waiting for results out of nevada, and out of arizona. one of the things i'm watching for arizona's got thrown today, which is motivating a lot of young people to come out and vote. it's a position that will allow instate position for -- >> all right, we are here until something happens. [laughter] >> the bottom line is, something is gonna happen. some things are in the works. we're expecting votes out of maricopa county in arizona, which help me determine the gubernatorial race and the attorney general raise their. we are awaiting certain results that are still coming in on house votes, the house with has become, look at that on your screen, it has become very, very close. the projection, plus or minus four seats, of democrats of 260, republicans of 219. 218 is the number you need to control the house. and of course, united states senate. a new hour of election coverage begins right now. ection coverag begins ♪ ♪ ♪

>> welcome back to our continuing coverage of the midterm elections. i am ali velshi and we won't you, election day has now become election week. it's been four days since the final ballots were cast. control of congress still hangs on the ballot. right now, it is just an estimate, but nbc projects republicans will win 219 seats in the house, while democrats could likely take 216 seats. but remember, that's only an estimate. with one big caveat, there's a margin of error of just four seats, which means they remains a potential, albeit narrow path to victory for democrats to retain control of the house. democrats would have them to win 14 of the outstanding 20 seats. republicans on the other hand, could pick up seven of the outstanding seats. in the senate, democrats against one step closer to holding that chamber. nbc news projects the incumbent

democrat mark kelly will beat republican blake masters, securing his full, his first full term. here is mark kelly delivering a victory speech earlier today. >> after a long election, it can be tempting to remain focused on the things the divide us. but we've seen the consequences that come when leaders refuse to accept the truth, and focus more on conspiracies of the past then solving the challenges that we face today. while we face serious challenges, we also know that when we come together, and focus on solutions, we can make progress. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> all right, here's the thing. and that's why we are all sitting here right now. kelly's win brings the senate to a tie, 49 republicans to 49 democrats. as of last night, republicans had to win a total of three outstanding seats in order to

control congress. one of them is georgia, right? georgia's races heading to a runoff. that's not gonna happen until december 6th, which means, tonight, right now, 8 pm eastern, all eyes are on nevada. the battleground state is a hotly contested senate race between incumbent catherine cortez masto and republican adam laxalt. let's go to steve kornacki right now. i see he's got something going on. what's happening, steve? >> yeah, we just got a major update. it's not in our board yet, but i'm gonna take you through. we've been talking about maricopa county and those 80,000 plus votes. we've gotten them. 85,000 votes just came in in the governor's race here. and let me give you the numbers. they will pop up on the screen. these numbers you are seeing here, this is the maricopa county, these are the maricopa county numbers. they're gonna change, probably, as i am typing these out. but this new batch of votes, kari lake, their republican gets 44,796 new votes, and katie hobbs, the democrat, gets

40,270 new votes. so, lake is going to gain about 4500 votes, 4526. she is going to knock that off of hobbs's late. that's her late in maricopa county. it's a significant, though, because this is supposed to be the very republican friendly batch of votes. we are talking about ballots that were delivered by voters, mail ballots that voters took to polling places and dropped off on election day. in 2020, this was an extreme lead. we are talking about 60%, republican friendly batch of votes. it is a batch of votes that lakes supporters, republicans in arizona, have been pointing to us the type of what they believe is gonna vaulter past katie hobbs. simply put, winning, she's winning this batch, but she is not winning it by the kind of margin that she expected. that republicans expected. and so, i think this batch of votes, while there are more

votes for lake in it and then for hops, it actually reflects good news for hobbs, because hubs is leading statewide here. and if she can afford to lose their remaining vote in maricopa county, as long as she is losing it by a small margin -- there it is. there is the updates. the update is now going in maricopa county. hobbs's lead in maricopa county shrinks to about 57 204 73 -- what does this do to the statewide count? you see, hobbs lead shrinks to 40 -- 34,742. there could be a lot more damage done here by kari lake, she was running the kinds of numbers trump was with the same set ballots, back in 2020. this was the way republicans have been looking at these ballots. they expected kamala to be gaining tens of thousands of votes with each new update. instead she knocks a small amount of katie hobbs's late. this batch of votes, again, when we saw this last night, when we got a first look at

this type of vote last night, it suggested the possibility that maybe katie hobbs would be able to withstand kari lake as the final votes were counted. what we just saw from maricopa county reinforces that possibility that katie hobbs, democrat, that small lead, much smaller, her lead in this governor's race and mark kelly is enjoying in the senate race, may very well be able to withstand what kari lake gets out of the remainder of maricopa county. that's the significance of that update. kari lake got more votes than katie hobbs out of it. but she did not get a lot more votes than katie hobbs out of it. republicans have been vetting betting that kari lake would with these updates. now, two straight nights, we've had updates from maricopa county. about 85,000 votes here, about 75,000 last night. we've got about 160,000 votes. the vast majority of those votes are what we've been talking about, the ones that were dropped off by voters in person on election day. and you get to see lake open up

