we are back. we are glad to have you back here for our special election coverage right here on msnbc.

top of the hour, 1:00 eastern time i'm hallie jackson. in washington d.c. alongside andrea mitchell and katy tur is in new york. as we are keeping a focus on the races that will decide the house majority. we haven't called it yet, projected it yet but the projection has house republicans moving closer to endsing the democrat's four year run in the majority and bringing a new era of divided government running up to the 2024 presidential election. you see the house there leaning republican right but with a plus or minus seven seat marin of error with republicans at 221, democrats at 214. we'll see what happens. when races are called we'll bring that to you live. >> which means it could go either way. also renewed debate over who should be the nominee for both parties in 2024 because that is right around the corner as of now. with president biden pushing back on the midterm exit polls

showing a majority of americans don't want him to run for re-election. when you look at democrats that number is different. and former president trump continuing to criticize potential gop presidential primary. his presidential primary opponent, ron desantis. >> and we're also keeping a close eye on those two senate races out west that could decide which party controls the upper chamber even before the runoff in georgia. starting in nevada where adam laxalt is holding the slim lead over democratic incumbent, catherine cortez masto but she is picking up the larger share of votes last night and could hold her seat if that trend continues. and in arizona mark kelly also gaining votes over night to enlarge his lead over republican challenger blake masters with more than 200,000 maricopa county votes still to be counted in coming days. back with us now mark murray

and david jolly of florida. so let's drill down on the battle over the senate how this is playing out, arizona and nevada, where these candidates are so close. where do you see the advantages for democrats and republicans in arizona and in nevada as the votes are trickling in? >> let's start with nevada. right now adam laxalt, the republican ends up having about a 15,000 vote lead. but as we saw last night there was a batch of about 14,000 ballots that got released and catherine cortez masto ended up winning those by a two to one margin. if that holds that could be good news for her and for the democrats. we just have to actually see, though, the composition of the ballots in those remaining drop boxes to see if democrats are still winning 2 to 1 or more 1 to 1 or even in the republicans' direction that would help out adam laxalt. in arizona you have mark kelly

the democratic incumbent with about a 100,000 vote lead now. he has margin between himself and republican blake masters. it's closer in the gubernatorial race so kelly is in a stronger position now. and we have to see the back and forth, back and forth in ballot dumps in the state of arizona over the next couple of days. we've seen this in past cycles where democrats end up being in a strong ground with a strong voting method and then republicans bounce back. so we'll see a lot of different movement in those two states. but you're right. i'm watching these two states. if democrats win them both, the georgia runoff will not matter. democrats end up controlling the majority in the u.s. senate. so let's get to arizona, get to nevada before we get to the december 6th georgia runoff. >> and raphael warnock is going to be speaking in this hour,

talking to voters, talking to us. we'll go there live once that happens. that's the senate. let's talk about the house because there are still some outstanding house races. nbc news' projection leaned democrat but still with republicans leading slightly. when will we know who will control the house, what what we waiting on? >> we're waiting on 30 races. when the day began we had 33 uncalled house races. and the republicans had their projection according to our model they were going to be at 222 seats plus or minus 7 so you can take the 222, go up seven seats or down seven seats. but after we called joanna hays in candidate trump that republican number went from 222 to 221. so we'll see it go back and forth.

we are watching 30 races across the country right now. republicans need to win seven or eight of them to get to that 218 number. so the math is still in their favor right now. but if democrats are able to run the table and the races i'm watching for them for potential calls are also in nevada, there are as many as three house races that we are watching right now. the nevada three district where susie lee is the democratic incumbent that was one of the democrats must win to hold the majority. we've seen a couple of democratic losses on our list of eight they had to run the table with. but democrats won more than they lost. which is why the house we're still talking about it today instead of having a house call on election night which many people were expecting. >> let's talk about what we expect here in the next couple hours. senator raphael warnock set to address georgians in atlanta.

