arizona or nevada, then the runoff isn't for control anymore. >> we'll see what happens. we have news from steve scalise making it official not going to be challenging kevin mccarthy, will be running for majority leader, though, officially. that is if the republicans take back the house. over to colorado, it was a good night for democrats they took the governor's mansion, the senate, ag's office and four out of six house races called so far. two including the surprising race that has lauren boebert trailing, are still uncalled at

this hour. you can see how close the margin is right there. let us bring in colorado democratic senator michael bennett who won again last night, won his re-election. senator, always good to have you. what do you chalk this up to? >> i chalk this up to a relentless economic message about how 40 years of washington consensus, about outsourcing and about trickle down economics isn't working for the american people and it was a clear distinction between me and my opponent on that. it's a repudiation of donald trump's chaos and recognition that we actually made progress capping drug prices for season, for example, requiring medicare to negotiate on behalf of the american people, and i think that, you know, the overturning of roe versus wade was something that was -- made people furious. that combination of the three

things made it a very good night in colorado. >> senator bennett, it's hallie. i wonder how much you see the trump factor at play in your race. i spoke with your opponent a couple days before the election and asked about that and he was clear as he said before, he is his own man. we know the former president went after him in colorado. how much do you see that as being a factor in your victory and return to the senate? >> yeah. i don't think it was a huge factor because i don't think my opponent was ever very persuasive on that subject. he voted twice for donald trump, and he got religion three weeks before the election day, but i do think it's fascinating to see counties, you know these counties well, like douglas county where i only lost by 6 points last night, el paso county where i only lost by 6 points last night, those are places democrats historically, including myself, you know, expect to lose by as much as 20 points. what we saw in red in rural colorado was something very different this year.

>> senator, looking ahead to 2024, that's painful, we're barely surviving after being up all night on 2022, but our exit polling shows two-thirds of voters do not want president biden to run again. you align with the president certainly before the midterms. where do you stand on whether biden 2024 should be the candidate? the standard bearer after seeing these results? >> let me say i do think we're going to win in nevada and in arizona and that's going to give us a real shot at georgia as well which i'm really excited about before we go to '24. i'm going to say what you would probably expect, this is up to president biden to decide. he's going to have to consider a lot of different factors in making this decision. he was the one person out of 330 million people that beat donald trump and i think that if there were a rematch based on the results we saw last night, i

don't think there's any doubt that he would beat donald trump again. >> what do you think of the lauren boebert race? >> it's amazing. i talked to her opponent today. the race is very, very close and i think she's going to have a hard time making up her deficit and i think this is what happens when you treat your constituents with contempt and spend all of your time on national television instead of doing the hard work that people of the western slope of colorado deserve in pueblo colorado deserve out of their congressional representative. we should know something later today. >> is colorado a purple state or would you say that colorado is a blue state? >> i would say it's a purple state. katy, we have the largest registration by far in colorado are unaffiliated voters and why anybody in one of these jobs is smart to try to run like you're

20 points behind, which is how i treated this race and i treated every one of my races. i don't -- i think colorado will be a purple state for a long time to come. >> let's talk if the senate is as tight as we think it's going to be, it's going to be tight, right, how do you see the role of one of your colleagues, for example, listen, this is hypothetical, senator joe manchin? what are your governing priorities in the senate if the house does end up with a house speaker kevin mccarthy looking to reconcile bills on that front from a governing perspective? >> i think it's going to be honestly very difficult with the house led by kevin mccarthy. i have not had trouble finding republicans in the senate to work with, but i mean, mccarthy is so -- so beholden to donald trump, maybe that will change. i doubt it will, which means that it's going to be, you know, there's going to be a lot of friction in the air. the senate can continue to approve judges and i think we

should pass bills that show what we stand for compared to what mccarthy and the republicans stand for and that needs to be, as i said, a very explicit economic message that is going to resonate with working people in red and blue parts of america. the democrat -- long overdue from the democratic party. we've begun turning the page, bringing the semiconductor industry back, fighting and winning those wins over pharma we've been fighting for for generation, but there's more we can do. we can pass bills to reverse trump tax cuts for the rich and extend my tax cuts for working people that i wrote with sherrod brown. i think there's ways of creating distinctions and looking for opportunities to work together if we can find places where we can get stuff done on behalf of the american people senator bennett, thank you so much for being with us and congratulations on your evictory. >> up next, the misinformation