a huge advantage among them. she had a small advantage among this batch, and last night, hobbs got more votes than her. so this is very encouraging news for hobbs and for democrats and the governor's race in arizona, and i'm just gonna hit this to make sure i did not miss anything while i was explaining that. because the other thing will waiting on that -- no, clark county, nevada, as the other thing we're waiting on. the major development right now, uncalled governors weighs in arizona, where katie hobbs has been trying to hold off kari lake, we just got a major chunk of votes from the biggest population center in the state, maricopa county. kari lake wins that batch of votes, narrowly. and potentially, not as much, certainly not as much as she was hoping for, potentially, not as enough to put her on course to overtake katie hobbs as her campaign has been hoping and believing she would. >> i was gonna say, do you have any sense now of a, what's remaining to come in arizona? and be, are there any indications as to when we're

going to get that? because this was announced. the idea that we're going to get this 80 plus thousand vote, right about now, we knew it was going to happen. is there anything else we know of? >> right, so this pool of votes that i'm describing is gigantic. and there are still 195,000 votes to come from maricopa county. so, the way they've been doing them is nightly. we've been getting one per night, right around this -- well, actually, it's been about 10:00 eastern time. but they'll give us a time, and they've been pretty good about having the votes come out at that time. so, i would expect for maricopa, we're not gonna get our next batch until around this time tomorrow. and again, they are knocking off 75, 88 times. it may be two more updates away from finishing. but again, the significance, look at the size of that vote. the lake campaign believed republicans believed that when you start counting these votes in maricopa county, lake was gonna be winning 58, 59, 60% or

more of that. and it was gonna be easy for her to than overtake katie hobbs. what we just saw there was lake get 51% of them. and she was only able to shave a couple of thousand votes off of hobbs's you lead. now, she's gonna get a couple of more shots at it. there are a lot more of these votes to come. there are geographical variances, potentially, in terms of where they're coming from. it is possible that around this time, around this time monday, we end up looking at a batch that's much more favorable to lake. but so far, we've had two updates now, two significant updates, tonight and last night, for maricopa county, let has involved this type of ballot. and this type of ballot in 2020 was break for donald trump, 58, 59, 60% every time we got an update with it. and so far, we've had two updates, and carrie lake has not come near that donald trump number. democrats have been saying that

they believe the character, the sort of partisan character of this ballot in maricopa county, this time, would not look like 2020, that it would look like 2018. and the 2018 midterm, it was on the strength of these ballots. the mail ballots dropped off on election day in person. it was on the strength of those ballots that kyrsten sinema won the senate race, the democrat in arizona back in 2018. democrats have been saying that that was going to more resemble 2018 and then 2020. so far, with two updates now, as we get news tonight from maricopa county, the democrats version is painting out more than republicans version. still an opportunity there for kari lake but she's not getting so far the kinds of numbers from this late batch, big late batch in maricopa county that her campaign has not just gonna get. >> does this mean we have to work tomorrow night? >> the way you said this -- the way we're talking about

democracy resembling a dinner reservation -- >> so, adrian fontes, the secretary-elect, as we call him in arizona, the guy who was the maricopa county records. he was the guy who sort of oversaw the vote counting reminds us, this will end. the votes will be counted. there is no actual problem. they just take time. everybody chill. we'll get our results in arizona. but the shorthanded what steve would saying is that these votes did not break for kari lake the way some people were expecting them to, or at least the campaign was expecting to. while she gets more votes out of maricopa county in this match than katie hobbs did, it's not at the rate that she would have, which would bode well for katie hobbs. >> it's certainly not as good as it was for trump in 2020, and i think steve has been pointing out, if you compare the numbers in terms of what the republicans have pack to get out, not just in this race, but in races across the country, they're not getting to the numbers that they needed to to either flip certain seats, or to win seats like this one.

>> in fact, in a particular race, steve, can we go back to washington third district for a second? ? this was an upset for democrats that we have just called moments ago. it changes the numbers for control of the house. and now, puts democrats get closer to possible, not statistically likely at the moment, but possible control of retaining control of the house. washington's third district is a very interesting story that was supposed to be a republican when. >> yeah, and i'll show you here, this is the 2020 presidential result, and in this district, donald trump carried it by five points. it was represented by republican jamie herrera beutler. she voted to impeach donald trump. we have a top two primary system in washington. all the candidates or in the same ballot. the top to advance to the general election. so, joe kent, a pro trump republican, finished ahead of jamie herrera beutler in that primary. he advanced to the general

election, with marie perez, democrat. and again, this is one what we're looking at, giving the partisan tilt of the district. trump won it by 35 points. the expectation that the midterm environment was gonna favor republicans or democrats, the expectation certainly going in was that this was a seat that republicans were going to defend, even with kent replacing jamie herrera beutler as the nominee. it's a republican district, especially in this political climate. so, this is an upset victory for democrats. and as we say, for democrats to actually hit that number of 218, our nbc model as you mentioned has been estimating them landing at 2:16 right now. to get those extra two seats, they would actually get a new majority to 218. this is precisely the kind of district they need to win. this is precisely the kind of upset they need to pull. it's not the only one they need a couple of others. i can give you a couple of examples. i mean, the 41st district of california, for instance, take a look here. again, trump narrowly wins this

