we'll be looking at 49 republican seats, and a question is whether they have 49 seats, 50 seats, or 51 seats. that's going to make a huge difference in terms of what the agenda is for the president in washington, whether or not we spent two years talking about. arizona, nevada, all of the election systems now become profoundly interesting to us as we watch these things come in. it's just incredibly consequential how these two sort out. >> it's ironic that the thing that is probably the most immediate change there would be if somehow republicans were to eke it out and get control of the senate is the same thing that they got us here. roe got us here, it got democrats, here and there will

they'll never be able to get another judge through, that's the end of that. >> it is also worth noting that los angeles is r versus r. clair mcyou could ski, you know this, she can be sometimes counted on to be tethered to reality and sometimes work in a semibipartisan fashion and losing her from the republican party that's increasingly radical, i think is a loss for democracy. >> particularly if it is close to 15 seats. >> yeah. she is not one of the crazies. what you're really seeing in alaska is what's going to go on in the republican party in full blown fight fashion for the next two years.

that's going to be the republicans trying to claw their way out of the trump ditch and they're not going to be offending moderate voters with the extremism, lies, horrible meanness that part of the republican party has come to represent. as we've seen in the results. not really powerful to most americans. lisa is somebody who is anxious to get back to, okay, let's get democrats and republicans in a room and see what we can agree on. >> she's not a swing voter, she is a republican. >> she is a pro-choice republican. it is my recollection she voted against kavanaugh. >> she did. >> so she is somebody who is capable of standing up to immense pressure from people in the republican party to vote for

something she truly believes in. and those are in short supply in the republican party. since it's republican -- crazy republican versus lisa who is my friend, go lisa. >> she is one of three republican votes to vote against acu repeal. >> right. >> crucially so. they needed every last one of those. i also think in terms of what it means, joy's point is really important here. the biggest, most tangible -- in the same way when you look at the pennsylvania governor race, it is like well folks, you're going to get an abortion ban or not. the thing is judges. judges and appointments. you got to federal government, people start to leave. there is only so long they will serve in the government. the government has to be staffed. having control of the senate means can you do that smoothly. that means you burn less time. the biden administration had a remarkably successful record in the first two years along with chuck schumer confirming judges. it's been record setting.

there are, i think about three dozen vacancies right now which chuck schumer if you're watching, you probably want to get on that either way. seriously. by the end of the year. >> yeah. >> but that is a huge tangible immediate no question stake for this control. >> clair, let me ask you this time a little later in the night last night you said you thought it was not impossible that democrats could be heading into the georgia runoff on december 6 between warnock and walker. they could be heading into that with control of the senate already in hand. because you thought that they could win both arizona and nevada. do you still believe that? >> i do. >> i hate to even talk about this with steve car nabbingy -- steve kornacki being within earshot. >> he can't. we'll turn him back on later. >> he's one of the in other words i talked to today.

we have in other words in -- >> you know other in other words? >> there are nerds in the democratic party. they want a drop box number in maricopa to be higher. they want it closer to 100 as opposed to the 56,000 that it was but still feel good about it. what is the unknown here is same day drop box, what are they? are they republicans that don't trust the mail that don't want to wait in line? or are they democrats who, you know, completely trust the process and they just forgot to mail in the ballot and had to go drop it off? i said maricopa, i meant clark county. but they're still there. they think it is very close.

the senator from hawaii is busy helping locate people that will remotely help people cure their ballots in clark county. cure the ballot is when they discovered something where signatures don't match, they cannot count the ballot. but you get an opportunity to fix it. come in and show your id, re-sign the ballot. so what the democrats are doing right now is trying to mobilize a bunch of people to reach out to all 5,000 of those people, i think it's 5,000 in clark county, to help make sure that they know they can cure their ballot and know how to cure the ballot. >> wow. look how close it is right now in nevada. both in nevada and arizona. these races are -- i would tell you they're going to get called tonight and you should stay with us. we have no idea when they're going to get called. we're still watching as new votes come in. you know, it wasn't just historical trends that made