we'll also bring you live an update on the ballot count in nevada next hour. we're joined by gaud va any gas. and john ralston ceo of the nevada independent. hi. bring us up to speed on the latest. >> reporter: a lot of attention is focused on washoe county and clark county. we're expected to get an update at 11:30 local time. and yesterday they offered the first piece of information on the mail-in ballots that came in. so it's very slow. you're talking about the mail-in ballots yesterday they informed that they had 14,000 that came in from monday's mail. an additional 12,000 from tuesday's mail. those are all being tabulated. what we've seen after the mail-in ballots began going into

the system was the lead diminished from republicans, right. adam laxalt the day after election day he was up by 23,000 now up by 16,000. in the governor's race you see lombardo is up by 44,000. so the mail-in ballots are favoring the democrats. we also learned yesterday that the drop boxes here in clark county had about 57,000, 56,900 votes in those ballots in the drop boxes. those have to be tabulated and go into the system. so as we move forward and get more information on a daily basis here in clark county, we expect more of these mail-in ballots to go into the system and if the trend continues it will favor the democrats. >> and john, you said that catherine cortez masto could overtake laxalt's lead, what does she need to do to make that happen? how important is it that she's been the only hispanic woman

senator, and could there be an outpouring of latino support for her? >> well, i think there was, andrea, especially through the culinary union, which is the biggest get out the vote force for the democratic party and ran a campaign to drop mail off at those drop boxes that you just heard about and about half of the culinary union, a little bit more, is hispanic and they take a lot of pride in having helped in 2016 elect the first latina senator. where are we in the count right now? there are about 110,000 ballots left in reno and las vegas. we know that. there's also mail that's going to continue to come in until saturday. they can count it if it was postmarked either tuesday or before. catherine cortez masto, those ballots that were released yesterday in clark county and washoe county where reno is, won over 60% of the ballots, which

is why she's been able to slash 7,000 votes off of adam laxalt's statewide lead. if that pattern continues she is going to easily surpass him and win the race. but she doesn't have to keep up that kind of pace to do it, andrea. if she gets about 55% or so of those remaining ballots, she will still win. now one minor caveat here, there are thousands of ballots left, maybe four or five thousand ballots left in rural nevada that will favor laxalt. >> what about the governor there, john? is he in as strong of a position potentially as senator catherine cortez masto? >> that's the right question, katy. listen the bottom line is that he has trailed behind catherine cortez masto the entire time in polls and now in reality in the votes. he is trailing by about twice

the margin that she is to joe lombardo, about 34,000 votes he is going to have to have everything break right. that is continue to win 60, 65% of the outstanding ballots, hope that additional ballots coming in the mail in the next few days favor him. it is a very uphill struggle for steve sisolak but unlike where i was yesterday maybe 24 hours ago where i thought he didn't have much of a chance. i think he has an outside chance right now. >> john ralston, great to see you. guad appreciate your reporting. thank you. any minute we expect to see raphael warnock speaking in atlanta. we'll bring you that live when it happens. you can see the crowd that has gathered -- here comes senator warnock. day one and a half, two of the georgia runoff campaign that is beginning. really the kickoff here.

the first ad has come out in the runoff race. i want to bring in -- i'm going to ask the control room if ellison barber or blayne alexander is live for us in georgia. >> my name is rye -- >> senator warnock is going to speak to a couple of georgians first and then he will speak. we are going to see later on herschel walker at an event with republican senator ted cruz as you are now starting to see the republican party also focus its energy as the democratic party is, on this state trying to get it over the finish line. obviously what happens in arizona and nevada per our last conversation, is going to have an impact what the stakes are nationally but it matters to georgians. >> katy, let me ask you to jump in here because we're talking about people coming in as surrogates. but president biden is not likely to be asked to come in by

warnock. we don't know that yet but ron klain was asked about it and he was hanging back. >> i read an interview that kate bettingfield did with another outlet and she said they're going to wait and see if they're helpful. ask the campaign if the campaign wants him to come down. we were talking about this yesterday and the consensus that the surrogate that the warnock campaign is going to want to see is former president barack obama. we'll wait and see if that happens. >> i'm sure he wouldn't be sad to see oprah come down too. >> no, no one would say no to oprah. one of the questions is who is going to turn up to vote in this runoff. will the enthusiasm be the same as november 8th. you can't register now, if you haven't registered already you can't go out and vote. so it's the same pool of voters. those ones that were voting independent, do they switch