district. the lines were redrawn a little bit in the redistricting process of california. can calvert, the long serving republican, a little bit less than half of the vote is in. this would be a significant upset for democrats if rollins, your candidate, was able to finish ahead of calvert. but it may be essential offset for democrats if they're actually gonna land at 218 seats. the 22nd district is actually this one, is a one that has frustrated democrats for a long time. it's heavily provided in the presidential election, but in that same election, in 2020, david validate, the republican, actually ousted the democrat, won his seat back. he'd been defeated in 2018, won it back in 2020. this is the kind of district where democrats need to get the victory, need to pull the upset. again, the difference between 215, 216, jointed 18, 2019 it's gonna be made in districts like between the 22nd of california, the 21st of california, it's gonna be made in the district like the throat of washington for democrats to just get what

they need. so, they took a pretty big slit in that direction but they needed to take some more big steps. and this is becoming a dramatic story that i think will play out, you know, over the course. this is one that will play out over the course of days potentially over the course of weeks it takes time. in california, it takes time to count the votes. and maybe it's worth mentioning this one now that you are in the situation where it is so tight in terms of house control, with our nbc estimates landing things at 200 1919, 216. is there a universe where the democrats, let's say, a week from now, ten days from now, who are sitting at 217 seats, and the republicans are sitting at daunted and 17 seats. and what remains on called is the choice runoff election in georgia scheduled for november 23rd in alaska. is it possible we can find ourselves in a situation where control of the house of representatives is decided by a ranked choice one-off.

again, you know how this works. voters go to polls on election day. they say, it is my first choice, there is my second choice, here's my third choice. and we see this play out over the summer? we are seeing candidates, peltola, palin. she actually finished first in the race. -- and peltola won the seat in the special election. if it could go to a right choice voice again, which you get the same outcome? peltola versus palin? it could end up determining control of the house, not out of the realm of possibility right now. >> wow, man. you just wrecked my next six weeks or whatever that is. >> no more steve kornacki tonight. you're gonna be here until december? we're gonna talking of? >> i love steve kornacki. we're not looking for eight weeks of this. all right, steve, this is, we are watching by the very, very closely. this could determine the outcome of the united states senate.

but this arizona stuff is really important. i want to go back to somebody, one of our colleagues who knows arizona really better than anyone. this guy is there for a long time. i believe he even missed dinner with his family tonight because we are talking about these votes coming in maricopa county. so, vaughn hillyard, i'm gonna make it worth you for you. i hope your family is watching. >> elton john concert is two blocks away from where i am, all right? >> we have wrecked your evening. you might as well tell us. >> there are other things happening in phoenix tonight, surprisingly. again, let's go back to the last hour. the number that i threw out at he was 53%. we came up with that number here based off of conversations with folks who are watching this closely on both sides here, who have interest in both states. katie hobbs and kari lake. and when you're looking at that 51.8% that kari lake brought in here, of course, that is below that 53% level there. and so, she is still in the ball game here. but essentially, you are coming in at the bottom of the, night down more to, three runs, then down by one. so, when you're looking at this here, i gotta go back to

conversations. yesterday i was having conversations -- and steep alluded to this here. there was pushback by republicans that last night ballot drop did not go in kari lake's favor was because the initial, those first batch of ballots that made it here to this county facility to get counted where from the democratic areas right around here. first in, first ones to be counted here. and so what this suggests, to an extent, that was true. so then, that becomes the next question, what happens tomorrow? because what they are saying is, particularly in some of these conservative voting centers, where there were longer lines the other night after the tabulation machine errors, the republicans, kari lake, believes that those numbers coming in tomorrow will be even a bigger number than what we got here today. how are, you also have to put into the context here, they thought they were running away with this on election night. and then, they thought that yesterday, they were gonna run away with this. they were hoping for great numbers again today. every single time, they are missing their mark here.

and so, when we are looking at the totality, it takes me back to 2018, again, which steve referenced. i was told that night, it was actually martha mcsally ahead on election night in 2018 over kyrsten sinema. and the pollster, the team around mcsally told me, von, those are our numbers. the folks coming in turning in their mail ballots, there are republican voters in here. and i said, i hear the reasoning why. but ultimately, we need to see what happens when those envelopes are open. and what happened, kyrsten sinema was ultimately able to prevail because of those ballots. that is four years before now. we're looking at the exact same script here. and now, the question is, can katie hobbs hold on to this here? because when you're looking at the number of election deniers, i know you guys had this conversation, you have the likes of, you know,, in michigan, wisconsin, lee zeldin, you have election deniers, all going down to one person who's representing the state that joe biden won. so, has a shot to win the governorship, that is kari lake here. so, when we're talking about this week ending here, you're

talking about kari lake potentially being the latest individual here to fall and not get a shot at the governorship. but as we're looking at these numbers, of course, we need to wait and see what comes in the days ahead. >> but as we talk on where they're a couple of weeks ago, there are republicans, adrian fontes, mark kelly, i know that alicia was talking to mark kelly, there are republicans who are supporting these democratic candidates, because they feel in a state that has a long history of republicanism and conservatism, they feel that the election denialism got away from them. they feel that's not their republican party, which is almost a reclaiming of the republican party by supporting democrats and some of their cases. ty by supporting democrats >> there is -- the paradise valley area, it's more affluent, more traditionally -- it's the neighborhood where doocy lives. the former chairwoman of this legislative district essentially, the chief activist of the local, local republican group, she is actually, essentially been ostracized from the greater arizona republican party.