people think republicans would do better than they did last night. it was also, i hate this is important, it was also because republicans said they would do great last night. republicans explicitly set expectations high. and not just recently this time last year kevin mccarthy, the top republican in the house, got up in a formal press conference in the capitol and told reporters that republicans were expecting to take more than 60 seats in the house. if things go great for them from here on out, it will look more like 6 than 60. last month republican senator rick scott in charge of the republicans' campaign in the senate, he said republicans would get 52 seats in the senate. 52. he said he expected more than. that he expected 53, 54, 55 republican seats. at this hour, it's not even clear the republicans will get 50 although they might. 8:15 eastern last night after

the big round will poll closing -- are you okay, chris? of. >> i remember this face. after the first big round of poll closings, mr. junior posted this on twitter just the word bloodbath! . he hasn't heard from since. it was not a bloodbath. they were also defied in lots of different directions. one of the heartening surprises, we were just talking about this a moment ago, was that some election deniers, not all, but some election deniers, people that refused to accept the last election was real. people refused to commit to accepting the results if they lost, a bunch of them did concede. republican senate candidate oz,

for example, in pennsylvania. he conceded to democrat john fetterman. michigan republican candidate for governor dixon, she conceited to michigan democratic governor whitmer. he did not concede last night but he did concede to her this afternoon. even matt deparno in michigan, one of election deniers running, he conceded to democratic attorney general dana nestle in michigan to whom he lost. i should tell you in new hampshire and the very hard fought senate race there where republican don bolduck said trump won in 2020. he said it was mathematically impossible for trump to not have won. he was praised even after his defeat last night praised by donald trump as an election denier. even in new hampshire last night

conceded. went out of his way to tell supporters that he didn't concede to his opponent. he said he was only conceding to them. but still. he, in fact, acknowledged reality. >> we'll take it. >> maggie has won. i was told the protocol was to call her first. but i'm not one for protocol. >> what the maers is he acknowledged it when that was not a given. joining us now is democratic senator maggie hassen of new hampshire who won re-election last night. senator, congratulations and thank you for being here with us tonight. >> it feels weird part of it is a sigh of reheave that your opponent, who you defeated, is acknowledging that the election was real, that it had a result that, he came out on the losing side of it and that there isn't

going to be at least that kind of a fight over this kind of race. i have to imagine that wasn't a given for you heading into this. >> it wasn't a given. but here's the thing. the people of new hampshire in a really resounding way stood up for common sense for reproductive freedom and for democracy. at the end of the day, putting together a grassroots effort a year ago really resulted in granite staters understanding what the stakes were here. it really -- my opponent and the republican super pacs that supported him had really tried to mislead granite staters about who he was and granite staters saw through that. and they really rejected somebody who was way too extreme and out of step with where our state is. >> one thing that we were able

to talk about in the middle of the fight is the comparable resonance of different issues that so many democrats and observers around the country were debating in terms of what people want to hear about? did they only want to hear messaging on the economy and reproductive rights, did they only want to talk about threats to democracy. i wonder now that you've gone through this and seen what was in effect a resoundingly victorious strategy from you, if you have any more clarity on that in terms of what worked and what democrats -- excuse me, what voters in new hampshire took as a motivating force to get them not to just vote for you but to vote at all. >> look, what i heard repeatedly from granite staters was that they have a lot of things on their mind, just the way all of us do. they're really worried about inflation. but, you know, i will also tell that you canvassers came back from doing the door to door shifts and i still remember one canvasser telling me that a

grandfather said he was voting for his granddaughter as he pulled his 8-year-old granddaughter over next to him. the thing about people in new hampshire and across the country is they're dealing with all of the things all at once. they expect the elected officials, their public servants to address all of these things all at once. i really made pint of going to where voters were. whether it was a factory floor or small business, whether it was a shift change or just a coffee shop. really listening to them and then talking about the ways that i worked in the senate to deliver on priorities and make a difference for them. you know, whether it is banning surprise medical billing or working with a republican to do

