you've got a governor, too late

to call. nevada secretary of state, with a republican winning those elections is himself in an election denier. that's too early to call. nevada attorney general race, still not called. in nevada, as long as your ballot was postmarked on or before election day, it has until saturday to arrive and still get counted. tonight, the states biggest county, quite county, which is home to las vegas, just interstate 60,000 mail-in ballots were retrieved from dropbox's on election day. that's not in the mail, it is actually dropped in, and thereby election day. the question is, what is outstanding is nevada? will it be enough? is that vote of whatever character that it's going to be enough to push democrats over the edge, which is what they're

hoping? when do we expect it? i've been talking about this all evening already. joining us now from nevada is the man himself, john ralston, ceo of the nevada independent, and our longtime nevada quarterback. john, it's great to see you, thank you for being with us tonight. >> tell me about the character of the outstanding vote. obviously, we can see what the vote totals are between the candidates, and all of the statewide races. there's a ton of them, not even mentioning the house races. in terms of what has not been counted yet, what are you expecting from that outstanding vote in terms of the partisan cast? >> it is going to be interesting to watch, rachel, the democrats have done very well in the mail balloting so far, in the batch that was just released, the first outstanding ballot batch was 14,000 ballots. catherine cortez masto, the u.s. senator was behind by 23,000 before that.

5000 out of 14, 000, and so she is now down, as you can see on the screen there, by only 18,000 votes statewide. that is a 65%, 30% win in the first batch. there are 84,000 altogether that we know, and so if they were to keep up that pace, and that's a big if, she would be in the lead in the race. rachel, there's more than that. there are 61,000 mail ballots that we don't know about in terms of what they're character is. it's a little bit of a closer county in the partisan breakdown. it's very even. we're not sure the democrats can pick up as much there, and one other detail to throw in is that there are a few thousand ballots, and we're not quite sure how many are left in nevada, this will heavily favor laxalt, although will probably only gain a few thousand votes there.

it's very uncertain still, but that first batch of clark county ballots -- >> it's alex wagner here. in terms of those votes, and who cast what, can you give us a sense of the vote effort? >> carrie reid is no longer there, he paid a pivotal role in organizing the vote effort in the state of nevada. the culinary workers union is democratic, how effective do you think their efforts were? is it meaningful to the average culinary worker is a 44-year-old latina at a moment where we're talking about such a pocketbook issue, economic issues, do you think that helps the democrats message going into the elections? >> that's a great question, and a very relevant question. as rachel mentioned, there were about 60,000 ballots that were taken from this drop boxes that were put in there yesterday. guess which union ran a drop

box campaign with its members to help catherine cortez masto and the democratic ticket? that's right, the culinary union. it's interesting that you mentioned the profile of the latino worker for the culinary. it's such an integral cog in the machine, they are the hispanic turnout machine and made that. to turn out with that 44 year old latina, the first latina ever elected to the u.s. senate, has been a motivating factor for the union members. i think the democrats hope that the huge proportion of the 60,000 ballots that came in yesterday into this but dropbox is, were culinary driven, and therefore we're really helping the democratic ticket up and down. >> joe, i know that prognosticating should not be something that any of us do without talking through the data. but as an election observer in nevada, you can feel the

currents here better than anybody else that i know, which is why have been talking about the elections for so long now. do you feel at the end of the day that the democrats have a shot at the senators? race >> do you feel like the democratic links there are impregnable, or do you think -- bottom line are reasonable? >> the hopes in the senate race are very reasonable, although by no means assured, rachel. as i mentioned, if they keep up the current pace in clark county, she is going to cut deeply into that statewide lead, and perhaps even take the lead. although it may not be practical to think that the 65%, all of those ballots, but if she gets 60% of the ballot. if she's going to win that race being equal. remember one other thing, there's more mail coming in, as long as you mentioned. it is postmarked on tuesday, and coming in through saturday.