she's been censured. she was told to step aside three days after the republican primary. casually cat initially suggested that you want to unify the republican party, but your campaign operation tweeted at this woman who has been involved in politics for a long time, and said, we don't need republicans like you. this was on the same day that kari lake said they put a dagger through the mccain machine here. this was, they were explicit. they truly believed that they would be able to galvanize a part of this state that we're able to, essentially, run without getting those conservatives. and those very people that you sat down with that great focus groups, those are the very folks here who, if kari lake loses, will change the outcome. that legislative gop chairwoman who just referenced, is those individuals if we're talking about hundreds or even thousands of votes here, those are the individual that would ultimately caused kari lake the governorship of arizona. >> vaughn, bless you. i hope you got another 15 minutes past charge on your battery.

i suspect we're coming back to you. vaughn hillyard, such a great analyst and reporter on all things, but specifically, when it comes to arizona and it's politics. thanks, my friend. >> and a gem of a human being. i want to bring in symone sanders, host of msnbc's simone. we are watching things right now, or watching governors ways out of arizona, we're watching the senate race out of nevada. also house races are being called in realtime. you saw what's happening out of washington. if you are democratic leadership, if you are republican leadership and you are watching these results roll in, what is top of mind? >> first of all, top of mind is the math. and i actually spoke to the what, congressman james clyburn, before this election season. and he's being very bullish. before tuesday, he said we're gonna do better than you think. and democrats can hold house. and i thought that was a, i mean, look, as a statement, he should make. he's the third in the wig, right? that's what you say. i don't think many people believe that. so, democrats seem to think

that they have, you know, ran better races the cycle, and it is, the math is borne out. the math is mapping -- i want to say one thing about the senate, because as we talk about this, and we could learn nevada, nevada could make a difference. katherine cortez masto could be perceived, or she could be defeated. if she keeps her seat, i think it is the fetterman camp for white house and democrats. and i've heard a lot of people talk about georgia and say, georgia does not necessarily matter as much. i think the math is very, very important. you have to remember, this white house, this president is dealing with two members that are not necessarily reliably democratic votes, right? i'm talking about kyrsten sinema and joe manchin. so, every extra seat that democrats can get, it makes a difference, especially when we are looking at passing legislation. for most things, you need 60 votes. so, if you get 52 democratic senators, that means you only need eight republican senators. and that can make a difference. >> sorry, go ahead, jonathan. >> symone, since you brought up

whip clyburn, i will keep talking about this. what are the conversations being had among democrats, because whether they are in the majority or not, there is going to be a conversation to be had about who their leaders are going to be. we still don't know if speaker pelosi, what is going to do, once we find out what the results are. we don't know what leader hoyer is going to do. we don't know what whip clyburn is going to do. what do you think they're going to do? >> the game has changed. look, now, jonathan. the game has changed. so, prior to -- i would say prior to a month ago, it was widely believed that speaker pelosi was going to retire, step down from congress. and then, there was a new leadership that was gonna come in. hakeem jeffries was widely seen as a -- i'm talking to him tomorrow on the show. so hopefully, he doesn't pull out. i'll just put it out there. i hope we get it on the record, y'all. he was widely believed to be the next in line. and there were talks about

waiting something special, if you will, for the whip jim clyburn, and bringing in some of this new leadership. people should know that the dccc was strapped for cash the season, and he should not have been. lots of people donated, okay? but they ran out of money sooner than they thought. and it was speaker pelosi and others who went around the country raising money. i would also note the president there, raising money, the vice president, the first lady and second gentleman. if, in fact, democrats keep the house, part of it will be due to the money that speaker pelosi herself went out there and got for the membership. no one at this point is challenging her gravitas at their. they've been able to keep the caucus together and raise the funds like she has. and if she would like to stay, people would be happy to have. >> what i thought was really interesting when reverend al was here, and he was saying, if you saw raphael warnock tonight, with very interesting herschel walker, what happens in nevada affects your race.

if catherine cortez masto pulls through in nevada, then every republican in the country is not gonna throw money and resources at getting herschel walker elected, because it's not about control of the senate anymore, because herschel walker leaves a bad taste in some people's mouth. but if catherine cortez masto it's defeated, and it all goes to georgia, then herschel walker gets every republican dollar, and every republican resource in this country. so, some cortez masto if she wins tonight, warnock has a better chance in georgia. does that logic make sense to you? >> i think it does. but, i mean, there are so people in georgia that would like to see reverend warnock defeated, right? and i think that a close senate is better than a chasm, if you will, for my republican friends out there. so, i do think that maybe the donors, the national donors dry up a little bit. but the republicans in georgia, republicans in the senate, they are still very much so invested in getting every seat that they can. i think if catherine cortez masto winston, it's the democrats that are so so much

energized for a number of reasons. one, we want to get reverend warnock back in there. to, again, every vote matters. the white house is very expanding their numbers and the senate. but, then you also have, i think there are just black voters who saw what the republican party did by propping up a number of these, you know, candidates across the country, who were people of color, but did not necessarily show the interest of the people that they look like. i think the only similarities, frankly, between overt or knock or herschel walker or the fact that they're blackmon. and i think there's a lot of people in georgia that want to go to the polls to send a message. reverend warnock is there a person, and you cannot just book a person of color in a sea, and think that black people will go and vote for them. >> symone, can i ask you about the next two months. based on what we've seen out of these midterm elections, let's say, even if republicans to win as protected, 2019 seats, it is clear, and something you've talked about quite openly over the last, certainly, since this book to you last week, that