their votes, vote for somebody? do they not vote at all? can republicans get people to go out. can brian kemp who's going to be campaigning for walker, can brian kemp convince those split ticket voters to maybe think again and vote for walker. if we know one of the races in nevada or in arizona goes for the democrats and it's up to who controls the senate, it's up to georgia, how does that affect the decision making? there's a lot going on. >> and it's also the huge amounts of money already in georgia they spent 144 million plus, which is second only to pennsylvania, which was marginally larger. are they going to spend another $100 million in georgia if it is the final act? let's bring in tremayne lee from atlanta and ryan buck. tremayne i guess first to you,

what's going on down there? >> reporter: i've been talking to democrats the last few days, strategists, organizers and young people organized on college campuses trying to harness the youth vote and they're enthusiastic about the prospect of the runoff. they say there's no better opportunity to highlight what's at stake than this race, especially if control of the senate comes down to the race, which it seems it could be there. they're saying without governor brian kemp on the ticket, he got 200,000 more votes than herschel walker and herschel walker got double digits less in some really important republican districts. so without a brian kemp leading the ticket, the democrats i've talked to said they're hopeful and enthusiastic because they know when it's game time they believe the base is going to show up. >> brian, katy raised an

important question. the brian kemp factor. how much is that going to make a difference, how involved might brian kemp get with herschel walker and his campaign? is it going to be a head nod to that? >> he ran so far ahead of walker. >> talk through what you're seeing on the ground there. >> brian kemp is a huge factor here, didn't do much of anything to help herschel walker in the general. he knew that herschel walker could potentially drag him down, he wasn't going to do that so he kept him at arms length. obviously he's come out and said he supports him. the most support could have been when they were on the ballot together and brian kemp not being out there is going to hurt herschel walker. not a lot of enthusiasm for herschel walker, he trailed all throughout election night. so how do you get people excited for herschel walker? do you bring in donald trump? you have senators across the country coming in because if everything is on the line for

them. i have to think the enthusiasm is with democrats. a crazy thing to say, they just lost the house potentially but they feel like they have wind at their sails. so enthusiasm matters a lot in a special election they're always quirky but i have to feel like democrats have an edge going in now. >> mark, you've been drilling down on the data on special elections in the past to know how that enthusiasm makes a difference. stacey abrams has had a very successful get out the vote effort. she's transformed that state in just the past few years. what's your sense of the enthusiasm factor for georgia going into december 6th? >> i'm a believer let's see how nevada and arizona play out first. you can see the scenario where democrats stay super fired up if they're able to win in arizona and nevada. but do we have a different situation on the hands when, you

know -- if, somehow, democrats hey, we won the senate and let's all stay at home. who knows. >> senator warnock is speaking now. let us listen. >> are you ready to do this one more time? [ cheers ] >> let's get it done. now, you have to admit that i did warn y'all that we might be spending thanksgiving together. and here we are. so i'm going to need you to stick with me for four more weeks. can we do that? [ cheering ] >> because we have got some unfinished business. i stand here as a proud son of savannah georgia. and as a proud american. and i wouldn't be here without

veline and jonathan warnock, my mom and my dad, both pastors themselves. and lifetime georgians. and they poured into me the values of faith and love and hard work. and those values of faith and love and hard work guide me to this very day. and that's what's guided me through a life of service. it's what's guided me as a pastor and a united states senator. and i know it's going to take a combination of faith, love, and hard work to push us through the next four weeks. so here's what -- >> and as senator warnock tries to begin his campaign for the runoff against herschel walker, i want to bring in kate bettingfield, white house communications director. thank you for being with us.