that's probably going to favor the democrats as well. >> having said that, the governor's race feels like a bridge too far, because of the margin there. and so it would really have to be a huge, huge mailed win and margins in there for steve cisa lack to overtake joe lumbar no. as you see there, the margin is twice what catherine cortez masto is behind by. but i think that this is going to be a poll for the rest of the democratic statewide ticket, for many of them over the top, including very importantly, the man running against one of the worst election deniers in the nation, jim arshad, his running for secretary of state. >> john ralston, ceo than yvette independent, absolutely indispensable, as always. john, thank you so much for your time tonight. it is interesting, we talked about introducing john, talking about how blunt spoken he is on

these things. he's saying that catherine cortez masto has a real shot, it sounds like he does not think that steve has as good of a shot. we also have to look at that secretary of state race, and there are outstanding or house races there as well. nevada, i don't know when we're going to get all of that ballot, and i don't know how these are going to go. nevada and arizona are really going to be down to the wire. >> nevada has this wisconsin-like quality, where you just know it is going to be extremely close, extremely fingernail, and it's really interesting but because bolduc, you've got these statewide races, and these could be two incumbents, they're only running 18,000 votes in part. we should be clear about that. i remember having him on our show, and i thought during the pandemic, hit one of the hardest jobs in the entire country, which is shutting down las vegas. truly one of the -- in he had to do it, and you can

tell he was tortured, and ticked off about it. he tried to navigate an incredibly difficult situation. arguably the most difficult in the nation. to the extent that you see that 18,000 vote difference there, in particular them new nominating a clark county politician to run against him, which is very crucial, that explains some of them. >> there are a bunch of good pieces of news for democrats, and it's always a relief when john ralston says something aligned with what i'm hearing. democrats who are watching this very closely say that one of the more ballots that come in, the better it is for course catherine cortez masto. the democrats from the beginning have been running their strategy focused on these mail-in ballots, and also on these drop boxes. they've been working with the culinary union as he said. they have been instilling confidence, telling people this is how they should vote. and to that margin, he tells you that. the more that comes in, the more space.

they have a dose of confidence, not going to over crank, it we don't know yet in about the secretary of state race, the attorney general race, were all races coming into last night. >> some of the smaller states, when we talk about these election deniers, and we have covered it, a real rebuke in some states, for people that were big lie, big election deniers, especially at the gubernatorial level. it's also striking, and this is a problem for democracy, no matter how the campaign is. in smaller states with smaller bases, it's a lot harder to get a critical mass of voters knowing that it is the big lie. in a way, if you are really known for the big lie, at the top of the ticket, it might actually hurt you with some independents, moderates, but even a few republicans. if you're a bit more of a unknown, semi random section of state candidate in a small state, people might not know it. we talk about pundits over interpreting everything, we're trying to be careful.

it might be something like, the big lie hurts when you know the big lie. >> when people are just voting for your partisan affiliation and not knowing what you stand for. >> people are over reading things, but i think that's true, chris, i love your point. for a lot of these governments, how you handle the pandemic kicks in later when you handled these. >> speaking of over reading, i think the fact that cortez masto is a latina's countering what the other republicans talking point was. they tried to say, hispanics are all going republican. that's not in the exit polls, not even in texas. it's not in the exit polls, it's in the miami-dade exit polls. it's not national. there is a representation quality of her candidacy. she's the only latino in the senate, and there is a latino community rally for her that was not registered in the polls, or in the narrative the republicans were trying to put

out that they would turn on her. >> still to come, we'll check back in with steve at the big board. we're going to be looking at arizona in nevada as more data comes in, but will also be taking a look at the house of potential path for democrats to end up in control of the house. is that even possible? seriously? i still can't get my head around it? we'll be right back with steve, stay with us. i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. contestants ready? go! only pay for what you need. jingle: liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. my husband and i have never been more active. only pay for what you need. shingles doesn't care. i go to spin classes with my coworkers. good for you, shingles doesn't care. because no matter how healthy you feel,

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pundits are predicting a giant red wave, it did not happen. i know you are somewhat miffed by my obsession optimism, but i felt good with the whole process. i think we are going to define. any losses painful, but some good democrats didn't win last night. democrats had a strong night. >> president biden today, reacting to last night's surprise midterm results. at the same press conference, he told reporters that he's prepared to work with republicans if in fact they take control of congress. whether or not president biden will actually have to do that remains an open question at this hour. we still don't know who is going to be in control of congress. on that point, we turn to steve kornacki to talk about this issue of the house. let's take a look, the issue of house control, who would've thought that we'd be talking about this as an open question. the night after the election. here's where we are big picture,

the nbc news model, 218 seats needed for control. we have the republicans there in our model landing at 222 seats, which would be a narrow majority. but the key here of course is that is plus or minus seven seats. what that means is that the high range for democrats remains 220, and so there are still scenarios -- far more scenarios where republicans get control of the house, but there are certain areas where democrats and up with control. let's take you through what that would look like when the battle for the house is right now, and what battles to be close here. here's one way of breaking it down. let me call this open. we're going to first show you that these are the gains that republicans need, a net game of five seats. he's the democratic seat that they succeeded in flipping. what things that stands out on this list, four of them are from new york state, including