reproductive rights were a motivating factor that gen z vote were a motivating factor. we often think of these next two months as alien bucks session for congress and the president. but what does this democratic party that still has control of both of the chambers of congress and the white house do in this two months, given the results? are they bolden to try to do something for women and gen z before this congress's term expires? >> look, i think they should be, by? and let's not discount what the president has done on student debt relief. it is currently being challenged in the courts. congress has yet to act, so they would like to, it could. but, frankly, i don't think they have the votes. you know, the house, this current house, they didn't pass legislation to codify a woman's right to make decisions about her own body, abortion, codify roe. and the senate did not take it up because they did not believe that they had to votes, the votes to do so. again, i go back to senators, two senators, kyrsten sinema of arizona and joe manchin of west

virginia. so, i actually think the next battles, if you will, in congress will come down to stuff like the debt ceiling, right? but we've raised the debt ceiling. mitch mcconnell has noted that that's not something he's willing to help democrats do. and that is a stake in the ground. look, that is something that we have to take care of our bills as a country. so, i think that's what we'll be, should look out going forward. and they really triangulating for the next congress, because it's so close, if we end up in this scenario that steve kornacki told us about, i'm very scared about that. you're gonna see a lot of triangulating, right? because there is no really clear majority. so, you know, there could be some moderate republicans that would like to go to the democrats. there might be some democrats in the house, and more moderate democrats, that end up voting with the republicans. so it becomes very, very tight. >> go ahead -- >> i'm sorry, ali, real quick. what you're talking about, you know, triangulating. remember, ali, i don't know what our it was, maybe 6:00,

when david jolly was on. and david jolly said that his advice to democrats, symone, was to declare victory, because democrats have a message from the voters that we don't like what the republicans have done,, we are interesting democrats, whether they take control of the senate or maintain control of the house, or don't maintain control of the house, they are within a couple of seats. what do you make of what david jolly says? former republican, former republican congressman, saying democrats, just declare victory and push ahead. >> -- we want to see every vote counted. does that make sense to declare victory now. the issue war, sure. we won the issue debate here. if our democratic strategist right now, i would have my

people out there on tv, it would not be a question of who was going out this weekend. they would be blanketing the airwaves talking about how it is bad, not good politics, as senator -- tweeted, to go against democracy. just a clear victory, david jolly knows as well, folks at home had to understand, the mechanisms of congress are not as black as white and cut and dry as you and i would like them to be. just because a lot of people across the country rejected extremism, rejected the infiltration of the republican party into the doctors offices and people's bedrooms and homes, does not mean that the government that republicans in this country will know along with that. if you don't believe me look no farther than wisconsin, they've been voting for democrats and republicans in the state are like, we don't care. the state legislator is doing what they want to do. i'm telling you, democracy is on the line still. >> let's talk about the thing we haven't talked about.

we talked about extremist republicans, and many of whom were elected. they were election deniers. we're talking about moderate republicans, who might partner with modern democrats, a number of races in new york, where moderate democrats lost moderate republican. where are the progressives and the democratic party on this? where are the elected members of congress there are progressives? what influence they hold in the supertight congress that could go either way right now? >> i think they hold a lot of power, if you ask me. you look at the conditional caucus, is -- members of the cdc are members of the progressive caucus. folks at senator sanders and political orbit endorse, they did well. look at some early, it wasn't a tight race, a lot of money spent a supreme merely by aipac. she won her race in texas that senator sanders and his political apparatus endorsement

on. i think there's about six solidly i am a progressive candidate that is coming to congress. but again, it really all depends here, because i go back to the inflation reduction act, and before the inflation reduction act was passed, i remember being at the white house, and when build back better was build back better, there was conversation about breaking it up. there were progressive members of congress that sent, no, we will not vote for this. if you break it up, we'll never get the other pieces. they broke away from leadership. they broke away -- i am talking about leadership in the progressive caucus, and they did not vote for that bill. frankly, it failed at that moment, and the president went overseas not with a win, after he'd been to the hills twice. one could argue those progressives were right because as we sit here today, we have no care academy pieces, and the child tax credit is not codified into law. but they were not able to stop the eventual passing of the

bill that we know today that is the inflation reduction act. i want to say that they -- how they will get and can they keep their ranks together is the question, and something we should be watching. >> symone, thank you, your analysis is not standing and even more upstanding because we're waiting for these results from nevada. don't go far. . we are here for a reason, and that is that we are waiting and have been told that there would be a lot of ballots coming in from the state of nevada,. that is a very tight senate race, something tighter than expected. as a result, we are waiting for those, depending on how many come and what they look like, we make a decision about the control of the senate. so we're looking at the, but if nevada does not become the democratic state tonight, then georgia is overlooking. >> that's exactly right, because we're watching this key senate race in georgia, talking

about it all night, raphael warnock, herschel walker, could determine the fate of who controls the chamber because depending on what happens with nevada, we're going to be watching that race even closely. democrat incumbent senator raphael warnock, as i mentioned, is set to square off against herschel walker in that runoff december six. neither candidate across the 50% threshold to call that race. let's talk a little bit about georgia. let's bring in -- fall in this race, she joins us now. it's a safe to say, antonia, yes, the campaign a starter for the runoff but has not really started in earnest until we see what happens in nevada? it's probably not the message they would say publicly, but you've got to think that the two campaigns, they're waiting to see what happens in nevada before they kick it into fifth gear? >> you know, i think you're right. the campaigns would not answer that question publicly, but they are getting their events underway.