we got the green memo today. it was the economy and inflation expected to carry the day. and that did not create a red wave. the president was clearly upbeat. and you outdid all historic expectations. abortion was more important, democracy was more important, all these things at his news conference. but let's talk about one big elephant in the room if you will. that is that two-thirds of the exit polls don't want him to seek re-election and he seems ready to do it after that family vacation where he and dr. jill biden will poll the family. how does he think about that? >> i think across the country on tuesday you saw people turn out to vote for the biden agenda. the president has put forward an agenda that's about lowering costs, tackling the climate crisis, forgiving student debt, bringing manufacturing back to

the country and around the country on tuesday people had a choice and they chose the biden agenda. in terms of 2024, you heard him speak to that himself yesterday. he has said many times it's his intention. but right now we are focused on what we can do for the american people. he's looking for ways to continue to make progress on this agenda he put forward that led to a historically successful midterms for a president. >> as we were coming to you, kate, we were showing senator warnock in georgia. we know the campaigning is beginning in ernest today, not just that for him but also herschel walker later tonight. should we expect to see president biden traveling to georgia? >> president biden will do whatever senator warnock finds helpful. whatever senator warnock needs president biden is going to do. we'll see what the campaign would like but the president stands ready to do anything that senator warnock would find helpful. >> still waiting --

>> i -- >> sorry. >> go for it. >> just a follow-up. has the campaign reached out? >> no specific conversations. no specific detailed conversations that i can give you all at this point except to say what the president did across the country for democrats throughout this election. he traveled, he was in districts of candidates who won their election on tuesday, running on the biden agenda. he showed up in states all over the country to campaign for senate candidates, house candidates and we saw a historically successful night on tuesday. at his direction, the dnc directed millions of dollars into these races to help combat some of the special interest money flowing into republican races. so he has a successful track record from tuesday, able to help candidates across the country and we'll do whatever senator warnock would find helpful. >> we don't know who's going to control either house of congress. we know the president had a call with kevin mccarthy, i know

you've been asked about this a number of times, also with mitch mcconnell. i'm wondering if you can give us any specifics about what the agenda is going to be and what the president sees he'll be able to get done with potentially a divided congress: >> you're right. we don't know the outcome. there's still a path for democrats to hold the house. we'll see what the final tally looks like. but obviously the president is going to work with congressional leadership as he has since he took office. when he comes back from the trip he's leaving for today, going to the g20 and cop, he'll meet with congressional leadership when he gets back and they'll talk about priorities moving forward. if you look at his record, what he's been able to do in the first two years we've had significant successes, including significant successes with republican votes. should we need to work with republicans moving forward, the

president has been able to do that and will continue doing that moving forward. the country wants to see their government working together. president biden has a great track record with that and he's looking forward to working with the next congress. >> any specifics that he wants to work through? >> no specifics right now. but if you look at what he said his priorities would be, a clear commitment to protecting social security and medicare, protecting a woman's right to choose, continuing to make progress on lowering costs, continuing to bring down the cost of health care, prescription drugs. things he's been able to accomplish in his first two years but he's looking forward to working with congressional leadership and moving forward on the agenda that the country embraced on tuesday. >> the president is about to go overseas and he's going to be meeting with president xi as you know.

president for life. and there's a lot of talk that taiwan might be sooner on his agenda, takeover of taiwan or some other conflict. what is the president looking for in that and according to state media, vladimir putin isn't going so no chance to get the temperature on ukraine and more immediately figure out where the heck is brittney griner? we've not been notified as to what penal colony. she's been moved is all her lawyers were told. >> obviously the president has said we're doing everything in our power to bring her home. there are private conversations for understandable reasons can't be made public but he has directed his team to do everything that they can to bring her and other wrongly detained americans home. to your question about the trip more broadly, you're right. he will meet with president xi obviously he has a relationship

with president xi, has spoken with him numerous office since president biden became president. this will be a first in-person meeting, a continuation of their discussion of what we can do to make sure our relationship stays in a place of competition, not conflict. they'll talk about issues of regional concern and the president said yesterday he will lay down places where our interests conflict with chinas and work through that. so this is an extension of as you know well andrea from covering him for a long time. this is an extension of his belief that leader to leader communication is important so it will be a productive conversation. >> just quickly, does the u.s. government know where brittney griner is? >> those are not details i'm able to provide publically. >> i'm not asking where she is. do we know -- >> even so you know a lot of these conversations have to happen privately but the president has spoken with

brittney griner's wife. he is focused on this and has directed his team to do everything they can to bring her home. >> andrea is racing key issues about the president's overseas trip which is going to dominate a lot of discussion when he leaves for that given what is on the table. but there may be news made at home while the president is traveling overseas. that is the potential that as president biden is with allies on international soil, he may find out that his former opponent in 2020 is going to announce a run again. what is the white house's strategy when you are asked about that overseas? what is the white house thinking on that front? >> well, look, i don't think president biden has ever hesitated when he's been asked what he thinks about donald trump, both his previous tenure as president and the fact he may run again. i don't think president biden has ever held back on the risk, the threat donald trump poses to our democracy. we know there's been speculation, the date has moved.