that and why 17 that you see right there. that is sean patrick maloney, the chair of the dccc, they hadn't incredible night. incredibly, its chairman who loses in his own district, with four democratic seats having flipped to the republicans in new york state. that's a consequence that kathy hochul won her -- the raid up huge by just a tenth of new york city, where these districts are. that's a single blow the democrats have taken so far, new york state. there are 16 democratic held districts that republicans have now flipped, and it is smaller than people were expecting going in. where we are right now, a number that's bigger than new york's the democrats have so far flipped six republican seats. he start with a 16 republican gain, and now you're seeing on the screen a republican district that democrats

succeeded in flipping. that is shaved down to ten with what we have. first, let's look at this way. what are republicans hoping to win with the democrats? where else could they -- look at california, there are five democratic held seats in california, republicans are hoping to flip them. josh harder for example, this is the thing with california. there are limited results they will see right now, and it's going to be in many cases weeks until we get clarity and some of these races. this is what republicans have, any of these would be again. what democrats need to do is defend every seat that i'm showing you. jeff harder in the night, with the 13th district newly created. julia browne with the win in the 26, maybe katie porter hanging on in 47th district. they need michael evan to hold on, and democrats need to win all of those california seats.

another major stories we're talking about in nevada, democrats, take a look here. three competitive districts in nevada, the safest democratic district. they gambled by changing the lines to make hers more competitive, thinking that she could still win. she leads, and they did shore up the third district for susie lee, who leads by a thin margin, but does lead. steven horsford in the fourth district, he leads as well by a slightly larger margin. democrats need to -- ideally they would defend every seat here. they have an opportunity in this california seat, they've an opportunity to sweep in nevada. jarred golden leads there as well. keep in mind, there is a runoff there potentially if nobody gets to 50%. democrats are pretty pleased right there with wager golden is sitting in maine right now. washington's eight district, trying to hang on there. there is the alaska seat, we

know this is going to rank choice voting. democrats would like to see a repeat of what happened there. i think that if there is the one year in particular danger for democrats, it is the sixth district of arizona, and also potentially the fifth district in oregon. democrats, if they can hold their losses here to one or two seats, we showed you that republicans had 16, maybe they get one or more together. and then this becomes the ball game for democrats. where else can democrats gain seats? again, what you notice, one, two, three, four, five california districts here with republican held californian districts. democrats are probably -- there going to have to defend all of their california seats. they need to flip the third district, they need to flip the 22nd district. they're going to need to flip the 27th district, then to flip the 41st, they're going to need

that flipped the 45th. again, these vote counts take a long time. we can see shifts in these things, they're really hard to characterize a lot of these california races right now. democrats would need to get those. they also need the second district of new mexico, they have a lead there. it helped him dearly if they had the third district of washington. -- a pro impeachment republican inquiring. washington, this league already came down today, a little shaky for democrats. here's one that would help democrats extremely. colorado's their district, lauren boebert, and it's hard to get more even than that. 73 vote difference right now between adam fresh, the democrat, and lauren boebert the republican. another almost symbolically there are a lot of democrats who would like to defeat lauren boebert. in terms of the math of the house, this becomes critical.

given everything i've shown you, they're probably not going to be able to play up everything here but they need to do everything on this list i'm showing you, they need to defend just about everything on this list that i'm showing you here, including all of these california seats. that's the kind of combination for democrats to land, at 218, georgia 19 seats. something like that, it would be the ultimate inside stream and politics that's. we would take. , and that of course there is the question of whether kevin mccarthy is actually rooting for lauren boebert to run. if he's got a one seat majority, which would he rather have? . much more to come in this election night. stay with us. ay with us r insurance so you only pay for what you need! (limu squawks) he's a natural. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ good news! a new clinical study showed that centrum silver

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in this family, it's the scientists versus the artists. [ melancholy music playing ] what kinda movie are you gonna make? $100 for a hobby? -it's not a hobby, dad. [ chatter ] don't dismiss what he does. it's playful or imaginative. family. art... [ grunting ] it'll tear you in two.