just tomorrow, i will be with senator raphael warnock and a bunch of supporters that morehouse. look, i think it will be different for both sides. if you're a democrat, i think simone mentioned this earlier, what happens in nevada may not change the calculation for democrats here in georgia, who may still want to fight like hell to get senator warnock back in that seat because having an extra democrat there would help with a whole sort of things democrats are going to want to work on. the question will be on the republican side. i think whom i traveled down to georgia and act as a circuit for herschel walker if control is not really an option anymore. who's going to come up here and donate massive sums of money so that he can hit warnock over the airwaves every day? those are some of the questions that i think republicans are going to be looking at, but either way, this is going to still be a tight fight, at least both campaigns are fired up and saying they will be hitting the ground running as hard as possible in the hopes

of making it that way. i just think if you're a democrat or republican, you're probably looking at nevada right now is slightly different set of expectations, and the warnock team has said to me that they feel like the wind is at their back, not just because of what we are watching tonight but also because they looked at the results on tuesday and saw that herschel walker underperformed every other statewide republican here in georgia. the red wave, nationally, it was a red wave that never was. they feel like these are all factors that make the environment really good for warnock, not to mention that if president trump announces that he is running for president on tuesday, that for a lot of the middle of the road moderates here, the type of people who like governor kemp, at the top of the ticket, but we're not comfortable voting for herschel walker to be their senator, those are the people to be going after aggressively, it by tuesday that's debarment we're in, ayman. >> it's incredible to think about the many dynamics factoring into this race, the

fact that one, we are watching right now, antonia, making eye contact with you and then making eye contact with kornacki to see if he has anything for us. you know about the refreshing. does the fact that there is not going to be -- there is also the reality, antonia, that voters got fired up, all the machinery went into action, people said this was the day to do it. voters went out and voted. they now has to rev it all up again. so part of the question is, who is the most motivated? who is the most incentified -- i understand how controlled the senate plays into the, but there are also core issues, abortion, economy, democracy, who is it? do you have a sense at the top into these voters and talking to the campaigns about what they believe is really going to get voters out there, not one time but the second time? >> i think when you're in a

state like georgia and also looking at an incumbent mike warner, a lot of the voters who are going to feel like it's on the shoulders to make something happen on december six, is black voters in the state. i think they already went through this. they went to a runoff once with one of the candidates made the same -- i think you can expect them to shoulder that burden again, maybe burden is the wrong word, some would see it as a burden, others as honor responsibility, but they are saying that they will come out and do their duty for their preferred candidate, once again. i think though, what we're sensing here is that if you are a herschel walker or a republican who has been on the fence here, that what we hear on tuesday from former president trump, those are the things that could all affect your level of enthusiasm. i think we now know, looking at the results coming across the country from tuesday, that democrats are a lot more fired up about issues about democracy

and post dobbs then maybe some pollsters and people give them credit for. i think on that side of the equation, there is still a commitment here. again, warnock's team feels confident because they are going up to a base that did this for him already. they did it once before. in many ways, they were primed by messaging that runoff was likely coming, so this has not been a huge shocker to people on the ground, alicia. >> my friend, nbc's antonia hylton. i hope the pack more than a carry on for the strip. thank you so much. that face. >> anyone who calls the georgia to cover political story he's to make sure that the pack more than a carry on. >> let's continue the conversation about georgia and the runoff election, let's bring into the conversation, cliff albright, cofounder of the black voters matter phoned. cliff, it's good to have you with us. lots to pick up their based on what antonio was telling us, the composition we've had. let me start by asking you what is on everyone's mind at this moment, the impact nevada would have on georgia because this could go either way.

some of us are speculating that if nevada does in fact go towards the democrats are gives democrats control of the senate, it will change the dynamic of the race in georgia, if donald trump decides to go ahead with his announcement to run for president on tuesday. that will change the dynamic of the race in georgia. give us your take, what are you watching for between now and the runoff, and what could have the biggest impact on the georgia runoff? >> good evening, ayman, thanks for having me. i was very concerned, listening to the discussion, this notion not from you but in the atmosphere that folks may not be as committed to georgia, depending on what happens in nevada. i can't express enough how much of a mistake it would be for folks to not invest at the appropriate levels in georgia in this runoff election. folks there in georgia, specifically the black community, feel very proud about what happened two years ago. they know that they helped save the country, not just for the

presidency available -- in turn, it allowed some of those legislative victories that you are talking about. we are very proud of that here. it would be very hurtful if we saw the because, georgia was not a deciding factor, folks just pulled away from georgia and did not invest into georgia or repair attention after many people saw brittani georgia for saving democracy a few years ago. i feel like it would not hurt, black turnout -- >> i wanted to correct i think, to be clear, ravel is not here, i did not want to misrepresent him, but the point he was making was largely republicans who have a distaste for herschel walker, which is understandable, will not put the energy into supporting herschel walker, if it's not decided control of the senate for a republican. i don't think he was saying that democrats would be less enthusiastic.