we'll let that playout. the president overseas is going to be focused on the trip, on the g20, he's going to be focused on working with our allies to corral russia's aggression. he's going to be talking about the strength of the u.s. economy on the world stage. so he'll focus on the strip and we'll let donald trump do what donald trump is going to do. >> thank you for being with us. the white house i'm sure has had an exciting couple of days and more to come. back with our panel and the all-star players. mark murray, first to you. let's talk about the matchup in georgia. the money that's going to be poured in and ad buys do they have to make decisions about ad buys before they know next week about arizona, nevada, before they know how critical georgia is going to be? >> andrea, we end up subscribing to a service where we see the ad buys are starting to be placed.

i can tell you that they are already -- it is starting to happen. it's just a month's time. i think that folks, the game is changed on the runoffs in georgia. remember after 2020 when neither raphael warnock or john ossoff cleared 50%. went from november, all of december and a runoff on january 5th. this time around, after georgia ended up changing its election laws you have nowadays just a one month spread. so it's december 6th. the question is, you know, raphael warnock was -- senator warnock was talking about, he's done this before, he'll do it again. but now the game has been changed where it's a month sprint. so we're going to see the ads faster. we're seeing the candidates engage. and it really is on. >> didn't we see an ad where he's walking in what is it a sweet potato casserole for thanksgiving dinner?

i think i saw that already. >> the ads that were super nice from raphael warnock and then also just this drag them out, slug them out kind of ads. you look at the totality of the last two or three weeks of the race it was nasty where each candidate was going after each person's character. >> how much longer are those ads going to be effective. senator klobuchar has talked about this. people are tired of the slug fest ads every day. especially going into a holiday like thanksgiving where people are supposed to be thankful. >> it's thanksgiving, the s.e.c. championship game. but turnout is everything. you have turn out high historically for midterms but not a presidential level. so with the composition of the electorate, who's going to the

polls, who has the energy, who is tired of everything, i want to be far away from the state of georgia as long as possible not to have to watch these ads. to me that's the unknown variable here. it's really trying to say in politics it comes down to politics but it's a runoff. >> david jump in. >> everyone knows everything about the two candidates and this will likely become a proxy fight between the two parties who controls the senate. but also their main characters. if democrats can make the race about donald trump, raphael warnock has a chance to win this in a walkaway. because donald trump has performed bad in georgia statewide races. some would say donald trump lost the two runoffs for the republican candidates two years ago. >> lots of people would say that. >> that's right. you saw in brian kemp, brad raffensperger and other you saw statewide candidates win by distancing themselves from donald trump. democrats know that, if they can make it a referendum on donald

trump, it's good for raphael warnock. >> thank you all. we appreciate you being here with us as we continue our special coverage here on msnbc. we want to touch on news outside of politics, but part of it, what's going on with the economy? do you see this, good news in the dow. the dow up nearly 1,000 points off news that inflation went down a little bit this past month. what it means for your money, your monthly budget coming up in just a second. t coming up in just a second. i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida.