flooding social media, as the right's hopes of a red wave falls short. ben collins joins us on our coverage of the 2022 midterms. this is msnbc. rage of the 2022 . this is msnbc. the abcs of ckd a is for awareness, because knowing that your chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes could progress to dialysis is important. b is for belief that there may be more you can do. just remember that k is for kidneys and kerendia. for adults living with ckd in type 2 diabetes, kerendia is proven to reduce the risk of kidney failure, which can lead to dialysis. kerendia is a once-daily tablet that treats ckd differently than type 2 diabetes medications to help slow the progression of kidney damage and reduce the risk of cardiovascular events, such as heart attacks. do not take kerendia if you have problems with your adrenal glands or take certain medications called cyp3a4 inhibitors. kerendia can cause hyperkalemia, which is high potassium levels in your blood. ask your doctor before taking products containing potassium. kerendia can also cause low blood pressure

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republicans are not seeing the red wave they hoped for, and in fact, we have just gotten another concession, this is from election denying lee zeldin, the republican who really tried and competed very hard to defeat kathy hochul in her first actual competition, because she had not actually run before for governor. but zeldin's concession had not come last night, but he did concede today. many are hoping that the base will accept these results. for more on this and the misinformation that comes from election denial, which was spreading last night, nbc news senior reporter ben collins. so ben, where's ben? [ laughter ] >> ben is usually right here.

>> it is the 900-foot table. >> special coverage. >> yes. >> ben, talk about what you were seeing last night, because there were a number of election deniers who were trying to repeat the trump news and in the middle of a race that was not even that close. >> yes. that's exactly right. and i think there was a moment in the evening, i was watching all of the shows, infowars and more, and there was a moment they realized, wait a second, we don't have a plan for this, red wave all the time, high on their own supply and a moment where they looked up at their actual results and realized the red wave was not there, and it was fascinating watching it happen, because they live in, they are so sectioned off in reality in these spaces, where the idea that things aren't going right, that things aren't going to work out at the end of the day for them, it's just not possible, and then when it becomes reality, they have to really adjust. and i think they did have a

backup plan really quickly, where they thought worse comes to worse, it will be 50-49 over arizona, we will contest everything and make it hell for everybody. but that might not actually matter, if democrats win nevada, you know, contesting that state is not going to matter for the senate. so they are on their back foot right now. and i think they are really, look, i'm not saying steve bannon is looking inward, but i'm saying for the first time he might actually have to reflect. >> one of the things that you were talking about during the commercial break, ben, is you think that dominion, alex jones, it really matters. >> i think so. i think if you consistently over and over again realize that this might have consequences to private figures, it's money. to lie about election officials, to lie about a company that will sue are for billions of dollars, which is what places like fox news and newsmax are facing,

that stuff can't siphon all the way up to the top anymore. that's stuff that may have ended up on fox news at the end of the day, that started on a blog or fortune, but it gets stuck, it gets stuck in the zones where only the people who are already committed, people like alex jones, people like the gateway pundit, who are already sued by these people, mike lindell, they are the only ones talking about the fraud, where on fox news, they have to face reality. >> they end up being broke regardless. what about the rest of the dark inner webs that you look through? anything interesting? >> look, there is a large portion, the people who planned the insurrection still have their forum and gave up on democracy a long time ago, and by the way, we should have factored this in a little bit move before people started voting, i think. there is a large section of the trump base that does not want to vote anymore, they want to get violent, and maybe those people didn't show up.

>> ben collins, good to have you on, the expert on all of this. good to see you in person. >> a lot more coming up on the next hour of special coverage right here on msnbc and we will hear from georgia's secretary of state and the latest on the vote count in nevada in clark county and a quick goodbye, and sneak out to my other job on the nbc news side, but you will be in very capable hands with andrea and katy. see you in a bit. when they can enjoy the best? eggland's best. the only eggs with more fresh and delicious taste. plus, superior nutrition. which is now more important than ever. only eggland's best.

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