it or negotiating the science act or helping our veterans. >> practical politics. i have to ask you, this is rude of me to ask. you cannot answer if you don't want. to i know that president biden called a number of democrats who won their races last night. we think you were on that call list. if that's true, can you confirm that for us and tell us anything about that conversation? >> oh, sure. the president was gracious enough to call and it was nice to hear his voice. it was nice to touch base and talk about the things that are important to people all across the country. i did, you know, use the opportunity to talk with him about the work we still need to do. particularly on heating costs as winter approaches. it was a good conversation.

>> maggie hassen, as always, practical, nuts and bolts and getting work done. senator, always a real pleasure to talk with you. thank you. again, congratulations on your big reelection victory last night. >> thank you so much. be safe, everybody. >> of course. next, we're going turn our eyes to nevada. that big outstanding senate race there. the governor's race there, a lot to talk about in nevada. the dean of nevada political reporters and very blunt spoken man, he'll join us from nevada next e stay with us. man, he'll join us from nevada next e stay with us.

i love that vegas shot. it's been nearly 24 hours since the polls closed and the state of nevada is still -- yeah, we don't know. nevada senate too early to call. nevada governor too early to call. nevada secretary of state where the republican p republican

vying to run nevada's elections is an election denier. the nevada attorney general race, also still not called at this point. in nevada, as long as your ballot was postmarked on or before election day, it has until saturday to arrive and still get counted. tonight the state's biggest county was home to las vegas just announced under 60,000 mail ballots retrieved from drop boxed on election day. that is not stuff in the mail. it was dropped in there by election day. the question is with what is outstanding in nevada, is it going to be enough? is that vote of whatever character that is going to be enough to push democrats over the edge which is what they're hoping when do we expect we'll have final results? we've been talking with steve kornacki about this all evening. joining us from nevada is the man himself, ceo of the nevada independent and long time nevada quarterback. john, it's great to see you. thank you for being with us

tonight. >> good to see you, rachael. >> tell me about the character of the outstanding vote. obviously we can see what the vote totals are between the candidates and all of these statewide races. there is a ton of them not to even mention the house races. >> the democrats have done well on the mail balloting so far. the first batch was 14,000 ballots. and the u.s. senator who is behind by 23,000 before that picked up 5,000 out of 14,000. so she's now down as can you see on the screen there by only 18,000 votes statewide. that's a 65% to 30% win in the first batch.

if she picks up that pace, she'll be in the lead in the race. there is more than that. there are 61,000 mail ballots that we don't know in terms of what their character is up in reno. that say closer county in the partisan breakdown. it's very even. and so we're not sure the democrats can pick up as much there. and one other detail to throw-in, there are a few thousand ballots, we're not quite sure how many left in rural nevada. and those will heavily be relaxed. although probably gain a few thousand votes there. so it's very uncertain still. but that first batch of clark county has come out and it is very heartening for democrats. >> can you give us a sense of the get out the vote effort?

harry reid is no longer there. he played such a pivotal role in organizing and get out the vote effort in the state of nevada. the cull inair qui worker's union is the democratic machine there. how effective do you think the efforts were? it is meaningful that average, you know, culinary worker is a 44-year-old latina in a moment we're talking about pocketbook issues? we're talking about economic issues? do you think that helped the democrats' message going into the election? >> that's a great question, alex. it's a very relevant question. much as rachael mentioned, there are 60,000 ballots that were taken from those drop boxes. guess what union ran a drop box campaign with its members to try to help katherine cortez and the democratic ticket? that's right. the culinary union. it's interesting that you mention the profile of the latino worker for the culinary.