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maybe [door bell] here you go, sir. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together before the break about the markets having a good day. check out the dow up nearly 1000 -- almost 900 points now on the heels of numbers. cpi up 7.7. those are high numbers but look at the trajectory in october ticking down a bit. maybe that means the fact that the fed is hiking interest rates is working. that's their strategy to try to get a handle on inflation. brian cheung knows that. our nbc news and business data reporter. wall street likes the news

should everyone else? >> it was up over 1,000 points earlier. but rehash the numbers, 7.7% that's the figure we got for how much prices changed between october of this year and october of last year. a bit slower than the 8.2% pace we had seen in the month of september. again, look at this chart. mission not accomplished. it ticked down a little bit and shows perhaps we saw it peak at about 9.1 earlier in the summer but economists say we want to be closer to here, 2%. we have a long way to go. how does this trance translate to what americans are feeling. shelter, it covers rent, went up by .8% in october. that's faster than we had seen in september. this is something we want to watch closely knowing that just the cost of putting a roof over your head is the biggest expenditure for most americans. food went down, pacing at .6% on

a month over month basis. we did see egg prices jump. and gasoline prices a bit of a reversal from the summer when prices were going down. the average price going up from $3.80 to $3.92 nationally. but broadly speaking the federal reserve did the .75% interest rate increase. so they're taking steps to step down about half a percentage point but wall street is going well on this news. new information, new data from the nbc news decision desk on voter turnout. 112.5 million. that's 47%. slightly down from the turnout in the last midterm in 2018. so it's a good turnout, not a great turnout. but that does indicate 47% of the people were voting of eligible voters. >> people were paying attention.

the decision desk is telling us half of people voted on election day, half voted before election day. the other thing we've seen too is young voters. and the turn out on that is important. i was talking with one expert for a couple pieces we did about generation z, people turning 18 to 25 for voting eligible. could it be a gen z wave and how much did that drive out democrats? >> they broke for democrats in large numbers, especially diverse voters did. >> it is interesting to see that it's down -- go ahead, andrea. >> independents. something we haven't focused on as much as maybe we should. this was a big break for democrats picking up independents. >> and it also shows that the extremism of some of the republican candidates, candidate quality that mitch mcconnell described, mattered for those independents and it very much became a vote for a lot of folks on democracy and whether they wanted to see our democracy

continue to be strengthened or be torn down. these are lower numbers than 2018 and i believe it shows us there's a certain amount of enthusiasm for good and bad that donald trump brings out when he is in office. those 2018 numbers were huge because there were a lot of folks that wanted to pump the brakes on him and hand over the congress to democrats in order to give him -- to give him some boundaries, if they could. we'll see what happens in 2024 if donald trump is back on the ballot. but there is certainly a trump bump for good or for bad. >> exactly. and the count is not yet over in arizona. latest on the state's senate race, which could tip control in washington. do not go anywhere. you're watching our continuing coverage, again, of the not-yet-over 2022 midterms right here on msnbc. ar 20®.

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welcome back. turning back to the races that we are still following in arizona. the highly watched race for governor is still hanging in the balance with 76% of the vote in. but so is the race for senator as control of the senate could go either way. nbc's vaughn hillyard is in arizona. mr. arizona, let's go through first of all former president trump. here he comes, here he goes again. out today on truth social casting down on the arizona, nevada elections saying they want more time to cheat. that is exactly what feeds misinformation, disinformation, all the threats, all the craziness of the audit in arizona. what does it mean? what's the reaction out there if any? >> reporter: reasonable humans that want to convey to the american public how the election system works would not speak those words let's be frank,

there's a process. we expected it to take a while and for anyone who had conversations with the county officials you understand why the ballots are taking awhile. because it takes a while to verify the signatures on mail-in ballots to ensure this is a fair election and then there's an adjudication process in case there's any crinkles, a republican and democrat look at it together and go and authenticate the ballot. we knew this was going to happen here. there's a reality that there's about 275,000 ballots here in maricopa county that we expect to favor kari lake and the republicans. those initial ballots we'll get a few of them we're told tonight but then more rolling out in the days ahead here. that hasn't stopped the likes of kari lake calling out the quote crooks and cheaters, doesn't name anyone specific other than

casting down on election officials. but then you have mark finch, the republican secretary of state candidate who has spent the morning tweeting out conspiracy theories, saying only election deniers are denying releasing the results. we'll look into the anomaanomal. mark finch is someone who just selected we should look through the election office to find katie hobbs suggesting they're changing the outcome. all this to say this process is moving along. we'll get our next drops around 8:00, 9:00 p.m. tonight, guys. >> let me ask everybody, how does that get through on twitter? isn't there supposed to be a process where totally false claims like that get filtered out? >> the question is how that changes with elon musk -- >> i'm saying he's participating in it. >> a truth on his own social media site --