i don't want to disappoint you. [ screaming ] you do what your heart says you have to. i understand it's been really tough few years in this country for so many people. when i came into office we inherited a nation with a pandemic raging and an economy that was reeling, and we acted quickly and boldly. to vaccinate the country and to create stable and sustained growth in our economy. we are just getting started. the interesting thing is, this is all gonna really come into view for people in the month of january, february, and march of next year. it's just getting underway so i'm optimistic about how the public will be more embrace more what we've done. while we have made real progress as a nation, i know it's hard for folks to see that

progress in their everyday lives. it's hard to see the results from actions that we took we have to implement what we have done. but i believe we took the right steps for the country and the american people. >> joining us now is our friend stephanie ruhle who is the host of the 11th hour on msnbc, and and messy senior business alice. i mean we need to ask you since you brought it up yesterday. been talking about how the markets and wall street and financial world was reacting to the expectation that republicans would be taking control of the government. now that it looks like we're going have a protracted period of uncertainty as to which parties taking control of congress, what should we be watching for? what are you expecting along those lines? >> if we end up rachel with a divided government, sadly this is what the markets like. this is what corporate america likes, not essence airily what the american people do, but it means that government is so busy arguing over here that they're not gonna spend any

time looking at corporates and regulating of and putting more rules on them. if mama data fighting, the kids can easily go out and party. the reason this is important is that it's a reminder, this brand that the republicans really good for the economy, or the market is the economy. that's totally not the case, and the president isn't wrong when he said the important put in place also it's an important policies. in the next year, the inflation reduction act, even as he some of those things play out. so from the market perspective they'll say we'll see what happens. clearly if there would've been a red wave, why was carper market accident? because top trump tax cuts expire in december, they wanted to see those extended. will most likely not see that be the case, but for the american government wants a functioning government, that's not what the markets like. >> and the idea of what counts is a functioning government has changed so much in the terms of our lifetimes, as to what a

governing coalition is. the fact that it might not be able to do anything -- >> but it's exactly how it works, but it's also this reminder. when joe biden just laid out all those economic accomplishments, democrats can look at these midterms and say, we need to lean into this. this notion that, democrats are the party about social issues. while republicans they are the ones who care about the economy. that's not true. if we don't have a functioning society, we can't have a functioning economy, and the reverse is true. so this is a moment where demand democrats can lean in. it's not like the exit poll said inflation was the number one issue, i guess people didn't care about it, they only cared about abortion. both things can be cared about and voters who care about the economy don't automatically vote for republicans. remember republicans didn't offer any policies.

>> it's the democrats who are doing the inflation reduction act and the republicans are burning books. >> so one of the things stephanie that i've been most since fixated on the upcoming debt ceiling and that very clearly republicans in the making all these noises about what they're going to do is they are going to hold it hostage like they did back in 2011 to get the cuts they wanted. if he cuts social security and medicare. my read of the election results is the narrow or the republican house margin is, the less likely they can make that threat, because they will have frontline members who know what to do it. but what is your read about what the odds are for big, nasty debt deficit fight. one of the results? >> i think you're 100 percent spot on. what do we see? i've talked to centrist donors on both sides who are saying that what these elections should have shown, let's get to a more practical place. you are not going to see the far crazy super right play with

the debt ceiling cause that's not what corporate america likes, it's not what wall street likes, they're not gonna want them to play that game. but the thing you really think about chris, everybody's say they're voting because they're unhappy with the economy. what every one of those voters to look at that today, what are they gonna get different with inflation? nothing. it doesn't matter who we voted for yesterday. there's no lock maker, no president who controls the economy and controls inflation. it's a global issue, it's coming out of the pandemic, it's tied to the war. there is no one today who's gonna say we've got inflation covered, you're all set. voters should be aware of that. >> jen psaki, talking about what's gonna happen in washington, we heard ron klain saying the washington white house will do anything raphael warnock once. you heard him say that. we just have a few seconds here but in terms of what's happening in congress, are the things a democrats can do in washington that will set up raphael warnock better. >> in 2020 remember the

democrats push to get these checks that they could go down to georgia and say look, we are giving you checks, we're giving you money georgia. that's what democrats can do. if you get these two through the senate. right now, there are corporate tax cuts that run out. the government funding runs out middle of december. there's an opportunity for democrats to get through medicaid expansion through georgia which is a huge issue for warnock as an option to help him in this runoff. >> our coverage of election 2022 continues tonight with our dear friend lawrence o'donnell who's up next. stay with us. stay with us