they're not just an integral cog, they're the hispanic turnout machine in nevada. and to turn out when that 44 the first latina ever elected to the u.s. senate has been a motivating factor. a huge proportion of the 60,000 ballots that just came in yesterday into those drop boxes were culinary driven and therefore really help the democratic ticket up and down. i feel like you as an election observer in nevada can sort of feel the current here better than anybody else. do you think they have a shot at the senate race? do you feel the republican leads

here are inpenetratable here or that the democrats hopes are reasonable? >> i think the hopes? the senate race are very reasonable although by no means assured. as i mentioned, they keep up the current pace in clark county. she is going to cut deeply into that statewide lead and perhaps even take the lead. it may not be practical to think the 65% all those ballots. if she gets 60% of the ballots, she is going to win that race. there is more mail coming in as long as you mentioned. it is most marked on tuesday to come in through saturday. that is probably going to favor the democrats as well. having said that, the governor's race still seems like a bridge too far because of the margin there. and so it would really have to be a huge, huge mail dump and huge margins in there for steve

sisolak to overtake. can you see there, rachael, that margin is twice what she was behind by. but i think that this is going to poll the rest of the democratic statewide ticket or many of them over the top including -- including very importantly the man running against one of the worst election deniers in the nation. >> john, ceo of the nevada independent independenceable as always, thank you very much for your time tonight. >> you know, it's interesting. we talked about introducing john talking about him being blunt spoken. he is saying that katherine cortez masto has a real shot. sounds like he does not think that steve sisolak has nearly as good a shot. we have to look at that secretary of state race. there are outstanding count race there's, too. i don't know when we're going to

get all that ballot. i don't know how the counts are going. nevada and arizona are really going to be down to the wire. >> nevada has this almost wisconsin like quality in the last few elections. it's interesting to look at cortez and sisolak. you have two incumbents. they're only running 18,000 votes part. we should be clear about that. i remember having grofrn sisolak on my show. it is shutting down las vegas. >> yeah. >> like truly one of the -- and he had to do it. you could tell he was tortured. you could tell people were ticked off about it. and he tried to navigate what was incredibly difficult situation. i think arguably the most difficult in the nation.

that is very, very crucial. that explains some of that difference. >> but there was a bunch of pieces of good news for democrats and what john said. it is always a relief when he is saying is aligned with what i'm hearing. but the democrats i've talked to people watching this very, very closely say that, one, the more ballots that come in the better it is for katherine cortez. the democrats from the beginning have been running their strategy focused on the mail in ballots. and also on these drop boxes. they've been working, of course, with the culinary union as he said. they've been instilling confidence in people, telling people this is how you should vote. the 2-1 margin tells that you. the more that comes in, mort space. stle some -- a dose of confidence. i'm not going to overcrank it. we don't know in the secretary of state race, attorney general race and the house races. so they were very much in the air. >> and some of the smaller

states, we talk about the election deniers, we covered it, a real rebuke to big election deniers in the gubernatorial level. this is a problem for democracy no matter how informed the campaign you run, in smaller states it's hard to get a critical mass of voters knowing it's big lie. in a way we saw if you were really known for big lie or on the top of the ticket, it may hurt with you some independents, moderates, maybe even a few republicans. if you're a bit more of an unknown semisecretary of state candidate in a small state, people may not know it. we talk about pun bits overinterpreting everything. we try to be really careful with the calls. sometimes it may be big lie hurts when they know your big lie. secret big lie, small medium market, less so. >> when people are just voting for your partisan affiliation. >> yeah. >> and speaking of overread things. i think that is true. i loved your point, chris,

about -- i hadn't thought about. i think for the governors, how you handle the pandemic kicks in later when it comes to elections. the. >> they remember it. >> absolutely. >> i think the fact she is a latina, it counter whats the other republican talking point was. where they tried to say, oh, hispanic are all going republican now. it's no the in the exit polls. it's in the miami-dade polls. but it's not national. there is a representation quality to her candidacy. she is the only latina in the united states senate and there is a point of community rally for her that i think was not registered in the polls and in the narrative and they were going to turn on her. >> still to come, we'll check in with steve at the big board. we'll be looking at arizona and nevada and taking a look at the house, a potential path for democrats to end up in control of the house s that even possible? seriously? i still can't get my head around