>> no, i'm talking about what finch was tweeting out, what he was referring to. >> you have to wonder if the musk factor is part of that, andrea. >> sorry, vaughn. you set me off. >> reporter: the issue here, too, is understanding and trying to explain to the public, which each of these candidates would have the ability to do. kari lake could go out today and say this dropped tonight, we should expect to go further into the deficit on the ballot count that's the likely reality. the ballots we are going to see drop tonight are likely to lean democratic. kari lake's deficit is going to climb tonight she could go out and acknowledge that and tell the public, hey, wait until friday when more ballots drop we expect those to favor us because those were hand delivered mail ballots taken to polling locations. in 2020, those ballots favored donald trump, that is why initially on election night he was down by a lot.

ended up losing by just 10,500 votes we expect a similar situation to play out here but we have to double down and say we don't know the results of any of these ballots until they're tabulated by the election workers behind us. i can stand here, the county officials can stand, the campaigns can predict what's going to happen here. until we get the release of these results, we don't know. yes, do i think kari lake is going to make it a close race, even potentially take over katie hobbs, yes. but we don't know that until they release the results of what the voters of a arizona did today. and kari lake knows that and donald trump knows that, it's willful pushing back against reality otherwise. >> donald trump started claiming fraud in 2016 when he thought he was losing on election night only to quickly stop talking about that when it became apparent he was winning. thank you so much.

and nancy pelosi is leading a congressional delegation in egypt for the united nations framework convention on climate change. she's expected to hold a news conference tomorrow on climate but the results of the midterms are sure to be front of mind as well. joining me now is jake sherman and back with us is brendan buck who has worked for both republican house speakers and paul ryan. jake, i want to start with you and nancy pelosi. what's the expectation for what she might do? i know you broke the news today that they're going to have their leadership votes on november 30th, right? >> november 30th, that's right. she's in egypt as you note. i don't think she's going to be whipping votes for any position from egypt. i will say this, she has the entire town guessing. she's given no indication whether she plans to continue as speaker or as a rank and file

member and she's frozen the field. she's frozen it since 2020 when she first got into leadership. we're talking to members who say we're not making calls, plans until pelosi tells us what she's doing. i've been wrong since 2010 about nancy pelosi i thought she was going to leave, she never leaves and her statements indicate nothing. they aren't giving any clues. i have to imagine sometime around thanksgiving or before she has to give some signal as to what she's going to be up to next. >> let me turn to you brendan on the republican side. obviously we've been talking about house speaker one congressman talking about a freedom caucus member and their perspective, and this is just coming in for us, from kyle stewart one of our producers on capitol hill. let me play it for you and then i want to hear from you. >> i have personally stated that kevin mccarthy has not done

anything to earn my vote. i've been evaluating him and everyone else who has tried to lead us the last two years, i will reserve comment on specific individuals but i think there's a number of member was the republican conference who share the ceremony concerns and i'll expect there to be a challenge. >> a number of members who share concerns. what is the number? >> i assume the number is going to be more than is necessary to get whatever they want out of him. look, as long as the question right now is what do these guys want, instead of who do they want, i think kevin mccarthy is still alive and still the favorite to be speaker but every one of these folks, freedom caucus and others, out on the further right of the conference, all see this as a leverage opportunity. and so bob good is saying what can i get? they're basically saying my vote is for sale. and kevin mccarthy will have to spend the next two months figuring out what he can afford to give them. and i hate this, because all of this, what this does, is weaken

the speaker, it is important to have a strong speaker, it is important to have a speaker that can provide direction to a conference, but these guys don't care about that, and i imagine this is going to be a conversation we'll be having for months because their demands will probably keep piling on each other and piling on each other, and we will see if he has enough stuff to give away to secure, it bought they know he will do pretty much do anything to get that gavel. >> let's say he gets the speakership by making these deals, it could be a single digit majority. is that going to be a stalemate? because they're not going to be able to pass anything, as people think that they have leverage to get out of a compromise, and he's going to need some democratic support. >> well, there wasn't a whole lot to be taking place legislative to begin. with and i don't know the impact is on legislation. anything that needed to get done was going to happen with democrat votes anyway. there was not going to be a 218 republican vote for the debt limit or a 218 republican vote