>> -- >> herschel walker leaves a path they set them up. if it's not about control the senate, then republicans may not go all in on herschel walker. >> i want to add that it would made it easier for democrats if they win nevada. if they win nevada, turnout will be high for democrats. republicans who go out there voting for brian kemp are going to be less motivated, because they don't want to vote for herschel walker, they want to vote for power in the senate, that has been taken off the table. >> cliff, go ahead -- >> i was going to say, i think i agree with what symone said a few minutes ago. you still have a healthy number of people, republicans across the country, but you still got a healthy number of people inside the state as well as outside the state that would want to see reverend warnock lose just because they want to see reverend warnock lose beyond the arguments about control and balance of power. it just really means a lot that we have the attention and support, because i actually

think that is one of the things that different shouldn't georgia from a couple of other states where we did not see this kind of turnout that we may have expected to see. what kind of investment and support goes on for groups on the ground, in addition to what support shows up for candidates, that matters. >> cliff, there was a lot of chatter in the run up to these elections in georgia about whether or not blackmon would come out and vote for stacey abrams, and it seems to me, as an outsider villager, that that conversation has somewhat been put to bed. i wonder if you agree? >> i think it's been put the puck. i think that there are certainly some issues because whenever you look at men and women across all races and ethnicities, there's always a gap. women tend to be more progressive, more likely to vote democratic. there's still a conversation that needs to be had about how we continue -- that gap happens to be smallest between races that have been. that gap happens to be small's with black voters.

blackmon come close to voting like black women do, more so than any other group. i hope the conversation has been put the bed. black men did show up in historic numbers. in fact, the largest increase in turnout, although we were the largest group in terms of turnout, but the largest increase from 18 to 20 or 2022 was actually amongst black man. i think that the fact that that conversation was happening in georgia, i saw an interesting exit poll, i think from nevada that showed that there was an even bigger gap between black women and black men in nevada. i would argue that is partly because we had a conversation taking place here in georgia that may not have been happening in some other states. >> cliff, can i ask you a retrospective question real quick. i am from georgia, my parents live in georgia, i went to high school in georgia. when i think about what georgia delivered for democrats in 2020, both the presidency of joe biden as well as the democratic control in the senate, have they've been repaid for that

victory with a legislative agenda that has been passed? do you feel that the promises made to voters in the state of georgia could get them now, to get raphael warnock elected i've been delivered upon to get them back out in the runoff? >> yeah, i think honestly, there are a couple of issues that we would love to see action on, black voters overall, see action on, and we haven't got it yet. voting rights is the obvious thing that is still out there. some type of police accountability, the george floyd act or something like that, that remains to be undone. let's be clear, this presidency, and i wasn't a huge biden supporter during the primaries but this presidency has achieved more and its first two years legislatively, arguably than any other century. if black voters noticed that, we noticed the child tax credit, we noticed the student debt cancellation. we noticed the infrastructure, so there's a variety of things going directly to benefit the backroom unity, and i think we

feel that has been -- there have been some results with that, the same way that young voters came out in large numbers because they saw action in terms of climate change, gun violence and student debt cancellation. it's amazing how policy can lead to toronto. >> absolutely, who would have thought the? you get things done, people will vote for you. go ahead -- >> cliff, real quick, it's jonathan in washington, i appreciate you saying don't forget about georgia with a runoff on december six. my question is, don't forget about georgia but how are you going to get people back to the polls on this number six? what is the plan to get people to have the same enthusiasm on december 6th that they had on election day? >> that's a great question, jonathan. we'll do the same things that we did a couple of years ago. we're going to reach out to voters. we had like 15 contacts per voter that we reached out to by text, by phone, by dornoch, but

digital, will do all of that, right? we'll do a lot of the same things we did two years ago. i'm glad you asked about the runoff because real quick, i want to point out, this is a different runoff than it was two years ago. two years ago, it was eight weeks. this is only a four-week runoff, that was unintentionally in the georgia -- where they shorted the runoff period, made it possible for registered new voters during the runoff period. all these things were done because of the historic turnout that we had two years ago, when we actually had 90% of the general election turnout come back out. we will do a lot of the same things, and the runoff, in particular, the history of the runoff as racist history. we won't go into it now. that was an intentional strategy to make this runoff process more difficult. >> cliff albright, thank you so much for being with us. next, congress woman susan wild is here. we'll discuss the role abortion rights played in the midterms. stay with us. ay with us breakthrough heartburn... means your heartburn treatment is broken. try zegerid otc.