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while the press is predicting a giant red wave, i didn't happen. and i know you were somewhat miffed by my optimism. but i felt good during the whole process. i felt we were going to do fine. any seat you lose is painful. some good democrats didn't win

last night. democrats had a strong night. >> president biden today reacting to last night's surprise midterm results. that same press conference, he also told reporters he is prepared to work with republicans if in fact they take control of congress. >> let's take a look. who thought we would be talking about this is an open question now. the night after the election. but here's where things stand. big picture. this is the nbc news model for the house. 218 seats needed for control. we have the republicans right now in our model. landing at 222 seats which would be a narrow majority. but the key here, of course, is that is plus or minus seven seats. so what that means is the high range for democrats remains 220.

so there are still scenarios, there is far more scenarios where republicans are in control of the house. democrats could end up in control. let me show you what that would look like. one thing that stands out on this list, four of them are from new york state including that ny 17 you see right there. that is shawn patrick maloney, the chair of the dccc. the dccc had a historically incredible night. ironically, the chairman loses in his own district.

huge margins outside where the districts are. so that is the biggest single blow democrats have taken so far has been in new york state. the bottom line, there are 16 democratic held districts that were republicans have now flipped. that is smaller than people were expecting going in. where we would be right now, a number that is bigger than many were expecting is the democrats so far flipped six republican seats. what are republicans targeting and hoping to win that are democratic held right now? where else could republicans get gains? again, i think a couple things jump out on this list. first of all, look how many are

in california. this is the thing with california. it is limited results that we'll see right now. its going to be in many cases weeks until we get clarity in some of the races. what democrats need to do is defend every seat i'm showing you. the 13th district which is purely created. they need julia brown in the 26. they neat katie porter to hang on. they need mike levin. the democrats have to win all the california seats. another race in nevada, democrats, take a look here. three competitive districts in nevada. she leads and if they did that, that would shore up the third

district for suzy lee. she does lead. thinking it would shore up stephen in the fourth district who does lead as well by a slightly larger margin. so democrats need to, in an ideal world, they would defend every seat here. i'm showing you they have an opportunity in those california seats. they have an opportunity to sweep in nevada. maine too is on this list. they're comfortable with where he is sitting in maine. there is the alaska seat. we know this story is going to rank choice voting. democrats would like to see a repeat of what happened there this summer when they won that. think if there is one here in particular danger for democrats, it's the sixth district of arizona. also potentially here the fifth district in oregon.

this becomes kind of the ball game for democrats. where else can democrats gain seats? and again, what you notice, one, two, three, four, five california districts here with republican held california districts. democrats are probably going to need to defend all of them. they want to get the house. they have to defend all of their california seats and start flipping. they need to flip the third district. they're going to need flip the 22nd district. they're going to need to flip the 27th district. they're going to need to flip the 41st. they need to flip the 45th. they take long time. we can see late shifts. it's really hard to characterize a lot of the california races right now. democrats would need to get those. what else would they need?

this is joe kent that ousted a republican in the primary. this lead came down today. so that one may be a little shaky for democrats. and here's one that would help democrats extremely. colorado's third district. a 73 vote right now. i know that almost sort of symbolically there are a lot of democrats that would like to defeat lauren. but in terms of the math of that the house, this becomes critical given everything i showed you before. democrats need to light up. they're not going to be able to light up everything here but they need to light up everything on this list here. they need to defend just about everything on this list that i'm showing you here including all of those california seats. en that is the kind of combination where democrats could land at 218, 219 seats,

something like that. it would be the ultimate inside straight in politics. but that's what it would say. >> then a question whether kevin mccarthy is rooting for lauren to win. like if he has a one seat majority and one of the seats is lauren, which would he rather have? all right. we have much more to come they election night. stay with us. e much more to comy election night stay with us ♪♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪♪ away things. fit together with away things. ♪ ♪ that's our thing. ♪ ♪