to fund the government. they will still pass the messaging bills. any time he does something they don't like, like cutting a deal with democrats to fund the government, there is incredible pressure from members to say maybe it is time to move on and this is what we dealt with under speaker boehner and speaker ryan and if they can change the rules to get rid of the speaker at any time, that is really problematic, for having any type of structure in the house. currently the rules are not just any member can bring tup. only a member of leadership. but these guys, one of the things that they're asking for is go back to the rules where they used to be, where any one single member of the house can trigger a vote to kick the speaker out. if that's hanging over the speaker at any time, any deal he cuts could be fatal. so this could be really, really important to keep an eye on. >> jake, you wrote about exactly that this morning in punchbowl. >> here's the issue here, and brenden is right, we have been on different sides of this coin for a long time, my covering and brenden advising ryan and

boehner about this, the problem with the conservatives is their demands always shift. it is never a consistent set of demands and it is always, it is just whatever they feel that day, and that's very difficult for a congressional leader who is trying to get things done. i mean mccarthy raised half a billion, he has a slimmer majority than he thought he would, if republicans win the house, and he is still going to be leveraged for all of these sorts of things, yet and many of them, he can't give up. many of them he doesn't want to give up. and many of them hobbled in as a speak shall, hobbled him as a speaker. so he is in a difficult 50 or so days for the speaker vote on january 3rd and i don't know what his path is to keep the shift steady, i think he thinks he can do it but we'll have to wait to see. >> i wonder, there is real talk by the way, there is some element, until we know for sure, control of the house, where these races land, which is going to be days, same thing with the senate and leadership races, to some degree and talking around the same thing, what is the thing in the last couple of days that you have not brought up

that you both think is an important story lines to be touching on? in other words, what is the rarer thing that you two, who are complete experts by the way, total insiders on capitol hill in different ways, what's the thing that a broader audience should be processing right now that you are right now. brenden, let me start with you. >> sure, to me, i'm looking around at who are the likely next people. like i said before, it is one thing if they're just asking for things, they're asking for changes, but i'm wondering what people like jim jordan are doing, people like elise stefanik are doing, are they -- >> behind the scenes? >> behind the scenes. it is one thing if bob good comes up with some random freedom caucus members and this is the person we're running, and that is what happened with john boehner with a random member from florida and this is who we're challenging. if there is an actual credible person, does the conversation change? that is one thing. and the other is donald trump. if donald trump makes a comment on kevin mccarthy's future that could change the ball game

entirely. if he sticks with him, that is a huge boost for kevin. and on the flip side, if he says something how kevin let him down in the election or tries to shift blame away from himself on to somebody else, that could be big, big trouble. >> jake sherman, weigh in on here on the future of kevin mccarthy and nancy pelosi and what comes next. >> i would say this, on the thing that's not getting enough attention, for the first time since the 2000s, the house is going to be basically everybody is a king maker, this is what we saw with democrats last time, the moderates have as much sway as the conservatives in the 225-seat majority, so even if the conservatives say let's put up jim jordan for speaker, there are moderates who are not going to vote for jim jordan for speaker, so they're stuck. this will be a very good lesson for the conservatives in the house republican conference who need to understand that they are not the only thing that matters in the congress, that there are moderates, people from biden districts, from blue states, who also matter. >> i've never seen the moderates

stick up for themselves though, so i'll be very interested to see if that comes to be true. >> true. >> jake sherman, brendan buck. thank you so much. and in the next hour, we'll be hearing from election officials in nevada's largest county where thousands of votes are still being counted. i have another assignment so i will leave everything in very capable hands of katy tur and hallie jackson. stay with us for continuing coverage of 2022 midterms, right here, on msnbc. i'll be back with you again tomorrow. tomorrow [laughing and giggling] (woman) hey dad. miss us? (vo) reflect on the past, celebrate the future. this season with audi. when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis persists...

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