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paper and democratic success in the midterms. nbc exit poll showed that abortion was a top issue for 27% of voters. five states had abortion measures directly on the ballot. in michigan, vermont, california, voters enshrined abortion rights into state constitutions. in kentucky in montana, voters rejected measures that would have further restricted access, showing that abortion can still

be a winning issue, even in conservative states. joining us now to discuss, congress woman susan wild of pennsylvania, who won reelection for house seat in the state's seventh district. congresswoman, thank you so much are being with us. there was all this -- in advance of the election, about whether or not voters forgot about dobbs simply because it happened a few months prior. clearly, they have not. >> good evening, alicia and thank you for having me. clearly, they have not, but let me be perfectly clear, this race, mine in pennsylvania seven was not one on a single issue, this is not a single issue district and i will tell you that there is no purple district, meaning evenly divided between republicans and democrats that is one on a single issue. this is one on a multitude of issues, everything from medicare and social security preservation --

we absolutely killed on the field, but most importantly, you have to keep in mind the work that has been done in these districts for the last two or four years in my case. he shot out to my district team, to my field team, so yes, the thought decision was very motivational, but for young people and by the way, for older women, who had experience life before roe. it was not the only thing. >> i think that bore out across states that people were concerned about a multitude of issues and were able to hold them all at once. i do wonder given the results of this election, what you think it means for democrats governing agenda? >> i think what it means is that we continue to focus on issues that are really, really important to most americans, and that means going back as far as 2018, health care, social security, medicare,

higher education and making it more affordable for everyone. i don't just mean college. it means making sure that we are focusing on a return to made in the usa. these are winning issues. they were winning issues for me, and they are winning issues for all democrats. >> it's ali here, where did this conversation about democracy come in when you are talking to people? it seems that there was an undercurrent or they that did motivate a lot of voters because they were tired of hearing republicans carry on about the big lie, but did anyone tell you about that? we obviously know inflation was a major issue, abortion was a major issue, was -- lying about election stuff when you talk about constituents? >> great question, and let me say as i said at the start of this, we're not a single issue district. i definitely heard about the preservation of democracy. i definitely heard from people who were still incredibly

concerned about what happened on general six, and it was one of several issues that actually captivated the top three or four issues in my district. i would say that it probably rank as the second most often heard about thing, but the first, quite honestly, ali, was people talking about taking away rights. it was not necessarily reproductive, it was concerns about people who thought about how the dobbs decision was just the beginning of losing all kinds of rights. >> when we see does bell questions, five of them now plus kansas and august, all of them ended up with people supporting abortion rights regardless of who push for that question, because that is right. in kansas, they did that. in montana, they did a. in kentucky, they did that. they otherwise voted republican, by the way. but how about, you don't as merits? congresswoman, good to see you, thanks for being here, sharing

with us with that campaign felt like on the ground to you. >> you know what i would say quickly, remember after the dobbs decision, one of the interesting points came out in the reporting if you will was donald trump saying that he thought the dobbs decision was good to have a negative impact on republicans in the midterms. as interesting as we have been analyzing all of the trump debate and trumpism, it was interesting that the reporting at the time suggested that he was aware, or he had the insight to suggest that, this would be problematic for republicans. when you talk to congressman while, the the ballots passed to protect or uphold reproductive rights, it was right. it was a factor, undoubtedly, regardless of what the polling said, reproductive rights and the sense that people had that they're ready to be taking away -- >> the right was the important thing. >> the right was the important thing and what this meant for other rights on the road based on the decision --

this could open the door for same sex marriage, it all played out as many people initially expected on day one. >> this isn't a surprise, california's right to abortion, does numbers are expected. for months, evening, no surprise, it will allow. what else we got, michigan, when you look at the results of michigan in the statewide elections, you can see that that was going to go the way that it would go. take a look at this one, montana, the question was not abortion rights lead, it was the other side, the referendum question 1:31 was to require care for infants born alive. >> this is the one you and i talked about on election night. >> 53 to 47. look at kentucky, to remove the right to abortion, no one is more surprise to me that kentucky had the right to abortion in their constitution. 52% voted no to. the two that we're about removing rights failed. >> it's interesting to me, we're sitting here, waiting for the results to come out nevada, that is a state where voters have already decided to protect

the right to a state level, so i will be very interested to see, because we always take these exit polls with a grain of salt, you have the way a few months to actually get the data that you need, but the extent to which that played into this race, especially because the governor's race potentially is going to have gone a different way than the senate race. where voters sort of saying on the economy, and putting this at the feet of the governor, on some of these issues that i perceived to be federal issues, i am placing my vote -- >> an interesting point. sometimes you go to these places, you register what the issue is. -- losing the governorship in nevada is directly tied to nevada's economy, which is directly tied to covid, which is directly tied to the fact that no one suffered more than nevada in the shutdown of travel and conventions. it was its own issue, its own thing. it's one of those instances where unlike a lot of other states, you can't read as much into him, the only democratic

governor to lose a seat. you can read less. you know why it happened. >> for all of our talk about the nationalization of elections, there are still races like this where, yeah, there are nuances to it. >> i want to go back to this quickly. you talked about the power of the corner union innovator. we were talking about this earlier with curing it. it seems like they are trying to make sure that they are calling and making sure that their votes are being counted and tallied properly. >> remember, this is a state, i said it once and will say again, operatives told me you either win by two or you lose by one, and so they had known that this is going to come down to very small margins. so they are treating a accordingly. >> we're still here, and we're not going anywhere because you're about to see a scene 12 seconds, and it's actually a's life, because a new hour of election coverage begins right now. now.