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i understand it's been a really tough few years in this country for so many people. i came to office we inherited a nation with a pandemic raging and economy that was reeling. we acting quickly. we're just getting started. the interesting thing this is all going o come in clear view for people in the months of january, february, march of next

year. while we made real progress as a nation, it's hard for folks to see that project -- that progress in their every day lives. it's hard to see the results from action that's we took while we have to implement what we've done. stephanie, you were talking about how the financial world was reacting to the expectation that republicans are taking control of the government. now that it looks like we're going to have a protracted period of uncertainty as to which party is taking control of congress, what should we be watching for?

this is what corporate america likes. government is so busy arguing over here that they're not going to spend any time looking at corporates and regulating them and putting more rules on them f mom and dad are fighting, the kids can easily go out and party. the reason this is important is because it's a reminder, this brand that republicans are really good for the economy. or the market is the economy that is totally not the case. the president is not wrong when he said they put in place all the sorts of policies and you talk the infrastructure spending, inflation reduction act. you're going to start to see some of the things play out. so from the market perspective, they're like well, we're going to see what happens. clearly, if there would have been a red wave why was corporate america excited? it's because trump tax cuts expire in december. and they want to see those extended. most likely not going to stee that be the case.

>> right. and the idea of a functiontion golf has changed. the idea of split government being able to do anything is something that as you say allows you to equate corporate irresponsibility with underage drinking which i think was very subtle the way you did that. >> yeah. >> but it is exactly -- but it's exactly how it works. but it is also this reminder, when joe biden laid out all the economic accomplishments, democrats can look at these midterms and say we need to lean into this. this notion that like oh, democrats, they're the party that are all about social issues. but republicans, they're the ones who could care about the economy. that's not true. if we don't have a functioning society, we xrnt a functioning economy. this is both true. the exit polls said inflation was number one issue. i guess people didn't care about it. they only cared about abortion. both things can be cared about and voters who care about the

economy don't automatically vote for republicans. remember, republicans didn't offer any policies. >> right. >> when it's the democrats doing the inflation reduction act and the republicans are like burning books, you end up on a different list. >> one thing that i've been most fixated on is the upcoming debt ceiling and fact that very clearly republicans have made all the noises. my read of the election results is the narrower the margin is, the less credibly they can make that threat. they have front line members that don't want to do it. about it what is your read about what the odds are for big nasty debt ceiling fight are given the results? >> think you're 100% spot on. i talk to donors on both sides

who are saying what these elections should have shown is let's get to a more practical place. you are not going see the far crazy super play. that's not what corporate america likes. that's no the what wall street likes. the they don't want to play that game. the thing to think about, chris, everybody is like inflation, i'm voting because i'm unhammy with the economy. i want every voter to look today and say what are they going to get different with inflation? nothing. it matter who you voted for yesterday. there is no lawmaker. there is no president that controls the economy and controls inflation. it's a global issue. it is coming out of the ban temperaturic. it it is tied to the war. there is no one that is going to say we have inflation covered. you're all set. voters should be aware of that. >> jen psaki, talking about what is going to happen in washington, we heard them say earlier this hour that the white house will do anything that warnock wants. >> whatever. >> to help him in that. >> you want a car? a unicorn? >> but in terms of what is happening in congress are there things that the democrats can do

in washington that will set up warnock better for that runoff? >> it seems like a decade ago n 2020, remember, the democrats pushed to get the check that's they could go down to georgia and say, look, we're giving you checks. we're giving you money, georgia. that's what democrats can do. there is an opportunity for democrats to get through medicaid expansion for georgia which is a huge issue for warnock as an option to help him in this runoff. >> or coverage of election 2022 continues tonight. "way too early" is up next. toni. "way too early" is up next ♪♪ whenever heartburn strikes get fast relief with tums.

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>> joe biden, congratulations. >> how you are, mr. president?

>>'m